NEW @MoodysInvSvc lowers UK sovereign rating outlook to negative because of “heightened unpredictability in policy making” and “risks to UKs debt affordability and a sustained weakening in policy credibility”
How long does it take Bojo to get home? Slothful and slapdash as always.
With any luck, by the time he lands he will be told he can't win this.
For the sake of this country, we can only hope. Though I am still massively concerned that a number of cabinet members think he can waltz back in, no harm done..
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Away and play with a train set. You've said that about two or twenty times today already.
NEW @MoodysInvSvc lowers UK sovereign rating outlook to negative because of “heightened unpredictability in policy making” and “risks to UKs debt affordability and a sustained weakening in policy credibility”
Sunak needs a big majority of MPs and buy off Bozo with a big Ukraine related role - special envoy or some such, give him something to do that he is actually passable at. Then can we please have a couple boring months of stable government with occasional Mark Francois baiting
A first class idea. (They should check some chinless wonders so they can tuck you into an out-of-the-way cubicle somewhere in Downing St.)
Boris could do the Lord's work (in theory) touring Europe, America, all over barnstorming for UKR support. Do it right, and he could end up on triumphant visit to Borisgrad (Johnson'sk Oblast) someday.
I think we need to know how many members don't have email addresses and will not be able to vote. Just seen The Times suggest it is ca. 20k members, a vast majority of those would be in the Boris camp IMO.
There are going to be some strongly worded letters of complaint about this penned to the Times & Telegraph.
Given the current state of the (privatised) postal service, they should arrive in a month or so.
How long does it take Bojo to get home? Slothful and slapdash as always.
With any luck, by the time he lands he will be told he can't win this.
For the sake of this country, we can only hope. Though I am still massively concerned that a number of cabinet members think he can waltz back in, no harm done..
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Salmond is almost entirely irrelevant right now. He could stand 59 candidates and might not make a difference in a single seat.
Oh he could, if he splits the Nationalist vote. If the SC rules against an independence referendum and Sturgeon rules out UDI that is very possible
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Salmond is almost entirely irrelevant right now. He could stand 59 candidates and might not make a difference in a single seat.
Oh he could, if he splits the Nationalist vote. If the SC rules against an independence referendum and Sturgeon rules out UDI that is very possible
Anything's "possible" but Salmond is an irrelevance and I predict he'll remain so, whatever happens in the Supreme Court
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Away and play with a train set. You've said that about two or twenty times today already.
John Penrose just said that Brenda from Bristol said "Oh No. Not another one!" when Gordon Brown called an election. It's a minor slip. But psychologically indicative of how some Tories think. It's always someone else's fault.
Huge blow for Rishi as Matt Hancock has publicly endorsed Sunak
Perversely I see that as good news. If Hancock is backing him it's presumably because he's going to win. Although Hancock might have misjudged it........
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
Remember during the week we had the 'deal is done' stuff. Penny knows she is getting the FO, shes there to get to 100 'if needed' to ensure they can squeeze Boris out, the party has basically decided its Rishi/Hunt/Penny with Shapps as cushion warmer for the Saj and everything now is about stopping/seeing off the ERG/Boris. If it ends with some of them hiving off to some new Farage venture so much the better Rishi will say
Huge blow for Rishi as Matt Hancock has publicly endorsed Sunak
Perversely I see that as good news. If Hancock is backing him it's presumably because he's going to win. Although Hancock might have misjudged it........
Yeah, maybe, it was just cheap shot at Hancock really. There are worse MPs if I'm honest.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
I think we need to know how many members don't have email addresses and will not be able to vote. Just seen The Times suggest it is ca. 20k members, a vast majority of those would be in the Boris camp IMO.
Really useful insight on this, thanks.
BUT - mental that those members who are not easily impersonated/are actually the pet cat/are Boris with 2000 gmail accounts are the ones being disenfranchised.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
There is no case for Johnson under any circumstances
He can be PM again when hell freezes over.
Speaking of hell freezing over: Charles Moore has written something I agree with in tomorrow's Telegraph:
"I would suggest it is too soon. There are second-order reasons why this is so – the imminent proceedings of the Commons Standards and Privileges Committee which is desperate to suspend him for allegedly misleading the House, the explosion of rage from numerous quarters which would almost paralyse public life if he were back in Downing Street."
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
John Penrose just said that Brenda from Bristol said "Oh No. Not another one!" when Gordon Brown called an election. It's a minor slip. But psychologically indicative of how some Tories think. It's always someone else's fault.
Or old working class women all look the same. Brenda==Gillian Duffy in his eyes.
