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  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Looking back, the turning point in the polls was last summer. I don't think anyone is sure why, but it correlates with when inflation started to overtake pay rises.
  • No Prime Minster has squandered so much, so quickly. All political careers end in failure, they say. But Johnson's really didn't have to. It has, though.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    Even R4 is talking about Boris coming back as PM in the future. That idea is now firmly planted.

    Also - there is kissing hands, just not today apparently. Happens at privy council.
  • darkage said:

    darkage said:


    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    I agree.

    And punters agree.

    Liz Truss exit year:

    2025 or later 2.86
    2024 3
    2023 5
    2022 15.5

    The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.

    "Her only hope"?

    There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.

    Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
    Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.

    I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.

    There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
    I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
    I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas.
    Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from?
    All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny.
    How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west?
    If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China.
    I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime.
    Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine.
    So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia.
    The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.


    Trouble for Russia is that China has eyes on Russian territory, and is probably more of a threat than the West, unless you count Ukraine and Crimea which, of course, Putin does.
    You would have thought that China would be seen as a threat, but Russia doesn't really act as if this is the case.
    It may well be the case that Russia can ultimately coexist with China (perhaps as a client state) more effectively than it can co-exist with the west.
    China doesn't issue any demands about 'human rights' for instance.
    Navalny was briefly stripped of his prisoner of conscence status by Amnesty International due to decades old homophobia.
    The more the west goes in a 'woke' direction, the more it ultimately veers away from Russia.
    It is possible however that this could change if Trump comes back in 2024.
    To a point, but Russia has military bases in the East for a reason. Indeed, one of Russia's problems is that it is too big for its conventional forces to defend; they cannot be in two (or four) places at once, and those places are too far apart.

    China is not going to war (probably) but it can splash the cash. There has been recent movement of ex-Soviet Central Asian republics ("stan countries") closer to China's economic orbit while Putin's attention was on the EU tempting the Baltic states.

    Kazakhstan says China's Xi to visit, in first foreign trip since pandemic http://reut.rs/3QcngrK

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1566845303096999938
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Just to check, you do mean 'the annexation of Crimea' not 'The Crimean War?' I think it's a bit harsh to suggest an event that ended as long ago as 1856 should have warned us off Russia...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073

    Chris said:

    - ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”

    There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.

    I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
    She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.
    This is my Law of the Internet. No matter how incontrovertibly, blindingly obvious something is, someone online will argue the opposite.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,355
    edited September 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    - ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”

    There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.

    I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
    She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.
    This is my Law of the Internet. No matter how incontrovertibly, blindingly obvious something is, someone online will argue the opposite.
    LOL. Really?

    Have you considered that something might appear "incontrovertibly, blindingly obvious" to you, but that you might, just possibly, be wrong?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Sandpit said:

    What a sore loser.

    This is glorious.

    You’re watching Sunak, while the rest of us watch Johnson?
    Boris: “This is it folks..”

    “Soon I’ll be passing the baton. It turned out to be a relay race - where they changed the rules half way through” ... not quite going quietly

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1567038103327580160
    Not "That's all, folks".
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    OllyT said:

    Apologies for using the site for a personal issue. We have a problem. We have arrived in France and can't make calls/texts from our mobile. It is an iPhone on a Vodafone pay-as-you -go contract. The settings seem fine and there is a healthy balance on the account. We were in France/Italy for 3 weeks in June, no problems. I'd be eternally grateful if any tech savvy PBer could suggest anything that might help out.

    That sounds odd - googling it I don't see much except the need to dial +44 (or whatever country code) rather than 0044. It may be worth picking up a cheap local phone, though, to avoid the roaming charge when you figure out the problem - BT (amazingly) offer free roaming, but many companies don't.
  • ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    R4 said that Truss is HMs 15th PM

    The first 5 took 10 years (1953-1963)
    The last 5 took 12 years (2010-2022)

    The middle 5 took 37 years (1970-2007)

    Well, they're totally wrong, because the first five were Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Home and Wilson. Wilson became PM in October 1964, twelve years into HM's reign.

    The next five were Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair, so 27 years (not counting Wilson twice).

    And Truss is the fourth PM since 2010, not the fifth, so it was 15 years since Brown.

    What fool came up with that stat?
    The sort of fool who counts from the Coronation in 1953? Elizabeth became Queen when her father died in February 1952.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    Congratulations to Liz Truss.

    She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.

    I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.

    We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.

    On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.

    Given Sturgeon is squealing about independence and indyref2 every 5 minutes and breaking away from the hated UK, let us not forget it takes 2 to tango. She can have respect and friendship with a Scotland in the UK but not with the SNP
  • Before you leave for London Ms Truss, would you be kind and accompany me into the garden for a few moments?



    Look at those majestic mountains Ms Truss. Take in the mighty Scots pines and the gorgeous lochan there. This is my realm, my land, and these are my people. You are my prime minister and Ms Sturgeon is my first minister. I ask her to form my government in Edinburgh as I ask you to form my government in London. I expect and request that my ministers respect and interact with each other. You shall not ignore each other.

    Respect my realm Ms Truss. Our allotted time is brief, and we must leave intact our inheritance to the next generations.

    Goodbye Ms Truss.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    R4 said that Truss is HMs 15th PM

    The first 5 took 10 years (1953-1963)
    The last 5 took 12 years (2010-2022)

    The middle 5 took 37 years (1970-2007)

    Well, they're totally wrong, because the first five were Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Home and Wilson. Wilson became PM in October 1964, twelve years into HM's reign.

    The next five were Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair, so 27 years (not counting Wilson twice).

    And Truss is the fourth PM since 2010, not the fifth, so it was 15 years since Brown.

    What fool came up with that stat?
    The sort of fool who counts from the Coronation in 1953? Elizabeth became Queen when her father died in February 1952.
    Still doesn't explain their miscount on Wilson!
  • Cicero said:

    Autumn is coming fast to the Baltic. Still dry and sunny, but the winter chill is slowly returning. The Estonians are pretty relaxed about the advent of Liz Truss as UK PM. She has met the key leaders here on numerous occasions and has generally said the right things. There is no expectation that Britain will suddenly go rogue on the critical issue of support for Ukraine. There are certain potential members of the UK cabinet who are not well thought of however, so I think that the final assessment will depend on her choice of ministers.

    I was speaking to some Estonians close to the military last night, and for the first time there was almost pity in their comments about Russia. Those who have contacts on the other side of the border describe the current military and political problems in Moscow as "close to terminal". The move to cut off the gas supply to Europe is seen as a mark of their utter desperation. The recruitment of mental patients, getting shells from North Korea etc also reflecting the break down of the Russian armed forces. It is thought that at least 20,000 Russian troops are now trapped on the right bank of the Dnipro and they are being caught in a mincing machine that is slowly, but inevitably leading to the breakdown of their cohesion.

