Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Could Liz Truss be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

1246

Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    Apparently Sir Graham Brady insisted on a contest lasting all summer so he could go on holiday.

    He couldn't be expecting a challenge to the new leader quite so quickly, surely ?
  • Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If
    they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't
    she?
    To be honest it was broad brush general theorising based on ignorance re the LDs.

    I think there are Tory MPs like Alex Chalk who are relatively moderate and not disgusting to the non Tory vote.

    Whilst I imagine LD PPCs would be pissed off if they were dropped there are possibly current sitting moderate Tories in LD target seats where the LD calculation might be that they have experience to an extent and the coup factor as well as the message it sends “ the LDs are the home of sensible centrist former Tories” is worth the disgruntlement.

    Re your last sentence I think any Tory MP who is any good will not be on the radar for advancement with a Truss gov - it’s going to be true believers only I fear!

    Really just idle basic speculation as I was thinking this morning for the first time that since I have been politically aware from a young age it’s truly the first time I haven’t instinctively wanted a Tory gov at next election. I’ve been tribal all my life and was even in 97. Now however I find myself actually disliking a lot of what the current Tory party stand for so if the Lib Dems became a centre right party whilst the Tories tacked further right it would be interesting.

    That's an interesting post.
    I've had a couple of acquaintances recently express similar opinions IRL.

    +1. Voted tory 1979 and ever since. No longer.
    I'm halfway there in that i dont really care what happens to the Tories but im still actively hoping against a Labour government.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter

    Which, if it is the case, means the medium term survival of the EU is in doubt
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    The chat and gossip about how awful Truss will be as PM reminds me of the chat and gossip about Nicola Sturgeon. Driven by dislike and hatred of her party and goals. Elements of misogyny. Sour grapes from people who think their group should be running the party. Fear that she might - just might - end up being good and get things done that they don't want to happen. Playing the woman not the ball. It's not the best level of discussion on PB.

    Eh ?
    When the question is the likely suitability of a politician for the office of PM, how is that not 'playing the ball' ?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    There's little talk at the moment about Tory vs Lib Dem rural seats. The Australia trade deal and Truss's remarks on London could be a potent combination.
  • Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If
    they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't
    she?
    To be honest it was broad brush general theorising based on ignorance re the LDs.

    I think there are Tory MPs like Alex Chalk who are relatively moderate and not disgusting to the non Tory vote.

    Whilst I imagine LD PPCs would be pissed off if they were dropped there are possibly current sitting moderate Tories in LD target seats where the LD calculation might be that they have experience to an extent and the coup factor as well as the message it sends “ the LDs are the home of sensible centrist former Tories” is worth the disgruntlement.

    Re your last sentence I think any Tory MP who is any good will not be on the radar for advancement with a Truss gov - it’s going to be true believers only I fear!

    Really just idle basic speculation as I was thinking this morning for the first time that since I have been politically aware from a young age it’s truly the first time I haven’t instinctively wanted a Tory gov at next election. I’ve been tribal all my life and was even in 97. Now however I find myself actually disliking a lot of what the current Tory party stand for so if the Lib Dems became a centre right party whilst the Tories tacked further right it would be interesting.

    That's an interesting post.
    I've had a couple of acquaintances recently express similar opinions IRL.

    There is a lot of overlap between the right side of the Lib Dems and the left side of the Tory party - historically where I see myself. The Coalition was the embodiment of that. The Conservative government enacted policies lifted from Labour from 2015 onwards - I wondered if that reflected that the Overton Window for economic policies had shifted leftwards and the we were just recognising that. What I see now in the party is a pendulum shift back towards more of our historic areas - but not a huge shift. Personally I'm reasonable comfortable with a pro-business one Nation policy position, but want to see specifics. What is clear is that the energy price shifts will focus minds dramatically and I expect that excessive government taxes on fuel will have to be suspended over the winter. Force majeure conditions.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    edited August 2022

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    The Azov thing, with the reference to Duke of Edinburgh awards, is probably a reference to this story (obviously, what Truss proposed is illegal):-
    Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60544838
    She was wrong on that, and she fell into a bear trap set by Lavrov when he asked her to confirm Russian sovereignty over two places (in Russia) and she refused to do so, supposing them to be in Ukraine. So it would be wrong to say her Premiership will be without mis-steps, usually verbal ones. But on the other side, there does seem to be a workmanlike grinding out of results, which is the important thing. I can cope with some gaffes, if steadily the trade sitiation improves, steadily more oil-fields are exploited, more important projects move forward, taxes steadily decrease.
  • Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter

    Quite possibly. Though there was an IMF study recently that implied that the UK was likely to be worse hit than many, because of the shape of our energy market and rubbish insulation.

    And the UK government has its appointment with the noose/electorate sooner than many.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    The chat and gossip about how awful Truss will be as PM reminds me of the chat and gossip about Nicola Sturgeon. Driven by dislike and hatred of her party and goals. Elements of misogyny. Sour grapes from people who think their group should be running the party. Fear that she might - just might - end up being good and get things done that they don't want to happen. Playing the woman not the ball. It's not the best level of discussion on PB.

    I will say right now, Truss is not as talented a politician as Sturgeon - not as good a speaker, not as good an emotor. She can win sometimes by an unexpected blast of the blunderbuss of obviousness - like when someone at the hustings came at her accusing Boris of being the only PM to get an FPN and she replied saying he was the only one who was PM during Covid. :lol: But she's never going to be as good in that regard as Sturgeon.
  • There's little talk at the moment about Tory vs Lib Dem rural seats. The Australia trade deal and Truss's remarks on London could be a potent combination.

    It was noted that Liz Truss ducked out of meeting the National Farmers Union, although she since said she would go in September (once most of the votes are in).
  • Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter

    Quite possibly. Though there was an IMF study recently that implied that the UK was likely to be worse hit than many, because of the shape of our energy market and rubbish insulation.

