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Why being anti-lockdown might not be popular – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just remind me again about Ms Patel's Wonder Policy to deter migrants. How many have we sent to Rwanda? Something like a dozen?

    "Channel migrants: More than 25,000 cross to Kent so far in 2022"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-62705913

    Though Truss will apparently sack Patel from the Cabinet and replace her
    with Braverman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11151197/Home-Secretary-Priti-Patel-faces-axed-cabinet-Liz-Truss-staying-neutral-race.html
    Thus replacing viciousness with stupidity? Go for it....
    Truss also taking a risk having Patel, Sunak, Dowden, Raab, Barclay, Hunt, Shapps, Eustice, Greg Clark etc on the backbenches brooding with resentment against her rather than in her Cabinet. It looks like Truss' Cabinet will instead be even more dominated by her loyalists and supporters than Boris' was
    Each and everyone of those mentioned apart from Hunt are not fit for cabinet
    So apparently even Sunak and Greg Clark and George Eustice are no longer fit for your preferred Cabinet? Rees Mogg, Braverman, Badenoch, Redwood, Frost, Kwarteng, Zahawi, IDS, Dorries though amongst those tipped for Truss' Cabinet
    Thought experiment.

    If you really tried hard, what's the worst possible Cabinet that could be derived from the current Parliamentary Conservative Party?

    And how close are we to getting that?

    Don't have nightmares, everyone.
    Johnson
    Patel
    Truss
    Braverman
    Shapps
    Redwood
    Barclay
    Gove
    Williamson
    Cash
    Pincher
    Dehenna Davison
    Zahawi
    Raab
    Jenkyn
    Dorries
    Mogg

    Disturbingly, most of them have been in cabinet. But that may be name recognition kicking in.
    Fabricant, Bill Cash, Peter Bone, Andrea Jenkyns too would be interested
    You are either trying to provoke or have become more detached from reality than you usually are
    Could be CON no seats next time. Do you fancy voting Plaid Cymru as an alternative? 💙
    I doubt it would be that low, 25 to 30% of the electorate would love a Cabinet of Redwood, Rees Mogg, IDS, Badenoch, Frost, Braverman etc. It is just the remaining 70% would hate it
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 220
    I'm running a tracker on the polls for the Swedish elections, simple average of the most recent poll from each of the five companies, as long as they are not more than a week old. Two new polls added today, SKOP narrow the current Government lead from 2.4% to 0.7%. Novus have gone the other way, moving from Opposition lead by 5.5% to Government lead 2.9%.

    Overall that's moved the current Government side to a 1.8% average lead, seat projection 178-171.



  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,190
    Leon said:

    A Victorian photograph of a ghost in a gas mask


    Fuck me, the early versions of the Bertie Bassett character were quite dark.
  • CBC.ca - Meet the B.C. man who swims to work

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/okanagan-lake-swimming-commute-1.6556441

    Some people walk to work, some take the bus or a train and a few might even take a ferry. Many drive to work, often in bumper-to-bumper traffic.

    Brent Hobbs of Kelowna, B.C., swims.

    He makes his way along the shore of Okanagan Lake to work twice a week, about 1.8 kilometres. He estimates it takes him about 30 minutes, and he carries his laptop and a change of clothes in a waterproof bag.

    "No better way of getting to work," he told CBC's Joseph Otoo after one of his morning commutes.

    "It's nice and cool, but more than that, I'm having fun."

    Hobbs, who works in management at Interior Health, sees wildlife on his swims, such as beavers and osprey. Once, he says he got too close to a beaver and it slapped him with its tail. . . .

    SSI - am wondering, has Leon ever gotten slapped for having got too close to a beaver?
  • Are these aliens woke? That would really make them a threat...

    Cisformers!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Yep, that's all fine


  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 220

    CBC.ca - Meet the B.C. man who swims to work

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/okanagan-lake-swimming-commute-1.6556441

    Some people walk to work, some take the bus or a train and a few might even take a ferry. Many drive to work, often in bumper-to-bumper traffic.

    Brent Hobbs of Kelowna, B.C., swims.

    He makes his way along the shore of Okanagan Lake to work twice a week, about 1.8 kilometres. He estimates it takes him about 30 minutes, and he carries his laptop and a change of clothes in a waterproof bag.

    "No better way of getting to work," he told CBC's Joseph Otoo after one of his morning commutes.

    "It's nice and cool, but more than that, I'm having fun."

    Hobbs, who works in management at Interior Health, sees wildlife on his swims, such as beavers and osprey. Once, he says he got too close to a beaver and it slapped him with its tail. . . .

    SSI - am wondering, has Leon ever gotten slapped for having got too close to a beaver?

    I want to know what kind of waterproof bag he's got, I don't have anything that I would risk my laptop in a downpour let alone a 1.8km swim.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Boris is really trying to repair his image, and come across as almost a sober Victorian paterfamilias. I for one am impressed



  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Clearly something happened re Channel crossings as they seem to have rocketed since early 2021. Which just so happens to be when the transition period ended. It’s not all to do with Brexit but co-operation has fallen and the French might have not be so amenable to helping no 10 after the amount of anti EU bile which emanated from there .

    Yet both sides have continued to say their goal is to stop crossing like this entirely, even after the transition period ended. There's clearly a far greater number of refugees in recent months, which has nothing to do with Brexit.
    I think good weather plays a big role.
    Maybe the other routes (hiding on trucks etc) became a bit more risky due to customs inspections? Hence the dinghy option.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816
    edited August 2022


    SSI - am wondering, has Leon ever gotten slapped for having got too close to a beaver?

