He got 43% last time and would almost certainly poll more in any new vote given what's happened in the last few weeks.
And the key point is that most Conservative members see it as a social organisation and are not very ideological.
Of course there are plenty of hardcore nutters but they are in the minority.
The are certainly persistent voices pushing for Rishi. It’s somewhat dodgy. You get the impression that a group will keep destabilising the government until they get their man. Thy therefore shouldn’t be allowed near power.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Fuck 'em
They got us into this mess.
Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
Who's going to deliver the leaflets?
I think we've got way beyond worrying about that now.
Fascinating to observe these first few days of the Sunak administration. Ok so he hasn't yet been appointed PM, but these are his policies and his program being hurriedly implemented by Hunt.
Supposedly Mrs Brady already has 100 letters - remind me of the threshold? So he goes to her with that big grin to remove his 3rd Prime Minister. Today. Because this has to stop.
Sunak PM Hunt Chancellor Wallace Foreign Mordaunt Home Running the government as a Quad. It's the unity ticket which enough MPs will back to smash the remaining rebels.
If they don't remove Truss before PMQs they certainly will afterwards. I don't see how this new government will keep power for long, it's basically matricide against the will of the giffer members. But they need to stabilise the ship before an inevitable General Election in the spring.
It only needs 40 Tory MPs to decide an election is better than having yet another PM "without a mandate".
I love the idea Andy but this is surely pure fantasy? What you are basically suggesting is that 40 tory MPs vote themselves out of a job.
I don't think there are 4 Tory MPs with that kind of moral self-sacrifice, let alone 40.
HY is wrong about Major in '97. He dragged it out past the autumn of '96 and then had a 6 week interminable election campaign. None of it helped his cause: the perception of desperately clinging onto power against the evident wishes of the people.
The tories this time face a Canada-style wipeout if they're not careful.
He got 43% last time and would almost certainly poll more in any new vote given what's happened in the last few weeks.
And the key point is that most Conservative members see it as a social organisation and are not very ideological.
Of course there are plenty of hardcore nutters but they are in the minority.
I think if they can’t agree to install Sunak, then it has to be Truss as PMINO. Whether they supported him, or did not, no one can seriously dispute that he’s been proved right - and spectacularly so.
Don’t know about anyone else but I am still firmly on the JK Rowling for PM train. We’ll need to go through (at least) two more disappointing prime ministers first I suppose, one Tory and one Labour.
If the rules are changed so MPs decide between the Final 2 then Rishi's price on Betfair would immediately go well under 1.5.
Now the rules may not be changed but it must be about 50:50 that they will be.
And I maintain he might well win with the members anyway.
There are big similarities with Ed Davey - first time LD members went for Swinson. Second time Moran appeared a much closer fit to members views but they went for Davey by wide margin.
They knew they had to play it safe second time. Same will apply here.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Fuck 'em
They got us into this mess.
Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
The least popular and least affordable bits of the budget ie the corporation tax and higher rate income tax cuts have already been reversed. The cut in the basic rate was actually popular with voters
He got 43% last time and would almost certainly poll more in any new vote given what's happened in the last few weeks.
And the key point is that most Conservative members see it as a social organisation and are not very ideological.
Of course there are plenty of hardcore nutters but they are in the minority.
I think if they can’t agree to install Sunak, then it has to be Truss as PMINO. Whether they supported him, or did not, no one can seriously dispute that he’s been proved right - and spectacularly so.
He has indeed
If Boris hadn't been such a prick and spent time downing Sunak, we might actually have a sensible Prime Minister.
Once again Boris Johnson is partly responsible for the ills of this country.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Fuck 'em
They got us into this mess.
Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
Who's going to deliver the leaflets?
Royal Mail. CCHQ can afford the postage, what with the hedge fund donors to add to the Russian donors.
For all the talk of wanting more borrowing powers, the SNP is extremely fortunate not to have a bond market to instantaneously mark its homework tomorrow*.
Another Monday begins with the overwhelming sense that after the cruelty of austerity, the delusions of Brexit, the moral squalor of partygate, and now market fundamentalists who don’t even understand market fundamentals…..Britain deserves better.
Truss is going nowhere unless she resigns. The current Conservative Party uniting round a single candidate? Or alternatively putting it back to the members? Do me a favour.
Here's the thing: everyone faces extinction if she stays.
So, she won't be allowed to fight a GE and, therefore, Keir Starmer won't be the *next* Prime Minister.
It’s a question purely of timing. If they’re bringing the Special Fiscal Reverse Ferret forward to today (or at least some of it) I think it dents some of the pressure today. The news cycle will be absorbed with it. But it will raise even greater questions about why the heck Truss is even there.
Three key factors to Truss’ departure:
1. How well the markets perform - the more stable they appear the more she will probably be tolerated, though it won’t solve the leadership issue.
2. How quickly the Tory Party finds its “coronation candidate”. The longer it takes them to agree the longer the process - unless Truss takes matters into her own hands they won’t act until they know they have the replacement sorted.
3. How PMQs goes on Wednesday. If it’s another car crash like Fridays press conference (which is entirely plausible) I think it will focus minds.
It’s absolutely right that whatever and whenever the matter of departure, Truss is not leading the Tories into the next GE.
Fascinating to observe these first few days of the Sunak administration. Ok so he hasn't yet been appointed PM, but these are his policies and his program being hurriedly implemented by Hunt.
Supposedly Mrs Brady already has 100 letters - remind me of the threshold? So he goes to her with that big grin to remove his 3rd Prime Minister. Today. Because this has to stop.
Sunak PM Hunt Chancellor Wallace Foreign Mordaunt Home Running the government as a Quad. It's the unity ticket which enough MPs will back to smash the remaining rebels.
