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Biden’s moving back up in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    BREAKING: IMF criticises Kwasi Kwarteng again saying govt’s tax cuts and energy support package has made Bank of England’s battle against inflation more difficult.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1579820383926374401
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    David__Osland
    @David__Osland
    ·
    3h
    Much of the criticism aimed at Kwasi Kwarteng is grossly unfair. Sometimes he gets through three or four successive days without crashing the bond market even once.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Then you have ardent supporters of the previous President who unironically fly the flag of America's sworn enemy in WWII and call themselves "Patriots".
    Not just the Americans, this.
    Humans are bad at dividing the world into more than two groups. Time and again, you see a bogeyman declared, and anyone who opposes that bogeyman declared a friend. My enemy's enemy is not my friend, though he may be my ally. A crucial difference.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting little insight into Nicola Sturgeon's trans quagmire (is it a quagmire?), and the wholly self-referential nature of some elements of that lobby.

    SNP equalities officer threatened to 'beat the f*** out of terfs and transphobes' in abusive tweets

    In now deleted tweets, Cameron Downing, 23, said he wanted to “beat the f*** out of some terfs and transphobes”.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-equalities-officer-threatened-beat-28189613

    1 - The chap is still in his job.
    2 - He has apologised to the 'LGBTQ+ community', and not to the people he was expressing a desire to "beat the f*ck out of".
    “I apologise for these tweets and for any offence caused to the LGBTQ+ community and have long since deleted them.” Tweets are from late 2020.

    2 is perhaps more concerning for anyone wanting to take this debate forward.

    I mean people say hyperbolic stuff on their social media all the time. But also - this article claims that terfs is a "derogatory term used against women who do not recognise the gender identity of trans women" when it is actually a term that they coined for themselves and stopped liking being associated with once they all started going weird on the main online.

    Would we have an issue with someone saying "I wanna beat up homophobes" especially if it was known that person was queer and had experienced abuse from homophobes? Would we have an issue with "I wanna beat up racists" if they had friends or knew a community who had just been attacked by racists? Imagine Tommy Robinson crying about people online saying "they're thugs for saying that sort of stuff about racists" and the Sun printing it.

    Hate crimes against LGBT+, but especially trans people, are going through the roof. As a queer person, that makes me both scared and furious, for myself and my friends. So yeah, going on social media and being a bit mouthy is not a big deal to me.

    https://news.sky.com/story/hate-crimes-recorded-in-england-and-wales-reach-record-high-12713558

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-office-hate-crime-hate-crimes-lgbt-suella-braverman-b2197101.html
    Wow, just wow. So you have no objection to a man going on social media and threatening to beat up women, using a derogatory term for women?

    I'm sorry but if instead of "terfs" it had been "fags" would you be as blasé?

    Anyone who threatens to beat up women, or gay people, or anyone else is utterly disgusting and has no place being an "equalities office" two years later, especially when he's not apologised to the community he threatened to beat up.

    The idea you think "terfs" are like "racists" shows something rather broken about your mindset. Yes gay people can be victims of crime and need protection. So are women too though, and crimes against women are just as serious a problem, which is what what you dismiss as "terfs" are dealing with.
    TERF is not synonymous with women - again, it would be like saying "I wanna bash some racists" is a threat to women because some racists are women. Men are much more likely to care about these issues, and to be openly transphobic. At demos, whilst fronted by some women, there are mostly men in the crowds, and a lot of the membership organisations are predominantly men.

    TERF is an ideology, a belief, a political view, that has evolved over time and has become radicalised. In it's beginnings I would say it was an understandable if ultimately inaccurate position; now it is an active campaign of bigotry and misinformation. The links to the far right and other conspiratorial right wing politics are well mapped. Again, I see no difference between this and "bash the fash".
    I think you misunderstand the history of the term. It was coined by "trans-inclusionary" radical feminists who wanted to define themselves against those who drew a distinction between transwomen and biological women.
    Sorry, it may have been coined by trans inclusive feminists, but it was not derogatory in nature and TERFs did originally accept and use that label themselves.
    Two comments I would make:

    1 - The expressed desire to inflict violence on political opponents is clearly beyond the pale, and I'm amazed that this individual is still in his job. Those tweets may well be criminal.

    2 - I think the issue with TERF is currently used - as a demonising term for anyone who needs to be abused, rather than where it came from. Language can become derogatory in its use.

    Consider, eg, "Karen", for one example.)

    TERF is used, for example, of JK Rowling, who is anything but a "Radical Feminist" (which aiui is a smallish subset of the broader feminist movement).

    It seems to be to be a tribal term used to avoid actually debating anything.
    There is a curious phenomenon whereby incitements to violence are widely tolerated as a quirk of societal progress when they originate with the political left. However, the full force of criminal law tends to be applied when those on the political right try and do the same thing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
    It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
    I think I'm right in saying she would need to get 51 votes, as there couldn't be a tie-breaker in those circumstances? Or could she vote on her own nomination?

    Not that it's ever been tried.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    actually we've never had a President hit 80 before. Reagan was 78 on leaving office.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Zuckerberg's fixation on the Metaverse may be less than engaging to people who don't want dystopian hell to be the way the internet works.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
    It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
    I think I'm right in saying she would need to get 51 votes, as there couldn't be a tie-breaker in those circumstances? Or could she vote on her own nomination?

    Not that it's ever been tried.
    I imagine she could vote to break the tie on her own nomination. But it would look pretty shady and hackish, so you'd risk losing Manchin etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,967
    edited October 2022

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Trump was still President?

    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-blames-us-almost-forcing-putin-invade-ukraine-1750145

    Trump is now pushing for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine

    https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-believes-world-war-iii-is-a-possibility-blames-stupid-people-for-russia-ukraine-conflict-escalation-523884
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    Gladstone ran and won here at the age of 82 in 1892. Bin Mohamad won in 2018 as is currently PM of Malaysia at the age of 92 so it's not like it hasn't been done before elsewhere.
    Gladstone lost in 1892.

    But, as the Unionist coalition didn't have an outright majority, he was able to return to power with the support of the Irish Home Rule party.
  • DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.

    No. There is an alternative argument to yours.

    The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do. Surely it should be other way round, government and politicians make the decisions and decide the direction of travel - scientists and economists brought in to help realise and achieve politicians vision.

    Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?
    So if a PM gets elected on a platform of free teleportation to be delivered to all by 2028 should we only employ scientists who promise to deliver on that, or those that say, sorry PM, you are talking nonsense.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/uk-news/23038161.martin-lewis-highlights-benefit-grandparents-can-thousands-pensions/

    Mr Lewis, on something new to me:

    “If you are a parent of an under 12, and if your parent (ie child’s grandparent) do childcare so you can work, you can apply to them Specified Adult Childcare Credit.

    “This means they get the National Insurance years that normally go to a parent who is off work looking after children (as you are working you will usually be getting from work).