John Penrose just said that Brenda from Bristol said "Oh No. Not another one!" when Gordon Brown called an election. It's a minor slip. But psychologically indicative of how some Tories think. It's always someone else's fault.
Or old working class women all look the same. Brenda==Gillian Duffy in his eyes.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
"serious political website"
The problem with this is we can only reflect actual politics. That's why there isn't a Scottish version of PB - it's all too serious up here. And everyone is very angry.
John Penrose just said that Brenda from Bristol said "Oh No. Not another one!" when Gordon Brown called an election. It's a minor slip. But psychologically indicative of how some Tories think. It's always someone else's fault.
Or old working class women all look the same. Brenda==Gillian Duffy in his eyes.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
Wasn't until Victorian era that you could look forward to going to bed with a good Trollope.
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
A moron speaks: Boris’s first time in office was a great success, shamefully curtailed. Normies: What the absolute fuck? Moron (who is an MP): Why do you hate so much? Voter: Let me introduce you to the concept of a mirror.
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
He could slip on to the role easily. Or become tied up pretty soon.
Vox pops in Bridgend on ITV Wales News was overwhelmingly Johnson. Interviewees were very skeptical of Labour and Starmer in particular.
I may have read this all wrong and despite the scandals and the desperate economic situation, Johnson might pull another five years off against the run of play.
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
LOL.
The majority of members couldn't give a feck. Their hero has been traduced by the remainer elite. That's all the investigation is to them. Just another plot to stop their man.
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
The hustings are going to be dreadful for him and the poll after
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I think we need to know how many members don't have email addresses and will not be able to vote. Just seen The Times suggest it is ca. 20k members, a vast majority of those would be in the Boris camp IMO.
Really useful insight on this, thanks.
BUT - mental that those members who are not easily impersonated/are actually the pet cat/are Boris with 2000 gmail accounts are the ones being disenfranchised.
If you fancy a nightmare scenario, imagine the Tory members' online vote finishes with both candidates within a few hundred votes of each other. 😳
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Sunak will be PM Monday evening.
The other interesting thing is the distinct lack of backing from Boris's former chums in the media.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
Wasn't until Victorian era that you could look forward to going to bed with a good Trollope.
Quite. I've worked my way through the Barchester Chronicles and the Pallisers. Tonight, might go for a nice battleship technical history, though.
Vox pops in Bridgend on ITV Wales News was overwhelmingly Johnson. Interviewees were very skeptical of Labour and Starmer in particular.
I may have read this all wrong and despite the scandals and the desperate economic situation, Johnson might pull another five years off against the run of play.
Madness!
Yeah. I get that too. A Boris actually having to deal with an economic crisis, rather than bullshitting it away would be fun.
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Sunak will be PM Monday evening.
Nice ring to it.
I feel for those who lost out on a 250-1 bet because of the short tragi-comic tenure of Liz Truss. Maybe sue the Conservative membership in a class action?
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
I think we need to know how many members don't have email addresses and will not be able to vote. Just seen The Times suggest it is ca. 20k members, a vast majority of those would be in the Boris camp IMO.
Really useful insight on this, thanks.
BUT - mental that those members who are not easily impersonated/are actually the pet cat/are Boris with 2000 gmail accounts are the ones being disenfranchised.
If you fancy a nightmare scenario, imagine the Tory members' online vote finishes with both candidates within a few hundred votes of each other. 😳
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Sunak will be PM Monday evening.
The other interesting thing is the distinct lack of backing from Boris's former chums in the media.
Exactly - you can feel the way things are going, there are clues everywhere.
Yes, if Johnson gets 100, he could probably win. But he’ll have such opposition within the party hierarchy, he’ll be presented with a list of people who won’t work with him and a list of those who will leave the party. He may be presented with details of other stuff, so far only rumoured deep on the internet, that he wouldn’t want made public. There are dozens of levers the party will be able to bring to bear, and he’ll understand them all too well. He won’t run.
I've got a feeling Boris won't run. It will be a repeat of 2016 when he'll judge that the mood of the parliamentary party isn't behind him and bow out.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
Vox pops in Bridgend on ITV Wales News was overwhelmingly Johnson. Interviewees were very skeptical of Labour and Starmer in particular.
I may have read this all wrong and despite the scandals and the desperate economic situation, Johnson might pull another five years off against the run of play.
Madness!
The media want the clown and these VOX pops are hardly a weighed sample of the public .
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Sunak will be PM Monday evening.
Intense pressure - lol, what they gonna do, appeal to his innate decency and propriety?
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
They had Gillray though:
One of his milder efforts.
Worth noting that Gillray was switch-hitter. Lampooned Tories, then Whigs. (Or was it other way around?)
