@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Pour yourself a drink and chill pal. You're allowing the darkest possible outcomes to dominate your thinking.
I doubt it's anywhere near as bleak as you suggest, nor is it as positive as some have suggested.
Ok, so you tell me how you see the next 9 months playing out. Now Putin has gone for mobilization?
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Far better to take unpopular but important decisions now, govern well, and leave popular decisions until closer to election day.
Truss is honouring her commitments, reversing the NI tax and doing what she believes in. Good for her, that's what PMs are supposed to do, not vapidly chase every headline or opinion poll.
Is she honouring her commitment about local consent for fracking, Bart?
I don't know how she's intending to measure local support, do you? Has that been said?
Planning permission I assume, can't think how else it would work
I don't know either, but that would be honouring her commitment wouldn't it, if normal planning permission processes are followed?
Though NIMBYs and protest/lobby groups shouldn't be allowed to have a unilateral veto.
Seems reasonable for important national infrastructure to be granted NSIP status, that is normal procedures being followed is it not?
Give local people some money for it being done, and I'm sure some there will support it, even if others don't, and the commitment is honoured. The pledge was for local support, not local consent or permission.
If its not viable then what's the point in banning it? Just have it legal, but nobody doing it as its not viable.
There's a logic to banning it given the potential damage to buildings due to minor earthquakes.
I appreciate there are two schools of thought on that one but why risk it since it's going to be uneconomical to extract the gas anyway?
I can sympathise a little with the "why ban it" argument, but there are two substantial problems. 1. The proposal isn't to "unban" fracking, its to place it at the heart of our emergency energy policy. As fracking will not do what it has been billed as doing, that screws up our energy policy which opens the door to the room of pain regarding future energy prices 2. The purpose of government is to legislate on areas where national interest decisions need to be made. Here we have something which is wildly unpopular, creates environmental messes AND doesn't produce the gas needed. So a ban seems reasonable on multiple fronts.
Again again, imposing this over the wishes of voters to screw up their environment on a project that fails is how you lose seats...
1. Where's your source for that assertion? I have seen nothing about this being 'at the heart' of our energy policy.
2. There are two existing Cuadrilla wells in Lancashire that are viable. To cement those up (as there have been strong pushes to do) during a winter energy crisis, would be perverse in the extreme, would it not?
Switch them on, and see what can be got. If the Government is sensible, it will offer fracking licenses on the basis of all gas being sold domestically at below market rates (better than not being allowed to frack at all). Will it be enough to power a village? A small town? A big town? Who knows - it all helps.
PB has been warned of a forthcoming tidal wave of poverty and starvation, but still many of us oppose opening this avenue of supply, for the most spurious of reasons. So they obviously don't give that much of a crap about the shivering poor.
Andrew Strauss' review is off to a magnificent start with four county chairmen already saying they will vote against just six hours after publication.
The panel might have got away with their truly insane idea for the championship, because it will only upset supporters and nobody cares about them. But there is no way on earth the counties are going to accept a cut in the number of matches in the Blast. It earns them too much money.
It may be of course the ECB will ditch that as a sweetener for the rest. But that then wrecks their aim of reduced cricket.
panel? Is this just the thoughts of the one overrated man, or is his name proxy for a committee? Whatever good you could imagine a reform of the Domestic Cricket structure could bring, Strauss seemed to plump for the opposite option?
And it’s got to be done this way because England lost 4.0 in Australia? Throughout history of cricket, tours down under have been a challenge, reducing number of domestic red ball cricket is hardly going to change it being a challenge, especially when you add to the challenge by taking the wrong players and making embarrassing decisions at tosses. It’s laughable in their faces they are trying to use recent loss down under to sell this reform.
Let’s start by dealing with the elephant in the room - the hundred is the cuckoo in the domestic summer now - absolutely hated by true cricket fans - county’s bemoan their star players missing whilst they are trying to compete in a proper cricket competition, 50 over cup this season, even more laughable in Andy Strauss face he wants county sides to lose their players to hundred whilst trying to win important 4 day county championship games? He’s bonkers.
I propose two things - kill the hundred, or play it under roofed stadiums in October.
Secondly, use weekdays for county championship and weekends for limited overs so no county loses stars for competitions they want to compete in or important money from reduced fixtures.
Betting Post. Straussy needs 12 counties to back this? He will be luck to get 2 let alone another 10.
Hundred under roofed stadiums in October is a brilliant idea. Can such things exist?
Word yesterday was that the shambles which is Odsal in Bradford is looking to be made into a 35 000 seater indoor arena. Bit cheaper to do when you only need a roof on it. It is a massive hole already.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Total bollocks. There’s 40m Ukranians, and they have almost unlimited supply lines so long as the west keeps the support coming. A weak Putin trying something stupid, will be met with a very hard, but likely conventional, response.
If Putin drops a nuke, you think we would escalate in response?
It’s an idea, I suppose
I think the US said that if they used one they would sink the Black Sea fleet in response.
How well will 300k raw recruits really fight? And how fast can they train and be deployed? And it what volume at once?
They probably know which end of the AK-47 is which. Not very fast, they don’t have a lot of officers spare right now. Not very many, unless they really do want to use them as expendable cannon fodder.
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Far better to take unpopular but important decisions now, govern well, and leave popular decisions until closer to election day.
Truss is honouring her commitments, reversing the NI tax and doing what she believes in. Good for her, that's what PMs are supposed to do, not vapidly chase every headline or opinion poll.
Is she honouring her commitment about local consent for fracking, Bart?
I don't know how she's intending to measure local support, do you? Has that been said?
Planning permission I assume, can't think how else it would work
I don't know either, but that would be honouring her commitment wouldn't it, if normal planning permission processes are followed?
Though NIMBYs and protest/lobby groups shouldn't be allowed to have a unilateral veto.
Seems reasonable for important national infrastructure to be granted NSIP status, that is normal procedures being followed is it not?
Give local people some money for it being done, and I'm sure some there will support it, even if others don't, and the commitment is honoured. The pledge was for local support, not local consent or permission.
If its not viable then what's the point in banning it? Just have it legal, but nobody doing it as its not viable.
There's a logic to banning it given the potential damage to buildings due to minor earthquakes.
I appreciate there are two schools of thought on that one but why risk it since it's going to be uneconomical to extract the gas anyway?
I can sympathise a little with the "why ban it" argument, but there are two substantial problems. 1. The proposal isn't to "unban" fracking, its to place it at the heart of our emergency energy policy. As fracking will not do what it has been billed as doing, that screws up our energy policy which opens the door to the room of pain regarding future energy prices 2. The purpose of government is to legislate on areas where national interest decisions need to be made. Here we have something which is wildly unpopular, creates environmental messes AND doesn't produce the gas needed. So a ban seems reasonable on multiple fronts.
Again again, imposing this over the wishes of voters to screw up their environment on a project that fails is how you lose seats...
Hmm. I disagree with that.
I think the fracking proposal (which will make minimal difference anyway) is like one of those flares chucked out of a Russian helicopter to distract the missiles, or a bone thrown 20m away so all the mad dogs go chasing it.
Meanwhile La Truss is getting on with core stuff whilst the maddos and saddos from all sides have a squabble over an irrelevance, and keep themselves out of the way.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Pour yourself a drink and chill pal. You're allowing the darkest possible outcomes to dominate your thinking.
I doubt it's anywhere near as bleak as you suggest, nor is it as positive as some have suggested.
Ok, so you tell me how you see the next 9 months playing out. Now Putin has gone for mobilization?
As I mused on this yesterday, mobilised them for what? They don't have heavy weapons. Or likely even light weapons. They will be poorly trained with worse morale. So I think their function is to be reverse human shields:
Referenda says 98% of occupied territories want to be Russia Russia floods said territories with draftees When Ukraine inevitably kills draftees thats WAR that is, inside Russia with NATO weapons killing Russians.
So when you talk about mobilisation it isn't to militarily win the war - that seems very unlikely. Its to provoke escalation, where he gets to snarl about nukes and forces a hard ceasefire where he retains these smashed territories. So I think you could be right about a freezing cold war, but I'm not worried about nuclear fire because we won't unless there is no choice and then Russia becomes glass which isn't Putin's choice.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Pour yourself a drink and chill pal. You're allowing the darkest possible outcomes to dominate your thinking.
