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Memo to the Tories: Look stupid, it’s the economy – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
Memo to the Tories: Look stupid, it’s the economy – politicalbetting.com

Labour and Keir Starmer now have a 21pt lead over the Tories and Liz Truss on the economyWhich government do you think would be better for managing the economy?A Con government led by Liz Truss: 16%A Lab government led by Keir Starmer: 37%https://t.co/JhR4I1k8im pic.twitter.com/8aAs1RURyd

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    They certainly look stupid...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    A comma would clarify the headline
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,366
    There’s a comma missing. The headline appears to be an exhortation to Tories to make themselves look stupid because the economy is approaching, and that would help, somehow.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    edited October 16
    Look there are the makings of a decent government. Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Javid, Wallace, Mordaunt, Badenoch, Clark, Tugendhat, Stride.

    Let's get ready for the all new serious Tory government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    DougSeal said:

    There’s a comma missing. The headline appears to be an exhortation to Tories to make themselves look stupid because the economy is approaching, and that would help, somehow.

    It might not help, but recent events suggest it is inevitable.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Former Conservative Minister @CrispinBlunt tells @AFNeil that Liz Truss needs to be replaced immediately by a ‘combination’ of @RishiSunak , @PennyMordaunt and @Jeremy_Hunt

    Watch a special edition of #TheAndrewNeilShow: Can Liz Truss survive?
    Tonight, @Channel4 6.15pm https://twitter.com/Channel4/status/1581631885821681666/video/1

    And not forgetting that @CrispinBlunt was the first senior Tory to call on Iain Duncan Smith to resign back in 2003, as I reported in the @guardian with @michaelwhite. Duncan Smith was out within months https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2003/may/01/conservatives.uk1 https://twitter.com/channel4/status/1581631885821681666
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,586
    edited October 16
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    edited October 16
    Scott_xP said:

    And not forgetting that @CrispinBlunt was the first senior Tory to call on Iain Duncan Smith to resign back in 2003, as I reported in the @guardian with @michaelwhite. Duncan Smith was out within months https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2003/may/01/conservatives.uk1 https://twitter.com/channel4/status/1581631885821681666

    I think I remember that. A terrible night for the Conservatives (Anthony King).
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Given that there has to be a GE before the end of Jan 2025, and "things" are definitely coming down the pike to which this government will not be able to provide a convincing response, is it even possible for them to demonstrate "a bit of stability" such that "wonders" occur?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    The additional comma should be between 'look' and 'stupid.'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Ishmael_Z said:

    A comma would clarify the headline

    Constructive ambiguity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    Note that the clown had already pretty much destroyed the Tories' long-standing advantage on the economy; Truss just struck the final blow.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Should, not will...

    Tesco boss John Allan describing Labour as “the only team on the field”will horrify Tory MPs.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1581576119756939265
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    DougSeal said:

    There’s a comma missing. The headline appears to be an exhortation to Tories to make themselves look stupid because the economy is approaching, and that would help, somehow.

    Well, most readers will quickly discount that reading on the basis that they hardly need telling to look stupid.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    Nigelb said:

    Should, not will...

    Tesco boss John Allan describing Labour as “the only team on the field”will horrify Tory MPs.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1581576119756939265

    Who on earth off-topicked such an innocuous post?!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Get shot of Truss and most all of the Cabinet and there is the makings of a serious group of politicians to get to grips with our economic woes.

    They still have two years to implement the policies to correct the terrible reputational damage their colleagues have inflicted. They could still look like the smartest minds in the room come autumn 2024, despite the shit show of recent weeks.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Should, not will...

    Tesco boss John Allan describing Labour as “the only team on the field”will horrify Tory MPs.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1581576119756939265

    Who on earth off-topicked such an innocuous post?!
    Not me although my thumb slips occasionally.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,232
    edited October 16

    Look there are the makings of a decent government. Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Javid, Wallace, Mordaunt, Badenoch, Clark, Tugendhat, Stride.

    Let's get ready for the all new serious Tory government.

    I'd drink to that, Frank, but what are the chances?

    They're fighting like cats in a sack.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,454
    FPT, re: Leon's visit/invasion/infestation at The Broadmoor Hotel in Colorado Springs -

    Yours truly has a commemorative ceramic whiskey bottle (Jim Beam) in the shape of The Broadmoor.

    Which also is the place where in 1940, Republican "dark horse" (sorta) presidential nominee Wendell Willkie came, after winning the nomination at RNC, to prepare for his Fall campaign against Franklin Roosevelt.

    Hope it works out better for our wandering PBer than it did for WW!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    Someone on PB a few weeks ago was describing Liz, in all seriousness, as 'a lucky general'. I'm genuinely struggling to recall what could have prompted that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,870
    edited October 16

    FPT, re: Leon's visit/invasion/infestation at The Broadmoor Hotel in Colorado Springs -

    Yours truly has a commemorative ceramic whiskey bottle (Jim Beam) in the shape of The Broadmoor.

    Which also is the place where in 1940, Republican "dark horse" (sorta) presidential nominee Wendell Willkie came, after winning the nomination at RNC, to prepare for his Fall campaign against Franklin Roosevelt.

    Hope it works out better for our wandering PBer than it did for WW!


