So polling wise we have opinium lead of 2 and everyone else 6 to 8. Onky exceltion Deltapoll who gavent released since April. Pattern very set at the moment. Still LOLing at ukip at 3% in the survation PR. AS IF!!
https://phys.org/news/2022-06-giant-radio-telescope-china-aliens.html ...With such a large collecting area, FAST can pick up incredibly faint signals. It is about 20 times more sensitive than Australia's Murriyang telescope at the Parkes Radio Observatory. FAST could easily detect a transmitter on a nearby exoplanet with a similar output power to radar systems we have here on Earth.
The trouble with being so sensitive is that you can uncover radio interference that would otherwise be too faint to detect. We SETI researchers have had this problem before.
Last year, using Murriyang, we detected an extremely interesting signal we called BLC1.
However, it turned out to be very strange interference (not aliens). To uncover its true nature, we had to develop a new verification framework.
With BLC1, it took about a year from when it was initially reported to when peer-reviewed analysis was published. Similarly, we may need to wait a while for the FAST signal to be analyzed in depth.
Professor Zhang Tongjie, chief scientist for the China Extraterrestrial Civilization Research Group, acknowledged this in the Science & Technology Daily report: "The possibility that the suspicious signal is some kind of radio interference is also very high, and it needs to be further confirmed and ruled out. This may be a long process."...
Zhang Tongjie, eh? Sounds... Chinese...
Aren't you worried she's running Gain of Function experiments with the aliens, and before you know there'll be billions of the bastards?
With an attitude like that the tories are in for a real kicking in T&H, despite @MoonRabbit 's wobbles.
The only vague chance the tories would have had there would be a candidate who totally disowned the wicked clown in No.10.
It's going to be a massive LibDem win: well in excess of 10% ahead.
How many by-election losers are ever heard of again?
There was Blair in 1982, but apart from that?
I guess what I'm wondering is whether being a Conservative by-election candidate right now is a one-way ticket to Obscurityville, and that's enough to put off the capable and ambitious.
Phil Hammond lost the 1994 Newham North East by-election. He was Chancellor of the Exchequer a few years back.
Kwasi Kwarteng was the candidate in the Brent East campaign where Sarah Teather won.
Twitter Katy Balls@katyballs·9m Sense among some Tory MPs that Boris Johnson pulling out of the Northern Research Group conference to go to Kyiv could backfire with the party
It was viewed as a chance to show he was taking MPs' domestic worries seriously
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
The one thing (and it's rather a big thing) counting against the panic distraction tactic theory is that it assumes that the Ukrainians have a standing plan for getting the UK Prime Minister into the country and into a meeting with their President at the drop of a hat, whenever Johnson picks up whatever we are to call the Zelenskyy equivalent of the Batphone.
This strikes one as implausible. The Ukrainian Government appears to be quite appreciative of Boris Johnson, but they do have one or two other things on their plate right now.
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
This poll tells you nothing other than confirming the existence of MoE.
Unless you are HYUFD, in that case it is a whopping 1% swing to Cons.
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
Post-Alpha covid low, “Its coming home”, vaccine program humming along, restrictions dropped mostly. The feel good factor was high.
Greetings Earthlings. Scorchio lunch done and home to melt. In nutjob news Germany is considering making masks compulsory indoors every year from October till Easter. Its for your 'health' you know. Last nights by elections quite interesting.comfy Labour hold in Warwick, comfy Tory hold in Rother with strong LD showing too, labour hold in Sunderland but net swing to Tory and an indy and the Tories picked up a Wyre forest area seat KHHC abandoned. Tory vote holding up ok in the red wall wards contested. Small data points though. Survation have a poll including PR question/VI later Germany. Lol @ the mask addicts
Please tell me that’s a joke about Germany
Nope read Die Welt
I honestly find it hard to get my head around. Mental
Even the East Asians - always pro-mask - have never made them ”compulsory indoors over winter” - every winter. Nowhere near it
The pandemic has sent quite a few people crazy. It is arguable it has sent smarter people crazier than stupid people, cf Brexit
Healthy people dont need masks. Sick people shouldn't be out. Masks are for those that wish to utliise their uselessness.
The Conservative candidate in the Tiverton & Honiton by-election was jeered and heckled by an angry crowd last night as she tried to dodge questions on Boris Johnson’s integrity
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
They like Johnson's non-po-faced attitude to life, in comparison to the puritanical alternatives. One explanation.
Our Dean of Faculty is somewhat cross with the PM (again). He has written him a letter:
"...To suggest that lawyers who act in immigration in Judicial Reviews are "abetting the work of criminal gangs" is wrong in law. It is fatuous. It is vacuous. And, most worringly, it is dangerous...Most reasonable people understand that resorting to law does not undermine confidence in the legal system; rather it shows a healthy legal system in action."
He's right, of course. A government that does not respect the rule of law itself is dangerous and undermines the constitutional foundations of our country.
