"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
In a forced choice between Finland/Sweden and Turkey NATO will choose Turkey due to a) geography and b) 400,000 strong armed forces of heavily armed fuckers.
Only if NATO think they can rely upon Turkey, when push comes to shove.
Under Erdogan that is looking increasingly unlikely. If Erdogan is no friend of NATO nations, and is a friend of Putin, then would he come to the aid of NATO if Article 5 was invoked? It isn't looking likely right now.
Erdoğan isn't a friend of Putin, there is historic enmity between Russia and Turkey, Turkey has sent weapons to Ukraine too, especially drones. Just he also wants to control the Kurds. He is the main NATO nation in the Middle East
Erdogan has his own aspirations for Turkey as an independent power. All alliances and relations are secondary to that - being allied to the west is simply more attractive. For now.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
Maybe, maybe not. The West's unofficial position on Kurds was support of their fighting Iraq or ISIS but turning a blind eye to Turkey bombing Kurds.
If ever a nation has been let down really really badly it's the Kurds!
I often find myself agreeing with Birbalsingh, although I shouldn't as she is the figurehead for Tory disciplinarianism in a post corporal punishment era. That said it seems to work, and I am old enough to remember being told that a good honest beating by masters at school was character building.
Discipline at Eton must have been pretty slack. Imagine if Johnson was at Michaela, he'd never be out of detention.
That's the problem in a nutshell, both in the way the government use her and, sadly, how she sounds off on discipline. It's tough no-nonsense discipline for the plebs (and don't go getting silly ideas about Oxbridge), and louche indulgence for the toffs. That may not be her view of the world but it is very much the Tory disciplinarian view of the world.
If you think there is no discipline at private schools, I suggest you never went to boarding school!
Birbalsingh also has an excellent record of getting her pupils into Oxbridge and the Russell Group. She just said that was not the only route to social mobility eg if your parents were unemployed and you get a job
Your first paragraph explains so much, thank you for your candour.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for the moment, I think, is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
The only people forcing Ukraine to give up territory is because of facts on the ground. Pretending that those facts don't exist is bizarre and untypical of PB.
People comment on the Ukraine war as though it has some predestined end whereby the forces of good overcome the bad guys.
The world is full of countries which have changed borders as a result of military engagements. Why whisper it but some have involved Great Britain if you can believe that.
The question now is whether Russia is strong enough to do the same. We shall see. But one thing we don't seem to be doing is going to war against Russia to prevent it happening.
That's not the only question. There are many questions, Russia's strength is one but in one way the least interesting one.
The most important question is the Wests resolve. If the West gives Ukraine the support they need then absolutely Russia can be defeated. If the West goes wobbly, then Russia can win the war and the whole post-war era where states in Europe don't change borders by war anymore is over.
You are absolutely right that nothing is predestined, but some people want to talk as if it is and realpolitik means Russia is strong so must win and there's nothing we can or should do about it. It is precisely because nothing is predestined that we have an opportunity and a responsibility to ensure that Ukraine can and do win the war.
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
Maybe, maybe not. The West's unofficial position on Kurds was support of their fighting Iraq or ISIS but turning a blind eye to Turkey bombing Kurds.
If ever a nation has been let down really really badly it's the Kurds!
Yep.
One of the interesting things about the war in Syria is that it has, to some extent, united the Kurds. The problem is that the Kurdish peoples are split between many countries: Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran etc. But AIUI a Syrian Kurd has a large degree of cultural difference to an Iranian Kurd, and the same with Turkish ones. They are a distinct people, but with large differences between them.
So much so, when Kurds started fighting in Syria against Assad, they had different commands for a couple of years (from memory), which was wasteful and caused disruptions. But from what I've read, they've united well, and the combat in Syria (along with the area of Iraq they essentially control) has provided the wider Kurdish people with a uniting pressure and caused more intermingling than previously was the case. Even taking into account the disastrous 2017 independence referendum.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
Maybe, maybe not. The West's unofficial position on Kurds was support of their fighting Iraq or ISIS but turning a blind eye to Turkey bombing Kurds.
If ever a nation has been let down really really badly it's the Kurds!
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
'@DailyMailUK has undertaken its own research', words guaranteed to initiate an ache in the healthiest of prostates. The Commiebiasfinder General is on the case.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1535184322797387776 "150-300 MLRS systems from the US will allow Ukraine to effectively liberate occupied territories. We undertand very well concerns of parters that we will carry out strikes on Russian territory but it won't happen," Zelenskyy top advisor Podoliak said
I often find myself agreeing with Birbalsingh, although I shouldn't as she is the figurehead for Tory disciplinarianism in a post corporal punishment era. That said it seems to work, and I am old enough to remember being told that a good honest beating by masters at school was character building.
Discipline at Eton must have been pretty slack. Imagine if Johnson was at Michaela, he'd never be out of detention.
That's the problem in a nutshell, both in the way the government use her and, sadly, how she sounds off on discipline. It's tough no-nonsense discipline for the plebs (and don't go getting silly ideas about Oxbridge), and louche indulgence for the toffs. That may not be her view of the world but it is very much the Tory disciplinarian view of the world.
If you think there is no discipline at private schools, I suggest you never went to boarding school!
There was no "louche indulgence" at my boarding school which has produced its share of tory mps (and anarchists).
My cousin went to the Downs then Monmouth School. He hated every moment, moreso than I detested Grammar School. At least at 4 pm every day I could leave it all behind for 17 hours, before the seven hours of purgatory started all over again.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
The only people forcing Ukraine to give up territory is because of facts on the ground. Pretending that those facts don't exist is bizarre and untypical of PB.
People comment on the Ukraine war as though it has some predestined end whereby the forces of good overcome the bad guys.
The world is full of countries which have changed borders as a result of military engagements. Why whisper it but some have involved Great Britain if you can believe that.
The question now is whether Russia is strong enough to do the same. We shall see. But one thing we don't seem to be doing is going to war against Russia to prevent it happening.
I'm not pretending the facts on the ground don't exist. If you want to make that sort of argument, then I'd say they you're saying Ukraine has already been defeated. Something you seem to have been saying since February 24th. ;(
The point is fuck-all to do with 'changed borders'. It is to do with the fact that the borders changed in 2014, and Russia just invaded again. Giving Russia territory now is not a guarantee of a peace for even a few years - as Dura_Ace admits.
