If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Oh FGS they need to stop messing around. Scrap the budget. Go back to previous plans + price cap. October statement to focus solely on how you pay for the price cap. If you want to be clever and revisit things do it in the March budget*
*preferably delivered by a new chancellor under a new PM.
American markets pricing in a 13% chance (and increasing) apparently of a 1% base rate rise in the US. Would be catastrophic for us and the EU and completely gut the US housing market
Well ours are meant be doubling by some time next year anyway aren't they?
Wow. I always saw him as more of a Waitrose/M&S kinda guy. If the cost of living crisis has reduced Leon to shopping in Iceland, imagine how poor the rest of us must be!
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
Surely it's not hard. Imagine the markets with Truss and Kwarteng "in office but out of control" and then imagine something not as bad.
She's already got the pound heading to parity with the seashell in four weeks.
Both pound and stockmarket have rallied - is that the U-turn, or the nasty US inflation figures ?
American markets pricing in a 13% chance (and increasing) apparently of a 1% base rate rise in the US. Would be catastrophic for us and the EU and completely gut the US housing market
In America the decision is to accept a recession in order to put inflation back in its box. And I agree with this. Recessions come and go, hyper-inflation destroys society.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
Surely it's not hard. Imagine the markets with Truss and Kwarteng "in office but out of control" and then imagine something not as bad.
She's already got the pound heading to parity with the seashell in four weeks.
It's currently the Euro which is being put through the mincer. Sterling is up 1.5c against it and it is down to 96.5c against the almighty dollar.
Oh FGS they need to stop messing around. Scrap the budget. Go back to previous plans + price cap. October statement to focus solely on how you pay for the price cap. If you want to be clever and revisit things do it in the March budget*
*preferably delivered by a new chancellor under a new PM.
Better still, the markets have now priced this in. If she doesn't do what is being leaked then the reaction will be furious...
A cabinet minister until a few weeks ago has just told me @trussliz ‘has unleashed hell on this country.’ The language being used by senior Conservatives, the incredulity, the cold fury is like nothing I’ve seen in decades of covering UK politics https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1580550895267635200
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
Surely it's not hard. Imagine the markets with Truss and Kwarteng "in office but out of control" and then imagine something not as bad.
She's already got the pound heading to parity with the seashell in four weeks.
Both pound and stockmarket have rallied - is that the U-turn, or the nasty US inflation figures ?
The FTSE fell over 2% from HoD on the news of US inflation and is currently down 1.25% Pound is well off highs of the day
Imagine being a newspaper editor who supported Brexit. You’re about to lose your second PM in a few weeks… who you gonna blame? Bank of England? Yes! Wokeness? Maybe. Brexit? Never! Yourself? https://twitter.com/davidyelland/status/1580549109282263040
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Starmer is going to be given lots of room by the public. Expect lots of tax increases when he comes in.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Karteng's position is absurd within the government. In Washington, he's just said "I’ll be coming out with a statement on 31 October and I’m not going to preempt that", but back in the UK the PM is having crisis talks about what to do about the mini-budget disaster, and every man and his dog associated with the government are pre-empting like mad. Very hard to see how he survives, and in any case Liz T needs a fall guy.
Michigan county hires ‘Stop the Steal’ ringleader to recruit poll workers https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/12/michigan-county-hires-stop-the-steal-ringleader-to-recruit-poll-workers-00061564 A social media influencer who implored a crowd to “storm the gates” of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, has been hired by a Michigan county clerk as the “talent development specialist” working with poll workers in one of the battleground state’s biggest swing regions, according to an email obtained by POLITICO...
John Major is probably the one Tory delighted with how Truss is doing.
At the moment on current polls she will easily take his crown as having led the Conservatives to their worst general election defeat since universal suffrage
Latest state of government communication: asked if she can guarantee there won’t be any more changes to tax plans in mini budget, Chloe Smith, the work and pensions secretary, says: “ I'm not in a position to answer your question this afternoon” https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1580552137255186432
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
Surely it's not hard. Imagine the markets with Truss and Kwarteng "in office but out of control" and then imagine something not as bad.