Most people in this country want illegal immigration to be stopped. The attempt by lawyers to prevent that is doomed to failure. No-one accuses Australia of being racist because they've stopped illegal immigration.
Are you saying lawyers shouldn't take appeal cases from rejected asylum applicants?
Because the government and civil servants are perfect; they aren't going to get every decision right. Occasionally, there will be evidence that was missed, and there needs to be an appeals process.
The one thing (and it's rather a big thing) counting against the panic distraction tactic theory is that it assumes that the Ukrainians have a standing plan for getting the UK Prime Minister into the country and into a meeting with their President at the drop of a hat, whenever Johnson picks up whatever we are to call the Zelenskyy equivalent of the Batphone.
This strikes one as implausible. The Ukrainian Government appears to be quite appreciative of Boris Johnson, but they do have one or two other things on their plate right now.
OTOH consider whether things like Geidt can be timed to be announced the day beforehand.
The Conservative candidate in the Tiverton & Honiton by-election was jeered and heckled by an angry crowd last night as she tried to dodge questions on Boris Johnson’s integrity
Twitter Katy Balls@katyballs·9m Sense among some Tory MPs that Boris Johnson pulling out of the Northern Research Group conference to go to Kyiv could backfire with the party
It was viewed as a chance to show he was taking MPs' domestic worries seriously
It feels a bit Brown to Iraq during Tory conference cynical
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
Last nights local by elections offer tentative support for 'tories stabilising' too albeit in miniature, but next week i think we will see a proper voter protest. That in itself may shift the polling a bit short term.
They're all pretty poor candidates in my view - but the Tory has to be most stereotypical uncaring, condescending Karen I've ever seen. If this is the future of the party I am sad.
The one thing (and it's rather a big thing) counting against the panic distraction tactic theory is that it assumes that the Ukrainians have a standing plan for getting the UK Prime Minister into the country and into a meeting with their President at the drop of a hat, whenever Johnson picks up whatever we are to call the Zelenskyy equivalent of the Batphone.
This strikes one as implausible. The Ukrainian Government appears to be quite appreciative of Boris Johnson, but they do have one or two other things on their plate right now.
OTOH consider whether things like Geidt can be timed to be announced the day beforehand.
Possibly, if Geidt himself were feeling sufficiently cooperative.
Set against that, the rather obvious point that Sandpit has just made: announcing your precise schedule for travelling to Kyiv in advance may not be a good idea, therefore pretend plans may be made which are subsequently cancelled. Or, genuine plans are made and then have to be ditched when a convenient time to visit Zelenskyy is found.
I think almost everyone now agrees that our Prime Minister is a shit, but his being a shit isn't the explanation for everything that ever happens.
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
To be honest RCS, although we both admit there is an uptick, and todays polls possibly not on graph yet, I predicted a down tick. Why on earth is it an uptick since the vonc - and is it going to continue up ticking and recovering against this backdrop that suggests it should down tick?
Which brings us onto Romfords question, what is the psychology of the voters?
Maybe it just boils down in voters minds to either him or him - and only one of them has charisma, the necessary brass neck for politics, and a bit of oomph needed to get things done?
What is the number one thing human beings are sub consciously looking for in a mate? Scars. Because we want to be with someone who can keep us safe. I met my other half when she was teaching kick boxing and self defence classes.
Maybe it’s a fault with our own psychology, we see what we want to, hence missing something? Take one example. Say we had a hundred people there when Boris was booed last week, normally 40 out of hundred won’t boo, they just won’t clap as politely as others, we presumed more were booing than was booing, we presumed it was significant. In reality Boris was two or so people more popular over the last two weeks despite the boo.
Or maybe the next election simply turned the moment recently, when Boris had his hair transplant.
I put my hand up and admit I was wrong. I predicted June narrative, back drop of cost of living crisis, ideal for a down tick, the share is uptick. Boris personal ratings up tick.
I can’t explain it. It’s a mad hatters tea party. 🤦♀️
Do you support deporting migrants to Rwanda? @NickFerrariLBC, @RachelSJohnson and @DavidLammy clash over the policy in LBC’s new debate show The Agenda. 📺 Watch in full ⬇️ l-bc.co/3MYURE3
With an attitude like that the tories are in for a real kicking in T&H, despite @MoonRabbit 's wobbles.
The only vague chance the tories would have had there would be a candidate who totally disowned the wicked clown in No.10.
It's going to be a massive LibDem win: well in excess of 10% ahead.
How many by-election losers are ever heard of again?
There was Blair in 1982, but apart from that?
I guess what I'm wondering is whether being a Conservative by-election candidate right now is a one-way ticket to Obscurityville, and that's enough to put off the capable and ambitious.
Phil Hammond lost the 1994 Newham North East by-election. He was Chancellor of the Exchequer a few years back.
Kwasi Kwarteng was the candidate in the Brent East campaign where Sarah Teather won.
