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Memo to the Tories: Look stupid, it’s the economy – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,856
    geoffw said:

    Very clean.
    It's a clean machine.

    We should get Ian Blackford or John Swinney to stand in front of it, in such a way that the 'F' is obscured.

    Instant internet sensation...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    ydoethur said:

    Look. I yield to no one in belief that Putin's an idiot, but he isn't going to nuke Belarus.

    That's about shelter from conventional bombing by the Ukrainians, who would hopefully be able to take out every single one of Belarus' government buildings and Lukashenko's stolen private residences in the first hour of the war.
    The threads stuff isn't about nuclear war today or tomorrow - it's about the gradual escalation of events that may eventually lead to direct conflict between NATO and Russia a few months down the line.

    It's all boiling frog theory stuff. Things escalate so slowly, it's hard to see the bigger picture. Six months ago, did anyone foresee the Nordstream 2 pipeline being blown up, Iran sending missiles to Russia, or talk of Ukrainian missiles taking out every last government building in Belarus inside the hour?

    Things continue to escalate. We remain on the Threads timeline.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Leon said:

    It looks like you were delusionally wrong over the next invasion and, again, here, you are delusionally wrong

    NATO would not go to all out nuclear war if Putin nuked a Ukrainian city. We have no intention of letting our children die for Lviv

    Macron was a fool for spelling it out as he did, nonetheless he was not lying
    There appears to be a growing consensus that a strategic nuclear bomb on a Ukrainian city would lead to a major conventional response from Nato.

    But anyway why are we, again, talking about nuclear escalation? Nothing has happened to suggest that is where we are headed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,475

    Bah. Over-rated LNER rubbish.

    Not a patch on anything made at Derby. Or Crewe. ;)
    The Sacred Trinity of Crankshafts, made manifest.....

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,856

    It's further than London to Birmingham. Why not just admit that you named the wrong place?
    I didn't. I knew exactly what I was saying.

    Are you suggesting that if a nuclear power station blew in London it wouldn't affect Birmingham? Which isn't even on the same watercourse.

    When the much smaller Chernobyl blew up, they were picking up the pieces in Minsk.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    If you agree that his desired outcome is the annexation of Ukraine (regardless of the events that triggered this) then what is the point of trying to absolve him of having expansionist motivations? It's as if your worldview depends on seeing him as a purely rational chess player who has been forced into his actions by the west.
    I don't pretend to have any particular insight into Putin's actions. I think his invasion of Ukraine has been a catastrophical action from any angle, Russian included. However, I would also argue that most of his actions are consistent with the frequently repated doctrine of Russia buffered from NATO by client states. By glibly dismissing our oponents as mad and dehumanising them, we push away the opportunity to reach any form of peace, which must surely be the paramount aim here.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    That's is probably the best argument for the case that Russia will open a front via Belarus yet - it is so stupid that it is utterly Putinesque.

    The last 8 months are making me think that all the books I've read about Putin were a load of old tosh.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    I don't pretend to have any particular insight into Putin's actions. I think his invasion of Ukraine has been a catastrophical action from any angle, Russian included. However, I would also argue that most of his actions are consistent with the frequently repated doctrine of Russia buffered from NATO by client states. By glibly dismissing our oponents as mad and dehumanising them, we push away the opportunity to reach any form of peace, which must surely be the paramount aim here.
    And by the way, I am not absolving him of expansionism - the very action of demanding that the states around Russia are subservient to his authority is an expansionist act. I don't support that, but I don't propose using meagre British resources to try to stop it either.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,856

    I don't pretend to have any particular insight into Putin's actions. I think his invasion of Ukraine has been a catastrophical action from any angle, Russian included. However, I would also argue that most of his actions are consistent with the frequently repated doctrine of Russia buffered from NATO by client states. By glibly dismissing our oponents as mad and dehumanising them, we push away the opportunity to reach any form of peace, which must surely be the paramount aim here.
    The argument isn't foolish.

    However it does somewhat fall down when you consider that we're talking about a man who sits at the wrong end of the world's longest table calling Jews Nazis and talking about liberating and absorbing foreign countries.

