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Rishi and Liz looking stronger on the betting markets – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    IshmaelZ said:

    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Wow, the Tories are so afraid of public scrutiny that they won't even debate each other. Perhaps someone could find an extra large fridge for them to hide in together.
    Except they have done, twice. Good point though.
    Yeah, and realised that the more the public sees of them, the less they like them. So now they're running scared. Pathetic.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
    Our quite is their somewhat.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    I didn't know that the temperatures are measured in the shade. 40 degrees potentially in the shade...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs
  • Tim Bale is one of the best election analysts on Twitter.
  • Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    glw said:

    Met have changed forecast for tomorrow. Now saying extreme heat but 50% chance of afternoon thunder storms.

    Guess the computer just ran a new model run.

    One of the candidates should offer to buy the Met Office a brand new supercomputer. Lots of scope for rhetoric about levelling up, beating rival nations, British ingenuity and so on. Some of it will be true and we might even get better weather forecasts.
    They are already getting one, £1.2bn from the government. Funding announced in 2020, partnership announced last year.

    Met Office and Microsoft to build climate supercomputer
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56840169
    Exactly. It will be the fastest supercomputer exclusively used for meteorology. And despite some of the moaning there was when the deal was announced it all looks sensible to me. There aren't many organisations that can run a data centre more efficiently than Microsoft, maybe Amazon and Google, but Microsoft seem to be offering just what is needed for the Met Office in the UK.
    Well, it might be better in the long term to use British Datacentre and Hosting PLC but we are where we are. At some point we need to learn from the Americans to balance buying the best but also supporting and developing home industries.

    But this new supercomputer is good news (and of course, is really a cluster like they all are).
    The public sector will never compete, and there aren't any British companies that are of the same scale. There is a huge amount of capital investment and expertise that goes into running a state-of-the-art data centre. It's way more complicated than building, cooling, and buying some kit from Dell. Lots of custom hardware and software.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
    Our quite is their somewhat.
    Although interestingly. As a one-word response to a statement, ours indicates a strong agreement.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Our kitchen/diner will get fecking hot later - west-facing patio doors with no curtains.

    Yesterday I waited until after 10pm to do the washing up.

    Fortunately our bedroom is north-facing.

    You can improvise curtains with tape and sheets, towels or bin-liners. And stay cooler in bed by sleeping alone!
    I recommend sheets of reflective foil (as for wrapping roast chicken etc.) fixed to windows with blue tack.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    Betfair next prime minister
    2.22 Rishi Sunak. 45%
    3.65 Penny Mordaunt 27%
    4.8 Liz Truss 21%
    16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    150 Tom Tugendhat

    Next Conservative leader
    2.16 Rishi Sunak 46%
    3.7 Penny Mordaunt 27%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    17 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    200 Tom Tugendhat

    To be in final two
    1.05 Rishi Sunak 95%
    1.6 Penny Mordaunt 63%
    2.4 Liz Truss 42%
    9 Kemi Badenoch 11%
    100 Tom Tugendhat

    Rishi is now odds-on to be next prime minister, although still odds-against to be next Conservative leader.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.99 Rishi Sunak 50%
    3.85 Penny Mordaunt 26%
    4.6 Liz Truss 22%
    18.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    150 Tom Tugendhat

    Next Conservative leader
    2.04 Rishi Sunak 49%
    3.95 Penny Mordaunt 25%
    4.5 Liz Truss 22%
    17.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    170 Tom Tugendhat

    To be in final two
    1.05 Rishi Sunak 95%
    1.77 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    2.24 Liz Truss 45%
    9.2 Kemi Badenoch 11%
    100 Tom Tugendhat
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
    Our quite is their somewhat.
    Quite.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    My proposal for PB Word Of The Day

    quantophrenia - (noun, uncountable)

    1 - Excessive reliance on or use of facts and figures that can be derived using statistical or mathematical procedures.
    2 - The inappropriate application of such processes, especially in anthropology and sociology.

    quantophrenic is the adjective, and the noun for one who suffers from it

    When I was looking at other -phrenia words, I noticed cyclophrenia which is another word for bipolar disorder

    It's remarkably close to @Cyclefree - was that deliberate?
    No.

