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BoJo goes next week but what then? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 220
    Taz said:

    "Labour brought in women’s shortlists, overnight upping female representation, but how that would happen now I don't know – as they have tied themselves in ever more ridiculous knots by being unable to define what a woman is in order to appeal to their activists. They are confused about who has a cervix and whether womanhood is biological or just a feeling in someone’s head. "

    Suzanne Moore - Telegraph (ex-Guardian)

    Wasn’t she terfed out of the Grauniad.
    Flounced out because some of the other staff at the Guardian dared disagree with her.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    That's odd... and how do they know? If a pub is called "The King George" - how do they know which George it is named after?

    Edit to add - and what about pubs like "The Tudor Rose" - is that not named after Henry Tudor? But I imagine not counted looking at that list...
    A friend of mine claims that in the 80s he was trying to track down a friend he thought was drinking in one of the 3 Marquis of Granby pubs in london and did a directory enquiries job, leading to a confusing conversation with, not a pub, but the actual Marquess of actual Granby.
    I'm mildly sceptical, because the normal title of the Marquis of Granby is the Duke of Rutland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Manners,_11th_Duke_of_Rutland
    I've been round his house. Very good if you like that sort of thing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,028

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    Something that's actually being implemented is never judged in the same way as a hypothetical opposition plan.
    Yes it will. What you have said there is wrong in many ways. The “how is this being paid for” efficiency saving, borrowing and future growth just won’t wash with voters, it won’t get their support. Truss is about to make the same mistake with voters that destroyed Ed Millibands leadership as well as Corbyn’s.

    Remember Truss doesn’t just have to realistically fund a crisis budget, ready for implementation, but she needs to have realistic plans for funding her tax cuts on top of funding the crisis spending.

    And opposition can get away with a plan for just six months, and glib sound bites like you should have fixed tge roof when sun was shining, Truss government will be under pressure if it’s only a plan for six months as being in government you need costed plans for longer than that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,112
    darkage said:

    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    @Cookie
    Sorry to hear about this situation.
    I don't think the police attend if there are no one is injured.
    I would think about what happened overnight, then write a report and send it to the insurance company explaining your account of what happened, include photos and diagrams etc.
    This is what I did last year, after my Insurance company concluded we were at fault in a collision.
    We fought it out, got someone in the Insurance company to look in to it, and eventually they got the other side to admit liability.
    If you were reversing in to your drive, and it sounds like you were quite a long way in to the manouevre, so the other person should have anticipated the hazard and stopped in time.

    I would probably just quote the relevant part of the highway code to the Insurance company, say that you checked and the road was clear when you started the manoevre, and that the other driver should have anticipated the hazard.

    If you were reversing out on the other hand, then I think you would be at fault as you should have seen the oncoming traffic, I think this manouevre is not allowed in the highway code.
    Thanks @darkage - I've done pretty much exactly what you said. Going to sleep on it before I send it though. Fortunately my wife took some photos which illustrate exactly what my interpretation was and prove to me that I'm not in the wrong and just trying to justify bad driving to myself. The main point is that he's hit me in the side while my back end is on the drive, and he's come from the direction of a minor road with give-way priority onto the road where my house is. (Again, this is what I thought had happened, but you start to doubt yourself.)
    And I think you're right about the police - I spoke to my friend Phil who's a recently retired GM policeman - apparently the police don't investigate where there's no injury and no suggestion of dangerouse driving (and whatever I may think of the other guy, he can't have been going more than 15mph).
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    edited September 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn. I didn’t realise until recently that pub tickets were a thing. Like soccer groundhoppers but they go from town to town having drinks at pubs and ticking them off.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    Something that's actually being implemented is never judged in the same way as a hypothetical opposition plan.
    Yes it will. What you have said there is wrong in many ways. The “how is this being paid for” efficiency saving, borrowing and future growth just won’t wash with voters, it won’t get their support. Truss is about to make the same mistake with voters that destroyed Ed Millibands leadership as well as Corbyn’s.

    Remember Truss doesn’t just have to realistically fund a crisis budget, ready for implementation, but she needs to have realistic plans for funding her tax cuts on top of funding the crisis spending.

    And opposition can get away with a plan for just six months, and glib sound bites like you should have fixed tge roof when sun was shining, Truss government will be under pressure if it’s only a plan for six months as being in government you need costed plans for longer than that.
    Well and also the comparison disfavours the actual vs the hypothetical, because the consequences are actual.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
    interesting
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
    James 1 here: https://kingjamespub.co.uk/
    https://talesofonecity.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/history-of-the-house-kings-wark/


    Robert 1: https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/scotland/dumfries-and-galloway/the-robert-the-bruce-dumfries
    https://www.kingroberthotel.co.uk/

    No Alexander, sadly.

    Marie Stuart - her attendants here http://www.scotlandspubsandbars.co.uk/location/the-four-marys/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,028

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
    I did warn Labour of complacency and at times it seems an awful lot is being taken for granted

    I think it’s pretty safe for us all to take for granted that Truss and Kwarzy don’t have the skill set for the top jobs, they are actually going to be crap at leadership in these top jobs - don’t we already have enough evidence of this - lack of communication skills and personality and policy pragmatism?

