Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie · 1h The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
It was Truss’s spending profligacy that was her undoing. If this episode has killed anything off, it is the idea that the state doesn’t need to balance the books.
Which buggers Labour's ability to fund its public sector clients.
It's going to be fun watching that.
Glad to hear you are looking forward to the next Labour government.
You get your pleasures where you can these days.....
Interesting thread by that Belarus journalist that the entire Russian/Belarus build up is a feint. To attract Ukr troops from the south/east and weaken those fronts
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
That’s not his style. He escalates
I said it was a feint several days ago.
This war is lost. It has been one military disaster after another. He has been lied to repeatedly and for decades about the reality of the Ru army machine and now the whole world knows.
I wonder if he is surprised by what has happened or did he deep down know that everything his generals and aides were telling him was all lies?
I suppose the one thing Liz Truss can take from today is that if you add up all of Gordon Brown's terrible days - the Bigoted Woman incident, the orange blob, the address to the nation in which he was told to smile, the car crash ppb, farmy farm, phonegate, the day on which he started listing, alphabetically, every single person in the UK in order to explain that he hated everyone without discrimination*, Liz's day today wasn't quite as bad as all of that put together. But I don't think any PM has had such a bad, embarassing, weird single day as this that I can remember.
*one or two things on this list may by mythical.
Worse than Friday's then?
In all honesty I was out on Friday (a nice day on the moors above Manchester) and only heard the odd snippet until I came home. I didn't get to see the shambles unfolding in the same way.
I was just coming down from the Isle of Skye when poor Mordaunt was answering the same question 30 times or more. Signal was happily extremely patchy at that point. I was nearer to Perth when Hunt gave his statement and got nearly all of it.
He was good , I thought. After the pantomime of the last couple of weeks it was nice to hear an adult again. Reeves wasn’t great. It was almost as if she was befuddled by the number of points she wanted to make and she ended up somewhat scatter gun and incoherent.
If the markets remain calm tomorrow it might be a good day to move Truss on and put together a real team.
I thought this was a truly outstanding performance by Jeremy Hunt. He has mastered his brief over the course of a few days. Managed to project an image of economic competence from a near impossible starting point. If the tories had the will to win again they would make him PM. It is no good just having a 'good communicator', you need a good leader and he is it.
I wouldn't get carried away, and the damage done feels terminal, but he has at least given the impression of having gotten on top of the detail quickly.
With all respect to Truss and Kwarteng, who are probably very able people, their deer in the headlights act on the reaction to their plans, and attempts to avoid the OBR and the like, gave the impression they needed a lot more time to get on top of things, but hadn't bothered to wait.
I suppose the one thing Liz Truss can take from today is that if you add up all of Gordon Brown's terrible days - the Bigoted Woman incident, the orange blob, the address to the nation in which he was told to smile, the car crash ppb, farmy farm, phonegate, the day on which he started listing, alphabetically, every single person in the UK in order to explain that he hated everyone without discrimination*, Liz's day today wasn't quite as bad as all of that put together. But I don't think any PM has had such a bad, embarassing, weird single day as this that I can remember.
*one or two things on this list may by mythical.
Worse than Friday's then?
Getting worse. The trend is not her friend.
Like the Russian peasant who was asked how his day was: "not as good as yesterday, but better than tommorow"
Nobody cares. Why not have a go at dealing with reality rather than made up questions?
No. Go on tell me what you think Corbyn would have been like from 2019 to 2022. I think you know damn well he'd have been a disaster.
Nobody cares. I would rather think about how we can undo the current mess. Truss and Boris were actual disasters.
Yes. Even in politics, actual undeniable disasters are WAY more than significant credible theoretical disasters.
From the day that Truss & Kwarteng (remember him) tanked the Pound, Tory incantations of Corbyn! Corbyn! Corbyn! became worthless in appealing to anyone beyond paid-up Tory members.
And it is not like Corbyn had exactly unalloyed support from the Labour Party. There was a sizeable rump (of which NickP of this parish is our local representative) who support his brand of Socialism, plus an assortment of arriviste 10 quidders who came from the SWP to do damage. But the bulk of Labour are still Co-ops and Fabians and that is why they have found it so easy to regroup post Corbyn.
It is not clear that this is true of the post-Johnson Tory party.
I take this as Wallace being out the running. Very notable that he doesn't say he wants Truss to remain! Personally think he'll become NATO SG at some point in the future.
NEW: Ben Wallace says he wants to remain as Defence Secretary
I suppose the one thing Liz Truss can take from today is that if you add up all of Gordon Brown's terrible days - the Bigoted Woman incident, the orange blob, the address to the nation in which he was told to smile, the car crash ppb, farmy farm, phonegate, the day on which he started listing, alphabetically, every single person in the UK in order to explain that he hated everyone without discrimination*, Liz's day today wasn't quite as bad as all of that put together. But I don't think any PM has had such a bad, embarassing, weird single day as this that I can remember.
*one or two things on this list may by mythical.
Worse than Friday's then?
In all honesty I was out on Friday (a nice day on the moors above Manchester) and only heard the odd snippet until I came home. I didn't get to see the shambles unfolding in the same way.
Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie · 1h The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
There'll be plenty of think tank jobs available for them, though lord knows what they do all day when they might as well release the same press release every time the government announces 'normal' things.
What is the total number of people self employed in the UK? What is the number of people affected by IR35?
From my own experience most self employed people have relatively modest earnings. I'm no expert on IR35 but I doubt it's a fraction of the self employed total in this country. To equate IR35 with a war on the self employed is ridiculous.
