🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Possibly, but more gradually. It's not a myth really. The mortgage lenders rushed to change their offers precipitously as a direct response to the market's response to the special financial operation, unless I'm mistaken, over a period of a few days rather than gradually.
That's true, but fixed rates had already reached 4.74% even before the mini-budget.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Possibly, but more gradually. It's not a myth really. The mortgage lenders rushed to change their offers precipitously as a direct response to the market's response to the special financial operation, unless I'm mistaken, over a period of a few days rather than gradually.
The most interesting counterfactual is if the BoE had raised interest rates by 0.75% last time instead of trying the gradual approach. That might have brought forward some of the panic over rising rates and Kwarteng would have had chance to change his mini-budget before he delivered it.
Given the pain being caused to the real economy by the financial turbulence, it’s not clear why it is in anyone’s interests to wait 18 more days before the inevitable u-turn on the mini budget
Perhaps it can just be delayed indefinitely before being eventually scrapped, like Cameron and Osborne's pledge to 'pay down our national debt'.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Yep, but that was obvious right from the start and it is amazing that she didn't see it coming.
This is the issue really. They completely failed to spot this particular oncoming train. What else are they going to miss?
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
The least worst option, as it has been from the very beginning, is to reverse everything they have done so far, up to and including cabinet appointments.
Completely reverse the budget.
Sack Kwasi. And Braverman. And Coffey.
Appoint Rishi. And Hunt. And Gove.
Live to fight another day.
Or resign. Today. And call an election.
Would not an election really spook the market?
Probably as labour have not a creditable offer either at present, other than everything goes on a windfall tax
I listened to Lisa Nandy on the nurses demands for a 15% pay rise and she simply had no answer
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
It's rather like Russians who blame Gorbachev for the break up of the Soviet Union.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Possibly, but more gradually. It's not a myth really. The mortgage lenders rushed to change their offers precipitously as a direct response to the market's response to the special financial operation, unless I'm mistaken, over a period of a few days rather than gradually.
The most interesting counterfactual is if the BoE had raised interest rates by 0.75% last time instead of trying the gradual approach. That might have brought forward some of the panic over rising rates and Kwarteng would have had chance to change his mini-budget before he delivered it.
Unlikely as many in the market were expecting 75bp.
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
The trouble is that a big fall in house prices combined with higher interest rates doesn't help younger buyers, quite the opposite. What happens is that the mortgage providers get nervous about affordability and negative equity, and require bigger deposits, whilst at the same time sellers don't put their houses on the market. The whole market seizes up, leaving only a few forced sellers whose properties get bought at low prices by people with cash.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Yep, but that was obvious right from the start and it is amazing that she didn't see it coming.
Part of politics is knowing when to get on/off the stage so you can take credit/ avoid blame for big things that would have happened anyway. Call it luck or cunning, it has the same effect.
But even though the economy has been heading for the rocks anyway for a while, that doesn't excuse Team KT making it worse.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
Not really. The result of the last 20 years, and especially the last two years, is that governments all over the world have no good options. At least Truss tried to break with the failed consensus, albeit ineptly.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
I said it right at the start. Truss should sack Kwasi, publicly and noisily, to save her job.
It might not be enough, but it's a necessary step.
She can't, that would be publicly acknowledging that she was wrong to put him in place, and that most of his economical agenda (which is her agenda but with a lot of his shitey twists and poor presentation) is wrong. I know ypu believe that to be true (I disagree) but either way it's impossible politically. He can throw himself on his sword though.
But who would be Chancellor? It can't be Rishi, he wouldn't accept (thank God) and if he did, he'd run a take down Liz operation from within Government. It can't be Penny because the media would have her for breakfast. I like John Redwood, and would like to see him as a Treasury Minister of some description but I'm not daft enough to think he'd be accepted as CoE. I think maybe someone like Jeremy Hunt. Clapped out as a leadership contender, but experienced and reassuring. He is totally ideologically opposed to Truss's agenda, but so was Kwarteng.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
It's not a myth. House prices were probably going to peak and drift downwards as mortgage costs ticked up. Now - because of her immaturity and recklessness - there's a fair chance of a sharp plummet as costs rocket. This multiplies the pain and for no reason other than political vanity.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Very true but Truss/Kwarteng actions have have added 1 per cent or so
Maybe brought it forward by a few weeks or possibly months.
What they have done is much more about exposing the shitty situation we were in than actually causing it.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Possibly, but more gradually. It's not a myth really. The mortgage lenders rushed to change their offers precipitously as a direct response to the market's response to the special financial operation, unless I'm mistaken, over a period of a few days rather than gradually.
The most interesting counterfactual is if the BoE had raised interest rates by 0.75% last time instead of trying the gradual approach. That might have brought forward some of the panic over rising rates and Kwarteng would have had chance to change his mini-budget before he delivered it.
Unlikely as many in the market were expecting 75bp.
I'm talking more about the repricing of mortgages cutting through to the general public.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Very true but Truss/Kwarteng actions have have added 1 per cent or so
And added chaos and instability to an already challenging environment.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
It's not a myth. House prices were probably going to peak and drift downwards as mortgage costs ticked up. Now - because of her immaturity and recklessness - there's a fair chance of a sharp plummet as costs rocket. This multiplies the pain and for no reason other than political vanity.
You think the Bank of England could have got away without following the Fed on interest rates? How low would the pound go in this scenario?
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
He’s right. She should resign with dignity. Go down with grace
One decent speech and then she’s a footnote
The times are cruel. But at least she can say “I was prime minister”
Would you pay her 150 grand for an after-dinner speech?
