Betfair Sportsbook has now paid out (a couple of hours prematurely) on Liz Truss as next Prime Minister. Bet365 is waiting till she's fed Larry the Cat (or I've forgotten where I backed her). All the "next leader" bets paid out yesterday, of course.
I cashed in my winnings on this weeks ago, for two reasons: - slightly nervous about a black swan (which never materialised) - anxious to pile it all on Wet Leg to win the Mercury.
Hats off for the win. I won a bit too. Labour also a big winner. Country and the Cons not so much.
Are Tory supporters worried? Should we assign someone to worry Tory supporters?
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Every western nation has high inflation, indeed Spain and the Netherlands higher than us because of the sanctions imposed after the Ukraine war. Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic.
"Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic" is a downright lie. I have explained to you before that you are wrong but you persist with this untruth. Check the dates, and check the terms and conditions. You are peddling a falsehood, I know this because every month I transfer £5.5k to a care home in England to cover a relative's care costs. This will continue until the property is sold or the property is handed over to Herefordshire Council.
By 2023 when the change comes into law it will be true
October 2023 is a long way away for @Mexicanpete and others including our family, and you simply cannot be allowed to make misleading statements as you are prone to do
It was not misleading, if it was not for Boris those with dementia would see potentially all their assets still gone to pay for residential care costs through to the next election in 2024 and beyond.
Show some gratitude to Boris for that!!
You were grossly misleading. "Nobody pays more than £86k" is what happens now. Right now, in the current financial year which began in April.
You are being appallingly mannered in your attacks on BigG and Mexcanpete, especially as they have to cope with the reality behind your convenient misstatement.
And there's nothing to stop the legislation being cancelled before it is brought into actual effect. So a bit early to be grateful to "Boris" for spending yet more money to keep Tory Party pensioner members in the state to which they have become all too accustomed.
It is actually Tory Party pensioners children who would benefit from the inheritance most, selling off their homes to pay for care costs would not make much difference to them as they could not live in them anyway and would be dead when it is passed on
That 'will' be the case but 'isn't' now. Just accept that you made a mistake and apologise. It will do you credit.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
What utter rubbish. Boris got Brexit done, delivered the vaccines, supported people and businesses through lockdown and sent weapons and supplied to Ukraine before most world leaders and won the biggest Conservative election victory since Thatcher. Good leaving speech from him too.
Just since WW2 Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown and May were all worse PMs than Boris.
Boris had huge charisma and was a great leader. Unfortunately for the Tories their stupid decision to remove him means it is likely all downhill from here for them for a generation, as it was for them when they removed Thatcher in 1990 and as it was for Labour when Blair was pushed to go in 2007
Thought it would be interesting to give my view on the specifics @hyufd commented upon. In fairness to @hyufd in this case all the comments expressed are just opinions (rather than facts) and as such mine are as valid or as worthless.
Boris got Brexit done - If you mean we left yes, but with the worst deal possible. It is a mess. So no. Getting brexit done is not this.
Delivered the vaccines - Yes a good job, as well as some other good jobs eg Nightingale Hospitals. Also some cockups eg track and trace and the inability to resist lying about stuff unnecessarily.
Supported people and businesses - Yes pretty good, but 80% was too generous and a waste of money and some groups were unnecessarily left to fall through the cracks. Understandable initially but inexcusable later eg small limited companies.
Ukraine - Yes excellent, except for slowness and jobs worth stuff with regard to refugees at the start.
Biggest Conservative election win since Thatcher - Yes but circumstances of needing to get Brexit done and Corbyn were the main factors in my opinion.
Good leaving speech - Only heard a bit but it sounded excellent, but lies in it. Why lie. A new nuclear reactor every year for instance.
Worse PMs - I don't know enough about Eden. I don't believe Heath and Callaghan were worse. Brown and May were awful I grant you but what makes a PM worse. Not comparing like with like here. Brown was indecisive, May stubborn and neither could campaign, but Boris was corrupt, lied relentless and came close to breaking the fabric of Government several times. That makes him worse.
Boris has huge charisma - Yes agree.
Now we come to the only bit which I don't think is opinion but the application of logic. Yes it probably is downhill from here but not because they removed Boris an election winner like Thatcher or Blair but because they have come to the end of their time in office. Just because you win well does not mean you will always win well if you stick with the same leader. If Blair and Thatcher had continued they would have eventually lost. It is daft to assume that because Boris won with a big majority he will always win. He clearly wouldn't have done.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
It looks like they’re not allowed to be in the air at the same time. Boris’s plane is about to land in Aberdeen, and Liz’s plane about to take off from Northolt.
From the comments of Tory supporters on the thread, you would think everything in the UK is fine and dandy and that Boris left over personal issues and technicalities. That feels a smidgen complacent.
By 2030 I predict Boris will be seen to have been the best PM of this decade
If he gets in after Truss or Truss wins the next election it's a shoot out between Truss and Johnson, so you could be right.
He is certainly the best PM this decade so far, at least until lunchtime today.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
What utter rubbish. Boris got Brexit done, delivered the vaccines, supported people and businesses through lockdown and sent weapons and supplied to Ukraine before most world leaders and won the biggest Conservative election victory since Thatcher. Good leaving speech from him too.
Just since WW2 Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown and May were all worse PMs than Boris.
Boris had huge charisma and was a great leader. Unfortunately for the Tories their stupid decision to remove him means it is likely all downhill from here for them for a generation, as it was for them when they removed Thatcher in 1990 and as it was for Labour when Blair was pushed to go in 2007
Thought it would be interesting to give my view on the specifics @hyufd commented upon. In fairness to @hyufd in this case all the comments expressed are just opinions (rather than facts) and as such mine are as valid or as worthless.
Boris got Brexit done - If you mean we left yes, but with the worst deal possible. It is a mess. So no. Getting brexit done is not this.
Delivered the vaccines - Yes a good job, as well as some other good jobs eg Nightingale Hospitals. Also some cockups eg track and trace and the inability to resist lying about stuff unnecessarily.
Supported people and businesses - Yes pretty good, but 80% was too generous and a waste of money and some groups were unnecessarily left to fall through the cracks. Understandable initially but inexcusable later eg small limited companies.
Ukraine - Yes excellent, except for slowness and jobs worth stuff with regard to refugees at the start.
Biggest Conservative election win since Thatcher - Yes but circumstances of needing to get Brexit done and Corbyn were the main factors in my opinion.
Good leaving speech - Only heard a bit but it sounded excellent, but lies in it. Why lie. A new nuclear reactor every year for instance.
Worse PMs - I don't know enough about Eden. I don't believe Heath and Callaghan were worse. Brown and May were awful I grant you but what makes a PM worse. Not comparing like with like here. Brown was indecisive, May stubborn and neither could campaign, but Boris was corrupt, lied relentless and came close to breaking the fabric of Government several times. That makes him worse.
Boris has huge charisma - Yes agree.
Now we come to the only bit which I don't think is opinion but the application of logic. Yes it probably is downhill from here but not because they removed Boris an election winner like Thatcher or Blair but because they have come to the end of their time in office. Just because you win well does not mean you will always win well if you stick with the same leader. If Blair and Thatcher had continued they would have eventually lost. It is daft to assume that because Boris won with a big majority he will always win. He clearly wouldn't have done.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
He can't be trusted not to throw her out of the aircraft?
Some bizarre analysis on here this morning. My favourite being that Germany wouldn’t be energy independent on Russia were it not for Brexit.
I also wonder about the quality of media people are consuming based on what they say about the war. It’s clear what’s happening in the next 3-6 months. The grinding destruction of Russian forces west of the Dnipro over autumn. Russia will then spend the winter desperately trying to reconstitute battered BTGs. Ukraine meanwhile will be rotating troops out with the newly trained forces. While picking up the intensity of shaping operations on Crimea for a spring offensive, which will be very vulnerable indeed after Kherson falls. The intensity of the Russian artillery war will all the while be dropping, as they deplete stockpiles of shells and barrels - see desperate eBay shopping from North Korea.
Russian leaders are historically judged by elites based upon their territorial gains or losses. And Crimea has special symbolic significance. Its property sector has also been used as a store of wealth for the chattering Muscovites since 2014. Its loss to the Russian empire will on my view be fatal to Putin, most likely literally not just figuratively.
Putin thinks he has two strong aces. But he doesn’t. They’re just cards that will bring short term human misery but undermine Russia’s strength not just in terms of this war but its long term future.
