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Biden’s moving back up in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
imageBiden’s moving back up in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

One thing that is becoming clear is that Joe Biden is moving upwards in the White House race betting for 2024 but will he stand given that he celebrates his 80th birthday next month?

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    FPT: I would say comparing the EU 27 to the whole US makes most sense because they are similar sizes, so long as we're doing like for like across the period. The EU has rich and slow growing states, rich and fast-growing states, poor and fast growing and poor and slow growing. So does the US.

    If we were instead looking at EEC12 then the appropriate comparison would be with the 20 or so richest US states as of the start of the 1990s, whichever they were.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Oh, and First
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    I think the Ukraine situation and Trump's continued popularity amongst the GOP has led Biden to the conclusion he should stay on as an experienced old hand in global affairs/congress jiggery pokery rather than letting Harris have a go.
    If the situation was more benign he'd probably call it a day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 11
    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    In big political news of the day, unless I don’t understand Labour Party at all, looks like Starmer has lost his battle with the Union Paymasters to keep policy and communications in his own office, not lose it into Party HQ under the General Secretary. The Union Barons have chopped Starmer’s office and influence down to nothing, clearly excited by the opinion polls putting them in power. Park their tanks on the lawn in number ten, and get out their beer and sandwich’s - ironically with a lot of Tories voting Labour next time 🤣

    I’m sure there will be some replies “Union Baron power in Labour? There’s no Union Baron Power in Labour!” 😇

    Off topic. The big political story today, the defenestration of Starmer’s office.
    Who had control of the communist party in the Soviet Union?
    The General Secretary. Fact.
    Who has control over UK Trade Unions?
    The General Secretary. Fact.
    Whose been handed much more control over Policy and Communications in Labour today?
    The General Secretary.
    Starmer not even allowed to appoint and have a Chief of Staff anymore! 😆
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    I think you mean Biden deciding to go for the 2024 election not 2020 election OGH?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,304
    edited October 11
    I would tend to agree with Roger that the most urgent topic today is that the Bank of England thinks we're still in the soup.

    Labour is always interesting at the moment , though. I think if anything unions have had too little power in the US and the UK for 30 years, leading to increasingly widely recognised distortions in their economies. All these things matter in the moment, with Labour so close to power and union man Biden already there.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,224
    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    Michelle Obama?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,224
    What's this new word "liberalist" then? Truss is apparently one so I'm assuming it's a bad thing?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    I would tend to agree with Roger that the most urgent topic today is that the Bank of England thinks we're still in the soup.

    I think if anything unions have had too little power in the US and the UK for 30 years, leading to increasingly widely recognised distortions in their economies.

    Tory voters intending to vote Union Barons into power is a non story? 🤔
  • Matter *at * the moment, that should have said, although in the moment might equally well fit, too.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    FPT:
    EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001.
    UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015.
    Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    If the Ukrainians get these on target then they will be devastating.

    M30A1 227mm rockets loaded onto a Ukrainian M142 HIMARS with inscriptions suggesting revenge for Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.

    M30A1 - GMLRS rocket that replaces M30's submunitions with around 182k tungsten fragments for area effects without unexploded ordnance.

    https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1579790973739024387
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited October 11
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    Michelle Obama?
    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

    You're aware that there's a big pile of people layable for POTUS at ~ 30s -> 200-1 every 4 years for the simple fact they're non runners ?

    M Obama is very much in that group.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 555
    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,304
    edited October 11

    I would tend to agree with Roger that the most urgent topic today is that the Bank of England thinks we're still in the soup.

    I think if anything unions have had too little power in the US and the UK for 30 years, leading to increasingly widely recognised distortions in their economies.

    Tory voters intending to vote Union Barons into power is a non story? 🤔
    Perhaps a better way of looking would be that there are so many big stories, at the moment ; we're in some sort of crucible of different events. On the topic of Labour, I certainly think a lot of ex-Tory voters and switchers happily, knowingly handed the union barons a little more beer and sandwiches influence in the 1960's and the 1970's, and Wilson is the model Starmer looks to again. Social and material, or financial, aspiration together.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 11
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    Michelle Obama?
    She is not interested
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,224
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    Michelle Obama?
    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

    You're aware that there's a big pile of people layable for POTUS at ~ 30s -> 200-1 every 4 years ?