    This is not, I would suggest, a sign of sanity.
  • So they were truthful when they denied an intention to double it?
    Let's call it a political promise.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,856

    There appears to be a growing consensus that a strategic nuclear bomb on a Ukrainian city would lead to a major conventional response from Nato.

    But anyway why are we, again, talking about nuclear escalation? Nothing has happened to suggest that is where we are headed.
    Because Leon's had a few too many.

    And with that, good night.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163

    I don't pretend to have any particular insight into Putin's actions. I think his invasion of Ukraine has been a catastrophical action from any angle, Russian included. However, I would also argue that most of his actions are consistent with the frequently repated doctrine of Russia buffered from NATO by client states. By glibly dismissing our oponents as mad and dehumanising them, we push away the opportunity to reach any form of peace, which must surely be the paramount aim here.
    You're glibly dismissing Ukraine as a place where "a strong challenge to Putin's authority" justifies invasion and annexation. It's not dehumanising anyone to support Ukraine in defending itself and its statehood.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,475
    glw said:

    The last 8 months are making me think that all the books I've read about Putin were a load of old tosh.
    No, that they referred to earlier versions of Putin.

    We all change as we age.

    I think that the behaviour of a number of leaders around the world shows this - that some people become, frankly, addled.
  • Panelbase/Alba (7-11 Oct)
    Westminster VI
    SNP 42 (-3 on 5-7 Oct)
    Lab 30 (nc)
    Con 16 (+1)
    LDm 6 (+1)
    Grn 2 (*)
    Alba 2 (*)

    Holyrood Constituency VI
    SNP 45 (-2 on 17-19 Aug)
    Lab 28 (+6)
    Con 15 (-2)
    LDm 6 (-3)
    Grn 3 (nc)
    Alba 3 (*)

    Holyrood List VI
    SNP 37 (-4 on 17-19 Aug)
    Lab 26 (+4)
    Con 17 (-2)
    Grn 9 (+1)
    LDm 7 (nc)
    Alba 4 (*)

    The Westminster vote shares imply a swing of 7.2% to Labour from SNP since 2019 and would suggest 10 Labour gains with 1 seat neck and neck.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    Why not just admit that you named the wrong place?

    image
    I've no idea if he did, but given the size of Ukraine 3 hours or so is not that far away?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,475

    I don't pretend to have any particular insight into Putin's actions. I think his invasion of Ukraine has been a catastrophical action from any angle, Russian included. However, I would also argue that most of his actions are consistent with the frequently repated doctrine of Russia buffered from NATO by client states. By glibly dismissing our oponents as mad and dehumanising them, we push away the opportunity to reach any form of peace, which must surely be the paramount aim here.
    Quite a few people tried that argument concerning Trump - that saying he was mad etc was dehumanising him.

    Putin has worked very hard to achieve the position he has reached in many people's minds. It's seems rude to deny it to him.

    He's Gone Full Tonto.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Rumours that the Russians are going to retreat from Kherson. Looting the banks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,475
    kle4 said:

    I've no idea if he did, but given the size of Ukraine 3 hours or so is not that far away?
    Given the power plant is on the river, uses it's water for cooling etc. any fun there will be in Kherson in a mater of hours. Never mind prevailing winds.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Ah yes, good call. I'd forgotten his claim that teachers and nurses were all on the lash at the height of Covid lockdowns. Plonker.

    Go for it. Stand against him as a "Sober Ex-Teacher" independent.
    He's an android anyway, with a name and a hairdo like that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834

    Panelbase/Alba (7-11 Oct)
    Westminster VI
    SNP 42 (-3 on 5-7 Oct)
    Lab 30 (nc)
    Con 16 (+1)
    LDm 6 (+1)
    Grn 2 (*)
    Alba 2 (*)

    Holyrood Constituency VI
    SNP 45 (-2 on 17-19 Aug)
    Lab 28 (+6)
    Con 15 (-2)
    LDm 6 (-3)
    Grn 3 (nc)
    Alba 3 (*)

    Holyrood List VI
    SNP 37 (-4 on 17-19 Aug)
    Lab 26 (+4)
    Con 17 (-2)
    Grn 9 (+1)
    LDm 7 (nc)
    Alba 4 (*)

    The Westminster vote shares imply a swing of 7.2% to Labour from SNP since 2019 and would suggest 10 Labour gains with 1 seat neck and neck.

