Could Liz Truss be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

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Could Liz Truss be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

There’s a very powerful piece by Matthew Parris in the Times this morning raising doubts about Liz Truss – the woman who looks set to be the next CON leader and PM. He writes:

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson

Test

Gardenwalker

Very unlikely.

The Tories are issuing another shit into the bed, and they will have to keep lying in it until ‘24.

Bournville

Gardenwalker said:

Bournville said:

I keep seeing people say that the Conservatives are on track for a 1997 style defeat at the next election.

I think this is completely wrong.

In 1997, the Tories enjoyed a prosperous economy, an opposition leader who basically accepted their economic policies, and a broadly competent central office which had filtered out most of the mental candidates.

In 2024, the Tories will be going into the election with the worst economic situation in a century, an opposition leader who has refused to commit to a serious economic policy, and a broadly incompetent central office which has filtered out most of the serious candidates in favour of braindead yesmen.

I work for them - and when people around my age ask me why, I don't have an answer. I basically treat my work as a kind of charity for pensioners. Campaigning for this party objectively makes my life worse, but it makes my grandparents' lives better.

The Tories are heading for electoral oblivion. I've told my line manager this, my colleagues have said the same, but noone at the top of the party cares. I genuinely believe the 2024 election will be the Tory 1923 - complete collapse, with something much nastier filling the void.

You WORK for the Tories?
Surely you can do something less wicked with your time, like selling tobacco to children, or the white slave trade?

As long as you work for an association rather than CCHQ you can semi justify it - associations are mostly run by very nice older people who genuinely have a sense of civic duty,and Tory policies make their lives better so it's not immediately obvious that you're making the country worse.

However at this point I either have a choice of moving home and working for minimum wage in a chicken factory with guaranteed no prospects, or staying in London and working for minimum wage in a Conservative association with the dim hope of some prospects. So I'm gambling on the prospects.

BartholomewRoberts

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
1h
I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

And

"This is going to be an almighty car crash".

Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

So there's a bit of hope.

I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
3. Errrrr ....
4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
5. Drawing a blank for any more.

Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.

Jim_Miller

I like this: "Liz Truss is a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain."

Because it reads like a fragment from an entry in the Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulwer-Lytton_Fiction_Contest

(Probably not a winning entry, but certainly a good try. )

DecrepiterJohnL

Betfair next prime minister
1.06 Liz Truss 94%
15 Rishi Sunak 7%

Next Conservative leader
1.06 Liz Truss 94%
16 Rishi Sunak 6%

DecrepiterJohnL

BartholomewRoberts said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
1h
I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

And

"This is going to be an almighty car crash".

Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

So there's a bit of hope.

I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
3. Errrrr ....
4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
5. Drawing a blank for any more.

Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.

Truss has had to "clarify" more than once in the last couple of weeks that what she said was not what she meant, and also disown things she wrote. She also postponed meeting farmers until September when most votes will have been cast, suggesting nervousness about her trade deals and/or agricultural policy.

DecrepiterJohnL

Truss being replaced before the election is what keeps Boris in the game. Sunak too.

IanB2

It would unfair and ungentlemanly to deprive her of the prize she has fought so long and hard for: taking her party down to defeat at the next election.

Only IDS deserved such a cruel fate, and his case, richly, being so patently bad that troubling the electorate for our verdict was entirely unnecessary.

DecrepiterJohnL

IanB2 said:

It would unfair and ungentlemanly to deprive her of the prize she has fought so long and hard for: taking her party down to defeat at the next election.

Only IDS deserved such a cruel fate, and his case, richly, being so patently bad that the verdict of the electorate was unnecessary.

Actually IDS did very well at the locals but the plotters were stuck in their groove.

dobbin

The same Parris drivel aimed at a gay gentleman would have Twitterville in convulsions. I look forward to Liz victory in 24 all the more and the Parris " explanation" of the result.

Pulpstar

No.

Pulpstar

I believe Truss faces the most difficult in-tray of any incoming PM in my lifetime.

IanB2

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 43% (+4)
CON: 28% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-1)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 10 Aug

rcs1000

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

I believe Truss faces the most difficult in-tray of any incoming PM in my lifetime.

It's akin to James Callaghan's in 1976, but she seems to want to govern more like Ted Heath in 1970.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

Chris

So essentially she's Boris Johnson without the communication skills?

Chris

IanB2 said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 43% (+4)
CON: 28% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-1)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 10 Aug

1983 in reverse (except for the poor Lib Dems).

