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The rail strike could help the Tories retain Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 13 in General
imageThe rail strike could help the Tories retain Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

One of the factors that could have an impact on the Tory defence of the Tiverton and Honiton by-election on June 23rd is that this is one of the days earmarked for the national rail strikes at the end of June.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,381
    I forecast that the LDs will hire coaches.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,044
    Second
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,204
    Firstly plenty of votes will be cast by post: already going back. Secondly coaches could be a problem for election expenses, so most likely self organising ride shares. Thirdly, the anti Johnson wave already looks strong enough to beat the Tories in both by elections. Given the 24,000 odd majority, a defeat in T&H is still going to make Johnson's teeth rattle, and the locals seem quite keen on making it happen.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,191
    I reckon a Conservative hold is perhaps worth a punt (I have a put money on as the odds are attractive), the rail strike I reckon will play a marginal role, it may actually encourage the Lab vote (though I dont imagine many paid up Union members reside in small town Devon).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    rcs1000 said:

    I forecast that the LDs will hire coaches.

    Good morning all.

    And some of the activists will travel the evening before and kip down ready for the action.

    Honiton and Axminster are on the South Western Railway route from Waterloo rather than the GWR & west coast route through Tiverton Parkway.

    It's a slightly strange constituency in that Tiverton and Honiton have little or no geographic or social connection. It's also quite unusual for the south west in that despite being very rural it has two major roads running through it: both the M5 and A303. The south coast road A35 as well. Which means getting there isn't going to be a problem for those who can afford to fill up their cars.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 10

    I reckon a Conservative hold is perhaps worth a punt

    I've seen this mentioned a few times on here.

    I've a relative in the area and I would say that the atmosphere at the moment is febrile, almost mutinous. I may be completely wrong and I apologise if so but I would say that the chances of the Conservatives holding this constituency are less than 5%.

    I really don't think people comprehend, including journalists at the Daily Mail, just how angry and hurt people feel.

    Boris Johnson is toxic.

    As long as he stays the tories will lose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,603
    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,603
    FBI arrests Republican gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley on charges tied to Jan. 6 riot
    https://www.crainsdetroit.com/politics/fbi-arrests-michigan-governor-candidate-ryan-kelley
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,007
    Oh. Fuel Duty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/09/match-european-fuel-tax-cuts-ease-cost-of-living-crisis-tory/

    “As Mr Johnson announced a series of wide-ranging policies in Blackpool on Thursday, senior Tories said he must go further with fuel tax cuts.

    “The Treasury has slashed duty by just five pence per litre, compared with 17 pence in Ireland and Spain and 25 pence in Germany.”
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    Though today's report on the artillery battle is more positive in the Daily Kos.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/9/2103189/-Ukraine-update-Russia-appears-to-be-losing-the-artillery-battle-at-Severodonetsk?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=Sendible&utm_campaign=RSS

    It is quite a left wing US site, but their reporting on the battles in Ukraine has been excellent.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, there's a three week delay* between PB and the Government.

    *Minimum. I've been banging on about axing the green levy on energy for months.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I forecast that the LDs will hire coaches.

    Good morning all.

    And some of the activists will travel the evening before and kip down ready for the action.

    Honiton and Axminster are on the South Western Railway route from Waterloo rather than the GWR & west coast route through Tiverton Parkway.

    It's a slightly strange constituency in that Tiverton and Honiton have little or no geographic or social connection. It's also quite unusual for the south west in that despite being very rural it has two major roads running through it: both the M5 and A303. The south coast road A35 as well. Which means getting there isn't going to be a problem for those who can afford to fill up their cars.

    Even here in the East Mids I have been getting emails to join the Tiverton campaign.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,143
    Sandpit said:

    Oh. Fuel Duty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/09/match-european-fuel-tax-cuts-ease-cost-of-living-crisis-tory/

    “As Mr Johnson announced a series of wide-ranging policies in Blackpool on Thursday, senior Tories said he must go further with fuel tax cuts.

    “The Treasury has slashed duty by just five pence per litre, compared with 17 pence in Ireland and Spain and 25 pence in Germany.”

    A lot of people here were suggesting removing fuel duty yesterday. I was wondering if there is any mechanism that the govt can put in so that if they did remove/slash the duty they could stop the retailers or wholesalers taking the lids and ratcheting up their prices?

    Clearly the 5p reduction was lost within days by the look of things, swallowed by rising prices but I would worry that if they removed duty there would always be “reasons” why that cut would be eaten up and not passed on fully to consumer.

    As the above is a word jumble - is there a figure the govt could put out daily of how much petrol “should be minus the duty” to stop profiteering?

    There’s no point losing the tax revenue and then seeing it go into private companies’ pockets surely.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    Sandpit said:

    Oh. Fuel Duty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/09/match-european-fuel-tax-cuts-ease-cost-of-living-crisis-tory/

    “As Mr Johnson announced a series of wide-ranging policies in Blackpool on Thursday, senior Tories said he must go further with fuel tax cuts.

    “The Treasury has slashed duty by just five pence per litre, compared with 17 pence in Ireland and Spain and 25 pence in Germany.”

    Coincidentally, Nigel Farage said the same thing yesterday, though he also blamed our closed refineries, for which he blames the cost of electricity here, for which he blames green stuff.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPRj2UE_RhA

    Not that senior Tories would be watching Nigel Farage videos!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,603
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    Though today's report on the artillery battle is more positive in the Daily Kos.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/9/2103189/-Ukraine-update-Russia-appears-to-be-losing-the-artillery-battle-at-Severodonetsk?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=Sendible&utm_campaign=RSS

    It is quite a left wing US site, but their reporting on the battles in Ukraine has been excellent.
    That's not inconsistent with what I posted.
    Ukraine has consistently outfought and out thought the Russians; if you look at the detail of artillery losses, it's around 3:1 in their favour.
    But the larger point that they will simply be out of ammunition for the majority of their artillery by the end of this month doesn't go away.

    If they don't get large numbers of western replacements now, rather than by Christmas as Germany seems to be thinking, then the terms of battle will go against them.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 262
    I'd be boisterously sceptical that the train strike is going to make any difference. It all seems very low key here. The only campaigner I have seen so far is Labour, and I've spotted just two posters (both LibDem).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    On-topic: the other way the rail strikes could impact by-elections is by angering commuters. I'm fairly sure tube strikes contributed to Boris's Mayoral victory back in the day.

    This might be less of a factor in these days of working from home. WFH might also mean people can vote during the day rather than just morning and evening, depending how much WFH is actually W. Or (and not just when there is a rail strike) it might effectively reduce the time available by ending early morning voting on the way to work.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 262
    Heathener said:

    I reckon a Conservative hold is perhaps worth a punt

    I've seen this mentioned a few times on here.

    I've a relative in the area and I would say that the atmosphere at the moment is febrile, almost mutinous. I may be completely wrong and I apologise if so but I would say that the chances of the Conservatives holding this constituency are less than 5%.

    I really don't think people comprehend, including journalists at the Daily Mail, just how angry and hurt people feel.

    Boris Johnson is toxic.

    As long as he stays the tories will lose.
    I know a few Tory activists. I don't know a single person who claims to be intending to vote Tory, but of course most people have not said anything.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,009

    Sandpit said:

    Oh. Fuel Duty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/09/match-european-fuel-tax-cuts-ease-cost-of-living-crisis-tory/

    “As Mr Johnson announced a series of wide-ranging policies in Blackpool on Thursday, senior Tories said he must go further with fuel tax cuts.