Note: This is not a defence of IR35. Maybe it needs to go. But how many people does it affect?
Has there ever be a bigger bucket of ice cold water of reality pitched over a PM's head than Hunt delivered today? Voodoo Truss economics drowned like kittens in a sack in a single half hour.
I was just coming down from the Isle of Skye when poor Mordaunt was answering the same question 30 times or more. Signal was happily extremely patchy at that point. I was nearer to Perth when Hunt gave his statement and got nearly all of it.
He was good , I thought. After the pantomime of the last couple of weeks it was nice to hear an adult again. Reeves wasn’t great. It was almost as if she was befuddled by the number of points she wanted to make and she ended up somewhat scatter gun and incoherent.
If the markets remain calm tomorrow it might be a good day to move Truss on and put together a real team.
I thought this was a truly outstanding performance by Jeremy Hunt. He has mastered his brief over the course of a few days. Managed to project an image of economic competence from a near impossible starting point. If the tories had the will to win again they would make him PM. It is no good just having a 'good communicator', you need a good leader and he is it.
I wouldn't get carried away, and the damage done feels terminal, but he has at least given the impression of having gotten on top of the detail quickly.
With all respect to Truss and Kwarteng, who are probably very able people, their deer in the headlights act on the reaction to their plans, and attempts to avoid the OBR and the like, gave the impression they needed a lot more time to get on top of things, but hadn't bothered to wait.
All Hunt did was to reverse the mini-budget, and to humiliate the PM by shredding every one of her promises. There were no new ideas, just an attempt to turn back the clock.
Interesting thread by that Belarus journalist that the entire Russian/Belarus build up is a feint. To attract Ukr troops from the south/east and weaken those fronts
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
That’s not his style. He escalates
I said it was a feint several days ago.
This war is lost. It has been one military disaster after another. He has been lied to repeatedly and for decades about the reality of the Ru army machine and now the whole world knows.
I wonder if he is surprised by what has happened or did he deep down know that everything his generals and aides were telling him was all lies?
He is probably genuinely surprised/impressed at just how much his klepto-buddies had skimmed off the military. Whole armies don't exist except on paper.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
Fuck the grassroots. Other than the Waffen SS I cannot think of a more loathsome contemptible and damaging group of individuals in the last 100 years.
Johnson's last cabinet does it for me. Truly late stage Conservatism.
Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary – Dominic Raab Chancellor – Nadhim Zahawi Home Secretary – Priti Patel Foreign Secretary – Liz Truss Health Secretary – Steve Barclay Education Secretary – James Cleverly Defence Secretary – Ben Wallace Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – Kit Malthouse Levelling Up Secretary – Greg Clark Transport Secretary – Grant Shapps Business Secretary – Kwasi Kwarteng COP26 President – Alok Sharma Trade Secretary – Anne-Marie Trevelyan Work and Pensions Secretary – Thérèse Coffey Environment Secretary – George Eustice Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Secretary – Nadine Dorries Northern Ireland Secretary – Shailesh Vara Scotland Secretary – Alister Jack Wales Secretary – Sir Robert Buckland Leader of the House of Lords – Baroness Evans of Bowes Park Minister for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency – Jacob Rees-Mogg
Has there ever be a bigger bucket of ice cold water of reality pitched over a PM's head than Hunt delivered today? Voodoo Truss economics drowned like kittens in a sack in a single half hour.
Look at the Telegraph:
It is a rare case of political reporting not being hyperbolic enough. I mean, it's simply crazy when you break it down - the PM is sat there, tacitly endorsing the exact opposite of what she has been claiming for weeks.
Yes, 'changing circumstances' and all that, difficult decisions, but she was essentially saying we could spend spend spend with less and less tax, because growth yo, and Hunt is one step from claiming people should eat their smallest child to get through the winter to come.
Interesting thread by that Belarus journalist that the entire Russian/Belarus build up is a feint. To attract Ukr troops from the south/east and weaken those fronts
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
That’s not his style. He escalates
I said it was a feint several days ago.
This war is lost. It has been one military disaster after another. He has been lied to repeatedly and for decades about the reality of the Ru army machine and now the whole world knows.
I wonder if he is surprised by what has happened or did he deep down know that everything his generals and aides were telling him was all lies?
So Putin is just going to accept the war is lost? If this is a feint that’s the implication. Because whats his other plan to turn all this around? Simply pouring more troops into the southern front means more Russians die in the meat grinder… and he still loses. And is likely deposed and maybe killed
He needs a game changer - a whole new way this war is fought - and he needs it fast
I stand by my prediction he will pound Ukraine with drones to degrade their energy supplies, then invade from the north
Because he ain’t got any alternative (conventional)
Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie · 1h The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
There'll be plenty of think tank jobs available for them, though lord knows what they do all day when they might as well release the same press release every time the government announces 'normal' things.
I guess the IEA will, like communists, just say that Truss implemented things the wrong way and true free market Atlas Shrugged stuff is coming to save us all from serfdom.
I was just coming down from the Isle of Skye when poor Mordaunt was answering the same question 30 times or more. Signal was happily extremely patchy at that point. I was nearer to Perth when Hunt gave his statement and got nearly all of it.
He was good , I thought. After the pantomime of the last couple of weeks it was nice to hear an adult again. Reeves wasn’t great. It was almost as if she was befuddled by the number of points she wanted to make and she ended up somewhat scatter gun and incoherent.
If the markets remain calm tomorrow it might be a good day to move Truss on and put together a real team.