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Not only that, but the people most affected by rising interest rates will be people in work with mortgages who have already been hit by the National Insurance rise. It would be a straight transfer of wealth (again) from workers to retirees.

Dura_Ace

BartholomewRoberts said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
1h
I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

And

"This is going to be an almighty car crash".

Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

So there's a bit of hope.

I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
3. Errrrr ....
4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
5. Drawing a blank for any more.

Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.

Just recently we've had...

Lavrov taking the piss out of her.
Anglo-Lithuanian Freedom Armada that was obviously nonsense.
Encouraging people to get their Duke of Edinburgh Award by joining the Azov Battalion.
Multiple examples of policies that were 'misunderstood' and had be jettisoned.

SouthamObserver

Looking at the polling, a big difference between the sustained Labour leads now and under Ed Miliband is that Labour currently leads, or is as close to level as makes no difference, on key supplementaries such as the economy and leadership. Under EdM Labour never got close to the Tories on these. They were telling us clearly what was going to happen in 2015.

Truss needs to get the Tories way out ahead on the economy once more and has to establish a big lead over Starmer. Then hold both. If she does that, she’ll lead the Tories to victory - whatever the headline numbers might say.

If.

ydoethur

BartholomewRoberts said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
1h
I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

And

"This is going to be an almighty car crash".

Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

So there's a bit of hope.

I get the notion that a leopard doesn't change its spots so if Truss was someone who regularly crashed the car in the past, one should expect her to do so again in the future.

But I'm struggling to see the supposed car crashes that she's been engaged in previously. She's been in the Cabinet for coming on to a decade now and I can't think of a single scandal or car crash she has been the cause of - if there have been many, please feel free to say what they are?

What are the top Liz Truss 'car crashes' in her roughly a decade in the Cabinet?

1. That speech where she spoke weirdly about Pork Markets.
2. That speech where she spoke weirdly about cheese.
3. Errrrr ....
4. Oh wait, that was the same speech nearly a decade ago.
5. Drawing a blank for any more.

Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.

GCSE reform was a train crash which should have ruled her out of any further office ever.

TimS

SouthamObserver said:

Looking at the polling, a big difference between the sustained Labour leads now and under Ed Miliband is that Labour currently leads, or is as close to level as makes no difference, on key supplementaries such as the economy and leadership. Under EdM Labour never got close to the Tories on these. They were telling us clearly what was going to happen in 2015.

Truss needs to get the Tories way out ahead on the economy once more and has to establish a big lead over Starmer. Then hold both. If she does that, she’ll lead the Tories to victory - whatever the headline numbers might say.

If.

The other big difference is the other parties. All are more favourable for Labour:

Green higher now - more votes to squeeze
Lib Dem similar to early 2013, but that vite then collapsed in 2015 - which was v favourable to the Tories
UKIP 9-10% then, easily squeezable by the Tories and doesn’t exist now.

LLG is consistently in the high 50s across polls, with Tory+populist right on sub-40% and usually around 35%.

rcs1000

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

I believe Truss faces the most difficult in-tray of any incoming PM in my lifetime.

It's akin to James Callaghan's in 1976, but she seems to want to govern more like Ted Heath in 1970.

This is a very astute point: it's almost like she's channeling Anthony Barber.

DecrepiterJohnL

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Fuel, and food, which will be made worse by the recent weather, and courtesy of the Chinese lockdowns, a lot of manufactured goods.

JosiasJessop

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

When Russia recommenced their invasion in February, my view was that even if Kyiv fell, Ukraine would be independent again within a few decades. I see no reason to change that view - although Kyiv falling does seem rather unlikely now.

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

Well what happens to energy in that situation

Peter_the_Punter

So she's not very good then.

Would never have guessed.

Peter_the_Punter

Pulpstar said:

I believe Truss faces the most difficult in-tray of any incoming PM in my lifetime.

But she's replacing the worst PM in mine, so maybe she won't seem so bad.

Dura_Ace

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

There isn't the same linguistic and cultural distance that there was in Afghanistan. It'll be more like Chechnya. Resistance suppressed by empowering local warlords and criminals.

IanB2

Govey clearly reads Parris

Or PB.

JosiasJessop

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

Well what happens to energy in that situation

It'll take a couple of years, but we'll come to a new 'normal' without Russian oil and gas (gas being the difficult one). It will also accelerate green energy projects and increased energy independence across Europe.

But those couple of years will be nasty, particularly for countries who have relied on Russian gas. Politically, I expect some friction in the EU with Germany, as the latter tries 'bullying' states that were not as stupid as they were.