    “The Treasury has slashed duty by just five pence per litre, compared with 17 pence in Ireland and Spain and 25 pence in Germany.”

    Coincidentally, Nigel Farage said the same thing yesterday, though he also blamed our closed refineries, for which he blames the cost of electricity here, for which he blames green stuff.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPRj2UE_RhA

    Not that senior Tories would be watching Nigel Farage videos!
    The 5p fuel duty cut is estimated to have cost 2.4 billion pounds a year.

    I understand why people want to cut by more. But where is the money coming from?

    You know- the basic question Conservatives are meant to ask?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,777
    For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.

    Putin has come out and said : "During the war with Sweden, Peter the Great didn't conquer anything, he took back what had always belonged to us, even though all of Europe recognised it as Sweden's. It seems now it's our turn to get our lands back [smiling]".

    This is just the latest in a series of comments about his long-term aims. He sees vast areas of eastern Europe as Russian, and wants to get them back. And he is willing to use force to do so. Ukraine is just a small part of that.

    The *only* way to get peace is for Ukraine to beat Russia, and for Russia to know it is beaten. Any sordid little compromise, any attempt to save Russian honour (what honour?) will just lead to more attacks in the future.

    If you want to compromise with Russia by ceding them Ukrainian territory, I might suggest you give your property in UK to a Ukrainian and then go and live in Russia - hopefully not in Moscow, but in the same sordid conditions your compromise would inflict on millions of innocent Ukrainians. Just look at what Russia has done to the Donbass since 2014...
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,200
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    Though today's report on the artillery battle is more positive in the Daily Kos.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/9/2103189/-Ukraine-update-Russia-appears-to-be-losing-the-artillery-battle-at-Severodonetsk?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=Sendible&utm_campaign=RSS

    It is quite a left wing US site, but their reporting on the battles in Ukraine has been excellent.
    That's not inconsistent with what I posted.
    Ukraine has consistently outfought and out thought the Russians; if you look at the detail of artillery losses, it's around 3:1 in their favour.
    But the larger point that they will simply be out of ammunition for the majority of their artillery by the end of this month doesn't go away.

    If they don't get large numbers of western replacements now, rather than by Christmas as Germany seems to be thinking, then the terms of battle will go against them.
    Although the Russians don’t necessarily either. What was interesting re the Kos report is that the Russian artillery barrage of Ukrainian counter-artillery position at lyschansk (sic) has dropped significantly over the past few days. The Russians also don’t seem to have significant amounts of artillery in action in the Kherson area (yes, it’s probably in Donbas but, if the Russians have such superiority, they should be able to supply both).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Mr. JohnL, maybe. But if the impact or feared impact of striking unions is more public money being thrown into a transport system that those working from home never use that may irritate voters who work remotely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,603

    For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.

    Putin has come out and said : "During the war with Sweden, Peter the Great didn't conquer anything, he took back what had always belonged to us, even though all of Europe recognised it as Sweden's. It seems now it's our turn to get our lands back [smiling]".

    This is just the latest in a series of comments about his long-term aims. He sees vast areas of eastern Europe as Russian, and wants to get them back. And he is willing to use force to do so. Ukraine is just a small part of that.

    The *only* way to get peace is for Ukraine to beat Russia, and for Russia to know it is beaten. Any sordid little compromise, any attempt to save Russian honour (what honour?) will just lead to more attacks in the future.

    If you want to compromise with Russia by ceding them Ukrainian territory, I might suggest you give your property in UK to a Ukrainian and then go and live in Russia - hopefully not in Moscow, but in the same sordid conditions your compromise would inflict on millions of innocent Ukrainians. Just look at what Russia has done to the Donbass since 2014...

    Just a note - Peter occupied Berlin prior to concluding an alliance with Prussia...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,603
    Half a dozen systems isn't going to cut it.

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/08/why-long-range-western-mlrs-can-become-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/
    If we get the right amount of MLRS, use it in combination with modern reconnaissance and targeting, and move to tactics that suit these high-tech weapons, it will allow us to level the numerical superiority of the enemy, including in firepower. Appropriate preconditions will be created for a breaking point in this war.”
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    Though today's report on the artillery battle is more positive in the Daily Kos.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/9/2103189/-Ukraine-update-Russia-appears-to-be-losing-the-artillery-battle-at-Severodonetsk?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=Sendible&utm_campaign=RSS

    It is quite a left wing US site, but their reporting on the battles in Ukraine has been excellent.
    That's not inconsistent with what I posted.
    Ukraine has consistently outfought and out thought the Russians; if you look at the detail of artillery losses, it's around 3:1 in their favour.
    But the larger point that they will simply be out of ammunition for the majority of their artillery by the end of this month doesn't go away.

    If they don't get large numbers of western replacements now, rather than by Christmas as Germany seems to be thinking, then the terms of battle will go against them.
    I agree, the consumption of artillery ammunition in these battles must be massive, on both sides. I think the Russians have vast amounts, though perhaps in poor condition and getting it to the front may be a problem. Ukraines problem seems to be more of absolute numbers.

    It does look to be grinding to stalemate in the Donbas, but Ukraine retaking territory is going to be quite a challenge. Offensive operations are even bigger consumers of ordinance.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,777
    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    There are complicating factors for Russia. Yes, they have massive amounts of artillery pieces, and many of those will be available for use in Ukraine. But Russia has a massively long border, and has many neighbours who might also covet some of the vast tracts of eastern lands. Stripping equipment from these areas might be very risky in the short and medium terms.

    My WAG is that Moscow can probably only afford to send half its kit to Ukraine, because of the commitments it has around its borders and abroad. Whilst Ukraine can focus almost everything on the threat from Russia and (to a lesser extent) Belarussia.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,007
    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh. Fuel Duty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/09/match-european-fuel-tax-cuts-ease-cost-of-living-crisis-tory/

    “As Mr Johnson announced a series of wide-ranging policies in Blackpool on Thursday, senior Tories said he must go further with fuel tax cuts.

    “The Treasury has slashed duty by just five pence per litre, compared with 17 pence in Ireland and Spain and 25 pence in Germany.”

    A lot of people here were suggesting removing fuel duty yesterday. I was wondering if there is any mechanism that the govt can put in so that if they did remove/slash the duty they could stop the retailers or wholesalers taking the lids and ratcheting up their prices?

    Clearly the 5p reduction was lost within days by the look of things, swallowed by rising prices but I would worry that if they removed duty there would always be “reasons” why that cut would be eaten up and not passed on fully to consumer.

    As the above is a word jumble - is there a figure the govt could put out daily of how much petrol “should be minus the duty” to stop profiteering?

    There’s no point losing the tax revenue and then seeing it go into private companies’ pockets surely.
    Good question. It would be easy enough for government to say we are dropping 50p from a litre of petrol, and watch to see what happens with actual prices before roasting the fuel companies every night on TV. Maybe they might call the CEOs in to see Gove beforehand, to make them well aware of the requirement to be seen as fair.

    It would also be relatively straightforward to publish historic average prices less tax in various countries. As the price of the fuel itself rises, the country-specific costs of refinery and transport become a much smaller part of the equation.