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
A parishioner now sadly absent - @isam - (can we have him back, please?) - has persuasively argued, with adduced evidence, that the Tory vote over the pandemic - after the initial horror - has closely followed our successes or failures against Covid, esp deaths
I suspect that correlation has now weakened if not disappeared, but it was a thing
Labour is more trusted on immigration than the Tories
Labour is more trusted on the economy than the Tories - or is slightly behind or tied
This is what was happening in a mirror image, prior to GE19. I argued consistently against these sorts of metrics then and they proved to be right. So what has changed.
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
Last nights local by elections offer tentative support for 'tories stabilising' too albeit in miniature, but next week i think we will see a proper voter protest. That in itself may shift the polling a bit short term.
If he holds Horney Town, albeit narrowly, it will just boost his comeback momentum.
Greetings Earthlings. Scorchio lunch done and home to melt. In nutjob news Germany is considering making masks compulsory indoors every year from October till Easter. Its for your 'health' you know. Last nights by elections quite interesting.comfy Labour hold in Warwick, comfy Tory hold in Rother with strong LD showing too, labour hold in Sunderland but net swing to Tory and an indy and the Tories picked up a Wyre forest area seat KHHC abandoned. Tory vote holding up ok in the red wall wards contested. Small data points though. Survation have a poll including PR question/VI later Germany. Lol @ the mask addicts
Please tell me that’s a joke about Germany
Re Germany: I'm sure someone has suggested it, but that's a long way away from "Germany is considering" it.
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
A parishioner now sadly absent - @isam - (can we have him back, please?) - has persuasively argued, with adduced evidence, that the Tory vote over the pandemic - after the initial horror - has closely followed our successes or failures against Covid, esp deaths
I suspect that correlation has now weakened if not disappeared, but it was a thing
I think isam is right. But that suggests - as I said at the time - that this Government and Johnson are not popular. And they never were.
I think almost everyone now agrees that our Prime Minister is a shit, but his being a shit isn't the explanation for everything that ever happens.
No, but him being a shit explains a lot of what happens around him. A LOT of what happens around him...
Maybe you are reading too much into him being a shit, even a bastard, therefore unelectable. Shits and bastards get elected all the time, since year dot.
In voters minds, the brass neck, the oomph to get things done, the charisma, just matters more.
Perhaps we pay too much attention to pebble counting and not enough attention to psychology?
I have failed you PB.
I’m going to pick up my mysterium coniunctionis for answers. I may be gone some time.
Greetings Earthlings. Scorchio lunch done and home to melt. In nutjob news Germany is considering making masks compulsory indoors every year from October till Easter. Its for your 'health' you know. Last nights by elections quite interesting.comfy Labour hold in Warwick, comfy Tory hold in Rother with strong LD showing too, labour hold in Sunderland but net swing to Tory and an indy and the Tories picked up a Wyre forest area seat KHHC abandoned. Tory vote holding up ok in the red wall wards contested. Small data points though. Survation have a poll including PR question/VI later Germany. Lol @ the mask addicts
Please tell me that’s a joke about Germany
Nope read Die Welt
I honestly find it hard to get my head around. Mental
Even the East Asians - always pro-mask - have never made them ”compulsory indoors over winter” - every winter. Nowhere near it
The pandemic has sent quite a few people crazy. It is arguable it has sent smarter people crazier than stupid people, cf Brexit
Healthy people dont need masks. Sick people shouldn't be out. Masks are for those that wish to utliise their uselessness.
When I did my little Trafford Centre trip yesterday, I wore a mask on the Tube, the Pendolino, and the Metrolink Tram in both directions, only taking it off to eat and drink (a safe distance outside Euston and Piccadilly stations).
@rcs1000 not really seeing that from your link. Enforced returns of asylum seekers in 2020 were 1,546 which was about 50% down on the previous year but which also continued a downward trend since 2010.
I would also be suspicious that the number of processed asylum applications was adversely affected by Covid too.
Do the Lobby wankers really think that these things are organised in a matter of hours?
Don't see why not. He's got Zelensky by the balls so he can't say Not now Boris I am busy. As far as this end is concerned he's the PM and can do what he likes. What is the problem?
Greetings Earthlings. Scorchio lunch done and home to melt. In nutjob news Germany is considering making masks compulsory indoors every year from October till Easter. Its for your 'health' you know. Last nights by elections quite interesting.comfy Labour hold in Warwick, comfy Tory hold in Rother with strong LD showing too, labour hold in Sunderland but net swing to Tory and an indy and the Tories picked up a Wyre forest area seat KHHC abandoned. Tory vote holding up ok in the red wall wards contested. Small data points though. Survation have a poll including PR question/VI later Germany. Lol @ the mask addicts
Please tell me that’s a joke about Germany
Re Germany: I'm sure someone has suggested it, but that's a long way away from "Germany is considering" it.