I thought this was a truly outstanding performance by Jeremy Hunt. He has mastered his brief over the course of a few days. Managed to project an image of economic competence from a near impossible starting point. If the tories had the will to win again they would make him PM. It is no good just having a 'good communicator', you need a good leader and he is it.
I wouldn't get carried away, and the damage done feels terminal, but he has at least given the impression of having gotten on top of the detail quickly.
With all respect to Truss and Kwarteng, who are probably very able people, their deer in the headlights act on the reaction to their plans, and attempts to avoid the OBR and the like, gave the impression they needed a lot more time to get on top of things, but hadn't bothered to wait.
All Hunt did was to reverse the mini-budget, and to humiliate the PM by shredding every one of her promises. There were no new ideas, just an attempt to turn back the clock.
New ideas are not automatically better, as we have just seen amply demonstrated.
It's been quite the demonstration of how there might be consensus the current path is not working well, but that doesn't mean that path heading over the cliff edge is a better alternative.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
I would have more sympathy if this was not entirely her own bloody fault. Nobody made her stand as leader, kiss hands, and tank the economy. She wanted all this, and now she's got it.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
Which is why she can't stay even as a figurehead. Someone (everyone?) must have told her this interview was a bad idea. And yet she did it. A PM can do that.
What is the total number of people self employed in the UK? What is the number of people affected by IR35?
From my own experience most self employed people have relatively modest earnings. I'm no expert on IR35 but I doubt it's a fraction of the self employed total in this country. To equate IR35 with a war on the self employed is ridiculous.
Note: This is not a defence of IR35. Maybe it needs to go. But how many people does it affect?
Best estimate I’ve seen is 1 million or so, it’s based on multiple datapoints one of which was the 1.6million self employed and unable rot claim furlough money back in 2020.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
I would have more sympathy if this was not entirely her own bloody fault. Nobody made her stand as leader, kiss hands, and tank the economy. She wanted all this, and now she's got it.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
Then let her quit, go home and take a nap.
BTW, in tonight's interview, did she ever say where the heck she was when she wasn't where she damn well should have been?
If Truss had shut up and played the hostage role she seems to have been painted into, she might have bought herself a little bit of time as the Conservative party tried to steady the ship with Hunt as de facto PM and her just silent in the background saying as little as possible for as long as possible.
Doing interviews where you start talking about leading the party into the next election seems to be just inviting everyone to fire you immediately so that you can get that delusion lanced as quickly as possible.
Interesting thread by that Belarus journalist that the entire Russian/Belarus build up is a feint. To attract Ukr troops from the south/east and weaken those fronts
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
That’s not his style. He escalates
I said it was a feint several days ago.
This war is lost. It has been one military disaster after another. He has been lied to repeatedly and for decades about the reality of the Ru army machine and now the whole world knows.
I wonder if he is surprised by what has happened or did he deep down know that everything his generals and aides were telling him was all lies?
So Putin is just going to accept the war is lost? If this is a feint that’s the implication. Because whats his other plan to turn all this around? Simply pouring more troops into the southern front means more Russians die in the meat grinder… and he still loses. And is likely deposed and maybe killed
He needs a game changer - a whole new way this war is fought - and he needs it fast
I stand by my prediction he will pound Ukraine with drones to degrade their energy supplies, then invade from the north
Because he ain’t got any alternative (conventional)
We shall see….
The drones used in the last couple of days have mainly been used as terror weapons. Seemingly they don't seem to have much else left.
i think this is what Farage means when he talks about a globalist coup
Lots of chatter around in Tory circles speculating about the degree to which Sunakites with City links may have deliberately stoked the market run against Truss/Kwarteng.
Sunak was a relatively junior guy at TCI, which deals solely in equities. The idea that he could affect the bond market for political purposes is utterly ridiculous.
Why would the spivs prefer Sunak to Kwarteng? If anything you'd expect them to prefer Kwarteng's tax cutting for personal reasons. Ultimately they're capitalists who want to make money. Not lending at favourable rates of interest to a government that has no plan to bring down the debt burden and presumably would inflate/devalue it away.
You make a good point: Kwarteng (Odey Asset Management) is at least as plugged into that world as Sunak.
I think if there was a conspiracy afoot, Kwasi would have been at the heart of it. He's behaved like a remote operated IED device at the heart of the Truss project. Weird things like his meeting with Hedge Fund Managers too. What puzzles about the theory is whether there's sufficient reward in it for him to have also thrown his own reputation on the fire.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
I would have more sympathy if this was not entirely her own bloody fault. Nobody made her stand as leader, kiss hands, and tank the economy. She wanted all this, and now she's got it.
This is like the idiot who has had too much to drink ending up wrecking his car, in A&E, and arrested. Sympathy is hard to conjure up.
Any PM candidate is going to have to be a team player because Hunt isn’t going to be moveable from the Treasury now and has a clear grip on fiscal policy. So their role as PM is going to be presentational and tone-setting.
For that reason I think Penny is the best fit for them. Has the best chance of giving them a 200-240 seat result IMHO.
What does the 2024 manifesto say? Where's the vision for Britain? If it's all managerial with a token figurehead PR PM balancing an uneasy truce, that is unlikely to work.
In my view the hack doesn't work, the Tories have to choose which way they want to go and deal with the consequences.
Given that Hunt's original leadership platform was not a million miles away from Truss's, we might end up with Trussism by the back door, but with collegiate decision making and competent execution.
He came 8th out of 8
Which was, frankly, ridiculous. He has gone from the back benches to Chancellor in a time of genuine crisis and not even broken sweat. Not sure any of the other 7 could have done that. Maybe Rishi.
