Seattle Times ($) - WA Legislature races roil Whatcom swing district where Trump rallied
. . . . With three competitive races and a unique electorate spread across urban, suburban and rural areas, the 42nd Legislative District will put each party’s broader arguments to the test. Few other districts feature true toss-ups.
“The 42nd is probably the purplest district in the whole state,” said Andrew Reding, who chairs the Whatcom County Democrats.
The contests themselves were made to order for 2022. They pit a social worker against a police officer. A staffer for the governor against a businessman who shared a meme likening COVID policies to Nazi persecution. And an economics professor against a recent graduate who worked for President Donald Trump.
Trump rallied in the district, in Lynden, during his 2016 presidential campaign, when Republicans occupied the 42nd’s state Senate seat and both of its state House seats. But Democrats subsequently won the House seats and now have their sights set on the Senate seat, which is held by a 22-year-old appointed after the longtime incumbent suddenly died. . . .
The last time the seat was contested, the Republican won by 46 votes. This year, Democratic Rep. Sharon Shewmake has vacated her House seat to challenge Sen. Simon Sefzik in a showdown that’s attracted more than $1 million in campaign donations, plus massive outside spending.
In districts throughout the state, Republicans are raging about high prices and blaming Democrats for crime. Many GOP candidates sputtered in August’s primary, however, with Democrats ringing alarms over the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down abortion rights. Such rights are still shielded by Washington law, Republicans note. But there are no guarantees, depending on this and other elections, Democrats counter.
Those topics are particularly hot in the 42nd, judging by the roads that bristle with campaign signs between quite-red Lynden’s dairy farms and deep-blue Bellingham’s vegan restaurants. Floods are a local concern with no easy answers, because the swollen Nooksack River inundated towns like Everson last winter. So is a housing crunch that’s starting to resemble pricey Seattle’s. . . .
The 42nd appears to be trending blue, due to Puget Sound transplants and suburban growth in places like Ferndale. It includes about half of populous Bellingham. Nothing is certain, however. Democratic candidates captured 47% to 49% in each primary race, so they must turn out more voters this fall. . . .
SSI - This legislative district is one of the most socio-economically diverse in the great State of WA. AND among the most politically polarized in the nation, let alone the Evergreen State. For example, in 2020, support for Biden/Harris ranged from 12% in rural Lynden (dairy country hard on the Canadian border) to 86% in downtown Bellingham.
On topic. No. Penny Mourdant would be yet another big mistake?
Firstly, What does Penny believe in?
Penny had so much wind in her sails going into the leadership contest, but she sank very early on once the whistle started the hustings, not just because she lacks charisma and presentation skills, but because she was a policy vacuum whilst those around her came for a proper fight over the soul of the party. Can you recall her launch event, in the debates what were her positions on issues defining and dividing the Conservative Party today, the main points of her sales pitch?
Truss won, because she at least had a platform, and the (party) electorate like it. Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be, our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges.
For example, does Penny Mourdant believe in levelling up, or does she see it is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions, can ever be levelled?
Secondly, todays smug and irritating performance from Penny Mourdant, made up from just party political bullshit and spin, will wear thin very quickly if that’s her usual modus operandi from the very top of a governing party. From her Willy Speech, her bizarre Speech in the US, through the leadership contest to today, Penny has never shown Primeministerial vision or gravitas.
The prospect of Penny as PM won’t frighten the opposition one bit. But more importantly, can she steer the Tory party out of its factional infighting and unite them around an ethos?
Imo the answer is a clear and rather obvious no.
The prospect of Penny as PM will frighten the opposition far more than Truss staying in place.....
True. But does that actually mean or prove anything?
for all the reasons I listed, Penny won’t really frighten opposition all that much.
But you are missing the point Mark - as I posted in the last thread and in the post above, the definition here isn’t what frightens Labour going into the next election, but what ethos unites the Conservative Party and steers it in the right direction. That’s the more important measurement for the replacement of Truss. It wasn’t just craziness that drove the Truss government to attack and trash the Tory governments since 2010, including that of Boris, it was a search for answers to the UKs underlying problems, search for realistic and achievable policies, not just vacuous slogans like “levelling up”.
A push for growth isn’t such a bad idea right now, is it?
If you want growth, then pay workers more and pay shareholders less.
Economic growth comes from a thriving middle class, not a greedy 1%.
The Tories have completely screwed up and you are talking about a hypothetical Labour government. Wake up old chap. The Tories broke the country on their watch. Not Labour. The Conservatives. You can blame Corbyn for many things, but this one, today, is on the blues and no-one will forget it.
Of course it's hypothetical, because thank God we didn't have Corbyn in charge. And yes Truss and the Tories own the current debacle. I'm not excusing that at all. But there are good reason to vote Tory even if it is a negative don't let Labour back in reason.
The trouble with Labour is it doesn't matter how good Starmer is, who I personally like quite a lot, the party is full of people who fundamentally had no problem putting Corbyn in charge. That is as unpalatable to me as it would be voting for a hypothetical good GOP candidate knowing that everyone around him was wearing a stupid red cap a year or so earlier.
Whereas in reality, the Conservatives are full of people who fundamentally had no problem putting Truss in charge.
Truss is a terrible PM. Corbyn would be worse. It's really not complicated.
It is true Corbyn would have been a disastrous Prime Minister, although I suspect even he might have soldiered on into his third month of chaos without too much trouble.
This chap has a whole Tweet history of trying to explain what has caused various explosions by magnetic anomalies. He thinks that the Russian bomber that crashed into a building today was taken out by a Russian air defence system.
"Combat plane lost control and fell on a residential building in Russian #Yeysk city. The plane carried ammunition." Upon examining the magnetic anomaly in the graph below, I happened to noticed a suspicious missile signature (circled). Now I know why the pilot "lost control". https://twitter.com/rrichcord/status/1582100799240687616
The Tories have completely screwed up and you are talking about a hypothetical Labour government. Wake up old chap. The Tories broke the country on their watch. Not Labour. The Conservatives. You can blame Corbyn for many things, but this one, today, is on the blues and no-one will forget it.
Of course it's hypothetical, because thank God we didn't have Corbyn in charge. And yes Truss and the Tories own the current debacle. I'm not excusing that at all. But there are good reason to vote Tory even if it is a negative don't let Labour back in reason.
The trouble with Labour is it doesn't matter how good Starmer is, who I personally like quite a lot, the party is full of people who fundamentally had no problem putting Corbyn in charge. That is as unpalatable to me as it would be voting for a hypothetical good GOP candidate knowing that everyone around him was wearing a stupid red cap a year or so earlier.
Whereas in reality, the Conservatives are full of people who fundamentally had no problem putting Truss in charge.
Truss is a terrible PM. Corbyn would be worse. It's really not complicated.
He would have been worse than Johnson - he was that bad. But Truss has forced everyone to recalibrate the measurements of incompetence
On topic. No. Penny Mourdant would be yet another big mistake?
Firstly, What does Penny believe in?
Penny had so much wind in her sails going into the leadership contest, but she sank very early on once the whistle started the hustings, not just because she lacks charisma and presentation skills, but because she was a policy vacuum whilst those around her came for a proper fight over the soul of the party. Can you recall her launch event, in the debates what were her positions on issues defining and dividing the Conservative Party today, the main points of her sales pitch?
Truss won, because she at least had a platform, and the (party) electorate like it. Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be, our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges.
For example, does Penny Mourdant believe in levelling up, or does she see it is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions, can ever be levelled?
Secondly, todays smug and irritating performance from Penny Mourdant, made up from just party political bullshit and spin, will wear thin very quickly if that’s her usual modus operandi from the very top of a governing party. From her Willy Speech, her bizarre Speech in the US, through the leadership contest to today, Penny has never shown Primeministerial vision or gravitas.
The prospect of Penny as PM won’t frighten the opposition one bit. But more importantly, can she steer the Tory party out of its factional infighting and unite them around an ethos?
Imo the answer is a clear and rather obvious no.
