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Could Liz Truss be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,172
    edited August 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started.

    In September the Nurses will vote to strike, in October the junior doctors too. There are major staff shortages across Health and social care. It will be a car crash, and Sunak doesn't have the financial or political resources to salvage the situation. I am not sure anyone does.

    He should sit on the back benches and say "I told you so..."
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories are already taking the piss, especially if the rumours of Rees-Mogg as Levelling Up secretary are true. To impose another leader, selected by a narrow group of largely southern male pensioners on us, would take the piss to extremes.

    I have no great hopes for Starmer but the Tories need to be out of power and rethink seriously who they are and what they want to do for the country. The current lot are an undisciplined rabble, even if one or two may occasionally do something worthwhile.

    Although to be fair only one Minister of Health has ever become Prime Minister - Neville Chamberlain.
    Technically all PMs from 1913 on to 1948 were responsible for a NHS - the state funded Highlands and Islands Medical Service (HIMS) (albeit geographically limited, and means tested charged for at a low level). Though that would have been through the Secretary of State for Scotland.
    Since only one Secretary of State for Scotland has ever become Prime Minister (and that was before 1913) that doesn't alter the premise.

    Interestingly, the SoSS in question was also the last Chief Secretary of Ireland to rise to the office of Prime Minister.
    Who was that, please? Can't think offhand ...
    Arthur Balfour.

    Also from 1895-1902 the last person to hold the office of First Lord of the Treasury without being Prime Minister.

    Also until 1970 the last ex-party leader to serve in a cabinet under one (in fact, three) of his successors.*

    *ignoring Baldwin, Macdonald and Neville Chamberlin who were still party leaders at the time.
    Thanks! His house was at Whittinghame in East Lothian of course (very near the new East Linton station for the information of @Sunil_Prasannan btw.). ISTR he was the first golfing PM ...
  • Scott_xP said:

    Exc from @JackElsom

    Sir Keir Starmer will drastically cut his Labour party conference speech to make it less boring

    Shadow ministers being told to trim theirs to just 5 mins

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19562895/keir-starmer-conference-speech-shorter?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    Starmer has had a good couple of weeks. He needs to take the momentum forward now.

    People can imagine him as PM But now he needs to show people what he would do
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022
    nova said:

    TimS said:

    10% Labour lead with BMG.

    Lab 42%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%
    Green 5%
    Ref UK 3%

    Polling 16th-18th August

    It looks like what’s happened is Labour’s policy proposals have firmed up support in the centre left, rather than just taking big chunks out of Tory support. LLG remains quite stable at 58% here. But rather than 7 or 8% Green and 13% LD it’s a more decent Labour score.
    Not sure we can read much into it as it's almost identical to the last BMG poll, which was about a week before Boris resigned (42,32,11,4,4,4).
    There was also one from bmg about a week or 2 after he resigned thats not on the wiki list, also 10% lead (41 31 iirc)
    Edit - 41 to 32 actually, published 1 August (fieldwork 26 to 28 July) although was mainly a Tory leadership piece but did include VI
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,368
    boulay said:

    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If
    they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't
    she?
    To be honest it was broad brush general theorising based on ignorance re the LDs.

    I think there are Tory MPs like Alex Chalk who are relatively moderate and not disgusting to the non Tory vote.

    Whilst I imagine LD PPCs would be pissed off if they were dropped there are possibly current sitting moderate Tories in LD target seats where the LD calculation might be that they have experience to an extent and the coup factor as well as the message it sends “ the LDs are the home of sensible centrist former Tories” is worth the disgruntlement.

    Re your last sentence I think any Tory MP who is any good will not be on the radar for advancement with a Truss gov - it’s going to be true believers only I fear!

    Really just idle basic speculation as I was thinking this morning for the first time that since I have been politically aware from a young age it’s truly the first time I haven’t instinctively wanted a Tory gov at next election. I’ve been tribal all my life and was even in 97. Now however I find myself actually disliking a lot of what the current Tory party stand for so if the Lib Dems became a centre right party whilst the Tories tacked further right it would be interesting.
    Oh, Mr Boulay!!! Writing posts on here "based on ignorance re the LDs"....? That sort of thing never happens here on PB......

    Not sure you will have much luck getting the Lib Dems to become a "centre right party". The main characteristic of the Lib Dems is that they are liberal - ie anti-authoritarian - and in favour of liberty and freedom for everybody, not just the chosen few. Freedom to.... and at the same time, freedom from....... Hope that helps.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Scott_xP said:

    Exc from @JackElsom

    Sir Keir Starmer will drastically cut his Labour party conference speech to make it less boring

    Shadow ministers being told to trim theirs to just 5 mins

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19562895/keir-starmer-conference-speech-shorter?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    Starmer has had a good couple of weeks. He needs to take the momentum forward now.

    People can imagine him as PM But now he needs to show people what he would do
    'Not appointing Jacob Rees-Mogg and Suella Braverman to the cabinet' is probably adequate, as long as he keeps nutters like Gardiner and Sultana at arms' length.
  • novanova Posts: 472
    DavidL said:

    Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely

    What from 15% down when she's already the obvious winner of the contest? Really cannot see it. Boris's masterly inactivity as caretaker, whilst understandable in certain respects, in the face of the CoL crisis is causing real problems. This election campaign is looking painfully self indulgent right now. It is fine for opposition but the Tories will surely choose not to do this again in government (assuming that they are in government again, of course).
    It wouldn't be a surprise if she did get some bounce.

    I assume most of the population don't know she's already the obvious winner.

    The Tories will also go from Boris as PM, and some randoms arguing with each other about who takes over, to simply Truss as PM.