    Truss not doing too much damage north of the border, then?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163

    That's is probably the best argument for the case that Russia will open a front via Belarus yet - it is so stupid that it is utterly Putinesque.
    Talking of crazy plans, I did wonder if the idea might not be to try to take Kyiv again, but to go for Lviv and try to close off Western supplies through Poland.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448
    The TUC MRP poll due to be published at 2230 has Con on 137 seats, with SNP on 37 according to twitter rumours.

    That would suggest substantial SLAB gains in Scotland it seems.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    edited October 2022

    Bah. Over-rated LNER rubbish.

    Not a patch on anything made at Derby. Or Crewe. ;)
    Grrrrr.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,562

    Rumours that the Russians are going to retreat from Kherson. Looting the banks.

    Russian troops have a liking for pens on lengths of string?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    No, that they referred to earlier versions of Putin.

    We all change as we age.

    I think that the behaviour of a number of leaders around the world shows this - that some people become, frankly, addled.
    That's a reasonable point to a degree. But I do think that the West has been collectively blind to how atrophied and nihilistic Russia has become. We have been projecting our views that inculcated during the Cold War onto contemporary Russia and its leadership, and perhaps the whole post-Soviet era, and it has lead us to form opinions about the nation that are clearly at odds with the facts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    Talking of crazy plans, I did wonder if the idea might not be to try to take Kyiv again, but to go for Lviv and try to close off Western supplies through Poland.
    The Pripyat marshes make for very few routes that could be supplied from Western Belarus. They would be cut to pieces, if they don't mutiny and march on Mink first.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080
    IanB2 said:

    Truss not doing too much damage north of the border, then?
    Presumably more the expectation of a stonking Labour victory and majority. Would be ironic really
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116

    It's impossible not to feel a twinge of sympathy for Liz Truss. She will go down in history as the worst British politician of all time. Political science conferences in future years will be devoted to the study of how anyone could be this disastrously bad at politics. Her premiership will likely be so short that book chapters will detail her failings on a minute by minute timeline. And she's not even bad at politics in the kind of hapless harmless way where one day the public will warm to her and people will pay money to hear her self-deprecating raconteurish accounts of the unfolding disaster. Can you imagine being in her shoes now?
    It would be easier to feel sympathy for her if she had shown even the slightest compassion to those refugees she wanted to send on a one way ticket to Rwanda. It feels like Karma
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited October 2022

    Panelbase/Alba (7-11 Oct)
    Westminster VI
    SNP 42 (-3 on 5-7 Oct)
    Lab 30 (nc)
    Con 16 (+1)
    LDm 6 (+1)
    Grn 2 (*)
    Alba 2 (*)

    Holyrood Constituency VI
    SNP 45 (-2 on 17-19 Aug)
    Lab 28 (+6)
    Con 15 (-2)
    LDm 6 (-3)
    Grn 3 (nc)
    Alba 3 (*)

    Holyrood List VI
    SNP 37 (-4 on 17-19 Aug)
    Lab 26 (+4)
    Con 17 (-2)
    Grn 9 (+1)
    LDm 7 (nc)
    Alba 4 (*)

    The Westminster vote shares imply a swing of 7.2% to Labour from SNP since 2019 and would suggest 10 Labour gains with 1 seat neck and neck.

    SNP now down even below the 45% who voted Yes in 2014 for Westminster
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639

    Russian troops have a liking for pens on lengths of string?
    Who doesn't?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,348
    Foxy said:

    The Pripyat marshes make for very few routes that could be supplied from Western Belarus. They would be cut to pieces, if they don't mutiny and march on Mink first.
    May be if you ferret around you could find some more information about that for us? I wouldn’t grouse if you did
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    Talking of crazy plans, I did wonder if the idea might not be to try to take Kyiv again, but to go for Lviv and try to close off Western supplies through Poland.
    Someone else suggested that earlier, but what we know for now is that Russian and Belarusian forces are concentrating further east, around Gomel. I expect we'll know if they redeploy to SW Belarus.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    Daniel Kawczynski MP giving an extensive, jaw-dropping interview on R5L right now.
    Simply everyone else's fault. The list of culprits for the shambles comprises basically everyone who isn't him, Boris or Truss.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    edited October 2022
    Foxy said:

    The TUC MRP poll due to be published at 2230 has Con on 137 seats, with SNP on 37 according to twitter rumours.