The prospect of Penny as PM will frighten the opposition far more than Truss staying in place.....
Truss is pretty scary. Imagine having to clean up two years of her mess rather than just a month. Penny is not remotely scary. Two years of public relations veneer can not cover up the abyss at the heart of the Conservatives.
There is to an abyss at the heart of Starmer's Labour.
Labour definitely has work to do. No doubt about it, but I would take Starmers position over Truss’ successor any day of the week now. And that includes the Tory ‘majority’.
It is easy to blame Tory members for the collapse. However, Tory MPs presented them with two weak candidates in the final two. Clearly Truss was a very weak candidate. The other candidate, Sunak, could not beat her which suggests that he too was a weak candidate.
Tory MPs also elimated Hunt in the first round of the contest, a strong candidate for the job. Hence, I think that the MPs should take a substantial part of the blame. It is said that plane crashes rarely happen due to a single cause, but due to a combination of several factors. The same thing has happened here. The candidates, the MPs, the party membership, the outgoing PM, and the current political situation (Brexit, COVID, Ukraine, 12 years in power) all contributed to this disaster.
The solution to the candidates, the MPs, the party membership, the outgoing PM and some of the current political situation is, however, the same. Don’t vote Conservative!
On topic. No. Penny Mourdant would be yet another big mistake?
Firstly, What does Penny believe in?
Penny had so much wind in her sails going into the leadership contest, but she sank very early on once the whistle started the hustings, not just because she lacks charisma and presentation skills, but because she was a policy vacuum whilst those around her came for a proper fight over the soul of the party. Can you recall her launch event, in the debates what were her positions on issues defining and dividing the Conservative Party today, the main points of her sales pitch?
Truss won, because she at least had a platform, and the (party) electorate like it. Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be, our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges.
For example, does Penny Mourdant believe in levelling up, or does she see it is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions, can ever be levelled?
Secondly, todays smug and irritating performance from Penny Mourdant, made up from just party political bullshit and spin, will wear thin very quickly if that’s her usual modus operandi from the very top of a governing party. From her Willy Speech, her bizarre Speech in the US, through the leadership contest to today, Penny has never shown Primeministerial vision or gravitas.
The prospect of Penny as PM won’t frighten the opposition one bit. But more importantly, can she steer the Tory party out of its factional infighting and unite them around an ethos?
Imo the answer is a clear and rather obvious no.
The task facing the next PM is not a regular one though and Penny, without significant baggage, is the best fit for those circumstances IMHO.
As I mentioned above, no new PM is going to be able to make any significant impact on policy before the next GE. They shouldn't (see Truss, Liz) and also won't be able to, because Number 11 under Hunt is now the most powerful it has been in years, and any firm commitments will have to be vetted and re-vetted by the Treasury first.
Penny is policy-light? Great, she can't upset the apple cart. Let her focus on key Tory messaging and try to rebuild some level of trust and understanding with the public. She can do empathy much more than many of the other Tories at the top. She is self-deprecating which will be important when it comes to facing the public (as everyone hates the government now).
The next government is going to have a strong Chancellor (Hunt) setting the direction and will need a chairman to sell policy and reach out to people. It doesn't need an ethos/ideology-heavy big beast as chairman, it needs someone who can communicate and connect. Penny can do that.
In terms of policy for the next election the Tory Party would do far worse than setting up a committee to work on a manifesto. Yes that means that the leadership won't be all-powerful (though would be expected to tweak/sign off on it) but the next election is not about being radical for the Tories. It is about giving the appearance of a credible and sensible government with credible, sensible policy ideas. That's all. In 95% likelihood they'll never have to implement it, it is more mood music and window dressing to show they can run a country sensibly and win some votes back from Labour. Again, Penny can sell this. She doesn't need to come up with a full thesis, because she doesn't have time and the situation doesn't call for it. If the Tories do end up winning through some amazing fluke or Labour implosion, then they could do far worse than running a middle-of-the-road competent government for a few more years rather than pandering to their fantasies and ruining things (again, see Truss, Liz).
I see we are back to the PB Tories luxuriating in their nostalgic fantasies about a bloke that is no longer a Labour MP.
Funny old world.
It's not nostalgia, it's genuinely interesting that Labour supporters won't even entertain the hypothetical quesion of what a Corbyn victory would have been like. After all they were cheering him on three years ago.
The last 8 months of the Ukraine war have made me think a Corybn premiership would have been calamitous. It's the one thing I'll give Johnson some real credit for. Johnson is a lazy, dishonest idiot, but his instincts on the biggest issues were generally right.
It would be a lot easier to believe Labour has changed if they could do some soul searching about such things, that they don't or won't makes me think the change is only skin deep. On here you might not see many "out" Corbyn supporters, but they still seem to be there in large numbers.
I take this as Wallace being out the running. Very notable that he doesn't say he wants Truss to remain! Personally think he'll become NATO SG at some point in the future.
NEW: Ben Wallace says he wants to remain as Defence Secretary
It is true Corbyn would have been a disastrous Prime Minister, although I suspect even he might have soldiered on into his third month of chaos without too much trouble.
He would have been worse than Johnson - he was that bad. But Truss has forced everyone to recalibrate the measurements of incompetence
I'm really not defending Truss, she was my last choice of the lot. All I'm saying is that not very long ago the Labour Party also wanted some totally unsuitable to lead the country, and I'm not convinced they have really changed as much as they need to.
I have laid him. He is conspicuously awol today (but then people said last time round, Truss had ruled herself out by being in the far East when it all kicked off). And truly stellar performances drom PM and JH this afternoon can't have helped him.
"truly stellar" ? - you're easily pleased.
No. Some posters, Z, MexiPete for example, are just mischief makers, disrupters, probably in the pay of the management like what happened on Big Brother - some other posters (like us) try to offer some thoughtful analysis, explain the why behind the what and how policy battles fit into the larger political context, that mostly boils down to money and control.
Your analysis flip flops from Johnson to Corbyn and back again. Mind you for a Centre Left Remainer I was taken by the sultry Mordaunt earlier. Ding dong!
You realise growth for the UK has been downgraded since Hunt shredded the mini budget? public spending should also be honestly financed too. But payroll taxes that milks worker to spare asset owners, and further borrowing is not that honest finance. Of course Capital needs to be available to power the ideas and ambition available to create growth, but the Growth Budget was only so very glibly, growth comes from investment, to kickstart growth, zoning reform, better ways to upskill workers (recognising it’s a long haul) and revisit the deals with the EU would all be part of my own growth budget.
I understand people taken by fresh faces and penny mordant, but I’m trying to explain the inherent vice of Penny mordant - the need to fill policy vacuum with strong policy. But me sharing and explaining what I actually believe on this blog is just a waste a time isn’t it? looking at your reply above, even ruder and wrongheaded than Bens this morning, like when have I ever supported Johnson or Corbyn? 🤷♀️
Hunt’s political delivery was v impressive I thought. Polite, clear, calm, confident. If he really is about to unleash austerity in the face of a big recession (ala Sunak’s promises) then the Tories are proper fecked. If he’s smart then he’ll just pretend that’s what he’s going to do to calm the horses, while running a a counter cyclical deficit.
He’d be an able PM but a dangerous one in that it would likely mean the return of Sunak as Chancellor, who was pretty useless at it before. I’d still rather Hunt stays where he is, someone else takes “the chairperson” job and Sunak is shunted off to be Consul to Bermuda or something.
Nobody cares. Why not have a go at dealing with reality rather than made up questions?
No. Go on tell me what you think Corbyn would have been like from 2019 to 2022. I think you know damn well he'd have been a disaster.
Nobody cares. I would rather think about how we can undo the current mess. Truss and Boris were actual disasters.
Yes. Even in politics, actual undeniable disasters are WAY more than significant credible theoretical disasters.
From the day that Truss & Kwarteng (remember him) tanked the Pound, Tory incantations of Corbyn! Corbyn! Corbyn! became worthless in appealing to anyone beyond paid-up Tory members.