    “This can add £1000s to a state pension.”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: IMF criticises Kwasi Kwarteng again saying govt’s tax cuts and energy support package has made Bank of England’s battle against inflation more difficult.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1579820383926374401

    For the second time today:

    No. Shit. Sherlocks.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    ...
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    ...
    Quite funny how almost the polar opposite is actually true.
  • HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Trump was still President?

    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-blames-us-almost-forcing-putin-invade-ukraine-1750145
    Well on the facts...

    2014 - Obama President, Russian invasion
    2016-2020 - trump President - no invasion
    2022 - Biden President - Russian version

    Interpret those facts as you will

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    Leon said:

    Life does seem to have got very uncertain in so many spheres so quickly. It just feels like everything is broken. An overreaction, of course - but that level of unease that we have all had the best years of this century is hard to shake.

    Well if you could stop willing the Actual Apocalypse, that might improve things
    Grow up.

    You effeminately bemoan the end of the world, then you demand we attack Putin directly. Failing to see there might be some connection between these two things

    You've gone fucking nuts, like too many on here
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.

    Biden's fine. He trips over his words and says inappropriate shit but he's always done that.
    He recently tried to talk to a dead person
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the Ukraine situation and Trump's continued popularity amongst the GOP has led Biden to the conclusion he should stay on as an experienced old hand in global affairs/congress jiggery pokery rather than letting Harris have a go.
    If the situation was more benign he'd probably call it a day.

    Agree, it will be a “no time for a novice” pitch.

    If he manages to navigate the Ukraine situation to a positive resolution then he could get quite a lot of kudos for that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    Gladstone ran and won here at the age of 82 in 1892. Bin Mohamad won in 2018 as is currently PM of Malaysia at the age of 92 so it's not like it hasn't been done before elsewhere.
    Gladstone lost in 1892.

    But, as the Unionist coalition didn't have an outright majority, he was able to return to power with the support of the Irish Home Rule party.
    That's a long way round to say he won :p
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,089

    DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.

    No. There is an alternative argument to yours.

    The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do. Surely it should be other way round, government and politicians make the decisions and decide the direction of travel - scientists and economists brought in to help realise and achieve politicians vision.

    Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?
    But isn't that how the OBR works? The economists at the OBR don't tell the government what to do (just as the scientists during COVID never controlled what the government did). They just give independent forecasts and analyses of what the government does, information which helps the politicians and the public. If the government is running scared of the OBR, that's a problem with the government, not the OBR.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    The juxtaposition of these...

    Pavel Gubarev, Russia's "DPR" figure in Donetsk, states their intent towards Ukrainians: "We aren't coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don't want to be convinced, we'll kill you. We'll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you."
    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579820810751324160

    Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatiana Moskalkova on Tuesday said she has asked UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk and international human rights groups to investigate the events in Kupyansk:
    go.tass.ru/jGNta

    https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/1579813670946643970

    Can't quite believe there is a Russian Human Rights Commissioner.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    edited October 2022

    I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.

    Perhaps since our PM is astoundingly inept, and Biden has against all expectations turned out to be rather a good President ?

    That’s straightforward opinions, not diplomacy. If we thought he was senile, rather than a bit doddery, we’d say so.
    You’re entitled to your opinion, but it’s far from universally accepted. And in respect of Truss, niche in the extreme.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.

    No. There is an alternative argument to yours.

    The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do. Surely it should be other way round, government and politicians make the decisions and decide the direction of travel - scientists and economists brought in to help realise and achieve politicians vision.

    Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?
    The parameters of the OBR are to keep borrowing below a certain percentage of GDP. The Government doesn't believe that that metric should be the sole focus, and history has proven them correct. When we've raised taxes we have frequently failed to pull in the anticipated revenue. When we've exceeded growth forecasts, that's when we pull in more tax than expected. Growth is the x factor. Who is keeping tabs on growth? Who is measuring inflation? The OBR are useless in this regard.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH


    "F*ck.
    Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes.
    Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1579822468973268992?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Trump was still President?

    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-blames-us-almost-forcing-putin-invade-ukraine-1750145
    Well on the facts...

    2014 - Obama President, Russian invasion
    2016-2020 - trump President - no invasion
    2022 - Biden President - Russian version

    Interpret those facts as you will

    Historical fact indeed, but the cause-effect correlation is nonetheless somewhat weak.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    It would show that Trump intends to be a president that can work with Democrats in his second term. A bridge building moment.
    LOL. Very good.
  • darkage said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting little insight into Nicola Sturgeon's trans quagmire (is it a quagmire?), and the wholly self-referential nature of some elements of that lobby.

    SNP equalities officer threatened to 'beat the f*** out of terfs and transphobes' in abusive tweets

    In now deleted tweets, Cameron Downing, 23, said he wanted to “beat the f*** out of some terfs and transphobes”.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-equalities-officer-threatened-beat-28189613

    1 - The chap is still in his job.
    2 - He has apologised to the 'LGBTQ+ community', and not to the people he was expressing a desire to "beat the f*ck out of".
    “I apologise for these tweets and for any offence caused to the LGBTQ+ community and have long since deleted them.” Tweets are from late 2020.

    2 is perhaps more concerning for anyone wanting to take this debate forward.

    I mean people say hyperbolic stuff on their social media all the time. But also - this article claims that terfs is a "derogatory term used against women who do not recognise the gender identity of trans women" when it is actually a term that they coined for themselves and stopped liking being associated with once they all started going weird on the main online.

    Would we have an issue with someone saying "I wanna beat up homophobes" especially if it was known that person was queer and had experienced abuse from homophobes? Would we have an issue with "I wanna beat up racists" if they had friends or knew a community who had just been attacked by racists? Imagine Tommy Robinson crying about people online saying "they're thugs for saying that sort of stuff about racists" and the Sun printing it.

    Hate crimes against LGBT+, but especially trans people, are going through the roof. As a queer person, that makes me both scared and furious, for myself and my friends. So yeah, going on social media and being a bit mouthy is not a big deal to me.

    https://news.sky.com/story/hate-crimes-recorded-in-england-and-wales-reach-record-high-12713558

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-office-hate-crime-hate-crimes-lgbt-suella-braverman-b2197101.html
    Wow, just wow. So you have no objection to a man going on social media and threatening to beat up women, using a derogatory term for women?

    I'm sorry but if instead of "terfs" it had been "fags" would you be as blasé?

    Anyone who threatens to beat up women, or gay people, or anyone else is utterly disgusting and has no place being an "equalities office" two years later, especially when he's not apologised to the community he threatened to beat up.

    The idea you think "terfs" are like "racists" shows something rather broken about your mindset. Yes gay people can be victims of crime and need protection. So are women too though, and crimes against women are just as serious a problem, which is what what you dismiss as "terfs" are dealing with.
    TERF is not synonymous with women - again, it would be like saying "I wanna bash some racists" is a threat to women because some racists are women. Men are much more likely to care about these issues, and to be openly transphobic. At demos, whilst fronted by some women, there are mostly men in the crowds, and a lot of the membership organisations are predominantly men.