The first is the gas card. The market had already priced this in it can only be played once. As others have described, things will get easier over time. Germany has 4 lng vessels coming on stream this winter. Over a three year timescale the market with some govt backing substantially solves the problem.
The second is using Zap as a giant dirty bomb. But it’s hard to see how this changes the context of the war either on the ground, or strategically. Europe and Ukraine would have even greater resolve if he played that card, and he’d also likely force China’s hand in picking sides too.
What then? The leading contender is likely the fragmentation of the Russian federation, which will be pretty wild.
A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).
He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).
There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.
He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.
Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.
But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.
Putin's regime won't fall from of a lack of food in Moscow, it will come about because they lack the resources to continue to fight in Ukraine.
Where do the troops come from? Where do the shells? The tanks? The helicopters? The bullets?
One can perhaps exaggerate what small gestures say about a person. Still, Truss's failure to turn to Sunak and shake his hand before going up to give her speech yesterday was small-minded (if deliberate) and rude (if not).
How hard is it to get this sort of stuff right, especially for someone who has been in politics as long as she has?
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
Doesn't make sense. Ms T isn't the PM till he isn't, if you see what I mean. Until then, she's just any old MP.
It does to the security services apparently
And to be honest she is not any mp, she is de facto PM
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Understand that reorganisation plan looked at earlier in the year - originating in Cabinet Office - has been implemented in full overnight. Policy Unit, Legislative Affairs, Delivery Unit and Data Science will be abolished in No10 and merged into EDS. Civil servants and SpAds out
I have not really been following this story. What does this man in practice and what does it say about the way Truss will run her Premiership? It seems to me that it could be a big thing but I know almost nothing about it.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Every western nation has high inflation, indeed Spain and the Netherlands higher than us because of the sanctions imposed after the Ukraine war. Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic.
"Boris ensured nobody pays more than £86k for social care costs residential or domestic" is a downright lie. I have explained to you before that you are wrong but you persist with this untruth. Check the dates, and check the terms and conditions. You are peddling a falsehood, I know this because every month I transfer £5.5k to a care home in England to cover a relative's care costs. This will continue until the property is sold or the property is handed over to Herefordshire Council.
By 2023 when the change comes into law it will be true
October 2023 is a long way away for @Mexicanpete and others including our family, and you simply cannot be allowed to make misleading statements as you are prone to do
It was not misleading, if it was not for Boris those with dementia would see potentially all their assets still gone to pay for residential care costs through to the next election in 2024 and beyond.
Show some gratitude to Boris for that!!
You were grossly misleading. "Nobody pays more than £86k" is what happens now. Right now, in the current financial year which began in April.
You are being appallingly mannered in your attacks on BigG and Mexcanpete, especially as they have to cope with the reality behind your convenient misstatement.
And there's nothing to stop the legislation being cancelled before it is brought into actual effect. So a bit early to be grateful to "Boris" for spending yet more money to keep Tory Party pensioner members in the state to which they have become all too accustomed.
It is actually Tory Party pensioners children who would benefit from the inheritance most, selling off their homes to pay for care costs would not make much difference to them as they could not live in them anyway and would be dead when it is passed on
So? Parents worry about their children and love to leave them lots of money (within reason). Plus the pensioners will feel they can spend a little more on themselves while they are still alive.
Have you never met a real pensioner thinking along those lines?
I agree, hence we should all thank Boris for this wonderful cap on care costs he legislated for. One of his greatest legacies
You think it will survive? It hasn't happened yet. Legacies have a habit of not happening if you anticipate them too much.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
Doesn't make sense. Ms T isn't the PM till he isn't, if you see what I mean. Until then, she's just any old MP.
Technically she's the Foreign Secretary.
But yes, it is ridiculous.
Apart from anything else, what's the worst that could happen? An engine failure leading to PM Sunak?
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
Doesn't make sense. Ms T isn't the PM till he isn't, if you see what I mean. Until then, she's just any old MP.
It does to the security services apparently
And to be honest she is not any mp, she is de facto PM
It's probably because she's still Foreign Secretary?
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Exactly what I thought. Just another example of Johnson wasting taxpayers money to protect his fragile ego.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas. Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from? All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny. How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west? If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China. I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime. Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine. So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia. The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
I disagree.
At some point, Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine comes to an end. Them buying ammunition from the North Koreans and raiding the asylums for soliders suggests that that might be nearer than we imagine.
What happens then?
Well, I would suggest that Putin is unlikely to survive defeat in Ukraine.
But changing the leader doesn't change the situation on the ground. They can be as nationalist as they like, but reality has to intervene.
If Putin falls, the next leader has to find some kind of peace with the West, because Russia depends on Western technology to extract the oil and gas that they sell to the World.
I don't see this. It seems like Ukraine is basically a mercenary invasion, the soldiers are poor people enticed by high wages. There is no significant conscription or general mobilisation. The fact that there are adverts in odd places is not really all that significant in the scheme of things. There are lots of 'anecdotes' and 'reports' but not too much weight should be put on them, in my opinion. If the position is really bad, to the point where it is endangering his position, Putin can quit and declare victory at any point, as the situation stands. Obviously, he was expecting a 2014 style cakewalk and this has not gone to plan. But Putin has adapted to the situation and is still really holding all the cards here as far as I can see. I think that he is calculating that he can sow greater discord and chaos in the west (and across the world) by continuing the war, and this outweighs any domestic difficulties that may occur in consequence.
As an example of this, Putin has played a blinder with the gas prices thing, Zarah Sultana leading 'enough is enough' and Boris Johnson was telling them that it is all the price we have to pay for 'beating back' Putin, Now Liz Truss comes along and says that the solution is in tax cuts for the rich.
I disagree with every part of your analysis.
Firstly, whether it is "mercenary" or not, the Russian troops in Ukraine have to be resupplied, with food and weapons and ammunition. If that ceases, their ability to fight disappears.
Secondly, the Russians are trying to just hold on right now. And it's not going so well. It's entirely possible that thousands - perhaps as many as ten thousand - Russians on the West side of the Dneiper are going to end up captured.
And on the gas price, yes the Russians have sown discord.
But they've also accelerated the move of economies away from gas (Germany stopping their planned nuclear shutdowns for example), as well as ensuring that a host of new LNG projects go forward.
That means that the share of energy provided by natural gas in the future will be lower, and Russia's market share will be smaller. And the longer the Russians take to come back to the table, the worse their situation will be, because those projects will be live.
I am a bit cautious about going on this line, because soon I fear that I will be accused of being a 'Putin troll', which I am not, I have given a lot of money to support Ukraine in the early part of the invasion.
Needless to say though, that Ukraine are relying on western weapons to keep the current situation afloat - this also imposes costs on western countries which cannot be perpetuated indefinetly; particularly in addition to the energy bills problem, which will (I assume) take 3-5 years to sort out by way of diversification away from gas.
There is a reoffensive by the Ukrainians around Kherson for sure, but this is to be expected in some kind of war situation, it seems to me to be a bit optimistic to make the automatic assumption that it will be successful. Even the potential 'loss' of Kherson is not existential for Russia, in the same way that its 'retreat' from Kiev was not existential in the early weeks of the conflict. The capture of 10000 troops would be a bit of a disappointment and an annoyance, but probably short change for Russia.
I think the problem here that you haven't responded to, is that if it really is looking bad for Russia, why don't they just quit whilst they are ahead? They must actually believe that they are winning in some way.
Ultimately, I've personally come to the point of view that we should be working to an endgame other than the 'complete defeat of Putin'.
How can they 'quit'?
They are in a war now, and quitting means removing troops from Ukraine. Otherwise they are in the same position the Russians were in Afghanistan, or the Americans were in Iraq. Except it'll be worse, because Ukraine is not fundamentally defeated.
Remember invasion is usually the easy part: it's holding what you've grabbed that is difficult.
'quit while they are ahead'. Not 'quit Ukraine', airlift of Kabul style. They quit by just working with France/Germany to get some kind of peace, we know that Macron will jump at the chance. There are many exit options for Putin that never even remotely existed in Afghanistan or Iraq.
I agree with your analysis about the general principle of it being difficult to hold land you have invaded. However, you are applying this to Ukraine against the evidence of Crimea post 2014. Russia 'held' Crimea for 8 years and it has not gone badly because the reality is that, to some degree, it has the consent of those it governs. This is also likely to be true of the regimes it created in the east of Ukraine. The 'peace' is likely to be based on some kind of formalisation of this position, which Putin can sell as a 'win' .