It is true Corbyn would have been a disastrous Prime Minister, although I suspect even he might have soldiered on into his third month of chaos without too much trouble.
He would have been worse than Johnson - he was that bad. But Truss has forced everyone to recalibrate the measurements of incompetence
I'm really not defending Truss, she was my last choice of the lot. All I'm saying is that not very long ago the Labour Party also wanted some totally unsuitable to lead the country, and I'm not convinced they have really changed as much as they need to.
It's all whataboutery. Corbyn didn't become PM so we shall never know how adequate or dire his premiership would have panned out. Truss did and it is teetering on the brink after 90 days which speaks for itself.
I take this as Wallace being out the running. Very notable that he doesn't say he wants Truss to remain! Personally think he'll become NATO SG at some point in the future.
NEW: Ben Wallace says he wants to remain as Defence Secretary
Perhaps a deal to replace him with Tugendhat if the Nato position comes up. Worth remembering that Hunt isn't some kind of superman. We need a government of all the talents, not Hunt plus a bunch of Trussafarians.
i think this is what Farage means when he talks about a globalist coup
Lots of chatter around in Tory circles speculating about the degree to which Sunakites with City links may have deliberately stoked the market run against Truss/Kwarteng.
Sunak was a relatively junior guy at TCI, which deals solely in equities. The idea that he could affect the bond market for political purposes is utterly ridiculous.
I see we are back to the PB Tories luxuriating in their nostalgic fantasies about a bloke that is no longer a Labour MP.
Funny old world.
It's not nostalgia, it's genuinely interesting that Labour supporters won't even entertain the hypothetical quesion of what a Corbyn victory would have been like. After all they were cheering him on three years ago.
The last 8 months of the Ukraine war have made me think a Corybn premiership would have been calamitous. It's the one thing I'll give Johnson some real credit for. Johnson is a lazy, dishonest idiot, but his instincts on the biggest issues were generally right.
It would be a lot easier to believe Labour has changed if they could do some soul searching about such things, that they don't or won't makes me think the change is only skin deep. On here you might not see many "out" Corbyn supporters, but they still seem to be there in large numbers.
Yes this is what I always tell myself about Johnson, the alternative was Corbyn. I don't know what Corbyn would have done about Ukraine if he was PM though. A lot of people on the left say that Ukraine should be armed to defend itself. But this is basically what we have actually done. I guess Corbyns position would be more like that of France.
I would imagine that Corbyn would be more disruptive over strategic issues relating to defence, like NATO expansion, trident etc.
I see we are back to the PB Tories luxuriating in their nostalgic fantasies about a bloke that is no longer a Labour MP.
Funny old world.
It's not nostalgia, it's genuinely interesting that Labour supporters won't even entertain the hypothetical quesion of what a Corbyn victory would have been like. After all they were cheering him on three years ago.
The last 8 months of the Ukraine war have made me think a Corybn premiership would have been calamitous. It's the one thing I'll give Johnson some real credit for. Johnson is a lazy, dishonest idiot, but his instincts on the biggest issues were generally right.
It would be a lot easier to believe Labour has changed if they could do some soul searching about such things, that they don't or won't makes me think the change is only skin deep. On here you might not see many "out" Corbyn supporters, but they still seem to be there in large numbers.
Jeremy Corbyn was elected Labour leader. I voted against that (twice). But as Labour leader he was entitled to put his manifesto to the country. He did that twice and lost twice despite 10M people voting for it. The world has moved on.
The fact that so many people wanted something different deserves analysis and more respect than it gets, but right now I think we all have bigger problems to solve caused by the Tory debacle. I am more worried about the mess the country is in today. I genuinely don’t care about what ifs.
In our reality, the country was damaged by Truss not Corbyn.
I see we are back to the PB Tories luxuriating in their nostalgic fantasies about a bloke that is no longer a Labour MP.
Funny old world.
It's not nostalgia, it's genuinely interesting that Labour supporters won't even entertain the hypothetical quesion of what a Corbyn victory would have been like. After all they were cheering him on three years ago.
The last 8 months of the Ukraine war have made me think a Corybn premiership would have been calamitous. It's the one thing I'll give Johnson some real credit for. Johnson is a lazy, dishonest idiot, but his instincts on the biggest issues were generally right.
It would be a lot easier to believe Labour has changed if they could do some soul searching about such things, that they don't or won't makes me think the change is only skin deep. On here you might not see many "out" Corbyn supporters, but they still seem to be there in large numbers.
I don’t think we have to try too hard. Something about a Jewish plot to destabilise Europe, NATO provoking a war to sell weapons, and him needing better proof that Russia were the ones who bombed Mariupol.
I take this as Wallace being out the running. Very notable that he doesn't say he wants Truss to remain! Personally think he'll become NATO SG at some point in the future.
NEW: Ben Wallace says he wants to remain as Defence Secretary
Perhaps a deal to replace him with Tugendhat if the Nato position comes up. Worth remembering that Hunt isn't some kind of superman. We need a government of all the talents, not Hunt plus a bunch of Trussafarians.
Purge of Trussafarians is a good place to start. Starting but not stopping at the top.
Whatever Britain needs, it's NOT a Ministry of All the Dunces.
On topic. No. Penny Mourdant would be yet another big mistake?
Firstly, What does Penny believe in?
Penny had so much wind in her sails going into the leadership contest, but she sank very early on once the whistle started the hustings, not just because she lacks charisma and presentation skills, but because she was a policy vacuum whilst those around her came for a proper fight over the soul of the party. Can you recall her launch event, in the debates what were her positions on issues defining and dividing the Conservative Party today, the main points of her sales pitch?
Truss won, because she at least had a platform, and the (party) electorate like it. Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be, our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges.
For example, does Penny Mourdant believe in levelling up, or does she see it is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions, can ever be levelled?
Secondly, todays smug and irritating performance from Penny Mourdant, made up from just party political bullshit and spin, will wear thin very quickly if that’s her usual modus operandi from the very top of a governing party. From her Willy Speech, her bizarre Speech in the US, through the leadership contest to today, Penny has never shown Primeministerial vision or gravitas.
The prospect of Penny as PM won’t frighten the opposition one bit. But more importantly, can she steer the Tory party out of its factional infighting and unite them around an ethos?
Imo the answer is a clear and rather obvious no.
The prospect of Penny as PM will frighten the opposition far more than Truss staying in place.....
True. But does that actually mean or prove anything?
for all the reasons I listed, Penny won’t really frighten opposition all that much.
But you are missing the point Mark - as I posted in the last thread and in the post above, the definition here isn’t what frightens Labour going into the next election, but what ethos unites the Conservative Party and steers it in the right direction. That’s the more important measurement for the replacement of Truss. It wasn’t just craziness that drove the Truss government to attack and trash the Tory governments since 2010, including that of Boris, it was a search for answers to the UKs underlying problems, search for realistic and achievable policies, not just vacuous slogans like “levelling up”.
The Tory party should forget about ethos for now. They have one job to do for the country - be boring but competent. For their party their job is to limit their losses at the next General Election. Best if they can get someone who can achieve both. In my view, Mordaunt as PM with Hunt as CotE gives the best balance.
I disagree. In my view of discussing politics on a politicalbetting blog is an acknowledgement of issues, and there must be policies to solve issues, and there will be issues with the policies.
How can there be two years now of issues, quite flipping difficult ones, policies to solve those issues, yet no contention, controversy or argument over the policies to solve the issues? The immediate future of UK politics can only be the complete opposite of your post 🤷♀️
Just finished my horseride in the Great Sand Dunes and now having lunch under the aspens. Doesn’t look like I missed much. Any interesting by-elections?
i think this is what Farage means when he talks about a globalist coup
Lots of chatter around in Tory circles speculating about the degree to which Sunakites with City links may have deliberately stoked the market run against Truss/Kwarteng.
Sunak was a relatively junior guy at TCI, which deals solely in equities. The idea that he could affect the bond market for political purposes is utterly ridiculous.