    TERF is an ideology, a belief, a political view, that has evolved over time and has become radicalised. In it's beginnings I would say it was an understandable if ultimately inaccurate position; now it is an active campaign of bigotry and misinformation. The links to the far right and other conspiratorial right wing politics are well mapped. Again, I see no difference between this and "bash the fash".
    I think you misunderstand the history of the term. It was coined by "trans-inclusionary" radical feminists who wanted to define themselves against those who drew a distinction between transwomen and biological women.
    Sorry, it may have been coined by trans inclusive feminists, but it was not derogatory in nature and TERFs did originally accept and use that label themselves.
    Two comments I would make:

    1 - The expressed desire to inflict violence on political opponents is clearly beyond the pale, and I'm amazed that this individual is still in his job. Those tweets may well be criminal.

    2 - I think the issue with TERF is currently used - as a demonising term for anyone who needs to be abused, rather than where it came from. Language can become derogatory in its use.

    Consider, eg, "Karen", for one example.)

    TERF is used, for example, of JK Rowling, who is anything but a "Radical Feminist" (which aiui is a smallish subset of the broader feminist movement).

    It seems to be to be a tribal term used to avoid actually debating anything.
    There is a curious phenomenon whereby incitements to violence are widely tolerated as a quirk of societal progress when they originate with the political left. However, the full force of criminal law tends to be applied when those on the political right try and do the same thing.
    Like last month, when Sir David Thompson QPM DL told a journalist he had "plenty of women and LGBT officers more than capable of putting him on his backside if he came at them waving his sharp fountain pen," and all the people on Twitter took a break from complaining about the Tories turning Britain into a fascist police state to applaud.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Leon said:

    As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH


    "F*ck.
    Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes.
    Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1579822468973268992?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA

    Don't cheat and head to Twitter

    "The Russian missile attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been. That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons."

    50 million Kwasi/BoE IOUs for anyone who can guess..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    Gladstone ran and won here at the age of 82 in 1892. Bin Mohamad won in 2018 as is currently PM of Malaysia at the age of 92 so it's not like it hasn't been done before elsewhere.
    Gladstone lost in 1892.

    But, as the Unionist coalition didn't have an outright majority, he was able to return to power with the support of the Irish Home Rule party.
    That's a long way round to say he won :p
    No, he lost. He was heading the Cabinet, but the Lords blocked all his reforms and his ministers spent all their time scheming against him. Bizarrely, he ended up attacking his own government over naval spending.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    That's not the Kerch bridge.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Good grief


    "Huge fire after the missile attack on an object in Kyiv.

    #Ukraine #Ukrainewar #UkraineRussiaWar #Kyiv #Crimea"

    https://twitter.com/Chronology22/status/1579789917668147201?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,089

    DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.

    No. There is an alternative argument to yours.

    The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do. Surely it should be other way round, government and politicians make the decisions and decide the direction of travel - scientists and economists brought in to help realise and achieve politicians vision.

    Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?
    The parameters of the OBR are to keep borrowing below a certain percentage of GDP. The Government doesn't believe that that metric should be the sole focus, and history has proven them correct. When we've raised taxes we have frequently failed to pull in the anticipated revenue. When we've exceeded growth forecasts, that's when we pull in more tax than expected. Growth is the x factor. Who is keeping tabs on growth? Who is measuring inflation? The OBR are useless in this regard.
    The parameters of the OBR are to give forecasts and analyses. It has no power to do anything. It is not a decision making body. The government can do what it want, irrespective of what the OBR says.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    Do you have a picture of the underside of the Kerch bridge ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    Gladstone ran and won here at the age of 82 in 1892. Bin Mohamad won in 2018 as is currently PM of Malaysia at the age of 92 so it's not like it hasn't been done before elsewhere.
    Gladstone lost in 1892.

    But, as the Unionist coalition didn't have an outright majority, he was able to return to power with the support of the Irish Home Rule party.
    That's a long way round to say he won :p
    No, he lost. He was heading the Cabinet, but the Lords blocked all his reforms and his ministers spent all their time scheming against him. Bizarrely, he ended up attacking his own government over naval spending.
    Under our system the man or woman who is the PM is the winner. Like Theresa May ! I mean the one possible arguable exception is Ramsay McDonald/Stanley Baldwin but that's about it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH


    "F*ck.
    Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes.
    Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1579822468973268992?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA

    Don't cheat and head to Twitter

    "The Russian missile attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been. That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons."

    50 million Kwasi/BoE IOUs for anyone who can guess..
    The Russians weren't trying to kill people. They were trying to hit infrastructure. Not sure of the point you are making?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Leon said:

    I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.

    Biden's fine. He trips over his words and says inappropriate shit but he's always done that.
    He recently tried to talk to a dead person
    He's busy trying to stop everybody getting nuked or finding out about the aliens. He shouldn't be wasting valuable time keeping track of which members of the congressional Republican party are dead.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,085
    edited October 2022
    This is the final reminder that the sequel ("The Russian Invasion of UK") to my first Ukraine article[1] will be discussed tonight in the discussion place between 7-8pm BST. Any last-minute people, shout out.

    Notes
    [1] https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/02/why-ukraine-was-particularly-vulnerable/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting little insight into Nicola Sturgeon's trans quagmire (is it a quagmire?), and the wholly self-referential nature of some elements of that lobby.

    SNP equalities officer threatened to 'beat the f*** out of terfs and transphobes' in abusive tweets

    In now deleted tweets, Cameron Downing, 23, said he wanted to “beat the f*** out of some terfs and transphobes”.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-equalities-officer-threatened-beat-28189613

    1 - The chap is still in his job.
    2 - He has apologised to the 'LGBTQ+ community', and not to the people he was expressing a desire to "beat the f*ck out of".
    “I apologise for these tweets and for any offence caused to the LGBTQ+ community and have long since deleted them.” Tweets are from late 2020.

    2 is perhaps more concerning for anyone wanting to take this debate forward.

    I mean people say hyperbolic stuff on their social media all the time. But also - this article claims that terfs is a "derogatory term used against women who do not recognise the gender identity of trans women" when it is actually a term that they coined for themselves and stopped liking being associated with once they all started going weird on the main online.

    Would we have an issue with someone saying "I wanna beat up homophobes" especially if it was known that person was queer and had experienced abuse from homophobes? Would we have an issue with "I wanna beat up racists" if they had friends or knew a community who had just been attacked by racists? Imagine Tommy Robinson crying about people online saying "they're thugs for saying that sort of stuff about racists" and the Sun printing it.

    Hate crimes against LGBT+, but especially trans people, are going through the roof. As a queer person, that makes me both scared and furious, for myself and my friends. So yeah, going on social media and being a bit mouthy is not a big deal to me.

    https://news.sky.com/story/hate-crimes-recorded-in-england-and-wales-reach-record-high-12713558

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-office-hate-crime-hate-crimes-lgbt-suella-braverman-b2197101.html
    Wow, just wow. So you have no objection to a man going on social media and threatening to beat up women, using a derogatory term for women?

