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Rishi and Liz looking stronger on the betting markets – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    My weather app is now showing 36 in Newcastle tomorrow. Surely not?

    Met Office says a mere 34°C.
    NE region record is 33.0.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,317
    glw said:

    Met have changed forecast for tomorrow. Now saying extreme heat but 50% chance of afternoon thunder storms.

    Guess the computer just ran a new model run.

    One of the candidates should offer to buy the Met Office a brand new supercomputer. Lots of scope for rhetoric about levelling up, beating rival nations, British ingenuity and so on. Some of it will be true and we might even get better weather forecasts.
    They are already getting one, £1.2bn from the government. Funding announced in 2020, partnership announced last year.

    Met Office and Microsoft to build climate supercomputer
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56840169
    Exactly. It will be the fastest supercomputer exclusively used for meteorology. And despite some of the moaning there was when the deal was announced it all looks sensible to me. There aren't many organisations that can run a data centre more efficiently than Microsoft, maybe Amazon and Google, but Microsoft seem to be offering just what is needed for the Met Office in the UK.
    Well, it might be better in the long term to use British Datacentre and Hosting PLC but we are where we are. At some point we need to learn from the Americans to balance buying the best but also supporting and developing home industries.

    But this new supercomputer is good news (and of course, is really a cluster like they all are).
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,256

    Our kitchen/diner will get fecking hot later - west-facing patio doors with no curtains.

    Yesterday I waited until after 10pm to do the washing up.

    Fortunately our bedroom is north-facing.

    You can improvise curtains with tape and sheets, towels or bin-liners. And stay cooler in bed by sleeping alone!
    Sean can use all his spare tinfoil
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,256

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    Americans!
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,468

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:
    So Penny gets to debate with herself.
    I can see it suits Truss to pull out, but why is Sunak doing so?
    Rattled by the attack on covid loan fraud, and thinks he is ahead
    Rishi and Liz are pulling out from the debates because they treat junior ministers and non-ministers as equal to holders of the Great Offices of State, and vice versa. In addition, Sunak is in the lead and has most to lose; Truss might have been in the lead but has already lost support.
    Rishi is a back bencher!
    So that's Kemi and Penny and the other one left?

    Recast it into a longer form conversation format, with more space to develop policies.
  • Options
    RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    I expect Sky will be pushing hard for a head to head debate since Rishi has said he's still open to future debates, but not during the MPs selection stage. Although I think the BBC has been standing back to nab a later head to head too.
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    I always sleep alone :(
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,317

    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Why?
    Because Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak pulled out of the Sky debate, and as tubs of lard would melt in this heat, Sky had no real option but to cancel.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,096
    IshmaelZ said:

    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Wow, the Tories are so afraid of public scrutiny that they won't even debate each other. Perhaps someone could find an extra large fridge for them to hide in together.
    Except they have done, twice. Good point though.
    Yeah, and realised that the more the public sees of them, the less they like them. So now they're running scared. Pathetic.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
    Our quite is their somewhat.
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    I didn't know that the temperatures are measured in the shade. 40 degrees potentially in the shade...
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs
  • Options
    Tim Bale is one of the best election analysts on Twitter.
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    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    glw said:

    Met have changed forecast for tomorrow. Now saying extreme heat but 50% chance of afternoon thunder storms.

    Guess the computer just ran a new model run.

    One of the candidates should offer to buy the Met Office a brand new supercomputer. Lots of scope for rhetoric about levelling up, beating rival nations, British ingenuity and so on. Some of it will be true and we might even get better weather forecasts.
    They are already getting one, £1.2bn from the government. Funding announced in 2020, partnership announced last year.

    Met Office and Microsoft to build climate supercomputer
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56840169
    Exactly. It will be the fastest supercomputer exclusively used for meteorology. And despite some of the moaning there was when the deal was announced it all looks sensible to me. There aren't many organisations that can run a data centre more efficiently than Microsoft, maybe Amazon and Google, but Microsoft seem to be offering just what is needed for the Met Office in the UK.
    Well, it might be better in the long term to use British Datacentre and Hosting PLC but we are where we are. At some point we need to learn from the Americans to balance buying the best but also supporting and developing home industries.

    But this new supercomputer is good news (and of course, is really a cluster like they all are).
    The public sector will never compete, and there aren't any British companies that are of the same scale. There is a huge amount of capital investment and expertise that goes into running a state-of-the-art data centre. It's way more complicated than building, cooling, and buying some kit from Dell. Lots of custom hardware and software.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
    Our quite is their somewhat.
    Although interestingly. As a one-word response to a statement, ours indicates a strong agreement.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,599

    Our kitchen/diner will get fecking hot later - west-facing patio doors with no curtains.

