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Memo to the Tories: Look stupid, it’s the economy – politicalbetting.com

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  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,014
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WillG said:

    Having been thinking about things, I think the Tories should replace the current leadership with this big four:

    PM: Penny Mordaunt
    Chancellor: Rishi Sunak
    Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Hunt
    Home Secretary: Kemi Badenoch

    A charismatic person at the top who could reset the Tory brand. A finance minister to reassure the markets. A foreign minister who would be well liked in foreign capitals. A home secretary who gets it on immigration and could put Labour on the defensive in the red wall. And a diverse team that looks like modern Britain.

    I love that the main function of a reset on PB this afternoon is for the Conservatives to win an election against the head, and another, and another, whether they deserve to or not?

    The national interest doesn't come into it. Keep that gravy train rolling.
    If you had to pick a team from the current Tory MPs, that list is not the worst I have seen, but your point stands.

    How about we let the voters have a go?

    Can they really fuck it up worse than the Tory members did?
    I am of an age where it matters not a jot in fiscal terms who wins the next election. Nonetheless the one party state that we have become cannot be healthy. " We are losing the argument, quick let's throw some red meat to The RedWall".

    In terms of just desserts and karma the Conservatives deserve to be out of office for a considerable time, not least because Johnson sold the notion of Brexit simply to become Prime Minister. Most Conservative MPs and Ministers, like Hunt, like Truss, knew it would be a fiasco, but after the event they went along for the ride anyway.
    Yes, if the Cons were to somehow shapeshift and win again Labour might as well disband.
    Or they could spend ages arguing amongst themselves as to whether PR is a good idea, eventually decide it might well be, get a vague sniff of the chance of a FPTP victory, ditch the PR idea, lose.

    Rinse and repeat.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Z, cheers. Ironically, I checked Smarkets and they have 1.51 (lay) for her going in 2022.

    I'm green roughly equally either side of that now.

    I made the bet the weekend after, I think, the mini-Budget. It was before everything exploded but as there was much grumpiness in the air.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,318

    This week I have seen confusion amongst police forces about what constitutes a ‘hate crime’.

    The police need to enforce actual laws & fight actual crimes. Freedom of speech must be protected and a proportionate approach must be taken. 1/2




    The public need to have confidence in their police forces.

    This sort of thing undermines it.

    Senior police officers who allow this to happen can expect to have to explain to me why they’re spending vital resources on politically correct campaigns.
    2/2


    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1581618197585100800

    Possibly related:

    Chief Constable Simon Cole , said:“Leicestershire Police is thrilled to have made the Stonewall top 100 employer list .

    https://tinyurl.com/248njnpa

    The UK jumped that shark ages ago.

    Although, Jane has every right to expect civil treatment and I’ve no objection especially to Leics police highlighting offensive behaviour.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    If I wasn’t speeding through rural Colorado I would find my first comments where I suggested Putin was going to invade Ukraine, again, from Belarus, and half of you laughed at me
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,158

    Scott_xP said:

    “Depressed” @trussliz has changed her mobile number so many times that as of today, some cabinet ministers can no longer contact her, I’m told.
    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681

    She can change her address soon and achieve much the same outcome.
    Aside from shedloads of people reminding Isabel that her predictions regarding Kwarteng and the budget were as way off beam as one of Leon’s, the best response on Twitter so far:

    I don't remember anyone being able to get through to Truss when she was standing right in front of them, so I don't suppose it'll make much difference if she has a phone or not.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    This week I have seen confusion amongst police forces about what constitutes a ‘hate crime’.

    The police need to enforce actual laws & fight actual crimes. Freedom of speech must be protected and a proportionate approach must be taken. 1/2




    The public need to have confidence in their police forces.

    This sort of thing undermines it.

    Senior police officers who allow this to happen can expect to have to explain to me why they’re spending vital resources on politically correct campaigns.
    2/2


    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1581618197585100800

    Possibly related:

    Chief Constable Simon Cole , said:“Leicestershire Police is thrilled to have made the Stonewall top 100 employer list .

    https://tinyurl.com/248njnpa

    The UK jumped that shark ages ago.

    Although, Jane has every right to expect civil treatment and I’ve no objection especially to Leics police highlighting offensive behaviour.

    Good manners cost nothing but bad manners aren't "crimes", let alone "hate crimes" which require reporting to police and diverting resources from real crimes.

    And "Jane" has an interesting back story:

    Weird of the #Police to use this image.
    Someone did a reverse image search which linked to this page in the following tweet.


    https://twitter.com/briancanavan1/status/1581278197312000001
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Leon said:

    If I wasn’t speeding through rural Colorado I would find my first comments where I suggested Putin was going to invade Ukraine, again, from Belarus, and half of you laughed at me

    It's possible but it isn't likely to succeed? I wonder if they'll try digging trenches around Chernobyl again?

    There is a certain crude logic to it. Send a load of young men into the meat grinder and tie up some Ukrainian forces who can't then go on the offensive elsewhere.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944
    I misread the title. I thought it was asking the Tories to look stupid. A bit late for that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Leon said:

    If I wasn’t speeding through rural Colorado I would find my first comments where I suggested Putin was going to invade Ukraine, again, from Belarus, and half of you laughed at me

    He's just trying to pull Ukr troops away from Kherson in order to reduce the pressure there imho.

    They failed last time from Belarus and the Ru military is in far more degraded state.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    If I wasn’t speeding through rural Colorado I would find my first comments where I suggested Putin was going to invade Ukraine, again, from Belarus, and half of you laughed at me

    No. We were laughing at you suggesting Liz Truss would surprise on the upside. Easy mistake to make.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    Leon said:

    The Gathering Clouds


    “Well. This looks a bit ominous.
    Video of military equipment on the move in Belarus (via @JayinKyiv). Note white triangle tactical marking. Similar was seen on some Russian military vehicles before Russia's full-scale invasion. See examples in thread below.”

    https://twitter.com/euan_macdonald/status/1581639598291095552?s=46&t=Ur17zGIZtw45p1RkMrxyAw

    Think Putin has decided he needs to take Kyiv if he is to win the war quickly....whilst the war is mainly in the south and east residents of Kyiv can still live a fairly normal life
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Eabhal said:

    @DavidL ,
    it's been a stunning weekend in the NW

    location please?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    "Just Stop Oil" should seriously review their wardrobe choices.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    This week I have seen confusion amongst police forces about what constitutes a ‘hate crime’.