    Only if it was a nice beaver.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvWfbIe4X_4
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,506
    edited August 2022
    Somebody tell me how the feck Truss's apparent big idea for tackling energy costs ie. tax cuts will help those most in need ie. those who pay little or no tax? And why using tax cuts to tackle what may be a temporary (but serious while it lasts) issue if prices start to revert to norm in a year or two, won't just leave a massive black hole in the public finances that the Govt won't find impossible to fill (because of an ideological aversion to raising taxes)?

    One might almost suspect that the idea is to use energy prices as a cover story for delivering the tax regime that she desires and couldn't otherwise justify...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    All these lists of worst possible Tory cabinets should include SKS surely!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,344
    The biggest energy company in Austria is insolvent.

    https://www.krone.at/2793928
  • Leon said:

    Yep, that's all fine


    Victorian teletubbies (two of three anyway)?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    edited August 2022

    All these lists of worst possible Tory cabinets should include SKS surely!!

    You are obsessed. Seek help.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited August 2022
    DM_Andy said:

    I'm running a tracker on the polls for the Swedish elections, simple average of the most recent poll from each of the five companies, as long as they are not more than a week old. Two new polls added today, SKOP narrow the current Government lead from 2.4% to 0.7%. Novus have gone the other way, moving from Opposition lead by 5.5% to Government lead 2.9%.

    Overall that's moved the current Government side to a 1.8% average lead, seat projection 178-171.



    Moderates, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats and Liberals combined have comfortably more than the usual centre left grouping of the Social Democrats supported by the Greens and Left Party.

    The Centre Party will prop them up having switched from the centre right Opposition. However the right of centre Opposition grouping will still grow from 143 seats last election when it included the Centre Party to 171 now it includes the Sweden Democrats
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232
    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    The Cabinet and the Conservatives' principal financial donors, who will all have evacuated to sit out the cholera pandemic, rioting, famine and civilizational collapse from a position of sanctuary in Dubai, can then come back home and resettle the land with a slave population of Afghan and Somali boat people, kept under firm control by a security force of Albanian mafia henchmen. Result.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just remind me again about Ms Patel's Wonder Policy to deter migrants. How many have we sent to Rwanda? Something like a dozen?

    "Channel migrants: More than 25,000 cross to Kent so far in 2022"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-62705913

    Though Truss will apparently sack Patel from the Cabinet and replace her
    with Braverman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11151197/Home-Secretary-Priti-Patel-faces-axed-cabinet-Liz-Truss-staying-neutral-race.html
    Thus replacing viciousness with stupidity? Go for it....
    Truss also taking a risk having Patel, Sunak, Dowden, Raab, Barclay, Hunt, Shapps, Eustice, Greg Clark etc on the backbenches brooding with resentment against her rather than in her Cabinet. It looks like Truss' Cabinet will instead be even more dominated by her loyalists and supporters than Boris' was
    Each and everyone of those mentioned apart from Hunt are not fit for cabinet
    So apparently even Sunak and Greg Clark and George Eustice are no longer fit for your preferred Cabinet? Rees Mogg, Braverman, Badenoch, Redwood, Frost, Kwarteng, Zahawi, IDS, Dorries though amongst those tipped for Truss' Cabinet
    Thought experiment.

    If you really tried hard, what's the worst possible Cabinet that could be derived from the current Parliamentary Conservative Party?

    And how close are we to getting that?

    Don't have nightmares, everyone.
    Johnson
    Patel
    Truss
    Braverman
    Shapps
    Redwood
    Barclay
    Gove
    Williamson
    Cash
    Pincher
    Dehenna Davison
    Zahawi
    Raab
    Jenkyn
    Dorries
    Mogg

    Disturbingly, most of them have been in cabinet. But that may be name recognition kicking in.
    Fabricant, Bill Cash, Peter Bone, Andrea Jenkyns too would be interested
    You are either trying to provoke or have become more detached from reality than you usually are
    Could be CON no seats next time. Do you fancy voting Plaid Cymru as an alternative? 💙
    I doubt it would be that low, 25 to 30% of the electorate would love a Cabinet of Redwood, Rees Mogg, IDS, Badenoch, Frost, Braverman etc. It is just the remaining 70% would hate it
    I doubt the vast majority of people in the UK know who these people are.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Found a lovely old photo of me mum. Awww


  • Leon said:

    Boris is really trying to repair his image, and come across as almost a sober Victorian paterfamilias. I for one am impressed



    Is that pic from first season of "Dark Shadows"?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyYg2bD-U94
  • pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
  • Leon said:

    A Victorian photograph of a ghost in a gas mask


    Believe this his Her Majesty herself, wearing protective garb recommended by Scotland Yard for proposed (but ultimately cancelled) royal visit to Ireland in the immediate wake of the Fenian outrages.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Cineworld looks on its last legs to me 5 ice cream flavours instead of usual 15. Nobody even checking tickets. No sweetners for their hot drinks and my Cinema not cleaned since previous film.
    Sad if it folds but its currently in a terrible state even in one of its flagship venues (Sheffield)

    Bloke in front of me bought some vouchers for "friends".

    Didn't have the heart to tell him.

    On a brighter note have now lost well over 4 stones , am below the 4DX weight limit so will be watching g my first ever 4DX film in 14 hrs if they survive that long!!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830


    New image released. Plot thickens.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 895
    If we're at the level of posting random internet pictures - one of my abiding images of lockdown...


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    About to see my 19th film at Cineworld this month goodnight all
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    IshmaelZ said:

    New image released. Plot thickens.

    ...
  • Oh dear

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    edited August 2022
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just remind me again about Ms Patel's Wonder Policy to deter migrants. How many have we sent to Rwanda? Something like a dozen?