I'm no great fan, but agreed. And I though he performed today far more convincingly than Mordaunt, FWIW.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
Which is why she can't stay even as a figurehead. Someone (everyone?) must have told her this interview was a bad idea. And yet she did it. A PM can do that.
One thing we have learnt is that she is surrounded by some of the worst aides and advisors in the history of politics. Every step has been a disaster since the minute she took office.
Any PM candidate is going to have to be a team player because Hunt isn’t going to be moveable from the Treasury now and has a clear grip on fiscal policy. So their role as PM is going to be presentational and tone-setting.
For that reason I think Penny is the best fit for them. Has the best chance of giving them a 200-240 seat result IMHO.
What does the 2024 manifesto say? Where's the vision for Britain? If it's all managerial with a token figurehead PR PM balancing an uneasy truce, that is unlikely to work.
In my view the hack doesn't work, the Tories have to choose which way they want to go and deal with the consequences.
Given that Hunt's original leadership platform was not a million miles away from Truss's, we might end up with Trussism by the back door, but with collegiate decision making and competent execution.
He came 8th out of 8
Which was, frankly, ridiculous. He has gone from the back benches to Chancellor in a time of genuine crisis and not even broken sweat. Not sure any of the other 7 could have done that. Maybe Rishi.
I'm no great fan, but agreed. And I though he performed today far more convincingly than Mordaunt, FWIW.
Hunt would make a good leader of a party other than the Conservatives. I don't know what party, or if a suitable party even exists in the UK, but he's got the knack.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
I would have more sympathy if this was not entirely her own bloody fault. Nobody made her stand as leader, kiss hands, and tank the economy. She wanted all this, and now she's got it.
Oh I agree. But that doesn’t stop the whole thing feeling horrible on a basic human level. She thought she was genuinely good. Her whole career built up to this moment. Now tarnished.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
True, but the pressure's off now.
She never has to make another decision again without running it past other people.
Six Russians have been arrested in Norway, apparently on suspicion of spying, following a number of alleged drone sightings near gas and oil infrastructure. They are
* a Russian-Israeli man arrested at the Norwegian-Russian border with two drones "and several data storage units" in his car, 13 Oct * a Russian man arrested the next day * four Russian citizens arrested prior to those two "on suspicion of illegally photographing classified facilities", but whose arrests were not publicly announced until today.
If we assume the above is true, there must be a reason why the first guy didn't dump the drones. And was there no better way of getting the data out than carrying it out in his car?
Interesting thread by that Belarus journalist that the entire Russian/Belarus build up is a feint. To attract Ukr troops from the south/east and weaken those fronts
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
That’s not his style. He escalates
I said it was a feint several days ago.
This war is lost. It has been one military disaster after another. He has been lied to repeatedly and for decades about the reality of the Ru army machine and now the whole world knows.
I wonder if he is surprised by what has happened or did he deep down know that everything his generals and aides were telling him was all lies?
So Putin is just going to accept the war is lost? If this is a feint that’s the implication. Because whats his other plan to turn all this around? Simply pouring more troops into the southern front means more Russians die in the meat grinder… and he still loses. And is likely deposed and maybe killed
He needs a game changer - a whole new way this war is fought - and he needs it fast
I stand by my prediction he will pound Ukraine with drones to degrade their energy supplies, then invade from the north
Because he ain’t got any alternative (conventional)
We shall see….
The drones used in the last couple of days have mainly been used as terror weapons. Seemingly they don't seem to have much else left.
Today Putine droned a wineshop, killing a pregnant woman, her husband and cat. That ain't going to win him no war.
The invasion route from Belarus has been turned into a kill zone that would make the last attempt look like a victory. The game is up Vlad
Just seen the Truss interview. She is (quite understandably) not ok. At a human level and in the national interest, I hope she has someone close who is looking after her. I think she might have to resign for personal reasons.
I see we are back to the PB Tories luxuriating in their nostalgic fantasies about a bloke that is no longer a Labour MP.
Funny old world.
It's not nostalgia, it's genuinely interesting that Labour supporters won't even entertain the hypothetical quesion of what a Corbyn victory would have been like. After all they were cheering him on three years ago.
The last 8 months of the Ukraine war have made me think a Corybn premiership would have been calamitous. It's the one thing I'll give Johnson some real credit for. Johnson is a lazy, dishonest idiot, but his instincts on the biggest issues were generally right.
It would be a lot easier to believe Labour has changed if they could do some soul searching about such things, that they don't or won't makes me think the change is only skin deep. On here you might not see many "out" Corbyn supporters, but they still seem to be there in large numbers.
Other than trying to deflect from the Tories current debacle what is the point of theorising about what a man who is no longer a Labour MP let alone Labour leader might do if he had been elected 3 years ago?
I agree with you that that he would have made a very poor PM and that's why I didn't vote Labour in 2017 or 2019. However it's what Starmer would do that is relevant now and as far as I am concerned he would be a considerably better option that what I've seem from Johnson and Truss over the last few years. As things stand I would vote Labour if there were a GE tomorrow. Corbyn is no longer relevant to most voters.
Polly Mackenzie @pollymackenzie · 1h The good news is that no one will try libertarian bullshit again for at least 20 years.
It was Truss’s spending profligacy that was her undoing. If this episode has killed anything off, it is the idea that the state doesn’t need to balance the books.
Which buggers Labour's ability to fund its public sector clients.
It's going to be fun watching that.
It is a very foolish to promote the not particularly hilarious notion that Labour, should they win the next election, will be unable to manage the economy because we (the Tories) have written off the nation''s finances and to quote Labour f***wit Liam Byrne there is no money left. What a laugh! It really shouldn't be a game.
