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The LDs edging back up in the Devon by-election betting – politicalbetting.com
The LDs edging back up in the Devon by-election betting – politicalbetting.com
We are now in the final phase of the Tiverton & Honiton by-election which makes place next Thursday. This was caused by the resignation of the incumbent MP after he had been observed viewing porn on his phone in the Commons Chamber.
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Lab
Con
Akef Akbar
Yorkshire Party
Green
Reform
Lib Dem
according to the betting odds.
That'll be why Johnson nipped off
Another reason I am not sure Lib Dems have this, which I want to run passed Woolie if he is seeing same thing as me in national polling, since the vonc. Boris and his government ratings seem to be rallying, firming up and ticking upwards in polling. Crazy if true, as it means MoonRabbits much vaunted June Gloom in polling for Tories isn’t going to happen - I was thinking like 2012, two naff spring budgets, voters not happy about governments financial management, Tories summer slump in polls and gap grows. But it’s not happening, Boris and the Tory ratings getting stronger if anything. And that is another reason not to be so sure of Libdems winning Horny Town. (Though a Saxon ton is basically a farmstead to be literal about it).
There’s something about the vonc, 200+ publically backing everything Boris has done and said, that may actually have drawn a line under Partygate and the voters have moved on, maybe? Geets resignation has barely rippled coffee in the cup this side of vonc. it took the wind from the rebellion. Or something about the governments management of cost of living crisis the voters like that is now firming and up ticking Boris and government rating up all the time now - or maybe all those three things at once.
I’ll celebrate the Libdem win if it happens, but I am not at all sure today.
On the zodiac in particular, this was part of the standard cosmology of the time, I think. Dante's _Divine Comedy_ (somewhat earlier but you get the idea) has lots of it, for example (my annotated copy says it's to make him sound scientifically up-to-date and add realism to his portrayal of Heaven and Hell).
But Tom Tugendhat (Tory leadership contender) is on stage at the NRG heaping praise on the Red Wall
He says the Tory Party is not “a church with one true faith and one leader like a Pope” but a broad church
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1537798577447219200
So that, if Cancer one such crystal had,
Winter would have a month of one sole day.
The Cathedral has a meridian, which may be considered as an earlier type of heliometer (solar "observatory"), one of a number constructed in Italian churches, mainly in the 17th and 18th centuries. This one was built in 1801 by the famous astronomer Giuseppe Piazzi, the director of the Observatory of Palermo who discovered the first minor planet or asteroid, Ceres. The device itself is quite simple: a tiny hole in one of the minor domes acts as pinhole camera, projecting an image of the sun onto the floor ). There is a bronze line, la meridiana on the floor, running precisely N/S. At solar noon (circa 12:00 in winter, 13:00 in summer), the sun image passes through this line. At different times of the year the passage occurs at different point of the line. The ends of the line mark the positions at the summer and winter solstices; signs of the zodiac show various dates throughout the year.
The purpose of the instrument was to standardise the measurement of time and the calendar. The convention in Sicily had been that the (24-hour) day was measured from the moment of sun-rise, which of course meant that no two locations had the same time and, more importantly, did not have the same time as in St. Peter's Basilica in Rome. It was also important to know when the Vernal equinox occurred, to provide the correct date for Easter. On the belltowers there were six medieval bells.
The instrument could be used for research on the apparent movements of the Sun, including its relative distance from the Earth, measured through the size of the floor projected solar disk, and even to compare the results with Ptolemaic and Copernician predictions.[2]
Papists always big on astronomy, there's a Vatican Observatory
He has written him a letter:
"...To suggest that lawyers who act in immigration in Judicial Reviews are "abetting the work of criminal gangs" is wrong in law. It is fatuous. It is vacuous. And, most worringly, it is dangerous...Most reasonable people understand that resorting to law does not undermine confidence in the legal system; rather it shows a healthy legal system in action."
He's right, of course. A government that does not respect the rule of law itself is dangerous and undermines the constitutional foundations of our country.
Speaking at the NRG conference, he says "I think we should offer ourselves forward for service" and that it will be "up to colleagues and country to choose".
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1537800382503608321
If this was true though, they would switch to a fish symbol for Jesus - precession of the equinoxes anti clockwise through thirteen signs, 26,000 year cycle.
https://www.encyclopedia.com/science-and-technology/astronomy-and-space-exploration/astronomy-general/precession-equinoxes
With an attitude like that the tories are in for a real kicking in T&H, despite @MoonRabbit 's wobbles.
