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The data the advocates of a “progressive alliance” ignore – politicalbetting.com
The data the advocates of a “progressive alliance” ignore – politicalbetting.com
Inevitably after elections of all sorts there are calls for a progressive alliance to be created. The proponents want an arrangement whereby two of Lib Dem, Green or Labour parties in a specific election stand aside so that the vote of the “progressive” can be maximised.
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If you strip out the stuff which is obvious, proportionate and not sactually anti-trans at all there's not a lot left. Compare the genuine anti gayness of the 70s and earlier.
Are they not seeing all their friends and family getting Covid and recovering? 95% of my mates have had it in the past 6 months. Bizarrely I haven't - which seems statistically unlikely so I suspect and I have and it hasn't even registered...
Seems bonkers to disrupt things for another booster campaign in light of this...
That would reduce even further the "progressive alliance" share below the 55% achieved in Humber/Durham.
Some people just won't vote if their candidate isn't on the ballot paper.
On topic, I think when people start talking about progressive alliances they are getting ahead of themselves, the data and what is even necessary. If the situation is right then informal work and the public being savvy does the work for you. Just as in Tiverton in a GE there probably won't be as much COn-LD switching, it doesn't need to be so high to in in many other places, and similarly you won't need a 100% efficient progressive alliance (which OGH notes does not occur) to win many.
Just have the booster campaign, to avoid disruption. Yes people are getting Covid and recovering, but if they're doing so because the vaccine is working, then that could be a good justification for renewing the booster if required.
I'm happy to get a jab every year if that is what is needed to remain protected, but I'm not happy to have any more disruptions.
I'd suggest the Globe theatre on one of the London days, assuming it's not a winter trip - in place of the somewhat bizarre 'night out in Peckham'.
We once got talking to some Americans on the Dover Calais ferry - they were over for a week but weren't sure if there'd be enough to do in Britain, so had added the day trip to France to their itinerary!
This is hardly news or rocket science and illustrates a) why Javid's bleating to the Daily Mail about "anti-Tory pacts" can be ignored and b) there will never be a "progressive alliance" in any meaningful sense.
I'd go further and say historical experience has left the LDs very wary of both the main parties - the length of spoon required to sup with either Devil has grown exponentially.
I had no plans to get it checked out until people here said I should, so thank you.
Ranged from virtually no symptoms to a week off work for those in good health.
Had one nearer a month, but he has multiple ongoing health conditions.
I'm embarrassed frankly, I've never really rated Bairstow.
As has been pointed out, almost everyone has had Covid now, so the original herd immunity idea has come good, via protection against severe disease from the vaccines.
We are not yet sure how high the ba4/ba5 spike will be in hospitals, although if @Foxy ’s figures are the same nationally, only 20% are FOR Covid, with the rest having Covid as a secondary.
As far as I can tell, lots of people getting Covid and then recovering is in itself disruptive, because many of them will happily jump on the chance to take a week or so off work - which is damaging to the economy, and exacerbates issues like the mass flight cancellations we're seeing.
The other benefit is that rolling up the Covid booster with the annual flu vaccine (assuming that is what's planned) helps increase takeup for both vaccines, and therefore reduces the impact of the winter flu season.
Thing is, my last jab (the second) was May 2020.
I do wonder what combination of lessening of virulence and jab longevity meant that my symptoms were not even meh.
Both my closest two do not have male or female changing areas.
Or it used to be.
1) Everyone knows where they stand
2) the area is likely to be busier than it otherwise would be
They may be boring and/or painful.
But you'll appreciate it in later life.
The point is though that individuals are affected differently, and cannot sensibly know in advance how they will react.
The Globe makes far more sense than Stratford, which is indeed a hideous tourist trap with only occasional excellent theatre (the current R III production being an example, I think).
Lots of older people will get the booster. Most younger people won't bother.
I'd quite like the worried well, maybe under 50s and with no health conditions, to be charged for future boosters...
https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1539882196118511620?s=20&t=JsUPRV3iX3tU2ZWxIuONbg
Quite incredible really, to consider how dreadful the batting was for England in the winter to now potentially achieve that first - and in a three Test series.
