She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.
I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.
We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.
On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.
I do feel she is going to be (unfairly) compared to T May... somewhat wooden on camera, perhaps too thorough and heading up a party that remains divided in the extreme. I still reckon a GE in 2023 beckons
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I do feel she is going to be (unfairly) compared to T May... somewhat wooden on camera, perhaps too thorough and heading up a party that remains divided in the extreme. I still reckon a GE in 2023 beckons
Is thorough the right word for someone who ditches policies when their obvious consequences are pointed out?
I do feel she is going to be (unfairly) compared to T May... somewhat wooden on camera, perhaps too thorough and heading up a party that remains divided in the extreme. I still reckon a GE in 2023 beckons
Is thorough the right word for someone who ditches policies when their obvious consequences are pointed out?
She is thorough - in her own mind. She seems to be tending towards the autistic end of the spectrum. Not an agile mind.
I don’t think she is “ditching policies”. She is kite flying. Well, I hope she is kite flying, because if she isn’t then an awful lot of vulnerable people are about to have the worst winter of their lives. For many their final winter.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
I don't see why the Prime Minister would not be replaced before the next election, unless she calls an early election herself.
If the scenario is that the government is unpopular two years from now with an election looming, then the options are replacing Truss before the election, or replacing her immediately afterwards. There is no advantage for the party in delaying the inevitable, and very little for Truss herself because there is no chance she will remain Leader of the Opposition for five years to fight the election after next.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
- ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”
There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Appalling productivity is appalling productivity. Only so much lipstick you can stick on a pig.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.
I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.
We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.
On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.
"respect and friendship"
You should follow your own advice when talking about the English, then.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
She is starting from a position of nearly universal detestation and ridicule. There aren't even many on here who are Truss Clit Polishers. Barty Bobs and LuckyGuy a bit. That's about it. Even HYUFD and Big G aren't on board with the Lizlamic Jihad.
May and Johnson started off with a far greater level of arse lickers on pb.com though they fell away as the various fiascos unwound.
Voting is very slow in the ongoing Swedish general election. Polling stations have been open for two weeks already, but only 1 million voters have cast there votes with a week to go. At the same time point 4 years ago the number of votes cast was 1.2 million.
Approximately 7.5 million people are eligible to vote. Turnout is always high, it was 87.1% last time.
I’m not surprised voting is slow this year: an awful lot of people are swithering about their “usual” parties. It took me ages to make my mind up, and I may still revise my vote.
On the other hand, research indicates that very few voters change their minds in the final week. Which spells catastrophe for the Moderates.
- ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”
There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.
I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
Sinn Féin 36% (nc) Fine Gael 21% (-1) Fianna Fáil 16% (-1) People Before Profit/Solidarity 5% (+1) Social Democrats 4% (nc) Aontú 3% (nc) Labour 3% (nc) Greens 2% (-2) others/independents 11% (+2)
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Appalling productivity is appalling productivity. Only so much lipstick you can stick on a pig.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
Direction of travel matters.
In my "Russia defeated" scenario, the UK will be blessed with falling energy import costs, which feed through into higher disposable income, lower inflation and lower interest rates. People will start to feel better, and the government will have that much more room.
- ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”
There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.
I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.
She looks human.
Far more people are like Truss - 'strange and awkward', as you put it - than polished and 'normal'. Especially when in the glare of the media.
Boris about to deliver (7.30) his farewell speech and he and Truss fly to the Queen in Scotland to confirm the new PM in office
As I said yesterday I have reservations over Truss but at least this morning we know Patel, Dorries and Frost are history so that is at least very good news
It is also good that finally the HOC are in session and if they have any sense they will cancel the recess for conferences and get on running the country
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Appalling productivity is appalling productivity. Only so much lipstick you can stick on a pig.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
Direction of travel matters.
In my "Russia defeated" scenario, the UK will be blessed with falling energy import costs, which feed through into higher disposable income, lower inflation and lower interest rates. People will start to feel better, and the government will have that much more room.
It would have to be total Russian defeat with regime change and gas sold to pay reparations for sanctions to end. I cannot see that happening for a while yet.
I think though that energy usage can drop quite significantly without impacting life too much. We are far too extravagant with it at present, so prices will fall for that reason. Covid showed both business and domestic users are more flexible than many assumed.
Boris about to deliver (7.30) his farewell speech and he and Truss fly to the Queen in Scotland to confirm the new PM in office
As I said yesterday I have reservations over Truss but at least this morning we know Patel, Dorries and Frost are history so that is at least very good news
It is also good that finally the HOC are in session and if they have any sense they will cancel the recess for conferences and get on running the country
Truss has made some progress clearing out the dross of the cabinet. But she can’t remove herself. We need a change of government for the reset we need.
In some ways, the the energy crisis is actually a blessing for Truss and the Tories as it will prevent them going the whole hog on unleashing the full trickle down experiment on the British people they ate clearly planning at some stage if they remain in office. Now, though, they have to se the power of the state to guarantee (and Truss has guaranteed) that the lights stay on this winter and next year. That will, inevitably, buy some significant polling bounce back. Without this, huge tax breaks for the rich, the slashing of workers rights, ongoing conflict with the EU and massive cuts in public services may well have been the only thing that voters noticed.
- ”One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering.”
There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.
I don't think it is anything to do with gender. She just looks so strange and awkward. It reminds me a bit of John Redwood trying to fit in by miming the Welsh national anthem.
She doesn't look 'strange and awkward'.
She looks human.
Far more people are like Truss - 'strange and awkward', as you put it - than polished and 'normal'. Especially when in the glare of the media.
You are correct. But that did not help Ed Miliband. He may well be the closest equivalent to her: clearly very smart, full of interesting ideas, socially awkward and entirely unsuited to leadership.
