The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
Another one who has clearly been out too long in the heat.
We've had the post-Platinum Jubilee euphoria and no real dramatic developments about anything anywhere. The numbers are settling back to Lab 40, Con 35, LD 10 Others 15 which is where they've been for a while. There's no point micro-analysing every poll or each week's local by-election results to divine some trend.
The next thing not to do is look at the future through the prism of the past - this Parliament is, I would argue, unique in having a major disruptive event for most of the first half of its existence and now economic events not witnesses for some 30 years. Taking a 1% Conservative rise and assuming Johnson will be re-elected is evidence of mental overheating.
By the way, talking about yourself in the third person - nah....
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
It'll end up 5% i reckon. Unless the BoE grows a set and puts 2% plus on rates sharpish. Anyone who hasnt fixed their mortgage rate should be doing so in very short order.
I have a feeling a bit like government approach to covid they will keep waiting that extra bit of time hoping something turns up only to result in more pain later.
My first thought is Zelenskyy would be fighting his war more effectively if he didn't have queues of western leaders showing up at his door. "Just send the missiles and weapons to Severodonetsk" should be all that's needed.
Public sector pay is going to be very awkward - with Councils still dealing with the financial impact of the pandemic, the last thing any of them could afford would be a 5% pay rise for example. That said, I imagine there'll be plenty of sympathy for NHS workers in particular and there's plenty of low pay in other parts of the public sector as well as recruitment problems.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
Normally, yes. But we have this strange stagnation where people leaving the job market voluntarily has meant that recruitment everywhere is still tight.
Also, the growth of flexible white collar work has undercut two of the advantages of teaching- that there are schools everywhere and the holidays are family-friendly.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just to add - since the government, in one of the many extraordinary cockups the DfE made after having had one of their wilder parties, has effectively eliminated all teacher training from that latter year, I think you're optimistic to assume higher recruitment figures for teacher training numbers.
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
Another one who has clearly been out too long in the heat.
We've had the post-Platinum Jubilee euphoria and no real dramatic developments about anything anywhere. The numbers are settling back to Lab 40, Con 35, LD 10 Others 15 which is where they've been for a while. There's no point micro-analysing every poll or each week's local by-election results to divine some trend.
The next thing not to do is look at the future through the prism of the past - this Parliament is, I would argue, unique in having a major disruptive event for most of the first half of its existence and now economic events not witnesses for some 30 years. Taking a 1% Conservative rise and assuming Johnson will be re-elected is evidence of mental overheating.
By the way, talking about yourself in the third person - nah....
Wise words and projecting polls forward 2 plus years is comfort for some but in reality who knows
2 years ago my wife and I did not realise that we are today selling her car due to health and mobility issues which is a big step having had her own car for 55 years
We do not know what tomorrow brings let alone 2024
Totally agree, there will be real pressure for Labour to elect its first female leader, but Wes Streeting is very impressive and the stand out candidate that should really worry the Conservatives. I still cannot comprehend how anyone in the Labour party thought that Keir Starmer was the answer to a newly elected Boris Johnson in 2020, he didn't set the heather on fire in Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet.
And they were “defaced” with crosses by the Armenians 1700 years ago?!
Yep
And you’re just leaning back against one drinking wine as the sun sets over the Caucasus?
Yep
At 2000 metres?
Yep
And the wine is from the areni grape which is the oldest in the world, traces of which have been found in the oldest winery in the world, down in a cave in the valley 30km away?
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
Another one who has clearly been out too long in the heat.
We've had the post-Platinum Jubilee euphoria and no real dramatic developments about anything anywhere. The numbers are settling back to Lab 40, Con 35, LD 10 Others 15 which is where they've been for a while. There's no point micro-analysing every poll or each week's local by-election results to divine some trend.
The next thing not to do is look at the future through the prism of the past - this Parliament is, I would argue, unique in having a major disruptive event for most of the first half of its existence and now economic events not witnesses for some 30 years. Taking a 1% Conservative rise and assuming Johnson will be re-elected is evidence of mental overheating.
By the way, talking about yourself in the third person - nah....
No point you say but it is enjoyable. So there is that point to it. People are of course free to ignore the musings or to pick out any trivial thing that informs them in some way. An individual local by election tells us nothing but over a month a half dozen in the north and ditto the south and the inklings of patterns appear. Ditto polls. One us nothing, a few over 2/3 weeks etc,... and you start to look for 'things' often because of one thing in one poll that makes you sit up
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just to add - since the government, in one of the many extraordinary cockups the DfE made after having had one of their wilder parties, has effectively eliminated all teacher training from that latter year, I think you're optimistic to assume higher recruitment figures for teacher training numbers.
And they were defaced with crosses by the Armenians 1700 years ago?!
Yep
And you’re just leaning back against one drinking wine as the sun sets over the Caucasus?
Yep
At 2000 metres?
Yep
And the wine is from the areni grape which is the oldest in the world, traces of which have been found in the oldest winery in the world, down in a cave in the valley 30km away?
Twitter Stephen Pollard@stephenpollard·16m I know it's deflection. I know he should have resigned. But it matters hugely to the Ukrainians that Johnson is there today, and in the circumstances today that's what matters.