Perhaps she could go down the Tommy Cooper route and make a virtue out of incompetence- Tommy got a lot more popular when he stopped doing serious magic and pretended to mess things up
To pull that off, you have to be able to do serious magic.
Anyone think Truss can do serious politics?
She has basically appeared on the scene saying "I have this great new shiny way of doing things. It'll be GREAT!"
The markets said "Er....no, it really isn't...."
And all you can hear from Truss is a repeat of "It'll be GREAT!" with a blank face and lack of any comprehension of how NOT-GREAT things really are.
Even if she were to do a massive U-turn and basically implement everything Rishi Sunak said needed to be done that wasn't bat-shit crazy, there would be a strong residual fear that when we weren't looking, she'd again come out with some bat-shit crazy stuff accompanied by "It'll be GREAT!"...
Conservative Party, please note: you have already seen the best of Liz Truss. Frightening as that concept might be.....
Rishi's ideas were batshit crazy, far crazier than anything Truss has come up with. Liz has so far avoided a recession - Rishi would have swerved into it and made it a depression. It's been a surprise and a disappointment to me that people like you who I felt were intelligent and free-thinking have abandoned their own critical faculties and added to the chorus of flatulent wailing from idiot media commentators and PB's remoaner contingent.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
The least worst option, as it has been from the very beginning, is to reverse everything they have done so far, up to and including cabinet appointments.
Completely reverse the budget.
Sack Kwasi. And Braverman. And Coffey.
Appoint Rishi. And Hunt. And Gove.
Live to fight another day.
Or resign. Today. And call an election.
The most important reverse on the Budget, the politically damaging and deficit expanding cut to the 45p top income tax rate has been done. That cut only benefited the richest 1% anyway.
The cut to the basic rate of income tax and NI and Stamp Duty however was popular with voters and the cut to corporation tax with Tory voters. Increasing those would hit both ordinary voters and businesses making the situation potentially worse
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
The trouble is that a big fall in house prices combined with higher interest rates doesn't help younger buyers, quite the opposite. What happens is that the mortgage providers get nervous about affordability and negative equity, and require bigger deposits, whilst at the same time sellers don't put their houses on the market. The whole market seizes up, leaving only a few forced sellers whose properties get bought at low prices by people with cash.
It really is so kind of the boomer generation to protect their children and grandchildren from the folly of affordable house prices.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
If it breaks while you're holding it you will get the blame, regardless of your degree of culpability, as Gordon Brown learned. But Truss's actions have undoubtedly made things worse (the unanimous view of dispassionate market participants) and worse than that she has no plan to deal with any of it.
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
The trouble is that a big fall in house prices combined with higher interest rates doesn't help younger buyers, quite the opposite. What happens is that the mortgage providers get nervous about affordability and negative equity, and require bigger deposits, whilst at the same time sellers don't put their houses on the market. The whole market seizes up, leaving only a few forced sellers whose properties get bought at low prices by people with cash.
This is only true if you take an extremely short-term perspective. The mid-90s was a good time to be a first-time buyer.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Yep, but that was obvious right from the start and it is amazing that she didn't see it coming.
This is (in part) what I meant earlier about stupendously bad politics. But the rates do seem to go up every time Kwarteng opens his gob, and we do seem to be doing worse here than anywhere else - it would have happened, just not as bad, as quickly or as chaotically.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
He’s right. She should resign with dignity. Go down with grace
One decent speech and then she’s a footnote
The times are cruel. But at least she can say “I was prime minister”
Would you pay her 150 grand for an after-dinner speech?
Perhaps she could go down the Tommy Cooper route and make a virtue out of incompetence- Tommy got a lot more popular when he stopped doing serious magic and pretended to mess things up
To pull that off, you have to be able to do serious magic.
Anyone think Truss can do serious politics?
She has basically appeared on the scene saying "I have this great new shiny way of doing things. It'll be GREAT!"
The markets said "Er....no, it really isn't...."
And all you can hear from Truss is a repeat of "It'll be GREAT!" with a blank face and lack of any comprehension of how NOT-GREAT things really are.
Even if she were to do a massive U-turn and basically implement everything Rishi Sunak said needed to be done that wasn't bat-shit crazy, there would be a strong residual fear that when we weren't looking, she'd again come out with some bat-shit crazy stuff accompanied by "It'll be GREAT!"...
Conservative Party, please note: you have already seen the best of Liz Truss. Frightening as that concept might be.....
Rishi's ideas were batshit crazy, far crazier than anything Truss has come up with. Liz has so far avoided a recession - Rishi would have swerved into it and made it a depression. It's been a surprise and a disappointment to me that people like you who I felt were intelligent and free-thinking have abandoned their own critical faculties and added to the chorus of flatulent wailing from idiot media commentators and PB's remoaner contingent.
The problem is, if you get the narrative against you, it doesn't matter what your ideas are - everything will be seen as a negative.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
If it breaks while you're holding it you will get the blame, regardless of your degree of culpability, as Gordon Brown learned. But Truss's actions have undoubtedly made things worse (the unanimous view of dispassionate market participants) and worse than that she has no plan to deal with any of it.
Gordon Brown had been Chancellor and then PM for over a decade!
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
Hi Richard, you are one of the erstwhile Tories I'm canvassing for my straw poll. Will you be joining Eagles and Max and voting Labour next time?
No, I'll be voting LibDem, but that's partly because of a particular LibDem candidate. However, if I was in a Lab-Con marginal and if the Lab candidate was sane, I'd probably vote Labour. As this stage I would far prefer a Labour or Labour-led government to the sad husk of what was once the Conservative Party.
