"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.
Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.
Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Depends how you view it. Turkiye is creating buffer zones up to 30km deep in Syria where it is relocating refugees. No idea how "occupied" or "protected" they will be.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.
Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.
Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
As an aside, there's a part of Syria which is forever Turkish. Although it seems to move around a fair bit...
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.
Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.
Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
It is completely different. Erdogan is a bully and a thug but he doesn’t want to expand Turkey into Syria.
Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
On Topic. 😂 well done hard left union Barons helping to save Big Dog!
All part of the cunning plan - keep Big Dog in office, making it easier for Labour to win in 2024!
One of the two rail Unions (ASLEF) has reached a settlement (5% iirc) in Scotland. RMT were more nakedly political - not sure that that has changed.
There will be an interesting game of industrial dispute chess coming up.
I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years! I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
As we are often arguing here I thought it nice to post something pleasant re elections. I was reminded of this by the discussion I just had with @hyufd re Agents.
I have had two very pleasant experiences with my opposite numbers in both the Tory party and Labour party.
One election we were getting absolutely wiped out. We had lost all our seats to the Tories with just one remaining which was going to a recount with us just in the lead and it was for a well known popular councillor. The Tory agent conceded before he needed to. They might have actually won it, but he decided enough was enough. It was a genuine gesture.
On another occasion the returning office made a bizarre decision re a ballot paper in the spoilt pile. I was pretty sure we had won and if we had it was a big victory, but you don't know the result until the spoilt papers are decided and I was dithering. It was my first time as agent. The Labour agent had a quiet word in my ear and said 'You've got this, let it go'. I did and we had.
Tl:Dr. By a margin of 73-11 voters want an independent inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the selection of the previous MP. That's doesn't suggest much hope of a Tory hold tbh.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.
Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.
Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
It is completely different. Erdogan is a bully and a thug but he doesn’t want to expand Turkey into Syria.
Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
I guess if we followed Putin's logic we ought to invade France to "take back" land. Not sure we really want Calais though.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
I don't think there is a solution other than a total Ukrainian victory. Anything else just leads to a resumption of hostilities at some point int he future when Russia tries to conquer more territory.
It might be that the best route to a Ukrainian victory is via a de facto ceasefire, during which the Ukrainian armed forces can be supplied with more NATO equipment and trained to use it, so that they can win round 3, but that's different from the delusion that there is a durable peace settlement with Russia that involves ceding territory. That only feeds Russian expansionist ambitions.
I can't see how there can be a total Ukrainian victory against a much larger power. That could only happen with the fall of Putin, which doesn't seem to be on the cards, at least not for some considerable length of time.
If Ukraine has the military industry of the West behind it then which side has the greater power?
Of course Ukraine can win.
Then why hasn't it already done so? What will change over the next 1-12 weeks that will all of a sudden make the West do X? And what is X?
As discussed it's not clear that Ukraine does have the full backing of the West's military industry. It's mostly been provided with surplus and/or obsolete kit. It will take time to transition the Ukraine armed forces from Soviet era equipment to NATO standard. So you would expect the balance of forces to change as Ukraine makes that transition, and the large Russian stocks of equipment are eroded.
The West will provide that support if it makes what I think is the correct judgement that it's in our interests for Ukraine to win, and win quickly, and that it is possible.
Maybe the West will not make that judgement. Nothing is certain. I think the world will be a safer place if we do.
So why do you think it hasn't already done so?
The idea of taking on Russia is a fantastical thing that everyone hoped they would never have to do, and so they are attempting to find any and every alternative. Normalcy bias and fear.
We're in a different world after February 24th (but some people are still nostalgic for the time before).
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
ALT + 0252 on the nümeric keypad. (220 for the capital).
That's PC, I think ? I rarely use them, but I now have Erdogan to thank for the knowledge that it's 'alt-u' followed by the vowel to be umlauted. Good on him.
I often find myself agreeing with Birbalsingh, although I shouldn't as she is the figurehead for Tory disciplinarianism in a post corporal punishment era. That said it seems to work, and I am old enough to remember being told that a good honest beating by masters at school was character building.
Discipline at Eton must have been pretty slack. Imagine if Johnson was at Michaela, he'd never be out of detention.
That's the problem in a nutshell, both in the way the government use her and, sadly, how she sounds off on discipline. It's tough no-nonsense discipline for the plebs (and don't go getting silly ideas about Oxbridge), and louche indulgence for the toffs. That may not be her view of the world but it is very much the Tory disciplinarian view of the world.
If you think there is no discipline at private schools, I suggest you never went to boarding school!
Birbalsingh also has an excellent record of getting her pupils into Oxbridge and the Russell Group. She just said that was not the only route to social mobility eg if your parents were unemployed and you get a job
I went to boarding school as it happens. Enjoyed it very much.
My beef isn't particularly with Birbalsingh (though she could do with a PR adviser) but with the underlying selective authoritarianism seen on the right across many walks of life which advocates the strictest possible sanctions to any wrongdoing when it affects "them", but tends to take a rather more libertarian approach to life when it affects "us".
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.
Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.
Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
It is completely different. Erdogan is a bully and a thug but he doesn’t want to expand Turkey into Syria.
Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
I guess if we followed Putin's logic we ought to invade France to "take back" land. Not sure we really want Calais though.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
I think part of the current plan is to create zones several miles into Northern Syria controlled by Turkey, and send Syrian refugees to be housed in settlements there, simultaneously expanding the Turkish zone of influence there. The Russians haven't given him the OK for this yet, though, apparently, and they're discussing it.
A Molotov-Ribbentrop pact de nos jours in the offing.
Q&A sessions where the moderator insists on taking a batch of questions before answering, rather than taking one question at a time. Invariably, the person tasked with answering has forgotten at least one of the questions after they've answered the first, and the question needs to be repeated.
So instead of streamlining the process, it takes longer.
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Please substantiate. You cannot fling accusations like that without evidence.
In my experience Labour and Tory campaigners are each others opponents but they both loathe LD campaigns because they are totally ruthless and will exploit any local issue for their own ends.
I well remember one general election campaign count in 2005 where the rather pompous LD agent told the Tory and Labour campaign heads 'there are lessons for the Tories and Labour in this'. To which the Tory and Labour campaigners replied in unison 'there are also lessons for the LDs in this in how to avoid coming third!!'
Being ruthless and campaigning on local issues is not the same as being untrustworthy.
You wear the most enormous blinkers if you think the Tories always run honest campaigns.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
ALT + 0252 on the nümeric keypad. (220 for the capital).
That's PC, I think ? I rarely use them, but I now have Erdogan to thank for the knowledge that it's 'alt-u' followed by the vowel to be umlauted. Good on him.
Or on my phone you can press and hold down the u button and it will give all sorts of options. ū ü ù û ú and 7
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Your psephoenterology posts are excellent Woolie. Your posts on yesterdays poll where you said the last three wilts are totally consistent on saying 6% lead 39-33 was spot on.
Nb the one Wakefield poll did suggest mere tiny amount of Tory to Labour switchers, Lab win just stay at home Tories, 1987-1992 style by election. Fools gold.
Thank you! The nuances of polling and the data fascinate me, and looking for oddities that may lead into a wider surprise or trend. It also tebds to kerp me focussed and less, um, tub thumpy! Mind you, a good rant now and again is cathartic.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
I don't think there is a solution other than a total Ukrainian victory. Anything else just leads to a resumption of hostilities at some point int he future when Russia tries to conquer more territory.