    There are a lot of people who won't pay attention up till that point, and if she announces a few populist policies early on, I can see her getting a lot more popular. Boris Johnsons' popularity ratings at the time he became PM were absolutely appalling, and while he was never really popular (apart from the odd covid related bounce), he did get a bounce when he became PM.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    nova said:

    DavidL said:

    Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely

    What from 15% down when she's already the obvious winner of the contest? Really cannot see it. Boris's masterly inactivity as caretaker, whilst understandable in certain respects, in the face of the CoL crisis is causing real problems. This election campaign is looking painfully self indulgent right now. It is fine for opposition but the Tories will surely choose not to do this again in government (assuming that they are in government again, of course).
    It wouldn't be a surprise if she did get some bounce.
    She might achieve only 5-10% behind for a few weeks!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    nova said:

    DavidL said:

    Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely

    What from 15% down when she's already the obvious winner of the contest? Really cannot see it. Boris's masterly inactivity as caretaker, whilst understandable in certain respects, in the face of the CoL crisis is causing real problems. This election campaign is looking painfully self indulgent right now. It is fine for opposition but the Tories will surely choose not to do this again in government (assuming that they are in government again, of course).
    It wouldn't be a surprise if she did get some bounce.

    I assume most of the population don't know she's already the obvious winner.
    That is certainly true. I had lunch with several ex-colleagues the other day and they were all talking about Sunak's coming transition to Downing Street.

    They were really shocked when I told them Truss would almost certainly win by a 2-1 margin.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started.

    In September the Nurses will vote to strike, in October the junior doctors too. There are major staff shortages across Health and social care. It will be a car crash, and Sunak doesn't have the financial or political resources to salvage the situation. I am not sure anyone does.

    He should sit on the back benches and say "I told you so..."
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories are already taking the piss, especially if the rumours of Rees-Mogg as Levelling Up secretary are true. To impose another leader, selected by a narrow group of largely southern male pensioners on us, would take the piss to extremes.

    I have no great hopes for Starmer but the Tories need to be out of power and rethink seriously who they are and what they want to do for the country. The current lot are an undisciplined rabble, even if one or two may occasionally do something worthwhile.

    Although to be fair only one Minister of Health has ever become Prime Minister - Neville Chamberlain.
    Technically all PMs from 1913 on to 1948 were responsible for a NHS - the state funded Highlands and Islands Medical Service (HIMS) (albeit geographically limited, and means tested charged for at a low level). Though that would have been through the Secretary of State for Scotland.
    Since only one Secretary of State for Scotland has ever become Prime Minister (and that was before 1913) that doesn't alter the premise.

    Interestingly, the SoSS in question was also the last Chief Secretary of Ireland to rise to the office of Prime Minister.
    Who was that, please? Can't think offhand ...
    Arthur Balfour.

    Also from 1895-1902 the last person to hold the office of First Lord of the Treasury without being Prime Minister.

    Also until 1970 the last ex-party leader to serve in a cabinet under one (in fact, three) of his successors.*

    *ignoring Baldwin, Macdonald and Neville Chamberlin who were still party leaders at the time.
    Thanks! His house was at Whittinghame in East Lothian of course (very near the new East Linton station for the information of @Sunil_Prasannan btw.). ISTR he was the first golfing PM ...
    and the first motoring PM. And probably the wittiest person ever to be PM. And the first non-Jewish person to endorse the Zionist movement (for good or for ill).

    But in most ways he was a throwback to (or a hangover of) the nineteenth century.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,039
    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Scott_xP said:

    Exc from @JackElsom

    Sir Keir Starmer will drastically cut his Labour party conference speech to make it less boring

    Shadow ministers being told to trim theirs to just 5 mins

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19562895/keir-starmer-conference-speech-shorter?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    Starmer has had a good couple of weeks. He needs to take the momentum forward now.

    People can imagine him as PM But now he needs to show people what he would do
    The energy policy may be a turning point, it may be a 'moment'. But for now we are projecting an awful lot on to one YouGov poll.
    Btw, i normally reckon to have had a good couple of weeks when one of them was spent on holiday ;)

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    ClippP said:

    Foxy said:

    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't she?
    I wouldn't rush to take Tory MPs defecting to either Labour or LD, as it won't make a dent in an eighty seat majority. Let them swing in the wind.
    Yes indeed, Dr Foxy. There were a fair few defections of Conservative and Labour MPs to the Lib Dems in the run-up to the "Anti-Brexit" election in 2019. I have spotted one or two of them out and about in recent Westminster by-elections - and good on them! But the majority seem to have disappeared without trace. Was their only motivation to hang onto their seats? Lib Dems will be right to be sceptical about other Tory MPs who want to cross the floor.
    One of Swinsons many mistakes in 2019 was taking all comers provided they were anti-Brexit. A very naive decision characteristic of the hubris of her leadership. It was at least a way to reduce the Tory numbers in a NOM situation, but with an 80 seat majority there is no point. I cannot think of any obvious Tory dissenters who would be welcome. They made their beds, let them lie in them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    ydoethur said:

    nova said:

    DavidL said:

    Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely

    What from 15% down when she's already the obvious winner of the contest? Really cannot see it. Boris's masterly inactivity as caretaker, whilst understandable in certain respects, in the face of the CoL crisis is causing real problems. This election campaign is looking painfully self indulgent right now. It is fine for opposition but the Tories will surely choose not to do this again in government (assuming that they are in government again, of course).
    It wouldn't be a surprise if she did get some bounce.

    I assume most of the population don't know she's already the obvious winner.
    That is certainly true. I had lunch with several ex-colleagues the other day and they were all talking about Sunak's coming transition to Downing Street.

    They were really shocked when I told them Truss would almost certainly win by a 2-1 margin.
    Teachers?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    FkSports said:

    FK Sports best massage gun uk can provide you with an instant massage.
    The FK Sport's massage gun Percussion Massagers is a handheld device that uses pulsed pressure to focus deeply into your muscle tissue. A deep Tissue Massager can relieve muscle stiffness and soreness, promote blood circulation. When you feel muscle aches, fatigue or want to relax, the Massage Gun can provide you with an instant massage. The use of a Sports massage gun can also prevent fasciitis, which is a painful and intractable inflammation caused by adhesion of fascia to muscles. Never be satisfied with an unreliable massager, only satisfied with FK Sports gun Massager.