I don't expect Europe to try to force Ukraine into a peace deal, however much some continental politicians may want it. They now realise that reliance on Russian energy is stoopid, and that Russia's territorial desires are not healthy for Europe. If they do a deal with Russia in exchange for 'peace', Russia will just turn off the gas again for their next demand.

rcs1000

Dura_Ace said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

There isn't the same linguistic and cultural distance that there was in Afghanistan. It'll be more like Chechnya. Resistance suppressed by empowering local warlords and criminals.

Countries don't have unlimited resources to "pacify" multiple rebellious areas simultaneously.

And let's not forget, Chechnya has a population of 1.5m. There are more than 20 million people East of the Dnieper.

rcs1000

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

Well what happens to energy in that situation

It remains expensive until there is ample LNG export and shipping capability.

DecrepiterJohnL

After Rishi's McDonaldsgate comes ManUtdgate, as, at last night's hustings, Rishi looked forward to Southampton beating United "this weekend" when Saints actually face Leicester City. He meant next weekend, the 27th.

OnlyLivingBoy

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Higher energy prices represent a large negative terms of trade shock - in other words, Britain is poorer. There is no way around that. The question is whether this is a one time price adjustment or whether it triggers a prolonged period of inflation via a wage-price spiral, like we saw after the first oil shock. Hiking rates is meant to prevent the second scenario, since the lesson form the 70s is that countries which did that ultimately had less inflation and a less prolonged economic crisis. Although the economy will probably go into recession anyway, and this will curtail inflation to an extent, I personally favour a more aggressive monetary policy response now to forestall more pain later.
Beyond the narrow question of rate increases I think we need to acknowledge that we are at war and take other economic measures accordingly. During WW2 we avoided inflation and protected the poor through measures like rationing of food and energy. I think we should be open to doing this again as long as we are at war. Allowing the price mechanism to decide who eats and stays warm is both morally indefensible and will ultimately jeopardise our ability to win the war against Putin's aggression. We should also be coordinating measures with other countries in free Europe to ensure that Putin's efforts to divide and conquer can't win.
The kind of measures that Truss is proposing will simply stoke inflation without solving the underlying problem. And she appears set on more stupid quarrels with the EU. The gravity of our situation warrants a much more serious response.

rcs1000

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

Well what happens to energy in that situation

It'll take a couple of years, but we'll come to a new 'normal' without Russian oil and gas (gas being the difficult one). It will also accelerate green energy projects and increased energy independence across Europe.

But those couple of years will be nasty, particularly for countries who have relied on Russian gas. Politically, I expect some friction in the EU with Germany, as the latter tries 'bullying' states that were not as stupid as they were.

I don't expect Europe to try to force Ukraine into a peace deal, however much some continental politicians may want it. They now realise that reliance on Russian energy is stoopid, and that Russia's territorial desires are not healthy for Europe. If they do a deal with Russia in exchange for 'peace', Russia will just turn off the gas again for their next demand.

The worst affected countries are poor energy importers.

Pakistan's gas imports have dropped 90+% because Germany and the UK can afford to outbid them on cargos.

Sandpit

QTWTAIN

boulay

Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

Sandpit

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

It's not just China, though.

The global poor - Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. - have learned the secret of manufacturing.

They will take a greater slice of world economic output, and they will compete with us for commodities.

This isn't bad, but it is far from easy for workers in the developed world.

Sandpit

DecrepiterJohnL said:

After Rishi's McDonaldsgate comes ManUtdgate, as, at last night's hustings, Rishi looked forward to Southampton beating United "this weekend" when Saints actually face Leicester City. He meant next weekend, the 27th.

Everyone knows that Man U are playing Liverpool on Monday night.

Trying to be ‘down with da kids’ has backfired spectacularly on Rishi in this campaign. He’s revealed himself to be so far out of touch with the average person. I keep going back to him him not actually knowing how to put petrol in a car, because for the last 20 years he’s not had to do it. To the 99.99% of people who don’t have a family driver or a nice policeman on call to drive them around, he looks like an idiot.

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

I don't think Russia can collapse quickly enough to normalise gas prices. It would need to take more than Putin going, but also his whole retinue of cronies and the Russian military, and even Russians like Navalny are nationalists.

The gas prices stick for the next couple of years IMO.

DecrepiterJohnL

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

It's not just China, though.

The global poor - Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. - have learned the secret of manufacturing.