If they don't remove Truss before PMQs they certainly will afterwards. I don't see how this new government will keep power for long, it's basically matricide against the will of the giffer members. But they need to stabilise the ship before an inevitable General Election in the spring.
Rishi will try to pin all the blame on Truss despite being instrumental to the underlying political instability and economic weakness. I cant see the right let him get away with it.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Which is why Sunak and Hunt are clear lays.
If there is such a candidate it could be someone no-one has thought of yet.
Sunak and Hunt as Leader and Chancellor also guarantees Farage returns to attack them from their right flank while there is no guarantee they win back voters lost to Starmer and Davey
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Fuck 'em
They got us into this mess.
Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
The least popular and least affordable bits of the budget ie the corporation tax and higher rate income tax cuts have already been reversed. The cut in the basic rate was actually popular with voters
It may have been popular, and as a standalone measure it may have not created this crisis, but Hunt now understandably needs to restore market confidence and that means erring on the side of fiscal prudence.
So it's now popular, but not affordable.
Any future Tory leadership contest won't resemble a competition as to who can hand out the most free sweeties.
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
Well the situation that has existed for the last few years in some industries (my own particularly) has meant that there is now a huge shortage of contractors to the extent that projects are being delayed because they cannot proceed for lack of expertise. They need to find another way of dealing with this because the current (pre mini-budget) situation is unsustainable and will be costing the Government revenue.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
Early morning in Ukraine there have been very large number of kamikaze Iranian-made drones attacking cities including Kyiv. A large number have been shot down. There were a few cruise missiles but it was primarily a drone attack. If Russia had lots of spare missiles they would surely be sending them in. It looks like the only munitions they have supplies of currently are the drones.
Early morning in Ukraine there have been very large number of kamikaze Iranian-made drones attacking cities including Kyiv. A large number have been shot down. There were a few cruise missiles but it was primarily a drone attack. If Russia had lots of spare missiles they would surely be sending them in. It looks like the only munitions they have supplies of currently are the drones.
And yet the Iranians are denying supplying any. Remarkable.
This has happened with some weapins supplied to Ukraine as well. Country A makes some weapons, and gives to Country/Group B. B then sells them onto C, who sells or gives them to Ukraine or Russia.
Sometimes this is without country A's direct knowledge; often it is.
It's perfectly feasible that Iran is not *directly* giving them to Russia, and is instead giving them to (say) Hezbollah, who us then giving them to Russia.
Either way, the Israelis will be paying close attention.
I don't think Hunt will change the fuel subsidy because it's a one-off - ie doesn't last indefinitely into the future.
One-off costs don't really matter in the long run - if something only lasts one or two years then it has no impact at all on whether debt falls as a % of GDP in year 3.
The point about IT, CT, NIC changes is they are assumed to be indefinite.
One of the barmier Truss proposals was to scrap the planned rise in CT whilst refusing to offer anything more than a six month cap on business energy bills (of which just over five months remain.) Small businesses facing an existential threat from extraordinary energy bills are really not concerned at this point about the rate of CT on their non-existent profits.
I hope that the reinstatement of the CT rise will come together with a commitment to if necessary extend the business energy price cap into the 2023/24 fiscal year, or at least a commitment to some form of relief. As you say, it's a one-off cost whereas the CT rise would be ongoing, and it's the latter which offers the prospect of cutting relative levels of debt.
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
Well the situation that has existed for the last few years in some industries (my own particularly) has meant that there is now a huge shortage of contractors to the extent that projects are being delayed because they cannot proceed for lack of expertise. They need to find another way of dealing with this because the current (pre mini-budget) situation is unsustainable and will be costing the Government revenue.
In the good old days, it was terribly simple. People (with skills) had two options:
(1) Be an employee, get holiday pay and sick pay, and contribute to NI that meant that if you lost your job and became unemployed, you recieved benefits.
As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
Hence the suggestion of Wallace (with Sunak as Chancellor). Problem is that he'd either be another figurehead without power - though at least untainted as Truss is - or another unpredictable gamble without a mandate. And the appointment of Hunt, essentially following Sunak's economic playbook, rather undercuts the case for Sunak.
Fundamentally the party is screwed, unless the awkward squads can be cowed into submission, as it can't go into an election with Truss as leader, and the means of replacing her is deeply problematic.
As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
You assume the Truss-voting membership have not read the papers and realised they've been sold a pup.
If the decision were put to them again, they'd probably choose another one. They weren't sold a pup - they determinedly acquired one.
If the Tories are going to argue that we need a period of stability rather than a general election after they get rid of Truss, they are going to have to drop the NIP legislation - or at least not take it all the way onto the statute books.
Fascinating to observe these first few days of the Sunak administration. Ok so he hasn't yet been appointed PM, but these are his policies and his program being hurriedly implemented by Hunt.
Supposedly Mrs Brady already has 100 letters - remind me of the threshold? So he goes to her with that big grin to remove his 3rd Prime Minister. Today. Because this has to stop.
Sunak PM Hunt Chancellor Wallace Foreign Mordaunt Home Running the government as a Quad. It's the unity ticket which enough MPs will back to smash the remaining rebels.
If they don't remove Truss before PMQs they certainly will afterwards. I don't see how this new government will keep power for long, it's basically matricide against the will of the giffer members. But they need to stabilise the ship before an inevitable General Election in the spring.
Rishi will try to pin all the blame on Truss despite being instrumental to the underlying political instability and economic weakness. I cant see the right let him get away with it.
Yes, the root of the instability is from Team Rishi. They started it during the campaign in the summer, and have been using every trick in the book to undermine the PM since the day she was elected, bar a short pause to mourn the death of the Queen.
