Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

BoJo goes next week but what then? – politicalbetting.com

12357

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Ugh. I have a "macro" virus in my Word documents. Stopping me working!

    Anyone know what to do and how to eliminate the bastard? Windows Security cannot detect it let alone purge it

    Malwarebytes is pretty good. You don't have to use it all the time just download and run one off when you need. The free version is fine or was last time I used it.
    Yes, Malwarebytes is good.
    https://www.malwarebytes.com/ click the “Free Download” link on the left.

    Also, Trend Micro Housecall.
    https://www.trendmicro.com/en_ae/forHome/products/housecall.html
    +2 download Malwarebytes - let it run and then remove it...
    Unfortunately none of these can detect whatever-it-is that's infesting my laptop
    Can I make a gentle suggestion?

    Start using Google Docs to write, instead of Word.
    Given that the entire legal profession (including me) uses Word as standard for all intimated documents etc, whether they have a PC or a Mac, this is slightly alarming advice. Can you illucidate further or provide a link?
    People leaving track changes on when they send me their word documents has helped me so much in my career.
    Remember when the MoD redacted documents but people could still select the text in the pdf and paste it into Word to make it visible? Good times
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472
    edited September 1
    Driver said:

    TimS said:

    With Boris's energy speech today, and Truss's recent pronouncements, it really does feel as if we're being gaslighted into believing that it's not the Conservatives, but some other party (Labour?), that's had the power to make decisions, both short-term and long-term, over the last 12 years.

    It's stunning chutzpah, but I'm not convinced it will work out as well for the Tories as it did in 2019.

    I wouldn’t discount it. The approach has indeed worked well for them in the past, notably when Boris managed to win in 2019 on the basis of not being May (though Corbyn helped too).

    The opposition parties need to bang hone over and over that this is a tired Tory party in its 13th year of government. Emphasise the continuity not only with Boris and last last regime but with all the least popular ministers of the last decade.
    Yes - we've been putting out a very popular leaflet (with a cartoon which we commissioned from Marf, who used to grace this site) - theme is "Do you want ANOTHER 7 years of the Tories? If not, join Labour and let's stop it." Quite a lot of people really don't want to still have a Conservative government in 2029, no matter how much they shift the chairs around.
    A good, positive message you have there.
    Positive messages resonate more with at least some negative ones to contrast against. Push and pull.

    No one wants endless recriminatinatory bitching between parties, but I think we get a bit up ourselves about judging negative campaigning sometimes. It like when being accused of scaremongering - some things should scare people.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 644

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed


    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    I do wonder where this will go -If AI is capable of producing great art and literature then it surely will mass produce it (why not?) yet -isn't the main criteria of great art or writing is that it stands out or is rare ?
    You see it now in chess where AI is SO much better than the top players that nobody drools now over a great move by a grandmaster because it is just then fed into a machine and a machine comes up with a even better way of winning a game and everyone just sort of shrugs

    AI makes the extraordinary ordinary - which is fine for menial labour replacing stuff but not for art or literature or even chess
    It's not particularly good though. It would pass as a piece of artwork in a published D&D adventure, but it's hardly high art.

    Also artists being pissed is hardly news; in my London years the Sam Smiths pubs were full of 'em.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed


    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    I do wonder where this will go -If AI is capable of producing great art and literature then it surely will mass produce it (why not?) yet -isn't the main criteria of great art or writing is that it stands out or is rare ?
    You see it now in chess where AI is SO much better than the top players that nobody drools now over a great move by a grandmaster because it is just then fed into a machine and a machine comes up with a even better way of winning a game and everyone just sort of shrugs

    AI makes the extraordinary ordinary - which is fine for menial labour replacing stuff but not for art or literature or even chess
    Well, yes

    90% of future art and literature will be produced by machines, or machines in collaboration with humans

    There will always be a market for the rare artisanal human product, but it will be a market dimensions smaller than it is now

    Pretty grim for young artists/writers starting out now. Maybe quite grim for the human condition. But I don't know how it can be stopped. The genie is out of the lamp
    If that genie gave you the usual three wishes , would one of them be to stop it?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed


    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    I do wonder where this will go -If AI is capable of producing great art and literature then it surely will mass produce it (why not?) yet -isn't the main criteria of great art or writing is that it stands out or is rare ?
    You see it now in chess where AI is SO much better than the top players that nobody drools now over a great move by a grandmaster because it is just then fed into a machine and a machine comes up with a even better way of winning a game and everyone just sort of shrugs

    AI makes the extraordinary ordinary - which is fine for menial labour replacing stuff but not for art or literature or even chess
    It's not particularly good though. It would pass as a piece of artwork in a published D&D adventure, but it's hardly high art.

    Also artists being pissed is hardly news; in my London years the Sam Smiths pubs were full of 'em.
    What's 'high art'? Plenty of well regarded art may not be the most technically brilliant - truly talented artists on things like movies and games, producing works of astounding quality, wouldn't get a look in an arts competition I'd expect.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226
    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    TimS said:

    With Boris's energy speech today, and Truss's recent pronouncements, it really does feel as if we're being gaslighted into believing that it's not the Conservatives, but some other party (Labour?), that's had the power to make decisions, both short-term and long-term, over the last 12 years.

    It's stunning chutzpah, but I'm not convinced it will work out as well for the Tories as it did in 2019.

    I wouldn’t discount it. The approach has indeed worked well for them in the past, notably when Boris managed to win in 2019 on the basis of not being May (though Corbyn helped too).

    The opposition parties need to bang hone over and over that this is a tired Tory party in its 13th year of government. Emphasise the continuity not only with Boris and last last regime but with all the least popular ministers of the last decade.
    Yes - we've been putting out a very popular leaflet (with a cartoon which we commissioned from Marf, who used to grace this site) - theme is "Do you want ANOTHER 7 years of the Tories? If not, join Labour and let's stop it." Quite a lot of people really don't want to still have a Conservative government in 2029, no matter how much they shift the chairs around.
    A good, positive message you have there.
    Positive messages resonate more with at least some negative ones to contrast against. Push and pull.

    No one wants endless recriminatinatory bitching between parties, but I think we get a bit up ourselves about judging negative campaigning sometimes. It like when being accused of scaremongering - some things should scare people.
    Right, but all we seem to get is the negative campaigning...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    TimS said:

    With Boris's energy speech today, and Truss's recent pronouncements, it really does feel as if we're being gaslighted into believing that it's not the Conservatives, but some other party (Labour?), that's had the power to make decisions, both short-term and long-term, over the last 12 years.

    It's stunning chutzpah, but I'm not convinced it will work out as well for the Tories as it did in 2019.

    I wouldn’t discount it. The approach has indeed worked well for them in the past, notably when Boris managed to win in 2019 on the basis of not being May (though Corbyn helped too).

