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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited September 2022
    theProle said:

    Anyone know what's going on in the world of petrol retailing at the moment, because it seems deeply weird.

    Up until recently, the cheapest fuel around was usually supermarkets in larger towns, and small "independent" retailers were 10-20p more expensive. Recently there seems to have been a total inversion. The cheapest two filling stations inside 20 miles of me (apart from a Costco, which is a bit of strange animal) are two independents at £1.59, the cheapest supermarkets are £1.65.
    I tried a few other random places in the petrol prices app (Sheffield, Dartford, Bath, Stoke-on-Trent) and in every case the cheapest fuel was either an unaffiliated independent or a Essar/Shell/Esso or similar franchise. (Cheapest fuel I found was a Shell in Dartford at £1.53).

    What on earth is going on? Have the supermarkets just collectively decided not to compete for fuel sales any more (Asda used to be priced very aggressively - no more it seems), or is there some other reason for them being undercut by most independents to the tune of 5-10p?

    As a guess, the wholesale price has ticked up in the last couple of weeks, and the supermarkets pay the higher price faster because of higher turnover than smaller stations. Another possibility is that the buyer for the supermarkets bought the fuel several months ago, and the market price has fallen further than expected so their hedge is under water.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    There was no will to reduce dependence. You are barking up the wrong tree.
    And why was there no will? We prioritised other things.

    The Ukraine crisis did not come out of the blue. We were warned.
    Yes, Germany prioritised making itself a hub to distribute Russian gas.
  • theProle said:

    Anyone know what's going on in the world of petrol retailing at the moment, because it seems deeply weird.

    Up until recently, the cheapest fuel around was usually supermarkets in larger towns, and small "independent" retailers were 10-20p more expensive. Recently there seems to have been a total inversion. The cheapest two filling stations inside 20 miles of me (apart from a Costco, which is a bit of strange animal) are two independents at £1.59, the cheapest supermarkets are £1.65.
    I tried a few other random places in the petrol prices app (Sheffield, Dartford, Bath, Stoke-on-Trent) and in every case the cheapest fuel was either an unaffiliated independent or a Essar/Shell/Esso or similar franchise. (Cheapest fuel I found was a Shell in Dartford at £1.53).

    What on earth is going on? Have the supermarkets just collectively decided not to compete for fuel sales any more (Asda used to be priced very aggressively - no more it seems), or is there some other reason for them being undercut by most independents to the tune of 5-10p?

    Same here in Wolverhampton, we have an independent retailer who is charging miles less than the supermarkets, so much so that the tailback of vehicles trying to get into the garage is causing havoc by blocking up and already congested main road.

  • glwglw Posts: 8,876

    There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.

    Exactly. Doing business with Russia was meant to cement peace, even though many warned that Europe giving Russia leverage would do the opposite.
  • I'm not sure how many more images of Liz and the gargantuan cheese-eating grin the nation can take.
  • What is the positive case for Truss establishing a poll lead, want to get the full picture when I place my bet

    There isn't one.

    For once, it looks like OGH has done his money on his Tory poll lead bet.
    Three possible lines of argument.

    First- new PMs tend to get a bounce, because they're new and they can bin some of the rubbish their predecessor has left round the place. Counterpoint is that there's no sign of the "thank God Boris is going" bounce that happened post-Maggie, and the Conservatives seem keen to embrace quite a lot of the rubbish. Is anyone significant on the blue side saying "he had to go", even in sorrow? "Great man, great achievements, great mistakes", that sort of thing?

    Second- the energy cap ought to be popular, at least until the small print becomes clear. (Is anyone really happy with casually chucking another hundred plus billion on the bills of our children/grandchildren, even if it's the only way out?) Counterargument is that heading off an incoming cost of living disaster doesn't do anything for the cost of living problems that are already happening, and were happening before Ukraine blew up.

    Finally. if Truss doesn't get a lead now, when does she?

    Truss ought to get some sort of new leader bounce. If the bouncelet that happened in July and deflated in August is as good as it gets, then heaven help her. Cons +5 / Lab -5 to get into the lead with the "nowcast" pollsters isn't impossible. But it wouldn't be shocking if it didn't happen.
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting that the Star's headline is the most politically astute.

    They know where they are with a pair of c[MODERATED].
    Is C[MODERATED] now to be the accepted euphemism for a word that aptly describes Boris Johnson? Eg.: Boris Johnson's cabinet colleagues with the exception of Nadine Dorries, could not really decide whether he would be best remembered as a complete c[MODERATED] or whether he was just a bit of a t[MODERATED]. Most realised that he was simultaneously both.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    ydoethur said:

    theProle said:

    Anyone know what's going on in the world of petrol retailing at the moment, because it seems deeply weird.

    Up until recently, the cheapest fuel around was usually supermarkets in larger towns, and small "independent" retailers were 10-20p more expensive. Recently there seems to have been a total inversion. The cheapest two filling stations inside 20 miles of me (apart from a Costco, which is a bit of strange animal) are two independents at £1.59, the cheapest supermarkets are £1.65.
    I tried a few other random places in the petrol prices app (Sheffield, Dartford, Bath, Stoke-on-Trent) and in every case the cheapest fuel was either an unaffiliated independent or a Essar/Shell/Esso or similar franchise. (Cheapest fuel I found was a Shell in Dartford at £1.53).

    What on earth is going on? Have the supermarkets just collectively decided not to compete for fuel sales any more (Asda used to be priced very aggressively - no more it seems), or is there some other reason for them being undercut by most independents to the tune of 5-10p?

    Purely speculating, but I wonder if supermarkets are unable to compete so aggressively on petrol as a loss leader due to the huge losses they must be making on heat and power for their stores?
    I've noticed the same pattern on the continent this summer. Maybe a temporary feature to do with the volatility of the wholesale price and the relative length of time the big retailers hedge and lock in prices vs smaller suppliers.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.
    I do enjoy the new line about Brexit causing European dependence on Russian energy. It's almost as if there's an agenda.
    It didn't cause it, but it distracted us at a key moment. It was not the only thing, as people say German energy policy is critical. But it didn't help. We disappeared up our own backside for about six years.

    There is no doubt that Europe collectively dropped the ball with Russia.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448
    glw said:

    There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.

    Exactly. Doing business with Russia was meant to cement peace, even though many warned that Europe giving Russia leverage would do the opposite.
    Relying on products where key parts are manufactured in China is similarly giving deadly power to China.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that the Star's headline is the most politically astute.

    They know where they are with a pair of c[MODERATED].
    Is C[MODERATED] now to be the accepted euphemism for a word that aptly describes Boris Johnson? Eg.: Boris Johnson's cabinet colleagues with the exception of Nadine Dorries, could not really decide whether he would be best remembered as a complete c[MODERATED] or whether he was just a bit of a t[MODERATED]. Most realised that he was simultaneously both.
    Dura's FLSOJ is the approved term, I think ?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    What dependence on Russian finance? When the war began we sanctioned Russia as they were using our finance system, not the other way around.

    Them resting their funds in our financial system enabled us to sanction them. It was a soft power weapon we could and did use against them, not vice-versa.

    The only issue was gas. Europe being reliant upon Russian gas for energy security is the problem.
    Significant parts of the UK economy were dependent on Russian money: Real Estate, Football, Media, Politics. It would be naive to say that money does not buy influence.
    Well, the evidence would suggest otherwise. All that Russian money hasn't stopped us training and arming the Ukrainians.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    The UK itself had very little structural dependence on hydrocarbons from Russia. The problem is the dependency of others which is now meaning increased competition for a reduced supply.
    If Europe had focused on energy security rather than Brexit for the past six years we all would have been in a better place. No-one was talking about Russia until it was too late. We were all looking inward and left the back door open.
    That's got to be the worst take on the energy issue I've seen in a while.
    Put slightly differently and it's possible to see something here. File within the "EU needs UK as much as we need them" drawer.