I can’t think of a single instance in history when changes to taxes or duties have been “announced” outside Parliament. In one instance when it was leaked, it led to the Chancellor’s immediate resignation. This is a sign of further panic, not greater stability.
If the Tories are going to argue that we need a period of stability rather than a general election after they get rid of Truss, they are going to have to drop the NIP legislation - or at least not take it all the way onto the statute books.
I understand that agreement with the EU is much more likely since Truss meeting with Macron
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
Russia now wasting their Iranian drones on non-military targets in Kiev this morning. What on Earth do they think they’ll achieve here, given that they’re close to being exhausted of any decent weapons?
As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
Hence the suggestion of Wallace (with Sunak as Chancellor). Problem is that he'd either be another figurehead without power - though at least untainted as Truss is - or another unpredictable gamble without a mandate. And the appointment of Hunt, essentially following Sunak's economic playbook, rather undercuts the case for Sunak.
Fundamentally the party is screwed, unless the awkward squads can be cowed into submission, as it can't go into an election with Truss as leader, and the means of replacing her is deeply problematic.
We *cannot* change Chancellor again. Hunt has the job until the GE. Sunak called all of this correctly (and had it branded "Project Fear" by the PM). So he becomes the PM as the critical part is bringing the markets on board.
None of this is easy. But putting it bluntly this new administration has already collapsed. Either the party removes it *quickly* and appoints a new one. This week. Or the whole government collapses into acrimony and we get a general election. Those are the choices. Leave Truss in as a zombie with this civil war rumbling on in the party and its only a question of when it collapses completely. And they will get destroyed at the election.
So regardless of how difficult getting Sunak in will be, the alternative is even more difficult. So get on with it.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1581907570394292224 Robert Hutton @RobDotHutton (Anecdotage: in 2005, Bloomberg asked me to interview Tony Blair live on TV. I was *terrified*. As the producer counted us in, I tried to even the balance of fear: "Not to worry, prime minister, it's just five minutes on the bond market." Interview opens on Blair look of horror.)
The tweet before it says the BBC needs to spend 5 minutes explaining with a video how the bond market works (remember it's counter intuitive to many people)...
Viable or not, there will be a negotiated peace. This is not going to end with Ukrainian tanks rolling into Red Square.
Who is suggesting that ?
More pertinently, it is not going to end with Ukraine accepting Russian territorial seizures while they are still successfully liberating territory. There will eventually be a negotiated peace, but it's highly unlikely to be with an interlocutor who is still insisting that Ukraine has no right to exist as an independent nation.
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
The opposite. Responsibility for the determination of IR35, and the tax liability, is moving back to the the contractor and away from the end client. It had been shifted to the end client in public sector contracts in 2017, and to all others in 2021.
Early morning in Ukraine there have been very large number of kamikaze Iranian-made drones attacking cities including Kyiv. A large number have been shot down. There were a few cruise missiles but it was primarily a drone attack. If Russia had lots of spare missiles they would surely be sending them in. It looks like the only munitions they have supplies of currently are the drones.
And yet the Iranians are denying supplying any. Remarkable.
This has happened with some weapins supplied to Ukraine as well. Country A makes some weapons, and gives to Country/Group B. B then sells them onto C, who sells or gives them to Ukraine or Russia.
Sometimes this is without country A's direct knowledge; often it is.
It's perfectly feasible that Iran is not *directly* giving them to Russia, and is instead giving them to (say) Hezbollah, who us then giving them to Russia.
Either way, the Israelis will be paying close attention.
As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
Rishi back as Chancellor under PM Wallace (if not him, then Mordaunt). That is where it leaves the Party.
As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
Hence the suggestion of Wallace (with Sunak as Chancellor). Problem is that he'd either be another figurehead without power - though at least untainted as Truss is - or another unpredictable gamble without a mandate. And the appointment of Hunt, essentially following Sunak's economic playbook, rather undercuts the case for Sunak.
Fundamentally the party is screwed, unless the awkward squads can be cowed into submission, as it can't go into an election with Truss as leader, and the means of replacing her is deeply problematic.
Some on here (me included) did say that electing Boris would result in the destruction of the Tory Party. The only question was how it would occur.
I never thought it would be by Boris's replacement self-destructing within weeks though
Still glad it was Truss and not Johnson who was PM when the Queen died.
On the other hand, having seen how it was handled like clockwork, there would have been very little opportunity for Johnson to grandstand in the way you presumably fear.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
You don't need to be that bright to be PM, just reasonably competent with a clear message.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
Russia now wasting their Iranian drones on non-military targets in Kiev this morning. What on Earth do they think they’ll achieve here, given that they’re close to being exhausted of any decent weapons?
They're using them for the purpose they wee designed for. They're not of much use against military targets. They're designed to attack population centres and their infrastructure. Effectively a much cheaper and slightly more accurate version of the V1.
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
The opposite. Responsibility for the determination of IR35, and the tax liability, is moving back to the the contractor and away from the end client. It had been shifted to the end client in public sector contracts in 2017, and to all others in 2021.
I do wonder though if Hunt might just find it easier to simply scrap the whole mini-budget. Revert to the previous statis quo and then use that as the baseline for his own changes.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Fuck 'em
They got us into this mess.
Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
The least popular and least affordable bits of the budget ie the corporation tax and higher rate income tax cuts have already been reversed. The cut in the basic rate was actually popular with voters
It may have been popular, and as a standalone measure it may have not created this crisis, but Hunt now understandably needs to restore market confidence and that means erring on the side of fiscal prudence.
So it's now popular, but not affordable.