Boris about to deliver (7.30) his farewell speech and he and Truss fly to the Queen in Scotland to confirm the new PM in office
As I said yesterday I have reservations over Truss but at least this morning we know Patel, Dorries and Frost are history so that is at least very good news
It is also good that finally the HOC are in session and if they have any sense they will cancel the recess for conferences and get on running the country
Truss has made some progress clearing out the dross of the cabinet. But she can’t remove herself. We need a change of government for the reset we need.
I would suggest Labour is not what we need but to be fair the conservative party have been doing their best to hand them the prize
2 years in this volatile economic environment may well see Labour win but I would caution Labour supporters not to take anything for granted
Angela Rayner on R4 Today: jeepers creepers. Mind-bogglingly poor. WTF has happened to the Labour Party? The dearth of talent at the top is excruciatingly painful.
Boris about to deliver (7.30) his farewell speech and he and Truss fly to the Queen in Scotland to confirm the new PM in office
As I said yesterday I have reservations over Truss but at least this morning we know Patel, Dorries and Frost are history so that is at least very good news
It is also good that finally the HOC are in session and if they have any sense they will cancel the recess for conferences and get on running the country
Truss has made some progress clearing out the dross of the cabinet. But she can’t remove herself. We need a change of government for the reset we need.
I would suggest Labour is not what we need but to be fair the conservative party have been doing their best to hand them the prize
2 years in this volatile economic environment may well see Labour win but I would caution Labour supporters not to take anything for granted
What do we need? More of the Tory Party? More of this? We’ve had 12 years of that and what have they done with it? Or have we not had the “real” Conservative Party yet, like some say we’ve never tried proper Communism?
Boris about to deliver (7.30) his farewell speech and he and Truss fly to the Queen in Scotland to confirm the new PM in office
As I said yesterday I have reservations over Truss but at least this morning we know Patel, Dorries and Frost are history so that is at least very good news
It is also good that finally the HOC are in session and if they have any sense they will cancel the recess for conferences and get on running the country
Truss has made some progress clearing out the dross of the cabinet. But she can’t remove herself. We need a change of government for the reset we need.
I would suggest Labour is not what we need but to be fair the conservative party have been doing their best to hand them the prize
2 years in this volatile economic environment may well see Labour win but I would caution Labour supporters not to take anything for granted
Never take anything for granted, but after 12 years of Tory chaos the country is in a seriously bad state. We need change and fresh thinking. Rest assured Labour will work hard and with luck will win. We’ve done it before, we can do it again. Not easy though, but absolutely necessary.
In some ways, the the energy crisis is actually a blessing for Truss and the Tories as it will prevent them going the whole hog on unleashing the full trickle down experiment on the British people they ate clearly planning at some stage if they remain in office. Now, though, they have to se the power of the state to guarantee (and Truss has guaranteed) that the lights stay on this winter and next year. That will, inevitably, buy some significant polling bounce back. Without this, huge tax breaks for the rich, the slashing of workers rights, ongoing conflict with the EU and massive cuts in public services may well have been the only thing that voters noticed.
In some ways, the the energy crisis is actually a blessing for Truss and the Tories as it will prevent them going the whole hog on unleashing the full trickle down experiment on the British people they ate clearly planning at some stage if they remain in office. Now, though, they have to se the power of the state to guarantee (and Truss has guaranteed) that the lights stay on this winter and next year. That will, inevitably, buy some significant polling bounce back. Without this, huge tax breaks for the rich, the slashing of workers rights, ongoing conflict with the EU and massive cuts in public services may well have been the only thing that voters noticed.
Is it possible to guarantee the lights stay on this winter? It is not entirely about price, but also about supply.
I am not convinced there is much electoral reward in it either, though pretty certainly less if she has to bring back the 3 day week.
I can’t think of an incoming cabinet that has been trailed so comprehensively before (at least during a midterm change of PM). So far we know the next occupants of the great offices of state and we have very strong rumours about business and health.
I think we were pretty clear that we were expecting Hammond and Javid as Chancellor for May and Boris respectively, but I don’t believe the identity of the other ministers was well known.
Boris about to deliver (7.30) his farewell speech and he and Truss fly to the Queen in Scotland to confirm the new PM in office
As I said yesterday I have reservations over Truss but at least this morning we know Patel, Dorries and Frost are history so that is at least very good news
It is also good that finally the HOC are in session and if they have any sense they will cancel the recess for conferences and get on running the country
The legislative Commons doesn’t run the country, the executive Cabinet is supposed to do that, the Commons just provides the money and the rules.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Appalling productivity is appalling productivity. Only so much lipstick you can stick on a pig.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
Direction of travel matters.
In my "Russia defeated" scenario, the UK will be blessed with falling energy import costs, which feed through into higher disposable income, lower inflation and lower interest rates. People will start to feel better, and the government will have that much more room.
It would have to be total Russian defeat with regime change and gas sold to pay reparations for sanctions to end. I cannot see that happening for a while yet.
I think though that energy usage can drop quite significantly without impacting life too much. We are far too extravagant with it at present, so prices will fall for that reason. Covid showed both business and domestic users are more flexible than many assumed.
Dictatorships are brittle. The Putin regime could fall overnight.
Angela Rayner on R4 Today: jeepers creepers. Mind-bogglingly poor. WTF has happened to the Labour Party? The dearth of talent at the top is excruciatingly painful.
I missed that, but yes the only thing that can make the Labour front bench look good is the government front bench.
Boris about to deliver (7.30) his farewell speech and he and Truss fly to the Queen in Scotland to confirm the new PM in office
As I said yesterday I have reservations over Truss but at least this morning we know Patel, Dorries and Frost are history so that is at least very good news
It is also good that finally the HOC are in session and if they have any sense they will cancel the recess for conferences and get on running the country
Truss has made some progress clearing out the dross of the cabinet. But she can’t remove herself. We need a change of government for the reset we need.