    The opposition parties need to bang hone over and over that this is a tired Tory party in its 13th year of government. Emphasise the continuity not only with Boris and last last regime but with all the least popular ministers of the last decade.
    Yes - we've been putting out a very popular leaflet (with a cartoon which we commissioned from Marf, who used to grace this site) - theme is "Do you want ANOTHER 7 years of the Tories? If not, join Labour and let's stop it." Quite a lot of people really don't want to still have a Conservative government in 2029, no matter how much they shift the chairs around.
    A good, positive message you have there.
    Positive messages resonate more with at least some negative ones to contrast against. Push and pull.

    No one wants endless recriminatinatory bitching between parties, but I think we get a bit up ourselves about judging negative campaigning sometimes. It like when being accused of scaremongering - some things should scare people.
    I really don't see this particular message setting the Thames on fire though, and it's a bit cack handed to suggest that anyone can affect the first two of those SEVEN years anyway.

    What impressed me most about cassetteboy's 2017 anti May videos was that they ended with the one word VOTE. Not vote X or Y, just VOTE. If I were Labour I'd be concentrating on getting that one word across to da youf. Delightfully they could even dress it up as a cross party initiative, because tories have to pretend to believe that the more voting across all age groups the healthier for democracy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    This article in the Spectator at least tries to achieve some sort of understanding about Truss economics; so is useful.

    Summary: cut tax, borrow more at higher interest rates, do loads of what we attacked Labour for doing. Looks disastrous.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trussonomics-a-beginners-guide
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,878
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed


    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    I do wonder where this will go -If AI is capable of producing great art and literature then it surely will mass produce it (why not?) yet -isn't the main criteria of great art or writing is that it stands out or is rare ?
    You see it now in chess where AI is SO much better than the top players that nobody drools now over a great move by a grandmaster because it is just then fed into a machine and a machine comes up with a even better way of winning a game and everyone just sort of shrugs

    AI makes the extraordinary ordinary - which is fine for menial labour replacing stuff but not for art or literature or even chess
    It's not particularly good though. It would pass as a piece of artwork in a published D&D adventure, but it's hardly high art.

    Also artists being pissed is hardly news; in my London years the Sam Smiths pubs were full of 'em.

    To me it looks generic, good but unamazing digital art. But it was fine enough to win the trophy

    Check out the various tweet threads, Reddit forums, 4chan chats, you name it, dedicated to best art now coming out of AI. Some of it is extraordinarily good
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472
    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    TimS said:

    With Boris's energy speech today, and Truss's recent pronouncements, it really does feel as if we're being gaslighted into believing that it's not the Conservatives, but some other party (Labour?), that's had the power to make decisions, both short-term and long-term, over the last 12 years.

    It's stunning chutzpah, but I'm not convinced it will work out as well for the Tories as it did in 2019.

    I wouldn’t discount it. The approach has indeed worked well for them in the past, notably when Boris managed to win in 2019 on the basis of not being May (though Corbyn helped too).

    The opposition parties need to bang hone over and over that this is a tired Tory party in its 13th year of government. Emphasise the continuity not only with Boris and last last regime but with all the least popular ministers of the last decade.
    Yes - we've been putting out a very popular leaflet (with a cartoon which we commissioned from Marf, who used to grace this site) - theme is "Do you want ANOTHER 7 years of the Tories? If not, join Labour and let's stop it." Quite a lot of people really don't want to still have a Conservative government in 2029, no matter how much they shift the chairs around.
    A good, positive message you have there.
    Positive messages resonate more with at least some negative ones to contrast against. Push and pull.

    No one wants endless recriminatinatory bitching between parties, but I think we get a bit up ourselves about judging negative campaigning sometimes. It like when being accused of scaremongering - some things should scare people.
    Right, but all we seem to get is the negative campaigning...
    We get what we deserve - if it didn't work, if we didn't want it, they'd be more positive.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 644
    kle4 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed


    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    I do wonder where this will go -If AI is capable of producing great art and literature then it surely will mass produce it (why not?) yet -isn't the main criteria of great art or writing is that it stands out or is rare ?
    You see it now in chess where AI is SO much better than the top players that nobody drools now over a great move by a grandmaster because it is just then fed into a machine and a machine comes up with a even better way of winning a game and everyone just sort of shrugs

    AI makes the extraordinary ordinary - which is fine for menial labour replacing stuff but not for art or literature or even chess
    It's not particularly good though. It would pass as a piece of artwork in a published D&D adventure, but it's hardly high art.

    Also artists being pissed is hardly news; in my London years the Sam Smiths pubs were full of 'em.
    What's 'high art'? Plenty of well regarded art may not be the most technically brilliant - truly talented artists on things like movies and games, producing works of astounding quality, wouldn't get a look in an arts competition I'd expect.
    I guess it's creating something which transcends its medium and face value. It's hard to quantify what makes a Titian or Rembrandt better than their hundreds of technically proficient imitators - but like the old definition of pornography, you know it when you see it.

    Agree that talented artists in digital media should get more credit though.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,992
    edited September 1

    @dwnews
    Germany's invasion and occupation of Poland during World War II caused losses amounting to €1.32 trillion, a Polish parliamentary committee determined.

    The head of Poland's ruling party says it would officially demand reparations.


    https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1565334528570294272

    What's the equivalent figure for the Russian occupation?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.
    Not ranked choice, but what was amusing was the Georgia election where one candidate got 49.7% to 47.9%, but they require an actual majority, and he still lost the runoff, going down to 49.4%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    He's either utterly desperate, or completely off his rocker, or both.

    In a new interview, Trump says he believes DOJ was really looking for Russiagate material and Hillary Clinton emails during the search.
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1565357420108455938
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,451
    edited September 1
    In the 16:56 race at Salisbury, Conservative came 9th out of 9.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472
    edited September 1
    Nigelb said:

    He's either utterly desperate, or completely off his rocker, or both.

    In a new interview, Trump says he believes DOJ was really looking for Russiagate material and Hillary Clinton emails during the search.
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1565357420108455938

    I think one of his general tactics is to throw a million different theories and thoughts out there, purely to confuse. It would explain why some of his defences (and those of his worshippers) of things are contradictory.

    It seems to work.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    First new US memory chip fab in two decades.
    Biden's Chips Act bearing fruit.

    Micron to Invest $15 Billion in New Idaho Fab, Bringing Leading-Edge Memory Manufacturing to the US
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-invest-15-billion-idaho-130000031.html
  • algarkirk said:

    This article in the Spectator at least tries to achieve some sort of understanding about Truss economics; so is useful.

    Summary: cut tax, borrow more at higher interest rates, do loads of what we attacked Labour for doing. Looks disastrous.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trussonomics-a-beginners-guide

    Pretty much. After all, if running an economy was that easy, everyone would do it that way. The harder questions are 1. whether Trussonomics can create enough temporary feelgood to win an election and 2. will a victory bought that way be worth the hangover?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472

    @dwnews
    Germany's invasion and occupation of Poland during World War II caused losses amounting to €1.32 trillion, a Polish parliamentary committee determined.

