Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
If this continues, inland Spain and Greece, and possibly southwest France and Sicily/S Italy, will empty out
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday
There are few places taken in the round so pleasant to live than the UK. Provided you have a few quid of course, which is true in most places but especially so here.
Yes, mild climate; 8 months of good weather if you live on the south coast. Plus, seasonal variety.
Eight months of good weather?! Lol
Chacun a son gout I guess
And that “seasonal variety” also means 3 months of dark cold grimness. And no climate change is going to make British winters less dark
I never realised how good the weather is in the south east of the UK until I spent large amounts of time in scandinavia. Their season of good weather is less than half of what we get in the UK. Then they have 8 months of miserable weather. Cold, wind, rain, ice, snow (occasionally beautiful but mostly hazardous when combined with rain), so you can't go out without massive weather protection on, and massive boots, sometimes with spikes.
There are some things that are better there, like fantastic swimming pools, and it feels a lot less crowded with clean air.
But it really hit home when a friend bought a new bike back in April. I kept asking him how it was and he said he wouldn't be able to try it out for months because of all the gravel on the roads, it would just shred the tyres and damage the bike if he went out.
This is not to mention the massive heating bills, and high rates of illness; people are regularly off work for weeks.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
47C is predicted for parts of Iberia. Portugal has declared eight days of national emergency
47C is horrible wherever you are. If you haven’t got aircon and you can’t get to water you are in trouble
Climate emergency.
Emergency implies it can be fixed quickly.
It can't. 100 year project. And it's going to get worse. So only sensible immediate thing governments can do is put Aircon and refuges wherever they can.
Air conditioning is part of the problem. It has a positive feedback loop to it. The hotter it gets, the more air-conditioning, pouring out more heat in sweltering cities...
Never mind. I am sure all those opposed to Net Zero or denying climate change will be very welcoming to the climate refugees from Africa and the Middle East.
That's such Guardian clickbait bollocks.
All hot countries (that can afford it) have air conditioning. All of them. The alternative is people simply swelter and die.
Yes, they draw more power from the grid. You do it in parallel with decarbonising the grid, and moving to nuclear and renewables.
A lot of Spain remains non-air conditioned - especially older homes in the countryside and villages, where the populations are also likely to be older.
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
This is going to happen more and more I'm afraid.
Not much can be done other than to better mitigate against it. The world isn't going to get to Net Zero until about 2070 and then there will be 50+ years on top trying to claw back carbon and methane out again. So
The political will is just not there as we have some seen with some fruitcakes in the Tory leadership race abandoning the net zero aspiration.
Labour have also been very timid when it comes to the anthropogenic forcing of the climate. It's by far the biggest issue we have globally and hardly anyone is dong anything about it.
Things are changing with the younger generation but once again the wrinklies will screw the rest of us as they have done many times before.
Sighs...
The thing is, I see 'Net Zero' as a great opportunity. It is also a balancing act; if we go too fast towards it, it will be a disaster for the economy. But if we get the correct pace, it opens up so many opportunities.
BTW Murali, what are your views on what is happening in Sri Lanka atm?
Hopefully, this will be a catalyst to finally being the country together. I am hopeful but whether it will happen with the xenophobic Buddhist clergy calling the shots, who knows?
I hope so too. It still seems strange to read sentences like "xenophobic Buddhist clergy" when in the minds of many if not most in the West Buddhists are believed to be come all ye, love the world types.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
My wife and I are old, and have some lose screws but fortunately many of them are very secure and I would suggest the saying you 'cannot put old heads on young shoulders' is quite succinct
Mr. Leon, the question is, was Merkel amazingly incompetent, or helpful to Russia deliberately?
That could be the stupidly naive (tallying with her approach to immigration) view that being special friends with Russia is a good thing for influence and making Russia nicer, rather than nefarious. But dumb either way.
I think the UK could probably reach net zero with a massive expansion of wind power with little pain. But that won't please the hairshirts that want to see us suffer
problem with wind power is that wind can drop to nothing for long periods of time.
Which means going forward it's going to be great for things like car charging but it's not so great for things that require continual supply.
That's why you need a portfolio approach to energy, with lots of natural gas storage, plus some moderately efficient ways of storing excess wind and solar energy.
Mr. B, it's funny how certain things that seem like minor annoyances can also (if repeated or taken to extremes) be deadly serious.
Sleeping badly is one. Deny someone sleep indefinitely and they go insane and die. There's a very sad condition called Fatal Familial Insomnia that does that, but it's thankfully very rare.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
If this continues, inland Spain and Greece, and possibly southwest France and Sicily/S Italy, will empty out
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday
There are few places taken in the round so pleasant to live than the UK. Provided you have a few quid of course, which is true in most places but especially so here.
Yes, mild climate; 8 months of good weather if you live on the south coast. Plus, seasonal variety.
Eight months of good weather?! Lol
Chacun a son gout I guess
And that “seasonal variety” also means 3 months of dark cold grimness. And no climate change is going to make British winters less dark
I never realised how good the weather is in the south east of the UK until I spent large amounts of time in scandinavia. Their season of good weather is less than half of what we get in the UK. Then they have 8 months of miserable weather. Cold, wind, rain, ice, snow (occasionally beautiful but mostly hazardous when combined with rain), so you can't go out without massive weather protection on, and massive boots, sometimes with spikes.
There are some things that are better there, like fantastic swimming pools, and it feels a lot less crowded with clean air.
But it really hit home when a friend bought a new bike back in April. I kept asking him how it was and he said he wouldn't be able to try it out for months because of all the gravel on the roads, it would just shred the tyres and damage the bike if he went out.
This is not to mention the massive heating bills, and high rates of illness; people are regularly off work for weeks.
We are really lucky in this country.
Temperatures in southern England are pleasant, I agree. Especially as the overall climate warms up
But it is too grey and wet for me, and way too dark in the winter
I crave sunshine. It really affects my mood. I’ve spent the last 3 months in almost perpetual sunshine (because in part I’ve been able to choose where to go, in and around assignments); it has had, I believe, a notable positive influence on my mood (tho one can never be sure)
There was a north/south temperature divide in the forecast for this week . Even as far South as Merseyside, it was forecast to be eight degrees cooler. Plus we can rely on the relatively new saying ... A British summer - two hot days and a thunderstorm.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
Truss will be seen as "continuity Boris" with the endorsements she is supposedly getting today.
The same grubby Cabinet rallying round her. Not what is needed.
Yes, it could hinder her as much as help.
That said Mordaunt is probably a tad too short at present.
Constanze Stelzenmüller @ConStelz “Viele von uns waren ja völlig überrascht, als sie erfahren haben, dass nicht nur die Pipelines, sondern auch die Speicher im Besitz Russlands sind. Mir war das ebenfalls nicht klar. Einem Nationalen Sicherheitsrat wäre so etwas aufgefallen” (C. Heusgen) 😳
“Many of us were completely surprised when they found out that not only the pipelines but also the storage facilities are owned by Russia. I didn't realize that either. A National Security Council would have noticed something like that” (C. Heusgen) 😳
The biggest natural gas storage facilities in Germany are geological formations that used to contain... natural gas. The slight problem is that the field - Gronigen / Zechstein - straddles the Dutch-German border.
It's looking like a done deal. It's Mordaunt V Sunak with Maudaunt the likely winner. What a relief when the toady Johnson Cabinet "He got the big calls right' are never heard of again.
Truss is Starmer's dream but it's not going to happen. When Tory backbenchers think of Big Dog's last Cabinet their stomaches must churn and Truss Patel Zahawi and Raab were it's core with Dorries Rees Mogg and Braverman it's consiglieri.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
This is going to happen more and more I'm afraid.
Not much can be done other than to better mitigate against it. The world isn't going to get to Net Zero until about 2070 and then there will be 50+ years on top trying to claw back carbon and methane out again. So
The political will is just not there as we have some seen with some fruitcakes in the Tory leadership race abandoning the net zero aspiration.
Labour have also been very timid when it comes to the anthropogenic forcing of the climate. It's by far the biggest issue we have globally and hardly anyone is dong anything about it.
Things are changing with the younger generation but once again the wrinklies will screw the rest of us as they have done many times before.
Sighs...
The thing is, I see 'Net Zero' as a great opportunity. It is also a balancing act; if we go too fast towards it, it will be a disaster for the economy. But if we get the correct pace, it opens up so many opportunities.
BTW Murali, what are your views on what is happening in Sri Lanka atm?
Hopefully, this will be a catalyst to finally being the country together. I am hopeful but whether it will happen with the xenophobic Buddhist clergy calling the shots, who knows?
I hope so too. It still seems strange to read sentences like "xenophobic Buddhist clergy" when in the minds of many if not most in the West Buddhists are believed to be come all ye, love the world types.
I would have thought that Myanmars treatment of the Rohingya amongst others put paid to that a while back. There is an arsehole element in every population, and in some they will gain power.
I think the UK could probably reach net zero with a massive expansion of wind power with little pain. But that won't please the hairshirts that want to see us suffer
problem with wind power is that wind can drop to nothing for long periods of time.