    M Obama is very much in that group.
    Less of the sardonic smilies if you please. I tipped and backed her @ triple the price she is now. With supporting cast-iron reasoning too (involving a complex and creative analogy to Star Wars, Princess Leia and Obi Wan Kenobi). One of my best.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited October 11
    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    That sucks. I appreciate you won't want to give all the details (And nor should you !) on a public forum but what was the % reduction ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,224
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    Michelle Obama?
    She is not interested
    Probably not, no. But if she changes her mind, just imagine ... talk about shaking things up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,092
    edited October 11
    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    Mixed metaphor. If you put Step-Dad ... but commiserations!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259

    I would tend to agree with Roger that the most urgent topic today is that the Bank of England thinks we're still in the soup.

    Labour is always interesting at the moment , though. I think if anything unions have had too little power in the US and the UK for 30 years, leading to increasingly widely recognised distortions in their economies. All these things matter in the moment, with Labour so close to power and union man Biden already there.

    Yes, this is a massively significant. Some things can be spun or eased by the slow massage of time, but the government destroying your pension by sheer arrogance and incompetence? I can't see any way back from this. I think we're talking the end of a major British political party here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    One thing Truss is quite good on is reversing the Alastair-Campbellisation of government.

    @jessicaelgot
    PM’s spokesman confirms today he will no longer be attending cabinet. Only ministers in the room, as per PM’s request. Under previous government, spokesman always attended in order to be able to answer questions on the discussion & for transparency.


    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1579785299009605634
  • theProletheProle Posts: 697
    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    This a remortgage, new purchase?
    If this is a remortgage and people are getting "trapped" on expensive variable rates because they are no longer eligible for new fixed rate offers, this is really going to end in tears...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    theProle said:

    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    This a remortgage, new purchase?
    If this is a remortgage and people are getting "trapped" on expensive variable rates because they are no longer eligible for new fixed rate offers, this is really going to end in tears...
    Why? The fixies wouldn't be any more affordable...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    One thing Truss is quite good on is reversing the Alastair-Campbellisation of government.

    @jessicaelgot
    PM’s spokesman confirms today he will no longer be attending cabinet. Only ministers in the room, as per PM’s request. Under previous government, spokesman always attended in order to be able to answer questions on the discussion & for transparency.


    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1579785299009605634

    We've come a long way from Allegra fronting a nightly No 10 TV show haven't we?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    One thing Truss is quite good on is reversing the Alastair-Campbellisation of government.

    @jessicaelgot
    PM’s spokesman confirms today he will no longer be attending cabinet. Only ministers in the room, as per PM’s request. Under previous government, spokesman always attended in order to be able to answer questions on the discussion & for transparency.


    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1579785299009605634

    You sure that’s a good thing?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Russia adds Zuckerberg's Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to the list of "terrorist and extremist organizations," state media reports.


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579798547608002562
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    edited October 11

    One thing Truss is quite good on is reversing the Alastair-Campbellisation of government.

    @jessicaelgot
    PM’s spokesman confirms today he will no longer be attending cabinet. Only ministers in the room, as per PM’s request. Under previous government, spokesman always attended in order to be able to answer questions on the discussion & for transparency.


    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1579785299009605634

    Liz has turned the era of Alastair Campbell into a monument for governmental competence.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    Sorry to hear this.

    What a roller coaster we are now on.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    I have £72 on Biden at 8.43 currently.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 555
    Pulpstar said:

    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    That sucks. I appreciate you won't want to give all the details (And nor should you !) on a public forum but what was the % reduction ?
    Don't have the figures to hand, but about 6% between the old offer and the new limit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 697
    IshmaelZ said:

    theProle said:

    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    This a remortgage, new purchase?
    If this is a remortgage and people are getting "trapped" on expensive variable rates because they are no longer eligible for new fixed rate offers, this is really going to end in tears...
    Why? The fixies wouldn't be any more affordable...
    It depends how outrageous the variable rate is, and also if it prevents people getting better deals after crossing LtV thresholds etc.
    Also anything which locks people down to one provider also tends to result in abuse by the provider of their captive audience.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    Germany seems to have been woken up (slightly) by Putin latest attacks on civilian targets:

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-quickly-send-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/a-63397544

    Of course, there are defensive missile systems available in the West which could stop most of these attacks in their tracks (hypersonic perhaps excepted), without even getting into a debate about NATO vs Russian aircraft.