    I LOVE this hotel. The history is fabulous, it’s basically unknown outside the USA


    Also: the food is superb. I had maybe the best ceviche of my life last night, then some wonderful Alaskan halibut

    And the dry martinis in the “Prohibition” bar

    👍
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,227
    Scott_xP said:

    Former Conservative Minister @CrispinBlunt tells @AFNeil that Liz Truss needs to be replaced immediately by a ‘combination’ of @RishiSunak , @PennyMordaunt and @Jeremy_Hunt

    Quite a compliment to Liz, there. So 'big' that it'll take 3 people to replace her.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    Hunt warns Tory mps against trying to oust pm
    To be fair hes right the best outcome is Truss as a powerless figurehead whilst Hunt actually runs the country
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    ihunt said:

    Hunt warns Tory mps against trying to oust pm
    To be fair hes right the best outcome is Truss as a powerless figurehead whilst Hunt actually runs the country

    He's not exactly in any position to encourage them to do it though, is he ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,227

    Get shot of Truss and most all of the Cabinet and there is the makings of a serious group of politicians to get to grips with our economic woes.

    They still have two years to implement the policies to correct the terrible reputational damage their colleagues have inflicted. They could still look like the smartest minds in the room come autumn 2024, despite the shit show of recent weeks.

    Would you not prefer a general election?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    I would be surprised if Hunt makes big changes to established fiscal policy in the budget. I think the aim is mainly to row back from the announcements made and put the house gradually in to some kind of order. If you start to massively change the tax regime it is going to make everyone nervous again.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148

    Look there are the makings of a decent government. Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Javid, Wallace, Mordaunt, Badenoch, Clark, Tugendhat, Stride.

    Let's get ready for the all new serious Tory government.

    I'd drink to that, Frank, but what are the chances?

    They're fighting like cats in a sack.
    Maybe several of them will have ambitions for the top job but it should become clear quite quickly who is the one they can coalesce around. Bring back the magic circle.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    Get shot of Truss and most all of the Cabinet and there is the makings of a serious group of politicians to get to grips with our economic woes.

    They still have two years to implement the policies to correct the terrible reputational damage their colleagues have inflicted. They could still look like the smartest minds in the room come autumn 2024, despite the shit show of recent weeks.

    I'm not discounting the possibility that they could *be* the smartest minds in the room (although I can't say it looks like an awe inspiring Brains Trust to me) - but I just don't believe they have the time. There's a general view that they can't be trusted and that even if this lot might look good, who is to say that the loonies won't boot them out tomorrow (or the day after the election.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493

    Get shot of Truss and most all of the Cabinet and there is the makings of a serious group of politicians to get to grips with our economic woes.

    They still have two years to implement the policies to correct the terrible reputational damage their colleagues have inflicted. They could still look like the smartest minds in the room come autumn 2024, despite the shit show of recent weeks.

    It was going to be a tall order with all the unprompted third party inflicted fiscal pain raining down over the next years, but the mini-budget? It's difficult to see a Government led by God, Churchill, Mrs Thatcher, Mahatma Ghandi , Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela overcoming
    such an unnecessary self- harming event.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    You Tories are going to leave the next government an almighty mess.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    The Truss thing is the biggest national embarrassment of my lifetime. If the Tories had a modicum of respect for this country they'd call a general election so everyone can start afresh.
  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206
    HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    It would be reminiscent of the record Balance of Payments deficit Labour inherited in October 1964 - and the 13% Inflation plus 3 Day week crisis the party took over in March 1974.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    We are looking forward to a long period of "the Tories totally messed this up". And the problem with that line is that, however true it is, people weary of it when what they want is things to get better.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    Nigelb said:

    Should, not will...

    Tesco boss John Allan describing Labour as “the only team on the field”will horrify Tory MPs.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1581576119756939265

    It’s precisely on topic. “It’s the economy stupid” and Tesco is a big fucking chunk of the economy.

    Big business turning to Labour was a brick in the arch of New Labour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Truss back to 1.76 (layable) to go in 2022. Tempted to bet against that again. Time is very short, and if she did go in that time frame then Hunt might be in pole position.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,454
    "Being responsible for increasing mortgages of voters will lead to electoral reckoning."
    Too late now. Mortgage rates were rising. And will continue to do so, no matter what anyone does.
    It is the particular genius of the KT tenure to have indelibly linked it to government actions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the lochs and the waterfalls as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks. Absolutely glorious. And now the rather brilliant Skye bridge.

    I am coming over all @SeanT : someone is paying me for this?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,227
    HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    I sense some "scorched earth" thinking here. Mitigate defeat by ensuring there's nothing worth taking over.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146

    Get shot of Truss and most all of the Cabinet and there is the makings of a serious group of politicians to get to grips with our economic woes.

    They still have two years to implement the policies to correct the terrible reputational damage their colleagues have inflicted. They could still look like the smartest minds in the room come autumn 2024, despite the shit show of recent weeks.

    It was going to be a tall order with all the unprompted third party inflicted fiscal pain raining down over the next years, but the mini-budget? It's difficult to see a Government led by God, Churchill, Mrs Thatcher, Mahatma Ghandi , Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela overcoming
    such an unnecessary self- harming event.
    Thats why the best outcome is to leave Truss in place with Hunt steadying the ship and being the face of the govt
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,000
    HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    Indeed and no one should be in any doubt as to the "gift" Ken Clarke bestowed on Gordon Brown who then basically did what Clarke would have done up to 1999 and thereby neutered Conservative Opposition at a stroke.

    The fact in the 1990s Conservative propaganda was still going on about the Winter of Discontent claiming Blair would see the Unions back to their full power (laughable then and laughable now) shows how these events can resonate.

    If a future Conservative Shadow Chancellor puts forward a tax cutting agenda, you can be sure Labour will wheel out the Truss/Kwarteng debacle and remind people of just how bad it was. As the Mail remorsefully implied yesterday, that whole supply-side, low-tax, push of growth agenda has now been even more discredited as AV and as they called it the "Treasury Orthodoxy" has triumphed (Hunt is the personification of this and his anti-Conservative tax raising measures will be dictated by senior civil servants at the Treasury (apparently)).