    And it is safe to take for granted there are signs the voters arn’t listen to the Tory’s anymore, a rubicon have been crossed there this year.

    Complacency from Labour would manifest itself in a drift leftward into pie in the sky lefty policies and economics, and in a lack of party discipline - are we really seeing those real signs of complacency?
    Labour's issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.

    We've spent the last 20 years pursuing a virtue-signalling energy policy, which has left us f****d on energy security, a virtue-signalling policing policy, which gave us Rotherham, a virtue-signalling water policy that has given us winter floods and summer water restrictions, a virtue signalling benefit entitlement policy that is flooding us with economic migrants, a virtue-signalling foreign policy (I'll let you fill in the blanks there), and now a virtue signalling farming policy that if continued, is likely to lead to food shortages. That's just the edited highlights.

    We have been rudely awakened to Britain's utter dysfunction, and what solutions has Keir got to any of this? F**k all! He's worse than the Tories on most if not all of the major issues.

    That's why Liz might, just might work, because at the moment, she shows the will to actually challenge some of this shite, and she has proven that she can get things done.
    The inherent vice that reeks from your post is we can easily swap Truss for Brown, and Labour for Dave and George.

    “Dave and George issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.”

    “That’s why Brown just might work, as he has proven he can get things done.”

    In fact Brown had even far far more evidence he could deliver than Truss has - she keeps pointing to her post Brexit trade deals.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,028



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    This depends on whether the opposition politicians and media make funding of the plan a big issue. It was a big issue in 2010 because the Tories and the media make it a big issue.

    It's much harder for Labour to make it a big issue because Labour will always want to spend more money.
    If the crisis spending and tax cuts is to be paid for from future growth (the plan delivers) borrowing and efficiency savings, the everyday voter people will be mulling this over straightaway.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    edited September 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
    James 1 here: https://kingjamespub.co.uk/
    https://talesofonecity.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/history-of-the-house-kings-wark/


    Robert 1: https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/scotland/dumfries-and-galloway/the-robert-the-bruce-dumfries
    https://www.kingroberthotel.co.uk/

    No Alexander, sadly.

    Marie Stuart - her attendants here http://www.scotlandspubsandbars.co.uk/location/the-four-marys/
    Stayed in Dumfries a couple of years ago and I reckon we drank in that pub. The long bar looks very familiar and it had a nice selection of local beers.

    There are even a couple of Napoleon Inns, one in Boscastle and one in Boston, and the Prince bonaparte in London.

    I expect many of these pubs are not as interesting as the name.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,435
    edited September 2022
    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    Take photos, send them and all details to your insurer and do not enter into conversation with the other party. That way you cannot say anything that might compromise your case.

    Many years ago, I had a similar situation up in Carrington at the cross-roads with Flixton Road were I was hit side on and the read drivers-side door and wheel arch were damaged by the other driver, sufficiently badly that my car was written off.

    I too wondered about blame as it was in the middle of a crossroads, but I left it to the insurance and they ruled that I was in the right and that the other car, by driving into my side, had not been paying due care and attention.

    If the other party is rude, nasty or decpetive, just ignore them, document everything and put it in the hands of the insurance
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,230



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    This depends on whether the opposition politicians and media make funding of the plan a big issue. It was a big issue in 2010 because the Tories and the media make it a big issue.

    It's much harder for Labour to make it a big issue because Labour will always want to spend more money.
    If the crisis spending and tax cuts is to be paid for from future growth (the plan delivers) borrowing and efficiency savings, the everyday voter people will be mulling this over straightaway.
    As will the markets.
    We could add a Sterling crisis to That Seventies Show.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,028
    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    Something that's actually being implemented is never judged in the same way as a hypothetical opposition plan.
    Yes it will. What you have said there is wrong in many ways. The “how is this being paid for” efficiency saving, borrowing and future growth just won’t wash with voters, it won’t get their support. Truss is about to make the same mistake with voters that destroyed Ed Millibands leadership as well as Corbyn’s.

    Remember Truss doesn’t just have to realistically fund a crisis budget, ready for implementation, but she needs to have realistic plans for funding her tax cuts on top of funding the crisis spending.

    And opposition can get away with a plan for just six months, and glib sound bites like you should have fixed tge roof when sun was shining, Truss government will be under pressure if it’s only a plan for six months as being in government you need costed plans for longer than that.
    Well and also the comparison disfavours the actual vs the hypothetical, because the consequences are actual.
    PB almost exclusively comments on the actual consequences moving the polls - no what I’m suggesting here voters astute enough to kick the Tories and move polls in coming months before the plans have even failed, by voters sceptical about both proper funding of plan and disliking how regressive the policies are.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
    James 1 here: https://kingjamespub.co.uk/
    https://talesofonecity.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/history-of-the-house-kings-wark/


    Robert 1: https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/scotland/dumfries-and-galloway/the-robert-the-bruce-dumfries
    https://www.kingroberthotel.co.uk/

    No Alexander, sadly.

    Marie Stuart - her attendants here http://www.scotlandspubsandbars.co.uk/location/the-four-marys/
    Stayed in Dumfries a couple of years ago and I reckon we drank in that pub. The long bar looks very familiar and it had a nice selection of local beers.