The French talk peace, but they've been shipping plenty of arms to Ukraine. They're third by value after the US and the UK.
They also don't need the gas. Indeed, France is probably benefitting right now from being the European country with the cheapest energy: hence why France's PMIs are comfortably showing economic expansion.
Well, the position of recent candidates in the recent presidential election is good evidence of the French strategic view of Russia; I think there are strategic issues that go beyond short term considerations relating to gas prices. But, we will see.
Before you leave for London Ms Truss, would you be kind and accompany me into the garden for a few moments?
…
Look at those majestic mountains Ms Truss. Take in the mighty Scots pines and the gorgeous lochan there. This is my realm, my land, and these are my people. You are my prime minister and Ms Sturgeon is my first minister. I ask her to form my government in Edinburgh as I ask you to form my government in London. I expect and request that my ministers respect and interact with each other. You shall not ignore each other.
Respect my realm Ms Truss. Our allotted time is brief, and we must leave intact our inheritance to the next generations.
Goodbye Ms Truss.
Except that doesn’t reflect the constitutional arrangements.
Yes it does.
After a Scottish Parliamentary election, a First Minister is formally nominated by the Scottish Parliament and appointed by Her Majesty the Queen.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
Doesn't make sense. Ms T isn't the PM till he isn't, if you see what I mean. Until then, she's just any old MP.
Technically she's the Foreign Secretary.
But yes, it is ridiculous.
Apart from anything else, what's the worst that could happen? An engine failure leading to PM Sunak?
Since when did security rules have to make any sense?
I'm no fan of Mary Beard, but this is quite nicely done.
https://mobile.twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/1567039650027413506 If you are curious about Boris Johnson's reference to Cincinnatus in his goodbye speech - he was a 5th century BC Roman politician who saved the state from an invasion, then - job done - returned to his farm ('to his plough'). He was also an enemy of the people.
I like the bit where Cincinnatus returns as dictator.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
The UK itself had very little structural dependence on hydrocarbons from Russia. The problem is the dependency of others which is now meaning increased competition for a reduced supply.
If Europe had focused on energy security rather than Brexit for the past six years we all would have been in a better place. No-one was talking about Russia until it was too late. We were all looking inward and left the back door open.
LOL! So Germany and others making themselves reliant on Russian energy is the fault of Brexit? Really?
Good morning PB.
Yes. “The ‘Ukraine war is because of Brexit” is a remark so weirdly, phenomenally stupid it must be the result of a cognitive problem, not just dimness
BDS. Stockholm Syndrome. Still with us. Hopefully in its final stage now
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
It might be a question of succession.
If BoZo dies, Truss is PM.
If both of them die, who's next? Is it Raab, who was about to be sacked?
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).
He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).
There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.
He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.
Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.
But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.
Putin's regime won't fall from of a lack of food in Moscow, it will come about because they lack the resources to continue to fight in Ukraine.
Where do the troops come from? Where do the shells? The tanks? The helicopters? The bullets?
China?
Reluctantly. Why else has Putin been getting supplies form North Korea of all places. I guess China is quite OK with a partially gelded Russian bear.
There was discussion about China's projected population decline and immigration on a previous thread yesterday. Very interesting thread here from John Burns-Murdoch.
TLDR: loads of countries can expect sharp demographic decline in the coming decades. The ones that won't are those with significant net immigration.
Shrinking countries with ethnically homogenous populations like China, Japan, South Korea and the whole of Eastern Europe will have a choice to make. It's China's population trajectory and the continuing US (relative) openness to immigration that make one wonder whether American hegemony will ever actually be threatened.
When Nigeria hits a billion people and becomes an economic powerhouse the world will look very different. All that Sub-Saharan migration people loudly worry about: we may instead see the Sahel emptying out in the direction of Lagos.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Exactly what I thought. Just another example of Johnson wasting taxpayers money to protect his fragile ego.
To be fair, this decision would not be taken by Johnson but the security services
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
It might be a question of succession.
If [Boris] dies, Truss is PM.
If both of them die, who's next? Is it Raab, who was about to be sacked?
Is it Patel, who already resigned?
It's whoever the cabinet nominates as a caretaker until there can be another Tory leadership election.
Some bizarre analysis on here this morning. My favourite being that Germany wouldn’t be energy independent on Russia were it not for Brexit.
I also wonder about the quality of media people are consuming based on what they say about the war. It’s clear what’s happening in the next 3-6 months. The grinding destruction of Russian forces west of the Dnipro over autumn. Russia will then spend the winter desperately trying to reconstitute battered BTGs. Ukraine meanwhile will be rotating troops out with the newly trained forces. While picking up the intensity of shaping operations on Crimea for a spring offensive, which will be very vulnerable indeed after Kherson falls. The intensity of the Russian artillery war will all the while be dropping, as they deplete stockpiles of shells and barrels - see desperate eBay shopping from North Korea.
Russian leaders are historically judged by elites based upon their territorial gains or losses. And Crimea has special symbolic significance. Its property sector has also been used as a store of wealth for the chattering Muscovites since 2014. Its loss to the Russian empire will on my view be fatal to Putin, most likely literally not just figuratively.
Putin thinks he has two strong aces. But he doesn’t. They’re just cards that will bring short term human misery but undermine Russia’s strength not just in terms of this war but its long term future.
The first is the gas card. The market had already priced this in it can only be played once. As others have described, things will get easier over time. Germany has 4 lng vessels coming on stream this winter. Over a three year timescale the market with some govt backing substantially solves the problem.
The second is using Zap as a giant dirty bomb. But it’s hard to see how this changes the context of the war either on the ground, or strategically. Europe and Ukraine would have even greater resolve if he played that card, and he’d also likely force China’s hand in picking sides too.
What then? The leading contender is likely the fragmentation of the Russian federation, which will be pretty wild.
Russia is resilient. And most of its citizens are vividly patriotic, even in the outlying regions. I don’t believe it will break up in any significant way. An awful lot of Russians would fight that outcome, physically, for a start
Can someone explain to me the extravagance of Johnson and Truss flying in separate jets at our expense and no doubt separate cars to Balmoral; Not a good message on saving money. They could have gone together and one waited whilst the other left the Queens presence and then come back together.
She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.
I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.
We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.
On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.
Given Sturgeon is squealing about independence and indyref2 every 5 minutes and breaking away from the hated UK, let us not forget it takes 2 to tango. She can have respect and friendship with a Scotland in the UK but not with the SNP
Hate to point out the obvious, but Scotland is in the UK, yet you Tories still refuse to respect her and maintain friendly relations. You are making your own bed, so I hope you enjoy lying in it.
Can I just correct you
@HYUFD does not represent this conservative who wants friendly relationships with Scotland
Glad to hear it. Sane Tories are thin on the ground these days.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Please debate!
Behave!
Old Soviet joke:
Teacher in Hungary: 'Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'A tragedy is when my hamster dies.'
Teacher (enraged) 'Ridiculous! Your hamster dying might be a problem, but it's hardly a tragedy. Imagine if our great leader Comrade Kadar died, that would be a tragedy. Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'My hamster dying is a problem, but not a tragedy. Comrade Kadar dying would be a tragedy but not a problem.'
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Exactly what I thought. Just another example of Johnson wasting taxpayers money to protect his fragile ego.
To be fair, this decision would not be taken by Johnson but the security services
No-one would be complaining if the planes were for HM and her entourage.
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
It might be a question of succession.
If BoZo dies, Truss is PM.
If both of them die, who's next? Is it Raab, who was about to be sacked?
Is it Patel, who already resigned?
It's Raab, who would be caretaker pending a new leadership election. Exactly the same as at any other time. The fact that there is currently a PM designate and a soon to be ex PM is irrelevant as there is only one PM and it is only the PM designate who actually matters. There is an argument for Raab not being on the same plane but no logical reason why Truss and Johnson shouldn't share.
I'm no fan of Mary Beard, but this is quite nicely done.
https://mobile.twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/1567039650027413506 If you are curious about Boris Johnson's reference to Cincinnatus in his goodbye speech - he was a 5th century BC Roman politician who saved the state from an invasion, then - job done - returned to his farm ('to his plough'). He was also an enemy of the people.
I like the bit where Cincinnatus returns as dictator.