    "Channel migrants: More than 25,000 cross to Kent so far in 2022"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-62705913

    Though Truss will apparently sack Patel from the Cabinet and replace her
    with Braverman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11151197/Home-Secretary-Priti-Patel-faces-axed-cabinet-Liz-Truss-staying-neutral-race.html
    Thus replacing viciousness with stupidity? Go for it....
    Truss also taking a risk having Patel, Sunak, Dowden, Raab, Barclay, Hunt, Shapps, Eustice, Greg Clark etc on the backbenches brooding with resentment against her rather than in her Cabinet. It looks like Truss' Cabinet will instead be even more dominated by her loyalists and supporters than Boris' was
    Each and everyone of those mentioned apart from Hunt are not fit for cabinet
    So apparently even Sunak and Greg Clark and George Eustice are no longer fit for your preferred Cabinet? Rees Mogg, Braverman, Badenoch, Redwood, Frost, Kwarteng, Zahawi, IDS, Dorries though amongst those tipped for Truss' Cabinet
    Thought experiment.

    If you really tried hard, what's the worst possible Cabinet that could be derived from the current Parliamentary Conservative Party?

    And how close are we to getting that?

    Don't have nightmares, everyone.
    Johnson
    Patel
    Truss
    Braverman
    Shapps
    Redwood
    Barclay
    Gove
    Williamson
    Cash
    Pincher
    Dehenna Davison
    Zahawi
    Raab
    Jenkyn
    Dorries
    Mogg

    Disturbingly, most of them have been in cabinet. But that may be name recognition kicking in.
    Fabricant, Bill Cash, Peter Bone, Andrea Jenkyns too would be interested
    You are either trying to provoke or have become more detached from reality than you usually are
    Could be CON no seats next time. Do you fancy voting Plaid Cymru as an alternative? 💙
    I doubt it would be that low, 25 to 30 of the electorate would love a Cabinet of Redwood, Rees Mogg, IDS, Badenoch, Frost, Braverman etc. It is just the remaining 30,000,000 would hate it
    Fixed it for you.

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,190
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
    It's certainly going to make for a hell of a marketing campaign.

    "Drink sewage? No shit, Sherlock!"
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
    It's certainly going to make for a hell of a marketing campaign.

    "Drink sewage? No shit, Sherlock!"
    Not a new story, or indeed a new thing. It’s already happening.

    https://theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/poll/2013/may/10/water-health
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816
    We make fun at the idea that aliens are visiting Earth, but it's an established fact that they've been here since at least 1990.


  • CBC.ca - Meet the B.C. man who swims to work

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/okanagan-lake-swimming-commute-1.6556441

    Some people walk to work, some take the bus or a train and a few might even take a ferry. Many drive to work, often in bumper-to-bumper traffic.

    Brent Hobbs of Kelowna, B.C., swims.

    He makes his way along the shore of Okanagan Lake to work twice a week, about 1.8 kilometres. He estimates it takes him about 30 minutes, and he carries his laptop and a change of clothes in a waterproof bag.

    "No better way of getting to work," he told CBC's Joseph Otoo after one of his morning commutes.

    "It's nice and cool, but more than that, I'm having fun."

    Hobbs, who works in management at Interior Health, sees wildlife on his swims, such as beavers and osprey. Once, he says he got too close to a beaver and it slapped him with its tail. . . .

    SSI - am wondering, has Leon ever gotten slapped for having got too close to a beaver?

    Beautiful part of Canada and our eldest son married his Canadian wife in Kelowna in 2015 at a fabulous vineyard
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    alex_ said:

    Somebody tell me how the feck Truss's apparent big idea for tackling energy costs ie. tax cuts will help those most in need ie. those who pay little or no tax? And why using tax cuts to tackle what may be a temporary (but serious while it lasts) issue if prices start to revert to norm in a year or two, won't just leave a massive black hole in the public finances that the Govt won't find impossible to fill (because of an ideological aversion to raising taxes)?

    One might almost suspect that the idea is to use energy prices as a cover story for delivering the tax regime that she desires and couldn't otherwise justify...

    Whatever she is promising now, it is going to be quite hard to follow through on tax cuts, because that also involves cutting spending. She hasn't really said where she would cut spending, but came up with some bizarre ideas about cutting pay for public sector workers in the north of England and also slashing civil service diversity officer jobs. So it actually just seems like 'tax cuts' are being proposed as a way to win the leadership election, and will be forgotten the moment she starts out in office. I don't think there is any ideological agenda at play.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Incredible early photo of Tony Blair at Oxford


  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,911
    Leon said:

    Incredible early photo of Tony Blair at Oxford


    Seems he's heard some ugly rumours

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    I hope you all realise I am creating these photos ex nihilo in about 7 seconds. The power of modern AI is fucking incredible

    It is gonna change the world and then some
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    Leon said:

    I hope you all realise I am creating these photos ex nihilo in about 7 seconds. The power of modern AI is fucking incredible

    It is gonna change the world and then some

    I’m amazed no one has told us about this yet.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
    It's certainly going to make for a hell of a marketing campaign.

    "Drink sewage? No shit, Sherlock!"
    Not a new story, or indeed a new thing. It’s already happening.

    https://theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/poll/2013/may/10/water-health
    Urine is recycled on the Internation Space Station into water. Chris Hadfield says it's cleaner than most drinking water on Earth.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ2T9OJY1lg
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    It isn't a particularly insightful question. Lockdowns were necessary to preserve life. The issue is the cackhanded way Johnson and his government, including Truss and Sunak, implemented them. The basic problem was that they were introduced too late, which meant they were both more onerous and less effective at preventing death than lockdowns in other countries.

    Not sure why Truss and Sunak would want to bring this topic, which just demonstrated the incompetence of the government they are a part of.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    edited August 2022
    DALL-E 2, "Camden Town"


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    edited August 2022
    Just catching up with reports of Laura Kuenssberg's Times interview. Lavishing praise on BigDog. "A Prime Minister of huge consequence". Boris Johnson "tipped the balance" towards Brexit and if he hadn't won the 2019 Leadership context "Brexit might not have happened". Truss is a "great survivor" who has been "underestimated". I love the impartial BBC!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232
    CatMan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
    It's certainly going to make for a hell of a marketing campaign.