    But they need to be supplied.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 555
    theProle said:

    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    This a remortgage, new purchase?
    If this is a remortgage and people are getting "trapped" on expensive variable rates because they are no longer eligible for new fixed rate offers, this is really going to end in tears...
    Remortgage. Luckily I can afford the difference without too much of a hit, but there must be loads of people unable to do so.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,467
    edited October 11
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Apologies for coming over all Leon, but I believe I have seen the beginning of the Scottish Revolution. School kids in Edinburgh are on the march towards the city centre, behind their teacher leaders who are waving saltire flags.

    All our talk of a referendum earlier will be rather academic once the school kids have seized Waverley.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    I'm assuming only Supreme Court would work for her as an alternative rather than say Ambassador to France.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    MattW said:

    Germany seems to have been woken up (slightly) by Putin latest attacks on civilian targets:

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-quickly-send-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/a-63397544

    Of course, there are defensive missile systems available in the West which could stop most of these attacks in their tracks (hypersonic perhaps excepted), without even getting into a debate about NATO vs Russian aircraft.

    But they need to be supplied.

    It is indefensible that Ukraine has had to suffer this level of damage before what is left of their cities gets defended.

    Now let the Leopards out to play, Germany.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Highly implausible for most potential presidents. Triply so Biden, the ultimate Democrat insider.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Life does seem to have got very uncertain in so many spheres so quickly. It just feels like everything is broken. An overreaction, of course - but that level of unease that we have all had the best years of this century is hard to shake.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,487

    Apologies for coming over all Leon, but I believe I have seen the beginning of the Scottish Revolution. School kids in Edinburgh are on the march towards the city centre, behind their teacher leaders who are waving saltire flags.

    All our talk of a referendum earlier will be rather academic once the school kids have seized Waverley.

    Once they get into Waverley there will be an inordinately long delay before they come out again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
  • EPG said:

    EPG said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.

    The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.

    It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
    For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.

    No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
    You won't like me saying this, but the party's problem is Brexit. At least, the way the party spent decades seeing Europhobia as being the only 'true' Conservatism.

    Anyone who was Eurosceptic got called Europhile because only Europhobes were truly anti-Europe. Vast amounts of talent were chucked out of the party, or discouraged from joining, because they were not seen as being strongly enough anti-Europe. This left a very weak talent pool, and we are reaping the consequences.

    Europhobia is a madness that has destroyed the Conservative Party. For many, such as Bone or JRM, it is all that matters.
    There's some truth in that and it works both ways. There was an institutional europhilia that for years defied what the median British person wanted on the EU, and they were roundly ignored. And for every Nigel Farage there was a Guy Verhofstadht. For every Bill Cash a Jean-Claude Junker.

    Now, you certainly argue that "Brexit" as delivered is a problem and has corrupted the Conservative Party. But you also have to acknowledge that EU fealty and fatalism about Ever Closer Union also corrupted the other parties before, and arguably since.

    What most people mean when they say the party's problem is Brexit is that they want it revoked and to go to the status quo antebellum, whereupon all our problems will be magically solved. That fuels some of the extreme dogma and paranoia on the other side. Both really hate each other and are deeply suspicious of one another.

    What we desperately need is a new moderate consensus on our post-EU future, or the war will never end.
    There’s a fair bit of truth in that OP. But it needn’t have been like that.

    Brexit was allowed to become, by and within the conservatives, a test of purity, where any attempt at reconciliation with the real, pragmatic, world is denounced as heresy, and so politics detaches from reality in a way often seen in revolutions. What we have missed is a Cromwell or Napoleon figure who would turn on and marginalise the extremists and bring (or try, at least, in Cromwell’s case) the ‘project’ back toward the centre. I had hoped Mrs May would do the necessary, but she proved too weak, too stubborn, and too desperate to prove her credentials to the leavers.

    “Norway for now” (which might have led either to “Norway forever” or moves toward further detachment, when we were ready and had thought things through) was always the most sensible position - but the last time leavers were willing to accept and talk about this was when they still needed our votes in the referendum.
    One of the problems with the Norway for Now option was that it had been unnecessarily trashed well before the referendum. Whilst some elements of Leave were very keen on it, others were only pushing it as it seemed a less violent jump into the dark and more easily sold to the public so they used it without ever actually believing in it. At the same time Remain hated it because they thought it was an effective argument in favour of Brexit and so went after it hammer and tongs for fear it made Leave more likely to win.