    I chose it because my very first comment on a public forum anywhere was about .... cycling. In Regents Park. And being free to do so without bossy boots officials whining at you.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just noticed that on the Accuweather word scale of heat, 'quite hot' is hotter than 'hot'

    That'll be the American usage.
    Quite strengthens the adjective there, but weakens it here.
    Our quite is their somewhat.
    Although interestingly. As a one-word response to a statement, ours indicates a strong agreement.
    Somewhat agree.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    Sunak heading to evens
    @Nigel_Foremain named my £5000 bet on Sunak as being an example of poor judgement the other day. 😂
    You put five grand on him?

    (Or you put £25 on him at 200/1?)
    £20 @ 250/1
  • Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,663

    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
    I'm quite annoyed I've clustered with other people. Should have gone for an outlier, maybe somewhere in Wales?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Just got back from a few days in the Italian lakes. It was very hot but very agreeable. Nice to get back to the cool of England, though.

    Anything much happened whilst I've been away?

    Not much. The soaring heights of political rhetoric in the leadership debates; England won some cricket but lost some other cricket; PB has interesting new posters.
    And lost an uninteresting one.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited July 2022
    jonny83 said:

    I didn't know that the temperatures are measured in the shade. 40 degrees potentially in the shade...

    Well, technically a Stevenson screen in full sun over grass in open ground (not sheltered) so that they are comparable with the historic record, but yes, effectively shade temperature. A number of the Met Office stations don't actually meet the criteria but that's an argument for another day.

    It might actually be cloudy at the peak of the heat. It was in Portugal.

    A full on hairdryer wind.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    glw said:

    glw said:

    Met have changed forecast for tomorrow. Now saying extreme heat but 50% chance of afternoon thunder storms.

    Guess the computer just ran a new model run.

    One of the candidates should offer to buy the Met Office a brand new supercomputer. Lots of scope for rhetoric about levelling up, beating rival nations, British ingenuity and so on. Some of it will be true and we might even get better weather forecasts.
    They are already getting one, £1.2bn from the government. Funding announced in 2020, partnership announced last year.

    Met Office and Microsoft to build climate supercomputer
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56840169
    Exactly. It will be the fastest supercomputer exclusively used for meteorology. And despite some of the moaning there was when the deal was announced it all looks sensible to me. There aren't many organisations that can run a data centre more efficiently than Microsoft, maybe Amazon and Google, but Microsoft seem to be offering just what is needed for the Met Office in the UK.
    Well, it might be better in the long term to use British Datacentre and Hosting PLC but we are where we are. At some point we need to learn from the Americans to balance buying the best but also supporting and developing home industries.

    But this new supercomputer is good news (and of course, is really a cluster like they all are).
    The public sector will never compete, and there aren't any British companies that are of the same scale. There is a huge amount of capital investment and expertise that goes into running a state-of-the-art data centre. It's way more complicated than building, cooling, and buying some kit from Dell. Lots of custom hardware and software.
    True. And this level of government investment could pay for it. There are already lots of datacentres in Britain, it is not something recently invented by Microsoft (who do score as one of the so-called hyperscalers for cloud computing, again an American-dominated industry).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Wow, the Tories are so afraid of public scrutiny that they won't even debate each other. Perhaps someone could find an extra large fridge for them to hide in together.
    I must have missed the two other debates broadcast to the nation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    Speak for yourself....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    32.7 is the record for this year so far.
  • What time do the MPs vote today in the election?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    Apart from the usual suspects who keep the country going of course.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Farooq said:

    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)

    Pretty unlikely now that we will reach 40c today (or even that close). It was too 'cool' at dawn to get us there. Tomorrow? We shall see!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Personally, I think we should be debating the sky, given what the sky is going to do to us today with this heat.
  • Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    Speak for yourself....
    How are you Francis?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    edited July 2022
    jonny83 said:

    Debate on Sky has been cancelled.

    Noted that Truss and Sunak were the scaredy-cats.