    And the UK government has its appointment with the noose/electorate sooner than many.
    The articles really did not make that distinction though there is real alarm over the German economy
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter

    I think she can buck the trend by throwing some real red meat to the voters, I mean seriously authoritarian policies to a predominantly (under FPT) right wing electorate. Frost has some quite wild ideas in that respect.

    She needs to scapegoat the idle poor (except for Boris Johnson), asylum seekers, the Labour Party, the unions and public sector workers (except the Police). This worked for Mrs T.

    This would also cheer the likes of Leon and Casino as it has the double bubble effect of pissing off Guardian Liberals like me as well as ensuring electoral success.
  • Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter

    I think she can buck the trend by throwing some real red meat to the voters, I mean seriously authoritarian policies to a predominantly (under FPT) right wing electorate. Frost has some quite wild ideas in that respect.

    She needs to scapegoat the idle poor (except for Boris Johnson), asylum seekers, the Labour Party, the unions and public sector workers (except the Police). This worked for Mrs T.

    This would also cheer the likes of Leon and Casino as it has the double bubble effect of pissing off Guardian Liberals like me as well as ensuring electoral success.
    In what way is Boris idle poor ?

    Feckless rich is what he is.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    On topic, QTWTAIN
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258

    Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter

    I think she can buck the trend by throwing some real red meat to the voters, I mean seriously authoritarian policies to a predominantly (under FPT) right wing electorate. Frost has some quite wild ideas in that respect.

    She needs to scapegoat the idle poor (except for Boris Johnson), asylum seekers, the Labour Party, the unions and public sector workers (except the Police). This worked for Mrs T.

    This would also cheer the likes of Leon and Casino as it has the double bubble effect of pissing off Guardian Liberals like me as well as ensuring electoral success.
    In what way is Boris idle poor ?

    Feckless rich is what he is.
    Even those who are fully reconciled to Boris being a consistent and shameless liar assume that Boris asking for others to pay his bills suggests he is poor or at least cash poor. To me it solely suggests he prefers other people to pay for his shit and he may well be perfectly flush.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    Poor old Brillo, jumped ship and now GB News has joined the big boys (the big boys being those news outlets that right wing crackpot populists quote approvingly).




  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    2 more weeks of this utter garbage. God the Tory party are fecking useless.a full week and a half of doom from cap announcement until we even get a flash of thigh as to their response.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822

    Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter

    I think she can buck the trend by throwing some real red meat to the voters, I mean seriously authoritarian policies to a predominantly (under FPT) right wing electorate. Frost has some quite wild ideas in that respect.

    She needs to scapegoat the idle poor (except for Boris Johnson), asylum seekers, the Labour Party, the unions and public sector workers (except the Police). This worked for Mrs T.

    This would also cheer the likes of Leon and Casino as it has the double bubble effect of pissing off Guardian Liberals like me as well as ensuring electoral success.
    In what way is Boris idle poor ?

    Feckless rich is what he is.
    Feckless in the sense he doesn't give a feck about anyone outside his class and gene pool?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Good afternoon

    Having read today's financial press re UK and Europe the conclusions seems to be that no government will survive the maelstrom that is about to hit their economies this autumn and winter

    I think she can buck the trend by throwing some real red meat to the voters, I mean seriously authoritarian policies to a predominantly (under FPT) right wing electorate. Frost has some quite wild ideas in that respect.

    She needs to scapegoat the idle poor (except for Boris Johnson), asylum seekers, the Labour Party, the unions and public sector workers (except the Police). This worked for Mrs T.

    This would also cheer the likes of Leon and Casino as it has the double bubble effect of pissing off Guardian Liberals like me as well as ensuring electoral success.
    In what way is Boris idle poor ?

    Feckless rich is what he is.
    Feckless in the sense he doesn't give a feck about anyone outside his class and gene poolmself?
    FTFY :smile:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    FINALLY, some decent work by a computer









  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,799

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    The Azov thing, with the reference to Duke of Edinburgh awards, is probably a reference to this story (obviously, what Truss proposed is illegal):-
    Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60544838
    She was wrong on that, and she fell into a bear trap set by Lavrov when he asked her to confirm Russian sovereignty over two places (in Russia) and she refused to do so, supposing them to be in Ukraine. So it would be wrong to say her Premiership will be without mis-steps, usually verbal ones. But on the other side, there does seem to be a workmanlike grinding out of results, which is the important thing. I can cope with some gaffes, if steadily the trade sitiation improves, steadily more oil-fields are exploited, more important projects move forward, taxes steadily decrease.
    On optimistic days I feel the same way. Truss strikes me as someone of limited imagination or ideas but someone who works hard and fairly ruthlessly to make sure what she has promised actually happens. In this respect she is the opposite of Boris who has ideas to spare but was never arsed to work them through to a result.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,799

    Poor old Brillo, jumped ship and now GB News has joined the big boys (the big boys being those news outlets that right wing crackpot populists quote approvingly).




    Not sure about the wisdom of treating the national broadcaster as the enemy. Even Sturgeon was concerned about the abuse hurled at a BBC reporter at Perth. At the Tories not so much of course.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?
  • This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    The Azov thing, with the reference to Duke of Edinburgh awards, is probably a reference to this story (obviously, what Truss proposed is illegal):-
    Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60544838
    She was wrong on that, and she fell into a bear trap set by Lavrov when he asked her to confirm Russian sovereignty over two places (in Russia) and she refused to do so, supposing them to be in Ukraine. So it would be wrong to say her Premiership will be without mis-steps, usually verbal ones. But on the other side, there does seem to be a workmanlike grinding out of results, which is the important thing. I can cope with some gaffes, if steadily the trade sitiation improves, steadily more oil-fields are exploited, more important projects move forward, taxes steadily decrease.
    On optimistic days I feel the same way. Truss strikes me as someone of limited imagination or ideas but someone who works hard and fairly ruthlessly to make sure what she has promised actually happens. In this respect she is the opposite of Boris who has ideas to spare but was never arsed to work them through to a result.
    Ultimately none of the pundit and commentator opinions of her will matter, it will be the public view of her that emerges from the chrysallis of those first few weeks and is taken forward. She gets a short window to shape things.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
    Si. Firenze

    I have brought my older daughter to Tuscany to teach her about the Renaissance. So far she is mildly impressed. But only mildly





    Get up San Miniato al Monte and take in the view over the city from the Graveyard. Can’t beat that.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    How much blame should be attached to William Hague for changing the rules on electing Tory leaders to allow the members a final say? I suppose he was leading a rump party and couldn't afford to lose lots of activists. We're moving to an increasingly Presidential-style leader where the President is chosen by a very small unrepresentative section of people. It's nuts.