    Laughable yesterday, still amusing today but how much will the Conservatives enjoy the joke over the next 18 months?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Someone on PB a few weeks ago was describing Liz, in all seriousness, as 'a lucky general'. I'm genuinely struggling to recall what could have prompted that.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Search=Truss+is+a+lucky+general

    Immunity from attack during hmq obsequies, imminent defeat of Russia

    Hmm.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the lochs and the waterfalls as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks. Absolutely glorious. And now the rather brilliant Skye bridge.

    I am coming over all @SeanT : someone is paying me for this?

    Murder?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493

    Look there are the makings of a decent government. Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Javid, Wallace, Mordaunt, Badenoch, Clark, Tugendhat, Stride.

    Let's get ready for the all new serious Tory government.

    I'd drink to that, Frank, but what are the chances?

    They're fighting like cats in a sack.
    Maybe several of them will have ambitions for the top job but it should become clear quite quickly who is the one they can coalesce around. Bring back the magic circle.
    The clowns didn't cut the mustard, so time for the magicians? It's certainly something of a circus.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    Scott_xP said:

    Former Conservative Minister @CrispinBlunt tells @AFNeil that Liz Truss needs to be replaced immediately by a ‘combination’ of @RishiSunak , @PennyMordaunt and @Jeremy_Hunt

    Triumvirates never go badly, everyone knows that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,870
    DavidL said:

    On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the lochs and the waterfalls as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks. Absolutely glorious. And now the rather brilliant Skye bridge.

    I am coming over all @SeanT : someone is paying me for this?

    Excellent. Maybe just change it thus:


    “On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the rough waters, and the cataracts, as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks.”

    Avoiding the repetition of “loch” and “water” etc but adding a “ca” echo

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,326
    edited October 16

    Nigelb said:

    Should, not will...

    Tesco boss John Allan describing Labour as “the only team on the field”will horrify Tory MPs.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1581576119756939265

    It’s precisely on topic. “It’s the economy stupid” and Tesco is a big fucking chunk of the economy.

    Big business turning to Labour was a brick in the arch of New Labour.
    He has a point. But two caveats:

    Firstly, John Allan was a second-referendumer even when the CBI, which he ran, declined to take a position:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47891982

    Secondly, in the interview today he makes the error of comparing the UK and RoI GDP per capita when even the RoI government says GDP isn’t a good measure of the Irish economy. Not as egregious as Carney pretending that comparing countries by nominal USD GDP is sensible yesterday, but pretty bad.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    edited October 16
    It’s too late for the Tories, they are indelibly stained with the corruption, arrogance and ineptitude of the last six years or more.

    They need to delete their account.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    edited October 16
    HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    But. They also won’t be left with sky high expectations of transformation that they could never realistically achieve.

    The Tesco boss comment is a straw in the wind for something big. “Business” is now pretty relaxed about a Starmer led government, and teetering on being actively in favour. Just like the mid 1990s.

    I thought Starmer’s comment last weekend that business doesn’t necessarily want government to get out of the way, it wants government to be at its side working together was a really important point. He may not be 100% correct - some businesses do just want to be left alone (usually those that make money by not having to pay for the social or environmental externalities they create), but he’s right about many.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    Even if they cannot, they can make the Ukrainians hurt as much as possible before the end, even if that also hurts them more.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    kle4 said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    Even if they cannot, they can make the Ukrainians hurt as much as possible before the end, even if that also hurts them more.
    Think the russians want a 2 front war where they can try and use manpower to overwhelm ukrainians
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,870

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    You’ll know of course that I have been predicting a Russian/Belarus invasion - speeding towards kyiv from the Belarus border - for some time

    It’s the obvious move for Putin. And it could snatch victory from defeat etc etc

    But given the track record of his army he will struggle again. And he has failed to permanently destroy Ukraine’s energy supplies with his bombardment
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    Best case scenario: invasion lasts about 3 hours; Belarusian soldiers desert and mutiny; Lukashenka loses power in a popular revolution supported by the military; This creates the perfect domino for the complete collapse of the Putin regime in Russia.

    Worst case scenario: it buys Russia some time and distracts Ukraine from Kherson and Luhansk.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,000

    It’s too late for the Tories, they are indelibly stained with the corruption, arrogance and ineptitude of the last six years or more.

    They need to delete their account.

    It's a shade more nuanced - they need to allow themselves to be punished by the electorate (I'll leave @Leon to interpret that last clause). Parties which squirm around seeking to avoid electoral reckoning end up getting a bigger shellacking (@TSE) than if they had fronted up at once.

    An angry electorate needs the opportunity to vent that anger and kicking out local councillors isn't enough.

    Once the anger is vented, however, there will be a clean slate and in time voters will return - the Conservatives have to accept they can't stay in power forever, there will be a reckoning with the electorate and their best hope is to take that reckoning, deal with it and renew.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    FPT:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone reckon hunt could increase 45p to 50?

    If Hunt increases it back to the level Brown had it and which Osborne cut back what is the point of voting Tory?
    It would still be well below the 60% rate Thatcher accepted until 1988.
    Thatcher cut it to 40% by the time she left office from the 83% Labour had left it at in 1979. Indeed the 60% rate was still a Thatcherite cut compared to the last Labour government
    The point is that 60% was a rate Thatcher felt able to live with for 9 years of her time in office.
    IIRC she wanted it at 50% and it was Lawson who convinced her to go for 40%. I've always thought 50% was the appropriate level (including NIC). Nobody making >150k in the UK could do it without the stability (sic) and infrastructure offered by the British state so it seems reasonable to split the lottery winnings of being a high earner 50/50 with the state apparatus that makes it possible.
    You are forgetting NI.