Which means going forward it's going to be great for things like car charging but it's not so great for things that require continual supply.
That's why you need a portfolio approach to energy, with lots of natural gas storage, plus some moderately efficient ways of storing excess wind and solar energy.
Green hydrogen. Stored in depleted gas fields and the NTS. Maybe even some liquid hydrogen. OK, so the round trip efficiency isn't great, but if you are using surplus renewables to make it, so what?
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
If this continues, inland Spain and Greece, and possibly southwest France and Sicily/S Italy, will empty out
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday
There are few places taken in the round so pleasant to live than the UK. Provided you have a few quid of course, which is true in most places but especially so here.
Yes, mild climate; 8 months of good weather if you live on the south coast. Plus, seasonal variety.
Eight months of good weather?! Lol
Chacun a son gout I guess
And that “seasonal variety” also means 3 months of dark cold grimness. And no climate change is going to make British winters less dark
I never realised how good the weather is in the south east of the UK until I spent large amounts of time in scandinavia. Their season of good weather is less than half of what we get in the UK. Then they have 8 months of miserable weather. Cold, wind, rain, ice, snow (occasionally beautiful but mostly hazardous when combined with rain), so you can't go out without massive weather protection on, and massive boots, sometimes with spikes.
There are some things that are better there, like fantastic swimming pools, and it feels a lot less crowded with clean air.
But it really hit home when a friend bought a new bike back in April. I kept asking him how it was and he said he wouldn't be able to try it out for months because of all the gravel on the roads, it would just shred the tyres and damage the bike if he went out.
This is not to mention the massive heating bills, and high rates of illness; people are regularly off work for weeks.
We are really lucky in this country.
Temperatures in southern England are pleasant, I agree. Especially as the overall climate warms up
But it is too grey and wet for me, and way too dark in the winter
I crave sunshine. It really affects my mood. I’ve spent the last 3 months in almost perpetual sunshine (because in part I’ve been able to choose where to go, in and around assignments); it has had, I believe, a notable positive influence on my mood (tho one can never be sure)
We are all subject to hedonic adaptation. Even when you arrive at a perfect situation, something will creep in to make you miserable.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
47C is predicted for parts of Iberia. Portugal has declared eight days of national emergency
47C is horrible wherever you are. If you haven’t got aircon and you can’t get to water you are in trouble
Climate emergency.
Emergency implies it can be fixed quickly.
It can't. 100 year project. And it's going to get worse. So only sensible immediate thing governments can do is put Aircon and refuges wherever they can.
Air conditioning is part of the problem. It has a positive feedback loop to it. The hotter it gets, the more air-conditioning, pouring out more heat in sweltering cities...
Never mind. I am sure all those opposed to Net Zero or denying climate change will be very welcoming to the climate refugees from Africa and the Middle East.
But it’s practical. How else do you survive intense heat without aircon? We can’t all move to Oban overnight
The trick is to do more of the cooling with the passive stuff that doesn't need energy; the sort of architecture you have in places like Seville. Narrow twisty streets, thick whitewashed walls, trees and fountains. I miss my flat in Seville. Then you only need the odd bit of aircon at the extreme extremes.
It's the brute force "build any old rubbish, we can make it habitable with aircon" approach that's a problem.
PB embodying all that is good about this country with an extended discussion about the weather.
TBF we are facing a phenomenal spell of hot weather. If it verifies, it could be the hottest ever recorded in the UK - and our records go back further than anyone else’s - way back to the 17th-18th century
A thought on the Tory leadership contest is: Sunak and Truss were the clear frontrunners from Cabinet before this started. Yet most of the nomination process has been a case of a scramble for alternatives, which has gone far and wide. It seems unlikely to me that MPs will circle back to the two obvious choices after that.
Mr. Leon, the question is, was Merkel amazingly incompetent, or helpful to Russia deliberately?
That could be the stupidly naive (tallying with her approach to immigration) view that being special friends with Russia is a good thing for influence and making Russia nicer, rather than nefarious. But dumb either way.
I think we ascribe too much power to politicians.
German power companies need natural gas for their CCGTs. They will - as is their fiduciary duty to shareholders - look around for the cheapest gas around.
In almost all cases, that will come from someone close to you. Transporting gas (or coal or oil) halfway around the world is expensive. And is why all of Canada's energy exports flow to the US, even though the US is largely self sufficient now.
How do you ban German electricity companies from importing Russian gas?
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
Truss will be seen as "continuity Boris" with the endorsements she is supposedly getting today.
The same grubby Cabinet rallying round her. Not what is needed.
Yes, it could hinder her as much as help.
That said Mordaunt is probably a tad too short at present.
In the era of big personalities Mordaunt holds her own and outshines many if not every other candidate.
The question is will the Tory members see sense and choose Sunak who it could be argued is the safe pair of hands.
Reading FB comments from Continuity Boris Tories (we woz robbed, etc) the answer is emphatically no.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
If this continues, inland Spain and Greece, and possibly southwest France and Sicily/S Italy, will empty out
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday
There are few places taken in the round so pleasant to live than the UK. Provided you have a few quid of course, which is true in most places but especially so here.
Yes, mild climate; 8 months of good weather if you live on the south coast. Plus, seasonal variety.
Eight months of good weather?! Lol
Chacun a son gout I guess
And that “seasonal variety” also means 3 months of dark cold grimness. And no climate change is going to make British winters less dark
I never realised how good the weather is in the south east of the UK until I spent large amounts of time in scandinavia. Their season of good weather is less than half of what we get in the UK. Then they have 8 months of miserable weather. Cold, wind, rain, ice, snow (occasionally beautiful but mostly hazardous when combined with rain), so you can't go out without massive weather protection on, and massive boots, sometimes with spikes.
There are some things that are better there, like fantastic swimming pools, and it feels a lot less crowded with clean air.
But it really hit home when a friend bought a new bike back in April. I kept asking him how it was and he said he wouldn't be able to try it out for months because of all the gravel on the roads, it would just shred the tyres and damage the bike if he went out.
This is not to mention the massive heating bills, and high rates of illness; people are regularly off work for weeks.
We are really lucky in this country.
Temperatures in southern England are pleasant, I agree. Especially as the overall climate warms up
But it is too grey and wet for me, and way too dark in the winter
I crave sunshine. It really affects my mood. I’ve spent the last 3 months in almost perpetual sunshine (because in part I’ve been able to choose where to go, in and around assignments); it has had, I believe, a notable positive influence on my mood (tho one can never be sure)
We are all subject to hedonic adaptation. Even when you arrive at a perfect situation, something will creep in to make you miserable.
That’s very true
I’ve also considered the possibility that I’m in a highly benign mood because I’m constantly moving. Whenever I get bored or sullen I go to the next country. Works a treat
Maybe I simply have a gypsy heart and a hunter gathering soul. Maybe I should wander the earth for the rest of time. Like the proverbial Jew
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
"because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them. "
From my inexpert knowledge, it's much worse than that. Soviet, and then Russian, doctrine was to centralise everything. That was because centralising is more efficient; but mainly because it allows control. Their way of fighting could actually punish people on the ground who took initiative, even if the initiative went well.
Therefore you put the senior officers together, and in a place where they can control and micro-manage whatever happens on the ground. This makes them very tasty targets - and allegedly the Ukrainians have taken many senior officers out in one hit a few days ago.
The same with stores: if you have large dumps, then you can more easily control what goes out and to where, and therefore influence and control the fighting.
And the problem is that doctrine takes years to change and train out. A generation, perhaps.
PB embodying all that is good about this country with an extended discussion about the weather.
TBF we are facing a phenomenal spell of hot weather. If it verifies, it could be the hottest ever recorded in the UK - and our records go back further than anyone else’s - way back to the 17th-18th century
I believe the accuracy of 17th century temperature gauges was particularly impressive.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
I think it is reasonable to expect the next PM will be one of Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, and Tugendhat
The remaining candidates will hope for a cabinet position
Will anyone (I'm thinking of Hunt, but also applies to the Brexiteer crew) drop out early and endorse one of the top three - or will they hedge their bets / keep their powder dry ?
Any candidate who does has at least the potential to decide which of Morduant or Badenoch make the final two.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
This is going to happen more and more I'm afraid.
Not much can be done other than to better mitigate against it. The world isn't going to get to Net Zero until about 2070 and then there will be 50+ years on top trying to claw back carbon and methane out again. So
The political will is just not there as we have some seen with some fruitcakes in the Tory leadership race abandoning the net zero aspiration.
Labour have also been very timid when it comes to the anthropogenic forcing of the climate. It's by far the biggest issue we have globally and hardly anyone is dong anything about it.
Things are changing with the younger generation but once again the wrinklies will screw the rest of us as they have done many times before.
Sighs...
The thing is, I see 'Net Zero' as a great opportunity. It is also a balancing act; if we go too fast towards it, it will be a disaster for the economy. But if we get the correct pace, it opens up so many opportunities.
BTW Murali, what are your views on what is happening in Sri Lanka atm?
Hopefully, this will be a catalyst to finally being the country together. I am hopeful but whether it will happen with the xenophobic Buddhist clergy calling the shots, who knows?