    "Drink sewage? No shit, Sherlock!"
    Not a new story, or indeed a new thing. It’s already happening.

    https://theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/poll/2013/may/10/water-health
    Urine is recycled on the Internation Space Station into water. Chris Hadfield says it's cleaner than most drinking water on Earth.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ2T9OJY1lg
    Piss recycling on the ISS is not the job of an English water company though. If it were, all the astronauts would long since have perished.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    alex_ said:

    Somebody tell me how the feck Truss's apparent big idea for tackling energy costs ie. tax cuts will help those most in need ie. those who pay little or no tax? And why using tax cuts to tackle what may be a temporary (but serious while it lasts) issue if prices start to revert to norm in a year or two, won't just leave a massive black hole in the public finances that the Govt won't find impossible to fill (because of an ideological aversion to raising taxes)?

    One might almost suspect that the idea is to use energy prices as a cover story for delivering the tax regime that she desires and couldn't otherwise justify...

    It's as if she's comprehensively answering all the questions she'd like to be asked.
    And telling us all to be patient for the answers we need.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,415
    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    This is a rather good read -

    https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/in-the-bleak-midwinter

    Fundamentally:

    - The market for energy in Europe has failed
    - Continuing with a free market for energy will result in economic ruin - poverty, a collapse in domestic spending, mass bankruptcies for SMEs.
    - The government will *have* to bail everyone out, whether they want to or not.

    And the concluding paragraph:

    "Once the government has accepted that it can’t allocate energy using a price mechanism, then the only option left will be energy rationing. The politics of that are going to be exceptionally difficult."
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 220
    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    There was a poll only last month that had 12% of the public think electric bills will go down this winter. There's going to be some very surprised people around when the bills arrive.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Cartoonists are finished. This is remarkable



  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798

    Just catching up with reports of Laura Kuenssberg's Times interview. Lavishing praise on BigDog. Boris Johnson "tipped the balance" towards Brexit and if he hadn't won the 2019 Leadership context "Brexit might not have happened". Truss is a "great survivor" who has been "underestimated". I love the impartial BBC!

    I think she's probably right about all of those.

    "...did great things - terrible, yes, but great"

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    Corner shops and village shops too ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/28/rising-energy-costs-will-force-thousands-of-corner-shops-to-close
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    This is a rather good read -

    https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/in-the-bleak-midwinter

    Fundamentally:

    - The market for energy in Europe has failed
    - Continuing with a free market for energy will result in economic ruin - poverty, a collapse in domestic spending, mass bankruptcies for SMEs.
    - The government will *have* to bail everyone out, whether they want to or not.

    And the concluding paragraph:

    "Once the government has accepted that it can’t allocate energy using a price mechanism, then the only option left will be energy rationing. The politics of that are going to be exceptionally difficult."
    As Lilico has been saying repeatedly. If the price signal isn't used for demand then there will have to be rationing.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    pigeon said:

    CatMan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
    It's certainly going to make for a hell of a marketing campaign.

    "Drink sewage? No shit, Sherlock!"
    Not a new story, or indeed a new thing. It’s already happening.

    https://theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/poll/2013/may/10/water-health
    Urine is recycled on the Internation Space Station into water. Chris Hadfield says it's cleaner than most drinking water on Earth.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ2T9OJY1lg
    Piss recycling on the ISS is not the job of an English water company though. If it were, all the astronauts would long since have perished.
    A percentage of the water drunk in London comes from the Thames. The same Thames that goes through Oxford, reading etc where treated sewage goes back into the Thames.

    Nothing new in this.

    Next thing people will be upset by fish poo in reservoirs.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    edited August 2022
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Look at that difference between Remain and Leave. Remainers probably want us locked down forever. What is wrong with them?

    Is that the dumbest post of the day? It comes so easily to you, and I've been trying so hard all day!
    I was being provocative. It seems to have worked


    But it is an intriguing difference. So many ultra lockdowners on Twitter are also angry Remoaners. Why?
    It's odd. Using generalities to their limit leavers were older and more vulnerable to Covid. Remainers were younger and less so. Lockdown had much more negative effects on younger people in work. The effect on the retired was much less severe. And yet there is a clear difference.

    I would tentatively suggest that remainers tend to a more pro government position. They like more regulation, whether from the EU or their own government. They don't trust others to behave as sensibly as they consider they do themselves.
    Something in this. Remaining in the EU and lockdowns were the sensible options. More precisely, they were the empirical options, ie choices that are based on evidence suggesting specific outcomes. Staying in the EU would result in more trade and investment than leaving therefore greater prosperity; lockdowns prevent exponential increase in infections and large loss of life.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,893

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    This is a rather good read -

    https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/in-the-bleak-midwinter

    Fundamentally:

    - The market for energy in Europe has failed
    - Continuing with a free market for energy will result in economic ruin - poverty, a collapse in domestic spending, mass bankruptcies for SMEs.
    - The government will *have* to bail everyone out, whether they want to or not.

    And the concluding paragraph:

    "Once the government has accepted that it can’t allocate energy using a price mechanism, then the only option left will be energy rationing. The politics of that are going to be exceptionally difficult."
    As Lilico has been saying repeatedly. If the price signal isn't used for demand then there will have to be rationing.