    The actual cost of petrol at the moment is around 80p per litre, plus local transport costs plus taxes. 110p should be achieveable by dropping the duty which is 52p +VAT (yes, there’s VAT on the duty!).

    This comes at a direct cost of around £2bn/month, a fair amount of which comes back by reducing the cost of inflation to the public sector, and VAT revenues from other purchases.

    Politically, it says to the country that the government is listening to them, something which appears to be in short supply at the moment.

    One gets the feeling that the Treasury is quite happy with a dose of inflation, and that high fuel prices are great for the environment - as millions people are being squeezed hard by inflation in general and petrol prices in particular.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,082

    Sandpit said:

    Oh. Fuel Duty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/09/match-european-fuel-tax-cuts-ease-cost-of-living-crisis-tory/

    “As Mr Johnson announced a series of wide-ranging policies in Blackpool on Thursday, senior Tories said he must go further with fuel tax cuts.

    “The Treasury has slashed duty by just five pence per litre, compared with 17 pence in Ireland and Spain and 25 pence in Germany.”

    Coincidentally, Nigel Farage said the same thing yesterday, though he also blamed our closed refineries, for which he blames the cost of electricity here, for which he blames green stuff.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPRj2UE_RhA

    Not that senior Tories would be watching Nigel Farage videos!
    The 5p fuel duty cut is estimated to have cost 2.4 billion pounds a year.

    I understand why people want to cut by more. But where is the money coming from?

    You know- the basic question Conservatives are meant to ask?
    The front page of the BBC News website has the Government responsible for wasting £20 billion! That’s just under £9 billion on written off PPE spending and £11 billion on failing to protect against interest rises in debt servicing. Phenomenal sums.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    Nigelb said:

    Half a dozen systems isn't going to cut it.

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/08/why-long-range-western-mlrs-can-become-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/
    If we get the right amount of MLRS, use it in combination with modern reconnaissance and targeting, and move to tactics that suit these high-tech weapons, it will allow us to level the numerical superiority of the enemy, including in firepower. Appropriate preconditions will be created for a breaking point in this war.”

    It isn't just numbers though. The logistics tail for such systems is expensive in money, human and physical resources, and an increasingly complex mixture of equipment.

    Ukraine's position is approaching that of the BEF in 1915, a vastly expanded army willing to fight, but numbers outstretching skilled personnel and heavy weapons.

    This is going to be a long slugfest of a war.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,313
    Interesting we haven't had any polling saying T&H is a LibDem shoo-in....
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,200
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    Though today's report on the artillery battle is more positive in the Daily Kos.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/9/2103189/-Ukraine-update-Russia-appears-to-be-losing-the-artillery-battle-at-Severodonetsk?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=Sendible&utm_campaign=RSS

    It is quite a left wing US site, but their reporting on the battles in Ukraine has been excellent.
    That's not inconsistent with what I posted.
    Ukraine has consistently outfought and out thought the Russians; if you look at the detail of artillery losses, it's around 3:1 in their favour.
    But the larger point that they will simply be out of ammunition for the majority of their artillery by the end of this month doesn't go away.

    If they don't get large numbers of western replacements now, rather than by Christmas as Germany seems to be thinking, then the terms of battle will go against them.
    I agree, the consumption of artillery ammunition in these battles must be massive, on both sides. I think the Russians have vast amounts, though perhaps in poor condition and getting it to the front may be a problem. Ukraines problem seems to be more of absolute numbers.

    It does look to be grinding to stalemate in the Donbas, but Ukraine retaking territory is going to be quite a challenge. Offensive operations are even bigger consumers of ordinance.
    The hope for Ukraine in an offensive operation is that the Russian forces simply collapse due to low morale / unwillingness to fight, which is a bit of a grey swan event. Certainly possible. Probable? Unlikely but.

    Some other interesting pointers as well, mainly Russia likely to ask its allied states to send troops into Ukraine presumably for peacekeeping roles to free troops for the front. It’s unlikely they would agree but they may hand over equipment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,701
    If Boris Johnson wants my vote/go campaigning for the Blue Meanies in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton he should go all Churchill on Welsh miners on these rail strikers.

    The flip side is WFH looks even more attractive because of these strikes, hurrah for the RMT et al.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Dr. Foxy, we also need to prepare for energy costs over winter. More gas generation (if need be) is far better than the lights going out or electricity being rationed. But I suspect the Government will be of the opposite view.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,701
    Golly.


  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,200

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    There are complicating factors for Russia. Yes, they have massive amounts of artillery pieces, and many of those will be available for use in Ukraine. But Russia has a massively long border, and has many neighbours who might also covet some of the vast tracts of eastern lands. Stripping equipment from these areas might be very risky in the short and medium terms.

    My WAG is that Moscow can probably only afford to send half its kit to Ukraine, because of the commitments it has around its borders and abroad. Whilst Ukraine can focus almost everything on the threat from Russia and (to a lesser extent) Belarussia.
    There have been reports that China’s relations with Russia are getting increasingly tetchy with Russia demanding economic help and Russia pushing back. Moreover, the invasion has probably pushed back China’s plans on Taiwan more than anything else.

    It’s always been a fear of Russia that China will want resource rich Siberia / the Far East for itself. I don’t think they would fear a Chinese invasion ATM but there is probably concern of stripping out too much of the equipment in the case of any future tension.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036

    Interesting we haven't had any polling saying T&H is a LibDem shoo-in....

    Do you want to win T&H? If you win it, Boris will lead you into the next election.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,236

    For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.

    Putin has come out and said : "During the war with Sweden, Peter the Great didn't conquer anything, he took back what had always belonged to us, even though all of Europe recognised it as Sweden's. It seems now it's our turn to get our lands back [smiling]".

    This is just the latest in a series of comments about his long-term aims. He sees vast areas of eastern Europe as Russian, and wants to get them back. And he is willing to use force to do so. Ukraine is just a small part of that.

    The *only* way to get peace is for Ukraine to beat Russia, and for Russia to know it is beaten. Any sordid little compromise, any attempt to save Russian honour (what honour?) will just lead to more attacks in the future.

    If you want to compromise with Russia by ceding them Ukrainian territory, I might suggest you give your property in UK to a Ukrainian and then go and live in Russia - hopefully not in Moscow, but in the same sordid conditions your compromise would inflict on millions of innocent Ukrainians. Just look at what Russia has done to the Donbass since 2014...

    The issue here is that you have to be willing to fight him for the long term. His calculation is that Russia has greater resolve than the West, and it can grind through hundreds of dead soldiers per day indefinetely, and its population can deal with the associated poverty better than the decadent western democracies. I think the problem is going to be with western resolve in light of the unfolding economic impacts. Even if you believe strongly in the war against Russia, as I do, it may be difficult to sustain.

    As an aside, at the moment, there are also problems festering with Turkey. Did not do anything to deter Finland and Sweden from applying to join NATO thus ending their historic neutrality, but are now opposing it after they applied, and have sought to play the two countries off against each other; and a few days ago Lavrov turns up in Turkey. What you could say from all this is that they are not a particularly reliable ally.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,701

    Interesting we haven't had any polling saying T&H is a LibDem shoo-in....

    I'll say it again, the Tories could hold the seat thanks to a split opposition.

