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Starmer still strong betting favourite for post-election PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
  • AlistairM said:

    Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

    EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

    This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.
    Its a huge saving compared to the figures you were personally bandying about just a few weeks ago.

    Expectations management was set by constantly talking about £3.5k to £5k bills.
    Great! The price hasn't gone to the moon! But £5k bills was like telling people they would be a £squillion - unpayable. For an awful lot of people, the capped doubling of prices is STILL unpayable.

    You expect people to thank the government for doubling their energy bills?
    That's why we need to have campaigns around how people can reduce their energy use. There will be very few cases where it will not be possible to find some reductions.
    Absolutlely. The incentives are one thing, but people also need to know the sensible responses to those incentives. Otherwise you get people doing things like this;
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-61478106

    Truro Food Bank manager Simon Fann said: "[We have had] reports of children having upset stomachs, or, in worst cases, food poisoning because some parents are turning their fridges and freezers off overnight."

    Now, it's to my professional shame that there are people out there who don't know the best things to do, because my colleages and I really did our best. But as with Covid (it's a germ, do the things we do to stop germs spreading), it's naive to think that public information is unnecessary.

    Basically- heat is the thing. Turn the thermostat down, only heat rooms you are using, put on a jumper on.
    Upset stomachs and even food poisoning might also be due to supermarkets removing "use by" and "best before" dates from food.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited September 2022
    These people are not serious about government.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    Sandpit said:

    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

    Don’t overseas visitors already have VAT free shopping? I’m sure I used to see signs about it in the high-end shops round here.
    Rishi scrapped it a couple of years ago, fearing that EU visitors would cost the Treasury too much.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/09/14/retailers-criticise-treasury-over-move-to-scrap-vat-free-shoppin/
    It won't. People intending to buy things like expensive watches have a choice where to buy them if they also travel. May as well take their dollah rather than somewhere else.
    Yep! Maybe I’ll buy a watch in London this Christmas.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited September 2022
    For a long time there has been a school of thought that holds that lowering the tax rate will increase the tax take.

    I am very interested to be part of a real life experiment to see if this is indeed the case.
  • SNP lady just said something bonkers I had to sense-check. And its true.

    We have had 7 chancellors in 6 years. Bonkers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    edited September 2022
    When is this speech starting? :smile:

    Will it be an hour earlier or later next time if Perma-BST gets implemented?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    Is this meant to get votes back to the Tories?
  • Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.
    If you take it upon yourself to decide which charities to donate to rather than trusting the government with it, then in your actions you are vindicating Kwarteng's approach of letting people spend more of their own money.

    No, I'm not - I am mitigating some of the effects of the massive cuts in public spending that we will see downstream as a result of today's announcements. What it won't do is deliver a better NHS or better schools or better infrastructure.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    Oh dear oh dear. Tory Chair of the Treasury Select Committee tears Kwarteng a new one because he hasn't run any of these numbers through the OBR.

    EDIT - no, the OBR have actually done the work. And he is refusing to release it.

    That's because the OBR report is so damning it's unrealisable.

    I seriously expect the IR35 change by itself to lead to a £xbn drop in Employer NI tax take - and I'm working out if it's worth starting an accountancy firm for personal service companies....
  • IR35 gone - super!
  • Labour are now put in the position where they have to promise to increase taxes at the next election. That's the political trap the Tories have created for them. The deficit created by this tax-cutting is so large that reversing some of these tax cuts, and/or putting up other taxes, is the only credible alternative to a massive round of public spending cuts.

    I think it's shockingly reckless by the government - if you want to cut taxes in this way you really need to cut spending to be able to afford to do so - but if we make it to the election without calling in the IMF I can see how the politics can work for Truss and Kwarteng.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650
    TOPPING said:

    For a long time there has been a school of thought that lowering the tax rate will increase the tax take.

    I am very interested to be part of a real life experiment to see if this is indeed the case.

