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Starmer still strong betting favourite for post-election PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    It got the the point where a consultant temp couldn’t even claim for their own hotel, transport and subsistence costs, making it almost impossible for the genuinely self-employed white-collar consultants to earn a living.
    The original, real, reasons that IR35 was introduced was

    1) lobbying by the big consultancies - who were being undercut by customers buying in individual contractors and
    2) by the bizarre way that many areas of government, local and central, din't ban leaving your job on a Friday and returning as a contractor on a Monday.

    The later occurred very early n the contractor rush (pre 2000s) in th private sector, but was quickly eliminated by putting a clause in employment contracts which banned the practise.
    The problem is £70bn of revenue that is employers NI. Looking at the figures the estimated cost is £2bn a year - which is really going to be a gross underestimate this time round...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
    DA says optimum is 92-96rpm for him - how do we know what our own optimum is and isn't it likely that we are all roughly the same in this regard anyway?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    Except IR35 has created no end of problems in it's own right. It's more than just a loophole.

    If the Treasury gets less money from Employers NI it will be easier to abolish it, and put incentive on the Treasury to find alternative revenues streams instead of fleecing the golden goose.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,759
    edited September 2022
    So, huge tax cuts for the richest 2%, lots more dosh for wealthy bankers, inflationary measures on house prices, tax cuts for wealthy foreign shoppers. Oh, and threats to those on UC if they can't/won't increase their hours.

    I think the Chancellor's having a Laffer.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,232
    edited September 2022

    MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    i think merging Ni with IT is difficult given that pensions are taxed - Relief on pension savings is only on income tax so if you start taxing pension income with what is effectively NI through a higher merged rate it would be unfair
    This is not actually true, or at least it’s only partially true.

    It’s true for employees: For employers, pension contributions don’t attract NI or income tax & count as an allowable expense for the purposes of calculating corporation tax.

    Do the overwhelming majority of pension contributions still come from employers rather than employees? (Often there’s a contribution from both: I presume this is mostly employers who in the past have realised their pension funds are under-funded & wanted to raise contributions without increasing staffing costs.)
  • Presumably there isn't a parliamentary vote on a non-budget.

    If there was, surely Johnson and Sunak would have to vote against this reversal of their policies?

    Only if they wanted to lose the whip. Which Johnson couldn't object to, turnabout is fair play.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
    Yes...

    Generally, high cadence = load on cardiovascular system, low cadence = load on muscles. You've got to find the cadence where your body makes the best power. This will differ for your 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute power numbers.

    If your cycling is not a minutely analysed, numbers driven experience of pure agony you're not doing it right. Golgotha by spreadsheet is the goal.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    Except IR35 has created no end of problems in it's own right. It's more than just a loophole.

    If the Treasury gets less money from Employers NI it will be easier to abolish it, and put incentive on the Treasury to find alternative revenues streams instead of fleecing the golden goose.
    No, it just means the next government, Labour, will push up NI for the rest of us.
  • eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    And that is what every social worker and lorry driver agency will be doing come April 5th 2023.

    Because it's the easiest and cheapest way of maximising pay and removes whole areas of pain regarding things such as Holiday Pay (which is now a grade A disaster following the recent Bazel supreme court judgement)..

    The other thing worth pointing out is that under the old rules HMRC can't actually handle that many IR35 as everyone needs to be done individually. The whole point of the 2017/21 IR35 was to allow HMRC to take 1 case and extrapolate it to the other 5000 contractors working at that end client.
    But what it actually did is result in every single contractor at the end client being inside IR35 whether they should have been or not under the rules. In 11 years I had two IR35 inspections by HMRC (well actually they just went to my accountants rather than to me personally). In both cases I was found to be outside IR35 by HMRC themselves on all my contracts. When the rules changed in 2021, every single one of my clients looked at the penalties for getting IR35 designation wrong and introduced blanket decisions putting all contractors inside IR35. They simply weren't willing to risk getting it wrong and being fined by HMRC. It also saved them a fortune in administration costs that they would have had to pay had they done all the appraisals individually as they were supposed to according to HMRC guidance.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
    DA says optimum is 92-96rpm for him - how do we know what our own optimum is and isn't it likely that we are all roughly the same in this regard anyway?
    It depends on your fitness level, a higher level of fitness means you can be more efficient at higher RPM. Presumably a personal trainer can give you an idea, on a simulator or gym bike?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    Except IR35 has created no end of problems in it's own right. It's more than just a loophole.

    If the Treasury gets less money from Employers NI it will be easier to abolish it, and put incentive on the Treasury to find alternative revenues streams instead of fleecing the golden goose.
    No, it just means the next government, Labour, will push up NI for the rest of us.
    Or they'll tax landlords or they'll raise income tax or ...

    What they do is up to them, but if NI raises less it will be less attractive for that to be the easy option to raise.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,232
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
    Exactly. You should be spinning up that hill in order to achieve max efficiency. Why would you want to go up a hill in anything other than the most efficient gear possible!
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    Except IR35 has created no end of problems in it's own right. It's more than just a loophole.

