The Treasury (not faultless of course) believes that the historic corporation tax cuts were simply banked by businesses, who continued to avoid capital investment.
So Rishi announced he would put them up and put in some heavy incentives to invest instead.
Hunt will be aware of this (he’s not stupid) but he needs aggressive tax-cutting policies to woo a skeptical electorate. It’s incredibly irresponsible, but this is why I suggested a May interregnum and an opportunity for everyone to cool down.
What we are seeing is a bonfire of the scraps of fiscal sobriety that even Boris maintained.
It also gives Starmer space to run to the left of the Tories without going into "frightens the horses" territory.
If anyone other than Rishi wins it's looking like there is going to have to be a massive rise in interest rates.
Not sure about that, tbh. Although personally, I think 5/6% would be a sensible rate to have, now. Even if if they have to put it down again, next year.
In reality, central bankers - and the bond market, is (still) looking through the current inflation and predicting a global recession. BoE logic is still firmly on the side of keeping rates low.
I don’t think a change of Tory leader/spending/tax policy changes that calculation much.
If the Fed goes for another 75bp this month, which they show every sign of doing, then the O&G imports get more expensive in Sterling, unless the BoE follow the Fed.
As I bid goodnight, may I just say how much I'm enjoying the (impending) Tory Civil War? Let's hope it lasts at least a couple of years.
If they were in Opposition, I might share your hopes.
But they're not.
For the good of country it needs to be sorted in a fortnight.
To hell with the members in other words.
Why put the governance of the country on hold for 2 months in order just to indulge the whims of Conservative members, while denying anyone else a say?
Are red wall MPs really going to get behind cuts to corporation tax? They are surely a substantial part of the MP electorate.
The redwall is probably mostly lost back to Labour anyway post Boris and now Brexit is done.
Best Tories can hope for is a 1992 or 2015 style scraped majority
Yep.
To be fair, any government going for a 5th election victory in a row would bit your hand off for a 1992/2015 victory.
The last time a party won 5 elections in a row was the Tories in 1900, however during those 5 elections they still ended up with Liberal PM on a couple of occasions, the last time a party won 5 straight elections without interruption of a different parties PM was 1830
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
If anyone other than Rishi wins it's looking like there is going to have to be a massive rise in interest rates.
Not sure about that, tbh. Although personally, I think 5/6% would be a sensible rate to have, now. Even if if they have to put it down again, next year.
In reality, central bankers - and the bond market, is (still) looking through the current inflation and predicting a global recession. BoE logic is still firmly on the side of keeping rates low.
I don’t think a change of Tory leader/spending/tax policy changes that calculation much.
If the Fed goes for another 75bp this month, which they show every sign of doing, then the O&G imports get more expensive in Sterling, unless the BoE follow the Fed.
The BoE have been embarrassingly limp wristed on this. They need to go big or go home because they're actively contributing to inflation at this point.
As I bid goodnight, may I just say how much I'm enjoying the (impending) Tory Civil War? Let's hope it lasts at least a couple of years.
If they were in Opposition, I might share your hopes.
But they're not.
For the good of country it needs to be sorted in a fortnight.
To hell with the members in other words.
Why put the governance of the country on hold for 2 months in order just to indulge the whims of Conservative members, while denying anyone else a say?
Labour could have given members a say in 2007, it was its choice to crown Brown PM without a contest or anyone else having a say. That of course worked out brilliantly, as did electing May PM without a membership vote in 2016
Mr Javid reels off the cost of each measure and says he would fund the package from a mixture of the £32 billion fiscal headroom forecast to be available by 2024-25, and an efficiency savings programme that would see 1 per cent cut from all Whitehall spending, including on the NHS.
"Efficiency savings". CALLED IT!
That’s an 11% cut once 2022’s inflation is taken into account. By the time you get to 2024 that will be a 20-30% cut…
And our real situation is way worse than the public position which is why Rishi isn’t talking about tax cuts because they aren’t possible.
I’m not sure I understand, health Secretary last weekend, knows there’s more than 12 million people waiting in a backlog, many in pain, some might die because of size of backlog, is proposing cutting the NHS so his party can get re-elected? Is that right?
Mr Javid reels off the cost of each measure and says he would fund the package from a mixture of the £32 billion fiscal headroom forecast to be available by 2024-25, and an efficiency savings programme that would see 1 per cent cut from all Whitehall spending, including on the NHS.
"Efficiency savings". CALLED IT!
That’s an 11% cut once 2022’s inflation is taken into account. By the time you get to 2024 that will be a 20-30% cut…
And our real situation is way worse than the public position which is why Rishi isn’t talking about tax cuts because they aren’t possible.
I’m not sure I understand, health Secretary last weekend, knows there’s more than 12 million people waiting in a backlog, many in pain, many dying because of size of backlog, is proposing cutting the NHS so his party can get re-elected? Is that right?
Correct. What’s more the competition is happening at such haste, he won’t even be called on it.
According to the Times, Boris proposed to put Nadine in the House of Lords.
By-election in Bedfordshire klaxon.
By election in Selby & Ainsty as well.
Nigel Adams, whom enemies accuse of persuading Johnson to employ Pincher, a drinking partner of his, has been telling friends he will get a peerage. Nadine Dorries is also expected to go to the Lords and revert to writing novels.
I would fear for the very foundations of the British constitution if an outgoing, raging-against-the-dying-of-the-light, PM did not promote a few slavish cult flunkies to the HoL.
So much for all that 'the loyalists(in fact, new rebels) will fight on and Boris make a comeback' talk if he is going to install current MPs into the Lords.
And some more interesting byelections in promising seats....
Who are the most loyalist of the Johnsonite MPs? The ones who would never be awarded any thing from his successor?
Rees Mogg and Mad Nad, I suppose.... Two Lib Dem gains? Edit - I see this has already been touched on. Are there no promising byelections for the Labour Party as well?
Any resignation honours by elections will take place at or near the sweet spot of the new leader bounce.
Nevertheless they are hand grenades from the liar king to his successor that I doubt he minds throwing at all.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
I've no idea what that refers to but if it's temperatures the forecast for the UK doesn't look much above 30C for the next ten days.
So Javid, Badenoch and - by implication Hunt - are all committed to swingeing cuts to an already hollowed out public sector.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
Sunak, but he won't win.
He’s only non-crazy in comparison with the very crazy. He’s has other issues, like the fact he’s never spoken to anyone who earns less than £100k per annum.
Mr Javid reels off the cost of each measure and says he would fund the package from a mixture of the £32 billion fiscal headroom forecast to be available by 2024-25, and an efficiency savings programme that would see 1 per cent cut from all Whitehall spending, including on the NHS.
"Efficiency savings". CALLED IT!