    Yes, this is a real life experiment of that theory. What's interesting is that bonus plans aren't locked in for another month and the uncapped bonus will undoubtedly increase bonus payments for very many people and may result in overall tax take going up quite significantly from the sector even with the top rate of tax coming down from 47% to 42%.
  • ping said:

    These people are not serious about government.

    Almost by definition, they are not.

    Remember Ron Swanson from Parks and Recreation? OK, he was a comedy caricature of a libertarian. He didn't like government, but at some level he was mature enough to do things responsibly. Mostly.

    What we have now is people who don't believe in government and so are treating it as a joke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    If you're not in an enterprise zone, then the effects on your business are going to be negative.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Pulpstar said:

    Sherbourne result is very poor for Labour.

    I reckon the Tories might gain Cov NW against the general tide next GE...

    Coventry Lab Council get everything they deserve. Anti workers tosspots
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    IR35 gone - super!

    Nope IR35 is back to where it was prior to 2017....

    Which actually means anyone and everyone should be using a PSC because the old rules made it impossible for HMRC to catch people in any real number...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Cost of Govt borrowing up to 3.9% after this


    Was 0.5% 18 month ago
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,593

    I think this is an utter fuck up. Tories know they’ll lose the next election and just spaffing whatever random policy to shore up the base

    If it does all go to shit then the Tories will do to Labour what Labour have always previously done to the Tories. Leave office with the country in a mess. It will give a serious challenge to Labour as to what they can do to fix it. Just taxing the rich (their normal approach) would not work and they'd likely have to make cuts.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    The Tory party has committed suicide.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 555
    TOPPING said:

    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?

    In the traditional 3-at-front 6-at-back type gear setup, you aren't supposed to use them all -- combinations like outermost front with innermost rear or innermost front with outermost rear aren't good for the chain. For the rest, it depends on the terrain, but if you're anywhere hilly you will likely be wanting both the lowest and the highest gear you've got.
  • .
    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
  • Driver said:

    Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.

    Excellent - a shift from the State to the third sector.
    The third sector (including cooperatives and membership bodies as well as charities) needs to be a lot bigger anyway
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1573241125418455040

    The Government will be borrowing money every year going forward....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Exactly this. Truss and Kwarteng are running a giant experiment, a test of the ideas of Reynolds, Laffer, Mundell et al with 67m participants. Seen this way, the initial popularity of those ideas don't matter: either the ideas work, or Truss and her allies are toast anyway. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1573238591496634370
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Government short term borrowing costs went up from 3.3% to 3.9% in the space of Kwarteng's speech.
  • Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.
    If you take it upon yourself to decide which charities to donate to rather than trusting the government with it, then in your actions you are vindicating Kwarteng's approach of letting people spend more of their own money.

    No, I'm not - I am mitigating some of the effects of the massive cuts in public spending that we will see downstream as a result of today's announcements. What it won't do is deliver a better NHS or better schools or better infrastructure.
    If your primary concern is the effect on public spending then the only non-hypocritical action would be to give the money to HMRC and encourage others to do the same.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Chris said:

    The Tory party has committed suicide.

    SKS is a lucky General indeed
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (21-22 Sep)

    Con: 32% (no change from 11-12 Sep)
    Lab: 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem: 9% (-1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 3% (+1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/23/voting-intention-con-32-lab-40-21-22-sep-2022 https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1573241877868183552/photo/1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650
    Nigelb said:

    If you're not in an enterprise zone, then the effects on your business are going to be negative.

    History hasn't shown existing business to suffer from enterprise zones, they tend to do better as the nearby zone brings lots of jobs and spending power.
  • novanova Posts: 472
    Driver said:

    Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.