I would suggest Labour is not what we need but to be fair the conservative party have been doing their best to hand them the prize
2 years in this volatile economic environment may well see Labour win but I would caution Labour supporters not to take anything for granted
What do we need? More of the Tory Party? More of this? We’ve had 12 years of that and what have they done with it? Or have we not had the “real” Conservative Party yet, like some say we’ve never tried proper Communism?
You may find that you have a fight on your hand if Truss does address voter concerns, as Starmer has not yet sealed it with the electorate not least with just a 29% approval rate
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Appalling productivity is appalling productivity. Only so much lipstick you can stick on a pig.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
Direction of travel matters.
In my "Russia defeated" scenario, the UK will be blessed with falling energy import costs, which feed through into higher disposable income, lower inflation and lower interest rates. People will start to feel better, and the government will have that much more room.
It would have to be total Russian defeat with regime change and gas sold to pay reparations for sanctions to end. I cannot see that happening for a while yet.
I think though that energy usage can drop quite significantly without impacting life too much. We are far too extravagant with it at present, so prices will fall for that reason. Covid showed both business and domestic users are more flexible than many assumed.
On the subject of energy usage, I agree 100%. There is an awful lot we can do that will have almost no impact on our standard of living.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Appalling productivity is appalling productivity. Only so much lipstick you can stick on a pig.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
Direction of travel matters.
In my "Russia defeated" scenario, the UK will be blessed with falling energy import costs, which feed through into higher disposable income, lower inflation and lower interest rates. People will start to feel better, and the government will have that much more room.
It would have to be total Russian defeat with regime change and gas sold to pay reparations for sanctions to end. I cannot see that happening for a while yet.
I think though that energy usage can drop quite significantly without impacting life too much. We are far too extravagant with it at present, so prices will fall for that reason. Covid showed both business and domestic users are more flexible than many assumed.
Dictatorships are brittle. The Putin regime could fall overnight.
It could, but there isn't a pro peace, retreat from Ukraine government waiting in the wings. It could easily be an even more right wing Russian regime that replaces Putin.
Angela Rayner on R4 Today: jeepers creepers. Mind-bogglingly poor. WTF has happened to the Labour Party? The dearth of talent at the top is excruciatingly painful.
She was not any better on BBC
I expect Labour are worried at the prospect of a 2 year energy freeze from Truss
In some ways, the the energy crisis is actually a blessing for Truss and the Tories as it will prevent them going the whole hog on unleashing the full trickle down experiment on the British people they ate clearly planning at some stage if they remain in office. Now, though, they have to se the power of the state to guarantee (and Truss has guaranteed) that the lights stay on this winter and next year. That will, inevitably, buy some significant polling bounce back. Without this, huge tax breaks for the rich, the slashing of workers rights, ongoing conflict with the EU and massive cuts in public services may well have been the only thing that voters noticed.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas. Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from? All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny. How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west? If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China. I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime. Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine. So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia. The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
Why is Scotland so full of bigots, TBF he's right.
Douglas Henshall, one of the stars of Shetland, has apologised after using a derogatory term for Rangers supporters on social media.
The actor, 56, admitted it was “dumb and inflammatory” for him to call followers of the Ibrox club “Huns” in the wake of their 4-0 defeat by Celtic at Parkhead in Saturday’s Old Firm derby.
He wrote on Twitter: “It’s always a good day when the Huns get humped. Lol.”
In some ways, the the energy crisis is actually a blessing for Truss and the Tories as it will prevent them going the whole hog on unleashing the full trickle down experiment on the British people they ate clearly planning at some stage if they remain in office. Now, though, they have to se the power of the state to guarantee (and Truss has guaranteed) that the lights stay on this winter and next year. That will, inevitably, buy some significant polling bounce back. Without this, huge tax breaks for the rich, the slashing of workers rights, ongoing conflict with the EU and massive cuts in public services may well have been the only thing that voters noticed.
Is it possible to guarantee the lights stay on this winter? It is not entirely about price, but also about supply.
I am not convinced there is much electoral reward in it either, though pretty certainly less if she has to bring back the 3 day week.
It's not possible to guarantee anything.
An accident at a Norwegian oil and gas field, unscheduled maintenance at one of the UK's nuclear plants, or a bitterly cold (and windless) winter could conspire to see shortages.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas. Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from? All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny. How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west? If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China. I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime. Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine. So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia. The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
Trouble for Russia is that China has eyes on Russian territory, and is probably more of a threat than the West, unless you count Ukraine and Crimea which, of course, Putin does.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
Technically I give her 14 months, she'll be ousted by the 2023 Tory conference.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Appalling productivity is appalling productivity. Only so much lipstick you can stick on a pig.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
Direction of travel matters.
In my "Russia defeated" scenario, the UK will be blessed with falling energy import costs, which feed through into higher disposable income, lower inflation and lower interest rates. People will start to feel better, and the government will have that much more room.
It would have to be total Russian defeat with regime change and gas sold to pay reparations for sanctions to end. I cannot see that happening for a while yet.
I think though that energy usage can drop quite significantly without impacting life too much. We are far too extravagant with it at present, so prices will fall for that reason. Covid showed both business and domestic users are more flexible than many assumed.
On the subject of energy usage, I agree 100%. There is an awful lot we can do that will have almost no impact on our standard of living.
Not just can do, but have to do this winter. The supply is still going to be short 15-20%, so any plan needs to incorporate and encourage reduced usage.
