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Sunak remains favourite to succeed Truss as PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Total mystery why "Glasto" has turned into music festival for the well off......

    Glastonbury 2023: Tickets for festival rise to £340
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-63293947

    All music festivals are shit and always were
    This is the wisdom of Woolie
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 28,127
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What is it with ex German leaders who can’t say “sorry, I fucked up”

    “LISBON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Former German chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday she had no regrets about the course her government took with its energy policy and Russia during her time in power, which critics say left Europe's biggest economy too dependent on Russian gas”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merkel-no-regrets-energy-policy-with-russia-2022-10-13/

    Bitch, you got it terribly wrong. Apologise. Grrr

    Not doing something to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and boost defence spending after 2014 was unforgivable. But cheap Russian gas was popular, nuclear power wasn't and military spending deemed arcane. Merkel was good at working out how to stay in power.
    I see that. But, arguably, German policy under Merkel has led directly to this war. And the slaughter of hundreds of thousands. And potential nuclear war

    It’s ok for her to say “it made sense at the time” - but even then - at the time - she had people like Trump saying “No don’t do this it’s dangerous, Putin is dangerous”

    And for her to not even express regrets and say sorry NOW is despicable. Fuck her. Almost as bad as Schroeder

    German voters are as much to blame as Merkel for becoming dependent on Russian energy. In a democracy people get the politicians they deserve.
    Deleted wrong reply
  • ping said:

    This time next year things are going to be awful, economically.

    Surely the tories couldn’t poll in the single digits?

    Unlikely. This will probably be the nadir of Tory fortunes.
  • Total mystery why "Glasto" has turned into music festival for the well off......

    Glastonbury 2023: Tickets for festival rise to £340
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-63293947

    All music festivals are shit and always were
    This is the wisdom of Woolie

    Depends. I remember going to the Elephant Fayre in Cornwall in the 1980s and spending a couple of days sat under a tree with my girlfriend of the time, stoned, listening to John Martyn and New Model Army amongst others. That was a great time. Though never repeated.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    edited October 2022
    I guess the one bit of good news is wholesale gas prices are down 2/3rds from their peak.

    Consumer and business prices still likely to go up a lot in April, but perhaps not so catastrophic.

    Good for the nations finances, too.

    And the inflation figures, and therefore, interest rates.

    Still very volatile & things can change etc.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623
    edited October 2022
    This really shouldn't have been a surprise. While looking to see who her supporters were in the parliamentary party and discovering they're just about every head banger we've ever heard of (IDS J R-M Dorries Coffey Braverman etc) I also came across this from last August.If this didn't tell them the writing was on the wall then they deserve all the embarrassment they're getting for not doing their homework. Kay Burley Meets Liz Truss...

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1651197/Liz-Truss-Conservative-Party-MPs-support-Rishi-Sunak
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Total mystery why "Glasto" has turned into music festival for the well off......

    Glastonbury 2023: Tickets for festival rise to £340
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-63293947

    All music festivals are shit and always were
    This is the wisdom of Woolie

    Depends. I remember going to the Elephant Fayre in Cornwall in the 1980s and spending a couple of days sat under a tree with my girlfriend of the time, stoned, listening to John Martyn and New Model Army amongst others. That was a great time. Though never repeated.
    I have to take a firm line on this Richard, its fundamental. In that i'm talking ouf of my fundament. But still.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What is it with ex German leaders who can’t say “sorry, I fucked up”

    “LISBON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Former German chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday she had no regrets about the course her government took with its energy policy and Russia during her time in power, which critics say left Europe's biggest economy too dependent on Russian gas”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merkel-no-regrets-energy-policy-with-russia-2022-10-13/

    Bitch, you got it terribly wrong. Apologise. Grrr

    Not doing something to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and boost defence spending after 2014 was unforgivable. But cheap Russian gas was popular, nuclear power wasn't and military spending deemed arcane. Merkel was good at working out how to stay in power.
    I see that. But, arguably, German policy under Merkel has led directly to this war. And the slaughter of hundreds of thousands. And potential nuclear war