We should have faced up to Russia in 2014. Or over Syria. We did not, and it emboldened Putin. If we force Ukraine to give in now, then he will be further emboldened.
The more Russia is weakened now, the better the future of the world in the medium and long term.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
I don't think there is a solution other than a total Ukrainian victory. Anything else just leads to a resumption of hostilities at some point int he future when Russia tries to conquer more territory.
It might be that the best route to a Ukrainian victory is via a de facto ceasefire, during which the Ukrainian armed forces can be supplied with more NATO equipment and trained to use it, so that they can win round 3, but that's different from the delusion that there is a durable peace settlement with Russia that involves ceding territory. That only feeds Russian expansionist ambitions.
I can't see how there can be a total Ukrainian victory against a much larger power. That could only happen with the fall of Putin, which doesn't seem to be on the cards, at least not for some considerable length of time.
If Ukraine has the military industry of the West behind it then which side has the greater power?
Of course Ukraine can win.
Then why hasn't it already done so? What will change over the next 1-12 weeks that will all of a sudden make the West do X? And what is X?
As discussed it's not clear that Ukraine does have the full backing of the West's military industry. It's mostly been provided with surplus and/or obsolete kit. It will take time to transition the Ukraine armed forces from Soviet era equipment to NATO standard. So you would expect the balance of forces to change as Ukraine makes that transition, and the large Russian stocks of equipment are eroded.
The West will provide that support if it makes what I think is the correct judgement that it's in our interests for Ukraine to win, and win quickly, and that it is possible.
Maybe the West will not make that judgement. Nothing is certain. I think the world will be a safer place if we do.
So why do you think it hasn't already done so?
They have given quite a lot already, but I suspect they would have wanted to give too much too soon in case Ukraine wasn't able to use it then it fell into Putin's hands.
Defensive equipment to help them absorb and repel the initial shock was most important. As time goes on, different types of weaponry and logistics will surely be needed.
So do you think we will see a decisive increase in the West's aid to Ukraine in the terms you (and @LostPassword ) describe?
That largely depends on the US.
It does indeed. Wars are very expensive, both directly and indirectly on the economy.
I have my doubts as to whether Ukraine can maintain a long war. Both economies are suffering major disruption. The Ukrainian grain harvest has very limited means of export, a quarter of the population are refugees and much of industry, workforce and logistics is now militarised. Without massive economic aid from the West, it is not sustainable for long as a high intensity war. Not that the Russians are in a much better position to continue either.
It's destructive for everyone involved - and those not directly involved, large parts of Africa for example, too.
23 million tonnes of last year's harvest unexportable, and who knows what of this year's will have consequences.
This awful situation might speed up addressing the question of why Africa, with its huge area and small population, is unable to feed itself and is so reliant on Russian and Ukrainian imports.
I often find myself agreeing with Birbalsingh, although I shouldn't as she is the figurehead for Tory disciplinarianism in a post corporal punishment era. That said it seems to work, and I am old enough to remember being told that a good honest beating by masters at school was character building.
Discipline at Eton must have been pretty slack. Imagine if Johnson was at Michaela, he'd never be out of detention.
That's the problem in a nutshell, both in the way the government use her and, sadly, how she sounds off on discipline. It's tough no-nonsense discipline for the plebs (and don't go getting silly ideas about Oxbridge), and louche indulgence for the toffs. That may not be her view of the world but it is very much the Tory disciplinarian view of the world.
If you think there is no discipline at private schools, I suggest you never went to boarding school!
There was no "louche indulgence" at my boarding school which has produced its share of tory mps (and anarchists).
My cousin went to the Downs then Monmouth School. He hated every moment, moreso than I detested Grammar School. At least at 4 pm every day I could leave it all behind for 17 hours, before the seven hours of purgatory started all over again.
Is there a quote of Birbalsingh promoting 'louche indulgence for the toffs', or is this just another red herring?
'@DailyMailUK has undertaken its own research', words guaranteed to initiate an ache in the healthiest of prostates. The Commiebiasfinder General is on the case.
Perhaps there might be a reason why searches for Bojo return results unfavourable to him, irrespective of any algorithm bias.... ?
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
Whoops I just noticed this was one of the elections with an expenses scandal. Does anyone remember who picked up the missing expenses on the return first? No wonder @hyufd is so sensitive about it. I am shocked again that he thinks it is ok if nobody is watching. That wouldn't cross my mind as an agent.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
For Nick Palmer, Dura_Ace and others who think we should negotiate with Putin by giving away parts of Ukraine.
What I think "should" happen (I'll should you right through that fucking window - M. Tucker) doesn't matter at all.
What's relevant is what's possible and likely to happen. The Ukrainians can't kick the Russians out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Russians can't get to the Dneiper.
So what's likely to happen is a negotiated ceasefire along those lines that neither side has any intention of honouring in the longer term.
Yeah the whole "Nick Palmer, Dura et al Russian apologists" thing is a bizarre PB tick that sees anyone who tries to identify a possible solution which doesn't involve a complete and utter Ukraine victory as Putin's stooge.
Perhaps we should go back to twitter footage of a Russian platoon in a contact dismounting its APC to draw meaningful insight from the war.
It really is not. Just before this war began, Nick was going on about how the US and UK warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine as wrong, as it might 'poke' Russia into the war.
It was bullshit (I believe Nick has since moderated his position). He also later went on about how we guaranteed Russia that NATO would not expand eastwards. Which appears not only to be wrong, but immoral as it gives Russia a great deal of power over their (in the minds) vassal states.
Those states are independent (yes, Russia Duma, even Lithuania). It should be up to them to decide - especially when they have a country near them acting as Russia is.
I am perfectly willing to listen to people who want to highlight any solution to this mess. I also hope they're willing to listen to why forcing Ukraine to give up territory (again) is a really bad idea in the medium and long term. But they rarely do.
The only people forcing Ukraine to give up territory is because of facts on the ground. Pretending that those facts don't exist is bizarre and untypical of PB.
People comment on the Ukraine war as though it has some predestined end whereby the forces of good overcome the bad guys.
The world is full of countries which have changed borders as a result of military engagements. Why whisper it but some have involved Great Britain if you can believe that.
The question now is whether Russia is strong enough to do the same. We shall see. But one thing we don't seem to be doing is going to war against Russia to prevent it happening.