    Yesterday I waited until after 10pm to do the washing up.

    Fortunately our bedroom is north-facing.

    You can improvise curtains with tape and sheets, towels or bin-liners. And stay cooler in bed by sleeping alone!
    I recommend sheets of reflective foil (as for wrapping roast chicken etc.) fixed to windows with blue tack.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,317

    Betfair next prime minister
    2.22 Rishi Sunak. 45%
    3.65 Penny Mordaunt 27%
    4.8 Liz Truss 21%
    16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    150 Tom Tugendhat

    Next Conservative leader
    2.16 Rishi Sunak 46%
    3.7 Penny Mordaunt 27%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    17 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    200 Tom Tugendhat

    To be in final two
    1.05 Rishi Sunak 95%
    1.6 Penny Mordaunt 63%
    2.4 Liz Truss 42%
    9 Kemi Badenoch 11%
    100 Tom Tugendhat

    Rishi is now odds-on to be next prime minister, although still odds-against to be next Conservative leader.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.99 Rishi Sunak 50%
    3.85 Penny Mordaunt 26%
    4.6 Liz Truss 22%
    18.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    150 Tom Tugendhat

    Next Conservative leader
    2.04 Rishi Sunak 49%
    3.95 Penny Mordaunt 25%
    4.5 Liz Truss 22%
    17.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    170 Tom Tugendhat

    To be in final two
    1.05 Rishi Sunak 95%
    1.77 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    2.24 Liz Truss 45%
    9.2 Kemi Badenoch 11%
    100 Tom Tugendhat
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
    Our quite is their somewhat.
    Quite.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,190

    My proposal for PB Word Of The Day

    quantophrenia - (noun, uncountable)

    1 - Excessive reliance on or use of facts and figures that can be derived using statistical or mathematical procedures.
    2 - The inappropriate application of such processes, especially in anthropology and sociology.

    quantophrenic is the adjective, and the noun for one who suffers from it

    When I was looking at other -phrenia words, I noticed cyclophrenia which is another word for bipolar disorder

    It's remarkably close to @Cyclefree - was that deliberate?
    No.

    I chose it because my very first comment on a public forum anywhere was about .... cycling. In Regents Park. And being free to do so without bossy boots officials whining at you.

  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
    Our quite is their somewhat.
    Although interestingly. As a one-word response to a statement, ours indicates a strong agreement.
    Somewhat agree.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    Sunak heading to evens
    @Nigel_Foremain named my £5000 bet on Sunak as being an example of poor judgement the other day. 😂
    You put five grand on him?

    (Or you put £25 on him at 200/1?)
    £20 @ 250/1
  • Options
    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,893

    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
    I'm quite annoyed I've clustered with other people. Should have gone for an outlier, maybe somewhere in Wales?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,969

    Just got back from a few days in the Italian lakes. It was very hot but very agreeable. Nice to get back to the cool of England, though.

    Anything much happened whilst I've been away?

    Not much. The soaring heights of political rhetoric in the leadership debates; England won some cricket but lost some other cricket; PB has interesting new posters.
    And lost an uninteresting one.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,885
    edited July 2022
    jonny83 said:

    I didn't know that the temperatures are measured in the shade. 40 degrees potentially in the shade...

    Well, technically a Stevenson screen in full sun over grass in open ground (not sheltered) so that they are comparable with the historic record, but yes, effectively shade temperature. A number of the Met Office stations don't actually meet the criteria but that's an argument for another day.

    It might actually be cloudy at the peak of the heat. It was in Portugal.

    A full on hairdryer wind.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,317
    glw said:

    glw said:

    Met have changed forecast for tomorrow. Now saying extreme heat but 50% chance of afternoon thunder storms.

    Guess the computer just ran a new model run.

    One of the candidates should offer to buy the Met Office a brand new supercomputer. Lots of scope for rhetoric about levelling up, beating rival nations, British ingenuity and so on. Some of it will be true and we might even get better weather forecasts.
    They are already getting one, £1.2bn from the government. Funding announced in 2020, partnership announced last year.

    Met Office and Microsoft to build climate supercomputer
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56840169
    Exactly. It will be the fastest supercomputer exclusively used for meteorology. And despite some of the moaning there was when the deal was announced it all looks sensible to me. There aren't many organisations that can run a data centre more efficiently than Microsoft, maybe Amazon and Google, but Microsoft seem to be offering just what is needed for the Met Office in the UK.
    Well, it might be better in the long term to use British Datacentre and Hosting PLC but we are where we are. At some point we need to learn from the Americans to balance buying the best but also supporting and developing home industries.