    It’s ok for her to say “it made sense at the time” - but even then - at the time - she had people like Trump saying “No don’t do this it’s dangerous, Putin is dangerous”

    And for her to not even express regrets and say sorry NOW is despicable. Fuck her. Almost as bad as Schroeder

    German voters are as much to blame as Merkel for becoming dependent on Russian energy. In a democracy people get the politicians they deserve.
    Germans are to blame here, lets just agree that truth and be sated
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    ping said:

    I guess the one bit of good news is wholesale gas prices are down 2/3rds from their peak.

    Consumer and business prices still likely to go up a lot in April, but perhaps not so catastrophic.

    Good for the nations finances, too.

    Still very volatile & things can change etc.

    The arbitrage gap between the EU and USA should close eventually.

    See https://twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1578671540123873280
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What is it with ex German leaders who can’t say “sorry, I fucked up”

    “LISBON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Former German chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday she had no regrets about the course her government took with its energy policy and Russia during her time in power, which critics say left Europe's biggest economy too dependent on Russian gas”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merkel-no-regrets-energy-policy-with-russia-2022-10-13/

    Bitch, you got it terribly wrong. Apologise. Grrr

    Not doing something to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and boost defence spending after 2014 was unforgivable. But cheap Russian gas was popular, nuclear power wasn't and military spending deemed arcane. Merkel was good at working out how to stay in power.
    I see that. But, arguably, German policy under Merkel has led directly to this war. And the slaughter of hundreds of thousands. And potential nuclear war

    It’s ok for her to say “it made sense at the time” - but even then - at the time - she had people like Trump saying “No don’t do this it’s dangerous, Putin is dangerous”

    And for her to not even express regrets and say sorry NOW is despicable. Fuck her. Almost as bad as Schroeder

    German voters are as much to blame as Merkel for becoming dependent on Russian energy. In a democracy people get the politicians they deserve.
    Yes. Poor old Germany. The most successful leader any European country has ever had. Where did it all go wrong?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,997
    edited October 2022
    The Belarus armed forces prepare for @Leon ’s predicted march on Kyiv
    https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1581916278025261056
  • EPG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has there ever be a bigger bucket of ice cold water of reality pitched over a PM's head than Hunt delivered today? Voodoo Truss economics drowned like kittens in a sack in a single half hour.


    Look at the Telegraph:


    You know that Jim Callaghan nailed it:

    We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step.
    Countercyclical fiscal policies are fine if you managed to balance the books during the good times. All the po-faced pricks pouring scorn on Truss's attempts to avert recession are the same ones behind QE and low interest rates and the debasement of the currency. The damage was done over the course of decades, not (poorly presented and mistimed as it was) during one speech.
    Hang on - what was the currency debased against? Euro? Dollar? Or is this screed just nonsense? Because the only huge depreciations of sterling in the last decade were caused by Brexit and Truss.
    Clever to make it the last decade and so miss out the massive depreciation of 2008/9 when the pound dropped from over $2 to around $1.40 in a few months.

    And by the end of December 2008 it had dropped as low as 1.02 against the Euro compared to 1.15 today. As far as Brexit goes, although it lost some of the gains it had made in the year prior to the vote, the pound is pretty much where it was with respect to the Euro for much of the time prior to the Brexit vote.

    I would suggest it is you who are talking nonsense.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,438
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What is it with ex German leaders who can’t say “sorry, I fucked up”

    “LISBON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Former German chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday she had no regrets about the course her government took with its energy policy and Russia during her time in power, which critics say left Europe's biggest economy too dependent on Russian gas”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merkel-no-regrets-energy-policy-with-russia-2022-10-13/

    Bitch, you got it terribly wrong. Apologise. Grrr

    Not doing something to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and boost defence spending after 2014 was unforgivable. But cheap Russian gas was popular, nuclear power wasn't and military spending deemed arcane. Merkel was good at working out how to stay in power.
    I see that. But, arguably, German policy under Merkel has led directly to this war. And the slaughter of hundreds of thousands. And potential nuclear war

