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Could Liz Truss be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623
    I didn’t think anyone could outdo Boris on the cabinet of all the loonies, but the Truss premiership is shaping up to be the Tory version of Corbyn’s barmy army minus the sensible few.

    It’s like there’s some quantum rule out there: for every Long-Bailey there’s a Rees-Mogg in an alternate dimension; for every Burgon a Braverman and so on.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    Scott_xP said:

    Good morning all

    For anyone not yet convinced the (however brief) Truss premiership is going to be an epic bin fire from beginning to ignominious end, I bring you this



    And apologies to anyone eating breakfast

    I really don't see the issue. Redwood has been a back bench MP, a full time job, all that time, and is a blogger about economical matters. Are you suggesting he's too senile to be competent? If so, the President of the United States would appreciate a word.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    No longer a case of 'and quiet flows the Don.'
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,603
    Sandpit said:

    Test

    Day 4 today, looking forward to it.

    Oh bugger.
    When do they actually get to play for real?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,530
    edited August 2022
    Nigelb said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? ...

    I’m pretty certain she won’t be unique in that respect.
    No lawyer who hopes to return to practising the law in any meaningful way would act as Braverman has. She never had much of a legal career. Truss will need to find another one like that.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623

    Scott_xP said:

    Good morning all

    For anyone not yet convinced the (however brief) Truss premiership is going to be an epic bin fire from beginning to ignominious end, I bring you this



    And apologies to anyone eating breakfast

    I really don't see the issue. Redwood has been a back bench MP, a full time job, all that time, and is a blogger about economical matters. Are you suggesting he's too senile to be competent? If so, the President of the United States would appreciate a word.
    It’s the Tory equivalent of Brown’s Labour government bringing back Tony Benn to the cabinet.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    Nigelb said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? ...

    I’m pretty certain she won’t be unique in that respect.
    No lawyer who hopes to return to practising the law in any meaningful way would act as Braverman has. She never had much of a legal career. Truss will need to find another one like that.

    Understood.
    I’m pretty sure she won’t be unique in that respect.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175

    I really don't see the issue. Redwood has been a back bench MP, a full time job, all that time, and is a blogger about economical matters. Are you suggesting he's too senile to be competent? If so, the President of the United States would appreciate a word.

    Not at all. He's not senile, just spectacularly wrong about almost everything.

    The problem will be all the things he says, and all the things he does.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,025
    10% Labour lead with BMG.

    Lab 42%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%
    Green 5%
    Ref UK 3%

    Polling 16th-18th August
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    28% approval after first 100 days in office.

    That’s a challenge for Liz, rather than a prediction.

    Yoon's approval rating stays below 30% for 4th straight week: poll
    http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=334703
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Test

    Day 4 today, looking forward to it.

    Oh bugger.
    Wonder how much England's rapid defeat cost the ECB? Must have been a few million pounds.
    Lord’s holds 31,000, so at £100 each that’s more than £3m. Plus all the catering that got cancelled.
    I misread 'Lord's' as @Leon and I was about to suggest they had lost around £100 million on the booze alone...

    On a serious note, it might lose them almost as much money as the Hundred.
  • Penddu2 said:

    Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

    The United Kingdom is broken, with the Unconservative and formerly unionist party now an English populist party that can't even propose the obvious solution to their voters ills - home rule.

    I've written a thread header on the subject, must get round to submitting it...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Good morning all

    For anyone not yet convinced the (however brief) Truss premiership is going to be an epic bin fire from beginning to ignominious end, I bring you this



    And apologies to anyone eating breakfast

    I really don't see the issue. Redwood has been a back bench MP, a full time job, all that time, and is a blogger about economical matters. Are you suggesting he's too senile to be competent? If so, the President of the United States would appreciate a word.
    It’s the Tory equivalent of Brown’s Labour government bringing back Tony Benn to the cabinet.

    TBF, Tony Benn would have made a better minister than Bob Ainsworth.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,348

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623

    10% Labour lead with BMG.

    Lab 42%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%
    Green 5%
    Ref UK 3%

    Polling 16th-18th August

    It looks like what’s happened is Labour’s policy proposals have firmed up support in the centre left, rather than just taking big chunks out of Tory support. LLG remains quite stable at 58% here. But rather than 7 or 8% Green and 13% LD it’s a more decent Labour score.
  • On topic: The Tories can be trusted to do whatever serves the Tories. So if in a year's time they remain deeply in the shit, the serious rumblings will be there. And into 2024? Just you watch them move against her.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    TimS said:

    It’s the Tory equivalent of Brown’s Labour government bringing back Tony Benn to the cabinet.

    More like Starmer offering Dennis Skinner a job...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    Buongiorno


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    Scott_xP said:

    I really don't see the issue. Redwood has been a back bench MP, a full time job, all that time, and is a blogger about economical matters. Are you suggesting he's too senile to be competent? If so, the President of the United States would appreciate a word.

    Not at all. He's not senile, just spectacularly wrong about almost everything.

    The problem will be all the things he says, and all the things he does.
    Being enthusiastically ignored by successive Governments isn't the same as being wrong. If we'd listened to Redwood on domestic energy supply for example, we wouldn't be facing the current situation.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,918
    There is more than a hint of Corbyn about Truss. A move away from centre , leaning into all the old tropes and reviving the greatest (miss) hits of one wing of the party. Obviously she lacks Corbyns integrity and common touch.

    Bringing back Redwood, reminds me of when Englebert Humperdink was brought back to represent the U.K. at Eurovision.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    edited August 2022
    There were suggestions that this was a fake, but looking at flight paths they are doing takeoffs and landings in opposite directions, which would be consistent with a problem at one end of the runway.