    But this new supercomputer is good news (and of course, is really a cluster like they all are).
    The public sector will never compete, and there aren't any British companies that are of the same scale. There is a huge amount of capital investment and expertise that goes into running a state-of-the-art data centre. It's way more complicated than building, cooling, and buying some kit from Dell. Lots of custom hardware and software.
    True. And this level of government investment could pay for it. There are already lots of datacentres in Britain, it is not something recently invented by Microsoft (who do score as one of the so-called hyperscalers for cloud computing, again an American-dominated industry).
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,152

    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Wow, the Tories are so afraid of public scrutiny that they won't even debate each other. Perhaps someone could find an extra large fridge for them to hide in together.
    I must have missed the two other debates broadcast to the nation.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
    Grumble grumble ok then, but absolutely no more entries now :smile:


  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    Speak for yourself....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,911
    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    32.7 is the record for this year so far.
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    What time do the MPs vote today in the election?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    Apart from the usual suspects who keep the country going of course.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    Farooq said:

    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)

    Pretty unlikely now that we will reach 40c today (or even that close). It was too 'cool' at dawn to get us there. Tomorrow? We shall see!
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,589
    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Personally, I think we should be debating the sky, given what the sky is going to do to us today with this heat.
  • Options

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    Speak for yourself....
    How are you Francis?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,100
    edited July 2022
    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Noted that Truss and Sunak were the scaredy-cats.

    Still not ready to answer what is a woman"?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
    I'm quite annoyed I've clustered with other people. Should have gone for an outlier, maybe somewhere in Wales?
    You've got quite a large winning area. The Nottingham-Chesterfield-Lincoln triangle is all "yours".
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,911
    I think my Goole prediction was an error tbh - more in the running tommorow.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,806

    Farooq said:

    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)

    Pretty unlikely now that we will reach 40c today (or even that close). It was too 'cool' at dawn to get us there. Tomorrow? We shall see!
    I can now see some 40s as the predicted high temps on Met Office now - St. Neots, Huntingdon, Peterborough, Stamford, Spalding
  • Options
    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,190
    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    32.7 is the record for this year so far.
    33C at Hawarden yesterday

    https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1548806499295690753?cxt=HHwWgoCwhcTTu_4qAAAA
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    Morning reprobates.
    Obsession of the day weather report from Norwich is currently lovely high 20s. No melting rocks to report.
    Sensible chickening out of the debate, Tories absolutely mincing themselves. Wait till its a choice of two!
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    edited July 2022

    What time do the MPs vote today in the election?

    Evening vote round 8ish from memory
  • Options
    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
    I'm quite annoyed I've clustered with other people. Should have gone for an outlier, maybe somewhere in Wales?
    Sorry about that btw; I just looked for somewhere called Boiling
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,190
    Carnyx said:

    The simple observable reality is that we are starting to see bigger and bigger impacts of climate change. I hustle vegan food as my main source of income so that does something, and drive a PHEV which is another.

    Still haven't committed to go full EV despite a Tesla Y on order. Full-size SUV is just too sodding useful up here - yet another example at the weekend of hauling items which *just* fit inside which wouldn't in the Tesla. I can see why there are so many pick-up trucks up here. Which I want/don't want. So the Outlander is the best compromise at the moment.

    Anyway, I don't think it is tooooo bad for the environment. Did a YouTube trip to Sandend then Cullen then Fraserburgh then home last week. 85 miles, 116mpg. Not too shabby.

    Winter too is a big 4x4 motivator, obvs.
    Even on summer tyres I managed to drive across Soutra bar in a blizzard whilst everything else got stuck. Super electronic trickery from Mitsubishi and the fine control that two electric motors offer even vs mechanical diff-locked 4WD did the job.

    Will be on winter tyres next time round. I want to go and explore places like the Lecht ski centre when there is actual snow on the ground...
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    Farcical. How are they even allowed to do this?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,911

    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Yes that was my take, clearly both camps feeling confident this morning. Sunak surely DOES have the votes, I wouldn't put my house on Truss having them - but could be some Mordaunt -> Sunak slippage that might help her.
  • Options

    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Smart politics.

    Tony Blair vetoed every debate he could have taken part in.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,190

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    I've been pretty productive so far! Even chats with you fine people is in-between sending Q out and the response coming in.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,547

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    Speak for yourself....
    One summer decades ago I was visiting friends in Louisiana. Don't know exact temperature, but normally would be over 90F in afternoon with humidity pushing 80% and sunny.