They will take a greater slice of world economic output, and they will compete with us for commodities.

This isn't bad, but it is far from easy for workers in the developed world.

That is what people often miss. When the West offshored manufacturing, it did not mean China could steal their IP, although it did, but it meant China (other offshore manufacturing centres are available) learned how to run production lines, factories and supply chains. That was the real secret sauce.

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

What happens to energy prices if Russia err wins ?

There is no "win".

If they successfully occupy Eastern Ukraine, and force the Central government to sue for peace, they will have an Afghanistan type insurgency situation on their hands.

And sanctions will continue.

Russia will lose, the only question now is what form that loss takes.

OnlyLivingBoy

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

Not only is the current situation in the economics textbooks (negative supply shock) but we have a real life historical example of it - the first oil price shock. The lesson of that shock was that central banks that acted more aggressively early on prevented more pain later and established credibility.
Unwinding QE is already well in train in both the US and UK, alongside rate hikes.

rcs1000

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

It's not just China, though.

The global poor - Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. - have learned the secret of manufacturing.

They will take a greater slice of world economic output, and they will compete with us for commodities.

This isn't bad, but it is far from easy for workers in the developed world.

That is what people often miss. When the West offshored manufacturing, it did not mean China could steal their IP, although it did, but it meant China (other offshore manufacturing centres are available) learned how to run production lines, factories and supply chains. That was the real secret sauce.

Exactly.

That secret sauce that only the West (and Japan) had, the secret of a hundred years of dominating world economic output... well, it isn't a secret anymore.

Foxy

My niece is into Cambridge to do Mathematics. Comprehensive school all the way.

Bright kid.

Dura_Ace

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

I don't think Russia can collapse quickly enough to normalise gas prices. It would need to take more than Putin going, but also his whole retinue of cronies and the Russian military, and even Russians like Navalny are nationalists.

The gas prices stick for the next couple of years IMO.

Navalny is more than just a nationalist. He's Zhirinovsky with a YouTube channel. Quite fond of dropping the Kh-word to refer to Ukrainians...

Sandpit

Foxy said:

My niece is into Cambridge to do Mathematics. Comprehensive school all the way.

Bright kid.

Congratulations, you’re a proud uncle today.

CD13

"I’ll wager that at the outset most readers thought Liz Truss a bit weird."

I certainly did. "Gottle of geer," and all that. First impressions count, and I had the same impression about Ed Milliband. A little weird too, but not dangerous. It could be her inexperience was showing, but Ed never really shook it off, and it could be she won't either.

But Brexit seemed to scramble Parris' brain, a little like Trump did to the Democrats. Making them angry rather than calculating. Seeing their opposition as Satan rather than a political opponent. "Sound and fury," isn't always a good attack line.

At worst, I'd see Liz as ineffective, but I don't see her being Satanic. Just my gut feeling.

DecrepiterJohnL

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

After Rishi's McDonaldsgate comes ManUtdgate, as, at last night's hustings, Rishi looked forward to Southampton beating United "this weekend" when Saints actually face Leicester City. He meant next weekend, the 27th.

Everyone knows that Man U are playing Liverpool on Monday night.

Trying to be ‘down with da kids’ has backfired spectacularly on Rishi in this campaign. He’s revealed himself to be so far out of touch with the average person. I keep going back to him him not actually knowing how to put petrol in a car, because for the last 20 years he’s not had to do it. To the 99.99% of people who don’t have a family driver or a nice policeman on call to drive them around, he looks like an idiot.

Worse than that, Rishi did not know how to pay for it. How could he not know how to use a contactless card? Presumably when he last took his daughters to McDonalds more than two years ago, mum must have paid.

OnlyLivingBoy

boulay said:

Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

The more interesting question is whether Murdoch will defect to Labour. He's gone all in on Rishi via his proxies, even though he must know Truss will win.

Foxy

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

I don't think Russia can collapse quickly enough to normalise gas prices. It would need to take more than Putin going, but also his whole retinue of cronies and the Russian military, and even Russians like Navalny are nationalists.

The gas prices stick for the next couple of years IMO.

Navalny is more than just a nationalist. He's Zhirinovsky with a YouTube channel. Quite fond of dropping the Kh-word to refer to Ukrainians...

Navalny is anti this war, and against the corrupt oligarchs, but ultimately his politics are fairly mainstream Russian nationalism.

rcs1000

As an aside, we have seen *exactly* the current scenario play out before.