    I actually watched the Laffer Curve in action - a rich American relative, living here, binned his tax lawyers and just paid the top rate when it changed. He said that he liked publica services, but paying more than 50% just felt too much.
    Er I said 50% including NIC!
    Sorry - yes.

    The problem with NIC is how much it has been mucked up over the years. Roll it into income tax.

    The ambition of the state should be that the rules for living in this country should fit on a small set of postcards. Setting tax at a sensible, easy to understand and hard to avoid level is in my top 10.
    Agreed. Get rid of NIC. My preferred income tax regime would look something like first 10k tax free. 10k to 100k at 25%. Above 100k at 50%. Thresholds uprated with inflation automatically. I don't like the way we keep cutting income tax rates, people should pay for public services and know that they cost money if you want them to be good, we choose how they are run (so don't vote for chancers) and you can't run them on the never never or expect someone else to pay for them. Income tax is the fairest tax so it should be the bedrock of our tax system.
    From a rough and ready calc, rolling NI into Income Tax would net the government an additional £32bn pa, ignoring the additional amount that would be gained from pensions income and earners over 66.

    While rolling NIC into Income Tax, the government could drop the contributory ESA offering saving another £4.5bn, since anyone without other savings or income could could claim UC (and they usually do tbf).

    So £36bn + whatever extra is paid by wealthy pensioners.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Former Conservative Minister @CrispinBlunt tells @AFNeil that Liz Truss needs to be replaced immediately by a ‘combination’ of @RishiSunak , @PennyMordaunt and @Jeremy_Hunt

    Triumvirates never go badly, everyone knows that.
    If Crispin Hunt is the best that the 'group of senior Tories who are going to come out and call for Truss to go' can come up with - a man with no political prospects or capital to sacrifice, it's disappointing to say the least.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    edited October 16
    carnforth said:

    Nigelb said:

    Should, not will...

    Tesco boss John Allan describing Labour as “the only team on the field”will horrify Tory MPs.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1581576119756939265

    It’s precisely on topic. “It’s the economy stupid” and Tesco is a big fucking chunk of the economy.

    Big business turning to Labour was a brick in the arch of New Labour.
    He has a point. But two caveats:

    Firstly, John Allan was a second-referendumer even when the CBI, which he ran, declined to take a position:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47891982

    Secondly, in the interview today he makes the error of comparing the UK and RoI GDP per capita when even the RoI government says GDP isn’t a good measure of the Irish economy. Not as egregious as Carney pretending that comparing countries by nominal USD GDP is sensible yesterday, but pretty bad.
    Instead of nitpicking, why don’t you go compare UK GDP per cap (PPP) with G7 peers since 2010, and perhaps again since 2016.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Leon said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    You’ll know of course that I have been predicting a Russian/Belarus invasion - speeding towards kyiv from the Belarus border - for some time

    It’s the obvious move for Putin. And it could snatch victory from defeat etc etc

    But given the track record of his army he will struggle again. And he has failed to permanently destroy Ukraine’s energy supplies with his bombardment
    Many of us have, because it’s what the ultra nationalist bloggers have been calling for for weeks.

    It’s a big risk. Belarus (the people thereof, not the President) is not going to be a supine Putin puppet.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    stodge said:

    It’s too late for the Tories, they are indelibly stained with the corruption, arrogance and ineptitude of the last six years or more.

    They need to delete their account.

    It's a shade more nuanced - they need to allow themselves to be punished by the electorate (I'll leave @Leon to interpret that last clause). Parties which squirm around seeking to avoid electoral reckoning end up getting a bigger shellacking (@TSE) than if they had fronted up at once.

    An angry electorate needs the opportunity to vent that anger and kicking out local councillors isn't enough.

    Once the anger is vented, however, there will be a clean slate and in time voters will return - the Conservatives have to accept they can't stay in power forever, there will be a reckoning with the electorate and their best hope is to take that reckoning, deal with it and renew.
    I agree.
    The public has a strong psychological need to wreak vengeance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,870
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    You’ll know of course that I have been predicting a Russian/Belarus invasion - speeding towards kyiv from the Belarus border - for some time

    It’s the obvious move for Putin. And it could snatch victory from defeat etc etc

    But given the track record of his army he will struggle again. And he has failed to permanently destroy Ukraine’s energy supplies with his bombardment
    Many of us have, because it’s what the ultra nationalist bloggers have been calling for for weeks.

    It’s a big risk. Belarus (the people thereof, not the President) is not going to be a supine Putin puppet.
    Funny. I swear there were multiple PBers telling me that “the Russians are simply going in to police Belarus” (!!!) and “Belarus is sending kit to Russia this means nothing” etc etc

    In fact I remember a PB-er saying “the Russians are sending their troops to Belarus just so they can be more conveniently fed and housed there”
  • WillGWillG Posts: 592
    Having been thinking about things, I think the Tories should replace the current leadership with this big four:

    PM: Penny Mordaunt
    Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
    Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
    Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch

    A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Former Conservative Minister @CrispinBlunt tells @AFNeil that Liz Truss needs to be replaced immediately by a ‘combination’ of @RishiSunak , @PennyMordaunt and @Jeremy_Hunt

    Triumvirates never go badly, everyone knows that.
    If Crispin Hunt is the best that the 'group of senior Tories who are going to come out and call for Truss to go' can come up with - a man with no political prospects or capital to sacrifice, it's disappointing to say the least.
    So most Tories think Liz is wonderful and are desperate for her to stay in place?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,620
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    We are looking forward to a long period of "the Tories totally messed this up". And the problem with that line is that, however true it is, people weary of it when what they want is things to get better.
    All the more so when nothing they do actually makes it better because they are in denial about the underlying issue which is that our current social welfare model is fundamentally flawed and has within it the seeds of its own destruction. I would like to think Labour are bright enough to see this and start to make slow steady changes. But they aren't and they won't.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited October 16
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the lochs and the waterfalls as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks. Absolutely glorious. And now the rather brilliant Skye bridge.