How does he think he knows that?
I don't think there is any doubts that Boris is more popular among Ukrainians than he is with UK voters and parts of his own party right now.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just to add - since the government, in one of the many extraordinary cockups the DfE made after having had one of their wilder parties, has effectively eliminated all teacher training from that latter year, I think you're optimistic to assume higher recruitment figures for teacher training numbers.
But - even better than this - since the only providers they were going to allow to use the new framework have been kicked out in the first round, they will without a change of policy be closing all teacher training.
Which is quite incredible, but entirely typical of the fuckups made by the DfE.
I am slowly coming to the conclusion it must be malignity because not even a bunch of ex-public school Oxbridge graduates could be this stupid.
Controversial opinion....Eoin Morgan should be dropped from England ODI / T20 teams.
Drop Jason Roy first - although watching his colleagues get a world record score after he was out for a single, might do something for him. Morgan getting a duck let in Livingstone for his sensational innings.
I am usually not the biggest fan of England Cricket teams but even I think discussing which batsmen to drop after they have scored 498 in 50 overs is a bit of a discussion that need not be the most pressing to have!
The two batsmen that got one run between them, in the context of that record score?
well morgan did what he had to do at the stage he got in (ie swing it!) -sometimes you get out when you do that . As for Roy well he got one of those days when you get out cheaply on a road and watch the rest of your teammates swot around some pie chuckers. It happens!
And they were defaced with crosses by the Armenians 1700 years ago?!
Yep
And you’re just leaning back against one drinking wine as the sun sets over the Caucasus?
Yep
At 2000 metres?
Yep
And the wine is from the areni grape which is the oldest in the world, traces of which have been found in the oldest winery in the world, down in a cave in the valley 30km away?
My first thought is Zelenskyy would be fighting his war more effectively if he didn't have queues of western leaders showing up at his door. "Just send the missiles and weapons to Severodonetsk" should be all that's needed.
Public sector pay is going to be very awkward - with Councils still dealing with the financial impact of the pandemic, the last thing any of them could afford would be a 5% pay rise for example. That said, I imagine there'll be plenty of sympathy for NHS workers in particular and there's plenty of low pay in other parts of the public sector as well as recruitment problems.
5% seems to be the number in Scottish public services so far
Wow. I always knew you were a clever bloke Dr Prasannan but either you've gone a bit mad on the old qualifications or your faculty must be round for a party!
Late night Norwich news. Last night across the road (where there be dragons/a pub) i was entertained by the very loud sound of a man who could barely stay on his feet trying to fight a man who couldnt stand up while a man who had lost his depth perception tried to pull him away (or rather pull some air near to him away). It lacked a shrewish woman screaming about someone not being worth it. It ended predictably. With me guffawing. Ill bet they'd all had a lovely night till someone said something about someone one of them dated in the 80s (they were in their 60s id say which made it even funnier)
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's 2-3.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
My first thought is Zelenskyy would be fighting his war more effectively if he didn't have queues of western leaders showing up at his door. "Just send the missiles and weapons to Severodonetsk" should be all that's needed.
Public sector pay is going to be very awkward - with Councils still dealing with the financial impact of the pandemic, the last thing any of them could afford would be a 5% pay rise for example. That said, I imagine there'll be plenty of sympathy for NHS workers in particular and there's plenty of low pay in other parts of the public sector as well as recruitment problems.
5% seems to be the number in Scottish public services so far
The unions are less than thrilled with that, and no wonder. The UK Government, meanwhile, was talking about 3% for the English NHS a few months ago, and they're such a tight-fisted bunch they may very well try to ram that through.
As foreshadowed by the rail strikes, we are headed for a lot of industrial unrest at the rate things are going, across the public sector and in any private enterprises where unions still have some clout. In much of the rest of the private sector, employees won't have the option to bargain for a better deal but many will exploit labour shortages to dump stingy employers and sod off elsewhere. Fun and games...
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Nope. I made the mistake of enquiring on spec a couple of weeks ago. To say it was quite unlike any experience I have ever had of seeking work would be putting it mildly...
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
My first thought is Zelenskyy would be fighting his war more effectively if he didn't have queues of western leaders showing up at his door. "Just send the missiles and weapons to Severodonetsk" should be all that's needed.
Public sector pay is going to be very awkward - with Councils still dealing with the financial impact of the pandemic, the last thing any of them could afford would be a 5% pay rise for example. That said, I imagine there'll be plenty of sympathy for NHS workers in particular and there's plenty of low pay in other parts of the public sector as well as recruitment problems.
Here's the answer to these economic woes:
Tax
The
Wealthy
More
And yes, before anyone asks that would hit me. But I'm still not going to be worrying about weather to eat or heat my home this winter.
The Tories have given up on the North, I think they've concluded those seats have gone and they now have to defend the South
Been telling HYUFD for a year now, rural England has had it up to here with phatboi. Really quite hard to see what's left.
No it hasn't, any more than the inner cities gave up on Labour even over the last decade.
The vast majority of rural seats stayed Tory in the local elections for example
My blue-to-the-core father-in-law thinks Johnson is a fatuous lying oaf. He's always voted Tory but I honestly think he'll abstain or vote LD at the next GE. (Or maybe before the next GE, dependent on what happens to Warburton.)
