Biden or a younger centrist like Buttigieg is the Democrats best chance of holding the White House.
If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke
To be honest I am starting to come around to Biden running even though he is clearly too old: simply because if he doesn't there's a good chance it will be Harris vs Trump and she would lose.
Keep Trump out at all costs.
If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
Yes, if Biden wants to stand down, he needs to find a way to do it without Harris becoming the default candidate.
The best way I can think of is
1) Announce that he's running 2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider] 3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them. 4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
Yep, he needs to engineer a very late primary challenge by a credible alternative. Said alternative needs to be initially apologetic for standing in the first place, but work hard and gain momentum in the first couple of primaries.
That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
Are we due a retirement on the Court soon?
Sonia Sotamayor is 68, she’s probably the next Democrat to retire.
I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…
Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
It's a bit of a gamble. A single Dem senator gets sick or dies and they risk losing the seat to the GOP. And I doubt there would be any GOP votes for Kamala, and not necessarily enough Dem votes.
In the Ulternative Universe, everything is a gamble
Now, what’s Tulsi Gabbard up to? Running for something as an independent or Libertarian, or sweet-talking DeSantis and Trump to be on the ticket?
With her attack on the impeachment process, unrestrained love of Putin & Assad, the verbal diarrhoea of Right Wing Twitter talking points in her resignation statement and the American media's love of "bipartisanship" I think she is well positioned to be Trump's running mate.
I look forward to a new efflorescence of 'I'm no fan of Tulsi but' chat on PB.
Make a change from the prior "I'm a massive fan of Tulsi" chat.
People were fans of her on here long after she was making publicly detestable statements.
Of course, there are defensive missile systems available in the West which could stop most of these attacks in their tracks (hypersonic perhaps excepted), without even getting into a debate about NATO vs Russian aircraft.
But they need to be supplied.
Germany has gotten increasingly steadfast as the war has continued:
A lot of people are making the mistake of assuming unanimity in a direction on this in Germany.
Large chunks of the political class want help for Ukraine. Another large chunk finds the idea of anything like a conflict with Russia disturbing.
Scholz seems to be oscillating between positions on this - oking weapons shipments, then delaying them.
I think to be fair anyone sane finds the prospect of conflict with Russia disturbing so I am not inclined to criticise them for this. What matters is not what they say but what they do. And after perhaps an understandably slow start they do seem to have nailed their colours to the mast in (for me) the right way.
The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do.
I find that sentence easier to parse if you replace the word "scientists" with "qualified people who know what they're talking about"; "government" with "people like Liz Truss, Kwazi Kwarteng and Jacob Rees-Mogg"; and "MPs" with "people like Michael Fabricant, Lucy Allan and Lee Anderson".
Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?
Not the one with Lee Anderson on it?
I toss to you a valuable point of principle, and all you can do is play political football with it 😤
I would find your answer more nuanced if you substituted the Truss government and current MPs for the Labour governments of 60s 70s and parliament of 60’s 70s.
Thread by a senior research associate at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation on @Leon ‘s armistice call. (She’s a Russia specialist.)
Barring fundamental changes in #Russian war aims, this won’t get us off the escalation ladder for long….
Outstanding thread.
Ru will use a ceasefire to regroup and then start to push again. Ukr would have lost momentum. They dump Putin, then maybe we can talk.
The point is that until Russia wants a genuine end (as opposed to convenient pause) to its attempted conquest of Ukraine, and demonstrates some evidence of that, then there’s little to be gained in talking.
Certainly we can, and should continue to have these debates. But if you’re advocating stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine in order to force their agreeing to an armistice, then it’s hardly a slur to suggest you might be wavering in your support for them.
It's not dead. What3Words is going to be brilliant for locating corpses in an otherwise irradiated wasteland full of ashes and with no distinguishing features
"Your mother is mainly lying dead over at rats.for.dinner, the rest of her is at armchair.warrior.twats"
It's not dead. What3Words is going to be brilliant for locating corpses in an otherwise irradiated wasteland full of ashes and with no distinguishing features
"Your mother is mainly lying dead over at rats.for.dinner, the rest of her is at armchair.warrior.twats"
The mystery being why the remains of that person’s mother landed at your feet?
Life does seem to have got very uncertain in so many spheres so quickly. It just feels like everything is broken. An overreaction, of course - but that level of unease that we have all had the best years of this century is hard to shake.
Well if you could stop willing the Actual Apocalypse, that might improve things
Grow up.
You effeminately bemoan the end of the world, then you demand we attack Putin directly. Failing to see there might be some connection between these two things
You've gone fucking nuts, like too many on here
Where have I said "we attack Putin directly"?
Go and post on the ILoveMakingShitUp site. You'd go down a storm there....
You're now so insane you accused me of being a "fucking appeaser" and a "Putinist shill" for saying.... "it might have been a truck"
It might have been a gas leak? Let’s wait for what the insurance pay out tells us?
This is probably the most important news from the war today.
NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports Belarus is handing over tanks, air defense systems and ammo to Russia. Today, several new echelons with equipment of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the direction of the Russian Federation were recorded at once, - Belarusian opposition media
First, Belarus will not join the war directly, otherwise it would keep its stock of spare equipment.
Second, Russia is likely reaching the limits of the usable equipment that it can bring back into service from its stores, and so it's ability to sustain the intensity of combat we have seen since February is nearing exhaustion.
Consequently, I believe we are nearer to the end of the war than the beginning.
In its 5th year, the #stateofai report condenses what you *need* to know in AI research, industry, safety, and politics. This open-access report is our contribution to the AI ecosystem.
This is probably the most important news from the war today.
NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports Belarus is handing over tanks, air defense systems and ammo to Russia. Today, several new echelons with equipment of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the direction of the Russian Federation were recorded at once, - Belarusian opposition media
First, Belarus will not join the war directly, otherwise it would keep its stock of spare equipment.
Second, Russia is likely reaching the limits of the usable equipment that it can bring back into service from its stores, and so it's ability to sustain the intensity of combat we have seen since February is nearing exhaustion.
Consequently, I believe we are nearer to the end of the war than the beginning.
The evidence is confusing
On the one hand Belarus is sending kit TO Russia. And yet on the other hand
"Jason Jay Smart, reporter for the Kyiv Post, said a Belarusian source told him hours after Mr Lukashenko’s statement that “Russian soldiers are entering Belarus by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars – just a huge quantity.”"
"Richard Shirreff, Nato’s former deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said: “The chilling factor here is the nuclear one and some form of nuclear escalation,” he said in an appearance at the Cheltenham Literature Festival.
“What we have not seen is Nato recognising that it has got to be prepared for the worst case and the worst case is war with Russia,” he said.""
FPT: EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001. UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015. Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.
You can choose your dates to create whatever narrative you like. If I did 2008 to 2022 it would look rather different, as I would be cherry picking to get the maximum negative on EUR-USD.
That's why you don't cherry pick years and you certainly don't take 2008, when the world was at maximum pre-GFC distortion, as your point of comparison. I chose 2001 simply because it was 20 years prior to the last data point. You could choose any year around then and get a similar result. The point is, the EU economy has broadly kept pace with the US over the last couple of decades - as did the UK, until Brexit.
Except its not true. 2021 dodgy is data due to Covid, and different ways of reporting Covid data.
If you look at the approximately quarter of a century pre-Covid since the EEC became the EU (1993 - 2019) then the data is the polar opposite of what you claim:
France 1.323 (19%) Germany 2.071 tn (30%) Italy 1.065 tn (16% ) UK 1.061 tn (15%) Big 4 Combined 5.52 tn (80%)
2019 (Final pre-Covid year): USA $20.94 tn
France 2.716 tn (13% down 6%) Germany 3.861 tn (18% down 12%) Italy 2.005 tn (10% down 6%) UK 2.831 tn (14% down 1%) Big 4 Combined 11.413 tn (55% down 25%)
Covid was over in 2021, measurement issues blighted 2020 and hence 2021 vs 2020 growth but not 2021. You don't think there's anything cherry picking about picking out just 4 EU members and comparing them to the whole of the US? OK. US population growth in the 90s was high owing to immigration. And Germany had a lost decade absorbing E Germany and working off the loss in competitiveness that caused. I think it makes more sense to look at the last twenty years, the 90s is ancient history economy-wise.
I have to confess those are not great figures for what3words
Their tiny turnover is down? And they spent £43m??!
This may be one that I got spectacularly wrong. It's still a fabulous dreamy idea tho, and someone will make a version of it work
It is a good idea but how do they monetise it ?
That is what interests me
Judging by the accounts, it can't be monetised very easily at all. Any investor is essentially hanging on for a buyout by one of the big tech companies.
I have to confess those are not great figures for what3words
Their tiny turnover is down? And they spent £43m??!
This may be one that I got spectacularly wrong. It's still a fabulous dreamy idea tho, and someone will make a version of it work
It is a good idea but how do they monetise it ?
That is what interests me
It's kinda tragic if it fails. There was a BBC article the other day about the problems caused by a lack of reliable addresses in poor countries
"How do you make deliveries without having a street name?