    The #1 flight tracked at the moment, is a Jet2 from East Midlands to Faro, which just diverted to Nantes with a problem of some sort. It landed safely.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623
    Scott_xP said:

    TimS said:

    It’s the Tory equivalent of Brown’s Labour government bringing back Tony Benn to the cabinet.

    More like Starmer offering Dennis Skinner a job...
    I thought about suggesting Skinner but Redwood did at least have cabinet experience.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    Jonathan said:

    There is more than a hint of Corbyn about Truss. A move away from centre , leaning into all the old tropes and reviving the greatest (miss) hits of one wing of the party. Obviously she lacks Corbyns integrity and common touch.

    Bringing back Redwood, reminds me of when Englebert Humperdink was brought back to represent the U.K. at Eurovision.

    Corbyn's integrity? Jesus.

    Please don't be encouraged by @SouthamObserver 's sub Damien McBride bullshit.

    You're better than that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Nigelb said:

    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501

    That implies he's spent time in reality.

    Oh, sorry, not him personally?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    Jonathan said:

    There is more than a hint of Corbyn about Truss. A move away from centre , leaning into all the old tropes and reviving the greatest (miss) hits of one wing of the party. Obviously she lacks Corbyns integrity and common touch.

    Bringing back Redwood, reminds me of when Englebert Humperdink was brought back to represent the U.K. at Eurovision.

    Corbyn's integrity? Jesus.

    Please don't be encouraged by @SouthamObserver 's sub Damien McBride bullshit.

    You're better than that.
    It reads better if you think of that bit as irony.
    As I did.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,592
    Sandpit said:

    There were suggestions that this was a fake, but looking at flight paths they are doing takeoffs and landings in opposite directions, which would be consistent with a problem at one end of the runway.

    The #1 flight tracked at the moment, is a Jet2 from East Midlands to Faro, which just diverted to Nantes with a problem of some sort. It landed safely.
    There's also this:

    https://twitter.com/IthakaOrange/status/1560891837539393537?s=20&t=9F5G5hGPMQsh-NdkSo9yBQ
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,592
    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
  • Jonathan said:

    There is more than a hint of Corbyn about Truss. A move away from centre , leaning into all the old tropes and reviving the greatest (miss) hits of one wing of the party. Obviously she lacks Corbyns integrity and common touch.

    Bringing back Redwood, reminds me of when Englebert Humperdink was brought back to represent the U.K. at Eurovision.

    There's a definite echo there- they both decided on their policy solutions to everything (people's socialism / Freedom!) decades ago and haven't let reality divert them from the true path.

    Unlike Jez, Truss is being given two years and an 80 seat majority to play with.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,145
    edited August 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, we have seen *exactly* the current scenario play out before.

    In 1973, upset with the US's support for Israel, OPEC announced it would cease selling oil to the US, and would impose strict quotas on oil production.

    It lurched the developed world into a seven year crisis.

    But at the end of it, the Western world had developed new energy sources (whether oil and gas from the North Sea or Alaska, or France's nuclear power programme), and had dramatically cut energy consumption. World oil demand bottomed out almost ten years after the initial shock, 15% below 1973 levels.

    We'll see exactly the same again: new sources of gas will be developed (Mozambique, for example), and the Western world will reduce its demand for natural gas, by building more renewables.

    Russia, when it starts exporting again, will be exporting into a very different world.

    How ironic it will be if the historians of the future are able to point to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the trigger for the massive development of renewables that saved us all from climate catastrophe.
    It may encourage some to get on the renewables wagon, or move faster.

    But also the benign trends of steady reductions of a couple of % a year in energy consumption have been in place across most of Western Europe for a long time now. IMO Eastern Europe will now follow by adjusting the energy intensity of their growth, perhaps.


  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    For a second I thought it was April 1st !
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
    Zebedee
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501

    That implies he's spent time in reality.

    Oh, sorry, not him personally?
    I guess his decision to back Sunak, once it’s clear he’s going to lose, is not unconnected with his saying he doesn’t expect to return to the front bench.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433

    Sandpit said:

    There were suggestions that this was a fake, but looking at flight paths they are doing takeoffs and landings in opposite directions, which would be consistent with a problem at one end of the runway.

    The #1 flight tracked at the moment, is a Jet2 from East Midlands to Faro, which just diverted to Nantes with a problem of some sort. It landed safely.
    There's also this:

    https://twitter.com/IthakaOrange/status/1560891837539393537?s=20&t=9F5G5hGPMQsh-NdkSo9yBQ
    Oh dear, that will wake up the Russian elites in their Sochi dachas.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,708

    Jonathan said:

    There is more than a hint of Corbyn about Truss. A move away from centre , leaning into all the old tropes and reviving the greatest (miss) hits of one wing of the party. Obviously she lacks Corbyns integrity and common touch.

    Bringing back Redwood, reminds me of when Englebert Humperdink was brought back to represent the U.K. at Eurovision.

    There's a definite echo there- they both decided on their policy solutions to everything (people's socialism / Freedom!) decades ago and haven't let reality divert them from the true path.

    Unlike Jez, Truss is being given two years and an 80 seat majority to play with.
    The long term damage she could do. Christ.

    The blues will have a Labour style rebuild on their hands I think.

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,708
    nico679 said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    For a second I thought it was April 1st !
    The Rees-Mogg / Redwood articles have to be a joke.

    Or Liz Truss really is tone death. Which to be fair, she probably is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno


    Florence?
    Zebedee
    But we’ve just woken up.

    Anyway, Siena is nicer.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,368
    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't she?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,918
    Hang on, can I check something. Is the Tory party actually about to make Liz Truss British prime minister?

