Penny doesn’t really stand for much but she looks good and has a calm manner which is quite comforting . I like her voice and I think world leaders would be somewhat star struck when they meet her .
Not sure what the big deal is on a lack of detail , get a good team and job done .
Perhaps her Bondish Money Penny styling is clouding my judgement !
I like her too - but she's not bright or focused enough to be a good PM imo.
If "Jen" in "The IT Crowd" could be head of the IT Dept without knowing squat about computers, then surely "Penny" of "The BJ Crowd" can be head of the Con Govt.
There’s an oddly concerted, oddly standardised way in which Twitter posts rubbishing the heatwave are focusing on supposed “colour inflation” on BBC maps (which is hilariously wrong, the colours are redder because it’s hotter - colour scheme has hardly changed) and the comparison of “2 days” vs that Blitz of boomer weather lore, 1976.
Either all these people are having the same idea at once, and using the same painstakingly archived material, or there’s something going on.
I suspect there’s something going on. How much did it cost, lads?
Hot weather like this has always happened. Someone posted the hottest temps going back a hundred years or so, and back in the early part of the 20th century there were 35 deg days on occasion. The difference is that climate change has shifted the dial a few degrees hotter, and hence what might have been mid thirties is likely to near or exceed 40. But 1976 was different for longevity. The hot for the next 48 hours is a plume event, 76 was a very different thing.
Thanks for the egg sucking instructions, but you’re completely missing the point of my post.
But then again perhaps the similarity of your reply to the general gist of those Twitter posts suggests I was wrong and this is just an organic thing rather than anything organised.
I think Labour will be reasonably content with Truss, Sunak or Mordaunt.
They’d probably prefer Truss, but Rishi is offering nothing except the highest taxes in 70 years and is not supported by a large chunk of his own party.
Mordaunt, meanwhile, could surprise on the upside, but chances of her self-destructing seem high.
Liz saw the damage the Tories had done to education and loved it so joined them !
But she didn't even do that! her response to the Tory government blameless for her school situation was to join the LibDems. Which as she said is why she is a True Tory.
Sunak - mostly because he spoke the most and had to counter questions and attacks more, and largely did so well Truss - Confident, direct, painted it as her vs Rishi Kemi - Quieter, but when speaking mostly did well Tugendhat - had some moments, but largely irrelevant Mordaunt - Made no real impact
In order of debate winners
Truss - more substantial a figure than Mordaunt, and though she had some bad answers from my POV, nothing to sink her. From this I'd think she can overtake Mordaunt. Sunak - Still comes across well, and dealt with attacks mostly ok. Solidified his position with MPs I think. Tugendhat - was going nowhere and still is, so no change. Kemi - did not grab attention, felt like a bystander Mordaunt - eclipsed massively by Truss, had no standout moments.
Sunak's problem is not that he doesn't come across well, it is that he is too slick and won't understand people's concerns. What in tonight's debate provided evidence that addressed this?
I've never bought into the idea that slick presentation means you cannot understand peoples' concerns. I don't think politicians who imply such things believe it either, since they don't claim it if they/their leader presents well. It is just something they claim if they know they are not as good at presenting as their opponent, so it is fundamentally a dishonest attack when Rishi's counterparts imply it.
However, I agree that many do think that of Rishi (though I disagree it is because of his slickness), and agree he hasn't addressed that. How can he? If he says he understands people don't believe him.
It may not be fair but that is life. Sunak's problem is that he was in charge of the Treasury. So when you are making decisions that impact people's income, such as putting up NI, your personal circumstances are going to be even more in the spotlight if you are a very rich individual with a wife that has / had non-Dom status etc.
Sunak is the candidate Labour would love to face because any decision that has an impact on people's finances - as almost all will - will be contrasted with his wealth and status. It will be a 24 hour shitfest about Rich-y Rishi. And there are plenty of people out there with whom that message will resonate.
I am Labour and I can assure you this is not right. The one we want is Truss.
I didn't say you wouldn't want Truss. I agree you would and she would be poor as well. But, as the by-elections results show at local and Parliamentary level, Labour hasn't sealed the deal in the Red Wall seats. Sunak as PM would make that a lot easier.
This is a great debate for Mordaunt! Unless there’s something disastrous in the second 15 minutes, I don’t see what the bad reviews are about.
I agree, she was better than in the last debate, and is still one of the two frontrunners no doubt. I think it's largely that PB, generally quite cerebral and often with a bias towards the statistical, is fairly immune to her slightly more touchy-feely, metaphorically speaking, charms.
I hope you’re right. I’d feel tremendously more comfortable knowing that either Sunak or Mordaunt were going to be PM than the risk of Liz Truss.
Personally I think Penny comes across as very likeable but my concern is that she doesn’t seem to have a clear grasp of the issues and struggles to be incisive. She may be ok leading a collaborative cabinet government if it was fairly new to power but given we are 12 years into Tory government my suspicion is that the Party will start infighting and she won’t be able to stop them, and will go into the next election rudderless and indecisive.
Did all those saying Truss did better watch the same thing as me?! Does no one have anything to say about her praising the Bank of Japan for “keeping inflation low”? What a helmet. All those years round Cabinet and her grasp of economics is frighteningly poor.
I still don’t get how Sunak can claim a fresh start having been chancellor for two years and carrying points on his licence (FPN).
That's true, but its hilarious to me that Liz is running as the continuity Boris candidate, and backed as such, when Sunak is the one defending the decisions of the Boris government on tax.
She's basically saying the last government was awesome, but Rishi is terrible because he would continue the policies of that government.
Sunak - mostly because he spoke the most and had to counter questions and attacks more, and largely did so well Truss - Confident, direct, painted it as her vs Rishi Kemi - Quieter, but when speaking mostly did well Tugendhat - had some moments, but largely irrelevant Mordaunt - Made no real impact
In order of debate winners
Truss - more substantial a figure than Mordaunt, and though she had some bad answers from my POV, nothing to sink her. From this I'd think she can overtake Mordaunt. Sunak - Still comes across well, and dealt with attacks mostly ok. Solidified his position with MPs I think. Tugendhat - was going nowhere and still is, so no change. Kemi - did not grab attention, felt like a bystander Mordaunt - eclipsed massively by Truss, had no standout moments.