Perhaps after a walloping at the ballot box they'll be able to have a good long think, squeeze out the Brexit poison, and Build Back Better.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Yep, but that was obvious right from the start and it is amazing that she didn't see it coming.
Part of politics is knowing when to get on/off the stage so you can take credit/ avoid blame for big things that would have happened anyway. Call it luck or cunning, it has the same effect.
But even though the economy has been heading for the rocks anyway for a while, that doesn't excuse Team KT making it worse.
She should have done what Rishi was doing in the early stages of the leadership contest: being honest with people and making clear that there were no free lunches. If she'd prepared the ground, and as you say avoided making things worse, she wouldn't have taken anything like as much flak.
But Conservative Party members, addicted to being told porkies by Boris and Vote Leave, wanted to continue with the fantasy cakeism. Many of them still do.
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
The trouble is that a big fall in house prices combined with higher interest rates doesn't help younger buyers, quite the opposite. What happens is that the mortgage providers get nervous about affordability and negative equity, and require bigger deposits, whilst at the same time sellers don't put their houses on the market. The whole market seizes up, leaving only a few forced sellers whose properties get bought at low prices by people with cash.
And no new houses get built, because it is not viable: due to a collapse in demand, and the fact that the cost of building continues to rise with inflation.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
Not really. The result of the last 20 years, and especially the last two years, is that governments all over the world have no good options. At least Truss tried to break with the failed consensus, albeit ineptly.
On that basis we should give Corbyn a go next. He would also ineptly break with the failed consensus. Sometimes things are a consensus because they are the least bad option.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
The least worst option, as it has been from the very beginning, is to reverse everything they have done so far, up to and including cabinet appointments.
Completely reverse the budget.
Sack Kwasi. And Braverman. And Coffey.
Appoint Rishi. And Hunt. And Gove.
Live to fight another day.
Or resign. Today. And call an election.
Oddly, on Hunt we agree. It does make me question myself a little, as your 'recommendation' comes from a place of hating the Government and wanting to see it fail, but I still think just Hunt would be fine. I wouldn't appoint those other two snakes to oversee a whelk stall.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
Hi Richard, you are one of the erstwhile Tories I'm canvassing for my straw poll. Will you be joining Eagles and Max and voting Labour next time?
No, I'll be voting LibDem, but that's partly because of a particular LibDem candidate. However, if I was in a Lab-Con marginal and if the Lab candidate was sane, I'd probably vote Labour. As this stage I would far prefer a Labour or Labour-led government to the sad husk of what was once the Conservative Party.
Perhaps after a walloping at the ballot box they'll be able to have a good long think, squeeze out the Brexit poison, and Build Back Better.
Yes, of course, but I think it will take nearly a decade, as it did 1997-2005. Of course, in the meantime it's possible that PR will have been introduced, in which case a new centre-right party will probably emerge, leaving the current Tory Party as an extremist fringe group.
Does that mean that the 40 new hospitals won’t happen now if they cut capital spending ! Or to be more exact the refurbishments peddled as new hospitals .
40 new hospitals?? Liz wouldn’t even commit to repairing the one nearest her constituency that is falling down and had something like 2000 separate water leaks
Oddly, on Hunt we agree. It does make me question myself a little, as your 'recommendation' comes from a place of hating the Government and wanting to see it fail, but I still think just Hunt would be fine. I wouldn't appoint those other two snakes to oversee a whelk stall.
This Government has failed. More spectacularly than any other in living memory.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
It's not a myth. House prices were probably going to peak and drift downwards as mortgage costs ticked up. Now - because of her immaturity and recklessness - there's a fair chance of a sharp plummet as costs rocket. This multiplies the pain and for no reason other than political vanity.
You think the Bank of England could have got away without following the Fed on interest rates? How low would the pound go in this scenario?
I personally think that the stupidity and arrogance of the Bank MPC in only increasing the base rate by 0.5% instead of 0.75% did more to destabilise the pound and indeed the gilt market than Kwasi's nonsense. It was directly contrary to their mandate. Inflation was completely out of control and the weak pound was adding to that, particularly in relation to fuel costs which are in dollars. Weakening Sterling in that way was completely irresponsible.
Of course the new government showing itself to be equally irresponsible with fiscal policy didn't help but the Bank knew that when they made their decision. One of the idiots on the MPC voted for only 0.25% of a rise. 3 recognised the danger but were outvoted by the Bank representatives including the Governor. It was reckless. The refusal to correct that error with an emergency increase since was and is arrogant. For all Kwarteng's stupidity the behaviour of the Bank has been the larger cause of any additional instability in financial markets beyond what everyone else has also suffered.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
Hi Richard, you are one of the erstwhile Tories I'm canvassing for my straw poll. Will you be joining Eagles and Max and voting Labour next time?
No, I'll be voting LibDem, but that's partly because of a particular LibDem candidate. However, if I was in a Lab-Con marginal and if the Lab candidate was sane, I'd probably vote Labour. As this stage I would far prefer a Labour or Labour-led government to the sad husk of what was once the Conservative Party.
A great party, rotted from within, was defeated from without.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
I said it right at the start. Truss should sack Kwasi, publicly and noisily, to save her job.
It might not be enough, but it's a necessary step.
She can't, that would be publicly acknowledging that she was wrong to put him in place, and that most of his economical agenda (which is her agenda but with a lot of his shitey twists and poor presentation) is wrong. I know ypu believe that to be true (I disagree) but either way it's impossible politically. He can throw himself on his sword though.
