Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
I think what is happening here is people being cautious reflectors when discussing politics with someone from another country.
If I met a pro Trump American, my language about US politics would be very different to if I met a normal American. Not 180 degrees different, but significantly so, and I feel that is the correct and polite way to talk to a stranger in a casual conversation about politics.
Similarly Brits who really dislike our politics, will get that view echoed when abroad, and Brits who dislike EU politics and think Boris a great statesman will get a very different response.
In reality most foreigners don't care much about UK politics either way.
Yes, that is much closer to the truth. 99.73% of foreign people don't give a fuck about British politics, or indeed know anything about it. And why should they? 78% of BRITS don't really give a fuck, or know much
Most conversations about Britain, abroad (outside our nearest neighbours and the Anglosphere), relate to English football, because they DO know a lot about that; the rest is a mild sense that Britain is an important wealthy country, probably a good place, maybe cold, errr
I've not heard Brexit mentioned once, since about 2017, not even in western Europe - with one exception: a border guard in Switzerland who told some queueing and whingeing Brits, stuck in the Rest of the World line: "Well, you voted for this" - and everyone chuckled, ruefully or otherwise. That's it
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
As someone who is involved in campaigns I am always appalled by crass statements that come out of Government departments when an alleged wrongdoing is published. The statement is normally pointless, not focused on the issue at hand and makes matters worse. I have experienced this so many times with the campaigns I have been involved in. I am sure people like @ydoethur experiences the same when he raises issues and sees the crass replies in response.
The one from the MOD to the alleged SAS activity this morning is appalling. The response is:
'British forces served with courage and professionalism in Afghanistan'
I doubt anyone thinks that is generally untrue but what the hell has it got to do with the allegations this morning. It is crass, it is insensitive and is a reaction without any (further) investigation so also looks very defensive.
That statement is not a reply to the claims being made. By all means say it, but with a bit more added eg we are not aware..., we will investigate these appalling allegations..., etc, etc.
All looks a bit thin. the BBC's main point is the suspicious recurrence of He grabbed a grenade/He grabbed a rifle stories, but what variations on those themes do they expect if you raid armed hostiles late at night? I mean, I am sure DA would confirm the credibility of the claims if he were among us, but unless these guys were exchanging TikToks they are in the clear. Hence the defensive blocking shot from MOD is exactly what I would expect.
I have no idea if it is true or not. I hope it isn't. It might well have been fully investigated. None of that is the point. I am fed up with Govt Departments sending out crass comments. They do it all the time to everything that comes up.
I could rattle of lists.
A part of the MOD statement:
‘Two service police operations carried out extensive and independent investigations into allegations about the conduct of UK forces in Afghanistan.
‘Neither investigation found sufficient evidence to prosecute.
‘The Ministry of Defence stands open to considering any new evidence, there would be no obstruction.’
'No new evidence has been presented, but the Service Police will consider any allegations should new evidence come to light.'
So your claim that the MOD response was limited to one line praising courage and professionalism is plain wrong.
I accept that. I quoted what was quoted and it followed a trend. I apologise if that was inaccurate.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
If this continues, inland Spain and Greece, and possibly southwest France and Sicily/S Italy, will empty out
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday
There are few places taken in the round so pleasant to live than the UK. Provided you have a few quid of course, which is true in most places but especially so here.
Yes, mild climate; 8 months of good weather if you live on the south coast. Plus, seasonal variety.
Eight months of good weather?! Lol
Chacun a son gout I guess
And that “seasonal variety” also means 3 months of dark cold grimness. And no climate change is going to make British winters less dark
I never realised how good the weather is in the south east of the UK until I spent large amounts of time in scandinavia. Their season of good weather is less than half of what we get in the UK. Then they have 8 months of miserable weather. Cold, wind, rain, ice, snow (occasionally beautiful but mostly hazardous when combined with rain), so you can't go out without massive weather protection on, and massive boots, sometimes with spikes.
There are some things that are better there, like fantastic swimming pools, and it feels a lot less crowded with clean air.
But it really hit home when a friend bought a new bike back in April. I kept asking him how it was and he said he wouldn't be able to try it out for months because of all the gravel on the roads, it would just shred the tyres and damage the bike if he went out.
This is not to mention the massive heating bills, and high rates of illness; people are regularly off work for weeks.
We are really lucky in this country.
Temperatures in southern England are pleasant, I agree. Especially as the overall climate warms up
But it is too grey and wet for me, and way too dark in the winter
I crave sunshine. It really affects my mood. I’ve spent the last 3 months in almost perpetual sunshine (because in part I’ve been able to choose where to go, in and around assignments); it has had, I believe, a notable positive influence on my mood (tho one can never be sure)
We are all subject to hedonic adaptation. Even when you arrive at a perfect situation, something will creep in to make you miserable.
That’s very true
I’ve also considered the possibility that I’m in a highly benign mood because I’m constantly moving. Whenever I get bored or sullen I go to the next country. Works a treat
Maybe I simply have a gypsy heart and a hunter gathering soul. Maybe I should wander the earth for the rest of time. Like the proverbial Jew
Tony Kaye called his production company 'The Wandering Jew'.
On the disappointed disengaging because they lurve Boris, is this different by sex? ie Do women retain a greater attachment to Boris than men? And is there a difference between Red Wall women and say those in the London Bubble? And by ethnicity?
I have noticed a couple of minor flounces off Lee Anderson's constituency facebook group due to his withdrawal of support from Boris, but nothing that looks seismic. If that means anything.
Field day in HoC reviewing bojo recent history including lebedev
Establish continuity between bojo and successor
Look as if they are doing something
Ha! You think Tory MPs are capable of embarrassment?
Try again....
Besides, Boris is already on his way out, removed by Tory MPs not Labour ones.
All they're doing by emphasising Boris's personal foibles is showing that the Tories have made a change.
If Labour were serious, they could be leading on Cost of Living etc and saying that the Tories aren't doing enough on xyz but instead they are putting the centre of attention on the one problem they are handling . . .
You may be happy being governed by phoibleboi and lebedev, many of us are not.
I'm sorely tempted to make a trip to Cornwall this weekend, just to find out what worm charming tools people bring..
And what is silver music?
We have a worm charming in our village.
A pair of wooden seagull feet drumming the surface mimics how gulls get worms to come up.
Others use mystery potions, said by some to include Lea and Perrins.....
Seems a poor adaptation by worms that the sound of a seagull on the surface should have them rushing up to investigate. My conclusion is that worms are idiots.
As per normal, because of my poor English I have to correct a misunderstanding of one of my posts yesterday. I seem to need to do this every day. I'm blaming using a phone to post and nothing to do with my incompetence. Sorry for the delay in responding but I'm only just back.
So @dixiedean I wasn't suggesting Comprehensives don't stream. I agree with you and I don't know any that don't. My point was that because they stream and set classes they provide the same benefits of grammars except it is ongoing and not some crude cut off at 11 which also doesn't allow for kids who might be bright in some subjects and rubbish in others and also doesn't allow for kids who might be late starters or who have peaked early.
My experience of this in the early 60s was traumatic and although this wouldn't happen today to this extent, I was excluded from languages and literature and had to do completely inappropriate subjects (practical ones for which I had no talent) because I was a late academic starter (although my maths ability was always there, but as an awkward youngster it wasn't spotted eg I refused to learn times tables as I thought it pointless). My failure to learn a language is something I have always regretted.
@Sandpit you came up with a very interesting idea about doing grammars in reverse. That is selecting the bottom 10%. I find this very interesting. An obvious gut reaction is that it is the same problem, but if done well and with specific resources and one to one focus I think this could be a clever idea.
Bottom 10% is SEND I think and I'd imagine takes up rather more than 10% of the school budget.
One of my son's friends is special needs, and is currently taught in a class of two. Next autumn she starts at a school in Cambridge where she will be in a slightly larger class - and will be getting a taxi to and from it each day, at council expense. She's a lovely lass, but is having trouble learning.
I'm unsure the special needs kids are the main problem. The main problem are the kids who are bright enough to do the work, but for whatever reason - lack of encouragement, disruptive home lives, enjoying footie with friends - don't bother to learn at school and are disruptive. Kids who cannot see the point of school and who bunk off at every opportunity. We need to turn them around.
But how, given their issues are often social or at home?
I think the only major difference any particular government can make for the better (other than funding increases) during a single term has either to be in early years, or the sixth form stages of education. Anything else just take too long to be judged a success or failure before the next government (or sooner yet, the next Education Secretary) comes in with their new set of obsessions they want to impose.
In the case of post 16s, I think we could try more academically focussed large sixth form colleges - non selective, but with a minimum requirement of pass grades in English and maths.
With much larger catchment areas than most comprehensives (sometimes over more than one local authority), they avoid geographical gaming of education by wealthier parents. The large size allows for a more extensive sixth form offer than smaller schools, and the employment of specialists in given subjects. The academic focus selects out the disruptive students by admission. And they give a real chance to the academic slow starters with potential, who would be discarded by selection at age 11.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
For once I am going to call you a twat. Because quite often you are, even though I am sometimes tempted to like you. I was a remainer and I don't hate Britain I love it, and I think if I was silly enough to dox myself I could demonstrate I have done rather more for my country than be a c-list journalist and d-list author. It is the fact that I do love my country that I was not in favour of leave, and particularly not in favour of The Clown. Both have not enhanced our position in the world, they have diminished it. You are an apologist for both. I assume therefore you enjoy having our country be a laughing stock.
Before you start accusing "remainers" of being Britain haters, you might want to look up the huge number of people who publicly supported remain who are genuine patriots, and realise that as you clearly have no real credentials in the field of patriotism you might want to not insult those that do.
Sorry, I fell into a persistent vegetative state after the second sentence
National polls won't tell us much until the new Tory leader is elected. Indeed I could see Sunak or Mordaunt, the top 2 in Tory MPs endorsements so far, get most seats in a hung parliament but the LDs end up kingmaker, forcing them to lead a minority government for a few months or a year until another general election (at which Labour admittedly would be favourites having already deprived the Tories of their majority). To get a majority the Tories would either need to hold most Leave voting redwall seats Boris gained from Labour in 2019 or win back the Remain seats Cameron won in 2015 the Tories lost in 2017 or 2019 to Labour or the LDs.
In terms of next Opposition Leader if Labour then won that general election though the Tories would certainly move right, Badenoch, Patel would all be in the frame, even Rees Mogg might give it a go
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
He wins by being the winner that the others want to support in return for jobs. The consequence of this is that if he falls back into the pack he is in serious trouble. To win he must be seen as the one to beat at all times.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
But you don't go abroad, as you've told us, because you are TOO SCARED OF DRIVING ON THE RIGHT
lol
If you see people laughing, on the vanishingly few times you do go abroad (on a coach tour to Belgium) it is probably because you are a mincing coward who is bewildered by "that there spaghetti" and uses it to lace his shoes
Ah Leon, living proof that travel doesn't broaden the mind. Come on, you can do better than that.
But you told us this. You don't take hols abroad because you are too scared of driving on the right. Like a 12 year old. And yet you also present yourself as some kind of gauge of international opinion, measured on your many adventures abroad
I said that I don't like driving on the right and that that was a factor in deciding where to go on holiday, since it made the experience less relaxing, especially with the extra responsibility that comes with driving my three children. It isn't the only factor and in fact we went on holiday to France and Germany a couple of months ago, I hired a car and it was fine. You yourself said it took you ten years to become comfortable driving on the right, and since your holidays seem to be mostly solo perhaps you are more relaxed about the risks, as I imagine I would be too. In any case for work trips I wouldn't hire a car - for work I only travel to major cities where a car would be a hindrance. I can only tell you the kind of views I encounter, among a fairly narrow albeit influential group of people.
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
Polling (early days! lots can change!) suggests Sunak beats everyone bar Mordaunt, where it is 50/50. Mordaunt needs first MPs and then members to overlook the fact she has almost no experience at the top level.