    What do other countries with Parliamentary systems do? Aren’t many similar? Does it matter how big the party membership is?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    Poor old Brillo, jumped ship and now GB News has joined the big boys (the big boys being those news outlets that right wing crackpot populists quote approvingly).




    Already been done, already been around Twitter twice before the context of the joke was explained, the lack of an actual clip should be a red flag.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022

    This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    I find I am really bad at imagining normal seasonal change. If I am sitting out in broad daylight at 10pm in June it just feels impossible that in Dec it would have been dark for 6 hours. Conversely in Dec, Where is the zero, unimaginable summer?

    The negative prediction is effectively that Winter is coming. And it actually is.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    edited August 2022
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    The Azov thing, with the reference to Duke of Edinburgh awards, is probably a reference to this story (obviously, what Truss proposed is illegal):-
    Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60544838
    She was wrong on that, and she fell into a bear trap set by Lavrov when he asked her to confirm Russian sovereignty over two places (in Russia) and she refused to do so, supposing them to be in Ukraine. So it would be wrong to say her Premiership will be without mis-steps, usually verbal ones. But on the other side, there does seem to be a workmanlike grinding out of results, which is the important thing. I can cope with some gaffes, if steadily the trade sitiation improves, steadily more oil-fields are exploited, more important projects move forward, taxes steadily decrease.
    On optimistic days I feel the same way. Truss strikes me as someone of limited imagination or ideas but someone who works hard and fairly ruthlessly to make sure what she has promised actually happens. In this respect she is the opposite of Boris who has ideas to spare but was never arsed to work them through to a result.
    Or Cameron, who was the master of the good sounding but totally empty statement on the GMTV sofa. Cometh the hour, cometh the determined plodder. God speed to her is all we can say.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,039

    There's little talk at the moment about Tory vs Lib Dem rural seats. The Australia trade deal and Truss's remarks on London could be a potent combination.

    It was noted that Liz Truss ducked out of meeting the National Farmers Union, although she since said she would go in September (once most of the votes are in).
    The animal welfare sector, which was extremely nervous about her, has relaxed a bit now that Zac Goldsmith has endorsed her and said she'll deliver the promised ban on live exports.
  • This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,248
    One good reason why people may be spending is that real interest rates on saving are around minus ten per cent. I also wonder whether after corona time, people now expect a bailout for everything.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    DavidL said:

    Poor old Brillo, jumped ship and now GB News has joined the big boys (the big boys being those news outlets that right wing crackpot populists quote approvingly).




    Not sure about the wisdom of treating the national broadcaster as the enemy. Even Sturgeon was concerned about the abuse hurled at a BBC reporter at Perth. At the Tories not so much of course.
    On the latter point Sturgeon at one with the country, that country being the UK.

    https://twitter.com/VocalJoann/status/1560745071355432961?s=20&t=8kS_SkOqQaF1rQQX6NEkBw
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    The Azov thing, with the reference to Duke of Edinburgh awards, is probably a reference to this story (obviously, what Truss proposed is illegal):-
    Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60544838
    She was wrong on that, and she fell into a bear trap set by Lavrov when he asked her to confirm Russian sovereignty over two places (in Russia) and she refused to do so, supposing them to be in Ukraine. So it would be wrong to say her Premiership will be without mis-steps, usually verbal ones. But on the other side, there does seem to be a workmanlike grinding out of results, which is the important thing. I can cope with some gaffes, if steadily the trade sitiation improves, steadily more oil-fields are exploited, more important projects move forward, taxes steadily decrease.
    On optimistic days I feel the same way. Truss strikes me as someone of limited imagination or ideas but someone who works hard and fairly ruthlessly to make sure what she has promised actually happens. In this respect she is the opposite of Boris who has ideas to spare but was never arsed to work them through to a result.
    Or Cameron, who was the master of the good sounding but totally empty statement on the GMTV sofa. Cometh the hour, cometh the determined plodder. God speed to her is all we can say.
    "One must beware of anyone who is both stupid and hardworking; he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will always only cause damage." Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    I find I am really bad at imagining normal seasonal change. If I am sitting out in broad daylight at 10pm in June it just feels impossible that in Dec it would have been dark for 6 hours. Conversely in Dec, Where is the zero, unimaginable summer?

    The negative prediction is effectively that Winter is coming. And it actually is.
    Try living in Scotland, you'd be permanently discombobulated!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    'In Woking junction, until a late hour, trains were stopping and going on, others were shunting on the sidings, passengers were alighting and waiting, and everything was proceeding in the most ordinary way. A boy from the town, trenching on Smith's monopoly, was selling papers with the afternoon's news. The ringing impact of trucks, the sharp whistle of the engines from the junction, mingled with their shouts of “Men from Mars!” Excited men came into the station about nine o'clock with incredible tidings, and caused no more disturbance than drunkards might have done. People rattling Londonwards peered into the darkness outside the carriage windows, and saw only a rare, flickering, vanishing spark dance up from the direction of Horsell, a red glow and a thin veil of smoke driving across the stars, and thought that nothing more serious than a heath fire was happening. It was only round the edge of the common that any disturbance was perceptible.'
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    I find I am really bad at imagining normal seasonal change. If I am sitting out in broad daylight at 10pm in June it just feels impossible that in Dec it would have been dark for 6 hours. Conversely in Dec, Where is the zero, unimaginable summer?