    This was a pretty good pointer to me that it isn't the nailed on Yellow Peril gain people think it is.

    Tiverton and Honiton by-election: Ex-Labour minister appears to suggest voters go Lib Dem

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tiverton-honiton-lib-dems-ben-bradshaw-b2088716.html
  • RattersRatters Posts: 332
    The calls for tax cuts really do show how out of touch which economic reality the Tories are.

    We are heading into an inflation induced recession. Tax cuts are inflationary.

    We have a huge deficit and quickly rising interest rate costs given the inflation-linked element and rising rates. Tax cuts increase the deficit from a high starting position.

    I'd have never voted for him, but I think even McDonnell would have been more fiscally responsible than the current Tory government.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311

    Dr. Foxy, we also need to prepare for energy costs over winter. More gas generation (if need be) is far better than the lights going out or electricity being rationed. But I suspect the Government will be of the opposite view.

    Ultimately the way to resolve the energy and food price crisis is to end or at least reduce sanctions on Russia. That is the unpalatable truth, and unlikely to happen soon. A long war, even a military stalemate, with sanctions may well mean years of this to come. There might be a glut though as new LPG and fracking is created, then sanctions dropped. Prices could all get a bit bouncy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,313
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Half a dozen systems isn't going to cut it.

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/08/why-long-range-western-mlrs-can-become-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/
    If we get the right amount of MLRS, use it in combination with modern reconnaissance and targeting, and move to tactics that suit these high-tech weapons, it will allow us to level the numerical superiority of the enemy, including in firepower. Appropriate preconditions will be created for a breaking point in this war.”

    It isn't just numbers though. The logistics tail for such systems is expensive in money, human and physical resources, and an increasingly complex mixture of equipment.

    Ukraine's position is approaching that of the BEF in 1915, a vastly expanded army willing to fight, but numbers outstretching skilled personnel and heavy weapons.

    This is going to be a long slugfest of a war.
    One element not commented upon here is that Russia is putting a lot of effort to try and destroy in transit the NATO-gifted weapons from reaching the east. The attacks on Kyiv recently, on arms dumps, on railways, the downing of a plane apparently carrying arms - all suggest they have very solid intelligence on the movement of this kit. Plus, Russia has a massive amount of low level and somewhat higher level spies operating in country.

    Sadly, I expect a significant proportion never to make it to the front.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311

    Interesting we haven't had any polling saying T&H is a LibDem shoo-in....

    I'll say it again, the Tories could hold the seat thanks to a split opposition.

    This was a pretty good pointer to me that it isn't the nailed on Yellow Peril gain people think it is.

    Tiverton and Honiton by-election: Ex-Labour minister appears to suggest voters go Lib Dem

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tiverton-honiton-lib-dems-ben-bradshaw-b2088716.html
    Yes, my book is on "close but no cigar" for the LD in Tiverton, and a convincing Lab victory in Wakefield.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,007

    Sandpit said:

    Oh. Fuel Duty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/09/match-european-fuel-tax-cuts-ease-cost-of-living-crisis-tory/

    “As Mr Johnson announced a series of wide-ranging policies in Blackpool on Thursday, senior Tories said he must go further with fuel tax cuts.

    “The Treasury has slashed duty by just five pence per litre, compared with 17 pence in Ireland and Spain and 25 pence in Germany.”

    Coincidentally, Nigel Farage said the same thing yesterday, though he also blamed our closed refineries, for which he blames the cost of electricity here, for which he blames green stuff.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPRj2UE_RhA

    Not that senior Tories would be watching Nigel Farage videos!
    Having just sat through that, like most Farage stuff there’s a fair bit of truth and a fair bit of crap in it.

    He starts off by saying the oil price hasn’t changed, which is rubbish - it went up 15% in May alone, and is now higher still.

    He’s right that refining in the UK is down, and he’s right about the reasons for it, more expensive electricity thanks to green levies.

    IMO his argument that government is to blame, is going to start gaining traction if they don’t do something about petrol and then domestic electricity bills in the autumn. The government won’t be able to say it’s the same elsewhere in Europe, becuase Farage will say they all signed up to the “COP26 crap”, and we left the EU so we could follow our own path.

    Yes, it’s very much over-simplistic, but over-simplistic is something that Farage is very good at!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,728
    edited June 10
    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    There are complicating factors for Russia. Yes, they have massive amounts of artillery pieces, and many of those will be available for use in Ukraine. But Russia has a massively long border, and has many neighbours who might also covet some of the vast tracts of eastern lands. Stripping equipment from these areas might be very risky in the short and medium terms.

    My WAG is that Moscow can probably only afford to send half its kit to Ukraine, because of the commitments it has around its borders and abroad. Whilst Ukraine can focus almost everything on the threat from Russia and (to a lesser extent) Belarussia.
    There have been reports that China’s relations with Russia are getting increasingly tetchy with Russia demanding economic help and Russia pushing back. Moreover, the invasion has probably pushed back China’s plans on Taiwan more than anything else.

    It’s always been a fear of Russia that China will want resource rich Siberia / the Far East for itself. I don’t think they would fear a Chinese invasion ATM but there is probably concern of stripping out too much of the equipment in the case of any future tension.
    No way are China invading Taiwan after Russias failures in Ukraine. It would be a much more difficult supply problem than Russia has found and clearly no walkover.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,603
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Half a dozen systems isn't going to cut it.

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/08/why-long-range-western-mlrs-can-become-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/
    If we get the right amount of MLRS, use it in combination with modern reconnaissance and targeting, and move to tactics that suit these high-tech weapons, it will allow us to level the numerical superiority of the enemy, including in firepower. Appropriate preconditions will be created for a breaking point in this war.”

    It isn't just numbers though. The logistics tail for such systems is expensive in money, human and physical resources, and an increasingly complex mixture of equipment.

    Ukraine's position is approaching that of the BEF in 1915, a vastly expanded army willing to fight, but numbers outstretching skilled personnel and heavy weapons.

    This is going to be a long slugfest of a war.
    Quite possibly not if they don't get more kit pretty soon.
    And even a long slugfest is going to present huge economic problems for the entire world.

    For the last month or so, it's looked as though the west is trying to calibrate the amount of support it offers. At the moment, Ukraine is taking a couple of hundred casualties a day just to slow the Russian advance.
    With sufficient kit, the war could be won fairly quickly. Neutralise their artillery, and Russia wouldn't have the ability to conduct an offence.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,006
    Seems fairly easy to blackmail the oilcos into passing on duty cuts with windfall tax threats
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,534
    edited June 10
    darkage said:

    For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.

    Putin has come out and said : "During the war with Sweden, Peter the Great didn't conquer anything, he took back what had always belonged to us, even though all of Europe recognised it as Sweden's. It seems now it's our turn to get our lands back [smiling]".

    This is just the latest in a series of comments about his long-term aims. He sees vast areas of eastern Europe as Russian, and wants to get them back. And he is willing to use force to do so. Ukraine is just a small part of that.

    The *only* way to get peace is for Ukraine to beat Russia, and for Russia to know it is beaten. Any sordid little compromise, any attempt to save Russian honour (what honour?) will just lead to more attacks in the future.

