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Memo to the Tories: Look stupid, it’s the economy – politicalbetting.com
Memo to the Tories: Look stupid, it’s the economy – politicalbetting.com
Labour and Keir Starmer now have a 21pt lead over the Tories and Liz Truss on the economyWhich government do you think would be better for managing the economy?A Con government led by Liz Truss: 16%A Lab government led by Keir Starmer: 37%https://t.co/JhR4I1k8im pic.twitter.com/8aAs1RURyd
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Let's get ready for the all new serious Tory government.
Watch a special edition of #TheAndrewNeilShow: Can Liz Truss survive?
Tonight, @Channel4 6.15pm https://twitter.com/Channel4/status/1581631885821681666/video/1
And not forgetting that @CrispinBlunt was the first senior Tory to call on Iain Duncan Smith to resign back in 2003, as I reported in the @guardian with @michaelwhite. Duncan Smith was out within months https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2003/may/01/conservatives.uk1 https://twitter.com/channel4/status/1581631885821681666
Tesco boss John Allan describing Labour as “the only team on the field”will horrify Tory MPs.
https://mobile.twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1581576119756939265
They still have two years to implement the policies to correct the terrible reputational damage their colleagues have inflicted. They could still look like the smartest minds in the room come autumn 2024, despite the shit show of recent weeks.
They're fighting like cats in a sack.
Yours truly has a commemorative ceramic whiskey bottle (Jim Beam) in the shape of The Broadmoor.
Which also is the place where in 1940, Republican "dark horse" (sorta) presidential nominee Wendell Willkie came, after winning the nomination at RNC, to prepare for his Fall campaign against Franklin Roosevelt.
Hope it works out better for our wandering PBer than it did for WW!
I LOVE this hotel. The history is fabulous, it’s basically unknown outside the USA
Also: the food is superb. I had maybe the best ceviche of my life last night, then some wonderful Alaskan halibut
And the dry martinis in the “Prohibition” bar
👍
To be fair hes right the best outcome is Truss as a powerless figurehead whilst Hunt actually runs the country
Instead post Covid and Ukraine they too would have to reckon with the need to balance the books, increase taxes or cut spending or both
such an unnecessary self- harming event.
Big business turning to Labour was a brick in the arch of New Labour.
Truss back to 1.76 (layable) to go in 2022. Tempted to bet against that again. Time is very short, and if she did go in that time frame then Hunt might be in pole position.
Too late now. Mortgage rates were rising. And will continue to do so, no matter what anyone does.
It is the particular genius of the KT tenure to have indelibly linked it to government actions.
I am coming over all @SeanT : someone is paying me for this?
The fact in the 1990s Conservative propaganda was still going on about the Winter of Discontent claiming Blair would see the Unions back to their full power (laughable then and laughable now) shows how these events can resonate.
If a future Conservative Shadow Chancellor puts forward a tax cutting agenda, you can be sure Labour will wheel out the Truss/Kwarteng debacle and remind people of just how bad it was. As the Mail remorsefully implied yesterday, that whole supply-side, low-tax, push of growth agenda has now been even more discredited as AV and as they called it the "Treasury Orthodoxy" has triumphed (Hunt is the personification of this and his anti-Conservative tax raising measures will be dictated by senior civil servants at the Treasury (apparently)).
Laughable yesterday, still amusing today but how much will the Conservatives enjoy the joke over the next 18 months?
Immunity from attack during hmq obsequies, imminent defeat of Russia
Hmm.
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952
If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:
1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.
I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.
“On the way to Skye for a site visit. Up through the great glen and down to the sea lochs of the west. Sun glinting on the rough waters, and the cataracts, as the rain clouds dash through. Snow capping the highest peaks.”
Avoiding the repetition of “loch” and “water” etc but adding a “ca” echo
Firstly, John Allan was a second-referendumer even when the CBI, which he ran, declined to take a position:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47891982
Secondly, in the interview today he makes the error of comparing the UK and RoI GDP per capita when even the RoI government says GDP isn’t a good measure of the Irish economy. Not as egregious as Carney pretending that comparing countries by nominal USD GDP is sensible yesterday, but pretty bad.
They need to delete their account.
The Tesco boss comment is a straw in the wind for something big. “Business” is now pretty relaxed about a Starmer led government, and teetering on being actively in favour. Just like the mid 1990s.
I thought Starmer’s comment last weekend that business doesn’t necessarily want government to get out of the way, it wants government to be at its side working together was a really important point. He may not be 100% correct - some businesses do just want to be left alone (usually those that make money by not having to pay for the social or environmental externalities they create), but he’s right about many.
It’s the obvious move for Putin. And it could snatch victory from defeat etc etc
But given the track record of his army he will struggle again. And he has failed to permanently destroy Ukraine’s energy supplies with his bombardment
Worst case scenario: it buys Russia some time and distracts Ukraine from Kherson and Luhansk.
An angry electorate needs the opportunity to vent that anger and kicking out local councillors isn't enough.
Once the anger is vented, however, there will be a clean slate and in time voters will return - the Conservatives have to accept they can't stay in power forever, there will be a reckoning with the electorate and their best hope is to take that reckoning, deal with it and renew.
While rolling NIC into Income Tax, the government could drop the contributory ESA offering saving another £4.5bn, since anyone without other savings or income could could claim UC (and they usually do tbf).
So £36bn + whatever extra is paid by wealthy pensioners.
It’s a big risk. Belarus (the people thereof, not the President) is not going to be a supine Putin puppet.
The public has a strong psychological need to wreak vengeance.
In fact I remember a PB-er saying “the Russians are sending their troops to Belarus just so they can be more conveniently fed and housed there”
PM: Penny Mordaunt
Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch
A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.
Sometimes, when I don’t get here for a while you forget that this is truly one of the most beautiful countries in the world.
Edit. Besides, I was attempting to copy your style but your rather brilliant achievements in getting people to pay you to do fun things.
They need to do it quickly. Every day they dawdle their chances of minimising their inevitable defeat melt away further
Can’t see them winning in 2024. But they can still prevent a large outright Labour majority
Sunak
Hunt
Javid
Zahawi
Parts of the Rockies are fab and I love the frontier feel here. But there are 100 mile stretches of Colorado where nothing happens. At all. Strip malls and inane residential development. That’s it. And it is quite bleak even in the dazzling sun
The beer tho. American beer is maybe the best in the world now. Such incredible variety
I keep on thinking that Russia has reached the point where it has run out of options, and they keep on managing to prolong the war. The news about the SRBMs from Iran is similar.
Multiple PBers kept telling us Liz Truss would surprise on the upside.
From my perspective it’s seemed likely Russia would try from the North again because why wouldn’t you? I’d be tempted - light touch, enough to cause panic and fear, don’t commit too much. Trouble is they have to contend with a Belarus population who hate their leader.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681
First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.
I think it's a bit harsh.
It’s the feeling evoked by that Adlestrop poem.
Britain should do more of that.
There is a urban genius too, of garden squares and pepperpot chimneys, think Mary Poppins.
Britain should do more of that too.
https://twitter.com/kelhamcooke/status/1581641036090454016?s=46&t=sdg6s_ZXBLFwMhGBbudIvA
How would you decide counting years for pension purposes?