    If the Treasury gets less money from Employers NI it will be easier to abolish it, and put incentive on the Treasury to find alternative revenues streams instead of fleecing the golden goose.
    IR35 is a right bloody mess. Whilst I don't think the abolition of the last two sets of changes should be the end destination, it is a necessary step. And the same with tax simplification - it is far too complex. Both of which are made worse by the previous sweeping cuts to HMRC staff and resources.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Scott_xP said:

    Exactly this. Truss and Kwarteng are running a giant experiment, a test of the ideas of Reynolds, Laffer, Mundell et al with 67m participants. Seen this way, the initial popularity of those ideas don't matter: either the ideas work, or Truss and her allies are toast anyway. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370

    Bart, the other day, said this wasn't the Kansas Experiment all over again. It now looks more and more like that.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022
    I think we’re condemned to this, every two or three decades, the right have another crack at going hardcore laffer.

    When it doesn’t work, they conclude it wasn’t implemented hard enough.

    They’re the mirror image of the idiot hardcore socialists.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited September 2022

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    Except IR35 has created no end of problems in it's own right. It's more than just a loophole.

    If the Treasury gets less money from Employers NI it will be easier to abolish it, and put incentive on the Treasury to find alternative revenues streams instead of fleecing the golden goose.
    IR35 is a right bloody mess. Whilst I don't think the abolition of the last two sets of changes should be the end destination, it is a necessary step. And the same with tax simplification - it is far too complex. Both of which are made worse by the previous sweeping cuts to HMRC staff and resources.
    Those sweeping cuts to HMRC staff and resources means that to all intents and purposes IR35 is scrapped from April 2023....

    The reason why the 2017 and 2021 changes occurred was because IR35 as was couldn't be controlled because IR35 investigations are expensive and very time / resource consuming for HMRC.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,666

    rkrkrk said:

    Whatever else, all these changes are decisive & help Truss make the case that she is not just continuity Boris Johnson.

    I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.

    AFAIK, no government has ever targeted lower economic growth, so I suppose the question we should be asking is what the government is targeting less in order to target economic growth more, and is that a good idea?
    Without wishing to rehash the austerity debate, I think that was a pretty implicit targeting of lower growth in exchange for trying to reduce the deficit. Other govts in past have targeted reducing inflation, social progress etc.

    Personally - I think this isn't going to end well. But I'm intrigued to see how it goes!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,356
    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.
  • I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
    Yes...

    Generally, high cadence = load on cardiovascular system, low cadence = load on muscles. You've got to find the cadence where your body makes the best power. This will differ for your 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute power numbers.

    If your cycling is not a minutely analysed, numbers driven experience of pure agony you're not doing it right. Golgotha by spreadsheet is the goal.
    I think I've known I haven't been doing it right for some time but I am now going to take more notice of my constant motion to find that bite point. Plus I don't want to ride into the verge while updating my spreadsheet.
  • 5 year gilt yields going parabolic. Up 300bp in the last 6 months, up 200bp in the last month, up almost 100bp in the last week. Cable close to 1.11.
  • Scrapping the Osborne and Hammond IR35 tax grabs is the right move, and it will sure up support in blue wall constituencies that might be Lib Dem curious. Technically it's bad for me in my current contract because I have an "Outside IR35" status determination from the client and this means the liability shifts away from them and back to me, but for future work it's great news.
  • Government costings, based on OBR Spring 2022 economic estimates.

    Numbers will be very optimistic.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-growth-plan-2022-documents/the-growth-plan-2022-html

    Table 4.2: The Growth Plan 2022 policy decisions (£ million) (1)
    Head 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
    Cutting taxes for people
    1 National Insurance: reverse temporary 1.25pp increase in NICs rates from November 2022, and cancel the Health and Social Care Levy (2) Tax -6,930 -16,955 -17,210 -17,685 -18,185
    2 Memo: increased tax yield due to higher wages and profits as a result of the tax change (3) +860 +2,620 +2,720 +2,825 +2,935
    3 Memo: net Exchequer cost of reversing temporary 1.25pp increase in NICs rates from November 2022, and cancelling the Health and Social Care Levy (4) -6,070 -14,335 -14,490 -14,860 -15,250
    4 Dividend Tax: reverse 1.25% increase to rates, from April 2023 Tax 0 -1,440 +995 -1,090 -885
    5 Income Tax: reduce the basic rate from 20% to 19% from April 2023 (5) Tax 0 -5,270 -535 +280 +45
    6 Income Tax: remove the additional rates of income tax from April 2023 (6) Tax -2,365 +625 -795 -2,190 -2,065
    7 Stamp Duty Land Tax: increases to nil-rate thresholds (7) Tax -795 -1,450 -1,535 -1,595 -1,655
    8 Tax-free shopping: introducing a modern, digital, VAT-free shopping scheme Tax 0 0 -1,265 -1,955 -2,060
    Cutting taxes for businesses
    9 Corporation Tax: cancel planned rate increase, maintaining rate at 19% from April 2023 (8) Tax -2,265 -12,365 -16,570 -17,610 -18,710
    10 Bank CT Surcharge: maintain rate at 8% and set allowance at £100m from April 2023 Tax +220 +885 +1,065 +1,085 +1,090
    11 Annual Investment Allowance (AIA): permanently set at £1m from April 2023 Tax -245 -930 -1,365 -1,440 -1,335
    12 Employee share schemes: Company Share Option Plan reforms (share class and £60k option limit) from April 2023 Tax 0 -10 -20 -25 -115
    13 Venture capital schemes: increase Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme limits from April 2023 Tax 0 0 -45 -30 -35
    Simplifying the tax system
    14 Off-payroll working: reduce burdens on business by repealing the off-payroll working reforms from April 2023 Tax 0 -1,110 -1,365 -1,670 -2,045
    15 Alcohol Duty: freeze all duties for one year from 1 February 2023 Tax -80 -545 -565 -590 -610
    16 Alcohol Duty: post-consultation changes to reform package Tax +25 -15 -80 -30 -30
    Previously announced
    17 Cost of living support package announced in May 2022 Spend -15,350 0 0 0 0
    18 Energy Bills Support Scheme: cancellation of clawback Tax 0 -1,195 -1,195 -1,195 -1,195
    19 Energy Profits Levy (9) Tax +7,730 +10,410 +6,420 +3,500 +60
    Total policy decisions (10) -19,195 -26,745 -31,345 -39,415 -44,795
    o/w Total spending policy decisions -15,350 0 0 0 0
    o/w Total tax policy decisions -3,845 -26,745 -31,345 -39,415 -44,795
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    Except IR35 has created no end of problems in it's own right. It's more than just a loophole.