    The police need to enforce actual laws & fight actual crimes. Freedom of speech must be protected and a proportionate approach must be taken. 1/2




    The public need to have confidence in their police forces.

    This sort of thing undermines it.

    Senior police officers who allow this to happen can expect to have to explain to me why they’re spending vital resources on politically correct campaigns.
    2/2


    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1581618197585100800

    Possibly related:

    Chief Constable Simon Cole , said:“Leicestershire Police is thrilled to have made the Stonewall top 100 employer list .

    https://tinyurl.com/248njnpa

    Why get rid of Patel? Braverman is very similar, but less disciplined and experienced, keeps freelancing on policy, and doesn't understand collective cabinet responsibility. However, it is the same pattern of tough rhetoric, but no action. It makes them look powerless and stupid. Even though I am positive about their attempts to deal with the 'woke' problems in the police and public sector, this was a bad example to highlight, because it suggests that it is ok to bully trans people.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    also the first failed attempt on Kyiv was in mud season when Putins tanks got bogged down...so i think this time Putin will wait for freezing conditions to start in November
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,300
    ihunt said:

    Leon said:

    The Gathering Clouds


    “Well. This looks a bit ominous.
    Video of military equipment on the move in Belarus (via @JayinKyiv). Note white triangle tactical marking. Similar was seen on some Russian military vehicles before Russia's full-scale invasion. See examples in thread below.”

    https://twitter.com/euan_macdonald/status/1581639598291095552?s=46&t=Ur17zGIZtw45p1RkMrxyAw

    Think Putin has decided he needs to take Kyiv if he is to win the war quickly....whilst the war is mainly in the south and east residents of Kyiv can still live a fairly normal life
    It's surprising that Ukraine has refrained from taking out their logistics in Belarus.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    Eabhal said:

    @DavidL ,
    it's been a stunning weekend in the NW

    location please?
    Beinn Alligin, Torridon
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,956
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Who should replace her?
    Kemi Penny Rishi Hunt in that order. A good reason to keep the membership away from the decision.
    You never seem to tire of insulting the Tory membership.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    edited October 2022
    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Funnily enough apples (France) and tomatoes (Morocco) were decently priced.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    @DavidL ,
    it's been a stunning weekend in the NW

    location please?
    Beinn Alligin, Torridon
    thank you. i've climbed that many years ago. stunning area.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,300
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Who should replace her?
    Kemi Penny Rishi Hunt in that order. A good reason to keep the membership away from the decision.
    It may just have been meaningless campaign rhetoric, but Kemi did give the impression she wanted genuine cabinet government including all wings of the party. If she had the backing of heavyweights like Hunt, Rishi and Penny, it could work.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    yeah ive noticed food prices rising significantly
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,158
    Andrew Mitchell - a close Hunt ally - comes close to suggesting Truss should go.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    edited October 2022
    Tiny margin but you can now lay at 1.6 on Smarkets and back at 1.66 on Betfair Truss to go in 2022.

    Edited extra bit: I've roughly levelled profits for this year or any other year, but sticking with a tiny green slice and big green lump for Hunt to be next leader/PM or not. If Truss does go this very year then I think there's a very good chance Hunt just gets it by acclamation without giving the members a chance to vote.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Prices have been rising in Tesco for months now. I originally thought it was to pay for the high security turnstyles they seem to have installed.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Andy_JS said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Who should replace her?
    Kemi Penny Rishi Hunt in that order. A good reason to keep the membership away from the decision.
    You never seem to tire of insulting the Tory membership.
    Both the Labour and Conservative party membership have done enormous damage to the country over the last 8 years, through their choice of unsuitable and incompetent party leaders.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,215

    ihunt said:

    Leon said:

    The Gathering Clouds


    “Well. This looks a bit ominous.
    Video of military equipment on the move in Belarus (via @JayinKyiv). Note white triangle tactical marking. Similar was seen on some Russian military vehicles before Russia's full-scale invasion. See examples in thread below.”

    https://twitter.com/euan_macdonald/status/1581639598291095552?s=46&t=Ur17zGIZtw45p1RkMrxyAw

    Think Putin has decided he needs to take Kyiv if he is to win the war quickly....whilst the war is mainly in the south and east residents of Kyiv can still live a fairly normal life
    It's surprising that Ukraine has refrained from taking out their logistics in Belarus.
    Day 1 of any incursion and that’ll happen.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2022
    darkage said:

    This week I have seen confusion amongst police forces about what constitutes a ‘hate crime’.

    The police need to enforce actual laws & fight actual crimes. Freedom of speech must be protected and a proportionate approach must be taken. 1/2




    The public need to have confidence in their police forces.

    This sort of thing undermines it.

    Senior police officers who allow this to happen can expect to have to explain to me why they’re spending vital resources on politically correct campaigns.
    2/2


    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1581618197585100800

    Possibly related:

    Chief Constable Simon Cole , said:“Leicestershire Police is thrilled to have made the Stonewall top 100 employer list .

    https://tinyurl.com/248njnpa

    Why get rid of Patel? Braverman is very similar, but less disciplined and experienced, keeps freelancing on policy, and doesn't understand collective cabinet responsibility. However, it is the same pattern of tough rhetoric, but no action. It makes them look powerless and stupid. Even though I am positive about their attempts to deal with the 'woke' problems in the police and public sector, this was a bad example to highlight, because it suggests that it is ok to bully trans people.
    Last month Sussex Police got it in the neck, when their Twitter dweeb took offence and suggested criminal liability for people pointing out that the "woman" (without a GRC) convicted of sexual assaults had been a man when the offences were committed:

    1) .@Sussex_police have done well to put a dangerous criminal behind bars. But they’ve got it wrong by playing identity politics and denying biology. Focus on catching criminals not policing pronouns.......

    2) I acknowledge and thank @sussex_police for their swift apology & retraction.
    The best police officers focus on solving crimes and supporting victims. Not political correctness. #commonsensepolicing


    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1574790338501349384
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    Leon said:

    If I wasn’t speeding through rural Colorado I would find my first comments where I suggested Putin was going to invade Ukraine, again, from Belarus, and half of you laughed at me

    He's just trying to pull Ukr troops away from Kherson in order to reduce the pressure there imho.

    They failed last time from Belarus and the Ru military is in far more degraded state.
    It might be that. But it also serves as a dead cat to take attention away from the impending loss of Kherson that has been fairly widely trailed in the last 48hrs, including by British intelligence.