    Excellent - a shift from the State to the third sector.
    I do get the feeling that some Tories miss the days of throwing a few pennies out to the peasants waiting at their gates.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    £45 billion of tax cuts. This is biggest tax cutting event since 1972. Barber's "dash for growth" then ended in disaster. That Budget is now known as the worst of modern times. Genuinely, I hope this one works very much better.
    https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1573238871705677824
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    Everyone earning under the additional rate with a mortgage probably going to vote Labour at the next GE tbh.
  • Get those horrible universal credit people into jobs - or we will cut it. Hmm

    The equivalent of mobilisation after the special fiscal operation is a clusterfcuk with bells on.
  • Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.
    If you take it upon yourself to decide which charities to donate to rather than trusting the government with it, then in your actions you are vindicating Kwarteng's approach of letting people spend more of their own money.

    No, I'm not - I am mitigating some of the effects of the massive cuts in public spending that we will see downstream as a result of today's announcements. What it won't do is deliver a better NHS or better schools or better infrastructure.
    If your primary concern is the effect on public spending then the only non-hypocritical action would be to give the money to HMRC and encourage others to do the same.
    If the government want my money they can tax me. If they would rather make me more wealthy while poor kids go cold and hungry and the NHS falls to bits that is a reflection on their values, not mine.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors - I’m looking forward to my family Christmas trip already!

    How does this work ?

    Do you need to wave an airline ticket in front of the cashier ?
    The way it used to work, is that you fill in a form at the retailer, and drop the form into a post box airside at the airport as you leave. The refund is provided a few days later by the retailer, to the card they have on file. If you want a cash refund, join a very long queue and hope your plane is delayed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    anyway great to see some recognition of the REAL victims of this economy, ie anyone earning over £150k, first time buyers who can afford a £425k flat, and bankers who need a bigger bonus.
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1573241126378676226
  • Oh dear oh dear oh dear. 2nd Tory intervention says 'as city minister bankers weren't bothered about bonuses and the markets are very worried about inflation which this makes problematic'

    I am sure we will get fawning lickspittle interventions from 2019 mince, but its clear the PM and her cabinet aren't carrying the party with them. As also reported from the briefing given to the '22 immediately before this.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    edited September 2022
    Only 600,000 people pay the highest rate of tax. Surprising.

    What's the point? Certainly not after votes
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,506
    Could I just point out that the Govt haven’t remotely got an electoral mandate for all this.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Driver said:

    Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.

    Excellent - a shift from the State to the third sector.
    You really think that's going to be a 1:1 shift ?
    It won't be a fraction of that.

    That's emblematic of the real problem with this non-budget. The money being thrown at growth will be (IMO) extremely inefficient in achieving its aim.
    Which will further fuck the country's finances.
  • Ed Conwy of Sky has just said the markets are not panicking and that is good news
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    It’s quite a statement of political intent to remove the top rate of income tax and at the same time do nothing for those on benefits, apart from making benefit sanctions more likely. Will be genuinely fascinating to see how - if? - red wall Tories try to sell this to locals.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1573242231946895360
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    Pulpstar said:

    Everyone earning under the additional rate with a mortgage probably going to vote Labour at the next GE tbh.

    Yup. Bang on
  • Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.
    If you take it upon yourself to decide which charities to donate to rather than trusting the government with it, then in your actions you are vindicating Kwarteng's approach of letting people spend more of their own money.

    No, I'm not - I am mitigating some of the effects of the massive cuts in public spending that we will see downstream as a result of today's announcements. What it won't do is deliver a better NHS or better schools or better infrastructure.
    If your primary concern is the effect on public spending then the only non-hypocritical action would be to give the money to HMRC and encourage others to do the same.

    A single donation to HMRC changes nothing. As I say, you go off in search of perceived personal hypocrisies if you want. I will just remain unconvinced that making me or Jacob Rees Mogg even wealthier is going to make this a better country.

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    alex_ said:

    Could I just point out that the Govt haven’t remotely got an electoral mandate for all this.

    And this. No one voted for some sort of bizarre social experiment on tax and borrowing
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,719
    Well, the economy was completely stuffed anyway. So, why not?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Personal Allowances not raised so 1p tax cut is a bit pathetic
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Cost of Govt borrowing up to 3.9% after this

    Was 0.5% 18 month ago

    It was 3.3% earlier this morning.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,876
    TOPPING said:

    For a long time there has been a school of thought that holds that lowering the tax rate will increase the tax take.

