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Starmer v Truss – the first PMQs – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Reading this BBC piece on Donelan it says we have now had 11 culture secretaries in 10 years. Given Cameron tended to keep people in position, then even with the May and Boris reshuffle mania I'm thinking it may be a record turnover for a senior post. In the last 7 years a year in post is not unusual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-62818785

    Since the 2010 GE as follows (skewed by lots of people in post since July then changed) (includes legacy departments as wiki includes them - eg, Trade created in 2016, previous holders counted under business)

    PM - 4
    Chancellor - 6
    Foreign Secretary - 7
    Home Secretary - 5
    Health - 6
    Justice - 9
    Lancaster - 9
    Defence - 6
    DLUHC - 8
    Business and Energy - 8
    Trade - 4 (since 2016)
    Work and Pensions - 8
    Education - 9 (including the 2 days of Donelan)
    Defra - 8
    Transport - 6
    Culture - 11
    Northern Ireland - 8
    Wales - 6
    Scotland - 4
    Leader of House - 10
    Leader of Lords - 5
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    I doubt anyone cares about the cabinets religions, just that they prove good at their job , though JRM is the one appointment pretty well universal condemned and frankly an unnecessary own goal by Truss
    It certainly wasn't condemned by the ERG, without whose backing Truss would not have got to the final 2 and membership vote and become leader
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I've just watched one of Owen Jones's latest missives on Twitter (the one posted two days ago). And, my goodness, can someone send for the RNLI? He's drowning in salty, salty tears.

    Here's an idea for him: if he's so irate, then stand for election for Labour. Then he might actually do something for people.

    He wouldn't get on a shortlist under Starmer.
    Well he won't now, will he!

    Screeching "You're a liar!!!!" at the party leader (whilst backtracking from your comments ("Hey, I shop at Waitrose" and "He knows me, but we've only met a few times aside from one of my best mates who works for him" etc etc) will not enamour him to the saner parts of the party.
    Well he's disappointed that socialism* looks off the table.

    Fwiw I reckon Keir is doing double bluff. He projected Left to get the Leader gig, now projects Centre to get the bigger gig of PM, then - if my sense is right - he will shift back Left in office.

    * by which I mean some 'left' radicalism not a return to Clause 4.
    That concern might well be the reason he won't get the centre ground voter. I quite like him, but the rest of the Labour party is full of more fruitcakes than the Tories are.
    Ok. But to be clear - by 'shift back Left' I don't mean to anything resembling the previous JC platform. I just mean he'll get in, keep it solid for a while, kind of bed himself and Labour into the public mind as "yep, these guys are ok", and then over time some fairly interesting - radical even - policies will start to arrive, maybe with a good 2nd term majority having spent a truncated 1st term with a small one or in a pact with others. Think that's the SKS plan. If you could get into his head I think that is what you'd see.
    As I say, that is what many centrist voters will be concerned about. Liz Truss is correct in saying people like to keep the money they have earned. Hosing taxpayers money at trade union dominated vanity schemes in the public sector and heavily taxing middle earners to achieve it is what those of us who are Labour-sceptic hesitate over voting for them about. I hope if he is elected he governs in the same centre ground that he presents himself when asking the electorate for their endorsement
    We've got to get a bit of socialism from a Labour government, Nigel. Be reasonable now.
    Socialism is an essentially negative and damaging ideology. Social democracy is fine, and often welcome to redress the excesses of unfettered capitalism. If he gives us reasonable social democracy then I can live with that.
    Very difficult to define where one ends and the other begins, however. Brazil did relatively well under Lula, for instance, both on strong social indicators, and, broadly, on its economy. Was that socialism, or social democracy ? You could ask the same of what is the NHS ?
    The NHS is an example of socialism, and it is why it really ISN'T the envy of the world.
    Question is, are voters prepared to even entertain a debate about a different system?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    So it's ideal for a managed deleveraging of UK households.
    I admire your ability to look on the bright side.

    But how is this managed deleveraging supposed to work? If lots of people seek to sell their homes at the same time, while buyers dry up due to higher interest rates, then that doesn't sound that great for the UK economy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    I prefer to think of him as 'BLM have a point' Steve Baker, since it shows he's more nuanced than thought.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I've just watched one of Owen Jones's latest missives on Twitter (the one posted two days ago). And, my goodness, can someone send for the RNLI? He's drowning in salty, salty tears.

    Here's an idea for him: if he's so irate, then stand for election for Labour. Then he might actually do something for people.

    He wouldn't get on a shortlist under Starmer.
    Well he won't now, will he!

    Screeching "You're a liar!!!!" at the party leader (whilst backtracking from your comments ("Hey, I shop at Waitrose" and "He knows me, but we've only met a few times aside from one of my best mates who works for him" etc etc) will not enamour him to the saner parts of the party.
    Well he's disappointed that socialism* looks off the table.

    Fwiw I reckon Keir is doing double bluff. He projected Left to get the Leader gig, now projects Centre to get the bigger gig of PM, then - if my sense is right - he will shift back Left in office.