    If you want to compromise with Russia by ceding them Ukrainian territory, I might suggest you give your property in UK to a Ukrainian and then go and live in Russia - hopefully not in Moscow, but in the same sordid conditions your compromise would inflict on millions of innocent Ukrainians. Just look at what Russia has done to the Donbass since 2014...

    The issue here is that you have to be willing to fight him for the long term. His calculation is that Russia has greater resolve than the West, and it can grind through hundreds of dead soldiers per day indefinetely, and its population can deal with the associated poverty better than the decadent western democracies. I think the problem is going to be with western resolve in light of the unfolding economic impacts. Even if you believe strongly in the war against Russia, as I do, it may be difficult to sustain.

    As an aside, at the moment, there are also problems festering with Turkey. Did not do anything to deter Finland and Sweden from applying to join NATO thus ending their historic neutrality, but are now opposing it after they applied, and have sought to play the two countries off against each other; and a few days ago Lavrov turns up in Turkey. What you could say from all this is that they are not a particularly reliable ally.
    There is definitely something worrying going on with Turkey at the moment, as mentioned yesterday. They seem to be "co-ordinating" on a number of issues, quite independently of NATO. Last week, for instance, Russia raised an objection to Turkey's new threatened incursion in Syria, so they immediately called a meeting to confer and work out an agreed position on it together.

    Meanwhile, he's not showing the slightest sign of wanting to compromise on Finland and Sweden, and is also suddenly dredging up the issue of the military on Greek islands - both Turkey and Greece have had military on the islands controlled by them, not really in keeping with the Treaty of Lausanne that he now keeps talking about, for almost 50 years - as a potential casus belli against the Greeks.

    All rather concerning, as I highlighted yesterday.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,169
    Foxy said:

    Interesting we haven't had any polling saying T&H is a LibDem shoo-in....

    I'll say it again, the Tories could hold the seat thanks to a split opposition.

    This was a pretty good pointer to me that it isn't the nailed on Yellow Peril gain people think it is.

    Tiverton and Honiton by-election: Ex-Labour minister appears to suggest voters go Lib Dem

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tiverton-honiton-lib-dems-ben-bradshaw-b2088716.html
    Yes, my book is on "close but no cigar" for the LD in Tiverton, and a convincing Lab victory in Wakefield.
    Good morning all.
    I don't think we've really heard very much really from Tiverton lately and postal votes should be to-ing and fro-ing now, shouldn't they?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036
    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    It's curious that they've gone for the week between Ascot and Wimbledon. The only thing that seems to be affected is Pilton Glastonbury.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,006
    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074

    Golly.


    https://news.sky.com/story/i-wish-he-could-be-but-he-isnt-britains-strictest-headteacher-says-boris-johnson-is-no-role-model-for-children-12630957
    'I wish he could be, but he isn't': Britain's strictest headteacher says Boris Johnson is no role model for children > watch our interview with Katherine Birbalsingh on @skynews now
  • Ratters said:

    The calls for tax cuts really do show how out of touch which economic reality the Tories are.

    We are heading into an inflation induced recession. Tax cuts are inflationary.

    We have a huge deficit and quickly rising interest rate costs given the inflation-linked element and rising rates. Tax cuts increase the deficit from a high starting position.

    I'd have never voted for him, but I think even McDonnell would have been more fiscally responsible than the current Tory government.

    The inflation is caused by rising prices, due to external factors, not internal factors though.

    People see the rising prices and demand wage/pension increases to match the external price rises, which then internalises the inflation. Once that happens its much tougher to break the cycle.

    If you want to prevent that cycle from starting then tax cuts, in a wartime budget, can be deflationary. If fuel duty were to be suspended for the duration of the war, then fuel would revert to about £1.20 per litre, that would reverse the inflation of that overnight. Abolish VAT on energy, the price of energy goes down.

    The price of energy, both fuel and electricity/gas feed inflation in everything else in the economy. Both of those are feeding into everything right now and they are causing the inflation, but half of the price of fuel is tax. Suspend the tax as a wartime budget, the inflation is gone and the inflationary price cycle is broken.

    Borrowing isn't good, but borrowing during times of war make sense and internalising the external shock of the energy crisis may not be what you want.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,007
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    It's curious that they've gone for the week between Ascot and Wimbledon. The only thing that seems to be affected is Pilton Glastonbury.
    Why would they want to disrupt the summer social season of the union barons?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Half a dozen systems isn't going to cut it.

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/08/why-long-range-western-mlrs-can-become-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/
    If we get the right amount of MLRS, use it in combination with modern reconnaissance and targeting, and move to tactics that suit these high-tech weapons, it will allow us to level the numerical superiority of the enemy, including in firepower. Appropriate preconditions will be created for a breaking point in this war.”

    It isn't just numbers though. The logistics tail for such systems is expensive in money, human and physical resources, and an increasingly complex mixture of equipment.

    Ukraine's position is approaching that of the BEF in 1915, a vastly expanded army willing to fight, but numbers outstretching skilled personnel and heavy weapons.

    This is going to be a long slugfest of a war.
    Quite possibly not if they don't get more kit pretty soon.
    And even a long slugfest is going to present huge economic problems for the entire world.

    For the last month or so, it's looked as though the west is trying to calibrate the amount of support it offers. At the moment, Ukraine is taking a couple of hundred casualties a day just to slow the Russian advance.
    With sufficient kit, the war could be won fairly quickly. Neutralise their artillery, and Russia wouldn't have the ability to conduct an offence.
    Yes, though that would mean a stalemate in current positions. It is hard to see Ukraine mounting a major offensive with current resources.

    In the absence of a Russian collapse we could be looking at much the same front lines at Christmas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,603
    Foxy said:

    Dr. Foxy, we also need to prepare for energy costs over winter. More gas generation (if need be) is far better than the lights going out or electricity being rationed. But I suspect the Government will be of the opposite view.

    Ultimately the way to resolve the energy and food price crisis is to end or at least reduce sanctions on Russia. That is the unpalatable truth, and unlikely to happen soon. A long war, even a military stalemate, with sanctions may well mean years of this to come. There might be a glut though as new LPG and fracking is created, then sanctions dropped. Prices could all get a bit bouncy.
    As I said, a quicker end to the war - with a defeat of the invasion - is very much in all our interests.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,455
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
    Would have thought pissing off top hatted Tory toffs might engender some public sympathy if anything. Desperately unfair on said THTTs of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,007

    Ratters said:

    The calls for tax cuts really do show how out of touch which economic reality the Tories are.

    We are heading into an inflation induced recession. Tax cuts are inflationary.

    We have a huge deficit and quickly rising interest rate costs given the inflation-linked element and rising rates. Tax cuts increase the deficit from a high starting position.

    I'd have never voted for him, but I think even McDonnell would have been more fiscally responsible than the current Tory government.

    The inflation is caused by rising prices, due to external factors, not internal factors though.

    People see the rising prices and demand wage/pension increases to match the external price rises, which then internalises the inflation. Once that happens its much tougher to break the cycle.

    If you want to prevent that cycle from starting then tax cuts, in a wartime budget, can be deflationary. If fuel duty were to be suspended for the duration of the war, then fuel would revert to about £1.20 per litre, that would reverse the inflation of that overnight. Abolish VAT on energy, the price of energy goes down.

    The price of energy, both fuel and electricity/gas feed inflation in everything else in the economy. Both of those are feeding into everything right now and they are causing the inflation, but half of the price of fuel is tax. Suspend the tax as a wartime budget, the inflation is gone and the inflationary price cycle is broken.