I'm not pretending the facts on the ground don't exist. If you want to make that sort of argument, then I'd say they you're saying Ukraine has already been defeated. Something you seem to have been saying since February 24th. ;(
The point is fuck-all to do with 'changed borders'. It is to do with the fact that the borders changed in 2014, and Russia just invaded again. Giving Russia territory now is not a guarantee of a peace for even a few years - as Dura_Ace admits.
We should have faced up to Russia in 2014. Or over Syria. We did not, and it emboldened Putin. If we force Ukraine to give in now, then he will be further emboldened.
The more Russia is weakened now, the better the future of the world in the medium and long term.
I remember the Balkan Wars - "Facts on the Ground" were a big theme of trying to get everyone to admit the Serb irredentists had won. Until Clinton changed all the facts on the ground...
On Topic. 😂 well done hard left union Barons helping to save Big Dog!
I can’t believe anyone on PB support these strikes when the demands are so greedy. How much inflation busting pay rise? And a flat NO to business slimming workforce down through early retirement schemes now automation means existing size is false economy for the business.
It’s not that these massively overpaid and pampered union barons have their head in unreal fantasy land, they know what they doing, playing dumb ass political games and just enjoying themselves as their members expense!
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Speaking of drones, I haven't seen much footage of either I. Bayraktar strikes (From the Ukr side) or ii. Downed bayraktars (From the Russian side)
Are they till in theatre ?
Russia seems to have stepped up it's anti-drone game (And be using drones of their own) since the absolute monstering they took northwest of Киї(e)в in the early days.
They started the SMO with 18 TB2 (12 Air Force + 6 Navy) and have had 8 destroyed that we know about so it's fair to say the TB2 fleet has had a severe monstering and now they use them sparingly.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan might win one more election, as the opposition is divided. But Turkey is not Russia, and Erdogan is not Putin. I believe its democracy will survive Erdogan
If I had to characterise Erdogan I’d say he is an authoritarian religious nationalist, a mix of Orban and Modi, with a dash of Netanyahu. Not a pleasant chap, but he’s not a half-mad tyrant armed with nukes, bent on expansionism. Erdogan is not about to invade the once-Turkish parts of Greece. I hope
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to both the secular and the islamist - that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
I've been away for a day or two. Nice to see it sunny again.
What are views on the proposed killing of the 2 captive UK members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the unregognised 'court' in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'?
I see that one - Aiden Aslin - is a Ukrainian Citizen (reportedly).
Given that the court, and the government, has no status, will the next step - diplomacy aside - be to investigate the 'Judge' for commissioning a crime against humanity?
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Are you justifying committing a crime to win an election? You seem to be. As long as you can get away with it. You really have no morals at all.
Do you know who did spot the expenses issue? And if you think the LDs wouldn't have raised it if they had spotted it then you are completely naïve. Of course they would have done. It might not have helped them win that seat but a Tory scandal helps them else where. So they had a lot to gain.
With regard to your comment about least trusted that of course is your extremely biased view.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan might win one more election, as the opposition is divided. But Turkey is not Russia, and Erdogan is not Putin. I believe its democracy will survive Erdogan
If I had to characterise Erdogan I’d say he is an authoritarian religious nationalist, a mix of Orban and Modi, with a dash of Netanyahu. Not a pleasant chap, but he’s not a half-mad tyrant armed with nukes, bent on expansionism. Erdogan is not about to invade the once-Turkish parts of Greece. I hope
"Parts"? Until the 1820s, the whole of modern Greece was part of the Ottoman Empire.
I've been away for a day or two. Nice to see it sunny again.
What are views on the proposed killing of the 2 captive UK members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the unregognised 'court' in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'?
I see that one - Aiden Aslin - is a Ukrainian Citizen (reportedly).
Given that the court, and the government, has no status, will the next step - diplomacy aside - be to investigate the 'Judge' for commissioning a crime against humanity?
Well, it's illegal.
Given that they were uniformed members of the armed forces of a state, they are protected persons under a whole pile of the Laws Of War.
So if anything other than locking them up in moderately OK conditions happens, that is a a War Crime.
All the way back to the first Hague Convention, there is very clear law on this.
I've been away for a day or two. Nice to see it sunny again.
What are views on the proposed killing of the 2 captive UK members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the unregognised 'court' in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'?
Fizzy Lizzy will get them off with a combination of shrewd diplomacy, wily negotiation and steely resolve.
They are fucked. Another few months of DPR interrogators putting fags out on them then firing squad.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Well the Survation Wakefield poll suggests swing at about 15%, that won't be anywhere near enough in Tiverton, 15% swing would be a comfortable Tory hold (45 vs 30 or so for example). So unless the polling is miles out for Wakefield it will be much lower swing (if tiverton is a gain)
Speaking of drones, I haven't seen much footage of either I. Bayraktar strikes (From the Ukr side) or ii. Downed bayraktars (From the Russian side)
Are they till in theatre ?
Russia seems to have stepped up it's anti-drone game (And be using drones of their own) since the absolute monstering they took northwest of Киї(e)в in the early days.
They started the SMO with 18 TB2 (12 Air Force + 6 Navy) and have had 8 destroyed that we know about so it's fair to say the TB2 fleet has had a severe monstering and now they use them sparingly.
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Please substantiate. You cannot fling accusations like that without evidence.
I've been away for a day or two. Nice to see it sunny again.
What are views on the proposed killing of the 2 captive UK members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the unregognised 'court' in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'?
I see that one - Aiden Aslin - is a Ukrainian Citizen (reportedly).
Given that the court, and the government, has no status, will the next step - diplomacy aside - be to investigate the 'Judge' for commissioning a crime against humanity?
My view is they have been there years, making their life there, so the claim they are mercenaries does not stack up even 0.0001%.
The fact that Kremlin claim they don’t have death penalty but turn blind eye to their separatist militia having one just strengthens our resolve next time we visit petrol pump to fill up - such mendacious evil must not triumph.
I like to believe the so called experts, who say relax they just a bargaining chip for hostage swap, but I worry they will be killed.
It also comes across just about everyone in Ukraine have been doing perpetual national service for years and years - whilst our own country and EU have been allowing Russia and oligarchs sanction busting and taking the filthy ruble, we have overlooked how Ukraine have been at war and under threat for years and years.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
How do the politics of the diaspora play out wrt Turkey relations?