    Ramzan Kadyrov, the despicable Putinist leader of the the Chechens is a critical figure in the regime, and it has been Chechen shock troops who have been used to drive Russian units forward, with their reputation for disgusting brutality being a threat at least as much to their own side as to the Ukrainians. Therefore the announcement that Kadyrov will be "taking a long break" may be an early sign of growing uncertainty and instability at the centre. The regime has relied on balancing the forces of different groups: Army, FSB, Razgvardia and the Chechens. Any sense that the balance is shifting could indicate that the regime faces serious internal problems. "Watch this space", as they say.

    One thing is for sure: Russian military problems are getting worse by the day. For the first time in months the Russians are trying to restart talks, to try to hold what they have before any further defeat alters the facts on the ground. Yet, as what is left of the harvest comes in and the leaves turn, the Ukrainians are in no mood to accept a diplomatic coup de main. Though the casualties in Ukraine are only now beginning to emerge (its now closing on a million civilians) the challenges for Putin are also growing, and no one, either in Ukraine or in any of the front line states has any interest in easing that position. As long as Liz Truss continues to support that view, there will be few issues that can complicate the good UK-front line relationship. As even the Germans come onside with significant weapons now being delivered, Putin may have made yet another miscalculation.

    The quickest route to easing the cost of living crisis is the defeat of V.V. Putin´s criminal aggression.

    Thank you for a very interesting post
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:


    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    I agree.

    And punters agree.

    Liz Truss exit year:

    2025 or later 2.86
    2024 3
    2023 5
    2022 15.5

    The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.

    "Her only hope"?

    There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.

    Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
    Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.

    I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.

    There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
    I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
    I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas.
    Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from?
    All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny.
    How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west?
    If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China.
    I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime.
    Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine.
    So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia.
    The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.


    I disagree.

    At some point, Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine comes to an end. Them buying ammunition from the North Koreans and raiding the asylums for soliders suggests that that might be nearer than we imagine.

    What happens then?

    Well, I would suggest that Putin is unlikely to survive defeat in Ukraine.

    But changing the leader doesn't change the situation on the ground. They can be as nationalist as they like, but reality has to intervene.

    If Putin falls, the next leader has to find some kind of peace with the West, because Russia depends on Western technology to extract the oil and gas that they sell to the World.
    I don't see this.
    It seems like Ukraine is basically a mercenary invasion, the soldiers are poor people enticed by high wages. There is no significant conscription or general mobilisation.
    The fact that there are adverts in odd places is not really all that significant in the scheme of things. There are lots of 'anecdotes' and 'reports' but not too much weight should be put on them, in my opinion.
    If the position is really bad, to the point where it is endangering his position, Putin can quit and declare victory at any point, as the situation stands.
    Obviously, he was expecting a 2014 style cakewalk and this has not gone to plan. But Putin has adapted to the situation and is still really holding all the cards here as far as I can see.
    I think that he is calculating that he can sow greater discord and chaos in the west (and across the world) by continuing the war, and this outweighs any domestic difficulties that may occur in consequence.

    As an example of this, Putin has played a blinder with the gas prices thing, Zarah Sultana leading 'enough is enough' and Boris Johnson was telling them that it is all the price we have to pay for 'beating back' Putin,
    Now Liz Truss comes along and says that the solution is in tax cuts for the rich.
    I disagree with every part of your analysis.

    Firstly, whether it is "mercenary" or not, the Russian troops in Ukraine have to be resupplied, with food and weapons and ammunition. If that ceases, their ability to fight disappears.

    Secondly, the Russians are trying to just hold on right now. And it's not going so well. It's entirely possible that thousands - perhaps as many as ten thousand - Russians on the West side of the Dneiper are going to end up captured.

    And on the gas price, yes the Russians have sown discord.

    But they've also accelerated the move of economies away from gas (Germany stopping their planned nuclear shutdowns for example), as well as ensuring that a host of new LNG projects go forward.

    That means that the share of energy provided by natural gas in the future will be lower, and Russia's market share will be smaller. And the longer the Russians take to come back to the table, the worse their situation will be, because those projects will be live.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    I assume LT got the train or commercial flight this morning, and will take the PM’s plane back to London.

    Wonder what Johnson’s plans are for the day? I’m reminded of the iconic picture of John Major at The Oval in 1997.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    When you write “us” I presume you mean “Germany”?

    And as for doing nothing after the Crimea takeover, when do people think British training of the Ukrainian military started?
    As we are discovering, though, we're almost as impacted as the Germans, because now they're competing with us to buy scarce cargoes of non-Russian LNG.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    Before you leave for London Ms Truss, would you be kind and accompany me into the garden for a few moments?



    Look at those majestic mountains Ms Truss. Take in the mighty Scots pines and the gorgeous lochan there. This is my realm, my land, and these are my people. You are my prime minister and Ms Sturgeon is my first minister. I ask her to form my government in Edinburgh as I ask you to form my government in London. I expect and request that my ministers respect and interact with each other. You shall not ignore each other.

    Respect my realm Ms Truss. Our allotted time is brief, and we must leave intact our inheritance to the next generations.

    Goodbye Ms Truss.

    Oh dear, somebody else who doesn't understand the basic principles of devolution.

    By the way, why is the Swedish krona dropping like a stone at the moment?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Eabhal said:

    Even R4 is talking about Boris coming back as PM in the future. That idea is now firmly planted.

    Also - there is kissing hands, just not today apparently. Happens at privy council.

    Yes, I thought the coverage overly generous from our impartial broadcaster.

    OTOH, telling it like it is - the liar is now out on his arse - would probably give rise to rather more complaints.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    The cost of living crisis is a huge threat - directly linked to Ukraine and covid. Johnson has failed totally to engage with it, let alone deal with it.

    Only the £37bn energy bill scheme from April.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer
  • Morning all! An intensely busy (and productive) 2 day business trip got me home at midnight last night, so have missed all of the fun.

    This photo of Truss being used in all the newspapers reminds me of the demented performance John Simm gave as Harold Saxon on Doctor Who.

    If the Truss plan for the winter is to unleash the Toclafane to slaughter 10% of the population and thus cure the energy shortage, you'll know she really is The Master.
  • People seem to forget what massive implications Covid had, large swathes of the population stayed at home for months all funded by HMG. Posters seem to think 2020-2022 was an easy time to be PM. In Blair's fist 2-3 years nothing really happened

    I doubt any future PM will have the issues that BJ has had to deal with.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    In another sign of Lord Frost's negotiating genius, it seems as if talks with Team Truss have ended with him failing to secure a job in government.