    Still not ready to answer what is a woman"?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    I think my Goole prediction was an error tbh - more in the running tommorow.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Farooq said:

    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)

    Pretty unlikely now that we will reach 40c today (or even that close). It was too 'cool' at dawn to get us there. Tomorrow? We shall see!
    I can now see some 40s as the predicted high temps on Met Office now - St. Neots, Huntingdon, Peterborough, Stamford, Spalding
  • Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    32.7 is the record for this year so far.
    33C at Hawarden yesterday

    https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1548806499295690753?cxt=HHwWgoCwhcTTu_4qAAAA
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Morning reprobates.
    Obsession of the day weather report from Norwich is currently lovely high 20s. No melting rocks to report.
    Sensible chickening out of the debate, Tories absolutely mincing themselves. Wait till its a choice of two!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022

    What time do the MPs vote today in the election?

    Evening vote round 8ish from memory
  • Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
    I'm quite annoyed I've clustered with other people. Should have gone for an outlier, maybe somewhere in Wales?
    Sorry about that btw; I just looked for somewhere called Boiling
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Carnyx said:

    The simple observable reality is that we are starting to see bigger and bigger impacts of climate change. I hustle vegan food as my main source of income so that does something, and drive a PHEV which is another.

    Still haven't committed to go full EV despite a Tesla Y on order. Full-size SUV is just too sodding useful up here - yet another example at the weekend of hauling items which *just* fit inside which wouldn't in the Tesla. I can see why there are so many pick-up trucks up here. Which I want/don't want. So the Outlander is the best compromise at the moment.

    Anyway, I don't think it is tooooo bad for the environment. Did a YouTube trip to Sandend then Cullen then Fraserburgh then home last week. 85 miles, 116mpg. Not too shabby.

    Winter too is a big 4x4 motivator, obvs.
    Even on summer tyres I managed to drive across Soutra bar in a blizzard whilst everything else got stuck. Super electronic trickery from Mitsubishi and the fine control that two electric motors offer even vs mechanical diff-locked 4WD did the job.

    Will be on winter tyres next time round. I want to go and explore places like the Lecht ski centre when there is actual snow on the ground...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    Farcical. How are they even allowed to do this?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Yes that was my take, clearly both camps feeling confident this morning. Sunak surely DOES have the votes, I wouldn't put my house on Truss having them - but could be some Mordaunt -> Sunak slippage that might help her.
  • Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Smart politics.

    Tony Blair vetoed every debate he could have taken part in.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    I've been pretty productive so far! Even chats with you fine people is in-between sending Q out and the response coming in.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Seems like we've all just accepted no work will get done today

    Speak for yourself....
    One summer decades ago I was visiting friends in Louisiana. Don't know exact temperature, but normally would be over 90F in afternoon with humidity pushing 80% and sunny.

    A crew of men were installing a new roof under that blazing sun. I'd spent years in that climate, including some without air conditioning. And could NOT believe that they could stand such conditions for hours at a stretch, let alone work under them.

    These guys were heavily suntanned and looked hot as hell. Yet seemed to think nothing of it.

    As Brendan Behan used to say, what can't be cured must be endured.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Didn't big dog skip the 2019 leader debates ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    Farcical. How are they even allowed to do this?
    Because the media companies schedule these things, without asking the actual candidates first! The candidates who are spending today at their own hustings, and then in Parliament.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    This is what it looks like to have rails buckle (in Oz, but obv in the austral summer from the state of the vegetation). Not a long film, but start at 0:48 if you are impatient (but you will miss the initial viaduct, which raises very unpleasant thoughts).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LoXgN1QWZM
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    This is what it looks like to have rails buckle (in Oz, but obv in the austral summer from the state of the vegetation). Not a long film, but start at 0:48 if you are impatient (but you will miss the initial viaduct, which raises very unpleasant thoughts).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LoXgN1QWZM
    Yeah. So no wonder that NR have imposed various speed restrictions on the routes that are still open. Some down to 20mph on specific bits of infrastructure that are the highest risk.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Sky officially confirming their leadership debate is cancelled. 🤣

    Farcical. How are they even allowed to do this?
    Allowed by who?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    The simple observable reality is that we are starting to see bigger and bigger impacts of climate change. I hustle vegan food as my main source of income so that does something, and drive a PHEV which is another.