    I'm sorry but if instead of "terfs" it had been "fags" would you be as blasé?

    Anyone who threatens to beat up women, or gay people, or anyone else is utterly disgusting and has no place being an "equalities office" two years later, especially when he's not apologised to the community he threatened to beat up.

    The idea you think "terfs" are like "racists" shows something rather broken about your mindset. Yes gay people can be victims of crime and need protection. So are women too though, and crimes against women are just as serious a problem, which is what what you dismiss as "terfs" are dealing with.
    TERF is not synonymous with women - again, it would be like saying "I wanna bash some racists" is a threat to women because some racists are women. Men are much more likely to care about these issues, and to be openly transphobic. At demos, whilst fronted by some women, there are mostly men in the crowds, and a lot of the membership organisations are predominantly men.

    TERF is an ideology, a belief, a political view, that has evolved over time and has become radicalised. In it's beginnings I would say it was an understandable if ultimately inaccurate position; now it is an active campaign of bigotry and misinformation. The links to the far right and other conspiratorial right wing politics are well mapped. Again, I see no difference between this and "bash the fash".
    I think you misunderstand the history of the term. It was coined by "trans-inclusionary" radical feminists who wanted to define themselves against those who drew a distinction between transwomen and biological women.
    Sorry, it may have been coined by trans inclusive feminists, but it was not derogatory in nature and TERFs did originally accept and use that label themselves.
    Two comments I would make:

    1 - The expressed desire to inflict violence on political opponents is clearly beyond the pale, and I'm amazed that this individual is still in his job. Those tweets may well be criminal.

    2 - I think the issue with TERF is currently used - as a demonising term for anyone who needs to be abused, rather than where it came from. Language can become derogatory in its use.

    Consider, eg, "Karen", for one example.)

    TERF is used, for example, of JK Rowling, who is anything but a "Radical Feminist" (which aiui is a smallish subset of the broader feminist movement).

    It seems to be to be a tribal term used to avoid actually debating anything.
    The nomenclature of religious strife has been repurposed for the modern age.

    You find someone guilty of heresy. Then anything you do is virtuous and for the good of society. Even the good of the heretic.

    See Sir Thomas Moore having someone imprisoned for the crime of being found not guilty of heresy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    We really need Putin to run out of missiles, and soon. If he doesn't this is bad
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    Gladstone ran and won here at the age of 82 in 1892. Bin Mohamad won in 2018 as is currently PM of Malaysia at the age of 92 so it's not like it hasn't been done before elsewhere.
    Gladstone lost in 1892.

    But, as the Unionist coalition didn't have an outright majority, he was able to return to power with the support of the Irish Home Rule party.
    That's a long way round to say he won :p
    No, he lost. He was heading the Cabinet, but the Lords blocked all his reforms and his ministers spent all their time scheming against him. Bizarrely, he ended up attacking his own government over naval spending.
    Under our system the man or woman who is the PM is the winner. Like Theresa May ! I mean the one possible arguable exception is Ramsay McDonald/Stanley Baldwin but that's about it.
    Lord Aberdeen was a winner?

    Lord Derby also?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Then you have ardent supporters of the previous President who unironically fly the flag of America's sworn enemy in WWII and call themselves "Patriots".
    Japan?

    But in any case I thought we were past "bad person supports X therefore X is also bad".
    No, we have X talks approvingly of very bad people who support X, which illustrates that X is a rather unpleasant guy himself.

    And no, not Japan.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    edited October 2022
    Nigelb said:

    I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.

    Perhaps since our PM is astoundingly inept, and Biden has against all expectations turned out to be rather a good President ?

    That’s straightforward opinions, not diplomacy. If we thought he was senile, rather than a bit doddery, we’d say so.
    You’re entitled to your opinion, but it’s far from universally accepted. And in respect of Truss, niche in the extreme.
    If he was not giving concern about his infirmity, there would be no doubts about his age. I have not come down on any side - I've seen videos about his behaviour that I felt were unfair and easily explained. However, it doesn't take away from the simple fact that the discussion is about Biden at 80, not 80 year olds in general. Pretending otherwise is ridiculously prim.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Leon said:

    As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH


    "F*ck.
    Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes.
    Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1579822468973268992?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA

    That's not the thing that was in dispute. Everyone can see that's what they're trying to do. And, of course, you were worrying about Putin using a nuke and ridiculing those who suggested he might lob a few missiles at some civilian targets.

    What is in dispute is whether we should react by giving in to this aggression. On that I still think you are very very wrong.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    Is that Spaghetti Junction? General wear and tear. It'll be fine.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    David__Osland
    @David__Osland
    ·
    3h
    Much of the criticism aimed at Kwasi Kwarteng is grossly unfair. Sometimes he gets through three or four successive days without crashing the bond market even once.

    He didn't crash it at all, until he became Chancellor...

    Dear Westminster chums, sorry to be boring on about bonds again, but this isn’t very good. https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1579825573513560064/photo/1
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited October 2022
    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    That's the other bridge in Kherson that keeps getting hit by missiles.

    But no, that doesn't look good for a speedy retreat...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    Interesting interview with Freeman Dyson, a physicist who worked at Bomber Command during WW2.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEe76a9hZZA

    Dyson: The Germans were being heavily bombed for about three years, so they got very good at civil defense. Whereas in Britain we were only bombed for six months, we never really got the hang of it. It was a huge difference. It actually took ten times as many bombs to kill one person in Germany as it did to kill one person in London. That was one of the reasons why the campaign failed, that the German civil defense was just very good. You can actually save people with civil defense. Most people are unaware of that. Civil defense does work. It would also work against nuclear bombs. Of course, that is a politically unpopular view, but it happens to be true.

    Kelly: Can you explain that?

    Dyson: Well, most of the people who are killed in nuclear bombing are killed by blast and fire, which is sort of old-fashioned, it has nothing to do nuclear radiation. Some people die of nuclear radiation, but that’s a small number by comparison. If you are five feet underground, you are very well shielded from all of that. So most people, even in a nuclear bombing, would survive, if they are five feet underground. Of course, in Hiroshima, they didn’t have that. If the Japanese had had a couple of years, they would have learned, and probably faster than that. It’s quite unrealistic to imagine that, with good civil defense, that Hiroshima would have been so devastating.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    “I see no alternative but the government saying we will not cut taxes now”

    Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, tells @Sarah_Montague that spending cuts would cause ‘significant damage’ to the markets.

    #BBCWATO
    https://twitter.com/BBCWorldatOne/status/1579817218442862592/video/1
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH


    "F*ck.
    Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes.
    Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1579822468973268992?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA

    Don't cheat and head to Twitter

    "The Russian missile attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been. That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons."

    50 million Kwasi/BoE IOUs for anyone who can guess..
    The Russians weren't trying to kill people. They were trying to hit infrastructure. Not sure of the point you are making?
    I have precision strikes that minimise civilian casualties.