I hope so too. It still seems strange to read sentences like "xenophobic Buddhist clergy" when in the minds of many if not most in the West Buddhists are believed to be come all ye, love the world types.
I would have thought that Myanmars treatment of the Rohingya amongst others put paid to that a while back. There is an arsehole element in every population, and in some they will gain power.
Yes that was shocking. Still not the popular image of Buddhists that said.
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
What actions would you be taking at the moment in this 'state of emergency' ?
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
There have been a number of tweeter threads regarding the state of Russian Military Logistics and every time I read them I ask myself - these are problems that were fixed 70 odd years ago in the west. I doesn't even take a spy to discover the secrets as you just need to watch a TV documentary on transport or warehousing to see the solution.
But in Russia (especially the Russian Army) Labour is cheap and technology isn't practical if you want to pocket a percentage of the cash..
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
If this continues, inland Spain and Greece, and possibly southwest France and Sicily/S Italy, will empty out
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday.
We moved to the SW of England last year. It was definitely the right choice.
I have lots of family, some with nice big houses, in the SW. Truro and Falmouth
Maybe I should move there with a bolt hole in Thailand for the winter
We all know about the holes you put your bolt in over in Thailand.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
Yes, I've trimmed my Mordaunt position a bit this morning.
Tugendhat won't make it either so I'm contemplating when to lay him down too.
Are you certain of that? He’s definitely going to get past the nomination stage and with Hunt possibly not, I’d say he’s fairly nailed to get past Round 1 as well. Once the competition proper starts who knows who grabs The Mo.
Tugendhat surely will lose in the members vote, unless Sunak makes the final two. I don't think so though as Mordaunt or Badenoch will consolidate the hardcore Brexiteer vote and be in the final two. Truss will flop fairly quickly.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
Truss will be seen as "continuity Boris" with the endorsements she is supposedly getting today.
The same grubby Cabinet rallying round her. Not what is needed.
We disagree on much, but you are one of the most sensible Conservatives on PB. (See also tidal power.)
Regarding heat, I live in a poorly insulated old house with solid walls and large, deep rooms. It is pleasantly cool all the time. No need/desire at all for air con.
The most difficult thing for us Brits, myself included, is resisting the temptation to throw open all the windows the moment the sun comes out on a hot day. The Italians have it right, keeping their homes dark, airless and gloomy during the day so that they can better sleep at night.
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
"because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them. "
From my inexpert knowledge, it's much worse than that. Soviet, and then Russian, doctrine was to centralise everything. That was because centralising is more efficient; but mainly because it allows control. Their way of fighting could actually punish people on the ground who took initiative, even if the initiative went well.
Therefore you put the senior officers together, and in a place where they can control and micro-manage whatever happens on the ground. This makes them very tasty targets - and allegedly the Ukrainians have taken many senior officers out in one hit a few days ago.
The same with stores: if you have large dumps, then you can more easily control what goes out and to where, and therefore influence and control the fighting.
And the problem is that doctrine takes years to change and train out. A generation, perhaps.
On the large depots front I've found one of the relevant threads I mentioned above/ below
In fact to gain an insight into the leadership election it is vital to read all the Continuity Boris threads on social media.
Ain't no way the rump Cons members are voting in anyone vaguely sane and I don't think there will be enough of the likes of @TSE rejoining in time to vote.
PB embodying all that is good about this country with an extended discussion about the weather.
TBF we are facing a phenomenal spell of hot weather. If it verifies, it could be the hottest ever recorded in the UK - and our records go back further than anyone else’s - way back to the 17th-18th century
I believe the accuracy of 17th century temperature gauges was particularly impressive.
“the Central England Temperature series, which covers the temperature from the south Midlands to Lancashire, is the longest-running record in the world, dating from 1659.”
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
If this continues, inland Spain and Greece, and possibly southwest France and Sicily/S Italy, will empty out
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday
To be fair, going to the Med in August was never that bright; it’s just that some people have to holiday at that time of year.
Wouldn’t be my choice, but: school holidays yes
You can go somewhere else. Central Europe is comparatively pleasant in the Summer. Having said that, last time I was in Kraków it was far too hot in June.
I’d head for higher parts of the south if holidaying in august. So you still probably get the sun but not the awful temps
The foothills of the Pyrenees, the alps, the Dolomites, the Balkans
Up the mountains, for sure, but many of the valleys in those areas are suntraps and not really much cooler than out on the plains. Whereas the shaded side of the valley is a miserable place to live since in winter or longer you don't get the sun at all.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
Truss will be seen as "continuity Boris" with the endorsements she is supposedly getting today.
The same grubby Cabinet rallying round her. Not what is needed.
We disagree on much, but you are one of the most sensible Conservatives on PB. (See also tidal power.)
PB embodying all that is good about this country with an extended discussion about the weather.
TBF we are facing a phenomenal spell of hot weather. If it verifies, it could be the hottest ever recorded in the UK - and our records go back further than anyone else’s - way back to the 17th-18th century
I believe the accuracy of 17th century temperature gauges was particularly impressive.
“the Central England Temperature series, which covers the temperature from the south Midlands to Lancashire, is the longest-running record in the world, dating from 1659.”
Mr. 1000, if gas is critical for Germany then you would have thought they would at least own their storage facilities.
On the plus side, the UK's no longer the most incompetent European nation when it comes to gas storage.
Germany has a lot more gas storage than the UK: 23 billion cubic meters vs (ah hem...) about 300 million cubic meters.
And the facilities are around 60% full. Germany is fine for gas until about February (assuming that Norwegian and North African pipeline flows to Europe are unaffected),.
Now, the Germans - if they were wise - would recognise that their best outcome is for Russia to be defeated quickly. So that they can avoid a situation where they run out of gas in the dead of winter. But they're like a deer in the headlights. They've done some smart things, like bringing mothballed coal capacity back on line. But they're also doing some very dumb thing, in particular continuing with the shutdown of three nuclear plants this year.
I'm quite sure that Mordaunt has the best chance of winning the next GE.
Sunak would do a solid job and probably get a Hung Parliament.
Truss will be a disaster electorally. If she does win, I think there is a serious chance that she gets deposed before the next GE. If the Conservatives are in a worse position in 12 months time I think there's every chance the MPs throw her out - especially if if it's clear she was only the MPs 2nd choice in the first place (which is likely to be the case). There would still then be plenty of time for a successor to take over pre GE.
The debate so far seems to focus on who is best placed to score cheap points off Labour.
That is a mistake in my opinion.
From my perspective the Tories need to find someone who can knock the Tory party into shape, get the support of (or dominate) the right and then put together a coherent and sound plan and withstand the uncommon storm.
If you frame the problem like that then inexperienced back benchers, with little achievement behind them look risky. Sunak also looks risky, because the right will not wear it. Truss looks more attractive.
I agree with your diagnosis but not with your solution. I think the only way the Tories stand any chance of rebuilding a right of centre consensus is by choosing someone who is not intimately associated with Johnson.
To my mind that excludes any of the former or current holders of senior cabinet positions (The Great offices of State) Truss, Sunak, Patel and probably Zahawi are all tainted. Less prominent cabinet members should be able to distance themselves from the stigma as would back benchers.
Also ignore Brexit as a dominant or even prominent issue in its own right. Stop the ideology and concentrate on the practical.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
47C is predicted for parts of Iberia. Portugal has declared eight days of national emergency
47C is horrible wherever you are. If you haven’t got aircon and you can’t get to water you are in trouble
Climate emergency.
Emergency implies it can be fixed quickly.
It can't. 100 year project. And it's going to get worse. So only sensible immediate thing governments can do is put Aircon and refuges wherever they can.
Air conditioning is part of the problem. It has a positive feedback loop to it. The hotter it gets, the more air-conditioning, pouring out more heat in sweltering cities...
Never mind. I am sure all those opposed to Net Zero or denying climate change will be very welcoming to the climate refugees from Africa and the Middle East.
But it’s practical. How else do you survive intense heat without aircon? We can’t all move to Oban overnight
The trick is to do more of the cooling with the passive stuff that doesn't need energy; the sort of architecture you have in places like Seville. Narrow twisty streets, thick whitewashed walls, trees and fountains. I miss my flat in Seville. Then you only need the odd bit of aircon at the extreme extremes.
It's the brute force "build any old rubbish, we can make it habitable with aircon" approach that's a problem.
Trees make a huge difference to street-level temperatures.
In fact to gain an insight into the leadership election it is vital to read all the Continuity Boris threads on social media.
Ain't no way the rump Cons members are voting in anyone vaguely sane and I don't think there will be enough of the likes of @TSE rejoining in time to vote.
Bet accordingly.
The chat on ConHome about Badenoch is absurd and all appears to stem from a single speech about critical race theory. The members seem too old and detached from the real world to appreciate that they are choosing someone to deal with the economy and world affairs.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
If this continues, inland Spain and Greece, and possibly southwest France and Sicily/S Italy, will empty out
We will start to see population movements within Europe, not just migrants from outside
It’s beginning to impinge personally. I’m possibly going to buy property abroad. For the first time I’m thinking: wait, what if it gets too hot?