    Still haven't committed to go full EV despite a Tesla Y on order. Full-size SUV is just too sodding useful up here - yet another example at the weekend of hauling items which *just* fit inside which wouldn't in the Tesla. I can see why there are so many pick-up trucks up here. Which I want/don't want. So the Outlander is the best compromise at the moment.

    Anyway, I don't think it is tooooo bad for the environment. Did a YouTube trip to Sandend then Cullen then Fraserburgh then home last week. 85 miles, 116mpg. Not too shabby.

    Winter too is a big 4x4 motivator, obvs.
    Even on summer tyres I managed to drive across Soutra bar in a blizzard whilst everything else got stuck. Super electronic trickery from Mitsubishi and the fine control that two electric motors offer even vs mechanical diff-locked 4WD did the job.

    Will be on winter tyres next time round. I want to go and explore places like the Lecht ski centre when there is actual snow on the ground...
    Winter tyres make a huge difference on snow.

    I've driven past a wheel spinning 4x4 in my normal FWD on winters (on the Glenshee road). The weather was pretty foul so I wasn't stopping!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Pulpstar said:

    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Yes that was my take, clearly both camps feeling confident this morning. Sunak surely DOES have the votes, I wouldn't put my house on Truss having them - but could be some Mordaunt -> Sunak slippage that might help her.
    Mordaunt is complaining. Which adds credence to the theory.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,663
    LNER still running at Waverley
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    What time do the MPs vote today in the election?

    Evening vote round 8ish from memory
    Vote 5 to 7pm; results 8pm. Then candidates head off to the dentist to avoid backing Boris in the confidence vote.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Bozo spouting random words as per usual on the BBC News right now...

    Edit: They've cut away as it is total gibberish.

    I’ve wondered for a long time if Boris Johnson is quite right in the head. The stuff that comes out of his mouth indicates either someone who is educationally subnormal or who is under such extreme stress that their mouth is acting independently of their brain.
  • We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.
  • This is the poll they're all talking about

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited July 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Closed to new entries. Have a missed anyone from earlier?

    Sorry I am late. I'll try St Albans.
    I'm quite annoyed I've clustered with other people. Should have gone for an outlier, maybe somewhere in Wales?

    That high reading this morning from north of Snowdonia (and now 38C there) is interesting - maybe a bit of Fohn effect going on, with the wind from the south?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    It’s certainly worth looking at what can be done with the infrastructure, however it should be noted that this weather is exceptionally rare, even if becoming more frequent. Rather like buying thousands of snow ploughs in response to a snowy spell e g, Dec 2010, we should be careful of over reacting. This is a perfect storm of Synoptics at the hottest time of the year.
  • This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited July 2022
    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    Northolt at 31.8C and St James Park at 32.1C were hotter at 11 hrs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Mumsnet. Lol.
  • They're frit
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.

    Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.

    ( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    edited July 2022

    Geordie usage in ascending order of temperature:

    Canny hot
    Hot
    Geet hot

    My Lancastrian grandfather if he was still alive would be saying right now:

    "It's crackin' t' flags out there!"
  • pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.

    Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.

    ( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
    Some of the track here is 50 years old!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Doesn't really back up what one poster put on here about women finding Rishi attractive unless Mumsnet has suddenly become a nest of lesbians.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    MaxPB said:

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Mumsnet. Lol.

    Badenoch would sweep the right (streets ahead in the conhome poll) and hold her own with less con friendly groups as well.

    Clearly the best candidate. Will inherit the earth after the tories fall from power in 2024.

    What will be left? that's the question.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
    sensible advice (untick WOW in filters). Some of the amateur readings are barking

    Ramsgate 30 the current high
  • Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Definitely with Sunak. I suspect with Truss it's more about fear of a repeat of Friday's performance (though, as I said, the Telegraph's writers were a lot more hostile about her performance than people have said on here - which should give pause for thought as it is supposed to be one of the main backers of Johnson's "Stop Rishi" campaign).
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    No
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    Subsidise e-bikes. Create separate cycle lanes completely sectioned off from roads through town centres and out to the suburbs. Treat them like tube lines, but in every city.