Sunak's problem is not that he doesn't come across well, it is that he is too slick and won't understand people's concerns. What in tonight's debate provided evidence that addressed this?
I've never bought into the idea that slick presentation means you cannot understand peoples' concerns. I don't think politicians who imply such things believe it either, since they don't claim it if they/their leader presents well. It is just something they claim if they know they are not as good at presenting as their opponent, so it is fundamentally a dishonest attack when Rishi's counterparts imply it.
However, I agree that many do think that of Rishi (though I disagree it is because of his slickness), and agree he hasn't addressed that. How can he? If he says he understands people don't believe him.
It may not be fair but that is life. Sunak's problem is that he was in charge of the Treasury. So when you are making decisions that impact people's income, such as putting up NI, your personal circumstances are going to be even more in the spotlight if you are a very rich individual with a wife that has / had non-Dom status etc.
Sunak is the candidate Labour would love to face because any decision that has an impact on people's finances - as almost all will - will be contrasted with his wealth and status. It will be a 24 hour shitfest about Rich-y Rishi. And there are plenty of people out there with whom that message will resonate.
I am Labour and I can assure you this is not right. The one we want is Truss.
Truss is a gift to Labour and Lib Dems, SNP too. Johnson without the jokes and personality.
Liz Is Crap Is Prime Minister.
Truss is political marmite and a bit odd, but - and it’s a big but - she’s apparently the only one amongst this lot with any coherent political philosophy. In the circumstances of the next two years, that conviction could well help her stay the course, whereas others could well be blown off course.
Sunak - mostly because he spoke the most and had to counter questions and attacks more, and largely did so well Truss - Confident, direct, painted it as her vs Rishi Kemi - Quieter, but when speaking mostly did well Tugendhat - had some moments, but largely irrelevant Mordaunt - Made no real impact
In order of debate winners
Truss - more substantial a figure than Mordaunt, and though she had some bad answers from my POV, nothing to sink her. From this I'd think she can overtake Mordaunt. Sunak - Still comes across well, and dealt with attacks mostly ok. Solidified his position with MPs I think. Tugendhat - was going nowhere and still is, so no change. Kemi - did not grab attention, felt like a bystander Mordaunt - eclipsed massively by Truss, had no standout moments.
Sunak's problem is not that he doesn't come across well, it is that he is too slick and won't understand people's concerns. What in tonight's debate provided evidence that addressed this?
I've never bought into the idea that slick presentation means you cannot understand peoples' concerns. I don't think politicians who imply such things believe it either, since they don't claim it if they/their leader presents well. It is just something they claim if they know they are not as good at presenting as their opponent, so it is fundamentally a dishonest attack when Rishi's counterparts imply it.
However, I agree that many do think that of Rishi (though I disagree it is because of his slickness), and agree he hasn't addressed that. How can he? If he says he understands people don't believe him.
It may not be fair but that is life. Sunak's problem is that he was in charge of the Treasury. So when you are making decisions that impact people's income, such as putting up NI, your personal circumstances are going to be even more in the spotlight if you are a very rich individual with a wife that has / had non-Dom status etc.
Sunak is the candidate Labour would love to face because any decision that has an impact on people's finances - as almost all will - will be contrasted with his wealth and status. It will be a 24 hour shitfest about Rich-y Rishi. And there are plenty of people out there with whom that message will resonate.
I am Labour and I can assure you this is not right. The one we want is Truss.
MrEd loves to pretend he knows about Labour politics but has been shown to be a nonsense speaker before. I don’t think he’s ever met a Labour member.
Horse loves to pretend he knows about me. I was a Labour member during the early Cameron years and met many. I have actually more friends and acquaintances who are left-leaning than right.
I do like you Horse but you do talk some Horse Shit sometimes.
Penny doesn’t really stand for much but she looks good and has a calm manner which is quite comforting . I like her voice and I think world leaders would be somewhat star struck when they meet her .
Not sure what the big deal is on a lack of detail , get a good team and job done .
Perhaps her Bondish Money Penny styling is clouding my judgement !
I like her too - but she's not bright or focused enough to be a good PM imo.
If "Jen" in "The IT Crowd" could be head of the IT Dept without knowing squat about computers, then surely "Penny" of "The BJ Crowd" can be head of the Con Govt.
Indeed, Mordaunt as PM front woman with Sunak as Chancellor, Tugendhat as Foreign Secretary and Davis as Home Secretary would be fine, maybe Truss at Business and Badenoch as Party Chairman.
A lot of the PM role is about setting the right direction and selling your government to the country, Reagan was no intellectual but had a top Cabinet full of heavyweights and a brilliant salesman. Brown was also brighter than Blair but Blair was the better PM, Brown more suited to the detail of Chancellor
Sunak - mostly because he spoke the most and had to counter questions and attacks more, and largely did so well Truss - Confident, direct, painted it as her vs Rishi Kemi - Quieter, but when speaking mostly did well Tugendhat - had some moments, but largely irrelevant Mordaunt - Made no real impact
In order of debate winners
Truss - more substantial a figure than Mordaunt, and though she had some bad answers from my POV, nothing to sink her. From this I'd think she can overtake Mordaunt. Sunak - Still comes across well, and dealt with attacks mostly ok. Solidified his position with MPs I think. Tugendhat - was going nowhere and still is, so no change. Kemi - did not grab attention, felt like a bystander Mordaunt - eclipsed massively by Truss, had no standout moments.
Sunak's problem is not that he doesn't come across well, it is that he is too slick and won't understand people's concerns. What in tonight's debate provided evidence that addressed this?
I've never bought into the idea that slick presentation means you cannot understand peoples' concerns. I don't think politicians who imply such things believe it either, since they don't claim it if they/their leader presents well. It is just something they claim if they know they are not as good at presenting as their opponent, so it is fundamentally a dishonest attack when Rishi's counterparts imply it.
However, I agree that many do think that of Rishi (though I disagree it is because of his slickness), and agree he hasn't addressed that. How can he? If he says he understands people don't believe him.
It may not be fair but that is life. Sunak's problem is that he was in charge of the Treasury. So when you are making decisions that impact people's income, such as putting up NI, your personal circumstances are going to be even more in the spotlight if you are a very rich individual with a wife that has / had non-Dom status etc.