That's the problem the Gambian government is trying to resolve. Some cities and towns still have unnamed streets making the job of couriers a challenge. 🚚📦"
I have to confess those are not great figures for what3words
Their tiny turnover is down? And they spent £43m??!
This may be one that I got spectacularly wrong. It's still a fabulous dreamy idea tho, and someone will make a version of it work
It is a good idea but how do they monetise it ?
That is what interests me
It's kinda tragic if it fails. There was a BBC article the other day about the problems caused by a lack of reliable addresses in poor countries
"How do you make deliveries without having a street name?
That's the problem the Gambian government is trying to resolve. Some cities and towns still have unnamed streets making the job of couriers a challenge. 🚚📦"
One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.
One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.
No. There is an alternative argument to yours.
The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do. Surely it should be other way round, government and politicians make the decisions and decide the direction of travel - scientists and economists brought in to help realise and achieve politicians vision.
Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?
The parameters of the OBR are to keep borrowing below a certain percentage of GDP. The Government doesn't believe that that metric should be the sole focus, and history has proven them correct. When we've raised taxes we have frequently failed to pull in the anticipated revenue. When we've exceeded growth forecasts, that's when we pull in more tax than expected. Growth is the x factor. Who is keeping tabs on growth? Who is measuring inflation? The OBR are useless in this regard.
The parameters of the OBR are to give forecasts and analyses. It has no power to do anything. It is not a decision making body. The government can do what it want, irrespective of what the OBR says.
It’s got to be noted the cosy and I presume well paying OBR gig only exists on the whim of the government, like the praetorian guard who did nothing whilst Nero fiddled and Rome burned. In fact Rome burning itself an insurance fiddle. So we question the “independence” of the OBR.
Alternatively Osborne created and used the OBR to give his voice and budgetary epistles more resonance and authority, trumping complaints from both opposition and the markets. Because Osborne was all about aligning with sound finance and balancing the books, and the scientists and economists in the OBR would always produce “judgements” that supported sound finance and balancing the books - but, as I said alternatively, should governments always balance the books? Everyone who voted for Corbyn and his 2019 manifesto need to appreciate in this KwasiCrisis, the OBR would have been no help at all to the incoming Labour government of 2020, so why should those Labours voters of 2019 be allowed to call for the gospel of the OBR today?
Mixed chess feelings today on chess.com=Finally somebody did the white opening moves to spring my trap in taking their queen -its almost rude the trap in its blaze approach seemingly - However they took a whole minute (10 minute game) to recover after i nicked their queen before then beating me!
If anyone interested in this beautiful trap Eric Rosen first laid it out on youtube
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
You won't like me saying this, but the party's problem is Brexit. At least, the way the party spent decades seeing Europhobia as being the only 'true' Conservatism.
Anyone who was Eurosceptic got called Europhile because only Europhobes were truly anti-Europe. Vast amounts of talent were chucked out of the party, or discouraged from joining, because they were not seen as being strongly enough anti-Europe. This left a very weak talent pool, and we are reaping the consequences.
Europhobia is a madness that has destroyed the Conservative Party. For many, such as Bone or JRM, it is all that matters.
There's some truth in that and it works both ways. There was an institutional europhilia that for years defied what the median British person wanted on the EU, and they were roundly ignored. And for every Nigel Farage there was a Guy Verhofstadht. For every Bill Cash a Jean-Claude Junker.
Now, you certainly argue that "Brexit" as delivered is a problem and has corrupted the Conservative Party. But you also have to acknowledge that EU fealty and fatalism about Ever Closer Union also corrupted the other parties before, and arguably since.
What most people mean when they say the party's problem is Brexit is that they want it revoked and to go to the status quo antebellum, whereupon all our problems will be magically solved. That fuels some of the extreme dogma and paranoia on the other side. Both really hate each other and are deeply suspicious of one another.
What we desperately need is a new moderate consensus on our post-EU future, or the war will never end.
There’s a fair bit of truth in that OP. But it needn’t have been like that.
Brexit was allowed to become, by and within the conservatives, a test of purity, where any attempt at reconciliation with the real, pragmatic, world is denounced as heresy, and so politics detaches from reality in a way often seen in revolutions. What we have missed is a Cromwell or Napoleon figure who would turn on and marginalise the extremists and bring (or try, at least, in Cromwell’s case) the ‘project’ back toward the centre. I had hoped Mrs May would do the necessary, but she proved too weak, too stubborn, and too desperate to prove her credentials to the leavers.
“Norway for now” (which might have led either to “Norway forever” or moves toward further detachment, when we were ready and had thought things through) was always the most sensible position - but the last time leavers were willing to accept and talk about this was when they still needed our votes in the referendum.
One of the problems with the Norway for Now option was that it had been unnecessarily trashed well before the referendum. Whilst some elements of Leave were very keen on it, others were only pushing it as it seemed a less violent jump into the dark and more easily sold to the public so they used it without ever actually believing in it. At the same time Remain hated it because they thought it was an effective argument in favour of Brexit and so went after it hammer and tongs for fear it made Leave more likely to win.
So by the time Leave did actually win, both sides had thoroughly undermined the most reasonable and obvious post-Brexit destination. Brexit wasn't an act of self-harm any more than leaving a sinking ship would be. Choosing to abandon the lifeboats because they still had the name of the ship on the side of them was.
We didn't leave the ship because it was sinking, we left because some of us thought it was heading to the wrong port, and they decided it would be preferable to swim.
Nope, for many of us it was definitely sinking. You might not see it that way but there were plenty who did and still do.
So it was sinking six years ago and it's still sinking? It's hardly going down like the Titanic.
Its been sinking for decades.
There's more than one way of going down.
I repeat the point I've oft-made before, in the 80s Thatcher proudly boasted that the Single Market would be bigger than America.
Its now vastly smaller than America, and was pre-Brexit.
What is that, if not sinking?
EU population: 450 million USA population: 325 million
EU GDP: $17.9 trillion USA GDP: $20.9 trillion
EU GDP per capita: $39.8k USA GDP per capita: $63.5k
The EU Single Market, as used by the EU, is a failure. Its taken a Europe that was economically bigger than America, and made it one much smaller than America.
Well, it's a good thing she didn't mention nominal GDP then.
She did. "A single market ... bigger than the United States", markets tend to be measured in nominal GDP and in 1988 it was true. Measuring in GDP in 1988 the 12 nations of the EEC was considerably wealthier than the USA.
By 2016 the 28 nations the EU were not. America has grown in leaps and bounds, while the "Single Market" has ossified and failed to do so.
America has its problems, largely race based, but when it comes to the economy Europe absolutely has been sinking.
Not true. The EU27 economy in 2021 was 87% of the size of the US economy ($20.3trn vs $23.3trn). Twenty years previously in 2001 it was 85% of the size ($9.0trn vs $10.6trn).
Odd that you would cherrypick 2001 as the date for the comparison, especially given the expansion to Eastern Europe occurred just after that and Eastern Europe absolutely has grown of course.
1988 when the quotation was made would be a better comparison.
Try running your numbers again since 1988, ideally with the EEC12 rather than the EU27, or with the EU27 if you prefer since its still the same result even bearing in mind of course growth in Eastern Europe flatters the EU27.
I didn't cherry pick anything. I chose 2001 simply because it was twenty years prior to 2021, the last available date with numbers. I chose the EU27 because that is the EU and you were comparing the EU to the US, not a subset of one to the other. Eastern Europe has indeed grown strongly, precisely because they joined the EU and gained access to the single market. Why do you think Ukraine is so eager to join? The fact is, over a long period of time growth in the EU has kept up with growth in the US. While UK GDP has fallen from 16% of US GDP to 13% over the same period. And *all* of that relative decline has happened since 2015. I wonder what might have happened in 2016 to have made that happen? If you want to find a sinking ship, look closer to home. The sick man of Europe once again.
I was comparing western, developed Europe, which is why I chose 1988 and the EEC, which was a valid comparison.
If you want to make individual nation comparisons, then 2021 is extremely dodgy due to Covid and different nations measure GDP under Covid differently, the last non-Covid data available is for 2019.
1993 was when the EEC became the EU and was roughly a quarter of a century before 2019 so seems an appropriate starting point to look at, so lets look since then.
1993 (Start of EU): USA 6.859 tn
France 1.323 (19%) Germany 2.071 tn (30%) Italy 1.065 tn (16% ) UK 1.061 tn (15%) Big 4 Combined 5.52 tn (80%)
2019 (Final pre-Covid year): USA $20.94 tn
France 2.716 tn (13% down 6%) Germany 3.861 tn (18% down 12%) Italy 2.005 tn (10% down 6%) UK 2.831 tn (14% down 1%) Big 4 Combined 11.413 tn (55% down 35%)
The UK has performed least-worst of the four nations in that time period, but all are down considerably.
Hardly a roaring success for the EU Single Market, is it?
After having slagged off @OnlyLivingBoy for cherry picking, I'm going to do the same for you.