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
Theresa May became leader because the *other* candidate (who also happened to be a woman), turned out to have exaggerated on her CV. (And because she said some very stupid things about motherhood.)
My first thought is Zelenskyy would be fighting his war more effectively if he didn't have queues of western leaders showing up at his door. "Just send the missiles and weapons to Severodonetsk" should be all that's needed.
Public sector pay is going to be very awkward - with Councils still dealing with the financial impact of the pandemic, the last thing any of them could afford would be a 5% pay rise for example. That said, I imagine there'll be plenty of sympathy for NHS workers in particular and there's plenty of low pay in other parts of the public sector as well as recruitment problems.
Here's the answer to these economic woes:
Tax
The
Wealthy
More
And yes, before anyone asks that would hit me. But I'm still not going to be worrying about weather to eat or heat my home this winter.
If that policy is going to be transformative then that has to include going after the principal store of wealth in this country, i.e. its hugely undertaxed housing stock (indeed, more broadly, I'd say that we should be properly soaking assets and actually cutting taxes on earned incomes, creating the net increase in tax take we need to deal with the vast and growing burden of old and knackered people, and the general state of decrepitude of our public services, whilst doing so in a fairer fashion.)
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
Theresa May became leader because the *other* candidate (who also happened to be a woman), turned out to have exaggerated on her CV. (And because she said some very stupid things about motherhood.)
And also because Boris withdrew from the race that time
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
May was chosen on merit.
Not her merit, mind, but that of her opponents
I believe very strongly that had her opponent been selected, we'd have enjoyed a far more fruitful time politically since then than we did.
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
And if he had not gone, people would have criticised him for not having met Zelensky when the German, Italian, Romanian and French leaders had. "Johnson only gets a phone call!"
Johnson's been doing the right thing wrt Ukraine, or at least Zelensky and Ukraine seem to think so. It's odd to have to praise Johnson, but it seems a little off to find dubious reasons to criticise him over it.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
This issue - demand chasing supply - is what has been going on with planning officers. The going rate for a basic planning officer now is £250 - £300 per day. These are long term contracts, too, 37 hours per week. Some Council's will take on "planning officers" with no professional qualifications or actual experience of planning at that rate. No idea how that works out in practice. Meanwhile the permanent staff are being paid about a third of this, in real terms, and subject to 1% annual pay rises, whilst the rate for agency staff is jumping massively week by week. On top of those rates quoted above, there is agency commission - probably 15 - 20%.
Council staff will eventually realise that the only way to get a pay rise, is to just hand in your notice and turn back up for work as a contractor, you get paid twice as much. Unless there are across the board 10% increases, the government will pay for its misjudgements and incompetence that way.
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
If Zelenskyy didn't want foreign leaders to come, he'd tell them not to come...
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
May was chosen on merit.
Not her merit, mind, but that of her opponents
I believe very strongly that had her opponent been selected, we'd have enjoyed a far more fruitful time politically since then than we did.
Because Leadsom was able to reach across both party lines and the bitterness created by the referendum, and could forge a united view on Brexit?
Not seeing it myself, but it's good to have a view.
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
Theresa May became leader because the *other* candidate (who also happened to be a woman), turned out to have exaggerated on her CV. (And because she said some very stupid things about motherhood.)
And also because Boris withdrew from the race that time
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
I quite enjoyed this vid of the German and Italian leaders on the Ukraine trip discussing why Macron had got the posh carriage and they were travelling steerage. And that their lingua franca is English .
New footage of Scholz, Macron and Draghi's night train ride to Kyiv just dropped. 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹
Scholz and Draghi are discussing that Macron's train compartment is much nicer than theirs, which is more "basic."
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
If Zelenskyy didn't want foreign leaders to come, he'd tell them not to come...
I'm not sure he's in a position to make demands of those whose goodwill he depends on.
🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol 👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies
Why? 💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote
#WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox
inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…
It's on
Sounds remarkably like what i suggested yesterday *buffs nails and fluffs enormous member* Getting the party to go along however......
Why would Johnson give a flying wotsit about what the Tory Party or his MPs think?
He doesn't need the agreement of the Tory Party, or the Cabinet, or the Commons to bring about a dissolution. He only needs the agreement of himself.
No, if the Tory party/cabinet do not support then under the Lascelles principles HMQ will refuse dissolution. And Johnson would be dismissed. The idea a PM can on his own decide to call a GE wuth no support is for the birds. If cabinet and a chunk of the party support then of course he can
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
If Zelenskyy didn't want foreign leaders to come, he'd tell them not to come...
And they'd say, No meet and greet and photo ops, no missiles and tanks and training programs.
🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol 👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies
Why? 💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote
#WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox
inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…
It's on
The last week has been a success?
Can we check the aircon in the Westminster bunker?
The heat seems to be sending them mad.
(The best thing for the Conservative Party might be a quick, and quickly thrown, election. Dump the World Of Pain on the Otherlot Party, aim to bounce back in 2027.
But that means admitting how screwed they are if they wait, even until Advent 2024. And it limits Johnson's tenure. Which is why he won't want to go early. Because he might well lose.)