The only vague chance the tories would have had there would be a candidate who totally disowned the wicked clown in No.10.
It's going to be a massive LibDem win: well in excess of 10% ahead.
Papists we’re also very good at throwing astronomers into dungeons or burning them at the stake.
https://phys.org/news/2022-06-giant-radio-telescope-china-aliens.html
...With such a large collecting area, FAST can pick up incredibly faint signals. It is about 20 times more sensitive than Australia's Murriyang telescope at the Parkes Radio Observatory. FAST could easily detect a transmitter on a nearby exoplanet with a similar output power to radar systems we have here on Earth.
The trouble with being so sensitive is that you can uncover radio interference that would otherwise be too faint to detect. We SETI researchers have had this problem before.
Last year, using Murriyang, we detected an extremely interesting signal we called BLC1.
However, it turned out to be very strange interference (not aliens). To uncover its true nature, we had to develop a new verification framework.
With BLC1, it took about a year from when it was initially reported to when peer-reviewed analysis was published. Similarly, we may need to wait a while for the FAST signal to be analyzed in depth.
Professor Zhang Tongjie, chief scientist for the China Extraterrestrial Civilization Research Group, acknowledged this in the Science & Technology Daily report: "The possibility that the suspicious signal is some kind of radio interference is also very high, and it needs to be further confirmed and ruled out. This may be a long process."...
Swinson was .... prime ministerial in comparison.
MoonRabbit wobbles. I’m still quite pert and taught actually, in my psephology. 😆
I’m making two points actually. The Tory share nationally does appear to be rallying and ticking upward since the vonc. Secondly, non two by elections can be exactly the same, in landscape and narrative. Because Amersham remainers, Shropshire North better comparison with horny town - the narrative in December was partygate on news every second of everyday till the Christmas break. And the mindset of Tories in Devon just seem to have enough “Tory for me despite anything ever” about them, to give us doubt all the incredible swing needed happens.
Should be cLose enough either way to justify the discussion we are having about it though. Thank you. 🙂
And Crosby is right, he will.
There was Blair in 1982, but apart from that?
I guess what I'm wondering is whether being a Conservative by-election candidate right now is a one-way ticket to Obscurityville, and that's enough to put off the capable and ambitious.
There's a metaphor somewhere.
Third trip this year to Kyiv for PM - second since the war started. https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1537806957683286020/photo/1
Safer than visiting marginals.
eventually they discovered it was a microwave oven within the facility.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/may/05/microwave-oven-caused-mystery-signal-plaguing-radio-telescope-for-17-years
This is a new telescope. They are still learning about it. They allow tourists relatively near it. It will be interference.
(As an aside, there are black panels beside the M11 northbound from Junction 11 northwards. These are apparently barriers to reduce interference from the road traffic to the radio telescopes a couple of miles west at Lord's Bridge).
Bad 41%
Neither 37%
Good 21%
https://www.nature.com/articles/044127a0.pdf
Should feed through to commercial products quite soon.
30-year perovskite solar cells and the new approach to testing them for the long haul
https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-year-perovskite-solar-cells-approach.html
Here's HW Bush in Iraq
https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Photos/igphoto/2002068344/
Dammit! At noon tomorrow I will be I Luton Airport, god willing and if we are spared, so can't go back to look.
My own little story: when we were working in radio, we found units would occasionally glitch out; after many hours, there would be a small errant signal in the output. We instrumented units to see what was going on, but could find nothing. We got everyone to turn off their mobile phones, and all electricals off bar the test kit. It still happened. When we got the same behaviour in a screened room, we realised it was not a problem with input radio interference.
(It turned out to be a software issue; a semaphore between processor cores that was not being released immediately. A bit of a bugger to find, but when we found it, we did a search and found a couple of other similar problems that had not been noticed.)
Radio is weird. It is the domain of wizards and witches.
@BorisJohnson is in #Kyiv https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1537811040142073856/photo/1
Says they were being told Johnson “was on the train to Doncaster” this morning
“This is the first test of outreach to his colleagues and he’s failed it”, they said
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1537812897866436608
Pres Z looks genuinely warm and happy to see Boris, compared to how bewildered he looked yesterday with the unsupportive domehead and viper talking French.