    I'm almost starting to like Liz Truss. No Patel, Dorries, Elliot, Johnson, Frost.

    Shame about Mogg, Braverman and Truss herself...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Every western nation has high inflation, indeed Spain and the Netherlands higher than us because of the sanctions imposed after the Ukraine war. Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic.

  • novanova Posts: 472

    Chris said:

    - ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”

    There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.

    I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
    She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.

    She looks human.

    Far more people are like Truss - 'strange and awkward', as you put it - than polished and 'normal'. Especially when in the glare of the media.
    "Human" is exactly the word that popped into my head. She probably is strange and awkward, and I'm genuinely worried about how much further she'll mess the country up, but this picture catches her mid laugh and while she might not think it's the most flattering close up, she looks fine.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,739

    As I suggested earlier, Truss's refusal to be interviewed or give hints about her policies in her first speech was a deliberate plan to launch the ideas with a bang once she was in office. I don't see how she can fail to get a substantial bounce with today's papers - merely the sense that someone energetic has taken over in Number 10 should cheer people immensely. I don't see a problem with the photos, either.

    The problems will come as inflation continues to rise - she can't plug everything with long-term debt without a real market crisis. But I do expect Opinium at least to give a Tory lead this month, before the party conferences move the agenda on.

    If she produces a energy package that is generally well-received, in addition to the bounce you refer to, would you go for a snap election if you were her?
  • Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    The cost of living crisis is a huge threat - directly linked to Ukraine and covid. Johnson has failed totally to engage with it, let alone deal with it.
    That's wrong, isn't it? He has had several budgets since Covid, and he has at least tried to get the economy over that trauma (you could argue that the measures were inconsequential or wrong, but he has tried).

    He was also in a no-win situation in recent months. Articles slated him for signing things that tied the hands of his successors, whilst others said he wasn't making decisions. Let's see what Truss does over the next few weeks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    edited September 2022

    Morning all! An intensely busy (and productive) 2 day business trip got me home at midnight last night, so have missed all of the fun.

    This photo of Truss being used in all the newspapers reminds me of the demented performance John Simm gave as Harold Saxon on Doctor Who.

    If the Truss plan for the winter is to unleash the Toclafane to slaughter 10% of the population and thus cure the energy shortage, you'll know she really is The Master.

    I thought male members of the cabinet called her their mistress?

    Edit - I never realised that she is, in fact, Ms Truss to us all.

    Appropriate, given the screwing we'll get on her watch.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    When you write “us” I presume you mean “Germany”?

    While we are dependent on gas for over half our power generation, and much of our heating, we are as dependent as they are, even if virtually none of our gas comes from Russia.

    To pretend otherwise is silly.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Cameron was an awful PM. Lazy and complacent
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Looking back, the turning point in the polls was last summer. I don't think anyone is sure why, but it correlates with when inflation started to overtake pay rises.
    Actually it coincides with Patersongate, wallpapergate and partygate together with sleaze that ended his Premiership and was entirely self inflicted

    It was this that lost my support for Johnson, not brexit, covid or Ukraine which I was content with
  • Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    The cost of living crisis is a huge threat - directly linked to Ukraine and covid. Johnson has failed totally to engage with it, let alone deal with it.
    That's wrong, isn't it? He has had several budgets since Covid, and he has at least tried to get the economy over that trauma (you could argue that the measures were inconsequential or wrong, but he has tried).

    He was also in a no-win situation in recent months. Articles slated him for signing things that tied the hands of his successors, whilst others said he wasn't making decisions. Let's see what Truss does over the next few weeks.

    He told us inflation was not going to be a problem. That is a total failure to engage with reality.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    An article which apparently confirms what we discussed on here yesterday. Italian food may be following French food into stagnation


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/even-hungry-migrants-won-t-eat-the-food-in-italy

    I’m not completely convinced. But on my last trip to Florence/Rome in August the food was notably mediocre, almost everywhere

    Like France, however, it may just be relative: a case of other countries catching up, as against absolute decline
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Looking back, the turning point in the polls was last summer. I don't think anyone is sure why, but it correlates with when inflation started to overtake pay rises.
    Actually it coincides with Patersongate, wallpapergate and partygate together with sleaze that ended his Premiership and was entirely self inflicted

    It was this that lost my support for Johnson, not brexit, covid or Ukraine which I was content with
    Can I just check, you were content with his response to them? Not the events themselves?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:


    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    I agree.

    And punters agree.

    Liz Truss exit year:

    2025 or later 2.86
    2024 3
    2023 5
    2022 15.5

    The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.

    "Her only hope"?

    There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.

    Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
    Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.

    I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.

    There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
    I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
    I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas.
    Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from?
    All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny.
    How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west?
    If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China.
    I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime.
    Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine.
    So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia.
    The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.


    I disagree.

    At some point, Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine comes to an end. Them buying ammunition from the North Koreans and raiding the asylums for soliders suggests that that might be nearer than we imagine.

    What happens then?

    Well, I would suggest that Putin is unlikely to survive defeat in Ukraine.

    But changing the leader doesn't change the situation on the ground. They can be as nationalist as they like, but reality has to intervene.

    If Putin falls, the next leader has to find some kind of peace with the West, because Russia depends on Western technology to extract the oil and gas that they sell to the World.
    I don't see this.
    It seems like Ukraine is basically a mercenary invasion, the soldiers are poor people enticed by high wages. There is no significant conscription or general mobilisation.
    The fact that there are adverts in odd places is not really all that significant in the scheme of things. There are lots of 'anecdotes' and 'reports' but not too much weight should be put on them, in my opinion.
    If the position is really bad, to the point where it is endangering his position, Putin can quit and declare victory at any point, as the situation stands.
    Obviously, he was expecting a 2014 style cakewalk and this has not gone to plan. But Putin has adapted to the situation and is still really holding all the cards here as far as I can see.
    I think that he is calculating that he can sow greater discord and chaos in the west (and across the world) by continuing the war, and this outweighs any domestic difficulties that may occur in consequence.

    As an example of this, Putin has played a blinder with the gas prices thing, Zarah Sultana leading 'enough is enough' and Boris Johnson was telling them that it is all the price we have to pay for 'beating back' Putin,
    Now Liz Truss comes along and says that the solution is in tax cuts for the rich.
    I disagree with every part of your analysis.