Apologies for using the site for a personal issue. We have a problem. We have arrived in France and can't make calls/texts from our mobile. It is an iPhone on a Vodafone pay-as-you -go contract. The settings seem fine and there is a healthy balance on the account. We were in France/Italy for 3 weeks in June, no problems. I'd be eternally grateful if any tech savvy PBer could suggest anything that might help out.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas. Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from? All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny. How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west? If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China. I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime. Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine. So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia. The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
It won’t be Russian gas, it will be American and Qatari gas, with possibly a bit of Ukranian gas thrown in. The issue is the lack of transport options, which is being urgently addressed but won’t be online this winter.
The first 5 took 10 years (1953-1963) The last 5 took 12 years (2010-2022)
The middle 5 took 37 years (1970-2007)
Well, they're totally wrong, because the first five were Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Home and Wilson. Wilson became PM in October 1964, twelve years into HM's reign.
The next five were Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair, so 27 years (not counting Wilson twice).
And Truss is the fourth PM since 2010, not the fifth, so it was 15 years since Brown.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas. Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from? All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny. How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west? If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China. I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime. Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine. So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia. The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
I disagree.
At some point, Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine comes to an end. Them buying ammunition from the North Koreans and raiding the asylums for soliders suggests that that might be nearer than we imagine.
What happens then?
Well, I would suggest that Putin is unlikely to survive defeat in Ukraine.
But changing the leader doesn't change the situation on the ground. They can be as nationalist as they like, but reality has to intervene.
If Putin falls, the next leader has to find some kind of peace with the West, because Russia depends on Western technology to extract the oil and gas that they sell to the World.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
Appalling productivity is appalling productivity. Only so much lipstick you can stick on a pig.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
Direction of travel matters.
In my "Russia defeated" scenario, the UK will be blessed with falling energy import costs, which feed through into higher disposable income, lower inflation and lower interest rates. People will start to feel better, and the government will have that much more room.
It would have to be total Russian defeat with regime change and gas sold to pay reparations for sanctions to end. I cannot see that happening for a while yet.
I think though that energy usage can drop quite significantly without impacting life too much. We are far too extravagant with it at present, so prices will fall for that reason. Covid showed both business and domestic users are more flexible than many assumed.
Dictatorships are brittle. The Putin regime could fall overnight.
It could, but there isn't a pro peace, retreat from Ukraine government waiting in the wings. It could easily be an even more right wing Russian regime that replaces Putin.
It may. But any 'even more right wing' government than Putin's would face exactly the same issues he does at the moment. They've got themselves into a hideous mess in Ukraine, so how does an 'even more right wing' government get out of the mess?
The sane way would be to try to rebuild relationships with the world that has them under sanctions: and that would probably involve withdrawal from Ukraine with some heft penalties. They have few realistic military options, given the way their military has performed.
For this reason, I'd expect a leftist or more centrist government to come out of this: one that, if nationalistic, wants desperately to rebuild relationships with other countries.
Boris is due to speak at half past so in about two minutes time.
Hope it all went well yesterday at the hospital?
Well, I won a prize: a free prescription! A lot of sitting around on what was their busiest Monday in months. You could see a few things that could be done to fix signage and other minor points, but fundamentally they need more doctors.
I feel for clinical staff though. The walls of the consulting room were plastered with advice, charts and checklists; surely too much for anyone to absorb.
Then onto my GP to hand in a test sample, only to be told it needed to be there before 10am. As with the hospital, a lot is set up for regular users and not explained for new ones.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas. Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from? All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny. How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west? If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China. I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime. Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine. So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia. The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
Trouble for Russia is that China has eyes on Russian territory, and is probably more of a threat than the West, unless you count Ukraine and Crimea which, of course, Putin does.
You would have thought that China would be seen as a threat, but Russia doesn't really act as if this is the case. It may well be the case that Russia can ultimately coexist with China (perhaps as a client state) more effectively than it can co-exist with the west. China doesn't issue any demands about 'human rights' for instance. Navalny was briefly stripped of his prisoner of conscence status by Amnesty International due to decades old homophobia. The more the west goes in a 'woke' direction, the more it ultimately veers away from Russia. It is possible however that this could change if Trump comes back in 2024.
It could, but there isn't a pro peace, retreat from Ukraine government waiting in the wings. It could easily be an even more right wing Russian regime that replaces Putin.
Or possibily nuclear armed civil war. I'm sure the CIA would be stoking the Tartarstan and Bashkortostan secessionist movements with glee.
In a way it's almost reassuring to know that came rain, shine, gas shortages, nutcase Fascists taking over the US and the Chinese deciding to destroy themselves to satisfy Winnie's ego, two things remain the same:
1) The ECB will find a way to epically fuck up cricket
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of all my lifetime. Good riddance.
Yep. The one who finally dethroned the infamous Lord Goderich, who remains the only PM never to meet Parliament.
I didn't think even Johnson could be as inept as that.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
In some ways, the the energy crisis is actually a blessing for Truss and the Tories as it will prevent them going the whole hog on unleashing the full trickle down experiment on the British people they ate clearly planning at some stage if they remain in office. Now, though, they have to se the power of the state to guarantee (and Truss has guaranteed) that the lights stay on this winter and next year. That will, inevitably, buy some significant polling bounce back. Without this, huge tax breaks for the rich, the slashing of workers rights, ongoing conflict with the EU and massive cuts in public services may well have been the only thing that voters noticed.
How can the state guarantee supply?
Truss has said there will be no rationing and no blackouts. That's a guarantee, isn't it?
