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The polling that should scare Tory MPs – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    I didn't realise she was that old.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    At our local petrol station, diesel had been significantly more expensive than petrol, but I noticed that today they were the same price. Because petrol had risen, not that diesel had fallen.
    BP on the Eastern Avenue, Ilford, still have two petrol stations on opposite carriageways with different prices. Eastbound 184.9, westbound 183.9.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    Hardly the same thing, if it was the UK would have invaded the Republic of Ireland as Putin's Russia has invaded Ukraine. The majority of the people of Northern Ireland want to stay in the UK
  • Ask your questions to @Keir_Starmer. The Labour leader joins @NickFerrariLBC from 9am tomorrow morning to answer LBC listeners’ questions.

    As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Keir will be reaffirming Labour's new/current policy on trans rights and this will be his first opportunity to publicly do so.
  • I've just applied to switch to First Direct, £125 of free money
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,695
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    It goes without saying that tweeter had a Palestinian flag proudly displayed.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    At our local petrol station, diesel had been significantly more expensive than petrol, but I noticed that today they were the same price. Because petrol had risen, not that diesel had fallen.
    Yes, during my fortnight away, petrol at my local Tesco's had risen from 162.9p to 171.9p per litre. Diesel at 183.9p per litre. Extraordinary prices - I'd love to see the breakdown of the cost of a litre between the oil company, the refinery, the transport, fuel duty etc to see where (if anywhere) the profit is being made.

    I can't believe this isn't going to have an impact through the economy going forward. The quadrupling of oil prices in 1973-74 was a severe shock - this not on the same scale but still considerable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951
    ping said:

    Grimsby promoted to the EFL

    Beat Solihull Moors 2-1 in extra time.

    FEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESH!
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,695
    stodge said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    At our local petrol station, diesel had been significantly more expensive than petrol, but I noticed that today they were the same price. Because petrol had risen, not that diesel had fallen.
    Yes, during my fortnight away, petrol at my local Tesco's had risen from 162.9p to 171.9p per litre. Diesel at 183.9p per litre. Extraordinary prices - I'd love to see the breakdown of the cost of a litre between the oil company, the refinery, the transport, fuel duty etc to see where (if anywhere) the profit is being made.

    I can't believe this isn't going to have an impact through the economy going forward. The quadrupling of oil prices in 1973-74 was a severe shock - this not on the same scale but still considerable.
    It’s going to have a colossal impact and the rise in oil prices has not stopped yet.

    I’d be interested in what @Richard_Tyndall thinks on this and where the bottlenecks are. Refining capacity ? Production capacity ? Also more importantly what can be done to reduce the price per barrel.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,434
    edited June 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,079
    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    The other one is milk... The two pint bottles that fit in our fridge, the price stuck at 95p for ages. Since it broke a pound a bottle, there's been no stopping the increases. £1.20 last time I looked. Though the four pint bottles don't seem to have increased anything bloke as much.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,695

    Ask your questions to @Keir_Starmer. The Labour leader joins @NickFerrariLBC from 9am tomorrow morning to answer LBC listeners’ questions.

    As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Keir will be reaffirming Labour's new/current policy on trans rights and this will be his first opportunity to publicly do so.

    ‘Sir Keir, why is it during Pride month you are throwing trans women under the bus ?’
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Taz said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    It goes without saying that tweeter had a Palestinian flag proudly displayed.
    It's a shame, since I think an awful lot of people have great sympathy for the Palestinians, but inclusion of such is a pretty telling indicator more often than not.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2022
    In an interview on Russian state TV on Sunday, Mr Putin said: "In general, all this fuss about additional arms supplies, in my opinion, has only one goal, to stretch the armed conflict as long as possible."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61697093

    By golly detective Putin, I think you've cracked this mystery. They don't want you to be able to win quickly and easily you say?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Taz said:

    Ask your questions to @Keir_Starmer. The Labour leader joins @NickFerrariLBC from 9am tomorrow morning to answer LBC listeners’ questions.