    You have pathetic missiles that don't kill as many people as they should.

    It's one of those irregular verbs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Leon said:

    I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.

    Biden's fine. He trips over his words and says inappropriate shit but he's always done that.
    He recently tried to talk to a dead person
    Didn’t you do that with your medium friend ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    Is that Spaghetti Junction? General wear and tear. It'll be fine.
    I went pasta Spaghetti Junction the other day.

    It was all tangled up.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ‘The metaphor is too on the nose,’ explained a spokesperson from the Department of Own Goals https://twitter.com/indy100/status/1579813806900846592
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH


    "F*ck.
    Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes.
    Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1579822468973268992?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA

    Don't cheat and head to Twitter

    "The Russian missile attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been. That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons."

    50 million Kwasi/BoE IOUs for anyone who can guess..
    The Russians weren't trying to kill people. They were trying to hit infrastructure. Not sure of the point you are making?
    I have precision strikes that minimise civilian casualties.

    You have pathetic missiles that don't kill as many people as they should.

    It's one of those irregular verbs.
    it really isn't.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited October 2022

    darkage said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting little insight into Nicola Sturgeon's trans quagmire (is it a quagmire?), and the wholly self-referential nature of some elements of that lobby.

    SNP equalities officer threatened to 'beat the f*** out of terfs and transphobes' in abusive tweets

    In now deleted tweets, Cameron Downing, 23, said he wanted to “beat the f*** out of some terfs and transphobes”.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-equalities-officer-threatened-beat-28189613

    1 - The chap is still in his job.
    2 - He has apologised to the 'LGBTQ+ community', and not to the people he was expressing a desire to "beat the f*ck out of".
    “I apologise for these tweets and for any offence caused to the LGBTQ+ community and have long since deleted them.” Tweets are from late 2020.

    2 is perhaps more concerning for anyone wanting to take this debate forward.

    I mean people say hyperbolic stuff on their social media all the time. But also - this article claims that terfs is a "derogatory term used against women who do not recognise the gender identity of trans women" when it is actually a term that they coined for themselves and stopped liking being associated with once they all started going weird on the main online.

    Would we have an issue with someone saying "I wanna beat up homophobes" especially if it was known that person was queer and had experienced abuse from homophobes? Would we have an issue with "I wanna beat up racists" if they had friends or knew a community who had just been attacked by racists? Imagine Tommy Robinson crying about people online saying "they're thugs for saying that sort of stuff about racists" and the Sun printing it.

    Hate crimes against LGBT+, but especially trans people, are going through the roof. As a queer person, that makes me both scared and furious, for myself and my friends. So yeah, going on social media and being a bit mouthy is not a big deal to me.

    https://news.sky.com/story/hate-crimes-recorded-in-england-and-wales-reach-record-high-12713558

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-office-hate-crime-hate-crimes-lgbt-suella-braverman-b2197101.html
    Wow, just wow. So you have no objection to a man going on social media and threatening to beat up women, using a derogatory term for women?

    I'm sorry but if instead of "terfs" it had been "fags" would you be as blasé?

    Anyone who threatens to beat up women, or gay people, or anyone else is utterly disgusting and has no place being an "equalities office" two years later, especially when he's not apologised to the community he threatened to beat up.

    The idea you think "terfs" are like "racists" shows something rather broken about your mindset. Yes gay people can be victims of crime and need protection. So are women too though, and crimes against women are just as serious a problem, which is what what you dismiss as "terfs" are dealing with.
    TERF is not synonymous with women - again, it would be like saying "I wanna bash some racists" is a threat to women because some racists are women. Men are much more likely to care about these issues, and to be openly transphobic. At demos, whilst fronted by some women, there are mostly men in the crowds, and a lot of the membership organisations are predominantly men.

    TERF is an ideology, a belief, a political view, that has evolved over time and has become radicalised. In it's beginnings I would say it was an understandable if ultimately inaccurate position; now it is an active campaign of bigotry and misinformation. The links to the far right and other conspiratorial right wing politics are well mapped. Again, I see no difference between this and "bash the fash".
    I think you misunderstand the history of the term. It was coined by "trans-inclusionary" radical feminists who wanted to define themselves against those who drew a distinction between transwomen and biological women.
    Sorry, it may have been coined by trans inclusive feminists, but it was not derogatory in nature and TERFs did originally accept and use that label themselves.
    Two comments I would make:

    1 - The expressed desire to inflict violence on political opponents is clearly beyond the pale, and I'm amazed that this individual is still in his job. Those tweets may well be criminal.

    2 - I think the issue with TERF is currently used - as a demonising term for anyone who needs to be abused, rather than where it came from. Language can become derogatory in its use.

    Consider, eg, "Karen", for one example.)

    TERF is used, for example, of JK Rowling, who is anything but a "Radical Feminist" (which aiui is a smallish subset of the broader feminist movement).

    It seems to be to be a tribal term used to avoid actually debating anything.
    There is a curious phenomenon whereby incitements to violence are widely tolerated as a quirk of societal progress when they originate with the political left. However, the full force of criminal law tends to be applied when those on the political right try and do the same thing.
    Like last month, when Sir David Thompson QPM DL told a journalist he had "plenty of women and LGBT officers more than capable of putting him on his backside if he came at them waving his sharp fountain pen," and all the people on Twitter took a break from complaining about the Tories turning Britain into a fascist police state to applaud.
    No desire to inflict violence there. Rather different from the tweet I commented on:



  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Gotta love the IMFs timing just as Kwateng takes to his feet
  • Interesting interview with Freeman Dyson, a physicist who worked at Bomber Command during WW2.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEe76a9hZZA

    Dyson: The Germans were being heavily bombed for about three years, so they got very good at civil defense. Whereas in Britain we were only bombed for six months, we never really got the hang of it. It was a huge difference. It actually took ten times as many bombs to kill one person in Germany as it did to kill one person in London. That was one of the reasons why the campaign failed, that the German civil defense was just very good. You can actually save people with civil defense. Most people are unaware of that. Civil defense does work. It would also work against nuclear bombs. Of course, that is a politically unpopular view, but it happens to be true.

    Kelly: Can you explain that?

    Dyson: Well, most of the people who are killed in nuclear bombing are killed by blast and fire, which is sort of old-fashioned, it has nothing to do nuclear radiation. Some people die of nuclear radiation, but that’s a small number by comparison. If you are five feet underground, you are very well shielded from all of that. So most people, even in a nuclear bombing, would survive, if they are five feet underground. Of course, in Hiroshima, they didn’t have that. If the Japanese had had a couple of years, they would have learned, and probably faster than that. It’s quite unrealistic to imagine that, with good civil defense, that Hiroshima would have been so devastating.

    Most weapons deployed against civilian targets would likely be airburst. Anyone close enough to the hypocentre is dead whether they are underground or not. For those where its blast and fire that is the risk, then sure you can find some shelter from these.