    So by the time Leave did actually win, both sides had thoroughly undermined the most reasonable and obvious post-Brexit destination. Brexit wasn't an act of self-harm any more than leaving a sinking ship would be. Choosing to abandon the lifeboats because they still had the name of the ship on the side of them was.
    We didn't leave the ship because it was sinking, we left because some of us thought it was heading to the wrong port, and they decided it would be preferable to swim.
    Nope, for many of us it was definitely sinking. You might not see it that way but there were plenty who did and still do.
    So it was sinking six years ago and it's still sinking? It's hardly going down like the Titanic.
    Its been sinking for decades.

    There's more than one way of going down.

    I repeat the point I've oft-made before, in the 80s Thatcher proudly boasted that the Single Market would be bigger than America.

    Its now vastly smaller than America, and was pre-Brexit.

    What is that, if not sinking?
    EU population: 450 million
    USA population: 325 million
    EU GDP: $17.9 trillion
    USA GDP: $20.9 trillion

    EU GDP per capita: $39.8k
    USA GDP per capita: $63.5k

    The EU Single Market, as used by the EU, is a failure. Its taken a Europe that was economically bigger than America, and made it one much smaller than America.
    Well, it's a good thing she didn't mention nominal GDP then.
    She did. "A single market ... bigger than the United States", markets tend to be measured in nominal GDP and in 1988 it was true. Measuring in GDP in 1988 the 12 nations of the EEC was considerably wealthier than the USA.

    By 2016 the 28 nations the EU were not. America has grown in leaps and bounds, while the "Single Market" has ossified and failed to do so.

    America has its problems, largely race based, but when it comes to the economy Europe absolutely has been sinking.
    Not true. The EU27 economy in 2021 was 87% of the size of the US economy ($20.3trn vs $23.3trn). Twenty years previously in 2001 it was 85% of the size ($9.0trn vs $10.6trn).
    Odd that you would cherrypick 2001 as the date for the comparison, especially given the expansion to Eastern Europe occurred just after that and Eastern Europe absolutely has grown of course.

    1988 when the quotation was made would be a better comparison.

    Try running your numbers again since 1988, ideally with the EEC12 rather than the EU27, or with the EU27 if you prefer since its still the same result even bearing in mind of course growth in Eastern Europe flatters the EU27.
    I didn't cherry pick anything. I chose 2001 simply because it was twenty years prior to 2021, the last available date with numbers. I chose the EU27 because that is the EU and you were comparing the EU to the US, not a subset of one to the other. Eastern Europe has indeed grown strongly, precisely because they joined the EU and gained access to the single market. Why do you think Ukraine is so eager to join?
    The fact is, over a long period of time growth in the EU has kept up with growth in the US. While UK GDP has fallen from 16% of US GDP to 13% over the same period. And *all* of that relative decline has happened since 2015. I wonder what might have happened in 2016 to have made that happen? If you want to find a sinking ship, look closer to home.
    The sick man of Europe once again.
    I was comparing western, developed Europe, which is why I chose 1988 and the EEC, which was a valid comparison.

    If you want to make individual nation comparisons, then 2021 is extremely dodgy due to Covid and different nations measure GDP under Covid differently, the last non-Covid data available is for 2019.

    1993 was when the EEC became the EU and was roughly a quarter of a century before 2019 so seems an appropriate starting point to look at, so lets look since then.

    1993 (Start of EU):
    USA 6.859 tn

    France 1.323 (19%)
    Germany 2.071 tn (30%)
    Italy 1.065 tn (16% )
    UK 1.061 tn (15%)
    Big 4 Combined 5.52 tn (80%)

    2019 (Final pre-Covid year):
    USA $20.94 tn

    France 2.716 tn (13% down 6%)
    Germany 3.861 tn (18% down 12%)
    Italy 2.005 tn (10% down 6%)
    UK 2.831 tn (14% down 1%)
    Big 4 Combined 11.413 tn (55% down 35%)

    The UK has performed least-worst of the four nations in that time period, but all are down considerably.

    Hardly a roaring success for the EU Single Market, is it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Unpopular said:

    theProle said:

    Unpopular said:

    Welp, that's my mortgage offer pulled, and replaced with an amount that does not cover the remaining sum. That's absolutely wild, and I'm lucky enough to be in a position to pay the bank the difference but if I'm in this position a lot of people are absolutely fucked. Like a Porn Hub Step-Mom being conscripted into the Turkish Army level of fucked.