    As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Keir will be reaffirming Labour's new/current policy on trans rights and this will be his first opportunity to publicly do so.

    ‘Sir Keir, why is it during Pride month you are throwing trans women under the bus ?’
    Pride *month*! As long as Ramadan.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    Leon said:

    Biblical storm in Tbilisi. Again

    And I managed to capture my first ever lightning strike. Over the cathedral


    Comrade Stalin's ghost is NOT resting easy (or happy) these days?
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,695
    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    It goes without saying that tweeter had a Palestinian flag proudly displayed.
    It's a shame, since I think an awful lot of people have great sympathy for the Palestinians, but inclusion of such is a pretty telling indicator more often than not.
    It’s one of those things on Twitter, like FBPE or a Union Jack profile pic. Denotes a total numpty.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    I suspect that Brady has sought and been given a small window of silence over the Jubilee weekend.

    Pure guesswork, but Tuesday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,951

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,434
    stodge said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    At our local petrol station, diesel had been significantly more expensive than petrol, but I noticed that today they were the same price. Because petrol had risen, not that diesel had fallen.
    Yes, during my fortnight away, petrol at my local Tesco's had risen from 162.9p to 171.9p per litre. Diesel at 183.9p per litre. Extraordinary prices - I'd love to see the breakdown of the cost of a litre between the oil company, the refinery, the transport, fuel duty etc to see where (if anywhere) the profit is being made.

    I can't believe this isn't going to have an impact through the economy going forward. The quadrupling of oil prices in 1973-74 was a severe shock - this not on the same scale but still considerable.
    At 183.9p I make it 57.9 fuel duty, 30.6 VAT so 88p, over half, directly to HMRC before corporation tax etc.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,695
    geoffw said:

    Taz said:

    Ask your questions to @Keir_Starmer. The Labour leader joins @NickFerrariLBC from 9am tomorrow morning to answer LBC listeners’ questions.

    As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Keir will be reaffirming Labour's new/current policy on trans rights and this will be his first opportunity to publicly do so.

    ‘Sir Keir, why is it during Pride month you are throwing trans women under the bus ?’
    Pride *month*! As long as Ramadan.

    It’s big business now.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    So? If Boris is gone there's a very high chance we'll get a better government this year instead of having to wait 2.5 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2022

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    You think there is a replacement PM lined up such that Boris would depart as PM at once?

    Edit: He only needs to get to Wednesday to go past Brown's tenure. To Saturday to beat the Iron Duke.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    VAT and fuel duty are still about half the cost of an imperial pint of petrol, so let's not pretend the government can do nothing. And our Scots cousins are still digging oil out of the North Sea, so a high price is not all bad news on the revenue front.

    Aiui OPEC is talking about increased production which might help stabilise prices.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited June 2022

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited June 2022

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    You have inside knowledge of Tiverton & Honiton to assert that? I ask because you attempted to flame me for making a forecast, although you have gone a lot further with predictions and timescales.

    You may be right but I am a little wary.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,434

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    With our overcrowding, not sure we could or should do that on most commuter trains but why not experiment a bit with very low fares at other times. People have got used to working from home and flexible hours so no reason everyone has to arrive between 8-9 and leave around 5-6.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    kle4 said:

    In an interview on Russian state TV on Sunday, Mr Putin said: "In general, all this fuss about additional arms supplies, in my opinion, has only one goal, to stretch the armed conflict as long as possible."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61697093

    By golly detective Putin, I think you've cracked this mystery. They don't want you to be able to win quickly and easily you say?

    We need to turn this argument around. Delivering weapons is about speeding up the end of the conflict. Not delivering weapons means years of internecine conflict from partisans who are not going to accept Russian occupation. It took 10 years to get them out of Afghanistan. Better to get them out of Ukraine in a few months.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2022
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    Maybe, but in reference to someone throwing a hissy fit on Twitter about a diplomatic statement between Heads of State, is it that off base?