I doubt it's anywhere near as bleak as you suggest, nor is it as positive as some have suggested.
Ok, so you tell me how you see the next 9 months playing out. Now Putin has gone for mobilization?
Most likely?
Phoney referendums used by Putin as an excuse to hold the Donbas. Grim stalemate through the winter.
Worsening morale within the Russian forces, leading to desertions and infighting.
By next summer something will break. Probably Russian unity.
Where are you seeing "Putin is preparing for peace'?
He's clearly not.
People were speculating the mobilisation was to shore up the front while other forces steadied the ship at home, with the prisoner swap an indication he is laying groundwork to start seriously considering how to extricate himself from Ukraine.
A bit optimistic.
The prisoner swap is, I think, about using a tiny bit of diplomacy as a sop to those in the Russian regimes who want to try and re-build some relationships with the outside world. Putin probably thinks it makes him look magnanimous and a colossus of soft power or something, as well.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Total bollocks. There’s 40m Ukranians, and they have almost unlimited supply lines so long as the west keeps the support coming. A weak Putin trying something stupid, will be met with a very hard, but likely conventional, response.
If Putin drops a nuke, you think we would escalate in response?
It’s an idea, I suppose
I think the US said that if they used one they would sink the Black Sea fleet in response.
At a minimum. The US could disable the Russians ability to make War at all. Except for lobbing nukes around.
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Far better to take unpopular but important decisions now, govern well, and leave popular decisions until closer to election day.
Truss is honouring her commitments, reversing the NI tax and doing what she believes in. Good for her, that's what PMs are supposed to do, not vapidly chase every headline or opinion poll.
Is she honouring her commitment about local consent for fracking, Bart?
I don't know how she's intending to measure local support, do you? Has that been said?
Planning permission I assume, can't think how else it would work
I don't know either, but that would be honouring her commitment wouldn't it, if normal planning permission processes are followed?
Though NIMBYs and protest/lobby groups shouldn't be allowed to have a unilateral veto.
Seems reasonable for important national infrastructure to be granted NSIP status, that is normal procedures being followed is it not?
Give local people some money for it being done, and I'm sure some there will support it, even if others don't, and the commitment is honoured. The pledge was for local support, not local consent or permission.
If its not viable then what's the point in banning it? Just have it legal, but nobody doing it as its not viable.
There's a logic to banning it given the potential damage to buildings due to minor earthquakes.
I appreciate there are two schools of thought on that one but why risk it since it's going to be uneconomical to extract the gas anyway?
I can sympathise a little with the "why ban it" argument, but there are two substantial problems. 1. The proposal isn't to "unban" fracking, its to place it at the heart of our emergency energy policy. As fracking will not do what it has been billed as doing, that screws up our energy policy which opens the door to the room of pain regarding future energy prices 2. The purpose of government is to legislate on areas where national interest decisions need to be made. Here we have something which is wildly unpopular, creates environmental messes AND doesn't produce the gas needed. So a ban seems reasonable on multiple fronts.
Again again, imposing this over the wishes of voters to screw up their environment on a project that fails is how you lose seats...
Hmm. I disagree with that.
I think the fracking proposal (which will make minimal difference anyway) is like one of those flares chucked out of a Russian helicopter to distract the missiles, or a bone thrown 20m away so all the mad dogs go chasing it.
Meanwhile La Truss is getting on with core stuff whilst the maddos and saddos from all sides have a squabble over an irrelevance, and keep themselves out of the way.
I agree that its a distraction. As fracking will not actually work according to the frackers, it won't become universal policy. But as I said on another response, that it is at the heart of their emergency energy policy is a problem. Also a political problem is the serious stresses it will impose on Tory constituencies where they object, get ignored and called Putin shills for good measure.
How well will 300k raw recruits really fight? And how fast can they train and be deployed? And it what volume at once?
They probably know which end of the AK-47 is which. Not very fast, they don’t have a lot of officers spare right now. Not very many, unless they really do want to use them as expendable cannon fodder.
I never understand this "cannon fodder" stuff. I have a lifetime history of in depth study of modern infantry tactics, consisting of watching the first 30 minutes of Saving Private Ryan dozens of times and then rewinding the tape. Are the casualties in those 30 mins infantry doing what infantry do, or cannon fodder? What's the difference?
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Far better to take unpopular but important decisions now, govern well, and leave popular decisions until closer to election day.
Truss is honouring her commitments, reversing the NI tax and doing what she believes in. Good for her, that's what PMs are supposed to do, not vapidly chase every headline or opinion poll.
Is she honouring her commitment about local consent for fracking, Bart?
I don't know how she's intending to measure local support, do you? Has that been said?
Planning permission I assume, can't think how else it would work
I don't know either, but that would be honouring her commitment wouldn't it, if normal planning permission processes are followed?
Though NIMBYs and protest/lobby groups shouldn't be allowed to have a unilateral veto.
Seems reasonable for important national infrastructure to be granted NSIP status, that is normal procedures being followed is it not?
Give local people some money for it being done, and I'm sure some there will support it, even if others don't, and the commitment is honoured. The pledge was for local support, not local consent or permission.
If its not viable then what's the point in banning it? Just have it legal, but nobody doing it as its not viable.
There's a logic to banning it given the potential damage to buildings due to minor earthquakes.
I appreciate there are two schools of thought on that one but why risk it since it's going to be uneconomical to extract the gas anyway?
I can sympathise a little with the "why ban it" argument, but there are two substantial problems. 1. The proposal isn't to "unban" fracking, its to place it at the heart of our emergency energy policy. As fracking will not do what it has been billed as doing, that screws up our energy policy which opens the door to the room of pain regarding future energy prices 2. The purpose of government is to legislate on areas where national interest decisions need to be made. Here we have something which is wildly unpopular, creates environmental messes AND doesn't produce the gas needed. So a ban seems reasonable on multiple fronts.
Again again, imposing this over the wishes of voters to screw up their environment on a project that fails is how you lose seats...
1. Where's your source for that assertion? I have seen nothing about this being 'at the heart' of our energy policy.
2. There are two existing Cuadrilla wells in Lancashire that are viable. To cement those up (as there have been strong pushes to do) during a winter energy crisis, would be perverse in the extreme, would it not?
Switch them on, and see what can be got. If the Government is sensible, it will offer fracking licenses on the basis of all gas being sold domestically at below market rates (better than not being allowed to frack at all). Will it be enough to power a village? A small town? A big town? Who knows - it all helps.
PB has been warned of a forthcoming tidal wave of poverty and starvation, but still many of us oppose opening this avenue of supply, for the most spurious of reasons. So they obviously don't give that much of a crap about the shivering poor.
Question. The boss of Cuadrilla says fracking doesn't work. What do you know about his wells that he does not?
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Far better to take unpopular but important decisions now, govern well, and leave popular decisions until closer to election day.
Truss is honouring her commitments, reversing the NI tax and doing what she believes in. Good for her, that's what PMs are supposed to do, not vapidly chase every headline or opinion poll.
Is she honouring her commitment about local consent for fracking, Bart?
I don't know how she's intending to measure local support, do you? Has that been said?
She will ask a typical MP for an area suitable for fracking. For example, North East Somerset.
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Far better to take unpopular but important decisions now, govern well, and leave popular decisions until closer to election day.
Truss is honouring her commitments, reversing the NI tax and doing what she believes in. Good for her, that's what PMs are supposed to do, not vapidly chase every headline or opinion poll.
Is she honouring her commitment about local consent for fracking, Bart?
I don't know how she's intending to measure local support, do you? Has that been said?
Planning permission I assume, can't think how else it would work
I don't know either, but that would be honouring her commitment wouldn't it, if normal planning permission processes are followed?
Though NIMBYs and protest/lobby groups shouldn't be allowed to have a unilateral veto.
Seems reasonable for important national infrastructure to be granted NSIP status, that is normal procedures being followed is it not?
Give local people some money for it being done, and I'm sure some there will support it, even if others don't, and the commitment is honoured. The pledge was for local support, not local consent or permission.
If its not viable then what's the point in banning it? Just have it legal, but nobody doing it as its not viable.
There's a logic to banning it given the potential damage to buildings due to minor earthquakes.
I appreciate there are two schools of thought on that one but why risk it since it's going to be uneconomical to extract the gas anyway?