  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Andy_JS said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Who should replace her?
    Kemi Penny Rishi Hunt in that order. A good reason to keep the membership away from the decision.
    You never seem to tire of insulting the Tory membership.
    Oh, is "doubly incontinent zimmer frame drivers" offensive? I had no idea.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Prices have been rising in Tesco for months now. I originally thought it was to pay for the high security turnstyles they seem to have installed.
    Showing away with a pecan nut requirement though!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,126
    Eabhal said:

    @DavidL ,
    it's been a stunning weekend in the NW

    WOW.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,910
    ...
    ihunt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    Is it really surprising the globalist corporatist Biden administration and the EU and IMF despise post Brexit UK and anyone who thinks outside the neoliberal group think? However it is not just the UK which has seen revolts against what conspiracy theorists would call this New World Order agenda, see Italy with Meloni, Greece with Syriza, France with Le Pen and Melonchon and indeed the US with Trump?
    What a soft fascist dunce you are.

    Greece and Italy have never been seen as serious countries. Trump is (for now) in abeyance, and Le Pen has failed to win the Presidency on several occasions, despite your attempts to pretend otherwise.

    Italy is in the G7 and has a nationalist right government, Trump leads some 2024 polls again, Le Pen and Melenchon and the various other left parties combined now have more seats than the neoliberal Macron in the French Parliament. In the UK we voted for Brexit and Boris and very nearly voted for Corbyn in 2017.

    If the globalist neoliberal order thinks the populations of western democracies are just going to take ever higher taxes, ever deeper austerity and uncontrolled immigration, then the ballot box will increasingly prove otherwise!
    article in the telegraph today says we are turning into Italy...i think that is true...the Uks future is as a chaotic country in decline with politics becoming increasingly crazy....
    Do we also get the sun, hot chicks* and fast sports cars as a trade off?

    * I'll take the off-topic for that!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    And the motion is carried overwhelmingly.

    The Scottish Greens conference has voted to suspend the formal association with the Green Party of England and Wales until the latter solves issues with transphobia.


    https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1581674122698162176
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,126
    Chameleon said:

    TimS said:

    Chameleon said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    Who says they'd go for Kyiv again (outside of a small feint meant to fix the sizeable Kyiv defence)?

    It would make far more sense to make a lunge towards Rivne then Ternopil (both about 200k population) to cut off Ukraine from Western support like weapons supplies and maintenance depots in Poland. Both West to east railway connections would be severed (or severely limited if within Russian artillery's range. In addition there's a railway line straight south from Belarus to Rivne that they can use to supply themselves, which the Kyiv attack did not have in the spring.
    My resident Ukrainian is from Ternopil. Going back there at Christmas. I think that ara would be extremely difficult for Russia. Much further from the frontier than Kiev, through wooded and rolling country. Ukraine can easily blow a railway.
    Yeah there's definitely issues, but if I were a Russian general and had to pick something it's definitely the one I'd go for.

    As long as Russian troops can push on the other three fronts, and keep a fixing force over the border from Kyiv Ukraine's defences will be very stretched in the West. In addition to get the Ternopil railway into Russian artillery range they'd only need to advance 20 miles south of Rivne, which is close enough they should be able to consistently supply the effort.

    From a Ukrainian PoV I'd be reassured by the large front lines Russia would have the defend, the extremely low quality of the Russian mobiks and Belarusian regulars, and the complete inability of Russia to provide adequate training and winter wear for the months ahead.

    It's Russia's best option for a game changer, but given they'd have to maintain the effort for a long while for it to cause collapse in the East I still don't think it is a good option.
    Far more likely to cause the collapse of Belarus.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Wallace now asking the plotting to stop - I don’t see how he thinks people can unite around Truss.

    He has to say it, so do all cabinet members and contenders for next cabinet. I still think she will be gone by beginning of next year.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    NEW via @joepike

    Liz Truss’s chief of staff has recused himself from any government decisions relating to Libya *and* tobacco in the space of 24 hours

    Mark Fullbrook has been told to quit by Labour as more revelations of his lobbying history emerge:

    https://news.sky.com/story/liz-trusss-chief-of-staff-recuses-himself-from-government-smoking-strategy-due-to-big-tobacco-links-12722194
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,651
    HYUFD said:

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    Is it really surprising the globalist corporatist Biden administration and the EU and IMF despise post Brexit UK and anyone who thinks outside the neoliberal group think? However it is not just the UK which has seen revolts against what conspiracy theorists would call this New World Order agenda, see Italy with Meloni, Greece with Syriza, France with Le Pen and Melonchon and indeed the US with Trump.

    Indeed one thing Sanders and Trump supporters and the hard left and nationalist right share is they despise the IMF and the neoliberal globalist order
    When you say "neoliberal globalist order", do you mean "people who think that expenditure should be covered by revenue"?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited October 2022

    This week I have seen confusion amongst police forces about what constitutes a ‘hate crime’.

    The police need to enforce actual laws & fight actual crimes. Freedom of speech must be protected and a proportionate approach must be taken. 1/2




    The public need to have confidence in their police forces.

    This sort of thing undermines it.

    Senior police officers who allow this to happen can expect to have to explain to me why they’re spending vital resources on politically correct campaigns.
    2/2


    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1581618197585100800

    Possibly related:

    Chief Constable Simon Cole , said:“Leicestershire Police is thrilled to have made the Stonewall top 100 employer list .

    https://tinyurl.com/248njnpa

    The UK jumped that shark ages ago.

    Although, Jane has every right to expect civil treatment and I’ve no objection especially to Leics police highlighting offensive behaviour.

    I actually would object to such a specific example (rather than a general entreaty not to be a dick and treat people, including Jane, discourteously) - because when people see the police highlighting offensive behaviour in that way they may get the impression said offensiveness is also illegal behaviour.

    That has been a problem the police themselves engage in, thinking for example that guidance they have issued (or government has issued) is law. If they are seemingly policing things, people assume they have a right or even obligation to police it.

    Its the same reason people in authority have to be clear about the capacity in which they make comments, or what they comment upon, because it can cause confusion as to what is their responsibility.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    If I wasn’t speeding through rural Colorado I would find my first comments where I suggested Putin was going to invade Ukraine, again, from Belarus, and half of you laughed at me

    No. We were laughing at you suggesting Liz Truss would surprise on the upside. Easy mistake to make.
    At some point I’m gonna find the original exchanges re Belarus. I suspect they will be richly entertaining

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    🔵 When an MP was asked for their reaction to the day’s events, they simply replied with the message: “I’ve put my letter in.”