I know friends who are now hesitating about booking two weeks in the Med in August. Because two weeks of 35-40C is not a holiday
To be fair, going to the Med in August was never that bright; it’s just that some people have to holiday at that time of year.
Wouldn’t be my choice, but: school holidays yes
You can go somewhere else. Central Europe is comparatively pleasant in the Summer. Having said that, last time I was in Kraków it was far too hot in June.
I’d head for higher parts of the south if holidaying in august. So you still probably get the sun but not the awful temps
The foothills of the Pyrenees, the alps, the Dolomites, the Balkans
Up the mountains, for sure, but many of the valleys in those areas are suntraps and not really much cooler than out on the plains. Whereas the shaded side of the valley is a miserable place to live since in winter or longer you don't get the sun at all.
Indeed. Bolzano - which is in a valley in the middle of the Dolomites - is often hotter than cities in southern Italy in summer. Stifling heat. The locals complain about if
On the other hand it is beautiful, with amazing food, a high quality of life, and they do have the mountains
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
What actions would you be taking at the moment in this 'state of emergency' ?
"Set up big fans in public places and have the healthy feckless workshy power them to keep decent people cool" - Suella Braverman
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
There have been a number of tweeter threads regarding the state of Russian Military Logistics and every time I read them I ask myself - these are problems that were fixed 70 odd years ago in the west. I doesn't even take a spy to discover the secrets as you just need to watch a TV documentary on transport or warehousing to see the solution.
But in Russia (especially the Russian Army) Labour is cheap and technology isn't practical if you want to pocket a percentage of the cash..
As I say below, AIUI it's not been fixed because it is the system working as it should. It's their doctrine. It worked well in 1942-45, so they've stuck with it. Heavy reliance on rail. Large dumps. Small, inefficient trucks transporting to units. Units being replenished at railheads.
Sadly for them, the world of warfighting has moved on.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
I think it is reasonable to expect the next PM will be one of Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, and Tugendhat
The remaining candidates will hope for a cabinet position
Will anyone (I'm thinking of Hunt, but also applies to the Brexiteer crew) drop out early and endorse one of the top three - or will they hedge their bets / keep their powder dry ?
Any candidate who does has at least the potential to decide which of Morduant or Badenoch make the final two.
Yes, I think the big question is what Braverman, Badenoch and Patel do, all fishing in a similar pond, all on 12-14 nominations. (Maybe add Zahawi in there too.)
PB embodying all that is good about this country with an extended discussion about the weather.
TBF we are facing a phenomenal spell of hot weather. If it verifies, it could be the hottest ever recorded in the UK - and our records go back further than anyone else’s - way back to the 17th-18th century
I believe the accuracy of 17th century temperature gauges was particularly impressive.
“the Central England Temperature series, which covers the temperature from the south Midlands to Lancashire, is the longest-running record in the world, dating from 1659.”
Partly, it was a bullet they fired hoping it would push the Tories into evicting the liar clown pronto, which didn't work and they are now stuck with.
Partly, the intention is to get every Tory MP's fingerprints - including the future leader and cabinet - on the decision to keep the liar clown in office through the summer. For Labour a lot rests on trying to spread the muck from the Johnson era over the lot of them, rather than allowing them another fake fresh start.
A week too late. The political story will be the first round of voting for our next PM, who is in, who is out...
Its purely to create stuff for leaflets. "Even at the end MP x backed Boris" or better still "Even after resigning and saying that Boris couldn't be trusted, MP x trusted Boris. What a hypocrite"
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
Truss will be seen as "continuity Boris" with the endorsements she is supposedly getting today.
The same grubby Cabinet rallying round her. Not what is needed.
We disagree on much, but you are one of the most sensible Conservatives on PB. (See also tidal power.)
'Sensible' and 'Tory' seems to be a contradiction in terms but he's far and away the most astute reader of all things Tory and has been since David H disappeared
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
The UK plan is a lot more than that, including bringing new fields online. But we are limited in what we can do in the immediate short term.
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
What actions would you be taking at the moment in this 'state of emergency' ?
At a minimum money and resource should be thrown at every non-gas generating source to ensure availability rates are as high as possible this winter. Both in terms of plant readiness and where applicable stores of raw material input.
Secondly it may just be possible in that timeframe to ensure some of the biomass generators can be requipped for coal.
Thirdly we should be signing term contracts for LNG supply underwritten by the UK government.
Fourthly, a state procurement exercise for fallback power sources (I.E. generators and batteries) for key services. Hospitals should already be covered but I am specifically thinking of schools and water supply. Where applicable combine with solar.
Fifthly, correcting some of the policy wrongs of the past, including removal of Vat for solar pv/battery storage.
Provide winter resilience for the several million properties that are off the gas grid and require power to operate oil fired boilers. Gas camp stoves with gas bottles for boiling water and food prep is a good start. Hot water bottles in an unheated house could conceivably save lives this winter.
And then there’s demand. Take off the shackles with a national building insulation programme. And draw up an industrial prioritisation list for nat gas (and power) in case rationing is required.
Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday
He held COBRA over a heatwave?
A similar heatwave in France a few years ago killed thousands of vulnerable people, esp the old in non air conditioned dwellings
So it’s very sensible. We’re not equipped for this heat
Hopefully the French have sorted out their game, because they could break records there as well - potentially going over 45C
Absolutely baking in Spain currently. Returning to the UK heatwave will be something of a relief! The Spanish are used to high temperatures, of course, but not this high. More worrying is the long-term decline in rainfall levels. That will make significant parts of the country uninhabitable. It’s been pretty dry in much of England this year, too.
47C is predicted for parts of Iberia. Portugal has declared eight days of national emergency
47C is horrible wherever you are. If you haven’t got aircon and you can’t get to water you are in trouble
Climate emergency.
Emergency implies it can be fixed quickly.
It can't. 100 year project. And it's going to get worse. So only sensible immediate thing governments can do is put Aircon and refuges wherever they can.
Air conditioning is part of the problem. It has a positive feedback loop to it. The hotter it gets, the more air-conditioning, pouring out more heat in sweltering cities...
Never mind. I am sure all those opposed to Net Zero or denying climate change will be very welcoming to the climate refugees from Africa and the Middle East.
But it’s practical. How else do you survive intense heat without aircon? We can’t all move to Oban overnight
The trick is to do more of the cooling with the passive stuff that doesn't need energy; the sort of architecture you have in places like Seville. Narrow twisty streets, thick whitewashed walls, trees and fountains. I miss my flat in Seville. Then you only need the odd bit of aircon at the extreme extremes.
It's the brute force "build any old rubbish, we can make it habitable with aircon" approach that's a problem.
Trees make a huge difference to street-level temperatures.
Ha, yes. There was a discussion about Livingston the other day. The hottest I have ever felt in a town was in Livingston. Very few trees, lots of asphalt.
PB embodying all that is good about this country with an extended discussion about the weather.
TBF we are facing a phenomenal spell of hot weather. If it verifies, it could be the hottest ever recorded in the UK - and our records go back further than anyone else’s - way back to the 17th-18th century
I believe the accuracy of 17th century temperature gauges was particularly impressive.
“the Central England Temperature series, which covers the temperature from the south Midlands to Lancashire, is the longest-running record in the world, dating from 1659.”
A week too late. The political story will be the first round of voting for our next PM, who is in, who is out...
Inclined to agree. Although Mr B2 makes a good point as well. I do think that the Labour party should be 'encouraging' the Tories to tear themselves apart. And while tax cuts sound 'pretty' and everybody likes a tax cut it's highly questionable as to whether they are the most advisable course of action at the moment.
Partly, it was a bullet they fired hoping it would push the Tories into evicting the liar clown pronto, which didn't work and they are now stuck with.
Partly, the intention is to get every Tory MP's fingerprints - including the future leader and cabinet - on the decision to keep the liar clown in office through the summer. For Labour a lot rests on trying to spread the muck from the Johnson era over the lot of them, rather than allowing them another fake fresh start.
There are a couple of candidates who would be a fresh start. Most though have backed every single decision that has been made Enthusiastically.
The one to watch on that front is Sunak. We already know that a war of wills broke out between Sunak and Johnson over spending and taxation. Both are blaming the other. What I expect is that not only will Sunak blame Johnson, he will produce the evidence to prove it.
The problem this causes for the other cabinet-level candidates is simple: they are/will attack Sunak because he is the lead contender. But in doing so they will inadvertently hitch themselves to Johnsonomics.
A question for Tory posters - especially some of the newer / lurker ones: is the desire for "we're Tories, lets cut taxes" big enough to override basic fiscal conservatism? The country cannot afford most of what most of the candidates are promising and they will likely be forced to scrap most of these should they become PM. Does that matter? Or is it biggest fairy story wins the contest?
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
What actions would you be taking at the moment in this 'state of emergency' ?
At a minimum money and resource should be thrown at every non-gas generating source to ensure availability rates are as high as possible this winter. Both in terms of plant readiness and where applicable stores of raw material input.