In particular, you're choosing a date just before Germany (which is by far the largest of the big four) went into a vicious multi-year post reunification downer*, while the US (and the UK) were bouncing back from their nasty 1990-1991 recessions.
The US has outperformed the Big Four economies of the EU (as was). As has Australia and Canada. It's also benefited from commodities, demographics, immigration and the strength of the US Dollar.
The question is - to what extent is the weakness of the EU countries simply the same demographics driven weakness we've seen in Japan, and to what extent is it caused by the structural rigidities of the EU.
* Having Germany substantially underperform Italy is the big give away. No-one living in Italy thinks they've outperformed Germany over the last quarter century.
I have to confess those are not great figures for what3words
Their tiny turnover is down? And they spent £43m??!
This may be one that I got spectacularly wrong. It's still a fabulous dreamy idea tho, and someone will make a version of it work
It is a good idea but how do they monetise it ?
That is what interests me
It's kinda tragic if it fails. There was a BBC article the other day about the problems caused by a lack of reliable addresses in poor countries
"How do you make deliveries without having a street name?
That's the problem the Gambian government is trying to resolve. Some cities and towns still have unnamed streets making the job of couriers a challenge. 🚚📦"
There is a solution ready and waiting. For some reason it is not being used
Maybe Elon will buy it and integrate it into twitter. "Twitter maps"
Yes. They should sell the whole shebang to someone with endless £££ and global reach who will give it away for free as an added bonus. Google with Google Maps are the obvious partner
Damn shame if the idea can't be made to work. It would improve lives
I have to confess those are not great figures for what3words
Their tiny turnover is down? And they spent £43m??!
This may be one that I got spectacularly wrong. It's still a fabulous dreamy idea tho, and someone will make a version of it work
It is a good idea but how do they monetise it ?
That is what interests me
Back when I first heard of them years ago I assumed they were going for an acquire hire by Google or Apple or Microsoft.
Now I have no idea, they have an office in Ulaanbaatar, they have open job listings their for video editors. I think they are high on their own supply, confusing the ability to raise cash in an low interest rate envitonemnt awash with VC money.
I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.
Shocked.
Trump running mate?
Ooooooooh.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.
Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.
@TulsiGabbard I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…
This is probably the most important news from the war today.
NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports Belarus is handing over tanks, air defense systems and ammo to Russia. Today, several new echelons with equipment of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the direction of the Russian Federation were recorded at once, - Belarusian opposition media
First, Belarus will not join the war directly, otherwise it would keep its stock of spare equipment.
Second, Russia is likely reaching the limits of the usable equipment that it can bring back into service from its stores, and so it's ability to sustain the intensity of combat we have seen since February is nearing exhaustion.
Consequently, I believe we are nearer to the end of the war than the beginning.
Russia's front-line kit is getting older by decades; Ukraine's getting ever nearer to state of the art.
It is really hard to imagine what Putin and his general's are hoping to achieve, short of demilitarizing the whole country.
Maybe they were expecting supplies from China that haven't materialised?
I have to confess those are not great figures for what3words
Their tiny turnover is down? And they spent £43m??!
This may be one that I got spectacularly wrong. It's still a fabulous dreamy idea tho, and someone will make a version of it work
It is a good idea but how do they monetise it ?
That is what interests me
Judging by the accounts, it can't be monetised very easily at all. Any investor is essentially hanging on for a buyout by one of the big tech companies.
Which I would have thought less likely in the current environment.
One of the few positives to come out of the kamikwase mini budget is that even our political classes will have learned that making up fiscal policy on the hoof is no longer acceptable to the markets. No one will be stupid enough to have a major fiscal event without OBR backing again.
One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.
No. There is an alternative argument to yours.
The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do. Surely it should be other way round, government and politicians make the decisions and decide the direction of travel - scientists and economists brought in to help realise and achieve politicians vision.
Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?
So if a PM gets elected on a platform of free teleportation to be delivered to all by 2028 should we only employ scientists who promise to deliver on that, or those that say, sorry PM, you are talking nonsense.
If Teleportation Tomorrow Inc sells the idea to the government in the Lobby, and it’s a policy the government hopes will dramatically increase growth in UK, putting us top of growth in the G7, 9, 10 and 20 - or at very least ahead of the ridiculously cumbersome EU, then YES scientists should be employed by government to deliver Teleportation.
Unless you think there is something wrong with the democracy we have in UK, for I have just beautifully described how it works, have I not?
FPT: EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001. UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015. Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.
You can choose your dates to create whatever narrative you like. If I did 2008 to 2022 it would look rather different, as I would be cherry picking to get the maximum negative on EUR-USD.
That's why you don't cherry pick years and you certainly don't take 2008, when the world was at maximum pre-GFC distortion, as your point of comparison. I chose 2001 simply because it was 20 years prior to the last data point. You could choose any year around then and get a similar result. The point is, the EU economy has broadly kept pace with the US over the last couple of decades - as did the UK, until Brexit.
Except its not true. 2021 dodgy is data due to Covid, and different ways of reporting Covid data.
If you look at the approximately quarter of a century pre-Covid since the EEC became the EU (1993 - 2019) then the data is the polar opposite of what you claim:
France 1.323 (19%) Germany 2.071 tn (30%) Italy 1.065 tn (16% ) UK 1.061 tn (15%) Big 4 Combined 5.52 tn (80%)
2019 (Final pre-Covid year): USA $20.94 tn
France 2.716 tn (13% down 6%) Germany 3.861 tn (18% down 12%) Italy 2.005 tn (10% down 6%) UK 2.831 tn (14% down 1%) Big 4 Combined 11.413 tn (55% down 25%)
Covid was over in 2021, measurement issues blighted 2020 and hence 2021 vs 2020 growth but not 2021. You don't think there's anything cherry picking about picking out just 4 EU members and comparing them to the whole of the US? OK. US population growth in the 90s was high owing to immigration. And Germany had a lost decade absorbing E Germany and working off the loss in competitiveness that caused. I think it makes more sense to look at the last twenty years, the 90s is ancient history economy-wise.
I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.
Shocked.
Trump running mate?
Ooooooooh.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.
Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.
@TulsiGabbard I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…
She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.
I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.
Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Trump was still President?
Mixed chess feelings today on chess.com=Finally somebody did the white opening moves to spring my trap in taking their queen -its almost rude the trap in its blaze approach seemingly - However they took a whole minute (10 minute game) to recover after i nicked their queen before then beating me!
If anyone interested in this beautiful trap Eric Rosen first laid it out on youtube
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
Mixed chess feelings today on chess.com=Finally somebody did the white opening moves to spring my trap in taking their queen -its almost rude the trap in its blaze approach seemingly - However they took a whole minute (10 minute game) to recover after i nicked their queen before then beating me!
If anyone interested in this beautiful trap Eric Rosen first laid it out on youtube
I have to confess those are not great figures for what3words
Their tiny turnover is down? And they spent £43m??!
This may be one that I got spectacularly wrong. It's still a fabulous dreamy idea tho, and someone will make a version of it work
It is a good idea but how do they monetise it ?
That is what interests me
Judging by the accounts, it can't be monetised very easily at all. Any investor is essentially hanging on for a buyout by one of the big tech companies.
No-one monetised latitude and longitude. This is a clear example of something that's best off being open source, or an international standard, rather than privatised.
I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.
Biden's fine. He trips over his words and says inappropriate shit but he's always done that.
He recently tried to talk to a dead person
Oh come on - if you're going to use that as a disqualifying factor, we'd hardly have any politicians at all.
Mixed chess feelings today on chess.com=Finally somebody did the white opening moves to spring my trap in taking their queen -its almost rude the trap in its blaze approach seemingly - However they took a whole minute (10 minute game) to recover after i nicked their queen before then beating me!
If anyone interested in this beautiful trap Eric Rosen first laid it out on youtube
A good trap to play if you like playing Queens Pawn openings a pawn down every time...
yes had a few of those ! But as Eric said ,if white does the most popular moves they will fall into it. You get satisifaction either way - either it works and white is left stunned without a queen or you get to play a good challenge by being one pawn down !
I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.
Biden's fine. He trips over his words and says inappropriate shit but he's always done that.
He recently tried to talk to a dead person
Oh come on - if you're going to use that as a disqualifying factor, we'd hardly have any politicians at all.
Fascinating to see @Casino_Royale confess on here that he may have been supporting a fraud for some years.
Of course, the Tories were not always the ideologically bankrupt, paranoid death cult they’ve become.
‘Twas Europhobia wot wrought it.
The nutty wing has always been there I suppose, certainly since the era of John Major’s “bastards”, and the delusional choice of IDS over Clarke.
But it could be dismissed on one level as a distinctly minority sect, and besides, there *were* (or are) sensible and rational eurosceptic arguments, most notably over the Euro.
But Brexit itself seems either to have radicalised Eurosceptics, or unleashed a latent and terrifying Europhobia, and frankly there is a direct line from 2016 to today’s financial and ideological precipice.
Essentially, the Tory Party ejected the realists and are high on their own supply, to the point of death by overdose.
