Q: But Chancellor, you have a situation where, you've come here to discuss important issues back home at number 10 there are discussions filleting the fiscal statement that you made just a few weeks ago that must be humiliating?
INBOX: Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed its odds in half to 8-1 (from 16-1) on Boris Johnson making a return to Number 10 and replacing Liz Truss as prime minister.
I think thats close to value- he is the only tory capable of turning it around and his sin -binning will enable him to say he has done his penance and has a fresh start
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
It's the popular name for the Cretaceous - Paleogene extinction event. Which is somehow quite appropriate.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Except that she seems to possess the "Tory Tin Ear" to an impressive extent. The last few Tory PMs - May, Boris and now Truss - all seem to have had it, but Ms Truss has raised it to an artform. Combine this with her, err..., ability (???) to follow any policy that she deems is popular, even it if contradicts yesterday's policy, and you have a recipe for disaster on a scale unprecedented in UK political history.
Definitely. They don't have the public, markets or party behind them, therefore the gamble cannot pay off. They will have to u turn and, as such, will also need to be removed as they are unable to proceed with their programme
INBOX: Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed its odds in half to 8-1 (from 16-1) on Boris Johnson making a return to Number 10 and replacing Liz Truss as prime minister.
I think thats close to value- he is the only tory capable of turning it around and his sin -binning will enable him to say he has done his penance and has a fresh start
And the 148 Tory MPs who voted no confidence in him a few months ago?
Jut imagine how many drafts of it he will have got through by then.... Lol!
I’m in prole class. Free flight (writing for the Gazette) but prole
I thought about upgrading myself - it’s long - but I checked the prices. £7000 extra for a one way business ticket
Utterly insane. I’m a fairly affluent man but fuck that
If you're pissed as a fart it doesn't matter what class you're in.
Finally. You understand me
And I have an empty seat next to me in a half empty flight so this is basically Biz anyway. And I’ve saved £7000
👍👍
are the lovely air hostesses looking after you Leon?
I’m flying… United
😶
Once had a United stewardess pour champagne all over me on a flight. I think it was an accident.
Then gave me a bottle of champagne as compensation.
Then offered to come drink it with me.....
Many years ago flying Sydney to Auckland the plane was only half full. We were offered red, white or sparkling wine; my wife and I chose the sparkling. 15 minutes later the steward came back to us and said nobody else wants it I can't recork it, so you can have the rest of it!
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
KT = Karteng / Truss
It is also the name given to the geological layer which marks the eradication of the dinosaurs - the KT boundry. Rather appropriate...?
Not really, since what we're seeing is the assertion of power of the economic dinosaurs who for some reason still believe in the failed policies of the last couple of decades over those who wish to try something different...
The extinction event is on its way. We usually refer to it as an election.
INBOX: Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed its odds in half to 8-1 (from 16-1) on Boris Johnson making a return to Number 10 and replacing Liz Truss as prime minister.
I think thats close to value- he is the only tory capable of turning it around and his sin -binning will enable him to say he has done his penance and has a fresh start
And the 148 Tory MPs who voted no confidence in him a few months ago?
well i think it was mainly because of the covid rule breaking for which he has now served his "time"
INBOX: Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed its odds in half to 8-1 (from 16-1) on Boris Johnson making a return to Number 10 and replacing Liz Truss as prime minister.
I think thats close to value- he is the only tory capable of turning it around and his sin -binning will enable him to say he has done his penance and has a fresh start
And the 148 Tory MPs who voted no confidence in him a few months ago?
well i think it was mainly because of the covid rule breaking for which he has now served his "time"
I'm not sure he'd want to come back at this point. Maybe as a saviour in opposition but he'll just lead them into a marginally less severe defeat if he returned.
Can anyone really imagine Liz Truss leading the tories into an election? No , so pick the best tory to do that and not sure I can see beyond Johnson for that candidate. Johnson would make it more a red wall non-woke /metro lib war and that is the tories best chance.
INBOX: Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed its odds in half to 8-1 (from 16-1) on Boris Johnson making a return to Number 10 and replacing Liz Truss as prime minister.