    All very interesting. Are you suggesting this can relieve the stress of nuclear Armageddon, alien invasion, the Trump resurrection and another buffoon as our PM?
    Yes, but can it relieve the stresses of being identified as a deviant by the Wokefinder General in the new Truss Inquisition?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    ydoethur said:

    nova said:

    DavidL said:

    Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely

    What from 15% down when she's already the obvious winner of the contest? Really cannot see it. Boris's masterly inactivity as caretaker, whilst understandable in certain respects, in the face of the CoL crisis is causing real problems. This election campaign is looking painfully self indulgent right now. It is fine for opposition but the Tories will surely choose not to do this again in government (assuming that they are in government again, of course).
    It wouldn't be a surprise if she did get some bounce.

    I assume most of the population don't know she's already the obvious winner.
    That is certainly true. I had lunch with several ex-colleagues the other day and they were all talking about Sunak's coming transition to Downing Street.

    They were really shocked when I told them Truss would almost certainly win by a 2-1 margin.
    Teachers?
    Yes. Most of them maths teachers.

    That was another reason why they were shocked. They know just how bad she is.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    People don't grow into or with roles, at least not the PM role, as everyone from Brown onwards should have shown you. The most magisterial detailed critique of Johnson's PM years was written by Hastings before they actually started. Parris is no Hastings (Max would have read those tidetables right) but he is right about this.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,446

    I have to say that Kwasi Kwarteng has an impressive CV, won University Challenge, has written books. Wonder why he didn't stand for the leadership?

    If he's so smart he has surely worked out that to become Conservative PM in 2022 is politically a dumb move.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    edited August 2022

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,764

    Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    Fucking LOL. If you keep simping this hard mistress will reward you with a flick of her tawse right on the seam of your ballbag. You'll love it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Its the Midlands/Wales figure that has screwed them the most here compared to before.
    Energy policy polling shows the public are very keen on everything proposed by everyone, they want help for everyone with more help for the most in need, a VAT cut in energy, a cap freeze, and tax cuts.
    Realistic goals from johnny public
  • ydoethur said:

    FkSports said:

    FK Sports best massage gun uk can provide you with an instant massage.
    The FK Sport's massage gun Percussion Massagers is a handheld device that uses pulsed pressure to focus deeply into your muscle tissue. A deep Tissue Massager can relieve muscle stiffness and soreness, promote blood circulation. When you feel muscle aches, fatigue or want to relax, the Massage Gun can provide you with an instant massage. The use of a Sports massage gun can also prevent fasciitis, which is a painful and intractable inflammation caused by adhesion of fascia to muscles. Never be satisfied with an unreliable massager, only satisfied with FK Sports gun Massager.

    The standard of troll, which has noticeably improved recently, suddenly drops off a cliff.

    I'm not getting a good feeling from this massage advert.
    No happy ending?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,368

    ydoethur said:

    nova said:

    DavidL said:

    Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely

    What from 15% down when she's already the obvious winner of the contest? Really cannot see it. Boris's masterly inactivity as caretaker, whilst understandable in certain respects, in the face of the CoL crisis is causing real problems. This election campaign is looking painfully self indulgent right now. It is fine for opposition but the Tories will surely choose not to do this again in government (assuming that they are in government again, of course).
    It wouldn't be a surprise if she did get some bounce.

    I assume most of the population don't know she's already the obvious winner.
    That is certainly true. I had lunch with several ex-colleagues the other day and they were all talking about Sunak's coming transition to Downing Street.

    They were really shocked when I told them Truss would almost certainly win by a 2-1 margin.
    Teachers?
    I would imagine so. But almost certainly the "new teachers" that the Tories are busy recruiting for the profession.... ie not really old-style professional teachers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    edited August 2022

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
    Si. Firenze

    I have brought my older daughter to Tuscany to teach her about the Renaissance. So far she is mildly impressed. But only mildly





  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    edited August 2022
    eristdoof said:

    I have to say that Kwasi Kwarteng has an impressive CV, won University Challenge, has written books. Wonder why he didn't stand for the leadership?

    If he's so smart he has surely worked out that to become Conservative PM in 2022 is politically a dumb move.
    Anyone who would turn down the chance to become PM probably doesn't have what it takes to become PM.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    Foxy said:

    FkSports said:

    FK Sports best massage gun uk can provide you with an instant massage.
    The FK Sport's massage gun Percussion Massagers is a handheld device that uses pulsed pressure to focus deeply into your muscle tissue. A deep Tissue Massager can relieve muscle stiffness and soreness, promote blood circulation. When you feel muscle aches, fatigue or want to relax, the Massage Gun can provide you with an instant massage. The use of a Sports massage gun can also prevent fasciitis, which is a painful and intractable inflammation caused by adhesion of fascia to muscles. Never be satisfied with an unreliable massager, only satisfied with FK Sports gun Massager.

    All very interesting. Are you suggesting this can relieve the stress of nuclear Armageddon, alien invasion, the Trump resurrection and another buffoon as our PM?
    Yes, but can it relieve the stresses of being identified as a deviant by the Wokefinder General in the new Truss Inquisition?
    I can just about handle the nuclear radiation, being chipped by the govt as part of the vaccine rollout and being taken overnight by aliens to their spaceships for experimentations, but if someone a couple of generations younger than me starts using they instead of he, even if not in my presence, my head will surely explode. How are we expected to cope?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
    Si. Firenze

    I have brought my older daughter to Tuscany to teach her about the Renaissance. So far she is mildly impressed





    Shit old skool eye-hand-surface stuff, hard even to call it art.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Its extraordinary that people predict Liz would be a disaster, when the disaster is already here. Look at the economic data.