It makes no odds to the likes of you and me if inflation and mortgage rates hit double figures. It won't trouble you and me if energy becomes so expensive that some will turn the heating off. Such issues will be minor inconveniences. However there are plenty of people who will be affected. Children going hungry and the fearful elderly dying of hypothermia as they turn off their boilers. That is just plain wrong in 2022 Britain. Truss and her cabinet (until Hunt's arrival) viewed government as a joke (the anti- growth coalition) as did Johnson before her. We deserve better.
I am sure you are right that Labour is **** but they are at least attempting to take things seriously after years of half-wittery. Labour deserved their spanking in the RedWall in 2019 and their drubbing (as the Party of Remain) in the EURef. for their decades of letting the poor and the dispossessed down, and throughout the UK. The Conservatives are not alone in their current casuality. I am watching Nippy talking utter bollocks on ITV news. The children of Britain deserve better. I am not sure another decade or two of hubristic Conservatives is the answer however.
Interesting thread by that Belarus journalist that the entire Russian/Belarus build up is a feint. To attract Ukr troops from the south/east and weaken those fronts
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
That’s not his style. He escalates
That's very much the Fiona Hill view:
Another hallmark of Putin is that he doubles down. He always takes the more extreme step in his range of options, the one that actually cuts off other alternatives. Putin has often related an experience he had as a kid, when he trapped a rat in a corner in the apartment building he lived in, in Leningrad, and the rat shocked him by jumping out and fighting back. He tells this story as if it’s a story about himself, that if he’s ever cornered, he will always fight back.
But he’s also the person who puts himself in the corner. We know that the Russians have had very high casualties and that they’ve been running out of manpower and equipment in Ukraine. The casualty rate on the Russian side keeps mounting. A few months ago, estimates were 50,000. Now the suggestions are 90,000 killed and many more injured. This is a real blow given the 170,000 Russia troops deployed to the Ukrainian border when the invasion began.
Just seen the Truss interview. She is (quite understandably) not ok. At a human level and in the national interest, I hope she has someone close who is looking after her. I think she might have to resign for personal reasons.
Exactly. She looks broken. For her sake. I hope she sails off into the distance, a permanently fixed feature upon many a pub quiz
"It's time for the wise men and women of the Conservative Party to decide whether the loss of confidence in Ms Truss is terminal. If it is, they must come to a solution - and fast - that can command the support of MPs and the millions of Tory voters looking on in horror."
Despite the slightly comical turns of phrase here ("wise men and women"? / "whether the loss of confidence.. is terminal"? . "millions of Tory voters"?) the fact the DM is publishing something like that should tell the party everything they need to know. She needs to go.
"I'll lead the Party into the next election." Yes, Liz.
She might call one tommorow...
Then the sequence of Tory PMs would run
* Old Etonian * female who calls election in bid for strength and stability and loses seats * Old Etonian * female who calls election for goodness knows what reason and loses seats
If Sunak does get it it will have to be by coronation and an attempt to save the furniture, rather like when Kevin Rudd replaced Julia Gillard before the 2013 Australian election
"I'll lead the Party into the next election." Yes, Liz.
She might call one tommorow...
Then the sequence of Tory PMs would run
* Old Etonian * female who calls election in bid for strength and stability and loses seats * Old Etonian * female who calls election for goodness knows what reason and loses seats
Or Old Etonian, state educated woman, Old Etonian, comprehensive educated woman, Wykehamist if Sunak gets it
"I'll lead the Party into the next election." Yes, Liz.
She might call one tommorow...
Then the sequence of Tory PMs would run
* Old Etonian * female who calls election in bid for strength and stability and loses seats * Old Etonian * female who calls election for goodness knows what reason and loses seats
May was 20+ points ahead when she called for a GE, but ended up only a few points ahead. Truss is 20+ points behind (at least!) were she to call for a GE, so would end up only a few points behind?
"I'll lead the Party into the next election." Yes, Liz.
She might call one tommorow...
Then the sequence of Tory PMs would run
* Old Etonian * female who calls election in bid for strength and stability and loses seats * Old Etonian * female who calls election for goodness knows what reason and loses seats
Or Old Etonian, state educated woman, Old Etonian, comprehensive educated woman, Wykehamist if Sunak gets it
Interesting thread by that Belarus journalist that the entire Russian/Belarus build up is a feint. To attract Ukr troops from the south/east and weaken those fronts
Could be
However, I’m not sure I buy it (even as I respect his inside knowledge). Because Putin is losing the war and an all out direct-route attack on kyiv from the north is the last conventional throw of the die - or rather the last one that might win for Russia (tho I doubt Putin would win, but at least he’d have a chance)
If it is however a feint, and Putin does not attack, I can’t see how Putin has ANY chance of winning. What other move is there? In that case he is condemning himself and Russia to a long grinding attritional winter that ends in defeat for him
That’s not his style. He escalates
I said it was a feint several days ago.
This war is lost. It has been one military disaster after another. He has been lied to repeatedly and for decades about the reality of the Ru army machine and now the whole world knows.
I wonder if he is surprised by what has happened or did he deep down know that everything his generals and aides were telling him was all lies?
So Putin is just going to accept the war is lost? If this is a feint that’s the implication. Because whats his other plan to turn all this around? Simply pouring more troops into the southern front means more Russians die in the meat grinder… and he still loses. And is likely deposed and maybe killed
He needs a game changer - a whole new way this war is fought - and he needs it fast
I stand by my prediction he will pound Ukraine with drones to degrade their energy supplies, then invade from the north
Because he ain’t got any alternative (conventional)
We shall see….