    This a remortgage, new purchase?
    If this is a remortgage and people are getting "trapped" on expensive variable rates because they are no longer eligible for new fixed rate offers, this is really going to end in tears...
    Remortgage. Luckily I can afford the difference without too much of a hit, but there must be loads of people unable to do so.
    If this lot isn't sorted by 2025 I'll probably extend the term whilst going with Nationwide. I think 2 Yr is right out, unless you're very very bearish indeed on everything so the real choice is between a tracker and 5 year.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    I'm assuming only Supreme Court would work for her as an alternative rather than say Ambassador to France.

    Well, if you were veep, what would you accept as a “promotion”? It’s a very short list of jobs…
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 335

    FPT:
    EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001.
    UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015.
    Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.

    At least 11 countries joined the EU in that period. Would have been a shock if their GDP as % of USA didn't go up a bit!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited October 11
    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    edited October 11

    Apologies for coming over all Leon, but I believe I have seen the beginning of the Scottish Revolution. School kids in Edinburgh are on the march towards the city centre, behind their teacher leaders who are waving saltire flags.

    All our talk of a referendum earlier will be rather academic once the school kids have seized Waverley.

    Looks like the Scottish voters are completely united behind them in remaining completely split.




    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence


    If the SNP can't get regular 60+% support for independence under this shambles of a government (which will continue to say No) what chance can they have of a regular 60+% once there is a decent moderate unionist government in place?

    IMHO NS knows perfectly well that this isn't going to happen because there isn't the real support for it. And there isn't support because it is the sub-optimal option. NS is exceedingly weak on her difficult issues: currency; central bank; EU and land borders (see Brexit and NI multiplied by 50); we support NATO but oppose central plank of policy and look like appeasers.

    The SC stunt and next GE stunt are designed to get NS to about 10 years in leadership without having to bring the matter to a head and keep being able to blame someone else for the hard fact that Scottish support simply isn't sufficiently robust for SNP to succeed. She will stand down by 2025.
  • The Bank of England are absolutely messing around with the gilt market. They're buying bonds to "stabilise" things but are saying they'll end their purchases this week, and will be selling £80bn of bonds over the next 12 months.

    Markets aren't stupid, if they expect the Bank to be a seller, instead of a purchaser, of bonds then they'll be looking beyond this weeks actions.

    The Bank needs to stop messing around. No point buying this week and signalling you'll be selling far more afterwards, and expecting that signal not to be taken into account.

    If the Bank wants some stability, they need to take QT off the table. Say they will neither be purchasing, nor selling bonds for the foreseeable future unless circumstances change.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    One thing Truss is quite good on is reversing the Alastair-Campbellisation of government.

    Yes, Alastair Fucking Campbell is now the high watermark for transparency and good governance.

    FFS
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    ...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,467

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Thomas and Alito are too old for the job but sadly neither of them will leave it, especially not if a Dem chooses their replacement. Sotomayer's getting on a bit by normal standards but 68 isn't so old for the great American gerontocracy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    BREAKING: Scientists have confirmed Liz Truss is a robot created by Vladimir Putin to destroy the UK economy. She might be the deadliest weapon of mass desTrussction the world has ever seen x
    https://twitter.com/LKTranslator/status/1579805953503154177
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    The Bank of England are absolutely messing around with the gilt market. They're buying bonds to "stabilise" things but are saying they'll end their purchases this week, and will be selling £80bn of bonds over the next 12 months.

    Markets aren't stupid, if they expect the Bank to be a seller, instead of a purchaser, of bonds then they'll be looking beyond this weeks actions.

    The Bank needs to stop messing around. No point buying this week and signalling you'll be selling far more afterwards, and expecting that signal not to be taken into account.

    If the Bank wants some stability, they need to take QT off the table. Say they will neither be purchasing, nor selling bonds for the foreseeable future unless circumstances change.

    The BoE is basically saying to the gov't "Please stop !"
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,467

    I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.

    Biden's fine. He trips over his words and says inappropriate shit but he's always done that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    edited October 11

    The Bank of England are absolutely messing around with the gilt market. They're buying bonds to "stabilise" things but are saying they'll end their purchases this week, and will be selling £80bn of bonds over the next 12 months.