In 1973, upset with the US's support for Israel, OPEC announced it would cease selling oil to the US, and would impose strict quotas on oil production.

It lurched the developed world into a seven year crisis.

But at the end of it, the Western world had developed new energy sources (whether oil and gas from the North Sea or Alaska, or France's nuclear power programme), and had dramatically cut energy consumption. World oil demand bottomed out almost ten years after the initial shock, 15% below 1973 levels.

We'll see exactly the same again: new sources of gas will be developed (Mozambique, for example), and the Western world will reduce its demand for natural gas, by building more renewables.

Russia, when it starts exporting again, will be exporting into a very different world.

rcs1000

Foxy said:

My niece is into Cambridge to do Mathematics. Comprehensive school all the way.

Bright kid.

I hope she got into a decent college.

SouthamObserver

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

It's not just China, though.

The global poor - Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. - have learned the secret of manufacturing.

They will take a greater slice of world economic output, and they will compete with us for commodities.

This isn't bad, but it is far from easy for workers in the developed world.

That is what people often miss. When the West offshored manufacturing, it did not mean China could steal their IP, although it did, but it meant China (other offshore manufacturing centres are available) learned how to run production lines, factories and supply chains. That was the real secret sauce.

Exactly.

That secret sauce that only the West (and Japan) had, the secret of a hundred years of dominating world economic output... well, it isn't a secret anymore.

It’s more than that. China, in particular, has invested an absolute shedload in next generation, automated manufacturing. They’re miles ahead - and they’re building a massive customer base outside the country in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. We let them do it by never thinking that they could. It’s an object lesson in the dangers of complacency.

Even now, though, the West (and Japan) still has advantages - not least freedom to access information and question authority. We can be disruptive in a way China can’t be. They still need us to do the heavy lifting in innovation.

OnlyLivingBoy

Foxy said:

My niece is into Cambridge to do Mathematics. Comprehensive school all the way.

Bright kid.

Foxy said:

My niece is into Cambridge to do Mathematics. Comprehensive school all the way.

Bright kid.

Fantastic news, well done her. Pass on my best wishes, as another comprehensive educated Cambridge alumnus. I hope she has a brilliant time!

Sandpit

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

After Rishi's McDonaldsgate comes ManUtdgate, as, at last night's hustings, Rishi looked forward to Southampton beating United "this weekend" when Saints actually face Leicester City. He meant next weekend, the 27th.

Everyone knows that Man U are playing Liverpool on Monday night.

Trying to be ‘down with da kids’ has backfired spectacularly on Rishi in this campaign. He’s revealed himself to be so far out of touch with the average person. I keep going back to him him not actually knowing how to put petrol in a car, because for the last 20 years he’s not had to do it. To the 99.99% of people who don’t have a family driver or a nice policeman on call to drive them around, he looks like an idiot.

Worse than that, Rishi did not know how to pay for it. How could he not know how to use a contactless card? Presumably when he last took his daughters to McDonalds more than two years ago, mum must have paid.

Nah, the nanny would have paid, and the family just pays off the nanny’s card each month. He’s so far out of touch, he might as well be on the moon.

rcs1000

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

Not only is the current situation in the economics textbooks (negative supply shock) but we have a real life historical example of it - the first oil price shock. The lesson of that shock was that central banks that acted more aggressively early on prevented more pain later and established credibility.
Unwinding QE is already well in train in both the US and UK, alongside rate hikes.

I'm not sure that's strictly accurate.

The countries that did best were the ones who had existing high levels of hydrocarbon (energy) taxation, and were therefore already fairly efficient.

Penddu2

Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

LostPassword

For potential replacement leaders kicking out Johnson came with some obvious benefits. They would have two years as PM. A chance to turn things around and win the next election.

If Liz Truss does very badly, anyone contemplating replacing her won't have those benefits. They'd be PM for only months. Most likely they would take over only to have the honour of leading the Tories to an enormous defeat. It would be easy in that position to decide that it was better to try and minimize the damage at the election and then seek to take over in opposition.

SouthamObserver

Foxy said:

My niece is into Cambridge to do Mathematics. Comprehensive school all the way.

Bright kid.

Great stuff - Cambridge is pretty much the pinnacle for maths. And there’s no route in for bullshitters or blaggers. She has an amazing future ahead of her.

Foxy

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

Not only is the current situation in the economics textbooks (negative supply shock) but we have a real life historical example of it - the first oil price shock. The lesson of that shock was that central banks that acted more aggressively early on prevented more pain later and established credibility.
Unwinding QE is already well in train in both the US and UK, alongside rate hikes.