As someone who is involved in campaigns I am always appalled by crass statements that come out of Government departments when an alleged wrongdoing is published. The statement is normally pointless, not focused on the issue at hand and makes matters worse. I have experienced this so many times with the campaigns I have been involved in. I am sure people like @ydoethur experiences the same when he raises issues and sees the crass replies in response.
The one from the MOD to the alleged SAS activity this morning is appalling. The response is:
'British forces served with courage and professionalism in Afghanistan'
I doubt anyone thinks that is generally untrue but what the hell has it got to do with the allegations this morning. It is crass, it is insensitive and is a reaction without any (further) investigation so also looks very defensive.
That statement is not a reply to the claims being made. By all means say it, but with a bit more added eg we are not aware..., we will investigate these appalling allegations..., etc, etc.
All looks a bit thin. the BBC's main point is the suspicious recurrence of He grabbed a grenade/He grabbed a rifle stories, but what variations on those themes do they expect if you raid armed hostiles late at night? I mean, I am sure DA would confirm the credibility of the claims if he were among us, but unless these guys were exchanging TikToks they are in the clear. Hence the defensive blocking shot from MOD is exactly what I would expect.
I have no idea if it is true or not. I hope it isn't. It might well have been fully investigated. None of that is the point. I am fed up with Govt Departments sending out crass comments. They do it all the time to everything that comes up.
I could rattle of lists.
If their position is it didn't happen it is their duty to come out and say so. If you are not sufficiently robust you risk sounding like It never happened anyway but we definitely won't do it again.
Oh absolutely, but that isn't what I complained about. I complained about making some bland general statement unrelated to the alleged event, although as @Richard_Tyndall has pointed out that has been taken out of context.
Field day in HoC reviewing bojo recent history including lebedev
Establish continuity between bojo and successor
Look as if they are doing something
Ha! You think Tory MPs are capable of embarrassment?
Try again....
Besides, Boris is already on his way out, removed by Tory MPs not Labour ones.
All they're doing by emphasising Boris's personal foibles is showing that the Tories have made a change.
If Labour were serious, they could be leading on Cost of Living etc and saying that the Tories aren't doing enough on xyz but instead they are putting the centre of attention on the one problem they are handling . . .
You may be happy being governed by phoibleboi and lebedev, many of us are not.
I've wanted Boris out for nearly a year now.
He is on his way out.
The Opposition complaining about the PM's personal issues after the PM has already resigned is rather banging on about the stable door after the horse has bolted. Its done already, he's going already, so saying "we think the PM should go" when the government response is "we know, the PM is going" is just weak.
If you want to embarrass the Government there's plenty more that can be discussed instead. Just yesterday eg Ofgem said that the winter fuel price cap is going to be above even the highest estimates previously, the Opposition could be choosing to focus on that knowing that the public will care and divided Tories won't be able to come up with an answer - but no, focus on the problem the Tories are actually dealing with, that will work. 🙄
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
For once I am going to call you a twat. Because quite often you are, even though I am sometimes tempted to like you. I was a remainer and I don't hate Britain I love it, and I think if I was silly enough to dox myself I could demonstrate I have done rather more for my country than be a c-list journalist and d-list author. It is the fact that I do love my country that I was not in favour of leave, and particularly not in favour of The Clown. Both have not enhanced our position in the world, they have diminished it. You are an apologist for both. I assume therefore you enjoy having our country be a laughing stock.
Before you start accusing "remainers" of being Britain haters, you might want to look up the huge number of people who publicly supported remain who are genuine patriots, and realise that as you clearly have no real credentials in the field of patriotism you might want to not insult those that do.
Sorry, I fell into a persistent vegetative state after the second sentence
That is how I felt when I tried reading one of your books.
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
As someone who is involved in campaigns I am always appalled by crass statements that come out of Government departments when an alleged wrongdoing is published. The statement is normally pointless, not focused on the issue at hand and makes matters worse. I have experienced this so many times with the campaigns I have been involved in. I am sure people like @ydoethur experiences the same when he raises issues and sees the crass replies in response.
The one from the MOD to the alleged SAS activity this morning is appalling. The response is:
'British forces served with courage and professionalism in Afghanistan'
I doubt anyone thinks that is generally untrue but what the hell has it got to do with the allegations this morning. It is crass, it is insensitive and is a reaction without any (further) investigation so also looks very defensive.
That statement is not a reply to the claims being made. By all means say it, but with a bit more added eg we are not aware..., we will investigate these appalling allegations..., etc, etc.
All looks a bit thin. the BBC's main point is the suspicious recurrence of He grabbed a grenade/He grabbed a rifle stories, but what variations on those themes do they expect if you raid armed hostiles late at night? I mean, I am sure DA would confirm the credibility of the claims if he were among us, but unless these guys were exchanging TikToks they are in the clear. Hence the defensive blocking shot from MOD is exactly what I would expect.
What could DA see from 3,000 ft up in the air.
It seems unlikely ("he reached behind the sofa for his AK") but not impossible. Generally if you have a squad of SF in your house with their pointy sticks pointing at you you would need balls the size of cannonballs to then play the Shahid card. Not impossible, but house searches (what are the SF doing those for anyway) unless they are to snatch are not that type of operation.
If there were unambiguous deaths in the field then as you say unless they bodycammed it (not impossible you wouldn't believe what some people do) then they will paint it as fog of war/he posed an immediate threat and no one will be the wiser.
Unless they have someone who is going to spill the beans. Do they have that? That would be a game-changer.
Do I think HMF would kill people as described by the BBC? I don't think it is at all out of the question; I never saw such behaviour but then I was the PBI not some handy-dandy special unit.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
For once I am going to call you a twat. Because quite often you are, even though I am sometimes tempted to like you. I was a remainer and I don't hate Britain I love it, and I think if I was silly enough to dox myself I could demonstrate I have done rather more for my country than be a c-list journalist and d-list author. It is the fact that I do love my country that I was not in favour of leave, and particularly not in favour of The Clown. Both have not enhanced our position in the world, they have diminished it. You are an apologist for both. I assume therefore you enjoy having our country be a laughing stock.
Before you start accusing "remainers" of being Britain haters, you might want to look up the huge number of people who publicly supported remain who are genuine patriots, and realise that as you clearly have no real credentials in the field of patriotism you might want to not insult those that do.
Sorry, I fell into a persistent vegetative state after the second sentence
That is how I felt when I tried reading one of your books.
If I wrote books, I'd be flattered. You bought one. Awww
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
We had discussed a bit of work. Not politics. They didn't know me or me them. They started it...
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
As someone who is involved in campaigns I am always appalled by crass statements that come out of Government departments when an alleged wrongdoing is published. The statement is normally pointless, not focused on the issue at hand and makes matters worse. I have experienced this so many times with the campaigns I have been involved in. I am sure people like @ydoethur experiences the same when he raises issues and sees the crass replies in response.
The one from the MOD to the alleged SAS activity this morning is appalling. The response is:
'British forces served with courage and professionalism in Afghanistan'
I doubt anyone thinks that is generally untrue but what the hell has it got to do with the allegations this morning. It is crass, it is insensitive and is a reaction without any (further) investigation so also looks very defensive.
That statement is not a reply to the claims being made. By all means say it, but with a bit more added eg we are not aware..., we will investigate these appalling allegations..., etc, etc.
All looks a bit thin. the BBC's main point is the suspicious recurrence of He grabbed a grenade/He grabbed a rifle stories, but what variations on those themes do they expect if you raid armed hostiles late at night? I mean, I am sure DA would confirm the credibility of the claims if he were among us, but unless these guys were exchanging TikToks they are in the clear. Hence the defensive blocking shot from MOD is exactly what I would expect.
These were reportedly prisoners who 'grabbed' rifles/grenades. Repeated occurrences of that is not particularly believable, given that they would have been restrained (tie wrapped hands, etc). The story is also about the serial prevention of proper investigations into these incidents.
We'll have to wait for the details to assess how credible the allegations are, but it does not sound like something to be brushed off so lightly.
And Topping might have rather more idea about it than DA.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
Yes, and that is why conversations online are often so furious and do not reflect those in real life; and why having conversations only online is so bad for mental health. And that explains the general weirdness of the last twelve years and the particular weirdness during lockdown.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
But you don't go abroad, as you've told us, because you are TOO SCARED OF DRIVING ON THE RIGHT
lol
If you see people laughing, on the vanishingly few times you do go abroad (on a coach tour to Belgium) it is probably because you are a mincing coward who is bewildered by "that there spaghetti" and uses it to lace his shoes
Ah Leon, living proof that travel doesn't broaden the mind. Come on, you can do better than that.
But you told us this. You don't take hols abroad because you are too scared of driving on the right. Like a 12 year old. And yet you also present yourself as some kind of gauge of international opinion, measured on your many adventures abroad
I said that I don't like driving on the right and that that was a factor in deciding where to go on holiday, since it made the experience less relaxing, especially with the extra responsibility that comes with driving my three children. It isn't the only factor and in fact we went on holiday to France and Germany a couple of months ago, I hired a car and it was fine. You yourself said it took you ten years to become comfortable driving on the right, and since your holidays seem to be mostly solo perhaps you are more relaxed about the risks, as I imagine I would be too. In any case for work trips I wouldn't hire a car - for work I only travel to major cities where a car would be a hindrance. I can only tell you the kind of views I encounter, among a fairly narrow albeit influential group of people.
There's no getting round it. You can't cope, mentally. with "driving on the right", and it makes you scared
I think we can dismiss all your opinions on higher order matters, until you can work out which hand holds the fork
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
I think what is happening here is people being cautious reflectors when discussing politics with someone from another country.
If I met a pro Trump American, my language about US politics would be very different to if I met a normal American. Not 180 degrees different, but significantly so, and I feel that is the correct and polite way to talk to a stranger in a casual conversation about politics.
Similarly Brits who really dislike our politics, will get that view echoed when abroad, and Brits who dislike EU politics and think Boris a great statesman will get a very different response.
In reality most foreigners don't care much about UK politics either way.
Yes, that is much closer to the truth. 99.73% of foreign people don't give a fuck about British politics, or indeed know anything about it. And why should they? 78% of BRITS don't really give a fuck, or know much
Most conversations about Britain, abroad (outside our nearest neighbours and the Anglosphere), relate to English football, because they DO know a lot about that; the rest is a mild sense that Britain is an important wealthy country, probably a good place, maybe cold, errr
I've not heard Brexit mentioned once, since about 2017, not even in western Europe - with one exception: a border guard in Switzerland who told some queueing and whingeing Brits, stuck in the Rest of the World line: "Well, you voted for this" - and everyone chuckled, ruefully or otherwise. That's it
Most western people don't care much about foreign politics, except American politics as the US is still the sole western superpower and who it elects as President affects us all
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
You think I want to sit in a car being driven at exciting speeds down an *interesting* road having just arrived on a make or break business trip to a country I've never been to before and start a conversation about Boris Johnson? With the nephew of the owner of the client's business driving?
You're letting your own "Britain-hating" (well, certain kinds of Briton) prejudices make judgements of events you haven't witnessed to self-reassure your own cock-sure prejudices.
NEW: Tory MPs get their first chance to quiz leadership candidates who make it through first round of turbocharged contest at 1922 hustings tomorrow afternoon. First round votes 1.30-3.30pm. Event just announced by Sir Graham Brady at 5pm.
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
Polling (early days! lots can change!) suggests Sunak beats everyone bar Mordaunt, where it is 50/50. Mordaunt needs first MPs and then members to overlook the fact she has almost no experience at the top level.
Sunak is likely to be too risky for many MPs / members I suspect. He has Osborne written all over him - smug, conceited, question marks over his dealings and an overconfidence in his abilities (although probably more justified than for GO). Plus condescending.
As someone who is involved in campaigns I am always appalled by crass statements that come out of Government departments when an alleged wrongdoing is published. The statement is normally pointless, not focused on the issue at hand and makes matters worse. I have experienced this so many times with the campaigns I have been involved in. I am sure people like @ydoethur experiences the same when he raises issues and sees the crass replies in response.