    If the Treasury gets less money from Employers NI it will be easier to abolish it, and put incentive on the Treasury to find alternative revenues streams instead of fleecing the golden goose.
    No, it just means the next government, Labour, will push up NI for the rest of us.
    Or they'll tax landlords or they'll raise income tax or ...

    What they do is up to them, but if NI raises less it will be less attractive for that to be the easy option to raise.
    No, NI is an easy target. People think it's related to NHS spending and as you have pointed out many times, a 1% headline rise in the rate actually brings in close to double what a 1% rise in income tax does.

    If NI raises less then the onus will be to put the rate up to make up for the losses, not to eliminate it.
  • "The OBR will come up with a full forecast before the end of the year".

    But we know from the Tory chair of the Treasury Select Committee that they have already issued a forecast. That he will not publish it tells you all you need to know about how economically damaging this special economic statement is.

    Its a long long way down the road from Osborne creating the OBR and mandating that all economic measures needed to be objectively validated. Same party in the same period of government, two radically different reads on how to handle it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep! Maybe I’ll buy a watch in London this Christmas.

    Panerai or GTFO.
    I assume Panerais were issued to the manned torpedo suicide jockeys?


    Panerai supplied watches and other instruments to the Marina Militare in WW2 although the watches all had Rolex movements in those days. Decima Flottiglia wore Panerais when they rode their underwater Vespas to blow up the previous HMS Queen Elizabeth in Alexandria.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
    Yes...

    Generally, high cadence = load on cardiovascular system, low cadence = load on muscles. You've got to find the cadence where your body makes the best power. This will differ for your 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute power numbers.

    If your cycling is not a minutely analysed, numbers driven experience of pure agony you're not doing it right. Golgotha by spreadsheet is the goal.
    No nails on the road, one hopes.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,939

    rkrkrk said:

    Whatever else, all these changes are decisive & help Truss make the case that she is not just continuity Boris Johnson.

    I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.

    Is there ever a time when we shouldn't be targeting growth? The previous Conservative administration talked about targeting growth, and the one before that. And the one before that. And they all set up special economic zones too.
    All governments target growth. This might be the one that finally pulls the trigger and kills it.
  • Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    They won't turn. Well, not in that direction...
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    Except IR35 has created no end of problems in it's own right. It's more than just a loophole.

    If the Treasury gets less money from Employers NI it will be easier to abolish it, and put incentive on the Treasury to find alternative revenues streams instead of fleecing the golden goose.
    No, it just means the next government, Labour, will push up NI for the rest of us.
    Or they'll tax landlords or they'll raise income tax or ...

    What they do is up to them, but if NI raises less it will be less attractive for that to be the easy option to raise.
    No, NI is an easy target. People think it's related to NHS spending and as you have pointed out many times, a 1% headline rise in the rate actually brings in close to double what a 1% rise in income tax does.

    If NI raises less then the onus will be to put the rate up to make up for the losses, not to eliminate it.
    Make NI a hard target by rolling it into income tax. Maybe Kwarteng is saving that for his first full budget.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    Timing is against it. Nobody wants a winter GE, by March any drag because of CoL will have kicked in. And i think todays policies are designed to get votes in 2024 if we get through in good order with the gamble/theory paying off
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    PaulSimon said:

    Scrapping the Osborne and Hammond IR35 tax grabs is the right move, and it will sure up support in blue wall constituencies that might be Lib Dem curious. Technically it's bad for me in my current contract because I have an "Outside IR35" status determination from the client and this means the liability shifts away from them and back to me, but for future work it's great news.

    Um - it's perfect for your current assignment because both you and your end client are fully aligned regarding the status of your contract...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    Except IR35 has created no end of problems in it's own right. It's more than just a loophole.

    If the Treasury gets less money from Employers NI it will be easier to abolish it, and put incentive on the Treasury to find alternative revenues streams instead of fleecing the golden goose.
    No, it just means the next government, Labour, will push up NI for the rest of us.
    Or they'll tax landlords or they'll raise income tax or ...

    What they do is up to them, but if NI raises less it will be less attractive for that to be the easy option to raise.
    No, NI is an easy target. People think it's related to NHS spending and as you have pointed out many times, a 1% headline rise in the rate actually brings in close to double what a 1% rise in income tax does.

    If NI raises less then the onus will be to put the rate up to make up for the losses, not to eliminate it.
    Make NI a hard target by rolling it into income tax. Maybe Kwarteng is saving that for his first full budget.
    Merging it all makes a lot of sense but it hits old people and the Tories will never do that in the run up to an election.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    These tax cuts are reminiscent of the Trump tax cuts, they got the US economy growing but ordinary people felt none of the benefits of that growth.

