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The battle to find Starmer’s succesor as LOTO? – politicalbetting.com
The battle to find Starmer’s succesor as LOTO? – politicalbetting.com
We now know much more about how the Conservative leadership contest is going to operate with the outcome being revealed in the first week of September. At least it is pretty certain are that the winner will be able to move into Number 10 as Prime Minister and have perhaps two years in the top job. But what about after that?
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He who knows not, and knows not he knows not, he is a fool—shun him;
He who knows not, and knows he knows not, he is simple—teach him;
He who knows, and knows not he knows, he is asleep—wake him;
He who knows, and knows he knows, he is wise—follow him.
Arab Proverb.
Made me think, which of the current Tory candidates doing the beauty pageant would pass the iggle piggle bully test....a fair few would definitely fail it.
While the media have taken quite a snobbish mocking approach to the number of candidates on offer, the Conservative party have acted very quickly to make sure that the Westminster party contest will move swiftly and be completed before recess. As for the Opposition parties, they now need to realise that they are going to face a new PM and Conservative Government and not the one they would have liked to have faced at the next GE.
Personally, I would love to see Tom Tugendhut and Penny Mordaunt on the final ballot.
3.2 Rishi Sunak
3.35 Penny Mordaunt
5 Liz Truss
12.5 Tom Tugendhat
15 Kemi Badenoch
27 Jeremy Hunt
60 Sajid Javid
75 Nadhim Zahawi
75 Priti Patel
90 Suella Braverman
100 Dominic Raab
5.4 Andy Burnham
7.4 Lisa Nandy
8 Angela Rayner
9 Rachel Reeves
9 Wes Streeting
10.5 Yvette Cooper
16.5 Bridget Phillipson
30 Jess Phillips
30 Rosena Allin-Khan
32 David Lammy
36 Dan Jarvis
36 Sadiq Khan
40 Emily Thornberry
50 Stella Creasy
Also a big fan of Penny Mordaunt due to her impressive performance in her Ministerial briefs and at the despatch box, she has been on my watch list for a while because she is another Ministerial grafter who often went under the radar. I have to be honest, and because like with Tom Tugendhut I am not surprised at her early success among the Westminster Conservative party and with the membership across the UK she has been turning heads for a while now. They both have on social media making waves for a while now.
I see this leadership contest through the prism of how it will play out for the Scottish Conservatives, and for me the two candidates on the final ballot paper who are best placed to help the Scottish Conservatives at the next GE are Tom Tugendhut and Penny Mordaunt. I am a big fan of Alex Massie in the Times, but I had to disagree with his latest comment that "None of the candidates to lead the Tory party have much to say about Scotland for there is not much they can usefully say.". He has clearly not seen the latest front page of the Scottish Daily Mail where Penny Mordaunt is front and centre taking on the SNP... Alex got it wrong on this issue because of the recent redrawing of the political map and the huge swings in votes we have seen right across the UK in recent elections which indicates that no future leader or PM of any party can afford to ignore their heartlands never mind right across the UK.
I'm quite sure that Mordaunt has the best chance of winning the next GE.
Sunak would do a solid job and probably get a Hung Parliament.
Truss will be a disaster electorally. If she does win, I think there is a serious chance that she gets deposed before the next GE. If the Conservatives are in a worse position in 12 months time I think there's every chance the MPs throw her out - especially if if it's clear she was only the MPs 2nd choice in the first place (which is likely to be the case). There would still then be plenty of time for a successor to take over pre GE.
That is a mistake in my opinion.
From my perspective the Tories need to find someone who can knock the Tory party into shape, get the support of (or dominate) the right and then put together a coherent and sound plan and withstand the uncommon storm.
If you frame the problem like that then inexperienced back benchers, with little achievement behind them look risky. Sunak also looks risky, because the right will not wear it. Truss looks more attractive.
I guess Elon wanted to pay homage to all of Russia's exploding ammo dumps...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWeeWMu10A0
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1546712454117240832
Compilation of the clips showing the explosion of the ammunition warehouse in Nova Kakhovka.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1546705689627635713
According to the Walgreen's index, the US is at 41% test positivity, higher than Omicron BA.1 and since this tracking was established
It will be interesting, if somewhat worrying, to see how long this mass infection can continue with new variants.
If the risk of long Covid doesn’t decrease with each subsequent infection (it’s possible some individuals just aren’t susceptible) then it could be a significant, even large problem for long term health.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
Interesting to see Tugendhat and Badenoch relatively short and Hunt now going out.
Reckon it's a fair call to have a 20 MP threshold to whittle the over-sized field down.
It's not ridiculous.
Latvia may increase its defence spending and introduce compulsory military service regardless of gender to contain security risks arising from Russia. President Egils Levits, 67, told Reuters that security is the “priority of our politics today” and plans to raise the defence budget to 2.5% of GDP “may not be enough”. (Guardian)
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
I wonder if that’s a record?