    Firstly, whether it is "mercenary" or not, the Russian troops in Ukraine have to be resupplied, with food and weapons and ammunition. If that ceases, their ability to fight disappears.

    Secondly, the Russians are trying to just hold on right now. And it's not going so well. It's entirely possible that thousands - perhaps as many as ten thousand - Russians on the West side of the Dneiper are going to end up captured.

    And on the gas price, yes the Russians have sown discord.

    But they've also accelerated the move of economies away from gas (Germany stopping their planned nuclear shutdowns for example), as well as ensuring that a host of new LNG projects go forward.

    That means that the share of energy provided by natural gas in the future will be lower, and Russia's market share will be smaller. And the longer the Russians take to come back to the table, the worse their situation will be, because those projects will be live.
    The last bit goes a long way to explaining Putin's desperate gamble.
    In another five years, the gas weapon will be less potent; in ten, utterly feeble.
  • ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Just to check, you do mean 'the annexation of Crimea' not 'The Crimean War?' I think it's a bit harsh to suggest an event that ended as long ago as 1856 should have warned us off Russia...
    What would Deng Xiaoping say?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Looking back, the turning point in the polls was last summer. I don't think anyone is sure why, but it correlates with when inflation started to overtake pay rises.
    Actually it coincides with Patersongate, wallpapergate and partygate together with sleaze that ended his Premiership and was entirely self inflicted

    It was this that lost my support for Johnson, not brexit, covid or Ukraine which I was content with
    It is a remarkably gradual, consistent decline. And I think it starts before Paterson.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Pioneers, kudos for originality choosing the Saxon mentality as an example of deranged behaviour in Doctor Who given recent seasons.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    edited September 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Just to check, you do mean 'the annexation of Crimea' not 'The Crimean War?' I think it's a bit harsh to suggest an event that ended as long ago as 1856 should have warned us off Russia...
    What would Deng Xiaoping say?
    I don't know, it's too early to say given he's only been dead 25 years.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    - ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”

    There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.

    I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
    She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.
    This is my Law of the Internet. No matter how incontrovertibly, blindingly obvious something is, someone online will argue the opposite.
    LOL. Really?

    Have you considered that something might appear "incontrovertibly, blindingly obvious" to you, but that you might, just possibly, be wrong?
    TBF she does look strange and awkward

    As do 99% of people

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    darkage said:

    darkage said:


    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    I agree.

    And punters agree.

    Liz Truss exit year:

    2025 or later 2.86
    2024 3
    2023 5
    2022 15.5

    The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.

    "Her only hope"?

    There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.

    Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
    Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.

    I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.

    There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
    I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
    I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas.
    Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from?
    All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny.
    How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west?
    If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China.
    I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime.
    Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine.
    So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia.
    The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.


    Trouble for Russia is that China has eyes on Russian territory, and is probably more of a threat than the West, unless you count Ukraine and Crimea which, of course, Putin does.
    You would have thought that China would be seen as a threat, but Russia doesn't really act as if this is the case.
    It may well be the case that Russia can ultimately coexist with China (perhaps as a client state) more effectively than it can co-exist with the west.
    China doesn't issue any demands about 'human rights' for instance.
    Navalny was briefly stripped of his prisoner of conscence status by Amnesty International due to decades old homophobia.
    The more the west goes in a 'woke' direction, the more it ultimately veers away from Russia.
    It is possible however that this could change if Trump comes back in 2024.
    To a point, but Russia has military bases in the East for a reason. Indeed, one of Russia's problems is that it is too big for its conventional forces to defend; they cannot be in two (or four) places at once, and those places are too far apart.

    China is not going to war (probably) but it can splash the cash. There has been recent movement of ex-Soviet Central Asian republics ("stan countries") closer to China's economic orbit while Putin's attention was on the EU tempting the Baltic states.

    Kazakhstan says China's Xi to visit, in first foreign trip since pandemic http://reut.rs/3QcngrK

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1566845303096999938
    Here starts China’s play to take control of the ‘Stans, while Russia is somewhat engaged elsewhere…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Pioneers, kudos for originality choosing the Saxon mentality as an example of deranged behaviour in Doctor Who given recent seasons.

    Perhaps like the rest of us he hasn't watched recent seasons?
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    - ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”

    There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.

    I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
    She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.
    This is my Law of the Internet. No matter how incontrovertibly, blindingly obvious something is, someone online will argue the opposite.
    That’s not the Law of the Internet. That’s the Law of Life. Vive la différence !
  • Before you leave for London Ms Truss, would you be kind and accompany me into the garden for a few moments?



    Look at those majestic mountains Ms Truss. Take in the mighty Scots pines and the gorgeous lochan there. This is my realm, my land, and these are my people. You are my prime minister and Ms Sturgeon is my first minister. I ask her to form my government in Edinburgh as I ask you to form my government in London. I expect and request that my ministers respect and interact with each other. You shall not ignore each other.

    Respect my realm Ms Truss. Our allotted time is brief, and we must leave intact our inheritance to the next generations.

    Goodbye Ms Truss.

    Except that doesn’t reflect the constitutional arrangements.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    darkage said:


    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    I agree.

    And punters agree.

    Liz Truss exit year:

    2025 or later 2.86
    2024 3
    2023 5
    2022 15.5

    The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.

    "Her only hope"?

    There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.

    Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
    Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.

    I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.

    There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
    I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
    I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas.
    Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from?
    All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny.
    How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west?
    If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China.
    I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime.
    Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine.
    So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia.
    The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.


    I think that's right. My reading of Russian politics is that there's little support for liberal pacifism - people may concede that Ukraine has proved a tougher nut than expected, but the credible alternatives to Putin, incvluding Navalny, seem uninterested in saying "sorry, we withdraw". It needs a Gorbachev to be willing to completely rethink, and there's nobody in sight like that.

    I may be wrong but I don't see Russia achieving a breakthrough, or a Ukrainian victory either (possibly an advance to Kherson, but I doubt even that). So both Putin and his putative successors, as well as Ukraine and the West, will probably have a choice of endless war or spinning a return to March borders as a victory. The suspension of the Kherson referendum may be a first sign of that - much harder to give it up if they've got a vote to integrate with Russia through, however imaginary the figures that they publish.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Cameron was an awful PM. Lazy and complacent
    The western world, by and large, was lazy and complacent. Despite being given plenty of hints as to what now governed Russia, they chose to look the other way and keep taking the money. See also China.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited September 2022
    Images of RAF Falcon 900 jet G-ZAHS at Northolt, said to be the PM’s plane.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    R4 said that Truss is HMs 15th PM

    The first 5 took 10 years (1953-1963)
    The last 5 took 12 years (2010-2022)

    The middle 5 took 37 years (1970-2007)

    Well, they're totally wrong, because the first five were Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Home and Wilson. Wilson became PM in October 1964, twelve years into HM's reign.