She's already got the pound heading to parity with the seashell in four weeks.
Both pound and stockmarket have rallied - is that the U-turn, or the nasty US inflation figures ?
The FTSE fell over 2% from HoD on the news of US inflation and is currently down 1.25% Pound is well off highs of the day
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
American markets pricing in a 13% chance (and increasing) apparently of a 1% base rate rise in the US. Would be catastrophic for us and the EU and completely gut the US housing market
In America the decision is to accept a recession in order to put inflation back in its box. And I agree with this. Recessions come and go, hyper-inflation destroys society.
Except for the Joe Biden multi trillion dollar massively inflationary anti inflation bill And core inflation continues to rise, bond markets are in a state of rout. Powell is going to impoverish us all.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
He’s right. She should resign with dignity. Go down with grace
One decent speech and then she’s a footnote
The times are cruel. But at least she can say “I was prime minister”
Would you pay her 150 grand for an after-dinner speech?
Perhaps she could go down the Tommy Cooper route and make a virtue out of incompetence- Tommy got a lot more popular when he stopped doing serious magic and pretended to mess things up
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
So, in hindsight those parties weren't that bad were they? And at least he knew he was lying, and could keep a straight face about it. And although he had a series of muppets in his Cabinet things could have been worse, apparently.
Damn.
I think one of the reasons we are here is because the parties were that bad, and Johnson initially escaped censure for lying to Parliament about them.
That's the only way I can explain why Truss and Kwarteng thought it was okay to have a budget statement without the OBR forecasts. They thought they could get away with quite a lot with impunity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Given the pain being caused to the real economy by the financial turbulence, it’s not clear why it is in anyone’s interests to wait 18 more days before the inevitable u-turn on the mini budget
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
Surely it's not hard. Imagine the markets with Truss and Kwarteng "in office but out of control" and then imagine something not as bad.
She's already got the pound heading to parity with the seashell in four weeks.
Both pound and stockmarket have rallied - is that the U-turn, or the nasty US inflation figures ?
The FTSE fell over 2% from HoD on the news of US inflation and is currently down 1.25% Pound is well off highs of the day
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
Kier Starmer doesn't need to come in with a fully formed plan. This whole disaster arose because Truss and Kwarteng stupidly, arrogantly, dived into a tax-slash to appeal to Tory members (three weeks after Tory members had ceased to matter) and had absolutely no detail or convincing analysis behind it.
What markets like is stability and predictability. And, whilst the style can be a problem for him politically, Starmer is in fact boringly, predictably stable. Were he to become PM, the whole point is he'd not be doing anything flash or trying to pull too many rabbits out of hats.
In terms of "analysing" policies in a manifesto, the level of detail just isn't there in a manifesto and that's fine. Manifesto commitments are things you want to do at some point over a five year term following detailed work by civil servants, wide consultation, drafting of legislation and relatively slow passage through Parliament etc. They aren't (in general) things you plan to do in the first month with absolutely no groundwork.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Out of interest, Scott, I understand you were fairly pro-Tory, pre-brexit.
Is there anyone in the tories who could win you back if they became leader? Or is it all about policy for you and you don’t care about the leader - ie, you’d support anyone who promised to reverse brexit?
Open question to any other former tories, also.
Personally, there are a few sane tories I could theoretically support. For example, I’d be quite content to vote for a Tory party headed by someone compassionate and competent (Robert Halfon?), pursuing a genuine 2019 style levelling up agenda.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Oh FGS they need to stop messing around. Scrap the budget. Go back to previous plans + price cap. October statement to focus solely on how you pay for the price cap. If you want to be clever and revisit things do it in the March budget*
*preferably delivered by a new chancellor under a new PM.