It's ironic that Latvia, smaller and right next to Russia, is taking the right steps whereas Germany is more distant, far larger, yet has been wavering the whole damned time.
Incidentally, there's another excellent Perun on the use of artillery in the war. It's long but good:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMEpxX7rS5I
Not much can be done other than to better mitigate against it. The world isn't going to get to Net Zero until about 2070 and then there will be 50+ years on top trying to claw back carbon and methane out again. So
47C is horrible wherever you are. If you haven’t got aircon and you can’t get to water you are in trouble
Labour have also been very timid when it comes to the anthropogenic forcing of the climate. It's by far the biggest issue we have globally and hardly anyone is dong anything about it.
Things are changing with the younger generation but once again the wrinklies will screw the rest of us as they have done many times before.
Sighs...
It can't. 100 year project. And it's going to get worse. So only sensible immediate thing governments can do is put Aircon and refuges wherever they can.
BTW Murali, what are your views on what is happening in Sri Lanka atm?
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday
Then Tugendhat and Badenoch.
Truss, Mordaunt, Sunak final 3.
But that won't please the hairshirts that want to see us suffer
I think he'll drop out today.
Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
Some years ago we went on a cruise to Norway and Iceland in the summer and as we sailed to the Lofoten Islands (beautiful) and the Artic circle the temperature exceeded 30c (86f)
It was entirely unexpected
Tugendhat won't make it either so I'm contemplating when to lay him down too.
What does she think about inflation and tax vs spend? Defence capabilities and the war in ukraine? Energy policy? Nhs reform? Northern Ireland protocol? Etc… I feel like we have too many blank slates in this election. People like her distrust of CRT so assume she’s the one on everything else. Equally true of Wallace and Ukraine etc…
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1546636309468516353?t=a8BoqgSJnxmP68gK9zO8Zw&s=09
Seville is notoriously hot - the hottest city in a hot country. But 44c two days in a row…
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world
Never mind. I am sure all those opposed to Net Zero or denying climate change will be very welcoming to the climate refugees from Africa and the Middle East.
Which means going forward it's going to be great for things like car charging but it's not so great for things that require continual supply.
Hopefully, this will be a catalyst to finally being the country together. I am hopeful but whether it will happen with the xenophobic Buddhist clergy calling the shots, who knows?
The remaining candidates will hope for a cabinet position
The foothills of the Pyrenees, the alps, the Dolomites, the Balkans
Look at where the bulk of the MP support is going and how poorly he performs with the members, who think he's a "Remainer".
He's this contests Rory Stewart.
Constanze Stelzenmüller
@ConStelz
“Viele von uns waren ja völlig überrascht, als sie erfahren haben, dass nicht nur die Pipelines, sondern auch die Speicher im Besitz Russlands sind. Mir war das ebenfalls nicht klar. Einem Nationalen Sicherheitsrat wäre so etwas aufgefallen” (C. Heusgen)
😳
“Many of us were completely surprised when they found out that not only the pipelines but also the storage facilities are owned by Russia. I didn't realize that either. A National Security Council would have noticed something like that” (C. Heusgen)
😳
https://www.zeit.de/2022/27/angela-merkel-aussenpolitik-russland-wladimir-putin
https://twitter.com/ConStelz/status/1546494563333840897
Chacun a son gout I guess
And that “seasonal variety” also means 3 months of dark cold grimness. And no climate change is going to make British winters less dark
All hot countries (that can afford it) have air conditioning. All of them. The alternative is people simply swelter and die.
Yes, they draw more power from the grid. You do it in parallel with decarbonising the grid, and moving to nuclear and renewables.
The same grubby Cabinet rallying round her. Not what is needed.
Not all that hot here yet and yesterday never got really what one might call 'cooking' but who knows what today will bring!
Mr Mark at 7:30 made a good point about tidal power generation; much more reliable than wind, although I suspect it's quite expensive to install and possibly environmentally questionable!
Maybe I should move there with a bolt hole in Thailand for the winter
Is that abnormal?
Our 4 year old new build in the UK we can keep relatively cool but it takes work. In the morning open all the windows up if they are not in direct sunlight. Those in direct sunlight should be kept shut along with any and all curtains, blinds etc. In mid morning when the temperature outside gets warmer than inside every single door and window should be closed up along with the blinds/curtains. Stays like that until the evening and the temperature outside drops below that inside when you open everything up again. Difficult to always ensure doors stay shut, particularly with kids! This system probably relies on good insulation and maybe assisted by the fact out house is rendered white.
When the thunderstorm came everyone rushed outside the mountain huts to collect the water in buckets. Had extra helicopter shuttles to bring bottled water in.