For example I have neighbours who came to the UK a generation ago. Classic pattern - four brothers now all professionals in several European countries in different professions.
My neighbours' historic home is in Northern Iraq, in what became the Islamic State heartland. They are very firmly anti-Turkey, from memories of various genocides, massacres, expulsions, and occupations.
Latest notes are around Turkish occupation of Kurdish areas.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
He’s probably in fear of a ruinous libel suit. An amazingly stupid thing to allege, unless he has cast iron proof
Speaking of drones, I haven't seen much footage of either I. Bayraktar strikes (From the Ukr side) or ii. Downed bayraktars (From the Russian side)
Are they till in theatre ?
Russia seems to have stepped up it's anti-drone game (And be using drones of their own) since the absolute monstering they took northwest of Киї(e)в in the early days.
They started the SMO with 18 TB2 (12 Air Force + 6 Navy) and have had 8 destroyed that we know about so it's fair to say the TB2 fleet has had a severe monstering and now they use them sparingly.
Маверик is so upset at being called a Russian stooge that he adopts and casually abbreviates their term for their brutal invasion.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Well, again I would say take a closer look at what's happening to the climate in Turkey at the moment. He is in huge trouble economically ; on Wednesday his most senior advisor, the apparent moderate who until 2018 who was in charge of accession negotiations with the EU, tweeted a picture of the Greek islands and Turkish landing craft with the caption "Maybe we will come at night". NATO membership certainly hasn't stopped the drift to Greco-Turkish conflict in the past. On Cyprus, he's just this week issued an unprecedented demand that the whole island be demilitarised, calling into question the role of the UN ( and British bases).
On the middle east, the point is more that the Turkish public has been increasingly very much conditioned to think of it as a domain lost, Putin-style. There's possibly never been such a consensus on neo-Ottomanism since modern Turkey's creation, because Ataturk was always extremely wary of it.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
I thought he was spouting nonsense at first but the retraction looks like it's been placed squarely in front of him with a threat of massive libel damages by YouGov's lawyers so I now think there's some truth to what he was saying.
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Do most think the Wakefield swing will be bigger? That would surely imply a Con hold in Devon. Either that or a mid 90's type move to Labour in Wakey? No sign of that at all.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Isn't Erdogan facing near certain defeat next year and replacement by a Kemalist liberal? You were there not so long ago I believe.
The unions really are stupid. The strikes almost certainly help the Tories. Nandy supporting them the other day reminded me why I can't trust Labour, so while I wouldn't vote Tory while The Clown is in office, I probably will not vote Labour. Looks like I am stuck with the beige LDs
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
I thought he was spouting nonsense at first but the retraction looks like it's been placed squarely in front of him with a threat of massive libel damages by YouGov's lawyers so I now think there's some truth to what he was saying.
If he had the actual messages that he alleged were sent, that would have been an open and shut defence.
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Well the Survation Wakefield poll suggests swing at about 15%, that won't be anywhere near enough in Tiverton, 15% swing would be a comfortable Tory hold (45 vs 30 or so for example). So unless the polling is miles out for Wakefield it will be much lower swing (if tiverton is a gain)
I agree.
So far today I have already had 2 email requests to go to Tiverton. It looks like they are going for it big time, which they will need to win it.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
He’s probably in fear of a ruinous libel suit. An amazingly stupid thing to allege, unless he has cast iron proof
That clarification looks fairly limited. It does not withdraw the allegation that Yougov suppressed the poll, or its motivation in doing so.
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Well the Survation Wakefield poll suggests swing at about 15%, that won't be anywhere near enough in Tiverton, 15% swing would be a comfortable Tory hold (45 vs 30 or so for example). So unless the polling is miles out for Wakefield it will be much lower swing (if tiverton is a gain)
Yes. Need 20.4% for even a gain in T+H. Similar in Wakey would be 60-27. I haven't seen that predicted or polled.
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Please substantiate. You cannot fling accusations like that without evidence.
When I was a Tory activist (before The Clown wrecked the party) the LDs were definitely loathed due to what were considered underhand "nail a jelly to the wall" type campaigning which was pretty ruthless. It hasn't stopped me lending them their vote, but I do know other moderate centre right Tories who loathe Johnson but cannot bring themselves to vote LD. That said, I do not recall any suggestion of electoral malpractice.
Blimey, what a morning. @Big_G_NorthWales revealed as a Kingsman operative. Although I acknowledge that any lad who could disrupt a music class with only a triangle showed promise.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
He’s probably in fear of a ruinous libel suit. An amazingly stupid thing to allege, unless he has cast iron proof
That clarification looks fairly limited. It does not withdraw the allegation that Yougov suppressed the poll, or its motivation in doing so.
It does withdraw the claim on its motivation for doing so.
The fact the poll wasn't published is a fact, but YouGov say that it wasn't published as it didn't pass their standards because of the methodology it was flawed. The Guardian report on this a few days ago had buried in it YouGov's response about why the poll was flawed too (the sample wasn't balanced) and so it didn't meet their standards for publication. Curtis disputed this, now he's no longer disputing it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1535184322797387776 "150-300 MLRS systems from the US will allow Ukraine to effectively liberate occupied territories. We undertand very well concerns of parters that we will carry out strikes on Russian territory but it won't happen," Zelenskyy top advisor Podoliak said
To give an idea of scale, the US made 1,300 M270 MLRS systems (although many were for export, they had about 800-1000 for their own use). The UK had 42.
They appear to have made a little more than 500 of the more modern M142 HIMARS. Poland have just ordered about 500.
So the US could procide 150-300 at reasonable cost, but it would draw down their own stocks markedly. Then again, I think all western arms manufacturers are going to be increasing their build rates over the next few years ...
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Do most think the Wakefield swing will be bigger? That would surely imply a Con hold in Devon. Either that or a mid 90's type move to Labour in Wakey? No sign of that at all.
Indeed, even Horses much vaunted focus group had zero labour enthusiasm, but much Tory yuck. Something like 50 to 30 on a low turnout i reckon, about 15% swing but unenthusiastic swing as it were. Tiverton i can see massive direct movement to LD. Nobody really wants to use useless labour as a protest, as locals repeatedly show. LDs however.........