    Free park and ride in every city, starting 2 miles out of centre. Penalise car use in every city centre, congestion charge as needed etc.

    Government subsidised affordable "car share" clubs so people can rent car use by the hour, up to a certain numbers of hours, per week. Costs increasing per each additional hour.

    Invest in high speed maglev / hyperloop tech for fast city to city travel, cost and nimbys be damned. Plus motorway road pricing per mile.

    Ultimately 20th (and 21st) century life is structured entirely around the motorcar. Our cities are planned around it, our houses are built around it, our offices and out of town shopping centres are designed for it.

    I'm not advocating banning cars, far from it - just trying to imagine what our society might look like if it wasn't structured around the motorcar, and how we might get there.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.

    Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.

    ( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
    I believe some NR chaps have been outy with the white paint - at least for critical bits.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MISTY said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Mumsnet. Lol.

    Badenoch would sweep the right (streets ahead in the conhome poll) and hold her own with less con friendly groups as well.

    Clearly the best candidate. Will inherit the earth after the tories fall from power in 2024.

    What will be left? that's the question.
    Which is why I think a surprisingly large number of MPs will roll the dice now. They won't be in their jobs in 2024 if Sunak or Truss are the leaders, especially the Red Wall MPs.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    I can give you plenty of reasons why he won't pull off a victory if you like.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    Northolt at 31.8C and St James Park at 32.1C were hotter at 11 hrs.
    Where's the best place to see these official readings?
  • MISTY said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    I can give you plenty of reasons why he won't pull off a victory if you like.
    Sure, that would be interesting too.

    I am not a Tory expert so would like some insight for the betting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Ukraine comes to a settlement, hydrocarbons dip, inflation lowers, Rishi says the pain was worth it. Major style '92 win. It's definitely possible. All to play for.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Badenoch might pull out after this next vote, don't we think?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    Maybe you'd call mumsnet a discussion group for soccer moms on everything from politics to spouse's and childrens' demerits? Not sure if that is fair ...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    We could - but we won't. Even the semi-fictional GBR won't do so assuming it actually gets created with the brief that soon to be ex-Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox gave it.

    Too much of the network is done on the cheap. And yet costs £vast because of the nobcheese privatisation structure that has been maintained despite almost all of it being run by the DFT's preferred private contractors.

    As an example. The East Coast Mainline was wired on the cheap to save the Treasury money in the late 80s. Has cost way more in disruption and endless repairs than it would have cost Nigel Lawson to do it properly. And that's just the wires - a lack of power to go into the wires is why we have absurdities like franchises issued for what is now LNER to operate trains that the infrastructure is incapable of accommodating.

    The solution remains to copy the successful European models. State Owned, Commercially Run companies who borrow at government rates to build and run services run for public need.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    pigeon said:

    Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.

    Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.

    As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas:
    1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad.
    2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.

    Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
    Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.

    Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.

    ( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
    Rather nice photo here showing what happens if the heat comes halfway through the job of renewing track ...

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/is-it-real-photo-of-railway-track-bent-by-the-heat-looks-fake-but-isn-t-20180214-p4z0c2.html
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Ukraine comes to a settlement, hydrocarbons dip, inflation lowers, Rishi says the pain was worth it. Major style '92 win. It's definitely possible. All to play for.
    I make the GE a 50/50 if he wins. Any of the women, Labour are favourites. Strong favourites if it's Truss.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I assume the actual Heathrow reading is on grass ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    SKS continues to surprise on the downside, and facing not-Boris may really shake him. I keep saying, and not just to troll his supporters, that I would have backed him to come last (with the general public) if he had been given a wildcard entry into last night's debate. He just isn't very good at all.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    kyf_100 said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    Subsidise e-bikes. Create separate cycle lanes completely sectioned off from roads through town centres and out to the suburbs. Treat them like tube lines, but in every city.