    It’s a little mind boggling. Is she truly the best PM the conservatives can offer the country right now?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,524

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    If this and the Redwood stories are true then there are going to be a fair number of Tory MPs that will look at these gargoyles and bed blockers and see that they are preventing their own rise to the sunlit uplands of power. Truss would be far better doing over the whole cabinet, whose loyalty she must surely doubt anyway, and creating a new cadre of Truss loyalists. Indeed unless she does this then rebellions and backstabbing will resume with an even greater force. Truss must manage her MPs, and going with these kinds of Cabinet choices will kill any chance of a coherrent Parliamentary party and see her own position coming under challenge within just a few months. Listening to Frost and the other nutters will simply not work.
  • nico679 said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    For a second I thought it was April 1st !
    The Rees-Mogg / Redwood articles have to be a joke.

    Or Liz Truss really is tone death. Which to be fair, she probably is.
    I assumed they had been fed to the press by the Sunak camp. To try and provoke a black swan event to bring Truss crashing down.

    Perhaps not. She is - as you point out - not just tone deaf but utterly oblivious to reality. So yes, why not Moggster as Know Your Place Secretary and the Vulcan as Child Poverty Secretary to the Treasury. It'll be dead popular.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 359
    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The examples you cite are seats where the LDs have spent the past three years building up rival candidates, credible local councils (three quarters of Cheltenham borough councillors are LD) and campaigning teams as Tory support has collapsed: in my Blue Wall constituency, there are now virtually no Tory activists able to walk unaided - and next to no Tory local councillors - left. Any defecting Tory MP will simply bring with him (and it almost always IS a "him") all the objections Opposition voters have to Johnsonism and its equally appalling Trussite successor.

    There may be a couple of Red Wall seats where the electorate might accept an ex Tory who defects to Labour - but there too, it's virtually certain that the Tory concerned invested so much energy in 2019 into badmouthing Labour that the Labour party won't accept them.

    Almost by definition: any Tory MP who survived Johnson's destruction of moderate Conservatism in 2019 will be unacceptable in the Blue and Red Walls to LD/Lab parties and/or voters. The two important questions about the next 24 months are:
    - Can Lab, LD and Greens quietly, in the time available, find a way of getting just one, electable, non-Tory Parliamentary candidate into each Red and Blue wall constituency, and agree on how to get adequate activist support into campaigning for just that one? Because motivating Lab and LD activists to aim their fire ONLY at the real enemy is REALLY tough.
    - Can the SNP be persuaded to avoid the suicide option of providing silent support for a Tory minority government by failing to accept Starmer as PM?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,799
    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,918

    nico679 said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    For a second I thought it was April 1st !
    The Rees-Mogg / Redwood articles have to be a joke.

    Or Liz Truss really is tone death. Which to be fair, she probably is.
    I assumed they had been fed to the press by the Sunak camp. To try and provoke a black swan event to bring Truss crashing down.

    Perhaps not. She is - as you point out - not just tone deaf but utterly oblivious to reality. So yes, why not Moggster as Know Your Place Secretary and the Vulcan as Child Poverty Secretary to the Treasury. It'll be dead popular.
    I suspect Truss is susceptible to believing her own bullshit. If she becomes PM, she will have all the evidence she needs of her own greatness.

    This is a problem. I wouldn’t be surprised if she goes looking for her own Falklands moment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    Cicero said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    If this and the Redwood stories are true then there are going to be a fair number of Tory MPs that will look at these gargoyles and bed blockers and see that they are preventing their own rise to the sunlit uplands of power. Truss would be far better doing over the whole cabinet, whose loyalty she must surely doubt anyway, and creating a new cadre of Truss loyalists. Indeed unless she does this then rebellions and backstabbing will resume with an even greater force. Truss must manage her MPs, and going with these kinds of Cabinet choices will kill any chance of a coherrent Parliamentary party and see her own position coming under challenge within just a few months. Listening to Frost and the other nutters will simply not work.
    Maybe it’s all misdirection in order to surprise on the upside ?

    Seems unlikely, but anything is possible. No one can be absolutely sure of how a new PM is going to fare until they’re actually in office, even if we’ve all pretty well made up out minds.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501

    That implies he's spent time in reality.

    Oh, sorry, not him personally?
    Gove is not all bad.

    I grew up in the 90s and it was curious how the figure of Thatcher seemed to hang over British politics. Obviously I had nothing to compare it to but there were always jokes about Tories wanting her to return or the leader needing to be seen as having Thatcher's approval. I suspect the members are fed up with being told they need to compromise with the electorate by having a Cameroon, Theresa May-like moderate and want to re-live the glory days. I thought the talk of Truss enjoying performing Madonna on karaoke was very apt.

    'Doc we need to get back to 1985.'
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    Parris is right of course. Truss is a ridiculous choice for PM. Through a combination of graft, discipline, political judgement and the most enormous dollops of luck - this being the latest - Keir Starmer is now in my judgment heading for Downing St. Labour minority government has moved from stretch target to central expectation and a Labour working majority has moved from pie-in-the-sky to take its place as the stretch target.

    Please note - and I do want to correct this premise because I keep hearing it and it's wrong and will cost people money if they bet on it - Starmer does NOT have to generate enthusiasm in the country, let alone inspire, in order to convert the opportunity he's been given. All he has to do is not make any silly mistakes such as announcing any policy that hasn't first been focus-grouped to death and shown to be popular with 2 particular groups - the floating voters of middle England and ex Labour voters in the redwall.
  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 107
    edited August 2022
    Matthew Parris is an entertaining commentator; I enjoy reading his columns.
    However, ever since his almost Darwinian (to borrow a Johnson adjective) dismissal, in 2014, of Clacton as a place that doesn't matter, he has become both more entertaining and more deranged. He accuses Truss of lunacy but has consistently demonstrated a greater tendency towards 'wandering womb' than she ever has. Not a bad thing, it makes for good columns, but it does qualify his opinions.