Patriots of all ideological flavours must wish that the Tories somehow throw off their now-dominant lunatic wing, but it is not a certain thing. See Trump and the Republicans for details.
I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.
Shocked.
Trump running mate?
Ooooooooh.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.
Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.
@TulsiGabbard I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…
She's taking Putin's failure in Ukraine hard I see.
To think, America used to be in the grip of such Commie-hatred that you could have Senator McCarthy grilling everybody under oath on whether they are or ever been a member of the Communist Party.
I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.
Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Trump was still President?
As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH
"F*ck. Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes. Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."
It's much harder than you think to permanently disrupt power generation.
Coal fired power stations are not very complex things, and they date back more than a century. They can almost certainly be patched up much more cheaply than Russia can lob cruise missiles and aircraft strikes.
Mixed chess feelings today on chess.com=Finally somebody did the white opening moves to spring my trap in taking their queen -its almost rude the trap in its blaze approach seemingly - However they took a whole minute (10 minute game) to recover after i nicked their queen before then beating me!
If anyone interested in this beautiful trap Eric Rosen first laid it out on youtube
A good trap to play if you like playing Queens Pawn openings a pawn down every time...
yes had a few of those ! But as Eric said ,if white does the most popular moves they will fall into it. You get satisifaction either way - either it works and white is left stunned without a queen or you get to play a good challenge by being one pawn down !
To be fair, I prefer longer format over the board games, where that kind of thing won't really wash.
I would probably have wasted a good few seconds thinking about that in a bullet game, which might well be worth the pawn in any case.
FPT: EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001. UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015. Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.
You can choose your dates to create whatever narrative you like. If I did 2008 to 2022 it would look rather different, as I would be cherry picking to get the maximum negative on EUR-USD.
That's why you don't cherry pick years and you certainly don't take 2008, when the world was at maximum pre-GFC distortion, as your point of comparison. I chose 2001 simply because it was 20 years prior to the last data point. You could choose any year around then and get a similar result. The point is, the EU economy has broadly kept pace with the US over the last couple of decades - as did the UK, until Brexit.
Except its not true. 2021 dodgy is data due to Covid, and different ways of reporting Covid data.
If you look at the approximately quarter of a century pre-Covid since the EEC became the EU (1993 - 2019) then the data is the polar opposite of what you claim:
France 1.323 (19%) Germany 2.071 tn (30%) Italy 1.065 tn (16% ) UK 1.061 tn (15%) Big 4 Combined 5.52 tn (80%)
2019 (Final pre-Covid year): USA $20.94 tn
France 2.716 tn (13% down 6%) Germany 3.861 tn (18% down 12%) Italy 2.005 tn (10% down 6%) UK 2.831 tn (14% down 1%) Big 4 Combined 11.413 tn (55% down 25%)
Covid was over in 2021, measurement issues blighted 2020 and hence 2021 vs 2020 growth but not 2021. You don't think there's anything cherry picking about picking out just 4 EU members and comparing them to the whole of the US? OK. US population growth in the 90s was high owing to immigration. And Germany had a lost decade absorbing E Germany and working off the loss in competitiveness that caused. I think it makes more sense to look at the last twenty years, the 90s is ancient history economy-wise.
Really?
[Gerry Adams voice] Covid hasn't gone away, you know!
Note “saying govt’s tax cuts AND ENERGY SUPPORT PACKAGE”
About 99% of PB are overtly political herd who have simply been blaming the tax cuts for the problems these past three weeks.
in your own sweet dreamland you were sure you knew what you were talking about. But it’s time to wake up to reality Now PB.
Let’s do the maths again and see what really spooks the market.
Cost of the mini budget -
£45B of tax cuts minus £2B on a u-turn minus £30B of stealth tax take from fiscal drag = £13B NET (noted £13B net hardly a booster growth budget it was sold as - but not is anything for IMF to get shirty about or for markets to get unduly troubled by, is it).
But.
Cost of the energy support package -
£250B Net. (Possibly a little more or a little less based on borrowing cost/energy price when purchased by energy companies variables)
As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH
"F*ck. Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes. Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."
It's much harder than you think to permanently disrupt power generation.
Coal fired power stations are not very complex things, and they date back more than a century. They can almost certainly be patched up much more cheaply than Russia can lob cruise missiles and aircraft strikes.
I'm not saying he WILL do it but it is what he is trying to do, and this happened in Aleppo. But he needs a fuck of a lot of missiles and drones, because he will have to relentlessly pound the power stations/water all the way through the winter, so they cannot be repaired
Water could be as crucial as electricity. If you successfully cut a water supply you would get surrender in days, but I have no idea how difficult that is. You would probably need people on the ground to sabotage pipes?
This is an interesting thread :
UKRAINE WAR UPDATE
I have identified four intertwining paths to victory for Russia: (1) Mobilization ✅ (2) Massed Kalibr strikes on power infrastructure ✅ (3) Weaponized Kesslerization 🚀🪨🛰️💥 (4) Large-scale Chinese aid (🐉,🐻) Let's go through them.
Anatoly Karlin 🚀🪨🛰️💥
But if Russia was too incompetent or dysfunctional to surge Kalibr production in preceding months, and Ukrainians are trouncing Russians in counter-battery due to Western munitions & space-based ISR support with attendants effect on loss ratios, then it's on a path to defeat."
Fascinating to see @Casino_Royale confess on here that he may have been supporting a fraud for some years.
Of course, the Tories were not always the ideologically bankrupt, paranoid death cult they’ve become.
‘Twas Europhobia wot wrought it.
The nutty wing has always been there I suppose, certainly since the era of John Major’s “bastards”, and the delusional choice of IDS over Clarke.
But it could be dismissed on one level as a distinctly minority sect, and besides, there *were* (or are) sensible and rational eurosceptic arguments, most notably over the Euro.
But Brexit itself seems either to have radicalised Eurosceptics, or unleashed a latent and terrifying Europhobia, and frankly there is a direct line from 2016 to today’s financial and ideological precipice.
Essentially, the Tory Party ejected the realists and are high on their own supply, to the point of death by overdose.
Patriots of all ideological flavours must wish that the Tory somehow expel the now-dominant lunatic wing, but it is not a certain thing. See Trump and the Republicans for details.
An argument that strains credulity for a whole host of reasons. Not least because the architect of the latest Conservative debacle was herself a very active and staunch Remainer throughout the referendum campaign. Trying to tie the economic policies revealed over the last few weeks to Brexit is tenuous to say the least. Moreover, we are in the position we are in as far as a resolution to Brexit goes because of yet another Remainer - Theresa May, who was utterly inept in everything she did.
The problems we face today are not because of Brexit, they are because the Tory party has long since proved itself unfit to govern - something I feel was the case even before Brexit.
I am not watching the Supreme Court hearings, but my personal view is that even an advisory referendum on constitutional matters falls outside the Scottish government’s remit.
As would, for example, advertising in support of independence.
Note “saying govt’s tax cuts AND ENERGY SUPPORT PACKAGE”
About 99% of PB are overtly political herd who have simply been blaming the tax cuts for the problems these past three weeks.
in your own sweet dreamland you were sure you knew what you were talking about. But it’s time to wake up to reality Now PB.
Let’s do the maths again and see what really spooks the market.
Cost of the mini budget -
£45B of tax cuts minus £2B on a u-turn minus £30B of stealth tax take from fiscal drag = £13B NET (noted £13B net hardly a booster growth budget it was sold as - but not is anything for IMF to get shirty about or for markets to get unduly troubled by, is it).
But.
Cost of the energy support package -
£250B Net. (Possibly a little more or a little less based on borrowing cost/energy price when purchased by energy companies variables)
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Russia got it's arse kicked when Ukraine was taken by surprise and barely armed. Ukraine will be ready this time. It sounds like a completely suicidal "plan" to me.
Fascinating to see @Casino_Royale confess on here that he may have been supporting a fraud for some years.
Of course, the Tories were not always the ideologically bankrupt, paranoid death cult they’ve become.
‘Twas Europhobia wot wrought it.
The nutty wing has always been there I suppose, certainly since the era of John Major’s “bastards”, and the delusional choice of IDS over Clarke.
But it could be dismissed on one level as a distinctly minority sect, and besides, there *were* (or are) sensible and rational eurosceptic arguments, most notably over the Euro.
But Brexit itself seems either to have radicalised Eurosceptics, or unleashed a latent and terrifying Europhobia, and frankly there is a direct line from 2016 to today’s financial and ideological precipice.
Essentially, the Tory Party ejected the realists and are high on their own supply, to the point of death by overdose.
Patriots of all ideological flavours must wish that the Tory somehow expel the now-dominant lunatic wing, but it is not a certain thing. See Trump and the Republicans for details.
An argument that strains credulity for a whole host of reasons. Not least because the architect of the latest Conservative debacle was herself a very active and staunch Remainer throughout the referendum campaign. Trying to tie the economic policies revealed over the last few weeks to Brexit is tenuous to say the least. Moreover, we are in the position we are in as far as a resolution to Brexit goes because of yet another Remainer - Theresa May, who was utterly inept in everything she did.