    That would suggest substantial SLAB gains in Scotland it seems.

    And substantially more Labour gains in England and Wales.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639

    Grrrrr.
    Weird how many of us have a disproportionate loyalty to our local 'Big 4' 1920s-1940s railway company - especially given for most of us it significantly predates our birth.
    Also, go LMS!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Roger said:


    It would be easier to feel sympathy for her if she had shown even the slightest compassion to those refugees she wanted to send on a one way ticket to Rwanda. It feels like Karma
    Yes, she gave no fucks about them when she was airbrushing her Instagram feed en route to the top.

    Send her back to Roundhay to ruminate on the meaning of public service.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    You're glibly dismissing Ukraine as a place where "a strong challenge to Putin's authority" justifies invasion and annexation. It's not dehumanising anyone to support Ukraine in defending itself and its statehood.
    Not at all; I have never justified it. I have just tried to understand the motivation for it on a slightly more complex level than the 'Putin is a psycopath' that seems to be the general standard of analysis here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Bridgen, Blunt & Wallis.
    I see Truss has lost the weirdo wing of the party. Admittedly there's a good few more there
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,562

    I went to King's Cross today and all I got was this picture:



    Flying Scots-cis-man
  • Roger said:


    It would be easier to feel sympathy for her if she had shown even the slightest compassion to those refugees she wanted to send on a one way ticket to Rwanda. It feels like Karma
    As Denmark and the EU itself are following similar policies are you going to condemn UVDL and the Danes as well
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    No, that they referred to earlier versions of Putin.

    We all change as we age.

    I think that the behaviour of a number of leaders around the world shows this - that some people become, frankly, addled.
    Yes they do, and that is a factor. However, people also act rationally and even morally according to their own reality. And our realities are totally different. We should attempt to understand the realities of others, not to reach out to them in some sort of Mary Poppins way, but to understand the way they may act in the future. It's just sensible to do so. To suggest that our own reality is the only one, and that others whose actions are starkly opposed are suffering from an illness is simply stupid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    May be if you ferret around you could find some more information about that for us? I wouldn’t grouse if you did
    Oi, don't stoat on me for my bloody autocorrect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    edited October 2022

    Not at all; I have never justified it. I have just tried to understand the motivation for it on a slightly more complex level than the 'Putin is a psycopath' that seems to be the general standard of analysis here.
    The motivations expressed do not seem to be very complex to me. When assessed they are often inconsistent or contradictory (I don't want to be encircled by NATO, therefore let's make a larger border with NATO, to pick just one), irrational or ahistorical, or bog standard 'my strength is my country's strength' dictator reasoning.

    Whether Putin is a psycopath seems to be irrelevant when trying to figure out the motivation for all this, when the pretexts have been so numerous and changable (Ukraine is not a real country, no this is about nazis, no it is self defence, no it is about NATO again).

    Things are usually a lot more complex than people think. But sometimes they are relatively simple (with emphasis on relatively). Dismissing the more outlandish pretexts does not itself mean no attempt is made at analysis.

    The psychopath question is more relevant in trying to figure out what Putin might do in response to set backs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    edited October 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Bridgen, Blunt & Wallis.
    I see Truss has lost the weirdo wing of the party. Admittedly there's a good few more there

    I would assert there is a weirdo body.
    With a shrinking sensible wing.
  • Expect some bishop bashing from the Tories.

    Archbishop of Canterbury takes aim at trickle-down economics

    It isn't just Joe Biden taking a public view on Liz Truss's trickle-down economics (see 9.30pm).

    The Most Rev Justin Welby, who made critical remarks while on a tour of Australia, said that if rich people have money they are more likely to save it than spend it.

    He argued that a better way to generate spending in the economy would be to put more money into the pockets of those who need to buy food.

    "In the UK, the priority is the cost of living, with the poorest," he told the Guardian. "And from an economics point of view, I’m deeply sceptical about trickle-down theory."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/16/liz-truss-jeremy-hunt-new-chancellor-income-tax/
  • Not at all; I have never justified it. I have just tried to understand the motivation for it on a slightly more complex level than the 'Putin is a psycopath' that seems to be the general standard of analysis here.
    Have you ever known a psychopath - or at least someone at that end of the psychopathic scale - on a personal and/or professional level?