    It’s ok for her to say “it made sense at the time” - but even then - at the time - she had people like Trump saying “No don’t do this it’s dangerous, Putin is dangerous”

    And for her to not even express regrets and say sorry NOW is despicable. Fuck her. Almost as bad as Schroeder

    German voters are as much to blame as Merkel for becoming dependent on Russian energy. In a democracy people get the politicians they deserve.
    Yes. Poor old Germany. The most successful leader any European country has ever had. Where did it all go wrong?
    Well I’m sitting here in Colorado in a big car with a senior German journalist and we have been discussing this and he says: “our energy policy under Merkel was a disaster. She made terrible mistakes. Now in Germany we are scared”

    And he was once, he says, a Merkel voter
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,387
    edited October 2022
    Hopefully after the next election we'll have a moderate and centrist Lab/LD coalition that does sensible things like bringing in proportional representation and building more hydro-electric power stations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,951

    rcs1000 said:

    Has there ever be a bigger bucket of ice cold water of reality pitched over a PM's head than Hunt delivered today? Voodoo Truss economics drowned like kittens in a sack in a single half hour.


    Look at the Telegraph:


    You know that Jim Callaghan nailed it:

    We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step.
    Countercyclical fiscal policies are fine if you managed to balance the books during the good times. All the po-faced pricks pouring scorn on Truss's attempts to avert recession are the same ones behind QE and low interest rates and the debasement of the currency. The damage was done over the course of decades, not (poorly presented and mistimed as it was) during one speech.
    Look, if the question is "should we have quantitively tightened earlier?" then the answer is clearly yes.

    But we didn't for exactly the same reason that governments very rarely run the surpluses in good times.

    There's always an excuse to put off the hard decisions: if we're running a budget surplus, why do we need to trim government spending? Well, because it'll be near impossible to do so in a recession.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Hopefully after the next election we'll have a moderate and centrist Lab/LD coalition that does sensible things like bringing in proportional representation and building more hydro-electric power stations.

    There will be no coalition - whether with the LDs or SNP. If Labour fails to gain a majority, Starmer will form a minority Government.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,951
    Andy_JS said:

    538's forecast for the Senate is now 50.4 seats for the Democrats, and Nevada is projected to be a dead heat.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

    The Dems have definitely been losing ground over the last month: the NYTimes Siena poll should be particularly concerning for them, as it shows them going from a 1 point generic ballot lead to a 4 point deficit.

    Really, it's only the truly dreadful Republican candidate selection (Doug Mastriano says "hello!") that keeps the Dems in any kind of contention at all.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    Pulpstar said:

    ping said:

    I guess the one bit of good news is wholesale gas prices are down 2/3rds from their peak.

    Consumer and business prices still likely to go up a lot in April, but perhaps not so catastrophic.

    Good for the nations finances, too.

    Still very volatile & things can change etc.

    The arbitrage gap between the EU and USA should close eventually.

    See https://twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1578671540123873280
    Yes. I threw a small-to-moderate amount of money into @rcs1000 ’s tip of a French company who have cornered the market in LNG membranes, following this logic.

    These people: https://gtt.fr/

    They seem to be doing everything possible to undermine their business, though, like licensing their tech to some Chinese firm.

    So I might sell my position. But in theory they should be printing money for the next few years.

    That’s a great Twitter thread, btw.
  • Total mystery why "Glasto" has turned into music festival for the well off......

    Glastonbury 2023: Tickets for festival rise to £340
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-63293947

    All music festivals are shit and always were
    This is the wisdom of Woolie
    Depends if Radiohead are the headliner.....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,517
    Truss actually apologises in that interview.
    That’s very rare in politics, and deserves credit.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    edited October 2022

    Truss actually apologises in that interview.
    That’s very rare in politics, and deserves credit.

    I don’t believe a single word she says.