    The numbers show that Sunak's tourniquet taxes are helping to kill the economy and, alarmingly for his supporters, raising nowhere near what was expected into the bargain.

    in six months time, as the economy keels over even more and he gets even less in revenues, he would face the unenviable choice of huge cuts to public spending, some sort of Corbynite kleptocracy on tax, or bankruptcy.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    The Azov thing, with the reference to Duke of Edinburgh awards, is probably a reference to this story (obviously, what Truss proposed is illegal):-
    Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60544838
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    MISTY said:

    Its extraordinary that people predict Liz would be a disaster, when the disaster is already here. Look at the economic data.

    The numbers show that Sunak's tourniquet taxes are helping to kill the economy and, alarmingly for his supporters, raising nowhere near what was expected into the bargain.

    in six months time, as the economy keels over even more and he gets even less in revenues, he would face the unenviable choice of huge cuts to public spending, some sort of Corbynite kleptocracy on tax, or bankruptcy.

    Disaster is not a fixed state, things can always get (or be made) worse.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    Jonathan said:

    Hang on, can I check something. Is the Tory party actually about to make Liz Truss British prime minister?

    It’s a little mind boggling. Is she truly the best PM the conservatives can offer the country right now?

    Three jokes about Boris Johnson and a song
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,883
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
    Si. Firenze

    I have brought my older daughter to Tuscany to teach her about the Renaissance. So far she is mildly impressed. But only mildly





    But it's just an old bridge.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
    Si. Firenze

    I have brought my older daughter to Tuscany to teach her about the Renaissance. So far she is mildly impressed





    Shit old skool eye-hand-surface stuff, hard even to call it art.
    Difficult to assess without knowing what the sandro-2 prompt was.

    Arno looking manky.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    Apparently Sir Graham Brady insisted on a contest lasting all summer so he could go on holiday.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    The public is surely responding to the situation we are in now, which is the result of the policy choices of Johnson and Sunak. Not Truss.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    edited August 2022

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    Not really, scotland and midlands havd lurched, the rest of South is a half point swing to tories, London a half point swing away, the North a point and a half away (so the last 3 all pretty much rounding and moe changes)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    The public is surely responding to the situation we are in now, which is the result of the policy choices of Johnson and Sunak. Not Truss.
    Truss remains at the core of this government and supported all of the current shitshow, including Sunaks budget.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279
    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades as out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
    The situation we find ourselves in isn't the result of these policies, though. Sunak's guiding light has been Gordon Brown, not Margaret Thatcher.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    The public is surely responding to the situation we are in now, which is the result of the policy choices of Johnson and Sunak. Not Truss.
    The doctrine of collective responsibility applies. If she didn't resign, she supported those policy choices.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Foxy said:

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    The public is surely responding to the situation we are in now, which is the result of the policy choices of Johnson and Sunak. Not Truss.
    Truss remains at the core of this government and supported all of the current shitshow, including Sunaks budget.
    But she is promising a radical break with Sunak's policies! Policies that are bringing us to the verge of bankruptcy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Openly backed Truss?

    Jobs for the sycophants is part of the continuity Johnson legacy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,743
    edited August 2022
    The recent record of hoping people who are obviously under par in some way magically improving when they get the top is not great. Boris, Brown and Trump come to mind. IDS, Jezza, T May also.

    Thatcher is the big exception; so much so that we forget how non first rate she was considered both before and at first after.

    Is Truss one of those? Probably not.

    The Tories once again rejecting much better candidates are taking a risk. Both MPs and members cannot possibly think they are doing it in ignorance. But it has become a habit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Morning OKC! Dribbly and well under 15 degC outside in the wind here.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
    Arguably, the late 1940s.

    Which is ironic, as it was the policies of the late 1940s she was largely looking to undo...
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    The public is surely responding to the situation we are in now, which is the result of the policy choices of Johnson and Sunak. Not Truss.
    The doctrine of collective responsibility applies. If she didn't resign, she supported those policy choices.
    Now she wants to break from them. though, It's Sunak who wants to continue with them, when they are obviously failing.

    If and when Liz wins, I reckon she will repudiate much of what has gone on in economic and cultural policy since May's accession. It will be a huge shock for the tory party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    Not really, scotland and midlands havd lurched, the rest of South is a half point swing to tories, London a half point swing away, the North a point and a half away (so the last 3 all pretty much rounding and moe changes)
    I was thinking more into alignment, rather than by recent shift. The swing now appears fairly national since the GE, with little variation by region.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,507
    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    Bit of a drop since the last election. Adding up the South East and South West to get a comparable "rest of South" from last time, they led by 31% in 2019. Going from that to a statistical dead heat is a heck of a change.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    The public is surely responding to the situation we are in now, which is the result of the policy choices of Johnson and Sunak. Not Truss.
    Truss remains at the core of this government and supported all of the current shitshow, including Sunaks budget.
    But she is promising a radical break with Sunak's policies! Policies that are bringing us to the verge of bankruptcy.
    Her tax cuts and spend policy is the road to bankruptcy, just a faster route.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    edited August 2022
    algarkirk said:

    The recent record of hoping people who are obviously under par in some way magically improving when they get the top is not great. Boris, Brown and Trump come to mind. IDS, Jezza, T May also.

    Thatcher is the big exception; so much so that we forget how non first rate she was considered both before and at first after.

    Is Truss one of those? Probably not.

    The Tories once again rejecting much better candidates are taking a risk. Both MPs and members cannot possibly think they are doing it in ignorance. But it has become a habit.

    Boris and Trump won in 2019 and 2016, Corbyn got a hung parliament in 2017. Would Hunt or Gove, Jeb Bush or Cruz done much better? Maybe Burnham but not massively so. Leadsom was not much better than May.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
    Arguably, the late 1940s.