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
May was chosen on merit.
Not her merit, mind, but that of her opponents
I believe very strongly that had her opponent been selected, we'd have enjoyed a far more fruitful time politically since then than we did.
Because Leadsom was able to reach across both party lines and the bitterness created by the referendum, and could forge a united view on Brexit?
Not seeing it myself, but admire your confidence.
I don't think she'd have been bad at reaching across party lines and assuaging some of the bitterness, but more pertinently, I think she would have made serious preparations for a No Deal scenario, which May and Hammond explicitly neglected to do. I also believe she'd have been sensible enough to avoid the snap election bear trap. So I think she would have secured a far more workable Brexit deal. It is absolutely vital in a negotiation to have the ability to walk away. We didn't have that ability, so it's hardly surprising we got May's deal, then Boris's.
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
If Zelenskyy didn't want foreign leaders to come, he'd tell them not to come...
I'm not sure he's in a position to make demands of those whose goodwill he depends on.
ISTR he did tell Macron not to come earlier in the war.
BTW, it seems my fears from yesterday were unfounded; the mood music from the big meeting is much more positive than I feared. It's possible Ukraine might get the support from Europe that it requires.
So the question is why? I mean, there are plenty of good reasons why Ukraine should be supported, but have Germany and Italy really put their own needs as a lesser priority?
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
This issue - demand chasing supply - is what has been going on with planning officers. The going rate for a basic planning officer now is £250 - £300 per day. These are long term contracts, too, 37 hours per week. Some Council's will take on "planning officers" with no professional qualifications or actual experience of planning at that rate. No idea how that works out in practice. Meanwhile the permanent staff are being paid about a third of this, in real terms, and subject to 1% annual pay rises, whilst the rate for agency staff is jumping massively week by week. On top of those rates quoted above, there is agency commission - probably 15 - 20%.
Council staff will eventually realise that the only way to get a pay rise, is to just hand in your notice and turn back up for work as a contractor, you get paid twice as much. Unless there are across the board 10% increases, the government will pay for its misjudgements and incompetence that way.
This is a widespread trend across the Public sector. It is an incredibly inefficient and expensive way to run them. In 5 years time there'll be only managers. To manage the agency staff.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
This issue - demand chasing supply - is what has been going on with planning officers. The going rate for a basic planning officer now is £250 - £300 per day. These are long term contracts, too, 37 hours per week. Some Council's will take on "planning officers" with no professional qualifications or actual experience of planning at that rate. No idea how that works out in practice. Meanwhile the permanent staff are being paid about a third of this, in real terms, and subject to 1% annual pay rises, whilst the rate for agency staff is jumping massively week by week. On top of those rates quoted above, there is agency commission - probably 15 - 20%.
Council staff will eventually realise that the only way to get a pay rise, is to just hand in your notice and turn back up for work as a contractor, you get paid twice as much. Unless there are across the board 10% increases, the government will pay for its misjudgements and incompetence that way.
I think comparisons with the Minimum Wage are a bit optimistic.
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
And if he had not gone, people would have criticised him for not having met Zelensky when the German, Italian, Romanian and French leaders had. "Johnson only gets a phone call!"
Johnson's been doing the right thing wrt Ukraine, or at least Zelensky and Ukraine seem to think so. It's odd to have to praise Johnson, but it seems a little off to find dubious reasons to criticise him over it.
Well they would think that wouldn't they, and say so of they know which side their bread is buttered. Plus it's this country of which Johnson is pm which is doing the right thing, so it only partly shores up his claim to sainthood.
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
May was chosen on merit.
Not her merit, mind, but that of her opponents
I believe very strongly that had her opponent been selected, we'd have enjoyed a far more fruitful time politically since then than we did.
Because Leadsom was able to reach across both party lines and the bitterness created by the referendum, and could forge a united view on Brexit?
Not seeing it myself, but it's good to have a view.
I think I agree with @Luckyguy1983, but for different reasons.
May would have won, because Leadsom was clearly mad and deluded. After all, the Conservative Party wasn't as Brexit Puritan then as it became.
And having won in a real (but unbalanced) fight, May would have been in a stronger position to push her vision through. Winning by default weakened her.
🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol 👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies
Why? 💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote
#WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox
inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…
It's on
The last week has been a success?
Can we check the aircon in the Westminster bunker?
The heat seems to be sending them mad.
(The best thing for the Conservative Party might be a quick, and quickly thrown, election. Dump the World Of Pain on the Otherlot Party, aim to bounce back in 2027.
But that means admitting how screwed they are if they wait, even until Advent 2024. And it limits Johnson's tenure. Which is why he won't want to go early. Because he might well lose.)
Best possible result for the Tories is 310 seats, let Labour run a clown college collective clusterfuck minority admin and destroy them in the inevitable election about 18 months later. And a very possible result on a very narrow tory lead if they can get there Thats if we are playing fuck the country, what about the party?
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
This issue - demand chasing supply - is what has been going on with planning officers. The going rate for a basic planning officer now is £250 - £300 per day. These are long term contracts, too, 37 hours per week. Some Council's will take on "planning officers" with no professional qualifications or actual experience of planning at that rate. No idea how that works out in practice. Meanwhile the permanent staff are being paid about a third of this, in real terms, and subject to 1% annual pay rises, whilst the rate for agency staff is jumping massively week by week. On top of those rates quoted above, there is agency commission - probably 15 - 20%.