The only conceivable option for her is to go back on the whole thing and then wait for the news cycle to eventually move on by doing as little as possible. But unlike the 'omnishambles budget', this will actually be remembered by normal people because of the weight impact it will have.
Anecdata: I know two people currently trying to buy a house (one first time, other in chain) and three people trying to get a mortgage deal. The former folk have both had to pull out of purchases basically because their mortgage offers have shrunk, the latter group are seeing as a minimum multiple hundreds of pounds being added to their monthly outgoings.
The Truss administration is going to be forever associated with making a lot of people (a majority of whom are precisely the sort of people the Tory's ought to want voting for them) a lot worse off. For all of Boris's many, many flaws and failings, he didn't do anything like as much damage to peoples' finances - and while some of this is down to external factors, it is Truss and Kwarteng who have managed to exacerbate it considerably - all while making sure that genuinely rich people pay less tax. It's not just stupendously bad policy, it's stupendously bad politics.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
On behalf of all UK broadcasters spoken to Chancellor Is there going to be a u-turn? “Our position hasn't changed. I will come up with the medium term fiscal plan on the 31st of October as I said earlier in the week, there'll be more detail that”
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
He’s right. She should resign with dignity. Go down with grace
One decent speech and then she’s a footnote
The times are cruel. But at least she can say “I was prime minister”
Would you pay her 150 grand for an after-dinner speech?
In a way, if she goes soon after just a few weeks - she will have a unique brand. Something sellable. The famously short serving Liz Truss PM
If she slogs on she will be an inferior version of Theresa May, who is a stupid boring detestable witch
yes the Lady Jane Grey of Prime Ministers- Nick Leeson is a pretty popular speaker precisely because he got sacked for causing a multi billion pound crash and black hole (nobody wants to listen to the competent FD who makes 3% over the cost of capital) - So if you are going to be chit be really chit and you are then interesting.
She could do a double act with Kwasi - I would pay for a meal listening to that
On behalf of all UK broadcasters spoken to Chancellor Is there going to be a u-turn? “Our position hasn't changed. I will come up with the medium term fiscal plan on the 31st of October as I said earlier in the week, there'll be more detail that”
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
He’s right. She should resign with dignity. Go down with grace
One decent speech and then she’s a footnote
The times are cruel. But at least she can say “I was prime minister”
She can make a fortune on the after-dinner circuit. OK so she doesn't have "I shook hands with x" to talk about. What she has is far more unique. What happens when you reach the top and it all comes crashing down very quickly? And what lessons can we share that you expensive delegates can nod sagely at?"
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Truss and Charles both closing in on Sweyn Forkbeard in the Game of Historical Footnotes. Can she make the unofficial 2 months of Edgar Aethling? He at least hung around into the 12th century unsuccessfully advancing the Anglo Saxon claim. Truss could still be here on that basis in 2057 talking about her 'legitimate government in exile'
Out of interest, Scott, I understand you were fairly pro-Tory, pre-brexit.
Is there anyone in the tories who could win you back if they became leader? Or is it all about policy for you and you don’t care about the leader - ie, you’d support anyone who promised to reverse brexit?
I would vote for a Conservative and Unionist, most of whom were expelled by BoZo for not supporting his shitty deal
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
He’s right. She should resign with dignity. Go down with grace
One decent speech and then she’s a footnote
The times are cruel. But at least she can say “I was prime minister”
Would you pay her 150 grand for an after-dinner speech?
Perhaps she could go down the Tommy Cooper route and make a virtue out of incompetence- Tommy got a lot more popular when he stopped doing serious magic and pretended to mess things up
To pull that off, you have to be able to do serious magic.
Anyone think Truss can do serious politics?
She has basically appeared on the scene saying "I have this great new shiny way of doing things. It'll be GREAT!"
The markets said "Er....no, it really isn't...."
And all you can hear from Truss is a repeat of "It'll be GREAT!" with a blank face and lack of any comprehension of how NOT-GREAT things really are.
