Kind of matches what I think about Rishi to be Frank.
I think I've cast my last Tory vote. If the Tories won't stand up for free markets and aspiration, hopefully Davey's party will.
Hahahahahahahaha!
The Lib Dem platform is basically electoral reform, electoral reform, electoral reform, nimbyism, and electoral reform. With a bit of nimbyism, and perhaps some residual Europhilia. I remain to be convinced that the writings of Milton Friedman figure particularly highly on their book club list.
There’s rather more to it than that, as you would have seen during coalition, but being as we are in à FPTP system where minor parties generally have no opportunity to enact meaningful policy the Lib Dems have to scrap for every seat they can get, and hope for a more democratic system some day.
From a systems thinking point of view you can make an argument that the current system we have for apportioning power (FPTP) is suboptimal and produces the negative outcomes we all bemoan in these comment pages as the rational actors in the system play the game they find themselves in. The jolly good chaps of the post war era are gone and we are now seeing how FPTP works unchecked by moral values. So electoral reform is the prerequisite for making the first steps to systematically sort our problems. (And of course it would help smaller parties, so yes there is self interest too)
No electoral system is perfect and electoral reform would not solve all out our political problems. But I'd agree it would be a good start.
PR will cement centralist social democracy which will lead to bankruptcy. It will also lead to a democractic deficit when people refuse to vote because they would prefer to know what they are actually voting for rather than cast a vote and then politicians in smoky rooms decide what they voted for and then claim a mandate for it they never had. I cite the 2010 to 2015 years. I voted tory.....if I knew what the coalition would decide they had a mandate for I would have voted against
I voted hoping for a coalition. I had no way of indicating that as my preference sadly.
But my point wasnt the precise form the electoral reform takes, but that plenty of improvements could be made in that sphere. I'd be happy with some form of PR but there are other matters too. The Tories have not been above making changes.
If I had known it would have been a ld/con coalition and what they would choose I would have either voted differently or not bothered. Indeed I haven't voted since despite having voted in every general and local election up to that point. The coalition showed me my vote is worthless. They took it and counted as a mandate despite the fact I despised everything they did. If they had stood on what they planned to do my vote would have been for anyone but them
The Coalition looks like a bastion of sense and good governance versus what the country's had in the 7 years since. Those halcyon days of Dave and Nick in the rose garden....
Kind of matches what I think about Rishi to be Frank.
I think I've cast my last Tory vote. If the Tories won't stand up for free markets and aspiration, hopefully Davey's party will.
Hahahahahahahaha!
The Lib Dem platform is basically electoral reform, electoral reform, electoral reform, nimbyism, and electoral reform. With a bit of nimbyism, and perhaps some residual Europhilia. I remain to be convinced that the writings of Milton Friedman figure particularly highly on their book club list.
There’s rather more to it than that, as you would have seen during coalition, but being as we are in à FPTP system where minor parties generally have no opportunity to enact meaningful policy the Lib Dems have to scrap for every seat they can get, and hope for a more democratic system some day.
From a systems thinking point of view you can make an argument that the current system we have for apportioning power (FPTP) is suboptimal and produces the negative outcomes we all bemoan in these comment pages as the rational actors in the system play the game they find themselves in. The jolly good chaps of the post war era are gone and we are now seeing how FPTP works unchecked by moral values. So electoral reform is the prerequisite for making the first steps to systematically sort our problems. (And of course it would help smaller parties, so yes there is self interest too)
No electoral system is perfect and electoral reform would not solve all out our political problems. But I'd agree it would be a good start.
PR will cement centralist social democracy which will lead to bankruptcy. It will also lead to a democractic deficit when people refuse to vote because they would prefer to know what they are actually voting for rather than cast a vote and then politicians in smoky rooms decide what they voted for and then claim a mandate for it they never had. I cite the 2010 to 2015 years. I voted tory.....if I knew what the coalition would decide they had a mandate for I would have voted against
I voted hoping for a coalition. I had no way of indicating that as my preference sadly.
But my point wasnt the precise form the electoral reform takes, but that plenty of improvements could be made in that sphere. I'd be happy with some form of PR but there are other matters too. The Tories have not been above making changes.
If I had known it would have been a ld/con coalition and what they would choose I would have either voted differently or not bothered. Indeed I haven't voted since despite having voted in every general and local election up to that point. The coalition showed me my vote is worthless. They took it and counted as a mandate despite the fact I despised everything they did. If they had stood on what they planned to do my vote would have been for anyone but them
The Coalition looks like a bastion of sense and good governance versus what the country's had in the 7 years since. Those halcyon days of Dave and Nick in the rose garden....
Kind of matches what I think about Rishi to be Frank.
I think I've cast my last Tory vote. If the Tories won't stand up for free markets and aspiration, hopefully Davey's party will.
Hahahahahahahaha!
The Lib Dem platform is basically electoral reform, electoral reform, electoral reform, nimbyism, and electoral reform. With a bit of nimbyism, and perhaps some residual Europhilia. I remain to be convinced that the writings of Milton Friedman figure particularly highly on their book club list.
There’s rather more to it than that, as you would have seen during coalition, but being as we are in à FPTP system where minor parties generally have no opportunity to enact meaningful policy the Lib Dems have to scrap for every seat they can get, and hope for a more democratic system some day.
From a systems thinking point of view you can make an argument that the current system we have for apportioning power (FPTP) is suboptimal and produces the negative outcomes we all bemoan in these comment pages as the rational actors in the system play the game they find themselves in. The jolly good chaps of the post war era are gone and we are now seeing how FPTP works unchecked by moral values. So electoral reform is the prerequisite for making the first steps to systematically sort our problems. (And of course it would help smaller parties, so yes there is self interest too)
No electoral system is perfect and electoral reform would not solve all out our political problems. But I'd agree it would be a good start.