    The head of Poland's ruling party says it would officially demand reparations.


    https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1565334528570294272

    Time and place, Poland.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,878
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 1
    Trump has demanded $1.32 trillion in reparations for an invasion that happened 80 years ago, and the Polish government is demanding that the German government hand over the Hillary emails that were a feature of the USPE before last? Am I keeping up? What insane times we live in.
  • DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even as a kid I suspected they might be dangerous subversives.

    The Monkees’ last-living member sues FBI for secret files on the band
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/08/31/monkees-lawsuit-fbi/

    Their TV series was clearly designed to reduce the average IQ of the watcher and make moronic behaviour seem normal.
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even as a kid I suspected they might be dangerous subversives.

    The Monkees’ last-living member sues FBI for secret files on the band
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/08/31/monkees-lawsuit-fbi/

    Their TV series was clearly designed to reduce the average IQ of the watcher and make moronic behaviour seem normal.
    It was a kids' show - I know I was a kid at the time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even as a kid I suspected they might be dangerous subversives.

    The Monkees’ last-living member sues FBI for secret files on the band
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/08/31/monkees-lawsuit-fbi/

    Their TV series was clearly designed to reduce the average IQ of the watcher and make moronic behaviour seem normal.
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even as a kid I suspected they might be dangerous subversives.

    The Monkees’ last-living member sues FBI for secret files on the band
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/08/31/monkees-lawsuit-fbi/

    Their TV series was clearly designed to reduce the average IQ of the watcher and make moronic behaviour seem normal.
    It was a kids' show - I know I was a kid at the time.
    Oh? Did it have a permanent effect?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    .
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    It wasn't the end of art.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 892
    More evidence for the theory that mixed-race candidates have an advantage in the US: "Peltola, who turned 49 on Wednesday, is the daughter of a Yup’ik mother and a father from Nebraska, who started in Alaska as a teacher in the village of Fort Yukon. There, he worked with Young, who also was a teacher before he ran for Congress. Peltola’s family was close with Young’s, and her father flew Young on campaign stops when he was first seeking statewide office; her mother also campaigned for Young while she was pregnant with Peltola, speaking in the Yup’ik language."
    source:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/31/alaska-palin-peltola-house/

    And marital coalitions, as the example of her predecessor, Don Young, shows: "In 1963 Young married Lula Fredson, who worked as a bookkeeper in Fort Yukon.[4] She was a Gwich'in and the youngest child of early-20th-century Gwich'in leader John Fredson. She volunteered her time serving as the manager of Young's Washington, D.C. congressional office. They had two daughters and were members of the Episcopal Church. Lula died on August 1, 2009, at age 67."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,878
    Stable Diffusion creates fine photo-art - easily good enough to be exhibited at Frieze London - in 10 seconds. I just did one

    So those guys are done. Why on earth would you pay $20k for digital art when people can make it at home for a penny?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    edited September 1
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    He's either utterly desperate, or completely off his rocker, or both.

    In a new interview, Trump says he believes DOJ was really looking for Russiagate material and Hillary Clinton emails during the search.
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1565357420108455938

    I think one of his general tactics is to throw a million different theories and thoughts out there, purely to confuse. It would explain why some of his defences (and those of his worshippers) of things are contradictory.

    It seems to work.
    Until now.

    His problem is twofold.

    The evidence in this case is obvious to the simplest voter, and damning.
    And no proof of intent is required to secure a criminal conviction.

    While the authorities have said they will hold off until after the November elections (not the best decision, IMO, but whatever), it is going to be very difficult indeed for them not to prosecute.
    The principle of equality before the law is so clearly at stake, and the offence so egregious (not least putting US human intelligence assets' lives at risk), that it will happen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Might well have looked different given that it was probably photographed first to guide the bombers, by Aufklärungsstaffel 88 of the Condor Legion.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 644
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Will AI ever make a Breaking Bad or Twin Peaks, I wonder?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Might well have looked different given that it was probably photographed first to guide the bombers, by Aufklärungsstaffel 88 of the Condor Legion.
    I was going to say, without photography Guernica would have looked more like Guernica.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Leon said:

    Stable Diffusion creates fine photo-art - easily good enough to be exhibited at Frieze London - in 10 seconds. I just did one

    So those guys are done. Why on earth would you pay $20k for digital art when people can make it at home for a penny?

    So they can sell it for $15k and have laundered the money.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    edited September 1
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Will AI ever make a Breaking Bad or Twin Peaks, I wonder?
    Or write polished pieces for Upmarket Travel about drinking wine in some chalet in the Ruritanian Alps while cats copulate under the table and bears defecate in the woods all around.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

    What's a false premise ?
    This was the actual choice of the voters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    He's either utterly desperate, or completely off his rocker, or both.

    In a new interview, Trump says he believes DOJ was really looking for Russiagate material and Hillary Clinton emails during the search.
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1565357420108455938

    I think one of his general tactics is to throw a million different theories and thoughts out there, purely to confuse. It would explain why some of his defences (and those of his worshippers) of things are contradictory.

    It seems to work.
    Until now.

    His problem is twofold.

    The evidence in this case is obvious to the simplest voter, and damning.
    And no proof of intent is required to secure a criminal conviction.

    While the authorities have said they will hold off until after the November elections (not the best decision, IMO, but whatever), it is going to be very difficult indeed for them not to prosecute.
    The principle of equality before the law is so clearly at stake, and the offence so egregious (not least putting US human intelligence assets' lives at risk), that it will happen.
    I hope so. I get very worried when people (not even Trump fans) argue that criminality (if it has occurred) should not be pursued on the basis of needing to settle things with elections, that going after him empowers him or his side by feeding his narrative. Since when has that ever been true? Those standing or considering standing for election are still expected to uphold other laws, they shouldn't get a pass because they will be vocally angry and their supporters exercised if they are convicted.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Will AI ever make a Breaking Bad or Twin Peaks, I wonder?
    Or write polished pieces for Upmarket Travel about drinking wine in some chalet in the Ruritanian Alps while cats copulate under the table and bears defecate in the woods all around.
    Or, more interestingly, will they write about bears defecating under the table and lots of pussies copulating in the woods around?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 892
    In 2008, Noemie Emery made what I consider a wise observation: She said Obama and Palin were both promising politicians -- but that neither was ready for the job they running for. I think their subsequent careers shows she was right. Although she did little damage, other than to herself, and her family, unlike Obama.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    Nigelb said:

    He's either utterly desperate, or completely off his rocker, or both.

    In a new interview, Trump says he believes DOJ was really looking for Russiagate material and Hillary Clinton emails during the search.
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1565357420108455938

    I read an interesting article a couple of years ago about Trump: basically he listens to his audience (whether on Twitter or at a rally). When he gets cheers, he delivers more of the material that gives cheers... when he gets likes and reshares, he doubles down on the message.

    It's almost like a real-time feedback loop.

    The issue is, of course (and ignoring the fact that is a terrible way to govern), that this means that his followers end up a very homogenous bunch. Tens of millions of people who all react in the same way to the same things. They get riled up, and Trump truly is their mouthpiece.