The one from the MOD to the alleged SAS activity this morning is appalling. The response is:
'British forces served with courage and professionalism in Afghanistan'
I doubt anyone thinks that is generally untrue but what the hell has it got to do with the allegations this morning. It is crass, it is insensitive and is a reaction without any (further) investigation so also looks very defensive.
That statement is not a reply to the claims being made. By all means say it, but with a bit more added eg we are not aware..., we will investigate these appalling allegations..., etc, etc.
It is neither crass nor insensitive and moreover you are misquoting. What you quote is part of a much larger rebuttal including the fact there have been formal investigations into the claims which were found to be groundless. The MOD has very strongly contested the BBC claims and made it clear they are not factually accurate.
But you carry on with your selective quoting if it makes you feel better
I did not selectively quote. Others might have done so and I have picked that up. My quote is complete and in full from the BBC.
Apologies if that is not accurate, but that is what people will see.
I think you know me better than that Richard and I am a bit disappointed with that reply to me as I think you are aware that we are both on the same page on most things.
It is a bug bear of mine and I am used to this sort of crap from Govt departments (and apologies if this is not the case this time, but that is what is being quoted). Interestingly I have correspondence from one minister (who I knew personally) who sent me a letter on one campaign I am involved in with this sort of rubbish and hand written note underneath which basically said sorry I have to send this crap out.
You may be right on this in general but in this case specifically the rebuttal was clear and strong. Two separate RMP investigations both of which found no case to answer. Moreover, given it was the BBC who are making these claims and have the most reason to want to push their story, it seems strange to rely solely upon them for your quote. All the more so when it is so clearly one sided and selective.
My apologies if it was and I am glad to hear it. I had no idea who was making the claims I am just seeing the Govt quote and thinking 'Here we go again'.
For the record I don't think this is political having done FOI requests on this sort of stuff it is clearly civil service generated who want to prevent investigations probably motivated by the time it then takes them. They want to do the minimum of work. Some FOI requests are very illuminating:
a) Most ministers send out the draft prepared for them unaltered and usually unquestioned (the draft and ministers questions about the draft are there to be seen in the FOIs)
b) The civil servants are not adverse to lying or exaggerating spectacularly.
I will give you one of many examples I could give and I have quite a few. Having cocked up badly in a reply, I had a conversation with the Head of Communications of a Govt Dept, which I will not name. As it happened the group of people I was representing were all highly qualified scientists (All had doctorates and there were a number of professors in the group). The Head of Communications commented that he should have been more careful in the replies bearing in mind who they were dealing with. To which my reaction was so it is ok to mislead say dustmen but you needed to be more careful with us because you might get caught out telling fibs then. I was not impressed with his approach to ethics.
My apologies but I have seen too much of this sort of crap and in genuine cases (I'm not saying this is one, I have no idea) it delays justice often for decades.
To give you another about this sort of stuff a minister made the statement on something that I won't go into here that 'A full detailed independent review had been carried out'. This is a classic statement by ministers when a news story breaks. Just ignore the content of the allegation and come out with a brief, nothing to see here comment. The FOI showed the statement was prepared by the civil service for him and again he didn't question the briefing. Again unfortunately for them we had a full FOI of the events that showed it wasn't true.
As you can probably guess like @ydoethur I am not a fan of the civil service.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
Yes, and that is why conversations online are often so furious and do not reflect those in real life; and why having conversations only online is so bad for mental health. And that explains the general weirdness of the last twelve years and the particular weirdness during lockdown.
His other technique of course is the old betting scam one - forecast a series of, say five events and to tell 100 people 20 different outcomes each time. There will be some people who he will have told the right answer to at each stage.
I, for example, am on 12 political betting sites and have categorically told each one a different sure fire thing for next Cons leader. I will be a hero on one of those sites.
On PB, as an illustration, I have been saying it will be Mordaunt.
As per normal, because of my poor English I have to correct a misunderstanding of one of my posts yesterday. I seem to need to do this every day. I'm blaming using a phone to post and nothing to do with my incompetence. Sorry for the delay in responding but I'm only just back.
So @dixiedean I wasn't suggesting Comprehensives don't stream. I agree with you and I don't know any that don't. My point was that because they stream and set classes they provide the same benefits of grammars except it is ongoing and not some crude cut off at 11 which also doesn't allow for kids who might be bright in some subjects and rubbish in others and also doesn't allow for kids who might be late starters or who have peaked early.
My experience of this in the early 60s was traumatic and although this wouldn't happen today to this extent, I was excluded from languages and literature and had to do completely inappropriate subjects (practical ones for which I had no talent) because I was a late academic starter (although my maths ability was always there, but as an awkward youngster it wasn't spotted eg I refused to learn times tables as I thought it pointless). My failure to learn a language is something I have always regretted.
@Sandpit you came up with a very interesting idea about doing grammars in reverse. That is selecting the bottom 10%. I find this very interesting. An obvious gut reaction is that it is the same problem, but if done well and with specific resources and one to one focus I think this could be a clever idea.
Bottom 10% is SEND I think and I'd imagine takes up rather more than 10% of the school budget.
One problem with that is that Councils fight tooth, nail and paperwork to make it difficult. Presumably for mainly money reasons. I don't know whether that is better or worse than other country systems, but I expect that any commentary from almost anyone will be very heavily biased by personal opinion.
I have a relative with 2x SEND children, with relevant diagnoses. For one she went through the system and ended up spending £10s of thousands on reviews each of which needed a specialist lawyer to be in attendance, and on special reports (£1-2k for some of those), hundreds of hours on meetings and prep, and independent tutors etc.
The other she said "f*ck this for a game of soldiers" and just helped the child via her own means.
One graduated with a Business degree from Brighton and is now working in London; the other one is having GCSE results this summer, and plans to be a Doctor.
At school we were streamed for some subjects (not for English, Drama, Art, for example), but basically everyone wanted to learn. There was some movement between streams.
Who knows. We rarely get the metal of a politician before they are given power. The obvious exceptions are the ones who should never be allowed near power - Johnson, Trump, Patel, Raab etc. But for the rest you really can't say who will up their game until they are actually in the hot seat.
But in one way it doesn't matter. I am not interested in who will be the best person to win the next election. I am interested in who will be the best person to deal with the crisis of the next 2 years and do the right things even if it costs them the next election.
Only thing is, you're likely to have the same issue, don't you think? I can't see the new leader, faced with the oncoming crisis, NOT calling a General Election in November straight after the Tory conference. They probably won't get a better shot before their promises unravel. So the question of who will win an election becomes immediately relevant.
Interesting comment, Nick, and contrary to the received wisdom. I see your point, but it does all depend on (a) will the new leader have the cojones to risk going down in history as a PM who lasted just a few weeks through miscalculation? and (b) will there be a big enough new-leader bounce to encourage him or her to take that risk?
I'm sceptical on both counts. On (b), I think the fissures within the party and the fact that none of the candidates is particularly appealing, strong on policy, or charismatic will mean any bounce is minimal, and on (a) the natural tendency will be for the new leader to think they are capable of turning things round. Plus there is always 'we have s big majority, we don't need to go to the country, and even if things look dire, maybe something will turn up in the next two years to shift the position in our favour'
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
Sunak beats Mordaunt and Truss in an Opinium Tory members poll but each by less than 10%, so would still be the closest members vote for the Tory leadership yet.
Sunak wins by overwhelmingly winning the minority of Tory members who were Remainers in 2016, even though Mordaunt and Truss both narrowly win Tory members who voted Leave
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
Polling (early days! lots can change!) suggests Sunak beats everyone bar Mordaunt, where it is 50/50. Mordaunt needs first MPs and then members to overlook the fact she has almost no experience at the top level.
You are absolutely right that we should not write off Rishi yet. Whilst he is nowhere near the runaway favourite as he would have been if this were happening last year, he has a good chance of winning the MP vote and I think there will be a good chunk of the membership who will give him a vote because of the experience he holds and his name recognition.
Personally I suspect he has the worst chance against Penny. At least she has held a cabinet role if experience starts being raised (however briefly). I could see it going either way against Liz, but I think I would be tempted to have him as slight favourite. Up against Kemi, despite her growing popularity he could edge it on the basis that she has not held a cabinet post and the media will regularly remind us of that fact.
Basically he has a path to leader, I think it is incorrect to suggest that he’s got no chance with the membership.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
But you don't go abroad, as you've told us, because you are TOO SCARED OF DRIVING ON THE RIGHT
lol
If you see people laughing, on the vanishingly few times you do go abroad (on a coach tour to Belgium) it is probably because you are a mincing coward who is bewildered by "that there spaghetti" and uses it to lace his shoes
Ah Leon, living proof that travel doesn't broaden the mind. Come on, you can do better than that.
But you told us this. You don't take hols abroad because you are too scared of driving on the right. Like a 12 year old. And yet you also present yourself as some kind of gauge of international opinion, measured on your many adventures abroad
I said that I don't like driving on the right and that that was a factor in deciding where to go on holiday, since it made the experience less relaxing, especially with the extra responsibility that comes with driving my three children. It isn't the only factor and in fact we went on holiday to France and Germany a couple of months ago, I hired a car and it was fine. You yourself said it took you ten years to become comfortable driving on the right, and since your holidays seem to be mostly solo perhaps you are more relaxed about the risks, as I imagine I would be too. In any case for work trips I wouldn't hire a car - for work I only travel to major cities where a car would be a hindrance. I can only tell you the kind of views I encounter, among a fairly narrow albeit influential group of people.
There's no getting round it. You can't cope, mentally. with "driving on the right", and it makes you scared
I think we can dismiss all your opinions on higher order matters, until you can work out which hand holds the fork
That's some crazy punctuation. It's a bit early in the day for this kind of contribution isn't it?
As someone who is involved in campaigns I am always appalled by crass statements that come out of Government departments when an alleged wrongdoing is published. The statement is normally pointless, not focused on the issue at hand and makes matters worse. I have experienced this so many times with the campaigns I have been involved in. I am sure people like @ydoethur experiences the same when he raises issues and sees the crass replies in response.
The one from the MOD to the alleged SAS activity this morning is appalling. The response is:
'British forces served with courage and professionalism in Afghanistan'
I doubt anyone thinks that is generally untrue but what the hell has it got to do with the allegations this morning. It is crass, it is insensitive and is a reaction without any (further) investigation so also looks very defensive.
That statement is not a reply to the claims being made. By all means say it, but with a bit more added eg we are not aware..., we will investigate these appalling allegations..., etc, etc.
All looks a bit thin. the BBC's main point is the suspicious recurrence of He grabbed a grenade/He grabbed a rifle stories, but what variations on those themes do they expect if you raid armed hostiles late at night? I mean, I am sure DA would confirm the credibility of the claims if he were among us, but unless these guys were exchanging TikToks they are in the clear. Hence the defensive blocking shot from MOD is exactly what I would expect.
These were reportedly prisoners who 'grabbed' rifles/grenades. Repeated occurrences of that is not particularly believable, given that they would have been restrained (tie wrapped hands, etc). The story is also about the serial prevention of proper investigations into these incidents.
We'll have to wait for the details to assess how credible the allegations are, but it does not sound like something to be brushed off so lightly.
And Topping might have rather more idea about it than DA.
If they get a whistleblower or somone cracks we will know otherwise I'm not sure how they get to the truth.
As you note, which I mentioned upthread, having a series of prisoners all of a sudden reach down the back of the sofa for a weapon I find very challenging to believe.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
For once I am going to call you a twat. Because quite often you are, even though I am sometimes tempted to like you. I was a remainer and I don't hate Britain I love it, and I think if I was silly enough to dox myself I could demonstrate I have done rather more for my country than be a c-list journalist and d-list author. It is the fact that I do love my country that I was not in favour of leave, and particularly not in favour of The Clown. Both have not enhanced our position in the world, they have diminished it. You are an apologist for both. I assume therefore you enjoy having our country be a laughing stock.
Before you start accusing "remainers" of being Britain haters, you might want to look up the huge number of people who publicly supported remain who are genuine patriots, and realise that as you clearly have no real credentials in the field of patriotism you might want to not insult those that do.