    There are even a couple of Napoleon Inns, one in Boscastle, and the Prince bonaparte in London.

    I expect many of these pubs are not as interesting as the name.
    You can add

    https://imperialarmschislehurst.co.uk/

    Spotted it when visiting relatives in the area some years back and taking walks to Petts Wood forest and Eltham Palace.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
    James 1 here: https://kingjamespub.co.uk/
    https://talesofonecity.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/history-of-the-house-kings-wark/


    Robert 1: https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/scotland/dumfries-and-galloway/the-robert-the-bruce-dumfries
    https://www.kingroberthotel.co.uk/

    No Alexander, sadly.

    Marie Stuart - her attendants here http://www.scotlandspubsandbars.co.uk/location/the-four-marys/
    Stayed in Dumfries a couple of years ago and I reckon we drank in that pub. The long bar looks very familiar and it had a nice selection of local beers.

    There are even a couple of Napoleon Inns, one in Boscastle and one in Boston, and the Prince bonaparte in London.

    I expect many of these pubs are not as interesting as the name.

    interesting
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992
    edited September 2022

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    Something that's actually being implemented is never judged in the same way as a hypothetical opposition plan.
    The key difference is for a Government implementing an expensive plan to offset a CoL crisis, as opposed to the Opposition, is that the Government's plan has to work and quickly.

    I have been studying my 40 years old A level economics textbooks and am struggling to work out how such a plan could work without any sort of additional revenue to offset its cost. And Truss has ruled out pretty much every taxation option.

    I daresay Bart will be along shortly to put me right.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
    interesting
    Rather uncalled for.

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
    I did warn Labour of complacency and at times it seems an awful lot is being taken for granted

    I think it’s pretty safe for us all to take for granted that Truss and Kwarzy don’t have the skill set for the top jobs, they are actually going to be crap at leadership in these top jobs - don’t we already have enough evidence of this - lack of communication skills and personality and policy pragmatism?

    And it is safe to take for granted there are signs the voters arn’t listen to the Tory’s anymore, a rubicon have been crossed there this year.

    Complacency from Labour would manifest itself in a drift leftward into pie in the sky lefty policies and economics, and in a lack of party discipline - are we really seeing those real signs of complacency?
    Labour's issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.

    We've spent the last 20 years pursuing a virtue-signalling energy policy, which has left us f****d on energy security, a virtue-signalling policing policy, which gave us Rotherham, a virtue-signalling water policy that has given us winter floods and summer water restrictions, a virtue signalling benefit entitlement policy that is flooding us with economic migrants, a virtue-signalling foreign policy (I'll let you fill in the blanks there), and now a virtue signalling farming policy that if continued, is likely to lead to food shortages. That's just the edited highlights.

    We have been rudely awakened to Britain's utter dysfunction, and what solutions has Keir got to any of this? F**k all! He's worse than the Tories on most if not all of the major issues.

    That's why Liz might, just might work, because at the moment, she shows the will to actually challenge some of this shite, and she has proven that she can get things done.
    The inherent vice that reeks from your post is we can easily swap Truss for Brown, and Labour for Dave and George.

    “Dave and George issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.”

    “That’s why Brown just might work, as he has proven he can get things done.”

    In fact Brown had even far far more evidence he could deliver than Truss has - she keeps pointing to her post Brexit trade deals.
    I am not a fan of Dave and George, but I would definitely say that they offered a more decisive break from the immediate past than Gordon did. Keir doesn't. He is 100% your bog standard political animal. There's nothing I can see in his temperament, past career, or current behaviour, that suggests he'll do anything more than serve time whilst our country declines.

    That's not the case with Liz. When she turned around and said the jury was out on Macron and she would judge him by deeds not words, that looked like playing to the gallery (and to an extent was), but then in the account of her meeting with the US Foreign Sec in the FT article, she did exactly the same, challenging him on the special relationship. That gives me hope that she actually will stand up for us. Will Keir stand up for us? Do you really see him having tough conversations with his foreign counterparts?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    dixiedean said:



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    This depends on whether the opposition politicians and media make funding of the plan a big issue. It was a big issue in 2010 because the Tories and the media make it a big issue.

    It's much harder for Labour to make it a big issue because Labour will always want to spend more money.
    If the crisis spending and tax cuts is to be paid for from future growth (the plan delivers) borrowing and efficiency savings, the everyday voter people will be mulling this over straightaway.
    As will the markets.
    We could add a Sterling crisis to That Seventies Show.
    Well the GBP is tanking currently against the greenback at the moment so it could already be starting.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    dixiedean said:



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    This depends on whether the opposition politicians and media make funding of the plan a big issue. It was a big issue in 2010 because the Tories and the media make it a big issue.

    It's much harder for Labour to make it a big issue because Labour will always want to spend more money.
    If the crisis spending and tax cuts is to be paid for from future growth (the plan delivers) borrowing and efficiency savings, the everyday voter people will be mulling this over straightaway.
    As will the markets.
    We could add a Sterling crisis to That Seventies Show.
    Looks at GDP per capita figures for the last 20 years.