PR will cement centralist social democracy which will lead to bankruptcy. It will also lead to a democractic deficit when people refuse to vote because they would prefer to know what they are actually voting for rather than cast a vote and then politicians in smoky rooms decide what they voted for and then claim a mandate for it they never had. I cite the 2010 to 2015 years. I voted tory.....if I knew what the coalition would decide they had a mandate for I would have voted against
I voted hoping for a coalition. I had no way of indicating that as my preference sadly.
But my point wasnt the precise form the electoral reform takes, but that plenty of improvements could be made in that sphere. I'd be happy with some form of PR but there are other matters too. The Tories have not been above making changes.
If I had known it would have been a ld/con coalition and what they would choose I would have either voted differently or not bothered. Indeed I haven't voted since despite having voted in every general and local election up to that point. The coalition showed me my vote is worthless. They took it and counted as a mandate despite the fact I despised everything they did. If they had stood on what they planned to do my vote would have been for anyone but them
The Coalition looks like a bastion of sense and good governance versus what the country's had in the 7 years since. Those halcyon days of Dave and Nick in the rose garden....
Off-topic: how will Just Stop Oil respond to the deaths on the M20 today, in which the delay caused to ambulance response may have been a contributory factor?
Extinction Rebellion have previously justified obstructing patients on their way to surgery in hospital by explaining, "We're sorry, but there's a war on", i.e. it's our planet we're fighting for, plebface.
"If, for example, it would somehow serve our interests to throw sulphuric acid in a child's face - are you prepared to do that?"
It can't be Johnson if the Tories want stability for both themselves and the country. Veteran MP Roger Gale has already said he would resign the whip if Johnson wins, and there could be others.
Still reeling from Wallace's intervention. What on earth was he thinking? Can so many people truly think a return to what precipitated this crisis is a solution?
Well he really doesn't like Sunak (because of perceived lack of support of Ukraine)...but leaning into to idea of PM Boris, Die Harder, absolutely bonkers.
Might it be that Wallace is simply picking the candidate who he thinks will do best by his department? Boris backed him on upping the defence budget and is quite keen on all that, Sunak is seen as being prepared to keep defence spending at its most minimal level, though he could reasonably argue he's changed his mind post-Ukraine.
He should think about the country. Can we afford what he wants even at the level promised? I doubt it.
As Pitt the Elder - and also Pitt the Younger - famously said (I think) "Can we afford not to do it?"
Kind of matches what I think about Rishi to be Frank.
I think I've cast my last Tory vote. If the Tories won't stand up for free markets and aspiration, hopefully Davey's party will.
Hahahahahahahaha!
The Lib Dem platform is basically electoral reform, electoral reform, electoral reform, nimbyism, and electoral reform. With a bit of nimbyism, and perhaps some residual Europhilia. I remain to be convinced that the writings of Milton Friedman figure particularly highly on their book club list.
There’s rather more to it than that, as you would have seen during coalition, but being as we are in à FPTP system where minor parties generally have no opportunity to enact meaningful policy the Lib Dems have to scrap for every seat they can get, and hope for a more democratic system some day.
From a systems thinking point of view you can make an argument that the current system we have for apportioning power (FPTP) is suboptimal and produces the negative outcomes we all bemoan in these comment pages as the rational actors in the system play the game they find themselves in. The jolly good chaps of the post war era are gone and we are now seeing how FPTP works unchecked by moral values. So electoral reform is the prerequisite for making the first steps to systematically sort our problems. (And of course it would help smaller parties, so yes there is self interest too)
PR will not make a blind bit of difference to the problems we face. In fact it will just add a whole layer of new problems on top.
Allison Pearson @AllisonPearson · 2h Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?
Labour appears to be much stronger now and could well be competitive in such seats.
A very strong anti-Tory tactical vote will return LD MPs in seats where the party is the obvious second placed challenger to the Conservative incumbent - but, owing to the extreme damage caused by the Coalition, there are a lot fewer of those constituencies about than there used to be. I'd imagine that you probably wouldn't need to work your way that far down the list of Tory-facing LD targets before you started to find ones where the yellows were third behind Labour, and you would've thought that most of those would indeed be far more likely to turn red.
But there are certain seats - Wimbledon comes to mind - where Labour is likely to have jumped from 3rd to 1st place. Relying on the 2019 result alone without taking account of recent poll movements - and the particular factors at play back in 2019 - would make little sense. Morover, there are seats such as Finchley & Golders Green and Cities of London & Westminster where the results in 2019 were pretty obvious aberrations in that Labour's 3rd place was a result of the LD candidates being prominent Labour defectors, the Anti- Semitism row and a strong anti-Corbyn feeling. In both seats Labour will be the obvious anti- Tory challenger in 2023/2024.
There’s been a real lack of the more higher quality pollsters reporting over the last few days which can skew that . Even so their chances have improved but it’s still on a knife edge .
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
Good morning all. A surprising amount of negativity about Boris' bid in the right-wing press this morning. I get the impression that after the initial spurt of excitement, some on the right are asking themselves about the wisdom of this. Of particular note is that his old chum and mentor, Charles Moore, has written a Daily Tel op ed saying that this is not the right time for Boris to make a comeback. I agree and suggested yesterday that he should wait until the tories lose the next GE and then ride to their rescue if he wants to.
"I'm up for it" is also the stupidest thing to have said. He should have come up with a statesmanlike comment that put Britain's acute needs, not his own insalubrious ego, first. But this typifies the man.