    The next five were Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair, so 27 years (not counting Wilson twice).

    And Truss is the fourth PM since 2010, not the fifth, so it was 15 years since Brown.

    What fool came up with that stat?
    The sort of fool who counts from the Coronation in 1953? Elizabeth became Queen when her father died in February 1952.
    Still doesn't explain their miscount on Wilson!
    True. You'd need six to get from 1970 to 2007, which is 37 years. And you can squint a bit and allow Brown in 2010. But the wrong date for the start is just silly. But then the whole thing is of little value. What point is it trying to make?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    R4 said that Truss is HMs 15th PM

    The first 5 took 10 years (1953-1963)
    The last 5 took 12 years (2010-2022)

    The middle 5 took 37 years (1970-2007)

    Well, they're totally wrong, because the first five were Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Home and Wilson. Wilson became PM in October 1964, twelve years into HM's reign.

    The next five were Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair, so 27 years (not counting Wilson twice).

    And Truss is the fourth PM since 2010, not the fifth, so it was 15 years since Brown.

    What fool came up with that stat?
    The sort of fool who counts from the Coronation in 1953? Elizabeth became Queen when her father died in February 1952.
    Still doesn't explain their miscount on Wilson!
    True. You'd need six to get from 1970 to 2007, which is 37 years. And you can squint a bit and allow Brown in 2010. But the wrong date for the start is just silly. But then the whole thing is of little value. What point is it trying to make?
    Nadine Dorries'?
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia

    As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany

    No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
    The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.


    I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit

    With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear

    If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
  • Sandpit said:

    Images of RAF Falcon 900 jet G-ZAHS at Northolt, said to be the PM’s plane.

    Taxing and about to take off
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    Stocky said:

    As I suggested earlier, Truss's refusal to be interviewed or give hints about her policies in her first speech was a deliberate plan to launch the ideas with a bang once she was in office. I don't see how she can fail to get a substantial bounce with today's papers - merely the sense that someone energetic has taken over in Number 10 should cheer people immensely. I don't see a problem with the photos, either.

    The problems will come as inflation continues to rise - she can't plug everything with long-term debt without a real market crisis. But I do expect Opinium at least to give a Tory lead this month, before the party conferences move the agenda on.

    If she produces a energy package that is generally well-received, in addition to the bounce you refer to, would you go for a snap election if you were her?
    I'd be tempted, but no. Being PM is fun for any ambitious politician, whatever the circumstances, so she's bound to want two years at it, especially if she's had a good start. Boundary changes beckon, inflation may well come down, why risk everything?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Just to check, you do mean 'the annexation of Crimea' not 'The Crimean War?' I think it's a bit harsh to suggest an event that ended as long ago as 1856 should have warned us off Russia...

    What would Deng Xiaoping say?
    I don't know, it's too early to say given he's only been dead 25 years.
    It always amuses me that such a great quote was the result of a misunderstanding
  • ydoethur said:

    Before you leave for London Ms Truss, would you be kind and accompany me into the garden for a few moments?



    Look at those majestic mountains Ms Truss. Take in the mighty Scots pines and the gorgeous lochan there. This is my realm, my land, and these are my people. You are my prime minister and Ms Sturgeon is my first minister. I ask her to form my government in Edinburgh as I ask you to form my government in London. I expect and request that my ministers respect and interact with each other. You shall not ignore each other.

    Respect my realm Ms Truss. Our allotted time is brief, and we must leave intact our inheritance to the next generations.

    Goodbye Ms Truss.

    Oh dear, somebody else who doesn't understand the basic principles of devolution.

    By the way, why is the Swedish krona dropping like a stone at the moment?
    I had no idea about that as I rely on @StuartDickson for accurate unbiased comments
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    I agree.

    I don't see why the Prime Minister would not be replaced before the next election, unless she calls an early election herself.

    If the scenario is that the government is unpopular two years from now with an election looming, then the options are replacing Truss before the election, or replacing her immediately afterwards. There is no advantage for the party in delaying the inevitable, and very little for Truss herself because there is no chance she will remain Leader of the Opposition for five years to fight the election after next.
    Leaders dont go quietly. It takes months and lots of effort, and unless they start efforts now any replacement would have very little time to establish themselves. Parties go into elections with certain losers all the the time because changing is hard.

    They're stuck with her.
  • Chris said:

    - ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”

    There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.

    I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
    She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.

    She looks human.

    Far more people are like Truss - 'strange and awkward', as you put it - than polished and 'normal'. Especially when in the glare of the media.

    You are correct. But that did not help Ed Miliband. He may well be the closest equivalent to her: clearly very smart, full of interesting ideas, socially awkward and entirely unsuited to leadership.

    Good spot!
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Looking back, the turning point in the polls was last summer. I don't think anyone is sure why, but it correlates with when inflation started to overtake pay rises.
    Actually it coincides with Patersongate, wallpapergate and partygate together with sleaze that ended his Premiership and was entirely self inflicted

    It was this that lost my support for Johnson, not brexit, covid or Ukraine which I was content with
    Sorry to say it, but you're wrong.

    Here's the chart.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Peak Boris was about June 2021, the Conservative ratings started drifting down then. Paterson, parties and Pincher gave kicks down later, sure. But they weren't when the problems started.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Pioneers, kudos for originality choosing the Saxon mentality as an example of deranged behaviour in Doctor Who given recent seasons.

    Am heading towards the end of the Matt Smith era during my reboot era rewatch. Smith was perfect as the Doctor. Much as I like Peter Capaldi as an actor I remember the reason why I haven't watched most of his being that they were awful.

    And short of "I have vanquished Satan!", the less said about Jodie Whittaker's Doctor Who Reloaded / Revelations the better.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Cameron was an awful PM. Lazy and complacent
    The western world, by and large, was lazy and complacent. Despite being given plenty of hints as to what now governed Russia, they chose to look the other way and keep taking the money. See also China.

    That’s fair. Osborne was too clever by half though
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    What utter rubbish. Boris got Brexit done, delivered the vaccines, supported people and businesses through lockdown and sent weapons and supplied to Ukraine before most world leaders and won the biggest Conservative election victory since Thatcher. Good leaving speech from him too.

    Just since WW2 Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown and May were all worse PMs than Boris.