But who would be Chancellor? It can't be Rishi, he wouldn't accept (thank God) and if he did, he'd run a take down Liz operation from within Government. It can't be Penny because the media would have her for breakfast. I like John Redwood, and would like to see him as a Treasury Minister of some description but I'm not daft enough to think he'd be accepted as CoE. I think maybe someone like Jeremy Hunt. Clapped out as a leadership contender, but experienced and reassuring. He is totally ideologically opposed to Truss's agenda, but so was Kwarteng.
Ken Clarke would be a good choice from the HOL
I don't think he'd want to do it.
I'd say Hunt as COE, Redwood to the Treasury, possibly Kemi too, both in junior roles, to reassure that Hunt wasn't going to go rogue.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
Hi Richard, you are one of the erstwhile Tories I'm canvassing for my straw poll. Will you be joining Eagles and Max and voting Labour next time?
No, I'll be voting LibDem, but that's partly because of a particular LibDem candidate. However, if I was in a Lab-Con marginal and if the Lab candidate was sane, I'd probably vote Labour. As this stage I would far prefer a Labour or Labour-led government to the sad husk of what was once the Conservative Party.
Perhaps after a walloping at the ballot box they'll be able to have a good long think, squeeze out the Brexit poison, and Build Back Better.
Yes, of course, but I think it will take nearly a decade, as it did 1997-2005. Of course, in the meantime it's possible that PR will have been introduced, in which case a new centre-right party will probably emerge, leaving the current Tory Party as an extremist fringe group.
Sadly PR has probably receded with Labour looking at a clear win.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
I have sympathy with that view.
*However*, there are a set of prices which are comparable between countries, that indicate the confidence that Mr Market has that a government/country will control both deficits and inflation.
It's called the ten year government bond yield. (Or even more so, the thirty year one.)
Let's look at the one month change in yields around the world. 10 years first:
US - 3.53% to 4.00% Germany- 1.60% to 2.31% UK - 3.21% to 4.24%
Now 30 years:
US - 3.49% to 3.94% Germany- 1.80% to 2.31% UK - 3.55% to 4.59%
Most countries have seen long term interest rates increase by 0.5%. In the UK, it's by just over 1%.
In other words, blame should be roughly evenly distributed between global market forces (inflation and a desire from investors for more yield) and a specific increase in the UK risk premium.
Oddly, on Hunt we agree. It does make me question myself a little, as your 'recommendation' comes from a place of hating the Government and wanting to see it fail, but I still think just Hunt would be fine. I wouldn't appoint those other two snakes to oversee a whelk stall.
This Government has failed. More spectacularly than any other in living memory.
I want the Country to survive.
I would like to believe you. I think you just want revenge for Brexit. The two aren't the same.
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
The trouble is that a big fall in house prices combined with higher interest rates doesn't help younger buyers, quite the opposite. What happens is that the mortgage providers get nervous about affordability and negative equity, and require bigger deposits, whilst at the same time sellers don't put their houses on the market. The whole market seizes up, leaving only a few forced sellers whose properties get bought at low prices by people with cash.
This is only true if you take an extremely short-term perspective. The mid-90s was a good time to be a first-time buyer.
For those who held on long enough and didn't go bust in the meantime. Prices took nearly a decade to recover from 1989.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
I have sympathy with that view.
*However*, there are a set of prices which are comparable between countries, that indicate the confidence that Mr Market has that a government/country will control both deficits and inflation.
It's called the ten year government bond yield. (Or even more so, the thirty year one.)
Let's look at the one month change in yields around the world. 10 years first:
US - 3.53% to 4.00% Germany- 1.60% to 2.31% UK - 3.21% to 4.24%
Now 30 years:
US - 3.49% to 3.94% Germany- 1.80% to 2.31% UK - 3.55% to 4.59%
Most countries have seen long term interest rates increase by 0.5%. In the UK, it's by just over 1%.
In other words, blame should be roughly evenly distributed between global market forces (inflation and a desire from investors for more yield) and a specific increase in the UK risk premium.
Global market forces do not go in the blame column but are just the impact of external uncontrollable events.
The UK risk premium increase however, sits firmly in the blame column.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
The least worst option, as it has been from the very beginning, is to reverse everything they have done so far, up to and including cabinet appointments.
Completely reverse the budget.
Sack Kwasi. And Braverman. And Coffey.
Appoint Rishi. And Hunt. And Gove.
Live to fight another day.
Or resign. Today. And call an election.
The most important reverse on the Budget, the politically damaging and deficit expanding cut to the 45p top income tax rate has been done. That cut only benefited the richest 1% anyway.
The cut to the basic rate of income tax and NI and Stamp Duty however was popular with voters and the cut to corporation tax with Tory voters. Increasing those would hit both ordinary voters and businesses making the situation potentially worse
If she wants to keep those she will have to find at least equivalent taxes to put up. Fiscal drag will be a serious factor in the budget with more paying higher rate taxes than ever before but it will not be enough.
If the Tories want to survive as a going concern they must get rid of Truss and Kwarteng, quickly followed by Braverman, Rees-Mogg and Coffey.
Crown Rishi and bring in a technocratic government, probably with someone like Javid or Hunt in the Exchequer.
Probably not just best for the Tories (who I despise as a cancer), but for the country at this stage, which has become a international whipping boy.
The risk is Farage would then pounce from the right, feeding off what remains even now of the Tory carcass while they win back few if any voters already lost to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
Farage has already attacked Tory MPs criticising the Truss tax cuts while saying the government is still weak on immigration
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
That is down to timing and they chose the timing. Them's the breaks.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Yep, but that was obvious right from the start and it is amazing that she didn't see it coming.
