Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

New R&W poll: Just 19% support local fracking – politicalbetting.com

12346»

Comments

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Andy_JS said:

    One thing that didn't make any sense: Truss appointing Braverman as Home Secretary and then pursuing a pro-migration policy.

    i don't think she had a pro-migration policy until last week.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    edited October 2022

    The Saj ousted Number 10's Jason Stein this morning.
    Yeah, but that wasn't the start of her dissing him, was it? I mean, the whole reason Stein was removed is because he was saying unpleasant things about Javid, presumably on Truss' orders.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage
    @Nigel_Farage

    The #HuntReshuffle is on. Suella Braverman looks to be out (Leaver and ECHR-sceptic).

    According to reports, she will be replaced by Grant Shapps (Remainer and Globalist).

    This is a coup, the Conservative party is dead.

    4:39 pm · 19 Oct 2022"

    Shapps in a great office of state.

    The Conservative party is a comedy act.

    “This is a coup”; Farage is a tw@t.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    Today's word of the day - omnishambles.

    I thought it would either be Trussterfuck or Omnishapps.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    The bigger problem is no-one has a majority in the House. Whoever is PM is going to struggle massively and face their agendas being blocked.
    Then we need a recognision of that fact, and a GE. Although god knows what platform the Tories could stand on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864

    i don't think she had a pro-migration policy until last week.
    She has a policy?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    After the events of July my first thought was 13 isn't that many.
    They don’t have enough people to watch more than 13.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    kle4 said:

    As RobD notes that would be too late, and it also seems on the face of it to not have much prospect of success - it has been well established that the 1922 committee, under the constitution of the party, has the ability to set the rules on who can stand as leader - hence why the threshold was higher this time than in 2019.

    Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board.

    If there is only one candidate at the time laid down for the close of nominations, that candidate shall be declared Leader of the Party


    https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative Party Constitution as amended January 2021.pdf

    I mean, that seems relatively clear - when an election is initiated (this was argued about under Boris, but let's assume Truss has resigned as leader), the 1922 committee has to present candidates. The executive committee of the 1922 committee can decide the procedure, after consulting the Board of the party (which by that wording need not even agree with the procedure, but must be consulted about it).

    Whatever happened to that bullcrap challenge to MPs removing Boris (even though he resigned)?

    I don't say cutting out the members in so blatant a fashion is a good idea, but it is clear the 1922 committee is allowed to raise the nomination threshold.
    Right. Yes. Thanks - I don't have it saved and was too busy to look for it.

    A choice of candidates. A rule designed to produce only a signle candidate wouldn't be ok. And the courts have set precedent for retrospectively deeming a decision that was taken to not actually having been taken, so I'm not sure the "not enough time" thing matters. And there can always be an emergency injunction, preventing the 1922 from announcing their single candidate is the leader until there can be a ruling.
  • HYUFD said:

    Utter crap. The AVERAGE family home would see almost its entire value wiped out by ending the £86k care cap.

    All to protect the highest earners earning over £100k from a NI rise to help pay for social care. All classical liberalism in its purest form, putting the individual above the family
    Keeping family sized homes the preserve of the elite and gerontocracy rather than those workers with err, families living at home who are in turn forced to live in flats and houses too small for them, is not helping the family.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    You can't claim to be standing up for the family while arguing that traditionally familial responsibilities should be provided by the state.
    You can support elderly relatives but not those with severe dementia who need specialist support
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Adam Bienkov
    @AdamBienkov
    Grant Shapps, who used a fake name in order to pose as a "millionaire web marketer" running a get-rich-quick scheme, and then lied about it for three years, is now in charge of law, order and security in the UK.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn nearly became PM in 2017 thanks to the dementia tax you want for goodness sake!!!!

    It was only Boris scrapping it and promising to cap care costs that won the Conservatives a majority in 2019
    Um, those weren't the reasons that Boris won a majority, as you've told us at least hundreds of times.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285

    The Saj ousted Number 10's Jason Stein this morning.
    Just shows how weak the government is. He's a backbencher.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    Driver said:

    Um, those weren't the reasons that Boris won a majority, as you've told us at least hundreds of times.
    They were in part, fear of Corbyn did not win a majority for May in 2017 due to her dementia tax
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Andy_JS said:

    All of this won't be helping to reduce the size of Boris Johnson's ego.