    As regards Truss herself, I think we will get fiery and occasionally reckless rhetoric but comparatively moderate policies in most areas. I rate neither her nor Starmer as GE campaigners - neither is charismatic, and neither is particularly scary.
    I think it is likely that, after the next election, the Tories will be the largest party in a hung parliament, likely putting them out of government. Badenoch is then the heir apparent.
    Then again, I have predicted every nationwide vote the wrong way since (and including) 2015, so my opinion is even less useful, and far, far less entertaining, than Mathew Parris's.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    Nigelb said:

    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501

    Lol

    I like Gove. He’s one of the most interesting and unpredictable tories of recent decades.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Truss found a use for him. Put him in an unloved, stale department and give him space to think the unthinkable.

    Home Sec?
  • Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    edited August 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Parris is right of course. Truss is a ridiculous choice for PM. Through a combination of graft, discipline, political judgement and the most enormous dollops of luck - this being the latest - Keir Starmer is now in my judgment heading for Downing St. Labour minority government has moved from stretch target to central expectation and a Labour working majority has moved from pie-in-the-sky to take its place as the stretch target.

    Please note - and I do want to correct this premise because I keep hearing it and it's wrong and will cost people money if they bet on it - Starmer does NOT have to generate enthusiasm in the country, let alone inspire, in order to convert the opportunity he's been given. All he has to do is not make any silly mistakes such as announcing any policy that hasn't first been focus-grouped to death and shown to be popular with 2 particular groups - the floating voters of middle England and ex Labour voters in the redwall.

    He's the man who doesn't need to outrun the bear.

    His problem is that the 'bear' of the many deep-seated problems Britain faces won't be content with devouring the Tories.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    How much blame should be attached to William Hague for changing the rules on electing Tory leaders to allow the members a final say? I suppose he was leading a rump party and couldn't afford to lose lots of activists. We're moving to an increasingly Presidential-style leader where the President is chosen by a very small unrepresentative section of people. It's nuts.
  • Asked which of Starmer, Sunak and Truss had the best plan for dealing with rising energy bills, 25 per cent chose Starmer, 11 per cent Sunak and 8 per cent Truss. However, the biggest score was 35 per cent for none of the above with 21 per cent saying they did not know.

    Truss oh dear dear
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,799

    Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely

    What from 15% down when she's already the obvious winner of the contest? Really cannot see it. Boris's masterly inactivity as caretaker, whilst understandable in certain respects, in the face of the CoL crisis is causing real problems. This election campaign is looking painfully self indulgent right now. It is fine for opposition but the Tories will surely choose not to do this again in government (assuming that they are in government again, of course).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't she?
    I wouldn't rush to take Tory MPs defecting to either Labour or LD, as it won't make a dent in an eighty seat majority. Let them swing in the wind.
  • How much blame should be attached to William Hague for changing the rules on electing Tory leaders to allow the members a final say? I suppose he was leading a rump party and couldn't afford to lose lots of activists. We're moving to an increasingly Presidential-style leader where the President is chosen by a very small unrepresentative section of people. It's nuts.

    In Government Labour members don’t get a say. I feel like this was a good move.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    Truss will get a bounce. Tory lead still highly likely

    A couple of percent better after the party conference tops. Then all downhill from there...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501

    Lol

    I like Gove. He’s one of the most interesting and unpredictable tories of recent decades.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Truss found a use for him. Put him in an unloved, stale department and give him space to think the unthinkable.

    Home Sec?
    Put him back in charge of “levelling up”. He’s got two years, to convince the red wall voters to keep voting for the Tories. There’s loads of ‘government getting out of the way’ policies he can enact in that position.
  • nico679 said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    For a second I thought it was April 1st !
    The Rees-Mogg / Redwood articles have to be a joke.

    Or Liz Truss really is tone death. Which to be fair, she probably is.
    I assumed they had been fed to the press by the Sunak camp. To try and provoke a black swan event to bring Truss crashing down.

    Perhaps not. She is - as you point out - not just tone deaf but utterly oblivious to reality. So yes, why not Moggster as Know Your Place Secretary and the Vulcan as Child Poverty Secretary to the Treasury. It'll be dead popular.
    My guess is the JRM and Redwood rumours come from the outer fringes of Team Truss rather than the lady herself. And even then Redwood is only touted as a bag-carrier.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    edited August 2022
    Anyone thinking of backing Sunak can get better odds on betfair’s “Truss Vote %” market, currently.

    I haven’t done the maths, but to me it looks arbable against the outright market, if anyone has cash sitting in their BF account, doing nothing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    How much blame should be attached to William Hague for changing the rules on electing Tory leaders to allow the members a final say? I suppose he was leading a rump party and couldn't afford to lose lots of activists. We're moving to an increasingly Presidential-style leader where the President is chosen by a very small unrepresentative section of people. It's nuts.

    In Government Labour members don’t get a say. I feel like this was a good move.
    I don't think that's correct. I believe the rules are the same except that when the leader is Prime Minister they can only be removed by a vote of 50% of delegates at a party conference, not by triggering a leadership challenge.

    It just happens that on the two occasions Labour has changed leader in government the first was before Michael Foot gave members a say and the second Brown was unopposed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,341
    The Tories are already taking the piss, especially if the rumours of Rees-Mogg as Levelling Up secretary are true. To impose another leader, selected by a narrow group of largely southern male pensioners on us, would take the piss to extremes.