    Either way, good for global warming. Rejoice.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    Leon said:

    Cartoonists are finished. This is remarkable



    Nah, Matt is only finished when says he is. It’s not the drawing of the image, it’s the humour behind it. AI doing that yet?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232
    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    If it comes to that, much of the rest of commerce and industry, and a large fraction of the general population along with it, will also be reduced to penury or (quite literally, in many cases,) killed off. This suggests that it won't come to that - but as to whether Truss will immediately shit on the barking mad loons who vote her in on a dismantle the state (except for our pensions) prospectus, or try to pursue an active programme of Schumpeterian creative destruction for several months before the mass rioting and the burning of Parliament force her to do something useful to help the situation, who can say?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,893
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    Cartoonists are finished. This is remarkable



    Tony Blair x Dorian Gray?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816
    pigeon said:

    CatMan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
    It's certainly going to make for a hell of a marketing campaign.

    "Drink sewage? No shit, Sherlock!"
    Not a new story, or indeed a new thing. It’s already happening.

    https://theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/poll/2013/may/10/water-health
    Urine is recycled on the Internation Space Station into water. Chris Hadfield says it's cleaner than most drinking water on Earth.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ2T9OJY1lg
    Piss recycling on the ISS is not the job of an English water company though. If it were, all the astronauts would long since have perished.
    Well I can't argue with that.

    But on a related space matter, Artemis 1 is due to launch tomorrow. If all goes to plan, in 2 years there will be Human Beings going around the Moon, and then landing on the Moon a year later.
  • Leon said:

    I hope you all realise I am creating these photos ex nihilo in about 7 seconds. The power of modern AI is fucking incredible

    It is gonna change the world and then some

    "Ilford station refurb nearing completion, as seen in August 2022."

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Leon said:

    I hope you all realise I am creating these photos ex nihilo in about 7 seconds. The power of modern AI is fucking incredible

    It is gonna change the world and then some

    "Ilford station refurb nearing completion, as seen in August 2022."

    I'm gonna put that in! See what we get. Here goes...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    edited August 2022
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Calvine UFO photo


    An interview with a Scottish photographer who saw all six images

    https://twitter.com/the_jandashow/status/1561374479464517642?s=20&t=0ckT2y-NECV25SaJGx8wyA


    He is really quite convincing that this is a secret US stealth craft, floating in the sky. It explains almost everything

    So all the debunkers saying "rock in a loch", "reflection", "hanging ornament", "mountaintop" are wrong, and badly wrong. Equally the UFOlogists convinced it is aliens are also wrong. Or so it seems

    But WTF is that US tech?!



    An interview with a photographer who claims to have seen all six photos. Very important distinction. You are so gullible at times.
    DUH

    Do some research. Watch that interview. The only non alien explanation that makes any sense is secret US tech

    All the debunking theories have been debunked ("rock in a loch" etc). The idea it is some hugely elaborate 30 year long conspiracy is more far fetched than a US stealth craft

    There is an ex-US base Machrihanish on the west coast of Scotland which fits this thesis exactly. The US is known to test new craft/tech on allies like the UK, to see how they perform in "action" - before using them against actual enemies. The planes are Tornadoes not Harriers, which explains the lack of Harriers in the records

    This explains all the behaviour of the MoD, the letter to the US defence dept, and so on
    Why did no one in Scotland see this? Where are the other five alleged photos
    . Where are the negatives?

    Fuck it, you may be right, but if they had that kind of tech back then, where is it now?

    I am always sceptical when I hear - there are better videos or photos. They NEVER turn up. Until I see otherwise I don’t believe the other five photos are real. When I see them, I’ll think again.
    Other people have seen it - in Scotland


    That interview with the photographer is insanely long and detailed - I'm giving you a precis - but it is by far the most comprehensive, convincing explanation I have heard.

    Incidentally "US tech" is the conclusion reached by the guy who spent years tracking down this photo - David Clark. And he was a definite skeptic before he found the image: calling it a hoax. Now he says "US tech"

    Until a better explanation comes along - and I doubt that it will - that's my assumption

    The US tech hypothesis also explains why the photos disappeared. A D Notice went out, suppressing the story. The tech was/is secret
    The USA is a vast country covered in literally millions of acres of wilderness. The whole of the U.K. is about as big as a small to medium sized state like Oregon. Scotland is about the same size as, I dunno…West Virginia at a guess. There are huge spaces, airbases and testing facilities galore in the lower 48 alone, before you even start on the great frozen north of Alaska.

    So what’s the logical thing to do with this ultra secret tech? Yeah, they’ll come and test it in Scotland. Perhaps the pilots wanted to couple it with a golf weekend? Perhaps they wanted to show off to a couple of passing transatlantic airliners? Maybe this was taken in August and the test commander wanted to try out his new routine in a mid afternoon slot at the Tron? Maybe they are Scotch aficionados? Hibs fans? Or maybe this is just bollocks?

    There's also the small matter of the Machrihanish runway being oriented on Campbeltown about 3 km away, i.e. the town is unded the flight path for takeoffs to the east (when the wind is in that airt). Amdf more generally and there being no Area 51 type exclusion zone to keep the likes of JJ away, never mind the plane spotters. I can't see how the thing could have had anything to do with that airfield and flown north along the Great Glen without rather more folk seeing it ...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    edited August 2022
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
    Straightforwardly, this is the EU's strategy. No new water infrastructure (including reservoirs) people must instead be 'educated' that water is scarce. Until the inevitable winter floods, then they need to be told it's a climate-related disaster.

    We are out of the EU now, but we will not truly benefit until this dispicable man and those like him have been cleansed from the system, preferably using the semi-treated sewage he seems so fond of.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,893
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I hope you all realise I am creating these photos ex nihilo in about 7 seconds. The power of modern AI is fucking incredible

    It is gonna change the world and then some

    "Ilford station refurb nearing completion, as seen in August 2022."

    I'm gonna put that in! See what we get. Here goes...
    I'd tread carefully with "nearing completion".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    This is a rather good read -

    https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/in-the-bleak-midwinter

    Fundamentally:

    - The market for energy in Europe has failed
    - Continuing with a free market for energy will result in economic ruin - poverty, a collapse in domestic spending, mass bankruptcies for SMEs.
    - The government will *have* to bail everyone out, whether they want to or not.