Sorry, I fell into a persistent vegetative state after the second sentence
That is how I felt when I tried reading one of your books.
If I wrote books, I'd be flattered. You bought one. Awww
Not your strongest response old chap! I didn't mean it about that c-list/d-list thing by the way. That was a bit harsh, so I apologise. You should quit the remainer obsession though, and being a Johnson apologist is a bit of a minority sport; it might be better to confess your grief.
She’s the leadership candidate everyone’s talking about
@KemiBadenoch writes for @TheSun 🔥 Slams unis spending more time “indoctrinating” than teaching 🔥 Slash cash to low quality degrees 🔥Make it easier to become a nurse or copper
I'm sorely tempted to make a trip to Cornwall this weekend, just to find out what worm charming tools people bring..
And what is silver music?
We have a worm charming in our village.
A pair of wooden seagull feet drumming the surface mimics how gulls get worms to come up.
Others use mystery potions, said by some to include Lea and Perrins.....
Seems a poor adaptation by worms that the sound of a seagull on the surface should have them rushing up to investigate. My conclusion is that worms are idiots.
Isn't it more that they thinks its rain? The seagulls are mimicing that.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
Yes, and that is why conversations online are often so furious and do not reflect those in real life; and why having conversations only online is so bad for mental health. And that explains the general weirdness of the last twelve years and the particular weirdness during lockdown.
His other technique of course is the old betting scam one - forecast a series of, say five events and to tell 100 people 20 different outcomes each time. There will be some people who he will have told the right answer to at each stage.
I, for example, am on 12 political betting sites and have categorically told each one a different sure fire thing for next Cons leader. I will be a hero on one of those sites.
On PB, as an illustration, I have been saying it will be Mordaunt.
Easier just to use Leon's approach and have twelve different identities on one site?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 18m Becoming increasingly apparent that if the Tory right want to stop Rishi, they're going to have to unite behind Liz Truss.
Partly, it was a bullet they fired hoping it would push the Tories into evicting the liar clown pronto, which didn't work and they are now stuck with.
Partly, the intention is to get every Tory MP's fingerprints - including the future leader and cabinet - on the decision to keep the liar clown in office through the summer. For Labour a lot rests on trying to spread the muck from the Johnson era over the lot of them, rather than allowing them another fake fresh start.
There are a couple of candidates who would be a fresh start. Most though have backed every single decision that has been made Enthusiastically.
The one to watch on that front is Sunak. We already know that a war of wills broke out between Sunak and Johnson over spending and taxation. Both are blaming the other. What I expect is that not only will Sunak blame Johnson, he will produce the evidence to prove it.
The problem this causes for the other cabinet-level candidates is simple: they are/will attack Sunak because he is the lead contender. But in doing so they will inadvertently hitch themselves to Johnsonomics.
A question for Tory posters - especially some of the newer / lurker ones: is the desire for "we're Tories, lets cut taxes" big enough to override basic fiscal conservatism? The country cannot afford most of what most of the candidates are promising and they will likely be forced to scrap most of these should they become PM. Does that matter? Or is it biggest fairy story wins the contest?
I am very uneasy with the race to see who can cut taxes the most and quickest
It is therefore incumbent on responsible conservatives to endorse Sunak's approach but I am content with Mordaunt as she is only suggesting cuts in fuel duty, but more importantly is a fresh face and one that could change the narrative for the party
You'll be "content" with whoever comes on top at the end.
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
Err He's beating both Truss and Mordaunt amongst Tory members (According to Opinium), and is ahead on MP nominations ?
There's this meme out there that Tory members are more nuts than Tory MPs and will back someone whacky.
If anything, it's the other way round.
[That said, I take that Ominum poll with a very large pinch of salt. The sample is small, it will be very hard to take a representative one anyway, & the MoE huge.]
NEW: Tory MPs get their first chance to quiz leadership candidates who make it through first round of turbocharged contest at 1922 hustings tomorrow afternoon. First round votes 1.30-3.30pm. Event just announced by Sir Graham Brady at 5pm.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
I think what is happening here is people being cautious reflectors when discussing politics with someone from another country.
If I met a pro Trump American, my language about US politics would be very different to if I met a normal American. Not 180 degrees different, but significantly so, and I feel that is the correct and polite way to talk to a stranger in a casual conversation about politics.
Similarly Brits who really dislike our politics, will get that view echoed when abroad, and Brits who dislike EU politics and think Boris a great statesman will get a very different response.
In reality most foreigners don't care much about UK politics either way.
Yes, that is much closer to the truth. 99.73% of foreign people don't give a fuck about British politics, or indeed know anything about it. And why should they? 78% of BRITS don't really give a fuck, or know much
Most conversations about Britain, abroad (outside our nearest neighbours and the Anglosphere), relate to English football, because they DO know a lot about that; the rest is a mild sense that Britain is an important wealthy country, probably a good place, maybe cold, errr
I've not heard Brexit mentioned once, since about 2017, not even in western Europe - with one exception: a border guard in Switzerland who told some queueing and whingeing Brits, stuck in the Rest of the World line: "Well, you voted for this" - and everyone chuckled, ruefully or otherwise. That's it
Most western people don't care much about foreign politics, except American politics as the US is still the sole western superpower and who it elects as President affects us all
The ONLY time I can remember getting into a passionate debate abroad, about British politics - certainly in, say, the last decade - was in Spain when some Spaniards really wanted to talk about Scottish independence. Why? Because they were deeply concerned about Catalan independence, and they wanted to work out how it might pan out, the virtues of granting a vote, how to stop Catalan indy, etc
That speaks a truth. Foreigners don't give a fuck about British politics EXCEPT where it might impinge them. If you meet europhile financial-political types in Europe yes they might be antiBrexit - because they hate Brexit. Indians might talk about British immigration policy. I imagine Ukrainians will be pro-Boris, etc
Americans talk about British royalty, because they yearn for it
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
I recently re-read Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising (an early book he co-wrote before he turned into a hard right asshole). One of the repeat themes they draw out of their WWIII scenario is that the Soviets have shit supply logistics and keep leaving munitions and fuel in easy to get at places. Because the war plan can't be altered.
Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar · 13m NEW: Tory MPs get their first chance to quiz leadership candidates who make it through first round of turbocharged contest at 1922 hustings tomorrow afternoon. First round votes 1.30-3.30pm. Event just announced by Sir Graham Brady at 5pm.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
But you don't go abroad, as you've told us, because you are TOO SCARED OF DRIVING ON THE RIGHT
lol
If you see people laughing, on the vanishingly few times you do go abroad (on a coach tour to Belgium) it is probably because you are a mincing coward who is bewildered by "that there spaghetti" and uses it to lace his shoes
Ah Leon, living proof that travel doesn't broaden the mind. Come on, you can do better than that.
But you told us this. You don't take hols abroad because you are too scared of driving on the right. Like a 12 year old. And yet you also present yourself as some kind of gauge of international opinion, measured on your many adventures abroad
I said that I don't like driving on the right and that that was a factor in deciding where to go on holiday, since it made the experience less relaxing, especially with the extra responsibility that comes with driving my three children. It isn't the only factor and in fact we went on holiday to France and Germany a couple of months ago, I hired a car and it was fine. You yourself said it took you ten years to become comfortable driving on the right, and since your holidays seem to be mostly solo perhaps you are more relaxed about the risks, as I imagine I would be too. In any case for work trips I wouldn't hire a car - for work I only travel to major cities where a car would be a hindrance. I can only tell you the kind of views I encounter, among a fairly narrow albeit influential group of people.
Do you drive an automatic, OLB? I was reflecting on this the other day. The only skill I have is driving. This is the only area I can think of in which I can do physically complex things without having to engage my brain. In particular, I was marvelling that I can change gear without noticing I'm doing so: some part of my brain registers engine noise and responsiveness of the car, and sends messages to both legs and one hand to do some quite complex things while my other hand continues to do something else all without me having to rationalise any of it. It is bizarre. I perhaps once also had the skill to play rugby, though I think that is less complex. And people who are musical are able to do really quite amazing things without having to think about it. When I drive abroad it ought to be hard to reverse all this, but somehow it isn't. The only time I risk getting into any bother is turning left onto a minor road when there is absolutely no traffic about. I claim no degree of specialness about this, because many - most? - people can do it. I'm certainly not trying to say I'm brilliant at driving, and it's not a skill that has come about through any extraordinary effort. That doesn't make it any less remarkable. But I think some people have to continue to think about what they are doing, and have to re-think driving abroad, which makes it challenging. Often these people also have to think about gear selection. My wife finds driving an automatic far easier for this reason, whereas I almost consciously don't notice.
Ooh, it also occurs to me I can type. That's weird too. That's taken much longer to master.
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
Sunak beats Mordaunt and Truss in an Opinium Tory members poll but each by less than 10%, so would still be the closest members vote for the Tory leadership yet.
Sunak wins by overwhelmingly winning the minority of Tory members who were Remainers in 2016, even though Mordaunt and Truss both narrowly win Tory members who voted Leave
Interesting, I would have expected him to be losing. Still think those numbers suggest he is behind probability wise given his greater name recognition and the large number of don't knows.
Personally think he is one of the better candidates but realistically he has a load of negs. Tainted with Boris, FPN, out of line with MPs on tax, non dom, too rich. In summary, simply too short.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
On one condition, though: that you film yourself listening to it and post that on PB.
Derren Brown is at heart a magician. Its all deceit. He says 'I don't use stooges'. Of course says that. Paul Daniels was capable of making things vanish etc.
I recall Derren using the wisdom of crowds to 'predict' the national lottery results, but he was only able to show his prediction after the event. Other magicians had many ways that they could have performed the trick.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
This is true. I do this with work colleagues, even when I know they're wrong at times, or change the subject or tell a joke because it doesn't do your relationship any good to be argumentative and win on points.
Who knows. We rarely get the metal of a politician before they are given power. The obvious exceptions are the ones who should never be allowed near power - Johnson, Trump, Patel, Raab etc. But for the rest you really can't say who will up their game until they are actually in the hot seat.
But in one way it doesn't matter. I am not interested in who will be the best person to win the next election. I am interested in who will be the best person to deal with the crisis of the next 2 years and do the right things even if it costs them the next election.
Only thing is, you're likely to have the same issue, don't you think? I can't see the new leader, faced with the oncoming crisis, NOT calling a General Election in November straight after the Tory conference. They probably won't get a better shot before their promises unravel. So the question of who will win an election becomes immediately relevant.
Interesting comment, Nick, and contrary to the received wisdom. I see your point, but it does all depend on (a) will the new leader have the cojones to risk going down in history as a PM who lasted just a few weeks through miscalculation? and (b) will there be a big enough new-leader bounce to encourage him or her to take that risk?
I'm sceptical on both counts. On (b), I think the fissures within the party and the fact that none of the candidates is particularly appealing, strong on policy, or charismatic will mean any bounce is minimal, and on (a) the natural tendency will be for the new leader to think they are capable of turning things round. Plus there is always 'we have s big majority, we don't need to go to the country, and even if things look dire, maybe something will turn up in the next two years to shift the position in our favour'
I can't see the Conservatives having an election until they absolutely have to. Friday 24th January 2025 most likely election date now methinks.
As someone who is involved in campaigns I am always appalled by crass statements that come out of Government departments when an alleged wrongdoing is published. The statement is normally pointless, not focused on the issue at hand and makes matters worse. I have experienced this so many times with the campaigns I have been involved in. I am sure people like @ydoethur experiences the same when he raises issues and sees the crass replies in response.
The one from the MOD to the alleged SAS activity this morning is appalling. The response is:
'British forces served with courage and professionalism in Afghanistan'
I doubt anyone thinks that is generally untrue but what the hell has it got to do with the allegations this morning. It is crass, it is insensitive and is a reaction without any (further) investigation so also looks very defensive.
That statement is not a reply to the claims being made. By all means say it, but with a bit more added eg we are not aware..., we will investigate these appalling allegations..., etc, etc.