The problems we face today are not because of Brexit, they are because the Tory party has long since proved itself unfit to govern - something I feel was the case even before Brexit.
They are not because of “Brexit” unto itself.
They are because of the way the Tory Party have campaigned for, prosecuted, and become radicalised through, Brexit.
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Go and read up about Belarus and its military.
It has a conscript army. Many of whom would have voted for the real winner of the Presidential election, not Lukashenko.
It has an annual military budget of c$650m.
The US military aid to Ukraine so far is equivalent to 27 years of Belarus's military spend.
Belarus couldn't take Newcastle on a Friday night.
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Russia got it's arse kicked when Ukraine was taken by surprise and barely armed. Ukraine will be ready this time. It sounds like a completely suicidal "plan" to me.
Melchett: Now, Field Marshal Haig has formulated a brilliant tactical plan to ensure final victory in the field
Blackadder: Would this brilliant plan involve us climbing over the top of our trenches and walking, very slowly towards the enemy?
Darling: How did you know that Blackadder? It's classified information
Blackadder: It's the same plan we used last time, and the seventeen times before that
Melchett: E-e-exactly! And that is what is so brilliant about it. It will catch the watchful Hun totally off guard. Doing exactly what we've done eighteen times before will be the last thing they expect us to do this time.
Fascinating to see @Casino_Royale confess on here that he may have been supporting a fraud for some years.
Of course, the Tories were not always the ideologically bankrupt, paranoid death cult they’ve become.
‘Twas Europhobia wot wrought it.
The nutty wing has always been there I suppose, certainly since the era of John Major’s “bastards”, and the delusional choice of IDS over Clarke.
But it could be dismissed on one level as a distinctly minority sect, and besides, there *were* (or are) sensible and rational eurosceptic arguments, most notably over the Euro.
But Brexit itself seems either to have radicalised Eurosceptics, or unleashed a latent and terrifying Europhobia, and frankly there is a direct line from 2016 to today’s financial and ideological precipice.
Essentially, the Tory Party ejected the realists and are high on their own supply, to the point of death by overdose.
Patriots of all ideological flavours must wish that the Tory somehow expel the now-dominant lunatic wing, but it is not a certain thing. See Trump and the Republicans for details.
An argument that strains credulity for a whole host of reasons. Not least because the architect of the latest Conservative debacle was herself a very active and staunch Remainer throughout the referendum campaign. Trying to tie the economic policies revealed over the last few weeks to Brexit is tenuous to say the least. Moreover, we are in the position we are in as far as a resolution to Brexit goes because of yet another Remainer - Theresa May, who was utterly inept in everything she did.
The problems we face today are not because of Brexit, they are because the Tory party has long since proved itself unfit to govern - something I feel was the case even before Brexit.
They are not because of “Brexit” unto itself.
They are because of the way the Tory Party have campaigned for, prosecuted, and become radicalised through, Brexit.
A second-order effect, but a very clear one.
Nah. If it hadn't been Brexit it would have been something else. The fundamental problem is the underlying nature of the Tory party, not whatever cause they choose to attach themselves to.
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Except they are not weakened, are they? They are getting stronger week by week. Kit, better trained troops who know what salisbury plain is like etc.
I find it interesting that we have a non stop campaign of ridicule against out own PM above the line here, but we couch anything about Biden in ludicrously diplomatic language. The fact that he might not run has nothing to do with him being 80. Many people are on great form at 80 - HMQ had a good decade more of reigning in her when she was 80. It has to do with various signs that Biden is infirm, and therefore incapable.
Biden's fine. He trips over his words and says inappropriate shit but he's always done that.
He recently tried to talk to a dead person
Oh come on - if you're going to use that as a disqualifying factor, we'd hardly have any politicians at all.
Fascinating to see @Casino_Royale confess on here that he may have been supporting a fraud for some years.
Of course, the Tories were not always the ideologically bankrupt, paranoid death cult they’ve become.
‘Twas Europhobia wot wrought it.
The nutty wing has always been there I suppose, certainly since the era of John Major’s “bastards”, and the delusional choice of IDS over Clarke.
But it could be dismissed on one level as a distinctly minority sect, and besides, there *were* (or are) sensible and rational eurosceptic arguments, most notably over the Euro.
But Brexit itself seems either to have radicalised Eurosceptics, or unleashed a latent and terrifying Europhobia, and frankly there is a direct line from 2016 to today’s financial and ideological precipice.
Essentially, the Tory Party ejected the realists and are high on their own supply, to the point of death by overdose.
Patriots of all ideological flavours must wish that the Tory somehow expel the now-dominant lunatic wing, but it is not a certain thing. See Trump and the Republicans for details.
An argument that strains credulity for a whole host of reasons. Not least because the architect of the latest Conservative debacle was herself a very active and staunch Remainer throughout the referendum campaign. Trying to tie the economic policies revealed over the last few weeks to Brexit is tenuous to say the least. Moreover, we are in the position we are in as far as a resolution to Brexit goes because of yet another Remainer - Theresa May, who was utterly inept in everything she did.
The problems we face today are not because of Brexit, they are because the Tory party has long since proved itself unfit to govern - something I feel was the case even before Brexit.
They are not because of “Brexit” unto itself.
They are because of the way the Tory Party have campaigned for, prosecuted, and become radicalised through, Brexit.
A second-order effect, but a very clear one.
Nah. If it hadn't been Brexit it would have been something else. The fundamental problem is the underlying nature of the Tory party, not whatever cause they choose to attach themselves to.
This seems like a form of blindness to me. What is this fundamental dysfunction that can be separable from Euroscepticism?
I am not watching the Supreme Court hearings, but my personal view is that even an advisory referendum on constitutional matters falls outside the Scottish government’s remit.
As would, for example, advertising in support of independence.
I think on balance I agree, although you end up at a thorny situation. In 19th century USA, I believe that the southern states had the right to secede from the union. Does Scotland have the right to do the same from the UK? I assume there was no article 50 in the act of Union?
Fascinating to see @Casino_Royale confess on here that he may have been supporting a fraud for some years.
Of course, the Tories were not always the ideologically bankrupt, paranoid death cult they’ve become.
‘Twas Europhobia wot wrought it.
The nutty wing has always been there I suppose, certainly since the era of John Major’s “bastards”, and the delusional choice of IDS over Clarke.
But it could be dismissed on one level as a distinctly minority sect, and besides, there *were* (or are) sensible and rational eurosceptic arguments, most notably over the Euro.
But Brexit itself seems either to have radicalised Eurosceptics, or unleashed a latent and terrifying Europhobia, and frankly there is a direct line from 2016 to today’s financial and ideological precipice.
Essentially, the Tory Party ejected the realists and are high on their own supply, to the point of death by overdose.
Patriots of all ideological flavours must wish that the Tory somehow expel the now-dominant lunatic wing, but it is not a certain thing. See Trump and the Republicans for details.
An argument that strains credulity for a whole host of reasons. Not least because the architect of the latest Conservative debacle was herself a very active and staunch Remainer throughout the referendum campaign. Trying to tie the economic policies revealed over the last few weeks to Brexit is tenuous to say the least. Moreover, we are in the position we are in as far as a resolution to Brexit goes because of yet another Remainer - Theresa May, who was utterly inept in everything she did.
The problems we face today are not because of Brexit, they are because the Tory party has long since proved itself unfit to govern - something I feel was the case even before Brexit.
They are not because of “Brexit” unto itself.
They are because of the way the Tory Party have campaigned for, prosecuted, and become radicalised through, Brexit.
A second-order effect, but a very clear one.
Nah. If it hadn't been Brexit it would have been something else. The fundamental problem is the underlying nature of the Tory party, not whatever cause they choose to attach themselves to.
This seems like a form of blindness to me. What is this fundamental dysfunction that can be separable from Euroscepticism?
Immigration. It incorporates elements of Euroscepticism in wanting to control FoM, but plans like Rwanda show that EU or no EU, the need to deport foreigners irrespective of economic necessity to please Dave from Boston runs through the heart of the Conservative party.
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Go and read up about Belarus and its military.
It has a conscript army. Many of whom would have voted for the real winner of the Presidential election, not Lukashenko.
It has an annual military budget of c$650m.
The US military aid to Ukraine so far is equivalent to 27 years of Belarus's military spend.
Belarus couldn't take Newcastle on a Friday night.
Lukashenko is doing everything he can to look as though he is giving support without doing anything concrete. As you rightfully say, the Belorussian army would get its arse kicked but would be more likely to mutiny first.
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Except they are not weakened, are they? They are getting stronger week by week. Kit, better trained troops who know what salisbury plain is like etc.
I was talking about a Ukraine weakened on the Home Front, not the soldiers (who are indeed increasingly better train and motivated than the Russians)
Putin's PLAN is to weaken Ukraine at home by relentlessly pulverising infrastructure. But can he, and for how long?
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Except they are not weakened, are they? They are getting stronger week by week. Kit, better trained troops who know what salisbury plain is like etc.