It seems highly improbable this trip wasn't arranged some time ago. However. This doesn't explain why the PM was still being trailed as being in Doncaster as late as mid-day? It suggests he doesn't give a monkeys about the north, nor about Party management.
Do the Lobby wankers really think that these things are organised in a matter of hours?
So he was just outright lying about Doncaster then you're saying?
Getting people into Kiev requires that no-one knows it’s happening, which means continuing to discuss events that may end up cancelled.
I can appreciate your point, but my sense is that his office have gone further and have been more direct in their misdirection than other PMs offices would have done in the same circumstances, and perhaps that is because they are in the business anyway of lying routinely, repeatedly and about everything anyway
And, on this occasion, it has mightily upset people on his own side, not because he went to Kyiv, but because his office tipped over yet again into bare faced lying.
And if his office is still in this business, and why wouldn't they, the sense of those who remain is that they got away with Partygate, it will repeat on other things and the likes of Partygate will repeat and nauseum.
@rcs1000 not really seeing that from your link. Enforced returns of asylum seekers in 2020 were 1,546 which was about 50% down on the previous year but which also continued a downward trend since 2010.
I would also be suspicious that the number of processed asylum applications was adversely affected by Covid too.
I deleted it, because I was wrong.
My number was for all deportations, of which failed asylum seekers was only 1,546.
I was going to rewrite it, but the interesting factoid in there is that - until 2016 - we were pretty good at removing failed asylum seekers. And then, for some reason, we got really bad.
With an attitude like that the tories are in for a real kicking in T&H, despite @MoonRabbit 's wobbles.
The only vague chance the tories would have had there would be a candidate who totally disowned the wicked clown in No.10.
It's going to be a massive LibDem win: well in excess of 10% ahead.
How many by-election losers are ever heard of again?
There was Blair in 1982, but apart from that?
I guess what I'm wondering is whether being a Conservative by-election candidate right now is a one-way ticket to Obscurityville, and that's enough to put off the capable and ambitious.
Phil Hammond lost the 1994 Newham North East by-election. He was Chancellor of the Exchequer a few years back.
Kwasi Kwarteng was the candidate in the Brent East campaign where Sarah Teather won.
Boris Johnson. Clwyd South. 1997.
Churchill Oldham 1899 Rees Mogg Central Fife 1997 Wrekin 2001
With an attitude like that the tories are in for a real kicking in T&H, despite @MoonRabbit 's wobbles.
The only vague chance the tories would have had there would be a candidate who totally disowned the wicked clown in No.10.
It's going to be a massive LibDem win: well in excess of 10% ahead.
How many by-election losers are ever heard of again?
There was Blair in 1982, but apart from that?
I guess what I'm wondering is whether being a Conservative by-election candidate right now is a one-way ticket to Obscurityville, and that's enough to put off the capable and ambitious.
Zac Goldsmith in 2016.
Nigel Evans in 1991.
Ahem, when dinosaurs ruled the earth mind.
'In 1954, Thatcher was defeated when she sought selection to be the Conservative Party candidate for the Orpington by-election of January 1955.'
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
That's pretty much when politics realised there was more than one issue after 15 months.
Greetings Earthlings. Scorchio lunch done and home to melt. In nutjob news Germany is considering making masks compulsory indoors every year from October till Easter. Its for your 'health' you know. Last nights by elections quite interesting.comfy Labour hold in Warwick, comfy Tory hold in Rother with strong LD showing too, labour hold in Sunderland but net swing to Tory and an indy and the Tories picked up a Wyre forest area seat KHHC abandoned. Tory vote holding up ok in the red wall wards contested. Small data points though. Survation have a poll including PR question/VI later Germany. Lol @ the mask addicts
Please tell me that’s a joke about Germany
Nope read Die Welt
I honestly find it hard to get my head around. Mental
Even the East Asians - always pro-mask - have never made them ”compulsory indoors over winter” - every winter. Nowhere near it
The pandemic has sent quite a few people crazy. It is arguable it has sent smarter people crazier than stupid people, cf Brexit
Healthy people dont need masks. Sick people shouldn't be out. Masks are for those that wish to utliise their uselessness.
When I did my little Trafford Centre trip yesterday, I wore a mask on the Tube, the Pendolino, and the Metrolink Tram in both directions, only taking it off to eat and drink (a safe distance outside Euston and Piccadilly stations).
Stubborn bastard, ain't I?
Entirely up to you. Its being ordered to wear one i object to without any historic or current compelling evidence of worthwhile efficacy and with inane exceptions.
With an attitude like that the tories are in for a real kicking in T&H, despite @MoonRabbit 's wobbles.
The only vague chance the tories would have had there would be a candidate who totally disowned the wicked clown in No.10.
It's going to be a massive LibDem win: well in excess of 10% ahead.
How many by-election losers are ever heard of again?
There was Blair in 1982, but apart from that?