Did he return as one? I thought he was dictator the once.
Wiki:
"Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus (c. 519 – c. 430 BC) was a Roman patrician, statesman, and military leader of the early Roman Republic who became a legendary figure of Roman virtue—particularly civic virtue—by the time of the late Republic.
[...] He came from his plough to assume complete control over the state but, upon achieving a swift victory in only 16 days,[1] relinquished his power and its perquisites and returned to his farm. His success and immediate resignation of his near-absolute authority with the end of this crisis (traditionally dated to 458 BC) has often been cited as an example of outstanding leadership, service to the greater good, civic virtue, humility, and modesty. "
Edit: Memory wrong, but history may be too:
"Cincinnatus came out of retirement for a second term as dictator in 439 BC to deal with the feared plot of the wealthy plebeian Spurius Maelius to buy the loyalty of the poor and establish himself as king over Rome. [... ]With the crisis resolved, Cincinnatus again resigned his commission, having served 21 days [...] Various aspects of the story are connected with spurious etiological legends and it may have no more connection to the dictator of 458 BC than the fact that the Cincinnatus of 439 BC was a member of the same clan.[24]"
A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).
He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).
There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.
He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.
Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.
But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.
Putin's regime won't fall from of a lack of food in Moscow, it will come about because they lack the resources to continue to fight in Ukraine.
Where do the troops come from? Where do the shells? The tanks? The helicopters? The bullets?
China?
Reluctantly. Why else has Putin been getting supplies form North Korea of all places. I guess China is quite OK with a partially gelded Russian bear.
Traditionally of course Russia and China are more rivals than they are allies.
If Russia self-emasculates itself in Ukraine then it reinforces China's position as the sole Eastern power. Russia has tried to keep its own 'sphere of influence' but a weakened Russia could end up not just losing its own sphere but in China's sphere.
She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.
I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.
We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.
On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.
Given Sturgeon is squealing about independence and indyref2 every 5 minutes and breaking away from the hated UK, let us not forget it takes 2 to tango. She can have respect and friendship with a Scotland in the UK but not with the SNP
Hate to point out the obvious, but Scotland is in the UK, yet you Tories still refuse to respect her and maintain friendly relations. You are making your own bed, so I hope you enjoy lying in it.
Can I just correct you
@HYUFD does not represent this conservative who wants friendly relationships with Scotland
@StuartDickson has won this argument. He's got you all talking about "friendly relationships" like Scotland is Argentina or something.
I have never wanted anything other than a friendly relationship with Scotland not least because half of my family are Scots
Within the UK
Yes of course but it is upto the Scots to decide, not you
Thankfully not all Scots are frothing trolling Anglophobes like @StuartDickson; a man that loves his country so much that he doesn't live there.
Can someone explain to me the extravagance of Johnson and Truss flying in separate jets at our expense and no doubt separate cars to Balmoral; Not a good message on saving money. They could have gone together and one waited whilst the other left the Queens presence and then come back together.
Already explained at length. The TLDR version is: Security.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
Technically I give her 14 months, she'll be ousted by the 2023 Tory conference.
I posted about 6 - 7 weeks ago about my 'health' situation. I have managed to keep the half a stone off that I lost initially. Unfortunately though I started drinking again and went on several holidays, so there has been little real progress in losing weight or getting more healthy. I have gone to the gym/swam a couple of times a week, that has been my exercise. Now I am back again to 2 weeks without drinking, and have gone back to my bike as a method of getting around. Going to be quite challenging as I have a series of weekends away coming up to visit friends/family. I think the only way forward is through stopping drinking, keeping to a calorie/nutrition controlled diet, building up strong habits, and routine.
She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.
I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.
We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.
On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.
Given Sturgeon is squealing about independence and indyref2 every 5 minutes and breaking away from the hated UK, let us not forget it takes 2 to tango. She can have respect and friendship with a Scotland in the UK but not with the SNP
Hate to point out the obvious, but Scotland is in the UK, yet you Tories still refuse to respect her and maintain friendly relations. You are making your own bed, so I hope you enjoy lying in it.
Can I just correct you
@HYUFD does not represent this conservative who wants friendly relationships with Scotland
@StuartDickson has won this argument. He's got you all talking about "friendly relationships" like Scotland is Argentina or something.
I have never wanted anything other than a friendly relationship with Scotland not least because half of my family are Scots
Within the UK
Yes of course but it is upto the Scots to decide, not you
Thankfully not all Scots are frothing trolling Anglophobes like @StuartDickson; a man that loves his country so much that he doesn't live there.
I have every confidence the Scots would vote for the Union in indyref2
A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).
He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).
There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.
He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.
Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.
But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.
Putin's regime won't fall from of a lack of food in Moscow, it will come about because they lack the resources to continue to fight in Ukraine.
Where do the troops come from? Where do the shells? The tanks? The helicopters? The bullets?
China?
I’m not sure it suits China for this to drag on too long. Whilst the current situation puts them in a strong geo-political situation of being a potential power broker and a weak Russia could play to their long term benefit they have big economic problems from covid shut downs and property crash.
China needs the west - think of the size of the European and US economies - to be buying things. The longer there is economic damage that cools buying then it’s harder for China to fix its own economy.
So I’m not sure China wants to give large quantities of kit over a long time.
Maybe they will supply “untested” kit to see how it works in real war - they will have seen that the war has been a brilliant (if tragic) testing ground for western kit and best to try it out before thinking of using it in Taiwan but I honestly don’t think the instability suits them much longer.
They will very much enjoy being in a position to say “Stop” and be the big power.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Exactly what I thought. Just another example of Johnson wasting taxpayers money to protect his fragile ego.
To be fair, this decision would not be taken by Johnson but the security services
But Mr J could overrride them. He's still PM (I think!).
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
Technically I give her 14 months, she'll be ousted by the 2023 Tory conference.
With all due respect I think your judgement has been clouded by Brexit.
On the day that Boris became leader you were adamant that his election was such a disaster it would mean Corbyn winning the next election and becoming PM. Fast forward to the election and Boris won an 80 seat majority and Corbyn the worst result in nearly a century.
I would take your predictions of Truss's imminent fall with a large pinch of salt.
Can someone explain to me the extravagance of Johnson and Truss flying in separate jets at our expense and no doubt separate cars to Balmoral; Not a good message on saving money. They could have gone together and one waited whilst the other left the Queens presence and then come back together.
These decisions are made by our security services and simply are not in Johnson or Truss remit
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Please debate!
Behave!
Old Soviet joke:
Teacher in Hungary: 'Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'A tragedy is when my hamster dies.'
Teacher (enraged) 'Ridiculous! Your hamster dying might be a problem, but it's hardly a tragedy. Imagine if our great leader Comrade Kadar died, that would be a tragedy. Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'My hamster dying is a problem, but not a tragedy. Comrade Kadar dying would be a tragedy but not a problem.'
She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.
I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.
We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.
On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.
Given Sturgeon is squealing about independence and indyref2 every 5 minutes and breaking away from the hated UK, let us not forget it takes 2 to tango. She can have respect and friendship with a Scotland in the UK but not with the SNP
Hate to point out the obvious, but Scotland is in the UK, yet you Tories still refuse to respect her and maintain friendly relations. You are making your own bed, so I hope you enjoy lying in it.
Can I just correct you
@HYUFD does not represent this conservative who wants friendly relationships with Scotland
Glad to hear it. Sane Tories are thin on the ground these days.
Whereas sane non-Anglophobic Nats are so thin on the ground as to be about as non-existent as a member of the ERG whose favourite tune is Beethoven's "Ode to Joy".
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Please debate!
Behave!
Old Soviet joke:
Teacher in Hungary: 'Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'A tragedy is when my hamster dies.'
Teacher (enraged) 'Ridiculous! Your hamster dying might be a problem, but it's hardly a tragedy. Imagine if our great leader Comrade Kadar died, that would be a tragedy. Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'My hamster dying is a problem, but not a tragedy. Comrade Kadar dying would be a tragedy but not a problem.'
Lost a bit in translation?
The implication is nobody would notice or care if Comrade Kadar died.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Exactly what I thought. Just another example of Johnson wasting taxpayers money to protect his fragile ego.
To be fair, this decision would not be taken by Johnson but the security services
But Mr J could overrride them. He's still PM (I think!).
If the security protocol is that the PM and Foreign Secretary don't fly together (I don't know if that is the case or not) then why would or should the PM override security protocols at this time? Especially at a time that there's a war on.