The drones used in the last couple of days have mainly been used as terror weapons. Seemingly they don't seem to have much else left.
Russias plan is to pound ukrainian infrastructure i think so much of ukraine will have disruoted power during the winter
Someone who scuppered anti up-skirting and anti FGM legislation because he doesn't like Private Member's Bills from Opposition MPs. He doesn't believe Private Member's Bills to be Parliamentary unless they are supported by his friends. A disgusting and wretched clown. Probably my most contemptible MP. since Terry Dicks, although Andrew Bridgen runs him close.
Very hard for Truss. Control has very much gone from her, and the worse thing is that the somewhat inevitable poll recovery will be credited to the presence of rat eyes.
She needs big policy announcements, and this will be tricky, given that Hunt and the Treasury penny-pinchers may try to scuttle such notions.
Rees Mogg at BEIS is an ally and may work with her on some key announcements, particularly on energy liberalisation, which I think Hunt would struggle to interfere with in the current circs.
I would suggest that firstly, she sticks to Hunt like glue. It's very hard that she'll be treated as the unwanted dinner guest, but she needs to monitor everything going on at the Treasury and be a part of anything positive. A wider reshuffle might help, to (carefully) attempt to install some of her own people there.
She also needs to go out and meet the public and the media, even if she gets rotten tomatoes thrown at her. She is still a very new PM. The public respect guts.
If she manages survival, she'll still be PM when Hunt is as popular as a dogshit sandwich, and she'll be able to sack him.
"I'll lead the Party into the next election." Yes, Liz.
She might call one tommorow...
Then the sequence of Tory PMs would run
* Old Etonian * female who calls election in bid for strength and stability and loses seats * Old Etonian * female who calls election for goodness knows what reason and loses seats
Or Old Etonian, state educated woman, Old Etonian, comprehensive educated woman, Wykehamist if Sunak gets it
"I'll lead the Party into the next election." Yes, Liz.
She might call one tommorow...
Then the sequence of Tory PMs would run
* Old Etonian * female who calls election in bid for strength and stability and loses seats * Old Etonian * female who calls election for goodness knows what reason and loses seats
Or Old Etonian, state educated woman, Old Etonian, comprehensive educated woman, Wykehamist if Sunak gets it
Has there ever be a bigger bucket of ice cold water of reality pitched over a PM's head than Hunt delivered today? Voodoo Truss economics drowned like kittens in a sack in a single half hour.
Look at the Telegraph:
You know that Jim Callaghan nailed it:
We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step.
Very hard for Truss. Control has very much gone from her, and the worse thing is that the somewhat inevitable poll recovery will be credited to the presence of rat eyes.
She needs big policy announcements, and this will be tricky, given that Hunt and the Treasury penny-pinchers may try to scuttle such notions.
Rees Mogg at BEIS is an ally and may work with her on some key announcements, particularly on energy liberalisation, which I think Hunt would struggle to interfere with in the current circs.
I would suggest that firstly, she sticks to Hunt like glue. It's very hard that she'll be treated as the unwanted dinner guest, but she needs to monitor everything going on at the Treasury and be a part of anything positive. A wider reshuffle might help, to (carefully) attempt to install some of her own people there.
She also needs to go out and meet the public and the media, even if she gets rotten tomatoes thrown at her. She is still a very new PM. The public respect guts.
If she manages survival, she'll still be PM when Hunt is as popular as a dogshit sandwich, and she'll be able to sack him.
Truss is never going to be in the position you suggest - indeed she will be out of office very shortly
Her mps have to act and bring an end to this dreadful saga and not least for Truss's own mental health
It needs to happen now
Well, Daily Mail, by running Frosties wrecking ball on Mordaunt, you own this Trussterfuck.
Fuck off - and take your peerage hopes with you.
Well yes. The Tory Party needs to speak truth to the Mail, Express and Telegraph. It'll be like Callaghan to the Unions. And Kinnock to Militant. Not holding my breath, mind. A month ago this was a Budget for the Ages. Leading to a decade of prosperity. They are deluded. And need telt.
It's a bit fucking bonkers that before anyone visits PB they first need to check the BBC News website just in case their first post is something along the lines of I expect her to go by next Feb only to be told that she actually resigned 45 minutes ago.
The whole Truss interview is deeply uncomfortable. She is useless, yes, but I am not sure putting us all through this charade is fair on her. She must be absolutely exhausted
I would have more sympathy if this was not entirely her own bloody fault. Nobody made her stand as leader, kiss hands, and tank the economy. She wanted all this, and now she's got it.
Oh I agree. But that doesn’t stop the whole thing feeling horrible on a basic human level. She thought she was genuinely good. Her whole career built up to this moment. Now tarnished.
I don't know whether you fancy yourself a subtle penman, but you're not. Nobody reading this is going to think you're feeling anything 'on a basic human level' - you're enjoying a victorious wank at what you perceive to be the humiliation of a political opponent. The same goes for the other multitude of posters 'feeling this on a basic human level' - I think it's fair to say 'fuck off' on Truss's behalf.
The "I will lead us into next election" interview while looking broken is the final straw surely?
As wikipedia (and stodge) could tell us, there are elections around the globe all the time. The Slovenian Presidential election is this Sunday, perhaps that is the election Liz means to lead the Tories up to.
"I'll lead the Party into the next election." Yes, Liz.
She might call one tommorow...