    I am coming over all @SeanT : someone is paying me for this?

    Excellent. Maybe just change it thus:


    “On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the rough waters, and the cataracts, as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks.”

    Avoiding the repetition of “loch” and “water” etc but adding a “ca” echo

    Thanks. But you must forgive mere lawyers some repetition; it is innate.

    Sometimes, when I don’t get here for a while you forget that this is truly one of the most beautiful countries in the world.

    Edit. Besides, I was attempting to copy your style but your rather brilliant achievements in getting people to pay you to do fun things.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,870
    WillG said:

    Having been thinking about things, I think the Tories should replace the current leadership with this big four:

    PM: Penny Mordaunt
    Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
    Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
    Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch

    A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.

    That’s not bad. The weird thing is the Tories do have some talent left in the tanks, despite the Trussterfuck

    They need to do it quickly. Every day they dawdle their chances of minimising their inevitable defeat melt away further

    Can’t see them winning in 2024. But they can still prevent a large outright Labour majority
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    Although they were already effectively part of it, Belarus being so much more involved surely means NATO and the West need to figure out some additional way to even the scales.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 592
    Leon said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    You’ll know of course that I have been predicting a Russian/Belarus invasion - speeding towards kyiv from the Belarus border - for some time

    It’s the obvious move for Putin. And it could snatch victory from defeat etc etc

    But given the track record of his army he will struggle again. And he has failed to permanently destroy Ukraine’s energy supplies with his bombardment
    While some people have zig zagged back and forth on this, some of us have pointed out Ukraine would inevitably win from the start. It is a matter of when not if. Best case scenario for Putin is the next leader allows him to live out a life of luxury in some Siberian estate. Worst case scenario is he is handed over to the Hague.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646
    Why not a government of all the Chancellors?

    Sunak
    Hunt
    Javid
    Zahawi
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    TimS said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    Best case scenario: invasion lasts about 3 hours; Belarusian soldiers desert and mutiny; Lukashenka loses power in a popular revolution supported by the military; This creates the perfect domino for the complete collapse of the Putin regime in Russia.

    Worst case scenario: it buys Russia some time and distracts Ukraine from Kherson and Luhansk.
    The worst-case scenario also involves a renewal of the refugee crisis I suppose. They are already accommodating refugees in tents in Ireland.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    DavidL said:


    Sometimes, when I don’t get here for a while you forget that this is truly one of the most beautiful countries in the world.

    I'd endorse that. The balance of the various elements - mountain, sky, water - is perhaps not better achieved anywhere else.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 592
    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Having been thinking about things, I think the Tories should replace the current leadership with this big four:

    PM: Penny Mordaunt
    Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
    Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
    Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch

    A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.

    That’s not bad. The weird thing is the Tories do have some talent left in the tanks, despite the Trussterfuck

    They need to do it quickly. Every day they dawdle their chances of minimising their inevitable defeat melt away further

    Can’t see them winning in 2024. But they can still prevent a large outright Labour majority
    I agree. The Tories will almost certainly lose the next election. But they can keep it to a slight loss, get Starmer to come in with no real enthusiasm behind him, and then hammer him on opening up the doors again on immigration in the red wall, and failing to fix the economic challenges of COVID/Ukraine over the next 5 years. Then come back in 2029 with a serious team.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Having been thinking about things, I think the Tories should replace the current leadership with this big four:

    PM: Penny Mordaunt
    Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
    Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
    Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch

    A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.

    That’s not bad. The weird thing is the Tories do have some talent left in the tanks, despite the Trussterfuck

    They need to do it quickly. Every day they dawdle their chances of minimising their inevitable defeat melt away further

    Can’t see them winning in 2024. But they can still prevent a large outright Labour majority
    The problem, as HYUFD pointed out, is that the local associations will simply deselect any MP who doesn't go along with the Truss/Braverman/Rees-Mogg model. So it's a bit of a bind.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    stjohn said:

    Why not a government of all the Chancellors?

    Sunak
    Hunt
    Javid
    Zahawi

    Yes, they could adopt the tactics of the Dead Presidents in Point Break to resolve the financial chaos.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,870
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the lochs and the waterfalls as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks. Absolutely glorious. And now the rather brilliant Skye bridge.

    I am coming over all @SeanT : someone is paying me for this?

    Excellent. Maybe just change it thus:


    “On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the rough waters, and the cataracts, as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks.”

    Avoiding the repetition of “loch” and “water” etc but adding a “ca” echo

    Thanks. But you must forgive mere lawyers some repetition; it is innate.

    Sometimes, when I don’t get here for a while you forget that this is truly one of the most beautiful countries in the world.

    Driving around Colorado these last days has reminded me how beautiful and fascinating the UK is - and in such a tiny space (despite our often horrible new houses)

    Parts of the Rockies are fab and I love the frontier feel here. But there are 100 mile stretches of Colorado where nothing happens. At all. Strip malls and inane residential development. That’s it. And it is quite bleak even in the dazzling sun

    The beer tho. American beer is maybe the best in the world now. Such incredible variety
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    WillG said:

    Having been thinking about things, I think the Tories should replace the current leadership with this big four:

    PM: Penny Mordaunt
    Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
    Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
    Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch

    A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.