    The UK is one of the most hawkish European countries vis a vis Russia. Absent Brexit, might it have used its influence in the EU to push for greater energy independence?

    I doubt it, but there's always that possible alternative history.
  • Interesting that the Star's headline is the most politically astute.

    They often are, these days. "Clowing Street" was by far the best response to the choice we were lumbered with in December 2019.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that the Star's headline is the most politically astute.

    They know where they are with a pair of c[MODERATED].
    Is C[MODERATED] now to be the accepted euphemism for a word that aptly describes Boris Johnson? Eg.: Boris Johnson's cabinet colleagues with the exception of Nadine Dorries, could not really decide whether he would be best remembered as a complete c[MODERATED] or whether he was just a bit of a t[MODERATED]. Most realised that he was simultaneously both.
    Isn't that a tautology?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976
    Cyclefree said:

    One can perhaps exaggerate what small gestures say about a person. Still, Truss's failure to turn to Sunak and shake his hand before going up to give her speech yesterday was small-minded (if deliberate) and rude (if not).

    How hard is it to get this sort of stuff right, especially for someone who has been in politics as long as she has?

    Didn't look at her husband either. Just up and off like a whippet!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264

    Interesting that the Star's headline is the most politically astute.

    They often are, these days. "Clowing Street" was by far the best response to the choice we were lumbered with in December 2019.
    ...
  • https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204

    "Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,491
    edited September 2022

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    Technically I give her 14 months, she'll be ousted by the 2023 Tory conference.
    With all due respect I think your judgement has been clouded by Brexit.

    On the day that Boris became leader you were adamant that his election was such a disaster it would mean Corbyn winning the next election and becoming PM. Fast forward to the election and Boris won an 80 seat majority and Corbyn the worst result in nearly a century.

    I would take your predictions of Truss's imminent fall with a large pinch of salt.
    Err I predicted a Tory majority of 40-70 plus Scotland at the 2019 GE.

    I also predicted Boris Johnson wouldn't come close to lasting as long as PM as Dave did, for which I'm getting treated to a very nice lunch at the Ritz at the end of the month.

    I said Boris Johnson was too lazy and undisciplined to be PM and I was right.

    Ultimately there's going to be an unholy alliance of Boris Johnson fans and others who think they can oust her before the next election and fight the 2024 GE.
  • Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.
    I do enjoy the new line about Brexit causing European dependence on Russian energy. It's almost as if there's an agenda.
    It didn't cause it, but it distracted us at a key moment. It was not the only thing, as people say German energy policy is critical. But it didn't help. We disappeared up our own backside for about six years.

    There is no doubt that Europe collectively dropped the ball with Russia.
    Is your conclusion that we collectively should have given Brexit much less significance and that Angela Merkel, for example, set the wrong tone?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    theProle said:

    Anyone know what's going on in the world of petrol retailing at the moment, because it seems deeply weird.

    Up until recently, the cheapest fuel around was usually supermarkets in larger towns, and small "independent" retailers were 10-20p more expensive. Recently there seems to have been a total inversion. The cheapest two filling stations inside 20 miles of me (apart from a Costco, which is a bit of strange animal) are two independents at £1.59, the cheapest supermarkets are £1.65.
    I tried a few other random places in the petrol prices app (Sheffield, Dartford, Bath, Stoke-on-Trent) and in every case the cheapest fuel was either an unaffiliated independent or a Essar/Shell/Esso or similar franchise. (Cheapest fuel I found was a Shell in Dartford at £1.53).

    What on earth is going on? Have the supermarkets just collectively decided not to compete for fuel sales any more (Asda used to be priced very aggressively - no more it seems), or is there some other reason for them being undercut by most independents to the tune of 5-10p?

    Purely speculating, but I wonder if supermarkets are unable to compete so aggressively on petrol as a loss leader due to the huge losses they must be making on heat and power for their stores?
    I've noticed the same pattern on the continent this summer. Maybe a temporary feature to do with the volatility of the wholesale price and the relative length of time the big retailers hedge and lock in prices vs smaller suppliers.
    I'm filling with diesel.
    Last fills were 170.9p (My car, costco Sheffield)
    174.9p Fiancées car, Alnwick (North east) Morrisons.
    Costco has the 30 quid a year fee but its well worth it and the northeast is cheaper for fuel due to proximity to where its shipped in I think.
    Petrol diesel spread is very large at the moment due I think to reduced diesel refining capacity.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,651
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.
    I do enjoy the new line about Brexit causing European dependence on Russian energy. It's almost as if there's an agenda.
    It didn't cause it, but it distracted us at a key moment. It was not the only thing, as people say German energy policy is critical. But it didn't help. We disappeared up our own backside for about six years.

    There is no doubt that Europe collectively dropped the ball with Russia.
    But there's never been a will to reduce energy dependency on Russia. Brexit or not, the policy simply didn't exist until late last year. It would have got the same amount of focus - zero. The rights and wrongs of that are definitely up for debate but suggesting that Brexit is some factor just shows you've gone off into the deep end here.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that the Star's headline is the most politically astute.

    They know where they are with a pair of c[MODERATED].
    Is C[MODERATED] now to be the accepted euphemism for a word that aptly describes Boris Johnson? Eg.: Boris Johnson's cabinet colleagues with the exception of Nadine Dorries, could not really decide whether he would be best remembered as a complete c[MODERATED] or whether he was just a bit of a t[MODERATED]. Most realised that he was simultaneously both.
    Isn't that a tautology?
    Lol. Only if one considers both words the same, and while they may be colloquial parts of the same anatomically, they may have different interpretation. Similarly if one described Johnson as a a bit of a c*ck, that might be different if he were described as a bit of a dick. Of course saying Johnson is a dick is also a form of tautology perhaps?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    I'm not sure how many more images of Liz and the gargantuan cheese-eating grin the nation can take.

    Getting all your news from the radio is a great way of not having to see "gargantuan cheese-eating grin". ....And before anyone cries "misogyny" you don't know if I am talking about Liz Truss or Tony Blair.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,651
    eristdoof said:

    glw said:

    There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.

    Exactly. Doing business with Russia was meant to cement peace, even though many warned that Europe giving Russia leverage would do the opposite.
    Relying on products where key parts are manufactured in China is similarly giving deadly power to China.
    Indeed, and it's also why the idea that having Russia do all it's finance here was to our detriment, it gives us leverage over them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,765
    edited September 2022
    I have submitted my letter of resignation to the outgoing Prime Minister.

    I am humbled that Liz Truss extended her confidence in me by asking me to remain as Secretary of State for DCMS. I will always show her the same loyalty and support I have to @BorisJohnson.

    Onwards!

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1567077192798015489
  • kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One can perhaps exaggerate what small gestures say about a person. Still, Truss's failure to turn to Sunak and shake his hand before going up to give her speech yesterday was small-minded (if deliberate) and rude (if not).

    How hard is it to get this sort of stuff right, especially for someone who has been in politics as long as she has?

    Didn't look at her husband either. Just up and off like a whippet!
    She has treated her husband very badly in the past by cheating on him,

    If somebody can betray their family then they can betray their country,

    We should bar adulterers from high office.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,146
    moonshine said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin
    thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    I don’t know go and ask a European. The UK had a fifth of its diesel coming from Russian refineries but that’s a more liquid and straightforward market to find alternative supply. Our problem is that our marginal supply in winter comes from LNG and everyone else is now also bidding for that LNG.

    In the case of Germany it was a cultural issue (Good Germans are Good Friends With Russia) combined with cheap gas being an easy way to reduce CO2 emissions, getting rid of nuclear, plus some outright corruption.