That’s an 11% cut once 2022’s inflation is taken into account. By the time you get to 2024 that will be a 20-30% cut…
And our real situation is way worse than the public position which is why Rishi isn’t talking about tax cuts because they aren’t possible.
I’m not sure I understand, health Secretary last weekend, knows there’s more than 12 million people waiting in a backlog, many in pain, some might die because of size of backlog, is proposing cutting the NHS so his party can get re-elected? Is that right?
His party won’t get re-elected if he actually follows through on that.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
Not much irrigation round our ways, but a week of 40C+ is not at all unheard of, without a big impact on environment nor agriculture (but we do have AC). But I guess it depends where crops are in the growing cycle - and how long it stays about above 30C - as to how much crop damage is done (assuming all crops in the UK are C3 plants).
So Javid, Badenoch and - by implication Hunt - are all committed to swingeing cuts to an already hollowed out public sector.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
It’s really odd. They just discovered a new voting cohort made up of people who quite like public spending and don’t seem to mind tax cuts, so they decide to go back to the fiscal policies those people hated under Osborne while keeping the culture war nonsense their old core vote find distasteful.
(Though to be fair neither Saj nor Hunt are doing the culture war thing so much).
So Javid, Badenoch and - by implication Hunt - are all committed to swingeing cuts to an already hollowed out public sector.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
Sunak, but he won't win.
He’s only non-crazy in comparison with the very crazy. He’s has other issues, like the fact he’s never spoken to anyone who earns less than £100k per annum.
Not true, he spoke to some students in the local cinema last month..
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
Not much irrigation round our ways, but a week of 40C+ is not at all unheard of, without a big impact on environment nor agriculture (but we do have AC). But I guess it depends where crops are in the growing cycle - and how long it stays about above 30C - as to how much crop damage is done (assuming all crops in the UK are C3 plants).
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
I've no idea what that refers to but if it's temperatures the forecast for the UK doesn't look much above 30C for the next ten days.
I think there are various model runs - dozens even - and this is the high off the scale and low probability one.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
Exactly the moment to introduce scrap net zero as a policy?
So Javid, Badenoch and - by implication Hunt - are all committed to swingeing cuts to an already hollowed out public sector.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
It’s really odd. They just discovered a new voting cohort made up of people who quite like public spending and don’t seem to mind tax cuts, so they decide to go back to the fiscal policies those people hated under Osborne while keeping the culture war nonsense their old core vote find distasteful.
(Though to be fair neither Saj nor Hunt are doing the culture war thing so much).
It’s Osborn on steroids.
Most of those standing would be considered very very fiscally right win if stood up against the May, Cameron, Blair, Brown, Major and even Thatcher cabinets.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
Not much irrigation round our ways, but a week of 40C+ is not at all unheard of, without a big impact on environment nor agriculture (but we do have AC). But I guess it depends where crops are in the growing cycle - and how long it stays about above 30C - as to how much crop damage is done (assuming all crops in the UK are C3 plants).
Our cereals will be fine but market gardens in Kent and Vale of Evesham are only patchily irrigated, and of course pasture is already suffering (and in a dire way in large parts of the continent).
From a personal point of view it’s nerve wracking because I planted several thousand vines this spring and whilst mature vines are pretty drought hardy, first year ones are anything but. The new shoots are also susceptible to sunburn and dessiccation especially if theres a breeze (and humidity is forecast to be very low). The ground is already rock hard.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
I've no idea what that refers to but if it's temperatures the forecast for the UK doesn't look much above 30C for the next ten days.
It’s one model, and known for extremes at long range.
Once again, we are seeing prospective Conservative leadership candidates try to win support with completely ridiculous "tax cuts". Does anyone in the Conservative Party realise how serious the economic and public finance situation is?
Unfunded tax cuts (should we now call that the "Sri Lanka" option?) are a one-way ticket to disaster. That's not to say ALL tax cuts are bad - that would be absurd - but it's reasonable to ask where, for example, the £26 billion the Government would lose if it unilaterally gave up fuel duty would be recouped?
Given the pledges of additional spending on defence, Police, the NHS and education, are any of the candidates going to stand up and say how they would fund these tax cuts? Pensions perhaps - a nice 20% cut in State pensions would help and I imagine someone as politically erudite as a Sunak, Hunt or Badenoch could explain to the pensioners how that will work and not lose a single vote.
Back in the real world, how are these tax cuts to be funded? Where will any public spending cuts be made? Care for vulnerable adults and children perhaps? Libraries maybe? Perhaps we should forego the renovation of the Palace of Westminster and let it fall into the Thames?
Yes, it's like they're all collectively pretending to live in an economic La La Land.
Once again, we are seeing prospective Conservative leadership candidates try to win support with completely ridiculous "tax cuts". Does anyone in the Conservative Party realise how serious the economic and public finance situation is?
Unfunded tax cuts (should we now call that the "Sri Lanka" option?) are a one-way ticket to disaster. That's not to say ALL tax cuts are bad - that would be absurd - but it's reasonable to ask where, for example, the £26 billion the Government would lose if it unilaterally gave up fuel duty would be recouped?
Given the pledges of additional spending on defence, Police, the NHS and education, are any of the candidates going to stand up and say how they would fund these tax cuts? Pensions perhaps - a nice 20% cut in State pensions would help and I imagine someone as politically erudite as a Sunak, Hunt or Badenoch could explain to the pensioners how that will work and not lose a single vote.
Back in the real world, how are these tax cuts to be funded? Where will any public spending cuts be made? Care for vulnerable adults and children perhaps? Libraries maybe? Perhaps we should forego the renovation of the Palace of Westminster and let it fall into the Thames?
Inevitable when you have a system that puts the choice of the next PM in the hands a tiny group of unrepresentative members who are largely retired, comfortably-off and out of touch with modern life.
It is worth noting that many (most?) economists now think Osborn went too far with Austerity 2.0 - even those who supported it at the time - and believe it effectively stunted growth.
As I bid goodnight, may I just say how much I'm enjoying the (impending) Tory Civil War? Let's hope it lasts at least a couple of years.
If they were in Opposition, I might share your hopes.
But they're not.
For the good of country it needs to be sorted in a fortnight.
To hell with the members in other words.
My hunch is that the fact that the members will make the final choice will be what loses them the next election.
Of the last 3 general election majority winners, Blair, Cameron and Johnson, all 3 were picked by Labour or Tory members.
Tory MPs alone however picked general election losers Hague and Howard and May who lost her majority in 2017. Labour MPs alone meanwhile picked Gordon Brown who lost Labour its majority in 2010
"Chief secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke writes in the Telegraph, revealing he backs foreign secretary Liz Truss to become leader, and believes she would reverse the national insurance rise. Clarke tweeted: “I am supporting @trussliz for the leadership of @Conservatives. She will galvanise growth, cut taxes and launch a new Spending Review. “She’s tough on our enemies abroad, will seize the opportunities of Brexit and has a strong record of delivery.”"