    Boris had huge charisma and was a great leader. Unfortunately for the Tories their stupid decision to remove him means it is likely all downhill from here for them for a generation, as it was for them when they removed Thatcher in 1990 and as it was for Labour when Blair was pushed to go in 2007

    Just form a new Boris Johnson party already, you're clearly more loyal to the man than anything else.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,907

    A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).

    He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).

    There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.

    He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.

    Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.

    But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,308
    Good morning all!
    Booster-ish speech from our departing leader, typical of the man. I would not be at all surprised if he were to pop up in some awkward capacity in the near future.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Cameron was an awful PM. Lazy and complacent
    Given the economic legacy Brown left and no majority for most of his term he did OK, cutting the deficit, getting the economy growing, reforming public services, passed gay marriage for social liberals in his coalition government, helped contain IS and removed Gaddaffi. He also won in 2015 and was generally competent even if his loss of the EU referendum was his downfall
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    Sandpit said:

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    Grob Tutor from ESUAS at Leuchars.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    darkage said:


    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    I agree.

    And punters agree.

    Liz Truss exit year:

    2025 or later 2.86
    2024 3
    2023 5
    2022 15.5

    The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.

    "Her only hope"?

    There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.

    Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
    Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.

    I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.

    There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
    I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
    I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas.
    Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from?
    All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny.
    How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west?
    If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China.
    I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime.
    Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine.
    So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia.
    The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.


    I think that's right. My reading of Russian politics is that there's little support for liberal pacifism - people may concede that Ukraine has proved a tougher nut than expected, but the credible alternatives to Putin, incvluding Navalny, seem uninterested in saying "sorry, we withdraw". It needs a Gorbachev to be willing to completely rethink, and there's nobody in sight like that.

    I may be wrong but I don't see Russia achieving a breakthrough, or a Ukrainian victory either (possibly an advance to Kherson, but I doubt even that). So both Putin and his putative successors, as well as Ukraine and the West, will probably have a choice of endless war or spinning a return to March borders as a victory. The suspension of the Kherson referendum may be a first sign of that - much harder to give it up if they've got a vote to integrate with Russia through, however imaginary the figures that they publish.
    Mrs Thatcher said "you can't buck the market".

    In this case, Russia can't buck the reality on the ground in Ukraine. It's much, much harder for them, because they need to keep resupplying troops on the ground, and to keep finding fresh troops.

    Being an invader is hard. Very few succeed, especially when the defender is well supplied.

    It doesn't matter how gung ho and nationalistic leaders are, if they cannot find troops or shells or planes to throw into battle, then they will lose. Simply: your endless war option is incredibly hard for Russia to sustain.
  • HYUFD said:

    Congratulations to Liz Truss.

    She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.

    I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.

    We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.

    On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.

    Given Sturgeon is squealing about independence and indyref2 every 5 minutes and breaking away from the hated UK, let us not forget it takes 2 to tango. She can have respect and friendship with a Scotland in the UK but not with the SNP
    Hate to point out the obvious, but Scotland is in the UK, yet you Tories still refuse to respect her and maintain friendly relations. You are making your own bed, so I hope you enjoy lying in it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,933
    edited September 2022
    Anyway, the first day in office of Lying Liz. Who spent several months of endless hustings saying no to handouts, no to a big bung. Now supposedly to handout a big bung to the energy companies paid for by consumers.

    "The good news is that your energy bill isn't going to go up. The great news is we've found a way to borrow the money from commercial banks - great for fat cat bankers and shareholders - and hand it to energy companies - brilliant for bosses bonuses - and have you lot pay for it over the next decade. Not only that you WILL pay these crazy bills, you're going to pay interest on top. And you're going to get On Your Knees and thank me for doing so".

    The Harold Saxon era will be truly special. Is "Toclafane" her safe word?
  • ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Looking back, the turning point in the polls was last summer. I don't think anyone is sure why, but it correlates with when inflation started to overtake pay rises.
    Actually it coincides with Patersongate, wallpapergate and partygate together with sleaze that ended his Premiership and was entirely self inflicted

    It was this that lost my support for Johnson, not brexit, covid or Ukraine which I was content with
    Can I just check, you were content with his response to them? Not the events themselves?
    I was content with his handling of Brexit, covid and the Ukraine
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    edited September 2022


    A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).

    He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).

    There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.

    He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.

    Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.

    But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.

    Putin's regime won't fall from of a lack of food in Moscow, it will come about because they lack the resources to continue to fight in Ukraine.

    Where do the troops come from? Where do the shells? The tanks? The helicopters? The bullets?
  • OllyT said:

    Apologies for using the site for a personal issue. We have a problem. We have arrived in France and can't make calls/texts from our mobile. It is an iPhone on a Vodafone pay-as-you -go contract. The settings seem fine and there is a healthy balance on the account. We were in France/Italy for 3 weeks in June, no problems. I'd be eternally grateful if any tech savvy PBer could suggest anything that might help out.

    Did you buy a Roaming Extra? The web site says:-

    How do Pay as you go European Roaming Extras work?
    ... big snip...
    You can only make calls, send texts or use data in Zone B destinations by purchasing a European Roaming Extra.

    https://www.vodafone.co.uk/mobile/global-roaming
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited September 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    Grob Tutor from ESUAS at Leuchars.
    LOL, even I’ve flown one of those!

    He got an RAF Falcon 900, KRF18, departed Northolt 5 mins ago.
  • Eabhal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Looking back, the turning point in the polls was last summer. I don't think anyone is sure why, but it correlates with when inflation started to overtake pay rises.
    Actually it coincides with Patersongate, wallpapergate and partygate together with sleaze that ended his Premiership and was entirely self inflicted

    It was this that lost my support for Johnson, not brexit, covid or Ukraine which I was content with
    It is a remarkably gradual, consistent decline. And I think it starts before Paterson.
    It started with Patersongate for me
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,911
    Sandpit said:

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    I assume LT got the train or commercial flight this morning, and will take the PM’s plane back to London.

    Wonder what Johnson’s plans are for the day? I’m reminded of the iconic picture of John Major at The Oval in 1997.
    He's planning to splash down in a remote corner of the Pacific.

  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
    The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
    Cameron was an awful PM. Lazy and complacent
    The western world, by and large, was lazy and complacent. Despite being given plenty of hints as to what now governed Russia, they chose to look the other way and keep taking the money. See also China.

    That’s fair. Osborne was too clever by half though
    BJ's relationship with Russia is well documented, a peerage, money from various sources and of course attendance at 'that' Party in Italy in breach of Ministerial rules
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    People seem to forget what massive implications Covid had, large swathes of the population stayed at home for months all funded by HMG. Posters seem to think 2020-2022 was an easy time to be PM. In Blair's fist 2-3 years nothing really happened

    I doubt any future PM will have the issues that BJ has had to deal with.