    The whole point in Protect and Survive instructing people to build a Blue Peter Home Fallout Shelter was to afford some protections against blast & fire and then from radiation - which contrary to the claim would fuck unshielded people hard if it gets to them.

    The issue then of course is that you may well have a load of survivors. Who you need to feed to get them working on reconstruction. Its not as simple as "stick everyone in a bomb shelter and its fine". Its not.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Leon said:

    Good grief


    "Huge fire after the missile attack on an object in Kyiv.

    #Ukraine #Ukrainewar #UkraineRussiaWar #Kyiv #Crimea"

    https://twitter.com/Chronology22/status/1579789917668147201?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA

    I think that was the hydroelectric plant where a fire reportedly started because of an overload.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    ydoethur said:

    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    Is that Spaghetti Junction? General wear and tear. It'll be fine.
    I went pasta Spaghetti Junction the other day.

    It was all tangled up.
    Noodling around with your puns again ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Life does seem to have got very uncertain in so many spheres so quickly. It just feels like everything is broken. An overreaction, of course - but that level of unease that we have all had the best years of this century is hard to shake.

    Well if you could stop willing the Actual Apocalypse, that might improve things
    Grow up.

    You effeminately bemoan the end of the world, then you demand we attack Putin directly. Failing to see there might be some connection between these two things

    You've gone fucking nuts, like too many on here
    Where have I said "we attack Putin directly"?

    Go and post on the ILoveMakingShitUp site. You'd go down a storm there....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    Is that Spaghetti Junction? General wear and tear. It'll be fine.
    I went pasta Spaghetti Junction the other day.

    It was all tangled up.
    Noodling around with your puns again ?
    Yes, but it has to be said I've penned better ones than that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    Leon said:

    As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH


    "F*ck.
    Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes.
    Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1579822468973268992?s=20&t=UdTwe-FIopZ9s6smY77KwA

    That's not the thing that was in dispute. Everyone can see that's what they're trying to do. And, of course, you were worrying about Putin using a nuke and ridiculing those who suggested he might lob a few missiles at some civilian targets.

    What is in dispute is whether we should react by giving in to this aggression. On that I still think you are very very wrong.
    Not true. Plenty of people here, yesterday, had the deluded opinion that Putin was especially targeting civilians, and aiming to kill people. Even tho, through the day, it became obvious that was not his tactic. He is targetting infrastructure, in particular

    Indeed some are still under this illusion right now:

    @Pulpstar

    "The Russian missile attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been. That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons."


    They weren't meant to be "deadly". They were meant to take out power and water. Whether they will succeed, and for how long, is the moot point
  • Interesting interview with Freeman Dyson, a physicist who worked at Bomber Command during WW2.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEe76a9hZZA

    Dyson: The Germans were being heavily bombed for about three years, so they got very good at civil defense. Whereas in Britain we were only bombed for six months, we never really got the hang of it. It was a huge difference. It actually took ten times as many bombs to kill one person in Germany as it did to kill one person in London. That was one of the reasons why the campaign failed, that the German civil defense was just very good. You can actually save people with civil defense. Most people are unaware of that. Civil defense does work. It would also work against nuclear bombs. Of course, that is a politically unpopular view, but it happens to be true.

    Kelly: Can you explain that?

    Dyson: Well, most of the people who are killed in nuclear bombing are killed by blast and fire, which is sort of old-fashioned, it has nothing to do nuclear radiation. Some people die of nuclear radiation, but that’s a small number by comparison. If you are five feet underground, you are very well shielded from all of that. So most people, even in a nuclear bombing, would survive, if they are five feet underground. Of course, in Hiroshima, they didn’t have that. If the Japanese had had a couple of years, they would have learned, and probably faster than that. It’s quite unrealistic to imagine that, with good civil defense, that Hiroshima would have been so devastating.

    I think its a bit creepy and an admission by Bomber Command that they wanted to kill as many men, women and children as possible . So lets not let anyone or any organisation get close again to thinking that is a suitable objective shall we?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Leon said:

    We really need Putin to run out of missiles, and soon. If he doesn't this is bad

    The Ukrainians are briefing that they're expecting the Russians to keep this up for about two weeks. Do you think your nerves can deal with that?
  • Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Then you have ardent supporters of the previous President who unironically fly the flag of America's sworn enemy in WWII and call themselves "Patriots".
    Japan?

    But in any case I thought we were past "bad person supports X therefore X is also bad".
    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Then you have ardent supporters of the previous President who unironically fly the flag of America's sworn enemy in WWII and call themselves "Patriots".
    Japan?

    But in any case I thought we were past "bad person supports X therefore X is also bad".
    No, not Japan.

    And the comment was more about how a section of American "patriots" now identify more with America's enemies past and present, than America itself.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    "Ladyzhyn thermal power plant in central Ukraine was struck again by the Russian troops, with victims reported by DTEK Ladyzhyn TPP.

    They indicate that the repeated shelling took place when rescuers were working at the site. According to preliminary info, six people were injured."

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1579810295681527808?s=20&t=OmLIUt1Hj9UOheAqq_Pdig


    This apparently was Putin's tactic in Aleppo. Bomb the power station, then attack it again when people go in to repair it, or rescue the wounded
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Give the Ukrainians their dues - the speed of repair is truly impressive. Need some of that efficiency on the pot holes near where I live.

    Yesterday, the #Russian missiles left huge holes in the middle of our cities. All night long, 🇺🇦services worked to restore the damaged road connections & public services. Step by step, we’ll bring our cities to a peaceful routine.

    📸Borys Filatov, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, Getty Images

    https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1579830263315828736
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited October 2022
    Pulpstar said:


    Don't cheat and head to Twitter

    "The Russian missile attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been. That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons."

    50 million Kwasi/BoE IOUs for anyone who can guess..

    The answer is.... The New York Times of course.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    This is an interesting read on the Kerch Bridge:

    https://theconversation.com/crimean-bridge-blast-experts-assess-the-damage-192161

    TLDR - it's probably OK for now as long as they don't put anything too heavy on it and keep speeds down. But - it will have shortened the life of the bridge and the piers will probably need replacing fairly soon.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    Is that Spaghetti Junction? General wear and tear. It'll be fine.
    I went pasta Spaghetti Junction the other day.

    It was all tangled up.
    If you are keen on the minutiae of Spaghetti Junction, there is an 'endearing' Youtube channel called Auto Shenanigans, which has a series of vids called "Secrets of the Motorway".

    Here's the one about Gravelly Hill.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PyC0APp4c8

    And about the lower end of the M1, and why it stops at Staples Corner, and what happened to M1 Junction 3.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF-aODgWmto
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    Leon said:

    We really need Putin to run out of missiles, and soon. If he doesn't this is bad

    The Ukrainians are briefing that they're expecting the Russians to keep this up for about two weeks. Do you think your nerves can deal with that?
    Yes, seeing as I will be in a series of five star hotels, working for The Gazette
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do.