    And the concluding paragraph:

    "Once the government has accepted that it can’t allocate energy using a price mechanism, then the only option left will be energy rationing. The politics of that are going to be exceptionally difficult."

    If the Government doesn’t somehow act, this pub could see a £250k yearly electric bill when the electric tariff expires middle of 2023.

    https://twitter.com/EssexPR/status/1563875496525545472
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,911

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    This is a rather good read -

    https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/in-the-bleak-midwinter

    Fundamentally:

    - The market for energy in Europe has failed
    - Continuing with a free market for energy will result in economic ruin - poverty, a collapse in domestic spending, mass bankruptcies for SMEs.
    - The government will *have* to bail everyone out, whether they want to or not.

    And the concluding paragraph:

    "Once the government has accepted that it can’t allocate energy using a price mechanism, then the only option left will be energy rationing. The politics of that are going to be exceptionally difficult."
    As Lilico has been saying repeatedly. If the price signal isn't used for demand then there will have to be rationing.

    It's a truism. Market prices are an allocation mechanism. And every allocation mechanism implies a shadow price; but whether it is determined by the aggregation of individual demands or by a bureaucracy is the issue.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    This is a rather good read -

    https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/in-the-bleak-midwinter

    Fundamentally:

    - The market for energy in Europe has failed
    - Continuing with a free market for energy will result in economic ruin - poverty, a collapse in domestic spending, mass bankruptcies for SMEs.
    - The government will *have* to bail everyone out, whether they want to or not.

    And the concluding paragraph:

    "Once the government has accepted that it can’t allocate energy using a price mechanism, then the only option left will be energy rationing. The politics of that are going to be exceptionally difficult."
    As Lilico has been saying repeatedly. If the price signal isn't used for demand then there will have to be rationing.

    That rather depends whether there's sufficient supply available (but it's very expensive) or there's literally not enough to go around. The former and Governments will have to find a way to pay for it. The latter, and there will be blackouts - and Government ministers and MPs will then pay for it with their jobs.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    edited August 2022
    CatMan said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh well. If electricity bills larger than mortgages and rolling blackouts throughout the Winter don't finish us off, then drinking semi-treated sewage collected from sputtering standpipes in the street during the Monster Heatwave Drought Catastrophe of Summer 2023 ought to manage it.

    "You English and your sense of humour! How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item...for you, the basis of an entire culture!"
    I hope you don't think I'm joking about the semi-treated sewage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/28/britons-need-to-be-less-squeamish-about-drinking-water-from-sewage-says-agency-head

    It's almost guaranteed they'll make a half-arsed job of it. Literally. Anyone for a nice glass of delicious gourmet Thames Water, now with the unmistakeable flavour of salmonella, shit-covered bog roll particles and used condom spunk?
    It's certainly going to make for a hell of a marketing campaign.

    "Drink sewage? No shit, Sherlock!"
    Not a new story, or indeed a new thing. It’s already happening.

    https://theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/poll/2013/may/10/water-health
    Urine is recycled on the Internation Space Station into water. Chris Hadfield says it's cleaner than most drinking water on Earth.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ2T9OJY1lg
    He was taking the piss.
  • "Interior of Bond Street station Hanover Square concourse, as seen in August 2022"


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,506
    darkage said:

    alex_ said:

    Somebody tell me how the feck Truss's apparent big idea for tackling energy costs ie. tax cuts will help those most in need ie. those who pay little or no tax? And why using tax cuts to tackle what may be a temporary (but serious while it lasts) issue if prices start to revert to norm in a year or two, won't just leave a massive black hole in the public finances that the Govt won't find impossible to fill (because of an ideological aversion to raising taxes)?

    One might almost suspect that the idea is to use energy prices as a cover story for delivering the tax regime that she desires and couldn't otherwise justify...

    Whatever she is promising now, it is going to be quite hard to follow through on tax cuts, because that also involves cutting spending. She hasn't really said where she would cut spending, but came up with some bizarre ideas about cutting pay for public sector workers in the north of England and also slashing civil service diversity officer jobs. So it actually just seems like 'tax cuts' are being proposed as a way to win the leadership election, and will be forgotten the moment she starts out in office. I don't think there is any ideological agenda at play.
    Maybe. Or maybe she will implement "temporary" tax cuts funded out of borrowing, justified on the basis that they are being used to meet a temporary problem (high energy prices). The idea being that once they get the tax cuts through the door, they can come up with some bullsh*t figures in a year or so showing how the tax cuts have "paid for themselves" due to increased economic activity and magically they make them permanent.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768


  • glwglw Posts: 8,876
    alex_ said:

    Somebody tell me how the feck Truss's apparent big idea for tackling energy costs ie. tax cuts will help those most in need ie. those who pay little or no tax? And why using tax cuts to tackle what may be a temporary (but serious while it lasts) issue if prices start to revert to norm in a year or two, won't just leave a massive black hole in the public finances that the Govt won't find impossible to fill (because of an ideological aversion to raising taxes)?

    One might almost suspect that the idea is to use energy prices as a cover story for delivering the tax regime that she desires and couldn't otherwise justify...

    You have to consider the possibility that Liz Truss is in fact dangerously stupid.

    We appear to be barrelling towards a bloody huge crisis and the next PM is proposing policies that will not work. Someone needs to explain to Truss that like happened to Boris, any ambitions she had for what she might do as PM have been blown out of the water by events. She and the PM that will likely shortly follow her are going to be fire fighting for the next few years, not playing at rebuilding the nation.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,244
    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    The latest group pleading for help are independent betting shop owners who are claiming seven figure rises in energy bills across their estates.