I can sympathise a little with the "why ban it" argument, but there are two substantial problems. 1. The proposal isn't to "unban" fracking, its to place it at the heart of our emergency energy policy. As fracking will not do what it has been billed as doing, that screws up our energy policy which opens the door to the room of pain regarding future energy prices 2. The purpose of government is to legislate on areas where national interest decisions need to be made. Here we have something which is wildly unpopular, creates environmental messes AND doesn't produce the gas needed. So a ban seems reasonable on multiple fronts.
Again again, imposing this over the wishes of voters to screw up their environment on a project that fails is how you lose seats...
Hmm. I disagree with that.
I think the fracking proposal (which will make minimal difference anyway) is like one of those flares chucked out of a Russian helicopter to distract the missiles, or a bone thrown 20m away so all the mad dogs go chasing it.
Meanwhile La Truss is getting on with core stuff whilst the maddos and saddos from all sides have a squabble over an irrelevance, and keep themselves out of the way.
I agree that its a distraction. As fracking will not actually work according to the frackers, it won't become universal policy. But as I said on another response, that it is at the heart of their emergency energy policy is a problem. Also a political problem is the serious stresses it will impose on Tory constituencies where they object, get ignored and called Putin shills for good measure.
If the economic case doesn't stack up, why would they get ignored? This way people can feel empowered to make the decision themselves and everyone is happy.
Where are you seeing "Putin is preparing for peace'?
He's clearly not.
People were speculating the mobilisation was to shore up the front while other forces steadied the ship at home, with the prisoner swap an indication he is laying groundwork to start seriously considering how to extricate himself from Ukraine.
A bit optimistic.
The prisoner swap is, I think, about using a tiny bit of diplomacy as a sop to those in the Russian regimes who want to try and re-build some relationships with the outside world. Putin probably thinks it makes him look magnanimous and a colossus of soft power or something, as well.
Do we have any stats on prisoner numbers?
I saw a little about Ua running out of accommodation space, but have seen nothing detailed.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Pour yourself a drink and chill pal. You're allowing the darkest possible outcomes to dominate your thinking.
I doubt it's anywhere near as bleak as you suggest, nor is it as positive as some have suggested.
Ok, so you tell me how you see the next 9 months playing out. Now Putin has gone for mobilization?
As I mused on this yesterday, mobilised them for what? They don't have heavy weapons. Or likely even light weapons. They will be poorly trained with worse morale. So I think their function is to be reverse human shields:
Referenda says 98% of occupied territories want to be Russia Russia floods said territories with draftees When Ukraine inevitably kills draftees thats WAR that is, inside Russia with NATO weapons killing Russians.
So when you talk about mobilisation it isn't to militarily win the war - that seems very unlikely. Its to provoke escalation, where he gets to snarl about nukes and forces a hard ceasefire where he retains these smashed territories. So I think you could be right about a freezing cold war, but I'm not worried about nuclear fire because we won't unless there is no choice and then Russia becomes glass which isn't Putin's choice.
Yes that’s pretty much exactly what I expect. Putin will use some of his new troops to stop the Ukrainian advance, and train the rest over the winter so they are ready if necessary for offensive movements
However the chances of him using a small nuke (or some other WMD) to freak us out in the meantime are quite high
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Pour yourself a drink and chill pal. You're allowing the darkest possible outcomes to dominate your thinking.
I doubt it's anywhere near as bleak as you suggest, nor is it as positive as some have suggested.
Ok, so you tell me how you see the next 9 months playing out. Now Putin has gone for mobilization?
As I mused on this yesterday, mobilised them for what? They don't have heavy weapons. Or likely even light weapons. They will be poorly trained with worse morale. So I think their function is to be reverse human shields:
Referenda says 98% of occupied territories want to be Russia Russia floods said territories with draftees When Ukraine inevitably kills draftees thats WAR that is, inside Russia with NATO weapons killing Russians.
So when you talk about mobilisation it isn't to militarily win the war - that seems very unlikely. Its to provoke escalation, where he gets to snarl about nukes and forces a hard ceasefire where he retains these smashed territories. So I think you could be right about a freezing cold war, but I'm not worried about nuclear fire because we won't unless there is no choice and then Russia becomes glass which isn't Putin's choice.
Yes that’s pretty much exactly what I expect. Putin will use some of his new troops to stop the Ukrainian advance, and train the rest over the winter so they are ready if necessary for offensive movements
However the chances of him using a small nuke (or some other WMD) to freak us out in the meantime are quite high
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
Where are you seeing "Putin is preparing for peace'?
He's clearly not.
People were speculating the mobilisation was to shore up the front while other forces steadied the ship at home, with the prisoner swap an indication he is laying groundwork to start seriously considering how to extricate himself from Ukraine.
A bit optimistic.
The prisoner swap is, I think, about using a tiny bit of diplomacy as a sop to those in the Russian regimes who want to try and re-build some relationships with the outside world. Putin probably thinks it makes him look magnanimous and a colossus of soft power or something, as well.
I doubt whether the core expect anything from it.
It will more imo be new renewables that bail them out on the energy front, plus reductions in inflation.
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Pour yourself a drink and chill pal. You're allowing the darkest possible outcomes to dominate your thinking.
I doubt it's anywhere near as bleak as you suggest, nor is it as positive as some have suggested.
Ok, so you tell me how you see the next 9 months playing out. Now Putin has gone for mobilization?
As I mused on this yesterday, mobilised them for what? They don't have heavy weapons. Or likely even light weapons. They will be poorly trained with worse morale. So I think their function is to be reverse human shields:
Referenda says 98% of occupied territories want to be Russia Russia floods said territories with draftees When Ukraine inevitably kills draftees thats WAR that is, inside Russia with NATO weapons killing Russians.
So when you talk about mobilisation it isn't to militarily win the war - that seems very unlikely. Its to provoke escalation, where he gets to snarl about nukes and forces a hard ceasefire where he retains these smashed territories. So I think you could be right about a freezing cold war, but I'm not worried about nuclear fire because we won't unless there is no choice and then Russia becomes glass which isn't Putin's choice.
Yes that’s pretty much exactly what I expect. Putin will use some of his new troops to stop the Ukrainian advance, and train the rest over the winter so they are ready if necessary for offensive movements
However the chances of him using a small nuke (or some other WMD) to freak us out in the meantime are quite high
You're already freaked out.
No, I’m not. I’m lying on my sofa musing reality
And I am afraid reality is grim. It’s wishful thinking to believe Ukraine has got this won and Russia will retreat and accept defeat
This is going to grind on and Russia has a lot of resources, and a psycho at the top who will do anything to avoid the fate of Muammar Gadaffi
How well will 300k raw recruits really fight? And how fast can they train and be deployed? And it what volume at once?
They probably know which end of the AK-47 is which. Not very fast, they don’t have a lot of officers spare right now. Not very many, unless they really do want to use them as expendable cannon fodder.
I never understand this "cannon fodder" stuff. I have a lifetime history of in depth study of modern infantry tactics, consisting of watching the first 30 minutes of Saving Private Ryan dozens of times and then rewinding the tape. Are the casualties in those 30 mins infantry doing what infantry do, or cannon fodder? What's the difference?
That’s pretty much the way Omaha beach went. Light armed troops against defenders well dug in…
A failed attack would have been several times worse. That was what happened to the 54th Massachusetts Infantry Regiment at Fort Wagner, for example.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Pour yourself a drink and chill pal. You're allowing the darkest possible outcomes to dominate your thinking.
I doubt it's anywhere near as bleak as you suggest, nor is it as positive as some have suggested.
Ok, so you tell me how you see the next 9 months playing out. Now Putin has gone for mobilization?
As I mused on this yesterday, mobilised them for what? They don't have heavy weapons. Or likely even light weapons. They will be poorly trained with worse morale. So I think their function is to be reverse human shields:
Referenda says 98% of occupied territories want to be Russia Russia floods said territories with draftees When Ukraine inevitably kills draftees thats WAR that is, inside Russia with NATO weapons killing Russians.
So when you talk about mobilisation it isn't to militarily win the war - that seems very unlikely. Its to provoke escalation, where he gets to snarl about nukes and forces a hard ceasefire where he retains these smashed territories. So I think you could be right about a freezing cold war, but I'm not worried about nuclear fire because we won't unless there is no choice and then Russia becomes glass which isn't Putin's choice.