Why would the spivs prefer Sunak to Kwarteng? If anything you'd expect them to prefer Kwarteng's tax cutting for personal reasons. Ultimately they're capitalists who want to make money. Not lending at favourable rates of interest to a government that has no plan to bring down the debt burden and presumably would inflate/devalue it away.
Infighting sounds like a bit of an exaggeration. They need to work out relatively quickly who has most MP support and then all get behind them. I hope Gove is busy sorting it out.
On topic. No. Penny Mourdant would be yet another big mistake?
Firstly, What does Penny believe in?
Penny had so much wind in her sails going into the leadership contest, but she sank very early on once the whistle started the hustings, not just because she lacks charisma and presentation skills, but because she was a policy vacuum whilst those around her came for a proper fight over the soul of the party. Can you recall her launch event, in the debates what were her positions on issues defining and dividing the Conservative Party today, the main points of her sales pitch?
Truss won, because she at least had a platform, and the (party) electorate like it. Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be, our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges.
For example, does Penny Mourdant believe in levelling up, or does she see it is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions, can ever be levelled?
Secondly, todays smug and irritating performance from Penny Mourdant, made up from just party political bullshit and spin, will wear thin very quickly if that’s her usual modus operandi from the very top of a governing party. From her Willy Speech, her bizarre Speech in the US, through the leadership contest to today, Penny has never shown Primeministerial vision or gravitas.
The prospect of Penny as PM won’t frighten the opposition one bit. But more importantly, can she steer the Tory party out of its factional infighting and unite them around an ethos?
Imo the answer is a clear and rather obvious no.
The task facing the next PM is not a regular one though and Penny, without significant baggage, is the best fit for those circumstances IMHO.
As I mentioned above, no new PM is going to be able to make any significant impact on policy before the next GE. They shouldn't (see Truss, Liz) and also won't be able to, because Number 11 under Hunt is now the most powerful it has been in years, and any firm commitments will have to be vetted and re-vetted by the Treasury first.
Penny is policy-light? Great, she can't upset the apple cart. Let her focus on key Tory messaging and try to rebuild some level of trust and understanding with the public. She can do empathy much more than many of the other Tories at the top. She is self-deprecating which will be important when it comes to facing the public (as everyone hates the government now).
The next government is going to have a strong Chancellor (Hunt) setting the direction and will need a chairman to sell policy and reach out to people. It doesn't need an ethos/ideology-heavy big beast as chairman, it needs someone who can communicate and connect. Penny can do that.
In terms of policy for the next election the Tory Party would do far worse than setting up a committee to work on a manifesto. Yes that means that the leadership won't be all-powerful (though would be expected to tweak/sign off on it) but the next election is not about being radical for the Tories. It is about giving the appearance of a credible and sensible government with credible, sensible policy ideas. That's all. In 95% likelihood they'll never have to implement it, it is more mood music and window dressing to show they can run a country sensibly and win some votes back from Labour. Again, Penny can sell this. She doesn't need to come up with a full thesis, because she doesn't have time and the situation doesn't call for it. If the Tories do end up winning through some amazing fluke or Labour implosion, then they could do far worse than running a middle-of-the-road competent government for a few more years rather than pandering to their fantasies and ruining things (again, see Truss, Liz).
I’m beginning to think, maybe I shouldn’t be wasting my time posting analysis on politicalbetting.com my posts, like above better placed on conhome then?
The fact that so many people wanted something different deserves analysis and more respect than it gets, but right now I think we all have bigger problems to solve caused by the Tory debacle. I am more worried about the mess the country is in today. I genuinely don’t care about what ifs.
In our reality, the country was damaged by Truss not Corbyn.
Fair play to you for voting against Corbyn twice. You are not the problem. It's the people who did vote for him and still support him that bother me. Maybe one day I will feel Labour has sufficiently repudiated such nonsense, but I don't think they are they yet. I wish I could feel like that because I'd happily take Starmer over Truss.
As to the issue of "what ifs" I do believe that if Corbyn was PM today Ukraine would have received no help from the UK. So I do care about "what ifs", I care about them a lot.
i think this is what Farage means when he talks about a globalist coup
Lots of chatter around in Tory circles speculating about the degree to which Sunakites with City links may have deliberately stoked the market run against Truss/Kwarteng.
Sunak was a relatively junior guy at TCI, which deals solely in equities. The idea that he could affect the bond market for political purposes is utterly ridiculous.
But does fit nicely into the international right-wing populist ideological antipathy to high finance.
As per the Ezra Pound Correspondence School in Applied Economics.
The fact that so many people wanted something different deserves analysis and more respect than it gets, but right now I think we all have bigger problems to solve caused by the Tory debacle. I am more worried about the mess the country is in today. I genuinely don’t care about what ifs.
In our reality, the country was damaged by Truss not Corbyn.
Fair play to you for voting against Corbyn twice. You are not the problem. It's the people who did vote for him and still support him that bother me. Maybe one day I will feel Labour has sufficiently repudiated such nonsense, but I don't think they are they yet. I wish I could feel like that because I'd happily take Starmer over Truss.
As to the issue of "what ifs" I do believe that if Corbyn was PM today Ukraine would have received no help from the UK. So I do care about "what ifs", I care about them a lot.
If Starmer had become PM on 1Sep rather than Truss, we would all be better off now. How’s that for a hypothetical?
i think this is what Farage means when he talks about a globalist coup
Lots of chatter around in Tory circles speculating about the degree to which Sunakites with City links may have deliberately stoked the market run against Truss/Kwarteng.
The Tories have completely screwed up and you are talking about a hypothetical Labour government. Wake up old chap. The Tories broke the country on their watch. Not Labour. The Conservatives. You can blame Corbyn for many things, but this one, today, is on the blues and no-one will forget it.
Of course it's hypothetical, because thank God we didn't have Corbyn in charge. And yes Truss and the Tories own the current debacle. I'm not excusing that at all. But there are good reason to vote Tory even if it is a negative don't let Labour back in reason.
The trouble with Labour is it doesn't matter how good Starmer is, who I personally like quite a lot, the party is full of people who fundamentally had no problem putting Corbyn in charge. That is as unpalatable to me as it would be voting for a hypothetical good GOP candidate knowing that everyone around him was wearing a stupid red cap a year or so earlier.
Whereas in reality, the Conservatives are full of people who fundamentally had no problem putting Truss in charge.
Truss is a terrible PM. Corbyn would be worse. It's really not complicated.
That is an assertion that can never be proved because Corbyn was never PM. He put himself forward twice and the electorate rejected him both times. He will never be allowed another go. So there is no point in discussing it any further.
On topic. No. Penny Mourdant would be yet another big mistake?
Firstly, What does Penny believe in?
Penny had so much wind in her sails going into the leadership contest, but she sank very early on once the whistle started the hustings, not just because she lacks charisma and presentation skills, but because she was a policy vacuum whilst those around her came for a proper fight over the soul of the party. Can you recall her launch event, in the debates what were her positions on issues defining and dividing the Conservative Party today, the main points of her sales pitch?
Truss won, because she at least had a platform, and the (party) electorate like it. Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be, our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges.
For example, does Penny Mourdant believe in levelling up, or does she see it is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions, can ever be levelled?
Secondly, todays smug and irritating performance from Penny Mourdant, made up from just party political bullshit and spin, will wear thin very quickly if that’s her usual modus operandi from the very top of a governing party. From her Willy Speech, her bizarre Speech in the US, through the leadership contest to today, Penny has never shown Primeministerial vision or gravitas.
The prospect of Penny as PM won’t frighten the opposition one bit. But more importantly, can she steer the Tory party out of its factional infighting and unite them around an ethos?
Imo the answer is a clear and rather obvious no.
The task facing the next PM is not a regular one though and Penny, without significant baggage, is the best fit for those circumstances IMHO.