    This will also impact on the likes of Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Hills but presumably they have the funds.

    The argument for closing betting shops early and scrapping floodlit horse and greyhound racing from November 1st looks very strong.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232
    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768
    No prizes for guessing which income cohorts predominate amongst the Tory party membership.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    edited August 2022
    darkage said:

    alex_ said:

    Somebody tell me how the feck Truss's apparent big idea for tackling energy costs ie. tax cuts will help those most in need ie. those who pay little or no tax? And why using tax cuts to tackle what may be a temporary (but serious while it lasts) issue if prices start to revert to norm in a year or two, won't just leave a massive black hole in the public finances that the Govt won't find impossible to fill (because of an ideological aversion to raising taxes)?

    One might almost suspect that the idea is to use energy prices as a cover story for delivering the tax regime that she desires and couldn't otherwise justify...

    Whatever she is promising now, it is going to be quite hard to follow through on tax cuts, because that also involves cutting spending. She hasn't really said where she would cut spending, but came up with some bizarre ideas about cutting pay for public sector workers in the north of England and also slashing civil service diversity officer jobs. So it actually just seems like 'tax cuts' are being proposed as a way to win the leadership election, and will be forgotten the moment she starts out in office. I don't think there is any ideological agenda at play.
    Or maybe she's just trying to win a leadership election (that's already in the bag) by offering tax cuts to Tory party members at the expense of people who don't even vote Tory.

    I don't think it's at all difficult to understand. It's just a simplistic and self-seeking response by a very stupid person to an intrinsically very difficult problem.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    edited August 2022
    stodge said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    The latest group pleading for help are independent betting shop owners who are claiming seven figure rises in energy bills across their estates.

    This will also impact on the likes of Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Hills but presumably they have the funds.

    The argument for closing betting shops early and scrapping floodlit horse and greyhound racing from November 1st looks very strong.
    There was some talk plenty of football clubs aren't in the rudest health. A ban on midweek games in lower divisions could be a possibility.
    Two of the 12 Premiership RU clubs are in serious trouble. Rumours of two others too.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768


    Sunak's is by far the most sensible and affordable, It just needs beefed up a bit to deal with the second round of increases. SKS's is ludicrously expensive and unaffordable and Truss's is nothing short of perverse.
    If you think it's perverse, overlay it on the profile of the people who are eligible to vote in the leadership election and see what you think then.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Prediction: Starmer will face Johnson at GE 2024/5


  • glwglw Posts: 8,876
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768


    Sunak's is by far the most sensible and affordable, It just needs beefed up a bit to deal with the second round of increases. SKS's is ludicrously expensive and unaffordable and Truss's is nothing short of perverse.
    Sunak's plan is a piss in the ocean compared to what might be needed, but at least he's pissing in the right place.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,878
    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768


    Sunak's is by far the most sensible and affordable, It just needs beefed up a bit to deal with the second round of increases. SKS's is ludicrously expensive and unaffordable and Truss's is nothing short of perverse.
    If you think it's perverse, overlay it on the profile of the people who are eligible to vote in the leadership election and see what you think then.
    A very significant proportion of Tory support comes from CDE groups who are getting almost nothing out of these tax cuts. Admittedly the profile of those who are actually voting members is probably more prosperous.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    Prediction: Starmer will face Johnson at GE 2024/5

    Please, somebody, make it stop.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 220
    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    The latest group pleading for help are independent betting shop owners who are claiming seven figure rises in energy bills across their estates.

    This will also impact on the likes of Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Hills but presumably they have the funds.

    The argument for closing betting shops early and scrapping floodlit horse and greyhound racing from November 1st looks very strong.
    There was some talk plenty of football clubs aren't in the rudest health. A ban on midweek games in lower divisions could be a possibility.
    Two of the 12 Premiership RU clubs are in serious trouble. Rumours of two others too.
    In the 1973/74 season there were plenty of midweek games played with a 2pm kickoff to avoid using the floodlights.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768


    Sunak's is by far the most sensible and affordable, It just needs beefed up a bit to deal with the second round of increases. SKS's is ludicrously expensive and unaffordable and Truss's is nothing short of perverse.
    If you think it's perverse, overlay it on the profile of the people who are eligible to vote in the leadership election and see what you think then.
    A very significant proportion of Tory support comes from CDE groups who are getting almost nothing out of these tax cuts. Admittedly the profile of those who are actually voting members is probably more prosperous.
    Well, I did say "people who are eligible to vote in the leadership election".

    In fairness, perhaps I should have said "short-sighted" as well as "simplistic" and "stupid", but I thought the point was clear enough.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,827
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768


    Sunak's is by far the most sensible and affordable, It just needs beefed up a bit to deal with the second round of increases. SKS's is ludicrously expensive and unaffordable and Truss's is nothing short of perverse.
    That's a bad graph. What does Poorest mean vs Richest?

    I won't believe that's Truss's actual plan until she actually has the power to make an official announcement. I shall assume it is all just noise until that point.

    If it does turn out to be her plan then any required preparations to survive riots should be made.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    I am afraid to say that


    "Ilford station refurb nearing completion, as seen in August 2022."

    does not produce very exciting results

    So I did "Boris Johnson sucking a rabbit" and got this




    Some major flaws there, in the hands and eyes, etc. But remember, these flaws are built in. The models are trained so they CANNOT do faces and body parts well, and they completely reject anything sexual, porno, bloody, etc. But that is nonetheless a pretty good Boris, at least attempting to suck a rabbit

    What happens when these machines are let off the leash? Because someone will do that. In China if not here. We will be flooded with completely plausible fake images of outrageous things. Images will be entirely devalued. Photographers and artists might as well retire
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited August 2022
    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    This is a rather good read -

    https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/in-the-bleak-midwinter

    Fundamentally:

    - The market for energy in Europe has failed
    - Continuing with a free market for energy will result in economic ruin - poverty, a collapse in domestic spending, mass bankruptcies for SMEs.
    - The government will *have* to bail everyone out, whether they want to or not.