Yes that’s pretty much exactly what I expect. Putin will use some of his new troops to stop the Ukrainian advance, and train the rest over the winter so they are ready if necessary for offensive movements
However the chances of him using a small nuke (or some other WMD) to freak us out in the meantime are quite high
Given that Putin has lost something like 150k-175k+ troops as killed or wounded, it will only fill the gaps.
Plus they plundered the trainers from their own training units to reinforce the front, so there are relatively few people to train them.
And they will be poor quality as Russia does not do decent training of these type of servicemen, and they are relatively old.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Total bollocks. There’s 40m Ukranians, and they have almost unlimited supply lines so long as the west keeps the support coming. A weak Putin trying something stupid, will be met with a very hard, but likely conventional, response.
If Putin drops a nuke, you think we would escalate in response?
It’s an idea, I suppose
I think the US said that if they used one they would sink the Black Sea fleet in response.
Does the US have the recovery capability to raise it first, before sinking it for a second time?
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Far better to take unpopular but important decisions now, govern well, and leave popular decisions until closer to election day.
Truss is honouring her commitments, reversing the NI tax and doing what she believes in. Good for her, that's what PMs are supposed to do, not vapidly chase every headline or opinion poll.
Is she honouring her commitment about local consent for fracking, Bart?
I don't know how she's intending to measure local support, do you? Has that been said?
Planning permission I assume, can't think how else it would work
I don't know either, but that would be honouring her commitment wouldn't it, if normal planning permission processes are followed?
Though NIMBYs and protest/lobby groups shouldn't be allowed to have a unilateral veto.
Seems reasonable for important national infrastructure to be granted NSIP status, that is normal procedures being followed is it not?
Give local people some money for it being done, and I'm sure some there will support it, even if others don't, and the commitment is honoured. The pledge was for local support, not local consent or permission.
If its not viable then what's the point in banning it? Just have it legal, but nobody doing it as its not viable.
There's a logic to banning it given the potential damage to buildings due to minor earthquakes.
I appreciate there are two schools of thought on that one but why risk it since it's going to be uneconomical to extract the gas anyway?
I can sympathise a little with the "why ban it" argument, but there are two substantial problems. 1. The proposal isn't to "unban" fracking, its to place it at the heart of our emergency energy policy. As fracking will not do what it has been billed as doing, that screws up our energy policy which opens the door to the room of pain regarding future energy prices 2. The purpose of government is to legislate on areas where national interest decisions need to be made. Here we have something which is wildly unpopular, creates environmental messes AND doesn't produce the gas needed. So a ban seems reasonable on multiple fronts.
Again again, imposing this over the wishes of voters to screw up their environment on a project that fails is how you lose seats...
1. Where's your source for that assertion? I have seen nothing about this being 'at the heart' of our energy policy.
2. There are two existing Cuadrilla wells in Lancashire that are viable. To cement those up (as there have been strong pushes to do) during a winter energy crisis, would be perverse in the extreme, would it not?
Switch them on, and see what can be got. If the Government is sensible, it will offer fracking licenses on the basis of all gas being sold domestically at below market rates (better than not being allowed to frack at all). Will it be enough to power a village? A small town? A big town? Who knows - it all helps.
PB has been warned of a forthcoming tidal wave of poverty and starvation, but still many of us oppose opening this avenue of supply, for the most spurious of reasons. So they obviously don't give that much of a crap about the shivering poor.
Question. The boss of Cuadrilla says fracking doesn't work. What do you know about his wells that he does not?
The person who used to run Cuadrilla says that, and he's referring to UK shale in general, not the viability or otherwise of the two wells in question, which I don't think is in dispute:
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
Was it he or Fisher or both who wanted to invade Germany on its Baltic coast in the Great War? Now that would have been something ...
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
You carp on that everyone on this site is unfairly and un-objectively partisan against your preferred team, and then you finish your post with a wholly subjective commentary about the side you do not favour.
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
You carp on that everyone on this site is unfairly and un-objectively partisan against your preferred team, and then you finish your post with a wholly subjective commentary about the side you do not favour.
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
You carp on that everyone on this site is unfairly and un-objectively partisan against your preferred team, and then you finish your post with a wholly subjective commentary about the side you do not favour.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
Was it he or Fisher or both who wanted to invade Germany on its Baltic coast in the Great War? Now that would have been something ...
Fisher first in WWI, Churchill in WWII
Alan Brooke did more than many men for the allied cause. By telling Churchill no on the mad ideas and channeling his drive, he must have shortened the war by a good chunk.
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
So write some headers! The sad reality is that so many PBers including long-standing Tories think this is awful. And voters agree. That's not to say that the site is now pro-Labour propaganda - so many of the ex Tories attacking this government share your opinion on Labour.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
A big Churchill problem was that he could not read a relief map so was forever sending troops to be mountaineers: Dardanelles; Dieppe; Italy to name but three. Also he had no understanding of logistics. The Americans eventually got tired of bailing us out and by the end of the war were talking almost exclusively to Uncle Joe.
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
I'm struggling to understand why anybody so disparaging about this site would bother to read it, or comment on it. Weird.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
A big Churchill problem was that he could not read a relief map so was forever sending troops to be mountaineers: Dardanelles; Dieppe; Italy to name but three. Also he had no understanding of logistics. The Americans eventually got tired of bailing us out and by the end of the war were talking almost exclusively to Uncle Joe.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
Was it he or Fisher or both who wanted to invade Germany on its Baltic coast in the Great War? Now that would have been something ...
"In this presentation Professor Lambert talks about Admiral Sir Jacky Fisher's Baltic plans, which were far more complex, and sophisticated than the parody that Churchill published."
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
A big Churchill problem was that he could not read a relief map so was forever sending troops to be mountaineers: Dardanelles; Dieppe; Italy to name but three. Also he had no understanding of logistics. The Americans eventually got tired of bailing us out and by the end of the war were talking almost exclusively to Uncle Joe.
The Dardanelles actually nearly worked. Twice.
A miss is as good as a mile.
What you mean is, having failed once, he tried again and failed again.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
Was it he or Fisher or both who wanted to invade Germany on its Baltic coast in the Great War? Now that would have been something ...
Hence the shallow draft Courageous and Glorious battlecruisers, with paper thin armour and only 4 big guns. They were quickly converted to aircraft carriers after WW1. A third, Furious, was converted whilst being built, only ever having 1 big gun.
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Far better to take unpopular but important decisions now, govern well, and leave popular decisions until closer to election day.
Truss is honouring her commitments, reversing the NI tax and doing what she believes in. Good for her, that's what PMs are supposed to do, not vapidly chase every headline or opinion poll.
Is she honouring her commitment about local consent for fracking, Bart?
I don't know how she's intending to measure local support, do you? Has that been said?
Planning permission I assume, can't think how else it would work
I don't know either, but that would be honouring her commitment wouldn't it, if normal planning permission processes are followed?
Though NIMBYs and protest/lobby groups shouldn't be allowed to have a unilateral veto.
Seems reasonable for important national infrastructure to be granted NSIP status, that is normal procedures being followed is it not?
Give local people some money for it being done, and I'm sure some there will support it, even if others don't, and the commitment is honoured. The pledge was for local support, not local consent or permission.
If its not viable then what's the point in banning it? Just have it legal, but nobody doing it as its not viable.
There's a logic to banning it given the potential damage to buildings due to minor earthquakes.
I appreciate there are two schools of thought on that one but why risk it since it's going to be uneconomical to extract the gas anyway?
I can sympathise a little with the "why ban it" argument, but there are two substantial problems. 1. The proposal isn't to "unban" fracking, its to place it at the heart of our emergency energy policy. As fracking will not do what it has been billed as doing, that screws up our energy policy which opens the door to the room of pain regarding future energy prices 2. The purpose of government is to legislate on areas where national interest decisions need to be made. Here we have something which is wildly unpopular, creates environmental messes AND doesn't produce the gas needed. So a ban seems reasonable on multiple fronts.
Again again, imposing this over the wishes of voters to screw up their environment on a project that fails is how you lose seats...
1. Where's your source for that assertion? I have seen nothing about this being 'at the heart' of our energy policy.
2. There are two existing Cuadrilla wells in Lancashire that are viable. To cement those up (as there have been strong pushes to do) during a winter energy crisis, would be perverse in the extreme, would it not?