It might be that the best route to a Ukrainian victory is via a de facto ceasefire, during which the Ukrainian armed forces can be supplied with more NATO equipment and trained to use it, so that they can win round 3, but that's different from the delusion that there is a durable peace settlement with Russia that involves ceding territory. That only feeds Russian expansionist ambitions.
I can't see how there can be a total Ukrainian victory against a much larger power. That could only happen with the fall of Putin, which doesn't seem to be on the cards, at least not for some considerable length of time.
If Ukraine has the military industry of the West behind it then which side has the greater power?
Of course Ukraine can win.
Then why hasn't it already done so? What will change over the next 1-12 weeks that will all of a sudden make the West do X? And what is X?
As discussed it's not clear that Ukraine does have the full backing of the West's military industry. It's mostly been provided with surplus and/or obsolete kit. It will take time to transition the Ukraine armed forces from Soviet era equipment to NATO standard. So you would expect the balance of forces to change as Ukraine makes that transition, and the large Russian stocks of equipment are eroded.
The West will provide that support if it makes what I think is the correct judgement that it's in our interests for Ukraine to win, and win quickly, and that it is possible.
Maybe the West will not make that judgement. Nothing is certain. I think the world will be a safer place if we do.
So why do you think it hasn't already done so?
They have given quite a lot already, but I suspect they would have wanted to give too much too soon in case Ukraine wasn't able to use it then it fell into Putin's hands.
Defensive equipment to help them absorb and repel the initial shock was most important. As time goes on, different types of weaponry and logistics will surely be needed.
So do you think we will see a decisive increase in the West's aid to Ukraine in the terms you (and @LostPassword ) describe?
I certainly hope so. I have confidence that Boris and Truss will be pushing for it, so that's good at least. I have absolutely no confidence in Macron and Scholz and we should discount them entirely. Eastern Europe are very keen to help which is important logistically.
The question is Biden. Had Trump been in power, then no chance. Had Reagan been in power, then definitely. But Biden, I am not certain about Biden he is the variable, I think he will be happy to do a decisive increase since he's got Ukraine and the UK and Eastern Europe pushing for it too.
I can't see why Biden wouldn't be satisfied with the status quo. Grinding long haul war with ground given and taken, wearing down the Russian resources. I read an article (didn't we all) that said Russia wanted to secure energy supplies and would satisfy itself once achieved.
Get the war won quickly and you can more easily repair the economic damage - get wheat exports from Ukraine restarted for example.
Little chance of the Democrats holding the White House in 24 if the war isn't won and the economy isn't recovering.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.
Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.
Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
It is completely different. Erdogan is a bully and a thug but he doesn’t want to expand Turkey into Syria.
Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Isn't Erdogan facing near certain defeat next year and replacement by a Kemalist liberal? You were there not so long ago I believe.
The opposition is badly divided, so he could sneak through. But medium tern his political prognosis is not great
Polls suggest he would likely lose in a second round to the leading CHP candidates.
Q&A sessions where the moderator insists on taking a batch of questions before answering, rather than taking one question at a time. Invariably, the person tasked with answering has forgotten at least one of the questions after they've answered the first, and the question needs to be repeated.
So instead of streamlining the process, it takes longer.
Generally done to allow the person being questioned to choose which question to answer.
I noticed Sophie Raworth asked two questions in one to SKS a few weeks ago. Inevitably he chose the easy one to answer.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
I don't think there is a solution other than a total Ukrainian victory. Anything else just leads to a resumption of hostilities at some point int he future when Russia tries to conquer more territory.
It might be that the best route to a Ukrainian victory is via a de facto ceasefire, during which the Ukrainian armed forces can be supplied with more NATO equipment and trained to use it, so that they can win round 3, but that's different from the delusion that there is a durable peace settlement with Russia that involves ceding territory. That only feeds Russian expansionist ambitions.
I can't see how there can be a total Ukrainian victory against a much larger power. That could only happen with the fall of Putin, which doesn't seem to be on the cards, at least not for some considerable length of time.
If Ukraine has the military industry of the West behind it then which side has the greater power?
Of course Ukraine can win.
Then why hasn't it already done so? What will change over the next 1-12 weeks that will all of a sudden make the West do X? And what is X?
As discussed it's not clear that Ukraine does have the full backing of the West's military industry. It's mostly been provided with surplus and/or obsolete kit. It will take time to transition the Ukraine armed forces from Soviet era equipment to NATO standard. So you would expect the balance of forces to change as Ukraine makes that transition, and the large Russian stocks of equipment are eroded.
The West will provide that support if it makes what I think is the correct judgement that it's in our interests for Ukraine to win, and win quickly, and that it is possible.
Maybe the West will not make that judgement. Nothing is certain. I think the world will be a safer place if we do.
So why do you think it hasn't already done so?
They have given quite a lot already, but I suspect they would have wanted to give too much too soon in case Ukraine wasn't able to use it then it fell into Putin's hands.
Defensive equipment to help them absorb and repel the initial shock was most important. As time goes on, different types of weaponry and logistics will surely be needed.
So do you think we will see a decisive increase in the West's aid to Ukraine in the terms you (and @LostPassword ) describe?
I certainly hope so. I have confidence that Boris and Truss will be pushing for it, so that's good at least. I have absolutely no confidence in Macron and Scholz and we should discount them entirely. Eastern Europe are very keen to help which is important logistically.
The question is Biden. Had Trump been in power, then no chance. Had Reagan been in power, then definitely. But Biden, I am not certain about Biden he is the variable, I think he will be happy to do a decisive increase since he's got Ukraine and the UK and Eastern Europe pushing for it too.
I can't see why Biden wouldn't be satisfied with the status quo. Grinding long haul war with ground given and taken, wearing down the Russian resources. I read an article (didn't we all) that said Russia wanted to secure energy supplies and would satisfy itself once achieved.
Get the war won quickly and you can more easily repair the economic damage - get wheat exports from Ukraine restarted for example.
Little chance of the Democrats holding the White House in 24 if the war isn't won and the economy isn't recovering.
No chance of the war won before this November for the midterms but by November 24? Certainly possible.
If by November 2024 the war is won, Putin is gone and most importantly for Americans "gas" prices are back down then a Biden second term might actually be a possibility and I never thought I'd say that.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
ALT + 0252 on the nümeric keypad. (220 for the capital).
That's PC, I think ? I rarely use them, but I now have Erdogan to thank for the knowledge that it's 'alt-u' followed by the vowel to be umlauted. Good on him.
But how do you do the g with a squiggle in Erdoğan?
Tl:Dr. By a margin of 73-11 voters want an independent inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the selection of the previous MP. That's doesn't suggest much hope of a Tory hold tbh.
Yes, any small swing (sub 10%) would be awful for Labour in the circumstances. I mean they foisted a nonce on Wakefield without due dilligence. Im calling 30% as the Tory marker 'against this backdrop' as 'parts of red wall up for grabs still'
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
ALT + 0252 on the nümeric keypad. (220 for the capital).
That's PC, I think ? I rarely use them, but I now have Erdogan to thank for the knowledge that it's 'alt-u' followed by the vowel to be umlauted. Good on him.