In real terms interest rates are currently very low. 10% inflation and a base rate of 1.5% is negative interest rates more than we have seen in modern times. Mrs Foxy's new kitchen at 0% finance* is effectively a big discount. Real interest rates need to be positive to make saving worthwhile and bring down consumer demand so 12-13% minimum.

*yes, I know it is just marketing and made up by profiteering elsewhere in the package!

Stuartinromford

OnlyLivingBoy said:

boulay said:

Does anyone think that there are enough Tory MPs who would defect to Lab or LD if Truss is a disaster in perhaps 8/9 months time.

It’s been floated on here that if she’s a shit-show in a year then the Tories will dump her before a GE but it’s clearly a possibility they don’t get a chance to.

I could potentially see a group of Tories in seats like Winchester, Cheltenham and other South west seats decide that “the party has left them” and shift to the LDs. Partly cynical self preservation but also likely that they do have fundamental probs with a Truss Tory party.

The same could happen with more Red Wall Tory MOs shifting to Labour.

The LDs would be the big beneficiaries if they received perhaps 20 of these refugees as not only is it a booster to them in terms of influence but also potentially injects extra quality into the parliamentary party IMHO.

Then if there is a 1923 wipe-out at next election as someone mentioned overnight then the LDs might shift and occupy the centre right position for some time.

The above is probably about as accurate as what I thought would happen with the Tory leadership but anyway it only requires about 40 to abandon ship and you are in VONC territory surely.

The more interesting question is whether Murdoch will defect to Labour. He's gone all in on Rishi via his proxies, even though he must know Truss will win.

At one of the 1970s Heath/Wilson elections, the Sun went with "may the best man win (and heaven help us if they don't)". I suspect Starmer would settle for that.

On topic, there's nothing stopping Truss being kicked out, but it would come at a massive cost in Conservative credibility. If she is as awful as some who have worked with her say, that price may need to be paid, but it won't be easy or cheap, unless she suffers a hideous medical emergency. Not even the Conservative Whips' Office would do that, would they?

YBarddCwsc

Betteridge's Law applies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines

Sandpit

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Yes, the current situation really isn’t in any of the economics textbooks.

Central banks, with only one available lever to combat inflation, must realise that raising interest rates is futile against inflation that is being driven purely by global commodity prices.

Governments, having printed money like crazy in 2009, and again in 2020 in response to the pandemic, now appear addicted to it. Everyone bar the USA, with the fortune of the global reserve currency, is totally screwed as a result, and needs to embark on a decade-long plan to burn all the money they printed.

Globalisation is going to reverse, as the West slowly realises that China is not an ally, and that manufacturing needs to be closer to the consumers.

Not only is the current situation in the economics textbooks (negative supply shock) but we have a real life historical example of it - the first oil price shock. The lesson of that shock was that central banks that acted more aggressively early on prevented more pain later and established credibility.
Unwinding QE is already well in train in both the US and UK, alongside rate hikes.

The negative supply shock is of course in the textbooks, but the massive money-printing exercise of the past decade and a half very much isn’t, and neither is the globalisation of supply chains, that prevents effective currency devaluation without triggering yet more inflation.

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

My niece is into Cambridge to do Mathematics. Comprehensive school all the way.

Bright kid.

I hope she got into a decent college.

Churchill, so very science oriented.

Theuniondivvie

Foxy said:

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

I don't think Russia can collapse quickly enough to normalise gas prices. It would need to take more than Putin going, but also his whole retinue of cronies and the Russian military, and even Russians like Navalny are nationalists.

The gas prices stick for the next couple of years IMO.

Navalny is more than just a nationalist. He's Zhirinovsky with a YouTube channel. Quite fond of dropping the Kh-word to refer to Ukrainians...

Navalny is anti this war, and against the corrupt oligarchs, but ultimately his politics are fairly mainstream Russian nationalism.

Not dissimilar to our own mainstream Britnat pm who is anti the Russian special operation, though not so much being against corrupt oligarchs of course.

Foxy

Penddu2 said:

Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

Great Nationalist? Opposed to EU? Neighbours not a real country?

Where have we have heard that before? It rings a bell...

Stuartinromford

Another snippet from the Times today;

JRM for Levelling Up secretary.

That has to be a joke, right?

DecrepiterJohnL

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

After Rishi's McDonaldsgate comes ManUtdgate, as, at last night's hustings, Rishi looked forward to Southampton beating United "this weekend" when Saints actually face Leicester City. He meant next weekend, the 27th.