    Other MPs are understood to have sent letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1581689155330842624
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    And the motion is carried overwhelmingly.

    The Scottish Greens conference has voted to suspend the formal association with the Green Party of England and Wales until the latter solves issues with transphobia.


    https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1581674122698162176

    Shades of Calvanism?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    “Russian channel Older than Edda: Reports of the transfer of "Daggers" (KH-47M2 Kinzhal missiles) to Belarus

    Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is a Russian hypersonic aero-ballistic air-to-surface missile.”

    Needs a pinch of SALT. But a straw in the wind

    https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1581680023269912576?s=46&t=eMyqCZ0Cz8-beA0onaoyFQ
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Prices have been rising in Tesco for months now. I originally thought it was to pay for the high security turnstyles they seem to have installed.
    Is that London? Nothing like that around me.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    How does the chief of staff recuse himself from *any* aspect of government policy, and, perhaps more importantly, how does the public judge whether or not he has?
    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1581691072358797312
    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1581689573327134725
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    And the motion is carried overwhelmingly.

    The Scottish Greens conference has voted to suspend the formal association with the Green Party of England and Wales until the latter solves issues with transphobia.


    https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1581674122698162176

    Rather clever for the motion to have multiple reasons for the suspension, which may have helped some back it even if they didn't agree with each individual reason.

    to suspend ties with the Green Party of England and Wales over transphobia and a lack of respect for the devolution settlement
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,910
    ...
    Scott_xP said:

    How does the chief of staff recuse himself from *any* aspect of government policy, and, perhaps more importantly, how does the public judge whether or not he has?
    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1581691072358797312
    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1581689573327134725

    They really don't give a ****, do they? They have even stopped pretending.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    This week I have seen confusion amongst police forces about what constitutes a ‘hate crime’.

    The police need to enforce actual laws & fight actual crimes. Freedom of speech must be protected and a proportionate approach must be taken. 1/2




    The public need to have confidence in their police forces.

    This sort of thing undermines it.

    Senior police officers who allow this to happen can expect to have to explain to me why they’re spending vital resources on politically correct campaigns.
    2/2


    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1581618197585100800

    Possibly related:

    Chief Constable Simon Cole , said:“Leicestershire Police is thrilled to have made the Stonewall top 100 employer list .

    https://tinyurl.com/248njnpa

    The UK jumped that shark ages ago.

    Although, Jane has every right to expect civil treatment and I’ve no objection especially to Leics police highlighting offensive behaviour.

    I actually would object to such a specific example (rather than a general entreaty not to be a dick and treat people, including Jane, discourteously) - because when people see the police highlighting offensive behaviour in that way they may get the impression said offensiveness is also illegal behaviour.

    That has been a problem the police themselves engage in, thinking for example that guidance they have issued (or government has issued) is law. If they are seemingly policing things, people assume they have a right or even obligation to police it.

    Its the same reason people in authority have to be clear about the capacity in which they make comments, or what they comment upon, because it can cause confusion as to what is their responsibility.
    I had meant to add that while it is correct that 'X has ever right to expect civil treatment', what no one has is the 'right to expect the police to enforce civil treatment' other than in rare occasions when it goes some way beyond being merely uncivil.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,318
    Woke watchers will be interested to hear that at a parent dinner on Friday night one of the mothers shared that she now has to not only append her pronouns to her corporate signature, she also has to note that she resides on land originally settled by the Lenape people (ie Manhattan).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    “Russian MiG-31 jet prepares to join the regional grouping force in Belarus”

    https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1581691229678411776?s=46&t=3Z0LIUS98jbqyswTqNGKig
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW via @joepike

    Liz Truss’s chief of staff has recused himself from any government decisions relating to Libya *and* tobacco in the space of 24 hours

    Mark Fullbrook has been told to quit by Labour as more revelations of his lobbying history emerge:

    https://news.sky.com/story/liz-trusss-chief-of-staff-recuses-himself-from-government-smoking-strategy-due-to-big-tobacco-links-12722194

    In what world was he a sensible choice for chief of staff anyway? His background is lobbying and campaigning. Suggests Truss thinks governing is a peformative art.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    Is it really surprising the globalist corporatist Biden administration and the EU and IMF despise post Brexit UK and anyone who thinks outside the neoliberal group think? However it is not just the UK which has seen revolts against what conspiracy theorists would call this New World Order agenda, see Italy with Meloni, Greece with Syriza, France with Le Pen and Melonchon and indeed the US with Trump.

    Indeed one thing Sanders and Trump supporters and the hard left and nationalist right share is they despise the IMF and the neoliberal globalist order
    When you say "neoliberal globalist order", do you mean "people who think that expenditure should be covered by revenue"?

    i think he means the primacy of financial capital and asset price inflation over the conditions for ordinary people on the ground
  • Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Funnily enough apples (France) and tomatoes (Morocco) were decently priced.

    It’s cheaper to do a weekly shop in M&S. Seriously. Half a dozen eggs are £1. Butter (proper stuff, none of this Lurpak rubbish) is £1.70

    Currently doing a full weekly shop for household of four for £120. Cereals are cheaper. Baking ingredients are cheaper. Household supplies are cheaper (M&S washing up liquid is 70p and you get 50% more than Fairy). Bag of six (thin) sirloins are £15. Great for a stir fry. Baked beans are 30p a tin.

    Average saving each week for us is £52 (according to a spreadsheet I created).

    Green credentials are boosted too. We’re throwing out less. Wastage is massively down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Cicero said:

    Chameleon said:

    TimS said:

    Chameleon said:

    It begins to look like the attempt to seize Kyiv, by invading from Belarus, will be renewed. I was confident that it wouldn't, but, well, wrong again most likely.

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1581628973401853952

    If the first time was a tragedy for the people of Bucha and Borodyanka, this will surely turn into a farce for the Russian and Belarusian armies. They lost last time, and this time they have stacked against them additional factors:

    1. The Ukrainians are mobilised and not caught by surprise.
    2. The Ukrainians have a heap of additional equipment from the West.
    3. The Russians have lost their best troops and gear.

    I really can't make any sense of it. I thought the Russian's best hope was to reinforce their lines in the south, and hope that the winter is cold enough to force Europe to come to terms. They actually seem to think they can still win the war.

    Who says they'd go for Kyiv again (outside of a small feint meant to fix the sizeable Kyiv defence)?