Any future Tory leadership contest won't resemble a competition as to who can hand out the most free sweeties.
Oh it will if and when the Tories go back into opposition, Labour will them have to take the tough choices in government
I did actually close out my Truss out in 2022 position. Things drag on for longer than we would wish, no PM ever has voluntarily left because they believed themselves not up to the job, and the 22 as it stands needs to wait a year and even if the letters go in them what next?
As Portillo said it would have to be an acclamation but who? The only person with the credibility and moral authority to lead is loathed by the membership.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
You don't need to be that bright to be PM, just reasonably competent with a clear message.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
If the Tories think that just being not too dim is adequate qualification to be leader of the UK, they don't deserve to be in power.
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
The opposite. Responsibility for the determination of IR35, and the tax liability, is moving back to the the contractor and away from the end client. It had been shifted to the end client in public sector contracts in 2017, and to all others in 2021.
I do wonder though if Hunt might just find it easier to simply scrap the whole mini-budget. Revert to the previous statis quo and then use that as the baseline for his own changes.
In terms of IR35 do you mean the pre 2021 status quo or the status quo 2021-22? I mean…it’s a bit hard to keep up frankly. And I’m an employment lawyer. This is one of the few bits of tax law I know (indeed understand) intimately.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
You don't need to be that bright to be PM, just reasonably competent with a clear message.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
So Truss and Johnson fail by your own description, not least because both appointed quite the most incompetent cabinets of recent times
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
The opposite. Responsibility for the determination of IR35, and the tax liability, is moving back to the the contractor and away from the end client. It had been shifted to the end client in public sector contracts in 2017, and to all others in 2021.
Let's make this clear
Pre April 2017 - worker determines status April 2017 - April 2021 - worker determines status for private sector work, public sector worker is determined by the public sector "employer" Post April 2021 - worker determines status if company is "small" otherwise end client "employer" determines status but responsibility sits with agency Currently post april 2023 - it returns to the Pre April 2017 rules
I will say 2 things here
1) the post April 2017 changes simply don't work (could write war and peace wiuth examples here but won't) 2) since April 2021 - tax avoidance by workers (who know they are doing it) and tax avoidance scams (where the worker doesn't know what is happening) have gone through the roof - I do believe that switching back to the pre 2017 rules would be very close to tax neutral
On 2 - I probably have the second best dataset available and have complete access to the only set better than mine - we share anonymized data. HMRC's data comes from what is reported - we see what is being reported to the worker and some of the tricks I've seen are outright theft from hmrc.
Mr Hunt right to bring forward statement. Opportunity to calm markets and reduce debt interest pressures. Important to retain perspective. UK is solvent. Economy will recover. Inflation will fall. HMT and BoE working well together. Much more a political than an economic crisis.
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
Well the situation that has existed for the last few years in some industries (my own particularly) has meant that there is now a huge shortage of contractors to the extent that projects are being delayed because they cannot proceed for lack of expertise. They need to find another way of dealing with this because the current (pre mini-budget) situation is unsustainable and will be costing the Government revenue.
In the good old days, it was terribly simple. People (with skills) had two options:
(1) Be an employee, get holiday pay and sick pay, and contribute to NI that meant that if you lost your job and became unemployed, you recieved benefits.
(2) Be a contractor. More money. No security.
Yep. The situation for many now is contribute to NI and still get no sick pay, holiday pay or benefits. Some of us accept that because there are still other benefits in terms of freedom of time but very large numbers have said screw that and either retired or started working overseas. My issue now is that some of the projects I should be working on are being delayed indefinitely because of lack of other necessary contractors.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
You don't need to be that bright to be PM, just reasonably competent with a clear message.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
If the Tories think that just being not too dim is adequate qualification to be leader of the UK, they don't deserve to be in power.
Gordon Brown was highly intelligent and a hopeless PM, Churchill and Reagan were great leaders but neither were super academic
Russia now wasting their Iranian drones on non-military targets in Kiev this morning. What on Earth do they think they’ll achieve here, given that they’re close to being exhausted of any decent weapons?
They're using them for the purpose they wee designed for. They're not of much use against military targets. They're designed to attack population centres and their infrastructure. Effectively a much cheaper and slightly more accurate version of the V1.
But they still cost millions, are relatively large and slow - therefore easy targets for the defenders - and there’s at most a couple of hundred of them, half of which have been used in less than a week, with little real damage to show for their efforts.
The enemy is getting increasingly desparate, and it shows. They’re hoping to find a way resolve the air before winter, one way or another.
Oh, and a few drones heading for Kiev is a huge domestic distraction for Russia from the real story, which is them losing even more ground in Kherson and Kharkiv. Kherson could fall this week.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
You don't need to be that bright to be PM, just reasonably competent with a clear message.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
If the Tories think that just being not too dim is adequate qualification to be leader of the UK, they don't deserve to be in power.
The best illustration of HYUFDs point is actually Blair, hopelessly outgunned by his wife, Chancellor, head of comms and foreign secretary.
Fascinating to observe these first few days of the Sunak administration. Ok so he hasn't yet been appointed PM, but these are his policies and his program being hurriedly implemented by Hunt.
Supposedly Mrs Brady already has 100 letters - remind me of the threshold? So he goes to her with that big grin to remove his 3rd Prime Minister. Today. Because this has to stop.
Sunak PM Hunt Chancellor Wallace Foreign Mordaunt Home Running the government as a Quad. It's the unity ticket which enough MPs will back to smash the remaining rebels.
If they don't remove Truss before PMQs they certainly will afterwards. I don't see how this new government will keep power for long, it's basically matricide against the will of the giffer members. But they need to stabilise the ship before an inevitable General Election in the spring.