    Sorry, but no. She became Prime Minister on a false prospectus. Saying “Sorry, I was an idiot” but holding onto her position as PM delivering the agenda of her leadership opponent is absurd.

    She deserves no respect, whatsoever.

    She’s either a complete idiot, or very smart and entirely fake. Either way, she has to go.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,387
    "Former British military pilots are being lured to China with large sums of money to pass on their expertise to the Chinese military, it is claimed.

    Up to 30 former UK military pilots are thought to have gone to train members of China's People's Liberation Army.

    The UK is issuing an intelligence alert to warn former military pilots against working for the Chinese military.

    Attempts to headhunt pilots are ongoing and had been ramping up recently, western officials say.

    A spokesperson from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the training ​and the recruiting of pilots does not breach any current UK law but officials in the UK and other countries are trying to deter the activity."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63293582
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    "Former British military pilots are being lured to China with large sums of money to pass on their expertise to the Chinese military, it is claimed.

    Up to 30 former UK military pilots are thought to have gone to train members of China's People's Liberation Army.

    The UK is issuing an intelligence alert to warn former military pilots against working for the Chinese military.

    Attempts to headhunt pilots are ongoing and had been ramping up recently, western officials say.

    A spokesperson from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the training ​and the recruiting of pilots does not breach any current UK law but officials in the UK and other countries are trying to deter the activity."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63293582

    You would have thought there was a law in place against this sort of thing. I can't foresee freelance training up foreign military pilots and passing on western protocols (without prior UK MOD approval) as ever being a good thing for a western country.

    "The retired British pilots are being used to help understand the way in which Western planes and pilots operate"

    You would have thought given we had a cold war with Russia for most of the 80/90s, that it would have been verboten already.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,951
    edited October 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    538's forecast for the Senate is now 50.4 seats for the Democrats, and Nevada is projected to be a dead heat.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

    Im going 53/54 republican. Nevada a toss up yes but i think Warnock, Kelly and Fetterman are toast
    I think Nevada is going Republican, as they have both a strong Senate and Gubernatorial candidate.

    The numbers from AZ look pretty encouraging for the Dems: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/ Indeed, it's about the only State where their lead has widened over the last few weeks, with 538 pegging him as 6.3% ahead. (If that is wrong, it would be a massive polling fail. Especially as Masters hasn't led in a single poll.)

    Georgia will probably see Walker lead, but there's quite a strong Libertarian candidate, and the need to get 50% means that's almost certainly going to run off. My guess would be no winner in Nov, and Walker to win the run-off in Jan.

    Re Pennsylvania - there the problem the Republicans have is their Gubernatorial candidate, Doug Mastriano, who is (what's the word...) a nutter. He's recently been ranting about "the 2%" (he means "the Jews"). And I think it's hard to get turnout when you have two weak candidates, as the Republicans do in Pennsylvania. I'm sticking with Dem gain.
  • Is
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    538's forecast for the Senate is now 50.4 seats for the Democrats, and Nevada is projected to be a dead heat.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

    Im going 53/54 republican. Nevada a toss up yes but i think Warnock, Kelly and Fetterman are toast
    I think Nevada is going Republican, as they have both a strong Senate and Gubernatorial candidate.

    The numbers from AZ look pretty encouraging for the Dems: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/ Indeed, it's about the only State where their lead has widened over the last few weeks, with 538 pegging him as 6.3% ahead. (If that is wrong, it would be a massive polling fail. Especially as Masters hasn't led in a single poll.)

    Georgia will probably see Walker lead, but there's quite a strong Libertarian candidate, and the need to get 50% means that's almost certainly going to run off. My guess would be no winner in Nov, and Walker to win the run-off in Jan.