    * by which I mean some 'left' radicalism not a return to Clause 4.
    That concern might well be the reason he won't get the centre ground voter. I quite like him, but the rest of the Labour party is full of more fruitcakes than the Tories are.
    Ok. But to be clear - by 'shift back Left' I don't mean to anything resembling the previous JC platform. I just mean he'll get in, keep it solid for a while, kind of bed himself and Labour into the public mind as "yep, these guys are ok", and then over time some fairly interesting - radical even - policies will start to arrive, maybe with a good 2nd term majority having spent a truncated 1st term with a small one or in a pact with others. Think that's the SKS plan. If you could get into his head I think that is what you'd see.
    As I say, that is what many centrist voters will be concerned about. Liz Truss is correct in saying people like to keep the money they have earned. Hosing taxpayers money at trade union dominated vanity schemes in the public sector and heavily taxing middle earners to achieve it is what those of us who are Labour-sceptic hesitate over voting for them about. I hope if he is elected he governs in the same centre ground that he presents himself when asking the electorate for their endorsement
    We've got to get a bit of socialism from a Labour government, Nigel. Be reasonable now.
    Socialism is an essentially negative and damaging ideology. Social democracy is fine, and often welcome to redress the excesses of unfettered capitalism. If he gives us reasonable social democracy then I can live with that.
    That's a deal. The boundaries of "social democracy" are wide enough to work with, I think.
    Given state spending as a percentage of gdp reached 51% in 2020, arguably we have been social democratic already
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    I doubt anyone cares about the cabinets religions, just that they prove good at their job , though JRM is the one appointment pretty well universal condemned and frankly an unnecessary own goal by Truss
    It certainly wasn't condemned by the ERG, without whose backing Truss would not have got to the final 2 and membership vote and become leader
    You simply do not understand public perception of JRM who is an anachronism
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    I doubt anyone cares about the cabinets religions, just that they prove good at their job , though JRM is the one appointment pretty well universal condemned and frankly an unnecessary own goal by Truss
    Well I do because it leads to bigoted idiots messing about with NI abortion laws (because they would love to Roe v Wade the mainland but feel that is out of reach atm)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    I doubt anyone cares about the cabinets religions, just that they prove good at their job , though JRM is the one appointment pretty well universal condemned and frankly an unnecessary own goal by Truss
    It certainly wasn't condemned by the ERG, without whose backing Truss would not have got to the final 2 and membership vote and become leader
    You simply do not understand public perception of JRM who is an anachronism
    The right love JRM as much as the left love Corbyn, even if the centre aren't keen on either
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    So it's ideal for a managed deleveraging of UK households.
    I admire your ability to look on the bright side.

    But how is this managed deleveraging supposed to work? If lots of people seek to sell their homes at the same time, while buyers dry up due to higher interest rates, then that doesn't sound that great for the UK economy.
    Is it a good thing for the economy if the same people are overextended on credit and underconsuming? There will always be people who lose out when a bubble pops, but that doesn't mean it's better to keep it inflated forever.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,307
    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Commission's energy plan:

    *Capping price of Russian gas;
    *Ceiling on "enormous" revenues of renewables and nuclear;
    *Windfall tax on oil and gas cos;
    *Mandatory 5% savings in electricity use in peak hours

    Complex, sometimes controversial, tbc...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/07/eu-sets-out-plans-for-windfall-taxes-and-power-savings-amid-energy-crisis?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something we would be obliged to go along with if we were still a member. ..??

    Don't like our energy policy? tough.

    Its been agreed at the EU level. Even if you voted for an alternative it would be the devils own job to change it.

    I hope the EU are ready for Russia to switch of gas for months, even longer
    The EU are as woefully unprepared for whats coming as we are im afraid. '5% savings in peak hours' - dont go heating your home when you, you know, come home
    German gas usage was down 14.7% in the first half of 2022, and they've managed to fill their storage to 85% of peak levels. They've also managed to pay the Norwegians extra, so that the Norwegians don't reinject natural gas into their oil wells, so they have more to export to Germany.

    But here's the thing: both the UK and Germany basically pay the world price for gas they import. So, the amount of pain we feel, and the amount they feel is basically the same.
    Part of me wonders whether there was any point in us avoiding dependence on Russian gas.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Pay less stamp duty, another benefit!

    Of course it is going to be painful. It is also painful for holders of crypto when bitcoin plummets from $50k to $10k, but thats market forces. We don't expect the government to bail them all out at the expense of creating a zombie economy for everyone else.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    I doubt anyone cares about the cabinets religions, just that they prove good at their job , though JRM is the one appointment pretty well universal condemned and frankly an unnecessary own goal by Truss
    Well I do because it leads to bigoted idiots messing about with NI abortion laws (because they would love to Roe v Wade the mainland but feel that is out of reach atm)
    Well I hope not to be fair
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    I doubt anyone cares about the cabinets religions, just that they prove good at their job , though JRM is the one appointment pretty well universal condemned and frankly an unnecessary own goal by Truss
    It certainly wasn't condemned by the ERG, without whose backing Truss would not have got to the final 2 and membership vote and become leader
    You simply do not understand public perception of JRM who is an anachronism
    The right love JRM as much as the left love Corbyn, even if the centre aren't keen on either
    I cannot tell whether you think the comparison with Corbyn means it is a good thing he is beloved. Because it shouldn't be, it blinded them to his faults.

    And even if he is, and I'm sure he is popular, Truss herself is popular enough that she doesn't need him. Intentionally or otherwise he's going to be a distraction when he pretends he knows something he knows nothing about and thinks a posh voice makes it true.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    So it's ideal for a managed deleveraging of UK households.
    I admire your ability to look on the bright side.

    But how is this managed deleveraging supposed to work? If lots of people seek to sell their homes at the same time, while buyers dry up due to higher interest rates, then that doesn't sound that great for the UK economy.
    It could lead to a long overdue correction in prices.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    Before we go too far down this, er, avenue, remember that PB has predicted 167 of the last zero property crashes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited September 2022
    You don't say (In fairness, popular in general and popular 'near me' is often a different thing)

    I've said again and again that solar and onshore wind are massively popular, and it's baffling that the govt thinks there's a great Nimby backlash waiting.