    I have. And must say, Valdimir Putin ticks the right (or rather wrong) boxes for me on that scorecard,
  • Pulpstar said:

    Bridgen, Blunt & Wallis.
    I see Truss has lost the weirdo wing of the party. Admittedly there's a good few more there

    I'm expecting an avalanche soon.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,857
    dixiedean said:

    I would assert there is a weirdo body.
    With a shrinking sensible wing.
    Even then, most of the sensible feathers already fell off.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838
    ihunt said:

    Putin still has tactical nukes as a last resort. He is by nature a cautious man though so will not act impulsively and im pretty sure if he used nukes he would clear it with china first
    Well, China would be - shall we say - completely opposed to the use of nuclear weapons by Putin. Because once the taboo has been lifted (and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty effectively binned), it becomes inevitable that Taiwan, South Korea and Japan would all become nuclear states - in very short order.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Deceased royal Lord Mountbatten set to be named in court as alleged child abuser
    - Accusations of sex crimes at Belfast boys’ home to be made in court against the late Queen’s second cousin

    https://independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/deceased-royal-lord-mountbatten-set-to-be-named-in-court-as-alleged-child-abuser-42070448.html
  • Scott_xP said:
    I doubt many expect anything other than a labour government in 2024 and if it decimates the the ERG and others then that will be good for the party

    The loss of JRM, Dorries, Braverman, and the entire ERG would be excellent
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    Pulpstar said:

    Bridgen, Blunt & Wallis.
    I see Truss has lost the weirdo wing of the party. Admittedly there's a good few more there

    If Truss is losing her own wing of the party, that's bad news for her.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,755

    To a large extent he is the architect of this mess. Truss & Co just added a bit of decoration to the disaster.
    Truss would never have been in the position to be PM if Johnson hadn't been too feart to promote anyone who might outshine him

    I'm a big fan and admirer of Tim Shipman.

    What's your beef with him?
    usual right-wing bullshit of ripping on Biden when he was a gleeful cheerleader when Trump did the same thing.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,938

    Flying Scots-cis-man
    No true one then.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915

    If Truss is losing her own wing of the party, that's bad news for her.
    Those 3 were never strong Truss supporters AFAIK.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    If this MRP were to play out in a real General Election, it would be:

    - The best result for Labour since 2001.
    - The worse result EVER for the Conservatives.
    - The best result for the Lib Dems since 2010.
    - The worst result for the SNP since 2017. https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1581746060145627139
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    I'm expecting an avalanche soon.
    Have they started fracking near you?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    Andy_JS said:

    Those 3 were never strong Truss supporters AFAIK.
    It was a joke...... never mind.
  • The executive of the 1922 Committee will meet on Wednesday, as usual, with members expected to discuss the precariousness of the prime minister’s position. However, officers of the committee are expected to meet today. Sources close to Brady have suggested he would feel compelled to tell Truss to stand down or face defeat in a vote.

    The group’s treasurer, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, told the BBC that the rules that keep Truss safe in office for a year could be ditched if enough Tory MPs support it. “Of course we have the power to change the rules,” he said.

    However, he added that such a move would require the backing of a substantial number of Tory MPs. “We will only change the rules if it is very clear that a large majority, by which I mean probably 60% to 70%, of the party want the rules to be changed.”
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    Cookie said:

    Weird how many of us have a disproportionate loyalty to our local 'Big 4' 1920s-1940s railway company - especially given for most of us it significantly predates our birth.
    Also, go LMS!
    Lol, true. 'Tis weird, especially since I'm foreign to these parts.

    Mrs Flatlander has loads of pictures from inside the old Doncaster Plantworks taken about 20 years ago. It was in a pretty sad state by then but many of the old features were still there.

    LMS had the best lines, I have to admit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    Liz a goner tomorrow?
  • Have they started fracking near you?
    They tried. The public rebelled.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Liz a goner tomorrow?