Switch them on, and see what can be got. If the Government is sensible, it will offer fracking licenses on the basis of all gas being sold domestically at below market rates (better than not being allowed to frack at all). Will it be enough to power a village? A small town? A big town? Who knows - it all helps.
PB has been warned of a forthcoming tidal wave of poverty and starvation, but still many of us oppose opening this avenue of supply, for the most spurious of reasons. So they obviously don't give that much of a crap about the shivering poor.
Question. The boss of Cuadrilla says fracking doesn't work. What do you know about his wells that he does not?
The person who used to run Cuadrilla says that, and he's referring to UK shale in general, not the viability or otherwise of the two wells in question, which I don't think is in dispute:
1. His article actually welcomes the lifting of the ban. It just predicts that fracking will never become a big part of UK energy supply. So it doesn't support the arguments of those highlighting it.
2. 'He is currently the CEO and President of CanCambria Energy Corp, a private Vancouver based South American focused exploration company.' - it is good to hear from industry experts, but its also important to realise that their views will be coloured by their current experiences and roles. Not necessarily in the sense of consciously talking up their own book, but reflecting their current enthusiasms and ambitions. If we heard a big critique of Disneyland from the CEO of Alton Towers, we would want to take a variety of other views on board.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
A big Churchill problem was that he could not read a relief map so was forever sending troops to be mountaineers: Dardanelles; Dieppe; Italy to name but three. Also he had no understanding of logistics. The Americans eventually got tired of bailing us out and by the end of the war were talking almost exclusively to Uncle Joe.
The Dardanelles actually nearly worked. Twice.
The good thing about Churchill is that he was down on attrition and big on innovation, from tanks to code-breaking. A lot of the infrastructure for our defence had been put in place under the much-maligned Chamberlain.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
An interesting day and we're getting an increasing sense of how this Government is going to be between now and the next election. It's a gamble but then all politics is to some degree. The fundamental is Truss and her cohorts think the only way they will get the Conservative vote is to convince people to feel better off and be optimistic about the short term prospects (after all, it doesn't matter how bad 2026 is if they are re-elected).
There's nothing wrong with that (just to placate @squareroot2) and it's true to say if the general mood is optimistic and confident, the Government of the day usually benefits (not always, just to annoy @squareroot2). The big problem the Conservatives have is the fact they have had 14 years leading the Government - will 2024 be 1992 redux? I'm not a huge believer in such symmetries to be honest.
In terms of fracking, I thought the process went something like this:
STAGE 1: Public Consultation - a gentle question. If there is no strong negative response, fracking can proceed. STAGE 2: Public Engagement - JRM pushes a wheelbarrow full of used £20 notes down each person's front path. Once that happens, it's back to Stage 1 with the hope of a more "informed" outcome. STAGE 3: The National Interest - if, after Stages 1 and 2, there is still huge local hostility to fracking, announce "it's in the national interest" and start fracking.
Put even more simply, it's ABI - Ask, Bribe, Ignore.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Try clearing any debris from the impeller. There will be a YouTube vid by some clever clogs for your machine to show you what to do. Five minutes of effort and if it works you will have that satisfied F13 you Santander and Banhams feeling to cheer the rest of your day!
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Re: keys, maybe try using some sandpaper on them? That works sometimes.
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
So write some headers! The sad reality is that so many PBers including long-standing Tories think this is awful. And voters agree. That's not to say that the site is now pro-Labour propaganda - so many of the ex Tories attacking this government share your opinion on Labour.
Why are the Tories such a bunch of workshys? Why are the LibDems such a bore? Why are the Greens and Farageists such terrible mountebanks? And dealing with your Lords, always a chore. From Stormont to the Sennedd Hall, they'll lie as soon as draw a breath Labour sell their mothers for a crown Plaid Cymru live in bungalows and eat the bits between dogs toes The SNP are thieves of wide renown. These truths we hold, self evident and fancy free Take heed now, for we'll only say it once. All points of politics are filled with mediocrity For politicians are a terrible bunch of [cut to the censorship card]
Re; Fracking and the Commons footage, Miliband really is a far better parliamentary performer these days. Rees-Mogg is even too embarassed to look up at any stage. He usually at least throws a few patronising, amused glances into the mix.
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
I'm struggling to understand why anybody so disparaging about this site would bother to read it, or comment on it. Weird.
In any case, OGH has no obligation to be even handed or impartial. If you want news and a comment with a strong pro-Government bias, try the Daily Mail, Daily Express, GB News, Talk TV etc.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Re: keys, maybe try using some sandpaper on them? That works sometimes.
Re; Fracking and the Commons footage, Miliband really is a far better parliamentary performer these days. Rees-Mogg is even too embarassed to look up at any stage. He usually, at least, throws a few patronising, amused glances into the mix.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Try clearing any debris from the impeller. There will be a YouTube vid by some clever clogs for your machine to show you what to do. Five mi items of effort and if it works you will have that satisfied F13 you Santander and Banhams feeling to cheer the rest of your day!
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Just give up, laugh, do something else, and stop trying wrestle the problems to the ground and killing them. They will sort themselves once you leave off them. Take care of your mood first.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Total bollocks. There’s 40m Ukranians, and they
have almost unlimited supply lines so long as the west keeps the support coming. A weak Putin
trying something stupid, will be met with a very hard, but likely conventional, response.
If Putin drops a nuke, you think we would
escalate in response?
It’s an idea, I suppose
Close. Too close. To a Boba Bullshit Cliche (BBC).
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Try clearing any debris from the impeller. There will be a YouTube vid by some clever clogs for your machine to show you what to do. Five mi items of effort and if it works you will have that satisfied F13 you Santander and Banhams feeling to cheer the rest of your day!
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Our dishwasher gave us error code 01 about a month ago, and multiple visits by the repair man plus 2 parts orders later it still doesn’t work. Now waiting for a new circuit board. £350 so far but we’re too far into the sink cost fallacy to replace the whole thing.
A month of manual washing up, which takes forever.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
F13: likely to be a fault with the water softener or the hardness of the water in the machine
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Our dishwasher gave us error code 01 about a month ago, and multiple visits by the repair man plus 2 parts orders later it still doesn’t work. Now waiting for a new circuit board. £350 so far but we’re too far into the sink cost fallacy to replace the whole thing.
A month of manual washing up, which takes forever.
My dishwasher's element burned out some time ago, having been unreliable for a while.
I have decided I don't want to waste money repairing or replacing it so I now wash up by hand.
Which is fine for a person on his own, and certainly cheaper.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
F13: likely to be a fault with the water softener or the hardness of the water in the machine
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Total bollocks. There’s 40m Ukranians, and they have almost unlimited supply lines so long as the west keeps the support coming. A weak Putin trying something stupid, will be met with a very hard, but likely conventional, response.
If Putin drops a nuke, you think we would escalate in response?
It’s an idea, I suppose
We'll have no choice.
We can't just stand by and do nothing, or else Putin can nuke anyone else with impunity. Of course we would - and he needs to be in no doubt that we would too, to prevent him doing it.
And if we have made it clear we'd escalate, we'd need to follow through, or else we'd have no credibility.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Our dishwasher gave us error code 01 about a month ago, and multiple visits by the repair man plus 2 parts orders later it still doesn’t work. Now waiting for a new circuit board. £350 so far but we’re too far into the sink cost fallacy to replace the whole thing.
A month of manual washing up, which takes forever.
My dishwasher's element burned out some time ago, having been unreliable for a while.
I have decided I don't want to waste money repairing or replacing it so I now wash up by hand.
Which is fine for a person on his own, and certainly cheaper.
About 2 years back my John Lewis dishwasher burst into flame mid cycle, with flames coming out the electrics. I switched it off at the wall and put it out with a wet dishcloth as fire blanket.
Updated kitchen fire safety as well as dishwasher since!
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Our dishwasher gave us error code 01 about a month ago, and multiple visits by the repair man plus 2 parts orders later it still doesn’t work. Now waiting for a new circuit board. £350 so far but we’re too far into the sink cost fallacy to replace the whole thing.
A month of manual washing up, which takes forever.
My dishwasher's element burned out some time ago, having been unreliable for a while.
I have decided I don't want to waste money repairing or replacing it so I now wash up by hand.
Which is fine for a person on his own, and certainly cheaper.