This country cannot take another 2 years of that man's clowning. We need a serious politician for serious times. If that can't be Starmer yet then we need Sunak to steady the ship. For all our sakes.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Worth reading the Paul Brand piece about Boris and the Privileges Committee. The report is that the evidence is 'so damning' that he could be gone by Christmas.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
Tory dirty tricks row! I’m told some MPs are being threatened with de-selection by their associations if they don’t vote for Boris Johnson in leadership contest!
Tory dirty tricks row! I’m told some MPs are being threatened with de-selection by their associations if they don’t vote for Boris Johnson in leadership contest!
And this is just the foretaste of what a Boris return would mean. He will exact revenge on all those who brought about his downfall because that is the kind of person he is. The party will become riven with hatred and division. Mutinees will break out on a regular basis. He will lose all authority amongst his parliamentary party and eventually they will probably do the unthinkable and vote down the Government.
It will be like Trump time in Britain. Is that really what this country needs right now?
The problem is whether the right can stomach Rishi Sunak. He needs to offer them something, probably a lot. He could do with cleaving one of their own, perhaps through offering one of the high offices of state.
Otherwise we are going to see a steadying hand from Sunak, which the country needs, undermined, wrecked even, by the nutters on the right.
I am inclined also to point out to them that they had their chance and blew it by selecting Liz Truss.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
What a dickish thing to say. Not merely because it's just plain rude and unnecessary but because it's so patently wrong.
I grew up in a Conservative household, surrounded by members one of whom was a senior figure. And I still have many friends in the party who are members.
But aside from that it's a remarkable fallacy to think that someone with nous cannot bracket out their own beliefs in order to give as objective an analysis as possible. In this case particularly so since I am reflecting what wise heads within the Conservative Party, such as Michael Howard, William Hague and even Charles Moore, are saying.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Thank you. Not quite sure what went wrong with CR in that moment of madness. Maybe he was hacked. Quite a bizarre post.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
What a dickish thing to say. Not merely because it's just plain rude and unnecessary but because it's so patently wrong.
I grew up in a Conservative household, surrounded by members one of whom was a senior figure. And I still have many friends in the party who are members.
But aside from that it's a remarkable fallacy to think that someone with nous cannot bracket out their own beliefs in order to give as objective an analysis as possible. In this case particularly so since I am reflecting what wise heads within the Conservative Party, such as Michael Howard, William Hague and even Charles Moore, are saying.
I would listen to the counsel of all those key Conservatives you list; however, when it comes to partisan rants you just can't help yourself.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
I'm not arguing at this time of the am, but many posters do partisan rants.....
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
What a dickish thing to say. Not merely because it's just plain rude and unnecessary but because it's so patently wrong.
I grew up in a Conservative household, surrounded by members one of whom was a senior figure. And I still have many friends in the party who are members.
But aside from that it's a remarkable fallacy to think that someone with nous cannot bracket out their own beliefs in order to give as objective an analysis as possible. In this case particularly so since I am reflecting what wise heads within the Conservative Party, such as Michael Howard, William Hague and even Charles Moore, are saying.
Button it.
I don't often resort to this but go f*ck yourself.
I'm entitled to post and most people have no problem with my additional analysis.
I wonder if you need to declare an interest here? You're heavily on Johnson aren't you, and stand to lose a lot of money if I'm right about Rishi?
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
I'm not arguing at this time of the am, but many posters do partisan rants.....
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
Tory dirty tricks row! I’m told some MPs are being threatened with de-selection by their associations if they don’t vote for Boris Johnson in leadership contest!
And this is just the foretaste of what a Boris return would mean. He will exact revenge on all those who brought about his downfall because that is the kind of person he is. The party will become riven with hatred and division. Mutinees will break out on a regular basis. He will lose all authority amongst his parliamentary party and eventually they will probably do the unthinkable and vote down the Government.
It will be like Trump time in Britain. Is that really what this country needs right now?
Back to the discussion in hand. One Conservative friend of mine doesn't like Rishi but isn't convinced that Boris' return right now is a good thing. Another member friend of mine would have supported someone like Rory but is also prepared to turn a blind eye to Boris' immoral behaviour. Listening to interviews of supporters in Yorkshire there are a LOT of members like that, who love Boris despite his indiscretions.
This bitter division between the membership and parliament isn't about to go away. There simply isn't a unifying candidate. Throw the third group into the mix, the British voting public, and it's clear that any of the current choice of candidates can appeal to one, at most two, of those but not all three.
Which one gets sacrificed? The sensible answer is the membership but that doesn't come without consequences.
Tory dirty tricks row! I’m told some MPs are being threatened with de-selection by their associations if they don’t vote for Boris Johnson in leadership contest!
And this is just the foretaste of what a Boris return would mean. He will exact revenge on all those who brought about his downfall because that is the kind of person he is. The party will become riven with hatred and division. Mutinees will break out on a regular basis. He will lose all authority amongst his parliamentary party and eventually they will probably do the unthinkable and vote down the Government.
It will be like Trump time in Britain. Is that really what this country needs right now?
Short term pain, but long term gain: Con RIP
Yes I kind-of feel that but I'm not sure that I'm really prepared for that white knuckle ride. The end result of a Boris win will not be the victory that some red wall tories in their delusion believe, but a massive defeat. And along the way a horrendous time of turbulence for this country.
The leftie in me would like to see them take the stupid death spiral route (William Hague) but the centrist in me would like to see this country stabilised. We need that badly.
The Charles Moore piece. Very interesting and influential, not least because he is Boris Johnson's mentor. I wonder if Boris will listen to him this time too.
"Boris remains a remarkable politician, but he should sit this one out.
The country needs a steady and competent hand to lead it through difficult economic times."
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
The majority of MPs appear to have had enough of psychodrama and have decided to coalesce around Sunak, leaving Mordaunt with just her close friends; she’ll soon pull out and join the crowd - and Johnson with the nutters.