It is neither crass nor insensitive and moreover you are misquoting. What you quote is part of a much larger rebuttal including the fact there have been formal investigations into the claims which were found to be groundless. The MOD has very strongly contested the BBC claims and made it clear they are not factually accurate.
But you carry on with your selective quoting if it makes you feel better
I did not selectively quote. Others might have done so and I have picked that up. My quote is complete and in full from the BBC.
Apologies if that is not accurate, but that is what people will see.
I think you know me better than that Richard and I am a bit disappointed with that reply to me as I think you are aware that we are both on the same page on most things.
It is a bug bear of mine and I am used to this sort of crap from Govt departments (and apologies if this is not the case this time, but that is what is being quoted). Interestingly I have correspondence from one minister (who I knew personally) who sent me a letter on one campaign I am involved in with this sort of rubbish and hand written note underneath which basically said sorry I have to send this crap out.
You may be right on this in general but in this case specifically the rebuttal was clear and strong. Two separate RMP investigations both of which found no case to answer. Moreover, given it was the BBC who are making these claims and have the most reason to want to push their story, it seems strange to rely solely upon them for your quote. All the more so when it is so clearly one sided and selective.
The BBC alleges that the investigation were deliberately perfunctory, FWIW.
If this bit is accurate, it is certainly cause for concern. ..."Too many people were being killed on night raids and the explanations didn't make sense," he said. "Once somebody is detained, they shouldn't end up dead. For it to happen over and over again was causing alarm at HQ. It was clear at the time that something was wrong." Internal emails from the time show that officers reacted with disbelief to the reports, describing them as "quite incredible" and referring to the squadron's "latest massacre". An operations officer emailed a colleague to say that "for what must be the 10th time in the last two weeks" the squadron had sent a detainee back into a building "and he reappeared with an AK"...
It makes little sense that a highly professional organisation would make repeated errors of this nature, which were apparently widely discussed.
NEW: Tory MPs get their first chance to quiz leadership candidates who make it through first round of turbocharged contest at 1922 hustings tomorrow afternoon. First round votes 1.30-3.30pm. Event just announced by Sir Graham Brady at 5pm.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
For once I am going to call you a twat. Because quite often you are, even though I am sometimes tempted to like you. I was a remainer and I don't hate Britain I love it, and I think if I was silly enough to dox myself I could demonstrate I have done rather more for my country than be a c-list journalist and d-list author. It is the fact that I do love my country that I was not in favour of leave, and particularly not in favour of The Clown. Both have not enhanced our position in the world, they have diminished it. You are an apologist for both. I assume therefore you enjoy having our country be a laughing stock.
Before you start accusing "remainers" of being Britain haters, you might want to look up the huge number of people who publicly supported remain who are genuine patriots, and realise that as you clearly have no real credentials in the field of patriotism you might want to not insult those that do.
Sorry, I fell into a persistent vegetative state after the second sentence
That is how I felt when I tried reading one of your books.
If I wrote books, I'd be flattered. You bought one. Awww
Not your strongest response old chap! I didn't mean it about that c-list/d-list thing by the way. That was a bit harsh, so I apologise. You should quit the remainer obsession though, and being a Johnson apologist is a bit of a minority sport; it might be better to confess your grief.
Dear Old Nigel, I think we have reached a stage where we mutually tolerate each other, don't we? We're like the aged aunts in Cider With Rosie, who spend decades feuding, and then it simmers down into a kind of warped affection
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
He wins by being the winner that the others want to support in return for jobs. The consequence of this is that if he falls back into the pack he is in serious trouble. To win he must be seen as the one to beat at all times.
That could involve an ad agency thinking it worthwhile propping up his BF price......
FFS. I'm in the office (which you may recall is an old Bank which is in the same building we live in). There is an upstairs storeroom which has had activity in it. The door from the kitchen up the stairs into it has slammed itself shut a couple of times.
After the last time it did so I had one of our Ring cameras in there. No activity so I moved it back to where it should have been. So no camera in there at the moment. And of course its just sodding slammed shut again.
And before anyone says "wind". There isn't any today. And although the rear door is open it is two rooms and a pair of 90 degree turns away and past several other doors which haven't just slammed.
I have no particular insight into the mindset of Tory MPs or members, but I'm surprised that Sunak is favourite. Apart from his FPN and his huge wealth etc., isn't his difficulty as follows:
1. He's pissed off the anti-Boris faction by serving as his loyal Chancellor and overseeing huge public spending and tax rises. 2. He's pissed off the pro-Boris faction by playing a key role in bringing Boris down.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 18m Becoming increasingly apparent that if the Tory right want to stop Rishi, they're going to have to unite behind Liz Truss.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
We had discussed a bit of work. Not politics. They didn't know me or me them. They started it...
Mmhmm.
As I said, people pick up on clues and body language etc - and even if they started it with something generic then its easy for it to go down multiple paths based on your own responses.
Again, that's how psychics operate - they say something generic then pick up on your response and clues - but all conversations can operate on a similar basis.
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 18m Becoming increasingly apparent that if the Tory right want to stop Rishi, they're going to have to unite behind Liz Truss.
Fairly weird that Rishi is no longer seen as being on the right. Presumably, simply because he is more competent than the right are used to!
PB embodying all that is good about this country with an extended discussion about the weather.
TBF we are facing a phenomenal spell of hot weather. If it verifies, it could be the hottest ever recorded in the UK - and our records go back further than anyone else’s - way back to the 17th-18th century
I believe the accuracy of 17th century temperature gauges was particularly impressive.
“the Central England Temperature series, which covers the temperature from the south Midlands to Lancashire, is the longest-running record in the world, dating from 1659.”
Who knows. We rarely get the metal of a politician before they are given power. The obvious exceptions are the ones who should never be allowed near power - Johnson, Trump, Patel, Raab etc. But for the rest you really can't say who will up their game until they are actually in the hot seat.
But in one way it doesn't matter. I am not interested in who will be the best person to win the next election. I am interested in who will be the best person to deal with the crisis of the next 2 years and do the right things even if it costs them the next election.
Only thing is, you're likely to have the same issue, don't you think? I can't see the new leader, faced with the oncoming crisis, NOT calling a General Election in November straight after the Tory conference. They probably won't get a better shot before their promises unravel. So the question of who will win an election becomes immediately relevant.
I doubt it. For a few reasons.
Firstly by November it would be too late - indeed it is already too late. The cost of living crisis is already here and their only chance is to weather it and get out the other side before calling a GE. . Secondly they will want to wait for the new boundary changes to improve their chances. Thirdly they will be haunted by the ghost of 2017. And finally, given the high chance of losing, any new PM is going to be desperate to avoid becoming the record holder for the shortest PM in history.
I don't see any chance at all of a new PM calling a GE in November - or indeed at any time before Spring 2024.
Using Electoral Calculus, the new boundaries will make little difference to the overall Labour majority.
On my EMA of latest polls, Labour are two short of an overall majority on current boundaries and three short on the new boundaries.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
Yes, and that is why conversations online are often so furious and do not reflect those in real life; and why having conversations only online is so bad for mental health. And that explains the general weirdness of the last twelve years and the particular weirdness during lockdown.
That is so true
It's almost impossible to be rude in real life the way you can be rude online. In real life you get facial and verbal queues, the other person blushes and frowns, and looks sad or angry, and - unless you actually want a fight (which is exceedingly rare) - your overwhelming instinct is to rush in and say Sorry, No, Don't take it like that. No one in real life likes to be a source of discord or unhappiness. All our social instincts tell us to get on with people and be popular, as that is better for you and for everyone
The internet is fucking up the world. Discuss. Online
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
And yet, 42% of us did not vote for the Far Right candidate as our supreme leader. Unlike France. Funny, that
43.6% of us voted for an equally unsuitable, dishonest, corrupt right wing populist. And, unlike in France, our political system actually made him leader.
As I say, there are significant political issues in France, Germany and elsewhere. There are real crises across western democracies. But their systems have held up, delivering governments capable of governing.
Ours hasn't - we've not had a stable government capable of developing and delivering a coherent policy since Nick Clegg left the scene. You can argue, and many do, with the policy record of the Coalition Government. But it was coherent and consistent, and the point is it had a meaningful record.
Well, it is rare to find someone to stand up for Stooly Clegg these days.
In our system, it is very rare to last as PM for more than 5 years (one full term). A Thatcher or a Blair are very rare.
Callaghan, Brown, May, Johnson all were < 5 years. Cameron was 6 years, Major was a limping 7 years.
I suspect the next few PMs will be < 5 years as well.
Sure. But Callaghan, Brown, May and Johnson were all failures on the fundamental level that they couldn't really look back on a substantive set of policy achievements - things they set out to do and did. Johnson is a partial exception to be fair - it has left a lot of serious unresolved issues, but he did leave the EU.
You can disagree very strongly with Thatcher and/or Blair. But the fact people still feel strongly about them is that they had substantive records - things they set out (rightly or wrongly) to do and actually did. The Coalition also had that - again there are serious arguments over austerity, but it was the approach to the economic crisis that the Government developed and saw through, whilst at the same time taking huge numbers out of income tax by raising the threshold etc. The Major Government, I'd concede, was always rocky - but Clarke on Newsnight yesterday made a reasonable case that he'd steadied the economic ship after the early 90s recession and then progressively cut taxes to meet the 20/40 objective he'd set early on.
You make an interesting point that, for all our talk in Britain of being a beacon of stability, we do throw up quite a few governments which aren't really capable of governing. If you are correct that we have a series of short-lived PMs to follow May and Johnson, that does rather worry me in terms of tackling real structural issues.
FFS. I'm in the office (which you may recall is an old Bank which is in the same building we live in). There is an upstairs storeroom which has had activity in it. The door from the kitchen up the stairs into it has slammed itself shut a couple of times.
After the last time it did so I had one of our Ring cameras in there. No activity so I moved it back to where it should have been. So no camera in there at the moment. And of course its just sodding slammed shut again.
And before anyone says "wind". There isn't any today. And although the rear door is open it is two rooms and a pair of 90 degree turns away and past several other doors which haven't just slammed.
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
These new HIMARS MLRS are brilliant, keep them coming NATO.
LOL that the enemy put their ammo dump on the railway line right where it crosses the river.
The enemy lacks the trucks to put their ammo anywhere else?
I've said it for a long time now, logistics wins wars. If NATO can keep the munitions going into Ukraine and if the Russians can't fix their logistic issues, then the longer this war goes on the better it is for Ukraine.
Russia's best hope was a blitzkrieg that overwhelmed Ukraine, their second best hope is that NATO abandons Ukraine. If NATO stands full square behind Ukraine and if the Russian's can't stop NATO munitions reaching the front line, they are really going to struggle.
NEW: Tory MPs get their first chance to quiz leadership candidates who make it through first round of turbocharged contest at 1922 hustings tomorrow afternoon. First round votes 1.30-3.30pm. Event just announced by Sir Graham Brady at 5pm.
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
I recently re-read Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising (an early book he co-wrote before he turned into a hard right asshole). One of the repeat themes they draw out of their WWIII scenario is that the Soviets have shit supply logistics and keep leaving munitions and fuel in easy to get at places. Because the war plan can't be altered.
My old copy of Red Storm Rising has fallen to pieces, and I'd love to re-read it. I'd prefer it on Kindle, but I can't seem to find it on the Kindle store?
Anyone know if it's available in English, or am I being terminally dumb?
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
But you don't go abroad, as you've told us, because you are TOO SCARED OF DRIVING ON THE RIGHT
lol
If you see people laughing, on the vanishingly few times you do go abroad (on a coach tour to Belgium) it is probably because you are a mincing coward who is bewildered by "that there spaghetti" and uses it to lace his shoes
Ah Leon, living proof that travel doesn't broaden the mind. Come on, you can do better than that.