    Borrowing isn't good, but borrowing during times of war make sense and internalising the external shock of the energy crisis may not be what you want.
    Indeed. The prices of fuel and utilities *are* the inflation at the moment. It’s very much unlike the textbook scenario of rising prices within the economy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    edited June 10

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
    Would have thought pissing off top hatted Tory toffs might engender some public sympathy if anything. Desperately unfair on said THTTs of course.
    Do many THTT go to Ascot by rail? Or Wimbledon for that matter? Or many go to Glasto that way?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311

    Ratters said:

    The calls for tax cuts really do show how out of touch which economic reality the Tories are.

    We are heading into an inflation induced recession. Tax cuts are inflationary.

    We have a huge deficit and quickly rising interest rate costs given the inflation-linked element and rising rates. Tax cuts increase the deficit from a high starting position.

    I'd have never voted for him, but I think even McDonnell would have been more fiscally responsible than the current Tory government.

    The inflation is caused by rising prices, due to external factors, not internal factors though.

    People see the rising prices and demand wage/pension increases to match the external price rises, which then internalises the inflation. Once that happens its much tougher to break the cycle.

    If you want to prevent that cycle from starting then tax cuts, in a wartime budget, can be deflationary. If fuel duty were to be suspended for the duration of the war, then fuel would revert to about £1.20 per litre, that would reverse the inflation of that overnight. Abolish VAT on energy, the price of energy goes down.

    The price of energy, both fuel and electricity/gas feed inflation in everything else in the economy. Both of those are feeding into everything right now and they are causing the inflation, but half of the price of fuel is tax. Suspend the tax as a wartime budget, the inflation is gone and the inflationary price cycle is broken.

    Borrowing isn't good, but borrowing during times of war make sense and internalising the external shock of the energy crisis may not be what you want.
    And that is why decent pay rises for the workers are not as inflationary as made out. A payrise for rail below RPI but above the current offer is how this ends.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,006
    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    There are complicating factors for Russia. Yes, they have massive amounts of artillery pieces, and many of those will be available for use in Ukraine. But Russia has a massively long border, and has many neighbours who might also covet some of the vast tracts of eastern lands. Stripping equipment from these areas might be very risky in the short and medium terms.

    My WAG is that Moscow can probably only afford to send half its kit to Ukraine, because of the commitments it has around its borders and abroad. Whilst Ukraine can focus almost everything on the threat from Russia and (to a lesser extent) Belarussia.
    There have been reports that China’s relations with Russia are getting increasingly tetchy with Russia demanding economic help and Russia pushing back. Moreover, the invasion has probably pushed back China’s plans on Taiwan more than anything else.

    It’s always been a fear of Russia that China will want resource rich Siberia / the Far East for itself. I don’t think they would fear a Chinese invasion ATM but there is probably concern of stripping out too much of the equipment in the case of any future tension.
    No way are China invading Taiwan after Russias failures in Ukraine. It would be a much more difficult supply problem than Russia has found and clearly no walkover.
    The ballgames are so different that's like thinking you can read across from a NZ England cricket test result to draw conclusions about France Wales in the rugby
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,007
    edited June 10
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
    Would have thought pissing off top hatted Tory toffs might engender some public sympathy if anything. Desperately unfair on said THTTs of course.
    Do many THTT go to Ascot by rail? Or Wimbledon for that matter? Or many go to Glasto that way?
    Ascot is probably 50/50 car and train. The station is right next to the racecourse, and they put on extra trains from both Waterloo and Reading during the week. Going by car is difficult and expensive if you’re not in the Royal Enclosure.

    I bet all the journalists go by train though.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    Russia, China, warn US its cyber support of Ukraine has consequences
    Countries that accept US infosec help told they could pay a price too

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/06/10/russia_china_usa_ukraine_cyberdefense/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,728
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
    Yeah maybe. A quarter of a million over the week but yes you're probably right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,234
    2 pence on the higher rate of income tax and fuel duty to nil.

    How would that affect the nation's finances ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    There are complicating factors for Russia. Yes, they have massive amounts of artillery pieces, and many of those will be available for use in Ukraine. But Russia has a massively long border, and has many neighbours who might also covet some of the vast tracts of eastern lands. Stripping equipment from these areas might be very risky in the short and medium terms.

    My WAG is that Moscow can probably only afford to send half its kit to Ukraine, because of the commitments it has around its borders and abroad. Whilst Ukraine can focus almost everything on the threat from Russia and (to a lesser extent) Belarussia.
    There have been reports that China’s relations with Russia are getting increasingly tetchy with Russia demanding economic help and Russia pushing back. Moreover, the invasion has probably pushed back China’s plans on Taiwan more than anything else.

    It’s always been a fear of Russia that China will want resource rich Siberia / the Far East for itself. I don’t think they would fear a Chinese invasion ATM but there is probably concern of stripping out too much of the equipment in the case of any future tension.
    No way are China invading Taiwan after Russias failures in Ukraine. It would be a much more difficult supply problem than Russia has found and clearly no walkover.
    The ballgames are so different that's like thinking you can read across from a NZ England cricket test result to draw conclusions about France Wales in the rugby
    No, the resilience of Ukraine, and the relative technological capability of Taiwan must give the PLA pause for thought. Crossing that strait with an invasion fleet would involve massive losses and likely humiliation, even allowing that the PLA is a much better fighting force than the Russians.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,009
    edited June 10
    Foxy said:

    Ratters said:

    The calls for tax cuts really do show how out of touch which economic reality the Tories are.

    We are heading into an inflation induced recession. Tax cuts are inflationary.

    We have a huge deficit and quickly rising interest rate costs given the inflation-linked element and rising rates. Tax cuts increase the deficit from a high starting position.

    I'd have never voted for him, but I think even McDonnell would have been more fiscally responsible than the current Tory government.

    The inflation is caused by rising prices, due to external factors, not internal factors though.

    People see the rising prices and demand wage/pension increases to match the external price rises, which then internalises the inflation. Once that happens its much tougher to break the cycle.

    If you want to prevent that cycle from starting then tax cuts, in a wartime budget, can be deflationary. If fuel duty were to be suspended for the duration of the war, then fuel would revert to about £1.20 per litre, that would reverse the inflation of that overnight. Abolish VAT on energy, the price of energy goes down.

    The price of energy, both fuel and electricity/gas feed inflation in everything else in the economy. Both of those are feeding into everything right now and they are causing the inflation, but half of the price of fuel is tax. Suspend the tax as a wartime budget, the inflation is gone and the inflationary price cycle is broken.

    Borrowing isn't good, but borrowing during times of war make sense and internalising the external shock of the energy crisis may not be what you want.
    And that is why decent pay rises for the workers are not as inflationary as made out. A payrise for rail below RPI but above the current offer is how this ends.
    ScotRail drivers have just agreed 5% plus odds and ends;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61737750
  • eekeek Posts: 19,261
    Pulpstar said:

    2 pence on the higher rate of income tax and fuel duty to nil.

    How would that affect the nation's finances ?

    I doubt it's enough given that it needs to raise £25bn - but I can't find out enough details about the 40% and above bands to give you an accurate answer.