Rishi will try to pin all the blame on Truss despite being instrumental to the underlying political instability and economic weakness. I cant see the right let him get away with it.
Yes, the root of the instability is from Team Rishi. They started it during the campaign in the summer, and have been using every trick in the book to undermine the PM since the day she was elected, bar a short pause to mourn the death of the Queen.
Most of the blue on blue attacks during the leadership campaign came from Team Truss (including Team Big Dog). Nor has Rishi or his supporters (or Boris, come to that) said anything of note in the past week. Sorry, but Truss and Kwarteng dunnit themselves.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
You don't need to be that bright to be PM, just reasonably competent with a clear message.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
If the Tories think that just being not too dim is adequate qualification to be leader of the UK, they don't deserve to be in power.
The best illustration of HYUFDs point is actually Blair, hopelessly outgunned by his wife, Chancellor, head of comms and foreign secretary.
Indeed, Brown was much more intelligent than Blair, as was Robin Cook but Blair was a far better PM than Brown but someone who appointed top people to his Cabinet
Early morning in Ukraine there have been very large number of kamikaze Iranian-made drones attacking cities including Kyiv. A large number have been shot down. There were a few cruise missiles but it was primarily a drone attack. If Russia had lots of spare missiles they would surely be sending them in. It looks like the only munitions they have supplies of currently are the drones.
And yet the Iranians are denying supplying any. Remarkable.
This has happened with some weapins supplied to Ukraine as well. Country A makes some weapons, and gives to Country/Group B. B then sells them onto C, who sells or gives them to Ukraine or Russia.
Sometimes this is without country A's direct knowledge; often it is.
It's perfectly feasible that Iran is not *directly* giving them to Russia, and is instead giving them to (say) Hezbollah, who us then giving them to Russia.
Either way, the Israelis will be paying close attention.
They will be interested to observe how easy it seems to be to shoot them down and what works best, that’s for sure.
As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
Rishi back as Chancellor under PM Wallace (if not him, then Mordaunt). That is where it leaves the Party.
I can't see any circumstances where we replace the Chancellor. After everything we have put the markets through there can't be another change. So Sunak as the guy who predicted all this becomes PM - as the MPs thought should have happened. Hunt is already Sunak's chancellor implementing his policies. It just needs to be made formal.
The question is simple. Do the Tories let Father Dougal do a funeral Truss do PMQs on Wednesday? Because it will be painfully funny. Though less funny for the economy because every time she stands up and speaks the markets react badly.
Also, think about what she said last week. She guaranteed "absolutely" that there would be no cuts to public spending. We knew at the time this to be a blatant lie as Kwarteng was to do so and KT endlessly refused to rule it out despite ruling out a cut in pensions.
Yesterday her (Sunak's) chancellor confirmed a big cut in public spending. So she deliberately mislead the House. Which is a resignation offence. And some think she should be allowed to stay in place? She didn't intend to lie, she simply hadn't considered the question and can't think on her feet. Supposedly a red wall MP at the 22 meeting asked her about promised investment up north being pro-rated to inflation. Not only did she not respond but she did an open mouthed silent response like at her press conference.
And some people think she should be given more time...?
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
The opposite. Responsibility for the determination of IR35, and the tax liability, is moving back to the the contractor and away from the end client. It had been shifted to the end client in public sector contracts in 2017, and to all others in 2021.
I do wonder though if Hunt might just find it easier to simply scrap the whole mini-budget. Revert to the previous statis quo and then use that as the baseline for his own changes.
In terms of IR35 do you mean the pre 2021 status quo or the status quo 2021-22? I mean…it’s a bit hard to keep up frankly. And I’m an employment lawyer. This is one of the few bits of tax law I know (indeed understand) intimately.
I thought Hunt might just scrap the most recently announced changes and go back to the post 2017/21 'end user decides' situation. I doubt IR35 is on his horizon at the moment one way or another but the latest 2022 changes might be a victim of his simply scrapping the mini-budget wholesale and doing his own thing in the autumn statement.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
You don't need to be that bright to be PM, just reasonably competent with a clear message.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
The opposite. Responsibility for the determination of IR35, and the tax liability, is moving back to the the contractor and away from the end client. It had been shifted to the end client in public sector contracts in 2017, and to all others in 2021.
I do wonder though if Hunt might just find it easier to simply scrap the whole mini-budget. Revert to the previous statis quo and then use that as the baseline for his own changes.
Yes he might as well:
45p and corporation tax already gone. SDLT - Go back to status quo until you have a clearer idea of the house price correction. 19/20p - initial Sunak idea was to lower this in the pre-GE budget. Push it back, or put it on ice. NI Rise - the controversial one but the tax is already being paid, so people will not feel the impact. This is the trickiest one politically, but probably the easiest one fiscally to just reverse.
Mr Hunt right to bring forward statement. Opportunity to calm markets and reduce debt interest pressures. Important to retain perspective. UK is solvent. Economy will recover. Inflation will fall. HMT and BoE working well together. Much more a political than an economic crisis.
I think that this is optimistic. Yes, the immediate pressure will dissipate but the underlying weaknesses will still be there until we start to address them.
What will Hunt say in his emergency statement later?
1. Almost guaranteed he'll bin the other mini-budget measures that haven't happened yet like IR35 and duty free. Temp stamp duty cut and NI have already happened.
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
Well the situation that has existed for the last few years in some industries (my own particularly) has meant that there is now a huge shortage of contractors to the extent that projects are being delayed because they cannot proceed for lack of expertise. They need to find another way of dealing with this because the current (pre mini-budget) situation is unsustainable and will be costing the Government revenue.