    Which is ironic, as it was the policies of the late 1940s she was largely looking to undo...
    Perhaps Truss could repeal the Town and Country Planning Act and end the NHS monopoly.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
    Arguably, the late 1940s.

    Which is ironic, as it was the policies of the late 1940s she was largely looking to undo...
    Truss is looking to undo policies that have brought us to the brink of catastrophe. Its clear now surely that lockdown and furlough were economy wrecking disasters of huge proportions.

    What's wrong with doing something else?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    Not really, scotland and midlands havd lurched, the rest of South is a half point swing to tories, London a half point swing away, the North a point and a half away (so the last 3 all pretty much rounding and moe changes)
    I was thinking more into alignment, rather than by recent shift. The swing now appears fairly national since the GE, with little variation by region.
    Yeah, although it ought to be. Unless you're actively harrying the North etc.
    The movement in the South is very large, but id also expect there to be a lot of undecideds/unhappy natural Tories here some of whom will definitely revert coming in to a GE. The swingback factor
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    So, I am going to be living in a freeport along with everyone else on dartmoor and in Plymouth and the south hams

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/whole-dartmoor-south-hams-included-7486222.amp

    Hopefully means the gin will be duty free
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    MISTY said:

    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    The public is surely responding to the situation we are in now, which is the result of the policy choices of Johnson and Sunak. Not Truss.
    The doctrine of collective responsibility applies. If she didn't resign, she supported those policy choices.
    Now she wants to break from them. though, It's Sunak who wants to continue with them, when they are obviously failing.

    If and when Liz wins, I reckon she will repudiate much of what has gone on in economic and cultural policy since May's accession. It will be a huge shock for the tory party.
    Well, if she does what you outline, I can only agree with your last sentence.

    The subsequent election result will not, of course, be a shock. It will still be a source of depression for them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992
    edited August 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    There is more than a hint of Corbyn about Truss. A move away from centre , leaning into all the old tropes and reviving the greatest (miss) hits of one wing of the party. Obviously she lacks Corbyns integrity and common touch.

    Bringing back Redwood, reminds me of when Englebert Humperdink was brought back to represent the U.K. at Eurovision.

    Corbyn's integrity? Jesus.

    Please don't be encouraged by @SouthamObserver 's sub Damien McBride bullshit.

    You're better than that.
    It reads better if you think of that bit as irony.
    As I did.
    Casino doesn't do irony.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    MISTY said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
    Arguably, the late 1940s.

    Which is ironic, as it was the policies of the late 1940s she was largely looking to undo...
    Truss is looking to undo policies that have brought us to the brink of catastrophe. Its clear now surely that lockdown and furlough were economy wrecking disasters of huge proportions.

    What's wrong with doing something else?
    We're still doing lockdown and furlough?

    *checks watch*

    Did you start very early or was it an all-nighter?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Foxy said:

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    YouGov details now up:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/djmptlo22m/TheTimes_VI_Adhoc_220817_w.pdf

    "Tory 2019 now DK" (at 24%) is still 12 points higher than Labours 12%. If we assume half of that difference return to the Tories, that would reduce the Labour lead by 2 - useful but not game-changing. Society remains extremelty divided by age and Brexit. Tories still lead 2-1 among over-65s and by 53-22 among 2019 Leavers, but the proportion of Remain voters, people under 50 or residents in London, Midlands or North voting Tory is almosr negligble.

    Tories still 2% ahead in "rest of South" but losing hand over fist everywhere else. And doesn't @StuartDickson claim that Yougov is the pollster which balances the subsamples properly?
    They apparently do, but to accept the subsets as 'accurate' therefore you'd have to buy an 8% swing in the Midlands in a week. YouGovs sub samples are just as wild as everyone elses
    A subsample is obviously smaller, so will have larger MoE.

    Ominously for the Trussed Tories the subsamples have all fluctuated in the same direction, suggesting more than a random effect.
    The public is surely responding to the situation we are in now, which is the result of the policy choices of Johnson and Sunak. Not Truss.
    Truss remains at the core of this government and supported all of the current shitshow, including Sunaks budget.
    But she is promising a radical break with Sunak's policies! Policies that are bringing us to the verge of bankruptcy.
    Her tax cuts and spend policy is the road to bankruptcy, just a faster route.
    So if tax and spend is a disaster, and tax cut and spend is a disaster, then we are left with slashing spending whatever we do.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    IshmaelZ said:

    So, I am going to be living in a freeport along with everyone else on dartmoor and in Plymouth and the south hams

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/whole-dartmoor-south-hams-included-7486222.amp

    Hopefully means the gin will be duty free

    It won't be gin to be the tonic you need.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
    Arguably, the late 1940s.

    Which is ironic, as it was the policies of the late 1940s she was largely looking to undo...
    Truss is looking to undo policies that have brought us to the brink of catastrophe. Its clear now surely that lockdown and furlough were economy wrecking disasters of huge proportions.

    What's wrong with doing something else?
    We're still doing lockdown and furlough?

    *checks watch*

    Did you start very early or was it an all-nighter?
    You don't think the huge impact of those policies isn't still with us? I've got news for you, They will be with us for decades.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
    Arguably, the late 1940s.

    Which is ironic, as it was the policies of the late 1940s she was largely looking to undo...
    Perhaps Truss could repeal the Town and Country Planning Act and end the NHS monopoly.
    Or alternatively, she could nationalise Monopoly sets and use the money to pay doctors and nurses.