    When a campaign was launched to try and stop and LNG port in *Poland* on the grounds that LNG is dangerous and bad - that was all internal German politics.

    NordStream 2 was going to bind Russia and Europe together, make Germany the hub of gas supply and make lots of money....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204

    "Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"

    Does that include Tennent’s Super, as well as the regular stuff?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    If anyone is wondering, I decided not to head up to Deeside today due to forecast thunder and lightning.

    Been caught out once before and it is a deeply unpleasant experience.
  • Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    Europe just did not see Russia invading Ukraine and were content to build gas supply pipes from Russia to provide their energy

    At least the UK only depends on 4% energy from Russia but most people will look back at Merkel's time with Putin as a critical misjudgement leading to where we are today
    Agreed, but collective Western impotence over the invasion of Crimea was many times worse.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 3,023
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    The UK itself had very little structural dependence on hydrocarbons from Russia. The problem is the dependency of others which is now meaning increased competition for a reduced supply.
    If Europe had focused on energy security rather than Brexit for the past six years we all would have been in a better place. No-one was talking about Russia until it was too late. We were all looking inward and left the back door open.
    That's got to be the worst take on the energy issue I've seen in a while.
    Especially because the only part of Europe that has focused on Brexit for the last 6 years has been the UK (perhaps with the exception of Ireland, to an extent).

    I would argue a lot more attention paid to Brexit in the rest of Europe would have been a good thing. Probably wouldn't make much difference to Putin though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.
    I do enjoy the new line about Brexit causing European dependence on Russian energy. It's almost as if there's an agenda.
    It didn't cause it, but it distracted us at a key moment. It was not the only thing, as people say German energy policy is critical. But it didn't help. We disappeared up our own backside for about six years.

    There is no doubt that Europe collectively dropped the ball with Russia.
    But there's never been a will to reduce energy dependency on Russia. Brexit or not, the policy simply didn't exist until late last year. It would have got the same amount of focus - zero. The rights and wrongs of that are definitely up for debate but suggesting that Brexit is some factor just shows you've gone off into the deep end here.
    We might have to agree to disagree. I suspect when historians ask the question, "Why Europe failed to see and contain the Russian threat after Crimea?" they will talk about German policy to engage Russia, but they will also talk about distractions.
  • The carbon footprint created today because the Queen is too lazy to come down to London is an outrage.

    If she isn't up to the job then she should make way for somebody who can.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Every western nation has high inflation, indeed Spain and the Netherlands higher than us because of the sanctions imposed after the Ukraine war. Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic.

    "Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic" is a downright lie. I have explained to you before that you are wrong but you persist with this untruth. Check the dates, and check the terms and conditions. You are peddling a falsehood, I know this because every month I transfer £5.5k to a care home in England to cover a relative's care costs. This will continue until the property is sold or the property is handed over to Herefordshire Council.
    By 2023 when the change comes into law it will be true
    October 2023 is a long way away for @Mexicanpete and others including our family, and you simply cannot be allowed to make misleading statements as you are prone to do
    It was not misleading, if it was not for Boris those with dementia would see potentially all their assets still gone to pay for residential care costs through to the next election in 2024 and beyond.

    Show some gratitude to Boris for that!!
    You were grossly misleading. "Nobody pays more than £86k" is what happens now. Right now, in the current financial year which began in April.

    You are being appallingly mannered in your attacks on BigG and Mexcanpete, especially as they have to cope with the reality behind your convenient misstatement.

    And there's nothing to stop the legislation being cancelled before it is brought into actual effect. So a bit early to be grateful to "Boris" for spending yet more money to keep Tory Party pensioner members in the state to which they have become all too accustomed.
    It is actually Tory Party pensioners children who would benefit from the inheritance most, selling off their homes to pay for care costs would not make much difference to them as they could not live in them anyway and would be dead when it is passed on
    So? Parents worry about their children and love to leave them lots of money (within reason). Plus the pensioners will feel they can spend a little more on themselves while they are still alive.

    Have you never met a real pensioner thinking along those lines?
    I agree, hence we should all thank Boris for this wonderful cap on care costs he legislated for. One of his greatest legacies
    You think it will survive? It hasn't happened yet. Legacies have a habit of not happening if you anticipate them too much.
    If Truss cancelled it or Starmer repealed it it would be politically suicide for either of them, even more damaging than May's dementia tax
  • ohnotnow said:

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204

    "Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"

    One parliamentary source said if the cost of a freeze was met by landlords the policy would cost the Government nothing.

    That'll work well with increasing mortgage rates.....
  • Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    Europe just did not see Russia invading Ukraine and were content to build gas supply pipes from Russia to provide their energy

    At least the UK only depends on 4% energy from Russia but most people will look back at Merkel's time with Putin as a critical misjudgement leading to where we are today
    Agreed, but collective Western impotence over the invasion of Crimea was many times worse.
    The alternative narrative that's more flattering to the west is that if Putin had tried to take the whole of Ukraine in 2014, it would have worked, but freezing the conflict bought enough time for Ukraine to retrain their military and prepare.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    The carbon footprint created today because the Queen is too lazy to come down to London is an outrage.

    If she isn't up to the job then she should make way for somebody who can.

    The Queen and her entourage would have used two planes as well, so it makes no difference who does the travelling.
  • I don't give a flying fuck about Truss and Johnsons' travel arrangements to Balmoral and back.

    There, I've said it.

    French-built jet from RAF Northolt!
  • kamski said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    The UK itself had very little structural dependence on hydrocarbons from Russia. The problem is the dependency of others which is now meaning increased competition for a reduced supply.
    If Europe had focused on energy security rather than Brexit for the past six years we all would have been in a better place. No-one was talking about Russia until it was too late. We were all looking inward and left the back door open.
    That's got to be the worst take on the energy issue I've seen in a while.
    Especially because the only part of Europe that has focused on Brexit for the last 6 years has been the UK (perhaps with the exception of Ireland, to an extent).

    I would argue a lot more attention paid to Brexit in the rest of Europe would have been a good thing. Probably wouldn't make much difference to Putin though.
    It is minor in the greater scheme, but Putin would have seen Brexit as a weakening of the EU, and the West by extension. That is why he was so in favour of Brexit and was highly active in influencing social media. Whether it had any influence is open to debate, unless you believe "The Russia Report" in which case you will believe there was no Russian interference. You will probably also believe in fairies at the end of the garden and that London Bridge is currently up for sale at a reasonable price.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Every western nation has high inflation, indeed Spain and the Netherlands higher than us because of the sanctions imposed after the Ukraine war. Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic.

    "Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic" is a downright lie. I have explained to you before that you are wrong but you persist with this untruth. Check the dates, and check the terms and conditions. You are peddling a falsehood, I know this because every month I transfer £5.5k to a care home in England to cover a relative's care costs. This will continue until the property is sold or the property is handed over to Herefordshire Council.
    By 2023 when the change comes into law it will be true
    October 2023 is a long way away for @Mexicanpete and others including our family, and you simply cannot be allowed to make misleading statements as you are prone to do
    It was not misleading, if it was not for Boris those with dementia would see potentially all their assets still gone to pay for residential care costs through to the next election in 2024 and beyond.

    Show some gratitude to Boris for that!!
    You were grossly misleading. "Nobody pays more than £86k" is what happens now. Right now, in the current financial year which began in April.

    You are being appallingly mannered in your attacks on BigG and Mexcanpete, especially as they have to cope with the reality behind your convenient misstatement.

    And there's nothing to stop the legislation being cancelled before it is brought into actual effect. So a bit early to be grateful to "Boris" for spending yet more money to keep Tory Party pensioner members in the state to which they have become all too accustomed.
    It is actually Tory Party pensioners children who would benefit from the inheritance most, selling off their homes to pay for care costs would not make much difference to them as they could not live in them anyway and would be dead when it is passed on
    So? Parents worry about their children and love to leave them lots of money (within reason). Plus the pensioners will feel they can spend a little more on themselves while they are still alive.