    It would make far more sense to make a lunge towards Rivne then Ternopil (both about 200k population) to cut off Ukraine from Western support like weapons supplies and maintenance depots in Poland. Both West to east railway connections would be severed (or severely limited if within Russian artillery's range. In addition there's a railway line straight south from Belarus to Rivne that they can use to supply themselves, which the Kyiv attack did not have in the spring.
    My resident Ukrainian is from Ternopil. Going back there at Christmas. I think that ara would be extremely difficult for Russia. Much further from the frontier than Kiev, through wooded and rolling country. Ukraine can easily blow a railway.
    Yeah there's definitely issues, but if I were a Russian general and had to pick something it's definitely the one I'd go for.

    As long as Russian troops can push on the other three fronts, and keep a fixing force over the border from Kyiv Ukraine's defences will be very stretched in the West. In addition to get the Ternopil railway into Russian artillery range they'd only need to advance 20 miles south of Rivne, which is close enough they should be able to consistently supply the effort.

    From a Ukrainian PoV I'd be reassured by the large front lines Russia would have the defend, the extremely low quality of the Russian mobiks and Belarusian regulars, and the complete inability of Russia to provide adequate training and winter wear for the months ahead.

    It's Russia's best option for a game changer, but given they'd have to maintain the effort for a long while for it to cause collapse in the East I still don't think it is a good option.
    Far more likely to cause the collapse of Belarus.
    If we could all be so lucky.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,956

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    Is it really surprising the globalist corporatist Biden administration and the EU and IMF despise post Brexit UK and anyone who thinks outside the neoliberal group think? However it is not just the UK which has seen revolts against what conspiracy theorists would call this New World Order agenda, see Italy with Meloni, Greece with Syriza, France with Le Pen and Melonchon and indeed the US with Trump?
    What a soft fascist dunce you are.

    Greece and Italy have never been seen as serious countries. Trump is (for now) in abeyance, and Le Pen has failed to win the Presidency on several occasions, despite your attempts to pretend otherwise.

    Italy is in the G7 and has a nationalist right government, Trump leads some 2024 polls again, Le Pen and Melenchon and the various other left parties combined now have more seats than the neoliberal Macron in the French Parliament. In the UK we voted for Brexit and Boris and very nearly voted for Corbyn in 2017.

    If the globalist neoliberal order thinks the populations of western democracies are just going to take ever higher taxes, ever deeper austerity and uncontrolled immigration, then the ballot box will increasingly prove otherwise!
    Neoliberals want higher taxes? Are you sure about that?
    On ordinary voters, less so themselves
    The problem in this country is that a lot of voters want everyone wealthier than themselves to pay higher taxes so that they can have more money. But they want the level at which higher taxes are levied to conveniently stop just above themselves. One reason why Truss and Kwarteng were so unpopular is probably because they refused to go along with this way of thinking.
    You reckon?
    What do you reckon on the subject?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,300

    And the motion is carried overwhelmingly.

    The Scottish Greens conference has voted to suspend the formal association with the Green Party of England and Wales until the latter solves issues with transphobia.


    https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1581674122698162176

    Nicola Sturgeon vs JK Rowling might end up being the most important battle line in British politics.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,318
    ihunt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    Is it really surprising the globalist corporatist Biden administration and the EU and IMF despise post Brexit UK and anyone who thinks outside the neoliberal group think? However it is not just the UK which has seen revolts against what conspiracy theorists would call this New World Order agenda, see Italy with Meloni, Greece with Syriza, France with Le Pen and Melonchon and indeed the US with Trump.

    Indeed one thing Sanders and Trump supporters and the hard left and nationalist right share is they despise the IMF and the neoliberal globalist order
    When you say "neoliberal globalist order", do you mean "people who think that expenditure should be covered by revenue"?

    i think he means the primacy of financial capital and asset price inflation over the conditions for ordinary people on the ground
    So, core Tory policy, then.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146

    ihunt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    Is it really surprising the globalist corporatist Biden administration and the EU and IMF despise post Brexit UK and anyone who thinks outside the neoliberal group think? However it is not just the UK which has seen revolts against what conspiracy theorists would call this New World Order agenda, see Italy with Meloni, Greece with Syriza, France with Le Pen and Melonchon and indeed the US with Trump.

    Indeed one thing Sanders and Trump supporters and the hard left and nationalist right share is they despise the IMF and the neoliberal globalist order
    When you say "neoliberal globalist order", do you mean "people who think that expenditure should be covered by revenue"?

    i think he means the primacy of financial capital and asset price inflation over the conditions for ordinary people on the ground
    So, core Tory policy, then.
    exactly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Funnily enough apples (France) and tomatoes (Morocco) were decently priced.

    It’s cheaper to do a weekly shop in M&S. Seriously. Half a dozen eggs are £1. Butter (proper stuff, none of this Lurpak rubbish) is £1.70

    Currently doing a full weekly shop for household of four for £120. Cereals are cheaper. Baking ingredients are cheaper. Household supplies are cheaper (M&S washing up liquid is 70p and you get 50% more than Fairy). Bag of six (thin) sirloins are £15. Great for a stir fry. Baked beans are 30p a tin.

    Average saving each week for us is £52 (according to a spreadsheet I created).

    Green credentials are boosted too. We’re throwing out less. Wastage is massively down.
    Rather a positive message on getting through the cost of living crisis for someone who has abandoned hope.

    I went round a shop the other day and picked up a few random bits, and one full bag of stuff came to £50 - I need to pay more attention (the joint of lamb did not help, to be sure).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,862
    ...

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Funnily enough apples (France) and tomatoes (Morocco) were decently priced.

    Apples are in season. There's really no need to buy French apples in season - British ones are cheap and of much better quality.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited October 2022

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Who should replace her?
    Kemi Penny Rishi Hunt in that order. A good reason to keep the membership away from the decision.
    It may just have been meaningless campaign rhetoric, but Kemi did give the impression she wanted genuine cabinet government including all wings of the party. If she had the backing of heavyweights like Hunt, Rishi and Penny, it could work.
    Hope springs eternal . . .
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    this from Isabel Oakeshott..apparently Liz Truss keeps changing her mobile number and is seriously depressed

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681?s=20&t=rv0UOq_j4u9fnZKxGOuShQ
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    And the motion is carried overwhelmingly.