Sunak is the candidate Labour would love to face because any decision that has an impact on people's finances - as almost all will - will be contrasted with his wealth and status. It will be a 24 hour shitfest about Rich-y Rishi. And there are plenty of people out there with whom that message will resonate.
I am Labour and I can assure you this is not right. The one we want is Truss.
MrEd loves to pretend he knows about Labour politics but has been shown to be a nonsense speaker before. I don’t think he’s ever met a Labour member.
Horse loves to pretend he knows about me. I was a Labour member during the early Cameron years and met many. I have actually more friends and acquaintances who are left-leaning than right.
I do like you Horse but you do talk some Horse Shit sometimes.
Penny doesn’t really stand for much but she looks good and has a calm manner which is quite comforting . I like her voice and I think world leaders would be somewhat star struck when they meet her .
Not sure what the big deal is on a lack of detail , get a good team and job done .
Perhaps her Bondish Money Penny styling is clouding my judgement !
I like her too - but she's not bright or focused enough to be a good PM imo.
If "Jen" in "The IT Crowd" could be head of the IT Dept without knowing squat about computers, then surely "Penny" of "The BJ Crowd" can be head of the Con Govt.
Yes, but Jen was pretty good in that job. She kept the lads on side and impressed management. At least until she dropped the internet.
Meanwhile Rishi keeps wheeling out the “nation’s credit card” bollox. I’m concerned he actually believes this and plans to run a balanced budget during what might be a fierce economic contraction.
Mordaunt is bland. No idea what she stands for still. Kemi is there to raise her profile so Rishi can appoint her Chancellor I suspect.
That's a link to the discussion forum. I hope you are not suggesting that there is a danger that contributors to specialised internet discussion boards have a deficient understanding of their subject?
Really just posting for the links in that link to recent models.
Not because I think he is the bee's knees or anything, but because Truss knows she is not as good at answering things and presenting herself, so she will just go hard on how she is the true Brexiter and belittle any attempt to discuss detail, as he will probably out debate her on such matters.
If that’s the final two, I think it’s 50/50 Truss will drop a clanger and drop out.
Apparently they may have had to sign something promising they won't do that if they get to the final two.
I'm just not sure she can drop any clanger big enough to ruin her chances against Sunak - she is the hard Brexiter's choice, many members don't like Rishi, and she is right she is an experienced minister, unlikely to make a devastating cock up.
Sunak - mostly because he spoke the most and had to counter questions and attacks more, and largely did so well Truss - Confident, direct, painted it as her vs Rishi Kemi - Quieter, but when speaking mostly did well Tugendhat - had some moments, but largely irrelevant Mordaunt - Made no real impact
In order of debate winners
Truss - more substantial a figure than Mordaunt, and though she had some bad answers from my POV, nothing to sink her. From this I'd think she can overtake Mordaunt. Sunak - Still comes across well, and dealt with attacks mostly ok. Solidified his position with MPs I think. Tugendhat - was going nowhere and still is, so no change. Kemi - did not grab attention, felt like a bystander Mordaunt - eclipsed massively by Truss, had no standout moments.
Sunak's problem is not that he doesn't come across well, it is that he is too slick and won't understand people's concerns. What in tonight's debate provided evidence that addressed this?
I've never bought into the idea that slick presentation means you cannot understand peoples' concerns. I don't think politicians who imply such things believe it either, since they don't claim it if they/their leader presents well. It is just something they claim if they know they are not as good at presenting as their opponent, so it is fundamentally a dishonest attack when Rishi's counterparts imply it.
However, I agree that many do think that of Rishi (though I disagree it is because of his slickness), and agree he hasn't addressed that. How can he? If he says he understands people don't believe him.
It may not be fair but that is life. Sunak's problem is that he was in charge of the Treasury. So when you are making decisions that impact people's income, such as putting up NI, your personal circumstances are going to be even more in the spotlight if you are a very rich individual with a wife that has / had non-Dom status etc.
Sunak is the candidate Labour would love to face because any decision that has an impact on people's finances - as almost all will - will be contrasted with his wealth and status. It will be a 24 hour shitfest about Rich-y Rishi. And there are plenty of people out there with whom that message will resonate.
I am Labour and I can assure you this is not right. The one we want is Truss.
MrEd loves to pretend he knows about Labour politics but has been shown to be a nonsense speaker before. I don’t think he’s ever met a Labour member.
Horse loves to pretend he knows about me. I was a Labour member during the early Cameron years and met many. I have actually more friends and acquaintances who are left-leaning than right.
I do like you Horse but you do talk some Horse Shit sometimes.
There are two things about Truss I actually like. I like the fact that our Barty met her and they had a good chat about productivity. That shows she's on top of things, and passionate. The second is the fact that she's acknowledged her presentation isn't the best. That acknowledgement is more than May ever managed.
There's a lot I am not so keen on, but this is a positive post.
I think Labour will be reasonably content with Truss, Sunak or Mordaunt.
They’d probably prefer Truss, but Rishi is offering nothing except the highest taxes in 70 years and is not supported by a large chunk of his own party.
Mordaunt, meanwhile, could surprise on the upside, but chances of her self-destructing seem high.
Are you saying Badenoch would be the best choice for the Tories?
There’s an oddly concerted, oddly standardised way in which Twitter posts rubbishing the heatwave are focusing on supposed “colour inflation” on BBC maps (which is hilariously wrong, the colours are redder because it’s hotter - colour scheme has hardly changed) and the comparison of “2 days” vs that Blitz of boomer weather lore, 1976.
Either all these people are having the same idea at once, and using the same painstakingly archived material, or there’s something going on.
I suspect there’s something going on. How much did it cost, lads?
Hot weather like this has always happened. Someone posted the hottest temps going back a hundred years or so, and back in the early part of the 20th century there were 35 deg days on occasion. The difference is that climate change has shifted the dial a few degrees hotter, and hence what might have been mid thirties is likely to near or exceed 40. But 1976 was different for longevity. The hot for the next 48 hours is a plume event, 76 was a very different thing.
Thanks for the egg sucking instructions, but you’re completely missing the point of my post.
But then again perhaps the similarity of your reply to the general gist of those Twitter posts suggests I was wrong and this is just an organic thing rather than anything organised.