But you told us this. You don't take hols abroad because you are too scared of driving on the right. Like a 12 year old. And yet you also present yourself as some kind of gauge of international opinion, measured on your many adventures abroad
I said that I don't like driving on the right and that that was a factor in deciding where to go on holiday, since it made the experience less relaxing, especially with the extra responsibility that comes with driving my three children. It isn't the only factor and in fact we went on holiday to France and Germany a couple of months ago, I hired a car and it was fine. You yourself said it took you ten years to become comfortable driving on the right, and since your holidays seem to be mostly solo perhaps you are more relaxed about the risks, as I imagine I would be too. In any case for work trips I wouldn't hire a car - for work I only travel to major cities where a car would be a hindrance. I can only tell you the kind of views I encounter, among a fairly narrow albeit influential group of people.
Do you drive an automatic, OLB? I was reflecting on this the other day. The only skill I have is driving. This is the only area I can think of in which I can do physically complex things without having to engage my brain. In particular, I was marvelling that I can change gear without noticing I'm doing so: some part of my brain registers engine noise and responsiveness of the car, and sends messages to both legs and one hand to do some quite complex things while my other hand continues to do something else all without me having to rationalise any of it. It is bizarre. I perhaps once also had the skill to play rugby, though I think that is less complex. And people who are musical are able to do really quite amazing things without having to think about it. When I drive abroad it ought to be hard to reverse all this, but somehow it isn't. The only time I risk getting into any bother is turning left onto a minor road when there is absolutely no traffic about. I claim no degree of specialness about this, because many - most? - people can do it. I'm certainly not trying to say I'm brilliant at driving, and it's not a skill that has come about through any extraordinary effort. That doesn't make it any less remarkable. But I think some people have to continue to think about what they are doing, and have to re-think driving abroad, which makes it challenging. Often these people also have to think about gear selection. My wife finds driving an automatic far easier for this reason, whereas I almost consciously don't notice.
Ooh, it also occurs to me I can type. That's weird too. That's taken much longer to master.
I do drive an automatic but only because my wife insisted - which is Ironic as she does about 1% of the driving in our household. I am generally not especially coordinated but learned to drive (with gears) surprisingly easily, passing the test first time in a few weeks. The whole driving on the right aversion probably just comes down to lack of practice, after a week of it back in April it was totally fine. Leon likes to make a big deal out of it for reasons best known to him.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
Yes, and that is why conversations online are often so furious and do not reflect those in real life; and why having conversations only online is so bad for mental health. And that explains the general weirdness of the last twelve years and the particular weirdness during lockdown.
That is so true
It's almost impossible to be rude in real life the way you can be rude online. In real life you get facial and verbal queues, the other person blushes and frowns, and looks sad or angry, and - unless you actually want a fight (which is exceedingly rare) - your overwhelming instinct is to rush in and say Sorry, No, Don't take it like that. No one in real life likes to be a source of discord or unhappiness. All our social instincts tell us to get on with people and be popular, as that is better for you and for everyone
The internet is fucking up the world. Discuss. Online
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
On one condition, though: that you film yourself listening to it and post that on PB.
Derren Brown is at heart a magician. Its all deceit. He says 'I don't use stooges'. Of course says that. Paul Daniels was capable of making things vanish etc.
I recall Derren using the wisdom of crowds to 'predict' the national lottery results, but he was only able to show his prediction after the event. Other magicians had many ways that they could have performed the trick.
The lottery win show was (sadly) clearly a camera trick. Probably his worst stunt, it was way too easy to work out how it was done.
The horse race betting tips show was much better, where he did the old trick of giving 10k people a different list of winners, and of course some of them came in.
Just for sh!ts and giggles, I love the video of him tossing a coin heads 10 times in a row. It’s a genuine video, and had never been done on camera before. What you’re watching is the last minute of about 10 hours of him tossing the coin continuously!
Partly, it was a bullet they fired hoping it would push the Tories into evicting the liar clown pronto, which didn't work and they are now stuck with.
Partly, the intention is to get every Tory MP's fingerprints - including the future leader and cabinet - on the decision to keep the liar clown in office through the summer. For Labour a lot rests on trying to spread the muck from the Johnson era over the lot of them, rather than allowing them another fake fresh start.
There are a couple of candidates who would be a fresh start. Most though have backed every single decision that has been made Enthusiastically.
The one to watch on that front is Sunak. We already know that a war of wills broke out between Sunak and Johnson over spending and taxation. Both are blaming the other. What I expect is that not only will Sunak blame Johnson, he will produce the evidence to prove it.
The problem this causes for the other cabinet-level candidates is simple: they are/will attack Sunak because he is the lead contender. But in doing so they will inadvertently hitch themselves to Johnsonomics.
A question for Tory posters - especially some of the newer / lurker ones: is the desire for "we're Tories, lets cut taxes" big enough to override basic fiscal conservatism? The country cannot afford most of what most of the candidates are promising and they will likely be forced to scrap most of these should they become PM. Does that matter? Or is it biggest fairy story wins the contest?
I am very uneasy with the race to see who can cut taxes the most and quickest
It is therefore incumbent on responsible conservatives to endorse Sunak's approach but I am content with Mordaunt as she is only suggesting cuts in fuel duty, but more importantly is a fresh face and one that could change the narrative for the party
You'll be "content" with whoever comes on top at the end.
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
Err He's beating both Truss and Mordaunt amongst Tory members (According to Opinium), and is ahead on MP nominations ?
There's this meme out there that Tory members are more nuts than Tory MPs and will back someone whacky.
If anything, it's the other way round.
[That said, I take that Ominum poll with a very large pinch of salt. The sample is small, it will be very hard to take a representative one anyway, & the MoE huge.]
Not Braverman or Patel, but the contest is heading to a Sunak - Mordaunt - Truss finale
Well in the thread header, it has "Now most polls have LAB with double digit poll leads and one overnight had the margin at 15%." So I agree, it is on topic.
As someone who is involved in campaigns I am always appalled by crass statements that come out of Government departments when an alleged wrongdoing is published. The statement is normally pointless, not focused on the issue at hand and makes matters worse. I have experienced this so many times with the campaigns I have been involved in. I am sure people like @ydoethur experiences the same when he raises issues and sees the crass replies in response.
The one from the MOD to the alleged SAS activity this morning is appalling. The response is:
'British forces served with courage and professionalism in Afghanistan'
I doubt anyone thinks that is generally untrue but what the hell has it got to do with the allegations this morning. It is crass, it is insensitive and is a reaction without any (further) investigation so also looks very defensive.
That statement is not a reply to the claims being made. By all means say it, but with a bit more added eg we are not aware..., we will investigate these appalling allegations..., etc, etc.
It is neither crass nor insensitive and moreover you are misquoting. What you quote is part of a much larger rebuttal including the fact there have been formal investigations into the claims which were found to be groundless. The MOD has very strongly contested the BBC claims and made it clear they are not factually accurate.
But you carry on with your selective quoting if it makes you feel better
I did not selectively quote. Others might have done so and I have picked that up. My quote is complete and in full from the BBC.
Apologies if that is not accurate, but that is what people will see.
I think you know me better than that Richard and I am a bit disappointed with that reply to me as I think you are aware that we are both on the same page on most things.
It is a bug bear of mine and I am used to this sort of crap from Govt departments (and apologies if this is not the case this time, but that is what is being quoted). Interestingly I have correspondence from one minister (who I knew personally) who sent me a letter on one campaign I am involved in with this sort of rubbish and hand written note underneath which basically said sorry I have to send this crap out.
You may be right on this in general but in this case specifically the rebuttal was clear and strong. Two separate RMP investigations both of which found no case to answer. Moreover, given it was the BBC who are making these claims and have the most reason to want to push their story, it seems strange to rely solely upon them for your quote. All the more so when it is so clearly one sided and selective.
The BBC alleges that the investigation were deliberately perfunctory, FWIW.
If this bit is accurate, it is certainly cause for concern. ..."Too many people were being killed on night raids and the explanations didn't make sense," he said. "Once somebody is detained, they shouldn't end up dead. For it to happen over and over again was causing alarm at HQ. It was clear at the time that something was wrong." Internal emails from the time show that officers reacted with disbelief to the reports, describing them as "quite incredible" and referring to the squadron's "latest massacre". An operations officer emailed a colleague to say that "for what must be the 10th time in the last two weeks" the squadron had sent a detainee back into a building "and he reappeared with an AK"...
It makes little sense that a highly professional organisation would make repeated errors of this nature, which were apparently widely discussed.
The BBC should know, as they are experts in deliberately perfunctory investigations...
vs Tugendhat in final 2 - possible but unlikely opponent in final 2 in scandal that comes out at right time - reasonable chance perhaps
Not really sure how else?
Polling (early days! lots can change!) suggests Sunak beats everyone bar Mordaunt, where it is 50/50. Mordaunt needs first MPs and then members to overlook the fact she has almost no experience at the top level.
Sunak is likely to be too risky for many MPs / members I suspect. He has Osborne written all over him - smug, conceited, question marks over his dealings and an overconfidence in his abilities (although probably more justified than for GO). Plus condescending.
I'm sorely tempted to make a trip to Cornwall this weekend, just to find out what worm charming tools people bring..
And what is silver music?
We have a worm charming in our village.
A pair of wooden seagull feet drumming the surface mimics how gulls get worms to come up.
Others use mystery potions, said by some to include Lea and Perrins.....
I have a vague recollection of doing experiments at primary school where we poured some chemical that I have forgotten on square yards and then counted the number of worms that came up. IIRC we concluded that there were more worms where the soil was damp and the vegetation lush. It was ground breaking stuff! The worms were then washed and returned to the soil unharmed by the way.
I think that would have been a dilute solution of potassium permanganate (which is toxic to worms). Mustard is now preferred, I think.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
On one condition, though: that you film yourself listening to it and post that on PB.
Derren Brown is at heart a magician. Its all deceit. He says 'I don't use stooges'. Of course says that. Paul Daniels was capable of making things vanish etc.
I recall Derren using the wisdom of crowds to 'predict' the national lottery results, but he was only able to show his prediction after the event. Other magicians had many ways that they could have performed the trick.
The lottery win show was (sadly) clearly a camera trick. Probably his worst stunt, it was way too easy to work out how it was done.
The horse race betting tips show was much better, where he did the old trick of giving 10k people a different list of winners, and of course some of them came in.
Just for sh!ts and giggles, I love the video of him tossing a coin heads 10 times in a row. It’s a genuine video, and had never been done on camera before. What you’re watching is the last minute of about 10 hours of him tossing the coin continuously!
What I find amazing is that people can see what happens for these, but then somehow believe the other stunts. Its a logical fail on their part.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
Yes, and that is why conversations online are often so furious and do not reflect those in real life; and why having conversations only online is so bad for mental health. And that explains the general weirdness of the last twelve years and the particular weirdness during lockdown.
That is so true
It's almost impossible to be rude in real life the way you can be rude online. In real life you get facial and verbal queues, the other person blushes and frowns, and looks sad or angry, and - unless you actually want a fight (which is exceedingly rare) - your overwhelming instinct is to rush in and say Sorry, No, Don't take it like that. No one in real life likes to be a source of discord or unhappiness. All our social instincts tell us to get on with people and be popular, as that is better for you and for everyone
The internet is fucking up the world. Discuss. Online
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 18m Becoming increasingly apparent that if the Tory right want to stop Rishi, they're going to have to unite behind Liz Truss.
I'm sorely tempted to make a trip to Cornwall this weekend, just to find out what worm charming tools people bring..
And what is silver music?
We have a worm charming in our village.
A pair of wooden seagull feet drumming the surface mimics how gulls get worms to come up.
Others use mystery potions, said by some to include Lea and Perrins.....
Seems a poor adaptation by worms that the sound of a seagull on the surface should have them rushing up to investigate. My conclusion is that worms are idiots.
Isn't it more that they thinks its rain? The seagulls are mimicing that.
Yes, its more clever adaptation by seagulls than bad adaptation by worms.
Rain can suffocate worms if they stay underground, so they've evolved to respond to rain. Seagulls want to eat worms, so they've evolved to mimic the rain.
Evolution is clever. Much of it is defensive, animals learning how to defend themselves from threats, but the seagulls have taken their prey's defence (against the rain) and evolved a way to use it offensively to capture their prey. Clever!