I guess what I'm wondering is whether being a Conservative by-election candidate right now is a one-way ticket to Obscurityville, and that's enough to put off the capable and ambitious.
Phil Hammond lost the 1994 Newham North East by-election. He was Chancellor of the Exchequer a few years back.
Kwasi Kwarteng was the candidate in the Brent East campaign where Sarah Teather won.
Boris Johnson. Clwyd South. 1997.
Churchill Oldham 1899 Rees Mogg Central Fife 1997 Wrekin 2001
Kelly Tolhurst lost Rochester & Strood against defector Mark Reckless in 2014, but won the seat in 2015.
Greetings Earthlings. Scorchio lunch done and home to melt. In nutjob news Germany is considering making masks compulsory indoors every year from October till Easter. Its for your 'health' you know. Last nights by elections quite interesting.comfy Labour hold in Warwick, comfy Tory hold in Rother with strong LD showing too, labour hold in Sunderland but net swing to Tory and an indy and the Tories picked up a Wyre forest area seat KHHC abandoned. Tory vote holding up ok in the red wall wards contested. Small data points though. Survation have a poll including PR question/VI later Germany. Lol @ the mask addicts
Please tell me that’s a joke about Germany
Nope read Die Welt
I honestly find it hard to get my head around. Mental
Even the East Asians - always pro-mask - have never made them ”compulsory indoors over winter” - every winter. Nowhere near it
The pandemic has sent quite a few people crazy. It is arguable it has sent smarter people crazier than stupid people, cf Brexit
Healthy people dont need masks. Sick people shouldn't be out. Masks are for those that wish to utliise their uselessness.
When I did my little Trafford Centre trip yesterday, I wore a mask on the Tube, the Pendolino, and the Metrolink Tram in both directions, only taking it off to eat and drink (a safe distance outside Euston and Piccadilly stations).
Stubborn bastard, ain't I?
I don't mind people wearing or not wearing masks these days. But it *really* grinds when I see someone still wearing the flipping thing under their nose.
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
Last nights local by elections offer tentative support for 'tories stabilising' too albeit in miniature, but next week i think we will see a proper voter protest. That in itself may shift the polling a bit short term.
If he holds Horney Town, albeit narrowly, it will just boost his comeback momentum.
Controversial opinion....Eoin Morgan should be dropped from England ODI / T20 teams.
He certainly needs to find some form. But would you play him ahead of Bairstow or Stokes? Not a chance. The firepower of the England short version squad is truly incredible at the moment and the man who started a lot of the innovation and aggression in this country looks a bit short of the pace.
It seems highly improbable this trip wasn't arranged some time ago. However. This doesn't explain why the PM was still being trailed as being in Doncaster as late as mid-day? It suggests he doesn't give a monkeys about the north, nor about Party management.
Its a classic case of a CEO falling out with his staff and seeking refuge in external contacts . If he thinks people give a chit about Ukraine when they are struggling with inflation he is more out of touch and too wrapped up in his Churchill fetish .
Controversial opinion....Eoin Morgan should be dropped from England ODI / T20 teams.
He certainly needs to find some form. But would you play him ahead of Bairstow or Stokes? Not a chance. The firepower of the England short version squad is truly incredible at the moment and the man who started a lot of the innovation and aggression in this country looks a bit short of the pace.
Problem is it isn't even Bairstow or Stokes to come in, England have insane firepower. Livingstone is a must as showed today he can get you 50 in a couple of overs.
Roy might be in danger too if the likes of Salt keep doing it.
Controversial opinion....Eoin Morgan should be dropped from England ODI / T20 teams.
Drop Jason Roy first - although watching his colleagues get a world record score after he was out for a single, might do something for him. Morgan getting a duck let in Livingstone for his sensational innings.
Controversial opinion....Eoin Morgan should be dropped from England ODI / T20 teams.
Drop Jason Roy first - although watching his colleagues get a world record score after he was out for a single, might do something for him. Morgan getting a duck let in Livingstone for his sensational innings.
I am usually not the biggest fan of England Cricket teams but even I think discussing which batsmen to drop after they have scored 498 in 50 overs is a bit of a discussion that need not be the most pressing to have!
The value bet is Tory for sure, as that graph is at odds with how we feel about it in our minds?
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
"since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling"
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
The curious thing about that graph is that you can see the scandals- starting with Wallpapergate. You get blue stalactites dripping off the main trendline that last a few days, before the graph reverts to whatever was happening before. I wonder what the psychology of those voters (representing a couple of million people) is?
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
That's pretty much when politics realised there was more than one issue after 15 months.
Good point, and where @isam's Covid tracking model fell down. Low Covid was good for government ratings, but "zero" Covid didn't mean stable high support for the government.
Controversial opinion....Eoin Morgan should be dropped from England ODI / T20 teams.