    Re Pennsylvania - there the problem the Republicans have is their Gubernatorial candidate, Doug Mastriano, who is (what's the word...) a nutter. He's recently been ranting about "the 2%" (he means "the Jews"). And I think it's hard to get turnout when you have two weak candidates, as the Republicans do in Pennsylvania. I'm sticking with Dem gain.
    IF there is (another) GA US Senate runoff, then could be that Warnock takes it, due to higher turnout among suburbanites versus rural voters. Which is one of the factors that got him elected in Jan 2021.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,951
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What is it with ex German leaders who can’t say “sorry, I fucked up”

    “LISBON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Former German chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday she had no regrets about the course her government took with its energy policy and Russia during her time in power, which critics say left Europe's biggest economy too dependent on Russian gas”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merkel-no-regrets-energy-policy-with-russia-2022-10-13/

    Bitch, you got it terribly wrong. Apologise. Grrr

    Not doing something to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and boost defence spending after 2014 was unforgivable. But cheap Russian gas was popular, nuclear power wasn't and military spending deemed arcane. Merkel was good at working out how to stay in power.
    I see that. But, arguably, German policy under Merkel has led directly to this war. And the slaughter of hundreds of thousands. And potential nuclear war

    It’s ok for her to say “it made sense at the time” - but even then - at the time - she had people like Trump saying “No don’t do this it’s dangerous, Putin is dangerous”

    And for her to not even express regrets and say sorry NOW is despicable. Fuck her. Almost as bad as Schroeder

    Putin's policy of interfering militarily in his neighbours predates Merkel.

    But I would argue that her refusal to step up and spend on defence is far more culpable than buying Russian gas. After all, pretty much every country in Europe has bought Russian gas becuase it's the closest gas. (Also: companies buy gas, not countries. Unless you explicitly ban power companies from buying gas from Russia, then they will buy it over LNG from Qatar, because piped gas is always going to be cheaper than LNG.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,387

    Andy_JS said:

    "Former British military pilots are being lured to China with large sums of money to pass on their expertise to the Chinese military, it is claimed.

    Up to 30 former UK military pilots are thought to have gone to train members of China's People's Liberation Army.

    The UK is issuing an intelligence alert to warn former military pilots against working for the Chinese military.

    Attempts to headhunt pilots are ongoing and had been ramping up recently, western officials say.

    A spokesperson from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the training ​and the recruiting of pilots does not breach any current UK law but officials in the UK and other countries are trying to deter the activity."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63293582

    You would have thought there was a law in place against this sort of thing. I can't foresee freelance training up foreign military pilots and passing on western protocols (without prior UK MOD approval) as ever being a good thing for a western country.

    "The retired British pilots are being used to help understand the way in which Western planes and pilots operate"

    You would have thought given we had a cold war with Russia for most of the 80/90s, that it would have been verboten already.
    Truss could do something universally popular and make this illegal.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,758

    Andy_JS said:

    "Former British military pilots are being lured to China with large sums of money to pass on their expertise to the Chinese military, it is claimed.

    Up to 30 former UK military pilots are thought to have gone to train members of China's People's Liberation Army.

    The UK is issuing an intelligence alert to warn former military pilots against working for the Chinese military.

    Attempts to headhunt pilots are ongoing and had been ramping up recently, western officials say.

    A spokesperson from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the training ​and the recruiting of pilots does not breach any current UK law but officials in the UK and other countries are trying to deter the activity."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63293582

    You would have thought there was a law in place against this sort of thing. I can't foresee freelance training up foreign military pilots and passing on western protocols (without prior UK MOD approval) as ever being a good thing for a western country.

    "The retired British pilots are being used to help understand the way in which Western planes and pilots operate"

    You would have thought given we had a cold war with Russia for most of the 80/90s, that it would have been verboten already.
    Once you are off the reserve list you can do what the fuck you like - as long as it's legal. The government actually encourages and facilitates it as long you are serving the right kind of tyrant; KSA, Qatar, etc.

    There would be no practical way to prevent this by legislation anyway.

    However, the CCP have not yet chosen to delivery a rickshaw full of renminbi in my direction.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    The Dems need to put their resources into saving the Senate aswell as trying to hold key governorships and attorney generals , Secretaries of State otherwise 2024 could see the end of US democracy . Some of the GOP candidates aren’t even shy about their motives .