But how do you do the g with a squiggle in Erdoğan?
I often find myself agreeing with Birbalsingh, although I shouldn't as she is the figurehead for Tory disciplinarianism in a post corporal punishment era. That said it seems to work, and I am old enough to remember being told that a good honest beating by masters at school was character building.
Discipline at Eton must have been pretty slack. Imagine if Johnson was at Michaela, he'd never be out of detention.
That's the problem in a nutshell, both in the way the government use her and, sadly, how she sounds off on discipline. It's tough no-nonsense discipline for the plebs (and don't go getting silly ideas about Oxbridge), and louche indulgence for the toffs. That may not be her view of the world but it is very much the Tory disciplinarian view of the world.
If you think there is no discipline at private schools, I suggest you never went to boarding school!
Birbalsingh also has an excellent record of getting her pupils into Oxbridge and the Russell Group. She just said that was not the only route to social mobility eg if your parents were unemployed and you get a job
I went to boarding school as it happens. Enjoyed it very much.
My beef isn't particularly with Birbalsingh (though she could do with a PR adviser) but with the underlying selective authoritarianism seen on the right across many walks of life which advocates the strictest possible sanctions to any wrongdoing when it affects "them", but tends to take a rather more libertarian approach to life when it affects "us".
Yep. Strict sanctions on benefits claiments even a few minutes late, but hand waving indulgence of sweetheart contracts for mates or Downing St parties.
I often find myself agreeing with Birbalsingh, although I shouldn't as she is the figurehead for Tory disciplinarianism in a post corporal punishment era. That said it seems to work, and I am old enough to remember being told that a good honest beating by masters at school was character building.
Discipline at Eton must have been pretty slack. Imagine if Johnson was at Michaela, he'd never be out of detention.
That's the problem in a nutshell, both in the way the government use her and, sadly, how she sounds off on discipline. It's tough no-nonsense discipline for the plebs (and don't go getting silly ideas about Oxbridge), and louche indulgence for the toffs. That may not be her view of the world but it is very much the Tory disciplinarian view of the world.
If you think there is no discipline at private schools, I suggest you never went to boarding school!
Birbalsingh also has an excellent record of getting her pupils into Oxbridge and the Russell Group. She just said that was not the only route to social mobility eg if your parents were unemployed and you get a job
I went to boarding school as it happens. Enjoyed it very much.
My beef isn't particularly with Birbalsingh (though she could do with a PR adviser) but with the underlying selective authoritarianism seen on the right across many walks of life which advocates the strictest possible sanctions to any wrongdoing when it affects "them", but tends to take a rather more libertarian approach to life when it affects "us".
That's just classic hypocrisy - the rules are for thee, not me.
In a way, the middle class parents sending their children to the Free School near me were doing something similar with their complaints that Daisy wasn't allowed to wear trainers. The school applied the uniform rules, uniformly. In the view of some of the parents, Daisy should have been an exception, since she was not likely to be into postcode wars.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
Tiverton thoughts. Impact in national picture - cheesy photo op with Davey and his hammer breaking a wall of blue cardboard boxes whilst local LDs cheer if LDs win gives some wind to their sails and we see 16% in some polls? Fall short and its all SKS gains and LDs struggle to get coverage/lose deposit in Wakefield/can't win for porn and drift down towards 10%? Colourful descriptors aside a big one for their prospects given how hard it is to get exposure with very small taxi firm/disappointing unicycle parade numbers of MPs
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
I don't think there is a solution other than a total Ukrainian victory. Anything else just leads to a resumption of hostilities at some point int he future when Russia tries to conquer more territory.
It might be that the best route to a Ukrainian victory is via a de facto ceasefire, during which the Ukrainian armed forces can be supplied with more NATO equipment and trained to use it, so that they can win round 3, but that's different from the delusion that there is a durable peace settlement with Russia that involves ceding territory. That only feeds Russian expansionist ambitions.
I can't see how there can be a total Ukrainian victory against a much larger power. That could only happen with the fall of Putin, which doesn't seem to be on the cards, at least not for some considerable length of time.
If Ukraine has the military industry of the West behind it then which side has the greater power?
Of course Ukraine can win.
Then why hasn't it already done so? What will change over the next 1-12 weeks that will all of a sudden make the West do X? And what is X?
As discussed it's not clear that Ukraine does have the full backing of the West's military industry. It's mostly been provided with surplus and/or obsolete kit. It will take time to transition the Ukraine armed forces from Soviet era equipment to NATO standard. So you would expect the balance of forces to change as Ukraine makes that transition, and the large Russian stocks of equipment are eroded.
The West will provide that support if it makes what I think is the correct judgement that it's in our interests for Ukraine to win, and win quickly, and that it is possible.
Maybe the West will not make that judgement. Nothing is certain. I think the world will be a safer place if we do.
So why do you think it hasn't already done so?
They have given quite a lot already, but I suspect they would have wanted to give too much too soon in case Ukraine wasn't able to use it then it fell into Putin's hands.
Defensive equipment to help them absorb and repel the initial shock was most important. As time goes on, different types of weaponry and logistics will surely be needed.
So do you think we will see a decisive increase in the West's aid to Ukraine in the terms you (and @LostPassword ) describe?
I certainly hope so. I have confidence that Boris and Truss will be pushing for it, so that's good at least. I have absolutely no confidence in Macron and Scholz and we should discount them entirely. Eastern Europe are very keen to help which is important logistically.
The question is Biden. Had Trump been in power, then no chance. Had Reagan been in power, then definitely. But Biden, I am not certain about Biden he is the variable, I think he will be happy to do a decisive increase since he's got Ukraine and the UK and Eastern Europe pushing for it too.
I can't see why Biden wouldn't be satisfied with the status quo. Grinding long haul war with ground given and taken, wearing down the Russian resources. I read an article (didn't we all) that said Russia wanted to secure energy supplies and would satisfy itself once achieved.
Get the war won quickly and you can more easily repair the economic damage - get wheat exports from Ukraine restarted for example.
Little chance of the Democrats holding the White House in 24 if the war isn't won and the economy isn't recovering.
I would suspect that getting the exports working again might take months or even years. Modern ports are complicated with tons of machinery. So you have to repair all of that, clear the mines. Then you have the delivery infrastructure to get the grain to the ports....
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah".
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
Just keep the u pressed down and the various accent options come up isn't it?
û ü ù ú ū
Blimey, two things I've learned today.
Now back to my 한글 studies.
I just get a line of uuuuuuuuuuuus when I do that. And I can't get either of the ALT functions to work either. On word I can insert these symbols but not on here.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
He’s probably in fear of a ruinous libel suit. An amazingly stupid thing to allege, unless he has cast iron proof
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah".
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
And it still has a Tory in Duffield, just waiting to cross the floor into the loving arms of a new leader
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
Just keep the u pressed down and the various accent options come up isn't it?
û ü ù ú ū
Blimey, two things I've learned today.
Now back to my 한글 studies.
I just get a line of uuuuuuuuuuuus when I do that. And I can't get either of the ALT functions to work either. On word I can insert these symbols but not on here.
File under too hard, I'm afraid.
There's always Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V as a last resort.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
The only people forcing Ukraine to give up territory is because of facts on the ground. Pretending that those facts don't exist is bizarre and untypical of PB.