In the good old days, it was terribly simple. People (with skills) had two options:
(1) Be an employee, get holiday pay and sick pay, and contribute to NI that meant that if you lost your job and became unemployed, you recieved benefits.
(2) Be a contractor. More money. No security.
I think perhaps the original rule changes approached the problem from the wrong direction. If we want to encourage people who are really long-term employees to have contracts that reflect that, then we should make it less onerous to employ people in that way, instead of making it more onerous to hire them as contractors.
Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM
Does Wallace actually want the job?
He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the Truss backers and the Tory moderates with a broad based Cabinet while still being acceptable to the membership
He would be another IDS; just not bright enough. Entirely coincidental that he too was a Jock Guard.
I have to say I have the same reservations and I wonder if he knows it too, hence why he bowed out last time.
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
You don't need to be that bright to be PM, just reasonably competent with a clear message.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
If the Tories think that just being not too dim is adequate qualification to be leader of the UK, they don't deserve to be in power.
Gordon Brown was highly intelligent and a hopeless PM, Churchill and Reagan were great leaders but neither were super academic
As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
Rishi back as Chancellor under PM Wallace (if not him, then Mordaunt). That is where it leaves the Party.
I can't see any circumstances where we replace the Chancellor. After everything we have put the markets through there can't be another change. So Sunak as the guy who predicted all this becomes PM - as the MPs thought should have happened. Hunt is already Sunak's chancellor implementing his policies. It just needs to be made formal.
The question is simple. Do the Tories let Father Dougal do a funeral Truss do PMQs on Wednesday? Because it will be painfully funny. Though less funny for the economy because every time she stands up and speaks the markets react badly.
Also, think about what she said last week. She guaranteed "absolutely" that there would be no cuts to public spending. We knew at the time this to be a blatant lie as Kwarteng was to do so and KT endlessly refused to rule it out despite ruling out a cut in pensions.
Yesterday her (Sunak's) chancellor confirmed a big cut in public spending. So she deliberately mislead the House. Which is a resignation offence. And some think she should be allowed to stay in place? She didn't intend to lie, she simply hadn't considered the question and can't think on her feet. Supposedly a red wall MP at the 22 meeting asked her about promised investment up north being pro-rated to inflation. Not only did she not respond but she did an open mouthed silent response like at her press conference.
And some people think she should be given more time...?
It would have been awkward if Rishi Sunak had already resigned his seat in parliament. Would he have stood again at a by-election he had just caused?
Hunt has the best chance at an acclamation if his plans restore economic credibility as his stock with MPs will rise. Wallace has the best chance if Hunt's plans do not, as he's still popular with members and probably MPs.
But I'd still lean to Truss buying some time if the u turn works - to somewhat reduce the humiliation Hunt could take over early next year.
But I'm not as confident of that as I was - the markets still seem worried, and Hunt's announcements will probably be very unpopular with the public.
Rishi is a bright guy, a squillionaire, called this whole thing almost word for word, and lost out in the leadership campaign to Truss and we know how that all turned out.
People are now saying that he will settle for anything other than PM?
Can't see it myself.
And for those saying "well he did get 43%" from the membership, may I refer you to BoJo as London mayor, and then as PM. Look who he was up against.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Fuck 'em
They got us into this mess.
Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
Who's going to deliver the leaflets?
I think we've got way beyond worrying about that now.
Leaflets are not nothing, but members overestimate how effective they are in my book. Canvassing in general I dont think helps as much as canvassers think.
Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.
There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.
The opposite. Responsibility for the determination of IR35, and the tax liability, is moving back to the the contractor and away from the end client. It had been shifted to the end client in public sector contracts in 2017, and to all others in 2021.
I do wonder though if Hunt might just find it easier to simply scrap the whole mini-budget. Revert to the previous statis quo and then use that as the baseline for his own changes.
In terms of IR35 do you mean the pre 2021 status quo or the status quo 2021-22? I mean…it’s a bit hard to keep up frankly. And I’m an employment lawyer. This is one of the few bits of tax law I know (indeed understand) intimately.
Do you understand the Managed Service Company legislation? I'm having a mare finding anyone with a better understanding than me (which is slightly worrying as that really is devil is in the detail)..
As for IR35 - I've added a run down below of the 4 stages. And that address the biggest issue with IR35 which isn't the tax it's the inability to claim commute expenses for what the worker knows is a short-term piece of work. Which means as @Richard_Tyndall points out many people turn work down because the location makes accepting it impossible. Work directly with Avanade or other consultancy and you can head to a client XYZ's office without a problem, work as a contract on Avanade's XYZ project and you can't claim expenses. so even the consultancies have difficulty finding enough staff.
Early morning in Ukraine there have been very large number of kamikaze Iranian-made drones attacking cities including Kyiv. A large number have been shot down. There were a few cruise missiles but it was primarily a drone attack. If Russia had lots of spare missiles they would surely be sending them in. It looks like the only munitions they have supplies of currently are the drones.
And yet the Iranians are denying supplying any. Remarkable.
This has happened with some weapins supplied to Ukraine as well. Country A makes some weapons, and gives to Country/Group B. B then sells them onto C, who sells or gives them to Ukraine or Russia.
Sometimes this is without country A's direct knowledge; often it is.
It's perfectly feasible that Iran is not *directly* giving them to Russia, and is instead giving them to (say) Hezbollah, who us then giving them to Russia.
Either way, the Israelis will be paying close attention.
They will be interested to observe how easy it seems to be to shoot them down and what works best, that’s for sure.
A point he makes is that these small, cheap drones are difficult for the west (as Saudi Arabia has been finding). Expending a >$1 million missile against something that costs $30k is madness.