Johnson may struggle to attract more, and if he does, every lever available will be deployed to make sure that he does run.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
What a dickish thing to say. Not merely because it's just plain rude and unnecessary but because it's so patently wrong.
I grew up in a Conservative household, surrounded by members one of whom was a senior figure. And I still have many friends in the party who are members.
But aside from that it's a remarkable fallacy to think that someone with nous cannot bracket out their own beliefs in order to give as objective an analysis as possible. In this case particularly so since I am reflecting what wise heads within the Conservative Party, such as Michael Howard, William Hague and even Charles Moore, are saying.
Button it.
I don't often resort to this but go f*ck yourself.
I'm entitled to post and most people have no problem with my additional analysis.
I wonder if you need to declare an interest here? You're heavily on Johnson aren't you, and stand to lose a lot of money if I'm right about Rishi?
Totally the opposite. Heavily on Rishi and stand to lose a lot on Johnson.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
not patronising at all......
Yep, even with the 'calm down [dear]' meme to boot.
Pretty remarkable and not really what I, or I suspect many others, want to engage with over their Saturday morning cuppa.
So back to the discussion at hand, with hopefully multiple interesting perspectives that make this forum (usually) such a great and insightful place.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
not patronising at all......
Remind me to come back to you when you call out the raw personal abuse of this poster.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
The majority of MPs appear to have had enough of psychodrama and have decided to coalesce around Sunak, leaving Mordaunt with just her close friends; she’ll soon pull out and join the crowd - and Johnson with the nutters.
Johnson may struggle to attract more, and if he does, every lever available will be deployed to make sure that he does run.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
The majority of MPs appear to have had enough of psychodrama and have decided to coalesce around Sunak, leaving Mordaunt with just her close friends; she’ll soon pull out and join the crowd - and Johnson with the nutters.
Johnson may struggle to attract more, and if he does, every lever available will be deployed to make sure that he does run.
I have a slight concern Mordaunt could do an unexpected deal with Johnson to put him over the line and rally support to him.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
not patronising at all......
Remind me to come back to you when you call out the raw personal abuse of this poster.
Cons quite literally breaking down before our very eyes.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
The majority of MPs appear to have had enough of psychodrama and have decided to coalesce around Sunak, leaving Mordaunt with just her close friends; she’ll soon pull out and join the crowd - and Johnson with the nutters.
Johnson may struggle to attract more, and if he does, every lever available will be deployed to make sure that he does run.
I have a slight concern Mordaunt could do an unexpected deal with Johnson to put him over the line and rally support to him.
Incidentally, back in July I decided to take a self-imposed break from here and I went TWO whole months without posting a single thing (July 9th to September 8th). It was a great experience in fact. Really good to step back.
I challenge you Casino Royale to take your own suggestion to others and do the same thing. I don't think you would readily emulate two months but how about two weeks? As you were somewhat patronising to me, it may do you some good.
Incidentally, back in July I decided to take a self-imposed break from here and I went TWO whole months without posting a single thing (July 9th to September 8th). It was a great experience in fact. Really good to step back.
I challenge you Casino Royale to take your own suggestion to others and do the same thing. I don't think you would readily emulate two months but how about two weeks? As you were somewhat patronising to me, it may do you some good.
xx
They don’t comprehend the moral high ground cos they lack a moral compass.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
What a dickish thing to say. Not merely because it's just plain rude and unnecessary but because it's so patently wrong.
I grew up in a Conservative household, surrounded by members one of whom was a senior figure. And I still have many friends in the party who are members.
But aside from that it's a remarkable fallacy to think that someone with nous cannot bracket out their own beliefs in order to give as objective an analysis as possible. In this case particularly so since I am reflecting what wise heads within the Conservative Party, such as Michael Howard, William Hague and even Charles Moore, are saying.
Button it.
I don't often resort to this but go f*ck yourself.
I'm entitled to post and most people have no problem with my additional analysis.
I wonder if you need to declare an interest here? You're heavily on Johnson aren't you, and stand to lose a lot of money if I'm right about Rishi?
Totally the opposite. Heavily on Rishi and stand to lose a lot on Johnson.
This time, I think you’ll be in the money.
Johnson has been out of the loop since he left number ten, making no effort to maintain his influence and away on three holidays so far, I believe?.
After the debacle at Westminster the leading figures in the party won’t just have sat back and said “I wonder who they’re going to pick?” - they’re politicians and will be trying to ‘manage’ things. It’s quite clear what the plan is, and the only question is whether they have enough leverage over Johnson to nobble him out of running. I reckon they do.
Johnson thinks he’s going to step off the plane like Napoleon just back from Elba, and is going to be disappointed.
Tory dirty tricks row! I’m told some MPs are being threatened with de-selection by their associations if they don’t vote for Boris Johnson in leadership contest!
And this is just the foretaste of what a Boris return would mean. He will exact revenge on all those who brought about his downfall because that is the kind of person he is. The party will become riven with hatred and division. Mutinees will break out on a regular basis. He will lose all authority amongst his parliamentary party and eventually they will probably do the unthinkable and vote down the Government.
It will be like Trump time in Britain. Is that really what this country needs right now?
Short term pain, but long term gain: Con RIP
Yes I kind-of feel that but I'm not sure that I'm really prepared for that white knuckle ride. The end result of a Boris win will not be the victory that some red wall tories in their delusion believe, but a massive defeat. And along the way a horrendous time of turbulence for this country.
The leftie in me would like to see them take the stupid death spiral route (William Hague) but the centrist in me would like to see this country stabilised. We need that badly.