It is worth noting that many (most?) economists now think Osborn went too far with Austerity 2.0 - even those who supported it at the time - and believe it effectively stunted growth.
Even had Cameron won the EU referendum in 2016, Osborne would probably failed to have beaten Corbyn at the next general election, especially facing a resurgent UKIP too
Mr Johnson has decided he cannot force a by-election in his marginal constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
But two well-placed sources said he is now deciding whether to follow in the footsteps of his immediate predecessor, Theresa May, and remain in the Commons, or to stand down at the next election.
And..... Starmer leads 28 to 20 on best PM........ versus Boris, after this week, lmfao
Tugendhat and Sunak only 2 of the declared and still potential Tory leadership contenders with more voters thinking they would make good PMs than bad by 1%.
Every other contender is seen as being a bad PM if they got the job
Who are you favouring now that Wallace is out?
Tugendhat
Despite what we all say about you, @HYUFD, you seem to support the most sensible candidates.
Mr Johnson has decided he cannot force a by-election in his marginal constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
But two well-placed sources said he is now deciding whether to follow in the footsteps of his immediate predecessor, Theresa May, and remain in the Commons, or to stand down at the next election.
Telegraph
He means ask the good burghers of Uxbridge to return him to the Commons........
So Javid, Badenoch and - by implication Hunt - are all committed to swingeing cuts to an already hollowed out public sector.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
Sunak, but he won't win.
He’s only non-crazy in comparison with the very crazy. He’s has other issues, like the fact he’s never spoken to anyone who earns less than £100k per annum.
Not true, he spoke to some students in the local cinema last month..
You're reading that quote about Sunak too literally. I read it as "the fact he’s never spoken to anyone who earns less than £100k per annum other than for a photo opportunity". The last bit is so obvious that it went without saying.
Random observation - we are going to be hearing a lot more about GDP/capita figures, and Balance of Trade figures, in the coming days, weeks, months and years.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
No no no. It’s not one model at long range. It’s 3 of the 4 major models (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO, the Canadian GEM is the only dissenting voice) and most of their ensemble members.
In the ECMWF ensemble of 50 members this evening the mean “peak day” across all runs is over 20C at 850hPa (that equates to 37-38C at the surface in full sunshine), and the median peak day is 21C.
Only 10 out of 50 have a peak below 18C (35C at the surface).
It’s perfectly possible it will moderate and dissipate as we get closer but not an iron law of physics. This is 7-8 days out - not long range by modern modelling standards.
If we’ve learned one thing in the last few years it’s that freakish and previously worst case scenarios (global pandemic, 50C in Canada, Russia mounting a full scale invasion of Ukraine etc) can and do happen.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
If it reaches more than 36 degrees anywhere in the UK this summer I'll eat my hat.
Mr Johnson has decided he cannot force a by-election in his marginal constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
But two well-placed sources said he is now deciding whether to follow in the footsteps of his immediate predecessor, Theresa May, and remain in the Commons, or to stand down at the next election.
Telegraph
He means ask the good burghers of Uxbridge to return him to the Commons........
He won't turn up for any votes or do anything for his constituents.
This race to cut taxes might end up being an own goal for those candidates .
Sunaks I won’t tell you fairytales seems a good slogan and I’m sure he will ensure taxes can be cut just before the next election.
What happens with all these tax cuts , how are they going to be paid for , more borrowing or cuts to services.
Certainly for us political junkies the normal quiet summer period looks a bit more interesting . Just how this plays out and just how ugly and bitter this leadership campaign becomes should keep PB very busy over the coming weeks.
"What do you make of the argument that if, say, someone could never, ever be attracted to a person of a significantly different skin colour, we might affirm their personal choice and yet still suggest that they harboured a societal prejudice? And that a similar prejudice is on display for someone (whatever their sexual orientation) that would not ever consider having sex with a trans person?
Is (a) the idea this is prejudiced wrong? (b) correct, but not applicable to the case of trans people because of the physical difference in genitalia? (c) something else going on?"
My answer is that to confuse a sexual preference with societal prejudice is to make a fundamental category mistake.
A sexual preference is innate & strongly correlated with a person's body. If you're gay you want to have sex with people of the same sex. If you're straight you want sex with the opposite sex. It is the sex of the partner which is key. Body and sex are intimately connected.
So a gay man is not prejudiced against women because he does not want to have sex with them. There is no prejudice or bigotry. The basic sexual attraction simply does not exist. Ditto with a lesbian not wanting to have sex with a man. It is not societal preferences which determine this but your own sexuality.
Now TRAs have got themselves into a pickle because while they may well feel themselves to be a different sex, their actual body has not changed. (The overwhelming majority of transpeople do not have surgery so retain the body they were born with.) Whatever they may feel however genuinely, the factual reality is that a lesbian is not going to be sexually attracted to a male body. Similarly a gay man is not going to be attracted a trans man retaining their female body. That is not prejudice or bigotry. It is a consequence of their sexuality.
TRAs are not willing to accept this because it undermines their claim that, say, a TW is just like any other woman. She isn't & in a very fundamental way. Sex is the rock on which the belief TRAs have crashes and founders. Rather than accept this, they describe a normal sexual preference as bigotry & preference belittle & demean lesbians by claiming that men are lesbians. It is aggressive, upsetting & infused with a rape mentality - a coercive approach which assumes that they are entitled to sex with women & any woman refusing this has no business doing so.
If a white person is only attracted to other white people, is that prejudice?
I agree that what genitals you are attracted to is not a prejudice, but does that generalise to other features?
Sex is one of those things that proves we're all capitalists, and proves the ruthlessness of capitalism at the same time.
In sex, there's no redistribution. There's no "look at those poor people over there, they aren't getting any, we should take some partners off the people who are getting loads and give them to the poor deprived people." We lionise the billionares of the sex world. The most beautiful. The most active. The most - dare I say it - privileged.
I'm not saying I disagree with any of that, by the way. Just making the point that even the staunchest communist, who would be willing to redistribute income, food, housing, practically everything else to make people equal - would find the idea of sexual "equality" absurd.
No open atheists were also burnt at the stake as heretics.
Though of course unlike many nations of your religion of heritage atheism is not illegal in virtually any Christian countries today. However Christ's message holds true as much now as then
Without commenting on the substance of what you're saying, redistribution and capitalism go together quite nicely. Capitalism does not imply a lack of redistribution, and, I firmly believe, cannot possibly survive without redistribution.
Which is why our attitudes to sex are all the more remarkable. The sexual marketplace is hyper-capitalism, rapacious capitalism, ayn-rand-style-tyranny-of-the-market-capitalism.