Then the sequence of Tory PMs would run
* Old Etonian * female who calls election in bid for strength and stability and loses seats * Old Etonian * female who calls election for goodness knows what reason and loses seats
May was 20+ points ahead when she called for a GE, but ended up only a few points ahead. Truss is 20+ points behind (at least!) were she to call for a GE, so would end up only a few points behind?
Would be a creative idea at least.
I don't understand why some people think there's a sizeable chance that Truss will call a GE in the near future. If she does, though, she will lose seats as May did but also hand a majority to Labour, as May didn't.
It's a bit fucking bonkers that before anyone visits PB they first need to check the BBC News website just in case their first post is something along the lines of I expect her to go by next Feb only to be told that she actually resigned 45 minutes ago.
Spot on - each time I log on and she remains I have this deep seated anger and hope that while I am posting Sky or BBC newsflash
The "I will lead us into next election" interview while looking broken is the final straw surely?
As wikipedia (and stodge) coudl tell us, there are elections around the globe all the time. The Slovenian Presidential election is this Sunday, perhaps that is the election Liz means to lead the Tories up to.
I think Sunday is looking quite optimistic to be frank...
Very hard for Truss. Control has very much gone from her, and the worse thing is that the somewhat inevitable poll recovery will be credited to the presence of rat eyes.
She needs big policy announcements, and this will be tricky, given that Hunt and the Treasury penny-pinchers may try to scuttle such notions.
Rees Mogg at BEIS is an ally and may work with her on some key announcements, particularly on energy liberalisation, which I think Hunt would struggle to interfere with in the current circs.
I would suggest that firstly, she sticks to Hunt like glue. It's very hard that she'll be treated as the unwanted dinner guest, but she needs to monitor everything going on at the Treasury and be a part of anything positive. A wider reshuffle might help, to (carefully) attempt to install some of her own people there.
She also needs to go out and meet the public and the media, even if she gets rotten tomatoes thrown at her. She is still a very new PM. The public respect guts.
If she manages survival, she'll still be PM when Hunt is as popular as a dogshit sandwich, and she'll be able to sack him.
Truss is never going to be in the position you suggest - indeed she will be out of office very shortly
Perhaps, perhaps not.
I still rate her - her intentions anyway. Her biggest mistake was to install Kwarteng. We'll never know what lead to that, but Achilles heel doesn't come close.
Can't think who she'd have had though. I'd maybe have gone for Hunt from the beginning, but move economic growth to a No. 10 unit as Badenoch proposed.
Comments
This war is lost. It has been one military disaster after another. He has been lied to repeatedly and for decades about the reality of the Ru army machine and now the whole world knows.
I wonder if he is surprised by what has happened or did he deep down know that everything his generals and aides were telling him was all lies?
Imagine what Andrew Neil or Paxman in their pomp would have done.
Dreadfully sad.
With all respect to Truss and Kwarteng, who are probably very able people, their deer in the headlights act on the reaction to their plans, and attempts to avoid the OBR and the like, gave the impression they needed a lot more time to get on top of things, but hadn't bothered to wait.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5A6SjKNHIk
This guy is a laugh riot!
There are a very significant number of Truss voters who are still hiding behind the sofa, replying to nobody about anything.
It is not clear that this is true of the post-Johnson Tory party.
Indeed.
Friday was bad.
What is the total number of people self employed in the UK?
What is the number of people affected by IR35?
From my own experience most self employed people have relatively modest earnings. I'm no expert on IR35 but I doubt it's a fraction of the self employed total in this country. To equate IR35 with a war on the self employed is ridiculous.
Note: This is not a defence of IR35. Maybe it needs to go. But how many people does it affect?
Look at the Telegraph:
Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary – Dominic Raab
Chancellor – Nadhim Zahawi
Home Secretary – Priti Patel
Foreign Secretary – Liz Truss
Health Secretary – Steve Barclay
Education Secretary – James Cleverly
Defence Secretary – Ben Wallace
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – Kit Malthouse
Levelling Up Secretary – Greg Clark
Transport Secretary – Grant Shapps
Business Secretary – Kwasi Kwarteng
COP26 President – Alok Sharma
Trade Secretary – Anne-Marie Trevelyan
Work and Pensions Secretary – Thérèse Coffey
Environment Secretary – George Eustice
Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Secretary – Nadine Dorries
Northern Ireland Secretary – Shailesh Vara
Scotland Secretary – Alister Jack
Wales Secretary – Sir Robert Buckland
Leader of the House of Lords – Baroness Evans of Bowes Park
Minister for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency – Jacob Rees-Mogg
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/who-new-cabinet-full-list-ministers-appointed-boris-johnson-1731738
Yes, 'changing circumstances' and all that, difficult decisions, but she was essentially saying we could spend spend spend with less and less tax, because growth yo, and Hunt is one step from claiming people should eat their smallest child to get through the winter to come.
He needs a game changer - a whole new way this war is fought - and he needs it fast
I stand by my prediction he will pound Ukraine with drones to degrade their energy supplies, then invade from the north
Because he ain’t got any alternative (conventional)
We shall see….
It's been quite the demonstration of how there might be consensus the current path is not working well, but that doesn't mean that path heading over the cliff edge is a better alternative.
Someone (everyone?) must have told her this interview was a bad idea. And yet she did it.
A PM can do that.
BTW, in tonight's interview, did she ever say where the heck she was when she wasn't where she damn well should have been?
Doing interviews where you start talking about leading the party into the next election seems to be just inviting everyone to fire you immediately so that you can get that delusion lanced as quickly as possible.
And I though he performed today far more convincingly than Mordaunt, FWIW.
She never has to make another decision again without running it past other people.