Incidentally, back in July I decided to take a self-imposed break from here and I went TWO whole months without posting a single thing (July 9th to September 8th). It was a great experience in fact. Really good to step back.
I challenge you Casino Royale to take your own suggestion to others and do the same thing. I don't think you would readily emulate two months but how about two weeks? As you were somewhat patronising to me, it may do you some good.
xx
The next 72 hours are absolutely crucial. Your hyperpartisan behaviour could drive undecided Conservatives into the arms of Johnson as they recognise you're egging on Sunak for your own motives.
That's why I posted what I did. You responded with raw personal abuse.
However, there are signs you recognise it at some level in some of your other posts upthread so I will leave you to cogitate.
Tory dirty tricks row! I’m told some MPs are being threatened with de-selection by their associations if they don’t vote for Boris Johnson in leadership contest!
And this is just the foretaste of what a Boris return would mean. He will exact revenge on all those who brought about his downfall because that is the kind of person he is. The party will become riven with hatred and division. Mutinees will break out on a regular basis. He will lose all authority amongst his parliamentary party and eventually they will probably do the unthinkable and vote down the Government.
It will be like Trump time in Britain. Is that really what this country needs right now?
Short term pain, but long term gain: Con RIP
Yes I kind-of feel that but I'm not sure that I'm really prepared for that white knuckle ride. The end result of a Boris win will not be the victory that some red wall tories in their delusion believe, but a massive defeat. And along the way a horrendous time of turbulence for this country.
The leftie in me would like to see them take the stupid death spiral route (William Hague) but the centrist in me would like to see this country stabilised. We need that badly.
Johnson vs Sunak is not an ideological divide when it comes to policy, unlike the Sunak vs Truss divide.
Sunak is marginally more fiscally continent, but only marginally so. Furlough was his idea, as was "Eat out to Help Covid Out".
The Tories are choosing between two big spending Brexiteers, with the only real divide being over personality and honesty.
Kind of matches what I think about Rishi to be Frank.
I think I've cast my last Tory vote. If the Tories won't stand up for free markets and aspiration, hopefully Davey's party will.
Hahahahahahahaha!
The Lib Dem platform is basically electoral reform, electoral reform, electoral reform, nimbyism, and electoral reform. With a bit of nimbyism, and perhaps some residual Europhilia. I remain to be convinced that the writings of Milton Friedman figure particularly highly on their book club list.
There’s rather more to it than that, as you would have seen during coalition, but being as we are in à FPTP system where minor parties generally have no opportunity to enact meaningful policy the Lib Dems have to scrap for every seat they can get, and hope for a more democratic system some day.
From a systems thinking point of view you can make an argument that the current system we have for apportioning power (FPTP) is suboptimal and produces the negative outcomes we all bemoan in these comment pages as the rational actors in the system play the game they find themselves in. The jolly good chaps of the post war era are gone and we are now seeing how FPTP works unchecked by moral values. So electoral reform is the prerequisite for making the first steps to systematically sort our problems. (And of course it would help smaller parties, so yes there is self interest too)
No electoral system is perfect and electoral reform would not solve all out our political problems. But I'd agree it would be a good start.
PR will cement centralist social democracy which will lead to bankruptcy. It will also lead to a democractic deficit when people refuse to vote because they would prefer to know what they are actually voting for rather than cast a vote and then politicians in smoky rooms decide what they voted for and then claim a mandate for it they never had. I cite the 2010 to 2015 years. I voted tory.....if I knew what the coalition would decide they had a mandate for I would have voted against
I voted hoping for a coalition. I had no way of indicating that as my preference sadly.
But my point wasnt the precise form the electoral reform takes, but that plenty of improvements could be made in that sphere. I'd be happy with some form of PR but there are other matters too. The Tories have not been above making changes.
If I had known it would have been a ld/con coalition and what they would choose I would have either voted differently or not bothered. Indeed I haven't voted since despite having voted in every general and local election up to that point. The coalition showed me my vote is worthless. They took it and counted as a mandate despite the fact I despised everything they did. If they had stood on what they planned to do my vote would have been for anyone but them
Comparable European parliamentary democracies that use PR tend to have much higher turnout than the UK, and surveys show that more people in those countries believe that their vote is worth something.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
The majority of MPs appear to have had enough of psychodrama and have decided to coalesce around Sunak, leaving Mordaunt with just her close friends; she’ll soon pull out and join the crowd - and Johnson with the nutters.
Johnson may struggle to attract more, and if he does, every lever available will be deployed to make sure that he does run.
I have a slight concern Mordaunt could do an unexpected deal with Johnson to put him over the line and rally support to him.
I hope I'm wrong.
I’d be surprised. Things have been managed since Truss had her breakdown - or whatever it was that kept her from the UQ - the original plan was to replace her after the Halloween statement; everything got brought forward after the shambles of Wednesday. And remember, it was Penny sent in to replace her - and that wasn’t Truss’s ‘appointment’. Mordaunt is aligned with the sensibles, and won’t be throwing her hat in with Johnson.
Johnson will arrive to find it’s all been stitched up, he isn’t welcome outside the circle of nutters, and will have things spelled out to him very clearly indeed. It’s then just a question of whether he accepts the inevitable or goes for broke.
Off-topic: how will Just Stop Oil respond to the deaths on the M20 today, in which the delay caused to ambulance response may have been a contributory factor?
Extinction Rebellion have previously justified obstructing patients on their way to surgery in hospital by explaining, "We're sorry, but there's a war on", i.e. it's our planet we're fighting for, plebface.
"If, for example, it would somehow serve our interests to throw sulphuric acid in a child's face - are you prepared to do that?"
Presumably you are apoplectic then at the government's underfunding of Social Care and NHS, which is causing ambulance delays up and down the land?