    Wallace to stay at Defence. But time to start some blooding some of the more recent intakes. Let's see those who might challenge for the big four jobs in the 2030's. They might well not have experience of Govt. again until then, so give them some time in Cabinet now. Who knows, if they are good enough, they might even turn things around.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    You’ll know of course that I have been predicting a Russian/Belarus invasion - speeding towards kyiv from the Belarus border - for some time

    It’s the obvious move for Putin. And it could snatch victory from defeat etc etc

    But given the track record of his army he will struggle again. And he has failed to permanently destroy Ukraine’s energy supplies with his bombardment
    Many of us have, because it’s what the ultra nationalist bloggers have been calling for for weeks.

    It’s a big risk. Belarus (the people thereof, not the President) is not going to be a supine Putin puppet.
    Funny. I swear there were multiple PBers telling me that “the Russians are simply going in to police Belarus” (!!!) and “Belarus is sending kit to Russia this means nothing” etc etc

    In fact I remember a PB-er saying “the Russians are sending their troops to Belarus just so they can be more conveniently fed and housed there”
    Yes, I said that Belarus was sending kit to Russia and therefore I was confident another push from Belarus wouldn't come. But, well, the only way to never be wrong is to never say anything at all.

    I keep on thinking that Russia has reached the point where it has run out of options, and they keep on managing to prolong the war. The news about the SRBMs from Iran is similar.
  • HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    Both, but the public would accept it on the wholly reasonable grounds that it wasn't their fault and they couldn't do much else.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Former Conservative Minister @CrispinBlunt tells @AFNeil that Liz Truss needs to be replaced immediately by a ‘combination’ of @RishiSunak , @PennyMordaunt and @Jeremy_Hunt

    Triumvirates never go badly, everyone knows that.
    If Crispin Hunt is the best that the 'group of senior Tories who are going to come out and call for Truss to go' can come up with - a man with no political prospects or capital to sacrifice, it's disappointing to say the least.
    So most Tories think Liz is wonderful and are desperate for her to stay in place?
    I think the plotters don't have the nuts; I think Jeremy Hunt's appointment has bought Truss some time; I think it's borrowed time at the moment but politics can turn on a hair. I'd like the plotters to go for it, or Starmer to VONC, because those two things would be good for Truss.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    You’ll know of course that I have been predicting a Russian/Belarus invasion - speeding towards kyiv from the Belarus border - for some time

    It’s the obvious move for Putin. And it could snatch victory from defeat etc etc

    But given the track record of his army he will struggle again. And he has failed to permanently destroy Ukraine’s energy supplies with his bombardment
    Many of us have, because it’s what the ultra nationalist bloggers have been calling for for weeks.

    It’s a big risk. Belarus (the people thereof, not the President) is not going to be a supine Putin puppet.
    Funny. I swear there were multiple PBers telling me that “the Russians are simply going in to police Belarus” (!!!) and “Belarus is sending kit to Russia this means nothing” etc etc

    In fact I remember a PB-er saying “the Russians are sending their troops to Belarus just so they can be more conveniently fed and housed there”
    Multiple PBers saying one thing doesn’t meant multiple people (including PBers) saying or thinking another thing.

    Multiple PBers kept telling us Liz Truss would surprise on the upside.

    From my perspective it’s seemed likely Russia would try from the North again because why wouldn’t you? I’d be tempted - light touch, enough to cause panic and fear, don’t commit too much. Trouble is they have to contend with a Belarus population who hate their leader.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Former Conservative Minister @CrispinBlunt tells @AFNeil that Liz Truss needs to be replaced immediately by a ‘combination’ of @RishiSunak , @PennyMordaunt and @Jeremy_Hunt

    Triumvirates never go badly, everyone knows that.
    If Crispin Hunt is the best that the 'group of senior Tories who are going to come out and call for Truss to go' can come up with - a man with no political prospects or capital to sacrifice, it's disappointing to say the least.
    So most Tories think Liz is wonderful and are desperate for her to stay in place?
    I think the plotters don't have the nuts; I think Jeremy Hunt's appointment has bought Truss some time; I think it's borrowed time at the moment but politics can turn on a hair. I'd like the plotters to go for it, or Starmer to VONC, because those two things would be good for Truss.
    Hunt is her parole officer, not her bodyguard.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    HYUFD said:

    Unlike 1997 however Labour would not be left with a largely balanced budget, low inflation and low taxes.

    Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both

    Both, but the public would accept it on the wholly reasonable grounds that it wasn't their fault and they couldn't do much else.
    In theory, in reality the Labour left is not going to accept PM Starmer's government pursuing austerity and the average voter is not going to be too patient if their tax bill keeps going up either!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    “Depressed” @trussliz has changed her mobile number so many times that as of today, some cabinet ministers can no longer contact her, I’m told.
    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876

    FPT:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone reckon hunt could increase 45p to 50?

    If Hunt increases it back to the level Brown had it and which Osborne cut back what is the point of voting Tory?
    It would still be well below the 60% rate Thatcher accepted until 1988.
    Thatcher cut it to 40% by the time she left office from the 83% Labour had left it at in 1979. Indeed the 60% rate was still a Thatcherite cut compared to the last Labour government
    The point is that 60% was a rate Thatcher felt able to live with for 9 years of her time in office.
    IIRC she wanted it at 50% and it was Lawson who convinced her to go for 40%. I've always thought 50% was the appropriate level (including NIC). Nobody making >150k in the UK could do it without the stability (sic) and infrastructure offered by the British state so it seems reasonable to split the lottery winnings of being a high earner 50/50 with the state apparatus that makes it possible.
    You are forgetting NI.

    I actually watched the Laffer Curve in action - a rich American relative, living here, binned his tax lawyers and just paid the top rate when it changed. He said that he liked publica services, but paying more than 50% just felt too much.
    Er I said 50% including NIC!
    Sorry - yes.

    The problem with NIC is how much it has been mucked up over the years. Roll it into income tax.