The idea of redistribution in the sexual marketplace is repugnant to us. The notion of coercion, abhorrent. We are happy to have 40% of our incomes taken off us, but 40% of our sexual partners given to those unluckier in love than we are would be ridiculous.
The sexual marketplace accepts absolutely zero compulsion, whether that's being forced to sleep with an ugly person, or a person whose bits you aren't attracted to.
As I say, it says something fascinating about human nature.
At the end of the day there are about equal numbers of good looking, average looking and ugly looking men and women. If more followed traditional religious principles and stuck to one partner who matched them in looks and personality for life there would be less of an issue.
Only a small minority of us are very good looking or will be very rich so better to settle for what you have
Did God ever marry the mother of His Only Begotten Son?
He produced Jesus via the Holy Spirit through Mary and Joseph committed to Mary for life to bring him up
Christianity - One adulterers lie that got out of hand.
You of course would never be so insulting about Muhammad or the Koran or you would have a Fatwa on you!
Given the amount of paedo Prophet stuff that gets boaked up on the internet (including on occasions on here) I sense your fatwa fears are somewhat over egged.
Anyone who can be publicly identified as having insulted the Prophet is likely to have a Fatwa on them and a mob round by their house.
Just we Christians no longer burn at the stake those who disrespect our religion as we did 500 years ago
No you didn't, it was more those who subscribed wholeheartedly to the religion but had virtually invisible sectarian disagreements over details. And Christianity is as contemptibly vile now as it was then, just, thankfully, relatively toothless.
No open atheists were
Wrong! I am openly atheist. I make no secret of the fact that God does not exist and all those people in churches, synagogues, temples, mosques, etc are mumbling their prayers to an empty sky.
There is no heaven. There are no angels. There is no devil. No one tempts you to sin. No eternal life awaits the virtuous.
So what, you are able to say that now in the UK.
500 years ago we would be burning you at the stake!
Which merely shows the insane savagery of religion and why it deserves to be heavily constrained.
In your view, not mine.
For me the Christian message remains as strong as ever, Jesus himself never threatened stake burnings for non believers
Nevertheless the polite thing nowadays is to keep your delusions to yourself.
As I bid goodnight, may I just say how much I'm enjoying the (impending) Tory Civil War? Let's hope it lasts at least a couple of years.
If they were in Opposition, I might share your hopes.
But they're not.
For the good of country it needs to be sorted in a fortnight.
To hell with the members in other words.
My hunch is that the fact that the members will make the final choice will be what loses them the next election.
Of the last 3 general election majority winners, Blair, Cameron and Johnson, all 3 were picked by Labour or Tory members.
Tory MPs alone however picked general election losers Hague and Howard and May who lost her majority in 2017. Labour MPs alone meanwhile picked Gordon Brown who lost Labour its majority in 2010
That is somewhat unfair in 2016. May was one of the last two and was about to be in a Tory membership vote, but Leadsome pulled out, so a membership election would have been a waste of time.
So Javid, Badenoch and - by implication Hunt - are all committed to swingeing cuts to an already hollowed out public sector.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
There is no continuity Boris candidate. So they are stuck with rehashing the old failed Cameronite formula. So, they will hand back lots of the red wall, and carry on losing seats in the blue wall to the lib dems; due to the legacy of a massive strategic blunder on planning reform which will not be resolved in this parliament; there isn't enough time. The loss of Gove from DLUHC is bad news on this front, because he was doing respectable work sorting this problem out.
Boris single handedly reinvented the party in 2019. The candidates are queuing up to undo this reinvention, to go back to an old failed formula, the exact formula that led to Brexit. The departure of Boris could save the labour party. It could look in future like an act of collective madness.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
No no no. It’s not one model at long range. It’s 3 of the 4 major models (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO, the Canadian GEM is the only dissenting voice) and most of their ensemble members.
In the ECMWF ensemble of 50 members this evening the mean “peak day” across all runs is over 20C at 850hPa (that equates to 37-38C at the surface in full sunshine), and the median peak day is 21C.
Only 10 out of 50 have a peak below 18C (35C at the surface).
It’s perfectly possible it will moderate and dissipate as we get closer but not an iron law of physics. This is 7-8 days out - not long range by modern modelling standards.
If we’ve learned one thing in the last few years it’s that freakish and previously worst case scenarios (global pandemic, 50C in Canada, Russia mounting a full scale invasion of Ukraine etc) can and do happen.
7 days is still long range. I spend a lot of time on weather chats too. It’s a consistent pattern that extremes are moderated as we approach the time. This weekends heat is an example. Last weekend some were forecasting mid thirties which did not happen.
So Javid, Badenoch and - by implication Hunt - are all committed to swingeing cuts to an already hollowed out public sector.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
It’s really odd. They just discovered a new voting cohort made up of people who quite like public spending and don’t seem to mind tax cuts, so they decide to go back to the fiscal policies those people hated under Osborne while keeping the culture war nonsense their old core vote find distasteful.
(Though to be fair neither Saj nor Hunt are doing the culture war thing so much).
It’s Osborn on steroids.
Most of those standing would be considered very very fiscally right win if stood up against the May, Cameron, Blair, Brown, Major and even Thatcher cabinets.
It’s John Redwood stuff.
I’m starting to think HY was right about the Tories having electoral dysfunction after chucking Johnson. Not because he’s a uniquely good vote winner but because the rest of the party is crap.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
As I bid goodnight, may I just say how much I'm enjoying the (impending) Tory Civil War? Let's hope it lasts at least a couple of years.
If they were in Opposition, I might share your hopes.
But they're not.
For the good of country it needs to be sorted in a fortnight.
To hell with the members in other words.
My hunch is that the fact that the members will make the final choice will be what loses them the next election.
Of the last 3 general election majority winners, Blair, Cameron and Johnson, all 3 were picked by Labour or Tory members.
Tory MPs alone however picked general election losers Hague and Howard and May who lost her majority in 2017. Labour MPs alone meanwhile picked Gordon Brown who lost Labour its majority in 2010
That is somewhat unfair in 2016. May was one of the last two and was about to be in a Tory membership vote, but Leadsome pulled out, so a membership election would have been a waste of time.
It's interesting to think what would have happened if Leadsom hadn't pulled out. I think May would probably still have won but we would have seen some of May's weaknesses come out earlier and perhaps avoided the later disaster of the GE campaign.
"What do you make of the argument that if, say, someone could never, ever be attracted to a person of a significantly different skin colour, we might affirm their personal choice and yet still suggest that they harboured a societal prejudice? And that a similar prejudice is on display for someone (whatever their sexual orientation) that would not ever consider having sex with a trans person?
Is (a) the idea this is prejudiced wrong? (b) correct, but not applicable to the case of trans people because of the physical difference in genitalia? (c) something else going on?"