As I mentioned above, no new PM is going to be able to make any significant impact on policy before the next GE. They shouldn't (see Truss, Liz) and also won't be able to, because Number 11 under Hunt is now the most powerful it has been in years, and any firm commitments will have to be vetted and re-vetted by the Treasury first.
Penny is policy-light? Great, she can't upset the apple cart. Let her focus on key Tory messaging and try to rebuild some level of trust and understanding with the public. She can do empathy much more than many of the other Tories at the top. She is self-deprecating which will be important when it comes to facing the public (as everyone hates the government now).
The next government is going to have a strong Chancellor (Hunt) setting the direction and will need a chairman to sell policy and reach out to people. It doesn't need an ethos/ideology-heavy big beast as chairman, it needs someone who can communicate and connect. Penny can do that.
In terms of policy for the next election the Tory Party would do far worse than setting up a committee to work on a manifesto. Yes that means that the leadership won't be all-powerful (though would be expected to tweak/sign off on it) but the next election is not about being radical for the Tories. It is about giving the appearance of a credible and sensible government with credible, sensible policy ideas. That's all. In 95% likelihood they'll never have to implement it, it is more mood music and window dressing to show they can run a country sensibly and win some votes back from Labour. Again, Penny can sell this. She doesn't need to come up with a full thesis, because she doesn't have time and the situation doesn't call for it. If the Tories do end up winning through some amazing fluke or Labour implosion, then they could do far worse than running a middle-of-the-road competent government for a few more years rather than pandering to their fantasies and ruining things (again, see Truss, Liz).
I’m beginning to think, maybe I shouldn’t be wasting my time posting analysis on politicalbetting.com my posts, like above better placed on conhome then?
Don't go!
But that's not analysis it's just I don't like Penny dressed up in a lot of other stuff. She doesn’t have the vision thing, is your beef. My response and @numbertwelve s is Good, Truss has tainted the vision thing for years.
Just finished my horseride in the Great Sand Dunes and now having lunch under the aspens. Doesn’t look like I missed much. Any interesting by-elections?
Naw, just some horse racing news, I think. But sad to see that nobody wants to sit by you in that pic.
Even though empathy ain't Liz T's strong suite, reckon she came relate.
If Starmer had become PM on 1Sep rather than Truss, we would all be better off now. How’s that for a hypothetical?
I agree.
I should add I'm quite content with de facto PM Hunt. It's not an ideal way of doing things, but at least for now someone reasonably competent and sensible appears to be in charge.
Infighting sounds like a bit of an exaggeration. They need to work out relatively quickly who has most MP support and then all get behind them. I hope Gove is busy sorting it out.
What is the aim?
Win- or more realistically, minimise the defeat?
Do the right things, even if they're unpopular?
Have a bit of fun, because it could be a decade or two before any Conservative has another sniff of power?
Until the party settles on one of those, they can't choose the right leader to achieve that aim.
Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie · 1h The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
It was Truss’s spending profligacy that was her undoing. If this episode has killed anything off, it is the idea that the state doesn’t need to balance the books.
If Labour had won the last GE we wouldn't have had 359 Jezzas sitting on our benches. Any daft ideas would have been voted down, and if Corbyn didn't play ball he'd have been VONCed and someone like Benn installed.
Infighting sounds like a bit of an exaggeration. They need to work out relatively quickly who has most MP support and then all get behind them. I hope Gove is busy sorting it out.
What is the aim?
Win- or more realistically, minimise the defeat?
Do the right things, even if they're unpopular?
Have a bit of fun, because it could be a decade or two before any Conservative has another sniff of power?
Until the party settles on one of those, they can't choose the right leader to achieve that aim.
Middle one is the only solution if they want to have a sniff of being back before 2033.
On topic. No. Penny Mourdant would be yet another big mistake?
Firstly, What does Penny believe in?
Penny had so much wind in her sails going into the leadership contest, but she sank very early on once the whistle started the hustings, not just because she lacks charisma and presentation skills, but because she was a policy vacuum whilst those around her came for a proper fight over the soul of the party. Can you recall her launch event, in the debates what were her positions on issues defining and dividing the Conservative Party today, the main points of her sales pitch?
Truss won, because she at least had a platform, and the (party) electorate like it. Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be, our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges.
For example, does Penny Mourdant believe in levelling up, or does she see it is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions, can ever be levelled?
Secondly, todays smug and irritating performance from Penny Mourdant, made up from just party political bullshit and spin, will wear thin very quickly if that’s her usual modus operandi from the very top of a governing party. From her Willy Speech, her bizarre Speech in the US, through the leadership contest to today, Penny has never shown Primeministerial vision or gravitas.
The prospect of Penny as PM won’t frighten the opposition one bit. But more importantly, can she steer the Tory party out of its factional infighting and unite them around an ethos?
Imo the answer is a clear and rather obvious no.
The task facing the next PM is not a regular one though and Penny, without significant baggage, is the best fit for those circumstances IMHO.
As I mentioned above, no new PM is going to be able to make any significant impact on policy before the next GE. They shouldn't (see Truss, Liz) and also won't be able to, because Number 11 under Hunt is now the most powerful it has been in years, and any firm commitments will have to be vetted and re-vetted by the Treasury first.
Penny is policy-light? Great, she can't upset the apple cart. Let her focus on key Tory messaging and try to rebuild some level of trust and understanding with the public. She can do empathy much more than many of the other Tories at the top. She is self-deprecating which will be important when it comes to facing the public (as everyone hates the government now).
The next government is going to have a strong Chancellor (Hunt) setting the direction and will need a chairman to sell policy and reach out to people. It doesn't need an ethos/ideology-heavy big beast as chairman, it needs someone who can communicate and connect. Penny can do that.
In terms of policy for the next election the Tory Party would do far worse than setting up a committee to work on a manifesto. Yes that means that the leadership won't be all-powerful (though would be expected to tweak/sign off on it) but the next election is not about being radical for the Tories. It is about giving the appearance of a credible and sensible government with credible, sensible policy ideas. That's all. In 95% likelihood they'll never have to implement it, it is more mood music and window dressing to show they can run a country sensibly and win some votes back from Labour. Again, Penny can sell this. She doesn't need to come up with a full thesis, because she doesn't have time and the situation doesn't call for it. If the Tories do end up winning through some amazing fluke or Labour implosion, then they could do far worse than running a middle-of-the-road competent government for a few more years rather than pandering to their fantasies and ruining things (again, see Truss, Liz).
I’m beginning to think, maybe I shouldn’t be wasting my time posting analysis on politicalbetting.com my posts, like above better placed on conhome then?
Not at all, I think you make good points - the whole point of the battle for the next leader is that there's no obvious successor to Truss - it is good to analyse and debate the pros/cons and outcomes.
And I really don't want to spend my days posting on conhome!
I see we are back to the PB Tories luxuriating in their nostalgic fantasies about a bloke that is no longer a Labour MP.
Funny old world.
It's not nostalgia, it's genuinely interesting that Labour supporters won't even entertain the hypothetical quesion of what a Corbyn victory would have been like. After all they were cheering him on three years ago.
The last 8 months of the Ukraine war have made me think a Corybn premiership would have been calamitous. It's the one thing I'll give Johnson some real credit for. Johnson is a lazy, dishonest idiot, but his instincts on the biggest issues were generally right.
It would be a lot easier to believe Labour has changed if they could do some soul searching about such things, that they don't or won't makes me think the change is only skin deep. On here you might not see many "out" Corbyn supporters, but they still seem to be there in large numbers.
Jeremy Corbyn was elected Labour leader. I voted against that (twice). But as Labour leader he was entitled to put his manifesto to the country. He did that twice and lost twice despite 10M people voting for it. The world has moved on.
The UK’s National Grid has warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on ‘really, really cold’ weekdays in January and February | FT
This is what the CEO of National Grid actually said at an energy conference. (Not, one would note, to consumers)
He said the period of particular concern would be in January and February if the weather turned extremely cold and there were insufficient gas supplies to feed Britain’s fleet of gas-fired power stations — which remain the backbone of the system. He said the situation would become particularly acute if the wind speeds during the cold snap were too low to power turbines and electricity imports via subsea cables from countries including France, Belgium and the Netherlands were restricted.