Secondly it may just be possible in that timeframe to ensure some of the biomass generators can be requipped for coal.
Thirdly we should be signing term contracts for LNG supply underwritten by the UK government.
Fourthly, a state procurement exercise for fallback power sources (I.E. generators and batteries) for key services. Hospitals should already be covered but I am specifically thinking of schools and water supply. Where applicable combine with solar.
Fifthly, correcting some of the policy wrongs of the past, including removal of Vat for solar pv/battery storage.
Provide winter resilience for the several million properties that are off the gas grid and require power to operate oil fired boilers. Gas camp stoves with gas bottles for boiling water and food prep is a good start. Hot water bottles in an unheated house could conceivably save lives this winter.
And then there’s demand. Take off the shackles with a national building insulation programme. And draw up an industrial prioritisation list for nat gas (and power) in case rationing is required.
I’m not an expert, I’m sure I’ve missed plenty.
We still have a few operational coal power stations. Importing a load of coal so they can be run flat out through the winter seems like a sensible precaution. We can then sit on the coal as an emergency reserve, AND supply all the steam railways who are in their own crisis.
I'm quite sure that Mordaunt has the best chance of winning the next GE.
Sunak would do a solid job and probably get a Hung Parliament.
Truss will be a disaster electorally. If she does win, I think there is a serious chance that she gets deposed before the next GE. If the Conservatives are in a worse position in 12 months time I think there's every chance the MPs throw her out - especially if if it's clear she was only the MPs 2nd choice in the first place (which is likely to be the case). There would still then be plenty of time for a successor to take over pre GE.
The debate so far seems to focus on who is best placed to score cheap points off Labour.
That is a mistake in my opinion.
From my perspective the Tories need to find someone who can knock the Tory party into shape, get the support of (or dominate) the right and then put together a coherent and sound plan and withstand the uncommon storm.
If you frame the problem like that then inexperienced back benchers, with little achievement behind them look risky. Sunak also looks risky, because the right will not wear it. Truss looks more attractive.
I agree with your diagnosis but not with your solution. I think the only way the Tories stand any chance of rebuilding a right of centre consensus is by choosing someone who is not intimately associated with Johnson.
To my mind that excludes any of the former or current holders of senior cabinet positions (The Great offices of State) Truss, Sunak, Patel and probably Zahawi are all tainted. Less prominent cabinet members should be able to distance themselves from the stigma as would back benchers.
Also ignore Brexit as a dominant or even prominent issue in its own right. Stop the ideology and concentrate on the practical.
I really can't get over the fact that the next couple of years will be brutal and will severely test a new leader. As soon as things get a bit tricky the sharks will circle. The new leader will also have to deal with that. It's not just about attacking Labour.
Johnson has shown that he can and will bring down a leader. Sunak is clearly in the cross hairs, he also owns much of the current crisis and with a FPN is hardly a fresh start. Picking him is a bad move.
A backbench/inexperienced leader will take two years to get up to speed. In the meantime they will be at the mercy of advisers and eviscerated by disgruntled big beasts. So don't pick Badenoch or Tugendhat. Mourdant probably also fits here. They are your new cabinet.
So who is left? Who can assert leadership, master a grumpy party and set a direction that will see the Tories through the storm?
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
What actions would you be taking at the moment in this 'state of emergency' ?
At a minimum money and resource should be thrown at every non-gas generating source to ensure availability rates are as high as possible this winter. Both in terms of plant readiness and where applicable stores of raw material input.
Secondly it may just be possible in that timeframe to ensure some of the biomass generators can be requipped for coal.
Thirdly we should be signing term contracts for LNG supply underwritten by the UK government.
Fourthly, a state procurement exercise for fallback power sources (I.E. generators and batteries) for key services. Hospitals should already be covered but I am specifically thinking of schools and water supply. Where applicable combine with solar.
Fifthly, correcting some of the policy wrongs of the past, including removal of Vat for solar pv/battery storage.
Provide winter resilience for the several million properties that are off the gas grid and require power to operate oil fired boilers. Gas camp stoves with gas bottles for boiling water and food prep is a good start. Hot water bottles in an unheated house could conceivably save lives this winter.
And then there’s demand. Take off the shackles with a national building insulation programme. And draw up an industrial prioritisation list for nat gas (and power) in case rationing is required.
I’m not an expert, I’m sure I’ve missed plenty.
That's an interesting list, thanks. But remember we are talking about problems that are six months away. That isn't a great deal of time.
For point 1:, we may already well be throwing resources at every non-gas generating source - it's just not sexy, so it doesn't get reported on. For instance, bringing forwards maintenance on our nukes to this summer, or ensuring the biomass stores at Drax are full.
For point 2:, where do we source the coal? If we are getting it from abroad, do we still have the trains required to take it from port to power station (coal traffic has virtually disappeared over the last twenty years, and the wagon stocks massively reduced). How easily can the biomass stations be reequipped for coal?
For point 3: this does seem rather like bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted. The time for such contracts was before the current crisis, not during it.
For point 5: will do sod-all for this winter as we will not be able to get enough new solar pv or batteries installed before winter.
Ditto an insulation program: that's far too long term for the immediate crisis.
My main thinking about these is that whilst they're good, the government could be doing them and they're not getting reported as they've 'boring'. Or they could be doing nothing...
I'm quite sure that Mordaunt has the best chance of winning the next GE.
Sunak would do a solid job and probably get a Hung Parliament.
Truss will be a disaster electorally. If she does win, I think there is a serious chance that she gets deposed before the next GE. If the Conservatives are in a worse position in 12 months time I think there's every chance the MPs throw her out - especially if if it's clear she was only the MPs 2nd choice in the first place (which is likely to be the case). There would still then be plenty of time for a successor to take over pre GE.
The debate so far seems to focus on who is best placed to score cheap points off Labour.
That is a mistake in my opinion.
From my perspective the Tories need to find someone who can knock the Tory party into shape, get the support of (or dominate) the right and then put together a coherent and sound plan and withstand the uncommon storm.
If you frame the problem like that then inexperienced back benchers, with little achievement behind them look risky. Sunak also looks risky, because the right will not wear it. Truss looks more attractive.
I agree with your diagnosis but not with your solution. I think the only way the Tories stand any chance of rebuilding a right of centre consensus is by choosing someone who is not intimately associated with Johnson.
To my mind that excludes any of the former or current holders of senior cabinet positions (The Great offices of State) Truss, Sunak, Patel and probably Zahawi are all tainted. Less prominent cabinet members should be able to distance themselves from the stigma as would back benchers.
Also ignore Brexit as a dominant or even prominent issue in its own right. Stop the ideology and concentrate on the practical.
I really can't get over the fact that the next couple of years will be brutal and will severely test a new leader. As soon as things get a bit tricky the sharks will circle. The new leader will also have to deal with that. It's not just about attacking Labour.
Johnson has shown that he can and will bring down a leader. Sunak is clearly in the cross hairs, he also owns much of the current crisis and with a FPN is hardly a fresh start. Picking him is a bad move.
A backbench/inexperienced leader will take two years to get up to speed. In the meantime they will be at the mercy of advisers and eviscerated by disgruntled big beasts. So don't pick Badenoch or Tugendhat. Mourdant probably also fits here.
So who is left? Who can assert leadership, master a grumpy party and set a direction that will see the Tories through the storm?
It is such an inauspicious time to become PM, I can't recall the country facing a darker future in my lifetime. I would guess that Truss comes closest to matching the moment but I think she will be a disastrous failure. Johnson will be lurking waiting for his Churchill-style second administration and is going to be merciless in tormenting his successor, I am certain of that.
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
What actions would you be taking at the moment in this 'state of emergency' ?
At a minimum money and resource should be thrown at every non-gas generating source to ensure availability rates are as high as possible this winter. Both in terms of plant readiness and where applicable stores of raw material input.
Secondly it may just be possible in that timeframe to ensure some of the biomass generators can be requipped for coal.
Thirdly we should be signing term contracts for LNG supply underwritten by the UK government.
Fourthly, a state procurement exercise for fallback power sources (I.E. generators and batteries) for key services. Hospitals should already be covered but I am specifically thinking of schools and water supply. Where applicable combine with solar.
Fifthly, correcting some of the policy wrongs of the past, including removal of Vat for solar pv/battery storage.
Provide winter resilience for the several million properties that are off the gas grid and require power to operate oil fired boilers. Gas camp stoves with gas bottles for boiling water and food prep is a good start. Hot water bottles in an unheated house could conceivably save lives this winter.
And then there’s demand. Take off the shackles with a national building insulation programme. And draw up an industrial prioritisation list for nat gas (and power) in case rationing is required.
I’m not an expert, I’m sure I’ve missed plenty.
We still have a few operational coal power stations. Importing a load of coal so they can be run flat out through the winter seems like a sensible precaution. We can then sit on the coal as an emergency reserve, AND supply all the steam railways who are in their own crisis.