    Have you never met a real pensioner thinking along those lines?
    I agree, hence we should all thank Boris for this wonderful cap on care costs he legislated for. One of his greatest legacies
    You think it will survive? It hasn't happened yet. Legacies have a habit of not happening if you anticipate them too much.
    If Truss cancelled it or Starmer repealed it it would be politically suicide for either of them, even more damaging than May's dementia tax
    Would it? May's tax hit her with the Tory voters, at a very different time. SKS isn't under the same constraints.
  • Sandpit said:

    The carbon footprint created today because the Queen is too lazy to come down to London is an outrage.

    If she isn't up to the job then she should make way for somebody who can.

    The Queen and her entourage would have used two planes as well, so it makes no difference who does the travelling.
    Make her catch the LNER Aberdeen to King's Cross.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932

    The carbon footprint created today because the Queen is too lazy to come down to London is an outrage.

    If she isn't up to the job then she should make way for somebody who can.

    You are Liz Truss and I claim my £5.
  • Jonathan said:

    The carbon footprint created today because the Queen is too lazy to come down to London is an outrage.

    If she isn't up to the job then she should make way for somebody who can.

    You are Liz Truss and I claim my £5.
    Liz Truss wishes she was me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    What utter rubbish. Boris got Brexit done, delivered the vaccines, supported people and businesses through lockdown and sent weapons and supplied to Ukraine before most world leaders and won the biggest Conservative election victory since Thatcher. Good leaving speech from him too.

    Just since WW2 Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown and May were all worse PMs than Boris.

    Boris had huge charisma and was a great leader. Unfortunately for the Tories their stupid decision to remove him means it is likely all downhill from here for them for a generation, as it was for them when they removed Thatcher in 1990 and as it was for Labour when Blair was pushed to go in 2007

    Thought it would be interesting to give my view on the specifics @hyufd commented upon. In fairness to @hyufd in this case all the comments expressed are just opinions (rather than facts) and as such mine are as valid or as worthless.

    Boris got Brexit done - If you mean we left yes, but with the worst deal possible. It is a mess. So no. Getting brexit done is not this.

    Delivered the vaccines - Yes a good job, as well as some other good jobs eg Nightingale Hospitals. Also some cockups eg track and trace and the inability to resist lying about stuff unnecessarily.

    Supported people and businesses - Yes pretty good, but 80% was too generous and a waste of money and some groups were unnecessarily left to fall through the cracks. Understandable initially but inexcusable later eg small limited companies.

    Ukraine - Yes excellent, except for slowness and jobs worth stuff with regard to refugees at the start.

    Biggest Conservative election win since Thatcher - Yes but circumstances of needing to get Brexit done and Corbyn were the main factors in my opinion.

    Good leaving speech - Only heard a bit but it sounded excellent, but lies in it. Why lie. A new nuclear reactor every year for instance.

    Worse PMs - I don't know enough about Eden. I don't believe Heath and Callaghan were worse. Brown and May were awful I grant you but what makes a PM worse. Not comparing like with like here. Brown was indecisive, May stubborn and neither could campaign, but Boris was corrupt, lied relentless and came close to breaking the fabric of Government several times. That makes him worse.

    Boris has huge charisma - Yes agree.

    Now we come to the only bit which I don't think is opinion but the application of logic. Yes it probably is downhill from here but not because they removed Boris an election winner like Thatcher or Blair but because they have come to the end of their time in office. Just because you win well does not mean you will always win well if you stick with the same leader. If Blair and Thatcher had continued they would have eventually lost. It is daft to assume that because Boris won with a big majority he will always win. He clearly wouldn't have done.
    No we did not leave with the worst deal possible, that would have been No Deal Brexit which Boris avoided while regaining sovereignty and ending free movement as most Leave voters voted for.

    Heath and Callaghan left a legacy of a declining economy and inflation and strikes without the Ukraine war as an excuse.
  • Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    Europe just did not see Russia invading Ukraine and were content to build gas supply pipes from Russia to provide their energy

    At least the UK only depends on 4% energy from Russia but most people will look back at Merkel's time with Putin as a critical misjudgement leading to where we are today
    Agreed, but collective Western impotence over the invasion of Crimea was many times worse.
    The alternative narrative that's more flattering to the west is that if Putin had tried to take the whole of Ukraine in 2014, it would have worked, but freezing the conflict bought enough time for Ukraine to retrain their military and prepare.
    I think the alternative narrative to that was that the West didn't give a shit. Merkle's abandonment of nuclear was clearly stupid, but those who think we should never buy hydrocarbons from despotic regimes clearly has never looked at a map of where most of it comes from.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204

    "Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"

    One parliamentary source said if the cost of a freeze was met by landlords the policy would cost the Government nothing.

    That'll work well with increasing mortgage rates.....
    Ah, rent control. Are there any examples, anywhere at all in the developed world, of rent control being successful in achieving anything - other than making landlords sell up or being unable to afford to maintain properties?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited September 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Every western nation has high inflation, indeed Spain and the Netherlands higher than us because of the sanctions imposed after the Ukraine war. Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic.

    "Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic" is a downright lie. I have explained to you before that you are wrong but you persist with this untruth. Check the dates, and check the terms and conditions. You are peddling a falsehood, I know this because every month I transfer £5.5k to a care home in England to cover a relative's care costs. This will continue until the property is sold or the property is handed over to Herefordshire Council.
    By 2023 when the change comes into law it will be true
    October 2023 is a long way away for @Mexicanpete and others including our family, and you simply cannot be allowed to make misleading statements as you are prone to do
    It was not misleading, if it was not for Boris those with dementia would see potentially all their assets still gone to pay for residential care costs through to the next election in 2024 and beyond.

    Show some gratitude to Boris for that!!
    You were grossly misleading. "Nobody pays more than £86k" is what happens now. Right now, in the current financial year which began in April.

    You are being appallingly mannered in your attacks on BigG and Mexcanpete, especially as they have to cope with the reality behind your convenient misstatement.

    And there's nothing to stop the legislation being cancelled before it is brought into actual effect. So a bit early to be grateful to "Boris" for spending yet more money to keep Tory Party pensioner members in the state to which they have become all too accustomed.
    It is actually Tory Party pensioners children who would benefit from the inheritance most, selling off their homes to pay for care costs would not make much difference to them as they could not live in them anyway and would be dead when it is passed on
    So? Parents worry about their children and love to leave them lots of money (within reason). Plus the pensioners will feel they can spend a little more on themselves while they are still alive.

    Have you never met a real pensioner thinking along those lines?
    I agree, hence we should all thank Boris for this wonderful cap on care costs he legislated for. One of his greatest legacies
    You think it will survive? It hasn't happened yet. Legacies have a habit of not happening if you anticipate them too much.
    If Truss cancelled it or Starmer repealed it it would be politically suicide for either of them, even more damaging than May's dementia tax
    Would it? May's tax hit her with the Tory voters, at a very different time. SKS isn't under the same constraints.
    May's dementia tax saw a swing from Tory to Labour amongst 40 to 60 year olds in 2017 relative to 2015 given even Corbyn promised to oppose the dementia tax. That lost May her majority.

    40 to 60 year olds are the key swing voters now, so abandoning the social care cap Boris legislated for could be political suicide for Starmer as much as Truss

  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    And now we are all going through BJ’s motions.
  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 107
    edited September 2022

    What is the positive case for Truss establishing a poll lead, want to get the full picture when I place my bet

    It seems more plausible when you consider that May had a sort of premature apotheosis in the period leading up to the 2017 election. The lead turned out to be fragile but it seemed impressive enough while it lasted.