Drop Jason Roy first - although watching his colleagues get a world record score after he was out for a single, might do something for him. Morgan getting a duck let in Livingstone for his sensational innings.
I am usually not the biggest fan of England Cricket teams but even I think discussing which batsmen to drop after they have scored 498 in 50 overs is a bit of a discussion that need not be the most pressing to have!
The whole reason for these games is to decide this.
Twitter Stephen Pollard@stephenpollard·16m I know it's deflection. I know he should have resigned. But it matters hugely to the Ukrainians that Johnson is there today, and in the circumstances today that's what matters.
It seems highly improbable this trip wasn't arranged some time ago. However. This doesn't explain why the PM was still being trailed as being in Doncaster as late as mid-day? It suggests he doesn't give a monkeys about the north, nor about Party management.
Its a classic case of a CEO falling out with his staff and seeking refuge in external contacts . If he thinks people give a chit about Ukraine when they are struggling with inflation he is more out of touch and too wrapped up in his Churchill fetish .
There's a risk that it actually reduces public support for massive funding of Ukraine if it starts to be seen as a Johnson prestige project instead of a fight for survival.
I think almost everyone now agrees that our Prime Minister is a shit, but his being a shit isn't the explanation for everything that ever happens.
No, but him being a shit explains a lot of what happens around him. A LOT of what happens around him...
Maybe you are reading too much into him being a shit, even a bastard, therefore unelectable. Shits and bastards get elected all the time, since year dot.
In voters minds, the brass neck, the oomph to get things done, the charisma, just matters more.
Perhaps we pay too much attention to pebble counting and not enough attention to psychology?
On this topic, Marina Hyde on form in today's Graun, discussing the shortcomings of Starmer:
Anyway, as my diagnostic fave, Dr Gregory House, knew: people lie. Even people who really need to be helped. They tell you they can’t think of a single reason why they could be suffering flailing and spasms. They tell you they want a dull technocrat after the exhausting political psychodrama of the past few years. But they don’t tell you they’ve been taking birth control pills at the same time as undergoing fertility treatment. And they don’t tell you that they’d back the next obviously incompetent degenerate that British politics unearthed for a leadership role if they looked like they’d be fun to have a pint of windscreen wiper fluid with.
If Labour had a clear vision, of course, there wouldn’t be quite so much focus on the leader. But Labour doesn’t have a clear vision. Voters seem to be being asked to surmise one, with only Starmer’s personality to go on. That’s not working out brilliantly.
Whilst I personally inhabit the "God, please make it stop!" camp, and would quite happily embrace a bit of respite from "fun" for a few years, I fear that she may be on to something.
Labour's opinion poll lead, against an obviously bad Government, in mid-term and confronting a cost-of-living crisis unparalleled in decades, is consistent but modest. Insipid. Unexciting. The party certainly isn't galloping away into the distance to cheers of public acclaim.
If they go into the next election with a nothing leader and no clear idea of where they are going then they're vulnerable to yet another defeat. Despite everything that has happened since the last election, the possibility of Boris Johnson leading the Tories into the next one and winning it shouldn't be discounted.
Do the Lobby wankers really think that these things are organised in a matter of hours?
So he was just outright lying about Doncaster then you're saying?
Getting people into Kiev requires that no-one knows it’s happening, which means continuing to discuss events that may end up cancelled.
I can appreciate your point, but my sense is that his office have gone further and have been more direct in their misdirection than other PMs offices would have done in the same circumstances, and perhaps that is because they are in the business anyway of lying routinely, repeatedly and about everything anyway
And, on this occasion, it has mightily upset people on his own side, not because he went to Kyiv, but because his office tipped over yet again into bare faced lying.
And if his office is still in this business, and why wouldn't they, the sense of those who remain is that they got away with Partygate, it will repeat on other things and the likes of Partygate will repeat and nauseum.
This whole hoohar is painted Boris coloured.
Apparently Mr J bumped Mr Gove aside to do the keynote talk to the Red Wallers and Mr Gove ended up doing the talk remotely today. Not sure of the timings. But it does not help the RW feel the lurve.
Twitter Stephen Pollard@stephenpollard·16m I know it's deflection. I know he should have resigned. But it matters hugely to the Ukrainians that Johnson is there today, and in the circumstances today that's what matters.
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
The Tories have given up on the North, I think they've concluded those seats have gone and they now have to defend the South
On what basis have you concluded that? I mean without evidence you could just as easily say they are happy the north is secure. Its hopecasting. Parties dont 'give up' on half of the country. Especially not the half the local results are comparatively better in. Whatever the overall result next time im confident the trend of better relative performance in former solid labour midland and northern seats and complete dominance in the East will continue. Theyll do horribly in the SE, S, SW in comparison. The results in local by elections, this years main locals all support that.
Controversial opinion....Eoin Morgan should be dropped from England ODI / T20 teams.
Drop Jason Roy first - although watching his colleagues get a world record score after he was out for a single, might do something for him. Morgan getting a duck let in Livingstone for his sensational innings.