People comment on the Ukraine war as though it has some predestined end whereby the forces of good overcome the bad guys.
The world is full of countries which have changed borders as a result of military engagements. Why whisper it but some have involved Great Britain if you can believe that.
The question now is whether Russia is strong enough to do the same. We shall see. But one thing we don't seem to be doing is going to war against Russia to prevent it happening.
I'm not pretending the facts on the ground don't exist. If you want to make that sort of argument, then I'd say they you're saying Ukraine has already been defeated. Something you seem to have been saying since February 24th. ;(
The point is fuck-all to do with 'changed borders'. It is to do with the fact that the borders changed in 2014, and Russia just invaded again. Giving Russia territory now is not a guarantee of a peace for even a few years - as Dura_Ace admits.
We should have faced up to Russia in 2014. Or over Syria. We did not, and it emboldened Putin. If we force Ukraine to give in now, then he will be further emboldened.
The more Russia is weakened now, the better the future of the world in the medium and long term.
I didn't say Ukraine has already been defeated; I said that people such as yourself were making huge leaps of logic based upon 30-second youtube clips.
On Topic. 😂 well done hard left union Barons helping to save Big Dog!
All part of the cunning plan - keep Big Dog in office, making it easier for Labour to win in 2024!
One of the two rail Unions (ASLEF) has reached a settlement (5% iirc) in Scotland. RMT were more nakedly political - not sure that that has changed.
There will be an interesting game of industrial dispute chess coming up.
I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years! I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
I'm planning on doing Battersea Power Station and Liverpool Street to Abbey Wood this evening. Did Liverpool Street to Paddington this morning.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
He’s probably in fear of a ruinous libel suit. An amazingly stupid thing to allege, unless he has cast iron proof
Has he apologised to NZ yet?
The English bowlers are doing that for him. NZ 29 without loss after some sorry bowling.
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Please substantiate. You cannot fling accusations like that without evidence.
In my experience Labour and Tory campaigners are each others opponents but they both loathe LD campaigns because they are totally ruthless and will exploit any local issue for their own ends.
I well remember one general election campaign count in 2005 where the rather pompous LD agent told the Tory and Labour campaign heads 'there are lessons for the Tories and Labour in this'. To which the Tory and Labour campaigners replied in unison 'there are also lessons for the LDs in this in how to avoid coming third!!'
Being ruthless and campaigning on local issues is not the same as being untrustworthy.
You wear the most enormous blinkers if you think the Tories always run honest campaigns.
Lib Dem campaigns are as straight as their graphs .
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.
Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.
Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
It is completely different. Erdogan is a bully and a thug but he doesn’t want to expand Turkey into Syria.
Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
I guess if we followed Putin's logic we ought to invade France to "take back" land. Not sure we really want Calais though.
The British army are already camped out there and ready to take the place over on behalf of Her Majesty, they just need to be formally inducted into the military and offered citizenship in exchange for their service to the empire.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
The only people forcing Ukraine to give up territory is because of facts on the ground. Pretending that those facts don't exist is bizarre and untypical of PB.
People comment on the Ukraine war as though it has some predestined end whereby the forces of good overcome the bad guys.
The world is full of countries which have changed borders as a result of military engagements. Why whisper it but some have involved Great Britain if you can believe that.
The question now is whether Russia is strong enough to do the same. We shall see. But one thing we don't seem to be doing is going to war against Russia to prevent it happening.
I'm not pretending the facts on the ground don't exist. If you want to make that sort of argument, then I'd say they you're saying Ukraine has already been defeated. Something you seem to have been saying since February 24th. ;(
The point is fuck-all to do with 'changed borders'. It is to do with the fact that the borders changed in 2014, and Russia just invaded again. Giving Russia territory now is not a guarantee of a peace for even a few years - as Dura_Ace admits.
We should have faced up to Russia in 2014. Or over Syria. We did not, and it emboldened Putin. If we force Ukraine to give in now, then he will be further emboldened.
The more Russia is weakened now, the better the future of the world in the medium and long term.
I didn't say Ukraine has already been defeated; I said that people such as yourself were making huge leaps of logic based upon 30-second youtube clips.
LOL. No. Can you give me an example of a 'huge leap of logic' I've made on this topic?
And I'd hope it's fairly clear that my information sources are much wider than just 30-second YouTube clips. Some are 45 seconds long ...
Tiverton thoughts. Impact in national picture - cheesy photo op with Davey and his hammer breaking a wall of blue cardboard boxes whilst local LDs cheer if LDs win gives some wind to their sails and we see 16% in some polls? Fall short and its all SKS gains and LDs struggle to get coverage/lose deposit in Wakefield/can't win for porn and drift down towards 10%? Colourful descriptors aside a big one for their prospects given how hard it is to get exposure with very small taxi firm/disappointing unicycle parade numbers of MPs
The next big story will be Starmer and Rayner's defenestration by Durham Constabulary. I am assuming Priti is, as we speak, working as hard as one of TSE's Dockside Ladies, for this story to be out in public before the by-elections.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
When, previous to the invasion, we were discussing Imperialism, it was interesting to see who was uncomfortable with the idea that modern Russia and China are explicitly imperialist and following a long history of imperialism in both countries.
I would be very interested in hearing what those determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian would make of a situation whereby an independent Scotland left NATO and entered into a close economic and security relationship with the Russian federation, including funding of scientific research, military training and cooperation, and intervention in politics at the highest level. Even more so if their influence had been won by supporting a series of protests that unseated an elected leader who had been in favour of close alignment with RUK. What would be a valid response to that? Would we wish them well and move on?
On Topic. 😂 well done hard left union Barons helping to save Big Dog!
All part of the cunning plan - keep Big Dog in office, making it easier for Labour to win in 2024!
One of the two rail Unions (ASLEF) has reached a settlement (5% iirc) in Scotland. RMT were more nakedly political - not sure that that has changed.
There will be an interesting game of industrial dispute chess coming up.
I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years! I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
Yes do it. They are both really top lines and quite different in their scenery. Summer is excellent time to go, will be the best weather and in Summer the daylight in Northern Scotland is somewhat longer than in London 👍
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Please substantiate. You cannot fling accusations like that without evidence.
In my experience Labour and Tory campaigners are each others opponents but they both loathe LD campaigns because they are totally ruthless and will exploit any local issue for their own ends.
I well remember one general election campaign count in 2005 where the rather pompous LD agent told the Tory and Labour campaign heads 'there are lessons for the Tories and Labour in this'. To which the Tory and Labour campaigners replied in unison 'there are also lessons for the LDs in this in how to avoid coming third!!'
Being ruthless and campaigning on local issues is not the same as being untrustworthy.
You wear the most enormous blinkers if you think the Tories always run honest campaigns.
Lib Dem campaigns are as straight as their graphs .
The latest LD leaflet here claims it is very tight. It's just about possible that may actually be true!
The trouble is the LD leaflets will claim that regardless to ensure there is no complacency. So it might be it might not. It provides no useful information.
Speaking of drones, I haven't seen much footage of either I. Bayraktar strikes (From the Ukr side) or ii. Downed bayraktars (From the Russian side)
Are they till in theatre ?
Russia seems to have stepped up it's anti-drone game (And be using drones of their own) since the absolute monstering they took northwest of Киї(e)в in the early days.