    Hope so
  • glw said:

    That's a reasonable point to a degree. But I do think that the West has been collectively blind to how atrophied and nihilistic Russia has become. We have been projecting our views that inculcated during the Cold War onto contemporary Russia and its leadership, and perhaps the whole post-Soviet era, and it has lead us to form opinions about the nation that are clearly at odds with the facts.
    Another factor might be that Western leaders and business people see only Moscow, and tourists only Moscow and St Petersburg, both modern, cosmopolitan, global cities. They do not see the myriad small towns who support Putin, even if they think he's gone a bit soft compared with the hardline Russian nationalists, where supermarkets are rarely full, and hospitals sparsely equipped. Most of Russia, whose towns are, in our terms, left behind, red wall, and Brexity.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Liz a goner tomorrow?

    Tuesday.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Tuesday.
    Certainly by the end of next week!
  • So Ben Wallace becomes PM but in a Chairman of the Board type of way (but focussing on Ukraine) but having strong CEO, COO, and CFO.

    So Sunak, Mordaunt, and Hunt.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    Sunak held drinks at the 5* Londoner Hotel to thank his Treasury team on Wed… beer, wine, nibbles… and guests included… Sir Tom Scholar, Treasury chief mandarin sacked in the Truss-Kwasi takeover.

    Sunak singled him out for praise.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1581748429427920896
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163
    rcs1000 said:

    I've never understood why Russia needs a buffer state? It seems much more reasonable that Ukraine should have a buffer state, after all, they're the people who have been most recently invaded. Maybe some part of Western Russia should be carved off, renamed, and its government should be stripped of the power to enter into partnerships or alliances, so that Ukrainians can feel more comfortable.

    Sounds ridiculous, right?
    I don’t know; it sounds like a plausible outcome from the war.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089

    So Ben Wallace becomes PM but in a Chairman of the Board type of way (but focussing on Ukraine) but having strong CEO, COO, and CFO.

    So Sunak, Mordaunt, and Hunt.

    But Zahawi is the COO...

    Stop giggling at the back
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Scott_xP said:

    If this MRP were to play out in a real General Election, it would be:

    - The best result for Labour since 2001.
    - The worse result EVER for the Conservatives.
    - The best result for the Lib Dems since 2010.
    - The worst result for the SNP since 2017. https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1581746060145627139

    This is now Labours chance to weaponise opinion polling in a reverse 2015 play.

    Vote labour to save the union!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786
    edited October 2022

    So Ben Wallace becomes PM but in a Chairman of the Board type of way (but focussing on Ukraine) but having strong CEO, COO, and CFO.

    So Sunak, Mordaunt, and Hunt.

    That ticks my boxes
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Foxy said:

    Oi, don't stoat on me for my bloody autocorrect.
    It's a pain when one is badgered by some fisher for data.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Lol, true. 'Tis weird, especially since I'm foreign to these parts.

    Mrs Flatlander has loads of pictures from inside the old Doncaster Plantworks taken about 20 years ago. It was in a pretty sad state by then but many of the old features were still there.

    LMS had the best lines, I have to admit.
    The LMS did go a fair bit of the way to standardisation - but that might be in hindsight, coloured by the fact that they dominated BR.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    Another factor might be that Western leaders and business people see only Moscow, and tourists only Moscow and St Petersburg, both modern, cosmopolitan, global cities. They do not see the myriad small towns who support Putin, even if they think he's gone a bit soft compared with the hardline Russian nationalists, where supermarkets are rarely full, and hospitals sparsely equipped. Most of Russia, whose towns are, in our terms, left behind, red wall, and Brexity.

    I think that's true as well.

    You see it in the media all the time that a correspondent reports from a nearby city, not the place in the story. This is true even for prestigious publications in relatively small and prosperous countries. How good is Western reporting of Russia really? And China's the same problem times 10, because the language and cultural barriers plus the sheer number of places and people make it even hard to report on.

    Of course the whole point of having intelligence agencies is to actually figure out what's really going on, and yet their assessments still seem to be off the mark, even if they can detect the intent of the Russian government.

    Assuming we get through this, there really needs to be a thorough assessment of what we did and didn't get wrong in assessing the readiness, willingness, and ability of the Russian state to wage war on Ukraine. Because if we are getting it wrong with Russia you can be sure we are making similar mistakes with other countries.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited October 2022

    Expect some bishop bashing from the Tories.