    Markets aren't stupid, if they expect the Bank to be a seller, instead of a purchaser, of bonds then they'll be looking beyond this weeks actions.

    The Bank needs to stop messing around. No point buying this week and signalling you'll be selling far more afterwards, and expecting that signal not to be taken into account.

    If the Bank wants some stability, they need to take QT off the table. Say they will neither be purchasing, nor selling bonds for the foreseeable future unless circumstances change.

    Quite. Is the media going to go with 'Bank of England forced to take action again!' every time they buy some bonds - exactly what they've been doing non-stop for a decade?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771

    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Russia adds Zuckerberg's Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to the list of "terrorist and extremist organizations," state media reports.


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579798547608002562

    A stopped clock...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    It would show that Trump intends to be a president that can work with Democrats in his second term. A bridge building moment.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    The only realistic opportunity Biden had to put Harris in the supreme court was the Breyer seat, which he gave to Brown Jackson.

    The oldest justices now are Thomas (74) and Alito (72), both of whom you would expect to hang for a Republican President and Senate. The oldest leftwing justice is Sotomayor (68)

    So we shouldn't expect a Supreme Court vacancy soon, barring an unexpected death.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    edited October 11

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?

    EDIT: Yup on there on Betfair 4.1/50. Not attractive odds!

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    Quite. Is the media going to go with 'Bank of England forced to take action again!' every time they buy some bonds - exactly what they've been doing non-stop for a decade?

    “Two interventions in 24 hours is pretty extraordinary,” said Sandra Holdsworth of Aegon Asset Management, adding that the Bank of England's steps showed how the problem in the pension industry was “much bigger than anyone thought a week ago”

    https://www.ft.com/content/d9e46bb3-6bdd-416e-9ec6-e43b8af5fb30
  • DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.

    The big challenge for Labour is that they have always relied on the Cons leaving them a nice financial inheritance. How do they keep their members and the unions happy if there is no money to spend?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,467
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
    It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864

    Life does seem to have got very uncertain in so many spheres so quickly. It just feels like everything is broken. An overreaction, of course - but that level of unease that we have all had the best years of this century is hard to shake.

    Well if you could stop willing the Actual Apocalypse, that might improve things
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259

    The Bank of England are absolutely messing around with the gilt market. They're buying bonds to "stabilise" things but are saying they'll end their purchases this week, and will be selling £80bn of bonds over the next 12 months.

    Markets aren't stupid, if they expect the Bank to be a seller, instead of a purchaser, of bonds then they'll be looking beyond this weeks actions.

    The Bank needs to stop messing around. No point buying this week and signalling you'll be selling far more afterwards, and expecting that signal not to be taken into account.

    If the Bank wants some stability, they need to take QT off the table. Say they will neither be purchasing, nor selling bonds for the foreseeable future unless circumstances change.

    Sorry, but blaming all this on the BoE won't help Liz. It just makes her look like some timid, overawed and powerless little thing sucking her thumb as the tumult rages around her. She really does need to resign and put herself, and us, out of this misery.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    £2 BACK at 170 for me. It won't happen but it might shorten.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The Bank of England are absolutely messing around with the gilt market. They're buying bonds to "stabilise" things but are saying they'll end their purchases this week, and will be selling £80bn of bonds over the next 12 months.

    Markets aren't stupid, if they expect the Bank to be a seller, instead of a purchaser, of bonds then they'll be looking beyond this weeks actions.

    The Bank needs to stop messing around. No point buying this week and signalling you'll be selling far more afterwards, and expecting that signal not to be taken into account.

    If the Bank wants some stability, they need to take QT off the table. Say they will neither be purchasing, nor selling bonds for the foreseeable future unless circumstances change.

    The BoE is basically saying to the gov't "Please stop !"
    The Government have already stopped their £2bn proposal.

    The BoE is still continuing with their £80bn proposal.

    The Bank need to take QT off the table. The ECB are not talking about QT right now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    edited October 11

    I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.