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
It's clear that there are 50 or so MPs who really are so toxic in the Tory party that the bulk of them need top be expunged during the coming period of defeat at the polls and opposition. The party has to tack right back to the centre. Ironically Boris himself is basically a centrist but he has sold his soul to the likes of Bone, Chope and JRM and thus sealed his fate as well.
Tory dirty tricks row! I’m told some MPs are being threatened with de-selection by their associations if they don’t vote for Boris Johnson in leadership contest!
And this is just the foretaste of what a Boris return would mean. He will exact revenge on all those who brought about his downfall because that is the kind of person he is. The party will become riven with hatred and division. Mutinees will break out on a regular basis. He will lose all authority amongst his parliamentary party and eventually they will probably do the unthinkable and vote down the Government.
It will be like Trump time in Britain. Is that really what this country needs right now?
Short term pain, but long term gain: Con RIP
Yes I kind-of feel that but I'm not sure that I'm really prepared for that white knuckle ride. The end result of a Boris win will not be the victory that some red wall tories in their delusion believe, but a massive defeat. And along the way a horrendous time of turbulence for this country.
The leftie in me would like to see them take the stupid death spiral route (William Hague) but the centrist in me would like to see this country stabilised. We need that badly.
Johnson vs Sunak is not an ideological divide when it comes to policy, unlike the Sunak vs Truss divide.
Sunak is marginally more fiscally continent, but only marginally so. Furlough was his idea, as was "Eat out to Help Covid Out".
The Tories are choosing between two big spending Brexiteers, with the only real divide being over personality and honesty.
The Oaf is actually the more honest option.
He’s a shit and he’s proud of being a shit. If you support The Oaf then you are buying exactly what it says on the tin.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
It's clear that there are 50 or so MPs who really are so toxic in the Tory party that the bulk of them need top be expunged during the coming period of defeat at the polls and opposition. The party has to tack right back to the centre. Ironically Boris himself is basically a centrist but he has sold his soul to the likes of Bone, Chope and JRM and thus sealed his fate as well.
Johnson’s candidature performs the helpful function of compiling a list of them!
Tory dirty tricks row! I’m told some MPs are being threatened with de-selection by their associations if they don’t vote for Boris Johnson in leadership contest!
And this is just the foretaste of what a Boris return would mean. He will exact revenge on all those who brought about his downfall because that is the kind of person he is. The party will become riven with hatred and division. Mutinees will break out on a regular basis. He will lose all authority amongst his parliamentary party and eventually they will probably do the unthinkable and vote down the Government.
It will be like Trump time in Britain. Is that really what this country needs right now?
Short term pain, but long term gain: Con RIP
Yes I kind-of feel that but I'm not sure that I'm really prepared for that white knuckle ride. The end result of a Boris win will not be the victory that some red wall tories in their delusion believe, but a massive defeat. And along the way a horrendous time of turbulence for this country.
The leftie in me would like to see them take the stupid death spiral route (William Hague) but the centrist in me would like to see this country stabilised. We need that badly.
Johnson vs Sunak is not an ideological divide when it comes to policy, unlike the Sunak vs Truss divide.
Sunak is marginally more fiscally continent, but only marginally so. Furlough was his idea, as was "Eat out to Help Covid Out".
The Tories are choosing between two big spending Brexiteers, with the only real divide being over personality and honesty.
The Oaf is actually the more honest option.
He’s a shit and he’s proud of being a shit. If you support The Oaf then you are buying exactly what it says on the tin.
Certainly so. It been pointed out: the problem with Johnson is not that his supporters don't understand that he is a mendacious, spendthrift clown, it is that they don't care.
Looks like Rishi to to the Palace/Castle/House on Monday then. Sigh. Penny is the only one of the three capable of unifying things and appointing a broad cabinet but it seems clear few of them are in the mood for that.
Kier can happily put his wallpaper order in now. Sunak was a quite appalling campaigner in the summer, swinging between being touchy, whiney and smug. And that’s without commenting on him treating the British economy like Amber Heard does the marital bed. Also of course, he’s soft on Russia. Not surprising given his family’s business and political alignment with Modi.
There’s only one thing he could do to get me to vote for him and that’s to persuade Modi to ban the import of Russian oil.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
This is all a bit unnecessary especially at this time of the day. @Heathener is entirely in her rights to post opinions and has been a hell of a lot more accurate than many others. Betting tips about LibDem wins at the local elections for instance and Labour poll leads have been spot on.
Your suggestion that she may drive Conservative MPs, who presumably are reading this blog avidly then and drooling over her every word, is one of the totes weirdest things I have read in ages.
The others are right. Go have yourself a cup of coffee or a wee lie down and let us get back to discussions from all perspectives.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
It's clear that there are 50 or so MPs who really are so toxic in the Tory party that the bulk of them need top be expunged during the coming period of defeat at the polls and opposition. The party has to tack right back to the centre. Ironically Boris himself is basically a centrist but he has sold his soul to the likes of Bone, Chope and JRM and thus sealed his fate as well.
Agree.
I'm not even sure it has to be centre either, it has to be sensible centre-right. I'm quite right-wing, as you know.
The trouble with the members you cite are that they're utterly barking ideologues who are ruled by dogma, don't think, won't compromise with anyone and refuse to learn any lessons no matter how many times they screw up - always blaming it on others.
They destroy the chances for the rest of us. To hell with them.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
not patronising at all......
Remind me to come back to you when you call out the raw personal abuse of this poster.
Why have you flagged me? I haven't sworn or insulted anyone ( I think...)
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
not patronising at all......
Remind me to come back to you when you call out the raw personal abuse of this poster.
Why have you flagged me? I haven't sworn or insulted anyone ( I think...)