I think thats close to value- he is the only tory capable of turning it around and his sin -binning will enable him to say he has done his penance and has a fresh start
And the 148 Tory MPs who voted no confidence in him a few months ago?
The grass wasn't exactly greener on the other side for them, was it?
US mortgage rates surge to highest in 20 years at 6.92%
Thats before this months 0.75/1% hike
There is a lot of pain coming for a lot of people and a house price crash and negative equity which last time lasted 10 years
That’s assuming central banks don’t lose control of the money supply - in which case, mortgage holders are the winners, so long as people keep their jobs and get inflation adjusted pay rises.
But yeah, most likely outcome is the BoE matching the Fed, lots of pain for mortgage holders - and an inevitable recession.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
I said it right at the start. Truss should sack Kwasi, publicly and noisily, to save her job.
It might not be enough, but it's a necessary step.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
KT = Karteng / Truss
It is also the name given to the geological layer which marks the eradication of the dinosaurs - the KT boundry. Rather appropriate...?
Not really, since what we're seeing is the assertion of power of the economic dinosaurs who for some reason still believe in the failed policies of the last couple of decades over those who wish to try something different...
The extinction event is on its way. We usually refer to it as an election.
At which the economic dinosaurs who for some reason still believe in the failed policies of the last couple of decades are going to win...
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
Kamikwazi [edit sp] + Truss. But also K is the standard geological abbreviation for Cretaceous - and the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary [slightly obsolete terminology] is when the giant meteor hit and the Deccan Traps blew and the ruling reptiles were wiped out. So it's a double pun on mass extinction level eventry.
Edit: I think RP thought of it - but I may be wrong. Credit is where it sure is due, anyway.
Karteng's position is absurd within the government. In Washington, he's just said "I’ll be coming out with a statement on 31 October and I’m not going to preempt that", but back in the UK the PM is having crisis talks about what to do about the mini-budget disaster, and every man and his dog associated with the government are pre-empting like mad. Very hard to see how he survives, and in any case Liz T needs a fall guy.
There's a way in which Kwarteng's departure might be of help. He'd have to go entirely of his own volition, and it would be helpful if in his resignation he turned attention where it belongs now, on the increasingly mad behaviour of the Bank of England, helping to pave the way for a change there too. He could be offered a peerage to do that.
The mini budget could then be reviewed, but should only be done as part of a negotiated process with the bank, so that if the budget reduces the fiscal pressure, the bank agrees to ease the monetary pressure. This is fair and right. It's a process of give and take, not the Bank telling the Government what's what - that shouldn't be acceptable to any democrat.
In terms of how then to change the budget, the only thing that can affect the cost of the thing significantly is reviewing the energy price freeze, and a system based on bands of power usage (first x units subsidised at a high level, with however many bands of reducing subsidy are appropriate, like income tax, is worth exploring and would save a great deal). Then Truss can afford all the other items, and I think it's important to democracy that most of them go through.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
INBOX: Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed its odds in half to 8-1 (from 16-1) on Boris Johnson making a return to Number 10 and replacing Liz Truss as prime minister.
I think thats close to value- he is the only tory capable of turning it around and his sin -binning will enable him to say he has done his penance and has a fresh start
And the 148 Tory MPs who voted no confidence in him a few months ago?
well i think it was mainly because of the covid rule breaking for which he has now served his "time"
The rule breaking and lying showed he was unsuited to the role of PM. It's not a case of a rap on the knuckles and back you come. Hard to believe that the current idiot or the previous liar are the only options the Tories can offer.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
US mortgage rates surge to highest in 20 years at 6.92%
Definitely the fault of the mini budget. Sack Truss and Kwarteng.