    I fear that in order to chase a higher headline rate the Tories have forgotten that people in the middle need to feel as though they are better off than they were last year. I'm not sure that someone earning over £150k counts as middle or a banker now able to get a 10x multiple bonus does either.

    The US economy grew almost identically under Obama as it did under Trump. The difference was that Obama reduced the deficit bit Trump massively increased it.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    Odds on if the polls turn....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    Unlikely IMHO. There’s shedloads of known unknowns in the next six months.

    Many of today’s changes will take a year or so to work through.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Phil said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
    Exactly. You should be spinning up that hill in order to achieve max efficiency. Why would you want to go up a hill in anything other than the most efficient gear possible!
    Well I do a bit of horseback riding which requires strong leg/thigh muscles so I take that opportunity to prepare when I'm on the bike over the summer.

    But now that we are in October I can look to maximise the efficiency of the bike rides.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    I have no fucking idea what any of this budget wank means but the consensus seems to be that it's pure mentalism from Jizzy Lizzy and KK.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    I thought the thing was these days to go to that place in Shanghai (other markets are available I'm sure) to get your expert fake watch.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    So wild eceonomic irresponsibility, bonuses for bankers, and nothing whatsoever on universal credit, as far I understand it, even though millions are about to become destitute in two weeks, when the next price rise pre-cap comes into force.

    Given what I hear from my friends on the Trussell administrative side backing up Brown's prediction of some not only facing mulnutrion but even starvation over the winter, this idiotic government may provoke a situation of genuine unrest over the upcoming months.

    I'm not one to support non-peaceful disruption, but if a programme of peaceful demonstrations isn't called for now, then when is it.

    Enough is Enough indeed, as the anti-energy price rises protest organisation calls itself.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486

    Good to see the back of IR35, the latest incarnation of which put the onus on clients to decide whether a supplier was inside or outside its scope.

    That's probably the reason it was done. (I.e. to remove an administrative burden from business.)
    Indeed. It had the potential to be a living nightmare for agencies, and companies that used a lot of freelancers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Bill McLaren voice: they’ll be dancing in Tufton Street tonight
    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1573250688930689025
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,666

    rkrkrk said:

    Whatever else, all these changes are decisive & help Truss make the case that she is not just continuity Boris Johnson.

    I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.

    Is there ever a time when we shouldn't be targeting growth? The previous Conservative administration talked about targeting growth, and the one before that. And the one before that. And they all set up special economic zones too.
    I mean no one explicitly targets economic decline, but I think the previous Conservative govt (certainly George Osborne era) was quite clearly targeting reducing the deficit & cutting spending, regardless of the impact on growth. So they slashed capital spending (the purpose of which is to generate growth).
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    Tris are very druggy even by cycling standards so get on the hot sauce.


  • Scott_xP said:

    Exactly this. Truss and Kwarteng are running a giant experiment, a test of the ideas of Reynolds, Laffer, Mundell et al with 67m participants. Seen this way, the initial popularity of those ideas don't matter: either the ideas work, or Truss and her allies are toast anyway. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370

    Bart, the other day, said this wasn't the Kansas Experiment all over again. It now looks more and more like that.
    The Kansas experiment RAISED taxes on low earnt incomes while abolishing them on unearned (ie non NI) ones.

    This is certainly something significant, but it's its own thing, not that.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,810

    5 year gilt yields going parabolic. Up 300bp in the last 6 months, up 200bp in the last month, up almost 100bp in the last week. Cable close to 1.11.

    That's yields in nominal terms. They have fallen in real terms, which matters much more.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 555
    Dura_Ace said:

    pm215 said:

    In the traditional 3-at-front 6-at-back type gear setup, you aren't supposed to use them all -- combinations like outermost front with innermost rear or innermost front with outermost rear aren't good for the chain. For the rest, it depends on the terrain, but if you're anywhere hilly you will likely be wanting both the lowest and the highest gear you've got.

    The Big-Big position has now be rehabilitated by Tony Martin and other TT specialists. It's an efficiency and therefore power gain because Big-Big minimises the articulation of each chain link and frictional drivetrain losses.
    Interesting. Does that still apply to those of us who don't have a mechanic to replace the chain after every race? :-)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,666

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    Are the following numbers correct ? Ignoring pension, claimable items...
    Salary: £40k
    Tax @ 19% = £5211.70
    NI @ 12% = £3291.60
    Employer NI @ 13.8% = £3785.43

    Take home: £31496.70 Cost to employer: £43,785.34

    Through company:
    Salary: £12,570
    Profit: £27,430
    Corp tax on profit: £5211.70
    Dividend tax on post tax profits less £2,000 allowance @ 7.5% : £1516.37

    Take home : £33,271.93 Cost to employer (Sorry supplier *cough*) £40,000 (VAT is in and out) ?
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited September 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Are the following numbers correct ? Ignoring pension, claimable items...
    Salary: £40k
    Tax @ 19% = £5211.70
    NI @ 12% = £3291.60
    Employer NI @ 13.8% = £3785.43

    Take home: £31496.70 Cost to employer: £43,785.34

    Through company:
    Salary: £12,570
    Profit: £27,430
    Corp tax on profit: £5211.70
    Dividend tax on post tax profits less £2,000 allowance @ 7.5% : £1516.37

    Take home : £33,271.93 Cost to employer (Sorry supplier *cough*) £40,000 (VAT is in and out) ?

    Yep - that's right except I don't think dividend tax has changed so it's 8.75% (from memory).