Even if she were to do a massive U-turn and basically implement everything Rishi Sunak said needed to be done that wasn't bat-shit crazy, there would be a strong residual fear that when we weren't looking, she'd again come out with some bat-shit crazy stuff accompanied by "It'll be GREAT!"...
Conservative Party, please note: you have already seen the best of Liz Truss. Frightening as that concept might be.....
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
Out of interest, Scott, I understand you were fairly pro-Tory, pre-brexit.
Is there anyone in the tories who could win you back if they became leader? Or is it all about policy for you and you don’t care about the leader - ie, you’d support anyone who promised to reverse brexit?
I would vote for a Conservative and Unionist, most of whom were expelled by [Boris] for not supporting his shitty deal
How many were actually "expelled" and how many just flounced?
Jut imagine how many drafts of it he will have got through by then.... Lol!
I’m in prole class. Free flight (writing for the Gazette) but prole
I thought about upgrading myself - it’s long - but I checked the prices. £7000 extra for a one way business ticket
Utterly insane. I’m a fairly affluent man but fuck that
If you're pissed as a fart it doesn't matter what class you're in.
Finally. You understand me
And I have an empty seat next to me in a half empty flight so this is basically Biz anyway. And I’ve saved £7000
👍👍
are the lovely air hostesses looking after you Leon? I find it tremendously sad when I board a plane and find I am in the gay stewards section and not the lovely looking air hostesses one.
If I was Liz Truss I wouldn’t wait to be thrown out of office by my party. I hope I’d resign. The country and markets have resoundingly rejected my signature agenda. It would be entirely self-serving to stay in office without mission, without credibility and without popularity.
INBOX: Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed its odds in half to 8-1 (from 16-1) on Boris Johnson making a return to Number 10 and replacing Liz Truss as prime minister.
So the brilliant Tory MPs who removed Boris have ended up with a replacement leader who has doubled Starmer's lead as preferred PM
Maybe this sophistication stuff is a bit overrated?
I have to keep reminding myself these days who used to be fervent members of the C&UP amongst the PBers.
Not me, never been a member (and its pretty unlikely to happen now).
Apols - there have been so many Sauline conversions it's become easier to assume they've all gone except HYUFD, Trussyguy and the Pirate.
Easy mistake to make. I generally favoured the Conservative position on economics when it was, err, Conservative. I favoured Brexit but in a balanced way, accepting good and bad and I am of course a dedicated Unionst who will vote for whatever Unionist party has the best chance in the seat, even the Conservatives, even now.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
“Russian-installed "governor" in Kherson region asks Moscow to evacuate residents to Russia out of security risks. "We know that Russia does not abandon its own," Vladimir Saldo said. Another sign that the standing of Russian forces in the region is in jeopardy.”
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
Kwarteng and Truss, I believe. Presumably he uses the abbreviation to stop him having to Google how to spell Kwarteng every time.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
Kamikwazi [edit sp] + Truss. But also K is the standard geological abbreviation for Cretaceous - and the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary [slightly obsolete terminology] is when the giant meteor hit and the Deccan Traps blew and the ruling reptiles were wiped out. So it's a double pun on mass extinction level eventry.
Edit: I think RP thought of it - but I may be wrong. Credit is where it sure is due, anyway.
American markets pricing in a 13% chance (and increasing) apparently of a 1% base rate rise in the US. Would be catastrophic for us and the EU and completely gut the US housing market
In America the decision is to accept a recession in order to put inflation back in its box. And I agree with this. Recessions come and go, hyper-inflation destroys society.
Except for the Joe Biden multi trillion dollar massively inflationary anti inflation bill And core inflation continues to rise, bond markets are in a state of rout. Powell is going to impoverish us all.
Rampant inflation is the ultimate economic horror and I support erring on the side of doing too much to combat it rather than too little. It's about taking no chances with something potentially catastrophic.