    I am very interested to be part of a real life experiment to see if this is indeed the case.

    Even with these tax cuts the UK will still be a relatively highly taxed economy. I don't know what the right cuts are but I'm sure that paying even more tax would not be the answer. So I'm broadly sympathetic to the direction even if I might disagree with the precise choices.

    Fundamentally the government are correct that growth matters more than arguing over where to slice the pie.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    edited September 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    And that is what every social worker and lorry driver agency will be doing come April 5th 2023.

    Because it's the easiest and cheapest way of maximising pay and removes whole areas of pain regarding things such as Holiday Pay (which is now a grade A disaster following the recent Bazel supreme court judgement)..

    The other thing worth pointing out is that under the old rules HMRC can't actually handle that many IR35 as everyone needs to be done individually. The whole point of the 2017/21 IR35 was to allow HMRC to take 1 case and extrapolate it to the other 5000 contractors working at that end client.
  • Scott_xP said:

    It’s quite a statement of political intent to remove the top rate of income tax and at the same time do nothing for those on benefits, apart from making benefit sanctions more likely. Will be genuinely fascinating to see how - if? - red wall Tories try to sell this to locals.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1573242231946895360

    red wall tory voters equally not keen on benefits (benefit recievers tend to not vote or vote labour still) nor bankers. So its a bit neutral in this respect - I think generally it signals ambition and intent and a clear break from statism conservatism - Not every potential tory voter will agree about all the measures but may agree with the overall ambition of less state taxation
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    @AlastairMeeks

    I never thought I'd see MMT implemented by a Conservative government.
  • MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    Employers NI effectively binned in the enterprise zones. Looks like step one of an attempt to abolish Employers NI (and not replace the revenue).

    This can only be paid for by means-testing the state pension, or reducing funding on the NHS.

    It's the biggest political change in the country since the privatisations of the 1980s. Huge.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    pm215 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?

    In the traditional 3-at-front 6-at-back type gear setup, you aren't supposed to use them all -- combinations like outermost front with innermost rear or innermost front with outermost rear aren't good for the chain. For the rest, it depends on the terrain, but if you're anywhere hilly you will likely be wanting both the lowest and the highest gear you've got.
    So are the interim gears just there to space out those ones you describe? ie from an engineering perspective there needs to be something there?
  • Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.
    If you take it upon yourself to decide which charities to donate to rather than trusting the government with it, then in your actions you are vindicating Kwarteng's approach of letting people spend more of their own money.

    No, I'm not - I am mitigating some of the effects of the massive cuts in public spending that we will see downstream as a result of today's announcements. What it won't do is deliver a better NHS or better schools or better infrastructure.
    If your primary concern is the effect on public spending then the only non-hypocritical action would be to give the money to HMRC and encourage others to do the same.
    If the government want my money they can tax me. If they would rather make me more wealthy while poor kids go cold and hungry and the NHS falls to bits that is a reflection on their values, not mine.
    They want you to spend your money, which will be taxed. If you'd rather just count your wealth, that's a reflection on your values, not theirs.
  • Some interesting road and rail upgrades in there. On rail, a commitment to East-West Rail (which ?Shapps? threatened), and Midland Main Line electrification from near Corby to Sheffield.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Billions and billions and billions and billions of pounds of additional borrowing to make rich people richer.

    Presumably you'll donate your share straight back to HMRC?

    I will increase my charitable contributions. Many others will bank the cash. You can spend hours searching for personal hypocrisies if you like, but the simple fact is that this government is massively increasing borrowing so that rich people can have more money. You may think that will make this a better country. I am sceptical.
    If you take it upon yourself to decide which charities to donate to rather than trusting the government with it, then in your actions you are vindicating Kwarteng's approach of letting people spend more of their own money.