My answer is that to confuse a sexual preference with societal prejudice is to make a fundamental category mistake.
A sexual preference is innate & strongly correlated with a person's body. If you're gay you want to have sex with people of the same sex. If you're straight you want sex with the opposite sex. It is the sex of the partner which is key. Body and sex are intimately connected.
So a gay man is not prejudiced against women because he does not want to have sex with them. There is no prejudice or bigotry. The basic sexual attraction simply does not exist. Ditto with a lesbian not wanting to have sex with a man. It is not societal preferences which determine this but your own sexuality.
Now TRAs have got themselves into a pickle because while they may well feel themselves to be a different sex, their actual body has not changed. (The overwhelming majority of transpeople do not have surgery so retain the body they were born with.) Whatever they may feel however genuinely, the factual reality is that a lesbian is not going to be sexually attracted to a male body. Similarly a gay man is not going to be attracted a trans man retaining their female body. That is not prejudice or bigotry. It is a consequence of their sexuality.
TRAs are not willing to accept this because it undermines their claim that, say, a TW is just like any other woman. She isn't & in a very fundamental way. Sex is the rock on which the belief TRAs have crashes and founders. Rather than accept this, they describe a normal sexual preference as bigotry & preference belittle & demean lesbians by claiming that men are lesbians. It is aggressive, upsetting & infused with a rape mentality - a coercive approach which assumes that they are entitled to sex with women & any woman refusing this has no business doing so.
If a white person is only attracted to other white people, is that prejudice?
I agree that what genitals you are attracted to is not a prejudice, but does that generalise to other features?
Sex is one of those things that proves we're all capitalists, and proves the ruthlessness of capitalism at the same time.
In sex, there's no redistribution. There's no "look at those poor people over there, they aren't getting any, we should take some partners off the people who are getting loads and give them to the poor deprived people." We lionise the billionares of the sex world. The most beautiful. The most active. The most - dare I say it - privileged.
I'm not saying I disagree with any of that, by the way. Just making the point that even the staunchest communist, who would be willing to redistribute income, food, housing, practically everything else to make people equal - would find the idea of sexual "equality" absurd.
No open atheists were also burnt at the stake as heretics.
Though of course unlike many nations of your religion of heritage atheism is not illegal in virtually any Christian countries today. However Christ's message holds true as much now as then
Without commenting on the substance of what you're saying, redistribution and capitalism go together quite nicely. Capitalism does not imply a lack of redistribution, and, I firmly believe, cannot possibly survive without redistribution.
Which is why our attitudes to sex are all the more remarkable. The sexual marketplace is hyper-capitalism, rapacious capitalism, ayn-rand-style-tyranny-of-the-market-capitalism.
The idea of redistribution in the sexual marketplace is repugnant to us. The notion of coercion, abhorrent. We are happy to have 40% of our incomes taken off us, but 40% of our sexual partners given to those unluckier in love than we are would be ridiculous.
The sexual marketplace accepts absolutely zero compulsion, whether that's being forced to sleep with an ugly person, or a person whose bits you aren't attracted to.
As I say, it says something fascinating about human nature.
At the end of the day there are about equal numbers of good looking, average looking and ugly looking men and women. If more followed traditional religious principles and stuck to one partner who matched them in looks and personality for life there would be less of an issue.
Only a small minority of us are very good looking or will be very rich so better to settle for what you have
Did God ever marry the mother of His Only Begotten Son?
He produced Jesus via the Holy Spirit through Mary and Joseph committed to Mary for life to bring him up
Christianity - One adulterers lie that got out of hand.
You of course would never be so insulting about Muhammad or the Koran or you would have a Fatwa on you!
Given the amount of paedo Prophet stuff that gets boaked up on the internet (including on occasions on here) I sense your fatwa fears are somewhat over egged.
Anyone who can be publicly identified as having insulted the Prophet is likely to have a Fatwa on them and a mob round by their house.
Just we Christians no longer burn at the stake those who disrespect our religion as we did 500 years ago
No you didn't, it was more those who subscribed wholeheartedly to the religion but had virtually invisible sectarian disagreements over details. And Christianity is as contemptibly vile now as it was then, just, thankfully, relatively toothless.
No open atheists were
Wrong! I am openly atheist. I make no secret of the fact that God does not exist and all those people in churches, synagogues, temples, mosques, etc are mumbling their prayers to an empty sky.
There is no heaven. There are no angels. There is no devil. No one tempts you to sin. No eternal life awaits the virtuous.
So what, you are able to say that now in the UK.
500 years ago we would be burning you at the stake!
Which merely shows the insane savagery of religion and why it deserves to be heavily constrained.
In your view, not mine.
For me the Christian message remains as strong as ever, Jesus himself never threatened stake burnings for non believers
Nevertheless the polite thing nowadays is to keep your delusions to yourself.
These Sunday Papers already looking brutal for a few candidates 😟 how long has some of this stuff been sat on by papers, or now leaked by someone else sitting on it?
What stuff?
As the Independent piece puts it:
There is no suggestion of any wrongdoing by Mr Zahawi, a popular and respected figure among Tory MPs.
Don't start out by believing crapulous tabloid newspapers . TSE is just teasing.
Are red wall MPs really going to get behind cuts to corporation tax? They are surely a substantial part of the MP electorate.
The redwall is probably mostly lost back to Labour anyway post Boris and now Brexit is done.
Best Tories can hope for is a 1992 or 2015 style scraped majority
The red wall may not be lost if someone actually did some levelling up, stuff like reinstating HS2 to Manchester and Leeds, moving jobs from London northwards, apart from the ones being moved from the Treasury to Rishi’s neighbouring constituency.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
Are red wall MPs really going to get behind cuts to corporation tax? They are surely a substantial part of the MP electorate.
The redwall is probably mostly lost back to Labour anyway post Boris and now Brexit is done.
Best Tories can hope for is a 1992 or 2015 style scraped majority
The red wall may not be lost if someone actually did some levelling up, stuff like reinstating HS2 to Manchester and Leeds, moving jobs from London northwards, apart from the ones being moved from the Treasury to Rishi’s neighbouring constituency.
Except much of that loses the blue wall too, workers there don't want to move north
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
Lucky UK! Some of us saw 45ºC today.
The hottest temperature I've experienced was 37ºC in Florida in 1999. The most in the UK was about 33ºC.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
Not much irrigation round our ways, but a week of 40C+ is not at all unheard of, without a big impact on environment nor agriculture (but we do have AC). But I guess it depends where crops are in the growing cycle - and how long it stays about above 30C - as to how much crop damage is done (assuming all crops in the UK are C3 plants).
Are you talking temperatures in the sun?
Shade temperatures.