Council staff will eventually realise that the only way to get a pay rise, is to just hand in your notice and turn back up for work as a contractor, you get paid twice as much. Unless there are across the board 10% increases, the government will pay for its misjudgements and incompetence that way.
Where do they advertise that work? Serious question as ISTR you raised it once before and it sounded interesting.
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
If Zelenskyy didn't want foreign leaders to come, he'd tell them not to come...
I'm not sure he's in a position to make demands of those whose goodwill he depends on.
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
I quite enjoyed this vid of the German and Italian leaders on the Ukraine trip discussing why Macron had got the posh carriage and they were travelling steerage. And that their lingua franca is English .
New footage of Scholz, Macron and Draghi's night train ride to Kyiv just dropped. 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹
Scholz and Draghi are discussing that Macron's train compartment is much nicer than theirs, which is more "basic."
🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol 👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies
Why? 💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote
#WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox
inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…
It's on
The last week has been a success?
Can we check the aircon in the Westminster bunker?
The heat seems to be sending them mad.
(The best thing for the Conservative Party might be a quick, and quickly thrown, election. Dump the World Of Pain on the Otherlot Party, aim to bounce back in 2027.
But that means admitting how screwed they are if they wait, even until Advent 2024. And it limits Johnson's tenure. Which is why he won't want to go early. Because he might well lose.)
Best possible result for the Tories is 310 seats, let Labour run a clown college collective clusterfuck minority admin and destroy them in the inevitable election about 18 months later. And a very possible result on a very narrow tory lead if they can get there Thats if we are playing fuck the country, what about the party?
True, though that ship probably sailed last autumn. Now, it looks like they have to play it long, and hope that something turns up.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
This issue - demand chasing supply - is what has been going on with planning officers. The going rate for a basic planning officer now is £250 - £300 per day. These are long term contracts, too, 37 hours per week. Some Council's will take on "planning officers" with no professional qualifications or actual experience of planning at that rate. No idea how that works out in practice. Meanwhile the permanent staff are being paid about a third of this, in real terms, and subject to 1% annual pay rises, whilst the rate for agency staff is jumping massively week by week. On top of those rates quoted above, there is agency commission - probably 15 - 20%.
Council staff will eventually realise that the only way to get a pay rise, is to just hand in your notice and turn back up for work as a contractor, you get paid twice as much. Unless there are across the board 10% increases, the government will pay for its misjudgements and incompetence that way.
This is a widespread trend across the Public sector. It is an incredibly inefficient and expensive way to run them. In 5 years time there'll be only managers. To manage the agency staff.
Its going that way already, but actually a lot of the time the managers are also contractors as well. The people who are left in permanent employment are often those who are the least competent, and who are impossible to sack. Council's also have a way of sacking the few very competent and experienced staff who have remained loyal to them, typically in the deluded belief that by getting them 'out of the way' and bringing in agency staff, the whole thing will miraculously improve. Inevitably they are proved wrong, and forced to pay the price.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
This issue - demand chasing supply - is what has been going on with planning officers. The going rate for a basic planning officer now is £250 - £300 per day. These are long term contracts, too, 37 hours per week. Some Council's will take on "planning officers" with no professional qualifications or actual experience of planning at that rate. No idea how that works out in practice. Meanwhile the permanent staff are being paid about a third of this, in real terms, and subject to 1% annual pay rises, whilst the rate for agency staff is jumping massively week by week. On top of those rates quoted above, there is agency commission - probably 15 - 20%.
Council staff will eventually realise that the only way to get a pay rise, is to just hand in your notice and turn back up for work as a contractor, you get paid twice as much. Unless there are across the board 10% increases, the government will pay for its misjudgements and incompetence that way.
Where do they advertise that work? Serious question as ISTR you raised it once before and it sounded interesting.
🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol 👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies
Why? 💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote
#WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox
inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…
It's on
The last week has been a success?
Can we check the aircon in the Westminster bunker?
The heat seems to be sending them mad.
(The best thing for the Conservative Party might be a quick, and quickly thrown, election. Dump the World Of Pain on the Otherlot Party, aim to bounce back in 2027.
But that means admitting how screwed they are if they wait, even until Advent 2024. And it limits Johnson's tenure. Which is why he won't want to go early. Because he might well lose.)
Best possible result for the Tories is 310 seats, let Labour run a clown college collective clusterfuck minority admin and destroy them in the inevitable election about 18 months later. And a very possible result on a very narrow tory lead if they can get there Thats if we are playing fuck the country, what about the party?
True, though that ship probably sailed last autumn. Now, it looks like they have to play it long, and hope that something turns up.
If theyd gone last (early) autumn hed have a smallish to moderate majority but the issues would not have been put to bed as all emerging afterwards.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
iirc a recession is always good for teacher training numbers as grads have nowhere else to apply.
I don't think that's going to compensate for the numbers leaving.
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
Just been looking at going back on supply from September. When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour. Now it's nearer 2-3.
Not going to be any shortage of work though!