I am optimistic that if Lukasheko enters the war then he will be brought down quite rapidly. The chaos could easily spread across into Russia as the military disaster unfolds and the public finally wake up.
FPT: EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001. UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015. Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.
You can choose your dates to create whatever narrative you like. If I did 2008 to 2022 it would look rather different, as I would be cherry picking to get the maximum negative on EUR-USD.
That's why you don't cherry pick years and you certainly don't take 2008, when the world was at maximum pre-GFC distortion, as your point of comparison. I chose 2001 simply because it was 20 years prior to the last data point. You could choose any year around then and get a similar result. The point is, the EU economy has broadly kept pace with the US over the last couple of decades - as did the UK, until Brexit.
Except its not true. 2021 dodgy is data due to Covid, and different ways of reporting Covid data.
If you look at the approximately quarter of a century pre-Covid since the EEC became the EU (1993 - 2019) then the data is the polar opposite of what you claim:
France 1.323 (19%) Germany 2.071 tn (30%) Italy 1.065 tn (16% ) UK 1.061 tn (15%) Big 4 Combined 5.52 tn (80%)
2019 (Final pre-Covid year): USA $20.94 tn
France 2.716 tn (13% down 6%) Germany 3.861 tn (18% down 12%) Italy 2.005 tn (10% down 6%) UK 2.831 tn (14% down 1%) Big 4 Combined 11.413 tn (55% down 25%)
Covid was over in 2021, measurement issues blighted 2020 and hence 2021 vs 2020 growth but not 2021. You don't think there's anything cherry picking about picking out just 4 EU members and comparing them to the whole of the US? OK. US population growth in the 90s was high owing to immigration. And Germany had a lost decade absorbing E Germany and working off the loss in competitiveness that caused. I think it makes more sense to look at the last twenty years, the 90s is ancient history economy-wise.
Really?
[Gerry Adams voice] Covid hasn't gone away, you know!
I am booked for an operation in Ipswich Hospital in two weeks time. I have been instructed by the hospital to self isolate for those two weeks and, before I am actually admitted, to produce three negative Covid tests. Doesn't look as though they think Covid is gone away!
Note “saying govt’s tax cuts AND ENERGY SUPPORT PACKAGE”
About 99% of PB are overtly political herd who have simply been blaming the tax cuts for the problems these past three weeks.
in your own sweet dreamland you were sure you knew what you were talking about. But it’s time to wake up to reality Now PB.
Let’s do the maths again and see what really spooks the market.
Cost of the mini budget -
£45B of tax cuts minus £2B on a u-turn minus £30B of stealth tax take from fiscal drag = £13B NET (noted £13B net hardly a booster growth budget it was sold as - but not is anything for IMF to get shirty about or for markets to get unduly troubled by, is it).
But.
Cost of the energy support package -
£250B Net. (Possibly a little more or a little less based on borrowing cost/energy price when purchased by energy companies variables)
Oh come on, surely the pennys dropping now?
Thanks, Tory Girl
And there you go again. Horse will be along in a minute to whinny and snicker as well. Anabob too. 🙄
I’m attacking the Starmer/Truss energy price guarantee from the left. It’s regressive. Unlike the variable price cap it doesn’t give those in need enough support whilst splaying cash wastefully at the rich who don’t need it. The Starmer/Truss Energy Price guarantee is quarter of a trillion of borrowing - that means maxing out the UK credit limit and locking in higher bills and higher taxes on working people in future to pay it off (unless you claim it will all be paid off by growth) whilst variable price cap virtually pays for itself.
Thanks Sunil, for giving me the chance to explain how you are clearly backing the wrong horse.
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Russia got it's arse kicked when Ukraine was taken by surprise and barely armed. Ukraine will be ready this time. It sounds like a completely suicidal "plan" to me.
The problem of Russia's military is akin to many organisations i.e. an inability to think outside the box. Thus, they think repeating the Syrian strategy of bombing Ukraine's infrastructure and hoping it will work without realising that all it does is increases the chances of more funding for Ukraine.
Now, they may be banking on the GOP taking Congress and restricting aid but even that is a daft plan - there are enough GOP members to side with the Ds to continue funding.
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Go and read up about Belarus and its military.
It has a conscript army. Many of whom would have voted for the real winner of the Presidential election, not Lukashenko.
It has an annual military budget of c$650m.
The US military aid to Ukraine so far is equivalent to 27 years of Belarus's military spend.
Belarus couldn't take Newcastle on a Friday night.
TBF, that's a task even the US Marine Corps would take on only with trepidation and if they had no other choice.
I am shocked, shocked to discover perennial PB favourite Tulsi Gabbard has quite the Democratic Party.
Shocked.
Trump running mate?
Ooooooooh.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.
Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
Perhaps she wants the Republican nomination herself.
@TulsiGabbard I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…
Since PBers are eagerly flogging such dead horses as Tulsi Gabbard and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, perhaps you might like to hear about a LIVE horsey?
Seattle Times ($) copied from Washington Post ($) - A horse ran away with wild mustangs. He just came home, 8 years later.
Eight years ago, Shane Adams jolted from the tent he was camping in — underwear-clad and scurrying to get dressed — when he heard a herd of wild mustangs zoom past. His heart broke when he saw his beloved horse had joined them, running off into the Utah desert.
Mongo, a gentle stallion who loved to munch on Sour Patch Kids candy, had been missing ever since, but Adams never let go of his hope that the horse would eventually find its way home. Last week, it finally happened when Mongo was returned by federal officers with the Bureau of Land Management.
“He was his calm, mellow and normal self — like he had never left at all,” Adams told The Washington Post. “But I was overjoyed. I couldn’t believe it. It was like a dream come true.”
Seeing Mongo — now 18 years old and “a few hundred pounds” skinnier — brought back a flood of memories . . . . [including] the dreaded scene of Mongo scurrying off into the brush-speckled landscape. Some six inches of snow covered the desert plains that cold March morning, Adams said.
“I ran after him and I tried driving, but I really couldn’t get anywhere because of the snow,” he said. “Then I went back every weekend for three years to see if he was there. I reported him missing and tried every person I could to find him. But I never saw Mongo again.”
In less than five minutes, Mongo had joined the approximately 71,000 wild mustangs that roam the West, according to Bureau of Land Management figures.
n Utah, some 22 herds have called the state home since the 1800s, most of them descending from horses that banded together after escaping from early settlers and ranchers. They now live on nearly 2.4 million acres controlled by the Bureau of Land Management. . . .
It was during [a] roundup in Tooele County that the Bureau of Land Management finally found Mongo, Adams said. Unlike the other horses, Mongo behaved like he had been trained in a previous life, and the branding in his coat was a telltale sign that he wasn’t feral like his mates.
Now that Mongo has returned home, Adams is trying to get him back to a more healthy weight after years of free-roaming on scarce land. . . .
And Adams isn’t the only one excited to see Mongo return. His daughter, who was a 3-month-old baby when the horse disappeared, is already showering him with kisses — and, of course, Sour Patch Kids.
“There’s not a lot of food out there with this drought, and the horses look like walking death because they’re so skinny,” he said. “I get why Mongo ran off — horses are tribal animals and will follow each other. But I’m happy we can take care of him now and make sure he eats enough food.”
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Except they are not weakened, are they? They are getting stronger week by week. Kit, better trained troops who know what salisbury plain is like etc.
I am optimistic that if Lukasheko enters the war then he will be brought down quite rapidly. The chaos could easily spread across into Russia as the military disaster unfolds and the public finally wake up.
Perhaps that is the real purpose of the reported large numbers of Russian troops ? To maintain the regime in Belarus.
Fascinating to see @Casino_Royale confess on here that he may have been supporting a fraud for some years.
Of course, the Tories were not always the ideologically bankrupt, paranoid death cult they’ve become.
‘Twas Europhobia wot wrought it.
The nutty wing has always been there I suppose, certainly since the era of John Major’s “bastards”, and the delusional choice of IDS over Clarke.
But it could be dismissed on one level as a distinctly minority sect, and besides, there *were* (or are) sensible and rational eurosceptic arguments, most notably over the Euro.
But Brexit itself seems either to have radicalised Eurosceptics, or unleashed a latent and terrifying Europhobia, and frankly there is a direct line from 2016 to today’s financial and ideological precipice.
Essentially, the Tory Party ejected the realists and are high on their own supply, to the point of death by overdose.
Patriots of all ideological flavours must wish that the Tory somehow expel the now-dominant lunatic wing, but it is not a certain thing. See Trump and the Republicans for details.
An argument that strains credulity for a whole host of reasons. Not least because the architect of the latest Conservative debacle was herself a very active and staunch Remainer throughout the referendum campaign. Trying to tie the economic policies revealed over the last few weeks to Brexit is tenuous to say the least. Moreover, we are in the position we are in as far as a resolution to Brexit goes because of yet another Remainer - Theresa May, who was utterly inept in everything she did.
The problems we face today are not because of Brexit, they are because the Tory party has long since proved itself unfit to govern - something I feel was the case even before Brexit.