In those “worst case” circumstances, power would be cut off to parts of the country for up to three hours “probably between 4pm and 7pm in the evenings on those weekdays when it’s really, really cold in January and February”, Pettigrew said.
Basically, he's said that if:
(a) The UK can't secure LNG imports (b) It's really cold (c) The wind isn't blowing and (d) There were restrictions on energy exports from Europe
I have laid him. He is conspicuously awol today (but then people said last time round, Truss had ruled herself out by being in the far East when it all kicked off). And truly stellar performances drom PM and JH this afternoon can't have helped him.
"truly stellar" ? - you're easily pleased.
No. Some posters, Z, MexiPete for example, are just mischief makers, disrupters, probably in the pay of the management like what happened on Big Brother - some other posters (like us) try to offer some thoughtful analysis, explain the why behind the what and how policy battles fit into the larger political context, that mostly boils down to money and control.
Your analysis flip flops from Johnson to Corbyn and back again. Mind you for a Centre Left Remainer I was taken by the sultry Mordaunt earlier. Ding dong!
You realise growth for the UK has been downgraded since Hunt shredded the mini budget? public spending should also be honestly financed too. But payroll taxes that milks worker to spare asset owners, and further borrowing is not that honest finance. Of course Capital needs to be available to power the ideas and ambition available to create growth, but the Growth Budget was only so very glibly, growth comes from investment, to kickstart growth, zoning reform, better ways to upskill workers (recognising it’s a long haul) and revisit the deals with the EU would all be part of my own growth budget.
I understand people taken by fresh faces and penny mordant, but I’m trying to explain the inherent vice of Penny mordant - the need to fill policy vacuum with strong policy. But me sharing and explaining what I actually believe on this blog is just a waste a time isn’t it? looking at your reply above, even ruder and wrongheaded than Bens this morning, like when have I ever supported Johnson or Corbyn? 🤷♀️
You have had several pops at me over the months. If you don't like what I write move on to the next post.
Kwarteng's budget was not a growth generator in any way, shape or form. Trickle down economics has always been nonsense. For a growth promoting budget a government needs to push infrastructure spending which creates jobs and wealth, OK we have more jobs than workers, which is a problem, so government can invest in retraining, and so it goes on.
I have a thesis on missteps over the decades which I won't bore you with, but none of them were addressed in Kwarteng's budget.
I feel like there is a Rishi faction and a Mordaunt/Hunt faction. I could be wrong.
Can't they just do the MP voting in a few days like they did in the Summer? When they get to the final 2 whoever is second agrees to withdraw. Just crack on with it. Get enough letters in and SGB has to act.
Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie · 1h The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
It was Truss’s spending profligacy that was her undoing. If this episode has killed anything off, it is the idea that the state doesn’t need to balance the books.
Yes but. It's a two parter isn't it? Unfunded tax cuts. Tax cuts as the magical answer to any and all ills without question has been discredited. It will be difficult to make the case for a fair while. Though I don't suppose that will stop them. Folk, even in the Tory Party will look more askance at the very idea.
i think this is what Farage means when he talks about a globalist coup
Lots of chatter around in Tory circles speculating about the degree to which Sunakites with City links may have deliberately stoked the market run against Truss/Kwarteng.
Sunak was a relatively junior guy at TCI, which deals solely in equities. The idea that he could affect the bond market for political purposes is utterly ridiculous.
Why would the spivs prefer Sunak to Kwarteng? If anything you'd expect them to prefer Kwarteng's tax cutting for personal reasons. Ultimately they're capitalists who want to make money. Not lending at favourable rates of interest to a government that has no plan to bring down the debt burden and presumably would inflate/devalue it away.
You make a good point: Kwarteng (Odey Asset Management) is at least as plugged into that world as Sunak.
If Labour had won the last GE we wouldn't have had 359 Jezzas sitting on our benches. Any daft ideas would have been voted down, and if Corbyn didn't play ball he'd have been VONCed and someone like Benn installed.
I don't think that's entirely true. Obviously MPs can do a lot to stop legislation, but they can do little about executive power, and the Labour MPs track record of thwarting Corbyn was quite poor in practice.
Besides which, it's a bloody stupid idea to elect a government on the basis that you hope the MPs stop the PM doing anything dangerously nuts.
I suppose the one thing Liz Truss can take from today is that if you add up all of Gordon Brown's terrible days - the Bigoted Woman incident, the orange blob, the address to the nation in which he was told to smile, the car crash ppb, farmy farm, phonegate, the day on which he started listing, alphabetically, every single person in the UK in order to explain that he hated everyone without discrimination*, Liz's day today wasn't quite as bad as all of that put together. But I don't think any PM has had such a bad, embarassing, weird single day as this that I can remember.
If Labour had won the last GE we wouldn't have had 359 Jezzas sitting on our benches. Any daft ideas would have been voted down, and if Corbyn didn't play ball he'd have been VONCed and someone like Benn installed.
I don't think that's entirely true. Obviously MPs can do a lot to stop legislation, but they can do little about executive power, and the Labour MPs track record of thwarting Corbyn was quite poor in practice.
Besides which, it's a bloody stupid idea to elect a government on the basis that you hope the MPs stop the PM doing anything dangerously nuts.
I suppose the one thing Liz Truss can take from today is that if you add up all of Gordon Brown's terrible days - the Bigoted Woman incident, the orange blob, the address to the nation in which he was told to smile, the car crash ppb, farmy farm, phonegate, the day on which he started listing, alphabetically, every single person in the UK in order to explain that he hated everyone without discrimination*, Liz's day today wasn't quite as bad as all of that put together. But I don't think any PM has had such a bad, embarassing, weird single day as this that I can remember.
Any PM candidate is going to have to be a team player because Hunt isn’t going to be moveable from the Treasury now and has a clear grip on fiscal policy. So their role as PM is going to be presentational and tone-setting.
For that reason I think Penny is the best fit for them. Has the best chance of giving them a 200-240 seat result IMHO.
What does the 2024 manifesto say? Where's the vision for Britain? If it's all managerial with a token figurehead PR PM balancing an uneasy truce, that is unlikely to work.
In my view the hack doesn't work, the Tories have to choose which way they want to go and deal with the consequences.
Given that Hunt's original leadership platform was not a million miles away from Truss's, we might end up with Trussism by the back door, but with collegiate decision making and competent execution.
He came 8th out of 8
Hence being a compromise candidate - he doesn't have a faction lined up behind him already, but could win support of others.
"I'll lead the Party into the next election." Yes, Liz.
The Tories risk taking all of us for fools. No one believes this. Why are we pretending we need to keep her in post? To do what? Communicate nothing? Grind her jaw in robotic fashion?
Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie · 1h The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
It was Truss’s spending profligacy that was her undoing. If this episode has killed anything off, it is the idea that the state doesn’t need to balance the books.
Which buggers Labour's ability to fund its public sector clients.
Nobody cares. Why not have a go at dealing with reality rather than made up questions?
No. Go on tell me what you think Corbyn would have been like from 2019 to 2022. I think you know damn well he'd have been a disaster.
Nobody cares. I would rather think about how we can undo the current mess. Truss and Boris were actual disasters.
You genuinely can't admit it can you? It's actually pathetic that on the one hand we are told we should believe "Labour has changed, Labour is better", but the very same people won't even admit how close they came to do something every bit as nuts as the GOP letting Trump get elected. Fundamentally you haven't changed at all, most of you would vote for Corbyn today if that was the option.
I'm not a fan of Corbyn, but he's nothing like Trump.
Corbyn was clearly a reluctant leader, and in many ways the Labour offer was much more conservative than his personal views. John McDonnell was clearly the brains of the operation, and was much more pragmatic - if anything desperate to be seen as unlikely to rock the boat too much.