    Now, new polling from @Survation for @RenewableUK shows that, er, solar and onshore wind are massively popular.


    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1567441954752847874?cxt=HHwWhICz8eaJ1sArAAAA
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Commission's energy plan:

    *Capping price of Russian gas;
    *Ceiling on "enormous" revenues of renewables and nuclear;
    *Windfall tax on oil and gas cos;
    *Mandatory 5% savings in electricity use in peak hours

    Complex, sometimes controversial, tbc...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/07/eu-sets-out-plans-for-windfall-taxes-and-power-savings-amid-energy-crisis?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something we would be obliged to go along with if we were still a member. ..??

    Don't like our energy policy? tough.

    Its been agreed at the EU level. Even if you voted for an alternative it would be the devils own job to change it.

    I hope the EU are ready for Russia to switch of gas for months, even longer
    The EU are as woefully unprepared for whats coming as we are im afraid. '5% savings in peak hours' - dont go heating your home when you, you know, come home
    German gas usage was down 14.7% in the first half of 2022, and they've managed to fill their storage to 85% of peak levels. They've also managed to pay the Norwegians extra, so that the Norwegians don't reinject natural gas into their oil wells, so they have more to export to Germany.

    But here's the thing: both the UK and Germany basically pay the world price for gas they import. So, the amount of pain we feel, and the amount they feel is basically the same.
    Part of me wonders whether there was any point in us avoiding dependence on Russian gas.
    Avoiding dependence on Russian gas is only really effective if you have long-term fixed price contracts with other suppliers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    I prefer to think of him as 'BLM have a point' Steve Baker, since it shows he's more nuanced than thought.
    Indeed. I have a great deal of time for Steve Baker even though I don't by any means agree with all his positions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    I prefer to think of him as 'BLM have a point' Steve Baker, since it shows he's more nuanced than thought.
    Indeed. I have a great deal of time for Steve Baker even though I don't by any means agree with all his positions.
    He seems to have been genuine in his principles to the point of being a serial rebel, so it will be interesting to see him take up a government post and how long he can stand that. But in fairness, even in jest describing himself as Brexit Hardman makes it hard to see anything else.
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    So "technically" young people are only richer if they are poor whilst their parents are rich? No wonder the modern world has a lot of problems that are only explained as "technical issues".
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    I prefer to think of him as 'BLM have a point' Steve Baker, since it shows he's more nuanced than thought.
    Indeed. I have a great deal of time for Steve Baker even though I don't by any means agree with all his positions.
    Strikes me as a bright, thoughtful and decent guy even though I disagree with him on almost everything
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    I prefer to think of him as 'BLM have a point' Steve Baker, since it shows he's more nuanced than thought.
    Indeed. I have a great deal of time for Steve Baker even though I don't by any means agree with all his positions.
    I have a great deal of time for him too - about 20y in one of HMQs prisons.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Great, but house prices in the abstract are meaningless. The equation to be solved by the young is house price minus deposit times interest rate (which ex hypothesi has rocketed). It's only cash rich oldies looking for a second home for whom it's an unqualified good.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,222
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    If prices are lower then lenders won't need to still lend the same amount. Nor would people require inheritances which should never be in anyone's fiscal planning, people should be able to work for their own living.
  • MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,658
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Commission's energy plan:

    *Capping price of Russian gas;
    *Ceiling on "enormous" revenues of renewables and nuclear;
    *Windfall tax on oil and gas cos;
    *Mandatory 5% savings in electricity use in peak hours

    Complex, sometimes controversial, tbc...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/07/eu-sets-out-plans-for-windfall-taxes-and-power-savings-amid-energy-crisis?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something we would be obliged to go along with if we were still a member. ..??

    Don't like our energy policy? tough.

    Its been agreed at the EU level. Even if you voted for an alternative it would be the devils own job to change it.

    I hope the EU are ready for Russia to switch of gas for months, even longer
    The EU are as woefully unprepared for whats coming as we are im afraid. '5% savings in peak hours' - dont go heating your home when you, you know, come home
    German gas usage was down 14.7% in the first half of 2022, and they've managed to fill their storage to 85% of peak levels. They've also managed to pay the Norwegians extra, so that the Norwegians don't reinject natural gas into their oil wells, so they have more to export to Germany.

    But here's the thing: both the UK and Germany basically pay the world price for gas they import. So, the amount of pain we feel, and the amount they feel is basically the same.
    Part of me wonders whether there was any point in us avoiding dependence on Russian gas.
    Avoiding dependence on Russian gas is only
    really effective if you have long-term fixed price contracts with other suppliers.
    The smart move would have been to avoid dependence on gas full stop. As France has done with its massive nuclear investment and electrified economy.
  • It is so kind of those with lots of housing wealth to be generously concerned with helping those without it by keeping property prices artificially high with low interest rates. Almost too kind......
  • rcs1000 said:

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.

    All things being equal, anyone who wants to trade up benefits from falling prices, even if they lose equity in their current property.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,672
    I think Wendy Morton is the first woman to be Chief Whip in a Conservative government. But she is the second Wendy to be a Chief Whip in the House of Commons. The first was Wendy Chamberlain for the Lib Dems.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Is there any difference between 'windfall inheritors' and plain old 'inheritors'?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    I doubt anyone cares about the cabinets religions, just that they prove good at their job , though JRM is the one appointment pretty well universal condemned and frankly an unnecessary own goal by Truss
    It certainly wasn't condemned by the ERG, without whose backing Truss would not have got to the final 2 and membership vote and become leader
    You simply do not understand public perception of JRM who is an anachronism
    Doesn't matter if the GBP think JRM is NBG.