They are not because of “Brexit” unto itself.
They are because of the way the Tory Party have campaigned for, prosecuted, and become radicalised through, Brexit.
A second-order effect, but a very clear one.
Nah. If it hadn't been Brexit it would have been something else. The fundamental problem is the underlying nature of the Tory party, not whatever cause they choose to attach themselves to.
This seems like a form of blindness to me. What is this fundamental dysfunction that can be separable from Euroscepticism?
Immigration. It incorporates elements of Euroscepticism in wanting to control FoM, but plans like Rwanda show that EU or no EU, the need to deport foreigners irrespective of economic necessity to please Dave from Boston runs through the heart of the Conservative party.
It’s a good suggestion, but neither Johnson nor Truss won control of the party on explicitly anti immigration platforms.
And immigration was not an issue during Major’s Maastricht meltdowns.
What certainly did happen is that Brexit had to appeal to often xenophobic sentiment in order to get over the line. But that was one of a number of Faustian bargains that ultimately contaminated the Brexit project entirely.
As I said yesterday, this is Putin's plan. I'm getting a bit bored of being right, TBH
"F*ck. Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after more Russian cruise missile strikes. Russia is serious about bombing Ukraine back into Stone Age by destroying all of its energy sources ... what a bunch of war criminals."
It's much harder than you think to permanently disrupt power generation.
Coal fired power stations are not very complex things, and they date back more than a century. They can almost certainly be patched up much more cheaply than Russia can lob cruise missiles and aircraft strikes.
I'm not saying he WILL do it but it is what he is trying to do, and this happened in Aleppo. But he needs a fuck of a lot of missiles and drones, because he will have to relentlessly pound the power stations/water all the way through the winter, so they cannot be repaired
Water could be as crucial as electricity. If you successfully cut a water supply you would get surrender in days, but I have no idea how difficult that is. You would probably need people on the ground to sabotage pipes?
This is an interesting thread :
UKRAINE WAR UPDATE
I have identified four intertwining paths to victory for Russia: (1) Mobilization ✅ (2) Massed Kalibr strikes on power infrastructure ✅ (3) Weaponized Kesslerization 🚀🪨🛰️💥 (4) Large-scale Chinese aid (🐉,🐻) Let's go through them.
Anatoly Karlin 🚀🪨🛰️💥
But if Russia was too incompetent or dysfunctional to surge Kalibr production in preceding months, and Ukrainians are trouncing Russians in counter-battery due to Western munitions & space-based ISR support with attendants effect on loss ratios, then it's on a path to defeat."
For anyone else who doesn't know Kesslerization equals causing a pile up in which ALL low earth orbit satellites are destroyed including US spy satellites.
This is probably the most important news from the war today.
NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports Belarus is handing over tanks, air defense systems and ammo to Russia. Today, several new echelons with equipment of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the direction of the Russian Federation were recorded at once, - Belarusian opposition media
First, Belarus will not join the war directly, otherwise it would keep its stock of spare equipment.
Second, Russia is likely reaching the limits of the usable equipment that it can bring back into service from its stores, and so it's ability to sustain the intensity of combat we have seen since February is nearing exhaustion.
Consequently, I believe we are nearer to the end of the war than the beginning.
The evidence is confusing
On the one hand Belarus is sending kit TO Russia. And yet on the other hand
"Jason Jay Smart, reporter for the Kyiv Post, said a Belarusian source told him hours after Mr Lukashenko’s statement that “Russian soldiers are entering Belarus by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars – just a huge quantity.”"
"Richard Shirreff, Nato’s former deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said: “The chilling factor here is the nuclear one and some form of nuclear escalation,” he said in an appearance at the Cheltenham Literature Festival.
“What we have not seen is Nato recognising that it has got to be prepared for the worst case and the worst case is war with Russia,” he said.""
Well that last bit’s a load of rubbish. NATO is holding its annual exercise in how they might deal with nuclear war instigated by Russia, next week.
Comments
People were fans of her on here long after she was making publicly detestable statements.
I would find your answer more nuanced if you substituted the Truss government and current MPs for the Labour governments of 60s 70s and parliament of 60’s 70s.
& The turnover has gone err... down.
Certainly we can, and should continue to have these debates.
But if you’re advocating stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine in order to force their agreeing to an armistice, then it’s hardly a slur to suggest you might be wavering in your support for them.
"Your mother is mainly lying dead over at rats.for.dinner, the rest of her is at armchair.warrior.twats"
Their tiny turnover is down? And they spent £43m??!
This may be one that I got spectacularly wrong. It's still a fabulous dreamy idea tho, and someone will make a version of it work
This same group that Chris Bryant did not condemn their actions on politics today at lunch and blamed the govt for.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/emergency-vehicles-blocked-by-just-stop-oil-protest-in-west-london-rush-hour/ar-AA12Pzw8?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=5ca29f061f7145349468cab5635a5feb
NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
@NOELreports
Belarus is handing over tanks, air defense systems and ammo to Russia. Today, several new echelons with equipment of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the direction of the Russian Federation were recorded at once, - Belarusian opposition media
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1579825433105018880
From this I conclude two things are likely.
First, Belarus will not join the war directly, otherwise it would keep its stock of spare equipment.
Second, Russia is likely reaching the limits of the usable equipment that it can bring back into service from its stores, and so it's ability to sustain the intensity of combat we have seen since February is nearing exhaustion.
Consequently, I believe we are nearer to the end of the war than the beginning.
https://twitter.com/nathanbenaich/status/1579714667890757632
The @stateofaireport 2022 is live!🪩
In its 5th year, the #stateofai report condenses what you *need* to know in AI research, industry, safety, and politics. This open-access report is our contribution to the AI ecosystem.
Here's my director's cut…
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/10/rspb-not-ruling-out-direct-action-to-defend-nature-from-government-policy
On the one hand Belarus is sending kit TO Russia. And yet on the other hand
"Jason Jay Smart, reporter for the Kyiv Post, said a Belarusian source told him hours after Mr Lukashenko’s statement that “Russian soldiers are entering Belarus by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars – just a huge quantity.”"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-news-russia-war-latest-b2200068.html
That article also contains this cheery paragraph
"Richard Shirreff, Nato’s former deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said: “The chilling factor here is the nuclear one and some form of nuclear escalation,” he said in an appearance at the Cheltenham Literature Festival.
“What we have not seen is Nato recognising that it has got to be prepared for the worst case and the worst case is war with Russia,” he said.""
As well as angry letters to the parish gazette
That is what interests me
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-apocalyptic-end-game-ukraine
TLDR: he's going all out. He has to win. If he looks like losing he will try and use nukes, and then we are relying on him being toppled, or disobeyed
You don't think there's anything cherry picking about picking out just 4 EU members and comparing them to the whole of the US? OK.
US population growth in the 90s was high owing to immigration. And Germany had a lost decade absorbing E Germany and working off the loss in competitiveness that caused. I think it makes more sense to look at the last twenty years, the 90s is ancient history economy-wise.
"How do you make deliveries without having a street name?
That's the problem the Gambian government is trying to resolve. Some cities and towns still have unnamed streets making the job of couriers a challenge. 🚚📦"
https://twitter.com/BBCAfrica/status/1557428845040500736
There is a solution ready and waiting. For some reason it is not being used
Alternatively Osborne created and used the OBR to give his voice and budgetary epistles more resonance and authority, trumping complaints from both opposition and the markets. Because Osborne was all about aligning with sound finance and balancing the books, and the scientists and economists in the OBR would always produce “judgements” that supported sound finance and balancing the books - but, as I said alternatively, should governments always balance the books? Everyone who voted for Corbyn and his 2019 manifesto need to appreciate in this KwasiCrisis, the OBR would have been no help at all to the incoming Labour government of 2020, so why should those Labours voters of 2019 be allowed to call for the gospel of the OBR today?
If anyone interested in this beautiful trap Eric Rosen first laid it out on youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oksV18QmCwo&t=119s
In particular, you're choosing a date just before Germany (which is by far the largest of the big four) went into a vicious multi-year post reunification downer*, while the US (and the UK) were bouncing back from their nasty 1990-1991 recessions.
The US has outperformed the Big Four economies of the EU (as was). As has Australia and Canada. It's also benefited from commodities, demographics, immigration and the strength of the US Dollar.
The question is - to what extent is the weakness of the EU countries simply the same demographics driven weakness we've seen in Japan, and to what extent is it caused by the structural rigidities of the EU.
* Having Germany substantially underperform Italy is the big give away. No-one living in Italy thinks they've outperformed Germany over the last quarter century.
Damn shame if the idea can't be made to work. It would improve lives
What 5 English Test Cricketers.
Now I have no idea, they have an office in Ulaanbaatar, they have open job listings their for video editors. I think they are high on their own supply, confusing the ability to raise cash in an low interest rate envitonemnt awash with VC money.
It is really hard to imagine what Putin and his general's are hoping to achieve, short of demilitarizing the whole country.
Maybe they were expecting supplies from China that haven't materialised?