    He lit this match. And his fans were pretty clearly hoping things would get worse, to stoke his ego, and as such not good party members.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    eek said:


    Adam Bienkov
    @AdamBienkov
    Grant Shapps, who used a fake name in order to pose as a "millionaire web marketer" running a get-rich-quick scheme, and then lied about it for three years, is now in charge of law, order and security in the UK.

    Not to mention the person who put forward the IRP to the House of Commons, despite the fact he must have known it was (a) not a truthful reflection of actual policy and (b) totally impossible to implement.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    Have we seen Truss's reply to Braverman's coruscating resignation letter yet?
    Probably:

    Dear Suella,
    Fuck off.
    Yours,
    Liz.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Driver said:

    As may be - realistically the main problem is that Sunak wasn't ever going to win, so they should have put through someone better to face him.
    I'm not convinced Sunak has much substance to him one bit, but it does seem fair to note that the election was just a bad time for him - 8 months earlier he was cock of the walk, but even now members seem at best lukewarm. If Truss and the others were no good, it was his job to be better than them, and he didn't demonstrate that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    ...
  • Then we need a recognision of that fact, and a GE. Although god knows what platform the Tories could stand on.
    The betting market probably won't pick up on it for another month or so. 2024 GE has been slowly inching out but should be odds against already. Once that happens it will take another month or so for the commentariat to point it out and about 3-6 months for the Tories to finally accept that there is no point carrying on. The farce of Carry On Tories will come to a bitter and swift end next year.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    In the eyes of many who voted for it, it was exactly that.
    Exactly :+1:
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    HYUFD said:

    They were in part, fear of Corbyn did not win a majority for May in 2017 due to her dementia tax
    Nope.

    Two reasons.

    Keep Corbyn Out.

    Get Brexit Done.

    As you've told us at least hundreds of times. It's far too late to move the goalposts now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    An end to the £86k cap doesn't just hit the rich it hits every average homeowner in the country with paying the vast majority of their property to the state. It also hits the young too who get no help with deposits from parents or grandparents
    They wouldn't be paying the property to the state. They'd be paying it to the providers of care. Big difference.


    Edit: whether it goes *through* the state is a detail.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,677

    You can't claim to be standing up for the family while arguing that traditionally familial responsibilities should be provided by the state.
    And all because he wants to keep his individual inheritance. You couldn't make it up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    HYUFD said:

    An end to the £86k cap doesn't just hit the rich it hits every average homeowner in the country with paying the vast majority of their property to the state. It also hits the young too who get no help with deposits from parents or grandparents
    Why is there a right to have an inheritance? One of the central tenants of conservatism is that you should be given the freedom to make your own way in life, without having to rely on the state for handouts.

    Now, I'm not saying I would abolish the cap. But I would certainly taper it heavily so that it only benefits those with very modest assets. It shouldn't be benefitting descendants to the tune of several hundred thousand pounds.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    ydoethur said:

    Not to mention the person who put forward the IRP to the House of Commons, despite the fact he must have known it was (a) not a truthful reflection of actual policy and (b) totally impossible to implement.
    And what with the receding hairline it's even more obvious that his face is too small for his head.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Obviously you are too young to remember to remember the Winter of Discontent
    No, I do remember it ... just.

    Nothing like as bad as this. The Govt was not internally imploding at the same time as the chaos like now.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    In the eyes of many who voted for it, it was exactly that.
    I mean, it really wasn't. Did you vote Remain?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    Keeping family sized homes the preserve of the elite and gerontocracy rather than those workers with err, families living at home who are in turn forced to live in flats and houses too small for them, is not helping the family.
    The AVERAGE family home would be mostly confiscated by the state for care costs if the £86k cap was scrapped. Not just those of the elite.

    None of those funds are therefore inherited by children or grandchildren so reducing their ability to buy a bigger property either
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    kle4 said:

    Is 'globalist' his new code word or something?