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
KT = Karteng / Truss
It is also the name given to the geological layer which marks the eradication of the dinosaurs - the KT boundry. Rather appropriate...?
Someone who was a v senor cabinet minister this year has put their association on notice for Election this year. They have a v safe seat but already preparing full bells and whistles campaigning this weekend you would expect in the run up to polling day. "It's coming," they say.
==============
The path to a collapse of the government which requires an election is fascinating. Two possible routes I can think of:
1) Operation Samson. Faced with calls for her head and her imminent demise, Truss proposes a motion that there be a general election. All opposition parties support, and despite "oh hell no" responses from various Tories it sneaks through. 2) The collapse of the government. No clear putsch against Truss emerges but despite an ever larger number of policy reversals her authority collapses completely, but with no clear agreement on a successor. With the markets in free-fall and the Tories in denial a no-confidence motion is put and sneaks through when the treasury bench tries to do a bravura defence and it falls flat.
Can you imagine the markets - with four weeks of nobody in control?
No, the Conservative Party cannot inflict that on the country. Put somebody in Downing Street - 10 and 11 - that can move us away from Truss and Kwarteng. And make the right noises to Mr. Market.
An election isn't the answer because, whilst it will lead to a change of government, the new government also doesn't have a clue what to do. If Sir Keir had an economic plan (beyond putting up taxes, although it looks like the incumbents are going to be forced to render that policy moot) then the markets would react by assuming he will win (which he will) and implement the policies he has announced. But if he doesn't announce them until the start of the election campaign, the market has less time to analyse them.
There is another factor. KT are seen as malevolent and amoral. Team Starmer wouldn't have all the answers on a plate. But would be less "fuck you" than the current lot.
Who or what is KT? I have been racking my brains to no avail (as it keeps popping up on here)
KT = Karteng / Truss
It is also the name given to the geological layer which marks the eradication of the dinosaurs - the KT boundry. Rather appropriate...?
Not really, since what we're seeing is the assertion of power of the economic dinosaurs who for some reason still believe in the failed policies of the last couple of decades over those who wish to try something different...
Comments
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1580541500710010880
Kwasi Kwarteng says he won't be presenting October 31st statement....
*preferably delivered by a new chancellor under a new PM.
'The lack of confidence in the market seems to feed into public perceptions that the government doesn't know what it's doing
'She is regarded as incompetent'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580548796479549440
I thought about upgrading myself - it’s long - but I checked the prices. £7000 extra for a one way business ticket
Utterly insane. I’m a fairly affluent man but fuck that
https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1580550895267635200
Pound is well off highs of the day
https://twitter.com/davidyelland/status/1580549109282263040
One decent speech and then she’s a footnote
The times are cruel. But at least she can say “I was prime minister”
Is his position now untentable? https://twitter.com/siobhankennedy4/status/1580546387619434497
https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/12/law-student-etches-tiny-notes-on-pens-to-cheat-on-exam-17551215/
Michigan county hires ‘Stop the Steal’ ringleader to recruit poll workers
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/12/michigan-county-hires-stop-the-steal-ringleader-to-recruit-poll-workers-00061564
A social media influencer who implored a crowd to “storm the gates” of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, has been hired by a Michigan county clerk as the “talent development specialist” working with poll workers in one of the battleground state’s biggest swing regions, according to an email obtained by POLITICO...
At the moment on current polls she will easily take his crown as having led the Conservatives to their worst general election defeat since universal suffrage
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1580552137255186432
If she slogs on she will be an inferior version of Theresa May, who is a stupid boring detestable witch
And core inflation continues to rise, bond markets are in a state of rout.
Powell is going to impoverish us all.
That's the only way I can explain why Truss and Kwarteng thought it was okay to have a budget statement without the OBR forecasts. They thought they could get away with quite a lot with impunity.