* a Russian-Israeli man arrested at the Norwegian-Russian border with two drones "and several data storage units" in his car, 13 Oct
* a Russian man arrested the next day
* four Russian citizens arrested prior to those two "on suspicion of illegally photographing classified facilities", but whose arrests were not publicly announced until today.
If we assume the above is true, there must be a reason why the first guy didn't dump the drones. And was there no better way of getting the data out than carrying it out in his car?
The invasion route from Belarus has been turned into a kill zone that would make the last attempt look like a victory. The game is up Vlad
I agree with you that that he would have made a very poor PM and that's why I didn't vote Labour in 2017 or 2019. However it's what Starmer would do that is relevant now and as far as I am concerned he would be a considerably better option that what I've seem from Johnson and Truss over the last few years. As things stand I would vote Labour if there were a GE tomorrow. Corbyn is no longer relevant to most voters.
It makes no odds to the likes of you and me if inflation and mortgage rates hit double figures. It won't trouble you and me if energy becomes so expensive that some will turn the heating off. Such issues will be minor inconveniences. However there are plenty of people who will be affected. Children going hungry and the fearful elderly dying of hypothermia as they turn off their boilers. That is just plain wrong in 2022 Britain. Truss and her cabinet (until Hunt's arrival) viewed government as a joke (the anti- growth coalition) as did Johnson before her. We deserve better.
I am sure you are right that Labour is **** but they are at least attempting to take things seriously after years of half-wittery. Labour deserved their spanking in the RedWall in 2019 and their drubbing (as the Party of Remain) in the EURef. for their decades of letting the poor and the dispossessed down, and throughout the UK. The Conservatives are not alone in their current casuality. I am watching Nippy talking utter bollocks on ITV news. The children of Britain deserve better. I am not sure another decade or two of hubristic Conservatives is the answer however.
Another hallmark of Putin is that he doubles down. He always takes the more extreme step in his range of options, the one that actually cuts off other alternatives. Putin has often related an experience he had as a kid, when he trapped a rat in a corner in the apartment building he lived in, in Leningrad, and the rat shocked him by jumping out and fighting back. He tells this story as if it’s a story about himself, that if he’s ever cornered, he will always fight back.
But he’s also the person who puts himself in the corner. We know that the Russians have had very high casualties and that they’ve been running out of manpower and equipment in Ukraine. The casualty rate on the Russian side keeps mounting. A few months ago, estimates were 50,000. Now the suggestions are 90,000 killed and many more injured. This is a real blow given the 170,000 Russia troops deployed to the Ukrainian border when the invasion began.
From the must read Politico interview - https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/17/fiona-hill-putin-war-00061894
https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1582116679512772608?s=61&t=FcrhzbWCKZSdu-hoMdowjQ
Despite the slightly comical turns of phrase here ("wise men and women"? / "whether the loss of confidence.. is terminal"? . "millions of Tory voters"?) the fact the DM is publishing something like that should tell the party everything they need to know. She needs to go.
* Old Etonian
* female who calls election in bid for strength and stability and loses seats
* Old Etonian
* female who calls election for goodness knows what reason and loses seats
Her mps have to act and bring an end to this dreadful saga and not least for Truss's own mental health
It needs to happen now
It's over.
Truss is 20+ points behind (at least!) were she to call for a GE, so would end up only a few points behind?
Would be a creative idea at least.
3 pages - 279 entries to the list!
Note: almost all of these are old losses - huge thanks to @naalsio26 and @oryxspioenkop
for finding all this content!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1582115008195928064
She needs big policy announcements, and this will be tricky, given that Hunt and the Treasury penny-pinchers may try to scuttle such notions.
Rees Mogg at BEIS is an ally and may work with her on some key announcements, particularly on energy liberalisation, which I think Hunt would struggle to interfere with in the current circs.
I would suggest that firstly, she sticks to Hunt like glue. It's very hard that she'll be treated as the unwanted dinner guest, but she needs to monitor everything going on at the Treasury and be a part of anything positive. A wider reshuffle might help, to (carefully) attempt to install some of her own people there.
She also needs to go out and meet the public and the media, even if she gets rotten tomatoes thrown at her. She is still a very new PM. The public respect guts.
If she manages survival, she'll still be PM when Hunt is as popular as a dogshit sandwich, and she'll be able to sack him.
Brilliant BBC vox pop from Nuneaton on Tory chaos https://twitter.com/GraemeDemianyk/status/1582124253452722178/video/1
Worse.
Worse.
Worse
We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step.
Fuck off - and take your peerage hopes with you.
Their front page the day after the budget;
“At last, a true Tory budget!”
Never wrong about anything. Ever.
The letters to Brady will be off the scale tomorrow.
I will lead us to hold all three safest seats more like.
The Tory Party needs to speak truth to the Mail, Express and Telegraph.
It'll be like Callaghan to the Unions. And Kinnock to Militant. Not holding my breath, mind.
A month ago this was a Budget for the Ages. Leading to a decade of prosperity. They are deluded. And need telt.
Think sunak or hunt as pm will split the party
Mordaunt is untested
Maybe JRM can be brought in for an ultra core vote strategy
And as a life-long Tory, if I can't be angry this week, then when???
' Truss has resigned '
I still rate her - her intentions anyway. Her biggest mistake was to install Kwarteng. We'll never know what lead to that, but Achilles heel doesn't come close.
Can't think who she'd have had though. I'd maybe have gone for Hunt from the beginning, but move economic growth to a No. 10 unit as Badenoch proposed.
Worth a try, I guess, but reeks a bit of desperation.