It's so disappointing when the crap associated with owning a product and repairing it involves more cost than buying it in the first place. Inkjet printers for example seem to sell for less than the cost of ink replacements.
I presume Putin's plan (if there is one) is to stabilise the current lines (more or less) through the winter with the aim of a renewed counter-offensive in March next year.
Mobilisation presumably just doesn't mean boots on the ground but also increases armaments production to replace the lost ordinance so it's not just more men, it's more men with replacement equipment (probably no better than before).
Come next spring, assuming nothing happens in the interim, the Russians will try again with the aim (I would guess) of inflicting a decisive defeat on the Ukraine and forcing a political change in Kyiv to a more "friendly" Government who would then invite Russian forces in for a spell.
There isnt a thread on the site that even tries to see anything the Govt does in a good light. It's been doom and gloom since Boris and only the death of her Majesty has obscured the gloomy threads. The site doesn't even try to be even handed, especially Cyclefree who just wants to find something she can put the boot into..... the Govt isn't great but it's not as bad as its portrayed as. Just think of the potential future Ministers in Labour and..... chunder.
I'm struggling to understand why anybody so disparaging about this site would bother to read it, or comment on it. Weird.
Well you obviously don't read the site enough. There are intelligent posters on the site who impart interesting information. It's just such a drag to trawl thro all the partisan bullshit that infects the site..
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Our dishwasher gave us error code 01 about a month ago, and multiple visits by the repair man plus 2 parts orders later it still doesn’t work. Now waiting for a new circuit board. £350 so far but we’re too far into the sink cost fallacy to replace the whole thing.
A month of manual washing up, which takes forever.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Re: keys, maybe try using some sandpaper on them? That works sometimes.
That might get her summonsed for assault.
Oh sorry, did you mean use it on the keys?
What I find so immensely frustrating is that if I had done my job as incompetently as these bozos I'd have been out on my arse years ago. We put up with the second and third rate when really we should be giving these companies boots up their arses all day every day so that they DO THEIR FUCKING JOB instead of apologising all the time for their shit service.
Is this too much to ask?
And yes I've done the impeller thing and checked filters and all the other stuff but I am not going to spend the evening bailing water out of my spiteful dishwasher with a spoon.
I have to book a flight to Chicago and a hotel and that'll probably be another hour of misery and then I have to do some actual fee-paying work.
The only good thing that has happened to me this week is that my newly acquired American editor told me that I was a great communicator and writer and only made marginal edits to my article. And it's just as well she didn't speak to me today because the communication might have been rather too Anglo-Saxon even for her.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
F13: likely to be a fault with the water softener or the hardness of the water in the machine
If it is a Miele machine it will be a blockage in the impeller or the ball bearing is stuck. If so simple to rectify but messy. This can also lead to flooding. If the blockage can be cleared the flood needs to be cleared too.There is normally an inspection panel at the bottom of the machine held in by two torx bolts. Undo these and remove the panel. Then just use an absorbent like a sponge to remove all the water. Touch wood it should then all be fine. If not it will be expensive.
I presume Putin's plan (if there is one) is to stabilise the current lines (more or less) through the winter with the aim of a renewed counter-offensive in March next year.
Mobilisation presumably just doesn't mean boots on the ground but also increases armaments production to replace the lost ordinance so it's not just more men, it's more men with replacement equipment (probably no better than before).
Come next spring, assuming nothing happens in the interim, the Russians will try again with the aim (I would guess) of inflicting a decisive defeat on the Ukraine and forcing a political change in Kyiv to a more "friendly" Government who would then invite Russian forces in for a spell.
Putin's plan is to ride, bare-chested, into the midst of those that have not seen the light of the true Putin.
Edit: Trigger, his horse, has recently been spotted in the Finland border queue.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
F13: likely to be a fault with the water softener or the hardness of the water in the machine
Temperature sensor
It seems to vary depending upon which brand it is. Some its water softener or hardness, some its temperature, and some its a failure on water intake. Would need to know which brand it is, to match the brand with the code.
Hope your day gets better Cyclefree, but I agree with the advice that you can fix most problems with devices like dishwashers etc by following videos on Youtube if you find one for your model/brand and error code - and that could hopefully give you a sense of satisfaction. Good luck with that and the rest of your problems.
A three-judge appeals court panel has granted the Justice Department’s request to block aspects of U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon’s ruling that delayed a criminal investigation into highly sensitive documents seized from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.
The panel ruled that Cannon, a Trump appointee, erred when she temporarily prevented federal prosecutors from using the roughly 100 documents — marked as classified – recovered from Trump’s estate as part of a criminal inquiry.
Trump “has not even attempted to show that he has a need to know the information contained in the classified documents,” the panel ruled in a 29-page decision. “Nor has he established that the current administration has waived that requirement for these documents.”
Two of the three judges on the panel, Andrew Brasher and Britt Grant, were appointed to the court by Trump. The third, Robin Rosenbaum, was appointed by President Barack Obama. In the unanimous decision, the judges declared it “self-evident” that the public interest favored allowing the Justice Department to determine whether any of the records were improperly disclosed, risking national security damage.
“For our part, we cannot discern why Plaintiff would have an individual interest in or need for any of the one-hundred documents with classification markings,” the appeals court wrote in an opinion that listed no individual judge as the author.
While Cannon speculated in her ruling that allowing investigators continued access to the documents could result in leaks of their contents, the appeals panel brushed aside that concern.
“Permitting the United States to retain the documents does not suggest that they will be released; indeed, a purpose of the United States’s efforts in investigating the recovered classified documents is to limit unauthorized disclosure of the information they contain,” the appeals judges wrote. “Not only that, but any authorized official who makes an improper disclosure risks her own criminal liability.”
he 11th Circuit’s rules appear to preclude any attempt to ask the full bench of that court to reconsider the government’s motion, but Trump could seek emergency relief from the Supreme Court.
Trump attorney Christopher Kise did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the ruling. . . .
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
A big Churchill problem was that he could not read a relief map so was forever sending troops to be mountaineers: Dardanelles; Dieppe; Italy to name but three. Also he had no understanding of logistics. The Americans eventually got tired of bailing us out and by the end of the war were talking almost exclusively to Uncle Joe.
The Dardanelles actually nearly worked. Twice.
The good thing about Churchill is that he was down on attrition and big on innovation, from tanks to code-breaking. A lot of the infrastructure for our defence had been put in place under the much-maligned Chamberlain.
Chamberlain is something of a hero of mine. He knew exactly what he was doing. He knew exactly what Hitler was. And he sold his reputation to buy Britain another 12 months. And boy did he use it.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an enormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
The problem is, that the nukes are pretty much all he has.
He’s dragging out tanks from half a century ago, is begging Kim Jong-Un for some ammo shells, what’s left of the navy appears to be out of missiles, and he still can’t get ammo, food, or cold-weather clothes to the surrounded troops in Kherson. Throwing another million barely-trained men at the problem, is simply going to result in needing a hundred thousand more body bags.
Hitler reached the gates of Moscow and still lost to Russia. Napoleon actually conquered Moscow, and lost
Now Putin has said ‘OK this is a war’ then it is a war - and a war of existence. Russia has nukes and will use them if they are staring at defeat
NATO will not go to all out war with Russia over Ukraine
Ukraine has lost, Russia is upping the ante to a place ukraine cannot go, no matter how brave they are
Putin will lay down his nuclear aces, and we will reluctantly agree to a brutal peace, where Russia keeps a large chunk of Ukraine. A freezing Cold War will follow. In that ensuing time Russia will train these soldiers and rearm them, in case he wants to have another go in the spring
Total bollocks. There’s 40m Ukranians, and they have almost unlimited supply lines so long as the west keeps the support coming. A weak Putin trying something stupid, will be met with a very hard, but likely conventional, response.
If Putin drops a nuke, you think we would escalate in response?
It’s an idea, I suppose
We'd have to, otherwise suddenly using nukes would be a normal part of war, proliferation would go nuts and the chance of any future conflict going nuclear would be massively increased. Hopefully the Chinese are alive to the dangers of supercharged nuclear proliferation, and will be joining the West in letting Russia know it isn't an option that will bring them any net benefit.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Why not keep your Santander account open with a balance of 1p? Their overheads for administering the account will ensure you are costing them money.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
A big Churchill problem was that he could not read a relief map so was forever sending troops to be mountaineers: Dardanelles; Dieppe; Italy to name but three. Also he had no understanding of logistics. The Americans eventually got tired of bailing us out and by the end of the war were talking almost exclusively to Uncle Joe.