As an aside: steam railways often use a different type of coal from that required for power stations - or at least to run at their best they do. Good, hard anthracite - e.g. Welsh steam coal - is brilliant. Power stations can be made to run on any old tat - witness Germany and its brown coal. That stuff would soon knacker our steam locos.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
Yes, I've trimmed my Mordaunt position a bit this morning.
Tugendhat won't make it either so I'm contemplating when to lay him down too.
Are you certain of that? He’s definitely going to get past the nomination stage and with Hunt possibly not, I’d say he’s fairly nailed to get past Round 1 as well. Once the competition proper starts who knows who grabs The Mo.
Tugendhat surely will lose in the members vote, unless Sunak makes the final two. I don't think so though as Mordaunt or Badenoch will consolidate the hardcore Brexiteer vote and be in the final two. Truss will flop fairly quickly.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
My wife and I are old, and have some lose screws but fortunately many of them are very secure and I would suggest the saying you 'cannot put old heads on young shoulders' is quite succinct
As is 'the fish rots from the head down'. I think there will be a strong desire to avoid one of Johnson's cabinet as next leader. Sunak is a possible exception to that, given his resignation, but Truss certainly isn't.
I'm quite sure that Mordaunt has the best chance of winning the next GE.
Sunak would do a solid job and probably get a Hung Parliament.
Truss will be a disaster electorally. If she does win, I think there is a serious chance that she gets deposed before the next GE. If the Conservatives are in a worse position in 12 months time I think there's every chance the MPs throw her out - especially if if it's clear she was only the MPs 2nd choice in the first place (which is likely to be the case). There would still then be plenty of time for a successor to take over pre GE.
The debate so far seems to focus on who is best placed to score cheap points off Labour.
That is a mistake in my opinion.
From my perspective the Tories need to find someone who can knock the Tory party into shape, get the support of (or dominate) the right and then put together a coherent and sound plan and withstand the uncommon storm.
If you frame the problem like that then inexperienced back benchers, with little achievement behind them look risky. Sunak also looks risky, because the right will not wear it. Truss looks more attractive.
I agree with your diagnosis but not with your solution. I think the only way the Tories stand any chance of rebuilding a right of centre consensus is by choosing someone who is not intimately associated with Johnson.
To my mind that excludes any of the former or current holders of senior cabinet positions (The Great offices of State) Truss, Sunak, Patel and probably Zahawi are all tainted. Less prominent cabinet members should be able to distance themselves from the stigma as would back benchers.
Also ignore Brexit as a dominant or even prominent issue in its own right. Stop the ideology and concentrate on the practical.
I really can't get over the fact that the next couple of years will be brutal and will severely test a new leader. As soon as things get a bit tricky the sharks will circle. The new leader will also have to deal with that. It's not just about attacking Labour.
Johnson has shown that he can and will bring down a leader. Sunak is clearly in the cross hairs, he also owns much of the current crisis and with a FPN is hardly a fresh start. Picking him is a bad move.
A backbench/inexperienced leader will take two years to get up to speed. In the meantime they will be at the mercy of advisers and eviscerated by disgruntled big beasts. So don't pick Badenoch or Tugendhat. Mourdant probably also fits here. They are your new cabinet.
So who is left? Who can assert leadership, master a grumpy party and set a direction that will see the Tories through the storm?
Who knows. We rarely get the metal of a politician before they are given power. The obvious exceptions are the ones who should never be allowed near power - Johnson, Trump, Patel, Raab etc. But for the rest you really can't say who will up their game until they are actually in the hot seat.
But in one way it doesn't matter. I am not interested in who will be the best person to win the next election. I am interested in who will be the best person to deal with the crisis of the next 2 years and do the right things even if it costs them the next election.
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
Russia's way of conducting war - shell, demolish, advance - only works when it has the advantage of range.
Robbed of that, they are stuffed.
Plus, Ukraine will have very precise details of the locations of these warehouses - both from satellite images but also a huge network of partisans.
Russia needs a serious rethink. Preferably from within its own borders.
I see Oryx has confirmed Russian tank losses at 865. Russian tank crews in Ukraine must now have significantly lower life expectancies than even WW2 U-boat crews.
So, in my humble opinion the UK is currently making the same mistake as Russia in this war. Failing to see a step ahead and acting proactively to counter the threat.
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
What actions would you be taking at the moment in this 'state of emergency' ?
At a minimum money and resource should be thrown at every non-gas generating source to ensure availability rates are as high as possible this winter. Both in terms of plant readiness and where applicable stores of raw material input.
Secondly it may just be possible in that timeframe to ensure some of the biomass generators can be requipped for coal.
Thirdly we should be signing term contracts for LNG supply underwritten by the UK government.
Fourthly, a state procurement exercise for fallback power sources (I.E. generators and batteries) for key services. Hospitals should already be covered but I am specifically thinking of schools and water supply. Where applicable combine with solar.
Fifthly, correcting some of the policy wrongs of the past, including removal of Vat for solar pv/battery storage.
Provide winter resilience for the several million properties that are off the gas grid and require power to operate oil fired boilers. Gas camp stoves with gas bottles for boiling water and food prep is a good start. Hot water bottles in an unheated house could conceivably save lives this winter.
And then there’s demand. Take off the shackles with a national building insulation programme. And draw up an industrial prioritisation list for nat gas (and power) in case rationing is required.
I’m not an expert, I’m sure I’ve missed plenty.
We still have a few operational coal power stations. Importing a load of coal so they can be run flat out through the winter seems like a sensible precaution. We can then sit on the coal as an emergency reserve, AND supply all the steam railways who are in their own crisis.
As an aside: steam railways often use a different type of coal from that required for power stations - or at least to run at their best they do. Good, hard anthracite - e.g. Welsh steam coal - is brilliant. Power stations can be made to run on any old tat - witness Germany and its brown coal. That stuff would soon knacker our steam locos.
I am standing by for a Tory leadership contender to announce a return to steam traction on our railways. It would be so on-brand.
Regarding heat, I live in a poorly insulated old house with solid walls and large, deep rooms. It is pleasantly cool all the time. No need/desire at all for air con.
The most difficult thing for us Brits, myself included, is resisting the temptation to throw open all the windows the moment the sun comes out on a hot day. The Italians have it right, keeping their homes dark, airless and gloomy during the day so that they can better sleep at night.
Open windows at night, then shut and draw blinds in the day.
As per normal, because of my poor English I have to correct a misunderstanding of one of my posts yesterday. I seem to need to do this every day. I'm blaming using a phone to post and nothing to do with my incompetence. Sorry for the delay in responding but I'm only just back.
So @dixiedean I wasn't suggesting Comprehensives don't stream. I agree with you and I don't know any that don't. My point was that because they stream and set classes they provide the same benefits of grammars except it is ongoing and not some crude cut off at 11 which also doesn't allow for kids who might be bright in some subjects and rubbish in others and also doesn't allow for kids who might be late starters or who have peaked early.
My experience of this in the early 60s was traumatic and although this wouldn't happen today to this extent, I was excluded from languages and literature and had to do completely inappropriate subjects (practical ones for which I had no talent) because I was a late academic starter (although my maths ability was always there, but as an awkward youngster it wasn't spotted eg I refused to learn times tables as I thought it pointless). My failure to learn a language is something I have always regretted.
@Sandpit you came up with a very interesting idea about doing grammars in reverse. That is selecting the bottom 10%. I find this very interesting. An obvious gut reaction is that it is the same problem, but if done well and with specific resources and one to one focus I think this could be a clever idea.
In fact to gain an insight into the leadership election it is vital to read all the Continuity Boris threads on social media.
Ain't no way the rump Cons members are voting in anyone vaguely sane and I don't think there will be enough of the likes of @TSE rejoining in time to vote.
Bet accordingly.
The chat on ConHome about Badenoch is absurd and all appears to stem from a single speech about critical race theory. The members seem too old and detached from the real world to appreciate that they are choosing someone to deal with the economy and world affairs.
Putting this to the members will end in tears I predict.
Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
Partly, it was a bullet they fired hoping it would push the Tories into evicting the liar clown pronto, which didn't work and they are now stuck with.
Partly, the intention is to get every Tory MP's fingerprints - including the future leader and cabinet - on the decision to keep the liar clown in office through the summer. For Labour a lot rests on trying to spread the muck from the Johnson era over the lot of them, rather than allowing them another fake fresh start.
There are a couple of candidates who would be a fresh start. Most though have backed every single decision that has been made Enthusiastically.
The one to watch on that front is Sunak. We already know that a war of wills broke out between Sunak and Johnson over spending and taxation. Both are blaming the other. What I expect is that not only will Sunak blame Johnson, he will produce the evidence to prove it.
The problem this causes for the other cabinet-level candidates is simple: they are/will attack Sunak because he is the lead contender. But in doing so they will inadvertently hitch themselves to Johnsonomics.
A question for Tory posters - especially some of the newer / lurker ones: is the desire for "we're Tories, lets cut taxes" big enough to override basic fiscal conservatism? The country cannot afford most of what most of the candidates are promising and they will likely be forced to scrap most of these should they become PM. Does that matter? Or is it biggest fairy story wins the contest?