If he did people would be attacking his disregard for 'the rules'.
What is the positive case for Truss establishing a poll lead, want to get the full picture when I place my bet
I think we political obsessives often forget that the public don't obsess like we do. For many Truss will be fresh, and they will not attach the baggage that we do. If she gets the next week right - decent speech from No 10 today, doesn't get destroyed by Starmer tomorrow (unlikely, as he is very good at missing open goals), and produces a package on the energy crisis that goes down well, then she has a chance of a poll lead. How likely is all that? Not sure. You also need to take into account the fatigue that the country has for the Tories (I'd argue its 7 years of a Tory government, but the media like to say 12, as if the coalition wasn't actually a coalition). I think many many people are sick of the Tories and want a change. Me included TBH. I have no great enthusiasm for Labour or the Lib Dems, but its time it wasn't Tories in charge.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Exactly what I thought. Just another example of Johnson wasting taxpayers money to protect his fragile ego.
To be fair, this decision would not be taken by Johnson but the security services
But Mr J could overrride them. He's still PM (I think!).
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Please debate!
Behave!
Old Soviet joke:
Teacher in Hungary: 'Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'A tragedy is when my hamster dies.'
Teacher (enraged) 'Ridiculous! Your hamster dying might be a problem, but it's hardly a tragedy. Imagine if our great leader Comrade Kadar died, that would be a tragedy. Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'My hamster dying is a problem, but not a tragedy. Comrade Kadar dying would be a tragedy but not a problem.'
Lost a bit in translation?
I first heard it with Tony Blair as the protagonist - a web search finds this version:
Tony Blair was visiting a primary school and he visited one of the classes. They were in the middle of a discussion related to words and their meanings.
The teacher asked the Prime Minister if he would like to lead the discussion on the word "tragedy". So the illustrious leader asked the class for an example of a "tragedy".
One little boy stood up and offered: "If my best friend, who lives on a farm, is playing in the field & a tractor runs over him and kills him, that would be a 'tragedy'". "No," said Blair, "that would be an accident."
A little girl raised her hand: "If a school bus carrying fifty children drove over a cliff, killing everyone inside, that would be a tragedy." "I'm afraid not," explained the Prime Minister, "that's what we would call a great loss."
The room went silent. No other children volunteered. Tony searched the room.
"Isn't there someone here who can give me an example of tragedy?"
Finally, at the back of the room, a small boy raised his hand...In a quiet voice he said: "If the Air plane carrying you and Mrs Blair was struck by a "friendly fire" missile & blown to smithereens, that would be a tragedy."
"Fantastic!" exclaimed Tony Blair. "That's right. And can you tell me why that would be tragedy?"
"Well," says the boy "it has to be a tragedy, because it certainly wouldn't be a great loss and it probably wouldn't be a f*cking accident either!"
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
Doesn't make sense. Ms T isn't the PM till he isn't, if you see what I mean. Until then, she's just any old MP.
Technically she's the Foreign Secretary.
But yes, it is ridiculous.
Apart from anything else, what's the worst that could happen? An engine failure leading to PM Sunak?
Can someone explain to me the extravagance of Johnson and Truss flying in separate jets at our expense and no doubt separate cars to Balmoral; Not a good message on saving money. They could have gone together and one waited whilst the other left the Queens presence and then come back together.
I expect it was a decision taken by security, not the PM. Same as the US president and VP not flying on the same plane.
I do think the other options were better though - Johnson gets to fly up, but make his own way home and the reverse for Truss...
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Exactly what I thought. Just another example of Johnson wasting taxpayers money to protect his fragile ego.
To be fair, this decision would not be taken by Johnson but the security services
We will have no way of knowing. He would make his feelings plain that was the reason and they are hardly likely to fail to acquiesce.
A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).
He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).
There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.
He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.
Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.
But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.
Putin's regime won't fall from of a lack of food in Moscow, it will come about because they lack the resources to continue to fight in Ukraine.
Where do the troops come from? Where do the shells? The tanks? The helicopters? The bullets?
China?
I’m not sure it suits China for this to drag on too long. Whilst the current situation puts them in a strong geo-political situation of being a potential power broker and a weak Russia could play to their long term benefit they have big economic problems from covid shut downs and property crash.
China needs the west - think of the size of the European and US economies - to be buying things. The longer there is economic damage that cools buying then it’s harder for China to fix its own economy.
So I’m not sure China wants to give large quantities of kit over a long time.
Maybe they will supply “untested” kit to see how it works in real war - they will have seen that the war has been a brilliant (if tragic) testing ground for western kit and best to try it out before thinking of using it in Taiwan but I honestly don’t think the instability suits them much longer.
They will very much enjoy being in a position to say “Stop” and be the big power.
China is supposedly assisting Russia in several stealthy ways. Enabling oil sales and so on
This might account for the benign situation in Moscow reported by @YBarddCwsc upthread, and the relative failure of western sanctions in terms of crippling Putin
So China can probably call the whole thing off by withdrawing support. eg I’m really not sure Russian allies in Central Asia would stand by Putin if Beijing instructed them otherwise. China can destroy everyone via trade
Interesting that Xi is heading for Kazakhstan this week
Can someone explain to me the extravagance of Johnson and Truss flying in separate jets at our expense and no doubt separate cars to Balmoral; Not a good message on saving money. They could have gone together and one waited whilst the other left the Queens presence and then come back together.
I expect it was a decision taken by security, not the PM. Same as the US president and VP not flying on the same plane.
I do think the other options were better though - Johnson gets to fly up, but make his own way home and the reverse for Truss...
It's not clear to me why Johnson had to be there in Person. A video conference with the Queen would be OK. Any paperwork could be carried on the plane carrying Truss. I can understand why the new Primeminister should have to meet the Monarch in persn, but not the outgoing one.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Please debate!
Behave!
Old Soviet joke:
Teacher in Hungary: 'Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'A tragedy is when my hamster dies.'
Teacher (enraged) 'Ridiculous! Your hamster dying might be a problem, but it's hardly a tragedy. Imagine if our great leader Comrade Kadar died, that would be a tragedy. Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'My hamster dying is a problem, but not a tragedy. Comrade Kadar dying would be a tragedy but not a problem.'
Lost a bit in translation?
I first heard it with Tony Blair as the protagonist - a web search finds this version:
Tony Blair was visiting a primary school and he visited one of the classes. They were in the middle of a discussion related to words and their meanings.
The teacher asked the Prime Minister if he would like to lead the discussion on the word "tragedy". So the illustrious leader asked the class for an example of a "tragedy".
One little boy stood up and offered: "If my best friend, who lives on a farm, is playing in the field & a tractor runs over him and kills him, that would be a 'tragedy'". "No," said Blair, "that would be an accident."
A little girl raised her hand: "If a school bus carrying fifty children drove over a cliff, killing everyone inside, that would be a tragedy." "I'm afraid not," explained the Prime Minister, "that's what we would call a great loss."
The room went silent. No other children volunteered. Tony searched the room.
"Isn't there someone here who can give me an example of tragedy?"
Finally, at the back of the room, a small boy raised his hand...In a quiet voice he said: "If the Air plane carrying you and Mrs Blair was struck by a "friendly fire" missile & blown to smithereens, that would be a tragedy."
"Fantastic!" exclaimed Tony Blair. "That's right. And can you tell me why that would be tragedy?"
"Well," says the boy "it has to be a tragedy, because it certainly wouldn't be a great loss and it probably wouldn't be a f*cking accident either!"
I think the police would certainly be asking if a Dr J. Brown had been seen near the missile launch site!
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
A friend of mine (Anglo-Russian, anti-war) returned from Moscow last night (via a flight from Turkey).
He reports that there was little visible war propaganda in Moscow, no signs of shortages of food. The shops were well-stocked (in fact, he said, better than before the war).
There were not many visible signs of dissent, people were enjoying themselves in central Moscow in bars, etc.
He concludes Moscow has successful managed to ignore the war.
Of course, he was only in parts of Moscow.
But, it seems clear that Russia is not about to collapse, sanctions have seemingly not had much visible effect on the lives of ordinary people at least in Moscow and there is no sign of the end of Putin's regime.
Putin's regime won't fall from of a lack of food in Moscow, it will come about because they lack the resources to continue to fight in Ukraine.
Where do the troops come from? Where do the shells? The tanks? The helicopters? The bullets?
China?