    Any idea what is going to change so that we see some actual growth?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
    James 1 here: https://kingjamespub.co.uk/
    https://talesofonecity.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/history-of-the-house-kings-wark/


    Robert 1: https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/scotland/dumfries-and-galloway/the-robert-the-bruce-dumfries
    https://www.kingroberthotel.co.uk/

    No Alexander, sadly.

    Marie Stuart - her attendants here http://www.scotlandspubsandbars.co.uk/location/the-four-marys/
    Stayed in Dumfries a couple of years ago and I reckon we drank in that pub. The long bar looks very familiar and it had a nice selection of local beers.

    There are even a couple of Napoleon Inns, one in Boscastle, and the Prince bonaparte in London.

    I expect many of these pubs are not as interesting as the name.
    You can add

    https://imperialarmschislehurst.co.uk/

    Spotted it when visiting relatives in the area some years back and taking walks to Petts Wood forest and Eltham Palace.
    Looks fabulous. Dating back to 1787 too.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,112
    DM_Andy said:


    Taz said:

    "Labour brought in women’s shortlists, overnight upping female representation, but how that would happen now I don't know – as they have tied themselves in ever more ridiculous knots by being unable to define what a woman is in order to appeal to their activists. They are confused about who has a cervix and whether womanhood is biological or just a feeling in someone’s head. "

    Suzanne Moore - Telegraph (ex-Guardian)

    Wasn’t she terfed out of the Grauniad.
    Flounced out because some of the other staff at the Guardian dared disagree with her.
    ISTR it was a bit more than that. It was other staff saying 'she can't be allowee to say that' - which isn't really 'Comment is Free', is it?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
    interesting
    Rather uncalled for.
    Sure.

    What's interesting is, you read the post (correctly) as sarcasm.

    As 99.9% of posts here are not uninteresting, what does this tell us?

    When I see a poster who is

    much too far out all my life
    And not waving but drowning

    I think I am obliged to give him the heads up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    In more [presumably former] ScoTory news:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/01/michelle-mone-hmrc-winding-up-petition-against-ppe-firm

    'A company linked to the Conservative peer Michelle Mone that was awarded £203m worth of government PPE contracts during the pandemic has been issued with a winding up petition, apparently for unpaid taxes.

    PPE Medpro Ltd was awarded two contracts via the government’s “VIP lane” after Lady Mone approached Michael Gove in May 2020 with an offer to supply personal protective equipment. It is already under investigation by the National Crime Agency (NCA) for potential fraud.

    [...]

    Agnew, at the time a Cabinet Office minister responsible for procurement, referred Mone’s offer to civil servants who processed it through the VIP “high priority lane” for politically connected people. The company that was given the contracts, PPE Medpro Ltd, was not incorporated until 12 May 2020, four days after Mone approached Agnew.

    The company was awarded its first contract, for £80.85m to supply 210m face masks, a month later. The Department of Health and Social Care awarded the second contract two weeks later, for £122m, to supply 25m surgical gowns. Both contracts were awarded directly, without competitive tenders, under Covid emergency regulations.

    The second contract became subject to a dispute after the DHSC rejected the gowns, and it has said it is seeking to recover its money through a dispute resolution process. PPE Medpro has maintained that it complied with the terms of its gowns contract and was entitled to keep the money it was paid.'



  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    This depends on whether the opposition politicians and media make funding of the plan a big issue. It was a big issue in 2010 because the Tories and the media make it a big issue.

    It's much harder for Labour to make it a big issue because Labour will always want to spend more money.
    If the crisis spending and tax cuts is to be paid for from future growth (the plan delivers) borrowing and efficiency savings, the everyday voter people will be mulling this over straightaway.
    As will the markets.
    We could add a Sterling crisis to That Seventies Show.
    Well the GBP is tanking currently against the greenback at the moment so it could already be starting.
    interesting

    pretty suave calling the USD the "greenback" too. respect.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,317
    Cookie said:

    darkage said:

    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    @Cookie
    Sorry to hear about this situation.
    I don't think the police attend if there are no one is injured.
    I would think about what happened overnight, then write a report and send it to the insurance company explaining your account of what happened, include photos and diagrams etc.
    This is what I did last year, after my Insurance company concluded we were at fault in a collision.
    We fought it out, got someone in the Insurance company to look in to it, and eventually they got the other side to admit liability.
    If you were reversing in to your drive, and it sounds like you were quite a long way in to the manouevre, so the other person should have anticipated the hazard and stopped in time.

    I would probably just quote the relevant part of the highway code to the Insurance company, say that you checked and the road was clear when you started the manoevre, and that the other driver should have anticipated the hazard.