The two best Shakespeare productions I've seen, by some distance, were in ... Bolton and Santa Cruz.
Allowing pharmacies to distribute them, and paying them (say) £5/jab for the injection, is going to have negligible costs, and likely is very cost effective if it stops a 75 year old from getting seriously sick. Is it worth it for a healthy 25 year old who has already had Covid twice? Probably not. But it's probably better to let people make their own decisions.
His innings this test have been the equivalent of smashing into the reds on break and clearing up.
NHS shouldn't grind to a halt because Docs and Nurses are giving jabs IMO....
Feels a bit boring politics now - with the by-elections done and it already being late June, what points of interest are going to come up?
I can guess the rough identity of who they had planned as a replacement
https://t.co/0lVqUpfnWX
One of the most satisfying Test series I’ve ever watched
Second innings Run Rate - 5.44
It's going to blow up in their faces against India, isn't it? Not because it is a good idea then?
Back on the progressive alliance, perhaps this time if they come up with a new name for it it'll finally happen?
Sassoon died in 1967 I think and is buried at Mells in Somerset (easy to think he died in WW1)
SPLASHING along the boggy woods all day,
And over brambled hedge and holding clay,
I shall not think of him:
But when the watery fields grow brown and dim,
And hounds have lost their fox, and horses tire, 5
I know that he’ll be with me on my way
Home through the darkness to the evening fire.
He’s jumped each stile along the glistening lanes;
His hand will be upon the mud-soaked reins;
Hearing the saddle creak, 10
He’ll wonder if the frost will come next week.
I shall forget him in the morning light;
And while we gallop on he will not speak:
But at the stable-door he’ll say good-night.
Downloaded the app and there is an *awful* lot of data importing and sharing requests from them. Anyone on here used/use them?
Incredible turn around.
The juxtaposition of thoughtless fox hunting and merciless trench warfare is inspired
No l am not watching. I genuinely don’t understand test cricket and am leaving it for my retirement along with Wagner’s Ring Cycle.
I doubt whether Johnson cares if it's effective or even if it's actually ever done. Take the headline and move on.
Seems to be enjoyed quite a bit by numbers and politics nerds, cyclefree and Sunil excepted.
Finger-crossed.
Our friends tested positive the day they were due to fly out to Botswana for a safari a couple of weeks ago. Gutted doesn't begin to describe it.
1. In four of the five cases cited, Labour was the incumbent party, so both Tory and Lib Dems were unified in not wanting the incumbent back in. This partly explains second choices. The only case where the Tory was the incumbent, Cambridgeshire, is the one where Lib Dems overwhelmingly backed Labour as second choice. Given advocates for a progressive alliance generally want it in Tory held marginals, you'd expect these to have far more in common with Cambridgeshire than the other cases cited.
2. A progressive alliance involves explicit endorsement of one party by another in a seat. Of course, you'd not expect all Lib Dems to pay attention to an endorsement by the Lib Dems of a Labour candidate - quite a few wouldn't. But you have to suspect that some of the people who voted Lib Dem first, Tory second, would follow the recommendation in such circumstances. So the figures for the split in the examples cited are very probably over-generous to the Tories - a ceiling on the Lib Dems they'd win over, not a floor.
3. All five examples given involve more Lib Dems going for Labour as second choice than the Conservatives. So they suggest that (even ignoring points 1 and 2) Lib Dems standing down would help Labour. It may very well not help nearly as much as advocates for a progressive alliance claim and you can't just add the Lib Dem vote to the Labour vote but, in a marginal seat, small differences matter. None of the five cases suggest Lib Dems standing down would harm the "progressive" candidate.
So yes, it's inconvenient for a simplistic advocate of a progressive alliance that you can't just add the Labour and Lib Dem votes together. But none of it suggests that they are wrong that their suggestion would help to beat the Tories.
There are arguments against a progressive alliance. You can say it limits choice. You can say people resent it and may vote Tory just to spite you (I've seen precious little evidence this is realistic, but accept it's possible). But the evidence OGH has presented is actually broadly supportive of it.