    Given her plans include the printing of money on a vast scale, it would cut out the middleman.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    So, I am going to be living in a freeport along with everyone else on dartmoor and in Plymouth and the south hams

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/whole-dartmoor-south-hams-included-7486222.amp

    Hopefully means the gin will be duty free

    Hmm, interesting. "Yes we put the whole of Dartmoor on a map showing scrapping of planning regulations but we don't really mean it unless you come along and want to put a distribution centre just next to Hound Tor and knock down Hay Tor in which case that will be perfectly fine."
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    So, I am going to be living in a freeport along with everyone else on dartmoor and in Plymouth and the south hams

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/whole-dartmoor-south-hams-included-7486222.amp

    Hopefully means the gin will be duty free

    Hmm, interesting. "Yes we put the whole of Dartmoor on a map showing scrapping of planning regulations but we don't really mean it unless you come along and want to put a distribution centre just next to Hound Tor and knock down Hay Tor in which case that will be perfectly fine."
    That's the worry
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    MISTY said:

    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1h
    I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

    And

    "This is going to be an almighty car crash".

    Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

    And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

    So there's a bit of hope.
    I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

    But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

    What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

    1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
    2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
    3. Errrrr ....
    4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
    5. Drawing a blank for any more.

    Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.
    Just recently we've had...

    Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
    Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
    Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
    Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.
    So lets see, recently we've had

    Lavrov hating her because she's standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine.
    The Foreign Secretary reaching an agreement with our NATO allies Lithuania.
    A rant from you about "Azov".

    For anyone who isn't a Putinist, Azov is a sign of trolling and the others are good things. Disappointing to see 8 mainly left-wingers like this comment.

    That policy ideas suggested thirteen years ago are out of context for a leadership contest today isn't a car crash either. Circumstances change. Floating an idea and being willing to retreat on it immediately if it doesn't work rather than sending out Ministers to defend it for a week then retreating on it is probably an improvement on the departing government too.
    She makes even SeanTs sock puppets appear consistent, and many of her daft policies were floated and then rescinded very recently.

    It's almost as if policies based on misunderstood Thatcherism are 3 decades out of date, as far removed in time as policies from the early fifties would have been in Thatchers day. Good for tickling up Tory males of a certain age though.
    Arguably, the late 1940s.

    Which is ironic, as it was the policies of the late 1940s she was largely looking to undo...
    Truss is looking to undo policies that have brought us to the brink of catastrophe. Its clear now surely that lockdown and furlough were economy wrecking disasters of huge proportions.

    What's wrong with doing something else?
    We're still doing lockdown and furlough?

    *checks watch*

    Did you start very early or was it an all-nighter?
    You don't think the huge impact of those policies isn't still with us? I've got news for you, They will be with us for decades.
    You said we needed to stop doing them.

    I've got news for you. We have. So it's too late to change course on that now. For good or for ill, it's done.

    It's not furlough you should be concentrating on as a possible fiscal problem, it's gas prices. That's where you're going to see Truss mess up spectacularly and she certainly won't do what you're asking her to.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    So, I am going to be living in a freeport along with everyone else on dartmoor and in Plymouth and the south hams

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/whole-dartmoor-south-hams-included-7486222.amp

    Hopefully means the gin will be duty free

    Hmm, interesting. "Yes we put the whole of Dartmoor on a map showing scrapping of planning regulations but we don't really mean it unless you come along and want to put a distribution centre just next to Hound Tor and knock down Hay Tor in which case that will be perfectly fine."
    That's the worry
    It's a brave thing to do with the LDs leering over the Tory incumbents' collective shoulder.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    @GuidoFawkes
    Rumour doing the rounds in DC is that Trump had in his possession US intel on a G7 leader's same-sex extramarital amours.


    https://www.twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1560918427727970304
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    @GuidoFawkes
    Rumour doing the rounds in DC is that Trump had in his possession US intel on a G7 leader's same-sex extramarital amours.


    https://www.twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1560918427727970304

    I knew it, I knew a man who dyed his hair orange would have secrets.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,248

    @GuidoFawkes
    Rumour doing the rounds in DC is that Trump had in his possession US intel on a G7 leader's same-sex extramarital amours.


    https://www.twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1560918427727970304

    Back to the same old gay Macron rumour mill. Just because he doesn't have an official mistress.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279
    Foxy said:

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Openly backed Truss?

    Jobs for the sycophants is part of the continuity Johnson legacy.
    Yes, Ms Patel has been curiously quiet! I don't think she's even been about in the constituency very much.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    I see rumours about another politician's sexuality are going around twitter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Foxy said:

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Openly backed Truss?

    Jobs for the sycophants is part of the continuity Johnson legacy.
    Yes, Ms Patel has been curiously quiet! I don't think she's even been about in the constituency very much.
    It's odd, because it's no secret she hates Rishi Sunak. Allegedly made all sorts of allegations about him in private to Tory MPs.

    I can only conclude she hates Liz Truss even more for some reason.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,308
    Parris wrote a similarly withering piece about IDS just before he was ousted. I've always thought that might have been influential. But the Tory part has changed massively since then, and Parris's criticisms of Brexit and Boris mean he's now very much a lonely, isolated figure amongst that community.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927
    edited August 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Openly backed Truss?

    Jobs for the sycophants is part of the continuity Johnson legacy.
    Yes, Ms Patel has been curiously quiet! I don't think she's even been about in the constituency very much.
    It's odd, because it's no secret she hates Rishi Sunak. Allegedly made all sorts of allegations about him in private to Tory MPs.

    I can only conclude she hates Liz Truss even more for some reason.
    She's met her?

    And worked with the Foreign Secretary on Rwanda?

    To be fair to Priti Patel, she was never a Boris sycophant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    edited August 2022

    Parris wrote a similarly withering piece about IDS just before he was ousted. I've always thought that might have been influential. But the Tory part has changed massively since then, and Parris's criticisms of Brexit and Boris mean he's now very much a lonely, isolated figure amongst that community.