    But it repels as many people as it attracts. So long as Trump faces someone with as many negatives as him (say Ms Clinton), then he does OK because he gets her antis, and his pros. Against someone without the negatives, it's much harder.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Will AI ever make a Breaking Bad or Twin Peaks, I wonder?
    Or write polished pieces for Upmarket Travel about drinking wine in some chalet in the Ruritanian Alps while cats copulate under the table and bears defecate in the woods all around.
    Or, more interestingly, will they write about bears defecating under the table and lots of pussies copulating in the woods around?
    Not much room under the table, unless they are water bears. Or Teddy bears.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 892
    Correction: shows Emery was right and Palin did little damage
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,878
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Will AI ever make a Breaking Bad or Twin Peaks, I wonder?
    Yes, is my guess. The Stable Diffusion guys say they are rolling out video versions shortly. Tho others are asking How, as this is orders of magnitude harder than still images, it seems

    But in the end the AI will surely get there. Unless someone pulls the plug on the whole thing, as a dangerous experiment
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

    I'm struggling to understand your point here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472
    Leon said:

    Stable Diffusion creates fine photo-art - easily good enough to be exhibited at Frieze London - in 10 seconds. I just did one

    So those guys are done. Why on earth would you pay $20k for digital art when people can make it at home for a penny?

    People already pay absurd amounts for artwork based on who created it, rather than any aesthetic quality. I guess it just means only a rare few will be the lucky ones who can market such (or whoever owns their stuff when they are dead will).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    edited September 1
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    MISTY said:

    Sean_F said:

    MISTY said:

    Sean_F said:

    MISTY said:

    Judging by the comments on here, the site is going very long of the Democrats ahead of November. Interesting.

    Biden's approval rating is still well underwater, even if the parties are tied on the generic ballot. The only occasions when the party in power has gained seats in the House, in mid term, 1998 and 2002, is when Clinton and Bush had very positive opinion ratings.

    Roe v Wade may make a difference, but it won't be that much of a difference.
    Yes.

    Its just I remember a similar sort of enthusiasm on here in the run up to 2020, with the dems tipped to sweep Ohio, Iowa, Florida, NC, Texas etc, and mulling potential money making opportunities!
    The way to look at it is this, IMHO.

    In 2020, the Democrats had a 4% lead in the Presidential election and a 2.5% lead in the House. That gave a tiny majority in the House.

    Even if the 2020 result is exactly the same, the Democrats will probably lose the House due to boundary changes.

    But, nothing in recent polling suggests the Democrats will enjoy such a lead in overall vote share. In overall terms, a tie is probably the best they can hope for. So, the dial is already shifted 2.5 to 4% for the Republicans, compared to 2020. States like Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona were very tight in 2020, so one has to assume they'll be very tight this time around. The general environment is a bit better for the Republicans, but poor candidate selection works against them.

    Red States that were not in play in 2018, are certainly not going to be in play, this time around.
    V good summary and I agree.
    Maybe this is less fun, but I do have a tendency to rely on 538 and their model for the likely outcome.

    They are much more in favour of the Dems keeping the senate than other outlets (I know politico have the senate lean GOP still), but they seem to think the House is clearly likely to end up under GOP control. They were less bullish on the GOP earlier in the year, but the maps that have made it to election day are more GOP friendly than they looked like they might be back in the spring - partly because Dem controlled states had courts / oversight panels reduce the Democratic gerrymander, whilst GOP controlled states were backed up at every turn by their courts and even SCOTUS.
    Having said that, the post Dobbs outlook is more positive for Dems, and if the generic ballot moves further, Dems could still win.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-alaska-tells-us-about-november/
    In Michigan the two GOP memebers of the board of Canvassers prevented a ballot initiative to Protect Abortion Rights going to the voters in November. Which I imagine they thought (given what happened in Kansas) they were very clever in doing so.

    However in my view this is a huge mistake by the GOp because it now turns every state house seat, the govenorship and the elections to the Supreme Court into a referendum on abortion.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Will AI ever make a Breaking Bad or Twin Peaks, I wonder?
    Yes, is my guess. The Stable Diffusion guys say they are rolling out video versions shortly. Tho others are asking How, as this is orders of magnitude harder than still images, it seems

    But in the end the AI will surely get there. Unless someone pulls the plug on the whole thing, as a dangerous experiment
    I remember hearing from a very bright analyst the view that nVidia, Intel an d ARM are all dead in the long-term, because there's no need for more computing power.

    Well, I think we've just discovered that's not true.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457

    algarkirk said:

    This article in the Spectator at least tries to achieve some sort of understanding about Truss economics; so is useful.

    Summary: cut tax, borrow more at higher interest rates, do loads of what we attacked Labour for doing. Looks disastrous.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trussonomics-a-beginners-guide

    Pretty much. After all, if running an economy was that easy, everyone would do it that way. The harder questions are 1. whether Trussonomics can create enough temporary feelgood to win an election and 2. will a victory bought that way be worth the hangover?
    There seems a remarkably breezy insouciance about how the markets would react, too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Will AI ever make a Breaking Bad or Twin Peaks, I wonder?
    Or write polished pieces for Upmarket Travel about drinking wine in some chalet in the Ruritanian Alps while cats copulate under the table and bears defecate in the woods all around.
    Or, more interestingly, will they write about bears defecating under the table and lots of pussies copulating in the woods around?
    Not much room under the table, unless they are water bears. Or Teddy bears.
    Or Russian bears, which are much smaller and weaker than we realised.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    @MISTY - the US Presidency changes hands pretty reliably every two electoral cycles, almost irrespective of who the Presidential nominees are.

    So, I'm not sure that claiming that "it's because they were moderate/conservatives/etc." holds that much weight.

    Romney would - I suspect - have walked it against Hillary in 2016. And I think you are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think Trump would not have been obliterated if he'd stood against Obama in 2012.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,205
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Will AI ever make a Breaking Bad or Twin Peaks, I wonder?
    Yes, is my guess. The Stable Diffusion guys say they are rolling out video versions shortly. Tho others are asking How, as this is orders of magnitude harder than still images, it seems

    But in the end the AI will surely get there. Unless someone pulls the plug on the whole thing, as a dangerous experiment
    I remember hearing from a very bright analyst the view that nVidia, Intel an d ARM are all dead in the long-term, because there's no need for more computing power.

    Well, I think we've just discovered that's not true.
    People have been selling “we have all the computing power we will ever need” since I can remember. That’s several decades…
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    Nigelb said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

    What's a false premise ?
    This was the actual choice of the voters.
    If the voters agree with your existing preconceptions, then you are vindicated; and if they disagree, then there is electoral fraud.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,878
    Stable Diffusion is weirdly obsessed with nipples
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    edited September 1
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of predictions, 538 has been pretty good historically.

    If you look at the 2020 Senate elections, they only called three races wrong: Maine and North Carolina, which stayed Republican; and Georgia, which the Democrats flipped.