    There have to be some occasions such terms are appropriate.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,695
    Oil could hit 180

    https://youtu.be/ES9iNqVQymo
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Heathener said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    You have inside knowledge of Tiverton & Honiton to assert that? I ask because you attempted to flame me for making a forecast, although you have gone a lot further with predictions and timescales.

    You may be right but I am a little wary.

    @MarqueeMark has claimed the Conservative vote is holding up in Tiverton and he may be right though I've often found canvassing claims especially by those who are reporting favourable canvassing for their own party are about as reliable and useful as the Stodge Saturday Patent.

    It's far more interesting when those canvassing for a party report it's not going well (as those who remember @david_herdson's prescient contribution on the eve of the 2017 election will attest).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    In an interview on Russian state TV on Sunday, Mr Putin said: "In general, all this fuss about additional arms supplies, in my opinion, has only one goal, to stretch the armed conflict as long as possible."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61697093

    By golly detective Putin, I think you've cracked this mystery. They don't want you to be able to win quickly and easily you say?

    We need to turn this argument around. Delivering weapons is about speeding up the end of the conflict. Not delivering weapons means years of internecine conflict from partisans who are not going to accept Russian occupation. It took 10 years to get them out of Afghanistan. Better to get them out of Ukraine in a few months.
    I'm thinking of all those irresponsible places who sought to stretch the armed conflict as long as possible by aiding Britain in the Battle of Britain.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    edited June 2022

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 815
    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Good thread on the increasingly febrile debate in Russia as it sinks in that the special operation is still a failure.

    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1533505067881533441

    War correspondents and bloggers more and more start attacking each other in their telegram exchanges once one of them decides to take the responsibility of saying things how they are, which by the way (the exchanges) are seen by hundreds and thousands if not millions of people, mostly Russians. Some are really off the hook. Just today when I posted the translation of the text by some “Murz” once again slamming the inhumane treatment of mobilised L/DPR men, I mentioned briefly the continuous pounces at him from his fellow “Z-bras”. He was verbally attacked by a number of very significant Russian telegram channels, including “Starshe Edd’y“, “Voenkor Kotyonok Z” – to the point where threats of physical violence are not uncommon anymore.

    It was fairly obvious it would be a failure after just a few weeks. You only had to be able to do some basic arithmetic to see that Russia was heading into a debacle that would make the Soviet-Afghan War look like a good idea.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    kle4 said:

    In an interview on Russian state TV on Sunday, Mr Putin said: "In general, all this fuss about additional arms supplies, in my opinion, has only one goal, to stretch the armed conflict as long as possible."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61697093

    By golly detective Putin, I think you've cracked this mystery. They don't want you to be able to win quickly and easily you say?

    We need to turn this argument around. Delivering weapons is about speeding up the end of the conflict. Not delivering weapons means years of internecine conflict from partisans who are not going to accept Russian occupation. It took 10 years to get them out of Afghanistan. Better to get them out of Ukraine in a few months.
    Now there's an opportunity for Putin. He can thwart those dastardly westerners who want to prolong the conflict. Just declare the Special Military Operation over, and ya-boo to Nato and the Nazi sympathisers.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    OK, wanker
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
    With respect Boris has trashed his own brand all by himself, and for the good of the conservative party and the country he must go and the sooner the better

    The conservative party with a new leader has a chance to reset the narrative and actually hold off Starmer and labour at GE24

    You only need to see how many on here have vowed to rejoin/support the party once Boris has gone and that could start within the next week

    Time for you to get behind removing Boris, and then the new conservative leader and PM ( as you will do in the end anyway)
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,695
    stodge said:

    Heathener said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    You have inside knowledge of Tiverton & Honiton to assert that? I ask because you attempted to flame me for making a forecast, although you have gone a lot further with predictions and timescales.

    You may be right but I am a little wary.