    Talk of coups is fun, but overblown. The Conservative Party can be whatever it wants to be, he is talking out of his arse if he thinks a specific policy agenda is what defines it (especially one which they have, in fact, not been following for a long time). It's party intrafighting sure, and coup is a reasonable analogy, unless you take it as seriously as he does, where he pretends to think it is an outrage that a party can choose to radically change direction, as in fact it just did.
    “Globallist” is usually seen as suspiciously close to the old idea of the “Global Jewish Conspiracy” to take over the world. Tends to go along with people who lump the UN, George Soros, the WHO etc etc together as all acting in unified fashion to bring about a new world government that wants your precious bodily fluids etc etc. You know the kind of thing.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768

    Keeping family sized homes the preserve of the elite and gerontocracy rather than those workers with err, families living at home who are in turn forced to live in flats and houses too small for them, is not helping the family.
    There's no need to argue with HUYFD on this. His position is clear. He believes a core Tory value is the preservation of wealth concentration and that's fine. I believe he has thought through the implications of that position and is fine with it.

    The fact that you or I might not be is irrelevant.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Well, there's a surprise:

    Our interview with a Government minister has been pulled at the last minute.

    https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1582775282943291392
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    Carnyx said:

    They wouldn't be paying the property to the state. They'd be paying it to the providers of care. Big difference.
    If the kids want the inheritance that badly, they can force their parents to live in squalor at home.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    Today's word of the day - omnishambles.

    That rather undersells it.
    Universashamblefuck, perhaps ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    It's like Private Frazer's commentary on that cricket match. Only worse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn nearly became PM in 2017 thanks to the dementia tax you want for goodness sake!!!!

    It was only Boris scrapping it and promising to cap care costs that won the Conservatives a majority in 2019
    I don't think it was only that. Boris was a better campaigner than May, he matched reckless spending ideas, Brexit resolution was on his side, Corbyn had trashed himself in the 2 years since etc. But it helped.

    The dementia tax, in principle, was a good idea, but yes it was obviously unpopular.

    As Driver notes, you've given plenty of other reasons for his win.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    7m
    Absolutely amazing that Fullbrook still owns 10% of Lynton Crosby’s lobbying firm - as per ⁦
    @guardian
    ⁩. How can Cabinet secretary Case have permitted this? If he did, Case in serious trouble. If he didn’t, Fullbrook’s position is impossible
  • HYUFD said:

    Corbyn nearly became PM in 2017 thanks to the dementia tax you want for goodness sake!!!!
    By "nearly", you mean he was 55 seats adrift?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Well, there's a surprise:

    Our interview with a Government minister has been pulled at the last minute.

    https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1582775282943291392

    There are government ministers?
  • kle4 said:

    2 English clubs inthe semis last year, 2 the year before, 0 the year before that, 2 the year before that (both into the final), 1 the year before that.

    It's a good run, but not that dominating.

    Seems like a pretty clear attempt to find a different pretext for why they simply have to form a new league, because the last one didn't fly.

    Still one of the stupidest launches ever though - it's not like people like Uefa or Fifa, yet the ESL clubs made them the good guys.
    A key thing that has made the EPL dominant over the other leagues is the fair distribution of TV money creating at least some competitive balance.

    The response by the elite in other leagues is not to replicate that, but go the opposite way by protecting the elite clubs finances. I hope they fail.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    I'm trying to plan an online degree level unit on Truss' premiership.

    Do you think it will run to six lessons, or should I stick to five?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Phil said:

    “Globallist” is usually seen as suspiciously close to the old idea of the “Global Jewish Conspiracy” to take over the world. Tends to go along with people who lump the UN, George Soros, the WHO etc etc together as all acting in unified fashion to bring about a new world government that wants your precious bodily fluids etc etc. You know the kind of thing.
    HYUFD was going on about protecting bodily fluids or something earlier.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    eek said:


    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    7m
    Absolutely amazing that Fullbrook still owns 10% of Lynton Crosby’s lobbying firm - as per ⁦
    @guardian
    ⁩. How can Cabinet secretary Case have permitted this? If he did, Case in serious trouble. If he didn’t, Fullbrook’s position is impossible

    Is anything working as it should in this bloody government?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    ydoethur said:

    I'm trying to plan an online degree level unit on Truss' premiership.

    Do you think it will run to six lessons, or should I stick to five?

    Give it the last period on Friday and let them off early.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    Have we seen Truss's reply to Braverman's coruscating resignation letter yet?
    Probably:

    Dear Suella,
    Fuck off.
    Yours,
    Liz.