    If we look at their individual Senate forecasts now, and assume they call it wrong by one in the Dems favour, then you end up at 50:50.

    FWIW, I think a small bet on the Republicans on Betfair is now worth a punt: I'm thinking the Republicans grab Nevada and Georgia, but lose Pennsylvania and fall short in Arizona.

    Republicans take Nevada is the dog that never sounded its forghorn in the night for over a decade since Harry Reid was 100% guaranteed to lose fact in 2010.

    I haven't looked at it this time but I've grown tired of losing money on the GOP doing well in the state.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

    No chance of that happening anytime soon. Though I am sure McCain would have won in 2000 and likely the popular vote too and Kasich would have beaten Hillary in 2016.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited September 1
    rcs1000 said:

    @MISTY - the US Presidency changes hands pretty reliably every two electoral cycles, almost irrespective of who the Presidential nominees are.

    So, I'm not sure that claiming that "it's because they were moderate/conservatives/etc." holds that much weight.

    Romney would - I suspect - have walked it against Hillary in 2016. And I think you are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think Trump would not have been obliterated if he'd stood against Obama in 2012.

    That absolutely fair, but following your logic claiming 'its because they were Trumpist etc.' maybe doesn't hold that much weight either.

    That's what McConnell tried to claim, though, isn't it, and its why so many Trumpists want to see him ousted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Me likey. The untidy red deletion of the c-bomb is my work. Don’t want the ban hammer.

    And like all the famous bands, he'll be back on tour again within two years.
    Just reprising the old hits for cash, too.
    Trouble for the Conservatives is that their fanbase is increasingly elderly and relying on nostalgia as the elixir of lost youth as well.
    We used to joke that Bozo would be the end of the Tory party - given the forthcoming crisis I really believe the Tory party will be doomed unless Truss comes up with a decent plan next week...
    Ever since I've taken an interest in politics, I've heard repeated predictions of the end of the Conservative or Labour parties. It never happens.
    There's a second time for everything, though. And the Conservatives have set themselves a stinker of a problem to solve demographically.

    It's always been the case that people get more right-wing on average as they get older. But since about 2016, the effect has become huge. Really huge.

    I like this set of graphs because it explains so much, but I hate it because I wish it weren't this way;




    The Conservatives really need to do something to appeal to people who haven't made a pile by buying a house cheaply a couple of decades ago. At the moment, they don't seem to be even trying.
    Not too much though, on that graph Blair and New Labour even won over 65s in 1997 as well as every other age group in the Tories worst defeat since 1832
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    Leon said:

    Stable Diffusion is weirdly obsessed with nipples

    Maybe you should remove the word "breasts" from every prompt?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    rcs1000 said:

    @MISTY - the US Presidency changes hands pretty reliably every two electoral cycles, almost irrespective of who the Presidential nominees are.

    So, I'm not sure that claiming that "it's because they were moderate/conservatives/etc." holds that much weight.

    Romney would - I suspect - have walked it against Hillary in 2016. And I think you are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think Trump would not have been obliterated if he'd stood against Obama in 2012.

    It was pretty clear that Obama was goading Trump to run in 2012. I wonder how close he was to doing so.

    As for the hypothetocal Romney vs Clinton match up... given Romeny's empirically better connection with the rust belt than Trump (more votes than Trump in Wisconsin) he would have smashed Clinton into a record defeat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,878
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Stable Diffusion is weirdly obsessed with nipples

    Maybe you should remove the word "breasts" from every prompt?
    lol

    Am I allowed to post a couple of images? They are not porno, nor violent, nor scary. I just wanna show how you can create acceptable photo art in seconds
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,458
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of predictions, 538 has been pretty good historically.

    If you look at the 2020 Senate elections, they only called three races wrong: Maine and North Carolina, which stayed Republican; and Georgia, which the Democrats flipped.

    If we look at their individual Senate forecasts now, and assume they call it wrong by one in the Dems favour, then you end up at 50:50.

    FWIW, I think a small bet on the Republicans on Betfair is now worth a punt: I'm thinking the Republicans grab Nevada and Georgia, but lose Pennsylvania and fall short in Arizona.

    Republicans take Nevada is the dog that never sounded its forghorn in the night for over a decade since Harry Reid was 100% guaranteed to lose fact in 2010.

    I haven't looked at it this time but I've grown tired of losing money on the GOP doing well in the state.
    I grant you, I have called Nevada for the Republicans several times more than they have actually won it.

    And I also grant you that Nevada voted 2:1 for legal abortion in a referendum about fifteen years ago, and that Laxalit is about as extreme on the anti-abortion side as you can get.

    I will also admit that the only poll showing Laxalit ahead is from Trafalgar, and Suffolk (who is pretty reliable) has Cortez Mastro up six points.

    Nevertheless: I do think Nevada is vulnerable to the Dems. And if I lose money on it, so be it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Also, I think backing Herschel Walker is a, er, brave move.
  • Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.
    Pungent PB pundit alert - Note that in Alaska's very special US House election, just over 20% of voters who gave Begich their 1st preference did NOT give a 2nd preference for either Palin or Peltola.

    Of those who voted in first round for EITHER of the two GOPers, Begich and Palin, note that 76% voted for Palin in the 2nd round (including 50% of Begich voters) compared with 14% who voted for Democrat Peltola (29% of Begich voters) while 10% did NOT give a 2nd-round vote (21% of Begich voters).

    Bottom line is still that Palin lost to Peltola by -2.9% in the final, decisive count.

    HOWEVER, she and the other three will again be on the November ballot for the REGULAR two-year US House term, where turnout can be expected to be higher.

    Whether Sarah Palin's vote ceiling will be higher is another story. For THAT was clearly a factor in her special election loss, along with repeal of Roe v Wade and the ongoing saga of the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo.

    Which, as we enter upon the Labor Day weekend across the USA, appears to be Trumping (pun intended) the sins of Joe Biden AND the Great GOP War on Woke.

  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 892
    Misty said: "Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway."

    Here's a list of secretaries of state of Washington: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_of_State_of_Washington
    Note that Republicans -- and I can tell you all were moderates -- won every election, beginning in 1964. Even while the state was becoming more Democratic. (Wyman resigned.)

    Romney has won more elections than he has lost, including one in a state that is not particularly Republican. McCain was not a moderate on foreign policy. (I suppose there are a few carrier pilots who are moderates on foreign policy, but I don't know of any.)
  • On topic, I think the odds on him bowing out as an MP before the General Election are very attractive.

    He's still got a standards & privileges investigation and the mood music from "friends of the PM" is he's not sure the Tory majority on that makes him safe as some of them hate his guts. At best, that's all rather painful, and at worst he's suspended and in recall territory. Him no longer being an MP doesn't totally end that, but the whole thing becomes rather moot.

    My view is also that, rather than being a steady income with minimal duties, continuing as an MP impedes his earning potential rather than adding to it, whilst carrying some risk of embarrassment. Even though there's a decent Tory majority, he will actually have to vote sometimes when he'd rather be giving a speech in Denver or whatever for serious money (and I'd not be shocked if Labour dicked him about on pairing for sh1ts and giggles), there are transparency obligations regarding income with the position, and he's open to "absentee landlord" stories. A lot of faff for chickenfeed.