Sorry, I wasn’t really replying to your point. I think there are actually a large number of people out there, rather than a concerted campaign. People have very poor weather memories. Most seem to recall it snowing every winter when they were young, when that’s never been the case, depending on where they lived of course. Likewise with hot weather.
Meanwhile Rishi keeps wheeling out the “nation’s credit card” bollox. I’m concerned he actually believes this and plans to run a balanced budget during what might be a fierce economic contraction.
Mordaunt is bland. No idea what she stands for still. Kemi is there to raise her profile so Rishi can appoint her Chancellor I suspect.
TT by a mile the best candidate.
I don’t know what Penny stands for either, but I feel like she understands me and has a solution. (Not really, but she comes over well.) Kemi not coming across so well. Calling herself “brave” sounded like boasting.
Anyway, I’ve caught up with the debate part I missed. Oh, look, Moulin Rouge is on…
I think Labour will be reasonably content with Truss, Sunak or Mordaunt.
They’d probably prefer Truss, but Rishi is offering nothing except the highest taxes in 70 years and is not supported by a large chunk of his own party.
Mordaunt, meanwhile, could surprise on the upside, but chances of her self-destructing seem high.
Are you saying Badenoch would be the best choice for the Tories?
There’s no one candidate who stands out. But I think Badenoch is the only one who potentially offers a break out from what is currently a losing trajectory.
However she has not done enough to get through, so it’s irrelevant now I think.
I was recently watching Stephen Kinnock at a Britain in Changing Europe event. Interesting that he was against any kind of regulatory divergence with the EU. So although Labour's policy is NOT to rejoin the single market and customs union they want us to comply with all the rules anyway. Presumably this is so we can rejoin the SM and CU at some point without too much difficulty.
Before you mock him it isn't clear that the conservative party has much of an idea either. We left because we didn't want to be subjugated to the EU's rules. However we'll happily copy whatever rules they have and may also introduce in future so we can trade easily with them. So we have inflicted a substantial amount of economic pain on ourselves for effectively nothing. We do have control of migration policy now but the response at the moment is to import essential workers from outside of Europe to replace the ones who have gone home to Spain etc. I'm not sure this is what leavers had in mind.
Do we want to chart our own path or not? And I notice there has been almost no talk in the Tory leadership debate about Northern Ireland. I would have thought that with Johnson, the man who flat out lied to them, removed from power it might be slightly easier to resolve the internal border issue. Perhaps we'll just continue with the 'we'll threaten a trade war if you insist on us sticking to the agreement we signed' approach.
Meanwhile Rishi keeps wheeling out the “nation’s credit card” bollox. I’m concerned he actually believes this and plans to run a balanced budget during what might be a fierce economic contraction.
Mordaunt is bland. No idea what she stands for still. Kemi is there to raise her profile so Rishi can appoint her Chancellor I suspect.
TT by a mile the best candidate.
I don’t know what Penny stands for either, but I feel like she understands me and has a solution. (Not really, but she comes over well.) Kemi not coming across so well. Calling herself “brave” sounded like boasting.
Anyway, I’ve caught up with the debate part I missed. Oh, look, Moulin Rouge is on…
"Just then an unconscious former Lib Dem fell through the ceiling"
There are two things about Truss I actually like. I like the fact that our Barty met her and they had a good chat about productivity. That shows she's on top of things, and passionate. The second is the fact that she's acknowledged her presentation isn't the best. That acknowledgement is more than May ever managed.
There's a lot I am not so keen on, but this is a positive post.
Actually think Truss would make a pretry good COTE.
That's a link to the discussion forum. I hope you are not suggesting that there is a danger that contributors to specialised internet discussion boards have a deficient understanding of their subject?
Really just posting for the links in that link to recent models.
Sorry, my mistake.
But to be fair, a forum is even less reliable. You'll be basing predictions on PB.com postings next!
There are two things about Truss I actually like. I like the fact that our Barty met her and they had a good chat about productivity. That shows she's on top of things, and passionate. The second is the fact that she's acknowledged her presentation isn't the best. That acknowledgement is more than May ever managed.
There's a lot I am not so keen on, but this is a positive post.
Actually think Truss would make a pretry good COTE.
So she has the chance to emulate Japan’s deflationary debt spiral, in her opinion the best managed monetary policy in the world?
I was recently watching Stephen Kinnock at a Britain in Changing Europe event. Interesting that he was against any kind of regulatory divergence with the EU. So although Labour's policy is NOT to rejoin the single market and customs union they want us to comply with all the rules anyway. Presumably this is so we can rejoin the SM and CU at some point without too much difficulty.
Before you mock him it isn't clear that the conservative party has much of an idea either. We left because we didn't want to be subjugated to the EU's rules. However we'll happily copy whatever rules they have and may also introduce in future so we can trade easily with them. So we have inflicted a substantial amount of economic pain on ourselves for effectively nothing. We do have control of migration policy now but the response at the moment is to import essential workers from outside of Europe to replace the ones who have gone home to Spain etc. I'm not sure this is what leavers had in mind.
Do we want to chart our own path or not? And I notice there has been almost no talk in the Tory leadership debate about Northern Ireland. I would have thought that with Johnson, the man who flat out lied to them, removed from power it might be slightly easier to resolve the internal border issue. Perhaps we'll just continue with the 'we'll threaten a trade war if you insist on us sticking to the agreement we signed' approach.
Your first paragraph is pretty much what leave voting @RochdalePioneers thinks we should do, and use complete alignment to have much less friction in trade with the eu. Frankly, I think they are right, but presumably there is too much at stake for the incumbent clowns to do this.
I think Labour will be reasonably content with Truss, Sunak or Mordaunt.
They’d probably prefer Truss, but Rishi is offering nothing except the highest taxes in 70 years and is not supported by a large chunk of his own party.
Mordaunt, meanwhile, could surprise on the upside, but chances of her self-destructing seem high.
Are you saying Badenoch would be the best choice for the Tories?
There’s no one candidate who stands out. But I think Badenoch is the only one who potentially offers a break out from what is currently a losing trajectory.
However she has not done enough to get through, so it’s irrelevant now I think.