    They will never forgive him for what he said about Johnson. Very hard to forgive people for being proved right.
  • The chat and gossip about how awful Truss will be as PM reminds me of the chat and gossip about Nicola Sturgeon. Driven by dislike and hatred of her party and goals. Elements of misogyny. Sour grapes from people who think their group should be running the party. Fear that she might - just might - end up being good and get things done that they don't want to happen. Playing the woman not the ball. It's not the best level of discussion on PB.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Openly backed Truss?

    Jobs for the sycophants is part of the continuity Johnson legacy.
    Yes, Ms Patel has been curiously quiet! I don't think she's even been about in the constituency very much.
    It's odd, because it's no secret she hates Rishi Sunak. Allegedly made all sorts of allegations about him in private to Tory MPs.

    I can only conclude she hates Liz Truss even more for some reason.
    She's met her?

    And worked with the Foreign Secretary on Rwanda?

    To be fair to Priti Patel, she was never a Boris sycophant.
    Never a Boris sycophant? That's odd since he gave her a prestigious job.

    But the point about Rwanda is a good one!
  • I see rumours about another politician's sexuality are going around twitter.

    If it is the Trump G7 one that @williamglenn mentioned, then twitter has already put up two names and there are only six countries to choose from. I'd not want to rely on Twitter or Guido even if I cared which leaders are gay.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Matthew Parris doesn't like Liz Truss then? Can someone actually be "potentially dangerous"? Aren't they just dangerous? And talk of "defanging" her implies that she will try to cause changes that the "blob" - and perhaps other parts of the real state too - won't like. That's not the same as being a peabrain at all. But...this is journalism...I shouldn't take the language too seriously.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,230

    I see rumours about another politician's sexuality are going around twitter.

    If it is the Trump G7 one that @williamglenn mentioned, then twitter has already put up two names and there are only six countries to choose from. I'd not want to rely on Twitter or Guido even if I cared which leaders are gay.
    There were reports that the material seized involved the French President when it happened.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927
    edited August 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Openly backed Truss?

    Jobs for the sycophants is part of the continuity Johnson legacy.
    Yes, Ms Patel has been curiously quiet! I don't think she's even been about in the constituency very much.
    It's odd, because it's no secret she hates Rishi Sunak. Allegedly made all sorts of allegations about him in private to Tory MPs.

    I can only conclude she hates Liz Truss even more for some reason.
    She's met her?

    And worked with the Foreign Secretary on Rwanda?

    To be fair to Priti Patel, she was never a Boris sycophant.
    Never a Boris sycophant? That's odd since he gave her a prestigious job.

    But the point about Rwanda is a good one!
    The key to understanding Boris's Cabinet appointments is to see them as human shields against the three things he was taking flak for: racism, sexism, and backsliding on Brexit.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Openly backed Truss?

    Jobs for the sycophants is part of the continuity Johnson legacy.
    Yes, Ms Patel has been curiously quiet! I don't think she's even been about in the constituency very much.
    It's odd, because it's no secret she hates Rishi Sunak. Allegedly made all sorts of allegations about him in private to Tory MPs.

    I can only conclude she hates Liz Truss even more for some reason.
    She's met her?

    And worked with the Foreign Secretary on Rwanda?

    To be fair to Priti Patel, she was never a Boris sycophant.
    Rwandagate is coming ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    I see rumours about another politician's sexuality are going around twitter.

    If it is the Trump G7 one that @williamglenn mentioned, then twitter has already put up two names and there are only six countries to choose from. I'd not want to rely on Twitter or Guido even if I cared which leaders are gay.
    The obvious one is the one Leon put out the rumour about ages ago and he has an unusual marriage arrangement anyway
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258

    I see rumours about another politician's sexuality are going around twitter.

    In a shocking twist I heard that one of the cabinet was monogamous and faithful. Shocking, if true.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    Truss gives civil servants mental arithmetic questions at interview

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1560936636845899777?s=20&t=FoPJJpuwEJH6FhJ5WezmGg
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Good, eventually, morning everyone.
    Interesting read this morning; what has Braverman done right that Patel has done wrong that Patel should be sacked and Braverman and replace her?

    Openly backed Truss?

    Jobs for the sycophants is part of the continuity Johnson legacy.
    Yes, Ms Patel has been curiously quiet! I don't think she's even been about in the constituency very much.
    It's odd, because it's no secret she hates Rishi Sunak. Allegedly made all sorts of allegations about him in private to Tory MPs.

    I can only conclude she hates Liz Truss even more for some reason.
    She's met her?

    And worked with the Foreign Secretary on Rwanda?

    To be fair to Priti Patel, she was never a Boris sycophant.
    Never a Boris sycophant? That's odd since he gave her a prestigious job.

    But the point about Rwanda is a good one!
    The key to understanding Boris's Cabinet appointments is to see them as human shields against the three things he was taking flak for: racism, sexism, and backsliding on Brexit.
    The problem is he also took flak for lying, incompetence and laziness.....Shapps and Williamson would not be the antidote for those.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279
    HYUFD said:

    Truss gives civil servants mental arithmetic questions at interview

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1560936636845899777?s=20&t=FoPJJpuwEJH6FhJ5WezmGg

    Why?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The chat and gossip about how awful Truss will be as PM reminds me of the chat and gossip about Nicola Sturgeon. Driven by dislike and hatred of her party and goals. Elements of misogyny. Sour grapes from people who think their group should be running the party. Fear that she might - just might - end up being good and get things done that they don't want to happen. Playing the woman not the ball. It's not the best level of discussion on PB.

    I don't remember that I thought Sturgeon just walked into the job. I don't think we should be put off saying that awful women are awful because of suggestions of misogyny. Specifics needed. And what we are discussing is for once the topic of the thread.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,308
    edited August 2022
    Dynamo said:

    Matthew Parris doesn't like Liz Truss then? Can someone actually be "potentially dangerous"? Aren't they just dangerous? And talk of "defanging" her implies that she will try to cause changes that the "blob" - and perhaps other parts of the real state too - won't like. That's not the same as being a peabrain at all. But...this is journalism...I shouldn't take the language too seriously.