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
This is all a bit unnecessary especially at this time of the day. @Heathener is entirely in her rights to post opinions and has been a hell of a lot more accurate than many others. Betting tips about LibDem wins at the local elections for instance and Labour poll leads have been spot on.
Your suggestion that she may drive Conservative MPs, who presumably are reading this blog avidly then and drooling over her every word, is one of the totes weirdest things I have read in ages.
The others are right. Go have yourself a cup of coffee or a wee lie down and let us get back to discussions from all perspectives.
Yet another one who fails to call out the hyperpartisan bile of Heathener and her raw personal abuse.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
95%+ is a bit optimistic I'd say. Out of a forced choice of Rishi and Batshit crazy election loser Truss it wasn't much of a choice. But polling those same people in a forced choice of Rishi and election winner Boris - I'm not sure it is so clear cut.
The Times says up to 20,000 members face being excluded as they don't have email. I suspect 70%+ of this lot went for Truss last time, and might be tempted by Johnson this time.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
I'm still not convinced that the membership will get a choice of two
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Unfortunately, with your hyperpartisan left-wing approach toward poliitics, you are very poorly placed to influence Conservative MPs and members over the next few days.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
Surely this is a betting and discussion board? God knows I don't agree with a lot of posters on here but I've never told them to "shut up" (effectively in this case).
Betting and discussion is fine and some of the greatest contributions in the field have been made by @kinabalu and @Gardenwalker who I vehemently disagree with.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
You really are talking bitter and wholly unnecessary shite on this occasion I'm afraid CR and I don't know what is wrong with you this morning.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
Calm down.
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
not patronising at all......
Remind me to come back to you when you call out the raw personal abuse of this poster.
Why have you flagged me? I haven't sworn or insulted anyone ( I think...)
I haven't flagged you.
Apologies for the accusation, I realise now you can't flag yourself.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
It's clear that there are 50 or so MPs who really are so toxic in the Tory party that the bulk of them need top be expunged during the coming period of defeat at the polls and opposition. The party has to tack right back to the centre. Ironically Boris himself is basically a centrist but he has sold his soul to the likes of Bone, Chope and JRM and thus sealed his fate as well.
Agree.
I'm not even sure it has to be centre either, it has to be sensible centre-right. I'm quite right-wing, as you know.
The trouble with the members you cite are that they're utterly barking ideologues who are ruled by dogma, don't think, won't compromise with anyone and refuse to learn any lessons no matter how many times they screw up - always blaming it on others.
They destroy the chances for the rest of us. To hell with them.
I think Boris is flying back to personally lobby/convince the extra 20-25 MPs he needs to get over the nomination line, not because he's ready to run and launch his campaign.
I think William Hague is right when he says the Tories could be finished if they put Boris back in charge.
Which makes it all the more astonishing it's a serious prospect.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
It's clear that there are 50 or so MPs who really are so toxic in the Tory party that the bulk of them need top be expunged during the coming period of defeat at the polls and opposition. The party has to tack right back to the centre. Ironically Boris himself is basically a centrist but he has sold his soul to the likes of Bone, Chope and JRM and thus sealed his fate as well.
I think this is broadly correct. Its weird that he's unable to see that.
1. Would Boris' still get his Resignation Honours if he becomes PM again?
2. I find it odd that Cons dip in polls seems to have purely gone to Labour with so many CON v LD seats likely to fall to LDs with a CON slump. Thoughts?
Comments
Extinction Rebellion have previously justified obstructing patients on their way to surgery in hospital by explaining, "We're sorry, but there's a war on", i.e. it's our planet we're fighting for, plebface.
"If, for example, it would somehow serve our interests to throw sulphuric acid in a child's face - are you prepared to do that?"
"It's A Mad, Mad, Mad World"
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
The decomposing of the Conservative mind
Social media is destroying MPs’ decision-making abilities" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-decomposing-of-the-conservative-mind
"Who will it be next?
Penny Mourdant for the Party's sake
Rishi Sunak for the Country's sake
Or it could be Boris Johnson for fucks sake"
Very good.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_businessmen_mystery_deaths#:~:text=During 2022, multiple unusual deaths,and may have been staged.
"I'm up for it" is also the stupidest thing to have said. He should have come up with a statesmanlike comment that put Britain's acute needs, not his own insalubrious ego, first. But this typifies the man.
This country cannot take another 2 years of that man's clowning. We need a serious politician for serious times. If that can't be Starmer yet then we need Sunak to steady the ship. For all our sakes.
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-21/damning-partygate-evidence-means-boris-johnson-could-be-gone-by-christmas
If the Party is stupid, or mad, enough to select Boris Johnson we are in for a national disaster.
I hope fellow Conservatives think very carefully about what that they do over the next few days.
https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1583574084629458944?s=46&t=ey7B7IIhN6wbpcGsV72zJQ
"I won't play Nicola Sturgeon's games by talking about IndyRef2."
#pm4pm
https://twitter.com/pennymordauntpm/status/1583093737235750912?s=46&t=ey7B7IIhN6wbpcGsV72zJQ
Er… you just did.
It will be like Trump time in Britain. Is that really what this country needs right now?
Otherwise we are going to see a steadying hand from Sunak, which the country needs, undermined, wrecked even, by the nutters on the right.
I am inclined also to point out to them that they had their chance and blew it by selecting Liz Truss.
I wouldn't put it as high as that, maybe only 10-12,000 will end up being excluded, but some won't fathom voting online even if they do - or time out - and that favours Rishi a tad.