In some ways, the the energy crisis is actually a blessing for Truss and the Tories as it will prevent them going the whole hog on unleashing the full trickle down experiment on the British people they ate clearly planning at some stage if they remain in office. Now, though, they have to se the power of the state to guarantee (and Truss has guaranteed) that the lights stay on this winter and next year. That will, inevitably, buy some significant polling bounce back. Without this, huge tax breaks for the rich, the slashing of workers rights, ongoing conflict with the EU and massive cuts in public services may well have been the only thing that voters noticed.
Is it possible to guarantee the lights stay on this winter? It is not entirely about price, but also about supply.
I am not convinced there is much electoral reward in it either, though pretty certainly less if she has to bring back the 3 day week.
Yep, she should not have guaranteed it. But she has.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
I don't think any incumbent government would be showing healthy polling leads given the rising cost of living, but the rest I agree with.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas. Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from? All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny. How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west? If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China. I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime. Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine. So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia. The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
Trouble for Russia is that China has eyes on Russian territory, and is probably more of a threat than the West, unless you count Ukraine and Crimea which, of course, Putin does.
You would have thought that China would be seen as a threat, but Russia doesn't really act as if this is the case. It may well be the case that Russia can ultimately coexist with China (perhaps as a client state) more effectively than it can co-exist with the west. China doesn't issue any demands about 'human rights' for instance. Navalny was briefly stripped of his prisoner of conscence status by Amnesty International due to decades old homophobia. The more the west goes in a 'woke' direction, the more it ultimately veers away from Russia. It is possible however that this could change if Trump comes back in 2024.
To a point, but Russia has military bases in the East for a reason. Indeed, one of Russia's problems is that it is too big for its conventional forces to defend; they cannot be in two (or four) places at once, and those places are too far apart.
China is not going to war (probably) but it can splash the cash. There has been recent movement of ex-Soviet Central Asian republics ("stan countries") closer to China's economic orbit while Putin's attention was on the EU tempting the Baltic states.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
Due to his incompetence, we all now have to go through lots of motion.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
9/11 did not directly affect us as Covid did; possibly an order of magnitude less. The dot-com bubble was three years into his PMship. And the Balkans conflict was far less of a threat than Ukraine.It can be argued that the NHS was in a hell of a state through Blair's years: remember Stafford? And Blair's government was more than happy to suckle on Russian money.
I'd argue Covid was the biggest unexpected issue any government has faced since WW2? Even the Falklands was not as big a threat, or have as big an impact.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
I agree.
And punters agree.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86 2024 3 2023 5 2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
"Her only hope"?
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
Aha. That old peach: fate versus agency.
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
I don't deny her agency, I merely point to the fact that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails (and with it the Putin regime), then the economic outlook will look very different to a situation where war drags on and gas becomes ever scarcer.
I am quite interested as to why people think that the 'fall of the Putin regime' will lead to cheaper gas. Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from? All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny. How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west? If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China. I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime. Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine. So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia. The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
I disagree.
At some point, Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine comes to an end. Them buying ammunition from the North Koreans and raiding the asylums for soliders suggests that that might be nearer than we imagine.
What happens then?
Well, I would suggest that Putin is unlikely to survive defeat in Ukraine.
But changing the leader doesn't change the situation on the ground. They can be as nationalist as they like, but reality has to intervene.
If Putin falls, the next leader has to find some kind of peace with the West, because Russia depends on Western technology to extract the oil and gas that they sell to the World.
I don't see this. It seems like Ukraine is basically a mercenary invasion, the soldiers are poor people enticed by high wages. There is no significant conscription or general mobilisation. The fact that there are adverts in odd places is not really all that significant in the scheme of things. There are lots of 'anecdotes' and 'reports' but not too much weight should be put on them, in my opinion. If the position is really bad, to the point where it is endangering his position, Putin can quit and declare victory at any point, as the situation stands. Obviously, he was expecting a 2014 style cakewalk and this has not gone to plan. But Putin has adapted to the situation and is still really holding all the cards here as far as I can see. I think that he is calculating that he can sow greater discord and chaos in the west (and across the world) by continuing the war, and this outweighs any domestic difficulties that may occur in consequence.
As an example of this, Putin has played a blinder with the gas prices thing, Zarah Sultana leading 'enough is enough' and Boris Johnson was telling them that it is all the price we have to pay for 'beating back' Putin, Now Liz Truss comes along and says that the solution is in tax cuts for the rich.
Autumn is coming fast to the Baltic. Still dry and sunny, but the winter chill is slowly returning. The Estonians are pretty relaxed about the advent of Liz Truss as UK PM. She has met the key leaders here on numerous occasions and has generally said the right things. There is no expectation that Britain will suddenly go rogue on the critical issue of support for Ukraine. There are certain potential members of the UK cabinet who are not well thought of however, so I think that the final assessment will depend on her choice of ministers.
I was speaking to some Estonians close to the military last night, and for the first time there was almost pity in their comments about Russia. Those who have contacts on the other side of the border describe the current military and political problems in Moscow as "close to terminal". The move to cut off the gas supply to Europe is seen as a mark of their utter desperation. The recruitment of mental patients, getting shells from North Korea etc also reflecting the break down of the Russian armed forces. It is thought that at least 20,000 Russian troops are now trapped on the right bank of the Dnipro and they are being caught in a mincing machine that is slowly, but inevitably leading to the breakdown of their cohesion.
Ramzan Kadyrov, the despicable Putinist leader of the the Chechens is a critical figure in the regime, and it has been Chechen shock troops who have been used to drive Russian units forward, with their reputation for disgusting brutality being a threat at least as much to their own side as to the Ukrainians. Therefore the announcement that Kadyrov will be "taking a long break" may be an early sign of growing uncertainty and instability at the centre. The regime has relied on balancing the forces of different groups: Army, FSB, Razgvardia and the Chechens. Any sense that the balance is shifting could indicate that the regime faces serious internal problems. "Watch this space", as they say.