    Biden's fine. He trips over his words and says inappropriate shit but he's always done that.
    This is the debate. I don't believe every time someone pushes a Twitter meme of him behaving oddly, but let's be honest that this is about the individual not the age.
    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,224

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Thomas and Alito are too old for the job but sadly neither of them will leave it, especially not if a Dem chooses their replacement. Sotomayer's getting on a bit by normal standards but 68 isn't so old for the great American gerontocracy.
    And especially not if it's Kamala Harris. SCOTUS is already far too politicised for its own good - making the VP a Justice isn't exactly going to help!
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
    It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
    if she was going to do it, it would have happened by now. Supreme Court justices tend to stand down in the summer when the court is in recess.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
    It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
    In the Ulternative Universe, everything is a gamble ;)

    Now, what’s Tulsi Gabbard up to? Running for something as an independent or Libertarian, or sweet-talking DeSantis and Trump to be on the ticket?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited October 11
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    Gladstone ran and won here at the age of 82 in 1892. Bin Mohamad won in 2018 as is currently PM of Malaysia at the age of 92 so it's not like it hasn't been done before elsewhere.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 248
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
    It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
    In the Ulternative Universe, everything is a gamble ;)

    Now, what’s Tulsi Gabbard up to? Running for something as an independent or Libertarian, or sweet-talking DeSantis and Trump to be on the ticket?
    Writing books and promoting them at CPAC, and gigs on Fox
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.

    If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke

    To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.

    Keep Trump out at all costs.

    If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
    Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
    The best way I can think of is

    1) Announce that he's running
    2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
    3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
    4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
    Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.

    That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
    Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
    Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.

    I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…

    Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
    It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
    In the Ulternative Universe, everything is a gamble ;)

    Now, what’s Tulsi Gabbard up to? Running for something as an independent or Libertarian, or sweet-talking DeSantis and Trump to be on the ticket?
    With her attack on the impeachment process, unrestrained love of Putin & Assad, the verbal diarrhoea of Right Wing Twitter talking points in her resignation statement and the American media's love of "bipartisanship" I think she is well positioned to be Trump's running mate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    That’s a fair point!
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She appears to have gone full moonbat, and she was at least 75% of the way there beforehand.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    DavidL said:

    I am trying to track down the PB threads of the polling when Gladstone was PM. It’s proving more difficult than I anticipated.

    Maybe I have misunderstood the way back when machine.

    "Letters to the Times" is what you're looking for.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,324

    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Russia adds Zuckerberg's Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to the list of "terrorist and extremist organizations," state media reports.


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579798547608002562

    A stopped clock...
    Meta shares are down 60% year to date, and even an investor who bought shares 5 years ago would be down 23%. The market does not believe they can continue to grow, it seems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    carnforth said:

    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Russia adds Zuckerberg's Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to the list of "terrorist and extremist organizations," state media reports.


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579798547608002562

    A stopped clock...
    Meta shares are down 60% year to date, and even an investor who bought shares 5 years ago would be down 23%. The market does not believe they can continue to grow, it seems.
    The curse of the ex-Lib Dem.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Leon said:

    Life does seem to have got very uncertain in so many spheres so quickly. It just feels like everything is broken. An overreaction, of course - but that level of unease that we have all had the best years of this century is hard to shake.

    Well if you could stop willing the Actual Apocalypse, that might improve things
    Grow up.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,926
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    5/1 the incumbent in their first term. Has it ever been that low before?

    We’ve never had an incumbent hit 80 in his first term before.
    Gladstone ran and won here at the age of 82 in 1892. Bin Mohamad won in 2018 as is currently PM of Malaysia at the age of 92 so it's not like it hasn't been done before elsewhere.
    Konrad Adenauer, in my view the greatest political leader since the War, came to power aged 72 or so and went on for fifteen years, although he was definitely gaga by the end.

    I think Biden is doing a damn good job for someone who is claimed to be senile. Step-perfect on Ukraine and has also steered some tricky domestic legislation through. This relies on him marshalling the interest groups and making the calls. He's not relying on talented underlings.

    Whether he should stand again is another question.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    FPT:
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting little insight into Nicola Sturgeon's trans quagmire (is it a quagmire?), and the wholly self-referential nature of some elements of that lobby.

    SNP equalities officer threatened to 'beat the f*** out of terfs and transphobes' in abusive tweets

    In now deleted tweets, Cameron Downing, 23, said he wanted to “beat the f*** out of some terfs and transphobes”.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-equalities-officer-threatened-beat-28189613

    1 - The chap is still in his job.
    2 - He has apologised to the 'LGBTQ+ community', and not to the people he was expressing a desire to "beat the f*ck out of".
    “I apologise for these tweets and for any offence caused to the LGBTQ+ community and have long since deleted them.” Tweets are from late 2020.