    If you were reversing out on the other hand, then I think you would be at fault as you should have seen the oncoming traffic, I think this manouevre is not allowed in the highway code.
    Thanks @darkage - I've done pretty much exactly what you said. Going to sleep on it before I send it though. Fortunately my wife took some photos which illustrate exactly what my interpretation was and prove to me that I'm not in the wrong and just trying to justify bad driving to myself. The main point is that he's hit me in the side while my back end is on the drive, and he's come from the direction of a minor road with give-way priority onto the road where my house is. (Again, this is what I thought had happened, but you start to doubt yourself.)
    And I think you're right about the police - I spoke to my friend Phil who's a recently retired GM policeman - apparently the police don't investigate where there's no injury and no suggestion of dangerouse driving (and whatever I may think of the other guy, he can't have been going more than 15mph).
    It sounds pretty clear that he was in the wrong.
    I think people have quite a strong defensive instinct, sometimes they don't want to admit liability, and they can get quite upset for who knows what reason.
    In our case, the people who were most agitated were the witnesses who were convinced that the guy was trying to pull off a scam by rear ending us. They then started telling him to go back to his own country (he was in traditional Islamic dress). I felt that I had to come to his defence at this point and say that this is unacceptable, so then the witnesses lost interest.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
    James 1 here: https://kingjamespub.co.uk/
    https://talesofonecity.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/history-of-the-house-kings-wark/


    Robert 1: https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/scotland/dumfries-and-galloway/the-robert-the-bruce-dumfries
    https://www.kingroberthotel.co.uk/

    No Alexander, sadly.

    Marie Stuart - her attendants here http://www.scotlandspubsandbars.co.uk/location/the-four-marys/
    Stayed in Dumfries a couple of years ago and I reckon we drank in that pub. The long bar looks very familiar and it had a nice selection of local beers.

    There are even a couple of Napoleon Inns, one in Boscastle and one in Boston, and the Prince bonaparte in London.

    I expect many of these pubs are not as interesting as the name.

    interesting
    Beg to differ. This chart is showing some very unexpected anomalies in popular culture, whether C19 urban expansion or Wetherspoons marketing.

    I believe that a similar survey of nautical types brings up a preponderance of Admiral Benbows - indicating a once very popular sailor in his C18 day.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Saying "cable" makes you look even more of a dick, mind. Highly recommended.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,901
    edited September 2022



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    I am happy to be accused of insulting the voters. They elected Boris with an 80 odd seat majority, after all. They should be insulted.

    Also, I think you are misreading what happened with Corby.

    Corby did offer lots of uncosted good things in 2017, and it was very popular. It was only because the Scottish Tories did unexpectedly well that May was able to hang on in Downing Street.

    By 2019, Corby had lost his way through his ambivalent attitude to Brexit and the (IMO) smears of anti-semitism from his opponents (both inside and outside the Labour party). He did not lose because of the “how is it being paid for” response.

    "To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth ...."

    Errr ... everything is actually paid by borrowing or saving or the proceeds of growth which lead to higher tax takes.

    I haven't understood how you want Truss to pay for this -- from her own personal bank account? Or from Jeff Bezos'?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    How many greenbacks for a gallon of gas, dude, so as I can do the cannonball run?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    edited September 2022

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
    interesting
    Rather uncalled for.

    Yes it is but it is the measure of the man.

    He seems to have some personal beef against me going back many months. Don’t know why, can’t say I care. I just ignore him.

    If he wants to spend his time snarking at my posts or making snide comments he can fill his boots. It’s his time he’s wasting getting angry at a random person on the internet. Not mine. Doesn’t bother me. I will carry on as I am and just not engage with him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    This thread has had the Harold Harefoot treatment from J.D. Wetherspoon.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
    James 1 here: https://kingjamespub.co.uk/
    https://talesofonecity.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/history-of-the-house-kings-wark/


    Robert 1: https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/scotland/dumfries-and-galloway/the-robert-the-bruce-dumfries
    https://www.kingroberthotel.co.uk/

    No Alexander, sadly.

    Marie Stuart - her attendants here http://www.scotlandspubsandbars.co.uk/location/the-four-marys/
    Stayed in Dumfries a couple of years ago and I reckon we drank in that pub. The long bar looks very familiar and it had a nice selection of local beers.

    There are even a couple of Napoleon Inns, one in Boscastle and one in Boston, and the Prince bonaparte in London.

    I expect many of these pubs are not as interesting as the name.

    interesting
    Beg to differ. This chart is showing some very unexpected anomalies in popular culture, whether C19 urban expansion or Wetherspoons marketing.

    I believe that a similar survey of nautical types brings up a preponderance of Admiral Benbows - indicating a once very popular sailor in his C18 day.
    Decor in the admiral benbow is not what I would have expected.

    https://pubheritage.camra.org.uk/pubs/8225
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
    interesting
    Rather uncalled for.

    Yes it is but it is the measure of the man.

    He seems to have some personal beef against me going back many months. Don’t know why, can’t say I care. I just ignore him.

    If he wants to spend his time snarking at my posts or making snide comments he can fill his boots. It’s his time he’s wasting getting angry at a random person on the internet. Not mine. Doesn’t bother me. I will carry on as I am and just not engage with him.
    You are just the most relentlessly boring human being I have encountered in 25 years on the internet, it is painfully obvious what effect you are striving for in your little posts about what an excellent dish of humble tomatoes you and your good lady wife had at the Strangled Duck in 2013, and how far short you fall. And Charles of blessed memory was not a posh person, he was - agonizingly - a person like you's misperception of what a posh person is like.

    What are you here for?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    The Sweyn Forkbeard is a Spoons in Gainsborough.