One thing is for sure: Russian military problems are getting worse by the day. For the first time in months the Russians are trying to restart talks, to try to hold what they have before any further defeat alters the facts on the ground. Yet, as what is left of the harvest comes in and the leaves turn, the Ukrainians are in no mood to accept a diplomatic coup de main. Though the casualties in Ukraine are only now beginning to emerge (its now closing on a million civilians) the challenges for Putin are also growing, and no one, either in Ukraine or in any of the front line states has any interest in easing that position. As long as Liz Truss continues to support that view, there will be few issues that can complicate the good UK-front line relationship. As even the Germans come onside with significant weapons now being delivered, Putin may have made yet another miscalculation.
The quickest route to easing the cost of living crisis is the defeat of V.V. Putin´s criminal aggression.
As I suggested earlier, Truss's refusal to be interviewed or give hints about her policies in her first speech was a deliberate plan to launch the ideas with a bang once she was in office. I don't see how she can fail to get a substantial bounce with today's papers - merely the sense that someone energetic has taken over in Number 10 should cheer people immensely. I don't see a problem with the photos, either.
The problems will come as inflation continues to rise - she can't plug everything with long-term debt without a real market crisis. But I do expect Opinium at least to give a Tory lead this month, before the party conferences move the agenda on.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
What utter rubbish. Boris got Brexit done, delivered the vaccines, supported people and businesses through lockdown and sent weapons and supplied to Ukraine before most world leaders and won the biggest Conservative election victory since Thatcher. Good leaving speech from him too.
Just since WW2 Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown and May were all worse PMs than Boris.
Boris had huge charisma and was a great leader. Unfortunately for the Tories their stupid decision to remove him means it is likely all downhill from here for them for a generation, as it was for them when they removed Thatcher in 1990 and as it was for Labour when Blair was pushed to go in 2007
One nice touch I thought was placement of Downing St staff in the front row for Boris/Carrie to bid farewell to with the politicians restricted to the end of the line up.
Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Boris let the inflation genie out of the bottle, we are in weak position compared to similar economies. The NHS is in a hell of a state. Social care reform was dropped. The Ukraine situation developed as London suckled on Russian money.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
Alternative history is a fun but fruitless project. Nonetheless, over recent months it's very hard to argue that Johnson was doing more than going through the motions, and in the last few weeks not even that.
The bottom line is that the Crimean war gave us ample warning to break our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons and finance. We didn’t. We’re running around trying to do that now. It’s a bit pathetic. The current crisis was avoidable if we weren’t distracted.
And Salisbury. Still can't quite believe that happened and we made no substantive attempt to curtail Russia.
Boris leaving Downing Street. The country is in a worse state than when he arrived.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
"Asleep at the wheel on key issues"
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
The cost of living crisis is a huge threat - directly linked to Ukraine and covid. Johnson has failed totally to engage with it, let alone deal with it.
Comments
She has a very difficult year or two ahead of her, and I hope she is up to the pressure. She’ll need a very strong private support network to get through this reasonably intact and healthy.
I identified her as a likely star early on, but I fear her timing is atrocious. She looks like a sacrificial lamb, and that awful speech made her sound like Larry the Lamb. Boris Johnson admired from Kiev to Carlisle? You could hear the tumbleweed. Fire that writer.
We all hope that her grasp of economics is significantly better that she displayed during the leadership hustings. If it is then she has a chance. A slim one but a chance. Expectations are so low that she doesn’t need to achieve much to exceed them.
On the Scottish question, my advice simply consists of 2 words: respect and friendship. Being the cynic I am, I confidently predict that she will comprehensively ignore my advice. No biggie.
@TheScreamingEagles gives Truss a year, Max.
Similar predictions from many other, reasonably sober pundits.
Lowest %age of the members vote, ever.
Not the MPs first pick.
Talk of her effective majority slashed to a dozen or less.
Her rigid ideology will not survive contact with reality.
Boris in the wings.
Etc etc.
I think this analysis is wrong. While I’m sure her enemies, and the media will talk up challenges, I’m pretty sure she’s safe until a GE. She has lots of cards to play (indeed, including calling a snap election to shut up her critics) and I simply don’t think there’s the appetite for another change of leader among MPs and members, so soon after Boris.
So, yeah, that’s a prediction from me:
The tories will not ditch Truss before the next election.
NOM 1.98 (1.96)
Lab Maj 3.75 (4.33)
Con Maj 3.85 (3.9)
(best prices 22 August in brackets)
I don’t think she is “ditching policies”. She is kite flying. Well, I hope she is kite flying, because if she isn’t then an awful lot of vulnerable people are about to have the worst winter of their lives. For many their final winter.
If the scenario is that the government is unpopular two years from now with an election looming, then the options are replacing Truss before the election, or replacing her immediately afterwards. There is no advantage for the party in delaying the inevitable, and very little for Truss herself because there is no chance she will remain Leader of the Opposition for five years to fight the election after next.
Liz Truss exit year:
2025 or later 2.86
2024 3
2023 5
2022 15.5
The value there is 2023. A snap GE is her only hope. If she kicks the can she’s a goner.
There are plenty of scenarios where Ms Truss does well, and plenty where she does poorly.
Like with most politicians, it's largely out of her hands.
There have already been strong misogynistic tendencies among critics of the Conservative Party, especially on social media. I would strongly recommend that people opposed to the Tories desist from focusing on the FM’s gender. Ditto the ethnicity of cabinet members. Just ignore it. It really, really isn’t relevant.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/russia-recruits-soldiers-from-mental-health-unit-to-make-up-troop-shortfall/ar-AA11uIyi?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f987e2957b4247248b59c9f8c15b1b5e
I happen to believe that individual specimens of H. s. sapiens do have agency. Especially heads of government.