They started the SMO with 18 TB2 (12 Air Force + 6 Navy) and have had 8 destroyed that we know about so it's fair to say the TB2 fleet has had a severe monstering and now they use them sparingly.
They lost one recently that seemed to have been manufactured in March, so the best guess is that they lost all they started with, received another batch and used those (including well-publicised strikes on Snake Island and on targets in Russia) until they were all shot down again.
On Topic. 😂 well done hard left union Barons helping to save Big Dog!
All part of the cunning plan - keep Big Dog in office, making it easier for Labour to win in 2024!
One of the two rail Unions (ASLEF) has reached a settlement (5% iirc) in Scotland. RMT were more nakedly political - not sure that that has changed.
There will be an interesting game of industrial dispute chess coming up.
I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years! I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
Yes do it. They are both really top lines and quite different in their scenery. Summer is excellent time to go, will be the best weather and in Summer the daylight in Northern Scotland is somewhat longer than in London 👍
Google midges imo. Nadine says other search engines are available for downstreaming.
The latest LD leaflet here claims it is very tight. It's just about possible that may actually be true!
The trouble is the LD leaflets will claim that regardless to ensure there is no complacency. So it might be it might not. It provides no useful information.
Might be a bit double-edged in a constituency like this where there is a very solid Tory vote to motivate though. Mind you we/they got 18k votes the first time it was contested - I'd be amazed if that wasn't enough to win on June 23rd.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah".
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
Yes, in 2017 I backed Labour at 25/1 in Canterbury, £20. Prompted by seeing Emily Thornberry on local news walking down the High Street being very warmly greeted. One of my few real triumphs (along with Ipswich, which if I recall had Labour as a 10/1 chance).
Tiverton thoughts. Impact in national picture - cheesy photo op with Davey and his hammer breaking a wall of blue cardboard boxes whilst local LDs cheer if LDs win gives some wind to their sails and we see 16% in some polls? Fall short and its all SKS gains and LDs struggle to get coverage/lose deposit in Wakefield/can't win for porn and drift down towards 10%? Colourful descriptors aside a big one for their prospects given how hard it is to get exposure with very small taxi firm/disappointing unicycle parade numbers of MPs
The next big story will be Starmer and Rayner's defenestration by Durham Constabulary. I am assuming Priti is, as we speak, working as hard as one of TSE's Dockside Ladies, for this story to be out in public before the by-elections.
You have this conspiracy theory, but the questionnaires have a 28 day response time and apparently a witness is away on holiday
The decision will not be announced before the by elections if the police are following the same procedure as the Met
On Topic. 😂 well done hard left union Barons helping to save Big Dog!
All part of the cunning plan - keep Big Dog in office, making it easier for Labour to win in 2024!
One of the two rail Unions (ASLEF) has reached a settlement (5% iirc) in Scotland. RMT were more nakedly political - not sure that that has changed.
There will be an interesting game of industrial dispute chess coming up.
I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years! I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
Yes do it. They are both really top lines and quite different in their scenery. Summer is excellent time to go, will be the best weather and in Summer the daylight in Northern Scotland is somewhat longer than in London 👍
Midges though: does depend on the location and actual weather on the day. Not an issue in the train, though, normally!
On Topic. 😂 well done hard left union Barons helping to save Big Dog!
All part of the cunning plan - keep Big Dog in office, making it easier for Labour to win in 2024!
One of the two rail Unions (ASLEF) has reached a settlement (5% iirc) in Scotland. RMT were more nakedly political - not sure that that has changed.
There will be an interesting game of industrial dispute chess coming up.
I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years! I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
BUT REMEMBER TO RESERVE SEATS. Smallish trains, still, AFAIK, and sometimes a tour party block books.
Speaking of drones, I haven't seen much footage of either I. Bayraktar strikes (From the Ukr side) or ii. Downed bayraktars (From the Russian side)
Are they till in theatre ?
Russia seems to have stepped up it's anti-drone game (And be using drones of their own) since the absolute monstering they took northwest of Киї(e)в in the early days.
They started the SMO with 18 TB2 (12 Air Force + 6 Navy) and have had 8 destroyed that we know about so it's fair to say the TB2 fleet has had a severe monstering and now they use them sparingly.
They lost one recently that seemed to have been manufactured in March, so the best guess is that they lost all they started with, received another batch and used those (including well-publicised strikes on Snake Island and on targets in Russia) until they were all shot down again.
More are on the way.
Or alternatively the 'right' targets for them are sparse at the moment, and they're mostly saving them (and the ground stations/operators) for an offensive. Or the Russians have found a way of jamming/interfering/EW with them, so they're not flying them. Or they're choosing not to share the operations they're flying with them.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah".
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
Yes, in 2017 I backed Labour at 25/1 in Canterbury, £20. Prompted by seeing Emily Thornberry on local news walking down the High Street being very warmly greeted. One of my few real triumphs (along with Ipswich, which if I recall had Labour as a 10/1 chance).
Greens to unseat Thangums Debennairre. If you are not on early don’t say I didn’t tell you.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah".
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
Yes, in 2017 I backed Labour at 25/1 in Canterbury, £20. Prompted by seeing Emily Thornberry on local news walking down the High Street being very warmly greeted. One of my few real triumphs (along with Ipswich, which if I recall had Labour as a 10/1 chance).
Greens to unseat Thangums Debennairre. If you are not on early don’t say I didn’t tell you.
Zero chance. Thangam has a majority of over 28,000, got 62.3% last time. Dream on.
Doubt it Mike: reading the Lib Dem activist reports it will barely make a difference. If it did it would also affect the Conservatives as well, and in any case is only just before the by election date when the die has been cast. Most of their West country activists appear to travel by car. The local experience up here was that North Shropshire was managed primarily by activists travelling by car. In any case reading the runes it seems that it would take a huge change of fortune to stop a Con rout.
Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.
Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah".
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
Yes, in 2017 I backed Labour at 25/1 in Canterbury, £20. Prompted by seeing Emily Thornberry on local news walking down the High Street being very warmly greeted. One of my few real triumphs (along with Ipswich, which if I recall had Labour as a 10/1 chance).
Greens to unseat Thangums Debennairre. If you are not on early don’t say I didn’t tell you.
Zero chance. Thangam has a majority of over 28,000, got 62.3% last time. Dream on.
but since last time the trend has been green friend.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah".
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
Yes, in 2017 I backed Labour at 25/1 in Canterbury, £20. Prompted by seeing Emily Thornberry on local news walking down the High Street being very warmly greeted. One of my few real triumphs (along with Ipswich, which if I recall had Labour as a 10/1 chance).
Greens to unseat Thangums Debennairre. If you are not on early don’t say I didn’t tell you.
Zero chance. Thangam has a majority of over 28,000, got 62.3% last time. Dream on.
Thangam Debbonaire is still the best name in British politics.
Also worth remembering, this is a very safe Tory seat. The Party of "Bollocks to Brexit" is not a natural home for many of the voters here; more likely to be the biggest swing to the Can't Be Arsed Party as people stay home rather than vote LibDem to express their disapproval.
Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.
Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
Yes, especially with Opunium now weighting to compensate mid term apathy. When it starts to move it should indicate actual VI transfer, although always have to allow for a single poll to just be an outlier. Its the second mover you look for.