    Archbishop of Canterbury takes aim at trickle-down economics

    It isn't just Joe Biden taking a public view on Liz Truss's trickle-down economics (see 9.30pm).

    The Most Rev Justin Welby, who made critical remarks while on a tour of Australia, said that if rich people have money they are more likely to save it than spend it.

    He argued that a better way to generate spending in the economy would be to put more money into the pockets of those who need to buy food.

    "In the UK, the priority is the cost of living, with the poorest," he told the Guardian. "And from an economics point of view, I’m deeply sceptical about trickle-down theory."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/16/liz-truss-jeremy-hunt-new-chancellor-income-tax/

    Good idea. We could start by freezing all CofE assets and "redistributing" them to the least well off. 🙏
  • GIN1138 said:

    Good idea. We could start by freezing all CofE assets and "redistributing" them to he least well off. 🙏
    Aye, sell off Lambeth Palace for starters.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    Wallace isn't optimal because even if he plays a "Chairman" role the bottom line is he would still be front and centre in a GE campaign and he simply will not win as many votes as Penny or Sunak would.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited October 2022

    So Ben Wallace becomes PM but in a Chairman of the Board type of way (but focussing on Ukraine) but having strong CEO, COO, and CFO.

    So Sunak, Mordaunt, and Hunt.

    Wallace has never given any indication he has any desire to be PM though?

    Sunak was rejected by party members and he has to take his share of responsibility in the whole leadership election fiasco and Truss becoming PM in any case.

    Which leaves us with Penny. She should become PM, Hunt stays as Chancellor and Sunak can be Deputy PM if that's grandiose enough for him?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,475

    I don’t know; it sounds like a plausible outcome from the war.
    Doing the Cold War, various Tankies would tell people that, of course Russia *had* to have control of Eastern Europe, after their terrible suffering in WWII.

    I always though - "Fuck me, that's one hell of a comfort blanket".
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,348

    Deceased royal Lord Mountbatten set to be named in court as alleged child abuser
    - Accusations of sex crimes at Belfast boys’ home to be made in court against the late Queen’s second cousin

    https://independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/deceased-royal-lord-mountbatten-set-to-be-named-in-court-as-alleged-child-abuser-42070448.html

    The underlying allegations (about a specific pedophile ring) have previously been investigated and found groundless
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    So Ben Wallace becomes PM but in a Chairman of the Board type of way (but focussing on Ukraine) but having strong CEO, COO, and CFO.

    So Sunak, Mordaunt, and Hunt.

    Wallace might even try to somewhat rehabilitate Boris - by giving him a very specific Ukraine role.

    He could still be a campaign asset for the Conservatives at the next election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,475

    Aye, sell off Lambeth Palace for starters.
    Time for a Reformation of the Church, eh?
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    GIN1138 said:

    Wallace has never given any indication he has any desire to be PM though?

    Sunak was rejected by party members and he has to take his share of responsibility in the whole leadership election fiasco and Truss becoming PM in any case.

    Which leaves us with Penny. She should become PM, Hunt stays as Chancellor and Sunak can be Deputy PM if that's grandiose enough for him?
    Big danger though with Mordaunt. If she fails she will become the 3rd consecutive female pm to be a failure in office...not a good look for feminism
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163

    Doing the Cold War, various Tankies would tell people that, of course Russia *had* to have control of Eastern Europe, after their terrible suffering in WWII.

    I always though - "Fuck me, that's one hell of a comfort blanket".
    A view that seems to have been shared by much of the German establishment.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Expect some bishop bashing from the Tories.

    Archbishop of Canterbury takes aim at trickle-down economics

    It isn't just Joe Biden taking a public view on Liz Truss's trickle-down economics (see 9.30pm).

    The Most Rev Justin Welby, who made critical remarks while on a tour of Australia, said that if rich people have money they are more likely to save it than spend it.

    He argued that a better way to generate spending in the economy would be to put more money into the pockets of those who need to buy food.

    "In the UK, the priority is the cost of living, with the poorest," he told the Guardian. "And from an economics point of view, I’m deeply sceptical about trickle-down theory."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/16/liz-truss-jeremy-hunt-new-chancellor-income-tax/

    I always listen to old Etonians on fiscal matters.

    bleating ninny.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378
    GIN1138 said:

    Wallace has never given any indication he has any desire to be PM though?