    @MarqueeMark has claimed the Conservative vote is holding up in Tiverton and he may be right though I've often found canvassing claims especially by those who are reporting favourable canvassing for their own party are about as reliable and useful as the Stodge Saturday Patent.

    It's far more interesting when those canvassing for a party report it's not going well (as those who remember @david_herdson's prescient contribution on the eve of the 2017 election will attest).
    Mind you I recall @NickPalmer reporting on Batley and Spen and it was his posts about how labour was doing that made me think labour had a chance there and they won.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    OK, wanker
    Ok boomer

    It doesn't really show you as very intelligent if you have to dismiss people with those terms, but unintelligent and stupid are others you hurl around.

    Have you always been this much of an angry person?

    Peace
    x
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave
    You confuse loyalty to the leader with loyalty to the country. Treason is the latter. When the leader is out of touch and consistently making bad decisions, as Thatcher was by the end of her reign, it is the job of those around them to either get them to improve or leave. Generally, such leaders, are not much interested in advice on how they could change or improve, so best to move them on.
    Taking out Thatcher or Boris could well be the wrong move. It could certainly be seen as disloyal by many in the party, perhaps even by some without it too.

    But treachery? They were not Emperor Boris or Empress Thatcher, they serve at the pleasure of the party, they are not owed eternal loyalty even if loyalists would argue they deserve more gratitude.

    Whether the party is making a mistake or not by taking those actions is a different matter to it being treacherous.

    I also find the seeming praise for Thatcher never forgiving her ousting very interesting. I seem to recall a lot of criticism about her predecessor never forgiving her for ousting him.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:
    So fucking what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    It would actually be very interesting if the threshold is reached and yet very few additional MPs vote against Boris when push comes to shove.

    Opponents are not going to get behind him just because he wins (he didn't when the same happened to May), but if it is overwhelming would that at least buy him some peace and quiet?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    About to catch up with the pageant. It has been a splendid 4 days hasn't it? Really something and I wouldn't have called myself much of a monarchist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave
    You confuse loyalty to the leader with loyalty to the country. Treason is the latter. When the leader is out of touch and consistently making bad decisions, as Thatcher was by the end of her reign, it is the job of those around them to either get them to improve or leave. Generally, such leaders, are not much interested in advice on how they could change or improve, so best to move them on.
    Taking out Thatcher or Boris could well be the wrong move. It could certainly be seen as disloyal by many in the party, perhaps even by some without it too.

    But treachery? They were not Emperor Boris or Empress Thatcher, they serve at the pleasure of the party, they are not owed eternal loyalty even if loyalists would argue they deserve more gratitude.

    Whether the party is making a mistake or not by taking those actions is a different matter to it being treacherous.

    I also find the seeming praise for Thatcher never forgiving her ousting very interesting. I seem to recall a lot of criticism about her predecessor never forgiving her for ousting him.
    Heath though did lose 3 out of 4 of the general elections he fought as Tory leader.

    Thatcher won all 3 general elections she fought as leader by contrast
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
    Boris isn't Thatcher. Boris isn't Blair. Circumstances are different.
    Extrapolating from two data points is crayola-level stupid. Especially when in one of those cases the party that ousted their leader won a majority the next election.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    ...
    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    The notion that American imperialism is more benign than the British version is an 'interesting' one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    I think the idea we're currently living under an American imperium is a nonsense.

    Sure, they are the dominant Western power, and act in their national interest accordingly, which sometimes is reflected in lopsided trade deals and alliances that reflect that, but it's not remotely comparable to what China is doing or wants to do.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    OK, wanker
    Ok boomer

    It doesn't really show you as very intelligent if you have to dismiss people with those terms, but unintelligent and stupid are others you hurl around.

    Have you always been this much of an angry person?