There are vanishingly few scenarios where the hairless ape about to enter a terraced house in central London does well, and a mountain of scenarios where she does appallingly poorly. Where she ends up will partly be due to her own decisions and deeds.
And then there’s the structural elephant in the macroeconomic room: Brexit.
Add in strategic problems with the US and China and there is a strong case for economic pessimism. Could last a decade.
Even if one is wildly optimistic and Russia returns Crimea etc with a whimper and a sincere apology, it is not going to lead to instant Con poll leads.
You should follow your own advice when talking about the English, then.
May and Johnson started off with a far greater level of arse lickers on pb.com though they fell away as the various fiascos unwound.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1566909275125022720
Approximately 7.5 million people are eligible to vote. Turnout is always high, it was 87.1% last time.
I’m not surprised voting is slow this year: an awful lot of people are swithering about their “usual” parties. It took me ages to make my mind up, and I may still revise my vote.
On the other hand, research indicates that very few voters change their minds in the final week. Which spells catastrophe for the Moderates.
Sinn Féin 36% (nc)
Fine Gael 21% (-1)
Fianna Fáil 16% (-1)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 5% (+1)
Social Democrats 4% (nc)
Aontú 3% (nc)
Labour 3% (nc)
Greens 2% (-2)
others/independents 11% (+2)
(Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent)
In my "Russia defeated" scenario, the UK will be blessed with falling energy import costs, which feed through into higher disposable income, lower inflation and lower interest rates. People will start to feel better, and the government will have that much more room.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1566985519375998977?t=cZw2_t2cmv5LWB7TPhSTyw&s=19
She looks human.
Far more people are like Truss - 'strange and awkward', as you put it - than polished and 'normal'. Especially when in the glare of the media.
Boris about to deliver (7.30) his farewell speech and he and Truss fly to the Queen in Scotland to confirm the new PM in office
As I said yesterday I have reservations over Truss but at least this morning we know Patel, Dorries and Frost are history so that is at least very good news
It is also good that finally the HOC are in session and if they have any sense they will cancel the recess for conferences and get on running the country
I think though that energy usage can drop quite significantly without impacting life too much. We are far too extravagant with it at present, so prices will fall for that reason. Covid showed both business and domestic users are more flexible than many assumed.
2 years in this volatile economic environment may well see Labour win but I would caution Labour supporters not to take anything for granted
I am not convinced there is much electoral reward in it either, though pretty certainly less if she has to bring back the 3 day week.
I think we were pretty clear that we were expecting Hammond and Javid as Chancellor for May and Boris respectively, but I don’t believe the identity of the other ministers was well known.
Best of luck to Liz Truss, coming in at a terribly difficult time, and thanks to the outgoing PM Johnson for his service.
Here’s your intray prime minister. It smells a bit iffy. Your predecessor hasn’t touched it in months.
You may find that you have a fight on your hand if Truss does address voter concerns, as Starmer has not yet sealed it with the electorate not least with just a 29% approval rate
I expect Labour are worried at the prospect of a 2 year energy freeze from Truss
Where is this compliant Russian regime going to come from?
All Russian politicians seem to espouse various forms of nationalism, this includes Navalny.
How can a national humiliation on the battlefield lead to more compliance with the west?
If Russia gets 'beaten back' to its pre 2014 borders, it seems that they are unlikely to respond by doing a deal with the west, it seems more likely that they will look to doing a "deal" with China.
I think that the only way that the gas etc starts being pumped again, is through some kind of 'deal' with the current regime.
Obviously the flipside of such a 'deal' is that the current regime has time to rearm itself before round 3 of its war on Ukraine.
So I am very much unconvinced that the answer is in 'beating back' Russia.
The easiest way back to get the economy moving may be through some kind of poisonous unofficial stalemate much like what existed pre March of this year, Putin just declares some kind of victory and 'operation over'.
Douglas Henshall, one of the stars of Shetland, has apologised after using a derogatory term for Rangers supporters on social media.
The actor, 56, admitted it was “dumb and inflammatory” for him to call followers of the Ibrox club “Huns” in the wake of their 4-0 defeat by Celtic at Parkhead in Saturday’s Old Firm derby.
He wrote on Twitter: “It’s always a good day when the Huns get humped. Lol.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/douglas-henshall-sorry-for-inflammatory-tweet-about-rangers-fans-after-old-firm-loss-d0wj9pzfv
An accident at a Norwegian oil and gas field, unscheduled maintenance at one of the UK's nuclear plants, or a bitterly cold (and windless) winter could conspire to see shortages.
But I'd put my money on it surviving the winter.
The first 5 took 10 years (1953-1963)
The last 5 took 12 years (2010-2022)
The middle 5 took 37 years (1970-2007)
Bye Boris, that third ain't happening.
This is glorious.
The next five were Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair, so 27 years (not counting Wilson twice).
And Truss is the fourth PM since 2010, not the fifth, so it was 15 years since Brown.
What fool came up with that stat?
At some point, Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine comes to an end. Them buying ammunition from the North Koreans and raiding the asylums for soliders suggests that that might be nearer than we imagine.
What happens then?
Well, I would suggest that Putin is unlikely to survive defeat in Ukraine.
But changing the leader doesn't change the situation on the ground. They can be as nationalist as they like, but reality has to intervene.
If Putin falls, the next leader has to find some kind of peace with the West, because Russia depends on Western technology to extract the oil and gas that they sell to the World.
“Soon I’ll be passing the baton. It turned out to be a relay race - where they changed the rules half way through” ... not quite going quietly
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1567038103327580160
The sane way would be to try to rebuild relationships with the world that has them under sanctions: and that would probably involve withdrawal from Ukraine with some heft penalties. They have few realistic military options, given the way their military has performed.