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Do most think the Wakefield swing will be bigger? That would surely imply a Con hold in Devon. Either that or a mid 90's type move to Labour in Wakey? No sign of that at all.
I could be wrong, but I thought that was what people were saying a week or more ago, particularly after the big poll for Labour in Wakefield came out.
It certainly isn't my view, but I am wary re my view because I have no inside knowledge and I respect @MarqueeMark local knowledge which a week or two ago was only mediocre re LD progress.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
How do the politics of the diaspora play out wrt Turkey relations?
For example I have neighbours who came to the UK a generation ago. Classic pattern - four brothers now all professionals in several European countries in different professions.
My neighbours' historic home is in Northern Iraq, in what became the Islamic State heartland. They are very firmly anti-Turkey, from memories of various genocides, massacres, expulsions, and occupations.
Latest notes are around Turkish occupation of Kurdish areas.
I’m reading another book on the Armenian genocide. The Hundred Year Walk. Incredible. Without sounding too frivolous, once you get into this history it is “addictive” because it is so shocking and yet so misunderstood, or basically forgotten
It’s right up there with the greatest crimes in human history. In terms of genocides only the actual Holocaust outdoes it, perhaps
The wilful, systematic, determined destruction of 1.5m people, by a fairly sophisticated country in the 20th century. i can see why many many people have misgivings about Turkey and its history
Also, many of the worst crimes against the Armenians happened around Deir Zor, in Syria. Later to become a heartland of ISIS (as you note). Talk about haunted psychogeography…
Did you get any issues after killing the nosey drone? We are all behind you on that!
Nope. Threw the evidential wreckage into a neighbouring tory's bin in the dead of night and never heard anything else about it which supports my supposition that it was a rural burglary recon op.
If the robbing bastards would like to come in person they can expect to end up in the same bin in the same condition.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
It’s amazing what letter from lawyers can do?
Particularly if someone knows they might have libelled someone else. Then they are very effective. And quite rightly so.
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Do most think the Wakefield swing will be bigger? That would surely imply a Con hold in Devon. Either that or a mid 90's type move to Labour in Wakey? No sign of that at all.
Indeed, even Horses much vaunted focus group had zero labour enthusiasm, but much Tory yuck. Something like 50 to 30 on a low turnout i reckon, about 15% swing but unenthusiastic swing as it were. Tiverton i can see massive direct movement to LD. Nobody really wants to use useless labour as a protest, as locals repeatedly show. LDs however.........
I've been away for a day or two. Nice to see it sunny again.
What are views on the proposed killing of the 2 captive UK members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the unregognised 'court' in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'?
I see that one - Aiden Aslin - is a Ukrainian Citizen (reportedly).
Given that the court, and the government, has no status, will the next step - diplomacy aside - be to investigate the 'Judge' for commissioning a crime against humanity?
My view is they have been there years, making their life there, so the claim they are mercenaries does not stack up even 0.0001%.
The fact that Kremlin claim they don’t have death penalty but turn blind eye to their separatist militia having one just strengthens our resolve next time we visit petrol pump to fill up - such mendacious evil must not triumph.
I like to believe the so called experts, who say relax they just a bargaining chip for hostage swap, but I worry they will be killed.
It also comes across just about everyone in Ukraine have been doing perpetual national service for years and years - whilst our own country and EU have been allowing Russia and oligarchs sanction busting and taking the filthy ruble, we have overlooked how Ukraine have been at war and under threat for years and years.
The claim they are "mercenaries" has no standing in law, if they were part of the armed forces of Ukraine.
All states have the right to enlist anyone they feel like into their armies. All uniformed members of armies of states are subject to the full protection of the various Conventions on the laws of war.
See the French Foreign Legion (and Spanish version) for a long standing, recognised example of this.
In fact, on the basis of recognised badges, command structure, open carriage of arms etc, the various "private military contractors" that have been used around the world would also fall under the Conventions.
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Well the Survation Wakefield poll suggests swing at about 15%, that won't be anywhere near enough in Tiverton, 15% swing would be a comfortable Tory hold (45 vs 30 or so for example). So unless the polling is miles out for Wakefield it will be much lower swing (if tiverton is a gain)
I agree.
So far today I have already had 2 email requests to go to Tiverton. It looks like they are going for it big time, which they will need to win it.
I have had also had a request to go to Tiverton or Wakefield or to phone
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Well the Survation Wakefield poll suggests swing at about 15%, that won't be anywhere near enough in Tiverton, 15% swing would be a comfortable Tory hold (45 vs 30 or so for example). So unless the polling is miles out for Wakefield it will be much lower swing (if tiverton is a gain)
I agree.
So far today I have already had 2 email requests to go to Tiverton. It looks like they are going for it big time, which they will need to win it.
I have had also had a request to go to Tiverton or Wakefield or to phone
I would be shocked if you hadn't. The point I was making is it was two different requests and by 10 am in the morning.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Isn't Erdogan facing near certain defeat next year and replacement by a Kemalist liberal? You were there not so long ago I believe.
The opposition is badly divided, so he could sneak through. But medium tern his political prognosis is not great
Did you get any issues after killing the nosey drone? We are all behind you on that!
Nope. Threw the evidential wreckage into a neighbouring tory's bin in the dead of night and never heard anything else about it which supports my supposition that it was a rural burglary recon op.
If the robbing bastards would like to come in person they can expect to end up in the same bin in the same condition.
An anarchist supporting lethal defence of private property?
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
Second bit of sagery. If BJ stays he needs to fight a GE within a year, he will lose but to weakish Hung parliament and a new leader might get them back in one term. If he stays and goes long they are out for a decade. New leader - lets see
Speaking of drones, I haven't seen much footage of either I. Bayraktar strikes (From the Ukr side) or ii. Downed bayraktars (From the Russian side)
Are they till in theatre ?
Russia seems to have stepped up it's anti-drone game (And be using drones of their own) since the absolute monstering they took northwest of Киї(e)в in the early days.
They started the SMO with 18 TB2 (12 Air Force + 6 Navy) and have had 8 destroyed that we know about so it's fair to say the TB2 fleet has had a severe monstering and now they use them sparingly.
I've noted occasional cargo flights from Bayraktar HQ to theatre. They had a couple of A400s stuck in Ukr when the war started.