Trump was an absolute megalomaniac - and nearly everyone who worked closely with him, has at some point suggested he was a dangerous, unpredictable lunatic.
You can make comparisons between anyone if you focus on specific elements. Corbyn similarly relied upon members (or equivalent) rather than legislators, and some of his supporters have a conspiracist mindset that is similar, but there's far more differences, both in content and style.
It's the same with the far more common comparison between Boris and Trump. There are some, but Boris for example is entirely of the regular political establishment in a way that just doesn't apply with Trump, to name but one difference.
If Labour had won the last GE we wouldn't have had 359 Jezzas sitting on our benches. Any daft ideas would have been voted down, and if Corbyn didn't play ball he'd have been VONCed and someone like Benn installed.
I don't think that's entirely true. Obviously MPs can do a lot to stop legislation, but they can do little about executive power, and the Labour MPs track record of thwarting Corbyn was quite poor in practice.
Besides which, it's a bloody stupid idea to elect a government on the basis that you hope the MPs stop the PM doing anything dangerously nuts.
On topic. No. Penny Mourdant would be yet another big mistake?
Firstly, What does Penny believe in?
Penny had so much wind in her sails going into the leadership contest, but she sank very early on once the whistle started the hustings, not just because she lacks charisma and presentation skills, but because she was a policy vacuum whilst those around her came for a proper fight over the soul of the party. Can you recall her launch event, in the debates what were her positions on issues defining and dividing the Conservative Party today, the main points of her sales pitch?
Truss won, because she at least had a platform, and the (party) electorate like it. Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be, our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges.
For example, does Penny Mourdant believe in levelling up, or does she see it is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions, can ever be levelled?
Secondly, todays smug and irritating performance from Penny Mourdant, made up from just party political bullshit and spin, will wear thin very quickly if that’s her usual modus operandi from the very top of a governing party. From her Willy Speech, her bizarre Speech in the US, through the leadership contest to today, Penny has never shown Primeministerial vision or gravitas.
The prospect of Penny as PM won’t frighten the opposition one bit. But more importantly, can she steer the Tory party out of its factional infighting and unite them around an ethos?
Imo the answer is a clear and rather obvious no.
The prospect of Penny as PM will frighten the opposition far more than Truss staying in place.....
Truss is pretty scary. Imagine having to clean up two years of her mess rather than just a month. Penny is not remotely scary. Two years of public relations veneer can not cover up the abyss at the heart of the Conservatives.
There is to an abyss at the heart of Starmer's Labour.
Interesting thread by that Belarus journalist that the entire Russian/Belarus build up is a feint. To attract Ukr troops from the south/east and weaken those fronts
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
Farage called what has happened the last few weeks a globalist coup tonite
The Chancellor and the PM announced policies that led to the deficit skyrocketing. Investors took fright, because bad shit often happens to countries where debt levels rise in perpetuity (see Greece, Japan, and even Italy).
Investors are neither legally nor morally obligated to bankroll the government.
What does Farage suggest? Laws that require people to buy British government bonds?
Nobody cares. Why not have a go at dealing with reality rather than made up questions?
No. Go on tell me what you think Corbyn would have been like from 2019 to 2022. I think you know damn well he'd have been a disaster.
Nobody cares. I would rather think about how we can undo the current mess. Truss and Boris were actual disasters.
You genuinely can't admit it can you? It's actually pathetic that on the one hand we are told we should believe "Labour has changed, Labour is better", but the very same people won't even admit how close they came to do something every bit as nuts as the GOP letting Trump get elected. Fundamentally you haven't changed at all, most of you would vote for Corbyn today if that was the option.
I invited you to have a go at dealing with reality. You said 'No'.
That's my preferred approach to reality as well. It always disappoints me.
I suppose the one thing Liz Truss can take from today is that if you add up all of Gordon Brown's terrible days - the Bigoted Woman incident, the orange blob, the address to the nation in which he was told to smile, the car crash ppb, farmy farm, phonegate, the day on which he started listing, alphabetically, every single person in the UK in order to explain that he hated everyone without discrimination*, Liz's day today wasn't quite as bad as all of that put together. But I don't think any PM has had such a bad, embarassing, weird single day as this that I can remember.
Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie · 1h The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
It was Truss’s spending profligacy that was her undoing. If this episode has killed anything off, it is the idea that the state doesn’t need to balance the books.
Which buggers Labour's ability to fund its public sector clients.
It's going to be fun watching that.
Glad to hear you are looking forward to the next Labour government.
If Labour had won the last GE we wouldn't have had 359 Jezzas sitting on our benches. Any daft ideas would have been voted down, and if Corbyn didn't play ball he'd have been VONCed and someone like Benn installed.
I don't think that's entirely true. Obviously MPs can do a lot to stop legislation, but they can do little about executive power, and the Labour MPs track record of thwarting Corbyn was quite poor in practice.
Besides which, it's a bloody stupid idea to elect a government on the basis that you hope the MPs stop the PM doing anything dangerously nuts.
Which is why when people were asked to not focus on the leader in 2019 it did not work.
Comments
. . . . With three competitive races and a unique electorate spread across urban, suburban and rural areas, the 42nd Legislative District will put each party’s broader arguments to the test. Few other districts feature true toss-ups.
“The 42nd is probably the purplest district in the whole state,” said Andrew Reding, who chairs the Whatcom County Democrats.
The contests themselves were made to order for 2022. They pit a social worker against a police officer. A staffer for the governor against a businessman who shared a meme likening COVID policies to Nazi persecution. And an economics professor against a recent graduate who worked for President Donald Trump.
Trump rallied in the district, in Lynden, during his 2016 presidential campaign, when Republicans occupied the 42nd’s state Senate seat and both of its state House seats. But Democrats subsequently won the House seats and now have their sights set on the Senate seat, which is held by a 22-year-old appointed after the longtime incumbent suddenly died. . . .
The last time the seat was contested, the Republican won by 46 votes. This year, Democratic Rep. Sharon Shewmake has vacated her House seat to challenge Sen. Simon Sefzik in a showdown that’s attracted more than $1 million in campaign donations, plus massive outside spending.
In districts throughout the state, Republicans are raging about high prices and blaming Democrats for crime. Many GOP candidates sputtered in August’s primary, however, with Democrats ringing alarms over the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down abortion rights. Such rights are still shielded by Washington law, Republicans note. But there are no guarantees, depending on this and other elections, Democrats counter.
Those topics are particularly hot in the 42nd, judging by the roads that bristle with campaign signs between quite-red Lynden’s dairy farms and deep-blue Bellingham’s vegan restaurants. Floods are a local concern with no easy answers, because the swollen Nooksack River inundated towns like Everson last winter. So is a housing crunch that’s starting to resemble pricey Seattle’s. . . .
The 42nd appears to be trending blue, due to Puget Sound transplants and suburban growth in places like Ferndale. It includes about half of populous Bellingham. Nothing is certain, however. Democratic candidates captured 47% to 49% in each primary race, so they must turn out more voters this fall. . . .
SSI - This legislative district is one of the most socio-economically diverse in the great State of WA. AND among the most politically polarized in the nation, let alone the Evergreen State. For example, in 2020, support for Biden/Harris ranged from 12% in rural Lynden (dairy country hard on the Canadian border) to 86% in downtown Bellingham.
Economic growth comes from a thriving middle class, not a greedy 1%.
"Combat plane lost control and fell on a residential building in Russian #Yeysk city. The plane carried ammunition." Upon examining the magnetic anomaly in the graph below, I happened to noticed a suspicious missile signature (circled). Now I know why the pilot "lost control".
https://twitter.com/rrichcord/status/1582100799240687616
As I mentioned above, no new PM is going to be able to make any significant impact on policy before the next GE. They shouldn't (see Truss, Liz) and also won't be able to, because Number 11 under Hunt is now the most powerful it has been in years, and any firm commitments will have to be vetted and re-vetted by the Treasury first.