    In terms of a comeback, he's come back to the Commons before having been out and there is barely a safe Tory seat in the country that wouldn't select him to fill a vacancy. I know people put about the idea of a quick comeback as a grateful nation demands his return after five minutes of Truss. But it's away with the fairies stuff - he needs Truss to lose an election AND the next leader to fail to make headway to be back in the game. Uxbridge also isn't a great seat - Labour need a 7.5% swing which, if Truss loses the General Election is very much in the vulnerable range. Better to bow out than lose - give it five years and see how the world looks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

    No chance of that happening anytime soon. Though I am sure McCain would have won in 2000 and likely the popular vote too and Kasich would have beaten Hillary in 2016.
    Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,849
    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It would appear that using the word lazy to describe BoZo is in fact, lazy.

    I think it's more akin to ADHD. He is clearly willing to put some hours in, but only on things he wants to do to avoid things he should be doing.

    As Leon noted he used to write articles, which I am sure he would argue is not easy.

    But they were frequently late, and entirely made up.

    The question therefore is whether it is easier to write a fictional article (perhaps many times) than to do the research and write an accurate one.

    BoZo chose the former path. Some would call that lazy...

    My problem isn't with Johnson but with the system that indulged him. Why didn't the Telegraph think its readers deserved to read well researched, accurate articles? Why didn't the Telegraph's readers demand them? That is where the real laziness lies. That is evidence of a decadent society in decline.
    He's a columnist, and has been for many years. These are opinions, not factual investigations

    If you mean his European work for the Telegraph that was decades ago, so our decline has been in train since about 1990? Also, he didn't persistently lie, he often told the truth, which annoyed europhiles. And when he did lie - as a very young hack - he got the sack from the Times

    Again, I do not see this as evidence for a 40 year moral decline
    He persistently lied and made up stories when he was Brussels correspondent - read the Purnell biography which is based on first hand evidence for that period for examples.
    Even a columnist should base their writings on evidence not simply bluster. Compare a Johnson article with one by, eg, Martin Wolf (other than on Brexit probably not a million miles from Johnson ideologically speaking). It's not serious writing and it's not designed for people who want to understand a complex world, but would rather retreat into their own ideological comfort zone. (There are plenty of writers like this on the Left too, and they can be even worse - at least Johnson can be funny).
    You don't understand what a columnist like Boris is employed to do. That's obvious by your silly comparison with Martin Wolf.

    Wolf writes quite serious, often quite dull articles about economics, they tend to be filled with facts because they have to be, he's not funny or poetic nor is he attempting this. Boris was in the Telegraph to entertain and amuse and attract readers with vivid opinions about all kinds of things

    Boris must have done it well because he earned £300k a year. The Telegraph does not shell out that kind of cash for lolz
    I understand fully that there is demand for the kind of stuff Johnson writes. My contention is that this is a sad reflection on the people who read it, who can't differentiate between a joke and an argument and treat Johnson's views like they should be taken seriously.
    There is of course a place for genuine comic writing, but if you hold up Johnson's pieces against those of writers who excel in this field, they just aren't that good. Even being funny takes more effort than Johnson was willing to put in.
    I agree with some of this. Johnson is a pretty good writer, but not outstanding - tho he does have flashes of brilliance

    However this isn't really my point. The Telegraph - like any big paper - has finely tuned antennae enabling them to sense what writers are popular, and attract readers. This is easily done in the age of the internet. Page views etc

    This is why papers poach star writers, because one popular writer can attract 50,000 readers, so they will justify the money paid to them. This is why the Telegraph gave Bozza £300k a year. Popularity

    You can bemoan the fact that Boris is a popular journalist as some dread sign of moral collapse but I submit that's absurd. Newspapers have been employing colourful, popular columnists for 100 years
    He's the first one to have become PM though. That does point to a relatively recent loss of seriousness in our society.
    £300k isn't that much money. Perhaps it's a lot in the newspaper business, I don't know.
    £300,000 is chicken feed.
    It's a huge amount of money by most standards. But the newspaper business must not be hugely profitable if that's the salary of its absolute stars, when sectors like tech, finance or consulting are chock full of quite average people earning well north of that. Perhaps they are less fun and offer fewer side benefits.
    It was a quote.

    The mayor of London, Boris Johnson, today faced calls to apologise for his "out of touch" comment that his £250,000 earnings for writing a weekly Telegraph column were "chicken feed".
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/jul/14/boris-johnson-telegraph-chicken-feed
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g
  • HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Me likey. The untidy red deletion of the c-bomb is my work. Don’t want the ban hammer.

    And like all the famous bands, he'll be back on tour again within two years.
    Just reprising the old hits for cash, too.
    Trouble for the Conservatives is that their fanbase is increasingly elderly and relying on nostalgia as the elixir of lost youth as well.
    We used to joke that Bozo would be the end of the Tory party - given the forthcoming crisis I really believe the Tory party will be doomed unless Truss comes up with a decent plan next week...
    Ever since I've taken an interest in politics, I've heard repeated predictions of the end of the Conservative or Labour parties. It never happens.
    There's a second time for everything, though. And the Conservatives have set themselves a stinker of a problem to solve demographically.

    It's always been the case that people get more right-wing on average as they get older. But since about 2016, the effect has become huge. Really huge.

    I like this set of graphs because it explains so much, but I hate it because I wish it weren't this way;




    The Conservatives really need to do something to appeal to people who haven't made a pile by buying a house cheaply a couple of decades ago. At the moment, they don't seem to be even trying.
    Not too much though, on that graph Blair and New Labour even won over 65s in 1997 as well as every other age group in the Tories worst defeat since 1832
    That's not the point I'm making though.

    Up to 2015, there's a fairly gentle gradient on the lines- the Conservative share goes up by 10 to 15 percentage points from school leavers to coffin dodgers. The line bobbed up and down from one election to the next, but the Conservatives were competitive with young voters and Labour were competitive with old voters.

    Between 2015 and 2017, something changed. Now the profile is about a 50 percentage point change over the lifespan of man. We know about the Conservative success at picking up older Red Wall voters, but it's already come at the expense of repelling younger voters.

    That's new, and it means that the Conservatives will have to run awfully fast to keep ahead of the Grim Reaper. They have a good record of reinvention, but it ain't going to be easy.
  • Interesting from tonight's Redfield Wilton

    Truss herself was more unknown than known to the public at the start of the leadership contest. While the public has no doubt heard much from her in the last few weeks, they are still yet to see her in action and to see the results of her proposed policies, providing an opening to create a strong first impression.

    Above all, the public has yet to warm up to her opponent, Leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer. While Labour has led in every single one of our Westminster voting intention polls this year, with our latest poll finding Labour ahead by 11%, approaching the largest lead we have recorded for them, Starmer himself has not once had a solidly positive net approval rating. His three most recent net approval ratings have been: -5%, -6%, and -5%.