    For consistency with her reply to Kwasi's resignation letter, surely it would be:

    Dear Suella,
    Fuck off.
    Yours,
    Suella.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    RobD said:

    Why is there a right to have an inheritance? One of the central tenants of conservatism is that you should be given the freedom to make your own way in life, without having to rely on the state for handouts.

    Now, I'm not saying I would abolish the cap. But I would certainly taper it heavily so that it only benefits those with very modest assets. It shouldn't be benefitting descendants to the tune of several hundred thousand pounds.
    I already told him the answer as he is "oh so concerned" about the inheritance of average families. Abolish the cap but put in place a limit below which your assets cannot be reduced. Make it say 250k that protects most of an average house and with the average 2 siblings they both get 125k. However someone living in a million pound house might end up paying all there care costs assuming they dont survive long enough to get through 750k of care
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    By "nearly", you mean he was 55 seats adrift?
    Rather than 124 seats adrift in 2019 once Boris scrapped the hated dementia tax
  • NEW THREAD

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    ydoethur said:

    I'm trying to plan an online degree level unit on Truss' premiership.

    Do you think it will run to six lessons, or should I stick to five?

    Is it a Drama course ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    If as reported Shapps is taking over as Home Secretary it means the Government now access to all the capabilities of Excel. Step change.

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1582758347425878018
  • Nigelb said:

    Is it a Drama course ?
    In which case is it a tragedy or a comedy? :)
  • HYUFD said:

    Rather than 124 seats adrift in 2019 once Boris scrapped the hated dementia tax
    55 seats is not "nearly". Examples of close results would be Feb 1974, or 1964, to name but a couple.
  • Driver said:

    I mean, it really wasn't. Did you vote Remain?
    Yes, of course. I've always been one of the most extreme Europhiles on this Site and I've been posting since its early days.

    The Leavers I spoke to clearly thought Brexit would enable us to disregard the views and interests of rest of the world. There are of course more sophisticated and rational iterations, but for less sophisticated voters it was clearly very much to do with shutting out the rest of the world in one way or another, and largely without regard to how the rest of the world might respond.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    RobD said:

    Why is there a right to have an inheritance? One of the central tenants of conservatism is that you should be given the freedom to make your own way in life, without having to rely on the state for handouts.

    Now, I'm not saying I would abolish the cap. But I would certainly taper it heavily so that it only benefits those with very modest assets. It shouldn't be benefitting descendants to the tune of several hundred thousand pounds.
    No, having the freedom to make your own way in life economically and socially is a Libertarian, classical liberal tenant, not a Conservative one.

    Conservativisms core tenants are inherited wealth, tradition, the Crown and family.

    Libertarians just join with Conservatives to keep out Socialists, that does not mean they are Conservatives
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    edited October 2022
    Phil said:

    “Globallist” is usually seen as suspiciously close to the old idea of the “Global Jewish Conspiracy” to take over the world. Tends to go along with people who lump the UN, George Soros, the WHO etc etc together as all acting in unified fashion to bring about a new world government that wants your precious bodily fluids etc etc. You know the kind of thing.
    That is certainly true, but the other side to that coin is that there are a lot of non-conspiracy-theory types who use it more in the way we might use "the establishment" in the uk - that there is a small, privileged clique in power who all know each other and have a very defined, shared worldview along with the means to implement the policies that result from that shared world view.

    One does not need to indulge in odious Jewish conspiracy theories to think the above is the case - just as it is for "the establishment" within the UK.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Is anything working as it should in this bloody government?
    No, because Johnson oversaw a great corruption of the institutions.

  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    Yes, of course.
    I thought so. Those who misrepresent the reasons for Brexit nearly always did. I guess it's mostly confirmation bias.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021
    Andy_JS said:

    One thing that didn't make any sense: Truss appointing Braverman as Home Secretary and then pursuing a pro-migration policy.

    I am beginning to wonder if Truss still isn't really a remainer at heart and that her switch to leave was as opportunistic as Johnson's.

    As of today PM, CoE, Home Secretary and Defence Sec all voted against Brexit in 2016. Things are looking up! No wonder Farage is on the warpath.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,917
    RobD said:

    Why is there a right to have an inheritance? One of the central tenants of conservatism is that you should be given the freedom to make your own way in life, without having to rely on the state for handouts.