    The Scottish Greens conference has voted to suspend the formal association with the Green Party of England and Wales until the latter solves issues with transphobia.


    https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1581674122698162176

    Nicola Sturgeon vs JK Rowling might end up being the most important battle line in British politics.
    That would imply that the Tory Party and its leadership, the need to complete or abolish Brexit, the deficit, and the taxation of the working to pamper Tory-voting pensioners, are all resolved.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    apparently some cabinet ministers can no longer contact Truss
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,318
    edited October 2022
    ihunt said:

    apparently some cabinet ministers can no longer contact Truss

    It’s Sunday. Maybe she is taking a breather.
  • ihunt said:

    also the first failed attempt on Kyiv was in mud season when Putins tanks got bogged down...so i think this time Putin will wait for freezing conditions to start in November

    Smart kid that Putin. He's noticed it gets icy in winter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    ihunt said:

    also the first failed attempt on Kyiv was in mud season when Putins tanks got bogged down...so i think this time Putin will wait for freezing conditions to start in November

    Smart kid that Putin. He's noticed it gets icy in winter.
    When it never gets cold in your dacha he may have forgotten.
  • Scott_xP said:

    NEW via @joepike

    Liz Truss’s chief of staff has recused himself from any government decisions relating to Libya *and* tobacco in the space of 24 hours

    Mark Fullbrook has been told to quit by Labour as more revelations of his lobbying history emerge:

    https://news.sky.com/story/liz-trusss-chief-of-staff-recuses-himself-from-government-smoking-strategy-due-to-big-tobacco-links-12722194

    COULD it be, that one reason (besides getting the Conservative campaign account for next GE) that Fullbrook is clinging to his job, is that he believes he stands to be indicted by US authorities as soon as he is NOT working for PM? With reference to his alleged role in Puerto Rico 2020 official bribery & illegal campaign contribution scandal.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Funnily enough apples (France) and tomatoes (Morocco) were decently priced.

    It’s cheaper to do a weekly shop in M&S. Seriously. Half a dozen eggs are £1. Butter (proper stuff, none of this Lurpak rubbish) is £1.70

    Currently doing a full weekly shop for household of four for £120. Cereals are cheaper. Baking ingredients are cheaper. Household supplies are cheaper (M&S washing up liquid is 70p and you get 50% more than Fairy). Bag of six (thin) sirloins are £15. Great for a stir fry. Baked beans are 30p a tin.

    Average saving each week for us is £52 (according to a spreadsheet I created).

    Green credentials are boosted too. We’re throwing out less. Wastage is massively down.
    Welcome to PB Mr hope.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,862
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    Is it really surprising the globalist corporatist Biden administration and the EU and IMF despise post Brexit UK and anyone who thinks outside the neoliberal group think? However it is not just the UK which has seen revolts against what conspiracy theorists would call this New World Order agenda, see Italy with Meloni, Greece with Syriza, France with Le Pen and Melonchon and indeed the US with Trump.

    Indeed one thing Sanders and Trump supporters and the hard left and nationalist right share is they despise the IMF and the neoliberal globalist order
    When you say "neoliberal globalist order", do you mean "people who think that expenditure should be covered by revenue"?

    I think HY is misapplying the 'neo' - the 'liberal world order' (a somewhat imaginative use of the word liberal), or the more long winded 'rules based international order' seem to be the phrases du jour for what was once called the 'new world order' but developed an understandable image problem.

    I myself like expenditure to be covered by revenue, but I don't like the fact that central banks have been printing money and keeping interest rates low like it's been going out of fashion, and have now developed such a rapid taste for balancing the books and raising interest rates when the world economy is facing almost unprecedented headwinds.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW via @joepike

    Liz Truss’s chief of staff has recused himself from any government decisions relating to Libya *and* tobacco in the space of 24 hours

    Mark Fullbrook has been told to quit by Labour as more revelations of his lobbying history emerge:

    https://news.sky.com/story/liz-trusss-chief-of-staff-recuses-himself-from-government-smoking-strategy-due-to-big-tobacco-links-12722194

    COULD it be, that one reason (besides getting the Conservative campaign account for next GE) that Fullbrook is clinging to his job, is that he believes he stands to be indicted by US authorities as soon as he is NOT working for PM? With reference to his alleged role in Puerto Rico 2020 official bribery & illegal campaign contribution scandal.
    There are certainly a growing number of people for whom the Truss administration will be their last big job in politics.

    Truss of course is top of that list...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,771
    edited October 2022
    Ed and George on the Andrew Neil show.
    Eddy George (anyone remember?) would have been better.

    eta George is quite good actually
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    📉 21 per cent of you were right!

    October for sunak-supporter Andrew Bridgen to call for a new PM…

    Roger Gale will be livid he’s been outflanked.

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1566004024767381504 https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1581695930793078784/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    Wouldn't it be more newsworthy, highly surprising even, if Bridgen called for a Tory leader to stay? https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1581693339027374080
  • kle4 said:

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Funnily enough apples (France) and tomatoes (Morocco) were decently priced.

    It’s cheaper to do a weekly shop in M&S. Seriously. Half a dozen eggs are £1. Butter (proper stuff, none of this Lurpak rubbish) is £1.70

    Currently doing a full weekly shop for household of four for £120. Cereals are cheaper. Baking ingredients are cheaper. Household supplies are cheaper (M&S washing up liquid is 70p and you get 50% more than Fairy). Bag of six (thin) sirloins are £15. Great for a stir fry. Baked beans are 30p a tin.

    Average saving each week for us is £52 (according to a spreadsheet I created).

    Green credentials are boosted too. We’re throwing out less. Wastage is massively down.
    Rather a positive message on getting through the cost of living crisis for someone who has abandoned hope.

    I went round a shop the other day and picked up a few random bits, and one full bag of stuff came to £50 - I need to pay more attention (the joint of lamb did not help, to be sure).
    Quite. It’s one of those situations where if you’re sensible, are not tied to ‘brands’ and don’t mind paying a little bit more for some Items, you’ll end up paying a lot less overall.

    FYI leg of lamb is £23 approx.

    Nip online and have a look at Ocado. Use the filter and choose the M&S brand. You can usually knock 10p off the Ocado price to get the in-store price.

    For what it’s worth, have given up telling friends/neighbours/relatives it’s cheaper - they don’t believe it.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Truss back to 1.76 (layable) to go in 2022. Tempted to bet against that again. Time is very short, and if she did go in that time frame then Hunt might be in pole position.

    My main doubt about a 2022 exit is that Truss might make a deal to step down in the new year in exchange for spending one Christmas at Chequers. On balance, I think she will go sooner rather than later, and that is the way my book is tilted, but such an arrangement would not surprise me.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Hancock showing a bit of ankle to Liz. hopeless.
  • Woke watchers will be interested to hear that at a parent dinner on Friday night one of the mothers shared that she now has to not only append her pronouns to her corporate signature, she also has to note that she resides on land originally settled by the Lenape people (ie Manhattan).