    In the early weeks of the leadership contest, without yet having become Prime Minister, Liz Truss was able to establish a narrow lead in head-to-head polling against Keir Starmer for better Prime Minister for the UK. As the contest stretched on, Starmer regained a lead (now at 39% to 35%), but such fluctuations demonstrate how easily the polling picture can improve for the Conservatives under Liz Truss.
  • HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    See my next post
  • ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Any cctv or ring doorbell cameras in the neighbours who could help ?

    Often police and insurers will enquire if any are available
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,542
    Nigelb said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    It wasn't the end of art.
    Did it end certain parts of art? I'd guess there are fewer portrait painters than previously.

    When my daughter was younger I used to suggest to her that there were careers in graphic design, etc, if she wanted to pursue the drawing and painting that she enjoyed spending a lot of time with. She demurred and is now at university on a Maths degree, gaining skills that would be useful for creating a machine learning art algorithm.

    Reckon she made a wise choice to ignore her Dad.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,849

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Any cctv or ring doorbell cameras in the neighbours who could help ?

    Often police and insurers will enquire if any are available
    Good thinking Big G - I think my next door neighbour may have one.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

    No chance of that happening anytime soon. Though I am sure McCain would have won in 2000 and likely the popular vote too and Kasich would have beaten Hillary in 2016.
    Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?
    Voter Fraud and/or letting Not Real Americans vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,472
    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    The doubt is how the awful grifters of the world get us in this situations - if someone sticks so rigidly even to an absurdity we question ourselves.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

    No chance of that happening anytime soon. Though I am sure McCain would have won in 2000 and likely the popular vote too and Kasich would have beaten Hillary in 2016.
    Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?
    Voter Fraud and/or letting Not Real Americans vote.
    You mean, all those white immigrants like George Washington?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    1h
    85% of Alaskans say ranked-choice voting (RCV) ballots are simple to understand and fill out. 🗳

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    · 2h
    Some people may think RCV is confusing. But Alaskans didn’t. The logical explanation for so many Republicans not ranking Palin is just that they didn’t want to vote for her!

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1565338721335279620

    It's a weird thing about human nature that we often use bad arguments even when better ones exist (even if one is not persuaded by it even then). The argument people cannot figure out a relatively straightforward system like that is really just defenders of the current system insulting people.
    What they seem incapable of understanding is that a third of Alaska's Republican voters would rather vote for a Democrat than Palin.

    That's not "ballet exhaustion" (whatever TF that means), or "fraudulent", or "convoluted", or a "scam" - it's just voters telling them to pick candidates who aren't utterly risible.

    Yeah right Romney lost. McCain lost. Molinaro lost. Its a fake premise. Watch the Repubs chose a moderate the left approves of and lose anyway.

    No chance of that happening anytime soon. Though I am sure McCain would have won in 2000 and likely the popular vote too and Kasich would have beaten Hillary in 2016.
    Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?
    Voter Fraud and/or letting Not Real Americans vote.
    You mean, all those white immigrants like George Washington?
    Depends whether one thinks Virginia is part of Real America, in his case, doesn't it?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,849
    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,542
    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    It seems to be standard advice from some lawyers or insurers never to admit to liability as by making the process as difficult as possible for the counterparty they increase the chances that they will give up as it's too much hassle.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Me likey. The untidy red deletion of the c-bomb is my work. Don’t want the ban hammer.

    And like all the famous bands, he'll be back on tour again within two years.
    Just reprising the old hits for cash, too.
    Trouble for the Conservatives is that their fanbase is increasingly elderly and relying on nostalgia as the elixir of lost youth as well.
    We used to joke that Bozo would be the end of the Tory party - given the forthcoming crisis I really believe the Tory party will be doomed unless Truss comes up with a decent plan next week...
    Ever since I've taken an interest in politics, I've heard repeated predictions of the end of the Conservative or Labour parties. It never happens.
    There's a second time for everything, though. And the Conservatives have set themselves a stinker of a problem to solve demographically.

    It's always been the case that people get more right-wing on average as they get older. But since about 2016, the effect has become huge. Really huge.

    I like this set of graphs because it explains so much, but I hate it because I wish it weren't this way;




    The Conservatives really need to do something to appeal to people who haven't made a pile by buying a house cheaply a couple of decades ago. At the moment, they don't seem to be even trying.
    Not too much though, on that graph Blair and New Labour even won over 65s in 1997 as well as every other age group in the Tories worst defeat since 1832
    That's not the point I'm making though.

    Up to 2015, there's a fairly gentle gradient on the lines- the Conservative share goes up by 10 to 15 percentage points from school leavers to coffin dodgers. The line bobbed up and down from one election to the next, but the Conservatives were competitive with young voters and Labour were competitive with old voters.

    Between 2015 and 2017, something changed. Now the profile is about a 50 percentage point change over the lifespan of man. We know about the Conservative success at picking up older Red Wall voters, but it's already come at the expense of repelling younger voters.

    That's new, and it means that the Conservatives will have to run awfully fast to keep ahead of the Grim Reaper. They have a good record of reinvention, but it ain't going to be easy.
    This issue is fascinating as well as troubling. And there is more to draw attention to.

    1) Labour had appealed to the over 65s but have stopped doing so. Why?

    2) The extremes occur in 2017 and 2019. In 2017 the Tories had relatively shafted/alienated the old with their nonsense on social care, and ran the worst campaign ever but still did well with that group. It is impossible to conclude anything except these freak outturns are Brexit and Jezza related.

  • Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    If you can view the ring camera first it could help you considerably
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Any cctv or ring doorbell cameras in the neighbours who could help ?

    Often police and insurers will enquire if any are available
    Good thinking Big G - I think my next door neighbour may have one.
    You were behaving as the Highway Code tells you to which is helpful

    201
    Do not reverse from a side road into a main road. When using a driveway, reverse in and drive out if you can.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    If he's involving solicitors I certainly would. Legally I think you have to anyway as it was an accident involving two people on a public road.

    Don't know what @rcs1000 would think but I would be inclined to refer his solicitor to them as well rather than reply directly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,048
    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    I think the Tories could be well ahead in the polls within a few weeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do British voters think would make a better Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? (31 August)

    Starmer vs Sunak

    Starmer 38%
    Sunak 30%

    Truss vs Starmer

    Starmer 39%
    Truss 35%

    Truss vs Sunak

    Truss 37%
    Sunak 30%
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565376673947815949?s=20&t=jH3PkL-MR8iGMvHooWJvlQ;

    At this moment, which of the following do 2019 Conservative voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom? (31 August)

    Sunak vs Starmer

    Sunak 55%
    Starmer 22%

    Truss vs Starmer

    Truss 55%
    Starmer 24%

    Truss vs Sunak

    Truss 46%
    Sunak 35%
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565376679215865856?s=20&t=jH3PkL-MR8iGMvHooWJvlQ
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 892
    ydoethur said: "Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?"