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Well the Survation Wakefield poll suggests swing at about 15%, that won't be anywhere near enough in Tiverton, 15% swing would be a comfortable Tory hold (45 vs 30 or so for example). So unless the polling is miles out for Wakefield it will be much lower swing (if tiverton is a gain)
I agree.
So far today I have already had 2 email requests to go to Tiverton. It looks like they are going for it big time, which they will need to win it.
I have had also had a request to go to Tiverton or Wakefield or to phone
So. Which will it be? Disadvantage of a two-front battle here. Not ideal for nipping between the two either.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Wasn''t there a row about the Tories doing. just that in, I think, 2015?
Yes. For the Rochester by-election
When the Tories main opponents were UKIP so the other opposition parties turned a blind eye in the campaign
I don't understand that post. Are you suggesting the Tories would break the election expenses rules if their opponents weren't watching them?
Not that that would work because anyone can inspect their return and it is checked. You would easily get away with a technical breach but not missing off a coach hire. I was always scrupulously honest and would declare stuff that probably wouldn't need declaring just to be on the safe side. We would always check our opponents if we thought there might be an issue.
Except you didn't at the time as that would have handed the seat to UKIP and your party was in government with the Tories.
Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents you would have been in full sanctimonious LD mode no doubt!
I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about or what your post means.
We are talking about declaring expenses. What are you talking about?
I didn't what at the time?
Ahhh are you saying we didn't check the Tories expenses for the by election? How on earth do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if both the LDs and Labour did in case there was a potential scandal.
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
It is well known that in both Labour and the Tories the LDs are the least trusted campaigners of the 3 main parties.
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
Please substantiate. You cannot fling accusations like that without evidence.
In my experience Labour and Tory campaigners are each others opponents but they both loathe LD campaigns because they are totally ruthless and will exploit any local issue for their own ends.
I well remember one general election campaign count in 2005 where the rather pompous LD agent told the Tory and Labour campaign heads 'there are lessons for the Tories and Labour in this'. To which the Tory and Labour campaigners replied in unison 'there are also lessons for the LDs in this in how to avoid coming third!!'
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Thanks for that. I agree with your prediction re the 2 by elections, but I don't think that is the general view (regarding the swings not the results obviously). Most seem to think Wakefield will be bigger. I disagree I think Tiverton will be greater, but that is my gut as I have no inside knowledge.
Well the Survation Wakefield poll suggests swing at about 15%, that won't be anywhere near enough in Tiverton, 15% swing would be a comfortable Tory hold (45 vs 30 or so for example). So unless the polling is miles out for Wakefield it will be much lower swing (if tiverton is a gain)
I agree.
So far today I have already had 2 email requests to go to Tiverton. It looks like they are going for it big time, which they will need to win it.
I have had also had a request to go to Tiverton or Wakefield or to phone
So. Which will it be? Disadvantage of a two-front battle here. Not ideal for nipping between the two either.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
How do the politics of the diaspora play out wrt Turkey relations?
For example I have neighbours who came to the UK a generation ago. Classic pattern - four brothers now all professionals in several European countries in different professions.
My neighbours' historic home is in Northern Iraq, in what became the Islamic State heartland. They are very firmly anti-Turkey, from memories of various genocides, massacres, expulsions, and occupations.
Latest notes are around Turkish occupation of Kurdish areas.
I can see there being an even more exciting arms race between Turkiye and Greece if the former were to leave NATO. Very unlikely, though.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
I thought he was spouting nonsense at first but the retraction looks like it's been placed squarely in front of him with a threat of massive libel damages by YouGov's lawyers so I now think there's some truth to what he was saying.
I cannot agree. To do so might be construed as an implication that his posts have caused YouGov repetitional damage. You should retract that I think.
I shall from now on refer to them as the pollsters co-founded by Nadim Zahawi.
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
Turkey has already invaded Syria. There are Turkish soldiers in Syria, as well as Turkish-backed militia. Around 300 Turkish soldiers have been killed to date.
But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
I think part of the current plan is to create zones several miles into Northern Syria controlled by Turkey, and send Syrian refugees to be housed in settlements there, simultaneously expanding the Turkish zone of influence there. The Russians haven't given him the OK for this yet, though, apparently, and they're discussing it.
And in the pollster wars YG GAIN grovelling climbdown from Curtis
Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
Unwise to say stuff about folk who have massively more money than you do, unless you can prove it to a high standard of certainty.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
Flawed methodology.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
Uhuh.
YouGov's response from a few days ago.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR. Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury. They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
I will find it hard to believe until he is gone. He seems to want to be a dictator, so even if people want secularism, he may be able to destroy the Turkey of Ataturk, sadly.
Erdogan: "Actually, dudes, it's Türkiye now!"
Not in English though.....
Er....
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
"Turkey is among the countries continuing to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine, Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said today.
Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar also told reporters he has sought help from Turkish authorities and Interpol to investigate who is involved in the shipments of grains transiting Turkish waters."
Turkey will continue to buy Russian grain, or it's population would err.. starve.
Has Turkey began (Continued) it's Northern Syria invasion, or is it only Russian landgrabs that bother us these days ?
They're conferring with the Russians about it at the moment. It's a crucial test of how close or not they will become, I think.
I note Turkey wants full selling out of the kurds as it's price for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Yes, and I can't see either Washington or Finland and Sweden agreeing to this. They're also making a whole list of other maximalist demands.
Turkey could be on the way out of NATO.
No way. Far too strategic, and gives NATO cover as a large Islamic country, proving that NATO is not some Christian, Crusader alliance
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
Perhaps, but see my post below on changes to Turkey domestically. The question for now I think is whether Turkey becomes a NATO member in name only, while feeling a lot in common with the historical revisionism of Russia,
Erdogan is fading in popularity and Turkey is drifting back to secularism
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
The problem is, that may be when he's at his most dangerous. In the last few years he's increasingly switched to cultivating secular ultra-nationalist support to prop himself up. Neo-Ottoman expansionism can appeal to the secular and the islamist- and that's what's most worrying at the moment, I think.
Where can he possibly expand? He is is surrounded by states that are either in NATO (Greece), or defended by Russia (Armenia), or horribly problematic and not worth a single Turkish life (Iraq, Syria)
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
How do the politics of the diaspora play out wrt Turkey relations?
For example I have neighbours who came to the UK a generation ago. Classic pattern - four brothers now all professionals in several European countries in different professions.