George Osborne @George_Osborne
Given the pain being caused to the real economy by the financial turbulence, it’s not clear why it is in anyone’s interests to wait 18 more days before the inevitable u-turn on the mini budget
Theresa May is a colossus compared to Liz Truss
Then she will say 'I told you so'. Because chaos is coming whatever happens.
Truss could have a stellar career as a negative indicator of what not to do next...
What markets like is stability and predictability. And, whilst the style can be a problem for him politically, Starmer is in fact boringly, predictably stable. Were he to become PM, the whole point is he'd not be doing anything flash or trying to pull too many rabbits out of hats.
In terms of "analysing" policies in a manifesto, the level of detail just isn't there in a manifesto and that's fine. Manifesto commitments are things you want to do at some point over a five year term following detailed work by civil servants, wide consultation, drafting of legislation and relatively slow passage through Parliament etc. They aren't (in general) things you plan to do in the first month with absolutely no groundwork.
Is there anyone in the tories who could win you back if they became leader? Or is it all about policy for you and you don’t care about the leader - ie, you’d support anyone who promised to reverse brexit?
Open question to any other former tories, also.
Personally, there are a few sane tories I could theoretically support. For example, I’d be quite content to vote for a Tory party headed by someone compassionate and competent (Robert Halfon?), pursuing a genuine 2019 style levelling up agenda.
I was thinking first step on the Southgate road to redemption.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWqmqGsTTBI
Anecdata: I know two people currently trying to buy a house (one first time, other in chain) and three people trying to get a mortgage deal. The former folk have both had to pull out of purchases basically because their mortgage offers have shrunk, the latter group are seeing as a minimum multiple hundreds of pounds being added to their monthly outgoings.
The Truss administration is going to be forever associated with making a lot of people (a majority of whom are precisely the sort of people the Tory's ought to want voting for them) a lot worse off. For all of Boris's many, many flaws and failings, he didn't do anything like as much damage to peoples' finances - and while some of this is down to external factors, it is Truss and Kwarteng who have managed to exacerbate it considerably - all while making sure that genuinely rich people pay less tax. It's not just stupendously bad policy, it's stupendously bad politics.
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1580554002084687872
On behalf of all UK broadcasters spoken to Chancellor
Is there going to be a u-turn?
“Our position hasn't changed. I will come up with the medium term fiscal plan on the 31st of October as I said earlier in the week, there'll be more detail that”
18 days feels like an awfully long time to try to hold the line at the moment https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1580553522021793795
She could do a double act with Kwasi - I would pay for a meal listening to that
However it is not in his hands
Anyone think Truss can do serious politics?
She has basically appeared on the scene saying "I have this great new shiny way of doing things. It'll be GREAT!"
The markets said "Er....no, it really isn't...."
And all you can hear from Truss is a repeat of "It'll be GREAT!" with a blank face and lack of any comprehension of how NOT-GREAT things really are.
Even if she were to do a massive U-turn and basically implement everything Rishi Sunak said needed to be done that wasn't bat-shit crazy, there would be a strong residual fear that when we weren't looking, she'd again come out with some bat-shit crazy stuff accompanied by "It'll be GREAT!"...
Conservative Party, please note: you have already seen the best of Liz Truss. Frightening as that concept might be.....
Finally. You understand me
And I have an empty seat next to me in a half empty flight so this is basically Biz anyway. And I’ve saved £7000
👍👍
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1580554063850090496
https://twitter.com/siobhankennedy4/status/1580546387619434497
😶
"We know that Russia does not abandon its own," Vladimir Saldo said. Another sign that the standing of Russian forces in the region is in jeopardy.”
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1580526973281243136?s=46&t=TQTbFzAD6Zkynzo0nMqjPg
Russia still losing on the ground even as they pummel Ukraine from the air
Edit: I think RP thought of it - but I may be wrong. Credit is where it sure is due, anyway.
It is also the name given to the geological layer which marks the eradication of the dinosaurs - the KT boundry. Rather appropriate...?