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Sunak will be PM Monday evening.
The other interesting thing is the distinct lack of backing from Boris's former chums in the media.
Exactly - you can feel the way things are going, there are clues everywhere.
Yes, if Johnson gets 100, he could probably win. But he’ll have such opposition within the party hierarchy, he’ll be presented with a list of people who won’t work with him and a list of those who will leave the party. He may be presented with details of other stuff, so far only rumoured deep on the internet, that he wouldn’t want made public. There are dozens of levers the party will be able to bring to bear, and he’ll understand them all too well. He won’t run.
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 7h Please fucking spare me the journos chatting to people on a high street in the early afternoon on a weekday and then eagerly reporting back the super scientific results.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
They had Gillray though:
One of his milder efforts.
Worth noting that Gillray was switch-hitter. Lampooned Tories, then Whigs. (Or was it other way around?)
Tbf it was just the first one I could quickly find.
Vox pops in Bridgend on ITV Wales News was overwhelmingly Johnson. Interviewees were very skeptical of Labour and Starmer in particular.
I may have read this all wrong and despite the scandals and the desperate economic situation, Johnson might pull another five years off against the run of play.
Madness!
Vox pops do not a properly conducted survey make. They probably went out on the streets looking for interviewees in the middle of the day, and found an assortment of confused elderly people and dangerous imbeciles wandering about, who are amongst Johnson's few remaining supporters. How quickly we forget that, by the time he was thrown out, his ratings weren't very much better than Truss's.
For any Tory leader to win the next election, they are going to need to claw back the vast bulk of the huge flow of voters whose predilections have now swung directly from Conservative to Labour - and we've not even had most of the pain from the latest economic shockwave yet. The mortgage interest rate rises feeding through, the tax rises, the spending cuts, the collapsing public services. Basically, unless, in a shock plot twist, Keir Starmer is revealed quite literally to be Satan, the Tories are headed for opposition. The only question is how serious their defeat will be.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
They had Gillray though:
One of his milder efforts.
Worth noting that Gillray was switch-hitter. Lampooned Tories, then Whigs. (Or was it other way around?)
Seem to be a lot of depictions of Johnson in that cartoon.
Bozo has serious business to attend to on the flight home. Such as trying to entice one of the flight attendants to join him in the lav while Nut-Nut is asleep.
I doubt another person could fit in the toilet with that fat bastard
Just reflecting, before I go off to bed with a nice book, on the degree to which politics has changed in the UK in recent years that that sort of comment can be made on a serious political website without raising much in the way of eyebrows (although, admittedly, they didn't have the internet in the Georgian and Regency eras).
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Sunak will be PM Monday evening.
Intense pressure - lol, what they gonna do, appeal to his innate decency and propriety?
They have lots of ways. Johnson is under investigation, remember? And the other potential scandals widely rumoured - referred to by Crerar on the politics show in the week - are another lever. As is Hunt’s ability to resign.
I did think there was a small chance Penny might make it through - if there’s a member ballot between her and Sunak. But it’s clear she’s only getting support from her closest friends, and she won’t win from so far behind in the MPs stakes. Barring a surprise en masse move of hundreds of MPs over the weekend, Sunak has it in the bag.
It does look like most of the MPs are going to put Rishi as far ahead as they can. Penny’s poor showing is disappointing, but she’ll throw her support behind Rishi on Monday morning and get a top job out of it.
It doesn't matter how far ahead Sunak is unless Johnson fails to get 100.
I’m not convinced this is a shoe in for Johnson if he makes the final two .
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
It’s Sunak, trust me. Brady and co knew that when they announced the vote; the Cabinet knew that when they met at the Carlton Club. Johnson may not make the hundred, and if he does there will be the most intense pressure for him to withdraw and play ball.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Sunak will be PM Monday evening.
I think that's right.
I really hope it is right, Johnson as PM is 100% unacceptable
I supported Brexit and voted Con at a GE for the first time in 2019 so ought to be the sort of person who would welcome person Boris back but the thought fills me with dread. I don't have anything against Boris personally and can understand why some people would welcome him back but now is not the right time.
The Tories need to learn the lesson from the US Democrats. The Dems thought that Roe vs Wade would unlock the midterms but they are now starting to get crushed on inflation and crime:
The lesson is that fighting the culture wars (whether from the left or right) can work when the economy is going well but when the economy is bad that is only thing that matters (see Maslow's hierarchy of needs).
In my view, the economy is the only thing that matters until the election and the only Tory who has the credibility to take the fight to Labour is Rishi.
Comments
This\ might be OK. Used to have one like it when I was about 4.