    What the hell does saying "she also has to note that she resides on land originally settled by the Lenape people (ie Manhattan)." actually achieve....
  • Lest we forget the REAL menace . . .

    Seattle Times ($) - An Eastern WA man records 180,000 UFO sightings, even if others debunk them

    HARRINGTON, Lincoln County — Come with me on a trip into UFO land, with the believers, the skeptics — and a guy like me.

    I have never seen a UFO, but I write feature stories, and when you write feature stories, you inevitably veer off into the unconventional.

    In many ways, a modest manufactured home here in Harrington is Ground Zero for UFO enthusiasts. This is where tens of thousands of sighting reports are carefully cataloged into a computer.

    This town of 430, an hour’s drive west of Spokane, surrounded by rolling acres of wheat fields, is the home of Peter Davenport, 74.

    Seven days a week, in a one-man operation (except for a webmaster), he runs the National UFO Reporting Center. This is his 28th year.

    “Giving up? Every day I think that,” he says.

    He estimates he’s meticulously logged 180,000 reports since he took over the site in 1994 from the late Bob Gribble, a Seattle firefighter with a fascination for UFOs. And they just keep coming.

    Then Davenport explains why he keeps going. “This is probably the most important scientific question ever to confront mankind. Are we alone in this galaxy, or are we not? In my opinion, we are not alone. We are visited on a routine basis by these things we call UFOs.”

    THE REPORTS HAVE that look of just-the-facts: date, place, what was observed (although what was observed is sometimes very strange).

    Davenport’s site is referenced in stories that have run in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. It is his site that the Federal Aviation Administration recommends for reporting UFOs.

    He has never married, has no children, so his time is all his own.

    For June 2022, for example, he logged 267 reports, most from the United States, and a few international ones . . .

    n July, a report proclaimed Washington the No. 1 state in the country for UFO sightings, according to a compilation done by the online jigsaw puzzle site im-a-puzzle.com. It was based on two years of UFO reports from Davenport’s site, ending in December 2021. Washington reported 88.03 sightings per 100,000 residents, about twice the national average of 44.95.

    The Pacific Northwest has a long history with UFOs.

    The term “flying saucers” was born here 75 years ago.

    On June 24, 1947, Kenneth Arnold, a businessman and an experienced pilot flying a single-engine plane, reported seeing nine flying shiny objects weaving and banking at astounding speeds by Mount Rainier. . . .

    SSI - much more, story is quite balanced.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW via @joepike

    Liz Truss’s chief of staff has recused himself from any government decisions relating to Libya *and* tobacco in the space of 24 hours

    Mark Fullbrook has been told to quit by Labour as more revelations of his lobbying history emerge:

    https://news.sky.com/story/liz-trusss-chief-of-staff-recuses-himself-from-government-smoking-strategy-due-to-big-tobacco-links-12722194

    COULD it be, that one reason (besides getting the Conservative campaign account for next GE) that Fullbrook is clinging to his job, is that he believes he stands to be indicted by US authorities as soon as he is NOT working for PM? With reference to his alleged role in Puerto Rico 2020 official bribery & illegal campaign contribution scandal.
    There are certainly a growing number of people for whom the Truss administration will be their last big job in politics.

    Truss of course is top of that list...
    How many do you reckon are also on DOJ-FBI radar screen?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Prices have been rising in Tesco for months now. I originally thought it was to pay for the high security turnstyles they seem to have installed.
    Is that London? Nothing like that around me.
    No, Pembs
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944

    Got to say I was quite shocked going to Tesco this afternoon. Butter up from about £2.20 to £2.70. Eggs gone from £2.10 to £3.00. £5 for some pecan nuts. Prices do seem very volatile at the minute perhaps they'll settle down a little.

    Prices have been rising in Tesco for months now. I originally thought it was to pay for the high security turnstyles they seem to have installed.
    Is that London? Nothing like that around me.
    No, Pembs
    Next time i'm in I'll take a snap.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,910
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm writing this from the Amtrak lounge at Union Station in Washington DC as I wait for my Acela train to New York. The following represents a few thoughts from the Annual Meetings of the IMF and associated fringe events organised by the major banks and bilateral meetings with officials and market participants. I'm going to focus on the bits relevant to the UK although of course this represents just a fraction of the discussions.
    First, when you have become the joke, you have a problem. I lost count of the number of times the British situation was remarked on wryly or was just openly mocked. It's nice to be able to put a smile on people's faces, but as a Brit I found it distinctly uncomfortable.
    Second, Britain needs friends. The US has been angered by the way that UK government incompetence has destabilised global markets, and has been very happy to air that frustration publicly. The Europeans have their own club, which we left. There wasn't much love in the room for the UK, anywhere.
    Third, there was open discussion of whether the UK might end up at the IMF. Mostly this was aired in an ironic tone, but I also heard quite serious players claim that it was likely.
    Last, when the UK wasn't being criticised or mocked it was entirely absent from the discussions. UK officials and policymakers aren't treated seriously. The UK's views and interests are absent in the big discussions. Global Britain is a distant aspiration.
    Feel free to dismiss as the ramblings of a bitter Remoaner member of the globalist blob if you like. But I am travelling on to New York in a rather depressed state at how low the stock of our country has fallen in global forums.

    Is it really surprising the globalist corporatist Biden administration and the EU and IMF despise post Brexit UK and anyone who thinks outside the neoliberal group think? However it is not just the UK which has seen revolts against what conspiracy theorists would call this New World Order agenda, see Italy with Meloni, Greece with Syriza, France with Le Pen and Melonchon and indeed the US with Trump?
    What a soft fascist dunce you are.

    Greece and Italy have never been seen as serious countries. Trump is (for now) in abeyance, and Le Pen has failed to win the Presidency on several occasions, despite your attempts to pretend otherwise.

    Italy is in the G7 and has a nationalist right government, Trump leads some 2024 polls again, Le Pen and Melenchon and the various other left parties combined now have more seats than the neoliberal Macron in the French Parliament. In the UK we voted for Brexit and Boris and very nearly voted for Corbyn in 2017.