I am usually not the biggest fan of England Cricket teams but even I think discussing which batsmen to drop after they have scored 498 in 50 overs is a bit of a discussion that need not be the most pressing to have!
The two batsmen that got one run between them, in the context of that record score?
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
Last nights local by elections offer tentative support for 'tories stabilising' too albeit in miniature, but next week i think we will see a proper voter protest. That in itself may shift the polling a bit short term.
If he holds Horney Town, albeit narrowly, it will just boost his comeback momentum.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
It'll end up 5% i reckon. Unless the BoE grows a set and puts 2% plus on rates sharpish. Anyone who hasnt fixed their mortgage rate should be doing so in very short order.
The Tory’s are getting stronger and stronger all the time since the vonc. And the greens are withering in the heat.
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️
Last nights local by elections offer tentative support for 'tories stabilising' too albeit in miniature, but next week i think we will see a proper voter protest. That in itself may shift the polling a bit short term.
If he holds Horney Town, albeit narrowly, it will just boost his comeback momentum.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
It'll end up 5% i reckon. Unless the BoE grows a set and puts 2% plus on rates sharpish. Anyone who hasnt fixed their mortgage rate should be doing so in very short order.
I have a feeling a bit like government approach to covid they will keep waiting that extra bit of time hoping something turns up only to result in more pain later.
Public sector pay cap of 2% is going to be the story of the Summer.
Holding that line is going to be popcorn-tastic.
Even if, somehow, the government can bludgeon their way through strikes, recruitment and retention are going to be grim. Beyond a certain point, you simply can't keep staff from going and working in some other field. Or pootling off into early semi-retirement.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.
Comments
Pattern very set at the moment.
Still LOLing at ukip at 3% in the survation PR. AS IF!!
Labour: +1
Starmer: -4
Conservatives: -21
Johnson: -28
On best PM, Starmer retains a lead:
Starmer: 39%
Johnson: 34%
Aren't you worried she's running Gain of Function experiments with the aliens, and before you know there'll be billions of the bastards?
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1537813235038134274
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1537753843420876801
It’s not even subtle. Von der Leyen etc go to Kiev, Boris goes the next day. Macron etc go, Boris mucks people around, has a Geidt problem and goes the next day.
https://twitter.com/fifisyms/status/1537817018937794563
Katy Balls@katyballs·9m
Sense among some Tory MPs that Boris Johnson pulling out of the Northern Research Group conference to go to Kyiv could backfire with the party
It was viewed as a chance to show he was taking MPs' domestic worries seriously
And did anyone ever work out a good theory of why June 2021 was peak Boris?
This strikes one as implausible. The Ukrainian Government appears to be quite appreciative of Boris Johnson, but they do have one or two other things on their plate right now.
Unless you are HYUFD, in that case it is a whopping 1% swing to Cons.
Goodness me she is such a Karen
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1537770875759611906
Because the government and civil servants are perfect; they aren't going to get every decision right. Occasionally, there will be evidence that was missed, and there needs to be an appeals process.
Well there are broad churches and broad churches.
The party that, faced with a pandemic, adopted the Chinese Communist Party solution is sure to be very, very broad indeed.
They're all pretty poor candidates in my view - but the Tory has to be most stereotypical uncaring, condescending Karen I've ever seen. If this is the future of the party I am sad.
Set against that, the rather obvious point that Sandpit has just made: announcing your precise schedule for travelling to Kyiv in advance may not be a good idea, therefore pretend plans may be made which are subsequently cancelled. Or, genuine plans are made and then have to be ditched when a convenient time to visit Zelenskyy is found.
I think almost everyone now agrees that our Prime Minister is a shit, but his being a shit isn't the explanation for everything that ever happens.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/06/01/as-uk-covid-deaths-drop-to-zero-the-front-page-of-tomorrows-daily-mail/
Which brings us onto Romfords question, what is the psychology of the voters?
Maybe it just boils down in voters minds to either him or him - and only one of them has charisma, the necessary brass neck for politics, and a bit of oomph needed to get things done?
What is the number one thing human beings are sub consciously looking for in a mate? Scars. Because we want to be with someone who can keep us safe. I met my other half when she was teaching kick boxing and self defence classes.
Maybe it’s a fault with our own psychology, we see what we want to, hence missing something? Take one example. Say we had a hundred people there when Boris was booed last week, normally 40 out of hundred won’t boo, they just won’t clap as politely as others, we presumed more were booing than was booing, we presumed it was significant. In reality Boris was two or so people more popular over the last two weeks despite the boo.
Or maybe the next election simply turned the moment recently, when Boris had his hair transplant.
I put my hand up and admit I was wrong. I predicted June narrative, back drop of cost of living crisis, ideal for a down tick, the share is uptick. Boris personal ratings up tick.