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
This issue - demand chasing supply - is what has been going on with planning officers. The going rate for a basic planning officer now is £250 - £300 per day. These are long term contracts, too, 37 hours per week. Some Council's will take on "planning officers" with no professional qualifications or actual experience of planning at that rate. No idea how that works out in practice. Meanwhile the permanent staff are being paid about a third of this, in real terms, and subject to 1% annual pay rises, whilst the rate for agency staff is jumping massively week by week. On top of those rates quoted above, there is agency commission - probably 15 - 20%.
Council staff will eventually realise that the only way to get a pay rise, is to just hand in your notice and turn back up for work as a contractor, you get paid twice as much. Unless there are across the board 10% increases, the government will pay for its misjudgements and incompetence that way.
This is a widespread trend across the Public sector. It is an incredibly inefficient and expensive way to run them. In 5 years time there'll be only managers. To manage the agency staff.
If I had any sense I would take early retirement and come back as an Agency Locum on a couple of grand a day. Money for old rope it is.
Johnson was right to go to Ukraine. There's a war on.
And his going there (again) has helped how, exactly?
We all know he's only gone there because he's scared to campaign in the by-elections, and he needed a distraction from Geidt.
Very odd storty that Mr J has got Mr Williamson (of spider fame) to step down at next election so Mr J can have his safe seat rather than Uxbridge. NO idea if it is true.
Johnson could quite easily have done that on the phone from Doncaster. But no, he has to go out there and get his paws all over Zelensky. And this after Macron's prolonged mauling of the man yesterday. My heart goes out to him. To this Ukrainian president who is leading his nation in war when not having to fend off all these lascivious grins, firm squeezes and wandering hands.
I quite enjoyed this vid of the German and Italian leaders on the Ukraine trip discussing why Macron had got the posh carriage and they were travelling steerage. And that their lingua franca is English .
New footage of Scholz, Macron and Draghi's night train ride to Kyiv just dropped. 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹
Scholz and Draghi are discussing that Macron's train compartment is much nicer than theirs, which is more "basic."
🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol 👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies
Why? 💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote
#WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox
inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…
It's on
The last week has been a success?
Can we check the aircon in the Westminster bunker?
The heat seems to be sending them mad.
(The best thing for the Conservative Party might be a quick, and quickly thrown, election. Dump the World Of Pain on the Otherlot Party, aim to bounce back in 2027.
But that means admitting how screwed they are if they wait, even until Advent 2024. And it limits Johnson's tenure. Which is why he won't want to go early. Because he might well lose.)
Best possible result for the Tories is 310 seats, let Labour run a clown college collective clusterfuck minority admin and destroy them in the inevitable election about 18 months later. And a very possible result on a very narrow tory lead if they can get there Thats if we are playing fuck the country, what about the party?
If the Conservatives get that close to a majority then they get put back into bat and Starmer resigns. There's absolutely nothing to stop Labour from acknowledging that they've lost the election, giving the Government six more months to be generally useless and screw up, and then pick its moment to call a vote of confidence and have a rematch with someone else in charge.
We don't get a Labour minority until the two large parties are at least somewhere close to parity and Labour can therefore get comfortably over the finishing line with the help of only one or two partners. They're not going to be stupid enough to leave themselves having to try to finesse everything with a constellation of six or seven parties.
"The Prime Minister has offered to launch a major training operation for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days."
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
May was chosen on merit.
Not her merit, mind, but that of her opponents
I believe very strongly that had her opponent been selected, we'd have enjoyed a far more fruitful time politically since then than we did.
Because Leadsom was able to reach across both party lines and the bitterness created by the referendum, and could forge a united view on Brexit?
Not seeing it myself, but it's good to have a view.
I think I agree with @Luckyguy1983, but for different reasons.
May would have won, because Leadsom was clearly mad and deluded. After all, the Conservative Party wasn't as Brexit Puritan then as it became.
And having won in a real (but unbalanced) fight, May would have been in a stronger position to push her vision through. Winning by default weakened her.
Since she held down several Ministerial positions subsequently, and is still a respected MP, I think it's pretty clear that 'mad and deluded' here translates fairly simply as 'opposed to my own world view'. Reading on to find apparently unironic references to May and 'vision' on the same sentence, I'm not really sure what to engage with here in terms of a serious argument. I am not one of the lady's detractors - she did her best, but visionary she was not. And in the end she was cruelly found wanting.
Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
May was chosen on merit.
Not her merit, mind, but that of her opponents
I believe very strongly that had her opponent been selected, we'd have enjoyed a far more fruitful time politically since then than we did.
Because Leadsom was able to reach across both party lines and the bitterness created by the referendum, and could forge a united view on Brexit?
Not seeing it myself, but it's good to have a view.
I think I agree with @Luckyguy1983, but for different reasons.
May would have won, because Leadsom was clearly mad and deluded. After all, the Conservative Party wasn't as Brexit Puritan then as it became.
And having won in a real (but unbalanced) fight, May would have been in a stronger position to push her vision through. Winning by default weakened her.
Biggest mistake Theresa May made when she became party leader and PM was to sack George Osborne in the petty way she did, she should have kept him in a senior role in Cabinet and sacked her two closest advisers instead. Osborne was far more politically astute than those two put together..