    Going forward a lot more work is going to be given to contractors because it's already well known that HMRC can't process old fashioned IR35 cases...
  • Is this being said with pleasure, or as part of a discreet distancing?

    A massive moment for iealondon. They’ve been advocating these policies for years. They incubated Truss and Kwarteng during their early years as MPs. Britain is now their laboratory.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I have no fucking idea what any of this budget wank means but the consensus seems to be that it's pure mentalism from Jizzy Lizzy and KK.

    What's a contrarian to do?
  • "The OBR will come up with a full forecast before the end of the year".

    But we know from the Tory chair of the Treasury Select Committee that they have already issued a forecast. That he will not publish it tells you all you need to know about how economically damaging this special economic statement is.

    Its a long long way down the road from Osborne creating the OBR and mandating that all economic measures needed to be objectively validated. Same party in the same period of government, two radically different reads on how to handle it.

    The problem is that the government needs the OBR to show today's Tufton Street fever dream leading to far higher economic growth, otherwise the public finances are going to look awful. But the OBR won't do this, because they are not drinking the Kool Aid. The government has about a month to fix this. I am guessing there will be some attempt to "inject new thinking" into the OBR and if that doesn't work they will start to brief against it viciously.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    £/$ 1.1099
  • Is this being said with pleasure, or as part of a discreet distancing?

    A massive moment for iealondon. They’ve been advocating these policies for years. They incubated Truss and Kwarteng during their early years as MPs. Britain is now their laboratory.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370

    Who voted to be a Guinea pig?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,876
    edited September 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep! Maybe I’ll buy a watch in London this Christmas.

    Panerai or GTFO.
    I assume Panerais were issued to the manned torpedo suicide jockeys?


    Panerai supplied watches and other instruments to the Marina Militare in WW2 although the watches all had Rolex movements in those days. Decima Flottiglia wore Panerais when they rode their underwater Vespas to blow up the previous HMS Queen Elizabeth in Alexandria.
    On checking Wiki they were more successful than I had assumed. Rather grimly towards the end of the war the Decima was deployed mainly on land in anti partisan actions, including several massacres. War is shit, part 248.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,127
    alex_ said:

    Could I just point out that the Govt haven’t remotely got an electoral mandate for all this.

    Except for an ~80 seat majority.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Whatever else, all these changes are decisive & help Truss make the case that she is not just continuity Boris Johnson.

    I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.

    Is there ever a time when we shouldn't be targeting growth? The previous Conservative administration talked about targeting growth, and the one before that. And the one before that. And they all set up special economic zones too.
    I mean no one explicitly targets economic decline, but I think the previous Conservative govt (certainly George Osborne era) was quite clearly targeting reducing the deficit & cutting spending, regardless of the impact on growth. So they slashed capital spending (the purpose of which is to generate growth).
    You still had things like the 2015 Productivity Plan, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/productivity-plan-launched , under Osborne.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    Catching up with the Krazy Kwarteng speech.

    Where does his first claim that UK has 2nd lowest debt:GDP in the G7 come from?

    For Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, it looks carefully selected and perhaps wrong.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    Driver said:

    alex_ said:

    Could I just point out that the Govt haven’t remotely got an electoral mandate for all this.

    Except for an ~80 seat majority.
    It’s bait and switch.

    They played the working class like a violin.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    It's interesting. You can be fit and have a good crack at so many sports but swimming seems to be in a world of its own. I rated and rate myself as pretty fit and still end up being one of those irritating people who has to stand up, goggles off, to take a breather at the end of each length. Whereas a mate of mine who was short(er) and fat(ter) than me and got out of breath easily was also a competitive swimmer and flew through the water like a thing that flies through the water and was super impressive.
  • ping said:

    £/$ 1.1099

    We've had enough of experts
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,939
    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    I did a similar triathlon in my late twenties (was imperial distances, although similar ballpark). Was an annual work thing and I'd always competed in a team before and we normally won - I did the cycle and generally came second fastest in that. My two team mates had left so I thought I'd have a crack at the whole thing myself. Run and cycle were both withing my normal exercise routines, swim I thought how hard can it be, went to the pool twice in the run up and managed to do the distance in lengths and thought that's fine. On the day, in the cold sea, I really struggled. Completely knackered, had to sit for five minutes getting my breathing back before the second stage (swim was first). Completed it and was still fourth fastest in the cycle, but man I should have prepped properly with some serious pool time and some real sea practice too.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036
    edited September 2022
    Fishing said:

    5 year gilt yields going parabolic. Up 300bp in the last 6 months, up 200bp in the last month, up almost 100bp in the last week. Cable close to 1.11.

    That's yields in nominal terms. They have fallen in real terms, which matters much more.
    No they haven't. 5 year breakeven inflation is only about 70bp above where is was a year ago. Most of the rise in 5 year nominal yields comes from higher real yields.
  • Is this being said with pleasure, or as part of a discreet distancing?

    A massive moment for iealondon. They’ve been advocating these policies for years. They incubated Truss and Kwarteng during their early years as MPs. Britain is now their laboratory.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370

    Who voted to be a Guinea pig?
    Right now, it's an attractive prospect. Fur to keep you warm, all the sunflower seeds you can eat, lots of sawdust to hide in, away from all of this...
  • Tax cuts for the rich, withholding benefits from the poor.