Everyone knows that Man U are playing Liverpool on Monday night.

Trying to be ‘down with da kids’ has backfired spectacularly on Rishi in this campaign. He’s revealed himself to be so far out of touch with the average person. I keep going back to him him not actually knowing how to put petrol in a car, because for the last 20 years he’s not had to do it. To the 99.99% of people who don’t have a family driver or a nice policeman on call to drive them around, he looks like an idiot.

Worse than that, Rishi did not know how to pay for it. How could he not know how to use a contactless card? Presumably when he last took his daughters to McDonalds more than two years ago, mum must have paid.

Nah, the nanny would have paid, and the family just pays off the nanny’s card each month. He’s so far out of touch, he might as well be on the moon.

Come to think of it, presumably Rishi helping out in his mum's shop was confined to the few weeks he was not away at boarding school.

It never bothered me if politicians did not know the price of a bottle of milk but Rishi is abusing the privilege and handing ammunition straight to Team Truss. It will not alter his ability to be Prime Minister but it has killed his chances. And it is literally pathetic if he did not realise it has been more than two years since he took his daughters to McDonalds.

Scott_xP

Good morning all

For anyone not yet convinced the (however brief) Truss premiership is going to be an epic bin fire from beginning to ignominious end, I bring you this



And apologies to anyone eating breakfast

Theuniondivvie

Penddu2 said:

Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

I did.
‘Rose without trace’ has become a cliché but I can’t think of anyone to whom it applies more than Frosty currently. In a strong field he embodies the Unionist Brexiteer spouting reactionary threats to order, usually in the house paper of that weird ideology the Tele. I sense even HYUFD might find him a tad extreme.

Theuniondivvie

Lol, JRM and Redwood! Surely there must be a place for Nads in this confederacy of weirdos?

Nigelb

Germany is going to provide Ukraine with Vulacno 155mm artillery rounds. The GLR variant has a 70km range.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560698512010276864

bigjohnowls

On Topic by Boris Johnson MP

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Germany is going to provide Ukraine with Vulacno 155mm artillery rounds. The GLR variant has a 70km range.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560698512010276864

Good to see Germany finally stepping up. Maybe they now realise how screwed they are this winter, when Putin can turn the gas tap off for fun.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

This.

And I'm not really sure how higher interest rates are meant to help.

Yes, they might reduce inflation - at the cost of a nasty recession - but it doesn't do anything to sort out the real-source of those high prices, which is energy.

Not only that, but the people most affected by rising interest rates will be people in work with mortgages who have already been hit by the National Insurance rise. It would be a straight transfer of wealth (again) from workers to retirees.

Yet again.

Nigelb

BartholomewRoberts said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
1h
I keep wavering between "Truss is resilient and hardworking, the press will give her some room, she'll make a flurry of announcements that contrasts with Johnson...probably do a bit better than expected early on."

And

"This is going to be an almighty car crash".

Yup. And as I think Sam Freedman then points out, even if the honeymoon goes OK, the car crash will still happen, sometime. It will happen because of how Truss operates.

And right now, there's nothing anyone can do about it, unless Truss drops a career-ending clanger in the next fortnight or so.

So there's a bit of hope.

…Matthew Parris has been driven mad by Brexit. He's got as much impartiality when it comes to the modern Tories now as any other FBPE fanatic.

Just like Dominic Cummings, who draw pretty well the same conclusions ?

Nigelb

Scott_xP said:

Good morning all

For anyone not yet convinced the (however brief) Truss premiership is going to be an epic bin fire from beginning to ignominious end, I bring you this



And apologies to anyone eating breakfast

Which number two will get number two ?

Sandpit

MikeSmithson said:

Test

Day 4 today, looking forward to it.

Oh bugger.

northern_monkey

Lovely stuff:

https://twitter.com/secrettory12/status/1560706605695606784?s=21&t=_R2jK2Ka_eaAii2ODvTbYA

Luckyguy1983

rcs1000 said:

If the Ukraine situation ends in Russia's defeat and the fall of the Putin regime, then the cost of commodities will rapidly normalize, and Truss will likely be reelected in 2024. (Albeit, I suspect with a reduced majority.)

On the other hand, if it drags on, then energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Simply, there aren't enough LNG vessels in the world to satisfy Europe's (including the UK) demand. This will result in a cascading effect, where reduced disposable income means reduced demand for goods and services, meaning fewer jobs, meaning the cost of imported energy weighs even more on UK consumers.