    The ambition of the state should be that the rules for living in this country should fit on a small set of postcards. Setting tax at a sensible, easy to understand and hard to avoid level is in my top 10.
    Agreed. Get rid of NIC. My preferred income tax regime would look something like first 10k tax free. 10k to 100k at 25%. Above 100k at 50%. Thresholds uprated with inflation automatically. I don't like the way we keep cutting income tax rates, people should pay for public services and know that they cost money if you want them to be good, we choose how they are run (so don't vote for chancers) and you can't run them on the never never or expect someone else to pay for them. Income tax is the fairest tax so it should be the bedrock of our tax system.
    From a rough and ready calc, rolling NI into Income Tax would net the government an additional £32bn pa, ignoring the additional amount that would be gained from pensions income and earners over 66.

    While rolling NIC into Income Tax, the government could drop the contributory ESA offering saving another £4.5bn, since anyone without other savings or income could could claim UC (and they usually do tbf).

    So £36bn + whatever extra is paid by wealthy pensioners.
    I think abolishing NIC is good. As a working pensioner I don't mind having to pay more tax in that situation. Not sure how the employer NIC contributions are dealt with though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    edited October 16

    WillG said:

    Having been thinking about things, I think the Tories should replace the current leadership with this big four:

    PM: Penny Mordaunt
    Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
    Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
    Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch

    A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.

    But time to start some blooding some of the more recent intakes.
    That's what Truss did - 2 were 2017 intake and 6 were 2015, that is pretty early to get into the Cabinet (though one was Jack, so hardly counts, since it is down to limited options for SCON MPs). Wallace was the only one elected prior to 2010.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    You’ll know of course that I have been predicting a Russian/Belarus invasion - speeding towards kyiv from the Belarus border - for some time

    It’s the obvious move for Putin. And it could snatch victory from defeat etc etc

    But given the track record of his army he will struggle again. And he has failed to permanently destroy Ukraine’s energy supplies with his bombardment
    While some people have zig zagged back and forth on this, some of us have pointed out Ukraine would inevitably win from the start. It is a matter of when not if. Best case scenario for Putin is the next leader allows him to live out a life of luxury in some Siberian estate. Worst case scenario is he is handed over to the Hague.
    In the process Putin would lose Belarus as a client state. His last bordering on Europe. The loss of it as a means to attack Ukraine would be painful, but nowhere near as bad as a fully democratic Belarus asking to join NATO. On top of Sweden and Finland, that would be a massive line of contact, coming as a direct result of the SMO. It would surely signal his end.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    I've heard the line 'Party X will lose the next general election, but that will just amount to a four-year holiday, and they'll be back when party Y royally screws up' many times before without it coming to pass.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Former Conservative Minister @CrispinBlunt tells @AFNeil that Liz Truss needs to be replaced immediately by a ‘combination’ of @RishiSunak , @PennyMordaunt and @Jeremy_Hunt

    Triumvirates never go badly, everyone knows that.
    If Crispin Hunt is the best that the 'group of senior Tories who are going to come out and call for Truss to go' can come up with - a man with no political prospects or capital to sacrifice, it's disappointing to say the least.
    But he has form on getting results; he started the ball rolling on IDS.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    I've heard the line 'Party X will lose the next general election, but that will just amount to a four-year holiday, and they'll be back when party Y royally screws up' many times before without it coming to pass.

    You obviously weren't around in the 1960s and 1970s then when we changed government 4 times in 15 years
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    HYUFD said:

    I've heard the line 'Party X will lose the next general election, but that will just amount to a four-year holiday, and they'll be back when party Y royally screws up' many times before without it coming to pass.

    You obviously weren't around in the 1960s and 1970s then when we changed government 4 times in 15 years
    Odd.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    ...
    stjohn said:

    Why not a government of all the Chancellors?

    Sunak
    Hunt
    Javid
    Zahawi

    Reminds me of an Alec Guiness line from Star Wars, about the bar they go to? 'Scum and villainy' were part of it I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    We weren't in the room because our Chancellor had been called home to be sacked; be interesting to see whether his successor (or even the successor to that successor) can garner some respect.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540

    ...

    stjohn said:

    Why not a government of all the Chancellors?

    Sunak
    Hunt
    Javid
    Zahawi

    Reminds me of an Alec Guiness line from Star Wars, about the bar they go to? 'Scum and villainy' were part of it I think.
    "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy."

    I think it's a bit harsh.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    only 20 mins left ic.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    edited October 16
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the lochs and the waterfalls as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks. Absolutely glorious. And now the rather brilliant Skye bridge.

    I am coming over all @SeanT : someone is paying me for this?

    Excellent. Maybe just change it thus:


    “On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the rough waters, and the cataracts, as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks.”

    Avoiding the repetition of “loch” and “water” etc but adding a “ca” echo

    Thanks. But you must forgive mere lawyers some repetition; it is innate.

    Sometimes, when I don’t get here for a while you forget that this is truly one of the most beautiful countries in the world.

    Driving around Colorado these last days has reminded me how beautiful and fascinating the UK is - and in such a tiny space (despite our often horrible new houses)

    Parts of the Rockies are fab and I love the frontier feel here. But there are 100 mile stretches of Colorado where nothing happens. At all. Strip malls and inane residential development. That’s it. And it is quite bleak even in the dazzling sun

    The beer tho. American beer is maybe the best in the world now. Such incredible variety
    The British landscape genius, with the exception I guess of the Highlands etc, is the largely domesticated geography of church steeple and smoke issuing from chimneys in the “next village on”.

    It’s the feeling evoked by that Adlestrop poem.

    Britain should do more of that.

    There is a urban genius too, of garden squares and pepperpot chimneys, think Mary Poppins.