Part of politics is knowing when to get on/off the stage so you can take credit/ avoid blame for big things that would have happened anyway. Call it luck or cunning, it has the same effect.
But even though the economy has been heading for the rocks anyway for a while, that doesn't excuse Team KT making it worse.
She should have done what Rishi was doing in the early stages of the leadership contest: being honest with people and making clear that there were no free lunches. If she'd prepared the ground, and as you say avoided making things worse, she wouldn't have taken anything like as much flak.
But Conservative Party members, addicted to being told porkies by Boris and Vote Leave, wanted to continue with the fantasy cakeism. Many of them still do.
And had Truss done the right thing and told the truth, someone else would have taken up the "Politicians are stopping you being rich and it's so easy to change that" banner and won with it.
I dunno. Maybe 1 - 1.5% growth is what Western economies can do for the next few decades. That's still doubling over a lifetime. Lots of other questions become harder for sure, but not everything is a conspiracy.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
The least worst option, as it has been from the very beginning, is to reverse everything they have done so far, up to and including cabinet appointments.
Completely reverse the budget.
Sack Kwasi. And Braverman. And Coffey.
Appoint Rishi. And Hunt. And Gove.
Live to fight another day.
Or resign. Today. And call an election.
The most important reverse on the Budget, the politically damaging and deficit expanding cut to the 45p top income tax rate has been done. That cut only benefited the richest 1% anyway.
The cut to the basic rate of income tax and NI and Stamp Duty however was popular with voters and the cut to corporation tax with Tory voters. Increasing those would hit both ordinary voters and businesses making the situation potentially worse
Ordinary voters are getting energy bill rebates and caps. Raising taxes (or not cutting them) is getting some of this back from many who didn't really need it.
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
The trouble is that a big fall in house prices combined with higher interest rates doesn't help younger buyers, quite the opposite. What happens is that the mortgage providers get nervous about affordability and negative equity, and require bigger deposits, whilst at the same time sellers don't put their houses on the market. The whole market seizes up, leaving only a few forced sellers whose properties get bought at low prices by people with cash.
This is only true if you take an extremely short-term perspective. The mid-90s was a good time to be a first-time buyer.
For those who held on long enough and didn't go bust in the meantime. Prices took nearly a decade to recover from 1989.
That's completely irrelevant if you were a first-time buyer in the 1990s. Your argument that such people were locked out of the market doesn't match the reality of what happened.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
He’s right. She should resign with dignity. Go down with grace
One decent speech and then she’s a footnote
The times are cruel. But at least she can say “I was prime minister”
Would you pay her 150 grand for an after-dinner speech?
Perhaps she could go down the Tommy Cooper route and make a virtue out of incompetence- Tommy got a lot more popular when he stopped doing serious magic and pretended to mess things up
To pull that off, you have to be able to do serious magic.
Anyone think Truss can do serious politics?
She has basically appeared on the scene saying "I have this great new shiny way of doing things. It'll be GREAT!"
The markets said "Er....no, it really isn't...."
And all you can hear from Truss is a repeat of "It'll be GREAT!" with a blank face and lack of any comprehension of how NOT-GREAT things really are.
Even if she were to do a massive U-turn and basically implement everything Rishi Sunak said needed to be done that wasn't bat-shit crazy, there would be a strong residual fear that when we weren't looking, she'd again come out with some bat-shit crazy stuff accompanied by "It'll be GREAT!"...
Conservative Party, please note: you have already seen the best of Liz Truss. Frightening as that concept might be.....
Rishi's ideas were batshit crazy, far crazier than anything Truss has come up with. Liz has so far avoided a recession - Rishi would have swerved into it and made it a depression. It's been a surprise and a disappointment to me that people like you who I felt were intelligent and free-thinking have abandoned their own critical faculties and added to the chorus of flatulent wailing from idiot media commentators and PB's remoaner contingent.
The problem is, if you get the narrative against you, it doesn't matter what your ideas are - everything will be seen as a negative.
Oh, I agree.
That's why attention needs to be turned on the BOE, and any significant reduction in the cost of the Government's fiscal measures needs to be tied to a commensurate reduction in the Banks bond sell off. That coordinated measure would certainly reassure markets.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
Not really. The result of the last 20 years, and especially the last two years, is that governments all over the world have no good options. At least Truss tried to break with the failed consensus, albeit ineptly.
On that basis we should give Corbyn a go next. He would also ineptly break with the failed consensus. Sometimes things are a consensus because they are the least bad option.
The problem is, the consensus has clearly failed... so if you're telling me it's the least bad option, we might as well all give up.
If the Tories want to survive as a going concern they must get rid of Truss and Kwarteng, quickly followed by Braverman, Rees-Mogg and Coffey.
Crown Rishi and bring in a technocratic government, probably with someone like Javid or Hunt in the Exchequer.
Probably not just best for the Tories (who I despise as a cancer), but for the country at this stage, which has become a international whipping boy.
The risk is Farage would then pounce from the right, feeding off what remains even now of the Tory carcass while they win back few if any voters already lost to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
Farage has already attacked Tory MPs criticising the Truss tax cuts while saying the government is still weak on immigration
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
The trouble is that a big fall in house prices combined with higher interest rates doesn't help younger buyers, quite the opposite. What happens is that the mortgage providers get nervous about affordability and negative equity, and require bigger deposits, whilst at the same time sellers don't put their houses on the market. The whole market seizes up, leaving only a few forced sellers whose properties get bought at low prices by people with cash.