    I have no great hopes for Starmer but the Tories need to be out of power and rethink seriously who they are and what they want to do for the country. The current lot are an undisciplined rabble, even if one or two may occasionally do something worthwhile.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,883
    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If
    they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't
    she?
    To be honest it was broad brush general theorising based on ignorance re the LDs.

    I think there are Tory MPs like Alex Chalk who are relatively moderate and not disgusting to the non Tory vote.

    Whilst I imagine LD PPCs would be pissed off if they were dropped there are possibly current sitting moderate Tories in LD target seats where the LD calculation might be that they have experience to an extent and the coup factor as well as the message it sends “ the LDs are the home of sensible centrist former Tories” is worth the disgruntlement.

    Re your last sentence I think any Tory MP who is any good will not be on the radar for advancement with a Truss gov - it’s going to be true believers only I fear!

    Really just idle basic speculation as I was thinking this morning for the first time that since I have been politically aware from a young age it’s truly the first time I haven’t instinctively wanted a Tory gov at next election. I’ve been tribal all my life and was even in 97. Now however I find myself actually disliking a lot of what the current Tory party stand for so if the Lib Dems became a centre right party whilst the Tories tacked further right it would be interesting.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Parris is right of course. Truss is a ridiculous choice for PM. Through a combination of graft, discipline, political judgement and the most enormous dollops of luck - this being the latest - Keir Starmer is now in my judgment heading for Downing St. Labour minority government has moved from stretch target to central expectation and a Labour working majority has moved from pie-in-the-sky to take its place as the stretch target.

    Please note - and I do want to correct this premise because I keep hearing it and it's wrong and will cost people money if they bet on it - Starmer does NOT have to generate enthusiasm in the country, let alone inspire, in order to convert the opportunity he's been given. All he has to do is not make any silly mistakes such as announcing any policy that hasn't first been focus-grouped to death and shown to be popular with 2 particular groups - the floating voters of middle England and ex Labour voters in the redwall.

    He's the man who doesn't need to outrun the bear.

    His problem is that the 'bear' of the many deep-seated problems Britain faces won't be content with devouring the Tories.
    Yes, I'm talking here with just one hat on - my 'next GE betting' one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    edited August 2022
    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started.

    In September the Nurses will vote to strike, in October the junior doctors too. There are major staff shortages across Health and social care. It will be a car crash, and Sunak doesn't have the financial or political resources to salvage the situation. I am not sure anyone does.

    He should sit on the back benches and say "I told you so..."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    I have to say that Kwasi Kwarteng has an impressive CV, won University Challenge, has written books. Wonder why he didn't stand for the leadership?
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    Sandpit said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501

    Lol

    I like Gove. He’s one of the most interesting and unpredictable tories of recent decades.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Truss found a use for him. Put him in an unloved, stale department and give him space to think the unthinkable.

    Home Sec?
    Put him back in charge of “levelling up”. He’s got two years, to convince the red wall voters to keep voting for the Tories. There’s loads of ‘government getting out of the way’ policies he can enact in that position.
    You think red wallers are that thick?

    “Government getting out the way” ain’t what they were promised, nor what they voted for, when they voted for “levelling up.”

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories are already taking the piss, especially if the rumours of Rees-Mogg as Levelling Up secretary are true. To impose another leader, selected by a narrow group of largely southern male pensioners on us, would take the piss to extremes.

    I have no great hopes for Starmer but the Tories need to be out of power and rethink seriously who they are and what they want to do for the country. The current lot are an undisciplined rabble, even if one or two may occasionally do something worthwhile.

    Although to be fair only one Minister of Health has ever become Prime Minister - Neville Chamberlain.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    According to wiki Kwasi was given a £300 Lenovo tablet as a gift by Saudi Aramco. Hopefully he handed it straight over to the authorities.
  • I have to say that Kwasi Kwarteng has an impressive CV, won University Challenge, has written books. Wonder why he didn't stand for the leadership?

    You think it is about time we tried an Old Etonian Prime Minister?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    Unless Labour gets a huge poll lead I can't see Truss being replaced. She also now has more declared MPs backing her than Sunak
  • Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started.

    In September the Nurses will vote to strike, in October the junior doctors too. There are major staff shortages across Health and social care. It will be a car crash, and Sunak doesn't have the financial or political resources to salvage the situation. I am not sure anyone does.

    He should sit on the back benches and say "I told you so..."
    Much the same goes for education right now.

    If Badenoch is sent there, it will be elevation and immolation in one elegant move.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280

    I have to say that Kwasi Kwarteng has an impressive CV, won University Challenge, has written books. Wonder why he didn't stand for the leadership?

    You think it is about time we tried an Old Etonian Prime Minister?
    He could seek to restore the sullied reputation of a great school.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    I have to say that Kwasi Kwarteng has an impressive CV, won University Challenge, has written books. Wonder why he didn't stand for the leadership?

    As Truss promised him Chancellor, after which he would stand for the leadership next time
  • Necklacegate. Did anyone notice Liz Truss had tucked *that* necklace inside her dress when she reappeared for questions at the hustings yesterday. I do not think she has done that before, although I've not checked all the videos. Did someone have a word halfway through? If so, she might not have known what @Leon thinks it signifies.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,039
    Flanner said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The examples you cite are seats where the LDs have spent the past three years building up rival candidates, credible local councils (three quarters of Cheltenham borough councillors are LD) and campaigning teams as Tory support has collapsed: in my Blue Wall constituency, there are now virtually no Tory activists able to walk unaided - and next to no Tory local councillors - left. Any defecting Tory MP will simply bring with him (and it almost always IS a "him") all the objections Opposition voters have to Johnsonism and its equally appalling Trussite successor.

    There may be a couple of Red Wall seats where the electorate might accept an ex Tory who defects to Labour - but there too, it's virtually certain that the Tory concerned invested so much energy in 2019 into badmouthing Labour that the Labour party won't accept them.