    No, I'm not - I am mitigating some of the effects of the massive cuts in public spending that we will see downstream as a result of today's announcements. What it won't do is deliver a better NHS or better schools or better infrastructure.
    If your primary concern is the effect on public spending then the only non-hypocritical action would be to give the money to HMRC and encourage others to do the same.
    Rhetorical whataboutery over an individual's decisions is a pretty damn pathetic defence of irresponsible government policy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650
    These tax cuts are reminiscent of the Trump tax cuts, they got the US economy growing but ordinary people felt none of the benefits of that growth.

    I fear that in order to chase a higher headline rate the Tories have forgotten that people in the middle need to feel as though they are better off than they were last year. I'm not sure that someone earning over £150k counts as middle or a banker now able to get a 10x multiple bonus does either.
  • Ed Conwy of Sky has just said the markets are not panicking and that is good news

    That's the GOOD news?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    It got the the point where a consultant temp couldn’t even claim for their own hotel, transport and subsistence costs, making it almost impossible for the genuinely self-employed white-collar consultants to earn a living.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    Sandpit said:


    Yep! Maybe I’ll buy a watch in London this Christmas.

    Panerai or GTFO.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Personal Allowances not raised so 1p tax cut is a bit pathetic

    Tax cuts for the rich; fiscal drag for the not so rich.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    alex_ said:

    Could I just point out that the Govt haven’t remotely got an electoral mandate for all this.

    Yep.

    The democratic deficit, right now, is immense.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    It’s quite a statement of political intent to remove the top rate of income tax and at the same time do nothing for those on benefits, apart from making benefit sanctions more likely. Will be genuinely fascinating to see how - if? - red wall Tories try to sell this to locals.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1573242231946895360

    Shows why Labour lost the red wall, the establishment fantasy that the red wall is a giant Job Centre stuffed with chippy flat cappers grovelling about in the mud.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    If you're not in an enterprise zone, then the effects on your business are going to be negative.

    History hasn't shown existing business to suffer from enterprise zones, they tend to do better as the nearby zone brings lots of jobs and spending power.
    I would guess that will depend on the scale of this program.
    I'm sceptical; we'll see.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Good morning fiscal Conservatives
  • MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    i think merging Ni with IT is difficult given that pensions are taxed - Relief on pension savings is only on income tax so if you start taxing pension income with what is effectively NI through a higher merged rate it would be unfair
  • MaxPB said:

    Did he really cut the additional rate? What about allowance withdrawal at £100k?

    Not going to lie, this statement has made me personally much better off, which doesn't sit right when we see what's happening in the country.

    Do your bit and SPEND some. Few extra UK weekend breaks?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    Bring back the relative (pre- 2016) stability of the Cameron years. Or even Sunak tbh
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    It got the the point where a consultant temp couldn’t even claim for their own hotel, transport and subsistence costs, making it almost impossible for the genuinely self-employed white-collar consultants to earn a living.
    A genuine consultant would have multiple clients and exist outside IR35, a "consultant" working 5 days a week for the same client should pay the proper rate of tax.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    pm215 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?

    In the traditional 3-at-front 6-at-back type gear setup, you aren't supposed to use them all -- combinations like outermost front with innermost rear or innermost front with outermost rear aren't good for the chain. For the rest, it depends on the terrain, but if you're anywhere hilly you will likely be wanting both the lowest and the highest gear you've got.
    The Big-Big position has now be rehabilitated by Tony Martin and other TT specialists. It's an efficiency and therefore power gain because Big-Big minimises the articulation of each chain link and frictional drivetrain losses.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,232
    MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    Quite.

    IR35 has been a huge mess for HMRC. The original intent was sound, but the implementation was a disaster.