Nigel Evans in 1991.
Currently, more than 50% of all appeals against negative immigration appeals are successful, that is the immigration (or at least their continued presence here) was not "illegal" after all.
So the lawyers who win these cases are not "doomed to failure".
I am not sure I agree with you about Australia but it doesn't in any event seem particularly relevant to the PM's comments.
The logic of your position is that we should just get on with it and "illegally" extradict people who have a right to stay here by denying them the protection of the law.
LAB 41% (-1)
CON 34% (+1)
LD 10% (+1)
SNP 4% (-)
GRN 3% (-1)
OTH 7% (-1)
2053 UK adults aged 18+ online, 10th June '22. Changes w/ April 29 ‘22
Whomp whomp BJO what will you do
They complained that the outputs did not match. One of the players was several dB lower than the other.
We despatched an engineer who showed them how to work the remote volume controls...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61842137
LAB 41% (-1)
CON 34% (+1)
LD 10% (+1)
SNP 4% (-)
GRN 3% (-1)
OTH 7% (-1)
2053 UK adults aged 18+ online, 10th June '22. Changes w/ April 29 ‘22 https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1537814001794547713/photo/1
And that represents about 18% of the population.
Boring is not the issue, it is policies
Last nights by elections quite interesting.comfy Labour hold in Warwick, comfy Tory hold in Rother with strong LD showing too, labour hold in Sunderland but net swing to Tory and an indy and the Tories picked up a Wyre forest area seat KHHC abandoned.
Tory vote holding up ok in the red wall wards contested.
Small data points though.
Survation have a poll including PR question/VI later
Germany. Lol @ the mask addicts
Fix the UK!
LAB: 42% (+3)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-3)
GRN: 4% (-2)
via @RedfieldWilton, 15 Jun
Chgs. w/ 12 Jun
Oh dear BJO wrong again!
Couldn't stand the heat so he has bummed off to Kyiv. Wish he would stay there.
PR experiment from Survation, Labour win either way
Jokes do not seem to come naturally to Sir Kier; he ought to be able to pay someone to come up with some good pithy questions, and to game some laconic and witty comebacks.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/jun/17/sadio-mane-leaving-liverpool-after-new-bayern-munich-offer-accepted
http://www.royalobservatorygreenwich.org/articles.php?article=911
You're not a tory activist in disguise ... are you?
I don't see the evidence it is though. Not in time for 2050. Not even close. Even though billions are being invested into it and energy prices are now high enough for the innovators to get their skates on. It just isn't happening.
And that's why the hard target is a massive issue. Its the only issue.
I mean, there's the tiniest of bounces. And the Conservative vote share is higher than around Christmas-time, but I wouldn't describe it as ticking up yet.
The only significant move I can divine is that - in the last six months - the LibDems have gone from 7-8%, duking it out with the Greens for third, to 12-13%.
One Tory MP at the Northern Research Group conference - where Boris Johnson failed to turn up - utterly furious
Says they were being told Johnson “was on the train to Doncaster” this morning
“This is the first test of outreach to his colleagues and he’s failed it”, they said
I'd put Blair, Phil Spreadsheet and Ruthie D in a slightly different sub category- they were flying the flag in a hopeless seat, rather than losing somewhere that ought to be winnable.
Can't help but wonder what Zac's appeal is- he's got a very mixed (being charitable) electoral record.
The standard immigration case will be decided by the Home Office. They can take absurdly long periods of time. Over a year is not at all unusual. In a number of cases that decision will be appealed to a First Tier Tribunal. In a very small number of cases there will be an appeal to an Upper Tribunal. Judicial review is a very small part of the system, usually when something has gone wrong in the process or when someone was not told about something for reasons that are not their fault.
The major problem is our failure to act on the decisions made. And it always has been.
Even the East Asians - always pro-mask - have never made them ”compulsory indoors over winter” - every winter. Nowhere near it
The pandemic has sent quite a few people crazy. It is arguable it has sent smarter people crazier than stupid people, cf Brexit
We have had the two week plus since the vonc, and there is more than enough evidence to say MoonRabbit called it very wrong, rather than the Tory share going backwards in June, it’s going up, bit by bit, as with Johnson’s personal ratings recovering bit by bit.
It’s there in front of us. But I can’t explain why voters feel like this. 🙇♀️