    No JRM, no ERG.

    And no ERG, no PMT.

    TTFN.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Shouldn't be. Assume first child at 30 (which is late even now), one at 32, one at 34. If the middle child represents the average the second (later to die) parent is carking it on average at 79, which is young for the sort of demographic which has stuff to inherit.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Commission's energy plan:

    *Capping price of Russian gas;
    *Ceiling on "enormous" revenues of renewables and nuclear;
    *Windfall tax on oil and gas cos;
    *Mandatory 5% savings in electricity use in peak hours

    Complex, sometimes controversial, tbc...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/07/eu-sets-out-plans-for-windfall-taxes-and-power-savings-amid-energy-crisis?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something we would be obliged to go along with if we were still a member. ..??

    Don't like our energy policy? tough.

    Its been agreed at the EU level. Even if you voted for an alternative it would be the devils own job to change it.

    I hope the EU are ready for Russia to switch of gas for months, even longer
    The EU are as woefully unprepared for whats coming as we are im afraid. '5% savings in peak hours' - dont go heating your home when you, you know, come home
    German gas usage was down 14.7% in the first half of 2022, and they've managed to fill their storage to 85% of peak levels. They've also managed to pay the Norwegians extra, so that the Norwegians don't reinject natural gas into their oil wells, so they have more to export to Germany.

    But here's the thing: both the UK and Germany basically pay the world price for gas they import. So, the amount of pain we feel, and the amount they feel is basically the same.
    Part of me wonders whether there was any point in us avoiding dependence on Russian gas.
    Avoiding dependence on Russian gas is only really effective if you have long-term fixed price contracts with other suppliers.
    Or you have sufficient supplies of your own and break the international price link.
  • MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    People need a home and a living when they are young parents and every working couple should be able to afford their own home and to bring up children.

    Not wait until they're grandparents already and the great grandparents die so they can inherit something supposedly.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    And voters aged 45 to 60 are now the key swing voters not the young who are generally Labour and not the old who are generally Tory
  • IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Shouldn't be. Assume first child at 30 (which is late even now), one at 32, one at 34. If the middle child represents the average the second (later to die) parent is carking it on average at 79, which is young for the sort of demographic which has stuff to inherit.
    I am just quoting what the supposed experts say. It takes a second to google it and it is quoted very widely.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Orxy, have bump there number of Russian tanks up b 9 in the last hour or so.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with a social crisis, and the omens so far are not good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be setting off alarm bells in Washington.
    She's certainly most of the soft under-bellies.
  • Statmer wasn't great. He never is. I didn't think Truss would be much good either but she was better than Johnson.
  • Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Is there any difference between 'windfall inheritors' and plain old 'inheritors'?
    I assume almost everyone inherits something even if it is just Mum's old slippers. I suspect they are talking about those who inherit a significant windfall - valuable house etc.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,631
    Just watched PMQ’s

    To my surprise Truss did fine. Even good. Direct, lucid, calm yet abrasive when needed. Starmer was his dull old self

    Hmmm. She might not be the disaster I expected. She has a plan. She’s gonna do it
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited September 2022
    Truss's cabinet is so diverse the Labour shadow womens and equalities minister has quit!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    If prices are lower then lenders won't need to still lend the same amount. Nor would people require inheritances which should never be in anyone's fiscal planning, people should be able to work for their own living.
    If there is a recession lenders may not lend as much as borrowers are more a risk. Average wages have barely risen for a decade, far more people benefit from an inheritance than from big annual rises in income and wages, which mainly go to finance workers in the City and the boards of the largest companies and Premiership footballers and a few very successful entrepreneurs
  • Ooooh, the new Apple Watch will be able to detect if you've been in a car crash.

    I can confirm the fall detection works.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    Just watched PMQ’s

    To my surprise Truss did fine. Even good. Direct, lucid, calm yet abrasive when needed. Starmer was his dull old self

    Hmmm. She might not be the disaster I expected. She has a plan. She’s gonna do it

    True. It's a mad plan, but it's clear. She means more of what she says than Johnson, it's just a shame so much of it is so entirely fruiter-loopy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    It was thanks to Coffey UC was sustained and did not collapse through the pandemic. She also believes in traditional family values
  • IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Great, but house prices in the abstract are meaningless. The equation to be solved by the young is house price minus deposit times interest rate (which ex hypothesi has rocketed). It's only cash rich oldies looking for a second home for whom it's an unqualified good.
    I do always return to my long held belief that a house should not be an investment, it should be a place to live. Unfortunately successive governments have done such huge damage to the pensions system that people have turned to property as a more reliable means of saving for retirement etc. I don't in any way blame the individuals, the fault lies with the system that allows this to happen and makes it necessary for so many.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,791

    Ooooh, the new Apple Watch will be able to detect if you've been in a car crash.

    I can confirm the fall detection works.

    My Garmin watch and Android phone do this too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
  • Ooooh, the new Apple Watch will be able to detect if you've been in a car crash.

    I can confirm the fall detection works.

    It tells Americans when autumn has arrived?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Is there any difference between 'windfall inheritors' and plain old 'inheritors'?
    I assume almost everyone inherits something even if it is just Mum's old slippers. I suspect they are talking about those who inherit a significant windfall - valuable house etc.
    But you used the phrase, so I was asking you. It doesn't matter if they're the same, but I'd like to know if you think there are distinctions.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Is there any difference between 'windfall inheritors' and plain old 'inheritors'?
    I assume almost everyone inherits something even if it is just Mum's old slippers. I suspect they are talking about those who inherit a significant windfall - valuable house etc.
    But you used the phrase, so I was asking you. It doesn't matter if they're the same, but I'd like to know if you think there are distinctions.
    Apologies. I used the phrase because that is how it is described in all the articles I looked at about it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited September 2022

    Ooooh, the new Apple Watch will be able to detect if you've been in a car crash.