We had enough of this "reasoning" under Boris. Other countries lost trade so Brexit is perfect. Other countries got Covid so track and trace works. Other countries have economic problems so KT is Maynard Keynes.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
Yes. Who leads the Tories at the next General Election is of secondary importance to the urgent need now for a competent Prime Minister and Chancellor whom the markets trust.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
Kamikwazi [edit sp] + Truss. But also K is the standard geological abbreviation for Cretaceous - and the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary [slightly obsolete terminology] is when the giant meteor hit and the Deccan Traps blew and the ruling reptiles were wiped out. So it's a double pun on mass extinction level eventry.
Edit: I think RP thought of it - but I may be wrong. Credit is where it sure is due, anyway.
US mortgage rates surge to highest in 20 years at 6.92%
Definitely the fault of the mini budget. Sack Truss and Kwarteng.
We had enough of this "reasoning" under Boris. Other countries lost trade so Brexit is perfect. Other countries got Covid so track and trace works. Other countries have economic problems so KT is Maynard Keynes.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
Hi Richard, you are one of the erstwhile Tories I'm canvassing for my straw poll. Will you be joining Eagles and Max and voting Labour next time?
INBOX: Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed its odds in half to 8-1 (from 16-1) on Boris Johnson making a return to Number 10 and replacing Liz Truss as prime minister.
I think thats close to value- he is the only tory capable of turning it around and his sin -binning will enable him to say he has done his penance and has a fresh start
And the 148 Tory MPs who voted no confidence in him a few months ago?
well i think it was mainly because of the covid rule breaking for which he has now served his "time"
US mortgage rates surge to highest in 20 years at 6.92%
Definitely the fault of the mini budget. Sack Truss and Kwarteng.
We had enough of this "reasoning" under Boris. Other countries lost trade so Brexit is perfect. Other countries got Covid so track and trace works. Other countries have economic problems so KT is Maynard Keynes.
Who is KT?
Truss and Kwarteng but not necessarily in that order. It is a geology pun as explained elsewhere on this thread.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
He was crap the first time, why would they be stupid enough to shoot themselves in the foot again. Mind you they put a complete idiot in to replace him so there is no knowing how stupid these people really are.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
Truss can't sack Kwarteng because, ideologically, they are joined at the hip. His budget, their joint ideas. It's either none out or both out. A bit like Blair and Brown in the early years. I guess Kwarteng could resign, but that seems unlikely.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
To be honest I had assumed Rishi would come back as COE in any “unity” cabinet. I think PM is a stretch (though if he calms the markets he could be setting it up for a run at LOTO next time).
I'm quite upset that he's clearly had no lucrative job offers from any tech multi-nationals. Perhaps their standards are higher than the average Tory MP.
Rishi is not higher than the average Tory MP though....
The corporation tax change seems the easiest to reverse and would save 18 billion pounds . All u-turns come with huge political cost and of course Truss will have her comments replayed re why she wanted that initial change but anything that looks like a cut to services will go down much worse with the public .
All options are bad for Truss and Kwarteng and that’s of their own making so they can just suck it up .
Jut imagine how many drafts of it he will have got through by then.... Lol!
I’m in prole class. Free flight (writing for the Gazette) but prole
I thought about upgrading myself - it’s long - but I checked the prices. £7000 extra for a one way business ticket
Utterly insane. I’m a fairly affluent man but fuck that
If you're pissed as a fart it doesn't matter what class you're in.
Finally. You understand me
And I have an empty seat next to me in a half empty flight so this is basically Biz anyway. And I’ve saved £7000
👍👍
are the lovely air hostesses looking after you Leon?
I’m flying… United
😶
Once had a United stewardess pour champagne all over me on a flight. I think it was an accident.
Then gave me a bottle of champagne as compensation.
Then offered to come drink it with me.....
Many years ago flying Sydney to Auckland the plane was only half full. We were offered red, white or sparkling wine; my wife and I chose the sparkling. 15 minutes later the steward came back to us and said nobody else wants it I can't recork it, so you can have the rest of it!
OKC, you should hav esaid we will have one of each please
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
Truss can't sack Kwarteng because, ideologically, they are joined at the hip. His budget, their joint ideas. It's either none out or both out. A bit like Blair and Brown in the early years. I guess Kwarteng could resign, but that seems unlikely.