    Free park and ride in every city, starting 2 miles out of centre. Penalise car use in every city centre, congestion charge as needed etc.

    Government subsidised affordable "car share" clubs so people can rent car use by the hour, up to a certain numbers of hours, per week. Costs increasing per each additional hour.

    Invest in high speed maglev / hyperloop tech for fast city to city travel, cost and nimbys be damned. Plus motorway road pricing per mile.

    Ultimately 20th (and 21st) century life is structured entirely around the motorcar. Our cities are planned around it, our houses are built around it, our offices and out of town shopping centres are designed for it.

    I'm not advocating banning cars, far from it - just trying to imagine what our society might look like if it wasn't structured around the motorcar, and how we might get there.
    That works in urban and suburban areas. Meanwhile out in the sticks we either need bus services (which nobody is willing to pay for) or you're using the car.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    Northolt at 31.8C and St James Park at 32.1C were hotter at 11 hrs.
    Where's the best place to see these official readings?
    Many places - I tend to use
    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/observations.php?map=20&model=SYNOP&var=5&h=0
    https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperatures.php
  • We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    We could - but we won't. Even the semi-fictional GBR won't do so assuming it actually gets created with the brief that soon to be ex-Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox gave it.

    Too much of the network is done on the cheap. And yet costs £vast because of the nobcheese privatisation structure that has been maintained despite almost all of it being run by the DFT's preferred private contractors.

    As an example. The East Coast Mainline was wired on the cheap to save the Treasury money in the late 80s. Has cost way more in disruption and endless repairs than it would have cost Nigel Lawson to do it properly. And that's just the wires - a lack of power to go into the wires is why we have absurdities like franchises issued for what is now LNER to operate trains that the infrastructure is incapable of accommodating.

    The solution remains to copy the successful European models. State Owned, Commercially Run companies who borrow at government rates to build and run services run for public need.
    It is a testament to how good our engineering ability was/is, that the InterCity 125 has lasted as long as it has.

    I was looking at how quickly and early we got certain electrifications done, genuinely impressive.

    We should be racing ahead in railways and yet we are stuck. We need a transport revolution.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    jonny83 said:

    I didn't know that the temperatures are measured in the shade. 40 degrees potentially in the shade...

    Sun measurements are regularly over 50 degrees I think.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    SKS continues to surprise on the downside, and facing not-Boris may really shake him. I keep saying, and not just to troll his supporters, that I would have backed him to come last (with the general public) if he had been given a wildcard entry into last night's debate. He just isn't very good at all.
    I'm afraid I disagree, he'd even Sunak for sure. They're both dull as dishwater but Sunak is Gordon Brown.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I had a thermometer once. Left it in my car and it broke :D
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    And phew what a scorcher! I like the heat but this is OTT.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    No I don't think he will.

    I genuinely don't think he has any answers in the economic front which was evidenced by his piss poor performance as Chancellor. I think we haven't even scratched the surface yet on how bad this cost of living crisis is going to get.

    I think his financial status including his Wife's will be brought up a lot and he will get defensive. From what I've seen he doesn't deal with it well enough.

    I think with the electorate he will be seen as too much as part of the previous regime. His FPN and Partygate will haunt him with the electorate.

    And overall perhaps some of this pretty much out of his control I feel like there is this feeling in the air it's time the Conservaties need to go in opposition for a while.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Re the betting, the odds for Truss seem to be predicated on the views that (1) enough MPs can be essentially forced to vote for her despite her consistently polling poorly when it comes to the public and (2) the Johnson camp see her as the "Stop Sunak" candidate.

    On (2), Johnson's main motivation is to stop Sunak, not back Truss. If, in the next few days, there starts to be a view that Truss is so useless she may lose to Sunak in the final round, they will look for another option (probably Badenoch).

    On (1), I don't see it. What I do think is interesting is that we could get a split here between the traditional, Southern-based Tory MPs who go with the "establishment" candidates and the newer, mainly Northern and Midlands-based MPs who want to go with something different.
This discussion has been closed.