    I can confirm the fall detection works.

    Yes, it started a week ago (or in 2 weeks time, selon various addlepates).

    generally when I crash a car the fewer electronic things are in on the secret the happier I am.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
    Traditional marriage and not abortion on demand
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Great, but house prices in the abstract are meaningless. The equation to be solved by the young is house price minus deposit times interest rate (which ex hypothesi has rocketed). It's only cash rich oldies looking for a second home for whom it's an unqualified good.
    I do always return to my long held belief that a house should not be an investment, it should be a place to live. Unfortunately successive governments have done such huge damage to the pensions system that people have turned to property as a more reliable means of saving for retirement etc. I don't in any way blame the individuals, the fault lies with the system that allows this to happen and makes it necessary for so many.
    We do at least have compulsory workplace pension enrolment now
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
    That it's surprising Coffey's taken on a post under Truss, given the latter's, ummmm, interesting career in that regard?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
    Traditional marriage and not abortion on demand
    Don't be mealy mouthed. Traditional = no pooftahs.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    It was thanks to Coffey UC was sustained and did not collapse through the pandemic. She also believes in traditional family values
    She backed the catastrophic cancellation of the uplift. When the Legatum Institute know that was a mistake, one knows it was a mistake.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
    She has a long list of the sorts of people she hates but can't tell anyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
    She has a long list of the sorts of people she hates but can't tell anyone.
    All she has to say is 'there is no Rule 6' and we'll all get the message.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,137
    slade said:

    I think Wendy Morton is the first woman to be Chief Whip in a Conservative government. But she is the second Wendy to be a Chief Whip in the House of Commons. The first was Wendy Chamberlain for the Lib Dems.

    Hilary Armstrong was appointed Labour’s Chief Whip in 2001 in Blair’s government.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Is there any difference between 'windfall inheritors' and plain old 'inheritors'?
    I assume almost everyone inherits something even if it is just Mum's old slippers. I suspect they are talking about those who inherit a significant windfall - valuable house etc.
    But you used the phrase, so I was asking you. It doesn't matter if they're the same, but I'd like to know if you think there are distinctions.
    Apologies. I used the phrase because that is how it is described in all the articles I looked at about it.
    Apologies are clearly not required, you're usually a model of clarity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    JohnO said:

    slade said:

    I think Wendy Morton is the first woman to be Chief Whip in a Conservative government. But she is the second Wendy to be a Chief Whip in the House of Commons. The first was Wendy Chamberlain for the Lib Dems.

    Hilary Armstrong was appointed Labour’s Chief Whip in 2001 in Blair’s government.
    I never thought you'd subscribe to the 'Blair was a Conservative' meme, John!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    Responses to PMQ’s never cease to be a prime example of confirmation bias.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    DougSeal said:

    Responses to PMQ’s never cease to be a prime example of confirmation bias.

    Well, not in my case, at least. I think her agenda is mad but found her directness to be refreshing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    rcs1000 said:

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.

    All things being equal, anyone who wants to trade up benefits from falling prices, even if they lose equity in their current property.
    Yes.

    And no.

    Let's say you bought a house for 200,000 with a 10% deposit.

    Prices rise 50%, so your house is worth 300,000, and you now want to sell and buy a house for 400,000.

    You pay back your 180,000 mortgage, and have a 120,000 deposit for your new home.

    Of course, you'll need to pay stamp duty of - say - 20,000. So, all in all, you end up borrowing 300,000 to buy a 400,000 home.

    Now imagine that prices haven't moved. The good news is that the property you're looking to buy is now only 267,000.

    You pay off your mortgage, leaving you with 20,000. But that stamp duty now takes 13,000 of your equity, leaving you with just 7,000.

    Will the bank lend you the money now?
  • BigRich said:

    Orxy, have bump there number of Russian tanks up b 9 in the last hour or so.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    There are lots of videos of surrendering Russian troops on Twitter and elsewhere. I hope that's a real impression of what's going on, as the poor sods surrendering on mass is probably best for everyone.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,137
    ydoethur said:

    JohnO said:

    slade said:

    I think Wendy Morton is the first woman to be Chief Whip in a Conservative government. But she is the second Wendy to be a Chief Whip in the House of Commons. The first was Wendy Chamberlain for the Lib Dems.

    Hilary Armstrong was appointed Labour’s Chief Whip in 2001 in Blair’s government.
    I never thought you'd subscribe to the 'Blair was a Conservative' meme, John!
    My mistake - Slade was talking about Wendys in the House.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,076
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.

    All things being equal, anyone who wants to trade up benefits from falling prices, even if they lose equity in their current property.
    Yes.

    And no.

    Let's say you bought a house for 200,000 with a 10% deposit.

    Prices rise 50%, so your house is worth 300,000, and you now want to sell and buy a house for 400,000.

    You pay back your 180,000 mortgage, and have a 120,000 deposit for your new home.

    Of course, you'll need to pay stamp duty of - say - 20,000. So, all in all, you end up borrowing 300,000 to buy a 400,000 home.

    Now imagine that prices haven't moved. The good news is that the property you're looking to buy is now only 267,000.

    You pay off your mortgage, leaving you with 20,000. But that stamp duty now takes 13,000 of your equity, leaving you with just 7,000.