My neighbours' historic home is in Northern Iraq, in what became the Islamic State heartland. They are very firmly anti-Turkey, from memories of various genocides, massacres, expulsions, and occupations.
Latest notes are around Turkish occupation of Kurdish areas.
I’m reading another book on the Armenian genocide. The Hundred Year Walk. Incredible. Without sounding too frivolous, once you get into this history it is “addictive” because it is so shocking and yet so misunderstood, or basically forgotten
It’s right up there with the greatest crimes in human history. In terms of genocides only the actual Holocaust outdoes it, perhaps
The wilful, systematic, determined destruction of 1.5m people, by a fairly sophisticated country in the 20th century. i can see why many many people have misgivings about Turkey and its history
Also, many of the worst crimes against the Armenians happened around Deir Zor, in Syria. Later to become a heartland of ISIS (as you note). Talk about haunted psychogeography…
It is a period of history IIRC mentioned in "Birds Without Wings" by de Bernières. Quite a hard work novel but nonetheless moving. Before reading it I had no idea about the fate of the Armenians
Last nights by elections were fairly unspectacular Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of % LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
Your psephoenterology posts are excellent Woolie. Your posts on yesterdays poll where you said the last three wilts are totally consistent on saying 6% lead 39-33 was spot on.
Nb the one Wakefield poll did suggest mere tiny amount of Tory to Labour switchers, Lab win just stay at home Tories, 1987-1992 style by election. Fools gold.
Comments
All alliances and relations are secondary to that - being allied to the west is simply more attractive. For now.
A compromise will be found. Erdogan is just extracting his shilling and trying to divert attention from Turkish inflation
The most important question is the Wests resolve. If the West gives Ukraine the support they need then absolutely Russia can be defeated. If the West goes wobbly, then Russia can win the war and the whole post-war era where states in Europe don't change borders by war anymore is over.
You are absolutely right that nothing is predestined, but some people want to talk as if it is and realpolitik means Russia is strong so must win and there's nothing we can or should do about it. It is precisely because nothing is predestined that we have an opportunity and a responsibility to ensure that Ukraine can and do win the war.
The RMT could at least have waited till AFTER the by-elections!
Anyway the returning officers office would have checked them, UKIP would have definitely checked them and I'm sure the media would have also done so particularly with issues that had arisen previously, so the Tories wouldn't have put in a false return anyway because Agents are generally honest and it would be stupid to do so.
It was you suggesting otherwise (because Lab and LDs would not be on the lookout) and again I am surprised by your lack of morals on such issues. I have known a number of Tory Agents in my time and I have found them all to be honest decent people. In fact the Agents often get on well across parties.
One of the interesting things about the war in Syria is that it has, to some extent, united the Kurds. The problem is that the Kurdish peoples are split between many countries: Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran etc. But AIUI a Syrian Kurd has a large degree of cultural difference to an Iranian Kurd, and the same with Turkish ones. They are a distinct people, but with large differences between them.
So much so, when Kurds started fighting in Syria against Assad, they had different commands for a couple of years (from memory), which was wasteful and caused disruptions. But from what I've read, they've united well, and the combat in Syria (along with the area of Iraq they essentially control) has provided the wider Kurdish people with a uniting pressure and caused more intermingling than previously was the case. Even taking into account the disastrous 2017 independence referendum.
The change in Turkey in my last two visits (both this year, to the conservative eastern interior and the westernised Aegean coast) has been striking, Portraits of Kemal Ataturk- which have always been a thing, but in the last decade or two dwindled away - are now back in dramatic style. Huge ones, everywhere. Kemal is the hero of secularists
In super orthodox Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, the women were dressed much less conservatively than the Muslim women of Tower Hamlets. I saw maybe one full on burqa, whereas 20 years ago they were ubiquitous
I could be wrong, but I sense a positive change in Turkey. Erdogan used religious conservatism and the veil as a way to extend and enforce power. Now his grip weakens
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1535184322797387776
"150-300 MLRS systems from the US will allow Ukraine to effectively liberate occupied territories. We undertand very well concerns of parters that we will carry out strikes on Russian territory but it won't happen," Zelenskyy top advisor Podoliak said
The point is fuck-all to do with 'changed borders'. It is to do with the fact that the borders changed in 2014, and Russia just invaded again. Giving Russia territory now is not a guarantee of a peace for even a few years - as Dura_Ace admits.
We should have faced up to Russia in 2014. Or over Syria. We did not, and it emboldened Putin. If we force Ukraine to give in now, then he will be further emboldened.
The more Russia is weakened now, the better the future of the world in the medium and long term.
(Morning all)
Of course the LDs didn't raise anything at the time because the Tories main opponents were UKIP and the LDs had nothing to gain. Had the LDs been the Tories main opponents they would have been on it like a shot
It’s not that these massively overpaid and pampered union barons have their head in unreal fantasy land, they know what they doing, playing dumb ass political games and just enjoying themselves as their members expense!
Lab get hold of Crawley council with a hold but swing vs tories less than 1% with both gaining a couple of %
LD gain in Sevenoaks from Tories on a tiny turnout
Tories manage a hold in my neck of the woods in Breckland with an indy challenging and getting a few from Tories and Labour
General pattern continues - LD strong in affluent Tory areas, Tories creaking, Labour not impressing
Prediction - both Parly by elections gains but swing in Wakefield msny many degrees lower
If I had to characterise Erdogan I’d say he is an authoritarian religious nationalist, a mix of Orban and Modi, with a dash of Netanyahu. Not a pleasant chap, but he’s not a half-mad tyrant armed with nukes, bent on expansionism. Erdogan is not about to invade the once-Turkish parts of Greece. I hope
What are views on the proposed killing of the 2 captive UK members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the unregognised 'court' in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'?
I see that one - Aiden Aslin - is a Ukrainian Citizen (reportedly).
Given that the court, and the government, has no status, will the next step - diplomacy aside - be to investigate the 'Judge' for commissioning a crime against humanity?
Do you know who did spot the expenses issue? And if you think the LDs wouldn't have raised it if they had spotted it then you are completely naïve. Of course they would have done. It might not have helped them win that seat but a Tory scandal helps them else where. So they had a lot to gain.
With regard to your comment about least trusted that of course is your extremely biased view.