I’m not sure it suits China for this to drag on too long. Whilst the current situation puts them in a strong geo-political situation of being a potential power broker and a weak Russia could play to their long term benefit they have big economic problems from covid shut downs and property crash.
China needs the west - think of the size of the European and US economies - to be buying things. The longer there is economic damage that cools buying then it’s harder for China to fix its own economy.
So I’m not sure China wants to give large quantities of kit over a long time.
Maybe they will supply “untested” kit to see how it works in real war - they will have seen that the war has been a brilliant (if tragic) testing ground for western kit and best to try it out before thinking of using it in Taiwan but I honestly don’t think the instability suits them much longer.
They will very much enjoy being in a position to say “Stop” and be the big power.
China is supposedly assisting Russia in several stealthy ways. Enabling oil sales and so on
This might account for the benign situation in Moscow reported by @YBarddCwsc upthread, and the relative failure of western sanctions in terms of crippling Putin
So China can probably call the whole thing off by withdrawing support. eg I’m really not sure Russian allies in Central Asia would stand by Putin if Beijing instructed them otherwise. China can destroy everyone via trade
Interesting that Xi is heading for Kazakhstan this week
China will do what is in China's (or at least its ruling oligarchy's) best interest. In that they are no different to any other sovereign nation.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
Some bizarre analysis on here this morning. My favourite being that Germany wouldn’t be energy independent on Russia were it not for Brexit.
I also wonder about the quality of media people are consuming based on what they say about the war. It’s clear what’s happening in the next 3-6 months. The grinding destruction of Russian forces west of the Dnipro over autumn. Russia will then spend the winter desperately trying to reconstitute battered BTGs. Ukraine meanwhile will be rotating troops out with the newly trained forces. While picking up the intensity of shaping operations on Crimea for a spring offensive, which will be very vulnerable indeed after Kherson falls. The intensity of the Russian artillery war will all the while be dropping, as they deplete stockpiles of shells and barrels - see desperate eBay shopping from North Korea.
Russian leaders are historically judged by elites based upon their territorial gains or losses. And Crimea has special symbolic significance. Its property sector has also been used as a store of wealth for the chattering Muscovites since 2014. Its loss to the Russian empire will on my view be fatal to Putin, most likely literally not just figuratively.
Putin thinks he has two strong aces. But he doesn’t. They’re just cards that will bring short term human misery but undermine Russia’s strength not just in terms of this war but its long term future.
The first is the gas card. The market had already priced this in it can only be played once. As others have described, things will get easier over time. Germany has 4 lng vessels coming on stream this winter. Over a three year timescale the market with some govt backing substantially solves the problem.
The second is using Zap as a giant dirty bomb. But it’s hard to see how this changes the context of the war either on the ground, or strategically. Europe and Ukraine would have even greater resolve if he played that card, and he’d also likely force China’s hand in picking sides too.
What then? The leading contender is likely the fragmentation of the Russian federation, which will be pretty wild.
Russia is resilient. And most of its citizens are vividly patriotic, even in the outlying regions. I don’t believe it will break up in any significant way. An awful lot of Russians would fight that outcome, physically, for a start
But yes: China is key
Whole towns in the regions have been emptied of young men and had body bags and limbless cripples returning, to a local economy that in many cases already had little going for it, but even less so given the sanctions regime.
Also the longer the war goes on, the more Russia has to end up degrading its internal security structures to keep the fight going. I don’t think this is something that’s happening in 2023 but if you ask for my 5-year outlook for Russia, I think it pretty likely there will be attempts at unilateral secession and that Russia’s military will by then be unfit to stop it, even if it has a new strong man in charge (which it might not, it could be a shaky compromise candidate).
Also the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t operate the way you think it does. It is studied in its attempts to remain above the fray. SOEs aren’t buying Russian oil at the request of the US. The private sector is at the request of the Kremlin. The state is not providing arms but no doubt is providing civilian tech that might be repurposed. At every step, it manages its self interest in a very precise manner. Anyone expecting a Ribentrop - Molotov style pact, has an incomplete understanding of the political culture there.
Can someone explain to me the extravagance of Johnson and Truss flying in separate jets at our expense and no doubt separate cars to Balmoral; Not a good message on saving money. They could have gone together and one waited whilst the other left the Queens presence and then come back together.
I expect it was a decision taken by security, not the PM. Same as the US president and VP not flying on the same plane.
I do think the other options were better though - Johnson gets to fly up, but make his own way home and the reverse for Truss...
I thought Truss might have got the Caledonian Sleeper, or a BA flight first thing this morning. As others have suggested, her being the current foreign secretary might complicate the arrangements somewhat, as would be the fact that any travel delays would impinge on the Queen’s diary. Add to the security service concerns that they don’t fly together, and we can see why two government planes was the solution.
Another plane at Northolt taking Truss to Balmoral
That's bonkers, why didn't they go on the same plane? We're in the middle of an energy crisis! And Johnson could have shared some of his top tips for governing/best spots in No 10 for a fumble.
BBC said it is a security requirement that they travel separately
That's nuts if you actually think about it for more than five seconds. Johnson is about to stop being PM, so from a political/security POV it wouldn't matter if his plane crashed into the Cairngorms. Truss's security is all that matters, if her plane crashed it would be a disaster but if Johnson was on the same plane it wouldn't make it worse.
Exactly what I thought. Just another example of Johnson wasting taxpayers money to protect his fragile ego.
To be fair, this decision would not be taken by Johnson but the security services
But Mr J could overrride them. He's still PM (I think!).
He could have done, but this way he doesn't have to share with Truss...
Anyone know what's going on in the world of petrol retailing at the moment, because it seems deeply weird.
Up until recently, the cheapest fuel around was usually supermarkets in larger towns, and small "independent" retailers were 10-20p more expensive. Recently there seems to have been a total inversion. The cheapest two filling stations inside 20 miles of me (apart from a Costco, which is a bit of strange animal) are two independents at £1.59, the cheapest supermarkets are £1.65. I tried a few other random places in the petrol prices app (Sheffield, Dartford, Bath, Stoke-on-Trent) and in every case the cheapest fuel was either an unaffiliated independent or a Essar/Shell/Esso or similar franchise. (Cheapest fuel I found was a Shell in Dartford at £1.53).
What on earth is going on? Have the supermarkets just collectively decided not to compete for fuel sales any more (Asda used to be priced very aggressively - no more it seems), or is there some other reason for them being undercut by most independents to the tune of 5-10p?
What is the positive case for Truss establishing a poll lead, want to get the full picture when I place my bet
I think we political obsessives often forget that the public don't obsess like we do. For many Truss will be fresh, and they will not attach the baggage that we do. If she gets the next week right - decent speech from No 10 today, doesn't get destroyed by Starmer tomorrow (unlikely, as he is very good at missing open goals), and produces a package on the energy crisis that goes down well, then she has a chance of a poll lead. How likely is all that? Not sure. You also need to take into account the fatigue that the country has for the Tories (I'd argue its 7 years of a Tory government, but the media like to say 12, as if the coalition wasn't actually a coalition). I think many many people are sick of the Tories and want a change. Me included TBH. I have no great enthusiasm for Labour or the Lib Dems, but its time it wasn't Tories in charge.
The Coalition was 80% Conservative, so the 5 Years of a coalition government can be count as 4 years to a Conservative government :-)
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
What dependence on Russian finance? When the war began we sanctioned Russia as they were using our finance system, not the other way around.
Them resting their funds in our financial system enabled us to sanction them. It was a soft power weapon we could and did use against them, not vice-versa.
The only issue was gas. Europe being reliant upon Russian gas for energy security is the problem.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
By volume it was the biggest, and the infrastructure projects were designed to make itself a hub for the others.
By volume Germany is about double the next largest, which is Italy, and about four times the third largest the Netherlands. Yes some small neighbours of Russia are very dependent on Russia for energy, and other things, but Germany is Russia's biggest customer.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
Same reasons we haven't weaned ourselves off fossil fuels in general, even though those in power (and big companies) have known for over 30 years that it is driving us to catastrophe: greed, corruption, short-termism, wishful thinking, and the shit prevailing dogma probably best summed up as "greed is good"
Anyone know what's going on in the world of petrol retailing at the moment, because it seems deeply weird.