    Almost by definition: any Tory MP who survived Johnson's destruction of moderate Conservatism in 2019 will be unacceptable in the Blue and Red Walls to LD/Lab parties and/or voters. The two important questions about the next 24 months are:
    - Can Lab, LD and Greens quietly, in the time available, find a way of getting just one, electable, non-Tory Parliamentary candidate into each Red and Blue wall constituency, and agree on how to get adequate activist support into campaigning for just that one? Because motivating Lab and LD activists to aim their fire ONLY at the real enemy is REALLY tough.
    - Can the SNP be persuaded to avoid the suicide option of providing silent support for a Tory minority government by failing to accept Starmer as PM?
    It's simply a misunderstanding of how politics works to think that defectors won't be welcomed by Labour or LibDems (cf. Christian Wakefield) - it's evidence of Opposition momentum, and as such will always be greeted with enthusiasm. Where a rival candidate is in place and already built up, another reward will be found, such as the Lords. People don't recall the details, merely that support for the Government is ebbing away.

    I agree with the second point, and I think that will work without too much prompting in most places. There will be Lab and LD candidates everywhere so people have the option of giving support (not everyone is a tactical voter) but I've no intention of spending the election in my Blue Wall constituency unless it happens to coincide with my Borough election, and LibDem friends in Labour-leaning seats like Broxtowe are also looking elsewhere. Green activists tend to be less willing to be flexible but aren't usually that numerous. I also think there is zero chance of the SNP propping up a Tory government, though Starmer will hope to gain enough to govern with LibDem support alone.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    ping said:

    Sandpit said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501

    Lol

    I like Gove. He’s one of the most interesting and unpredictable tories of recent decades.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Truss found a use for him. Put him in an unloved, stale department and give him space to think the unthinkable.

    Home Sec?
    Put him back in charge of “levelling up”. He’s got two years, to convince the red wall voters to keep voting for the Tories. There’s loads of ‘government getting out of the way’ policies he can enact in that position.
    You think red wallers are that thick?

    “Government getting out the way” ain’t what they were promised, nor what they voted for, when they voted for “levelling up.”

    'We're from the government, and we're here not to help' should go down a treat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    nico679 said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    For a second I thought it was April 1st !
    The Rees-Mogg / Redwood articles have to be a joke.

    Or Liz Truss really is tone death. Which to be fair, she probably is.
    I assumed they had been fed to the press by the Sunak camp. To try and provoke a black swan event to bring Truss crashing down.

    Perhaps not. She is - as you point out - not just tone deaf but utterly oblivious to reality. So yes, why not Moggster as Know Your Place Secretary and the Vulcan as Child Poverty Secretary to the Treasury. It'll be dead popular.
    Cleverly to be Foreign Secretary, Braverman Home Secretary, Badenoch Education Secretary or Culture. Coffey Chief Whip and Javid NI amongst the other likely Truss Cabinet appointments
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Penddu2 said:

    Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

    I did.
    ‘Rose without trace’ has become a cliché but I can’t think of anyone to whom it applies more than Frosty currently. In a strong field he embodies the Unionist Brexiteer spouting reactionary threats to order, usually in the house paper of that weird ideology the Tele. I sense even HYUFD might find him a tad extreme.
    As I noted the other day, he came to political notice employing the European courts to try and block Scottish health legislation.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    ping said:

    Sandpit said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gove: “holiday from reality”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62613501

    Lol

    I like Gove. He’s one of the most interesting and unpredictable tories of recent decades.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Truss found a use for him. Put him in an unloved, stale department and give him space to think the unthinkable.

    Home Sec?
    Put him back in charge of “levelling up”. He’s got two years, to convince the red wall voters to keep voting for the Tories. There’s loads of ‘government getting out of the way’ policies he can enact in that position.
    You think red wallers are that thick?

    “Government getting out the way” ain’t what they were promised, nor what they voted for, when they voted for “levelling up.”

    I expect relatively low turnout in the red wall. Labour did little for us when in power either and have yet to tell us why we should vote for them. The Tories have not delivered for us but there is no,evidence labour will either. Labour seems to just think the red wall is full of sinners ready to repent.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,368
    Foxy said:

    ClippP said:

    boulay said:

    Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

    It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

    I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

    The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

    The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

    Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

    The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

    Interesting speculation, Mr Boulay. But some questions do arise, don't they? Who precisely are the current Tory MPs who would be welcome to the Lib Dems, and indeed to Labour? Johnson drove out all the decent respectable ones some time ago.

    And then what is supposed to happen to the current Lib Dem PPCs, who are looking forward to winning their seats from the Tories next time?

    And thirdly, what is the "extra quality" that you can see in these current Tory MPs? If they were that good, Liz Truss would surely want to have them in her cabinet, wouldn't she?
    I wouldn't rush to take Tory MPs defecting to either Labour or LD, as it won't make a dent in an eighty seat majority. Let them swing in the wind.
    Yes indeed, Dr Foxy. There were a fair few defections of Conservative and Labour MPs to the Lib Dems in the run-up to the "Anti-Brexit" election in 2019. I have spotted one or two of them out and about in recent Westminster by-elections - and good on them! But the majority seem to have disappeared without trace. Was their only motivation to hang onto their seats? Lib Dems will be right to be sceptical about other Tory MPs who want to cross the floor.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started.

    In September the Nurses will vote to strike, in October the junior doctors too. There are major staff shortages across Health and social care. It will be a car crash, and Sunak doesn't have the financial or political resources to salvage the situation. I am not sure anyone does.