    Sunak was rejected by party members and he has to take his share of responsibility in the whole leadership election fiasco and Truss becoming PM in any case.

    Which leaves us with Penny. She should become PM, Hunt stays as Chancellor and Sunak can be Deputy PM if that's grandiose enough for him?
    While she's a vastly better public speaker than failed Cosplay Thatcher, Mordaunt is incompetent and dishonest. Not sure she'd be a magic bullet to the Tories problems.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Andy_JS said:
    When she lies awake because she can't face PMQs.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzmgJ_ZOqrE
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Tuesday.
    Can she become enough of a goner to evade PMQs on Wednesday? She surely can't hand in notice to Chas without recommending a successor?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    rcs1000 said:

    I've never understood why Russia needs a buffer state? It seems much more reasonable that Ukraine should have a buffer state, after all, they're the people who have been most recently invaded. Maybe some part of Western Russia should be carved off, renamed, and its government should be stripped of the power to enter into partnerships or alliances, so that Ukrainians can feel more comfortable.

    Sounds ridiculous, right?
    I find Russia position incoherent other than just being special pleading. Russia believes might is right and then complains it isn't fair how the west tries to dictate everything. Russia decries the rules based international order as a western coup, ignoring the fact that it enshrines Russia's territory as being nearly twice the size of any other sovereign state with more resources than anyone else which can't be challenged. Russia believes in spheres of influence politics, so why not advise them there are three major economic power blocs in the world, the US, Europe and China, so how about we split Russia in two? The western part could be in the European sphere of influence and Siberia in the Chinese sphere of influence. Russia feels surrounded by Nato so has no option but to defend itself - by committing its entire armed forces to a conflict with a non-Nato member and leaving theselves hopeless exposed to an attack on Moscow and St Petersburg from the dreaded Nato.

    Diplomats were careful in the 90s not to humiliate Russia. I wonder if we went too far and indulged their fantasies to global superpower status even if they lack the money, technology or ideas to make it a reality. It might be worth reminding them that the collapse of the Soviet Union had little to do with the west - the US President himself opposed it(!) and was all about Russia's own incompetence and cruelty.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,475
    glw said:

    I think that's true as well.

    You see it in the media all the time that a correspondent reports from a nearby city, not the place in the story. This is true even for prestigious publications in relatively small and prosperous countries. How good is Western reporting of Russia really? And China's the same problem times 10, because the language and cultural barriers plus the sheer number of places and people make it even hard to report on.

    Of course the whole point of having intelligence agencies is to actually figure out what's really going on, and yet their assessments still seem to be off the mark, even if they can detect the intent of the Russian government.

    Assuming we get through this, there really needs to be a thorough assessment of what we did and didn't get wrong in assessing the readiness, willingness, and ability of the Russian state to wage war on Ukraine. Because if we are getting it wrong with Russia you can be sure we are making similar mistakes with other countries.
    The problem seems to have been the layered corruption in Russia - which is much the same that it was in the USSR.

    Each layer in the system takes the information from below, embellishes it to make it seem better and passes it on.

    So the CIA used to steal the stuff being shown to the Politburo which was -

    Truth x 1st improvernemnt x 2nd improvement .... 27th improvement = horse manure.

    A chap I used to work with went around part of the old Soviet Union, after the fall. He traced, in the oil industry, the way that the bullshit multiplied up the tree. By the time it got to the regional government it was absurd. By the time it got to Moscow.....
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Do you think he's hired, new smarter people to post on Internet message boards?
    I doubt it. Not much of a return in that. I meant heavier kinds of cyberwar.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ihunt said:

    Big danger though with Mordaunt. If she fails she will become the 3rd consecutive female pm to be a failure in office...not a good look for feminism
    What, it will fuel the suspicion that when all is said and done the memsahibs aren't really up to it? jerk.

    What rhymes with ihunt?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 759
    ihunt said:

    Big danger though with Mordaunt. If she fails she will become the 3rd consecutive female pm to be a failure in office...not a good look for feminism
    All political careers end in...
This discussion has been closed.