I watched her do the one on one and phone in on LBC and she was great. She’s really struggled in this stilted format
I was recently watching Stephen Kinnock at a Britain in Changing Europe event. Interesting that he was against any kind of regulatory divergence with the EU. So although Labour's policy is NOT to rejoin the single market and customs union they want us to comply with all the rules anyway. Presumably this is so we can rejoin the SM and CU at some point without too much difficulty.
Before you mock him it isn't clear that the conservative party has much of an idea either. We left because we didn't want to be subjugated to the EU's rules. However we'll happily copy whatever rules they have and may also introduce in future so we can trade easily with them. So we have inflicted a substantial amount of economic pain on ourselves for effectively nothing. We do have control of migration policy now but the response at the moment is to import essential workers from outside of Europe to replace the ones who have gone home to Spain etc. I'm not sure this is what leavers had in mind.
Do we want to chart our own path or not? And I notice there has been almost no talk in the Tory leadership debate about Northern Ireland. I would have thought that with Johnson, the man who flat out lied to them, removed from power it might be slightly easier to resolve the internal border issue. Perhaps we'll just continue with the 'we'll threaten a trade war if you insist on us sticking to the agreement we signed' approach.
Depends on what the divergence is. If we take something like food standards, we diverge for the sake of being different and add a shit ton of costs.
Penny doesn’t really stand for much but she looks good and has a calm manner which is quite comforting . I like her voice and I think world leaders would be somewhat star struck when they meet her .
Not sure what the big deal is on a lack of detail , get a good team and job done .
Perhaps her Bondish Money Penny styling is clouding my judgement !
I like her too - but she's not bright or focused enough to be a good PM imo.
If "Jen" in "The IT Crowd" could be head of the IT Dept without knowing squat about computers, then surely "Penny" of "The BJ Crowd" can be head of the Con Govt.
Indeed, Mordaunt as PM front woman with Sunak as Chancellor, Tugendhat as Foreign Secretary and Davis as Home Secretary would be fine, maybe Truss at Business and Badenoch as Party Chairman.
A lot of the PM role is about setting the right direction and selling your government to the country, Reagan was no intellectual but had a top Cabinet full of heavyweights and a brilliant salesman. Brown was also brighter than Blair but Blair was the better PM, Brown more suited to the detail of Chancellor
You know what HYUFD - this is one of the best posts you have ever written on PB.
I think Labour will be reasonably content with Truss, Sunak or Mordaunt.
They’d probably prefer Truss, but Rishi is offering nothing except the highest taxes in 70 years and is not supported by a large chunk of his own party.
Mordaunt, meanwhile, could surprise on the upside, but chances of her self-destructing seem high.
Are you saying Badenoch would be the best choice for the Tories?
There’s no one candidate who stands out. But I think Badenoch is the only one who potentially offers a break out from what is currently a losing trajectory.
However she has not done enough to get through, so it’s irrelevant now I think.
I watched her do the one on one and phone in on LBC and she was great. She’s really struggled in this stilted format
She didn’t seem to want the job tonight. She’s got a place in the next Cabinet, though, probably as Ed Sec.
Penny doesn’t really stand for much but she looks good and has a calm manner which is quite comforting . I like her voice and I think world leaders would be somewhat star struck when they meet her .
Not sure what the big deal is on a lack of detail , get a good team and job done .
Perhaps her Bondish Money Penny styling is clouding my judgement !
I like her too - but she's not bright or focused enough to be a good PM imo.
If "Jen" in "The IT Crowd" could be head of the IT Dept without knowing squat about computers, then surely "Penny" of "The BJ Crowd" can be head of the Con Govt.
Indeed, Mordaunt as PM front woman with Sunak as Chancellor, Tugendhat as Foreign Secretary and Davis as Home Secretary would be fine, maybe Truss at Business and Badenoch as Party Chairman.
A lot of the PM role is about setting the right direction and selling your government to the country, Reagan was no intellectual but had a top Cabinet full of heavyweights and a brilliant salesman. Brown was also brighter than Blair but Blair was the better PM, Brown more suited to the detail of Chancellor
You know what HYUFD - this is one of the best posts you have ever written on PB.
Indeed, possibly HYUFD's best post that I've ever seen on here. Better and more concisely put than several journalists I read weekly.
I was recently watching Stephen Kinnock at a Britain in Changing Europe event. Interesting that he was against any kind of regulatory divergence with the EU. So although Labour's policy is NOT to rejoin the single market and customs union they want us to comply with all the rules anyway. Presumably this is so we can rejoin the SM and CU at some point without too much difficulty.
Before you mock him it isn't clear that the conservative party has much of an idea either. We left because we didn't want to be subjugated to the EU's rules. However we'll happily copy whatever rules they have and may also introduce in future so we can trade easily with them. So we have inflicted a substantial amount of economic pain on ourselves for effectively nothing. We do have control of migration policy now but the response at the moment is to import essential workers from outside of Europe to replace the ones who have gone home to Spain etc. I'm not sure this is what leavers had in mind.
Do we want to chart our own path or not? And I notice there has been almost no talk in the Tory leadership debate about Northern Ireland. I would have thought that with Johnson, the man who flat out lied to them, removed from power it might be slightly easier to resolve the internal border issue. Perhaps we'll just continue with the 'we'll threaten a trade war if you insist on us sticking to the agreement we signed' approach.
Your first paragraph is pretty much what leave voting @RochdalePioneers thinks we should do, and use complete alignment to have much less friction in trade with the eu. Frankly, I think they are right, but presumably there is too much at stake for the incumbent clowns to do this.
The word friction doesn't get enough consideration. Having voted to quit the EU - the political institution - we alo chose to quit the single market and the customs union. So we now have to compete with a much larger market who subsidises and has cheap labour. If we don't compete our economy is in trouble and we're going to end up beholden to importers having lost our own industry.
So yes, I want frictionless trade. Because anyone who trades wants frictionless trade. A new diverged standard to show that we can that adds masses of cost for little benefit drives us backwards.
I was recently watching Stephen Kinnock at a Britain in Changing Europe event. Interesting that he was against any kind of regulatory divergence with the EU. So although Labour's policy is NOT to rejoin the single market and customs union they want us to comply with all the rules anyway. Presumably this is so we can rejoin the SM and CU at some point without too much difficulty.