    I find that sentence easier to parse if you replace the word "scientists" with "qualified people who know what they're talking about"; "government" with "people like Liz Truss, Kwazi Kwarteng and Jacob Rees-Mogg"; and "MPs" with "people like Michael Fabricant, Lucy Allan and Lee Anderson".

    Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?

    Not the one with Lee Anderson on it?
  • Leon said:

    "Ladyzhyn thermal power plant in central Ukraine was struck again by the Russian troops, with victims reported by DTEK Ladyzhyn TPP.

    They indicate that the repeated shelling took place when rescuers were working at the site. According to preliminary info, six people were injured."

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1579810295681527808?s=20&t=OmLIUt1Hj9UOheAqq_Pdig


    This apparently was Putin's tactic in Aleppo. Bomb the power station, then attack it again when people go in to repair it, or rescue the wounded

    I think the Russian thinking is that Ukraine hit their infrastructure (the bridge) so they are going to double down on ukraines infrastructure. All very macho and all that but an indication that wars like this get escalated (as everyone has the must win mindset) .
    To de-escalate there needs to be an end to so so must win or so and so must lose .That is the stuff of playground war when you are 10 . Needs some adults around the world to end this
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Life does seem to have got very uncertain in so many spheres so quickly. It just feels like everything is broken. An overreaction, of course - but that level of unease that we have all had the best years of this century is hard to shake.

    Well if you could stop willing the Actual Apocalypse, that might improve things
    Grow up.

    You effeminately bemoan the end of the world, then you demand we attack Putin directly. Failing to see there might be some connection between these two things

    You've gone fucking nuts, like too many on here
    Where have I said "we attack Putin directly"?

    Go and post on the ILoveMakingShitUp site. You'd go down a storm there....
    You're now so insane you accused me of being a "fucking appeaser" and a "Putinist shill" for saying.... "it might have been a truck"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/11/ministers-may-face-legal-action-documents-queen-hidden-wealth

    More Royalty not following the law of the land, or rather changing it to suit their private interests.

    'In 1973 the Queen dispatched her private lawyer to lobby the government to change a proposed law that would allow the public to establish who owned shares in specific companies. Her lawyer argued that disclosure of her shareholdings would be “embarrassing”.

    A special exemption was inserted into the proposed law, according to an internal Whitehall document written in 2011, “to avoid a situation where for example ownership of specific shares by members of the royal family could become widely known”.

    The shell company, operated by senior individuals at the Bank of England, was set up in 1977 “to hold royal investments”, according to the document.

    “This vehicle, relevant trustees and investment managers and certain members of the royal family were granted an exemption from the requirement to disclose an interest in a company’s shares,” the document added.'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    I would be very surprised if Newsom was the Democratic candidate: I think he'd even struggle to win California.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    edited October 2022

    Leon said:

    "Ladyzhyn thermal power plant in central Ukraine was struck again by the Russian troops, with victims reported by DTEK Ladyzhyn TPP.

    They indicate that the repeated shelling took place when rescuers were working at the site. According to preliminary info, six people were injured."

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1579810295681527808?s=20&t=OmLIUt1Hj9UOheAqq_Pdig


    This apparently was Putin's tactic in Aleppo. Bomb the power station, then attack it again when people go in to repair it, or rescue the wounded

    I think the Russian thinking is that Ukraine hit their infrastructure (the bridge) so they are going to double down on ukraines infrastructure. All very macho and all that but an indication that wars like this get escalated (as everyone has the must win mindset) .
    To de-escalate there needs to be an end to so so must win or so and so must lose .That is the stuff of playground war when you are 10 . Needs some adults around the world to end this
    Well, they shouldn't look in PB. There are now very few adults on here. As you and I have both noted

    Tho I disagree on the reason for this new infrastructure attack. This is a noted Russian tactic which they used in Aleppo. It's not simply a reaction to the Kerch bombing (tho that must have shaped the timing)

    Apparently the Russians have been brewing this for a while
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Thread by a senior research associate at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation on @Leon ‘s armistice call.
    (She’s a Russia specialist.)

    https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1579811167945773058
    @AlexGabuev argues for crisis diplomacy toward an “armistice that will freeze the front lines” in #Ukraine, should nuclear risks become intolerable

    Barring fundamental changes in #Russian war aims, this won’t get us off the escalation ladder for long….

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158

    FPT:
    EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001.
    UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015.
    Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.

    You can choose your dates to create whatever narrative you like. If I did 2008 to 2022 it would look rather different, as I would be cherry picking to get the maximum negative on EUR-USD.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Ukraine has got the same idea and struck a substation in Shebekino, Belgorod.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    Is that Spaghetti Junction? General wear and tear. It'll be fine.
    I went pasta Spaghetti Junction the other day.

    It was all tangled up.
    Noodling around with your puns again ?
    Yes, but it has to be said I've penned better ones than that.
    Farfallen from your usual high standard.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158

    One thing Truss is quite good on is reversing the Alastair-Campbellisation of government.

    @jessicaelgot
    PM’s spokesman confirms today he will no longer be attending cabinet. Only ministers in the room, as per PM’s request. Under previous government, spokesman always attended in order to be able to answer questions on the discussion & for transparency.


    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1579785299009605634

    I *broadly* agree with that... but so long as they're a non-speaking observer, doesn't it help to have the spokesperson hear any discussion and to understand any decision?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    AlistairM said:

    Underside of Kerch road bridge doesn't look in very good condition to my untrained eye.

    The state of the Antonivskyi bridge in occupied Kherson.

    👌✅

    Or should we say ❌ no Russians driving there anymore.


    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579818087544913920

    Is that Spaghetti Junction? General wear and tear. It'll be fine.
    I went pasta Spaghetti Junction the other day.

    It was all tangled up.
    Noodling around with your puns again ?
    Yes, but it has to be said I've penned better ones than that.
    Farfalle’s sake, you two, gnocchi it off.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158

    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Russia adds Zuckerberg's Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to the list of "terrorist and extremist organizations," state media reports.


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579798547608002562

    One wonders if Musk's Twitter will get the same treatment, given his recent comments.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    Leon said:

    We really need Putin to run out of missiles, and soon. If he doesn't this is bad

    The Ukrainians are briefing that they're expecting the Russians to keep this up for about two weeks. Do you think your nerves can deal with that?
    And if they are briefing 2 weeks, I assume their intelligence is telling them that is 75 percentile; it'll probably be less (but there's an outside possibility it will be a little longer).

    If the Russians have any sense they will gradually reduce the intensity so they can keep it going longer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    rcs1000 said:

    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Russia adds Zuckerberg's Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to the list of "terrorist and extremist organizations," state media reports.