That will mean the UK has a recession that compares to 2008. And that will not be pretty.

I don't think it's really in the US (and by extension the UK) plans to unseat Putin quickly and have Russia's gas taps turned on again quickly. I know it was mentioned early on but it was wishful thinking. Russia may be defeated, but it won't be quick. However, Europe may cave. That will help us a lot, and allow us to say 'tsk tsk' whilst taking advantage of increased supply from elsewhere.

LostPassword

Sandpit said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

Day 4 today, looking forward to it.

Oh bugger.

Wonder how much England's rapid defeat cost the ECB? Must have been a few million pounds.

SouthamObserver

The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? If not, surely she has to stay in place to provide the ingoing cover Truss will need to tear up the Protocol, stick with Rwanda, bypass Parliament etc.

FeersumEnjineeya

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, we have seen *exactly* the current scenario play out before.

In 1973, upset with the US's support for Israel, OPEC announced it would cease selling oil to the US, and would impose strict quotas on oil production.

It lurched the developed world into a seven year crisis.

But at the end of it, the Western world had developed new energy sources (whether oil and gas from the North Sea or Alaska, or France's nuclear power programme), and had dramatically cut energy consumption. World oil demand bottomed out almost ten years after the initial shock, 15% below 1973 levels.

We'll see exactly the same again: new sources of gas will be developed (Mozambique, for example), and the Western world will reduce its demand for natural gas, by building more renewables.

Russia, when it starts exporting again, will be exporting into a very different world.

How ironic it will be if the historians of the future are able to point to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the trigger for the massive development of renewables that saved us all from climate catastrophe.

MarqueeMark

The Ukrainians have flown a (commercially available) drone onto the roof of the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet. That will bugger up their comms....

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1560879261183102977

SouthamObserver

Penddu2 said:

Did anyone see David Frost's bizarre comments about Wales & Scotland not being real nations - and planning to 'un-evolve' devolution. How to roll-back the Conservative vote in Wales and Scotland into hard-core English settlers.......

Frost is an English nationalist. For all his utter ridiculousness and lack of seriousness, he expresses what is now the dominant view inside the Conservative party. The SNP and Plaid Cymru will be absolutely delighted.

Scott_xP

Times weekend read: Liz Truss considers offering Rishi Sunak the role of health secretary. Could go to Nadhim Zahawi if he turns it down.

And John Redwood set to return to government as a Treasury minister almost 30 years after quitting Major’s cabinet

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4162ba9a-1fee-11ed-b7c3-8b288ab55a56?shareToken=9b46802d899c0dfcca5de17eee70ef82

Luckyguy1983

northern_monkey said:

Lovely stuff:

https://twitter.com/secrettory12/status/1560706605695606784?s=21&t=_R2jK2Ka_eaAii2ODvTbYA

If things are really that bad, maybe we need to turn to Page 9, the Papua New Guinea recipes section.

Theuniondivvie

Sorry Boris, Johnsonian not really the same as Churchillian.



https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1560679892995514370?s=21&t=6uYVY_RH1LwxXt1SLPBAzA

williamglenn

Large fire near the airport in Sochi

https://www.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1560884277935570944

Luckyguy1983

Scott_xP said:

Times weekend read: Liz Truss considers offering Rishi Sunak the role of health secretary. Could go to Nadhim Zahawi if he turns it down.

And John Redwood set to return to government as a Treasury minister almost 30 years after quitting Major’s cabinet

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4162ba9a-1fee-11ed-b7c3-8b288ab55a56?shareToken=9b46802d899c0dfcca5de17eee70ef82

Both good moves.

I also think she should keep Patel as Home Sec - do they hate each other or something? She should still keep her even if that's the case. Staying in that job is better punishment than leaving it.

Nigelb

SouthamObserver said:

The Times is saying Rees Mogg is being lined up for Levelling Up secretary. That, surely, is too much for Labour to ask for. And Braverman to the Home Office is tricky. Is there another qualified Tory lawyer in Parliament willing to debase the law to the extent she has as AG? ...

I’m pretty certain she won’t be unique in that respect.

Nigelb

As for the header question, the likelihood is probably similar to that of her winning the next election.

Sandpit

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

Day 4 today, looking forward to it.

Oh bugger.

Wonder how much England's rapid defeat cost the ECB? Must have been a few million pounds.

Lord’s holds 31,000, so at £100 each that’s more than £3m. Plus all the catering that got cancelled.