    Republicans won the popular vote for the House of Representatives in 2014 and 2016, and in other elections since that collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

    The total popular vote for the House is not a perfect measure of party strength, since a few seats are uncontested (most of them heavily Democratic), but it is better than presidential elections.

    (Incidentally, I have argued since late in 2016 that Trump was the beneficiary of "reverse coat tails", that he was pulled to victory by more popular Republicans lower down on the balllot in key states.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Me likey. The untidy red deletion of the c-bomb is my work. Don’t want the ban hammer.

    And like all the famous bands, he'll be back on tour again within two years.
    Just reprising the old hits for cash, too.
    Trouble for the Conservatives is that their fanbase is increasingly elderly and relying on nostalgia as the elixir of lost youth as well.
    We used to joke that Bozo would be the end of the Tory party - given the forthcoming crisis I really believe the Tory party will be doomed unless Truss comes up with a decent plan next week...
    Ever since I've taken an interest in politics, I've heard repeated predictions of the end of the Conservative or Labour parties. It never happens.
    There's a second time for everything, though. And the Conservatives have set themselves a stinker of a problem to solve demographically.

    It's always been the case that people get more right-wing on average as they get older. But since about 2016, the effect has become huge. Really huge.

    I like this set of graphs because it explains so much, but I hate it because I wish it weren't this way;




    The Conservatives really need to do something to appeal to people who haven't made a pile by buying a house cheaply a couple of decades ago. At the moment, they don't seem to be even trying.
    Not too much though, on that graph Blair and New Labour even won over 65s in 1997 as well as every other age group in the Tories worst defeat since 1832
    That's not the point I'm making though.

    Up to 2015, there's a fairly gentle gradient on the lines- the Conservative share goes up by 10 to 15 percentage points from school leavers to coffin dodgers. The line bobbed up and down from one election to the next, but the Conservatives were competitive with young voters and Labour were competitive with old voters.

    Between 2015 and 2017, something changed. Now the profile is about a 50 percentage point change over the lifespan of man. We know about the Conservative success at picking up older Red Wall voters, but it's already come at the expense of repelling younger voters.

    That's new, and it means that the Conservatives will have to run awfully fast to keep ahead of the Grim Reaper. They have a good record of reinvention, but it ain't going to be easy.
    If you actually look at the details the Conservatives won significantly more voteshare in 2019 in every age group apart from under 25s than they did in 1997 and 2001.

    So that does not really hold and the Tories almost never win under 25s anyway, the last time they did was 1983
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    Complete wideboy if he has got a solicitors letter to you on the same day

    Just out of interest if you've got his reg you can find out online if he is taxed and MOTed up to date and ask whether he is insured

    https://www.askmid.com/askmidenquiry.aspx
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    ydoethur said: "Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?"

    Republicans won the popular vote for the House of Representatives in 2014 and 2016, and in other elections since that collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

    The total popular vote for the House is not a perfect measure of party strength, since a few seats are uncontested (most of them heavily Democratic), but it is better than presidential elections.

    (Incidentally, I have argued since late in 2016 that Trump was the beneficiary of "reverse coat tails", that he was pulled to victory by more popular Republicans lower down on the balllot in key states.)

    True, O Cophetua.

    However, the Presidency is sexier in many important respects. And the fact is, since 1991 they have won the popular vote in Presidential elections only in 2004 - by a wafer-thin margin, boasting an incumbent President against a gaffe-prone challenger.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,542
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Me likey. The untidy red deletion of the c-bomb is my work. Don’t want the ban hammer.

    And like all the famous bands, he'll be back on tour again within two years.
    Just reprising the old hits for cash, too.
    Trouble for the Conservatives is that their fanbase is increasingly elderly and relying on nostalgia as the elixir of lost youth as well.
    We used to joke that Bozo would be the end of the Tory party - given the forthcoming crisis I really believe the Tory party will be doomed unless Truss comes up with a decent plan next week...
    Ever since I've taken an interest in politics, I've heard repeated predictions of the end of the Conservative or Labour parties. It never happens.
    There's a second time for everything, though. And the Conservatives have set themselves a stinker of a problem to solve demographically.

    It's always been the case that people get more right-wing on average as they get older. But since about 2016, the effect has become huge. Really huge.

    I like this set of graphs because it explains so much, but I hate it because I wish it weren't this way;




    The Conservatives really need to do something to appeal to people who haven't made a pile by buying a house cheaply a couple of decades ago. At the moment, they don't seem to be even trying.
    Not too much though, on that graph Blair and New Labour even won over 65s in 1997 as well as every other age group in the Tories worst defeat since 1832
    That's not the point I'm making though.

    Up to 2015, there's a fairly gentle gradient on the lines- the Conservative share goes up by 10 to 15 percentage points from school leavers to coffin dodgers. The line bobbed up and down from one election to the next, but the Conservatives were competitive with young voters and Labour were competitive with old voters.

    Between 2015 and 2017, something changed. Now the profile is about a 50 percentage point change over the lifespan of man. We know about the Conservative success at picking up older Red Wall voters, but it's already come at the expense of repelling younger voters.

    That's new, and it means that the Conservatives will have to run awfully fast to keep ahead of the Grim Reaper. They have a good record of reinvention, but it ain't going to be easy.
    This issue is fascinating as well as troubling. And there is more to draw attention to.

    1) Labour had appealed to the over 65s but have stopped doing so. Why?

    2) The extremes occur in 2017 and 2019. In 2017 the Tories had relatively shafted/alienated the old with their nonsense on social care, and ran the worst campaign ever but still did well with that group. It is impossible to conclude anything except these freak outturns are Brexit and Jezza related.

    The shift had started between 2010-15. At the 2015GE the propensity to vote Tory with age was almost twice as strong as it had been in any previous election. So that would suggest it was post-financial crash austerity that created the divide, and Brexit only reinforced it.
  • Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    ydoethur said: "Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?"

    Republicans won the popular vote for the House of Representatives in 2014 and 2016, and in other elections since that collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

    The total popular vote for the House is not a perfect measure of party strength, since a few seats are uncontested (most of them heavily Democratic), but it is better than presidential elections.

    (Incidentally, I have argued since late in 2016 that Trump was the beneficiary of "reverse coat tails", that he was pulled to victory by more popular Republicans lower down on the balllot in key states.)

    There a lot of ways of lookomg at 2016 but Clinton toxicity is my leading cause.

    @Pulpstar favourite stat is the number of voters in Michigan in heavily Democratic area who voted for down ticket races but did not put in a Presidential vote.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    It seems to be standard advice from some lawyers or insurers never to admit to liability as by making the process as difficult as possible for the counterparty they increase the chances that they will give up as it's too much hassle.
    Any lawyer or insurer who is asked the general question: "Should I ever admit legal liability for anything involving the law of tort (BTW this case is the tort of negligence) on the spot before taking advice from a lawyer or insurer" will answer: No.

    No other answer is practical.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,878
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
This discussion has been closed.