That's where Germany's Gepard's might be useful. But such gun systems have fallen out of favour when compared to missiles, so western militaries have not got a large stock of them.
But as Perun says at the endl the high-end threats from planes have not gone away. It's just that we'll need gun systems for small, cheap targets and missiles for the high-end planes. Allegedly the Ukrainians are already combining them in one battery, using the correct weapon for the target.
Comments
Dartford crossing closed by the Police due to eco cranks climbing the bridge.
Police currently working out how to safely get refreshments up to the protesters.
https://twitter.com/juststop_oil/status/1581897571093487617?s=61&t=6MBS6FnkzUKwCdKgXBSugg
Supposedly Mrs Brady already has 100 letters - remind me of the threshold? So he goes to her with that big grin to remove his 3rd Prime Minister. Today. Because this has to stop.
Sunak PM
Hunt Chancellor
Wallace Foreign
Mordaunt Home
Running the government as a Quad. It's the unity ticket which enough MPs will back to smash the remaining rebels.
If they don't remove Truss before PMQs they certainly will afterwards. I don't see how this new government will keep power for long, it's basically matricide against the will of the giffer members. But they need to stabilise the ship before an inevitable General Election in the spring.
I don't think there are 4 Tory MPs with that kind of moral self-sacrifice, let alone 40.
HY is wrong about Major in '97. He dragged it out past the autumn of '96 and then had a 6 week interminable election campaign. None of it helped his cause: the perception of desperately clinging onto power against the evident wishes of the people.
The tories this time face a Canada-style wipeout if they're not careful.
Now the rules may not be changed but it must be about 50:50 that they will be.
And I maintain he might well win with the members anyway.
There are big similarities with Ed Davey - first time LD members went for Swinson. Second time Moran appeared a much closer fit to members views but they went for Davey by wide margin.
They knew they had to play it safe second time. Same will apply here.
https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1581729165791092737?t=lyjkOA61c6EAacMZhwgY7g&s=19
have already been reversed. The cut in the basic rate was actually popular with voters
If Boris hadn't been such a prick and spent time downing Sunak, we might actually have a sensible Prime Minister.
Once again Boris Johnson is partly responsible for the ills of this country.
A decent proportion of both the Parliamentary party and the membership would have BoJo back in a heartbeat.
Ponder that. From a betting and can't quite fucking believe it perspective also.
For all the talk of wanting more borrowing powers, the SNP is extremely fortunate not to have a bond market to instantaneously mark its homework tomorrow*.
https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1581653214516367360
* Today
https://twitter.com/D_G_Alexander/status/1581902585958572032
Three key factors to Truss’ departure:
1. How well the markets perform - the more stable they appear the more she will probably be tolerated, though it won’t solve the leadership issue.
2. How quickly the Tory Party finds its “coronation candidate”. The longer it takes them to agree the longer the process - unless Truss takes matters into her own hands they won’t act until they know they have the replacement sorted.
3. How PMQs goes on Wednesday. If it’s another car crash like Fridays press conference (which is entirely plausible) I think it will focus minds.
It’s absolutely right that whatever and whenever the matter of departure, Truss is not leading the Tories into the next GE.
Then have the privilege committee suspend him from the House.
That'll calm the markets...
The country will move on. Sean et. al. will be left raging against the dying light, but the country will move on.
So it's now popular, but not affordable.
Any future Tory leadership contest won't resemble a competition as to who can hand out the most free sweeties.
Mad times. What will things look like in 24 hours?
I think he's a solid guy - and a nice one - but being PM is a completely different sort of job.
And that is not the policy. Pharmacists are trained medical professionals and this is a limited extension of their ability to dispense drugs.
Goodness knows there is enough to criticise this government for without lying
Sometimes this is without country A's direct knowledge; often it is.
It's perfectly feasible that Iran is not *directly* giving them to Russia, and is instead giving them to (say) Hezbollah, who us then giving them to Russia.
Either way, the Israelis will be paying close attention.
The policy is excellent allowing pharmacists, who are highly qualified, to prescribe antibiotics in the same way practice nurses already do
It was Coffey's idiotic comment about handing her antibiotics to family members which deserves the criticism, not the policy itself
I hope that the reinstatement of the CT rise will come together with a commitment to if necessary extend the business energy price cap into the 2023/24 fiscal year, or at least a commitment to some form of relief. As you say, it's a one-off cost whereas the CT rise would be ongoing, and it's the latter which offers the prospect of cutting relative levels of debt.
(1) Be an employee, get holiday pay and sick pay, and contribute to NI that meant that if you lost your job and became unemployed, you recieved benefits.
(2) Be a contractor. More money. No security.
Problem is that he'd either be another figurehead without power - though at least untainted as Truss is - or another unpredictable gamble without a mandate.
And the appointment of Hunt, essentially following Sunak's economic playbook, rather undercuts the case for Sunak.
Fundamentally the party is screwed, unless the awkward squads can be cowed into submission, as it can't go into an election with Truss as leader, and the means of replacing her is deeply problematic.
They weren't sold a pup - they determinedly acquired one.
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1580980400394207232?s=20&t=AgMSI8d0zFroa6QgMuCc7g
Oct 14. No idea what this is about.
None of this is easy. But putting it bluntly this new administration has already collapsed. Either the party removes it *quickly* and appoints a new one. This week. Or the whole government collapses into acrimony and we get a general election. Those are the choices. Leave Truss in as a zombie with this civil war rumbling on in the party and its only a question of when it collapses completely. And they will get destroyed at the election.
So regardless of how difficult getting Sunak in will be, the alternative is even more difficult. So get on with it.