It won’t be Boris. There’s going to be enough residual opposition to Boris to deny him a coronation. And the only way there can be a leadership change is through a coronation. It cannot go to the members.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
The urgent need is to stop market panic. That means Rishi at Number 10 or 11.
He was crap the first time, why would they be stupid enough to shoot themselves in the foot again. Mind you they put a complete idiot in to replace him so there is no knowing how stupid these people really are.
Rishi has market credibility. Whether he might impoverish us all is of lesser concern right now. During the leadership campaign, he told Liz Truss exactly what would happen if she went ahead. She did, and it did.
Does that mean that the 40 new hospitals won’t happen now if they cut capital spending ! Or to be more exact the refurbishments peddled as new hospitals .
Wouldn't have existed in reality even if they had happened (if you see what I mean). But is that a real saving? My head hurts, so I will go and do the washing-up.
Truss can't sack Kwarteng because, ideologically, they are joined at the hip. His budget, their joint ideas. It's either none out or both out. A bit like Blair and Brown in the early years. I guess Kwarteng could resign, but that seems unlikely.
Logically yes but ditching Kwasi is worth a punt. LizT could use Suella upsetting India as a face-saving excuse to reshuffle the Great Offices of State. Truss might think it worth a punt to spend at least one Christmas at Chequers.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
Some would be pleased to see house prices fall but not mortgage holders
With the US just announcing their highest mortgage rates in 20 years at 6.92% I assume the same will happen in the US
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
Hi Richard, you are one of the erstwhile Tories I'm canvassing for my straw poll. Will you be joining Eagles and Max and voting Labour next time?
No, I'll be voting LibDem, but that's partly because of a particular LibDem candidate. However, if I was in a Lab-Con marginal and if the Lab candidate was sane, I'd probably vote Labour. As this stage I would far prefer a Labour or Labour-led government to the sad husk of what was once the Conservative Party.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Yep, but that was obvious right from the start and it is amazing that she didn't see it coming.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Very true but Truss/Kwarteng actions have have added 1 per cent or so
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
News from my Cons high up. The one who said her premiership would be a disaster back in July and who said she wouldn't survive. They still think she won't survive. Nor will there be a GE. Don't see this last bit tbh but that's the thinking.
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
The least worst option, as it has been from the very beginning, is to reverse everything they have done so far, up to and including cabinet appointments.
Jut imagine how many drafts of it he will have got through by then.... Lol!
I’m in prole class. Free flight (writing for the Gazette) but prole
I thought about upgrading myself - it’s long - but I checked the prices. £7000 extra for a one way business ticket
Utterly insane. I’m a fairly affluent man but fuck that
If you're pissed as a fart it doesn't matter what class you're in.
Finally. You understand me
And I have an empty seat next to me in a half empty flight so this is basically Biz anyway. And I’ve saved £7000
👍👍
are the lovely air hostesses looking after you Leon?
I’m flying… United
😶
Once had a United stewardess pour champagne all over me on a flight. I think it was an accident.
Then gave me a bottle of champagne as compensation.
Then offered to come drink it with me.....
Many years ago flying Sydney to Auckland the plane was only half full. We were offered red, white or sparkling wine; my wife and I chose the sparkling. 15 minutes later the steward came back to us and said nobody else wants it I can't recork it, so you can have the rest of it!
OKC, you should hav esaid we will have one of each please
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
I said it right at the start. Truss should sack Kwasi, publicly and noisily, to save her job.
It might not be enough, but it's a necessary step.
She can't, that would be publicly acknowledging that she was wrong to put him in place, and that most of his economical agenda (which is her agenda but with a lot of his shitey twists and poor presentation) is wrong. I know ypu believe that to be true (I disagree) but either way it's impossible politically. He can throw himself on his sword though.