    The negative prediction is effectively that Winter is coming. And it actually is.
    Try living in Scotland, you'd be permanently discombobulated!
    I have, North of Inverness. I was.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822

    Poor old Brillo, jumped ship and now GB News has joined the big boys (the big boys being those news outlets that right wing crackpot populists quote approvingly).




    Already been done, already been around Twitter twice before the context of the joke was explained, the lack of an actual clip should be a red flag.
    Trussy should have the word 'context' written on her heart, along with 'taken out of'.
    Of course going on GB News and comparing it favourably to the BBC could be considered fawning rather than a (shit) joke.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022

    This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
    Ok, fair enough, i thought you meant some 'event', but yes, i can see a Labour result towards 300 as a possible upper end atm
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    Poor old Brillo, jumped ship and now GB News has joined the big boys (the big boys being those news outlets that right wing crackpot populists quote approvingly).




    Already been done, already been around Twitter twice before the context of the joke was explained, the lack of an actual clip should be a red flag.
    Trussy should have the word 'context' written on her heart, along with 'taken out of'.
    Of course going on GB News and comparing it favourably to the BBC could be considered fawning rather than a (shit) joke.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/liz-truss-gb-news-hustings-b2149042.html

    Watch the full clip. It is a (bad) Trussian joke.

    There would be very little point in fawning to GB News, given that they have about 10 viewers.
  • This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
    Ok, fair enough, i thought you meant some 'event', but yes, i can see a Labour result towards 300 as a possible upper end atm
    Best result possible for Labour is a wafer thin majority.

    If that happened I think that would make Starmer the best seat winner in some time? Certainly would be achievement to turn a majority into another majority. Blair technically did it but Major was a minority Government in 1997
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    edited August 2022

    How much blame should be attached to William Hague for changing the rules on electing Tory leaders to allow the members a final say? I suppose he was leading a rump party and couldn't afford to lose lots of activists. We're moving to an increasingly Presidential-style leader where the President is chosen by a very small unrepresentative section of people. It's nuts.

    What do other countries with Parliamentary systems do? Aren’t many similar? Does it matter how big the party membership is?

    In Ireland the 2017 Fine Gael leadership election is the most recent parallel, where Varadkar was elected to replace Enda Kenny as Taoiseach. They used an electoral college, similar to Labour's most recent contest, but the members only have 25% of the vote, local councillors 10% and the TDs (and Senators and MEPs) the remaining 65%.

    Coveney won the membership by nearly 2-1, but Varadkar won among TDs/Senators/MEPs by an even wider margin, so by about 3-2 overall.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Fine_Gael_leadership_election

    Edit: Varadkar did so well among the elected party representatives that he didn't need a single vote from the party members to win.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,547

    This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
    Ok, fair enough, i thought you meant some 'event', but yes, i can see a Labour result towards 300 as a possible upper end atm
    Best result possible for Labour is a wafer thin majority.

    If that happened I think that would make Starmer the best seat winner in some time? Certainly would be achievement to turn a majority into another majority. Blair technically did it but Major was a minority Government in 1997
    The best possible result is a Lab/Lib government; the latter to provide the policy ideas that Keir seems to have trouble with and a hedge against the far left.
  • To go from a majority of 80 to no majority in one election would certainly show a clear rejection of the Tories
  • Poor old Brillo, jumped ship and now GB News has joined the big boys (the big boys being those news outlets that right wing crackpot populists quote approvingly).




    Already been done, already been around Twitter twice before the context of the joke was explained, the lack of an actual clip should be a red flag.
    Trussy should have the word 'context' written on her heart, along with 'taken out of'.
    Of course going on GB News and comparing it favourably to the BBC could be considered fawning rather than a (shit) joke.
    The fawning joke also meant she ducked what might have been an awkward question. although no doubt she'd already prepared an answer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    rcs1000 said:

    If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

    On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

    That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

    That's a fair summary.
  • This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
    Ok, fair enough, i thought you meant some 'event', but yes, i can see a Labour result towards 300 as a possible upper end atm
    Best result possible for Labour is a wafer thin majority.

    If that happened I think that would make Starmer the best seat winner in some time? Certainly would be achievement to turn a majority into another majority. Blair technically did it but Major was a minority Government in 1997
    The best possible result is a Lab/Lib government; the latter to provide the policy ideas that Keir seems to have trouble with and a hedge against the far left.
    I agree it’s the best outcome. And would result in PR probably
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

    On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

    That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

    What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?
    Russia does not appear to be winning. Maybe Putin will find his equivalent of Zhukov, and turn things around, but I doubt it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    To go from a majority of 80 to no majority in one election would certainly show a clear rejection of the Tories

    Yes, it would. Unless they are within single figures they should make no attempt to run a minority having been rejected and ejected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
    Si. Firenze

    I have brought my older daughter to Tuscany to teach her about the Renaissance. So far she is mildly impressed. But only mildly





    Get up San Miniato al Monte and take in the view over the city from the Graveyard. Can’t beat that.

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    I find I am really bad at imagining normal seasonal change. If I am sitting out in broad daylight at 10pm in June it just feels impossible that in Dec it would have been dark for 6 hours. Conversely in Dec, Where is the zero, unimaginable summer?

    The negative prediction is effectively that Winter is coming. And it actually is.
    That’s very true. I find winter literally unthinkable in summer. “What, we all sit inside and it gets dark at 3pm? Don’t be an idiot!”


    So maybe this is the same

    But for now I sit out on the steps of the Brancacci Chapel as my daughter eats gelato and everyone is happy in the Tuscan sun. Winter, pah!

  • This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
    Ok, fair enough, i thought you meant some 'event', but yes, i can see a Labour result towards 300 as a possible upper end atm
    Best result possible for Labour is a wafer thin majority.