    Britain should do more of that too.

    https://twitter.com/kelhamcooke/status/1581641036090454016?s=46&t=sdg6s_ZXBLFwMhGBbudIvA

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    kle4 said:

    WillG said:

    Having been thinking about things, I think the Tories should replace the current leadership with this big four:

    PM: Penny Mordaunt
    Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
    Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
    Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch

    A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.

    But time to start some blooding some of the more recent intakes.
    That's what Truss did - 2 were 2017 intake and 6 were 2015, that is pretty early to get into the Cabinet (though one was Jack, so hardly counts, since it is down to limited options for SCON MPs). Wallace was the only one elected prior to 2010.


    But of the first 10 listed in Cabinet, only Wallace would remain. There is scope for a huge shake up.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,620

    FPT:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone reckon hunt could increase 45p to 50?

    If Hunt increases it back to the level Brown had it and which Osborne cut back what is the point of voting Tory?
    It would still be well below the 60% rate Thatcher accepted until 1988.
    Thatcher cut it to 40% by the time she left office from the 83% Labour had left it at in 1979. Indeed the 60% rate was still a Thatcherite cut compared to the last Labour government
    The point is that 60% was a rate Thatcher felt able to live with for 9 years of her time in office.
    IIRC she wanted it at 50% and it was Lawson who convinced her to go for 40%. I've always thought 50% was the appropriate level (including NIC). Nobody making >150k in the UK could do it without the stability (sic) and infrastructure offered by the British state so it seems reasonable to split the lottery winnings of being a high earner 50/50 with the state apparatus that makes it possible.
    You are forgetting NI.

    I actually watched the Laffer Curve in action - a rich American relative, living here, binned his tax lawyers and just paid the top rate when it changed. He said that he liked publica services, but paying more than 50% just felt too much.
    Er I said 50% including NIC!
    Sorry - yes.

    The problem with NIC is how much it has been mucked up over the years. Roll it into income tax.

    The ambition of the state should be that the rules for living in this country should fit on a small set of postcards. Setting tax at a sensible, easy to understand and hard to avoid level is in my top 10.
    Agreed. Get rid of NIC. My preferred income tax regime would look something like first 10k tax free. 10k to 100k at 25%. Above 100k at 50%. Thresholds uprated with inflation automatically. I don't like the way we keep cutting income tax rates, people should pay for public services and know that they cost money if you want them to be good, we choose how they are run (so don't vote for chancers) and you can't run them on the never never or expect someone else to pay for them. Income tax is the fairest tax so it should be the bedrock of our tax system.
    From a rough and ready calc, rolling NI into Income Tax would net the government an additional £32bn pa, ignoring the additional amount that would be gained from pensions income and earners over 66.

    While rolling NIC into Income Tax, the government could drop the contributory ESA offering saving another £4.5bn, since anyone without other savings or income could could claim UC (and they usually do tbf).

    So £36bn + whatever extra is paid by wealthy pensioners.
    I think abolishing NIC is good. As a working pensioner I don't mind having to pay more tax in that situation. Not sure how the employer NIC contributions are dealt with though.
    Replace Employer NIC with a headcount tax. Get them to pay the equivalent of employers NIC on both employees and IR35 contractors.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876

    FPT:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone reckon hunt could increase 45p to 50?

    If Hunt increases it back to the level Brown had it and which Osborne cut back what is the point of voting Tory?
    It would still be well below the 60% rate Thatcher accepted until 1988.
    Thatcher cut it to 40% by the time she left office from the 83% Labour had left it at in 1979. Indeed the 60% rate was still a Thatcherite cut compared to the last Labour government
    The point is that 60% was a rate Thatcher felt able to live with for 9 years of her time in office.
    IIRC she wanted it at 50% and it was Lawson who convinced her to go for 40%. I've always thought 50% was the appropriate level (including NIC). Nobody making >150k in the UK could do it without the stability (sic) and infrastructure offered by the British state so it seems reasonable to split the lottery winnings of being a high earner 50/50 with the state apparatus that makes it possible.
    You are forgetting NI.

    I actually watched the Laffer Curve in action - a rich American relative, living here, binned his tax lawyers and just paid the top rate when it changed. He said that he liked publica services, but paying more than 50% just felt too much.
    Er I said 50% including NIC!
    Sorry - yes.

    The problem with NIC is how much it has been mucked up over the years. Roll it into income tax.

    The ambition of the state should be that the rules for living in this country should fit on a small set of postcards. Setting tax at a sensible, easy to understand and hard to avoid level is in my top 10.
    Agreed. Get rid of NIC. My preferred income tax regime would look something like first 10k tax free. 10k to 100k at 25%. Above 100k at 50%. Thresholds uprated with inflation automatically. I don't like the way we keep cutting income tax rates, people should pay for public services and know that they cost money if you want them to be good, we choose how they are run (so don't vote for chancers) and you can't run them on the never never or expect someone else to pay for them. Income tax is the fairest tax so it should be the bedrock of our tax system.
    From a rough and ready calc, rolling NI into Income Tax would net the government an additional £32bn pa, ignoring the additional amount that would be gained from pensions income and earners over 66.

    While rolling NIC into Income Tax, the government could drop the contributory ESA offering saving another £4.5bn, since anyone without other savings or income could could claim UC (and they usually do tbf).

    So £36bn + whatever extra is paid by wealthy pensioners.
    I think abolishing NIC is good. As a working pensioner I don't mind having to pay more tax in that situation. Not sure how the employer NIC contributions are dealt with though.
    Replace Employer NIC with a headcount tax. Get them to pay the equivalent of employers NIC on both employees and IR35 contractors.
    I like that.

    How would you decide counting years for pension purposes?
This discussion has been closed.