So given he retains almost all of his 60,000 votes from 6 weeks ago (95%+ retention) I'd say Rishi starts on about 45% of the members vote (not 42.6%) and needs a 5% swing to win.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/20-000-face-exclusion-from-tory-leadership-vote-6nhzfk2l8
Oops
Being pulled over by American police in an edgy Arizona neighborhood at night is a bit “special”
I reckon this might be all over by 2 pm Monday with Rishi Sunak the winner.
But we shall see. That would be the sensible option and the Conservatives are bitterly divided and full of hatred right now.
One other thing which has become clear is that the Conservative Party membership should never again to be trusted to represent what's best for Britain.
Might I suggest a period of silence from you is most appropriate.
I grew up in a Conservative household, surrounded by members one of whom was a senior figure. And I still have many friends in the party who are members.
But aside from that it's a remarkable fallacy to think that someone with nous cannot bracket out their own beliefs in order to give as objective an analysis as possible. In this case particularly so since I am reflecting what wise heads within the Conservative Party, such as Michael Howard, William Hague and even Charles Moore, are saying.
However, most of what @Heathener writes is just a partisan rant.
Button it.
Most of my posts since the Ukraine debacle have been, from a betting perspective, correct.
And whilst I often post things that you may find left of centre they are also sometimes reflective of an alternative perspective. I'm not easy to pigeon hole because I'm eclectic and a polymath. I don't see 'Truth' as the preserve of any one party or organisation.
Go and have breakfast, or a coffee, or something that will enable you to reboot your mindset and come back without being so unnecessarily rude.
I'm entitled to post and most people have no problem with my additional analysis.
I wonder if you need to declare an interest here? You're heavily on Johnson aren't you, and stand to lose a lot of money if I'm right about Rishi?
Digest the feedback. It's well intended.
Then come back and re-engage (sensibly) when you're ready.
Says everything about you, I'm afraid.
This bitter division between the membership and parliament isn't about to go away. There simply isn't a unifying candidate. Throw the third group into the mix, the British voting public, and it's clear that any of the current choice of candidates can appeal to one, at most two, of those but not all three.
Which one gets sacrificed? The sensible answer is the membership but that doesn't come without consequences.
The leftie in me would like to see them take the stupid death spiral route (William Hague) but the centrist in me would like to see this country stabilised. We need that badly.
"Boris remains a remarkable politician, but he should sit this one out.
The country needs a steady and competent hand to lead it through difficult economic times."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/
£££
Johnson may struggle to attract more, and if he does, every lever available will be deployed to make sure that he does run.
Christ, that must be embarrassing for you.
Pretty remarkable and not really what I, or I suspect many others, want to engage with over their Saturday morning cuppa.
So back to the discussion at hand, with hopefully multiple interesting perspectives that make this forum (usually) such a great and insightful place.
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
Again.
I hope I'm wrong.
Goan have a wee lie down hun.
We are witnessing an extinction event.
I challenge you Casino Royale to take your own suggestion to others and do the same thing. I don't think you would readily emulate two months but how about two weeks? As you were somewhat patronising to me, it may do you some good.
xx
Johnson has been out of the loop since he left number ten, making no effort to maintain his influence and away on three holidays so far, I believe?.
After the debacle at Westminster the leading figures in the party won’t just have sat back and said “I wonder who they’re going to pick?” - they’re politicians and will be trying to ‘manage’ things. It’s quite clear what the plan is, and the only question is whether they have enough leverage over Johnson to nobble him out of running. I reckon they do.
Johnson thinks he’s going to step off the plane like Napoleon just back from Elba, and is going to be disappointed.
That's why I posted what I did. You responded with raw personal abuse.
However, there are signs you recognise it at some level in some of your other posts upthread so I will leave you to cogitate.
https://twitter.com/valmcdermid/status/1583173265337745408?s=46&t=ey7B7IIhN6wbpcGsV72zJQ
Sunak is marginally more fiscally continent, but only marginally so. Furlough was his idea, as was "Eat out to Help Covid Out".
The Tories are choosing between two big spending Brexiteers, with the only real divide being over personality and honesty.
Johnson will arrive to find it’s all been stitched up, he isn’t welcome outside the circle of nutters, and will have things spelled out to him very clearly indeed. It’s then just a question of whether he accepts the inevitable or goes for broke.
He’s a shit and he’s proud of being a shit. If you support The Oaf then you are buying exactly what it says on the tin.
Ho ho.
Does she also get the monthly salary until expiration?
NEW THREAD
Looks like Rishi to to the Palace/Castle/House on Monday then. Sigh. Penny is the only one of the three capable of unifying things and appointing a broad cabinet but it seems clear few of them are in the mood for that.
Kier can happily put his wallpaper order in now. Sunak was a quite appalling campaigner in the summer, swinging between being touchy, whiney and smug. And that’s without commenting on him treating the British economy like Amber Heard does the marital bed. Also of course, he’s soft on Russia. Not surprising given his family’s business and political alignment with Modi.
There’s only one thing he could do to get me to vote for him and that’s to persuade Modi to ban the import of Russian oil.
Your suggestion that she may drive Conservative MPs, who presumably are reading this blog avidly then and drooling over her every word, is one of the totes weirdest things I have read in ages.
The others are right. Go have yourself a cup of coffee or a wee lie down and let us get back to discussions from all perspectives.
I'm not even sure it has to be centre either, it has to be sensible centre-right. I'm quite right-wing, as you know.
The trouble with the members you cite are that they're utterly barking ideologues who are ruled by dogma, don't think, won't compromise with anyone and refuse to learn any lessons no matter how many times they screw up - always blaming it on others.
They destroy the chances for the rest of us. To hell with them.
What a shame.
Family saloon versus death-trap hot-hatch.
2. I find it odd that Cons dip in polls seems to have purely gone to Labour with so many CON v LD seats likely to fall to LDs with a CON slump. Thoughts?