    If that happened I think that would make Starmer the best seat winner in some time? Certainly would be achievement to turn a majority into another majority. Blair technically did it but Major was a minority Government in 1997
    The best possible result is a Lab/Lib government; the latter to provide the policy ideas that Keir seems to have trouble with and a hedge against the far left.
    I agree it’s the best outcome. And would result in PR probably
    Probably not. It is unlikely Labour would offer PR, and since the LibDems will have twice recently got into government without PR, there would be less reason for Ed Davey to insist on voting reform rather than more substantive policies.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    Dura_Ace said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

    On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

    That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

    What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?
    There is no "win".

    If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.
    There isn't the same linguistic and cultural distance that there was in Afghanistan. It'll be more like Chechnya. Resistance suppressed by empowering local warlords and criminals.
    Culturally, the invasion has united Russian speakers and Ukrainian speakers in loathing for their neighbour.

    Insurgencies, themselves, rarely win wars, but combined with conventional forces, they can be very damaging for the occupier.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460
    edited August 2022
    Has there been a recent assessment of what the notional Tory majority is with boundary changes? I have seen suggestions here that, after the 2019 (red wall etc.) realignment, it is lower than it would have been before.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, we have seen *exactly* the current scenario play out before.

    In 1973, upset with the US's support for Israel, OPEC announced it would cease selling oil to the US, and would impose strict quotas on oil production.

    It lurched the developed world into a seven year crisis.

    But at the end of it, the Western world had developed new energy sources (whether oil and gas from the North Sea or Alaska, or France's nuclear power programme), and had dramatically cut energy consumption. World oil demand bottomed out almost ten years after the initial shock, 15% below 1973 levels.

    We'll see exactly the same again: new sources of gas will be developed (Mozambique, for example), and the Western world will reduce its demand for natural gas, by building more renewables.

    Russia, when it starts exporting again, will be exporting into a very different world.

    By the mid 80's a lot of the big winners of the 70's were bankrupt.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

    On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

    That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

    What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?
    Russia does not appear to be winning. Maybe Putin will find his equivalent of Zhukov, and turn things around, but I doubt it.
    If, for whatever reason, the US stops providing military support, other allies of Ukraine will struggle to keep Ukraine supplied with ammunition, and Ukraine would be defeated.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022

    This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
    Ok, fair enough, i thought you meant some 'event', but yes, i can see a Labour result towards 300 as a possible upper end atm
    Best result possible for Labour is a wafer thin majority.

    If that happened I think that would make Starmer the best seat winner in some time? Certainly would be achievement to turn a majority into another majority. Blair technically did it but Major was a minority Government in 1997
    Yes, for an 'official' majority from the position in 2019, 124 gains, 28 more than Cameron in 2010, best since Attlee 1945 and just short of MacDonald 1929 (im ignoring the weird national government elections)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393

    This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Just before a new leader takes over is a particularly bad time to make predictions. We don't know how the opinion polls will be affected by the next PM.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    I think that people are more resilient than most of the commentariat like to imagine.

    Over the past hundred and a bit years, we've survived two world wars, the Great Depression, the oil shocks and accompanying recessions, the GFC, and Covid. And, we're about six times richer per head than we were at the start of it all. We'll pull through this.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022
    carnforth said:

    Has there been a recent assessment of what the notional Tory majority is with boundary changes? I have seen suggestions here that, after the 2019 (red wall etc.) realignment, it is lower than it would have been before.

    Boundary commission estimates Con maj 102 on 2019 result plus changes
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
    Ok, fair enough, i thought you meant some 'event', but yes, i can see a Labour result towards 300 as a possible upper end atm
    Best result possible for Labour is a wafer thin majority.

    If that happened I think that would make Starmer the best seat winner in some time? Certainly would be achievement to turn a majority into another majority. Blair technically did it but Major was a minority Government in 1997
    The best possible result is a Lab/Lib government; the latter to provide the policy ideas that Keir seems to have trouble with and a hedge against the far left.
    I agree it’s the best outcome. And would result in PR probably
    Probably not. It is unlikely Labour would offer PR, and since the LibDems will have twice recently got into government without PR, there would be less reason for Ed Davey to insist on voting reform rather than more substantive policies.
    All LibDems are very attached to PR. I wonder whether the sensible thing is not to go for the big prize of Commons electoral reform (and risk a repeat of the AV referendum), but to go for smaller prizes (with no referendums). AV for Mayoral elections/STV for local elections (as already in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and an option in Wales). Get as much of the country used to STV as possible. Or Lords reform with an elected component, which undoubtedly would entail some sort of PR.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

    On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

    That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

    What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?
    Russia does not appear to be winning. Maybe Putin will find his equivalent of Zhukov, and turn things around, but I doubt it.
    If, for whatever reason, the US stops providing military support, other allies of Ukraine will struggle to keep Ukraine supplied with ammunition, and Ukraine would be defeated.
    I doubt it would be defeated, even if Kyiv fell the Ukrainian resistance would bog the Russians down Vietnam or Afghanistan or Stalingrad style supported by enough ammunition from the West US involved or not
  • _Andy__Andy_ Posts: 9
    Ladbrokes have a market on neither Sunak or Truss heading Tories into next GE. Was 5/1 when I looked earlier
  • Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    You do write some overwrought bollocks.

    A recession, even a bad one, doesn't mean popular tourist spots become ghost-towns, or that nobody eats ice cream any more. It means that activity over the economy as a whole (of which tourism is one small part) declines, and we get less well off over a period of time. That's bad news, and for those in an already difficult economic position it's very bad news indeed, but it's not the end of days.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    This feels like a real 2010 moment for the Tories to me. It feels like the end.

    Time for Labour with LD support, competent Government back

    Howso? 2010 was nearly 3 years after Blair had been replaced and 18 months after the financial crisis. And, as noted before, unless the LDs outperform their current polling the window for Lab/LD may be very narrow. And SKS has ruled out any deal with the LDs, so any 'support' would be policy by policy
    I think Labour will get over 300 MPs, possibly around the 310 mark.
    Ok, fair enough, i thought you meant some 'event', but yes, i can see a Labour result towards 300 as a possible upper end atm
    Best result possible for Labour is a wafer thin majority.