    Leveling up.
  • ping said:

    £/$ 1.1099

    We've had enough of experts
    What do the experts say about the wisdom of targeting a particular exchange rate?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    Perhaps if the war in Ukraine ends with Ukrainian victory, and Truss walks the streets of Kiev arm in arm with Zelensky, plus a 10 point poll leads, she might be tempted. Seems unlikely though. I think the 18 months of energy provision is the key indicator for May 2024 being the target date. Plus boundary changes will have kicked in.
  • Is this being said with pleasure, or as part of a discreet distancing?

    A massive moment for iealondon. They’ve been advocating these policies for years. They incubated Truss and Kwarteng during their early years as MPs. Britain is now their laboratory.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370

    Who voted to be a Guinea pig?
    Or Richard Gere’s gerbil?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576

    Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    They won't turn. Well, not in that direction...
    Brave prediction. Lots of less politically obsessed people are going to be getting a reduction in tax. They may well thank the government.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,206
    edited September 2022
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    It's interesting. You can be fit and have a good crack at so many sports but swimming seems to be in a world of its own. I rated and rate myself as pretty fit and still end up being one of those irritating people who has to stand up, goggles off, to take a breather at the end of each length. Whereas a mate of mine who was short(er) and fat(ter) than me and got out of breath easily was also a competitive swimmer and flew through the water like a thing that flies through the water and was super impressive.
    I dont think your problem was fitness or even "swim fitness" it was probably breathing wrongly if doing front crawl. I used to be the same ,never managing more than 4 lengths at a time of front crawl until I read how to breathe properly doing it - took a couple of sessions to correct my breathing but then literally i went from being able to do 4 lengths to 50 without stopping . Basically make sure you do all your breathing out UNDER the water so when you come up for breath you have the full time to breath in (hence get double the air in ) before i learnt how to breathe I spent half the time above the water expunging breath and so only had half the time to breath in
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Is this being said with pleasure, or as part of a discreet distancing?

    A massive moment for iealondon. They’ve been advocating these policies for years. They incubated Truss and Kwarteng during their early years as MPs. Britain is now their laboratory.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370

    Have a look at his later comments. You might be right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    Dividend and employee NI should probably be made identical. This budget feels like a kick in the teeth for scrupulous businesses mind.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Is this being said with pleasure, or as part of a discreet distancing?

    A massive moment for iealondon. They’ve been advocating these policies for years. They incubated Truss and Kwarteng during their early years as MPs. Britain is now their laboratory.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370

    Who voted to be a Guinea pig?
    Or Richard Gere’s gerbil?
    Remember Steve Bell's Scots guinea pigs at the time of the Poll Tax experiment? We know what came of that experiment ...
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,593
    edited September 2022

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    If you do make sure your training involves doing all 3 together. The first triathlon I did one I had done swimming, cycling and running training but always on their own. The transition from cycling to running was a killer and my thigh muscles just above the knees turned to jelly.
  • ..

  • Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    Perhaps if the war in Ukraine ends with Ukrainian victory, and Truss walks the streets of Kiev arm in arm with Zelensky, plus a 10 point poll leads, she might be tempted. Seems unlikely though. I think the 18 months of energy provision is the key indicator for May 2024 being the target date. Plus boundary changes will have kicked in.
    Changing the subject to Ukraine for a moment, I wonder if Putin is already factoring in another successful counteroffensive from Ukraine, and the mobilisation is being done with Crimea in mind.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,127
    edited September 2022
    ping said:

    Driver said:

    alex_ said:

    Could I just point out that the Govt haven’t remotely got an electoral mandate for all this.

    Except for an ~80 seat majority.
    It’s bait and switch.

    They played the working class like a violin.
    Ever since the Wheeler case, nobody should expect that any government will do what it promised.
  • MattW said:

    Catching up with the Krazy Kwarteng speech.

    Where does his first claim that UK has 2nd lowest debt:GDP in the G7 come from?

    For Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, it looks carefully selected and perhaps wrong.

    Apparently that is correct.

    https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/g7

    Japan 259%
    Italy 151%
    US 134%
    France 113%
    Canada 112%
    UK 95%
    Germany 69%

    That said, the deficits look quite different:

    US -15.49%
    Japan -8.95%
    UK -7.99%
    Italy -7.2%
    France -6.5%
    Canada -4.71%
    Germany -3.70%
  • ping said:

    £/$ 1.1099

    We've had enough of experts
    Did you mean exports?
  • Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    They won't turn. Well, not in that direction...
    Brave prediction. Lots of less politically obsessed people are going to be getting a reduction in tax. They may well thank the government.
    The idea this benefits the rich is naturally labours narrative but in truth this benefits most working people ad families
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,666

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Whatever else, all these changes are decisive & help Truss make the case that she is not just continuity Boris Johnson.

    I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.

    Is there ever a time when we shouldn't be targeting growth? The previous Conservative administration talked about targeting growth, and the one before that. And the one before that. And they all set up special economic zones too.
    I mean no one explicitly targets economic decline, but I think the previous Conservative govt (certainly George Osborne era) was quite clearly targeting reducing the deficit & cutting spending, regardless of the impact on growth. So they slashed capital spending (the purpose of which is to generate growth).
    You still had things like the 2015 Productivity Plan, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/productivity-plan-launched , under Osborne.
    Yes you're right they talked about it... maybe I'm wrong to draw a distinction here or not expressing myself well... but I feel like when Osborne talked about productivity... it was just words he didn't really believe. I certainly didn't see the action.

    Truss is clearly prepared to go for bold action. I should add that I think most of these policies are going to be bad news for the economy - but I think Truss believes that they will work...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650
    MattW said:

    Catching up with the Krazy Kwarteng speech.