    Peace
    x
    Swearing is not, and has never been, evidence of stupidity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave
    You confuse loyalty to the leader with loyalty to the country. Treason is the latter. When the leader is out of touch and consistently making bad decisions, as Thatcher was by the end of her reign, it is the job of those around them to either get them to improve or leave. Generally, such leaders, are not much interested in advice on how they could change or improve, so best to move them on.
    Taking out Thatcher or Boris could well be the wrong move. It could certainly be seen as disloyal by many in the party, perhaps even by some without it too.

    But treachery? They were not Emperor Boris or Empress Thatcher, they serve at the pleasure of the party, they are not owed eternal loyalty even if loyalists would argue they deserve more gratitude.

    Whether the party is making a mistake or not by taking those actions is a different matter to it being treacherous.

    I also find the seeming praise for Thatcher never forgiving her ousting very interesting. I seem to recall a lot of criticism about her predecessor never forgiving her for ousting him.
    Heath though did lose 3 out of 4 of the general elections he fought as Tory leader.

    Thatcher won all 3 general elections she fought as leader by contrast
    Yes, but that factors into analyses of whether it was a mistake to oust a leader or not.

    But language is important - treachery implies something very morally wrong about an action, far beyond disloyal action.

    Put it this way - say Boris is ousted and Hunt takes over as leader (unlikely, but let's suppose). If his supporters then declared it was treachery to go against him (rather than merely disloyal), would that be ok?

    If it wouldn't be, why is it ok for Thatcher or Boris to regard attacks on their leadership as treachery?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
    Boris isn't Thatcher. Boris isn't Blair. Circumstances are different.
    Extrapolating from two data points is crayola-level stupid. Especially when in one of those cases the party that ousted their leader won a majority the next election.
    Quite so. Hyufd think would say: exploitative contempt for the peasantry worked a treat for your ancestors Louis I to XV inclusive, your Maj, why would anyone depart from the formula?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    I think the idea we're currently living under an American imperium is a nonsense.

    Sure, they are the dominant Western power, and act in their national interest accordingly, which sometimes is reflected in lopsided trade deals and alliances that reflect that, but it's not remotely comparable to what China is doing or wants to do.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    OK, wanker
    Ok boomer

    It doesn't really show you as very intelligent if you have to dismiss people with those terms, but unintelligent and stupid are others you hurl around.

    Have you always been this much of an angry person?

    Peace
    x
    Swearing is not, and has never been, evidence of stupidity.
    Only a complete and utter fucking ct would think it was
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    edited June 2022
    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    OK, wanker
    Ok boomer

    It doesn't really show you as very intelligent if you have to dismiss people with those terms, but unintelligent and stupid are others you hurl around.

    Have you always been this much of an angry person?

    Peace
    x
    Swearing is not, and has never been, evidence of stupidity.
    Just inarticulacy.

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,151
    Hope everyone enjoyed the Jubilee. We can focus on the letters next week 👍
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    So inflation down to 2% and the economy back on track by the end of the week.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    Bus pass round here is VERY useful. We don't all live where you do.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    OK, wanker
    Ok boomer

    It doesn't really show you as very intelligent if you have to dismiss people with those terms, but unintelligent and stupid are others you hurl around.

    Have you always been this much of an angry person?

    Peace
    x
    Swearing is not, and has never been, evidence of stupidity.
    Only a complete and utter fucking ct would think it was
    Sphericals, old boy, I say, what?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,727
    "I‘m getting people coming up to me and greeting me with that smile and the tilt of the head that’s usually reserved when your labrador puppy has just been run over."

    My piece as Tory MPs depart from the bunting and onto the bloodletting
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/05/tory-mps-spend-jubilee-weekend-placating-angry-voters-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Many Tories believe the threshold is reached or close to being reached. But there is believed to be some traffic in both directions. Some newer MPs are said to be nervous of acting too soon and are considering pushing to delay a confidence vote until after 23 June.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    Bus pass round here is VERY useful. We don't all live where you do.
    Well if you are a pensioner and have all the time in the world maybe....trying to get to work on time and a bus is a complete and utter non starter for most outside london
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Farooq said:

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    I think the idea we're currently living under an American imperium is a nonsense.