Johnson was right to go to Ukraine. There's a war on.
And his going there (again) has helped how, exactly?
We all know he's only gone there because he's scared to campaign in the by-elections, and he needed a distraction from Geidt.
Very odd storty that Mr J has got Mr Williamson (of spider fame) to step down at next election so Mr J can have his safe seat rather than Uxbridge. NO idea if it is true.
Johnson was right to go to Ukraine. There's a war on.
And his going there (again) has helped how, exactly?
We all know he's only gone there because he's scared to campaign in the by-elections, and he needed a distraction from Geidt.
Quite obviously so. He didn't want to be booed by the NRG for saying "you're on your own, there's no money"
No need for the PM to go to Ukraine, it isn't as if he has any grasp of detail, that needs Wallace for policy, and some senior MoD and Army staff for the details.
Comments
Euromaidan Press
@EuromaidanPress
UK armed forces chief says Putin has 'strategically lost' war in Ukraine
🇷🇺used 25% of its army to gain a tiny amount of territory. Any notion that this is a success for Russia's nonsense. Russia is failing-🇬🇧Admiral Sir Tony Radakin stressed-SkyNews http://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-has-strategically-lost-and-any-notion-they-have-been-successful-is-nonsense-top-military-chief-says-12635312
We've had the post-Platinum Jubilee euphoria and no real dramatic developments about anything anywhere. The numbers are settling back to Lab 40, Con 35, LD 10 Others 15 which is where they've been for a while. There's no point micro-analysing every poll or each week's local by-election results to divine some trend.
The next thing not to do is look at the future through the prism of the past - this Parliament is, I would argue, unique in having a major disruptive event for most of the first half of its existence and now economic events not witnesses for some 30 years. Taking a 1% Conservative rise and assuming Johnson will be re-elected is evidence of mental overheating.
By the way, talking about yourself in the third person - nah....
In any case, the crunch is on us this year and next year. Too late for training numbers in 2024-25 to make a difference.
My first thought is Zelenskyy would be fighting his war more effectively if he didn't have queues of western leaders showing up at his door. "Just send the missiles and weapons to Severodonetsk" should be all that's needed.
Public sector pay is going to be very awkward - with Councils still dealing with the financial impact of the pandemic, the last thing any of them could afford would be a 5% pay rise for example. That said, I imagine there'll be plenty of sympathy for NHS workers in particular and there's plenty of low pay in other parts of the public sector as well as recruitment problems.
their matessuitably qualified candidates out of a hat, like Unite do!Spoiler - dont pick him.
Also, the growth of flexible white collar work has undercut two of the advantages of teaching- that there are schools everywhere and the holidays are family-friendly.
So good luck with that pay cap, government.
2 years ago my wife and I did not realise that we are today selling her car due to health and mobility issues which is a big step having had her own car for 55 years
We do not know what tomorrow brings let alone 2024
Yep
And they were “defaced” with crosses by the Armenians 1700 years ago?!
Yep
And you’re just leaning back against one drinking wine as the sun sets over the Caucasus?
Yep
At 2000 metres?
Yep
And the wine is from the areni grape which is the oldest in the world, traces of which have been found in the oldest winery in the world, down in a cave in the valley 30km away?
Er, yep
Are there wild horses?
Yep
And possibly a wildcat?
Maybe
An individual local by election tells us nothing but over a month a half dozen in the north and ditto the south and the inklings of patterns appear. Ditto polls. One us nothing, a few over 2/3 weeks etc,... and you start to look for 'things' often because of one thing in one poll that makes you sit up
Yep
Am i over the drink drive limit
.....
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/just-1-in-3-teacher-trainers-re-accredited-after-first-review-round/
But - even better than this - since the only providers they were going to allow to use the new framework have been kicked out in the first round, they will without a change of policy be closing all teacher training.
Which is quite incredible, but entirely typical of the fuckups made by the DfE.
I am slowly coming to the conclusion it must be malignity because not even a bunch of ex-public school Oxbridge graduates could be this stupid.
Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky
NEW:
Letter from Lord Geidt toughens language on why he quit
He says he “could not be party to advising on potential law breaking”
Admits his resignation letter may have been too cautious
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1537841026123149312
It lacked a shrewish woman screaming about someone not being worth it.
It ended predictably. With me guffawing.
Ill bet they'd all had a lovely night till someone said something about someone one of them dated in the 80s (they were in their 60s id say which made it even funnier)
Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky·1m
Lord Geidt saying - loudly and clearly - my resignation was not about steel
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1537841026123149312
When I first qualified in 2001 it was 6-7 times the minimum wage per hour.
Now it's 2-3.
Edit - I have a feeling supply teacher rates will be going up too, as demand chases supply (no pun intended). Lots went and got other work in the lockdowns, the ones that stay are at a premium no matter how shit they are.
£160 was the daily rate an agency was paying round here, so schools must be paying pushing £240.
Get yourself a portable DBS and write to a dozen schools in your area that you know to be OK-ish offering £200 and I reckon you'll have all the work you'll want.
You may decide you don't want it after a short while given how far discipline has collapsed!