And let’s just look at the last 4 years shall we:
2018: joint hottest summer for the UK on record. Max temperature 35.3C
2019: hottest 850hPa temperature ever recorded in June (same time France smashed its all time heat record), then all time heat record set at 38.7C in Cambridge on 25th July
2020: 37.8C at Heathrow on 31st July, which would have beaten the old all time record pre-2003 and the all time July record pre-2015; 36.4C on 7th August, and 6 consecutive days above 34C, the first time ever
2021: a disappointing summer and the worst in a few years but Northern Ireland still managed to break its all time temperature record 3 days in a row. Also of course the year Sicily recorded the all time hottest temperature in Europe.
So hitting the mid 30s and threatening records is very much a normal thing these days.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
Lucky UK! Some of us saw 45ºC today.
I've experienced that level of heat in Egypt and it was ok because the humidity was zero. 45C plus humidity would knock me sideways
"What do you make of the argument that if, say, someone could never, ever be attracted to a person of a significantly different skin colour, we might affirm their personal choice and yet still suggest that they harboured a societal prejudice? And that a similar prejudice is on display for someone (whatever their sexual orientation) that would not ever consider having sex with a trans person?
Is (a) the idea this is prejudiced wrong? (b) correct, but not applicable to the case of trans people because of the physical difference in genitalia? (c) something else going on?"
My answer is that to confuse a sexual preference with societal prejudice is to make a fundamental category mistake.
A sexual preference is innate & strongly correlated with a person's body. If you're gay you want to have sex with people of the same sex. If you're straight you want sex with the opposite sex. It is the sex of the partner which is key. Body and sex are intimately connected.
So a gay man is not prejudiced against women because he does not want to have sex with them. There is no prejudice or bigotry. The basic sexual attraction simply does not exist. Ditto with a lesbian not wanting to have sex with a man. It is not societal preferences which determine this but your own sexuality.
Now TRAs have got themselves into a pickle because while they may well feel themselves to be a different sex, their actual body has not changed. (The overwhelming majority of transpeople do not have surgery so retain the body they were born with.) Whatever they may feel however genuinely, the factual reality is that a lesbian is not going to be sexually attracted to a male body. Similarly a gay man is not going to be attracted a trans man retaining their female body. That is not prejudice or bigotry. It is a consequence of their sexuality.
TRAs are not willing to accept this because it undermines their claim that, say, a TW is just like any other woman. She isn't & in a very fundamental way. Sex is the rock on which the belief TRAs have crashes and founders. Rather than accept this, they describe a normal sexual preference as bigotry & preference belittle & demean lesbians by claiming that men are lesbians. It is aggressive, upsetting & infused with a rape mentality - a coercive approach which assumes that they are entitled to sex with women & any woman refusing this has no business doing so.
If a white person is only attracted to other white people, is that prejudice?
I agree that what genitals you are attracted to is not a prejudice, but does that generalise to other features?
Sex is one of those things that proves we're all capitalists, and proves the ruthlessness of capitalism at the same time.
In sex, there's no redistribution. There's no "look at those poor people over there, they aren't getting any, we should take some partners off the people who are getting loads and give them to the poor deprived people." We lionise the billionares of the sex world. The most beautiful. The most active. The most - dare I say it - privileged.
I'm not saying I disagree with any of that, by the way. Just making the point that even the staunchest communist, who would be willing to redistribute income, food, housing, practically everything else to make people equal - would find the idea of sexual "equality" absurd.
No open atheists were also burnt at the stake as heretics.
Though of course unlike many nations of your religion of heritage atheism is not illegal in virtually any Christian countries today. However Christ's message holds true as much now as then
Without commenting on the substance of what you're saying, redistribution and capitalism go together quite nicely. Capitalism does not imply a lack of redistribution, and, I firmly believe, cannot possibly survive without redistribution.
Which is why our attitudes to sex are all the more remarkable. The sexual marketplace is hyper-capitalism, rapacious capitalism, ayn-rand-style-tyranny-of-the-market-capitalism.
The idea of redistribution in the sexual marketplace is repugnant to us. The notion of coercion, abhorrent. We are happy to have 40% of our incomes taken off us, but 40% of our sexual partners given to those unluckier in love than we are would be ridiculous.
The sexual marketplace accepts absolutely zero compulsion, whether that's being forced to sleep with an ugly person, or a person whose bits you aren't attracted to.
As I say, it says something fascinating about human nature.
At the end of the day there are about equal numbers of good looking, average looking and ugly looking men and women. If more followed traditional religious principles and stuck to one partner who matched them in looks and personality for life there would be less of an issue.
Only a small minority of us are very good looking or will be very rich so better to settle for what you have
Did God ever marry the mother of His Only Begotten Son?
He produced Jesus via the Holy Spirit through Mary and Joseph committed to Mary for life to bring him up
Christianity - One adulterers lie that got out of hand.
You of course would never be so insulting about Muhammad or the Koran or you would have a Fatwa on you!
Given the amount of paedo Prophet stuff that gets boaked up on the internet (including on occasions on here) I sense your fatwa fears are somewhat over egged.
Anyone who can be publicly identified as having insulted the Prophet is likely to have a Fatwa on them and a mob round by their house.
Just we Christians no longer burn at the stake those who disrespect our religion as we did 500 years ago
No you didn't, it was more those who subscribed wholeheartedly to the religion but had virtually invisible sectarian disagreements over details. And Christianity is as contemptibly vile now as it was then, just, thankfully, relatively toothless.
No open atheists were
Wrong! I am openly atheist. I make no secret of the fact that God does not exist and all those people in churches, synagogues, temples, mosques, etc are mumbling their prayers to an empty sky.
There is no heaven. There are no angels. There is no devil. No one tempts you to sin. No eternal life awaits the virtuous.
So what, you are able to say that now in the UK.
500 years ago we would be burning you at the stake!
Which merely shows the insane savagery of religion and why it deserves to be heavily constrained.
In your view, not mine.
For me the Christian message remains as strong as ever, Jesus himself never threatened stake burnings for non believers
Nevertheless the polite thing nowadays is to keep your delusions to yourself.
Not if you are evangelical it isn't
Yes, it is. They are simply impolite, trying to thrust their nonsense where it isn’t welcome.
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
Not much irrigation round our ways, but a week of 40C+ is not at all unheard of, without a big impact on environment nor agriculture (but we do have AC). But I guess it depends where crops are in the growing cycle - and how long it stays about above 30C - as to how much crop damage is done (assuming all crops in the UK are C3 plants).
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
Lucky UK! Some of us saw 45ºC today.
The hottest temperature I've experienced was 37ºC in Florida in 1999. The most in the UK was about 33ºC.
Low 40s in the Sahara is mine, very dry heat, bearable 38 in Senegal with high humidity was fucking unbearable
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
Lucky UK! Some of us saw 45ºC today.