    He should sit on the back benches and say "I told you so..."
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories are already taking the piss, especially if the rumours of Rees-Mogg as Levelling Up secretary are true. To impose another leader, selected by a narrow group of largely southern male pensioners on us, would take the piss to extremes.

    I have no great hopes for Starmer but the Tories need to be out of power and rethink seriously who they are and what they want to do for the country. The current lot are an undisciplined rabble, even if one or two may occasionally do something worthwhile.

    Although to be fair only one Minister of Health has ever become Prime Minister - Neville Chamberlain.
    Technically all PMs from 1913 on to 1948 were responsible for a NHS - the state funded Highlands and Islands Medical Service (HIMS) (albeit geographically limited, and means tested charged for at a low level). Though that would have been through the Secretary of State for Scotland.

    Edit: come to think of it, did any SoSfS become PM?
  • “There is no provision for someone to be allowed to travel to the UK to seek asylum or temporary refuge,” @ukhomeoffice tells senior Afghan judge in hiding, refusing her entry to UK to join relatives here.

    Therefore people have to break the law to come here. So there goes the argument against people coming over the channel. Great work UK Gov
  • novanova Posts: 472
    TimS said:

    10% Labour lead with BMG.

    Lab 42%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%
    Green 5%
    Ref UK 3%

    Polling 16th-18th August

    It looks like what’s happened is Labour’s policy proposals have firmed up support in the centre left, rather than just taking big chunks out of Tory support. LLG remains quite stable at 58% here. But rather than 7 or 8% Green and 13% LD it’s a more decent Labour score.
    Not sure we can read much into it as it's almost identical to the last BMG poll, which was about a week before Boris resigned (42,32,11,4,4,4).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    Times read:

    Liz Truss begins filling key Cabinet roles as allies say contest over

    Kwarteng - chancellor

    Braverman - home sec

    Sunak likely to be offered health, Zahawi alternative

    Cleverly - FCDO

    Rees-Mogg - levelling up or DIT

    Coffey - chief whip

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4162ba9a-1fee-11ed-b7c3-8b288ab55a56?shareToken=c6290aa36e9041ef3c842fa66d9cb7ca
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Morning.
    So have things moved to Labour in the back of that energy policy? Perhaps, but if so its purely imo on the basis of 'someone proposed something' cos its a bollocks policy. On the other hand, we only have YouGov. The BMG out today is completely unmoved at 10% lead, but we dont have them as regularly so no idea if it would have also done the hokey cokey in the intervening period. Opinium tonight and Chris Curtis has ramped it up with the 'eyes' emoji so likely its either gone the other way (1 ir 2% lead?) Or has finally shifted to Labour a bit more decisively (6 or 7 lead?). Given opiniums 'undecideds' smoothing, any lurch of a few % to Labour would indeed be a sign of direct support switching.
    He could of course also or rather be ramping the 'leader' ratings......which had Truss up a squeak last time out
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 357
    Suppose that Truss proves to be as unreliable as has been suggested? What would be the point of replacing her if the replacement would be somebody equally unstable or unsuitable.

    Unless the Conservative leadership rules are changed so that the party's MPs get the final choice on who is Prime Minister when the party is in government there is no point in holding another Tory leadership election before the general election.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    Exc from @JackElsom

    Sir Keir Starmer will drastically cut his Labour party conference speech to make it less boring

    Shadow ministers being told to trim theirs to just 5 mins

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19562895/keir-starmer-conference-speech-shorter?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    Scott_xP said:

    Times read:

    Liz Truss begins filling key Cabinet roles as allies say contest over

    Kwarteng - chancellor

    Braverman - home sec

    Sunak likely to be offered health, Zahawi alternative

    Cleverly - FCDO

    Rees-Mogg - levelling up or DIT

    Coffey - chief whip

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4162ba9a-1fee-11ed-b7c3-8b288ab55a56?shareToken=c6290aa36e9041ef3c842fa66d9cb7ca

    Good thinking for the LDs to install a sleeper to take over and ruin the Tory party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    edited August 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started.

    In September the Nurses will vote to strike, in October the junior doctors too. There are major staff shortages across Health and social care. It will be a car crash, and Sunak doesn't have the financial or political resources to salvage the situation. I am not sure anyone does.

    He should sit on the back benches and say "I told you so..."
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories are already taking the piss, especially if the rumours of Rees-Mogg as Levelling Up secretary are true. To impose another leader, selected by a narrow group of largely southern male pensioners on us, would take the piss to extremes.

    I have no great hopes for Starmer but the Tories need to be out of power and rethink seriously who they are and what they want to do for the country. The current lot are an undisciplined rabble, even if one or two may occasionally do something worthwhile.

    Although to be fair only one Minister of Health has ever become Prime Minister - Neville Chamberlain.
    Technically all PMs from 1913 on to 1948 were responsible for a NHS - the state funded Highlands and Islands Medical Service (HIMS) (albeit geographically limited, and means tested charged for at a low level). Though that would have been through the Secretary of State for Scotland.
    Since only one Secretary of State for Scotland has ever become Prime Minister (and that was before 1913) that doesn't alter the premise.

    Interestingly, the SoSS in question was also the last Chief Secretary of Ireland to rise to the office of Prime Minister.
  • HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    For a second I thought it was April 1st !
    The Rees-Mogg / Redwood articles have to be a joke.

    Or Liz Truss really is tone death. Which to be fair, she probably is.
    I assumed they had been fed to the press by the Sunak camp. To try and provoke a black swan event to bring Truss crashing down.