The Dardanelles actually nearly worked. Twice.
A miss is as good as a mile.
What you mean is, having failed once, he tried again and failed again.
Actually no - the naval attack near worked. The landings also nearly worked. If either had been pressed forward ion the way that plenty of alternate generals/admirals on the spot would have done, the objective would have been achieved - control of access to the Black Sea.
A three-judge appeals court panel has granted the Justice Department’s request to block aspects of U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon’s ruling that delayed a criminal investigation into highly sensitive documents seized from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.
The panel ruled that Cannon, a Trump appointee, erred when she temporarily prevented federal prosecutors from using the roughly 100 documents — marked as classified – recovered from Trump’s estate as part of a criminal inquiry.
Trump “has not even attempted to show that he has a need to know the information contained in the classified documents,” the panel ruled in a 29-page decision. “Nor has he established that the current administration has waived that requirement for these documents.”
Two of the three judges on the panel, Andrew Brasher and Britt Grant, were appointed to the court by Trump. The third, Robin Rosenbaum, was appointed by President Barack Obama. In the unanimous decision, the judges declared it “self-evident” that the public interest favored allowing the Justice Department to determine whether any of the records were improperly disclosed, risking national security damage.
“For our part, we cannot discern why Plaintiff would have an individual interest in or need for any of the one-hundred documents with classification markings,” the appeals court wrote in an opinion that listed no individual judge as the author.
While Cannon speculated in her ruling that allowing investigators continued access to the documents could result in leaks of their contents, the appeals panel brushed aside that concern.
“Permitting the United States to retain the documents does not suggest that they will be released; indeed, a purpose of the United States’s efforts in investigating the recovered classified documents is to limit unauthorized disclosure of the information they contain,” the appeals judges wrote. “Not only that, but any authorized official who makes an improper disclosure risks her own criminal liability.”
he 11th Circuit’s rules appear to preclude any attempt to ask the full bench of that court to reconsider the government’s motion, but Trump could seek emergency relief from the Supreme Court.
Trump attorney Christopher Kise did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the ruling. . . .
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
Re: keys, maybe try using some sandpaper on them? That works sometimes.
That might get her summonsed for assault.
Oh sorry, did you mean use it on the keys?
What I find so immensely frustrating is that if I had done my job as incompetently as these bozos I'd have been out on my arse years ago. We put up with the second and third rate when really we should be giving these companies boots up their arses all day every day so that they DO THEIR FUCKING JOB instead of apologising all the time for their shit service.
Is this too much to ask?
And yes I've done the impeller thing and checked filters and all the other stuff but I am not going to spend the evening bailing water out of my spiteful dishwasher with a spoon.
I have to book a flight to Chicago and a hotel and that'll probably be another hour of misery and then I have to do some actual fee-paying work.
The only good thing that has happened to me this week is that my newly acquired American editor told me that I was a great communicator and writer and only made marginal edits to my article. And it's just as well she didn't speak to me today because the communication might have been rather too Anglo-Saxon even for her.
What is the fucking point of any of this anyway?
When you get to the Windy City, if possible give my regards to the Chicago Water Tower as you stroll down Michigan Ave.
@RALee85 "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said"
It's a well known fact that Presidents micromanaging military men always ends well.
I may be mistaken but I sense a hint of irony in your reply.
What are the worst examples of Presidents micromanaging generals would you say? There must be some absolute horror story examples.
Well, it may not be the most egregious of examples but in WW2 Churchill's micromanagement did not always work out spectacularly well. The wound my Dad picked up at Tobruk is a little testimony, very close to home.
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
{Antwerp has entered the chat. The Dardanelles has entered the chat. Norway has entered the chat…}
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
A big Churchill problem was that he could not read a relief map so was forever sending troops to be mountaineers: Dardanelles; Dieppe; Italy to name but three. Also he had no understanding of logistics. The Americans eventually got tired of bailing us out and by the end of the war were talking almost exclusively to Uncle Joe.
The Dardanelles actually nearly worked. Twice.
The good thing about Churchill is that he was down on attrition and big on innovation, from tanks to code-breaking. A lot of the infrastructure for our defence had been put in place under the much-maligned Chamberlain.
Chamberlain is something of a hero of mine. He knew exactly what he was doing. He knew exactly what Hitler was. And he sold his reputation to buy Britain another 12 months. And boy did he use it.
I presume that the idea that he bought time his own expense is expanded upon somewhere? (If so, I'd appreciate a link). I don't really buy it though.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
F13: likely to be a fault with the water softener or the hardness of the water in the machine
Google the error code *along with* the make and model. Then phone someone to come and fix it.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
OK - you know those people who suddenly flip. Well I've had that sort of day and am at that point where I need to be kept away from sharp objects.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
F13: likely to be a fault with the water softener or the hardness of the water in the machine
Is the Banham key one of the "modern style ones, with conical holes cut in a rectangular blank?
If so, when new, they can be slightly recalcitrant. The tolerances are quite tight in those locks.
Comments
Tobruk was pretty much indefensible at the time and Auchinleck knew it but the big man said it must be defended so......
2. There are two existing Cuadrilla wells in Lancashire that are viable. To cement those up (as there have been strong pushes to do) during a winter energy crisis, would be perverse in the extreme, would it not?
Switch them on, and see what can be got. If the Government is sensible, it will offer fracking licenses on the basis of all gas being sold domestically at below market rates (better than not being allowed to frack at all). Will it be enough to power a village? A small town? A big town? Who knows - it all helps.
PB has been warned of a forthcoming tidal wave of poverty and starvation, but still many of us oppose opening this avenue of supply, for the most spurious of reasons. So they obviously don't give that much of a crap about the shivering poor.
Bit cheaper to do when you only need a roof on it.
It is a massive hole already.
I think the fracking proposal (which will make minimal difference anyway) is like one of those flares chucked out of a Russian helicopter to distract the missiles, or a bone thrown 20m away so all the mad dogs go chasing it.
Meanwhile La Truss is getting on with core stuff whilst the maddos and saddos from all sides have a squabble over an irrelevance, and keep themselves out of the way.
Referenda says 98% of occupied territories want to be Russia
Russia floods said territories with draftees
When Ukraine inevitably kills draftees thats WAR that is, inside Russia with NATO weapons killing Russians.
So when you talk about mobilisation it isn't to militarily win the war - that seems very unlikely. Its to provoke escalation, where he gets to snarl about nukes and forces a hard ceasefire where he retains these smashed territories. So I think you could be right about a freezing cold war, but I'm not worried about nuclear fire because we won't unless there is no choice and then Russia becomes glass which isn't Putin's choice.
Phoney referendums used by Putin as an excuse to hold the Donbas. Grim stalemate through the winter.
Worsening morale within the Russian forces, leading to desertions and infighting.
By next summer something will break. Probably Russian unity.
This is someome who (allegedly) is think about a presidential run
https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1572970128245141505?t=MneTfEtgiRX94p5ECMx4_w&s=19
The US could disable the Russians ability to make War at all. Except for lobbing nukes around.
Yes, they have nukes. But they’ve also been found out as being totally shit in modern warfare
I saw a little about Ua running out of accommodation space, but have seen nothing detailed.
However the chances of him using a small nuke (or some other WMD) to freak us out in the meantime are quite high
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppyPEL_lijU
Churchill had a long history of military strategic ideas. I’m trying to think of one that worked….
It will more imo be new renewables that bail them out on the energy front, plus reductions in inflation.
And I am afraid reality is grim. It’s wishful thinking to believe Ukraine has got this won and Russia will retreat and accept defeat
This is going to grind on and Russia has a lot of resources, and a psycho at the top who will do anything to avoid the fate of Muammar Gadaffi
A failed attack would have been several times worse. That was what happened to the 54th Massachusetts Infantry Regiment at Fort Wagner, for example.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jFOw5jCYhH4&feature=share&si=EMSIkaIECMiOmarE6JChQQ
Plus they plundered the trainers from their own training units to reinforce the front, so there are relatively few people to train them.
And they will be poor quality as Russia does not do decent training of these type of servicemen, and they are relatively old.
And it will take months.