For this reason, I'd expect a leftist or more centrist government to come out of this: one that, if nationalistic, wants desperately to rebuild relationships with other countries.
But I don't think Putin's going.
I feel for clinical staff though. The walls of the consulting room were plastered with advice, charts and checklists; surely too much for anyone to absorb.
Then onto my GP to hand in a test sample, only to be told it needed to be there before 10am. As with the hospital, a lot is set up for regular users and not explained for new ones.
The speech is positive and supportive of the new PM and her government.
It may well be the case that Russia can ultimately coexist with China (perhaps as a client state) more effectively than it can co-exist with the west.
China doesn't issue any demands about 'human rights' for instance.
Navalny was briefly stripped of his prisoner of conscence status by Amnesty International due to decades old homophobia.
The more the west goes in a 'woke' direction, the more it ultimately veers away from Russia.
It is possible however that this could change if Trump comes back in 2024.
1) The ECB will find a way to epically fuck up cricket
2) Johnson is still a lying, incoherent c***.
Asleep at the wheel on key issues, actively harmful on others, and chucked out by his party because he broke his own laws. Worse PM of my lifetime. Good riddance.
I didn't think even Johnson could be as inept as that.
We all make mistakes.
That's rubbish. He has faced two massive threats in two years: Covid and Ukraine - more strife than Blair faced in nearly ten years. On Ukraine Boris has been excellent: and on Covid middling (some parts, such as vaccines, he was very good).
Boris was not brought down by his decisions in government: until a little over a year ago he was riding high in the polls. He was brought down by personal decisions that highlighted some massive character flaws that had been obvious since his MoL days.
Without those flaws, the Conservatives would probably be showing healthy polling leads. And that's a danger for Labour.
Meanwhile Blair had 9/11, the dot com crash, a hot war in Europe and enabled peace in Northern Ireland.
He still thinks he was unfairly deposed.
China is not going to war (probably) but it can splash the cash. There has been recent movement of ex-Soviet Central Asian republics ("stan countries") closer to China's economic orbit while Putin's attention was on the EU tempting the Baltic states.
I'd argue Covid was the biggest unexpected issue any government has faced since WW2? Even the Falklands was not as big a threat, or have as big an impact.
It seems like Ukraine is basically a mercenary invasion, the soldiers are poor people enticed by high wages. There is no significant conscription or general mobilisation.
The fact that there are adverts in odd places is not really all that significant in the scheme of things. There are lots of 'anecdotes' and 'reports' but not too much weight should be put on them, in my opinion.
If the position is really bad, to the point where it is endangering his position, Putin can quit and declare victory at any point, as the situation stands.
Obviously, he was expecting a 2014 style cakewalk and this has not gone to plan. But Putin has adapted to the situation and is still really holding all the cards here as far as I can see.
I think that he is calculating that he can sow greater discord and chaos in the west (and across the world) by continuing the war, and this outweighs any domestic difficulties that may occur in consequence.
As an example of this, Putin has played a blinder with the gas prices thing, Zarah Sultana leading 'enough is enough' and Boris Johnson was telling them that it is all the price we have to pay for 'beating back' Putin,
Now Liz Truss comes along and says that the solution is in tax cuts for the rich.
I was speaking to some Estonians close to the military last night, and for the first time there was almost pity in their comments about Russia. Those who have contacts on the other side of the border describe the current military and political problems in Moscow as "close to terminal". The move to cut off the gas supply to Europe is seen as a mark of their utter desperation. The recruitment of mental patients, getting shells from North Korea etc also reflecting the break down of the Russian armed forces. It is thought that at least 20,000 Russian troops are now trapped on the right bank of the Dnipro and they are being caught in a mincing machine that is slowly, but inevitably leading to the breakdown of their cohesion.
Ramzan Kadyrov, the despicable Putinist leader of the the Chechens is a critical figure in the regime, and it has been Chechen shock troops who have been used to drive Russian units forward, with their reputation for disgusting brutality being a threat at least as much to their own side as to the Ukrainians. Therefore the announcement that Kadyrov will be "taking a long break" may be an early sign of growing uncertainty and instability at the centre. The regime has relied on balancing the forces of different groups: Army, FSB, Razgvardia and the Chechens. Any sense that the balance is shifting could indicate that the regime faces serious internal problems. "Watch this space", as they say.
One thing is for sure: Russian military problems are getting worse by the day. For the first time in months the Russians are trying to restart talks, to try to hold what they have before any further defeat alters the facts on the ground. Yet, as what is left of the harvest comes in and the leaves turn, the Ukrainians are in no mood to accept a diplomatic coup de main. Though the casualties in Ukraine are only now beginning to emerge (its now closing on a million civilians) the challenges for Putin are also growing, and no one, either in Ukraine or in any of the front line states has any interest in easing that position. As long as Liz Truss continues to support that view, there will be few issues that can complicate the good UK-front line relationship. As even the Germans come onside with significant weapons now being delivered, Putin may have made yet another miscalculation.
The quickest route to easing the cost of living crisis is the defeat of V.V. Putin´s criminal aggression.
The problems will come as inflation continues to rise - she can't plug everything with long-term debt without a real market crisis. But I do expect Opinium at least to give a Tory lead this month, before the party conferences move the agenda on.
Just since WW2 Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown and May were all worse PMs than Boris.
Boris had huge charisma and was a great leader. Unfortunately for the Tories their stupid decision to remove him means it is likely all downhill from here for them for a generation, as it was for them when they removed Thatcher in 1990 and as it was for Labour when Blair was pushed to go in 2007
Will Johnson fly from Northolt or Stansted? For some reason the A321 G-XATW is currently in Cairns…