Speaking of drones, I haven't seen much footage of either I. Bayraktar strikes (From the Ukr side) or ii. Downed bayraktars (From the Russian side)
Are they till in theatre ?
Russia seems to have stepped up it's anti-drone game (And be using drones of their own) since the absolute monstering they took northwest of Киї(e)в in the early days.
They started the SMO with 18 TB2 (12 Air Force + 6 Navy) and have had 8 destroyed that we know about so it's fair to say the TB2 fleet has had a severe monstering and now they use them sparingly.
They lost one recently that seemed to have been manufactured in March, so the best guess is that they lost all they started with, received another batch and used those (including well-publicised strikes on Snake Island and on targets in Russia) until they were all shot down again.
More are on the way.
Or alternatively the 'right' targets for them are sparse at the moment, and they're mostly saving them (and the ground stations/operators) for an offensive. Or the Russians have found a way of jamming/interfering/EW with them, so they're not flying them. Or they're choosing not to share the operations they're flying with them.
Could be a combination of many reasons.
Could be lots of things, yes, which is why I described my best guess as a best guess.
Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.
Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
Yes, especially with Opunium now weighting to compensate mid term apathy. When it starts to move it should indicate actual VI transfer, although always have to allow for a single poll to just be an outlier. Its the second mover you look for.
That’s right, one on its own could be wrong, look for trends. 🙂
I think the first time we will be confident of actual movement, swing back to Tories or a move other way, will be in the changing of Opiniom over about 3 - 2 or 1 % leads as average over 3 or 4 or 5% leads as average over three.
Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.
Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
Yes, especially with Opunium now weighting to compensate mid term apathy. When it starts to move it should indicate actual VI transfer, although always have to allow for a single poll to just be an outlier. Its the second mover you look for.
That’s right, one on its own could be wrong, look for trends. 🙂
I think the first time we will be confident of actual movement, swing back to Tories or a move other way, will be in the changing of Opiniom over about 3 - 2 or 1 % leads as average over 3 or 4 or 5% leads as average over three.
Is it time for swingback or more drift? Are the Tories bouncing around the basement or on a secret trapdoor? Will an FPN sink Labour? Questions, questions. However now off to spend the afternoon with Pa Woolie and meine schwester. Ta ta all.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Isn't Erdogan facing near certain defeat next year and replacement by a Kemalist liberal? You were there not so long ago I believe.
The opposition is badly divided, so he could sneak through. But medium tern his political prognosis is not great
Polls suggest he would likely lose in a second round to the leading CHP candidates.
I think he would have to. The Army still sees itself as playing a strong, political role. And despite Erdogan's purging, there'd be a coup pdq. The last one only narrowly failed. A combination of popular pressure, and Erdogan himself mysteriously not being where he was scheduled to be. With popular pressure behind removing him, he'd be a goner. In more than one sense.
Also worth remembering, this is a very safe Tory seat. The Party of "Bollocks to Brexit" is not a natural home for many of the voters here; more likely to be the biggest swing to the Can't Be Arsed Party as people stay home rather than vote LibDem to express their disapproval.
This is what I think, but there are quite a few Tories who think their only hope at the next GE is to get Boris out ASAP and will vote in the by-election accordingly.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah".
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
Yes, in 2017 I backed Labour at 25/1 in Canterbury, £20. Prompted by seeing Emily Thornberry on local news walking down the High Street being very warmly greeted. One of my few real triumphs (along with Ipswich, which if I recall had Labour as a 10/1 chance).
Greens to unseat Thangums Debennairre. If you are not on early don’t say I didn’t tell you.
Zero chance. Thangam has a majority of over 28,000, got 62.3% last time. Dream on.
but since last time the trend has been green friend.
Love your complacency 🙂
Remarkable to think this was Tory till 1997. And LD till 2015.
Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.
Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
Yes, especially with Opunium now weighting to compensate mid term apathy. When it starts to move it should indicate actual VI transfer, although always have to allow for a single poll to just be an outlier. Its the second mover you look for.
That’s right, one on its own could be wrong, look for trends. 🙂
I think the first time we will be confident of actual movement, swing back to Tories or a move other way, will be in the changing of Opiniom over about 3 - 2 or 1 % leads as average over 3 or 4 or 5% leads as average over three.
Is it time for swingback or more drift? Are the Tories bouncing around the basement or on a secret trapdoor? Will an FPN sink Labour? Questions, questions. However now off to spend the afternoon with Pa Woolie and meine schwester. Ta ta all.
Yes lots of questions for the PB psephoenterologists
First quarter of June polls have been poor for Labour - a government as lost and in as much disarray and opponent split as much as this and Labour lead going nowhere in polls so I’ve revised my Tory seat prediction up to 270 and that’s mainly cropped thanks to tactical votes, thinking today the PV could be close between Labour and Tory with some swingback.
It’s looking like a hung Parliament and probably the most well hung ever 280 versus 270. That should give Tories a lot of last minute votes in the campaign being the only ones who can promise their vote will avoid that sort of well hung madness.
Enjoy the weather, I’m going out drinking in the sun now. 🙋♀️
Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.
Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
Latest EMA shows Labour holding a 6% lead and 13 seats short of an overall majority on new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus. NB LDs with only 13 seats looks low to me.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Isn't Erdogan facing near certain defeat next year and replacement by a Kemalist liberal? You were there not so long ago I believe.
The opposition is badly divided, so he could sneak through. But medium tern his political prognosis is not great
Polls suggest he would likely lose in a second round to the leading CHP candidates.
I think he would have to. The Army still sees itself as playing a strong, political role. And despite Erdogan's purging, there'd be a coup pdq. The last one only narrowly failed. A combination of popular pressure, and Erdogan himself mysteriously not being where he was scheduled to be. With popular pressure behind removing him, he'd be a goner. In more than one sense.
The problem is, the neo-Ottomanism is now embraced by the CHP opposition just as much. Here's their leader last week :
"“If you have the heart for it, take the step on the occupied and armed islands. We will support you,” CHP chief Kemal Kilicdaroglu was quoted by Turkish media as saying in response to one of a series of questions posed to him by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the Grand National Assembly on Wednesday."
"“It is imperative that we increase the pressure in the Mediterranean, and the Aegean,” he said.
Typical. My parents and sister have gone to lunch without me and Michael Gove is sat at table next to them.
All tory MPs should have the word c*nt shouted at them when you spot one in public. It's like Pokemon Go but more fun and socially useful. I've only done two. 😔
Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.
Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
Latest EMA shows Labour holding a 6% lead and 13 seats short of an overall majority on new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus. NB LDs with only 13 seats looks low to me.
So at the moment it looks like voters want the Tories out of government but still don't trust Labour with a majority, so basically the reverse of 2010
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
The only people forcing Ukraine to give up territory is because of facts on the ground. Pretending that those facts don't exist is bizarre and untypical of PB.
People comment on the Ukraine war as though it has some predestined end whereby the forces of good overcome the bad guys.
The world is full of countries which have changed borders as a result of military engagements. Why whisper it but some have involved Great Britain if you can believe that.
The question now is whether Russia is strong enough to do the same. We shall see. But one thing we don't seem to be doing is going to war against Russia to prevent it happening.