    Will the bank lend you the money now?
    When that happened in Northern Ireland circa 2010-13 - Banks did albeit at a slightly higher rate...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Shouldn't be. Assume first child at 30 (which is late even now), one at 32, one at 34. If the middle child represents the average the second (later to die) parent is carking it on average at 79, which is young for the sort of demographic which has stuff to inherit.
    I am just quoting what the supposed experts say. It takes a second to google it and it is quoted very widely.
    It is, but here's an alternative 61 which seems much more likely to me

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-6334045/Longing-big-inheritance-wait-bit-average-age-inheritance-61-years.html

    The 61 number comes from the ONS. 47, from "research from equity release adviser Key"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-9973249/Over-11m-Britons-received-inheritance-windfall-past-decade.html

    Draw your own conclusions.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Commission's energy plan:

    *Capping price of Russian gas;
    *Ceiling on "enormous" revenues of renewables and nuclear;
    *Windfall tax on oil and gas cos;
    *Mandatory 5% savings in electricity use in peak hours

    Complex, sometimes controversial, tbc...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/07/eu-sets-out-plans-for-windfall-taxes-and-power-savings-amid-energy-crisis?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Something we would be obliged to go along with if we were still a member. ..??

    Don't like our energy policy? tough.

    Its been agreed at the EU level. Even if you voted for an alternative it would be the devils own job to change it.

    I hope the EU are ready for Russia to switch of gas for months, even longer
    The EU are as woefully unprepared for whats coming as we are im afraid. '5% savings in peak hours' - dont go heating your home when you, you know, come home
    German gas usage was down 14.7% in the first half of 2022, and they've managed to fill their storage to 85% of peak levels. They've also managed to pay the Norwegians extra, so that the Norwegians don't reinject natural gas into their oil wells, so they have more to export to Germany.

    But here's the thing: both the UK and Germany basically pay the world price for gas they import. So, the amount of pain we feel, and the amount they feel is basically the same.
    Part of me wonders whether there was any point in us avoiding dependence on Russian gas.
    Avoiding dependence on Russian gas is only really effective if you have long-term fixed price contracts with other suppliers.
    Or you have sufficient supplies of your own and break the international price link.
    Even that only works if you don't have export capability, and/or if you have a requirement to supply the local market at a discount rate.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.

    All things being equal, anyone who wants to trade up benefits from falling prices, even if they lose equity in their current property.
    Yes.

    And no.

    Let's say you bought a house for 200,000 with a 10% deposit.

    Prices rise 50%, so your house is worth 300,000, and you now want to sell and buy a house for 400,000.

    You pay back your 180,000 mortgage, and have a 120,000 deposit for your new home.

    Of course, you'll need to pay stamp duty of - say - 20,000. So, all in all, you end up borrowing 300,000 to buy a 400,000 home.

    Now imagine that prices haven't moved. The good news is that the property you're looking to buy is now only 267,000.

    You pay off your mortgage, leaving you with 20,000. But that stamp duty now takes 13,000 of your equity, leaving you with just 7,000.

    Will the bank lend you the money now?
    If they won't lend the typical buyer money then two things happen. Prices fall further and sales stall. It wont take long for either the price to fall to the level that fits the typical buyer or banks to start lending again.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574

    DougSeal said:

    Responses to PMQ’s never cease to be a prime example of confirmation bias.

    Well, not in my case, at least. I think her agenda is mad but think her directness was refreshing.
    The whole occaision was refreshing in that it was a reset.

    Truss's agenda is both good and mad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Great, but house prices in the abstract are meaningless. The equation to be solved by the young is house price minus deposit times interest rate (which ex hypothesi has rocketed). It's only cash rich oldies looking for a second home for whom it's an unqualified good.
    I do always return to my long held belief that a house should not be an investment, it should be a place to live. Unfortunately successive governments have done such huge damage to the pensions system that people have turned to property as a more reliable means of saving for retirement etc. I don't in any way blame the individuals, the fault lies with the system that allows this to happen and makes it necessary for so many.
    Spot on.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.

    All things being equal, anyone who wants to trade up benefits from falling prices, even if they lose equity in their current property.
    Yes.

    And no.

    Let's say you bought a house for 200,000 with a 10% deposit.

    Prices rise 50%, so your house is worth 300,000, and you now want to sell and buy a house for 400,000.

    You pay back your 180,000 mortgage, and have a 120,000 deposit for your new home.

    Of course, you'll need to pay stamp duty of - say - 20,000. So, all in all, you end up borrowing 300,000 to buy a 400,000 home.

    Now imagine that prices haven't moved. The good news is that the property you're looking to buy is now only 267,000.

    You pay off your mortgage, leaving you with 20,000. But that stamp duty now takes 13,000 of your equity, leaving you with just 7,000.

    Will the bank lend you the money now?
    Though after years of paying down a mortgage you should have more than 10% equity in your first home.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
    Traditional marriage and not abortion on demand
    Is that really all the values 'traditional family' values entailed? Pretty brief.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Shouldn't be. Assume first child at 30 (which is late even now), one at 32, one at 34. If the middle child represents the average the second (later to die) parent is carking it on average at 79, which is young for the sort of demographic which has stuff to inherit.
    I am just quoting what the supposed experts say. It takes a second to google it and it is quoted very widely.
    It is, but here's an alternative 61 which seems much more likely to me

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-6334045/Longing-big-inheritance-wait-bit-average-age-inheritance-61-years.html

    The 61 number comes from the ONS. 47, from "research from equity release adviser Key"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-9973249/Over-11m-Britons-received-inheritance-windfall-past-decade.html

    Draw your own conclusions.
    Though that also says those under 45 were the group most likely to receive a family cash gift for a deposit etc
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    @HYUFD traditional family values like abortion by demand in the backstreets by coat hanger?
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
    Traditional marriage and not abortion on demand
    God does NOT believe in traditional marriage. He NEVER married the mother of His only begotten son.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.