Penny is policy-light? Great, she can't upset the apple cart. Let her focus on key Tory messaging and try to rebuild some level of trust and understanding with the public. She can do empathy much more than many of the other Tories at the top. She is self-deprecating which will be important when it comes to facing the public (as everyone hates the government now).
The next government is going to have a strong Chancellor (Hunt) setting the direction and will need a chairman to sell policy and reach out to people. It doesn't need an ethos/ideology-heavy big beast as chairman, it needs someone who can communicate and connect. Penny can do that.
In terms of policy for the next election the Tory Party would do far worse than setting up a committee to work on a manifesto. Yes that means that the leadership won't be all-powerful (though would be expected to tweak/sign off on it) but the next election is not about being radical for the Tories. It is about giving the appearance of a credible and sensible government with credible, sensible policy ideas. That's all. In 95% likelihood they'll never have to implement it, it is more mood music and window dressing to show they can run a country sensibly and win some votes back from Labour. Again, Penny can sell this. She doesn't need to come up with a full thesis, because she doesn't have time and the situation doesn't call for it. If the Tories do end up winning through some amazing fluke or Labour implosion, then they could do far worse than running a middle-of-the-road competent government for a few more years rather than pandering to their fantasies and ruining things (again, see Truss, Liz).
The last 8 months of the Ukraine war have made me think a Corybn premiership would have been calamitous. It's the one thing I'll give Johnson some real credit for. Johnson is a lazy, dishonest idiot, but his instincts on the biggest issues were generally right.
It would be a lot easier to believe Labour has changed if they could do some soul searching about such things, that they don't or won't makes me think the change is only skin deep. On here you might not see many "out" Corbyn supporters, but they still seem to be there in large numbers.
NEW: Ben Wallace says he wants to remain as Defence Secretary
He told @thetimes: “I want to be the secretary of state for defence until I finish. I love the job I do and we have more to do. I want the prime minister to be the prime minister and I want to do this job.”
https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1582104016481562624
Of course Capital needs to be available to power the ideas and ambition available to create growth, but the Growth Budget was only so very glibly, growth comes from investment, to kickstart growth, zoning reform, better ways to upskill workers (recognising it’s a long haul) and revisit the deals with the EU would all be part of my own growth budget.
I understand people taken by fresh faces and penny mordant, but I’m trying to explain the inherent vice of Penny mordant - the need to fill policy vacuum with strong policy. But me sharing and explaining what I actually believe on this blog is just a waste a time isn’t it? looking at your reply above, even ruder and wrongheaded than Bens this morning, like when have I ever supported Johnson or Corbyn? 🤷♀️
He’d be an able PM but a dangerous one in that it would likely mean the return of Sunak as Chancellor, who was pretty useless at it before. I’d still rather Hunt stays where he is, someone else takes “the chairperson” job and Sunak is shunted off to be Consul to Bermuda or something.
From the day that Truss & Kwarteng (remember him) tanked the Pound, Tory incantations of Corbyn! Corbyn! Corbyn! became worthless in appealing to anyone beyond paid-up Tory members.
Sunak was a relatively junior guy at TCI, which deals solely in equities. The idea that he could affect the bond market for political purposes is utterly ridiculous.
— Rishi Sunak was contacted in recent days by a senior MP on behalf of Penny Mordaunt, making a “formal offer” of a joint ticket
— Sunak said no, per person in the know
— Mordaunt denies authorising approach
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/truss-watches-uk-vision-dismantled-as-rivals-fight-for-her-job
I don't know what Corbyn would have done about Ukraine if he was PM though. A lot of people on the left say that Ukraine should be armed to defend itself. But this is basically what we have actually done.
I guess Corbyns position would be more like that of France.
I would imagine that Corbyn would be more disruptive over strategic issues relating to defence, like NATO expansion, trident etc.
The fact that so many people wanted something different deserves analysis and more respect than it gets, but right now I think we all have bigger problems to solve caused by the Tory debacle. I am more worried about the mess the country is in today. I genuinely don’t care about what ifs.
In our reality, the country was damaged by Truss not Corbyn.
Coming up on #bbcnewsten @BBCOne: I’ve interviewed the Prime Minister tonight
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1582107636438564864
Whatever Britain needs, it's NOT a Ministry of All the Dunces.
How can there be two years now of issues, quite flipping difficult ones, policies to solve those issues, yet no contention, controversy or argument over the policies to solve the issues? The immediate future of UK politics can only be the complete opposite of your post 🤷♀️
Chris Curtis
@chriscurtis94
·
4h
This Tory chaos is damaging Britain and damaging my city.
We deserve a better future and I’m willing to fight for it.
That’s why I’m standing to be Labour’s next MP for Milton Keynes North.
Sign up to my campaign here - https://chriscurtis.org.uk
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1582044974841233408
You really haven't a fucking clue, do you?
@pollymackenzie
·
1h
The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
As to the issue of "what ifs" I do believe that if Corbyn was PM today Ukraine would have received no help from the UK. So I do care about "what ifs", I care about them a lot.
As per the Ezra Pound Correspondence School in Applied Economics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/63244504
It's really not that complicated.
But that's not analysis it's just I don't like Penny dressed up in a lot of other stuff. She doesn’t have the vision thing, is your beef. My response and @numbertwelve s is Good, Truss has tainted the vision thing for years.
Even though empathy ain't Liz T's strong suite, reckon she came relate.
I should add I'm quite content with de facto PM Hunt. It's not an ideal way of doing things, but at least for now someone reasonably competent and sensible appears to be in charge.
Win- or more realistically, minimise the defeat?
Do the right things, even if they're unpopular?
Have a bit of fun, because it could be a decade or two before any Conservative has another sniff of power?
Until the party settles on one of those, they can't choose the right leader to achieve that aim.
And I really don't want to spend my days posting on conhome!
He said the period of particular concern would be in January and February if the weather turned extremely cold and there were insufficient gas supplies to feed Britain’s fleet of gas-fired power stations — which remain the backbone of the system. He said the situation would become particularly acute if the wind speeds during the cold snap were too low to power turbines and electricity imports via subsea cables from countries including France, Belgium and the Netherlands were restricted.
In those “worst case” circumstances, power would be cut off to parts of the country for up to three hours “probably between 4pm and 7pm in the evenings on those weekdays when it’s really, really cold in January and February”, Pettigrew said.
Basically, he's said that if:
(a) The UK can't secure LNG imports
(b) It's really cold
(c) The wind isn't blowing
and
(d) There were restrictions on energy exports from Europe
Then we *could* see blackouts.
Kwarteng's budget was not a growth generator in any way, shape or form. Trickle down economics has always been nonsense. For a growth promoting budget a government needs to push infrastructure spending which creates jobs and wealth, OK we have more jobs than workers, which is a problem, so government can invest in retraining, and so it goes on.
I have a thesis on missteps over the decades which I won't bore you with, but none of them were addressed in Kwarteng's budget.
Unfunded tax cuts.
Tax cuts as the magical answer to any and all ills without question has been discredited. It will be difficult to make the case for a fair while.
Though I don't suppose that will stop them. Folk, even in the Tory Party will look more askance at the very idea.
BRACE.
Besides which, it's a bloody stupid idea to elect a government on the basis that you hope the MPs stop the PM doing anything dangerously nuts.
"Growth, growth, growth"
*one or two things on this list may by mythical.
I thought she hated everyone too much to be libertarian.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63293891
Yes, Liz.
She looks utterly broken and probably on medication.
Someone stop this now please.
Tory members would vote for Rishi Sunak not Liz Truss as leader today
60% Sunak
40% Truss
(From members who shared a view)
Suggests the grassroots are turning.
(Polling by @JLPartnersPolls)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/17/tory-members-would-vote-rishi-sunak-liz-truss-leadership-election/
She wants to ban almost everything.
It's going to be fun watching that.
Pls we need an intervention.
It's the same with the far more common comparison between Boris and Trump. There are some, but Boris for example is entirely of the regular political establishment in a way that just doesn't apply with Trump, to name but one difference.
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or
rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
That’s not his style. He escalates
.