I'm not pretending the facts on the ground don't exist. If you want to make that sort of argument, then I'd say they you're saying Ukraine has already been defeated. Something you seem to have been saying since February 24th. ;(
The point is fuck-all to do with 'changed borders'. It is to do with the fact that the borders changed in 2014, and Russia just invaded again. Giving Russia territory now is not a guarantee of a peace for even a few years - as Dura_Ace admits.
We should have faced up to Russia in 2014. Or over Syria. We did not, and it emboldened Putin. If we force Ukraine to give in now, then he will be further emboldened.
The more Russia is weakened now, the better the future of the world in the medium and long term.
I didn't say Ukraine has already been defeated; I said that people such as yourself were making huge leaps of logic based upon 30-second youtube clips.
Or maybe listening to people like Phillips O'Brien, Lawrence Freedman, Michael Clarke and assorted retired generals who do this sort of thing for a living?
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
When, previous to the invasion, we were discussing Imperialism, it was interesting to see who was uncomfortable with the idea that modern Russia and China are explicitly imperialist and following a long history of imperialism in both countries.
I would be very interested in hearing what those determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian would make of a situation whereby an independent Scotland left NATO and entered into a close economic and security relationship with the Russian federation, including funding of scientific research, military training and cooperation, and intervention in politics at the highest level. Even more so if their influence had been won by supporting a series of protests that unseated an elected leader who had been in favour of close alignment with RUK. What would be a valid response to that? Would we wish them well and move on?
As is well established on PB, we would send 1 (one) truculent individual in 1 (one) rusty Second World War tank. Said tank would break down due to overheating long before it got to the Scottish border.
Everyone else would giggle.
Sorry, but there is no enthusiasm for making Glasgow into Mariupol or whatever.
Tiverton thoughts. Impact in national picture - cheesy photo op with Davey and his hammer breaking a wall of blue cardboard boxes whilst local LDs cheer if LDs win gives some wind to their sails and we see 16% in some polls? Fall short and its all SKS gains and LDs struggle to get coverage/lose deposit in Wakefield/can't win for porn and drift down towards 10%? Colourful descriptors aside a big one for their prospects given how hard it is to get exposure with very small taxi firm/disappointing unicycle parade numbers of MPs
The next big story will be Starmer and Rayner's defenestration by Durham Constabulary. I am assuming Priti is, as we speak, working as hard as one of TSE's Dockside Ladies, for this story to be out in public before the by-elections.
You have this conspiracy theory, but the questionnaires have a 28 day response time and apparently a witness is away on holiday
The decision will not be announced before the by elections if the police are following the same procedure as the Met
It is not a conspiracy, although if you want a conspiracy Mr and Mrs Johnson not being investigated at all for the Abba Party and Johnson accepting an FPN for the single event that could sink Sunak certainly smells like one.
Priti has every right as HS to demand a rigorous investigation into serious criminality by her political opponents. I am very much anticipating Starmer and Rayner's resignations.
In all fairness to you, Ivo Delingpole and the Daily Mail, you all called Beergate as a far more egregious breach of the law than any accusation made of Johnson, which as we now know was pretty much all above board according to the Met Police.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
When, previous to the invasion, we were discussing Imperialism, it was interesting to see who was uncomfortable with the idea that modern Russia and China are explicitly imperialist and following a long history of imperialism in both countries.
I would be very interested in hearing what those determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian would make of a situation whereby an independent Scotland left NATO and entered into a close economic and security relationship with the Russian federation, including funding of scientific research, military training and cooperation, and intervention in politics at the highest level. Even more so if their influence had been won by supporting a series of protests that unseated an elected leader who had been in favour of close alignment with RUK. What would be a valid response to that? Would we wish them well and move on?
As is well established on PB, we would send 1 (one) truculent individual in 1 (one) rusty Second World War tank. Said tank would break down due to overheating long before it got to the Scottish border.
Everyone else would giggle.
Sorry, but there is no enthusiasm for making Glasgow into Mariupol or whatever.
I am not for a minute suggesting that mounting an invasion of Scotland is how RUK would respond (still less one as destructive as the Russian one in Ukraine), but I am saying RUK would be unlikely to 'let the matter rest', and even if we wanted to, I doubt the US would allow us.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
When, previous to the invasion, we were discussing Imperialism, it was interesting to see who was uncomfortable with the idea that modern Russia and China are explicitly imperialist and following a long history of imperialism in both countries.
I would be very interested in hearing what those determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian would make of a situation whereby an independent Scotland left NATO and entered into a close economic and security relationship with the Russian federation, including funding of scientific research, military training and cooperation, and intervention in politics at the highest level. Even more so if their influence had been won by supporting a series of protests that unseated an elected leader who had been in favour of close alignment with RUK. What would be a valid response to that? Would we wish them well and move on?
As is well established on PB, we would send 1 (one) truculent individual in 1 (one) rusty Second World War tank. Said tank would break down due to overheating long before it got to the Scottish border.
Everyone else would giggle.
Sorry, but there is no enthusiasm for making Glasgow into Mariupol or whatever.
I am not for a minute suggesting that mounting an invasion of Scotland is how RUK would respond (still less one as destructive as the Russian one in Ukraine), but I am saying RUK would be unlikely to 'let the matter rest', and even if we wanted to, I doubt the US would allow us.
If an independent Scotland was out of NATO but effectively a Russian satellite then NATO might invade Scotland let alone the UK.
Though of course that would require a UK government to allow an independence referendum which Yes one and accept the result in the first place
I often find myself agreeing with Birbalsingh, although I shouldn't as she is the figurehead for Tory disciplinarianism in a post corporal punishment era. That said it seems to work, and I am old enough to remember being told that a good honest beating by masters at school was character building.
Discipline at Eton must have been pretty slack. Imagine if Johnson was at Michaela, he'd never be out of detention.
That's the problem in a nutshell, both in the way the government use her and, sadly, how she sounds off on discipline. It's tough no-nonsense discipline for the plebs (and don't go getting silly ideas about Oxbridge), and louche indulgence for the toffs. That may not be her view of the world but it is very much the Tory disciplinarian view of the world.
If you think there is no discipline at private schools, I suggest you never went to boarding school!
Birbalsingh also has an excellent record of getting her pupils into Oxbridge and the Russell Group. She just said that was not the only route to social mobility eg if your parents were unemployed and you get a job
I went to boarding school as it happens. Enjoyed it very much.
My beef isn't particularly with Birbalsingh (though she could do with a PR adviser) but with the underlying selective authoritarianism seen on the right across many walks of life which advocates the strictest possible sanctions to any wrongdoing when it affects "them", but tends to take a rather more libertarian approach to life when it affects "us".
That's just classic hypocrisy - the rules are for thee, not me.
In a way, the middle class parents sending their children to the Free School near me were doing something similar with their complaints that Daisy wasn't allowed to wear trainers. The school applied the uniform rules, uniformly. In the view of some of the parents, Daisy should have been an exception, since she was not likely to be into postcode wars.
In my (limited, personal) experience private school discipline was wildly inconsistent and hampered by the usual code of teenage omertà that my school dealt with very poorly. I was once given detention for “breaking wind loudly and rudely in class” (I still remember the citation). My infraction was not apologising to the teacher until after I’d apologised to my classmates in the blast zone. It got cancelled after my mother descended on the headteacher like Athena in a bad mood and I received a very red-faced apology from the head of senior years.