Robert Hutton
@RobDotHutton
(Anecdotage: in 2005, Bloomberg asked me to interview Tony Blair live on TV. I was *terrified*. As the producer counted us in, I tried to even the balance of fear: "Not to worry, prime minister, it's just five minutes on the bond market." Interview opens on Blair look of horror.)
The tweet before it says the BBC needs to spend 5 minutes explaining with a video how the bond market works (remember it's counter intuitive to many people)...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2009/11/toilet_humour_of_the_turnip_ta.html
More pertinently, it is not going to end with Ukraine accepting Russian territorial seizures while they are still successfully liberating territory.
There will eventually be a negotiated peace, but it's highly unlikely to be with an interlocutor who is still insisting that Ukraine has no right to exist as an independent nation.
Like "If the Moon is made of cheese then 1+1=2"
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1581676551208259587
I never thought it would be by Boris's replacement self-destructing within weeks though
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1581895937336967169
Some straight bat from Damien Green on R4.
Interesting reply on replacing Truss “don’t need or want long drawn out leadership campaign”.
Early days, but it looks like Hunt will come out looking very favourable when the history of this whole saga is written.
Especially if you have a bright Chancellor and Cabinet Ministers to do the day to day work in their departments
They're not of much use against military targets. They're designed to attack population centres and their infrastructure.
Effectively a much cheaper and slightly more accurate version of the V1.
A peace that gives large chunks of Ukraine to Russia is not viable.
The 2012 borders would be
Crimea is an option Ukraine can live without but it is very much in NATO’s interest that it is not part of Russia
Pre April 2017 - worker determines status
April 2017 - April 2021 - worker determines status for private sector work, public sector worker is determined by the public sector "employer"
Post April 2021 - worker determines status if company is "small" otherwise end client "employer" determines status but responsibility sits with agency
Currently post april 2023 - it returns to the Pre April 2017 rules
I will say 2 things here
1) the post April 2017 changes simply don't work (could write war and peace wiuth examples here but won't)
2) since April 2021 - tax avoidance by workers (who know they are doing it) and tax avoidance scams (where the worker doesn't know what is happening) have gone through the roof - I do believe that switching back to the pre 2017 rules would be very close to tax neutral
On 2 - I probably have the second best dataset available and have complete access to the only set better than mine - we share anonymized data. HMRC's data comes from what is reported - we see what is being reported to the worker and some of the tricks I've seen are outright theft from hmrc.
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1581900005740544000
The enemy is getting increasingly desparate, and it shows. They’re hoping to find a way resolve the air before winter, one way or another.
Oh, and a few drones heading for Kiev is a huge domestic distraction for Russia from the real story, which is them losing even more ground in Kherson and Kharkiv. Kherson could fall this week.
At least let us see the new boundaries in 3 weeks.
The question is simple. Do the Tories let
Father Dougal do a funeralTruss do PMQs on Wednesday? Because it will be painfully funny. Though less funny for the economy because every time she stands up and speaks the markets react badly.Also, think about what she said last week. She guaranteed "absolutely" that there would be no cuts to public spending. We knew at the time this to be a blatant lie as Kwarteng was to do so and KT endlessly refused to rule it out despite ruling out a cut in pensions.
Yesterday her (Sunak's) chancellor confirmed a big cut in public spending. So she deliberately mislead the House. Which is a resignation offence. And some think she should be allowed to stay in place? She didn't intend to lie, she simply hadn't considered the question and can't think on her feet. Supposedly a red wall MP at the 22 meeting asked her about promised investment up north being pro-rated to inflation. Not only did she not respond but she did an open mouthed silent response like at her press conference.
And some people think she should be given more time...?
45p and corporation tax already gone.
SDLT - Go back to status quo until you have a clearer idea of the house price correction.
19/20p - initial Sunak idea was to lower this in the pre-GE budget. Push it back, or put it on ice.
NI Rise - the controversial one but the tax is already being paid, so people will not feel the impact. This is the trickiest one politically, but probably the easiest one fiscally to just reverse.
What will Hunt say in his emergency statement later?
1. Almost guaranteed he'll bin the other mini-budget measures that haven't happened yet like IR35 and duty free. Temp stamp duty cut and NI have already happened.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1581911342780325889
https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1581912283109728257
But I'd still lean to Truss buying some time if the u turn works - to somewhat reduce the humiliation Hunt could take over early next year.
But I'm not as confident of that as I was - the markets still seem worried, and Hunt's announcements will probably be very unpopular with the public.
People are now saying that he will settle for anything other than PM?
Can't see it myself.
And for those saying "well he did get 43%" from the membership, may I refer you to BoJo as London mayor, and then as PM. Look who he was up against.
As for IR35 - I've added a run down below of the 4 stages. And that address the biggest issue with IR35 which isn't the tax it's the inability to claim commute expenses for what the worker knows is a short-term piece of work. Which means as @Richard_Tyndall points out many people turn work down because the location makes accepting it impossible. Work directly with Avanade or other consultancy and you can head to a client XYZ's office without a problem, work as a contract on Avanade's XYZ project and you can't claim expenses. so even the consultancies have difficulty finding enough staff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCEzEVwOwS4
Well worth a listen, IMO.
A point he makes is that these small, cheap drones are difficult for the west (as Saudi Arabia has been finding). Expending a >$1 million missile against something that costs $30k is madness.
That's where Germany's Gepard's might be useful. But such gun systems have fallen out of favour when compared to missiles, so western militaries have not got a large stock of them.
But as Perun says at the endl the high-end threats from planes have not gone away. It's just that we'll need gun systems for small, cheap targets and missiles for the high-end planes. Allegedly the Ukrainians are already combining them in one battery, using the correct weapon for the target.