    A crew of men were installing a new roof under that blazing sun. I'd spent years in that climate, including some without air conditioning. And could NOT believe that they could stand such conditions for hours at a stretch, let alone work under them.

    These guys were heavily suntanned and looked hot as hell. Yet seemed to think nothing of it.

    As Brendan Behan used to say, what can't be cured must be endured.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,911
    Didn't big dog skip the 2019 leader debates ?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    Farcical. How are they even allowed to do this?
    Because the media companies schedule these things, without asking the actual candidates first! The candidates who are spending today at their own hustings, and then in Parliament.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,651

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    This is what it looks like to have rails buckle (in Oz, but obv in the austral summer from the state of the vegetation). Not a long film, but start at 0:48 if you are impatient (but you will miss the initial viaduct, which raises very unpleasant thoughts).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LoXgN1QWZM
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,190
    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    This is what it looks like to have rails buckle (in Oz, but obv in the austral summer from the state of the vegetation). Not a long film, but start at 0:48 if you are impatient (but you will miss the initial viaduct, which raises very unpleasant thoughts).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LoXgN1QWZM
    Yeah. So no wonder that NR have imposed various speed restrictions on the routes that are still open. Some down to 20mph on specific bits of infrastructure that are the highest risk.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,152

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    Farcical. How are they even allowed to do this?
    Allowed by who?
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,885
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    The simple observable reality is that we are starting to see bigger and bigger impacts of climate change. I hustle vegan food as my main source of income so that does something, and drive a PHEV which is another.

    Still haven't committed to go full EV despite a Tesla Y on order. Full-size SUV is just too sodding useful up here - yet another example at the weekend of hauling items which *just* fit inside which wouldn't in the Tesla. I can see why there are so many pick-up trucks up here. Which I want/don't want. So the Outlander is the best compromise at the moment.

    Anyway, I don't think it is tooooo bad for the environment. Did a YouTube trip to Sandend then Cullen then Fraserburgh then home last week. 85 miles, 116mpg. Not too shabby.

    Winter too is a big 4x4 motivator, obvs.
    Even on summer tyres I managed to drive across Soutra bar in a blizzard whilst everything else got stuck. Super electronic trickery from Mitsubishi and the fine control that two electric motors offer even vs mechanical diff-locked 4WD did the job.

    Will be on winter tyres next time round. I want to go and explore places like the Lecht ski centre when there is actual snow on the ground...
    Winter tyres make a huge difference on snow.

    I've driven past a wheel spinning 4x4 in my normal FWD on winters (on the Glenshee road). The weather was pretty foul so I wasn't stopping!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    Pulpstar said:

    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Yes that was my take, clearly both camps feeling confident this morning. Sunak surely DOES have the votes, I wouldn't put my house on Truss having them - but could be some Mordaunt -> Sunak slippage that might help her.
    Mordaunt is complaining. Which adds credence to the theory.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,893
    LNER still running at Waverley
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,317

    What time do the MPs vote today in the election?

    Evening vote round 8ish from memory
    Vote 5 to 7pm; results 8pm. Then candidates head off to the dentist to avoid backing Boris in the confidence vote.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Bozo spouting random words as per usual on the BBC News right now...

    Edit: They've cut away as it is total gibberish.

    I’ve wondered for a long time if Boris Johnson is quite right in the head. The stuff that comes out of his mouth indicates either someone who is educationally subnormal or who is under such extreme stress that their mouth is acting independently of their brain.
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    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.
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    This is the poll they're all talking about

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,256
    edited July 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
    I'm quite annoyed I've clustered with other people. Should have gone for an outlier, maybe somewhere in Wales?

    That high reading this morning from north of Snowdonia (and now 38C there) is interesting - maybe a bit of Fohn effect going on, with the wind from the south?
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,152

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    It’s certainly worth looking at what can be done with the infrastructure, however it should be noted that this weather is exceptionally rare, even if becoming more frequent. Rather like buying thousands of snow ploughs in response to a snowy spell e g, Dec 2010, we should be careful of over reacting. This is a perfect storm of Synoptics at the hottest time of the year.
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    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,256
    edited July 2022
    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    Northolt at 31.8C and St James Park at 32.1C were hotter at 11 hrs.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Mumsnet. Lol.
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    They're frit
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.

    Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.

    ( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited July 2022

    Geordie usage in ascending order of temperature:

    Canny hot
    Hot
    Geet hot

    My Lancastrian grandfather if he was still alive would be saying right now:

    "It's crackin' t' flags out there!"
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    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.

    Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.

    ( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
    Some of the track here is 50 years old!
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Doesn't really back up what one poster put on here about women finding Rishi attractive unless Mumsnet has suddenly become a nest of lesbians.
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    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    MaxPB said:

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Mumsnet. Lol.

    Badenoch would sweep the right (streets ahead in the conhome poll) and hold her own with less con friendly groups as well.

    Clearly the best candidate. Will inherit the earth after the tories fall from power in 2024.

    What will be left? that's the question.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
    sensible advice (untick WOW in filters). Some of the amateur readings are barking

    Ramsgate 30 the current high
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    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,547

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Definitely with Sunak. I suspect with Truss it's more about fear of a repeat of Friday's performance (though, as I said, the Telegraph's writers were a lot more hostile about her performance than people have said on here - which should give pause for thought as it is supposed to be one of the main backers of Johnson's "Stop Rishi" campaign).
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    No
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,939

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    Subsidise e-bikes. Create separate cycle lanes completely sectioned off from roads through town centres and out to the suburbs. Treat them like tube lines, but in every city.

    Free park and ride in every city, starting 2 miles out of centre. Penalise car use in every city centre, congestion charge as needed etc.

    Government subsidised affordable "car share" clubs so people can rent car use by the hour, up to a certain numbers of hours, per week. Costs increasing per each additional hour.

    Invest in high speed maglev / hyperloop tech for fast city to city travel, cost and nimbys be damned. Plus motorway road pricing per mile.

    Ultimately 20th (and 21st) century life is structured entirely around the motorcar. Our cities are planned around it, our houses are built around it, our offices and out of town shopping centres are designed for it.

    I'm not advocating banning cars, far from it - just trying to imagine what our society might look like if it wasn't structured around the motorcar, and how we might get there.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,651

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.

    Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.

    ( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
    I believe some NR chaps have been outy with the white paint - at least for critical bits.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MISTY said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Mumsnet. Lol.

    Badenoch would sweep the right (streets ahead in the conhome poll) and hold her own with less con friendly groups as well.

    Clearly the best candidate. Will inherit the earth after the tories fall from power in 2024.

    What will be left? that's the question.
    Which is why I think a surprisingly large number of MPs will roll the dice now. They won't be in their jobs in 2024 if Sunak or Truss are the leaders, especially the Red Wall MPs.
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    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    I can give you plenty of reasons why he won't pull off a victory if you like.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,538
    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    Northolt at 31.8C and St James Park at 32.1C were hotter at 11 hrs.
    Where's the best place to see these official readings?
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    MISTY said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    I can give you plenty of reasons why he won't pull off a victory if you like.
    Sure, that would be interesting too.

    I am not a Tory expert so would like some insight for the betting.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,911

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Ukraine comes to a settlement, hydrocarbons dip, inflation lowers, Rishi says the pain was worth it. Major style '92 win. It's definitely possible. All to play for.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Badenoch might pull out after this next vote, don't we think?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,651

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    Maybe you'd call mumsnet a discussion group for soccer moms on everything from politics to spouse's and childrens' demerits? Not sure if that is fair ...
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,190

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    We could - but we won't. Even the semi-fictional GBR won't do so assuming it actually gets created with the brief that soon to be ex-Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox gave it.

    Too much of the network is done on the cheap. And yet costs £vast because of the nobcheese privatisation structure that has been maintained despite almost all of it being run by the DFT's preferred private contractors.

    As an example. The East Coast Mainline was wired on the cheap to save the Treasury money in the late 80s. Has cost way more in disruption and endless repairs than it would have cost Nigel Lawson to do it properly. And that's just the wires - a lack of power to go into the wires is why we have absurdities like franchises issued for what is now LNER to operate trains that the infrastructure is incapable of accommodating.

    The solution remains to copy the successful European models. State Owned, Commercially Run companies who borrow at government rates to build and run services run for public need.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,157
    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,651

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.

    Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.

    ( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
    Rather nice photo here showing what happens if the heat comes halfway through the job of renewing track ...

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/is-it-real-photo-of-railway-track-bent-by-the-heat-looks-fake-but-isn-t-20180214-p4z0c2.html
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Ukraine comes to a settlement, hydrocarbons dip, inflation lowers, Rishi says the pain was worth it. Major style '92 win. It's definitely possible. All to play for.
    I make the GE a 50/50 if he wins. Any of the women, Labour are favourites. Strong favourites if it's Truss.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
This discussion has been closed.