    All things being equal, anyone who wants to trade up benefits from falling prices, even if they lose equity in their current property.
    Yes.

    And no.

    Let's say you bought a house for 200,000 with a 10% deposit.

    Prices rise 50%, so your house is worth 300,000, and you now want to sell and buy a house for 400,000.

    You pay back your 180,000 mortgage, and have a 120,000 deposit for your new home.

    Of course, you'll need to pay stamp duty of - say - 20,000. So, all in all, you end up borrowing 300,000 to buy a 400,000 home.

    Now imagine that prices haven't moved. The good news is that the property you're looking to buy is now only 267,000.

    You pay off your mortgage, leaving you with 20,000. But that stamp duty now takes 13,000 of your equity, leaving you with just 7,000.

    Will the bank lend you the money now?
    If they won't lend the typical buyer money then two things happen. Prices fall further and sales stall. It wont take long for either the price to fall to the level that fits the typical buyer or banks to start lending again.
    You say it won't take long, but house price corrections (and we need to have a house price correction) will have significant broad economic effects.

    People will be trapped in negative equity, and that will result in lower labour mobility, because people won't be able to sell. This also means that the housing market may be less liquid than it should be.

    Banks will also tighten lending standards, because of rising losses.

    And people who thought they had lots of equity tied up in their home will instead raise their personal savings rate to compensate. Look at Spain in the 2010 to 2012 period to see the short- to medium-term economic consequences of a rising savings rate driven by reduced home prices.

    That's the problem with allowing an asset class to get mispriced: unwinding it is often very expensive and difficult.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    edited September 2022

    @HYUFD traditional family values like abortion by demand in the backstreets by coat hanger?

    Coffey wants a reduction in the abortion time limit she has not said she would ban it completely
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.

    All things being equal, anyone who wants to trade up benefits from falling prices, even if they lose equity in their current property.
    Yes.

    And no.

    Let's say you bought a house for 200,000 with a 10% deposit.

    Prices rise 50%, so your house is worth 300,000, and you now want to sell and buy a house for 400,000.

    You pay back your 180,000 mortgage, and have a 120,000 deposit for your new home.

    Of course, you'll need to pay stamp duty of - say - 20,000. So, all in all, you end up borrowing 300,000 to buy a 400,000 home.

    Now imagine that prices haven't moved. The good news is that the property you're looking to buy is now only 267,000.

    You pay off your mortgage, leaving you with 20,000. But that stamp duty now takes 13,000 of your equity, leaving you with just 7,000.

    Will the bank lend you the money now?
    If the person can afford the 300,000 mortgage in the first scenario, then they obviously have a big enough income that they shouldn't be relying only on capital gains to pay for the transaction costs of moving in the second scenario.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit hardman Steve Baker is Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.

    Good appointment, he will be an effective supporter for Heaton Harris. Quite a religious government from Truss too with evangelical Christian Baker and strict Roman Catholics Rees Mogg and Coffey
    Coffey is an extremely poor advert for Christian values, I would say, and the kind of person who may be Truss's achilles' heel. Here she sits now near the centre of government, the same person who pushed forward the cancellation of the UC uplift that even hard-right thinktanks like the Legatum Institute today are saying must itself be reversed as a decision, if "a million people are not to go into destitution this winter". The moderation or limiting of this kind of extremism will be a litmus test of whether Truss's ideology can cope with the scenario of a social crisis, and the omens so far aren't good. The appointment of Heaton-Harris and Baker in NI will similarly be causing worries in Washington.
    She also believes in traditional family values
    Meaning what?
    Traditional marriage and not abortion on demand
    God does NOT believe in traditional marriage. He NEVER married the mother of His only begotten son.
    Could he have been busy?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD traditional family values like abortion by demand in the backstreets by coat hanger?

    Coffey wants a reduction in the abortion time limit she has not said she would ban it completely
    Coffey said today she has no intention of changing the abortion laws
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    DougSeal said:

    Responses to PMQ’s never cease to be a prime example of confirmation bias.

    Well, not in my case, at least. I think her agenda is mad but found her directness to be refreshing.
    Nor in my case, I’m just strimming down the PB spin that’s bushing up the last few weeks.

    The latest is we were assured we would hear detail of Liz Truss government handouts to households and business this week, but Monday we didn’t, Tuesday we didn’t, and nor will we on Thursday now government have decided on a statement with no proper debate on the details.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263
    Well, this is one way of the Russians denying the Ukrainian 50,000 dead serviceman news.

    "It's only 48,800....."

    https://twitter.com/burgessct/status/1567566719887220741
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,574
    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD traditional family values like abortion by demand in the backstreets by coat hanger?

    Coffey wants a reduction in the abortion time limit she has not said she would ban it completely
    In the HoC this has long been a non-poitical issue. The last debate was very good.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.

    All things being equal, anyone who wants to trade up benefits from falling prices, even if they lose equity in their current property.
    Yes.

    And no.

    Let's say you bought a house for 200,000 with a 10% deposit.

    Prices rise 50%, so your house is worth 300,000, and you now want to sell and buy a house for 400,000.

    You pay back your 180,000 mortgage, and have a 120,000 deposit for your new home.

    Of course, you'll need to pay stamp duty of - say - 20,000. So, all in all, you end up borrowing 300,000 to buy a 400,000 home.

    Now imagine that prices haven't moved. The good news is that the property you're looking to buy is now only 267,000.

    You pay off your mortgage, leaving you with 20,000. But that stamp duty now takes 13,000 of your equity, leaving you with just 7,000.