    Corbyn then had his own apotheosis of sorts in the period following the 2017 election. There is a post from this very site, either from 2017 or 2018 I think, noting that Corbyn was, at that stage, the most popular politician in the UK.

    When you consider May and Corbyn and their relative merits, a poll lead for Truss, even for a split second, no longer seems impossible. Though of course with May and Corbyn it generated a false sense of security.
  • Sandpit said:

    The carbon footprint created today because the Queen is too lazy to come down to London is an outrage.

    If she isn't up to the job then she should make way for somebody who can.

    The Queen and her entourage would have used two planes as well, so it makes no difference who does the travelling.
    Make her catch the LNER Aberdeen to King's Cross.
    Clearly none of them have heard of Zoom. In fact, maybe someone did suggest they Zoom up to Balmoral and they thought they needed a jet to do it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Revealed:

    Liz Truss's new Number 10 team

    There's a big clearout this morning - the delivery unit is gone, there will be a new economic unit

    Truss is putting her most loyal allies in key roles

    It sounds pretty brutal - officials very upset as they're asked to leave https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567075843641430018/photo/1

    There are very few survivors from Boris Johnson's Number 10

    Even David Canzini - who was tipped to remain - is out

    This is very much Liz Truss's team and Liz Truss's people

    There will be questions over experience

    Can Mark Fullbrook run Govt?

    Jamie Hope and Jamie Harries, both in their mid 20s, will be leading on policy

    But Truss allies say she backs them to hilt - these are her people

    The by-product of Liz Truss's slimmed down Number 10 is a Cabinet Office power grab

    The Cabinet Office's Economic and Domestic Secretariat will become the policy-making engine of govt, feeding into Number 10

    In many ways that's the opposite of what Boris Johnson set in train
  • Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    Europe just did not see Russia invading Ukraine and were content to build gas supply pipes from Russia to provide their energy

    At least the UK only depends on 4% energy from Russia but most people will look back at Merkel's time with Putin as a critical misjudgement leading to where we are today
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Some bizarre analysis on here this morning. My favourite being that Germany wouldn’t be energy independent on Russia were it not for Brexit.

    I also wonder about the quality of media people are consuming based on what they say about the war. It’s clear what’s happening in the next 3-6 months. The grinding destruction of Russian forces west of the Dnipro over autumn. Russia will then spend the winter desperately trying to reconstitute battered BTGs. Ukraine meanwhile will be rotating troops out with the newly trained forces. While picking up the intensity of shaping operations on Crimea for a spring offensive, which will be very vulnerable indeed after Kherson falls. The intensity of the Russian artillery war will all the while be dropping, as they deplete stockpiles of shells and barrels - see desperate eBay shopping from North Korea.

    Russian leaders are historically judged by elites based upon their territorial gains or losses. And Crimea has special symbolic significance. Its property sector has also been used as a store of wealth for the chattering Muscovites since 2014. Its loss to the Russian empire will on my view be fatal to Putin, most likely literally not just figuratively.

    Putin thinks he has two strong aces. But he doesn’t. They’re just cards that will bring short term human misery but undermine Russia’s strength not just in terms of this war but its long term future.

    The first is the gas card. The market had already priced this in it can only be played once. As others have described, things will get easier over time. Germany has 4 lng vessels coming on stream this winter. Over a three year timescale the market with some govt backing substantially solves the problem.

    The second is using Zap as a giant dirty bomb. But it’s hard to see how this changes the context of the war either on the ground, or strategically. Europe and Ukraine would have even greater resolve if he played that card, and he’d also likely force China’s hand in picking sides too.

    What then? The leading contender is likely the fragmentation of the Russian federation, which will be pretty wild.

    Russia is resilient. And most of its citizens are vividly patriotic, even in the outlying regions. I
    don’t believe it will break up in any significant way. An awful lot of Russians would fight that outcome, physically, for a start

    But yes: China is key
    Whole towns in the regions have been emptied of young men and had body bags and limbless cripples returning, to a local economy that in many cases already had little going for it, but even less so given the sanctions regime.

    Also the longer the war goes on, the more Russia has to end up degrading its internal security structures to keep the fight going. I don’t think this is something that’s happening in 2023 but if you ask for my 5-year outlook for Russia, I think it pretty likely there will be attempts at unilateral secession and that Russia’s military will by then be unfit to stop it, even if it has a new strong man in charge (which it might not, it could be a shaky compromise candidate).

    Also the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t operate the way you think it does. It is studied in its attempts to remain above the fray. SOEs aren’t buying Russian oil at the request of the US. The private sector is at the request of the Kremlin. The state is not providing arms but no doubt is providing civilian tech that might be repurposed. At every step, it manages its self interest in a very precise manner. Anyone expecting a Ribentrop - Molotov style pact, has an incomplete understanding of the political culture there.
    I might be in the minority here, but my guess is the Dugin bomb was internal factional stuff, not Ukrainian. I agree that there could well be a few people who are seeing the beginnings of an opening here to succeed Putin.

    Whether this will improve the lot of the Russian people is doubtful, though a reduction in bodybags would be a start. Russia is one of the great cultures of the world, terrific, resilient folk who produce wonderful art and culture (including possible the greatest national tradition of literature) - yet few peoples have been so consistently atrociously led.

    Cracks in the federation seem unlikely, though there may a resurgence of trouble in (sigh) the Caucasus.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,370

    Plane accidents with political VIPs do happen.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster

    With a name of antiquity such as yours I am almost tempted to accuse you of being Boris Johnson and claim my £5, though I have no idea whether he has any connection with St Albans.
    One of the seats he lost in 2019, I seem to remember. Johnson was a loser if ever there was one...

    In passing, congratulations to the Conservative Party for having rid itself at long last of that useless lump of fat. Though I shall not really believe it until I see pictures of the removal van outside No. 10. But the country does seem a bit cleaner already.

  • Jonathan said:

    The carbon footprint created today because the Queen is too lazy to come down to London is an outrage.

    If she isn't up to the job then she should make way for somebody who can.

    You are Liz Truss and I claim my £5.
    Liz Truss wishes she was me.
    I bet you could teach her a thing or two..
  • ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    Technically I give her 14 months, she'll be ousted by the 2023 Tory conference.
    With all due respect I think your judgement has been clouded by Brexit.

    On the day that Boris became leader you were adamant that his election was such a disaster it would mean Corbyn winning the next election and becoming PM. Fast forward to the election and Boris won an 80 seat majority and Corbyn the worst result in nearly a century.

    I would take your predictions of Truss's imminent fall with a large pinch of salt.
    Err I predicted a Tory majority of 40-70 plus Scotland at the 2019 GE.

    I also predicted Boris Johnson wouldn't come to lasting as PM as Dave did, for which I'm getting treated to a very nice lunch at the Ritz at the end of the month.

    I said Boris Johnson was too lazy and undisciplined to be PM and I was right.

    Ultimately there's going to be an unholy alliance of Boris Johnson fans and others who think they can oust her before the next election and fight the 2024 GE.
    Depends a lot on what you think drives politics.

    Is it the cut and thrust of policy?

    Is it size of personality?

    Or is it, for want of a better word, character? What Old Tories would have called "bottom"? It's hard to separate foresight from hindsight, but I reckon that for most incoming PMs, their failure mode and survival time were pretty predictable from the off.

    Cameron and Johnson were too comfortable in their own skins, making one a bit overconfident and the other utterly reckless and selfish. Blair and Thatcher were confident in what they were doing, which gets you a long way but meant that, after a while, they ignored warning signs. Brown and May were clever, hard working but too insecure to be clubbable, so they didn't have a sufficient guard around them when things went wrong, so things fell apart quickly for them.