    If that happened I think that would make Starmer the best seat winner in some time? Certainly would be achievement to turn a majority into another majority. Blair technically did it but Major was a minority Government in 1997
    The best possible result is a Lab/Lib government; the latter to provide the policy ideas that Keir seems to have trouble with and a hedge against the far left.
    I agree it’s the best outcome. And would result in PR probably
    Probably not. It is unlikely Labour would offer PR, and since the LibDems will have twice recently got into government without PR, there would be less reason for Ed Davey to insist on voting reform rather than more substantive policies.
    All LibDems are very attached to PR. I wonder whether the sensible thing is not to go for the big prize of Commons electoral reform (and risk a repeat of the AV referendum), but to go for smaller prizes (with no referendums). AV for Mayoral elections/STV for local elections (as already in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and an option in Wales). Get as much of the country used to STV as possible. Or Lords reform with an elected component, which undoubtedly would entail some sort of PR.
    Certainly if your aim is eventual PR for Westmibster thats how you do it. A referendum 'now' could lose and thats that for probably 25 years (2 referenda lost on changes in 10 to 15 years).
    Or a second house with actual power (albeit less than the Commons) elected by PR
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709

    Penddu2 said:

    Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

    Frost is an English nationalist. For all his utter ridiculousness and lack of seriousness, he expresses what is now the dominant view inside the Conservative party. The SNP and Plaid Cymru will be absolutely delighted.

    Correct.

    Frost is a boon. More please. Much more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491
    edited August 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    All fine but for the first. Being mocked by enemy FMs cannot be taken as proof of a problem, that would be very foolish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    edited August 2022

    Penddu2 said:

    Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

    Frost is an English nationalist. For all his utter ridiculousness and lack of seriousness, he expresses what is now the dominant view inside the Conservative party. The SNP and Plaid Cymru will be absolutely delighted.

    Correct.

    Frost is a boon. More please. Much more.
    Frost is a Unionist, he does not even back an English parliament let alone English independence but wants Westminster supremacy reasserted.

    As long as we have a Tory majority government the SNP can do sod all, the future of the Union remains reserved to Westminster and it will continue to refuse indyref2
  • Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    You do write some overwrought bollocks.

    A recession, even a bad one, doesn't mean popular tourist spots become ghost-towns, or that nobody eats ice cream any more. It means that activity over the economy as a whole (of which tourism is one small part) declines, and we get less well off over a period of time. That's bad news, and for those in an already difficult economic position it's very bad news indeed, but it's not the end of days.
    Plus reduced damage for tourism or luxury goods will lead to their price falling thus benefiting those who don't have financial difficulties.

    There are always plenty of people who do well in a recession and likewise those who continue to struggle during strong economic growth.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    Bit of a drop since the last election. Adding up the South East and South West to get a comparable "rest of South" from last time, they led by 31% in 2019. Going from that to a statistical dead heat is a heck of a change.
    Indeed. Even an 8% MoE is not much of a Con comfort blanket when a 31 point lead has disappeared.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709
    HYUFD said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

    Frost is an English nationalist. For all his utter ridiculousness and lack of seriousness, he expresses what is now the dominant view inside the Conservative party. The SNP and Plaid Cymru will be absolutely delighted.

    Correct.

    Frost is a boon. More please. Much more.
    Frost is a Unionist, he does not even back an English parliament let alone English independence but wants Westminster supremacy reasserted.

    As long as we have a Tory majority government the SNP can do sod all, the future of the Union remains reserved to Westminster and it will continue to refuse indyref2
    You are a boon. More please. Much more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    Even Boris Johnson didnt trust JRM to be in the Cabinet until he made up a Brexit opportunities gig, ie not trusting him with a department. Truss would be very unwise to promote someone even Boris knew was not up to it.

    She has plenty to choose from, picking JRM would be absurd.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,764
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    All fine but for the first. Being mocked by enemy FMs cannot be taken as proof of a problem, that would be very foolish.
    The problem wasn't that the idiotic termagant didn’t know that Rostov and Voronezh weren't in Russia. The problem was she lacked the wit to think it through and finesse an answer. She just chatted shit that made herself look stupid.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    kle4 said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    Even Boris Johnson didnt trust JRM to be in the Cabinet until he made up a Brexit opportunities gig, ie not trusting him with a department. Truss would be very unwise to promote someone even Boris knew was not up to it.

    She has plenty to choose from, picking JRM would be absurd.
    JRM would be overpromoted as a local councillor.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,260
    O/T and it's a Rasmussen poll but 53% of likely voters in November agree that the FBI is "Biden's Gestapo."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    The Azov thing, with the reference to Duke of Edinburgh awards, is probably a reference to this story (obviously, what Truss proposed is illegal):-
    Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60544838
    She was wrong on that, and she fell into a bear trap set by Lavrov when he asked her to confirm Russian sovereignty over two places (in Russia) and she refused to do so, supposing them to be in Ukraine. So it would be wrong to say her Premiership will be without mis-steps, usually verbal ones. But on the other side, there does seem to be a workmanlike grinding out of results, which is the important thing. I can cope with some gaffes, if steadily the trade sitiation improves, steadily more oil-fields are exploited, more important projects move forward, taxes steadily decrease.
    On optimistic days I feel the same way. Truss strikes me as someone of limited imagination or ideas but someone who works hard and fairly ruthlessly to make sure what she has promised actually happens. In this respect she is the opposite of Boris who has ideas to spare but was never arsed to work them through to a result.
    Or Cameron, who was the master of the good sounding but totally empty statement on the GMTV sofa. Cometh the hour, cometh the determined plodder. God speed to her is all we can say.
    I wouldn't worry about her at all but for who she is planning to promote. JRM is a dangerous idiot, who as with Boris's departure makes up rules and claims them to have force of law or constitutional precedent. And she wants to give him real power, something Boris did not.