I've experienced that level of heat in Egypt and it was ok because the humidity was zero. 45C plus humidity would knock me sideways
45C with humidity is actively dangerous. You can’t lose heat and you die of hyperthermia.
Johnson has nowhere to live after No 10 reports Telegraph.
His two former homes are rented out.
I am sure he can put up a tent in Hyde Park
As a general rule, I believe former PMs are allowed to use Chequers for a while to help with housing transition. That certainly used to be offered.
Maybe for a month or 2 but I am sure Rishi would kick him out as soon as he could.
Of course. But the offer has traditionally been made but only rarely taken up.
There will be a crony who can take the four of them in (plus the dog)
Rishi has no need of slumming it at Chequers every weekend when he has his own Georgian manor which by some quirk of fate is very near the new HMRC HQ at Darlington.
"What do you make of the argument that if, say, someone could never, ever be attracted to a person of a significantly different skin colour, we might affirm their personal choice and yet still suggest that they harboured a societal prejudice? And that a similar prejudice is on display for someone (whatever their sexual orientation) that would not ever consider having sex with a trans person?
Is (a) the idea this is prejudiced wrong? (b) correct, but not applicable to the case of trans people because of the physical difference in genitalia? (c) something else going on?"
My answer is that to confuse a sexual preference with societal prejudice is to make a fundamental category mistake.
A sexual preference is innate & strongly correlated with a person's body. If you're gay you want to have sex with people of the same sex. If you're straight you want sex with the opposite sex. It is the sex of the partner which is key. Body and sex are intimately connected.
So a gay man is not prejudiced against women because he does not want to have sex with them. There is no prejudice or bigotry. The basic sexual attraction simply does not exist. Ditto with a lesbian not wanting to have sex with a man. It is not societal preferences which determine this but your own sexuality.
Now TRAs have got themselves into a pickle because while they may well feel themselves to be a different sex, their actual body has not changed. (The overwhelming majority of transpeople do not have surgery so retain the body they were born with.) Whatever they may feel however genuinely, the factual reality is that a lesbian is not going to be sexually attracted to a male body. Similarly a gay man is not going to be attracted a trans man retaining their female body. That is not prejudice or bigotry. It is a consequence of their sexuality.
TRAs are not willing to accept this because it undermines their claim that, say, a TW is just like any other woman. She isn't & in a very fundamental way. Sex is the rock on which the belief TRAs have crashes and founders. Rather than accept this, they describe a normal sexual preference as bigotry & preference belittle & demean lesbians by claiming that men are lesbians. It is aggressive, upsetting & infused with a rape mentality - a coercive approach which assumes that they are entitled to sex with women & any woman refusing this has no business doing so.
If a white person is only attracted to other white people, is that prejudice?
I agree that what genitals you are attracted to is not a prejudice, but does that generalise to other features?
Sex is one of those things that proves we're all capitalists, and proves the ruthlessness of capitalism at the same time.
In sex, there's no redistribution. There's no "look at those poor people over there, they aren't getting any, we should take some partners off the people who are getting loads and give them to the poor deprived people." We lionise the billionares of the sex world. The most beautiful. The most active. The most - dare I say it - privileged.
I'm not saying I disagree with any of that, by the way. Just making the point that even the staunchest communist, who would be willing to redistribute income, food, housing, practically everything else to make people equal - would find the idea of sexual "equality" absurd.
No open atheists were also burnt at the stake as heretics.
Though of course unlike many nations of your religion of heritage atheism is not illegal in virtually any Christian countries today. However Christ's message holds true as much now as then
Without commenting on the substance of what you're saying, redistribution and capitalism go together quite nicely. Capitalism does not imply a lack of redistribution, and, I firmly believe, cannot possibly survive without redistribution.
Which is why our attitudes to sex are all the more remarkable. The sexual marketplace is hyper-capitalism, rapacious capitalism, ayn-rand-style-tyranny-of-the-market-capitalism.
The idea of redistribution in the sexual marketplace is repugnant to us. The notion of coercion, abhorrent. We are happy to have 40% of our incomes taken off us, but 40% of our sexual partners given to those unluckier in love than we are would be ridiculous.
The sexual marketplace accepts absolutely zero compulsion, whether that's being forced to sleep with an ugly person, or a person whose bits you aren't attracted to.
As I say, it says something fascinating about human nature.
At the end of the day there are about equal numbers of good looking, average looking and ugly looking men and women. If more followed traditional religious principles and stuck to one partner who matched them in looks and personality for life there would be less of an issue.
Only a small minority of us are very good looking or will be very rich so better to settle for what you have
Did God ever marry the mother of His Only Begotten Son?
He produced Jesus via the Holy Spirit through Mary and Joseph committed to Mary for life to bring him up
Christianity - One adulterers lie that got out of hand.
You of course would never be so insulting about Muhammad or the Koran or you would have a Fatwa on you!
Given the amount of paedo Prophet stuff that gets boaked up on the internet (including on occasions on here) I sense your fatwa fears are somewhat over egged.
Anyone who can be publicly identified as having insulted the Prophet is likely to have a Fatwa on them and a mob round by their house.
Just we Christians no longer burn at the stake those who disrespect our religion as we did 500 years ago
No you didn't, it was more those who subscribed wholeheartedly to the religion but had virtually invisible sectarian disagreements over details. And Christianity is as contemptibly vile now as it was then, just, thankfully, relatively toothless.
No open atheists were
Wrong! I am openly atheist. I make no secret of the fact that God does not exist and all those people in churches, synagogues, temples, mosques, etc are mumbling their prayers to an empty sky.
There is no heaven. There are no angels. There is no devil. No one tempts you to sin. No eternal life awaits the virtuous.
So what, you are able to say that now in the UK.
500 years ago we would be burning you at the stake!
Which merely shows the insane savagery of religion and why it deserves to be heavily constrained.
In your view, not mine.
For me the Christian message remains as strong as ever, Jesus himself never threatened stake burnings for non believers
Nevertheless the polite thing nowadays is to keep your delusions to yourself.
Not if you are evangelical it isn't
Yes, it is. They are simply impolite, trying to thrust their nonsense where it isn’t welcome.
They are trying to save you for eternal life with the Lord, try stopping them!
Been out so don’t know if we’ve already done the weather yet today, but it’s getting serious.
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
All good, but one model at at long range. It will moderate as we approach t=0. We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
Lucky UK! Some of us saw 45ºC today.
The hottest temperature I've experienced was 37ºC in Florida in 1999. The most in the UK was about 33ºC.
I remember 37ºC in the UK, 2003 from memory. It was really horrible.
Obviously, I’m now in an air conditioned apartment, which makes a massive difference to the daily comfort, even if you can only live for a minute or two at a time outside.