    And the concluding paragraph:

    "Once the government has accepted that it can’t allocate energy using a price mechanism, then the only option left will be energy rationing. The politics of that are going to be exceptionally difficult."
    More or less what I argued a day or so back.
    With rather more detail than me. :smile:
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    Leon said:


    So I did "Boris Johnson sucking a rabbit" and got this

    Is that really the most interesting thing you could imagine Boris Johnson sucking?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    edited August 2022
    It's amazing how business costs, barely discussed a week ago, are now front and centre of attention.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    Prediction: Starmer will face Johnson at GE 2024/5


    ...and Johnson will smash it out of the park.

    Don't forget the economy only went to hell in a handcart after Johnson appeared to leave office. It wouldn't surprise me if this had been his cunning plan all along.

    He will return cleansed.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,415
    Nigelb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    70% of pubs don't expect to survive the winter.
    It is gonna change the world and then some.
    I don't think folk have got their heads round all this yet at all.

    This is a rather good read -

    https://duncanweldon.substack.com/p/in-the-bleak-midwinter

    Fundamentally:

    - The market for energy in Europe has failed
    - Continuing with a free market for energy will result in economic ruin - poverty, a collapse in domestic spending, mass bankruptcies for SMEs.
    - The government will *have* to bail everyone out, whether they want to or not.

    And the concluding paragraph:

    "Once the government has accepted that it can’t allocate energy using a price mechanism, then the only option left will be energy rationing. The politics of that are going to be exceptionally difficult."
    More or less what I argued a day or so back.
    With rather more detail than me. :smile:
    Yep.

    I think it is obvious at this point that a) the government is going to have to step in with massive bailouts and b) there isn't enough energy at *any* price for this winter, which will mean some kind of rationing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Chris said:

    Leon said:


    So I did "Boris Johnson sucking a rabbit" and got this

    Is that really the most interesting thing you could imagine Boris Johnson sucking?
    Clearly not. But that's about as far as you can go before the model says NO and you are threatened with a ban
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768


    Sunak's is by far the most sensible and affordable, It just needs beefed up a bit to deal with the second round of increases. SKS's is ludicrously expensive and unaffordable and Truss's is nothing short of perverse.
    Sunak's plan is inadequate for the bottom half of the income table and is also complex. There is a simple solution that would get us most of the way. Simple cap, per Starmer's model; increased tax at higher incomes to compensate for those that don't need to be subsidised.

    Problem is the aversion to any idea of higher taxes within the government, even when they make sense.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cuts in VAT and business rates won't cut it at all.



    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1562854458299936768


    Sunak's is by far the most sensible and affordable, It just needs beefed up a bit to deal with the second round of increases. SKS's is ludicrously expensive and unaffordable and Truss's is nothing short of perverse.
    Doing nothing much except tinker at the margins is what is really unaffordable long term.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,878
    Eabhal said:

    Just catching up with reports of Laura Kuenssberg's Times interview. Lavishing praise on BigDog. Boris Johnson "tipped the balance" towards Brexit and if he hadn't won the 2019 Leadership context "Brexit might not have happened". Truss is a "great survivor" who has been "underestimated". I love the impartial BBC!

    I think she's probably right about all of those.

    "...did great things - terrible, yes, but great"

    Does the likes of Ollivander get a vote in this?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Someone please tell me if I'm wrong, but I have the impression that the best climate models and projections didn't really have "all the rivers are gonna dry up, like now-ish" in there
    https://twitter.com/davelevitan/status/1563685839019851777

    Ok but you must have missed this super scientifically accurate timeline that was recently published…
    https://twitter.com/catgyoung/status/1563783729490829313
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    alex_ said:

    darkage said:

    alex_ said:

    Somebody tell me how the feck Truss's apparent big idea for tackling energy costs ie. tax cuts will help those most in need ie. those who pay little or no tax? And why using tax cuts to tackle what may be a temporary (but serious while it lasts) issue if prices start to revert to norm in a year or two, won't just leave a massive black hole in the public finances that the Govt won't find impossible to fill (because of an ideological aversion to raising taxes)?

    One might almost suspect that the idea is to use energy prices as a cover story for delivering the tax regime that she desires and couldn't otherwise justify...

    Whatever she is promising now, it is going to be quite hard to follow through on tax cuts, because that also involves cutting spending. She hasn't really said where she would cut spending, but came up with some bizarre ideas about cutting pay for public sector workers in the north of England and also slashing civil service diversity officer jobs. So it actually just seems like 'tax cuts' are being proposed as a way to win the leadership election, and will be forgotten the moment she starts out in office. I don't think there is any ideological agenda at play.
    Maybe. Or maybe she will implement "temporary" tax cuts funded out of borrowing, justified on the basis that they are being used to meet a temporary problem (high energy prices). The idea being that once they get the tax cuts through the door, they can come up with some bullsh*t figures in a year or so showing how the tax cuts have "paid for themselves" due to increased economic activity and magically they make them permanent.
    There is no difficulty in selling tax cuts to anyone though, everyone (who pays tax) benefits from them. In isolation it isn't a difficult policy - unlike spending cuts, where there are always definite losers. If people think that there can be tax cuts with no other consequences, then they are living in a clown world.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,190
    Even if "don't do a great deal" was an option now (which it isn't, in effect) it definitely won't be an option when the price cap inevitably rises again to circa 5 or 6 grand. If Truss can't see that, and why it's better to get in on a proper solution sooner rather than later when half the country is fomenting revolution, then she's an idiot.
This discussion has been closed.