    I suspect it would need to be 44p rather than 40p.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,728
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
    Would have thought pissing off top hatted Tory toffs might engender some public sympathy if anything. Desperately unfair on said THTTs of course.
    Do many THTT go to Ascot by rail? Or Wimbledon for that matter? Or many go to Glasto that way?
    Rail (not that I know about THTTs, obvs). It's a super easy connection from London (and even from Leicester).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,302
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    There are complicating factors for Russia. Yes, they have massive amounts of artillery pieces, and many of those will be available for use in Ukraine. But Russia has a massively long border, and has many neighbours who might also covet some of the vast tracts of eastern lands. Stripping equipment from these areas might be very risky in the short and medium terms.

    My WAG is that Moscow can probably only afford to send half its kit to Ukraine, because of the commitments it has around its borders and abroad. Whilst Ukraine can focus almost everything on the threat from Russia and (to a lesser extent) Belarussia.
    There have been reports that China’s relations with Russia are getting increasingly tetchy with Russia demanding economic help and Russia pushing back. Moreover, the invasion has probably pushed back China’s plans on Taiwan more than anything else.

    It’s always been a fear of Russia that China will want resource rich Siberia / the Far East for itself. I don’t think they would fear a Chinese invasion ATM but there is probably concern of stripping out too much of the equipment in the case of any future tension.
    No way are China invading Taiwan after Russias failures in Ukraine. It would be a much more difficult supply problem than Russia has found and clearly no walkover.
    The ballgames are so different that's like thinking you can read across from a NZ England cricket test result to draw conclusions about France Wales in the rugby
    No, the resilience of Ukraine, and the relative technological capability of Taiwan must give the PLA pause for thought. Crossing that strait with an invasion fleet would involve massive losses and likely humiliation, even allowing that the PLA is a much better fighting force than the Russians.
    A good deal of Chinese military equipment has a basis of Soviet/Russian designs and concepts - where it isn't licensed built copies or bought from Russia. The Chinese Navy is apparently not to happy with what it has seen of the performance of Russian ships and the same for the Airforce.

    I would imagine that the idea that "Our Taiwanese Brothers will welcome us " is not quite so believed as before - the Chinese government used to push that out every so often....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,957
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
    Would have thought pissing off top hatted Tory toffs might engender some public sympathy if anything. Desperately unfair on said THTTs of course.
    Do many THTT go to Ascot by rail? Or Wimbledon for that matter? Or many go to Glasto that way?
    During Glastonbury Festival there is a constant torrent of pedestrians between Castle Cary station and Worthy Farm.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074
    “The economic damage that Brexit has caused is becoming clearer and harder to ignore”. Candour and clarity from ITV correspondent. We need an equally honest debate about how to limit the damage going forward.
    https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1535142436346990592
    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-06-09/brexit-cost-the-uk-billions-in-lost-trade-and-tax-revenues-research-finds
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,946
    Ironic if an RMT strike ends up boosting the Tories
  • RattersRatters Posts: 332
    edited June 10
    Sandpit said:

    Ratters said:

    The calls for tax cuts really do show how out of touch which economic reality the Tories are.

    We are heading into an inflation induced recession. Tax cuts are inflationary.

    We have a huge deficit and quickly rising interest rate costs given the inflation-linked element and rising rates. Tax cuts increase the deficit from a high starting position.

    I'd have never voted for him, but I think even McDonnell would have been more fiscally responsible than the current Tory government.

    The inflation is caused by rising prices, due to external factors, not internal factors though.

    People see the rising prices and demand wage/pension increases to match the external price rises, which then internalises the inflation. Once that happens its much tougher to break the cycle.

    If you want to prevent that cycle from starting then tax cuts, in a wartime budget, can be deflationary. If fuel duty were to be suspended for the duration of the war, then fuel would revert to about £1.20 per litre, that would reverse the inflation of that overnight. Abolish VAT on energy, the price of energy goes down.

    The price of energy, both fuel and electricity/gas feed inflation in everything else in the economy. Both of those are feeding into everything right now and they are causing the inflation, but half of the price of fuel is tax. Suspend the tax as a wartime budget, the inflation is gone and the inflationary price cycle is broken.

    Borrowing isn't good, but borrowing during times of war make sense and internalising the external shock of the energy crisis may not be what you want.
    Indeed. The prices of fuel and utilities *are* the inflation at the moment. It’s very much unlike the textbook scenario of rising prices within the economy.
    The price of energy is the most striking part of inflation, but it is not by any means the only part, from the FT:

    "Meanwhile, other goods and services contributed 5.5 percentage points to UK inflation in April, similar to the US and Canada."

    Inflation would be well above target even stripping out the impact of energy price rises. All while we have record low unemployment meaning wages will rise.

    Cutting fuel duty is just adding fuel to the fire.

    https://on.ft.com/3O8dfv7
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,863
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a (very) long thread on the state of Ukraine’s artillery.

    https://twitter.com/DanDev43761642/status/1534978659844603922
    Russia has huge advantage in the amounts of artillery. Even if the russians lose 10 artillery pieces for each one that Ukraine loses, they still will run out of their artillery later than Ukraine, if UA army doesn't get enough 155-mm Western artillery, MLRS and tactical missiles.

    They will run out of ammunition for their Russian era kit in the next two to three weeks, and there are no sources from which it can be replenished.

    The NATO standard kit they’ve started to be supplied with will do the job, ut the numbers that have been delivered are about a tenth of what’s necessary.
    The situation with battlefield missiles (MRLS) is even worse.

    Either the west supplies them what they need, rapidly - in which case they will win the war - or they will lose. Losing will take longer, but it’s likely to happen, even if Russia will find it difficult, maybe impossible to govern conquered territory.
    The latter case would be very dangerous indeed, both militarily and economically, for all of Europe.

    Though today's report on the artillery battle is more positive in the Daily Kos.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/9/2103189/-Ukraine-update-Russia-appears-to-be-losing-the-artillery-battle-at-Severodonetsk?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=Sendible&utm_campaign=RSS

    It is quite a left wing US site, but their reporting on the battles in Ukraine has been excellent.
    That's not inconsistent with what I posted.
    Ukraine has consistently outfought and out thought the Russians; if you look at the detail of artillery losses, it's around 3:1 in their favour.
    But the larger point that they will simply be out of ammunition for the majority of their artillery by the end of this month doesn't go away.

    If they don't get large numbers of western replacements now, rather than by Christmas as Germany seems to be thinking, then the terms of battle will go against them.
    Yes. I'm a bit concerned that just at the point Ukraine is going to run out of ammunition for its Soviet equipment, the West is going to run out of surplus equipment to send to Ukraine. Have we spent the last few months manufacturing more artillery pieces?

    Someone mentioned the Ajax procurement recently, which is a typical example of a peacetime luxury, where it doesn't make a whole lot of difference if delivery is delayed for several years - but what new armoured vehicles are we going to build for Ukraine over the next few months? We don't seem to have shifted to a wartime level of equipment production.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074
    Me for @NewStatesman on the prospect of rows over Europe, some Tory MPs trying to resist recklessness while Johnson appeals to the Right & deploys exceptional measures against opponents. It could soon start to feel like the Brexit wars again. https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/06/tories-heading-repeat-brexit-wars-david-gauke
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,946
    Note on QT last night Wes Streeting said if he was in the RMT he would have voted to go on strike, reiterating Nandy's support for the strike yesterday. That is 2 Shadow Cabinet members behind it and its disruption

    https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1535019051017191424?s=20&t=V93rxUWmrwMMi3_dwM6V1w
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,474
    Nigelb said:

    Half a dozen systems isn't going to cut it.