This is only true if you take an extremely short-term perspective. The mid-90s was a good time to be a first-time buyer.
The late 80s on the other hand were quite shit. The real value of properties fell by 39% from peak to trough, labour mobility was hammered, and the country endured the second most painful recession of the last 40 years.
The only sensible solution now is a General Election and a fresh start.
I don't like LAB but the Government has lost all credibility.
How do *any* of the potential candidates have any credibility? SUNAK - wanted by MPs but not overwhelmingly, rejected by members (who can be ignored to a point but not entirely, its still their party) MORDAUNT / BADENOCH / BRAVERMAN etc - no mandate at all JOHNSON - hounded out of office, being investigated by parliament, previous low rating record before Truss
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
If she were responsible for house prices falling then she'd deserve a lot of praise indeed.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
How do you know?
I can't think of any other reason why the little shit is still in the country.
So, Kwarteng getting the sack? Last act of a desperate woman if that is what is transpiring. The notion that they are not joined at the hip, that he has somehow forced her into this position is laughable.
That's completely irrelevant if you were a first-time buyer in the 1990s. Your argument that such people were locked out of the market doesn't match the reality of what happened.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
If she were responsible for house prices falling then she'd deserve a lot of praise indeed.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
If she were responsible for house prices falling then she'd deserve a lot of praise indeed.
But she isn't.
She has probably accelerated it. Both in terms of speed of mortgage rate increase and damaging the governments ability to finance any props to support the market. We shall see.
The only sensible solution now is a General Election and a fresh start.
I don't like LAB but the Government has lost all credibility.
How do *any* of the potential candidates have any credibility? SUNAK - wanted by MPs but not overwhelmingly, rejected by members (who can be ignored to a point but not entirely, its still their party) MORDAUNT / BADENOCH / BRAVERMAN etc - no mandate at all JOHNSON - hounded out of office, being investigated by parliament, previous low rating record before Truss
Who cares about their credibility? They do not have any. We just need to vote them out.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
How do you know?
I can't think of any other reason why the little shit is still in the country.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
How do you know?
I can't think of any other reason why the little shit is still in the country.
I take it you also have not had any lucrative job offers from any multi-nationals?
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
The trouble is that a big fall in house prices combined with higher interest rates doesn't help younger buyers, quite the opposite. What happens is that the mortgage providers get nervous about affordability and negative equity, and require bigger deposits, whilst at the same time sellers don't put their houses on the market. The whole market seizes up, leaving only a few forced sellers whose properties get bought at low prices by people with cash.
This is only true if you take an extremely short-term perspective. The mid-90s was a good time to be a first-time buyer.
For those who held on long enough and didn't go bust in the meantime. Prices took nearly a decade to recover from 1989.
Fantastic!
Lets hope that prices are no higher a decade from now than they are now. That would be great.
"Recover" is a meaningless phrase when what you're "recovering" from is an overvalued bubble bursting. If we have a "lost decade" of house prices not growing but routine inflation happening instead, then in a decade from now we'll have the economy moving ideally with a decent housing market accurately priced instead of being a humongous bubble that is making life unaffordable for millions.
People who buy at the top of a bubble have no divine right not to lose their savings.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
How do you know?
I can't think of any other reason why the little shit is still in the country.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
Not really. The result of the last 20 years, and especially the last two years, is that governments all over the world have no good options. At least Truss tried to break with the failed consensus, albeit ineptly.
On that basis we should give Corbyn a go next. He would also ineptly break with the failed consensus. Sometimes things are a consensus because they are the least bad option.
The problem is, the consensus has clearly failed... so if you're telling me it's the least bad option, we might as well all give up.
Should Crystal Palace give up as they cannot compete with Man City? Should they pretend they can compete and play as if they are the better side?
Or try and make gradual boring incremental progress knowing it will be a slog and not Man City like.
The only sensible solution now is a General Election and a fresh start.
I don't like LAB but the Government has lost all credibility.
How do *any* of the potential candidates have any credibility? SUNAK - wanted by MPs but not overwhelmingly, rejected by members (who can be ignored to a point but not entirely, its still their party) MORDAUNT / BADENOCH / BRAVERMAN etc - no mandate at all JOHNSON - hounded out of office, being investigated by parliament, previous low rating record before Truss
Who cares about their credibility? They do not have any. We just need to vote them out.
Which is a lot easier to do if the alternative has any idea what to do.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
If she were responsible for house prices falling then she'd deserve a lot of praise indeed.
But she isn't.
She has probably accelerated it. Both in terms of speed of mortgage rate increase and damaging the governments ability to finance any props to support the market. We shall see.
🤞
If you're right, then credit to her. I hope @CorrectHorseBattery3 and everyone else who's been slamming the Tories for the housing bubble will give credit where credit's due if you're right.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
The destruction of market confidence will be hard to repair.
It's notable that Osborne also cut the additional rate of tax and corporation tax. The difference being he retained the confidence of the markets, because the OBR said he'd balance the books (eventually).
I think any British government for the next several years will now have problems with market trust. Any month where public borrowing is higher than forecast will make people nervous. We'd need a good few years of repairing our reputation in practice to regain trust in our word.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
Not really. The result of the last 20 years, and especially the last two years, is that governments all over the world have no good options. At least Truss tried to break with the failed consensus, albeit ineptly.
On that basis we should give Corbyn a go next. He would also ineptly break with the failed consensus. Sometimes things are a consensus because they are the least bad option.
The problem is, the consensus has clearly failed... so if you're telling me it's the least bad option, we might as well all give up.