    Fixing tax rates so there’s no tax benefit from ltd company employment is the only real answer. The problem of course is that this means putting dividend and / or corporation tax rates up & that’s anathema to the capital holding classes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486

    Cost of Govt borrowing up to 3.9% after this


    Was 0.5% 18 month ago

    As a Tory, what’s your view of Kwazi’s package?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    It got the the point where a consultant temp couldn’t even claim for their own hotel, transport and subsistence costs, making it almost impossible for the genuinely self-employed white-collar consultants to earn a living.
    A genuine consultant would have multiple clients and exist outside IR35, a "consultant" working 5 days a week for the same client should pay the proper rate of tax.
    If he’s working a couple of months for one client, then a couple of months for the next one? That’s how most work, including me when I was a consultant, and they’re being screwed in the UK.

    Even if they work several months for one company, they’re taking business risk and have no holiday or benefits of employment.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,145
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    I also don't see the logic of binning IR35. It existed to ensure people couldn't dodge national insurance, the solution surely has got to be merging NI and income tax rates in a revenue neutral way.

    It got the the point where a consultant temp couldn’t even claim for their own hotel, transport and subsistence costs, making it almost impossible for the genuinely self-employed white-collar consultants to earn a living.
    The original, real, reasons that IR35 was introduced was

    1) lobbying by the big consultancies - who were being undercut by customers buying in individual contractors and
    2) by the bizarre way that many areas of government, local and central, din't ban leaving your job on a Friday and returning as a contractor on a Monday.

    The later occurred very early n the contractor rush (pre 2000s) in th private sector, but was quickly eliminated by putting a clause in employment contracts which banned the practise.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,231
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax or Wealth Taxes or Property Taxes or something else equitable instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    For a long time there has been a school of thought that lowering the tax rate will increase the tax take.

    I am very interested to be part of a real life experiment to see if this is indeed the case.

    Yes, this is a real life experiment of that theory. What's interesting is that bonus plans aren't locked in for another month and the uncapped bonus will undoubtedly increase bonus payments for very many people and may result in overall tax take going up quite significantly from the sector even with the top rate of tax coming down from 47% to 42%.
    What is the tax rate on large bonuses now?

    The same as the remaining top rate of income tax?
  • MaxPB said:

    These tax cuts are reminiscent of the Trump tax cuts, they got the US economy growing but ordinary people felt none of the benefits of that growth.

    I fear that in order to chase a higher headline rate the Tories have forgotten that people in the middle need to feel as though they are better off than they were last year. I'm not sure that someone earning over £150k counts as middle or a banker now able to get a 10x multiple bonus does either.

    £150k puts you in the top 2% of the earnings distribution so no it doesn't count as middle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...

    Armée de l'air et de l'espace has ASMP-A delivered by Rafale F3.
    Ah there you are. I have a question. As I was out on my Apollo Highway (or is it Highway Apollo) this morning I pondered the 18 gears. I use three at most.

    When you are proper bicycling do people use each of those for 18 different types of terrain?
    The number of gears isn't that relevant as there is some overlap in the ratios - Shimano 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 has 12x2 so 24 distinct gears but more importantly has a 401% total gear range.

    Cyclists generally produce their best power in a very narrow rpm band - for me it's 92-96rpm so to maximise your peformance you always want to be in that rpm band. Selecting a gear that gets you into that rpm range so you "Dance like Lance" is very important. A 401% range means you can be in that zone over a very wide range of road speeds.

    I run 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐜𝐞 in Full Syncro because my left wrist is fucked from multiple motorbike accidents so that means my 24 speed 12x2 is operated as a virtual 14x1 but, and this is the crucial point, I still have the full 401% gear range.

    In summary, find your peak power zone cadence and always use the gear that keeps you spinning it. If you do that then you will be using a very wide selection of your available gears.
    Thanks. So no point slogging up the hill in a difficult gear when it sounds as though you want an easier one to keep the motion and aerobic energy going?
  • Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (21-22 Sep)

    Con: 32% (no change from 11-12 Sep)
    Lab: 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem: 9% (-1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 3% (+1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738
    I'm genuinely surprised that he is removing the 45% tax rate.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Reeves quoting Biden like a kid who overheard their Dad say something to a bloke in the park and thinks it must be dynamite
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    rkrkrk said:

    Whatever else, all these changes are decisive & help Truss make the case that she is not just continuity Boris Johnson.