    I'd need a lot of persuading that Truss isn't in the same category, except a bit stranger.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Revealed:

    Liz Truss's new Number 10 team

    There's a big clearout this morning - the delivery unit is gone, there will be a new economic unit

    Truss is putting her most loyal allies in key roles

    It sounds pretty brutal - officials very upset as they're asked to leave https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567075843641430018/photo/1

    There are very few survivors from Boris Johnson's Number 10

    Even David Canzini - who was tipped to remain - is out

    This is very much Liz Truss's team and Liz Truss's people

    There will be questions over experience

    Can Mark Fullbrook run Govt?

    Jamie Hope and Jamie Harries, both in their mid 20s, will be leading on policy

    But Truss allies say she backs them to hilt - these are her people

    The by-product of Liz Truss's slimmed down Number 10 is a Cabinet Office power grab

    The Cabinet Office's Economic and Domestic Secretariat will become the policy-making engine of govt, feeding into Number 10

    In many ways that's the opposite of what Boris Johnson set in train

    I am all in favour of having apprentice schemes but "both in their mid 20s, will be leading on policy". FFS!
  • ohnotnow said:

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204

    "Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"

    One parliamentary source said if the cost of a freeze was met by landlords the policy would cost the Government nothing.

    That'll work well with increasing mortgage rates.....
    I feel like this is going to trash the rental sector in Scotland. A lot of people, especially on the left, are very hostile to the whole sector but, speaking as someone who has rented extensively, I don't want it destroyed, I want it fit for purpose and abuses in the system stopped. I have no problem with the old woman who rented me a flat, at a decent price, which allowed me to have a place to live for years, however I was less impressed by the green-voting landlady who kicked me out to list the property on AirBnB...

    Anything that will reduce rental stock, in areas where the availability of property might not be able to keep up demand, is likely to increase scarcity and competition. This will increase prices, either legally or illegally, and we will see more 'bidding over the asking price' for rental properties. Those that don't just get sold, that is.

    I know BTLs sit at the right hand of Hitler/the Devil for some, but not everyone is in a position to buy nor wants to be tied down by property. While it doesn't make long-term financial sense to hand over your cash to pay someone else's mortgage, landlords provide a service in exchange for money, a pretty vital one imo. Squeezing the sector until the pips squeak is not likely to benefit tenants.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,345
    Eabhal said:

    If anyone is wondering, I decided not to head up to Deeside today due to forecast thunder and lightning.

    Been caught out once before and it is a deeply unpleasant experience.

    I landed at Gatwick early in the hours of the morning yesterday in spectacular fork lightning, heavy hail and turbulence. It was interesting although I have had worse including:

    a) Emergency landing at Gatwick (damaged undercarriage on take off)
    b) Aborted takeoff at Gatwick (no idea why)
    c) Emergency landing at Bicester in a glider (winch launch partial failure so not getting enough height for a circuit)
    d) Sudden violent single gain/loss in height (no explanation given as to why our dinner and all the staff ended up on the floor). This was the most scary, although probably the least dangerous.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.


    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    All the people in Georgia, Chechnya, Luhansk, Donbas, Syria and Crimea must be raging at the UK for Brexiting, thereby causing Putin to bomb the shit out of them. They must also be somewhat perplexed, given that Putin did this several years before Brexit even happened
  • Unionism is now a rump of weirdos, bigots and amateur Photoshoppers.



  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited September 2022
    kjh said:

    Eabhal said:

    If anyone is wondering, I decided not to head up to Deeside today due to forecast thunder and lightning.

    Been caught out once before and it is a deeply unpleasant experience.

    I landed at Gatwick early in the hours of the morning yesterday in spectacular fork lightning, heavy hail and turbulence. It was interesting although I have had worse including:

    a) Emergency landing at Gatwick (damaged undercarriage on take off)
    b) Aborted takeoff at Gatwick (no idea why)
    c) Emergency landing at Bicester in a glider (winch launch partial failure so not getting enough height for a circuit)
    d) Sudden violent single gain/loss in height (no explanation given as to why our dinner and all the staff ended up on the floor). This was the most scary, although probably the least dangerous.
    That’s quite the record! A and B are relatively routine, C is very routine indeed (I’ve done it at least a dozen times, as the pilot).

    D is the most likely to result in injuries, which is why you should always put your seat belt on when the light is illuminated. Several dozen cabin crew and numerous passengers are injured every year, flying around the cabin or getting hit by a trolley in severe turbulence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Unionism is now a rump of weirdos, bigots and amateur Photoshoppers.



    By all accounts not an unreasonable scenario on both sides. NB the necklace

    PB is eternally in my debt: for spotting that necklace - and its implications - 2 minutes into the first leader debate
  • ClippP said:

    Plane accidents with political VIPs do happen.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster

    With a name of antiquity such as yours I am almost tempted to accuse you of being Boris Johnson and claim my £5, though I have no idea whether he has any connection with St Albans.
    One of the seats he lost in 2019, I seem to remember. Johnson was a loser if ever there was one...

    In passing, congratulations to the Conservative Party for having rid itself at long last of that useless lump of fat. Though I shall not really believe it until I see pictures of the removal van outside No. 10. But the country does seem a bit cleaner already.

    The removal vans were there days ago and well covered in the media as he decamped to Chequers
  • Unionism is now a rump of weirdos, bigots and amateur Photoshoppers.



    Many on the Unionist right just can't seem to see that, even if they're able to oppose a referendum in the short-term by being *shudder* muscular, that their actions increase the likelihood of independence in the long-term if a referendum were to happen.

    Last night, even I was wondering where my own vote would go. I've always maintained that the Union works better for Scotland than independence, and regardless my 'heart' (in the heart Vs head debate) lies with the Union also. But what happens if the head starts saying independence instead?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Public view Keir Starmer more favourably than Liz Truss by 10 points or more on a range of leadership traits including capability, experience, honesty, being in touch and understanding the problems facing Britain: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/keir-starmer-leads-liz-truss-range-leadership-characteristics https://twitter.com/IpsosUK/status/1567051683397615617/photo/1
  • F1: backed Sainz at 14 each way to top qualifying.

    He's been on good form lately, 2nd in Spa and within a tent of pole (but 3rd) in the Netherlands.

    Come race day, I think the Red Bull will again be very hard to beat.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    eristdoof said:

    theakes said:

    Can someone explain to me the extravagance of Johnson and Truss flying in separate jets at our expense and no doubt separate cars to Balmoral; Not a good message on saving money.
    They could have gone together and one waited whilst the other left the Queens presence and then come back together.

    I expect it was a decision taken by security, not the PM. Same as the US president and VP not flying on the same plane.

    I do think the other options were better though - Johnson gets to fly up, but make his own way home and the reverse for Truss...
    It's not clear to me why Johnson had to be there in Person. A video conference with the Queen would be OK. Any paperwork could be carried on the plane carrying Truss. I can understand why the new Primeminister should have to meet the Monarch in persn, but not the outgoing one.
    I have no issue with the resignation in person. Whatever one thinks of Johnson, he has been PM for three years and is entitled to a final meeting with the Queen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Public view Keir Starmer more favourably than Liz Truss by 10 points or more on a range of leadership traits including capability, experience, honesty, being in touch and understanding the problems facing Britain: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/keir-starmer-leads-liz-truss-range-leadership-characteristics https://twitter.com/IpsosUK/status/1567051683397615617/photo/1

    Silly polls when Truss only takes office today

    Check on them in the next month and onwards

    And seems the pollster agrees

    These numbers lay bare the political challenge facing Liz Truss as she enters Downing Street. We know that the public are concerned about the direction of the country and the rising cost of living and Truss starts behind Starmer on a host of leadership attributes. However, this is before she takes office. Once in post, the new Prime Minister will have the opportunity to set the agenda and begin to turn things around. Time will tell if she takes it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    Sandpit said:

    Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral

    That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
    BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
    It looks like they’re not allowed to be in the air at the same time. Boris’s plane is about to land in Aberdeen, and Liz’s plane about to take off from Northolt.
    Not allowed by who? Johnson is the PM and has executive power. The travel arrangements are whatever he says they are. The two Falcon 900 movements are obviously because neither of the narcissists can bear to slum it and travel in a lesser fashion that the other and because they despise each other.
  • kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One can perhaps exaggerate what small gestures say about a person. Still, Truss's failure to turn to Sunak and shake his hand before going up to give her speech yesterday was small-minded (if deliberate) and rude (if not).