    If the globalist neoliberal order thinks the populations of western democracies are just going to take ever higher taxes, ever deeper austerity and uncontrolled immigration, then the ballot box will increasingly prove otherwise!
    Neoliberals want higher taxes? Are you sure about that?
    On ordinary voters, less so themselves
    The problem in this country is that a lot of voters want everyone wealthier than themselves to pay higher taxes so that they can have more money. But they want the level at which higher taxes are levied to conveniently stop just above themselves. One reason why Truss and Kwarteng were so unpopular is probably because they refused to go along with this way of thinking.
    You reckon?
    What do you reckon on the subject?
    I was with you all the way to the full stop after your second "themselves".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    And the motion is carried overwhelmingly.

    The Scottish Greens conference has voted to suspend the formal association with the Green Party of England and Wales until the latter solves issues with transphobia.


    https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1581674122698162176

    Shades of Calvanism?
    Yes, in a sense.

    A man explaining women’s rights to women.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,899
    ihunt said:

    this from Isabel Oakeshott..apparently Liz Truss keeps changing her mobile number and is seriously depressed

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681?s=20&t=rv0UOq_j4u9fnZKxGOuShQ

    It's impossible not to feel a twinge of sympathy for Liz Truss. She will go down in history as the worst British politician of all time. Political science conferences in future years will be devoted to the study of how anyone could be this disastrously bad at politics. Her premiership will likely be so short that book chapters will detail her failings on a minute by minute timeline. And she's not even bad at politics in the kind of hapless harmless way where one day the public will warm to her and people will pay money to hear her self-deprecating raconteurish accounts of the unfolding disaster. Can you imagine being in her shoes now?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW via @joepike

    Liz Truss’s chief of staff has recused himself from any government decisions relating to Libya *and* tobacco in the space of 24 hours

    Mark Fullbrook has been told to quit by Labour as more revelations of his lobbying history emerge:

    https://news.sky.com/story/liz-trusss-chief-of-staff-recuses-himself-from-government-smoking-strategy-due-to-big-tobacco-links-12722194

    COULD it be, that one reason (besides getting the Conservative campaign account for next GE) that Fullbrook is clinging to his job, is that he believes he stands to be indicted by US authorities as soon as he is NOT working for PM? With reference to his alleged role in Puerto Rico 2020 official bribery & illegal campaign contribution scandal.
    There are certainly a growing number of people for whom the Truss administration will be their last big job in politics.

    Truss of course is top of that list...
    How many do you reckon are also on DOJ-FBI radar screen?
    No idea, but very few of Truss' cabinet will ever be ministers again
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    And the motion is carried overwhelmingly.

    The Scottish Greens conference has voted to suspend the formal association with the Green Party of England and Wales until the latter solves issues with transphobia.


    https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1581674122698162176

    Nicola Sturgeon vs JK Rowling might end up being the most important battle line in British politics.
    They’re the only ones actually fighting over ideas….
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    Have we done this one yet?

    Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

    NO: 49% (+4)
    YES: 46% (+1)
    Don't Know: 5% (=)

    Don't knows Excluded:

    NO: 52% (+2)
    YES: 48% (-2)

    Via @PanelbaseMD, On 7-10 October,
    Changes w/ 5-7 October.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    ihunt said:

    this from Isabel Oakeshott..apparently Liz Truss keeps changing her mobile number and is seriously depressed

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681?s=20&t=rv0UOq_j4u9fnZKxGOuShQ

    I wonder if His Majesty might consider giving her a call. He knows a thing or two about public humiliation let's not forget.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    ihunt said:

    this from Isabel Oakeshott..apparently Liz Truss keeps changing her mobile number and is seriously depressed

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681?s=20&t=rv0UOq_j4u9fnZKxGOuShQ

    I wonder if His Majesty might consider giving her a call. He knows a thing or two about public humiliation let's not forget.
    He's tried but... 'number unobtainable'.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,187

    ihunt said:

    this from Isabel Oakeshott..apparently Liz Truss keeps changing her mobile number and is seriously depressed

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681?s=20&t=rv0UOq_j4u9fnZKxGOuShQ

    It's impossible not to feel a twinge of sympathy for Liz Truss. She will go down in history as the worst British politician of all time. Political science conferences in future years will be devoted to the study of how anyone could be this disastrously bad at politics. Her premiership will likely be so short that book chapters will detail her failings on a minute by minute timeline. And she's not even bad at politics in the kind of hapless harmless way where one day the public will warm to her and people will pay money to hear her self-deprecating raconteurish accounts of the unfolding disaster. Can you imagine being in her shoes now?
    It will be a short conference and a pamphlet rather than a book. She pandered to a closed electorate, promised them the Earth and got a job way beyond her competence in which she decided to try Dinner Table politics as an alternative to creating robust policy.

    She and her cronies are living breathing example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect - their own incompetence and lack of experience misleads them into believing they are political giants.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    And the motion is carried overwhelmingly.

    The Scottish Greens conference has voted to suspend the formal association with the Green Party of England and Wales until the latter solves issues with transphobia.


    https://twitter.com/EuanYours/status/1581674122698162176

    Nicola Sturgeon vs JK Rowling might end up being the most important battle line in British politics.
    They’re the only ones actually fighting over ideas….
    The sunlit uplands of Brexit wasn't an idea?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,141
    Leon said:

    “Russian MiG-31 jet prepares to join the regional grouping force in Belarus”

    https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1581691229678411776?s=46&t=3Z0LIUS98jbqyswTqNGKig

    Mig-31 is an air defence jet. With a very primitive air to ground capability.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    edited October 2022
    ihunt said:

    this from Isabel Oakeshott..apparently Liz Truss keeps changing her mobile number and is seriously depressed

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681?s=20&t=rv0UOq_j4u9fnZKxGOuShQ

    Understandable TBH. The impact of all of this to Truss is going to be significant and unless she is made of exceptionally strong stuff (and I fear she isn't), this is really going to hurt.

    Imagine being a politician and getting the top job - the job you've dreamed about for years, all the things you would do. OK, so you've come in mid way through a parliament, but you have a good couple of years to stamp your mark, yours might not be the longest tenure but you might lead your party to victory and even if you don't you've had a bit of time to make a decent fist of it.

    But no, everything has turned to dust within weeks. That dream, that vision you had has just crumbled around you. You're going to be turfed out of office for one big unforced error, and you will be the shortest serving Prime Minister of all time. Your reputation in tatters. Very unpopular with the GBP. A figure of pity, or even of ridicule.

    On a human level it is absolutely devastating for Truss. She needs a strong support network for the days and months ahead. I hope in time she is able to come to terms with it, but it won't be easy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    A third MP publicly calls for Liz Truss to go https://twitter.com/JamieWallisMP/status/1581700889102123009
This discussion has been closed.