    ... except maybe Truss. Her in-tray is creaking with some pretty awful problems.

    "Funded by HMG". No funded by the tax payer ( if not now, later) and how we laughed when we saw our taxes squandered on faulty PPE imported by friends and family of Conservative Ministers and a business bounce back scheme which seems to have been tailor made for fraudsters. Still "Boris got all the big calls right".
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:


    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Been digesting the days analysis.

    @TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.

    Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.

    Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.

    Not the MPs first pick.

    Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.

    Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.

    Boris in the wings.

    Etc etc.

    I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.

    So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:

    The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.

    I agree.

    And punters agree.

    Liz Truss exit year:

    2025 or later 2.86
    2024 3
    2023 5
    2022 15.5

    The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.

    "Her only hope"?

    There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.

    Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
    Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.

    I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.

    There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
    I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
    I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas.
    Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from?
    All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny.
    How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west?
    If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China.
    I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime.
    Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine.
    So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia.
    The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.


    I disagree.

    At some point, Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine comes to an end. Them buying ammunition from the North Koreans and raiding the asylums for soliders suggests that that might be nearer than we imagine.

    What happens then?

    Well, I would suggest that Putin is unlikely to survive defeat in Ukraine.

    But changing the leader doesn't change the situation on the ground. They can be as nationalist as they like, but reality has to intervene.

    If Putin falls, the next leader has to find some kind of peace with the West, because Russia depends on Western technology to extract the oil and gas that they sell to the World.
    I don't see this.
    It seems like Ukraine is basically a mercenary invasion, the soldiers are poor people enticed by high wages. There is no significant conscription or general mobilisation.
    The fact that there are adverts in odd places is not really all that significant in the scheme of things. There are lots of 'anecdotes' and 'reports' but not too much weight should be put on them, in my opinion.
    If the position is really bad, to the point where it is endangering his position, Putin can quit and declare victory at any point, as the situation stands.
    Obviously, he was expecting a 2014 style cakewalk and this has not gone to plan. But Putin has adapted to the situation and is still really holding all the cards here as far as I can see.
    I think that he is calculating that he can sow greater discord and chaos in the west (and across the world) by continuing the war, and this outweighs any domestic difficulties that may occur in consequence.

    As an example of this, Putin has played a blinder with the gas prices thing, Zarah Sultana leading 'enough is enough' and Boris Johnson was telling them that it is all the price we have to pay for 'beating back' Putin,
    Now Liz Truss comes along and says that the solution is in tax cuts for the rich.
    I disagree with every part of your analysis.

    Firstly, whether it is "mercenary" or not, the Russian troops in Ukraine have to be resupplied, with food and weapons and ammunition. If that ceases, their ability to fight disappears.

    Secondly, the Russians are trying to just hold on right now. And it's not going so well. It's entirely possible that thousands - perhaps as many as ten thousand - Russians on the West side of the Dneiper are going to end up captured.

    And on the gas price, yes the Russians have sown discord.

    But they've also accelerated the move of economies away from gas (Germany stopping their planned nuclear shutdowns for example), as well as ensuring that a host of new LNG projects go forward.

    That means that the share of energy provided by natural gas in the future will be lower, and Russia's market share will be smaller. And the longer the Russians take to come back to the table, the worse their situation will be, because those projects will be live.
    I am a bit cautious about going on this line, because soon I fear that I will be accused of being a 'Putin troll', which I am not, I have given a lot of money to support Ukraine in the early part of the invasion.

    Needless to say though, that Ukraine are relying on western weapons to keep the current situation afloat - this also imposes costs on western countries which cannot be perpetuated indefinetly; particularly in addition to the energy bills problem, which will (I assume) take 3-5 years to sort out by way of diversification away from gas.

    There is a reoffensive by the Ukrainians around Kherson for sure, but this is to be expected in some kind of war situation, it seems to me to be a bit optimistic to make the automatic assumption that it will be successful. Even the potential 'loss' of Kherson is not existential for Russia, in the same way that its 'retreat' from Kiev was not existential in the early weeks of the conflict. The capture of 10000 troops would be a bit of a disappointment and an annoyance, but probably short change for Russia.

    I think the problem here that you haven't responded to, is that if it really is looking bad for Russia, why don't they just quit whilst they are ahead? They must actually believe that they are winning in some way.

    Ultimately, I've personally come to the point of view that we should be working to an endgame other than the 'complete defeat of Putin'.


  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    Grob Tutor from ESUAS at Leuchars.
    LOL, even I’ve flown one of those!

    He got an RAF Falcon 900, KRF18, departed Northolt 5 mins ago.
    Made in France.

    That. Is. A. Dis. Grace.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    Grob Tutor from ESUAS at Leuchars.
    LOL, even I’ve flown one of those!

    He got an RAF Falcon 900, KRF18, departed Northolt 5 mins ago.
    BORIS TRACKER ALERT

    https://fr24.com/KRF18/2d5b3abb
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    edited September 2022
    kle4 said:

    People like Boris and his acolytes here and Lord Cruddas types like to talk about being conservatives, and often trumpet their support of our parliamentary system, but its notable they actually dont believe in it at all, shown when they consider it inherently wrong for MPs to remove a party leader and PM.

    It shows support for institutions and tradition and law is skin deep, and they are actually as radical as Corbyn.

    Or indeed the apparent insistence on bringing in opinion polls as a central element, nay excuse, for ignoring parliamentary democracy.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    Grob Tutor from ESUAS at Leuchars.
    LOL, even I’ve flown one of those!

    He got an RAF Falcon 900, KRF18, departed Northolt 5 mins ago.
    Made in France.

    That. Is. A. Dis. Grace.
    Also, it's "RAF" not RAF because they are operated by civvie crews from Centreline.
  • Angela Rayner on R4 Today: jeepers creepers. Mind-bogglingly poor. WTF has happened to the Labour Party? The dearth of talent at the top is excruciatingly painful.

    She was not any better on BBC

    I expect Labour are worried at the prospect of a 2 year energy freeze from Truss
    If I was Labour, the least of my worries would be the Conservative Party. They are going to quite merrily destroy themselves without any assistance.

    Starmer ought to be scouring the party for talent, or anything even remotely resembling talent. Because if he goes into a GE with the current front bench he is exposing himself to ridicule. Rayner is just not up to the job. Not even close.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    - ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”

    There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.

    I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
    She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.
    This is my Law of the Internet. No matter how incontrovertibly, blindingly obvious something is, someone online will argue the opposite.
    LOL. Really?