I can’t explain it. It’s a mad hatters tea party. 🤦♀️
Do you support deporting migrants to Rwanda? @NickFerrariLBC, @RachelSJohnson and @DavidLammy clash over the policy in LBC’s new debate show The Agenda. 📺 Watch in full ⬇️ l-bc.co/3MYURE3
One of the most pathetic debates I've ever seen
I suspect that correlation has now weakened if not disappeared, but it was a thing
Keir Starmer is more popular than Johnson
Labour is more popular than the Tories
Labour is more trusted on immigration than the Tories
Labour is more trusted on the economy than the Tories - or is slightly behind or tied
This is what was happening in a mirror image, prior to GE19. I argued consistently against these sorts of metrics then and they proved to be right. So what has changed.
In voters minds, the brass neck, the oomph to get things done, the charisma, just matters more.
Perhaps we pay too much attention to pebble counting and not enough attention to psychology?
I have failed you PB.
I’m going to pick up my mysterium coniunctionis for answers. I may be gone some time.
Stubborn bastard, ain't I?
I would also be suspicious that the number of processed asylum applications was adversely affected by Covid too.
Someone in Germany is considering suggesting it?
Some journalist in Germany needs a story quickly?
One of those three probably.
However.
This doesn't explain why the PM was still being trailed as being in Doncaster as late as mid-day?
It suggests he doesn't give a monkeys about the north, nor about Party management.
And, on this occasion, it has mightily upset people on his own side, not because he went to Kyiv, but because his office tipped over yet again into bare faced lying.
And if his office is still in this business, and why wouldn't they, the sense of those who remain is that they got away with Partygate, it will repeat on other things and the likes of Partygate will repeat and nauseum.
This whole hoohar is painted Boris coloured.
My number was for all deportations, of which failed asylum seekers was only 1,546.
I was going to rewrite it, but the interesting factoid in there is that - until 2016 - we were pretty good at removing failed asylum seekers. And then, for some reason, we got really bad.
Rees Mogg Central Fife 1997 Wrekin 2001
If he'd never resigned, he'd probably have kept the seat the whole time.
'In 1954, Thatcher was defeated when she sought selection to be the Conservative Party candidate for the Orpington by-election of January 1955.'
Not sure he has helped his popularity with the 148
Roy might be in danger too if the likes of Salt keep doing it.
SNP 42%
SCon 22%
SLab 15%
SLD 11%
Ref 3%
Grn 2%
Alba 1%
oth 4%
Survation, 10 June 2022
Raining and blooming cold.
Stephen Pollard@stephenpollard·16m
I know it's deflection. I know he should have resigned.
But it matters hugely to the Ukrainians that Johnson is there today, and in the circumstances today that's what matters.
Anyway, as my diagnostic fave, Dr Gregory House, knew: people lie. Even people who really need to be helped. They tell you they can’t think of a single reason why they could be suffering flailing and spasms. They tell you they want a dull technocrat after the exhausting political psychodrama of the past few years. But they don’t tell you they’ve been taking birth control pills at the same time as undergoing fertility treatment. And they don’t tell you that they’d back the next obviously incompetent degenerate that British politics unearthed for a leadership role if they looked like they’d be fun to have a pint of windscreen wiper fluid with.
If Labour had a clear vision, of course, there wouldn’t be quite so much focus on the leader. But Labour doesn’t have a clear vision. Voters seem to be being asked to surmise one, with only Starmer’s personality to go on. That’s not working out brilliantly.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/17/keir-starmer-boris-johnson-lie-personality-politics
Whilst I personally inhabit the "God, please make it stop!" camp, and would quite happily embrace a bit of respite from "fun" for a few years, I fear that she may be on to something.
Labour's opinion poll lead, against an obviously bad Government, in mid-term and confronting a cost-of-living crisis unparalleled in decades, is consistent but modest. Insipid. Unexciting. The party certainly isn't galloping away into the distance to cheers of public acclaim.
If they go into the next election with a nothing leader and no clear idea of where they are going then they're vulnerable to yet another defeat. Despite everything that has happened since the last election, the possibility of Boris Johnson leading the Tories into the next one and winning it shouldn't be discounted.
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
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11m
Unison national delegate conference backs proportional representation (motion 102 passed) https://unison.org.uk/content/uploads/2022/05/2022-National-Delegate-Conference-Final-Agenda.pdf
I mean without evidence you could just as easily say they are happy the north is secure.
Its hopecasting. Parties dont 'give up' on half of the country. Especially not the half the local results are comparatively better in.
Whatever the overall result next time im confident the trend of better relative performance in former solid labour midland and northern seats and complete dominance in the East will continue. Theyll do horribly in the SE, S, SW in comparison.
The results in local by elections, this years main locals all support that.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1537780992378822657
Anyone who hasnt fixed their mortgage rate should be doing so in very short order.
Schools are struggling to put bodies in front of classes now, and the numbers entering training are horrible.