Before you mock him it isn't clear that the conservative party has much of an idea either. We left because we didn't want to be subjugated to the EU's rules. However we'll happily copy whatever rules they have and may also introduce in future so we can trade easily with them. So we have inflicted a substantial amount of economic pain on ourselves for effectively nothing. We do have control of migration policy now but the response at the moment is to import essential workers from outside of Europe to replace the ones who have gone home to Spain etc. I'm not sure this is what leavers had in mind.
Do we want to chart our own path or not? And I notice there has been almost no talk in the Tory leadership debate about Northern Ireland. I would have thought that with Johnson, the man who flat out lied to them, removed from power it might be slightly easier to resolve the internal border issue. Perhaps we'll just continue with the 'we'll threaten a trade war if you insist on us sticking to the agreement we signed' approach.
Depends on what the divergence is. If we take something like food standards, we diverge for the sake of being different and add a shit ton of costs.
The government - including all the candidates - are still in the impossible situation of pretending that Brexit is an economic bonanza. An increasing number of people don’t believe that.
The sooner we all agree it is actually economically inconvenient - but was necessary on democratic grounds - the sooner we can go about mitigating what damage there is, and unlocking what opportunities there might be.
A snap Opinium poll of 1,001 people who watched the debate shows Rishi Sunak won, with 24% of those surveyed thinking he performed best, followed by Tom Tugendhat (19%)
I can see Sunak trying to diddle it to ensure that Truss goes out. Not just because he thinks he'll win vs Mordaunt but because I actually think he hates Truss.
I was recently watching Stephen Kinnock at a Britain in Changing Europe event. Interesting that he was against any kind of regulatory divergence with the EU. So although Labour's policy is NOT to rejoin the single market and customs union they want us to comply with all the rules anyway. Presumably this is so we can rejoin the SM and CU at some point without too much difficulty.
Before you mock him it isn't clear that the conservative party has much of an idea either. We left because we didn't want to be subjugated to the EU's rules. However we'll happily copy whatever rules they have and may also introduce in future so we can trade easily with them. So we have inflicted a substantial amount of economic pain on ourselves for effectively nothing. We do have control of migration policy now but the response at the moment is to import essential workers from outside of Europe to replace the ones who have gone home to Spain etc. I'm not sure this is what leavers had in mind.
Do we want to chart our own path or not? And I notice there has been almost no talk in the Tory leadership debate about Northern Ireland. I would have thought that with Johnson, the man who flat out lied to them, removed from power it might be slightly easier to resolve the internal border issue. Perhaps we'll just continue with the 'we'll threaten a trade war if you insist on us sticking to the agreement we signed' approach.
I think Labour will be reasonably content with Truss, Sunak or Mordaunt.
They’d probably prefer Truss, but Rishi is offering nothing except the highest taxes in 70 years and is not supported by a large chunk of his own party.
Mordaunt, meanwhile, could surprise on the upside, but chances of her self-destructing seem high.
I think the truth is that they're all unknown quantities, except partially Sunak. Boris has dominated government to such an extent in his attempt to be a President in a Prime Ministerial system that it's very difficult to see how any of them will perform, no matter how many debates we have.
I can see Sunak trying to diddle it to ensure that Truss goes out. Not just because he thinks he'll win vs Mordaunt but because I actually think he hates Truss.
I don’t think he likes challenge, and Truss is the only one to really do so.
I rather suspect he has marked Kemi down now too for the impertinence of her fraud question.
Why do you think Truss will go up and Badenoch down?
Truss has received endorsements from Braverman and other significant Brexity types, and her performance was punchy and confident, very much framing it as her vs Sunak. I think it will have reassured that wing she is the right candidate and Sunak's lame attempt to derail her as a former LD and remainer will only make them more determined to back her.
Badenoch had a quiet evening, but even without that after the impressive opening rounds I feel like the MPs will have been thinking about her lack of experience over the weekend. I think she and Tugendhat will both suffer as their backers ponder what the point is of continuing to back them when they clearly will not be in the running much longer, so I think some of hers will drift away.
Not sure what the big deal is on a lack of detail , get a good team and job done .
Especially since anyone with any sense knows that almost all of the detail we are getting from any of them is complete nonsense, either never going to happen or the wrong thing to try and do.
I think this is shaping up to be a nightmare for most of us but a dream for Labour.
Mordaunt really seems to have fluffed her lines. Badenoch won’t quite make the cut, so it’s going to end up being a runoff between dull and flawed but fundamentally fairly professional Rishi, and Truss.
The membership will vote for Liz. She will prove to be every big as bad as her predecessor, and surrounded by the same clowns. Meanwhile the economy will get worse as will relations with the EU and the coherence of the Union, The public will think “bigger this for a laugh” and seriously shit on the Tories in 2024.
Out of all the candidates, the one who will generate zero polling bounce or even a new nadir is Truss.
Did all those saying Truss did better watch the same thing as me?! Does no one have anything to say about her praising the Bank of Japan for “keeping inflation low”? What a helmet. All those years round Cabinet and her grasp of economics is frighteningly poor.
Wait.
Who said that the BoJ did a great job keeping inflation low? That's a spectacularly moronic comment.
I was recently watching Stephen Kinnock at a Britain in Changing Europe event. Interesting that he was against any kind of regulatory divergence with the EU. So although Labour's policy is NOT to rejoin the single market and customs union they want us to comply with all the rules anyway. Presumably this is so we can rejoin the SM and CU at some point without too much difficulty.
Before you mock him it isn't clear that the conservative party has much of an idea either. We left because we didn't want to be subjugated to the EU's rules. However we'll happily copy whatever rules they have and may also introduce in future so we can trade easily with them. So we have inflicted a substantial amount of economic pain on ourselves for effectively nothing. We do have control of migration policy now but the response at the moment is to import essential workers from outside of Europe to replace the ones who have gone home to Spain etc. I'm not sure this is what leavers had in mind.
Do we want to chart our own path or not? And I notice there has been almost no talk in the Tory leadership debate about Northern Ireland. I would have thought that with Johnson, the man who flat out lied to them, removed from power it might be slightly easier to resolve the internal border issue. Perhaps we'll just continue with the 'we'll threaten a trade war if you insist on us sticking to the agreement we signed' approach.
I have no problem with regulatory divergence, but it is worth noting that there is likely to be only a very small market for products that don't comply with FCC, UL and CE standards.