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
But you don't go abroad, as you've told us, because you are TOO SCARED OF DRIVING ON THE RIGHT
lol
If you see people laughing, on the vanishingly few times you do go abroad (on a coach tour to Belgium) it is probably because you are a mincing coward who is bewildered by "that there spaghetti" and uses it to lace his shoes
Ah Leon, living proof that travel doesn't broaden the mind. Come on, you can do better than that.
But you told us this. You don't take hols abroad because you are too scared of driving on the right. Like a 12 year old. And yet you also present yourself as some kind of gauge of international opinion, measured on your many adventures abroad
I said that I don't like driving on the right and that that was a factor in deciding where to go on holiday, since it made the experience less relaxing, especially with the extra responsibility that comes with driving my three children. It isn't the only factor and in fact we went on holiday to France and Germany a couple of months ago, I hired a car and it was fine. You yourself said it took you ten years to become comfortable driving on the right, and since your holidays seem to be mostly solo perhaps you are more relaxed about the risks, as I imagine I would be too. In any case for work trips I wouldn't hire a car - for work I only travel to major cities where a car would be a hindrance. I can only tell you the kind of views I encounter, among a fairly narrow albeit influential group of people.
Do you drive an automatic, OLB? I was reflecting on this the other day. The only skill I have is driving. This is the only area I can think of in which I can do physically complex things without having to engage my brain. In particular, I was marvelling that I can change gear without noticing I'm doing so: some part of my brain registers engine noise and responsiveness of the car, and sends messages to both legs and one hand to do some quite complex things while my other hand continues to do something else all without me having to rationalise any of it. It is bizarre. I perhaps once also had the skill to play rugby, though I think that is less complex. And people who are musical are able to do really quite amazing things without having to think about it. When I drive abroad it ought to be hard to reverse all this, but somehow it isn't. The only time I risk getting into any bother is turning left onto a minor road when there is absolutely no traffic about. I claim no degree of specialness about this, because many - most? - people can do it. I'm certainly not trying to say I'm brilliant at driving, and it's not a skill that has come about through any extraordinary effort. That doesn't make it any less remarkable. But I think some people have to continue to think about what they are doing, and have to re-think driving abroad, which makes it challenging. Often these people also have to think about gear selection. My wife finds driving an automatic far easier for this reason, whereas I almost consciously don't notice.
Ooh, it also occurs to me I can type. That's weird too. That's taken much longer to master.
Read Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahnemann if you are interested in this. He explains it as the brain has two systems. System 1 does most of your life, like walking or driving - it operates automatically and quickly, with nearly no effort and little voluntary control. System 2 is reserved for things that demand your attention (including learning to drive or walk, but not once you have learned them) and that part of your brain is much more deliberate and controlled.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
On one condition, though: that you film yourself listening to it and post that on PB.
Derren Brown is at heart a magician. Its all deceit. He says 'I don't use stooges'. Of course says that. Paul Daniels was capable of making things vanish etc.
I recall Derren using the wisdom of crowds to 'predict' the national lottery results, but he was only able to show his prediction after the event. Other magicians had many ways that they could have performed the trick.
The lottery win show was (sadly) clearly a camera trick. Probably his worst stunt, it was way too easy to work out how it was done.
The horse race betting tips show was much better, where he did the old trick of giving 10k people a different list of winners, and of course some of them came in.
Just for sh!ts and giggles, I love the video of him tossing a coin heads 10 times in a row. It’s a genuine video, and had never been done on camera before. What you’re watching is the last minute of about 10 hours of him tossing the coin continuously!
What I find amazing is that people can see what happens for these, but then somehow believe the other stunts. Its a logical fail on their part.
I'm pretty sure some of the mentalist tricks where he makes people say what he wants, via suggestion, are for real
He mixes these up with more traditional (but inventive) stage magic. Is my understanding?
I have no particular insight into the mindset of Tory MPs or members, but I'm surprised that Sunak is favourite. Apart from his FPN and his huge wealth etc., isn't his difficulty as follows:
1. He's pissed off the anti-Boris faction by serving as his loyal Chancellor and overseeing huge public spending and tax rises. 2. He's pissed off the pro-Boris faction by playing a key role in bringing Boris down.
Both true. However, he is also the nearest the Conservative party have to a PM in waiting. That's manifesting itself both in the width of the field (Conservatives would love to have a not-Rishi to annoint) and the lack of support for most of the candidates (all of them, including Rishi, have big obvious potential flaws).
The weakness of Johnson's cabinet is just one of the terrible legacies Big Dog is leaving for someone else to clean up.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
Well, weirdly enough, and speaking as the PB-er who travels more than any other, certainly in the last six months, I can report that in the last 11 weeks of constant movement, from the USA to Turkey to Greece to Germany to Georgia to Armenia to Montenegro....I have not heard a single statement like this. And I have often volunteered my nationality in conversations, as you do
It's funny that it is the dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers that consistently uncover these reactions, and no one else. Anyone might think they provoke them, eagerly asking opinions of "our awful prime minister" - at which point their bored interlocutors, desperate to get rid of this creepy British weirdo in sandals, tell them what they want to hear so they go away
Yup. These three Germans I had never met detected that I was a "dimmer, middlebrow, lefty, Britain-hating Remainers" and adjusted their conversation topic accordingly.
Probably, that is how conversations work after all. People pick up on clues, or get led in a direction and the conversation goes accordingly, without you even realising its happening.
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
indeed
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
On one condition, though: that you film yourself listening to it and post that on PB.
Derren Brown is at heart a magician. Its all deceit. He says 'I don't use stooges'. Of course says that. Paul Daniels was capable of making things vanish etc.
I recall Derren using the wisdom of crowds to 'predict' the national lottery results, but he was only able to show his prediction after the event. Other magicians had many ways that they could have performed the trick.
The lottery win show was (sadly) clearly a camera trick. Probably his worst stunt, it was way too easy to work out how it was done.
The horse race betting tips show was much better, where he did the old trick of giving 10k people a different list of winners, and of course some of them came in.
Just for sh!ts and giggles, I love the video of him tossing a coin heads 10 times in a row. It’s a genuine video, and had never been done on camera before. What you’re watching is the last minute of about 10 hours of him tossing the coin continuously!
What I find amazing is that people can see what happens for these, but then somehow believe the other stunts. Its a logical fail on their part.
I saw his live show in London a few years ago, and was completely blown away by him. He’s very good at what he does. Yes, it’s all trickery and misdirection, but great entertainment.
Except that I worked out the finale within seconds of it happening. It relied on a raised box containing a prediction being visible at all times, but it disappeared behind the safety curtain for 10 minutes at the interval, at a point where enough was known to be able to switch the box.
I also saw Penn & Teller in Vegas, that was another awesome show, which finished with them shooting bullets at each other!
I'm sorely tempted to make a trip to Cornwall this weekend, just to find out what worm charming tools people bring..
And what is silver music?
We have a worm charming in our village.
A pair of wooden seagull feet drumming the surface mimics how gulls get worms to come up.
Others use mystery potions, said by some to include Lea and Perrins.....
I have a vague recollection of doing experiments at primary school where we poured some chemical that I have forgotten on square yards and then counted the number of worms that came up. IIRC we concluded that there were more worms where the soil was damp and the vegetation lush. It was ground breaking stuff! The worms were then washed and returned to the soil unharmed by the way.
I think that would have been a dilute solution of potassium permanganate (which is toxic to worms). Mustard is now preferred, I think.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.
But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.
The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
I think what is happening here is people being cautious reflectors when discussing politics with someone from another country.
If I met a pro Trump American, my language about US politics would be very different to if I met a normal American. Not 180 degrees different, but significantly so, and I feel that is the correct and polite way to talk to a stranger in a casual conversation about politics.
Similarly Brits who really dislike our politics, will get that view echoed when abroad, and Brits who dislike EU politics and think Boris a great statesman will get a very different response.
In reality most foreigners don't care much about UK politics either way.
I think I am in a good position to comment on this. Although Germans will usually avoid being very critical of the UK in front of me and also avoid offending me, I am assimilated into the culture well, and I to know what is being said around me, on other tables, in the media, the asides at work meetings etc, and I understand most of the nuances.
Most Germans really like the UK countries and Ireland. They like the cities, the countryside, the beer, the 90+ year old queen, the history and overall the British/Irish culture. But in terms of politics most people just don't get, why Britain has willingly taken itself down a rabbit hole. Voting to leave the EU wsa just the start, the type of Brexit has made life really difficult for most British businesses to export to the continent. The UK elected a prime minister, who not only "turned out" to be an unreliable joker, he was elected when everyone knew he was an unreliable joker. Most think that the UK going back on the Brexit trade agreement is a really bad idea for the UK as it will make it even harder for British businesses and politicians to get good deals in the near future. Almost everyone is supportive of the ROI point off view.
You're right that most Germans don't really care that much about what the UK does, but they do think about it at times, and when they do, they just shake their heads and think "why?"
I'm sorely tempted to make a trip to Cornwall this weekend, just to find out what worm charming tools people bring..
And what is silver music?
We have a worm charming in our village.
A pair of wooden seagull feet drumming the surface mimics how gulls get worms to come up.
Others use mystery potions, said by some to include Lea and Perrins.....
I have a vague recollection of doing experiments at primary school where we poured some chemical that I have forgotten on square yards and then counted the number of worms that came up. IIRC we concluded that there were more worms where the soil was damp and the vegetation lush. It was ground breaking stuff! The worms were then washed and returned to the soil unharmed by the way.
I think that would have been a dilute solution of potassium permanganate (which is toxic to worms). Mustard is now preferred, I think.
Comments
Most conversations about Britain, abroad (outside our nearest neighbours and the Anglosphere), relate to English football, because they DO know a lot about that; the rest is a mild sense that Britain is an important wealthy country, probably a good place, maybe cold, errr
I've not heard Brexit mentioned once, since about 2017, not even in western Europe - with one exception: a border guard in Switzerland who told some queueing and whingeing Brits, stuck in the Rest of the World line: "Well, you voted for this" - and everyone chuckled, ruefully or otherwise. That's it
That's how psychics are able to scam people, because they double down on that, but all conversations can operate on that basis.
I have noticed a couple of minor flounces off Lee Anderson's constituency facebook group due to his withdrawal of support from Boris, but nothing that looks seismic. If that means anything.
My conclusion is that worms are idiots.
Anything else just take too long to be judged a success or failure before the next government (or sooner yet, the next Education Secretary) comes in with their new set of obsessions they want to impose.
In the case of post 16s, I think we could try more academically focussed large sixth form colleges - non selective, but with a minimum requirement of pass grades in English and maths.
With much larger catchment areas than most comprehensives (sometimes over more than one local authority), they avoid geographical gaming of education by wealthier parents. The large size allows for a more extensive sixth form offer than smaller schools, and the employment of specialists in given subjects. The academic focus selects out the disruptive students by admission.
And they give a real chance to the academic slow starters with potential, who would be discarded by selection at age 11.
In terms of next Opposition Leader if Labour then won that general election though the Tories would certainly move right, Badenoch, Patel would all be in the frame, even Rees Mogg might give it a go
In any case for work trips I wouldn't hire a car - for work I only travel to major cities where a car would be a hindrance. I can only tell you the kind of views I encounter, among a fairly narrow albeit influential group of people.
He is on his way out.
The Opposition complaining about the PM's personal issues after the PM has already resigned is rather banging on about the stable door after the horse has bolted. Its done already, he's going already, so saying "we think the PM should go" when the government response is "we know, the PM is going" is just weak.
If you want to embarrass the Government there's plenty more that can be discussed instead. Just yesterday eg Ofgem said that the winter fuel price cap is going to be above even the highest estimates previously, the Opposition could be choosing to focus on that knowing that the public will care and divided Tories won't be able to come up with an answer - but no, focus on the problem the Tories are actually dealing with, that will work. 🙄
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1546745849534988289
Darren Brown uses this technique a lot. He deftly but easily steers a conversation in a certain way, towards a certain subject, because people are always keen to seek agreement, and will concur with almost anything if it keeps the mood bright
It seems unlikely ("he reached behind the sofa for his AK") but not impossible. Generally if you have a squad of SF in your house with their pointy sticks pointing at you you would need balls the size of cannonballs to then play the Shahid card. Not impossible, but house searches (what are the SF doing those for anyway) unless they are to snatch are not that type of operation.