I guess he could invade Georgia, or try and take over all of Cyprus, but I somehow doubt it
Turkey’s expansion will be cultural and economic, and it was doing that quite well, until the recent downturns
I can remember when tories where strumming themselves off over the notion of pay increases for other ranks. It was a brexit bonanza bonus benefit.
Given that they were uniformed members of the armed forces of a state, they are protected persons under a whole pile of the Laws Of War.
So if anything other than locking them up in moderately OK conditions happens, that is a a War Crime.
All the way back to the first Hague Convention, there is very clear law on this.
They are fucked. Another few months of DPR interrogators putting fags out on them then firing squad.
@chriscurtis94
Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused. 4/4
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
So unless the polling is miles out for Wakefield it will be much lower swing (if tiverton is a gain)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/05/10/new-turkish-bayraktar-drones-still-seem-to-be-reaching-ukraine/?sh=76132ec9685b
There were rumours that Ukraine were getting one a week or so. They might not be correct, but it does seem they are getting some.
The fact that Kremlin claim they don’t have death penalty but turn blind eye to their separatist militia having one just strengthens our resolve next time we visit petrol pump to fill up - such mendacious evil must not triumph.
I like to believe the so called experts, who say relax they just a bargaining chip for hostage swap, but I worry they will be killed.
It also comes across just about everyone in Ukraine have been doing perpetual national service for years and years - whilst our own country and EU have been allowing Russia and oligarchs sanction busting and taking the filthy ruble, we have overlooked how Ukraine have been at war and under threat for years and years.
For example I have neighbours who came to the UK a generation ago. Classic pattern - four brothers now all professionals in several European countries in different professions.
My neighbours' historic home is in Northern Iraq, in what became the Islamic State heartland. They are very firmly anti-Turkey, from memories of various genocides, massacres, expulsions, and occupations.
Latest notes are around Turkish occupation of Kurdish areas.
On the middle east, the point is more that the Turkish public has been increasingly very much conditioned to think of it as a domain lost, Putin-style. There's possibly never been such a consensus on neo-Ottomanism since modern Turkey's creation, because Ataturk was always extremely wary of it.
What's the official line now on why the poll was pulled ?
That would surely imply a Con hold in Devon. Either that or a mid 90's type move to Labour in Wakey?
No sign of that at all.
While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology. 2/4
So far today I have already had 2 email requests to go to Tiverton. It looks like they are going for it big time, which they will need to win it.
Did you get any issues after killing the nosey drone? We are all behind you on that!
Similar in Wakey would be 60-27.
I haven't seen that predicted or polled.
The fact the poll wasn't published is a fact, but YouGov say that it wasn't published as it didn't pass their standards because of the methodology it was flawed. The Guardian report on this a few days ago had buried in it YouGov's response about why the poll was flawed too (the sample wasn't balanced) and so it didn't meet their standards for publication. Curtis disputed this, now he's no longer disputing it.
They appear to have made a little more than 500 of the more modern M142 HIMARS. Poland have just ordered about 500.
So the US could procide 150-300 at reasonable cost, but it would draw down their own stocks markedly. Then again, I think all western arms manufacturers are going to be increasing their build rates over the next few years ...
Something like 50 to 30 on a low turnout i reckon, about 15% swing but unenthusiastic swing as it were.
Tiverton i can see massive direct movement to LD.
Nobody really wants to use useless labour as a protest, as locals repeatedly show. LDs however.........
It certainly isn't my view, but I am wary re my view because I have no inside knowledge and I respect @MarqueeMark local knowledge which a week or two ago was only mediocre re LD progress.
It’s right up there with the greatest crimes in human history. In terms of genocides only the actual Holocaust outdoes it, perhaps
The wilful, systematic, determined destruction of 1.5m people, by a fairly sophisticated country in the 20th century. i can see why many many people have misgivings about Turkey and its history
Also, many of the worst crimes against the Armenians happened around Deir Zor, in Syria. Later to become a heartland of ISIS (as you note). Talk about haunted psychogeography…
If the robbing bastards would like to come in person they can expect to end up in the same bin in the same condition.
In December 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a circular calling for exports to be labelled “Made in Türkiye”. The circular also stated that in relation to other governmental communications “necessary sensitivity will be shown on the use of the phrase ‘Türkiye’ instead of phrases such as ‘Turkey,’ ‘Türkei,’ ‘Turquie’ etc.”[35][36] The reason given in the circular for preferring Türkiye was that it "represents and expresses the culture, civilisation, and values of the Turkish nation in the best way". According to Turkish state broadcaster TRT World, it was also to avoid a pejorative association with turkey, the bird.[34] It was reported in January 2022 that the government planned to register Türkiye with the United Nations.[37] Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu sent letters to the UN and other international organisations on 31 May 2022 requesting that they use Türkiye. The UN agreed and implemented the request immediately.[38][39]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey#Name
All states have the right to enlist anyone they feel like into their armies. All uniformed members of armies of states are subject to the full protection of the various Conventions on the laws of war.
See the French Foreign Legion (and Spanish version) for a long standing, recognised example of this.
In fact, on the basis of recognised badges, command structure, open carriage of arms etc, the various "private military contractors" that have been used around the world would also fall under the Conventions.
New leader - lets see
Disadvantage of a two-front battle here.
Not ideal for nipping between the two either.
YouGov said the allegation was “incorrect”. A spokesperson said: “There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31 May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
“We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
“The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was ‘too positive about Labour’ is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations.”
That does seem reasonable to be fair, they did indeed publish the MRP and got a lot of stick for it but were right to do so.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/08/yougov-sat-on-2017-poll-as-it-was-too-positive-on-labour-claims-ex-employee
I well remember one general election campaign count in 2005 where the rather pompous LD agent told the Tory and Labour campaign heads 'there are lessons for the Tories and Labour in this'. To which the Tory and Labour campaigners replied in unison 'there are also lessons for the LDs in this in how to avoid coming third!!'
There will be an interesting game of industrial dispute chess coming up.
To do so might be construed as an implication that his posts have caused YouGov repetitional damage. You should retract that I think.
I shall from now on refer to them as the pollsters co-founded by Nadim Zahawi.
Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury.
They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
Nb the one Wakefield poll did suggest mere tiny amount of Tory to Labour switchers, Lab win just stay at home Tories, 1987-1992 style by election. Fools gold.