I am very uneasy with the race to see who can cut taxes the most and quickest
It is therefore incumbent on responsible conservatives to endorse Sunak's approach but I am content with Mordaunt as she is only suggesting cuts in fuel duty, but more importantly is a fresh face and one that could change the narrative for the party
Partly, it was a bullet they fired hoping it would push the Tories into evicting the liar clown pronto, which didn't work and they are now stuck with.
Partly, the intention is to get every Tory MP's fingerprints - including the future leader and cabinet - on the decision to keep the liar clown in office through the summer. For Labour a lot rests on trying to spread the muck from the Johnson era over the lot of them, rather than allowing them another fake fresh start.
It's a no lose policy for Labour
Anyone voting for Bozo to remain can be blamed for Bozo being there. And there are a whole pile of things Bozo can no longer do because he can't do anything that has financial consequences due to the fact he isn't really in power anymore.
Then there is the possibility that Labour know something embarrassing is going to appear - like more details regarding his visit to see Evgeny Lebedev when Foreign Secretary.
So every Tory MP voting to keep Bozo in power is voting on the hope that nothing embarrassing is going to occur in the next 7 weeks.
Constanze Stelzenmüller @ConStelz “Viele von uns waren ja völlig überrascht, als sie erfahren haben, dass nicht nur die Pipelines, sondern auch die Speicher im Besitz Russlands sind. Mir war das ebenfalls nicht klar. Einem Nationalen Sicherheitsrat wäre so etwas aufgefallen” (C. Heusgen) 😳
“Many of us were completely surprised when they found out that not only the pipelines but also the storage facilities are owned by Russia. I didn't realize that either. A National Security Council would have noticed something like that” (C. Heusgen) 😳
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
Truss will be seen as "continuity Boris" with the endorsements she is supposedly getting today.
The same grubby Cabinet rallying round her. Not what is needed.
We disagree on much, but you are one of the most sensible Conservatives on PB. (See also tidal power.)
'Sensible' and 'Tory' seems to be a contradiction in terms but he's far and away the most astute reader of all things Tory and has been since David H disappeared
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree on the first part (off-chance Hunt makes the first round?) but where their supporters go may be trickier to guess.
More will head to Sunak than Mordaunt would like I think. Of the 3 front runners I think she's in the weakest position once we're into the contest proper.
That's my least confident prediction though
Yes, it will be Sunak vs Truss for the members and the members will choose Truss because the majority of Tory members have a couple of screws loose up here (caused by old age or otherwise)!
Truss will be seen as "continuity Boris" with the endorsements she is supposedly getting today.
The same grubby Cabinet rallying round her. Not what is needed.
Yes, it could hinder her as much as help.
That said Mordaunt is probably a tad too short at present.
In the era of big personalities Mordaunt holds her own and outshines many if not every other candidate.
The question is will the Tory members see sense and choose Sunak who it could be argued is the safe pair of hands.
Reading FB comments from Continuity Boris Tories (we woz robbed, etc) the answer is emphatically no.
Sunak could conceivably beat Mordaunt in the members vote if the Wokery is huge round her neck, and he counters it.
I'm quite sure that Mordaunt has the best chance of winning the next GE.
Sunak would do a solid job and probably get a Hung Parliament.
Truss will be a disaster electorally. If she does win, I think there is a serious chance that she gets deposed before the next GE. If the Conservatives are in a worse position in 12 months time I think there's every chance the MPs throw her out - especially if if it's clear she was only the MPs 2nd choice in the first place (which is likely to be the case). There would still then be plenty of time for a successor to take over pre GE.
The debate so far seems to focus on who is best placed to score cheap points off Labour.
That is a mistake in my opinion.
From my perspective the Tories need to find someone who can knock the Tory party into shape, get the support of (or dominate) the right and then put together a coherent and sound plan and withstand the uncommon storm.
If you frame the problem like that then inexperienced back benchers, with little achievement behind them look risky. Sunak also looks risky, because the right will not wear it. Truss looks more attractive.
I agree with your diagnosis but not with your solution. I think the only way the Tories stand any chance of rebuilding a right of centre consensus is by choosing someone who is not intimately associated with Johnson.
To my mind that excludes any of the former or current holders of senior cabinet positions (The Great offices of State) Truss, Sunak, Patel and probably Zahawi are all tainted. Less prominent cabinet members should be able to distance themselves from the stigma as would back benchers.
Also ignore Brexit as a dominant or even prominent issue in its own right. Stop the ideology and concentrate on the practical.
I really can't get over the fact that the next couple of years will be brutal and will severely test a new leader. As soon as things get a bit tricky the sharks will circle. The new leader will also have to deal with that. It's not just about attacking Labour.
Johnson has shown that he can and will bring down a leader. Sunak is clearly in the cross hairs, he also owns much of the current crisis and with a FPN is hardly a fresh start. Picking him is a bad move.
A backbench/inexperienced leader will take two years to get up to speed. In the meantime they will be at the mercy of advisers and eviscerated by disgruntled big beasts. So don't pick Badenoch or Tugendhat. Mourdant probably also fits here. They are your new cabinet.
So who is left? Who can assert leadership, master a grumpy party and set a direction that will see the Tories through the storm?
Who knows. We rarely get the metal of a politician before they are given power. The obvious exceptions are the ones who should never be allowed near power - Johnson, Trump, Patel, Raab etc. But for the rest you really can't say who will up their game until they are actually in the hot seat.
But in one way it doesn't matter. I am not interested in who will be the best person to win the next election. I am interested in who will be the best person to deal with the crisis of the next 2 years and do the right things even if it costs them the next election.
A fair point, but the spectacular lack of experience of some of the front runners is really remarkable. The sort of person you might just about consider as LotO after a big defeat to rebuild a lost party, but the sort of experience to chuck someone into the current fire. It's a huuuuuge gamble for the party and the country.
Having seen Tories here get excited by a couple of new names, I was motivated to read up on them and take them seriously. But the more I looked, the less there was. So the gamble remains from my POV.
Comments
There are some things that are better there, like fantastic swimming pools, and it feels a lot less crowded with clean air.
But it really hit home when a friend bought a new bike back in April. I kept asking him how it was and he said he wouldn't be able to try it out for months because of all the gravel on the roads, it would just shred the tyres and damage the bike if he went out.
This is not to mention the massive heating bills, and high rates of illness; people are regularly off work for weeks.
We are really lucky in this country.
Essentially these warehouses are sitting ducks because the Russians don't have the capability to disperse them.
We are now at the stage where Russia seems to have shot its bolt and to have little meaningful in reserve while the Ukrainians will be receiving more equipment. Partisan activity also seems to be stepping up.
Give it 6-8 weeks and Russia is going to be in serious trouble.
That could be the stupidly naive (tallying with her approach to immigration) view that being special friends with Russia is a good thing for influence and making Russia nicer, rather than nefarious. But dumb either way.
Sleeping badly is one. Deny someone sleep indefinitely and they go insane and die. There's a very sad condition called Fatal Familial Insomnia that does that, but it's thankfully very rare.
But it is too grey and wet for me, and way too dark in the winter
I crave sunshine. It really affects my mood. I’ve spent the last 3 months in almost perpetual sunshine (because in part I’ve been able to choose where to go, in and around assignments); it has had, I believe, a notable positive influence on my mood (tho one can never be sure)
That said Mordaunt is probably a tad too short at present.
Truss is Starmer's dream but it's not going to happen. When Tory backbenchers think of Big Dog's last Cabinet their stomaches must churn and Truss Patel Zahawi and Raab were it's core with Dorries Rees Mogg and Braverman it's consiglieri.
Best for Labour: Badenough
I've spent a good hour thinking of those!
Even when you arrive at a perfect situation, something will creep in to make you miserable.
It's the brute force "build any old rubbish, we can make it habitable with aircon" approach that's a problem.
German power companies need natural gas for their CCGTs. They will - as is their fiduciary duty to shareholders - look around for the cheapest gas around.
In almost all cases, that will come from someone close to you. Transporting gas (or coal or oil) halfway around the world is expensive. And is why all of Canada's energy exports flow to the US, even though the US is largely self sufficient now.
How do you ban German electricity companies from importing Russian gas?
If Liz gets the gig, DD will go far.
The question is will the Tory members see sense and choose Sunak who it could be argued is the safe pair of hands.
Reading FB comments from Continuity Boris Tories (we woz robbed, etc) the answer is emphatically no.
I’ve also considered the possibility that I’m in a highly benign mood because I’m constantly moving. Whenever I get bored or sullen I go to the next country. Works a treat
Maybe I simply have a gypsy heart and a hunter gathering soul. Maybe I should wander the earth for the rest of time. Like the proverbial Jew
As Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield go down the toilet, we will be passing through autumn. Conceivably we might see the Crimea Bridge destroyed in that time frame.
What does Putin have left at that point? The natural gas weapon. European gas exports are just 3-4% of total Russian exports and in the medium term Europe are openly saying they’ll stop buying anyway. It’s a very low cost card for Putin to play, at a time his own position will be very weak indeed.