If there were unambiguous deaths in the field then as you say unless they bodycammed it (not impossible you wouldn't believe what some people do) then they will paint it as fog of war/he posed an immediate threat and no one will be the wiser.
Unless they have someone who is going to spill the beans. Do they have that? That would be a game-changer.
Do I think HMF would kill people as described by the BBC? I don't think it is at all out of the question; I never saw such behaviour but then I was the PBI not some handy-dandy special unit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0010x7c
On one condition, though: that you film yourself listening to it and post that on PB.
Repeated occurrences of that is not particularly believable, given that they would have been restrained (tie wrapped hands, etc).
The story is also about the serial prevention of proper investigations into these incidents.
We'll have to wait for the details to assess how credible the allegations are, but it does not sound like something to be brushed off so lightly.
And Topping might have rather more idea about it than DA.
I think we can dismiss all your opinions on higher order matters, until you can work out which hand holds the fork
You're letting your own "Britain-hating" (well, certain kinds of Briton) prejudices make judgements of events you haven't witnessed to self-reassure your own cock-sure prejudices.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1546775349102518272
As you can probably guess like @ydoethur I am not a fan of the civil service.
I, for example, am on 12 political betting sites and have categorically told each one a different sure fire thing for next Cons leader. I will be a hero on one of those sites.
On PB, as an illustration, I have been saying it will be Mordaunt.
I have a relative with 2x SEND children, with relevant diagnoses. For one she went through the system and ended up spending £10s of thousands on reviews each of which needed a specialist lawyer to be in attendance, and on special reports (£1-2k for some of those), hundreds of hours on meetings and prep, and independent tutors etc.
The other she said "f*ck this for a game of soldiers" and just helped the child via her own means.
One graduated with a Business degree from Brighton and is now working in London; the other one is having GCSE results this summer, and plans to be a Doctor.
At school we were streamed for some subjects (not for English, Drama, Art, for example), but basically everyone wanted to learn. There was some movement between streams.
I'm sceptical on both counts. On (b), I think the fissures within the party and the fact that none of the candidates is particularly appealing, strong on policy, or charismatic will mean any bounce is minimal, and on (a) the natural tendency will be for the new leader to think they are capable of turning things round. Plus there is always 'we have s big majority, we don't need to go to the country, and even if things look dire, maybe something will turn up in the next two years to shift the position in our favour'
Sunak wins by overwhelmingly winning the minority of Tory members who were Remainers in 2016, even though Mordaunt and Truss both narrowly win Tory members who voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1546763932391669765?s=20&t=GSkD6qSlK3mWXunIShNbEQ
Personally I suspect he has the worst chance against Penny. At least she has held a cabinet role if experience starts being raised (however briefly). I could see it going either way against Liz, but I think I would be tempted to have him as slight favourite. Up against Kemi, despite her growing popularity he could edge it on the basis that she has not held a cabinet post and the media will regularly remind us of that fact.
Basically he has a path to leader, I think it is incorrect to suggest that he’s got no chance with the membership.
As you note, which I mentioned upthread, having a series of prisoners all of a sudden reach down the back of the sofa for a weapon I find very challenging to believe.
She’s the leadership candidate everyone’s talking about
@KemiBadenoch writes for @TheSun
🔥 Slams unis spending more time “indoctrinating” than teaching
🔥 Slash cash to low quality degrees
🔥Make it easier to become a nurse or copper
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1546605209669042181
@DPJHodges
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18m
Becoming increasingly apparent that if the Tory right want to stop Rishi, they're going to have to unite behind Liz Truss.
If anything, it's the other way round.
[That said, I take that Ominum poll with a very large pinch of salt. The sample is small, it will be very hard to take a representative one anyway, & the MoE huge.]
That speaks a truth. Foreigners don't give a fuck about British politics EXCEPT where it might impinge them. If you meet europhile financial-political types in Europe yes they might be antiBrexit - because they hate Brexit. Indians might talk about British immigration policy. I imagine Ukrainians will be pro-Boris, etc
Americans talk about British royalty, because they yearn for it
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
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13m
NEW: Tory MPs get their first chance to quiz leadership candidates who make it through first round of turbocharged contest at 1922 hustings tomorrow afternoon. First round votes 1.30-3.30pm. Event just announced by Sir Graham Brady at 5pm.
I was reflecting on this the other day. The only skill I have is driving. This is the only area I can think of in which I can do physically complex things without having to engage my brain. In particular, I was marvelling that I can change gear without noticing I'm doing so: some part of my brain registers engine noise and responsiveness of the car, and sends messages to both legs and one hand to do some quite complex things while my other hand continues to do something else all without me having to rationalise any of it. It is bizarre.
I perhaps once also had the skill to play rugby, though I think that is less complex. And people who are musical are able to do really quite amazing things without having to think about it.
When I drive abroad it ought to be hard to reverse all this, but somehow it isn't. The only time I risk getting into any bother is turning left onto a minor road when there is absolutely no traffic about.
I claim no degree of specialness about this, because many - most? - people can do it. I'm certainly not trying to say I'm brilliant at driving, and it's not a skill that has come about through any extraordinary effort. That doesn't make it any less remarkable. But I think some people have to continue to think about what they are doing, and have to re-think driving abroad, which makes it challenging. Often these people also have to think about gear selection. My wife finds driving an automatic far easier for this reason, whereas I almost consciously don't notice.
Ooh, it also occurs to me I can type. That's weird too. That's taken much longer to master.
Personally think he is one of the better candidates but realistically he has a load of negs. Tainted with Boris, FPN, out of line with MPs on tax, non dom, too rich. In summary, simply too short.
I recall Derren using the wisdom of crowds to 'predict' the national lottery results, but he was only able to show his prediction after the event. Other magicians had many ways that they could have performed the trick.
If this bit is accurate, it is certainly cause for concern.
..."Too many people were being killed on night raids and the explanations didn't make sense," he said. "Once somebody is detained, they shouldn't end up dead. For it to happen over and over again was causing alarm at HQ. It was clear at the time that something was wrong."
Internal emails from the time show that officers reacted with disbelief to the reports, describing them as "quite incredible" and referring to the squadron's "latest massacre". An operations officer emailed a colleague to say that "for what must be the 10th time in the last two weeks" the squadron had sent a detainee back into a building "and he reappeared with an AK"...
It makes little sense that a highly professional organisation would make repeated errors of this nature, which were apparently widely discussed.
After the last time it did so I had one of our Ring cameras in there. No activity so I moved it back to where it should have been. So no camera in there at the moment. And of course its just sodding slammed shut again.
And before anyone says "wind". There isn't any today. And although the rear door is open it is two rooms and a pair of 90 degree turns away and past several other doors which haven't just slammed.
I will get this on camera one day!
1. He's pissed off the anti-Boris faction by serving as his loyal Chancellor and overseeing huge public spending and tax rises.
2. He's pissed off the pro-Boris faction by playing a key role in bringing Boris down.
As I said, people pick up on clues and body language etc - and even if they started it with something generic then its easy for it to go down multiple paths based on your own responses.
Again, that's how psychics operate - they say something generic then pick up on your response and clues - but all conversations can operate on a similar basis.
These new HIMARS MLRS are brilliant, keep them coming NATO.
LOL that the enemy put their ammo dump on the railway line right where it crosses the river.
From the header, I see OGH has misspelled "my opinion" as "the hard fact".
On my EMA of latest polls, Labour are two short of an overall majority on current boundaries and three short on the new boundaries.
Current boundaries
New boundaries
It's almost impossible to be rude in real life the way you can be rude online. In real life you get facial and verbal queues, the other person blushes and frowns, and looks sad or angry, and - unless you actually want a fight (which is exceedingly rare) - your overwhelming instinct is to rush in and say Sorry, No, Don't take it like that. No one in real life likes to be a source of discord or unhappiness. All our social instincts tell us to get on with people and be popular, as that is better for you and for everyone
The internet is fucking up the world. Discuss. Online
You can disagree very strongly with Thatcher and/or Blair. But the fact people still feel strongly about them is that they had substantive records - things they set out (rightly or wrongly) to do and actually did. The Coalition also had that - again there are serious arguments over austerity, but it was the approach to the economic crisis that the Government developed and saw through, whilst at the same time taking huge numbers out of income tax by raising the threshold etc. The Major Government, I'd concede, was always rocky - but Clarke on Newsnight yesterday made a reasonable case that he'd steadied the economic ship after the early 90s recession and then progressively cut taxes to meet the 20/40 objective he'd set early on.
You make an interesting point that, for all our talk in Britain of being a beacon of stability, we do throw up quite a few governments which aren't really capable of governing. If you are correct that we have a series of short-lived PMs to follow May and Johnson, that does rather worry me in terms of tackling real structural issues.
I've said it for a long time now, logistics wins wars. If NATO can keep the munitions going into Ukraine and if the Russians can't fix their logistic issues, then the longer this war goes on the better it is for Ukraine.
Russia's best hope was a blitzkrieg that overwhelmed Ukraine, their second best hope is that NATO abandons Ukraine. If NATO stands full square behind Ukraine and if the Russian's can't stop NATO munitions reaching the front line, they are really going to struggle.
https://twitter.com/timmyvoe/status/1546541356134416384?s=20&t=b0yXqEHTv164s8ejaFcI2w
Anyone know if it's available in English, or am I being terminally dumb?
The Conservatives can turn the tide against the SNP by breaking through the ‘yellow wall’ and winning in Scotland, according to Penny Mordaunt.
https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1546752716122324992
The horse race betting tips show was much better, where he did the old trick of giving 10k people a different list of winners, and of course some of them came in.
Just for sh!ts and giggles, I love the video of him tossing a coin heads 10 times in a row. It’s a genuine video, and had never been done on camera before. What you’re watching is the last minute of about 10 hours of him tossing the coin continuously!
Rain can suffocate worms if they stay underground, so they've evolved to respond to rain. Seagulls want to eat worms, so they've evolved to mimic the rain.
Evolution is clever. Much of it is defensive, animals learning how to defend themselves from threats, but the seagulls have taken their prey's defence (against the rain) and evolved a way to use it offensively to capture their prey. Clever!
Priti has clearly left it too late to declare, surely, so can we assume she is going to throw her weight behind someone?
Can Kemi make it to 20?
Shapps and Javid look to be foundering - will we get an endorsement from either of them?
Do JRM and Mad Nad side with Truss as rumoured?
Fascinating afternoon coming up.
He mixes these up with more traditional (but inventive) stage magic. Is my understanding?
The weakness of Johnson's cabinet is just one of the terrible legacies Big Dog is leaving for someone else to clean up.
Except that I worked out the finale within seconds of it happening. It relied on a raised box containing a prediction being visible at all times, but it disappeared behind the safety curtain for 10 minutes at the interval, at a point where enough was known to be able to switch the box.
I also saw Penn & Teller in Vegas, that was another awesome show, which finished with them shooting bullets at each other!
It’s fantastic news that we have agency barristers on hand to pick up the slack
Most Germans really like the UK countries and Ireland. They like the cities, the countryside, the beer, the 90+ year old queen, the history and overall the British/Irish culture.
But in terms of politics most people just don't get, why Britain has willingly taken itself down a rabbit hole. Voting to leave the EU wsa just the start, the type of Brexit has made life really difficult for most British businesses to export to the continent. The UK elected a prime minister, who not only "turned out" to be an unreliable joker, he was elected when everyone knew he was an unreliable joker. Most think that the UK going back on the Brexit trade agreement is a really bad idea for the UK as it will make it even harder for British businesses and politicians to get good deals in the near future. Almost everyone is supportive of the ROI point off view.
You're right that most Germans don't really care that much about what the UK does, but they do think about it at times, and when they do, they just shake their heads and think "why?"