    I’ll give that a miss.
    James 1 here: https://kingjamespub.co.uk/
    https://talesofonecity.wordpress.com/2018/02/26/history-of-the-house-kings-wark/


    Robert 1: https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/scotland/dumfries-and-galloway/the-robert-the-bruce-dumfries
    https://www.kingroberthotel.co.uk/

    No Alexander, sadly.

    Marie Stuart - her attendants here http://www.scotlandspubsandbars.co.uk/location/the-four-marys/
    Stayed in Dumfries a couple of years ago and I reckon we drank in that pub. The long bar looks very familiar and it had a nice selection of local beers.

    There are even a couple of Napoleon Inns, one in Boscastle and one in Boston, and the Prince bonaparte in London.

    I expect many of these pubs are not as interesting as the name.

    interesting
    Beg to differ. This chart is showing some very unexpected anomalies in popular culture, whether C19 urban expansion or Wetherspoons marketing.

    I believe that a similar survey of nautical types brings up a preponderance of Admiral Benbows - indicating a once very popular sailor in his C18 day.
    Decor in the admiral benbow is not what I would have expected.

    https://pubheritage.camra.org.uk/pubs/8225
    Mm, don't know - matelots ashore and all that.

    IIRC there's an A. B. in Treasure Island, for that matter.

    I must fish out from my bookcase the Willis book sometime , whence I got that little snippet of historical insight re the pub names:

    https://www.quercusbooks.co.uk/titles/sam-willis/the-admiral-benbow/9781849160377/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,028



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    I am happy to be accused of insulting the voters. They elected Boris with an 80 odd seat majority, after all. They should be insulted.

    Also, I think you are misreading what happened with Corby.

    Corby did offer lots of uncosted good things in 2017, and it was very popular. It was only because the Scottish Tories did unexpectedly well that May was able to hang on in Downing Street.

    By 2019, Corby had lost his way through his ambivalent attitude to Brexit and the (IMO) smears of anti-semitism from his opponents (both inside and outside the Labour party). He did not lose because of the “how is it being paid for” response.

    "To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth ...."

    Errr ... everything is actually paid by borrowing or saving or the proceeds of growth which lead to higher tax takes.

    I haven't understood how you want Truss to pay for this -- from her own personal bank account? Or from Jeff Bezos'?
    There’s never a call for insulting ordinary everyday people calling them stupid at politics.

    Truth is, in days after 19 election even Lefty Labour members like momentum admitted they got the manifesto wrong, offering too much, unconvincing millions on how to pay for it. Other things played in the big defeat and hollowing out of Corbyn, but I am right this played big too.

    Your Bezos comment is interesting. One argument against windfall tax on energy companies is how the market place reacts - energy companies sat there in market next to Amazon, getting clobbered by tax, Amazon say we make enormous profits and don’t pay any tax - ha ha, this government have no idea. The argument for bashing one firms profit Leaving other forms profits unabashed is what?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,356
    Carnyx said:

    In more [presumably former] ScoTory news:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/01/michelle-mone-hmrc-winding-up-petition-against-ppe-firm

    'A company linked to the Conservative peer Michelle Mone that was awarded £203m worth of government PPE contracts during the pandemic has been issued with a winding up petition, apparently for unpaid taxes.

    PPE Medpro Ltd was awarded two contracts via the government’s “VIP lane” after Lady Mone approached Michael Gove in May 2020 with an offer to supply personal protective equipment. It is already under investigation by the National Crime Agency (NCA) for potential fraud.

    [...]

    Agnew, at the time a Cabinet Office minister responsible for procurement, referred Mone’s offer to civil servants who processed it through the VIP “high priority lane” for politically connected people. The company that was given the contracts, PPE Medpro Ltd, was not incorporated until 12 May 2020, four days after Mone approached Agnew.

    The company was awarded its first contract, for £80.85m to supply 210m face masks, a month later. The Department of Health and Social Care awarded the second contract two weeks later, for £122m, to supply 25m surgical gowns. Both contracts were awarded directly, without competitive tenders, under Covid emergency regulations.

    The second contract became subject to a dispute after the DHSC rejected the gowns, and it has said it is seeking to recover its money through a dispute resolution process. PPE Medpro has maintained that it complied with the terms of its gowns contract and was entitled to keep the money it was paid.'



    Lock her up and throw away the key. I can’t think of a more obnoxious arsehole better person for the courts to make an example of.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pm215 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:


    Back in the early 1980s a branch of AI called Expert Systems were going to make GPs obsolete due to *insert hype here*

    Spoiler: they did not.

    Well they did; it's called google.
    Google is many things, but it is definitely not an Expert System as the term was used in the 80s.
    No, but {educated layman plus google} is.
    I have diagnosed myself several times via Google. Once was when I had a strange constellation of symptoms which had my doctors mystified. Indeed one of them basically accused me of making it up

    So I went to Doc Google, and plugged in all my weird symptoms - from eyebrow loss to thick hair and amnesia and the rest - and it came back immediately. Hypothyroidism. I was an unusual case, male, quite young, but the symptoms were so ODD it had to be that?