    How hard is it to get this sort of stuff right, especially for someone who has been in politics as long as she has?

    Didn't look at her husband either. Just up and off like a whippet!
    She has what she wants. The glory of being PM - power, patronage, control.

    I agree with @Cyclefree about watching someone's behaviour and their involuntary gestures as an indication of their attitudes and personality. On that basis, I am not expecting much from Ms Truss.
  • Unpopular said:

    Unionism is now a rump of weirdos, bigots and amateur Photoshoppers.



    Many on the Unionist right just can't seem to see that, even if they're able to oppose a referendum in the short-term by being *shudder* muscular, that their actions increase the likelihood of independence in the long-term if a referendum were to happen.

    Last night, even I was wondering where my own vote would go. I've always maintained that the Union works better for Scotland than independence, and regardless my 'heart' (in the heart Vs head debate) lies with the Union also. But what happens if the head starts saying independence instead?
    Fair play for admitting it.
    I’ve always assumed ‘heart’ Unionists were immovable just as ‘heart’ Nats are in the other direction, but…
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral

    That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
    BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
    It looks like they’re not allowed to be in the air at the same time. Boris’s plane is about to land in Aberdeen, and Liz’s plane about to take off from Northolt.
    Not allowed by who? Johnson is the PM and has executive power. The travel arrangements are whatever he says they are. The two Falcon 900 movements are obviously because neither of the narcissists can bear to slum it and travel in a lesser fashion that the other and because they despise each other.
    Even the BBC said it was for “security reasons”.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,230
    Morning all. I’ve finally been caught by the coof, which feels a lot like the “not-coof” I had three weeks ago. Annoyingly this might delay my trip down to see my parents at the end of the week. Not feeling too bad, just tired and sinusy and my LFD wasn’t hugely strong so fingers crossed it goes quickly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Metaphor klaxon: Truss Force One stuck in holding pattern 🤣 https://twitter.com/tc1415/status/1567087433711321090/photo/1
  • Energy industry source who has seen Liz Truss's energy bailout plan: "as an opening statement it’s a pretty big fuck you to everyone who was whinging about new government being a bunch of ideologues."

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1567085502624403456
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Scott_xP said:

    Metaphor klaxon: Truss Force One stuck in holding pattern 🤣 https://twitter.com/tc1415/status/1567087433711321090/photo/1

    It’s the pilot drawing a cock and balls in the sky!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    I’m in a peculiar but fairly charming town square in the tiny Alentejano village of Odeceixe

    It’s full of a strange mix of old Portuguese hombres, surfy eurokids smoking weed, and north European blonde boho tattooed rich families with exuberant tiny kids speaking impeccable English tho half of them are Dutch or German

    It’s like Baja California meets Glastonbury in a piazza in Portmeirion

    Hard to capture the unique atmos in a photo



  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,345
    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    Eabhal said:

    If anyone is wondering, I decided not to head up to Deeside today due to forecast thunder and lightning.

    Been caught out once before and it is a deeply unpleasant experience.

    I landed at Gatwick early in the hours of the morning yesterday in spectacular fork lightning, heavy hail and turbulence. It was interesting although I have had worse including:

    a) Emergency landing at Gatwick (damaged undercarriage on take off)
    b) Aborted takeoff at Gatwick (no idea why)
    c) Emergency landing at Bicester in a glider (winch launch partial failure so not getting enough height for a circuit)
    d) Sudden violent single gain/loss in height (no explanation given as to why our dinner and all the staff ended up on the floor). This was the most scary, although probably the least dangerous.
    That’s quite the record! A and B are relatively routine, C is very routine indeed (I’ve done it at least a dozen times, as the pilot).

    D is the most likely to result in injuries, which is why you should always put your seat belt on when the light is illuminated. Several dozen cabin crew and numerous passengers are injured every year, flying around the cabin or getting hit by a trolley in severe turbulence.
    a) Resulted in a flypast the tower and meeting some very nice firemen, but otherwise it was ok

    b) Resulted in me parking my car at Gatwick, but otherwise the airport played no part in my trip after that, as I eventually was transported to Heathrow by coach to takeoff.

    c) I was completely oblivious as to what was happening. I thought I had really got the hang of these winch launches as it was so gentle this time only to have the instructor inform me he was taking over and we would be landing in a field.

    d) It was huge. We had been warned to put seat belts on, but little happened and then it felt like we had dropped miles, but I suspect we had actually gone up because everything went to the floor including all the staff (I assume they are trained to do that but it didn't look voluntary). The trolleys were the really scary bit after the initial stomach feeling. They weren't being pushed around but there was an enormous crashing sound from behind and stuff seemed to have broken loose or hadn't been secured well enough.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,146
    Unpopular said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204

    "Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"

    One parliamentary source said if the cost of a freeze was met by landlords the policy would cost the Government nothing.

    That'll work well with increasing mortgage rates.....
    I feel like this is going to trash the rental sector in Scotland. A lot of people, especially on the left, are very hostile to the whole sector but, speaking as someone who has rented extensively, I don't want it destroyed, I want it fit for purpose and abuses in the system stopped. I have no problem with the old woman who rented me a flat, at a decent price, which allowed me to have a place to live for years, however I was less impressed by the green-voting landlady who kicked me out to list the property on AirBnB...

    Anything that will reduce rental stock, in areas where the availability of property might not be able to keep up demand, is likely to increase scarcity and competition. This will increase prices, either legally or illegally, and we will see more 'bidding over the asking price' for rental properties. Those that don't just get sold, that is.

    I know BTLs sit at the right hand of Hitler/the Devil for some, but not everyone is in a position to buy nor wants to be tied down by property. While it doesn't make long-term financial sense to hand over your cash to pay someone else's mortgage, landlords provide a service in exchange for money, a pretty vital one imo. Squeezing the sector until the pips squeak is not likely to benefit tenants.
    The history of rent control schemes tells us exactly what will happen. Lots of landlords will stop renting property. The history in New York, for example, is fun reading.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,308

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One can perhaps exaggerate what small gestures say about a person. Still, Truss's failure to turn to Sunak and shake his hand before going up to give her speech yesterday was small-minded (if deliberate) and rude (if not).

    How hard is it to get this sort of stuff right, especially for someone who has been in politics as long as she has?

    Didn't look at her husband either. Just up and off like a whippet!
    She has what she wants. The glory of being PM - power, patronage, control.

    I agree with @Cyclefree about watching someone's behaviour and their involuntary gestures as an indication of their attitudes and personality. On that basis, I am not expecting much from Ms Truss.
    The husband wasn't particularly demonstrative either!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Excellent hire in razor-sharp @mjhsinclair to be Chief Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister.

    A one person think -tank much like his new boss.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1567088465996562432


    Hmmmm, who was the last "one person think tank" ushered into Downing Street to sort things out...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    edited September 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Metaphor klaxon: Truss Force One stuck in holding pattern 🤣 https://twitter.com/tc1415/status/1567087433711321090/photo/1

    It’s the pilot drawing a cock and balls in the sky!
    I noticed a lot of the Bristow helicopters were circling too.