Should Crystal Palace give up as they cannot compete with Man City? Should they pretend they can compete and play as if they are the better side?
Or try and make gradual boring incremental progress knowing it will be a slog and not Man City like.
I prefer the latter option.
The failed consensus policies of the last 20 years are more 2002-08 Leeds or Sunderland 2012-20.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
How do you know?
I can't think of any other reason why the little shit is still in the country.
I take it you also have not had any lucrative job offers from any multi-nationals?
You take it correct. I also want to be here though; I've lived overseas for a short spell, never planned to make it long term.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
KT = Karteng / Truss
It is also the name given to the geological layer which marks the eradication of the dinosaurs - the KT boundry. Rather appropriate...?
Not really, since what we're seeing is the assertion of power of the economic dinosaurs who for some reason still believe in the failed policies of the last couple of decades over those who wish to try something different...
The extinction event is on its way. We usually refer to it as an election.
At which the economic dinosaurs who for some reason still believe in the failed policies of the last couple of decades are going to win...
Oh yes - the "New Team" are doing brilliantly. Not.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
It's not a myth. House prices were probably going to peak and drift downwards as mortgage costs ticked up. Now - because of her immaturity and recklessness - there's a fair chance of a sharp plummet as costs rocket. This multiplies the pain and for no reason other than political vanity.
You think the Bank of England could have got away without following the Fed on interest rates? How low would the pound go in this scenario?
I think monetary policy has to tighten and stay there for quite a while because inflation is the number one danger. We need rate rises and reversal of QE. This will (inter alia) depress house prices, which as it should be. But none of this excuses what Truss has done. She got high on her own supply and the moment she got in started throwing around unfunded & unaudited, inflationary tax cuts, going way off piste, essentially lurching around and chanting to the Markets, "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough", and so they are, and it was totally unnecessary.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
The destruction of market confidence will be hard to repair.
It's notable that Osborne also cut the additional rate of tax and corporation tax. The difference being he retained the confidence of the markets, because the OBR said he'd balance the books (eventually).
I think any British government for the next several years will now have problems with market trust. Any month where public borrowing is higher than forecast will make people nervous. We'd need a good few years of repairing our reputation in practice to regain trust in our word.
Does anyone else miss the halcyon days of the Long Term Economic Plan?
That's completely irrelevant if you were a first-time buyer in the 1990s. Your argument that such people were locked out of the market doesn't match the reality of what happened.
Yes, it does, I remember it very well.
Your memory is playing tricks on you. Over 20% of FTBs were below 25, and they didn't require above average earnings to do it. That's unthinkable for most people in today's market.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
Not really. The result of the last 20 years, and especially the last two years, is that governments all over the world have no good options. At least Truss tried to break with the failed consensus, albeit ineptly.
On that basis we should give Corbyn a go next. He would also ineptly break with the failed consensus. Sometimes things are a consensus because they are the least bad option.
The problem is, the consensus has clearly failed... so if you're telling me it's the least bad option, we might as well all give up.
Should Crystal Palace give up as they cannot compete with Man City? Should they pretend they can compete and play as if they are the better side?
Or try and make gradual boring incremental progress knowing it will be a slog and not Man City like.
I prefer the latter option.
The failed consensus policies of the last 20 years are more 2002-08 Leeds or Sunderland 2012-20.
I am not sure there is a consensus to be honest. There was no consensus over austerity or Brexit for example. There is no consensus between young and old.
Politics over that time has failed as it has been increasingly short termist and cynically targeting just enough voters to win rather than thinking about the medium term for most.
The only sensible solution now is a General Election and a fresh start.
I don't like LAB but the Government has lost all credibility.
How do *any* of the potential candidates have any credibility? SUNAK - wanted by MPs but not overwhelmingly, rejected by members (who can be ignored to a point but not entirely, its still their party) MORDAUNT / BADENOCH / BRAVERMAN etc - no mandate at all JOHNSON - hounded out of office, being investigated by parliament, previous low rating record before Truss
Who cares about their credibility? They do not have any. We just need to vote them out.
Which is a lot easier to do if the alternative has any idea what to do.
If the "alternive" cost their plans, run them by the OBR and the Treasury mandarins and then stick to them, the markets will be a lot happier and things will calm down. Even a poor plan is better than the "No Plan, Just Do It" method employed by KT.
The current bunch seem to think that their wishes and dreams can be made real without adverse consequence.
I’m not entirely sure what the difference is between a second new PM in a Parliament and the first as far as a mandate is concerned - if you’re worried about the lack of mandate from another PM, surely you should be as equally worried about the lack of mandate during the first change.
A “Unity” PM coming in to deliver on the 2019 manifesto will have much more of a mandate, conversely, than Liz Truss whose sole purpose seems to be to rip it up.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
If she were responsible for house prices falling then she'd deserve a lot of praise indeed.
But she isn't.
She has probably accelerated it. Both in terms of speed of mortgage rate increase and damaging the governments ability to finance any props to support the market. We shall see.
🤞
If you're right, then credit to her. I hope @CorrectHorseBattery3 and everyone else who's been slamming the Tories for the housing bubble will give credit where credit's due if you're right.
To get credit she would have to be wanting to achieve the outcome, rather than stumbling on an outcome.
That's completely irrelevant if you were a first-time buyer in the 1990s. Your argument that such people were locked out of the market doesn't match the reality of what happened.
Yes, it does, I remember it very well.
Your memory is about as accurate as the Four Yorkshiremen sketch then.
In the year 1995-96 there were 922,000 First Time Buyers, far more than there has been in any year since.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
How do you know?