    If I wanted to nuke the entire world I wouldn't be dangerous at all because I'd have no way of doing it. However, I'd be potentially dangerous if I was going to gain access to the nuclear codes in a few weeks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    boulay said:

    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If
    they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't
    she?
    To be honest it was broad brush general theorising based on ignorance re the LDs.

    I think there are Tory MPs like Alex Chalk who are relatively moderate and not disgusting to the non Tory vote.

    Whilst I imagine LD PPCs would be pissed off if they were dropped there are possibly current sitting moderate Tories in LD target seats where the LD calculation might be that they have experience to an extent and the coup factor as well as the message it sends “ the LDs are the home of sensible centrist former Tories” is worth the disgruntlement.

    Re your last sentence I think any Tory MP who is any good will not be on the radar for advancement with a Truss gov - it’s going to be true believers only I fear!

    Really just idle basic speculation as I was thinking this morning for the first time that since I have been politically aware from a young age it’s truly the first time I haven’t instinctively wanted a Tory gov at next election. I’ve been tribal all my life and was even in 97. Now however I find myself actually disliking a lot of what the current Tory party stand for so if the Lib Dems became a centre right party whilst the Tories tacked further right it would be interesting.

    That's an interesting post.
    I've had a couple of acquaintances recently express similar opinions IRL.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,624
    Very enjoyable article from Matthew Parris.

    The old flatterer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279
    IshmaelZ said:

    The chat and gossip about how awful Truss will be as PM reminds me of the chat and gossip about Nicola Sturgeon. Driven by dislike and hatred of her party and goals. Elements of misogyny. Sour grapes from people who think their group should be running the party. Fear that she might - just might - end up being good and get things done that they don't want to happen. Playing the woman not the ball. It's not the best level of discussion on PB.

    I don't remember that I thought Sturgeon just walked into the job. I don't think we should be put off saying that awful women are awful because of suggestions of misogyny. Specifics needed. And what we are discussing is for once the topic of the thread.
    We are reduced to doing so because there's no proper cricket. And it's a Saturday in August! And at least in much of England it's dry!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    HYUFD said:

    Truss gives civil servants mental arithmetic questions at interview

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1560936636845899777?s=20&t=FoPJJpuwEJH6FhJ5WezmGg

    Why?
    She will only hire those who get the answers wrong, so they can't see her policies don't add up.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,308
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Truss gives civil servants mental arithmetic questions at interview

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1560936636845899777?s=20&t=FoPJJpuwEJH6FhJ5WezmGg

    Why?
    She's a bit of a maths buff herself, so presumably it's a way of asserting her intellectual superiority over that of her underlings. But it does smack a bit of arrogance, narcissism and bullying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started...
    It wasn't his time at Health that did for Clarke's chances of the top job.

    And on the more general point, I don't think any cabinet post is going to be very comfortable over the year or so.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Parris wrote a similarly withering piece about IDS just before he was ousted. I've always thought that might have been influential. But the Tory part has changed massively since then, and Parris's criticisms of Brexit and Boris mean he's now very much a lonely, isolated figure amongst that community.

    They will never forgive him for what he said about Johnson. Very hard to forgive people for being proved right.
    His initial piece wasn't a patch on Hastings. And here's a frankly embarrassing attempt to squeeze a second helping of kudos out of it

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/im-out-to-get-boris
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If
    they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't
    she?
    To be honest it was broad brush general theorising based on ignorance re the LDs.

    I think there are Tory MPs like Alex Chalk who are relatively moderate and not disgusting to the non Tory vote.

    Whilst I imagine LD PPCs would be pissed off if they were dropped there are possibly current sitting moderate Tories in LD target seats where the LD calculation might be that they have experience to an extent and the coup factor as well as the message it sends “ the LDs are the home of sensible centrist former Tories” is worth the disgruntlement.

    Re your last sentence I think any Tory MP who is any good will not be on the radar for advancement with a Truss gov - it’s going to be true believers only I fear!

    Really just idle basic speculation as I was thinking this morning for the first time that since I have been politically aware from a young age it’s truly the first time I haven’t instinctively wanted a Tory gov at next election. I’ve been tribal all my life and was even in 97. Now however I find myself actually disliking a lot of what the current Tory party stand for so if the Lib Dems became a centre right party whilst the Tories tacked further right it would be interesting.

    That's an interesting post.
    I've had a couple of acquaintances recently express similar opinions IRL.

    +1. Voted tory 1979 and ever since. No longer.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,145
    boulay said:

    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If
    they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't
    she?
    To be honest it was broad brush general theorising based on ignorance re the LDs.

    I think there are Tory MPs like Alex Chalk who are relatively moderate and not disgusting to the non Tory vote.

    Whilst I imagine LD PPCs would be pissed off if they were dropped there are possibly current sitting moderate Tories in LD target seats where the LD calculation might be that they have experience to an extent and the coup factor as well as the message it sends “ the LDs are the home of sensible centrist former Tories” is worth the disgruntlement.

    Re your last sentence I think any Tory MP who is any good will not be on the radar for advancement with a Truss gov - it’s going to be true believers only I fear!

    Really just idle basic speculation as I was thinking this morning for the first time that since I have been politically aware from a young age it’s truly the first time I haven’t instinctively wanted a Tory gov at next election. I’ve been tribal all my life and was even in 97. Now however I find myself actually disliking a lot of what the current Tory party stand for so if the Lib Dems became a centre right party whilst the Tories tacked further right it would be interesting.

    I think there would be a potential heavy political cost for Davey. Lib Dems don't know at present where they want to be on a number of questions, and it will be some time before they have recovered unity. Electoral success may work wonders, however.

    Moving forward - I have not heard many LD comments about "taint" recently ie LD people tainted by association with the coalition.
This discussion has been closed.