In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky·1m
Translation of Lord Geidt letter into English:
<<Sorry I didn’t do the resignation properly. I missed the mic drop moment. Here’s me having another go>>
As foreshadowed by the rail strikes, we are headed for a lot of industrial unrest at the rate things are going, across the public sector and in any private enterprises where unions still have some clout. In much of the rest of the private sector, employees won't have the option to bargain for a better deal but many will exploit labour shortages to dump stingy employers and sod off elsewhere. Fun and games...
The vast majority of rural seats stayed Tory in the local elections for example
I made the mistake of enquiring on spec a couple of weeks ago.
To say it was quite unlike any experience I have ever had of seeking work would be putting it mildly...
Not her merit, mind, but that of her opponents
👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies
Why?
💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote
#WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox
inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…
It's on
Tax
The
Wealthy
More
And yes, before anyone asks that would hit me. But I'm still not going to be worrying about weather to eat or heat my home this winter.
167 guesses, which is not as quick as yesterday, but got there in the end. It was guess 117 that really opened it up.
HOWEVER - the politicians won't touch houses.
So on we go, spiralling down the plughole.
Letter from Lord Geidt toughens language on why he quit
He says he “could not be party to advising on potential law breaking”
Admits his resignation letter may have been too cautious
Getting the party to go along however......
Still not you
He doesn't need the agreement of the Tory Party, or the Cabinet, or the Commons to bring about a dissolution. He only needs the agreement of himself.
Johnson's been doing the right thing wrt Ukraine, or at least Zelensky and Ukraine seem to think so. It's odd to have to praise Johnson, but it seems a little off to find dubious reasons to criticise him over it.
This issue - demand chasing supply - is what has been going on with planning officers. The going rate for a basic planning officer now is £250 - £300 per day. These are long term contracts, too, 37 hours per week. Some Council's will take on "planning officers" with no professional qualifications or actual experience of planning at that rate. No idea how that works out in practice. Meanwhile the permanent staff are being paid about a third of this, in real terms, and subject to 1% annual pay rises, whilst the rate for agency staff is jumping massively week by week. On top of those rates quoted above, there is agency commission - probably 15 - 20%.
Council staff will eventually realise that the only way to get a pay rise, is to just hand in your notice and turn back up for work as a contractor, you get paid twice as much. Unless there are across the board 10% increases, the government will pay for its misjudgements and incompetence that way.
Not seeing it myself, but it's good to have a view.
discussing why Macron had got the posh carriage and they were travelling steerage. And that their lingua franca is English
New footage of Scholz, Macron and Draghi's night train ride to Kyiv just dropped. 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹
Scholz and Draghi are discussing that Macron's train compartment is much nicer than theirs, which is more "basic."
"On the other hand," Draghi quips, Macron is "the President of the Union."
https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1537359934760923140
If cabinet and a chunk of the party support then of course he can
Can we check the aircon in the Westminster bunker?
The heat seems to be sending them mad.
(The best thing for the Conservative Party might be a quick, and quickly thrown, election. Dump the World Of Pain on the Otherlot Party, aim to bounce back in 2027.
But that means admitting how screwed they are if they wait, even until Advent 2024. And it limits Johnson's tenure. Which is why he won't want to go early. Because he might well lose.)
BTW, it seems my fears from yesterday were unfounded; the mood music from the big meeting is much more positive than I feared. It's possible Ukraine might get the support from Europe that it requires.
So the question is why? I mean, there are plenty of good reasons why Ukraine should be supported, but have Germany and Italy really put their own needs as a lesser priority?
It is an incredibly inefficient and expensive way to run them.
In 5 years time there'll be only managers. To manage the agency staff.
But the best of luck !
May would have won, because Leadsom was clearly mad and deluded. After all, the Conservative Party wasn't as Brexit Puritan then as it became.
And having won in a real (but unbalanced) fight, May would have been in a stronger position to push her vision through. Winning by default weakened her.
And a very possible result on a very narrow tory lead if they can get there
Thats if we are playing fuck the country, what about the party?
And an SLD revival has more upsides for the SNP than downsides. An SLD surge is Ross’s worst nightmare.
We all know he's only gone there because he's scared to campaign in the by-elections, and he needed a distraction from Geidt.
https://twitter.com/GavinWilliamson/status/1537835965074513920?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1537835965074513920|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/17/boris-johnson-lord-geidt-uk-politics-live-latest?filterKeyEvents=falsepage=with:block-62ac6a6a8f08f2b5ecc6a2b4top-of-blog
I don't know how accurate that is these days.
We don't get a Labour minority until the two large parties are at least somewhere close to parity and Labour can therefore get comfortably over the finishing line with the help of only one or two partners. They're not going to be stupid enough to leave themselves having to try to finesse everything with a constellation of six or seven parties.
"The Prime Minister has offered to launch a major training operation for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days."
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination
Quite a commitment.
...and it looks like Johnson may have forgotten to tell Gav of the sacrifice he is going to make.
If it was the case in November, that would be a story.
No need for the PM to go to Ukraine, it isn't as if he has any grasp of detail, that needs Wallace for policy, and some senior MoD and Army staff for the details.
Think of Kyiv as a very large fridge to hide in.