    I went back to the GPs and they were still skeptical but I insisted, they gave me a blood test. Bingo. Hypothyroidism

    They confessed the results quite sheepishly

    Without Google, how long might I have gone on arguing with the quacks?
    Decades ago at a meal in a friends' home another guest said in passing that she thought I was hyperthyroidic (Is that a word?). I suppose she found me over-active, too focused or something. Autistic might be nearer the mark, but who cares? It suits me. At that time my resting heart rate was around 50 bpm so I'm not sure she was tuned in.

    Concerning AI replacing humans: how would AI ask, and try to solve, the loopy questions theoretical physicist ask? Of course, physicists do make huge use of digital methods in some cases "intelligent" ones too.

    Has anyone tried to get AI to write a Shakespearean sonnet or play?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,028

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
    interesting
    Rather uncalled for.

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
    I did warn Labour of complacency and at times it seems an awful lot is being taken for granted

    I think it’s pretty safe for us all to take for granted that Truss and Kwarzy don’t have the skill set for the top jobs, they are actually going to be crap at leadership in these top jobs - don’t we already have enough evidence of this - lack of communication skills and personality and policy pragmatism?

    And it is safe to take for granted there are signs the voters arn’t listen to the Tory’s anymore, a rubicon have been crossed there this year.

    Complacency from Labour would manifest itself in a drift leftward into pie in the sky lefty policies and economics, and in a lack of party discipline - are we really seeing those real signs of complacency?
    Labour's issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.

    We've spent the last 20 years pursuing a virtue-signalling energy policy, which has left us f****d on energy security, a virtue-signalling policing policy, which gave us Rotherham, a virtue-signalling water policy that has given us winter floods and summer water restrictions, a virtue signalling benefit entitlement policy that is flooding us with economic migrants, a virtue-signalling foreign policy (I'll let you fill in the blanks there), and now a virtue signalling farming policy that if continued, is likely to lead to food shortages. That's just the edited highlights.

    We have been rudely awakened to Britain's utter dysfunction, and what solutions has Keir got to any of this? F**k all! He's worse than the Tories on most if not all of the major issues.

    That's why Liz might, just might work, because at the moment, she shows the will to actually challenge some of this shite, and she has proven that she can get things done.
    The inherent vice that reeks from your post is we can easily swap Truss for Brown, and Labour for Dave and George.

    “Dave and George issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.”

    “That’s why Brown just might work, as he has proven he can get things done.”

    In fact Brown had even far far more evidence he could deliver than Truss has - she keeps pointing to her post Brexit trade deals.
    I am not a fan of Dave and George, but I would definitely say that they offered a more decisive break from the immediate past than Gordon did. Keir doesn't. He is 100% your bog standard political animal. There's nothing I can see in his temperament, past career, or current behaviour, that suggests he'll do anything more than serve time whilst our country declines.

    That's not the case with Liz. When she turned around and said the jury was out on Macron and she would judge him by deeds not words, that looked like playing to the gallery (and to an extent was), but then in the account of her meeting with the US Foreign Sec in the FT article, she did exactly the same, challenging him on the special relationship. That gives me hope that she actually will stand up for us. Will Keir stand up for us? Do you really see him having tough conversations with his foreign counterparts?
    I do find you interesting in standing up for both Putin and Truss on here 🙂 Proper use of this site for challenging expanding your debating skills.

    Talk us through your avatar Lucky. Is it you. An album cover. Both?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    .
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
    White Boar pubs are named after Richard III’s device, aren’t they ?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
    interesting
    Rather uncalled for.

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
    I did warn Labour of complacency and at times it seems an awful lot is being taken for granted

    I think it’s pretty safe for us all to take for granted that Truss and Kwarzy don’t have the skill set for the top jobs, they are actually going to be crap at leadership in these top jobs - don’t we already have enough evidence of this - lack of communication skills and personality and policy pragmatism?

    And it is safe to take for granted there are signs the voters arn’t listen to the Tory’s anymore, a rubicon have been crossed there this year.

    Complacency from Labour would manifest itself in a drift leftward into pie in the sky lefty policies and economics, and in a lack of party discipline - are we really seeing those real signs of complacency?
    Labour's issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.

    We've spent the last 20 years pursuing a virtue-signalling energy policy, which has left us f****d on energy security, a virtue-signalling policing policy, which gave us Rotherham, a virtue-signalling water policy that has given us winter floods and summer water restrictions, a virtue signalling benefit entitlement policy that is flooding us with economic migrants, a virtue-signalling foreign policy (I'll let you fill in the blanks there), and now a virtue signalling farming policy that if continued, is likely to lead to food shortages. That's just the edited highlights.

    We have been rudely awakened to Britain's utter dysfunction, and what solutions has Keir got to any of this? F**k all! He's worse than the Tories on most if not all of the major issues.

    That's why Liz might, just might work, because at the moment, she shows the will to actually challenge some of this shite, and she has proven that she can get things done.
    The inherent vice that reeks from your post is we can easily swap Truss for Brown, and Labour for Dave and George.

    “Dave and George issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.”

    “That’s why Brown just might work, as he has proven he can get things done.”

    In fact Brown had even far far more evidence he could deliver than Truss has - she keeps pointing to her post Brexit trade deals.
    I am not a fan of Dave and George, but I would definitely say that they offered a more decisive break from the immediate past than Gordon did. Keir doesn't. He is 100% your bog standard political animal. There's nothing I can see in his temperament, past career, or current behaviour, that suggests he'll do anything more than serve time whilst our country declines.