There are two things about Truss I actually like. I like the fact that our Barty met her and they had a good chat about productivity. That shows she's on top of things, and passionate. The second is the fact that she's acknowledged her presentation isn't the best. That acknowledgement is more than May ever managed.
There's a lot I am not so keen on, but this is a positive post.
Actually think Truss would make a pretry good COTE.
So she has the chance to emulate Japan’s deflationary debt spiral, in her opinion the best managed monetary policy in the world?
Managing deflation from this starting position would be quite some feat!
There are two things about Truss I actually like. I like the fact that our Barty met her and they had a good chat about productivity. That shows she's on top of things, and passionate. The second is the fact that she's acknowledged her presentation isn't the best. That acknowledgement is more than May ever managed.
There's a lot I am not so keen on, but this is a positive post.
Yes, I thought that did good damage limitation - a bit of humility and allowed her to spin it is "I may not be a brilliaint speaker, but I deliver".
Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about who did well) but he is an ex-MP and so may have a better understanding of how MPs look at these things. I thought his comment about Badenoch was interesting in that she seems to be looking to broaden her appeal and she probably benefits from Friday's Con Home survey. Truss did enough tonight to probably stop the doubts but I don't see why Sunak would pick up so many votes as his performance tonight was pretty much like his performance on Friday.
TT definitely looks out after tonight. The one I would question about is Penny M. I didn't think she was that great and her closing statement was a bit weak. I can see a few of her backers thinking that she will never get over the self-ID when it comes to the membership and, together with not that inspiring a performance, wondering should they switch.
I think the only safe assumption I would make about this race at the moment is that TT will be out tomorrow.
Betfair next prime minister 2.76 Rishi Sunak 36% 2.9 Penny Mordaunt 34% 6.6 Liz Truss 15% 7.6 Kemi Badenoch 13% 95 Tom Tugendhat 130 Dominic Raab
To make the final two 1.09 Rishi Sunak 92% 1.5 Penny Mordaunt 67% 3.05 Liz Truss 33% 5.3 Kemi Badenoch 19% 48 Tom Tugendhat
Next PM 2.58 Rishi Sunak 39% 3.3 Penny Mordaunt 30% 4.7 Liz Truss 21% 8.4 Kemi Badenoch 12% 110 Dominic Raab 110 Tom Tugendhat
Next Con leader 2.58 Rishi Sunak 39% 3.45 Penny Mordaunt 29% 4.8 Liz Truss 21% 8.2 Kemi Badenoch 12% 100 Tom Tugendhat
To make the final two 1.07 Rishi Sunak 93% 1.55 Penny Mordaunt 65% 2.62 Liz Truss 38% 5.8 Kemi Badenoch 17% 90 Tom Tugendhat
ETA we've mentioned this before but it is worth noting there is not enough money in these markets for the bot-writers to link them, so occasionally odd gaps open up.
Pre-debate Betfair.
Next PM 2.54 Rishi Sunak 39% 3.25 Penny Mordaunt 31% 5.7 Liz Truss 18% 8.8 Kemi Badenoch 11% 100 Tom Tugendhat 150 Dominic Raab
Next Con Leader 2.5 Rishi Sunak 40% 3.15 Penny Mordaunt 32% 5.5 Liz Truss 18% 8.6 Kemi Badenoch 12% 110 Tom Tugendhat
To make the final two 1.08 Rishi Sunak 93% 1.66 Penny Mordaunt 60% 2.64 Liz Truss 38% 5.6 Kemi Badenoch 18% 60 Tom Tugendhat
End of debate. Raab's drifted!
Next PM 2.4 Rishi Sunak 42% 3.35 Penny Mordaunt 30% 4.9 Liz Truss 20% 11 Kemi Badenoch 9% 100 Tom Tugendhat 230 Dominic Raab
Next Con Leader 2.4 Rishi Sunak 42% 3.15 Penny Mordaunt 32% 4.9 Liz Truss 20% 12.5 Kemi Badenoch 8% 130 Tom Tugendhat
To make the final two 1.07 Rishi Sunak 93% 1.51 Penny Mordaunt 66% 2.52 Liz Truss 40% 6 Kemi Badenoch 17% 60 Tom Tugendhat
One hour later (or end of debate on +1)
Betfair next prime minister 2.36 Rishi Sunak 42% 3.4 Penny Mordaunt 29% 4.7 Liz Truss 21% 13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7% 140 Tom Tugendhat 220 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader 2.38 Rishi Sunak 42% 3.3 Penny Mordaunt 30% 4.5 Liz Truss 22% 14 Kemi Badenoch 7% 170 Tom Tugendhat
To be in final two 1.06 Rishi Sunak 94% 1.7 Penny Mordaunt 59% 2.46 Liz Truss 41% 10 Kemi Badenoch 10% 100 Tom Tugendhat
Don't know how HYUFD feels, but my sense (certainly talking to folks on Friday in now super marginal Esher and Walton) is that Sunak can beat Truss. His Thatcherite fiscally responsible line will command a (grudging) respect from members.
Not predicting that outcome yet, but the notion that Liz will be the inevitable victor is fanciful.
PS And being on the same side as Dominic Raab is slightly perturbing... but needs must.
Comments
But then again perhaps the similarity of your reply to the general gist of those Twitter posts suggests I was wrong and this is just an organic thing rather than anything organised.
They’d probably prefer Truss, but Rishi is offering nothing except the highest taxes in 70 years and is not supported by a large chunk of his own party.
Mordaunt, meanwhile, could surprise on the upside, but chances of her self-destructing seem high.
Personally I think Penny comes across as very likeable but my concern is that she doesn’t seem to have a clear grasp of the issues and struggles to be incisive. She may be ok leading a collaborative cabinet government if it was fairly new to power but given we are 12 years into Tory government my suspicion is that the Party will start infighting and she won’t be able to stop them, and will go into the next election rudderless and indecisive.
She's basically saying the last government was awesome, but Rishi is terrible because he would continue the policies of that government.
Whereas CHB is clearly a *battery*, not a horse.