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579798547608002562

    One wonders if Musk's Twitter will get the same treatment, given his recent comments.
    Isn't there a sweetheart deal to be done with Starlink geoblocking ?
  • Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
    It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
    In the Ulternative Universe, everything is a gamble ;)

    Now, what’s Tulsi Gabbard up to? Running for something as an independent or Libertarian, or sweet-talking DeSantis and Trump to be on the ticket?
    With her attack on the impeachment process, unrestrained love of Putin & Assad, the verbal diarrhoea of Right Wing Twitter talking points in her resignation statement and the American media's love of "bipartisanship" I think she is well positioned to be Trump's running mate.
    I look forward to a new efflorescence of 'I'm no fan of Tulsi but' chat on PB.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    MattW said:

    Germany seems to have been woken up (slightly) by Putin latest attacks on civilian targets:

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-quickly-send-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/a-63397544

    Of course, there are defensive missile systems available in the West which could stop most of these attacks in their tracks (hypersonic perhaps excepted), without even getting into a debate about NATO vs Russian aircraft.

    But they need to be supplied.

    Germany has gotten increasingly steadfast as the war has continued:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/scholz-urge-putin-withdraw-troop-germany-face-call-send-ukraine-tank-russia-war/

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/putin-must-recognize-he-cannot-win-ukraine-war-olaf-scholz-says-at-un.html
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:
    EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001.
    UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015.
    Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.

    You can choose your dates to create whatever narrative you like. If I did 2008 to 2022 it would look rather different, as I would be cherry picking to get the maximum negative on EUR-USD.
    That's why you don't cherry pick years and you certainly don't take 2008, when the world was at maximum pre-GFC distortion, as your point of comparison. I chose 2001 simply because it was 20 years prior to the last data point. You could choose any year around then and get a similar result. The point is, the EU economy has broadly kept pace with the US over the last couple of decades - as did the UK, until Brexit.
  • rcs1000 said:

    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Russia adds Zuckerberg's Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to the list of "terrorist and extremist organizations," state media reports.


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579798547608002562

    One wonders if Musk's Twitter will get the same treatment, given his recent comments.
    If they dont it may be a good indication they want a negotiated settlement as Musk is saying there needs to be
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Nigelb said:

    Thread by a senior research associate at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation on @Leon ‘s armistice call.
    (She’s a Russia specialist.)

    https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1579811167945773058
    @AlexGabuev argues for crisis diplomacy toward an “armistice that will freeze the front lines” in #Ukraine, should nuclear risks become intolerable

    Barring fundamental changes in #Russian war aims, this won’t get us off the escalation ladder for long….

    She makes good points

    Especially this one:

    "Side note: It should be possible to have these debates without immediately falling victim to criticism that one is wavering in support of #Ukraine, or “appeasing” #Russia.

    @drfranksauer
    said this eloquently with a view to the German debate: https://twitter.com/drfranksauer/status/1579077052535570433 (3/15)"


    https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1579811172957949954?s=20&t=BiX7aK3bM0Ayd4g5WURtqw
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Remarkable. Treasury cttee chair Mel Stride asks Kwarteng for assurance on the floor of the House that he will "reach out" across the party ahead of next fiscal statement to avoid repeating markets fiasco
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1579834894527893507
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    glw said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She appears to have gone full moonbat, and she was at least 75% of the way there beforehand.
    LOL.
    Tulsi Gabbard is the Glenn Greenwald of Jill Steins.
    https://twitter.com/Wolfrum/status/1579814536097730563
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Nigelb said:

    Thread by a senior research associate at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation on @Leon ‘s armistice call.
    (She’s a Russia specialist.)

    https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1579811167945773058
    @AlexGabuev argues for crisis diplomacy toward an “armistice that will freeze the front lines” in #Ukraine, should nuclear risks become intolerable

    Barring fundamental changes in #Russian war aims, this won’t get us off the escalation ladder for long….

    Outstanding thread.

    Ru will use a ceasefire to regroup and then start to push again. Ukr would have lost momentum. They dump Putin, then maybe we can talk.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Aggressively doubling down on failure. https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1579834816828428288
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Germany seems to have been woken up (slightly) by Putin latest attacks on civilian targets:

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-quickly-send-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/a-63397544

    Of course, there are defensive missile systems available in the West which could stop most of these attacks in their tracks (hypersonic perhaps excepted), without even getting into a debate about NATO vs Russian aircraft.

    But they need to be supplied.

    Germany has gotten increasingly steadfast as the war has continued:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/scholz-urge-putin-withdraw-troop-germany-face-call-send-ukraine-tank-russia-war/

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/putin-must-recognize-he-cannot-win-ukraine-war-olaf-scholz-says-at-un.html
    A lot of people are making the mistake of assuming unanimity in a direction on this in Germany.

    Large chunks of the political class want help for Ukraine. Another large chunk finds the idea of anything like a conflict with Russia disturbing.

    Scholz seems to be oscillating between positions on this - oking weapons shipments, then delaying them.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,992
    edited October 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:
    EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001.
    UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015.
    Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.

    You can choose your dates to create whatever narrative you like. If I did 2008 to 2022 it would look rather different, as I would be cherry picking to get the maximum negative on EUR-USD.
    That's why you don't cherry pick years and you certainly don't take 2008, when the world was at maximum pre-GFC distortion, as your point of comparison. I chose 2001 simply because it was 20 years prior to the last data point. You could choose any year around then and get a similar result. The point is, the EU economy has broadly kept pace with the US over the last couple of decades - as did the UK, until Brexit.
    Except its not true. 2021 dodgy is data due to Covid, and different ways of reporting Covid data.

    If you look at the approximately quarter of a century pre-Covid since the EEC became the EU (1993 - 2019) then the data is the polar opposite of what you claim:

    1993 (Start of EU):
    USA 6.859 tn

    France 1.323 (19%)
    Germany 2.071 tn (30%)
    Italy 1.065 tn (16% )
    UK 1.061 tn (15%)
    Big 4 Combined 5.52 tn (80%)

    2019 (Final pre-Covid year):
    USA $20.94 tn

    France 2.716 tn (13% down 6%)
    Germany 3.861 tn (18% down 12%)
    Italy 2.005 tn (10% down 6%)
    UK 2.831 tn (14% down 1%)
    Big 4 Combined 11.413 tn (55% down 25%)

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We really need Putin to run out of missiles, and soon. If he doesn't this is bad

    The Ukrainians are briefing that they're expecting the Russians to keep this up for about two weeks. Do you think your nerves can deal with that?
    Yes, seeing as I will be in a series of five star hotels, working for The Gazette
    That is a pleasure to hear.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We really need Putin to run out of missiles, and soon. If he doesn't this is bad

    The Ukrainians are briefing that they're expecting the Russians to keep this up for about two weeks. Do you think your nerves can deal with that?
    Yes, seeing as I will be in a series of five star hotels, working for The Gazette
    That is a pleasure to hear.
    ... with plenty of time to post on here
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Don't cheat and head to Twitter

    "The Russian missile attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been. That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons."

    50 million Kwasi/BoE IOUs for anyone who can guess..

    The answer is.... The New York Times of course.
    Weird passive voice sort of thing should have been a huge giveaway.
This discussion has been closed.