As best I can tell, the UK’s plan is: turn off the gas interconnector to Europe. Which fails to acknowledge that Norway could well respond to that by diverting a large part of our supply to mainland Europe directly.
We should be preparing for this winter with a state of emergency equivalent to building spitfires in ‘39-40. Instead we have a bunch of preening peacocks spending the whole summer coming up with ever more ridiculous tax cut boasts rather than consolidating around one candidate and doing everything possible to prepare for what might be a severe national crisis this winter.
From my inexpert knowledge, it's much worse than that. Soviet, and then Russian, doctrine was to centralise everything. That was because centralising is more efficient; but mainly because it allows control. Their way of fighting could actually punish people on the ground who took initiative, even if the initiative went well.
Therefore you put the senior officers together, and in a place where they can control and micro-manage whatever happens on the ground. This makes them very tasty targets - and allegedly the Ukrainians have taken many senior officers out in one hit a few days ago.
The same with stores: if you have large dumps, then you can more easily control what goes out and to where, and therefore influence and control the fighting.
And the problem is that doctrine takes years to change and train out. A generation, perhaps.
Africa (Tunisia, I think) was one of the main breadbaskets of the Roman Empire before desertification came in.
Any candidate who does has at least the potential to decide which of Morduant or Badenoch make the final two.
On the plus side, the UK's no longer the most incompetent European nation when it comes to gas storage.
But in Russia (especially the Russian Army) Labour is cheap and technology isn't practical if you want to pocket a percentage of the cash..
(See also tidal power.)
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544495879884886017
Basically imagine 19th century logistics because Labour is cheap..
A week too late. The political story will be the first round of voting for our next PM, who is in, who is out...
Ain't no way the rump Cons members are voting in anyone vaguely sane and I don't think there will be enough of the likes of @TSE rejoining in time to vote.
Bet accordingly.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/sep/03/weather.features11
And the facilities are around 60% full. Germany is fine for gas until about February (assuming that Norwegian and North African pipeline flows to Europe are unaffected),.
Now, the Germans - if they were wise - would recognise that their best outcome is for Russia to be defeated quickly. So that they can avoid a situation where they run out of gas in the dead of winter. But they're like a deer in the headlights. They've done some smart things, like bringing mothballed coal capacity back on line. But they're also doing some very dumb thing, in particular continuing with the shutdown of three nuclear plants this year.
To my mind that excludes any of the former or current holders of senior cabinet positions (The Great offices of State) Truss, Sunak, Patel and probably Zahawi are all tainted. Less prominent cabinet members should be able to distance themselves from the stigma as would back benchers.
Also ignore Brexit as a dominant or even prominent issue in its own right. Stop the ideology and concentrate on the practical.
On the other hand it is beautiful, with amazing food, a high quality of life, and they do have the mountains
Sadly for them, the world of warfighting has moved on.
Partly, the intention is to get every Tory MP's fingerprints - including the future leader and cabinet - on the decision to keep the liar clown in office through the summer. For Labour a lot rests on trying to spread the muck from the Johnson era over the lot of them, rather than allowing them another fake fresh start.
I agree entirely our own storage is absolutely pathetic and should be ramped up.
Secondly it may just be possible in that timeframe to ensure some of the biomass generators can be requipped for coal.
Thirdly we should be signing term contracts for LNG supply underwritten by the UK government.
Fourthly, a state procurement exercise for fallback power sources (I.E. generators and batteries) for key services. Hospitals should already be covered but I am specifically thinking of schools and water supply. Where applicable combine with solar.
Fifthly, correcting some of the policy wrongs of the past, including removal of Vat for solar pv/battery storage.
Provide winter resilience for the several million properties that are off the gas grid and require power to operate oil fired boilers. Gas camp stoves with gas bottles for boiling water and food prep is a good start. Hot water bottles in an unheated house could conceivably save lives this winter.
And then there’s demand. Take off the shackles with a national building insulation programme. And draw up an industrial prioritisation list for nat gas (and power) in case rationing is required.
I’m not an expert, I’m sure I’ve missed plenty.
There was a discussion about Livingston the other day. The hottest I have ever felt in a town was in Livingston. Very few trees, lots of asphalt.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermometer
I do think that the Labour party should be 'encouraging' the Tories to tear themselves apart.
And while tax cuts sound 'pretty' and everybody likes a tax cut it's highly questionable as to whether they are the most advisable course of action at the moment.
The one to watch on that front is Sunak. We already know that a war of wills broke out between Sunak and Johnson over spending and taxation. Both are blaming the other. What I expect is that not only will Sunak blame Johnson, he will produce the evidence to prove it.
The problem this causes for the other cabinet-level candidates is simple: they are/will attack Sunak because he is the lead contender. But in doing so they will inadvertently hitch themselves to Johnsonomics.
A question for Tory posters - especially some of the newer / lurker ones: is the desire for "we're Tories, lets cut taxes" big enough to override basic fiscal conservatism? The country cannot afford most of what most of the candidates are promising and they will likely be forced to scrap most of these should they become PM. Does that matter? Or is it biggest fairy story wins the contest?
Matt Chorley
@MattChorley
One veteran Tory on the unpredictability and unreliability of MPs at this stage in the leadership contest:
"People lie. They chop and change. The c***-o-meter is right up at the very top."
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1546749579919593472
Johnson has shown that he can and will bring down a leader. Sunak is clearly in the cross hairs, he also owns much of the current crisis and with a FPN is hardly a fresh start. Picking him is a bad move.
A backbench/inexperienced leader will take two years to get up to speed. In the meantime they will be at the mercy of advisers and eviscerated by disgruntled big beasts. So don't pick Badenoch or Tugendhat. Mourdant probably also fits here. They are your new cabinet.
So who is left? Who can assert leadership, master a grumpy party and set a direction that will see the Tories through the storm?
Net result no change
For point 1:, we may already well be throwing resources at every non-gas generating source - it's just not sexy, so it doesn't get reported on. For instance, bringing forwards maintenance on our nukes to this summer, or ensuring the biomass stores at Drax are full.
For point 2:, where do we source the coal? If we are getting it from abroad, do we still have the trains required to take it from port to power station (coal traffic has virtually disappeared over the last twenty years, and the wagon stocks massively reduced). How easily can the biomass stations be reequipped for coal?
For point 3: this does seem rather like bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted. The time for such contracts was before the current crisis, not during it.
For point 5: will do sod-all for this winter as we will not be able to get enough new solar pv or batteries installed before winter.
Ditto an insulation program: that's far too long term for the immediate crisis.
My main thinking about these is that whilst they're good, the government could be doing them and they're not getting reported as they've 'boring'. Or they could be doing nothing...
Field day in HoC reviewing bojo recent history including lebedev
Establish continuity between bojo and successor
Look as if they are doing something
And so, we ignore your posts.
I think there will be a strong desire to avoid one of Johnson's cabinet as next leader. Sunak is a possible exception to that, given his resignation, but Truss certainly isn't.
But in one way it doesn't matter. I am not interested in who will be the best person to win the next election. I am interested in who will be the best person to deal with the crisis of the next 2 years and do the right things even if it costs them the next election.
"I demand a ham sandwich!" he said, in between taking bites of his ham sandwich.
So @dixiedean I wasn't suggesting Comprehensives don't stream. I agree with you and I don't know any that don't. My point was that because they stream and set classes they provide the same benefits of grammars except it is ongoing and not some crude cut off at 11 which also doesn't allow for kids who might be bright in some subjects and rubbish in others and also doesn't allow for kids who might be late starters or who have peaked early.
My experience of this in the early 60s was traumatic and although this wouldn't happen today to this extent, I was excluded from languages and literature and had to do completely inappropriate subjects (practical ones for which I had no talent) because I was a late academic starter (although my maths ability was always there, but as an awkward youngster it wasn't spotted eg I refused to learn times tables as I thought it pointless). My failure to learn a language is something I have always regretted.
@Sandpit you came up with a very interesting idea about doing grammars in reverse. That is selecting the bottom 10%. I find this very interesting. An obvious gut reaction is that it is the same problem, but if done well and with specific resources and one to one focus I think this could be a clever idea.
I was happy to lay him at 20-25s and back him a little bit at 80s-90s.
Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter
https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1546756685502578689
It is therefore incumbent on responsible conservatives to endorse Sunak's approach but I am content with Mordaunt as she is only suggesting cuts in fuel duty, but more importantly is a fresh face and one that could change the narrative for the party
Anyone voting for Bozo to remain can be blamed for Bozo being there. And there are a whole pile of things Bozo can no longer do because he can't do anything that has financial consequences due to the fact he isn't really in power anymore.
Then there is the possibility that Labour know something embarrassing is going to appear - like more details regarding his visit to see Evgeny Lebedev when Foreign Secretary.
So every Tory MP voting to keep Bozo in power is voting on the hope that nothing embarrassing is going to occur in the next 7 weeks.
https://ultimateclassicrock.com/jimi-hendrix-guitar-fire/
Having seen Tories here get excited by a couple of new names, I was motivated to read up on them and take them seriously. But the more I looked, the less there was. So the gamble remains from my POV.