But who would be Chancellor? It can't be Rishi, he wouldn't accept (thank God) and if he did, he'd run a take down Liz operation from within Government. It can't be Penny because the media would have her for breakfast. I like John Redwood, and would like to see him as a Treasury Minister of some description but I'm not daft enough to think he'd be accepted as CoE. I think maybe someone like Jeremy Hunt. Clapped out as a leadership contender, but experienced and reassuring. He is totally ideologically opposed to Truss's agenda, but so was Kwarteng.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Possibly, but more gradually. It's not a myth really. The mortgage lenders rushed to change their offers precipitously as a direct response to the market's response to the special financial operation, unless I'm mistaken, over a period of a few days rather than gradually.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
You know, I still think that had she not blown her credibility up in her first 3 weeks, she would still be getting a fair hearing even in the face of the (inevitable) rise in interest rates and mortgage costs. The public knew she was taking office at a difficult time economically. If she’d had made smarter decisions to get the economy through the difficult winter rather than going full crazy bonkers… well, she might have bought herself a ticket to leading the Tories into the next GE.
The problem is she not only is seen to be economically illiterate but also having made the problem WORSE…
Zugzwang is a perfect term for where Truss and Kwarteng find themselves .
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
The least worst option, as it has been from the very beginning, is to reverse everything they have done so far, up to and including cabinet appointments.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
Some would be pleased to see house prices fall but not mortgage holders
With the US just announcing their highest mortgage rates in 20 years at 6.92% I assume the same will happen in the US
I think that depends on your attitude to your house. I would be very happy to see the price of my house fall. It has no value in and of itself to me because I never intend to sell. So if it was part of a larger national relevelling of house prices which allowed younger buyers to get on the market then I see that as a big win. Obviously the causes of the price fall would bother me - higher mortgage rates and a screwed economy. But the simple fact of the value of my house falling really doesn't bother me at all. It is a place to live, not an investment.
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
🏠NEW🏠 Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla - Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales. - Sellers cutting asking prices. - Every region of GB affected. Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
It's fascinating to see a myth be created in real time. Truss will forever be held responsible for interest rates going up and for house prices falling, but this was going to happen whatever she did.
Yep, but that was obvious right from the start and it is amazing that she didn't see it coming.
Lends credibility to the view that she actually just isn’t cut out for the job, TBH.
IMPORTANT: UK mortgage rates were climbing pre-mini-budget. & they’re rising nearly everywhere else in world. But the SPEED with which the UK’s rates were climbing suddenly accelerated post-mini-budget, amid the chaos in UK govt bond markets. Look at how this line steepened 👇 https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580572714267422720/photo/1
I think the likelihood is that we'll get the screeching U-turn, perhaps with a side dish of Kwarteng's head, but it won't satisfy the markets and the volatility will continue. That's because, as @DavidHenigUK has just tweeted:
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
I said it right at the start. Truss should sack Kwasi, publicly and noisily, to save her job.
It might not be enough, but it's a necessary step.
She can't, that would be publicly acknowledging that she was wrong to put him in place, and that most of his economical agenda (which is her agenda but with a lot of his shitey twists and poor presentation) is wrong. I know ypu believe that to be true (I disagree) but either way it's impossible politically. He can throw himself on his sword though.
But who would be Chancellor? It can't be Rishi, he wouldn't accept (thank God) and if he did, he'd run a take down Liz operation from within Government. It can't be Penny because the media would have her for breakfast. I like John Redwood, and would like to see him as a Treasury Minister of some description but I'm not daft enough to think he'd be accepted as CoE. I think maybe someone like Jeremy Hunt. Clapped out as a leadership contender, but experienced and reassuring. He is totally ideologically opposed to Truss's agenda, but so was Kwarteng.
Comments
Most small businesses were not affected by the increase anyway
Truss is not any good at politics is she
KK: I speak to No 10 to the PM all the time…
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1580557298610892803
Which is somehow quite appropriate.
Then gave me a bottle of champagne as compensation.
Then offered to come drink it with me.....
US mortgage rates surge to highest in 20 years at 6.92%
But yeah, most likely outcome is the BoE matching the Fed, lots of pain for mortgage holders - and an inevitable recession.
For the same reason it won’t be Rishi - too much residual distaste from the die hard Boris fans.