Meanwhile, the daughter of a major donor was booted for doing something illegal and they kicked up such a mighty fuss that her sentence was commuted to a week’s suspension.
Strictness doesn’t really matter since hotheads still do stupid shit and the emotional torturers continue to fly under the radar. I’d guess Birblesingh’s success is due to consistency and a laxer disciplinary code, but enforced equally and with gusto would work as well.
Comments
Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.
Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/27/turkeys-plan-to-forcibly-relocate-syrian-refugees-gains-momentum
#https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomb_of_Suleyman_Shah
Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
It is not a story I have known well, so I just ordered a copy.
I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
I have had two very pleasant experiences with my opposite numbers in both the Tory party and Labour party.
One election we were getting absolutely wiped out. We had lost all our seats to the Tories with just one remaining which was going to a recount with us just in the lead and it was for a well known popular councillor. The Tory agent conceded before he needed to. They might have actually won it, but he decided enough was enough. It was a genuine gesture.
On another occasion the returning office made a bizarre decision re a ballot paper in the spoilt pile. I was pretty sure we had won and if we had it was a big victory, but you don't know the result until the spoilt papers are decided and I was dithering. It was my first time as agent. The Labour agent had a quiet word in my ear and said 'You've got this, let it go'. I did and we had.
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/wakefield-voters-including-brexit-supporters-view-boris-johnson-negatively-polling-finds-3723275
Tl:Dr. By a margin of 73-11 voters want an independent inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the selection of the previous MP.
That's doesn't suggest much hope of a Tory hold tbh.
We're in a different world after February 24th (but some people are still nostalgic for the time before).
I rarely use them, but I now have Erdogan to thank for the knowledge that it's 'alt-u' followed by the vowel to be umlauted. Good on him.
My beef isn't particularly with Birbalsingh (though she could do with a PR adviser) but with the underlying selective authoritarianism seen on the right across many walks of life which advocates the strictest possible sanctions to any wrongdoing when it affects "them", but tends to take a rather more libertarian approach to life when it affects "us".
û ü ù ú ū
Q&A sessions where the moderator insists on taking a batch of questions before answering, rather than taking one question at a time. Invariably, the person tasked with answering has forgotten at least one of the questions after they've answered the first, and the question needs to be repeated.
So instead of streamlining the process, it takes longer.
You wear the most enormous blinkers if you think the Tories always run honest campaigns.
Little chance of the Democrats holding the White House in 24 if the war isn't won and the economy isn't recovering.
New Techne Westminster poll:
Lab: 39% (-1)
Cons: 33% (+1)
LD: 12% (-)
Grn: 6% (-)
SNP: 4% (-)
@techneUK. 8-9 June,
Changes from 2 June.
Holding pattern still despite Dog Rescue mania
https://epc.ae/en/details/featured/turkish-expansion-in-the-region-motives-restrictions-and-prospects
https://thearabweekly.com/erdogan-out-undo-treaty-lausanne-0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election
Whether he'd go quietly we'd have to see.
I noticed Sophie Raworth asked two questions in one to SKS a few weeks ago. Inevitably he chose the easy one to answer.
If by November 2024 the war is won, Putin is gone and most importantly for Americans "gas" prices are back down then a Biden second term might actually be a possibility and I never thought I'd say that.
Im calling 30% as the Tory marker 'against this backdrop' as 'parts of red wall up for grabs still'
In a way, the middle class parents sending their children to the Free School near me were doing something similar with their complaints that Daisy wasn't allowed to wear trainers. The school applied the uniform rules, uniformly. In the view of some of the parents, Daisy should have been an exception, since she was not likely to be into postcode wars.
Impact in national picture - cheesy photo op with Davey and his hammer breaking a wall of blue cardboard boxes whilst local LDs cheer if LDs win gives some wind to their sails and we see 16% in some polls?
Fall short and its all SKS gains and LDs struggle to get coverage/lose deposit in Wakefield/can't win for porn and drift down towards 10%?
Colourful descriptors aside a big one for their prospects given how hard it is to get exposure with very small taxi firm/disappointing unicycle parade numbers of MPs
Now back to my 한글 studies.
Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
File under too hard, I'm afraid.
And I'd hope it's fairly clear that my information sources are much wider than just 30-second YouTube clips. Some are 45 seconds long ...
More are on the way.
The decision will not be announced before the by elections if the police are following the same procedure as the Met
Could be a combination of many reasons.
In any case reading the runes it seems that it would take a huge change of fortune to stop a Con rout.
Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
Love your complacency 🙂
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1534955975530127360
Also worth remembering, this is a very safe Tory seat. The Party of "Bollocks to Brexit" is not a natural home for many of the voters here; more likely to be the biggest swing to the Can't Be Arsed Party as people stay home rather than vote LibDem to express their disapproval.
I think the first time we will be confident of actual movement, swing back to Tories or a move other way, will be in the changing of Opiniom over about 3 - 2 or 1 % leads as average over 3 or 4 or 5% leads as average over three.
Questions, questions. However now off to spend the afternoon with Pa Woolie and meine schwester.
Ta ta all.
The last one only narrowly failed. A combination of popular pressure, and Erdogan himself mysteriously not being where he was scheduled to be.
With popular pressure behind removing him, he'd be a goner.
In more than one sense.
First quarter of June polls have been poor for Labour - a government as lost and in as much disarray and opponent split as much as this and Labour lead going nowhere in polls so I’ve revised my Tory seat prediction up to 270 and that’s mainly cropped thanks to tactical votes, thinking today the PV could be close between Labour and Tory with some swingback.
It’s looking like a hung Parliament and probably the most well hung ever 280 versus 270. That should give Tories a lot of last minute votes in the campaign being the only ones who can promise their vote will avoid that sort of well hung madness.
Enjoy the weather, I’m going out drinking in the sun now. 🙋♀️
NB LDs with only 13 seats looks low to me.
"“If you have the heart for it, take the step on the occupied and armed islands. We will support you,” CHP chief Kemal Kilicdaroglu was quoted by Turkish media as saying in response to one of a series of questions posed to him by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the Grand National Assembly on Wednesday."
"“It is imperative that we increase the pressure in the Mediterranean, and the Aegean,” he said.
Everyone else would giggle.
Sorry, but there is no enthusiasm for making Glasgow into Mariupol or whatever.
Priti has every right as HS to demand a rigorous investigation into serious criminality by her political opponents. I am very much anticipating Starmer and Rayner's resignations.
In all fairness to you, Ivo Delingpole and the Daily Mail, you all called Beergate as a far more egregious breach of the law than any accusation made of Johnson, which as we now know was pretty much all above board according to the Met Police.
Though of course that would require a UK government to allow an independence referendum which Yes one and accept the result in the first place
Meanwhile, the daughter of a major donor was booted for doing something illegal and they kicked up such a mighty fuss that her sentence was commuted to a week’s suspension.
Strictness doesn’t really matter since hotheads still do stupid shit and the emotional torturers continue to fly under the radar. I’d guess Birblesingh’s success is due to consistency and a laxer disciplinary code, but enforced equally and with gusto would work as well.
The varying numbers around them being just MoE.
(I believe that pretty much every lead - from 3 pts for Labour to 11 pts for Labour) have had the overall scores within MoE of those numbers.
Return of Sub-Clancy invasion of Scotland discussion
Me:”…”