    The Manchester Airport drone made a comeback?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Outgoing head of Downing St comms Guto Harri reflects on his time at Number 10 in a LinkedIn post -notes the Conservative party's "brutal" appetite for self-harm https://twitter.com/camillahmturner/status/1567088637514219521/photo/1
  • Leon said:

    I’m in a peculiar but fairly charming town square in the tiny Alentejano village of Odeceixe

    It’s full of a strange mix of old Portuguese hombres, surfy eurokids smoking weed, and north European blonde boho tattooed rich families with exuberant tiny kids speaking impeccable English tho half of them are Dutch or German

    It’s like Baja California meets Glastonbury in a piazza in Portmeirion

    Hard to capture the unique atmos in a photo



    Slight vibe of a Solihull beer garden I was in a few weeks ago tbh.
  • MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
    Although according to this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/

    in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
    It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.

    It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
    There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.
    I do enjoy the new line about Brexit causing European dependence on Russian energy. It's almost as if there's an agenda.
    It’s a bit like that wonderful G K Chesterton poem mocking F.E. Smith for an overwrought statement saying that the Welsh Disestablishment Bill has shocked all the Christians in Europe.

    “Russian peasants round their pope
    Huddled, Smith,
    Hear about it all, I hope,
    Don't they, Smith?
    In the mountain hamlets clothing
    Peaks beyond Caucasian pales,
    Where Establishment means nothing
    And they never heard of Wales,
    Do they read it all in Hansard
    With a crib to read it with --
    'Welsh Tithes: Dr Clifford Answered.'
    Really, Smith?”
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798

    Unpopular said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204

    "Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"

    One parliamentary source said if the cost of a freeze was met by landlords the policy would cost the Government nothing.

    That'll work well with increasing mortgage rates.....
    I feel like this is going to trash the rental sector in Scotland. A lot of people, especially on the left, are very hostile to the whole sector but, speaking as someone who has rented extensively, I don't want it destroyed, I want it fit for purpose and abuses in the system stopped. I have no problem with the old woman who rented me a flat, at a decent price, which allowed me to have a place to live for years, however I was less impressed by the green-voting landlady who kicked me out to list the property on AirBnB...

    Anything that will reduce rental stock, in areas where the availability of property might not be able to keep up demand, is likely to increase scarcity and competition. This will increase prices, either legally or illegally, and we will see more 'bidding over the asking price' for rental properties. Those that don't just get sold, that is.

    I know BTLs sit at the right hand of Hitler/the Devil for some, but not everyone is in a position to buy nor wants to be tied down by property. While it doesn't make long-term financial sense to hand over your cash to pay someone else's mortgage, landlords provide a service in exchange for money, a pretty vital one imo. Squeezing the sector until the pips squeak is not likely to benefit tenants.
    The history of rent control schemes tells us exactly what will happen. Lots of landlords will stop renting property. The history in New York, for example, is fun reading.
    We studied the Paris version at uni. Not pretty.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Metaphor klaxon: Truss Force One stuck in holding pattern 🤣 https://twitter.com/tc1415/status/1567087433711321090/photo/1

    CFIT into Ben Macdui coming up... Johnson back as PM by the time Emmerdale comes on.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Metaphor klaxon: Truss Force One stuck in holding pattern 🤣 https://twitter.com/tc1415/status/1567087433711321090/photo/1

    It’s the pilot drawing a cock and balls in the sky!
    I noticed a lot of the Bristow helicopters were circling too.

    The Manchester Airport drone made a comeback?
    Oh there is some lightning up there too
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264

    Energy industry source who has seen Liz Truss's energy bailout plan: "as an opening statement it’s a pretty big fuck you to everyone who was whinging about new government being a bunch of ideologues."

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1567085502624403456

    There seems to be some debate now about what the plans actually are.
  • Some football betting thoughts, for what they're worth:

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/09/la-liga-and-bundesliga-thoughts.html
  • Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Metaphor klaxon: Truss Force One stuck in holding pattern 🤣 https://twitter.com/tc1415/status/1567087433711321090/photo/1

    It’s the pilot drawing a cock and balls in the sky!
    I noticed a lot of the Bristow helicopters were circling too.

    The Manchester Airport drone made a comeback?
    Aren't there thunder storms in the area?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    Outgoing head of Downing St comms Guto Harri reflects on his time at Number 10 in a LinkedIn post -notes the Conservative party's "brutal" appetite for self-harm https://twitter.com/camillahmturner/status/1567088637514219521/photo/1

    Good to see a head of comms who writes "the dye was cast."

    A sure sign of a government that has run out of woad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Metaphor klaxon: Truss Force One stuck in holding pattern 🤣 https://twitter.com/tc1415/status/1567087433711321090/photo/1

    It’s the pilot drawing a cock and balls in the sky!
    I noticed a lot of the Bristow helicopters were circling too.

    The Manchester Airport drone made a comeback?
    The weather is foggy, with storms forecast, so it might be some lightning over the field they had to sit out.

    KRF16 on final now, should land in a couple of minutes.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460
    Sandpit said:

    Plane accidents with political VIPs do happen.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster

    That was a textbook VIP accident. A combination of what pilots call ‘get-there-itis’, and that it was a military flight with the boss of the pilots, and his boss too, all sitting in the cockpit.

    Lots of pressure to land the plane despite the thunderstorm, rather than be sensible pilots and divert as they were trained.
    Also Dag Hammarskjold in 1961.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Leon said:

    I’m in a peculiar but fairly charming town square in the tiny Alentejano village of Odeceixe

    It’s full of a strange mix of old Portuguese hombres, surfy eurokids smoking weed, and north European blonde boho tattooed rich families with exuberant tiny kids speaking impeccable English tho half of them are Dutch or German

    It’s like Baja California meets Glastonbury in a piazza in Portmeirion

    Hard to capture the unique atmos in a photo



    Slight vibe of a Solihull beer garden I was in a few weeks ago tbh.
    This whole coast is quite libertine and hedonistic. A secret bohemian hideaway

    It’s often jarring. Because it looks like normal impoverished-but-quaint Portugal, with old people sleeping in the sun by peeling whitewashed houses, then you turn a corner and there’s five Danish kids playing flutes and six British surfers vaping marijuana and a Polish artist building a studio

    I approve
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    So close, but the pilot ruined it all with a left turn. https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1567089849995345920/photo/1



    "And if you think that's a massive package, wait til you see my energy plan"
  • Unpopular said:

    Unionism is now a rump of weirdos, bigots and amateur Photoshoppers.



    Many on the Unionist right just can't seem to see that, even if they're able to oppose a referendum in the short-term by being *shudder* muscular, that their actions increase the likelihood of independence in the long-term if a referendum were to happen.

    Last night, even I was wondering where my own vote would go. I've always maintained that the Union works better for Scotland than independence, and regardless my 'heart' (in the heart Vs head debate) lies with the Union also. But what happens if the head starts saying independence instead?
    Fair play for admitting it.
    I’ve always assumed ‘heart’ Unionists were immovable just as ‘heart’ Nats are in the other direction, but…
    I think not, because the decision for independence is multi-faceted. I mean, I have a lot of sympathy for the Union and I would be sad to see it dissolve (or whatever would happen) in the event of a hypothetical Yes vote, regardless of how I voted (of course, by the time I'm voting for it, independence is likely guaranteed a pretty big win). My heart might always be Unionist (pumping weaker and more sclerotic over time, perhaps, though I hope not) but if the argument for the head swings decisively towards independence, then I have my own future to think about.

    In the end, I think it would come down to which side can persuade people that their interests and the interests of Scotland are better served by either Independence or Union. I know a few Unionists who would vote for independence, while feeling attached to the Union, if they felt it would be better for them. There are also those on the Nationalist side who want independence but feel that the economic case (as an example) isn't there and don't want to take the risk.
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