At this stage I can’t really see past Penny, but on the understanding she is leading a cabinet drawn from all wings of the Party and pledging to get as much of the 2019 manifesto done as possible before the next GE. Even then the last contest suggested she had some enemies, but suspect they could be persuaded that needs must, given she doesn’t have the baggage with the public.
May and Gove were the other options in my head. But I’m not sure the Tories could get past the slightly comical notion of all lining up behind Theresa May again (and Theresa May running an election campaign….). Gove is also one with a lot of enemies. Both, however, would be good candidates for senior roles in a unity cabinet.
"it isn't specifically a u-turn the markets are looking for, but some sign of leadership from the Prime Minister and senior Ministers - that they know what is happening and can plot a vaguely sane plan to get out of the mess."
It's hard to see from here how the current government, or even a reshuffled version of the current government, can get a grip of events again and regain market trust.
So it’s not as simple as just adding 0.75/1 to current rates and assuming thats somewhere around what the new rate will be.
I don't like LAB but the Government has lost all credibility.
It might not be enough, but it's a necessary step.
EDIT - also makes the point that they are glued together. She can't just fire the man, they are politically joined at the hip.
The mini budget could then be reviewed, but should only be done as part of a negotiated process with the bank, so that if the budget reduces the fiscal pressure, the bank agrees to ease the monetary pressure. This is fair and right. It's a process of give and take, not the Bank telling the Government what's what - that shouldn't be acceptable to any democrat.
In terms of how then to change the budget, the only thing that can affect the cost of the thing significantly is reviewing the energy price freeze, and a system based on bands of power usage (first x units subsidised at a high level, with however many bands of reducing subsidy are appropriate, like income tax, is worth exploring and would save a great deal). Then Truss can afford all the other items, and I think it's important to democracy that most of them go through.
Hard to believe that the current idiot or the previous liar are the only options the Tories can offer.
Step forward T May...
DHSC is one of the biggest capital-spending departments, so that could spell lower NHS capital spending - which risks making this problem worse. [1/4] https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1580481549740699648
This is the worst duo since Sam Fox & Mick Fleetwood
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1580565978399707138
https://twitter.com/huffpostuk/status/1580564374930206721
All options are bad for Truss and Kwarteng and that’s of their own making so they can just suck it up .
Interesting stats from @richard_donnell at Zoopla
- Housing market demand down 20%-plus in past weeks. 15% fewer sales.
- Sellers cutting asking prices.
- Every region of GB affected.
Now seeing first compelling signs of mini-budget/interest rate impact on housing market https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580567934250123264/photo/1
With the US just announcing their highest mortgage rates in 20 years at 6.92% I assume the same will happen in the US
They have to do something and will suffer whatever they do . It’s quite extraordinary how they’ve managed to back themselves into a corner with no good options .
Or, perhaps, just plain old "fucked".
Completely reverse the budget.
Sack Kwasi. And Braverman. And Coffey.
Appoint Rishi. And Hunt. And Gove.
Live to fight another day.
Or resign. Today. And call an election.
But who would be Chancellor? It can't be Rishi, he wouldn't accept (thank God) and if he did, he'd run a take down Liz operation from within Government. It can't be Penny because the media would have her for breakfast. I like John Redwood, and would like to see him as a Treasury Minister of some description but I'm not daft enough to think he'd be accepted as CoE. I think maybe someone like Jeremy Hunt. Clapped out as a leadership contender, but experienced and reassuring. He is totally ideologically opposed to Truss's agenda, but so was Kwarteng.
The problem is she not only is seen to be economically illiterate but also having made the problem WORSE…
I realise that any people will be concerned because for many reasons they might have to sell - job, family size etc. But I can only give a personal view on this one.
UK mortgage rates were climbing pre-mini-budget.
& they’re rising nearly everywhere else in world.
But the SPEED with which the UK’s rates were climbing suddenly accelerated post-mini-budget, amid the chaos in UK govt bond markets.
Look at how this line steepened
👇 https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580572714267422720/photo/1