A lot of the PM role is about setting the right direction and selling your government to the country, Reagan was no intellectual but had a top Cabinet full of heavyweights and a brilliant salesman. Brown was also brighter than Blair but Blair was the better PM, Brown more suited to the detail of Chancellor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GAbc5uQXJo
https://youtu.be/Vywf48Dhyns
Mordaunt is bland. No idea what she stands for still. Kemi is there to raise her profile so Rishi can appoint her Chancellor I suspect.
TT by a mile the best candidate.
Really just posting for the links in that link to recent models.
There's a lot I am not so keen on, but this is a positive post.
But she’s ridden her ability to project empathy all the way to the top.
So do not write off Penny.
Anyway, I’ve caught up with the debate part I missed. Oh, look, Moulin Rouge is on…
But I think Badenoch is the only one who potentially offers a break out from what is currently a losing trajectory.
However she has not done enough to get through, so it’s irrelevant now I think.
Before you mock him it isn't clear that the conservative party has much of an idea either. We left because we didn't want to be subjugated to the EU's rules. However we'll happily copy whatever rules they have and may also introduce in future so we can trade easily with them. So we have inflicted a substantial amount of economic pain on ourselves for effectively nothing. We do have control of migration policy now but the response at the moment is to import essential workers from outside of Europe to replace the ones who have gone home to Spain etc. I'm not sure this is what leavers had in mind.
Do we want to chart our own path or not? And I notice there has been almost no talk in the Tory leadership debate about Northern Ireland. I would have thought that with Johnson, the man who flat out lied to them, removed from power it might be slightly easier to resolve the internal border issue. Perhaps we'll just continue with the 'we'll threaten a trade war if you insist on us sticking to the agreement we signed' approach.
But to be fair, a forum is even less reliable. You'll be basing predictions on PB.com postings next!
She’s got a place in the next Cabinet, though, probably as Ed Sec.
Sunak - 101
Mordaunt - 83
Truss - 64
Badenoch - 49
Tugendhat - 32
Braverman - 27
Prediction for the next round:
Sunak - 116 (+13)
Mordaunt - 88 (+5)
Truss - 84 (+20)
Badenoch - 45 (-4)
Tugendhat - 25 (-7)
Penny loses the big mo but just retains her place. Badenoch and Tom run out of steam.
Tom then endorses Mordaunt, and she slightly increases her lead over Truss.
Badenoch's support then splits mostly for Truss and some for Sunak, putting Sunak and Truss in the final two by a gnat's whisker.
Prediction for the fourth round:
Sunak - 119 (+6)
Mordaunt - 104 (+16)
Truss - 92 (+8)
Badenoch - 40 (-5)
Prediction for the final round:
Sunak - 133 (+14)
Mordaunt - 110 (+6)
Truss - 112 (+20)
So yes, I want frictionless trade. Because anyone who trades wants frictionless trade. A new diverged standard to show that we can that adds masses of cost for little benefit drives us backwards.
The sooner we all agree it is actually economically inconvenient - but was necessary on democratic grounds - the sooner we can go about mitigating what damage there is, and unlocking what opportunities there might be.
But I think HYUFD is absolutely correct - she is actually the perfect front person for the Conservatives in very difficult economic times.
As long as she appoints the highest quality Cabinet - ie doesn't do a Boris deliberately surrounding himself by rubbish people.
It just might come off.
A snap Opinium poll of 1,001 people who watched the debate shows Rishi Sunak won, with 24% of those surveyed thinking he performed best, followed by Tom Tugendhat (19%)
Penny Mordaunt got 17%, followed by Liz Truss (15%) and Kemi Badenoch (12%) https://t.co/dFXRsPHra8 https://t.co/RTEmBebBE5
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1548757522043002882?s=20&t=rDKXn6JkLROGUE7v-bzBUQ
https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer/status/1548754997692743692
I rather suspect he has marked Kemi down now too for the impertinence of her fraud question.
She didn't. So the last three is now nailed on.
I'm assuming Kemi endorses Liz, but if not then Penny will be a happy bunny.
Badenoch had a quiet evening, but even without that after the impressive opening rounds I feel like the MPs will have been thinking about her lack of experience over the weekend. I think she and Tugendhat will both suffer as their backers ponder what the point is of continuing to back them when they clearly will not be in the running much longer, so I think some of hers will drift away.
NEW THREAD
Mordaunt really seems to have fluffed her lines. Badenoch won’t quite make the cut, so it’s going to end up being a runoff between dull and flawed but fundamentally fairly professional Rishi, and Truss.
The membership will vote for Liz. She will prove to be every big as bad as her predecessor, and surrounded by the same clowns. Meanwhile the economy will get worse as will relations with the EU and the coherence of the Union, The public will think “bigger this for a laugh” and seriously shit on
the Tories in 2024.
Out of all the candidates, the one who will generate zero polling bounce or even a new nadir is Truss.
Who said that the BoJ did a great job keeping inflation low? That's a spectacularly moronic comment.
Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about who did well) but he is an ex-MP and so may have a better understanding of how MPs look at these things. I thought his comment about Badenoch was interesting in that she seems to be looking to broaden her appeal and she probably benefits from Friday's Con Home survey. Truss did enough tonight to probably stop the doubts but I don't see why Sunak would pick up so many votes as his performance tonight was pretty much like his performance on Friday.
TT definitely looks out after tonight. The one I would question about is Penny M. I didn't think she was that great and her closing statement was a bit weak. I can see a few of her backers thinking that she will never get over the self-ID when it comes to the membership and, together with not that inspiring a performance, wondering should they switch.
I think the only safe assumption I would make about this race at the moment is that TT will be out tomorrow.
Betfair next prime minister
2.36 Rishi Sunak 42%
3.4 Penny Mordaunt 29%
4.7 Liz Truss 21%
13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
140 Tom Tugendhat
220 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.38 Rishi Sunak 42%
3.3 Penny Mordaunt 30%
4.5 Liz Truss 22%
14 Kemi Badenoch 7%
170 Tom Tugendhat
To be in final two
1.06 Rishi Sunak 94%
1.7 Penny Mordaunt 59%
2.46 Liz Truss 41%
10 Kemi Badenoch 10%
100 Tom Tugendhat
Not predicting that outcome yet, but the notion that Liz will be the inevitable victor is fanciful.
PS And being on the same side as Dominic Raab is slightly perturbing... but needs must.
Now now, Ms Free. Do not lie.