    I just don’t think enough US voters are aware at what’s at stake .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,951

    Is

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    538's forecast for the Senate is now 50.4 seats for the Democrats, and Nevada is projected to be a dead heat.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

    Im going 53/54 republican. Nevada a toss up yes but i think Warnock, Kelly and Fetterman are toast
    I think Nevada is going Republican, as they have both a strong Senate and Gubernatorial candidate.

    The numbers from AZ look pretty encouraging for the Dems: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/ Indeed, it's about the only State where their lead has widened over the last few weeks, with 538 pegging him as 6.3% ahead. (If that is wrong, it would be a massive polling fail. Especially as Masters hasn't led in a single poll.)

    Georgia will probably see Walker lead, but there's quite a strong Libertarian candidate, and the need to get 50% means that's almost certainly going to run off. My guess would be no winner in Nov, and Walker to win the run-off in Jan.

    Re Pennsylvania - there the problem the Republicans have is their Gubernatorial candidate, Doug Mastriano, who is (what's the word...) a nutter. He's recently been ranting about "the 2%" (he means "the Jews"). And I think it's hard to get turnout when you have two weak candidates, as the Republicans do in Pennsylvania. I'm sticking with Dem gain.
    IF there is (another) GA US Senate runoff, then could be that Warnock takes it, due to higher turnout among suburbanites versus rural voters. Which is one of the factors that got him elected in Jan 2021.
    Quite possible: also worth noting that Walker will benefit from Kemp in November, but wouldn't get that benefit in a run-off.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,387
    nico679 said:

    The Dems need to put their resources into saving the Senate aswell as trying to hold key governorships and attorney generals , Secretaries of State otherwise 2024 could see the end of US democracy . Some of the GOP candidates aren’t even shy about their motives .

    I just don’t think enough US voters are aware at what’s at stake .

    The most important thing is that the crazy PA candidate doesn't win.
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 143

    ping said:

    This time next year things are going to be awful, economically.

    Surely the tories couldn’t poll in the single digits?

    Unlikely. This will probably be the nadir of Tory fortunes.
    Just look at the futures strip for UK natural gas - winter 2023/4 is trading at about the same level as winter 2022/3, and even winter 2024/5 isn't looking that great.

    https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351154

    Energy will be a problem until after the next election, and will take down a lot of businesses in its wake, particularly energy-intensive ones that have no chance of competing with US companies running on $5/MMBtu gas, and sectors like aviation, retail and hospitality for whom it will be the final blow after Covid etc has drained their financial reserves. Plus generally high energy and housing costs are going to limit discretionary spending.

    It's going to be a really tough couple of years economically, and the Tories will get the blame, this is a 1992 or 1976 moment where a party's reputation for economic competence is scarred for at least two elections.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I note there's been an attempt by a handful of Tories tonight to shift the blame for the shambles we are in from Gordon Brown to Jeremy Corbyn.

    Worth a try, I guess, but reeks a bit of desperation.

    They are right to do so. Everything stemmed from Brexit, a project Jezza was all in favour of, promising as it did fantasy rewards.

    This whole shambles is the unravelling of the Brexit-era wish and it will come true make believe politics.
    Even better - blaming Brexit on Corbyn's Labour! Wow.
    Are you saying that for example Tony Blair or index just about any other Labour leader before or since wouldn't have ensured their party was hugely pro-remain?
    No I'm not. I'm merely saying that it's a stretch to blame Corbyn's fence-sitting for Brexit.
    I don't think leave would have won if Corbyn had been more emphatically pro-remain so I don't think it's unreasonable to say his fence-sitting did indeed enable Brexit.
    Labour didn’t throw its campaign machine behind Remain, and relations between the parties at national level were difficult.