If you think we are “hollowed out” then there is sone structural inefficiency compared to what we have done in living memory.
I think there is a huge amount of spending that just happens because someone once thought it was a good idea and it is hard to challenge
We have spent the last 50 years selling off anything of value to any foreign company who will buy it and used that to close the spending / earning gap. It does not work forever.
So Javid, Badenoch and - by implication Hunt - are all committed to swingeing cuts to an already hollowed out public sector.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
There is no continuity Boris candidate. So they are stuck with rehashing the old failed Cameronite formula. So, they will hand back lots of the red wall, and carry on losing seats in the blue wall to the lib dems; due to the legacy of a massive strategic blunder on planning reform which will not be resolved in this parliament; there isn't enough time. The loss of Gove from DLUHC is bad news on this front, because he was doing respectable work sorting this problem out.
Boris single handedly reinvented the party in 2019. The candidates are queuing up to undo this reinvention, to go back to an old failed formula, the exact formula that led to Brexit. The departure of Boris could save the labour party. It could look in future like an act of collective madness.
So - what would continuity Boris look like policy wise?
Comments
The last time a party won 5 elections in a row was the Tories in 1900, however during those 5 elections they still ended up with Liberal PM on a couple of occasions, the last time a party won 5 straight elections without interruption of a different parties PM was 1830
This is a week on Monday on this evening’s GFS run:
The previous Sunday hits 43C widely too. Midnight temperatures above 30C in between.
Freak? Maybe, it’s at the top of the ensembles but there are not dissimilar peaks showing up in the European model too. And peaks at 45-46C in Northern France.
Needless to say 40C, let alone 44, would be a catastrophe in our non air conditioned, sparsely irrigated country.
They will not be winning any General Elections with this pack of fools.
This is quite crazy stuff, guaranteed to immiserate the country and lose an election besides.
As far as I can tell the only “sane” candidate now standing is Tom Tugendhat. Mordaunt yet to announce of course.
It's becoming a beauty contest. Who has the most mates.
What’s more the competition is happening at such haste, he won’t even be called on it.
Right now only Rishi seems to be coming out with vaguely sensible stuff. The others are in a race to the bottom on tax.
(Though to be fair neither Saj nor Hunt are doing the culture war thing so much).
Sums it up so far 😕
All fingers crossed on Penny now. Only Penny can restore some sanity. She will be in my prayers tonight.
That’s £20+Bn and if you are going to do that remove fuel duty…
Most of those standing would be considered very very fiscally right win if stood up against the May, Cameron, Blair, Brown, Major and even Thatcher cabinets.
It’s John Redwood stuff.
We are heading for a decent heat wave, but I doubt the U.K. will see anything approaching 40.
From a personal point of view it’s nerve wracking because I planted several thousand vines this spring and whilst mature vines are pretty drought hardy, first year ones are anything but. The new shoots are also susceptible to sunburn and dessiccation especially if theres a breeze (and humidity is forecast to be very low). The ground is already rock hard.
Jesus Christ no.
Tory MPs alone however picked general election losers Hague and Howard and May who lost her majority in 2017. Labour MPs alone meanwhile picked Gordon Brown who lost Labour its majority in 2010
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/09/tory-conservative-leadership-race-leader-boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-uk-politics-live-latest
Also:
"Chief secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke writes in the Telegraph, revealing he backs foreign secretary Liz Truss to become leader, and believes she would reverse the national insurance rise. Clarke tweeted: “I am supporting @trussliz for the leadership of @Conservatives. She will galvanise growth, cut taxes and launch a new Spending Review. “She’s tough on our enemies abroad, will seize the opportunities of Brexit and has a strong record of delivery.”"
But two well-placed sources said he is now deciding whether to follow in the footsteps of his immediate predecessor, Theresa May, and remain in the Commons, or to stand down at the next election.
Telegraph
The fat lady hasn't t started warming up yet...
His two former homes are rented out.
In the ECMWF ensemble of 50 members this evening the mean “peak day” across all runs is over 20C at 850hPa (that equates to 37-38C at the surface in full sunshine), and the median peak day is 21C.
Only 10 out of 50 have a peak below 18C (35C at the surface).
It’s perfectly possible it will moderate and dissipate as we get closer but not an iron law of physics. This is 7-8 days out - not long range by modern modelling standards.
If we’ve learned one thing in the last few years it’s that freakish and previously worst case scenarios (global pandemic, 50C in Canada, Russia mounting a full scale invasion of Ukraine etc) can and do happen.
On a permanent pair...
Sunaks I won’t tell you fairytales seems a good slogan and I’m sure he will ensure taxes can be cut just before the next election.
What happens with all these tax cuts , how are they going to be paid for , more borrowing or cuts to services.
Certainly for us political junkies the normal quiet summer period looks a bit more interesting . Just how this plays out and just how ugly and bitter this leadership campaign becomes should keep PB very busy over the coming weeks.
Boris single handedly reinvented the party in 2019. The candidates are queuing up to undo this reinvention, to go back to an old failed formula, the exact formula that led to Brexit. The departure of Boris could save the labour party. It could look in future like an act of collective madness.
😺
#larry
There will be a crony who can take the four of them in (plus the dog)
Uk government spending as a % of gfp is 39% (2019 to avoid pandemic stuff)
That’s smack in the middle of the range of the last 50+ years and about where we were in 2007
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-spending-to-gdp
If you think we are “hollowed out” then there is sone structural inefficiency compared to what we have done in living memory.
I think there is a huge amount of spending that just happens because someone once thought it was a good idea and it is hard to challenge
As the Independent piece puts it:
There is no suggestion of any wrongdoing by Mr Zahawi, a popular and respected figure among Tory MPs.
Don't start out by believing crapulous tabloid newspapers
And let’s just look at the last 4 years shall we:
2018: joint hottest summer for the UK on record. Max temperature 35.3C
2019: hottest 850hPa temperature ever recorded in June (same time France smashed its all time heat record), then all time heat record set at 38.7C in Cambridge on 25th July
2020: 37.8C at Heathrow on 31st July, which would have beaten the old all time record pre-2003 and the all time July record pre-2015; 36.4C on 7th August, and 6 consecutive days above 34C, the first time ever
2021: a disappointing summer and the worst in a few years but Northern Ireland still managed to break its all time temperature record 3 days in a row. Also of course the year Sicily recorded the all time hottest temperature in Europe.
So hitting the mid 30s and threatening records is very much a normal thing these days.
38 in Senegal with high humidity was fucking unbearable
He and others are genuinely trying to claim everything is a bloody remainer plot, even when the people involved are and always have been leavers.
It's already infuriating, but if it works it is just plain depressing.
Obviously, I’m now in an air conditioned apartment, which makes a massive difference to the daily comfort, even if you can only live for a minute or two at a time outside.