    Now, I'm not saying I would abolish the cap. But I would certainly taper it heavily so that it only benefits those with very modest assets. It shouldn't be benefitting descendants to the tune of several hundred thousand pounds.
    Some people decide to earn money not for themselves but for their family. So from that point of view inheritance is the opposite of selfishness.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    Andy_JS said:

    Some people decide to earn money not for themselves but for their family. So from that point of view inheritance is the opposite of selfishness.
    Then why accumulate it themselves instead of handing it down as they are earning it?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021
    Andy_JS said:

    The main problem is that Tory MPs never accepted the result of the membership vote.

    Nor did the voters if the polls are to be believed.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    OllyT said:

    I am beginning to wonder if Truss still isn't really a remainer at heart and that her switch to leave was as opportunistic as Johnson's.

    As of today PM, CoE, Home Secretary and Defence Sec all voted against Brexit in 2016. Things are looking up! No wonder Farage is on the warpath.
    Farage is a dangerous demagogue.
    His use of the term “globalist” to describe Shapps is beyond the pale for me.

    Shame on anyone who went along with his bigoted and deeply damaging project.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,917
    Is there a confidence vote tonight on fracking? First I've heard of it if so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    New thread.
  • ydoethur said:

    I'm trying to plan an online degree level unit on Truss' premiership.

    Do you think it will run to six lessons, or should I stick to five?

    There might be milage in a 24-style real time thing.
  • You begin to wonder when Larry the Cat gets a seat in Cabinet.
    He's already turned down Chancellor and Home Secretary. He's holding out for the big basket
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.
  • PaulSimon said:

    "An honest mistake involving a work e-mail on a private phone". That will be seen as a stitch-up by Braverman backers (probably correctly). I think Hunt's play is to split the right-wing vote in the MPs phase of any leadership contest.

    Translates as, 'I am not smart enough to follow rules regarding natural security.'
  • Phil said:

    “Globallist” is usually seen as suspiciously close to the old idea of the “Global Jewish Conspiracy” to take over the world. Tends to go along with people who lump the UN, George Soros, the WHO etc etc together as all acting in unified fashion to bring about a new world government that wants your precious bodily fluids etc etc. You know the kind of thing.
    Correct. Except that the UN, WHO, WEF, etc, are all merely front-organisations of the Elders of Zion (Prop - Soros, G.). Quite quite mad and really quite widespread.
  • kyf_100 said:

    That is certainly true, but the other side to that coin is that there are a lot of non-conspiracy-theory types who use it more in the way we might use "the establishment" in the uk - that there is a small, privileged clique in power who all know each other and have a very defined, shared worldview along with the means to implement the policies that result from that shared world view.

    One does not need to indulge in odious Jewish conspiracy theories to think the above is the case - just as it is for "the establishment" within the UK.
    That is why they say 'Globalists' and not 'Jews'. It brings people along with them who haven't yet been 'pilled' all the way
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    This from @ozymandias seems the best explanation for recent events


    “None. It's an opinion same as any other opinion about "what may happen" on this site. It does seem odd Wallace jetting off (and there are plenty of other ways of avoiding a commons vote), something obviously happened when Truss did her disappearing act (alternative being she was strapped down and given a heavy dose of Ketamine).

    Putin wouldn't go straight in with a full nuclear attack as that loses him his leverage. Nukes are tools of leverage. So the obvious path would be a detonation under the guise of an "exercise" to prove he's not mucking about. Informing the US would be a necessary step to avoid any misunderstanding.”

    It’s not nice. But that adds up


    Wallace's short-notice meeting in the USA and Truss's disappearing act were to do with Norway.

    Are you following the Norway story? Norway and drones and gas and oil. And kaboom. And article 5.

    That's what the coolest conspiracy kids are saying anyway. (Not on Twitter.)

    WW3 will be strategic-nuclear (as well as biological), but the big event that moves us along towards Armageddon doesn't have to be tactical-nuclear. It may be conventional.



  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022

    Please correct me if I'm mistaken, OKC, but they would be second largest Party in Westminster, ...so they automatically become the official Opposition.

    No?
    Is there a rule that when applied always tells you who the LOTO has been since, say, 1911?

    Frederick Pethick-Lawrence was LOTO in 1942 without being the leader of a party. Arthur Greenwood who took over from him and held the position until 1945 wasn't a party leader either. Nor was Herbert Morrison in 1955.

    Who decides?
This discussion has been closed.