Cool flex if they did that.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/31/cuadrilla-allowed-to-delay-closure-of-lancashire-fracking-wells
Napoleon III's handling of the Sedan campaign was also imposingly inept.
Alan Brooke did more than many men for the allied cause. By telling Churchill no on the mad ideas and channeling his drive, he must have shortened the war by a good chunk.
Weird.
LAB: 40% (-4)
CON: 30% (=)
LDM: 13% (+3)
GRN: 8% (=)
Via
@IpsosUK
, 8-16 Sep.
Changes w/ 21-27 Jul.
Lord Fisher, the Baltic and the battle for British Grand Strategy 1914-15 | Andrew Lambert
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjVUV82EAAA
"In this presentation Professor Lambert talks about Admiral Sir Jacky Fisher's Baltic plans, which were far more complex, and sophisticated than the parody that Churchill published."
What you mean is, having failed once, he tried again and failed again.
1. His article actually welcomes the lifting of the ban. It just predicts that fracking will never become a big part of UK energy supply. So it doesn't support the arguments of those highlighting it.
2. 'He is currently the CEO and President of CanCambria Energy Corp, a private Vancouver based South American focused exploration company.' - it is good to hear from industry experts, but its also important to realise that their views will be coloured by their current experiences and roles. Not necessarily in the sense of consciously talking up their own book, but reflecting their current enthusiasms and ambitions. If we heard a big critique of Disneyland from the CEO of Alton Towers, we would want to take a variety of other views on board.
Not only has Santander fucked up my day so that tomorrow I have to go to a branch and see if there is someone there with an IQ in double fingers who can CLOSE MY ACCOUNT. But I also have to go to Banhams who have managed to make me some spare keys that don't open the front door.
And now my dishwasher has decided not to drain. So that'll be another expense and another wasted day.
The error code is F13.
F - fucking - 13.
That just about sums up life, these days.
An interesting day and we're getting an increasing sense of how this Government is going to be between now and the next election. It's a gamble but then all politics is to some degree. The fundamental is Truss and her cohorts think the only way they will get the Conservative vote is to convince people to feel better off and be optimistic about the short term prospects (after all, it doesn't matter how bad 2026 is if they are re-elected).
There's nothing wrong with that (just to placate @squareroot2) and it's true to say if the general mood is optimistic and confident, the Government of the day usually benefits (not always, just to annoy @squareroot2). The big problem the Conservatives have is the fact they have had 14 years leading the Government - will 2024 be 1992 redux? I'm not a huge believer in such symmetries to be honest.
In terms of fracking, I thought the process went something like this:
STAGE 1: Public Consultation - a gentle question. If there is no strong negative response, fracking can proceed.
STAGE 2: Public Engagement - JRM pushes a wheelbarrow full of used £20 notes down each person's front path. Once that happens, it's back to Stage 1 with the hope of a more "informed" outcome.
STAGE 3: The National Interest - if, after Stages 1 and 2, there is still huge local hostility to fracking, announce "it's in the national interest" and start fracking.
Put even more simply, it's ABI - Ask, Bribe, Ignore.
https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1572969458112544770?s=21&t=Mx3ZVPUU9PlLJB0jvbqXrg
Why are the LibDems such a bore?
Why are the Greens and Farageists such terrible mountebanks?
And dealing with your Lords, always a chore.
From Stormont to the Sennedd Hall, they'll lie as soon as draw a breath
Labour sell their mothers for a crown
Plaid Cymru live in bungalows and eat the bits between dogs toes
The SNP are thieves of wide renown.
These truths we hold, self evident and fancy free
Take heed now, for we'll only say it once.
All points of politics are filled with mediocrity
For politicians are a terrible bunch of [cut to the censorship card]
With apologies to Brabbins and Fife.
https://youtu.be/kL1zs4OKYAU
https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1572896455496704006
Oh sorry, did you mean use it on the keys?
Sorry to hear about your day.
A month of manual washing up, which takes forever.
Stripes - That's a Fact, Jack!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMjOLX_PSUM
I have decided I don't want to waste money repairing or replacing it so I now wash up by hand.
Which is fine for a person on his own, and certainly cheaper.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000183-60c5-da48-a3e3-e0e5115d0000
We can't just stand by and do nothing, or else Putin can nuke anyone else with impunity. Of course we would - and he needs to be in no doubt that we would too, to prevent him doing it.
And if we have made it clear we'd escalate, we'd need to follow through, or else we'd have no credibility.
Updated kitchen fire safety as well as dishwasher since!
Mobilisation presumably just doesn't mean boots on the ground but also increases armaments production to replace the lost ordinance so it's not just more men, it's more men with replacement equipment (probably no better than before).
Come next spring, assuming nothing happens in the interim, the Russians will try again with the aim (I would guess) of inflicting a decisive defeat on the Ukraine and forcing a political change in Kyiv to a more "friendly" Government who would then invite Russian forces in for a spell.
Washing up by hand is a domestic task I find thoroughly pleasurable.
Is this too much to ask?
And yes I've done the impeller thing and checked filters and all the other stuff but I am not going to spend the evening bailing water out of my spiteful dishwasher with a spoon.
I have to book a flight to Chicago and a hotel and that'll probably be another hour of misery and then I have to do some actual fee-paying work.
The only good thing that has happened to me this week is that my newly acquired American editor told me that I was a great communicator and writer and only made marginal edits to my article. And it's just as well she didn't speak to me today because the communication might have been rather too Anglo-Saxon even for her.
What is the fucking point of any of this anyway?
Edit: Trigger, his horse, has recently been spotted in the Finland border queue.
Hope your day gets better Cyclefree, but I agree with the advice that you can fix most problems with devices like dishwashers etc by following videos on Youtube if you find one for your model/brand and error code - and that could hopefully give you a sense of satisfaction. Good luck with that and the rest of your problems.
Politico.com - Trump suffers setback as appeals panel rejects Cannon ruling
The panel ruled that Judge Aileen Cannon erred.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/21/donald-trump-special-master-00058176
A three-judge appeals court panel has granted the Justice Department’s request to block aspects of U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon’s ruling that delayed a criminal investigation into highly sensitive documents seized from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.
The panel ruled that Cannon, a Trump appointee, erred when she temporarily prevented federal prosecutors from using the roughly 100 documents — marked as classified – recovered from Trump’s estate as part of a criminal inquiry.
Trump “has not even attempted to show that he has a need to know the information contained in the classified documents,” the panel ruled in a 29-page decision. “Nor has he established that the current administration has waived that requirement for these documents.”
Two of the three judges on the panel, Andrew Brasher and Britt Grant, were appointed to the court by Trump. The third, Robin Rosenbaum, was appointed by President Barack Obama. In the unanimous decision, the judges declared it “self-evident” that the public interest favored allowing the Justice Department to determine whether any of the records were improperly disclosed, risking national security damage.
“For our part, we cannot discern why Plaintiff would have an individual interest in or need for any of the one-hundred documents with classification markings,” the appeals court wrote in an opinion that listed no individual judge as the author.
While Cannon speculated in her ruling that allowing investigators continued access to the documents could result in leaks of their contents, the appeals panel brushed aside that concern.
“Permitting the United States to retain the documents does not suggest that they will be released; indeed, a purpose of the United States’s efforts in investigating the recovered classified documents is to limit unauthorized disclosure of the information they contain,” the appeals judges wrote. “Not only that, but any authorized official who makes an improper disclosure risks her own criminal liability.”
he 11th Circuit’s rules appear to preclude any attempt to ask the full bench of that court to reconsider the government’s motion, but Trump could seek emergency relief from the Supreme Court.
Trump attorney Christopher Kise did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the ruling. . . .
He knew exactly what he was doing. He knew exactly what Hitler was. And he sold his reputation to buy Britain another 12 months. And boy did he use it.
Anzio says "Ciao"! And Leros says "Χαίρετε!" Actually no - the naval attack near worked. The landings also nearly worked. If either had been pressed forward ion the way that plenty of alternate generals/admirals on the spot would have done, the objective would have been achieved - control of access to the Black Sea.
If it wasn't, then life in the PRU must be even grimmer than I released
Hope it's going OK.
Only way to be sure.
Turns out the note didnt say HMQ was dead and LOTO not made aware of the fact of it till shortly before 6.30pm.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
If so, when new, they can be slightly recalcitrant. The tolerances are quite tight in those locks.