Up until recently, the cheapest fuel around was usually supermarkets in larger towns, and small "independent" retailers were 10-20p more expensive. Recently there seems to have been a total inversion. The cheapest two filling stations inside 20 miles of me (apart from a Costco, which is a bit of strange animal) are two independents at £1.59, the cheapest supermarkets are £1.65. I tried a few other random places in the petrol prices app (Sheffield, Dartford, Bath, Stoke-on-Trent) and in every case the cheapest fuel was either an unaffiliated independent or a Essar/Shell/Esso or similar franchise. (Cheapest fuel I found was a Shell in Dartford at £1.53).
What on earth is going on? Have the supermarkets just collectively decided not to compete for fuel sales any more (Asda used to be priced very aggressively - no more it seems), or is there some other reason for them being undercut by most independents to the tune of 5-10p?
It's a question that definitely requires investigation given that Asda and Morrisons have recently changed owners to private equity firms (and Morrisons is often way more expensive for food than elsewhere including Sainsburys to my surprise at the weekend).
Anyone know what's going on in the world of petrol retailing at the moment, because it seems deeply weird.
Up until recently, the cheapest fuel around was usually supermarkets in larger towns, and small "independent" retailers were 10-20p more expensive. Recently there seems to have been a total inversion. The cheapest two filling stations inside 20 miles of me (apart from a Costco, which is a bit of strange animal) are two independents at £1.59, the cheapest supermarkets are £1.65. I tried a few other random places in the petrol prices app (Sheffield, Dartford, Bath, Stoke-on-Trent) and in every case the cheapest fuel was either an unaffiliated independent or a Essar/Shell/Esso or similar franchise. (Cheapest fuel I found was a Shell in Dartford at £1.53).
What on earth is going on? Have the supermarkets just collectively decided not to compete for fuel sales any more (Asda used to be priced very aggressively - no more it seems), or is there some other reason for them being undercut by most independents to the tune of 5-10p?
Purely speculating, but I wonder if supermarkets are unable to compete so aggressively on petrol as a loss leader due to the huge losses they must be making on heat and power for their stores?
That was a textbook VIP accident. A combination of what pilots call ‘get-there-itis’, and that it was a military flight with the boss of the pilots, and his boss too, all sitting in the cockpit.
Lots of pressure to land the plane despite the thunderstorm, rather than be sensible pilots and divert as they were trained.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
What dependence on Russian finance? When the war began we sanctioned Russia as they were using our finance system, not the other way around.
Them resting their funds in our financial system enabled us to sanction them. It was a soft power weapon we could and did use against them, not vice-versa.
The only issue was gas. Europe being reliant upon Russian gas for energy security is the problem.
Significant parts of the UK economy were dependent on Russian money: Real Estate, Football, Media, Politics. It would be naive to say that money does not buy influence.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
There was no will to reduce dependence on Russian energy. You are barking up the wrong tree.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
Europe just did not see Russia invading Ukraine and were content to build gas supply pipes from Russia to provide their energy
At least the UK only depends on 4% energy from Russia but most people will look back at Merkel's time with Putin as a critical misjudgement leading to where we are today
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
The UK itself had very little structural dependence on hydrocarbons from Russia. The problem is the dependency of others which is now meaning increased competition for a reduced supply.
If Europe had focused on energy security rather than Brexit for the past six years we all would have been in a better place. No-one was talking about Russia until it was too late. We were all looking inward and left the back door open.
That's got to be the worst take on the energy issue I've seen in a while.
With a name of antiquity such as yours I am almost tempted to accuse you of being Boris Johnson and claim my £5, though I have no idea whether he has any connection with St Albans.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
I don’t know go and ask a European. The UK had a fifth of its diesel coming from Russian refineries but that’s a more liquid and straightforward market to find alternative supply. Our problem is that our marginal supply in winter comes from LNG and everyone else is now also bidding for that LNG.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
What dependence on Russian finance? When the war began we sanctioned Russia as they were using our finance system, not the other way around.
Them resting their funds in our financial system enabled us to sanction them. It was a soft power weapon we could and did use against them, not vice-versa.
The only issue was gas. Europe being reliant upon Russian gas for energy security is the problem.
Significant parts of the UK economy were dependent on Russian money: Real Estate, Football, Media, Politics. It would be naive to say that money does not buy influence.
Them putting their money into our system was a vulnerability for them, not us. It meant we could (and did) sanction them. It was a vulnerability for Russia.
If our money were resting in Russia and Russia could sanction us, then that would be a vulnerability for the UK. That wasn't the case.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
The inflation issue is across Europe as a direct result of war with Russia
As far as other economies are concerned have you even looked at Germany
No PM has had to deal simultaneously with brexit, covid and war in Europe which makes Blair's problems look like a walk in the park
The art of the job is to preempt and avoid problems, not run around firefighting them. Covid could not have been avoided, but we might have been better prepared. Meanwhile the Ukrainian war might have been avoided if Europe hadn’t been divided and distracted by Brexit. We certainly had 8 years to break our dependence on Russia.
I really had to read that twice to understand that you actually think that war in Ukraine could have been avoided if Europe hadn't been distracted by Brexit
With respect the war in Ukraine is a result of Russia invading the country and ironically Germany's inability to act against Russia, having prostituted herself through Merkel to Putin and his energy pipelines and also closing down their nuclear
If there is one country in Europe that has questions to answer it is Germany, not the UK
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
It's reasonable to ask the question why Putin thought he could get away with the invasion. The dependence on Russian finance and gas was clearly part of Putin's calculation.
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
There was no will to reduce dependence. You are barking up the wrong tree.
And why was there no will? We prioritised other things.
The Ukraine crisis did not come out of the blue. We were warned.
Comments
Are Tory supporters worried? Should we assign someone to worry Tory supporters?
He is certainly the best PM this decade so far, at least until lunchtime today.
I also wonder about the quality of media people are consuming based on what they say about the war. It’s clear what’s happening in the next 3-6 months. The grinding destruction of Russian forces west of the Dnipro over autumn. Russia will then spend the winter desperately trying to reconstitute battered BTGs. Ukraine meanwhile will be rotating troops out with the newly trained forces. While picking up the intensity of shaping operations on Crimea for a spring offensive, which will be very vulnerable indeed after Kherson falls. The intensity of the Russian artillery war will all the while be dropping, as they deplete stockpiles of shells and barrels - see desperate eBay shopping from North Korea.
Russian leaders are historically judged by elites based upon their territorial gains or losses. And Crimea has special symbolic significance. Its property sector has also been used as a store of wealth for the chattering Muscovites since 2014. Its loss to the Russian empire will on my view be fatal to Putin, most likely literally not just figuratively.
Putin thinks he has two strong aces. But he doesn’t. They’re just cards that will bring short term human misery but undermine Russia’s strength not just in terms of this war but its long term future.
The first is the gas card. The market had already priced this in it can only be played once. As others have described, things will get easier over time. Germany has 4 lng vessels coming on stream this winter. Over a three year timescale the market with some govt backing substantially solves the problem.
The second is using Zap as a giant dirty bomb. But it’s hard to see how this changes the context of the war either on the ground, or strategically. Europe and Ukraine would have even greater resolve if he played that card, and he’d also likely force China’s hand in picking sides too.
What then? The leading contender is likely the fragmentation of the Russian federation, which will be pretty wild.
How hard is it to get this sort of stuff right, especially for someone who has been in politics as long as she has?
And to be honest she is not any mp, she is de facto PM
But yes, it is ridiculous.
Apart from anything else, what's the worst that could happen? An engine failure leading to PM Sunak?
After a Scottish Parliamentary election, a First Minister is formally nominated by the Scottish Parliament and appointed by Her Majesty the Queen.
https://www.gov.scot/about/who-runs-government/
Presiding Officer Ken Macintosh will now recommend Sturgeon is appointed First Minister by the Queen.
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,nicola-sturgeon-elected-as-first-minister-by-scottish-parliament_6999.htm
The new first minister-elect, who will be confirmed as leader of the Scottish government by the Queen on Thursday…
https://www.ft.com/content/a3ba0b5c-7016-11e4-bc6a-00144feabdc0
BDS. Stockholm Syndrome. Still with us. Hopefully in its final stage now
If BoZo dies, Truss is PM.
If both of them die, who's next? Is it Raab, who was about to be sacked?
Is it Patel, who already resigned?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1566806384838152193?s=20&t=vKr7n2A-x0U6ZSJpO9aldg
TLDR: loads of countries can expect sharp demographic decline in the coming decades. The ones that won't are those with significant net immigration.