    This is partly, of course, a consequence of Cammo’s decision to put himself personally at the head of the Remain campaign, rather than be prime ministerial and stay above it, as Wilson did in 1973.
  • New thread.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What is it with ex German leaders who can’t say “sorry, I fucked up”

    “LISBON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Former German chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday she had no regrets about the course her government took with its energy policy and Russia during her time in power, which critics say left Europe's biggest economy too dependent on Russian gas”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merkel-no-regrets-energy-policy-with-russia-2022-10-13/

    Bitch, you got it terribly wrong. Apologise. Grrr

    Not doing something to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and boost defence spending after 2014 was unforgivable. But cheap Russian gas was popular, nuclear power wasn't and military spending deemed arcane. Merkel was good at working out how to stay in power.
    I see that. But, arguably, German policy under Merkel has led directly to this war. And the slaughter of hundreds of thousands. And potential nuclear war

    It’s ok for her to say “it made sense at the time” - but even then - at the time - she had people like Trump saying “No don’t do this it’s dangerous, Putin is dangerous”

    And for her to not even express regrets and say sorry NOW is despicable. Fuck her. Almost as bad as Schroeder

    German voters are as much to blame as Merkel for becoming dependent on Russian energy. In a democracy people get the politicians they deserve.
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What is it with ex German leaders who can’t say “sorry, I fucked up”

    “LISBON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Former German chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday she had no regrets about the course her government took with its energy policy and Russia during her time in power, which critics say left Europe's biggest economy too dependent on Russian gas”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merkel-no-regrets-energy-policy-with-russia-2022-10-13/

    Bitch, you got it terribly wrong. Apologise. Grrr

    Not doing something to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and boost defence spending after 2014 was unforgivable. But cheap Russian gas was popular, nuclear power wasn't and military spending deemed arcane. Merkel was good at working out how to stay in power.
    I see that. But, arguably, German policy under Merkel has led directly to this war. And the slaughter of hundreds of thousands. And potential nuclear war

    It’s ok for her to say “it made sense at the time” - but even then - at the time - she had people like Trump saying “No don’t do this it’s dangerous, Putin is dangerous”

    And for her to not even express regrets and say sorry NOW is despicable. Fuck her. Almost as bad as Schroeder

    German voters are as much to blame as Merkel for becoming dependent on Russian energy. In a democracy people get the politicians they deserve.
    And it’s a bit rich for Leon to be having a go about Germany getting Putin wrong and taking too soft a position on Russia….not so long since we here were being told that Putin would save Western culture
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596

    Truss actually apologises in that interview.
    That’s very rare in politics, and deserves credit.

    True, although not for having a grip. She has more self awareness of what went wrong than Johnson ever displayed, but roll the clock back and it is still remarkable how anyone could be so clueless about their circumstances and so idiotic about how she went about things?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Former British military pilots are being lured to China with large sums of money to pass on their expertise to the Chinese military, it is claimed.

    Up to 30 former UK military pilots are thought to have gone to train members of China's People's Liberation Army.

    The UK is issuing an intelligence alert to warn former military pilots against working for the Chinese military.

    Attempts to headhunt pilots are ongoing and had been ramping up recently, western officials say.

    A spokesperson from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the training ​and the recruiting of pilots does not breach any current UK law but officials in the UK and other countries are trying to deter the activity."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63293582

    You would have thought there was a law in place against this sort of thing. I can't foresee freelance training up foreign military pilots and passing on western protocols (without prior UK MOD approval) as ever being a good thing for a western country.

    "The retired British pilots are being used to help understand the way in which Western planes and pilots operate"

    You would have thought given we had a cold war with Russia for most of the 80/90s, that it would have been verboten already.
    Once you are off the reserve list you can do what the fuck you like - as long as it's legal. The government actually encourages and facilitates it as long you are serving the right kind of tyrant; KSA, Qatar, etc.

    There would be no practical way to prevent this by legislation anyway.

    However, the CCP have not yet chosen to delivery a rickshaw full of renminbi in my direction.
    I suspect it depends on what is covered by the official secrets act. I can't see it being difficult to extend that.
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