    Have you considered that something might appear "incontrovertibly, blindingly obvious" to you, but that you might, just possibly, be wrong?
    Perhaps if I were the only one who thought it, but as you're only one who doesn't, perhaps you should ask yourself that question.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022

    Anyway, the first day in office of Lying Liz. Who spent several months of endless hustings saying no to handouts, no to a big bung. Now supposedly to handout a big bung to the energy companies paid for by consumers.

    "The good news is that your energy bill isn't going to go up. The great news is we've found a way to borrow the money from commercial banks - great for fat cat bankers and shareholders - and hand it to energy companies - brilliant for bosses bonuses - and have you lot pay for it over the next decade. Not only that you WILL pay these crazy bills, you're going to pay interest on top. And you're going to get On Your Knees and thank me for doing so".

    The Harold Saxon era will be truly special. Is "Toclafane" her safe word?

    Back to work, shirker ! Don't forget we are "some of the worst idlers in the world".
    Liz will put us right with deregulated labour markets and the loss of holidays and entitlements.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Every western nation has high inflation, indeed Spain and the Netherlands higher than us because of the sanctions imposed after the Ukraine war. Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic.

    "Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic" is a downright lie. I have explained to you before that you are wrong but you persist with this untruth. Check the dates, and check the terms and conditions. You are peddling a falsehood, I know this because every month I transfer £5.5k to a care home in England to cover a relative's care costs. This will continue until the property is sold or the property is handed over to Herefordshire Council.
    It takes someone with real experience of this issue to provide the facts and indeed I can affirm through the experiences of my son in law with his parents

    As is so often the case @HYUFD is parroting a mith
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    HYUFD said:

    Congratulations to Liz Truss.

    She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.

    I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.

    We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.

    On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.

    Given Sturgeon is squealing about independence and indyref2 every 5 minutes and breaking away from the hated UK, let us not forget it takes 2 to tango. She can have respect and friendship with a Scotland in the UK but not with the SNP
    Hate to point out the obvious, but Scotland is in the UK, yet you Tories still refuse to respect her and maintain friendly relations. You are making your own bed, so I hope you enjoy lying in it.
    'Making' is not the verb that comes to mind.

    This is a poster who applauds the use of whatever dodgy opinion poll a Tory supporter can commission to override parliamentary democracy.
  • Mr. Pioneers, grumpy old Doctor was exactly what I wanted, but I only managed 2-3 episodes of Capaldi before the writing put me off watching any more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    Grob Tutor from ESUAS at Leuchars.
    LOL, even I’ve flown one of those!

    He got an RAF Falcon 900, KRF18, departed Northolt 5 mins ago.
    Made in France.

    That. Is. A. Dis. Grace.
    Also, it's "RAF" not RAF because they are operated by civvie crews from Centreline.
    Yes, civvy crew. Who are the usual pax on these, the brass hats?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,907
    edited September 2022
    rcs1000 said:


    A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).

    He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).

    There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.

    He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.

    Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.

    But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.

    Putin's regime won't fall from of a lack of food in Moscow, it will come about because they lack the resources to continue to fight in Ukraine.

    Where do the troops come from? Where do the shells? The tanks? The helicopters? The bullets?
    If you have money, someone will always sell you bullets & shells.

    My own view is close to that of @NickPalmer . The war is heading for a stalemate.

    Tell us how you think the next few months will pan out. And we can compare notes in 6 months time.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.

    Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.

    "Asleep at the wheel on key issues"

    That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).

    Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.

    Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
    Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.

    Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
    Looking back, the turning point in the polls was last summer. I don't think anyone is sure why, but it correlates with when inflation started to overtake pay rises.
    Actually it coincides with Patersongate, wallpapergate and partygate together with sleaze that ended his Premiership and was entirely self inflicted

    It was this that lost my support for Johnson, not brexit, covid or Ukraine which I was content with
    Sorry to say it, but you're wrong.

    Here's the chart.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Peak Boris was about June 2021, the Conservative ratings started drifting down then. Paterson, parties and Pincher gave kicks down later, sure. But they weren't when the problems started.
    It was for me and many others that resulted in today's events
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    Angela Rayner on R4 Today: jeepers creepers. Mind-bogglingly poor. WTF has happened to the Labour Party? The dearth of talent at the top is excruciatingly painful.

    She was not any better on BBC

    I expect Labour are worried at the prospect of a 2 year energy freeze from Truss
    If I was Labour, the least of my worries would be the Conservative Party. They are going to quite merrily destroy themselves without any assistance.

    Starmer ought to be scouring the party for talent, or anything even remotely resembling talent. Because if he goes into a GE with the current front bench he is exposing himself to ridicule. Rayner is just not up to the job. Not even close.
    Rayner is Deputy Labour Leader, not Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Foreign Secretary or Shadow Home Sec.

    Her job is to be Starmer's John Prescott, a bone to Labour's traditional working class voters and the unions
  • Angela Rayner on R4 Today: jeepers creepers. Mind-bogglingly poor. WTF has happened to the Labour Party? The dearth of talent at the top is excruciatingly painful.

    She was not any better on BBC

    I expect Labour are worried at the prospect of a 2 year energy freeze from Truss
    If I was Labour, the least of my worries would be the Conservative Party. They are going to quite merrily destroy themselves without any assistance.

    Starmer ought to be scouring the party for talent, or anything even remotely resembling talent. Because if he goes into a GE with the current front bench he is exposing himself to ridicule. Rayner is just not up to the job. Not even close.
    Isn't his problem that Rayner has her own separate mandate, so there's a limit to how far she can be demoted? He can make her shadow minister for red hair, but she will still be Deputy Leader.

    Rum system, really.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited September 2022


    A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).

    He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).

    There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.

    He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.

    Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.

    But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.

    Moscow has always been insulated from the realities in the rest of the Russian empire, though.
    And it's rarely Muscovites who are doing the fighting and dying in Ukraine.

    It's true, of course, that the oil revenues continue to flow in.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    edited September 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.

    Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…

    Oh, that’s interesting. Military plane for the PM then?

    Grob Tutor from ESUAS at Leuchars.
    LOL, even I’ve flown one of those!

    He got an RAF Falcon 900, KRF18, departed Northolt 5 mins ago.
    Made in France.

    That. Is. A. Dis. Grace.
    https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/raf-welcomes-first-vip-roled-falcon-900lx-as-envoy-iv/148721.article

    Hadn't realised that the Junior Shagmobiles were ordered and bought this spring, ie when Mr J was PM. Rather embarrassing.

    I'm not even clear that HMtQ actually owns the things, from the article.
This discussion has been closed.