Shrinking countries with ethnically homogenous populations like China, Japan, South Korea and the whole of Eastern Europe will have a choice to make. It's China's population trajectory and the continuing US (relative) openness to immigration that make one wonder whether American hegemony will ever actually be threatened.
When Nigeria hits a billion people and becomes an economic powerhouse the world will look very different. All that Sub-Saharan migration people loudly worry about: we may instead see the Sahel emptying out in the direction of Lagos.
But yes: China is key
They could have gone together and one waited whilst the other left the Queens presence and then come back together.
Teacher in Hungary: 'Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'A tragedy is when my hamster dies.'
Teacher (enraged) 'Ridiculous! Your hamster dying might be a problem, but it's hardly a tragedy. Imagine if our great leader Comrade Kadar died, that would be a tragedy. Now, what is the difference between a problem and a tragedy?'
Child: 'My hamster dying is a problem, but not a tragedy. Comrade Kadar dying would be a tragedy but not a problem.'
Wiki:
"Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus (c. 519 – c. 430 BC) was a Roman patrician, statesman, and military leader of the early Roman Republic who became a legendary figure of Roman virtue—particularly civic virtue—by the time of the late Republic.
[...] He came from his plough to assume complete control over the state but, upon achieving a swift victory in only 16 days,[1] relinquished his power and its perquisites and returned to his farm. His success and immediate resignation of his near-absolute authority with the end of this crisis (traditionally dated to 458 BC) has often been cited as an example of outstanding leadership, service to the greater good, civic virtue, humility, and modesty. "
Edit: Memory wrong, but history may be too:
"Cincinnatus came out of retirement for a second term as dictator in 439 BC to deal with the feared plot of the wealthy plebeian Spurius Maelius to buy the loyalty of the poor and establish himself as king over Rome. [... ]With the crisis resolved, Cincinnatus again resigned his commission, having served 21 days [...] Various aspects of the story are connected with spurious etiological legends and it may have no more connection to the dictator of 458 BC than the fact that the Cincinnatus of 439 BC was a member of the same clan.[24]"
Do they bring the active sub into Faslane to swap the letters out?
If Russia self-emasculates itself in Ukraine then it reinforces China's position as the sole Eastern power. Russia has tried to keep its own 'sphere of influence' but a weakened Russia could end up not just losing its own sphere but in China's sphere.
I suspect Xi is quite content to see Putin fail.
Males put the right-wing Swedish Democrats first and the Moderate Party second:
Females prefer the Social Democrats and the Left Party.
I have managed to keep the half a stone off that I lost initially.
Unfortunately though I started drinking again and went on several holidays, so there has been little real progress in losing weight or getting more healthy.
I have gone to the gym/swam a couple of times a week, that has been my exercise.
Now I am back again to 2 weeks without drinking, and have gone back to my bike as a method of getting around.
Going to be quite challenging as I have a series of weekends away coming up to visit friends/family.
I think the only way forward is through stopping drinking, keeping to a calorie/nutrition controlled diet, building up strong habits, and routine.
China needs the west - think of the size of the European and US economies - to be buying things. The longer there is economic damage that cools buying then it’s harder for China to fix its own economy.
So I’m not sure China wants to give large quantities of kit over a long time.
Maybe they will supply “untested” kit to see how it works in real war - they will have seen that the war has been a brilliant (if tragic) testing ground for western kit and best to try it out before thinking of using it in Taiwan but I honestly don’t think the instability suits them much longer.
They will very much enjoy being in a position to say “Stop” and be the big power.
On the day that Boris became leader you were adamant that his election was such a disaster it would mean Corbyn winning the next election and becoming PM. Fast forward to the election and Boris won an 80 seat majority and Corbyn the worst result in nearly a century.
I would take your predictions of Truss's imminent fall with a large pinch of salt.
It would be a misfortune if Gladstone were to fall in the Thames. It would be a calamity if someone fished him out.
If he did people would be attacking his disregard for 'the rules'.
There, I've said it.
Tony Blair was visiting a primary school and he visited one of the classes. They were in the middle of a discussion related to words and their meanings.
The teacher asked the Prime Minister if he would like to lead the discussion on the word "tragedy". So the illustrious leader asked the class for an example of a "tragedy".
One little boy stood up and offered: "If my best friend, who lives on a farm, is playing in the field & a tractor runs over him and kills him, that would be a 'tragedy'".
"No," said Blair, "that would be an accident."
A little girl raised her hand: "If a school bus carrying fifty children drove over a cliff, killing everyone inside, that would be a tragedy."
"I'm afraid not," explained the Prime Minister, "that's what we would call a great loss."
The room went silent. No other children volunteered. Tony searched the room.
"Isn't there someone here who can give me an example of tragedy?"
Finally, at the back of the room, a small boy raised his hand...In a quiet voice he said: "If the Air plane carrying you and Mrs Blair was struck by a "friendly fire" missile & blown to smithereens, that would be a tragedy."
"Fantastic!" exclaimed Tony Blair. "That's right. And can you tell me why that would be tragedy?"
"Well," says the boy "it has to be a tragedy, because it certainly wouldn't be a great loss and it probably wouldn't be a f*cking accident either!"
For once, it looks like OGH has done his money on his Tory poll lead bet.
I do think the other options were better though - Johnson gets to fly up, but make his own way home and the reverse for Truss...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/
in 2021 Germany was only 15th in the list of European countries most dependent on Russian gas. So maybe there's more than one country in Europe?
This might account for the benign situation in Moscow reported by @YBarddCwsc upthread, and the relative failure of western sanctions in terms of crippling Putin
So China can probably call the whole thing off by withdrawing support. eg I’m really not sure Russian allies in Central Asia would stand by Putin if Beijing instructed them otherwise. China can destroy everyone via trade
Interesting that Xi is heading for Kazakhstan this week
Every single poll in Scotland since the 2019 GE has double-digit SNP leads.
Lowest lead: 16%
Highest lead: 38%
It is also reasonable to ask why Europe as whole didn't wean itself off dependence on Russia after Crimea. We had eight years. What did we focus on in that time?
Also the longer the war goes on, the more Russia has to end up degrading its internal security structures to keep the fight going. I don’t think this is something that’s happening in 2023 but if you ask for my 5-year outlook for Russia, I think it pretty likely there will be attempts at unilateral secession and that Russia’s military will by then be unfit to stop it, even if it has a new strong man in charge (which it might not, it could be a shaky compromise candidate).
Also the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t operate the way you think it does. It is studied in its attempts to remain above the fray. SOEs aren’t buying Russian oil at the request of the US. The private sector is at the request of the Kremlin. The state is not providing arms but no doubt is providing civilian tech that might be repurposed. At every step, it manages its self interest in a very precise manner. Anyone expecting a Ribentrop - Molotov style pact, has an incomplete understanding of the political culture there.
The Falcon 900LX average cost of operation is given as $3,500 per hour, so it’s hardly breaking the bank.
https://altivationaircraft.com/falcon-900lx/
Up until recently, the cheapest fuel around was usually supermarkets in larger towns, and small "independent" retailers were 10-20p more expensive. Recently there seems to have been a total inversion. The cheapest two filling stations inside 20 miles of me (apart from a Costco, which is a bit of strange animal) are two independents at £1.59, the cheapest supermarkets are £1.65.
I tried a few other random places in the petrol prices app (Sheffield, Dartford, Bath, Stoke-on-Trent) and in every case the cheapest fuel was either an unaffiliated independent or a Essar/Shell/Esso or similar franchise. (Cheapest fuel I found was a Shell in Dartford at £1.53).
What on earth is going on? Have the supermarkets just collectively decided not to compete for fuel sales any more (Asda used to be priced very aggressively - no more it seems), or is there some other reason for them being undercut by most independents to the tune of 5-10p?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster
Them resting their funds in our financial system enabled us to sanction them. It was a soft power weapon we could and did use against them, not vice-versa.
The only issue was gas. Europe being reliant upon Russian gas for energy security is the problem.
Lots of pressure to land the plane despite the thunderstorm, rather than be sensible pilots and divert as they were trained.
At least the UK only depends on 4% energy from Russia but most people will look back at Merkel's time with Putin as a critical misjudgement leading to where we are today
If our money were resting in Russia and Russia could sanction us, then that would be a vulnerability for the UK. That wasn't the case.
The Ukraine crisis did not come out of the blue. We were warned.