    Perhaps not. She is - as you point out - not just tone deaf but utterly oblivious to reality. So yes, why not Moggster as Know Your Place Secretary and the Vulcan as Child Poverty Secretary to the Treasury. It'll be dead popular.
    Cleverly to be Foreign Secretary, Braverman Home Secretary, Badenoch Education Secretary or Culture. Coffey Chief Whip and Javid NI amongst the other likely Truss Cabinet appointments
    You're closer to the mind of the Conservative party than most of us... how plausible does that Cabinet seem to you? Because to me, it screams "we don't care what happens next time, we have two years, let's have some fun."
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,764

    I have to say that Kwasi Kwarteng has an impressive CV, won University Challenge, has written books. Wonder why he didn't stand for the leadership?

    He has been standing firm is and right behind the new leader.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    The Tory MPs switching their allegiance from Rishi to Truss are doing so with all the dignity and professionalism of Yosser Hughes...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started.

    In September the Nurses will vote to strike, in October the junior doctors too. There are major staff shortages across Health and social care. It will be a car crash, and Sunak doesn't have the financial or political resources to salvage the situation. I am not sure anyone does.

    He should sit on the back benches and say "I told you so..."
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories are already taking the piss, especially if the rumours of Rees-Mogg as Levelling Up secretary are true. To impose another leader, selected by a narrow group of largely southern male pensioners on us, would take the piss to extremes.

    I have no great hopes for Starmer but the Tories need to be out of power and rethink seriously who they are and what they want to do for the country. The current lot are an undisciplined rabble, even if one or two may occasionally do something worthwhile.

    Although to be fair only one Minister of Health has ever become Prime Minister - Neville Chamberlain.
    Technically all PMs from 1913 on to 1948 were responsible for a NHS - the state funded Highlands and Islands Medical Service (HIMS) (albeit geographically limited, and means tested charged for at a low level). Though that would have been through the Secretary of State for Scotland.
    Since only one Secretary of State for Scotland has ever become Prime Minister (and that was before 1913) that doesn't alter the premise.

    Interestingly, the SoSS in question was also the last Chief Secretary of Ireland to rise to the office of Prime Minister.
    Who was that, please? Can't think offhand ...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258
    fox327 said:

    Suppose that Truss proves to be as unreliable as has been suggested? What would be the point of replacing her if the replacement would be somebody equally unstable or unsuitable.

    Unless the Conservative leadership rules are changed so that the party's MPs get the final choice on who is Prime Minister when the party is in government there is no point in holding another Tory leadership election before the general election.

    It would be quite comedic next time to see a run off between Francois and Baker, where Baker somehow gets labelled as the remainer and we reach the turning point of PM Francois.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

    Rees Mogg as 'Levelling Up secretary'
    That's the best joke ever.
    Could they bring back the guy with the moat and put him in charge of Housing ?
    For a second I thought it was April 1st !
    The Rees-Mogg / Redwood articles have to be a joke.

    Or Liz Truss really is tone death. Which to be fair, she probably is.
    I assumed they had been fed to the press by the Sunak camp. To try and provoke a black swan event to bring Truss crashing down.

    Perhaps not. She is - as you point out - not just tone deaf but utterly oblivious to reality. So yes, why not Moggster as Know Your Place Secretary and the Vulcan as Child Poverty Secretary to the Treasury. It'll be dead popular.
    Cleverly to be Foreign Secretary, Braverman Home Secretary, Badenoch Education Secretary or Culture. Coffey Chief Whip and Javid NI amongst the other likely Truss Cabinet appointments
    You're closer to the mind of the Conservative party than most of us... how plausible does that Cabinet seem to you? Because to me, it screams "we don't care what happens next time, we have two years, let's have some fun."
    It is Truss largely rewarding her supporters, with the exception of Javid and Badenoch (the latter to secure the right behind her)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Promotions for Braverman, JRM and Redwood create a real sense of foreboding about the incoming administration. Sunak should take Health if he is really offered it, it is frankly way more important to the operation of the UK government than FS and, arguably, even HS.

    Health is the kiss of death. No Health Secretary has become PM since the NHS started.

    In September the Nurses will vote to strike, in October the junior doctors too. There are major staff shortages across Health and social care. It will be a car crash, and Sunak doesn't have the financial or political resources to salvage the situation. I am not sure anyone does.

    He should sit on the back benches and say "I told you so..."
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories are already taking the piss, especially if the rumours of Rees-Mogg as Levelling Up secretary are true. To impose another leader, selected by a narrow group of largely southern male pensioners on us, would take the piss to extremes.

    I have no great hopes for Starmer but the Tories need to be out of power and rethink seriously who they are and what they want to do for the country. The current lot are an undisciplined rabble, even if one or two may occasionally do something worthwhile.

    Although to be fair only one Minister of Health has ever become Prime Minister - Neville Chamberlain.
    Technically all PMs from 1913 on to 1948 were responsible for a NHS - the state funded Highlands and Islands Medical Service (HIMS) (albeit geographically limited, and means tested charged for at a low level). Though that would have been through the Secretary of State for Scotland.
    Since only one Secretary of State for Scotland has ever become Prime Minister (and that was before 1913) that doesn't alter the premise.

    Interestingly, the SoSS in question was also the last Chief Secretary of Ireland to rise to the office of Prime Minister.
    Who was that, please? Can't think offhand ...
    Arthur Balfour.

    Also from 1895-1902 the last person to hold the office of First Lord of the Treasury without being Prime Minister.

    Also until 1970 the last ex-party leader to serve in a cabinet under one (in fact, three) of his successors.*

    *ignoring Baldwin, Macdonald and Neville Chamberlin who were still party leaders at the time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Truss' cabinet looks ummmmm, 'interesting' but remember for a great swathe Redwood, for example, will mean little more than 'he was one of the brexit blokes'
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Buongiorno



    Florence?
    Loggia dei Lanzi
This discussion has been closed.