Boris could do the Lord's work (in theory) touring Europe, America, all over barnstorming for UKR support. Do it right, and he could end up on triumphant visit to Borisgrad (Johnson'sk Oblast) someday.
Given the current state of the (privatised) postal service, they should arrive in a month or so.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583549915355312129?s=20&t=I2IyINN6z_T2o5Eq7JKj9A
It's a minor slip. But psychologically indicative of how some Tories think.
It's always someone else's fault.
Both can win.
Fair enough.
BUT - mental that those members who are not easily impersonated/are actually the pet cat/are Boris with 2000 gmail accounts are the ones being disenfranchised.
His position as Committee chair is irrelevant to a party leadership contest.
"I would suggest it is too soon. There are second-order reasons why this is so – the imminent proceedings of the Commons Standards and Privileges Committee which is desperate to suspend him for allegedly misleading the House, the explosion of rage from numerous quarters which would almost paralyse public life if he were back in Downing Street."
I think the fact he’s still under investigation could be a big factor .
The problem with this is we can only reflect actual politics. That's why there isn't a Scottish version of PB - it's all too serious up here. And everyone is very angry.
It’s obvious Sunak will top the MPs poll by miles. The Tories - as has everyone else - understand that Truss’s problem was not being the MPs’ choice. They won’t make that mistake again. All Brady’s comments about the member stage were carefully worded, hedged to indicate it may or may not happen, and they are relaxed about the logistics and practical problems because it’s not going to happen.
Sunak will be PM Monday evening.
Or become tied up pretty soon.
I may have read this all wrong and despite the scandals and the desperate economic situation, Johnson might pull another five years off against the run of play.
Madness!
@Tobias_Ellwood
The free mkt experiment is over - it’s been a low point in our Party’s great history.
The reset begins.
Time for centrist, stable, fiscally responsible Government offering credible domestic & international leadership.
Honoured to be the 100th Tory MP to support #Ready4Rishi
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1583560922139791361
The majority of members couldn't give a feck. Their hero has been traduced by the remainer elite. That's all the investigation is to them. Just another plot to stop their man.
I salute you sir for sheer bravado.
“A Republican majority in the Senate will focus its oversight on ensuring timely delivery of needed weapons and greater allied assistance to Ukraine...”
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1583484713712640000
I get that too.
A Boris actually having to deal with an economic crisis, rather than bullshitting it away would be fun.
I feel for those who lost out on a 250-1 bet because of the short tragi-comic tenure of Liz Truss. Maybe sue the Conservative membership in a class action?
But not as odd as JRM's "Boris or Bust". That's going to get thrown back at him when Boris loses.
Yes, if Johnson gets 100, he could probably win. But he’ll have such opposition within the party hierarchy, he’ll be presented with a list of people who won’t work with him and a list of those who will leave the party. He may be presented with details of other stuff, so far only rumoured deep on the internet, that he wouldn’t want made public. There are dozens of levers the party will be able to bring to bear, and he’ll understand them all too well. He won’t run.
My arse.
Somewhat similar dynamic Johnson, Trump on same issue.
Worth noting that Gillray was switch-hitter. Lampooned Tories, then Whigs. (Or was it other way around?)
Where is "deep on the internet"?
Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
·
7h
Please fucking spare me the journos chatting to people on a high street in the early afternoon on a weekday and then eagerly reporting back the super scientific results.
For any Tory leader to win the next election, they are going to need to claw back the vast bulk of the huge flow of voters whose predilections have now swung directly from Conservative to Labour - and we've not even had most of the pain from the latest economic shockwave yet. The mortgage interest rate rises feeding through, the tax rises, the spending cuts, the collapsing public services. Basically, unless, in a shock plot twist, Keir Starmer is revealed quite literally to be Satan, the Tories are headed for opposition. The only question is how serious their defeat will be.
I did think there was a small chance Penny might make it through - if there’s a member ballot between her and Sunak. But it’s clear she’s only getting support from her closest friends, and she won’t win from so far behind in the MPs stakes. Barring a surprise en masse move of hundreds of MPs over the weekend, Sunak has it in the bag.
The Tories need to learn the lesson from the US Democrats. The Dems thought that Roe vs Wade would unlock the midterms but they are now starting to get crushed on inflation and crime:
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2022/10/21/wave-watch-is-the-bottom-falling-out-for-democrats-n2614836
The lesson is that fighting the culture wars (whether from the left or right) can work when the economy is going well but when the economy is bad that is only thing that matters (see Maslow's hierarchy of needs).
In my view, the economy is the only thing that matters until the election and the only Tory who has the credibility to take the fight to Labour is Rishi.
I'd vote for him (not that I can)