Unless you think there is something wrong with the democracy we have in UK, for I have just beautifully described how it works, have I not?
Putin.
But he has been egged on, by people who could instead have said "Don't...."
Quoi trois mots.
"Belarus orders its troops to be tested for 'combat readiness' after 'huge quantities of Russian soldiers entered the country' - as Lukashenko's secret service says Ukrainian invasion 'turning point' will come within weeks"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11302043/Putins-soldiers-entering-Belarus-huge-quantities-waves-trains.html
Despite evidence that Belarus is sending kit to Russia, I still think Putin's plan is this:
Weaken Ukraine internally, as much as possible, by pounding the infrastructure as long as he can. As winter kicks in this will really hurt (if he is effective)
Then invade Ukraine again from the north, from Belarus, probably alongside Belarus troops (Belarus will be ordered to help)
Aim for another quick drive to seize Kyiv, topple Zelensky, and win the war against a weakened Ukraine
That's the theory, I reckon
Of course, the Tories were not always the ideologically bankrupt, paranoid death cult they’ve become.
‘Twas Europhobia wot wrought it.
The nutty wing has always been there I suppose, certainly since the era of John Major’s “bastards”, and the delusional choice of IDS over Clarke.
But it could be dismissed on one level as a distinctly minority sect, and besides, there *were* (or are) sensible and rational eurosceptic arguments, most notably over the Euro.
But Brexit itself seems either to have radicalised Eurosceptics, or unleashed a latent and terrifying Europhobia, and frankly there is a direct line from 2016 to today’s financial and ideological precipice.
Essentially, the Tory Party ejected the realists and are high on their own supply, to the point of death by overdose.
Patriots of all ideological flavours must wish that the Tories somehow throw off their now-dominant lunatic wing, but it is not a certain thing. See Trump and the Republicans for details.
Putin invaded in 2014 because of the revolution in Ukraine and their lurch Westward, not because of who was in the White House.
Now, would he have held back in 2022 if Trump had been President? Who knows. Maybe, maybe not.
We do know, however, that Trump tried to blackmail Zelenskyy regarding military aid. And we do know that Trump repeatedly sucked up to Putin.
With that said, I do think America's hasty and chaotic departure from Afghanistan played a role in emboldening Putin.
Coal fired power stations are not very complex things, and they date back more than a century. They can almost certainly be patched up much more cheaply than Russia can lob cruise missiles and aircraft strikes.
The only surprise is there isn't a LibDem council candidate in shot claiming the credit!
https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1579847171264110593/photo/1
I would probably have wasted a good few seconds thinking about that in a bullet game, which might well be worth the pawn in any case.
About 99% of PB are overtly political herd who have simply been blaming the tax cuts for the problems these past three weeks.
in your own sweet dreamland you were sure you knew what you were talking about. But it’s time to wake up to reality Now PB.
Let’s do the maths again and see what really spooks the market.
Cost of the mini budget -
£45B of tax cuts minus £2B on a u-turn minus £30B of stealth tax take from fiscal drag = £13B NET (noted £13B net hardly a booster growth budget it was sold as - but not is anything for IMF to get shirty about or for markets to get unduly troubled by, is it).
But.
Cost of the energy support package -
£250B Net. (Possibly a little more or a little less based on borrowing cost/energy price when purchased by energy companies variables)
Oh come on, surely the pennys dropping now?
Water could be as crucial as electricity. If you successfully cut a water supply you would get surrender in days, but I have no idea how difficult that is. You would probably need people on the ground to sabotage pipes?
This is an interesting thread :
UKRAINE WAR UPDATE
I have identified four intertwining paths to victory for Russia:
(1) Mobilization ✅
(2) Massed Kalibr strikes on power infrastructure ✅
(3) Weaponized Kesslerization 🚀🪨🛰️💥
(4) Large-scale Chinese aid (🐉,🐻)
Let's go through them.
Anatoly Karlin 🚀🪨🛰️💥
But if Russia was too incompetent or dysfunctional to surge Kalibr production in preceding months, and Ukrainians are trouncing Russians in counter-battery due to Western munitions & space-based ISR support with attendants effect on loss ratios, then it's on a path to defeat."
https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1579582778433499136?s=20&t=KWoQMp3KdFvbYfXThh86RQ
The problems we face today are not because of Brexit, they are because the Tory party has long since proved itself unfit to govern - something I feel was the case even before Brexit.
As would, for example, advertising in support of independence.
They are because of the way the Tory Party have campaigned for, prosecuted, and become radicalised through, Brexit.
A second-order effect, but a very clear one.
It has a conscript army. Many of whom would have voted for the real winner of the Presidential election, not Lukashenko.
It has an annual military budget of c$650m.
The US military aid to Ukraine so far is equivalent to 27 years of Belarus's military spend.
Belarus couldn't take Newcastle on a Friday night.
Melchett: Now, Field Marshal Haig has formulated a brilliant tactical plan to ensure final victory in the field
Blackadder: Would this brilliant plan involve us climbing over the top of our trenches and walking, very slowly towards the enemy?
Darling: How did you know that Blackadder? It's classified information
Blackadder: It's the same plan we used last time, and the seventeen times before that
Melchett: E-e-exactly! And that is what is so brilliant about it. It will catch the watchful Hun totally off guard. Doing exactly what we've done eighteen times before will be the last thing they expect us to do this time.
What is this fundamental dysfunction that can be separable from Euroscepticism?
Putin's PLAN is to weaken Ukraine at home by relentlessly pulverising infrastructure. But can he, and for how long?
Doesn't look as though they think Covid is gone away!
I’m attacking the Starmer/Truss energy price guarantee from the left. It’s regressive. Unlike the variable price cap it doesn’t give those in need enough support whilst splaying cash wastefully at the rich who don’t need it. The Starmer/Truss Energy Price guarantee is quarter of a trillion of borrowing - that means maxing out the UK credit limit and locking in higher bills and higher taxes on working people in future to pay it off (unless you claim it will all be paid off by growth) whilst variable price cap virtually pays for itself.
Thanks Sunil, for giving me the chance to explain how you are clearly backing the wrong horse.
Now, they may be banking on the GOP taking Congress and restricting aid but even that is a daft plan - there are enough GOP members to side with the Ds to continue funding.
Seattle Times ($) copied from Washington Post ($) - A horse ran away with wild mustangs. He just came home, 8 years later.
Eight years ago, Shane Adams jolted from the tent he was camping in — underwear-clad and scurrying to get dressed — when he heard a herd of wild mustangs zoom past. His heart broke when he saw his beloved horse had joined them, running off into the Utah desert.
Mongo, a gentle stallion who loved to munch on Sour Patch Kids candy, had been missing ever since, but Adams never let go of his hope that the horse would eventually find its way home. Last week, it finally happened when Mongo was returned by federal officers with the Bureau of Land Management.
“He was his calm, mellow and normal self — like he had never left at all,” Adams told The Washington Post. “But I was overjoyed. I couldn’t believe it. It was like a dream come true.”
Seeing Mongo — now 18 years old and “a few hundred pounds” skinnier — brought back a flood of memories . . . . [including] the dreaded scene of Mongo scurrying off into the brush-speckled landscape. Some six inches of snow covered the desert plains that cold March morning, Adams said.
“I ran after him and I tried driving, but I really couldn’t get anywhere because of the snow,” he said. “Then I went back every weekend for three years to see if he was there. I reported him missing and tried every person I could to find him. But I never saw Mongo again.”
In less than five minutes, Mongo had joined the approximately 71,000 wild mustangs that roam the West, according to Bureau of Land Management figures.
n Utah, some 22 herds have called the state home since the 1800s, most of them descending from horses that banded together after escaping from early settlers and ranchers. They now live on nearly 2.4 million acres controlled by the Bureau of Land Management. . . .
It was during [a] roundup in Tooele County that the Bureau of Land Management finally found Mongo, Adams said. Unlike the other horses, Mongo behaved like he had been trained in a previous life, and the branding in his coat was a telltale sign that he wasn’t feral like his mates.
Now that Mongo has returned home, Adams is trying to get him back to a more healthy weight after years of free-roaming on scarce land. . . .
And Adams isn’t the only one excited to see Mongo return. His daughter, who was a 3-month-old baby when the horse disappeared, is already showering him with kisses — and, of course, Sour Patch Kids.
“There’s not a lot of food out there with this drought, and the horses look like walking death because they’re so skinny,” he said. “I get why Mongo ran off — horses are tribal animals and will follow each other. But I’m happy we can take care of him now and make sure he eats enough food.”
To maintain the regime in Belarus.
And immigration was not an issue during Major’s Maastricht meltdowns.
What certainly did happen is that Brexit had to appeal to often xenophobic sentiment in order to get over the line. But that was one of a number of Faustian bargains that ultimately contaminated the Brexit project entirely.
Has the BoE been found out?
For anyone else who doesn't know Kesslerization equals causing a pile up in which ALL low earth orbit satellites are destroyed including US spy satellites.
NATO is holding its annual exercise in how they might deal with nuclear war instigated by Russia, next week.