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/08/why-long-range-western-mlrs-can-become-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/
    If we get the right amount of MLRS, use it in combination with modern reconnaissance and targeting, and move to tactics that suit these high-tech weapons, it will allow us to level the numerical superiority of the enemy, including in firepower. Appropriate preconditions will be created for a breaking point in this war.”

    This MLRS business is weird and what strikes me is, why now? They would have been a lot more fucking use in January as a deterrent to invasion.

    The Javelins and other ATGMs that everyone was wanking off over are great if the Russians have already invaded and are at the end of your street but they were no use for preventing an invasion or holding it at the border.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,728
    Dura_Ace said:

    For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.

    What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.

    What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.

    So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
    Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.

    Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
    Would have thought pissing off top hatted Tory toffs might engender some public sympathy if anything. Desperately unfair on said THTTs of course.
    Do many THTT go to Ascot by rail? Or Wimbledon for that matter? Or many go to Glasto that way?
    Spot the non-Glastonbury years...


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    Dura_Ace said:

    For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.

    What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.

    What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.

    So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
    I don't think either side is minded to compromise at present, so more likely a defacto halt than one negotiated, with some shelling.

    I do wonder if the Ukranians are planning a bigger offensive in Kherson and towards Melitopol. Recovering those would be a much better negotiating position.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036
    A lot go by train to Ascot, and SWR add Wimbledon as stop on the fasts during the Championships.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,189
    edited June 10
    Good morning

    With respect to the thread, nothing can help the conservatives until 33 more join the 148 and do the decent thing
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,946
    Most important shipwreck since the Mary Rose found off Norfolk, the Gloucester, shipwrecked carrying the future James IInd. Although he survived much of the crew did not

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-61734192
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074
    Very short thread on this. We can't blame Brexit for all of the 5.2% GDP shortfall against a doppelganger UK, but it's apparent that Brexit is largely to blame. 1/ https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1535154801050152961
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    A minor positive for the Tories is news has been so bad its practically assumed they will lose Tiverton, which given the swing needed is still not guaranteed, so they can pretend a corner has been turned if they do just hang on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074
    Parliament blocks disclosure of MPs’ porn site visits on ‘national security’ grounds https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-porn-parliament-neil-parish-national-security-b2097695.html

    The interesting this about this is Parliament has repeatedly disclosed the same information in previous years, but they now say they’ve changed their policy and consider disclosure a risk to their computer systems (the FOI act itself hasn’t changed just their view)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,534
    edited June 10
    Hmm.

    "Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.

    Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Half a dozen systems isn't going to cut it.

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/08/why-long-range-western-mlrs-can-become-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/
    If we get the right amount of MLRS, use it in combination with modern reconnaissance and targeting, and move to tactics that suit these high-tech weapons, it will allow us to level the numerical superiority of the enemy, including in firepower. Appropriate preconditions will be created for a breaking point in this war.”

    This MLRS business is weird and what strikes me is, why now? They would have been a lot more fucking use in January as a deterrent to invasion.

    The Javelins and other ATGMs that everyone was wanking off over are great if the Russians have already invaded and are at the end of your street but they were no use for preventing an invasion or holding it at the border.
    The Daily Kos military correspondent is a vet with experience maintaining the US system. He recognises how tricky they are to operate.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/20/2099183/-Ukraine-Update-As-Ukraine-begs-for-MLRS-here-s-a-weapons-system-we-absolutely-shouldn-t-send-them?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=Sendible&utm_campaign=RSS
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,189
    Scott_xP said:

    “The economic damage that Brexit has caused is becoming clearer and harder to ignore”. Candour and clarity from ITV correspondent. We need an equally honest debate about how to limit the damage going forward.
    https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1535142436346990592
    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-06-09/brexit-cost-the-uk-billions-in-lost-trade-and-tax-revenues-research-finds

    You may be surprised but I agree with you and single market with FOM is something I would support but no further

    However, that is not political acceptable even by labour at present
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,863
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.

    What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.

    What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.

    So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
    Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.

    Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
    I don't think there is a solution other than a total Ukrainian victory. Anything else just leads to a resumption of hostilities at some point int he future when Russia tries to conquer more territory.

    It might be that the best route to a Ukrainian victory is via a de facto ceasefire, during which the Ukrainian armed forces can be supplied with more NATO equipment and trained to use it, so that they can win round 3, but that's different from the delusion that there is a durable peace settlement with Russia that involves ceding territory. That only feeds Russian expansionist ambitions.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Mr. xP, I bet the humiliation and exhibitionist fetishists are disappointed not to be punished publicly.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,534
    edited June 10

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.

    What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.

    What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.

    So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
    Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.

    Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
    I don't think there is a solution other than a total Ukrainian victory. Anything else just leads to a resumption of hostilities at some point int he future when Russia tries to conquer more territory.

    It might be that the best route to a Ukrainian victory is via a de facto ceasefire, during which the Ukrainian armed forces can be supplied with more NATO equipment and trained to use it, so that they can win round 3, but that's different from the delusion that there is a durable peace settlement with Russia that involves ceding territory. That only feeds Russian expansionist ambitions.
    I can't see how there can be a total Ukrainian victory against a much larger power. That could only happen with the fall of Putin, which doesn't seem to be on the cards, at least not for some considerable length of time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    It shouldn't be, but its still somewhat amazing how few Americans seem to care about what was attempted on January 6th. Call it a coup or not it should have blackened the names of those associated with provoking it, yet that doesnt seem the case.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,189
    HYUFD said:

    Most important shipwreck since the Mary Rose found off Norfolk, the Gloucester, shipwrecked carrying the future James IInd. Although he survived much of the crew did not

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-61734192

    Bigger than Boris !!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,234

    Hmm.

    "Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.

    Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."

    Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.

    Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,455
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Imagine if the train strike was over Ascot week. Is there a minimum notice period they had to give because otherwise to have struck that (next) week would have been hugely effective and made them hugely reviled also, both of which they seem to be after.

    Ascot is not the cup final, I think the outrage would be a bit more niche than you think
    Would have thought pissing off top hatted Tory toffs might engender some public sympathy if anything. Desperately unfair on said THTTs of course.
    Curious how

    - rail strikes in Scotland, SNP blamed by PBTories ad nauseam
    - rail strikes in England, large chunks of which are nationalised including the infrastructure, Tories not at all blamed by PBTories, oh no nothing to do with them, it's all Union Barons (what is this, the 1970s?)
    Curious = not curious of course.

    I await eagerly the first pivot from ‘Haha, EssEnnPee getting rightly shafted by RMT’ to ‘Bloody EssEnnPee giving in to greedy RMT blackmailing barstewards’.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    HYUFD said:

    Note on QT last night Wes Streeting said if he was in the RMT he would have voted to go on strike, reiterating Nandy's support for the strike yesterday. That is 2 Shadow Cabinet members behind it and its disruption

    https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1535019051017191424?s=20&t=V93rxUWmrwMMi3_dwM6V1w

    Be sure to let us know who supports the management side and its disruption.
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