    Where does his first claim that UK has 2nd lowest debt:GDP in the G7 come from?

    For Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, it looks carefully selected and perhaps wrong.

    I think only Germany is lower on the comparable figure - PSND-exBoE
  • Cyclefree said:

    So what are the odds of a snap General Election, if the polls turn?

    If.

    They won't turn. Well, not in that direction...
    Brave prediction. Lots of less politically obsessed people are going to be getting a reduction in tax. They may well thank the government.
    The idea this benefits the rich is naturally labours narrative but in truth this benefits most working people ad families
    Only if you think that tax cuts don't have to be paid for by cuts to services or higher taxes in the future. The tax cuts are skewed massively to the rich.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    It's interesting. You can be fit and have a good crack at so many sports but swimming seems to be in a world of its own. I rated and rate myself as pretty fit and still end up being one of those irritating people who has to stand up, goggles off, to take a breather at the end of each length. Whereas a mate of mine who was short(er) and fat(ter) than me and got out of breath easily was also a competitive swimmer and flew through the water like a thing that flies through the water and was super impressive.
    I dont think your problem was fitness or even "swim fitness" it was probably breathing wrongly if doing front crawl. I used to be the same ,never managing more than 4 lengths at a time of front crawl until I read how to breathe properly doing it - took a couple of sessions to correct my breathing but then literally i went from being able to do 4 lengths to 50 without stopping . Basically make sure you do all your breathing out UNDER the water so when you come up for breath you have the full time to breath in (hence get double the air in ) before i learnt how to breathe I spent half the time above the water expunging breath and so only had half the time to breath in
    Oh undoubtedly it was my breathing and I tried some variations but then I didn't pursue it enough to make the breakthrough that you made.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited September 2022

    Tax cuts for the rich, withholding benefits from the poor.

    Leveling up.

    If there is growth, do we have it in mind everybody gets their fair share of growth?

    No. That never happens. That’s the elephant in the room.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 555
    DavidL said:

    The question is whether the tax cuts can generate enough additional economic activity to offset the loss of revenue that they represent with new revenue from that activity. At the moment the UK economy is not expected to grow next year (the original OBR forecast is clearly out of date). If it grew 2% then that would be 2% x £2.2trn or roughly £44bn of additional activity. If the government takes its usual 40% or so of that this would amount to £17.6bn which would offset the cost of the packages announced today (energy excluded).

    Taking the optimistic point of view for the sake of argument, how quickly do the advocates of this policy expect the effects of tax cuts to turn up in growth figures? Is this a "full effect visible by six months" or "by 6mo you would see a difference but serious changes in behaviour take two years to show up in growth", or what?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,666
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    It's interesting. You can be fit and have a good crack at so many sports but swimming seems to be in a world of its own. I rated and rate myself as pretty fit and still end up being one of those irritating people who has to stand up, goggles off, to take a breather at the end of each length. Whereas a mate of mine who was short(er) and fat(ter) than me and got out of breath easily was also a competitive swimmer and flew through the water like a thing that flies through the water and was super impressive.
    Technique is everything I think with swimming.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Kwarteng has said: "Growing the economy creates growing tax revenues, which pay public services.
    Growing the economy creates growing tax revenues, which pay public services."

    How much growth is needed to make up for the £45 billion reduction in tax revenue? OK, this is my attempt at a back of an envelope calculation. Please do correct me! Let's say tax revenue is 30% of GDP, so to make up for £45 billion, you need the economy to grow by £45B/0.3 = £250 billion. UK GDP is £2.7 trillion, so growth of £250 billion would be 9¼%.

    The highest growth ever achieved since 1949 was 7.5% last year, with post-COVID bounce back. 6.5% was achieved in 1973 following Barber's dash for growth, which was followed by one of our worst recessions.

    We are not going to achieve 9¼% growth. These tax cuts will not pay for themselves. Public spending will have to be slashed.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,810

    Fishing said:

    5 year gilt yields going parabolic. Up 300bp in the last 6 months, up 200bp in the last month, up almost 100bp in the last week. Cable close to 1.11.

    That's yields in nominal terms. They have fallen in real terms, which matters much more.
    No they haven't. 5 year breakeven inflation is only about 70bp above where is was a year ago. Most of the rise in 5 year nominal yields comes from higher real yields.
    You're actually right. Real interest rates are only -4.6% now.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Is this government about to call an election? It does have a whiff of pre-election cheering up to it?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,593

    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm urrming and ahhing about planning to do a sprint triathlon in 2024. A 750m swim, a 20k bike, and a 5k run.

    I know I can run 5k easily (though not fast), and I can cycle 20k no probs. It's the swimming that lets me down. The most I've done for years is a few lengths (say 100m) whilst the little 'un's been in the pool. I'd also need a decent road bike, unlike my Apollo.

    All this talk about power meters and ideal RPMs flies merrily over me head...