    Will the bank lend you the money now?
    If they won't lend the typical buyer money then two things happen. Prices fall further and sales stall. It wont take long for either the price to fall to the level that fits the typical buyer or banks to start lending again.
    You say it won't take long, but house price corrections (and we need to have a house price correction) will have significant broad economic effects.

    People will be trapped in negative equity, and that will result in lower labour mobility, because people won't be able to sell. This also means that the housing market may be less liquid than it should be.

    Banks will also tighten lending standards, because of rising losses.

    And people who thought they had lots of equity tied up in their home will instead raise their personal savings rate to compensate. Look at Spain in the 2010 to 2012 period to see the short- to medium-term economic consequences of a rising savings rate driven by reduced home prices.

    That's the problem with allowing an asset class to get mispriced: unwinding it is often very expensive and difficult.
    I thought you were always telling us that the rate of savings in the UK was far too low and this had a bad effect on our economy. I thought I remembered it being the subject of one of your videos many moons ago?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    Why has the Pound dropped? Borrowing fears?

    In the spring the penny was dropping about Boris. However, now it has been adjusted for 2022 inflation it is time for the pound to drop.
    Now $1.146 to £1 - Truss can say what she likes about "cutting taxes", the market hears "increased borrowing".
    A falling pound increases inflation. The Bank of England and the Treasury will be working out how best to say "we told you so".
    Putting up interest rates to a more normal level wouldn't be such a bad thing.
    Except for people who have both mortgages and electricity bills: basically people in the 30 to 50 cohort.
    >95% of new mortgages are fixed rate and 83% of outstanding mortgages are fixed rate.
    Very few are fixed for more than five years, and for many it's just three: I reckon a quarter of the 83% will reset every year.
    How many 30-50 somethings plan to buy more property in the next few years? All of those save from lower purchase prices which impact far longer than having higher interest rates for a bit.
    Oh, UK property prices need to reset.

    But don't let's pretend that that process is not going to be painful for a lot of people. And let's not forget that if your property price has fallen 20%, then the amount of equity you have for your next purchase may have dropped 50 or 75% - which is not going to be any fun given the level of stamp duty.
    Robert, on average it will be older wealthier people losing out on house prices and the young asset poor benefiting from lower prices. For once it will reverse the general flow of wealth from the young to old in this country. As with everything, making an omelette requires breaking eggs, if, for once, the losers are older wealthy asset rich classes then so much the better for the nation.
    Technically not, it will be the children of older wealthier people who would lose out on lower house prices leading to lower inheritances.

    The young 20 and 30 year old renters would only really benefit from lower prices if mortgage lenders still lend the same amount and they don't face crippling interest rates
    The children of those retirees inherit at ages 50-60. They are part of the older, wealthier class.
    Just as a point of order, the average age of windfall inheritors is apparently 47. Which means they would have at least 20 years to go before they retire themselves. Not sure it actually makes any material difference to your comment but I found it interesting.
    Shouldn't be. Assume first child at 30 (which is late even now), one at 32, one at 34. If the middle child represents the average the second (later to die) parent is carking it on average at 79, which is young for the sort of demographic which has stuff to inherit.
    I am just quoting what the supposed experts say. It takes a second to google it and it is quoted very widely.
    It is, but here's an alternative 61 which seems much more likely to me

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-6334045/Longing-big-inheritance-wait-bit-average-age-inheritance-61-years.html

    The 61 number comes from the ONS. 47, from "research from equity release adviser Key"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-9973249/Over-11m-Britons-received-inheritance-windfall-past-decade.html

    Draw your own conclusions.
    Though that also says those under 45 were the group most likely to receive a family cash gift for a deposit etc
    The ONS does, yes. The average age 47 claim is fraudulent, and it is frightening how easily it has permeated the internet. It comes from "equity release advisors" who obviously want parents to look at their 47 yo children and say "How unfair of me not to have popped my clogs like all their age cohort's parents have, I must even up the score by borrowing against the house."
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD traditional family values like abortion by demand in the backstreets by coat hanger?

    Coffey wants a reduction in the abortion time limit she has not said she would ban it completely
    Strangely that's something I would actually agree with her about, if that's right, and she doesn't want to make the restriction too early. Several other European countries with full legal abortion rights don't allow as late-term as the UK, IIRC.
  • DougSeal said:

    Responses to PMQ’s never cease to be a prime example of confirmation bias.

    Well, not in my case, at least. I think her agenda is mad but found her directness to be refreshing.
    Nor in my case, I’m just strimming down the PB spin that’s bushing up the last few weeks.

    The latest is we were assured we would hear detail of Liz Truss government handouts to households and business this week, but Monday we didn’t, Tuesday we didn’t, and nor will we on Thursday now government have decided on a statement with no proper debate on the details.
    I do follow your posts with interest but at times you do say some strange things

    Truss and JLM will announce the detail tomorrow in the HOC which I have been stating for weeks
  • DougSeal said:

    Responses to PMQ’s never cease to be a prime example of confirmation bias.

    Well, not in my case, at least. I think her agenda is mad but found her directness to be refreshing.
    Nor in my case, I’m just strimming down the PB spin that’s bushing up the last few weeks.

    The latest is we were assured we would hear detail of Liz Truss government handouts to households and business this week, but Monday we didn’t, Tuesday we didn’t, and nor will we on Thursday now government have decided on a statement with no proper debate on the details.
    In Germany, the finance minister is telling people that small businesses can just stop producing things but this doesn't mean they will go bankrupt...

    https://twitter.com/tomdabassman/status/1567450786312949760
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