    I also feel enthused that clearly there is a mood to shake things up, and agree that UK should be targeting higher economic growth.

    Is there ever a time when we shouldn't be targeting growth? The previous Conservative administration talked about targeting growth, and the one before that. And the one before that. And they all set up special economic zones too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,650
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    For a long time there has been a school of thought that lowering the tax rate will increase the tax take.

    I am very interested to be part of a real life experiment to see if this is indeed the case.

    Yes, this is a real life experiment of that theory. What's interesting is that bonus plans aren't locked in for another month and the uncapped bonus will undoubtedly increase bonus payments for very many people and may result in overall tax take going up quite significantly from the sector even with the top rate of tax coming down from 47% to 42%.
    What is the tax rate on large bonuses now?

    The same as the remaining top rate of income tax?
    42%, top rate of tax at 40% plus 2% NI.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    eek said:

    In other news - every social care temp worker and lorry driver will return to using a limited company within weeks. The IR35 changes are going to decimate Employer NI tax take...

    Good.

    Makes it cheaper to abolish that heinous tax rather than coming up with ever more convulted rules to protect it!
    But that doesn't make sense because it isn't being abolished, all that's happened is reopening a tax loophole where some people will avoid paying it. I could now set myself up as a personal service company and take dividends and pay thousands less per year in tax than someone doing an identical job for the same cost of employment.
    Then Parliament should take the next step and abolish or further cut NI and put it taxation on Income Tax instead.

    Yes it's wrong that someone earning one amount pays more than someone else earning a similar amount from different employment, but it's equally completely wrong that someone earning that amount from paid employment pays more tax than someone earning the same amount from non employment means like letting homes.

    IR35 didn't solve the problem, it just raised more revenue for the Exchequer. The problem is NI, abolish it.
    Yes but that's not what's happening, binning IR35 isn't a precursor to binning employers NI or merging NI and income tax. It's just reopening a tax loophole that was closed for good reason.
    And boy is it going to be abused now we know HMRC can't actually handle that many old school IR35 investigations...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    Good to see the back of IR35, the latest incarnation of which put the onus on clients to decide whether a supplier was inside or outside its scope.

    Also hoping to kiss goodbye to GMT, although happy for the Scots to retain it should they wish to.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep! Maybe I’ll buy a watch in London this Christmas.

    Panerai or GTFO.
    I assume Panerais were issued to the manned torpedo suicide jockeys?


  • Presumably there isn't a parliamentary vote on a non-budget.

    If there was, surely Johnson and Sunak would have to vote against this reversal of their policies?
  • ping said:

    alex_ said:

    Could I just point out that the Govt haven’t remotely got an electoral mandate for all this.

    Yep.

    The democratic deficit, right now, is immense.

    We're a loooong way down the rabbit hole. On paper this is the 2019 get Brexit done government with that mandate. In practice we are on the 2nd PM and 4th (yes, 4th!) Chancellor doing a massive u-turn on the economic policies in that manifesto who are trying to claim they are a new government.

    Constitutionally none of this is a problem. People vote for MPs not a party or a government. So the MPs once elected can do whatever they like. But this isn't enough - the great failing of the 2017 government was that it was seen to be acting against what people believed they voted for.

    So this government needs to be very very careful. The "this isn't what I voted for" genie is out of the bottle. Whilst Brexit was a uniquely divisive issue, this special budget operation is so massive that there are a spread of areas where it can hit people with "what the fuck is this, when did I vote for this?"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,344
    edited September 2022

    Good to see the back of IR35, the latest incarnation of which put the onus on clients to decide whether a supplier was inside or outside its scope.

    That's probably the reason it was done. (I.e. to remove an administrative burden from business.)
This discussion has been closed.