    I'd say go for it... but sooner than 2024! Swimming is tricky to practice unless you live near the sea... I don't think doing lengths of the pool is quite the same.
    It's interesting. You can be fit and have a good crack at so many sports but swimming seems to be in a world of its own. I rated and rate myself as pretty fit and still end up being one of those irritating people who has to stand up, goggles off, to take a breather at the end of each length. Whereas a mate of mine who was short(er) and fat(ter) than me and got out of breath easily was also a competitive swimmer and flew through the water like a thing that flies through the water and was super impressive.
    I dont think your problem was fitness or even "swim fitness" it was probably breathing wrongly if doing front crawl. I used to be the same ,never managing more than 4 lengths at a time of front crawl until I read how to breathe properly doing it - took a couple of sessions to correct my breathing but then literally i went from being able to do 4 lengths to 50 without stopping . Basically make sure you do all your breathing out UNDER the water so when you come up for breath you have the full time to breath in (hence get double the air in ) before i learnt how to breathe I spent half the time above the water expunging breath and so only had half the time to breath in
    Quick tips on the swim breathing. Firstly make sure when you learn your breathing that you do it on alternate sides (I do once every 3 arm strokes) otherwise you may end up, like I did, with a trapped nerve.

    When you actually make your breaths it helps if you can keep the side of your mouth closest to the water closed and used the other half for breathing. In this way you don't have to turn your head so far which is more efficient as well as helping keep the water out of your mouth.

    If you are doing the swim leg in open water then it is helpful to practice "spotting". This is where you break your normal breathing routine to lift your head out straight in front of you to look where you are going. Obviously unnecessary in a pool but in open water if you don't do it you will end up going in the wrong direction!
  • DavidL said:

    This is the equivalent of the Lawson budget of 1987. Whether the results will be the same, well, who knows? Anyone who is confident about it really should be discounted.

    The question is whether the tax cuts can generate enough additional economic activity to offset the loss of revenue that they represent with new revenue from that activity. At the moment the UK economy is not expected to grow next year (the original OBR forecast is clearly out of date). If it grew 2% then that would be 2% x £2.2trn or roughly £44bn of additional activity. If the government takes its usual 40% or so of that this would amount to £17.6bn which would offset the cost of the packages announced today (energy excluded).

    Of course, if we don't get that 2% additional growth but continue to spend at the same rate things will get distinctly hairy. What this is is a rejection of the penny pinching attitude that has dominated UK politics and economics since at least 2010. It will change the nature of the debate quite radically and we may well find Labour presenting themselves as the "responsible" party. It will certainly shake things up big time.

    It is extraordinary and I agree with your comments

    It is a huge gamble with high stakes and I defy anyone to predict how this plays out and especially in GE 2024

    This morning the political debate has ratchet up many times and in the process buried Johnson and Sunak policies

    It is really fascinating and I would just caution those who have already written Truss off as there is no doubt she is a genuine opponent for Starmer after the days of Johnson

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,939
    Driver said:

    alex_ said:

    Could I just point out that the Govt haven’t remotely got an electoral mandate for all this.

    Except for an ~80 seat majority.
    There's an argument that it's a simple misunderstanding. 'Get Brexit done' should have been 'Get Brexits done'. This parliament is determined to explore all possible Brexits. We've had state-interventionist Lexit-Brexit, now we're getting rightwingthinktankwetdream-Brexit, next up will be softaseiderdown-Brexit, led by Bolesy after a by-election. Then, at the next election, we get to make a really informed choice. From the smoking wreckage.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022

    Kwarteng has said: "Growing the economy creates growing tax revenues, which pay public services.
    Growing the economy creates growing tax revenues, which pay public services."

    How much growth is needed to make up for the £45 billion reduction in tax revenue? OK, this is my attempt at a back of an envelope calculation. Please do correct me! Let's say tax revenue is 30% of GDP, so to make up for £45 billion, you need the economy to grow by £45B/0.3 = £250 billion. UK GDP is £2.7 trillion, so growth of £250 billion would be 9¼%.

    The highest growth ever achieved since 1949 was 7.5% last year, with post-COVID bounce back. 6.5% was achieved in 1973 following Barber's dash for growth, which was followed by one of our worst recessions.

    We are not going to achieve 9¼% growth. These tax cuts will not pay for themselves. Public spending will have to be slashed.

    That’s part 2 of their strategy.

    Truss and Kwarteng are two of the most cynical people ever to grace British politics.

    They don’t have a mandate for any of this shit.
  • pm215 said:

    DavidL said:

    The question is whether the tax cuts can generate enough additional economic activity to offset the loss of revenue that they represent with new revenue from that activity. At the moment the UK economy is not expected to grow next year (the original OBR forecast is clearly out of date). If it grew 2% then that would be 2% x £2.2trn or roughly £44bn of additional activity. If the government takes its usual 40% or so of that this would amount to £17.6bn which would offset the cost of the packages announced today (energy excluded).

    Taking the optimistic point of view for the sake of argument, how quickly do the advocates of this policy expect the effects of tax cuts to turn up in growth figures? Is this a "full effect visible by six months" or "by 6mo you would see a difference but serious changes in behaviour take two years to show up in growth", or what?
    I reckon the tax cut for the 1% will generate a temporary boost to income tax receipts, because people will expect Labour to win the next election and put the top rate up again in a couple of years. Tories will claim this as the Laffer curve in action but really it will just be income brought forward from future years, basically the rich getting their money out of the economy while it is most advantageous. The long run impact on the public finances will be negative.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022

    Tax cuts for the rich, withholding benefits from the poor.

    Leveling up.

    Indeed. They really have no idea what they're doing with people's impending destitution combining with impending symbolic policies like boosting bankers' bonuses.

    It reminds me of the situation building at the end of Thatcher's administration in the shadow of the Poll Tax. An increasingly arrogant, high-handed and out-of-touch administration with people's daily needs is definitely going to feel the blowback, as it should expect. Britain is not Saudi Arabia or Singapore.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073

    ..

    Just as well we don't have a problem with inflation at the moment.
This discussion has been closed.