    She has no need to, plenty of fellow travellers to pick, so it will be because she thinks him great.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    All fine but for the first. Being mocked by enemy FMs cannot be taken as proof of a problem, that would be very foolish.
    The problem wasn't that the idiotic termagant didn’t know that Rostov and Voronezh weren't in Russia. The problem was she lacked the wit to think it through and finesse an answer. She just chatted shit that made herself look stupid.
    Then why not list that she made herself look stupid with Lavrov rather than that he took the piss with her? That's a criticism.
  • Sean_F said:

    O/T and it's a Rasmussen poll but 53% of likely voters in November agree that the FBI is "Biden's Gestapo."

    Presumably that 53% wouldn't have any problem with the FBI being Trump's gestapo.

    And I am amused re the frothing about armed IRS agents from people who loudly proclaim their support for gun ownership.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,923
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    I think that people are more resilient than most of the commentariat like to imagine.

    Over the past hundred and a bit years, we've survived two world wars, the Great Depression, the oil shocks and accompanying recessions, the GFC, and Covid. And, we're about six times richer per head than we were at the start of it all. We'll pull through this.
    .....we'll fight them on the beaches....
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,221
    Sean_F said:

    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.

    Regardless of who wins, they'll be overtaken by events. Even if the Government ultimately shows enough flexibility with the Treasury chequebook to rescue large chunks of both the business community and the general population from being killed off by the energy crisis, it's not going to survive the water running out next year.

    The electorate will abandon en masse a party that tells it to go and queue for hours in the streets (probably in a succession of Christ-awful heatwaves) to collect water with which to flush the bog from a communal standpipe. Probably observed by a petty jobsworth in a hi-vis vest and a Covid mask whose sole task is to ensure that you can only have half-a-bucket at a time.

    That, at long last, will be the end of the Conservatives. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279
    edited August 2022

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    I think that people are more resilient than most of the commentariat like to imagine.

    Over the past hundred and a bit years, we've survived two world wars, the Great Depression, the oil shocks and accompanying recessions, the GFC, and Covid. And, we're about six times richer per head than we were at the start of it all. We'll pull through this.
    .....we'll fight them on the beaches....
    I don't think anyone doubts that we will survive, or at least most of us will. It's the misery that will be getting through it that no one is looking forward to!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    Sean_F said:

    O/T and it's a Rasmussen poll but 53% of likely voters in November agree that the FBI is "Biden's Gestapo."

    Seriously waco.

    However "Rasmussen" and "poll" is an either/or.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.

    Regardless of who wins, they'll be overtaken by events. Even if the Government ultimately shows enough flexibility with the Treasury chequebook to rescue large chunks of both the business community and the general population from being killed off by the energy crisis, it's not going to survive the water running out next year.

    The electorate will abandon en masse a party that tells it to go and queue for hours in the streets (probably in a succession of Christ-awful heatwaves) to collect water with which to flush the bog from a communal standpipe. Probably observed by a petty jobsworth in a hi-vis vest and a Covid mask whose sole task is to ensure that you can only have half-a-bucket at a time.

    That, at long last, will be the end of the Conservatives. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
    Powerful imagery here - the end of the Conservatives accompanied by a collective struggle to flush the bog.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    Finnish PM the lovely Sanna "it was my cheek, not my neck" Marin has a right to relax however she pleases when she is off-duty. But when she says she has never been called to the office in the middle of the night I wonder whether she gets the point. At all times there should be someone on call who is sober - if not her, then a deputy. It shouldn't need spelling out that sometimes things happen in the middle of the night requiring rapid decision-making at the top.

    The other thing is nobody should assume the person holding the camera released the footage. Nowadays most cameras are controlled by microcomputers that are in constant radiowave communication... Just saying.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,145
    edited August 2022
    Sean_F said:

    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.

    I think so. There's a more nuanced, though still skeptical, piece here by Gaby Hinsliff:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/12/liz-truss-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-frontrunner-workaholic

    I'll grant DA an exemption for his Mr Misanthrope character on PB, but if all being mentioned generally is the stuff listed on PB today, and other similar eg Liz Truss the student Lib Dem is a political swinger who cannot be trusted and gub gub worra worra we are all going to dyeeee, then I'm quite concerned by the ability of the critics to lay a finger on her.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    ...
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    All fine but for the first. Being mocked by enemy FMs cannot be taken as proof of a problem, that would be very foolish.
    The problem wasn't that the idiotic termagant didn’t know that Rostov and Voronezh weren't in Russia. The problem was she lacked the wit to think it through and finesse an answer. She just chatted shit that made herself look stupid.
    Then why not list that she made herself look stupid with Lavrov rather than that he took the piss with her? That's a criticism.
    He took a what with her? That's a whole new rumour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,253
    Top trolling of Putin by the Ukrainians:

    https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1560929087153229831
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    Sean_F said:

    O/T and it's a Rasmussen poll but 53% of likely voters in November agree that the FBI is "Biden's Gestapo."

    Fuhrer Biden Investigations?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,145
    edited August 2022
    ..
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,221
    kinabalu said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.

    Regardless of who wins, they'll be overtaken by events. Even if the Government ultimately shows enough flexibility with the Treasury chequebook to rescue large chunks of both the business community and the general population from being killed off by the energy crisis, it's not going to survive the water running out next year.

    The electorate will abandon en masse a party that tells it to go and queue for hours in the streets (probably in a succession of Christ-awful heatwaves) to collect water with which to flush the bog from a communal standpipe. Probably observed by a petty jobsworth in a hi-vis vest and a Covid mask whose sole task is to ensure that you can only have half-a-bucket at a time.

    That, at long last, will be the end of the Conservatives. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
    Powerful imagery here - the end of the Conservatives accompanied by a collective struggle to flush the bog.
    That's right. Only fit for the sewer but can't even get rid of them that way.