I can't think of any other reason why the little shit is still in the country.
Comments
I asked him if he knew why the chancellor wasn’t in attendance.
“That’s a question for the chancellor” he told me.
https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1580572086581760008
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRq1Ksh-32g
Are we sure there isn't a Tesla AI at the helm?
I listened to Lisa Nandy on the nurses demands for a 15% pay rise and she simply had no answer
Asking for a friend....
But even though the economy has been heading for the rocks anyway for a while, that doesn't excuse Team KT making it worse.
What they have done is much more about exposing the shitty situation we were in than actually causing it.
The cut to the basic rate of income tax and NI and Stamp Duty however was popular with voters and the cut to corporation tax with Tory voters. Increasing those would hit both ordinary voters and businesses making the situation potentially worse
If the Tories want to survive as a going concern they must get rid of Truss and Kwarteng, quickly followed by Braverman, Rees-Mogg and Coffey.
Crown Rishi and bring in a technocratic government, probably with someone like Javid or Hunt in the Exchequer.
Probably not just best for the Tories (who I despise as a cancer), but for the country at this stage, which has become a international whipping boy.
But Conservative Party members, addicted to being told porkies by Boris and Vote Leave, wanted to continue with the fantasy cakeism. Many of them still do.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-13/can-liz-truss-survive?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=221013&utm_campaign=author_15116245&leadSource=uverify wall
I want the Country to survive.
Of course the new government showing itself to be equally irresponsible with fiscal policy didn't help but the Bank knew that when they made their decision. One of the idiots on the MPC voted for only 0.25% of a rise. 3 recognised the danger but were outvoted by the Bank representatives including the Governor. It was reckless. The refusal to correct that error with an emergency increase since was and is arrogant. For all Kwarteng's stupidity the behaviour of the Bank has been the larger cause of any additional instability in financial markets beyond what everyone else has also suffered.
But what is certain is that the job is absolutely beyond the competence of Liz Truss.
I'd say Hunt as COE, Redwood to the Treasury, possibly Kemi too, both in junior roles, to reassure that Hunt wasn't going to go rogue.
https://twitter.com/juliansmithuk/status/1580574612030517249
The level of snark is superb
*However*, there are a set of prices which are comparable between countries, that indicate the confidence that Mr Market has that a government/country will control both deficits and inflation.
It's called the ten year government bond yield. (Or even more so, the thirty year one.)
Let's look at the one month change in yields around the world. 10 years first:
US - 3.53% to 4.00%
Germany- 1.60% to 2.31%
UK - 3.21% to 4.24%
Now 30 years:
US - 3.49% to 3.94%
Germany- 1.80% to 2.31%
UK - 3.55% to 4.59%
Most countries have seen long term interest rates increase by 0.5%. In the UK, it's by just over 1%.
In other words, blame should be roughly evenly distributed between global market forces (inflation and a desire from investors for more yield) and a specific increase in the UK risk premium.
The UK risk premium increase however, sits firmly in the blame column.
Farage has already attacked Tory MPs criticising the Truss tax cuts while saying the government is still weak on immigration
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1580451754160054272?s=20&t=17S_sIn4_GcqGoAoHnqFnQ
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1580232877375037440?s=20&t=17S_sIn4_GcqGoAoHnqFnQ
I dunno. Maybe 1 - 1.5% growth is what Western economies can do for the next few decades. That's still doubling over a lifetime. Lots of other questions become harder for sure, but not everything is a conspiracy.
That's why attention needs to be turned on the BOE, and any significant reduction in the cost of the Government's fiscal measures needs to be tied to a commensurate reduction in the Banks bond sell off. That coordinated measure would certainly reassure markets.
Nigel and REFUK have no traction in polling and their ideologies have been rather discredited by events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgsmTdAzGIA
The state of it…
SUNAK - wanted by MPs but not overwhelmingly, rejected by members (who can be ignored to a point but not entirely, its still their party)
MORDAUNT / BADENOCH / BRAVERMAN etc - no mandate at all
JOHNSON - hounded out of office, being investigated by parliament, previous low rating record before Truss
But she isn't.
Lets hope that prices are no higher a decade from now than they are now. That would be great.
"Recover" is a meaningless phrase when what you're "recovering" from is an overvalued bubble bursting. If we have a "lost decade" of house prices not growing but routine inflation happening instead, then in a decade from now we'll have the economy moving ideally with a decent housing market accurately priced instead of being a humongous bubble that is making life unaffordable for millions.
People who buy at the top of a bubble have no divine right not to lose their savings.
Or try and make gradual boring incremental progress knowing it will be a slog and not Man City like.
I prefer the latter option.
If you're right, then credit to her. I hope @CorrectHorseBattery3 and everyone else who's been slamming the Tories for the housing bubble will give credit where credit's due if you're right.
It's notable that Osborne also cut the additional rate of tax and corporation tax. The difference being he retained the confidence of the markets, because the OBR said he'd balance the books (eventually).
I think any British government for the next several years will now have problems with market trust. Any month where public borrowing is higher than forecast will make people nervous. We'd need a good few years of repairing our reputation in practice to regain trust in our word.
Politics over that time has failed as it has been increasingly short termist and cynically targeting just enough voters to win rather than thinking about the medium term for most.
The current bunch seem to think that their wishes and dreams can be made real without adverse consequence.
A “Unity” PM coming in to deliver on the 2019 manifesto will have much more of a mandate, conversely, than Liz Truss whose sole purpose seems to be to rip it up.
In the year 1995-96 there were 922,000 First Time Buyers, far more than there has been in any year since.