    That's not the case with Liz. When she turned around and said the jury was out on Macron and she would judge him by deeds not words, that looked like playing to the gallery (and to an extent was), but then in the account of her meeting with the US Foreign Sec in the FT article, she did exactly the same, challenging him on the special relationship. That gives me hope that she actually will stand up for us. Will Keir stand up for us? Do you really see him having tough conversations with his foreign counterparts?
    I do find you interesting in standing up for both Putin and Truss on here 🙂 Proper use of this site for challenging expanding your debating skills.

    Talk us through your avatar Lucky. Is it you. An album cover. Both?
    It's me.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,028

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
    https://en-gb.facebook.com/TheAthelstan/
    https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/lincolnshire/the-sweyn-forkbeard-gainsborough

    Slightly surprised there is no Eirik blóðøx in York, though.
    Thanks. I think I’d give the Athelstan a go but avoid Sweyn.

    Wife and I were in York with a chum and his family at the weekend. That would be a great name for a York pub, especially one close to the Jorvik Viking centre.

    All the names seemed quit vanilla.

    So we had to make do with The Blue Boar and the Maltings.
    interesting
    Rather uncalled for.

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
    I did warn Labour of complacency and at times it seems an awful lot is being taken for granted

    I think it’s pretty safe for us all to take for granted that Truss and Kwarzy don’t have the skill set for the top jobs, they are actually going to be crap at leadership in these top jobs - don’t we already have enough evidence of this - lack of communication skills and personality and policy pragmatism?

    And it is safe to take for granted there are signs the voters arn’t listen to the Tory’s anymore, a rubicon have been crossed there this year.

    Complacency from Labour would manifest itself in a drift leftward into pie in the sky lefty policies and economics, and in a lack of party discipline - are we really seeing those real signs of complacency?
    Labour's issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.

    We've spent the last 20 years pursuing a virtue-signalling energy policy, which has left us f****d on energy security, a virtue-signalling policing policy, which gave us Rotherham, a virtue-signalling water policy that has given us winter floods and summer water restrictions, a virtue signalling benefit entitlement policy that is flooding us with economic migrants, a virtue-signalling foreign policy (I'll let you fill in the blanks there), and now a virtue signalling farming policy that if continued, is likely to lead to food shortages. That's just the edited highlights.

    We have been rudely awakened to Britain's utter dysfunction, and what solutions has Keir got to any of this? F**k all! He's worse than the Tories on most if not all of the major issues.

    That's why Liz might, just might work, because at the moment, she shows the will to actually challenge some of this shite, and she has proven that she can get things done.
    The inherent vice that reeks from your post is we can easily swap Truss for Brown, and Labour for Dave and George.

    “Dave and George issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.”

    “That’s why Brown just might work, as he has proven he can get things done.”

    In fact Brown had even far far more evidence he could deliver than Truss has - she keeps pointing to her post Brexit trade deals.
    I am not a fan of Dave and George, but I would definitely say that they offered a more decisive break from the immediate past than Gordon did. Keir doesn't. He is 100% your bog standard political animal. There's nothing I can see in his temperament, past career, or current behaviour, that suggests he'll do anything more than serve time whilst our country declines.

    That's not the case with Liz. When she turned around and said the jury was out on Macron and she would judge him by deeds not words, that looked like playing to the gallery (and to an extent was), but then in the account of her meeting with the US Foreign Sec in the FT article, she did exactly the same, challenging him on the special relationship. That gives me hope that she actually will stand up for us. Will Keir stand up for us? Do you really see him having tough conversations with his foreign counterparts?
    I do find you interesting in standing up for both Putin and Truss on here 🙂 Proper use of this site for challenging expanding your debating skills.

    Talk us through your avatar Lucky. Is it you. An album cover. Both?
    It's me.
    Great hair cut 👍🏻
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,028
    dixiedean said:



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    This depends on whether the opposition politicians and media make funding of the plan a big issue. It was a big issue in 2010 because the Tories and the media make it a big issue.

    It's much harder for Labour to make it a big issue because Labour will always want to spend more money.
    If the crisis spending and tax cuts is to be paid for from future growth (the plan delivers) borrowing and efficiency savings, the everyday voter people will be mulling this over straightaway.
    As will the markets.
    We could add a Sterling crisis to That Seventies Show.
    Though he at least scored the other night 😆
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Such a fascinating phenomenon occurring with our next PM out in the real world. People who should be predisposed to an incoming Tory PM are not. “Disaster” being the most frequently used word I come across.

    Either she’s not going to be a disaster and will have a massive upswing in support when she surpasses expectations by not letting everyone starve and freeze this winter. Or, it doesn’t matter what she does because her net favourability is already baked in before she’s even started, based on very little indeed.

    I can’t decide which.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623
    Was talking to someone today who was friends with Liz Truss in her 20s. Apparently she used to argue with everyone about everything, no matter how trivial. Just loved being controversial. That’s why they ceased to be friends.

    A good attribute faced with Putin, not so great in most other circumstances.
This discussion has been closed.