    I'm going to try to make it my business to predict a bone dry Winter at every opportunity. It is the surest way to attract the constant conveyor belt of rain clouds that we desperately need.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,221
    MattW said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.

    Regardless of who wins, they'll be overtaken by events. Even if the Government ultimately shows enough flexibility with the Treasury chequebook to rescue large chunks of both the business community and the general population from being killed off by the energy crisis, it's not going to survive the water running out next year.

    The electorate will abandon en masse a party that tells it to go and queue for hours in the streets (probably in a succession of Christ-awful heatwaves) to collect water with which to flush the bog from a communal standpipe. Probably observed by a petty jobsworth in a hi-vis vest and a Covid mask whose sole task is to ensure that you can only have half-a-bucket at a time.

    That, at long last, will be the end of the Conservatives. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
    Who's told you to go and use a stand pipe?

    Has this been a thing except in 1976?

    Remember, we are only a month and two days from official autumn :-) .
    Give it time.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    Sean_F said:

    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.

    She has (metaphorically) shit herself several times already.

    I see no prospect of that changing in the future
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    pigeon said:

    MattW said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.

    Regardless of who wins, they'll be overtaken by events. Even if the Government ultimately shows enough flexibility with the Treasury chequebook to rescue large chunks of both the business community and the general population from being killed off by the energy crisis, it's not going to survive the water running out next year.

    The electorate will abandon en masse a party that tells it to go and queue for hours in the streets (probably in a succession of Christ-awful heatwaves) to collect water with which to flush the bog from a communal standpipe. Probably observed by a petty jobsworth in a hi-vis vest and a Covid mask whose sole task is to ensure that you can only have half-a-bucket at a time.

    That, at long last, will be the end of the Conservatives. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
    Who's told you to go and use a stand pipe?

    Has this been a thing except in 1976?

    Remember, we are only a month and two days from official autumn :-) .
    Give it time.
    There's also the point that reservoirs take time to fill even if it is officially autumn. So consumption still needs to be restrained even if it is pishing it down with rain.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    "In the 1950s and early 1960s, Britain had three consecutive Tory prime ministers — Anthony Eden, Harold Macmillan and Alec Douglas-Home — all of whom had gone to the same school (Eton, naturally).

    But after Labour's grammar school leader, Harold Wilson, won the 1964 general election, there wasn't another public-school prime minister until Tony Blair (Fettes, the Scottish Eton) won by a landslide in 1997.

    For a time — those 33 years between 1964 and 1997 — it really seemed as if a new meritocratic age was dawning.

    It even meant a wee lad from a Paisley council estate (me) could become editor of The Sunday Times, one of the world's most prestigious newspapers. It wasn't particularly unusual back then: the father of my legendary recent predecessor, Harry Evans, had been a train driver. The abolition of grammar schools was a setback. Public schools enjoyed a resurgence."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11128725/From-RAF-elite-universities-Britain-prizes-diversity-talent-says-ANDREW-NEIL.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    pigeon said:

    MattW said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Since most commentators seem to think that Truss is barely capable of feeding and dressing herself, I expect she'll surprise on the upside.

    Regardless of who wins, they'll be overtaken by events. Even if the Government ultimately shows enough flexibility with the Treasury chequebook to rescue large chunks of both the business community and the general population from being killed off by the energy crisis, it's not going to survive the water running out next year.

    The electorate will abandon en masse a party that tells it to go and queue for hours in the streets (probably in a succession of Christ-awful heatwaves) to collect water with which to flush the bog from a communal standpipe. Probably observed by a petty jobsworth in a hi-vis vest and a Covid mask whose sole task is to ensure that you can only have half-a-bucket at a time.

    That, at long last, will be the end of the Conservatives. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
    Who's told you to go and use a stand pipe?

    Has this been a thing except in 1976?

    Remember, we are only a month and two days from official autumn :-) .
    Give it time.
    I also wonder if private water companies are less likely to call out the standpipes then non-privatised firms, even when they are needed. They seem remarkably slow to have hosepipe bans.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,592

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    The disjunct between the nightmarish economic portents and actual life out there now is as visible in central Florence as it is in London

    Florence is rammed. It looks a bit ragged post covid and not as prosperous as it was, but the streets are heaving with tourists from all over. So the prosperity is returning…. Or so it feels

    Something has to give. Are we in a dream about to shatter, or are these negative predictions overdone?

    I think that people are more resilient than most of the commentariat like to imagine.

    Over the past hundred and a bit years, we've survived two world wars, the Great Depression, the oil shocks and accompanying recessions, the GFC, and Covid. And, we're about six times richer per head than we were at the start of it all. We'll pull through this.
    .....we'll fight them on the beaches....
    ...shite on the beaches, more like:

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1560679892995514370?s=20&t=mYokI21Dw7vCCs5P2anRYA
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    Andy_JS said:

    "In the 1950s and early 1960s, Britain had three consecutive Tory prime ministers — Anthony Eden, Harold Macmillan and Alec Douglas-Home — all of whom had gone to the same school (Eton, naturally).

    But after Labour's grammar school leader, Harold Wilson, won the 1964 general election, there wasn't another public-school prime minister until Tony Blair (Fettes, the Scottish Eton) won by a landslide in 1997.

    For a time — those 33 years between 1964 and 1997 — it really seemed as if a new meritocratic age was dawning.

    It even meant a wee lad from a Paisley council estate (me) could become editor of The Sunday Times, one of the world's most prestigious newspapers. It wasn't particularly unusual back then: the father of my legendary recent predecessor, Harry Evans, had been a train driver. The abolition of grammar schools was a setback. Public schools enjoyed a resurgence."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11128725/From-RAF-elite-universities-Britain-prizes-diversity-talent-says-ANDREW-NEIL.html

    "Scottish Eton"

    Shows the ignorance of the writer. Fettes is your bog standard post-Arnoldian foundation. And other schools were also called by that name. IIRC much of the current usage of that expression dates from one writer about Mr Blair.
This discussion has been closed.