    2 is perhaps more concerning for anyone wanting to take this debate forward.

    I mean people say hyperbolic stuff on their social media all the time. But also - this article claims that terfs is a "derogatory term used against women who do not recognise the gender identity of trans women" when it is actually a term that they coined for themselves and stopped liking being associated with once they all started going weird on the main online.

    Would we have an issue with someone saying "I wanna beat up homophobes" especially if it was known that person was queer and had experienced abuse from homophobes? Would we have an issue with "I wanna beat up racists" if they had friends or knew a community who had just been attacked by racists? Imagine Tommy Robinson crying about people online saying "they're thugs for saying that sort of stuff about racists" and the Sun printing it.

    Hate crimes against LGBT+, but especially trans people, are going through the roof. As a queer person, that makes me both scared and furious, for myself and my friends. So yeah, going on social media and being a bit mouthy is not a big deal to me.

    https://news.sky.com/story/hate-crimes-recorded-in-england-and-wales-reach-record-high-12713558

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-office-hate-crime-hate-crimes-lgbt-suella-braverman-b2197101.html
    Wow, just wow. So you have no objection to a man going on social media and threatening to beat up women, using a derogatory term for women?

    I'm sorry but if instead of "terfs" it had been "fags" would you be as blasé?

    Anyone who threatens to beat up women, or gay people, or anyone else is utterly disgusting and has no place being an "equalities office" two years later, especially when he's not apologised to the community he threatened to beat up.

    The idea you think "terfs" are like "racists" shows something rather broken about your mindset. Yes gay people can be victims of crime and need protection. So are women too though, and crimes against women are just as serious a problem, which is what what you dismiss as "terfs" are dealing with.
    TERF is not synonymous with women - again, it would be like saying "I wanna bash some racists" is a threat to women because some racists are women. Men are much more likely to care about these issues, and to be openly transphobic. At demos, whilst fronted by some women, there are mostly men in the crowds, and a lot of the membership organisations are predominantly men.

    TERF is an ideology, a belief, a political view, that has evolved over time and has become radicalised. In it's beginnings I would say it was an understandable if ultimately inaccurate position; now it is an active campaign of bigotry and misinformation. The links to the far right and other conspiratorial right wing politics are well mapped. Again, I see no difference between this and "bash the fash".
    I think you misunderstand the history of the term. It was coined by "trans-inclusionary" radical feminists who wanted to define themselves against those who drew a distinction between transwomen and biological women.
    Sorry, it may have been coined by trans inclusive feminists, but it was not derogatory in nature and TERFs did originally accept and use that label themselves.
    Two comments I would make:

    1 - The expressed desire to inflict violence on political opponents is clearly beyond the pale, and I'm amazed that this individual is still in his job. Those tweets may well be criminal.

    2 - I think the issue with TERF is currently used - as a demonising term for anyone who needs to be abused, rather than where it came from. Language can become derogatory in its use.

    Consider, eg, "Karen", for one example.)

    TERF is used, for example, of JK Rowling, who is anything but a "Radical Feminist" (which aiui is a smallish subset of the broader feminist movement).

    It seems to be to be a tribal term used to avoid actually debating anything.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Then you have ardent supporters of the previous President who unironically fly the flag of America's sworn enemy in WWII and call themselves "Patriots".
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,926
    DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.

    I'm not sure they have learnt that lesson. They haven't rolled back the tax cuts. Meanwhile gilts are still tanking and we will now have to pay an extra £10 billion a year in debt servicing purely because of Truss and Kwarteng's pigheadedness, according to the IFS.

    It would be unconscionable to slash public services just to save the face of these two idiots.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,224

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.

    Shocked.

    Trump running mate?
    Ooooooooh.

    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
    Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.

    @TulsiGabbard
    I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…


    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
    She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
    To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.

    I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.

    Then you have ardent supporters of the previous President who unironically fly the flag of America's sworn enemy in WWII and call themselves "Patriots".
    Japan?

    But in any case I thought we were past "bad person supports X therefore X is also bad".
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    DavidL said:

    One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.

    One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.

    No. There is an alternative argument to yours.

    The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do. Surely it should be other way round, government and politicians make the decisions and decide the direction of travel - scientists and economists brought in to help realise and achieve politicians vision.

    Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?
This discussion has been closed.