    Sure, they are the dominant Western power, and act in their national interest accordingly, which sometimes is reflected in lopsided trade deals and alliances that reflect that, but it's not remotely comparable to what China is doing or wants to do.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change
    So, you've posted me an article showing me the history of the US intervening in regime change over the last 200 years and that's supposed to be evidence of an American empire we live under today, is it?

    We (and they) both were interested in regime change in Iraq, Syria and Libya in just the last 10 years - and, although unofficial, we're both very interested in regime change away from Putin in Russia today.

    That's not "empire". It's foreign policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
    Boris isn't Thatcher. Boris isn't Blair. Circumstances are different.
    Extrapolating from two data points is crayola-level stupid. Especially when in one of those cases the party that ousted their leader won a majority the next election.
    Quite so. Hyufd think would say: exploitative contempt for the peasantry worked a treat for your ancestors Louis I to XV inclusive, your Maj, why would anyone depart from the formula?
    None of those monarchs were elected and they were effectively absolute not constitutional monarchs.

    My own personal view is that PMs who win general election majorities should be allowed to serve a full term and be judged again by the voters at the next general election not stabbed in the back by their own MPs
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 815
    darkage said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    ...the idea that people who identify as victims of domestic violence must always be believed. No one feels that they can disagree with it.
    Agreed that this is a very imperfect solution, though it could still be claimed that it is the least bad solution, given how intractable the problem is. I don't have enough knowledge of the specifics to know whether this is a reasonable claim, but I think (in agreement with your last paragraph) that any possible solutions will be messy and problematic, but that they might still be worth pursuing. Thanks for the reply.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    ...

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    The notion that American imperialism is more benign than the British version is an 'interesting' one.
    Show me a path to today's 21st Century world with its international rules-based order, and ascendancy of liberal democracy, that doesn't go through the British Empire please.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave
    You confuse loyalty to the leader with loyalty to the country. Treason is the latter. When the leader is out of touch and consistently making bad decisions, as Thatcher was by the end of her reign, it is the job of those around them to either get them to improve or leave. Generally, such leaders, are not much interested in advice on how they could change or improve, so best to move them on.
    You're forgetting. It is the role of the UK, incl the C of E, HMtQ, the Scouts, and the Wallingford Tiddlywinks Club, to sustain the Conservative Party forever. Not the other way round.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,695
    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    We have services being cut in the north east at the moment. Demand is down mainly due to people still working from home and they just don’t have the money to keep going at the current level.

    Cut prices you may get more people travelling off peak but you won’t replace the lost revenue or get people travelling who work from home. The govt would have to put a large chunk of cash in to fund it.

    Buses don’t tend to go to industrial estates either and certainly not at the times of start of morning shift or end of late shift.

    It’s a nice idea on paper. It wouldn’t work in practise and would really only benefit those already using buses

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,224
    Taz said:

    stodge said:

    Heathener said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    You have inside knowledge of Tiverton & Honiton to assert that? I ask because you attempted to flame me for making a forecast, although you have gone a lot further with predictions and timescales.

    You may be right but I am a little wary.

    @MarqueeMark has claimed the Conservative vote is holding up in Tiverton and he may be right though I've often found canvassing claims especially by those who are reporting favourable canvassing for their own party are about as reliable and useful as the Stodge Saturday Patent.

    It's far more interesting when those canvassing for a party report it's not going well (as those who remember @david_herdson's prescient contribution on the eve of the 2017 election will attest).
    Mind you I recall @NickPalmer reporting on Batley and Spen and it was his posts about how labour was doing that made me think labour had a chance there and they won.
    Depends a lot on who is doing the reporting. David H, Nick P and Marquee Mark all have good records.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    OK, wanker
    Ok boomer

    It doesn't really show you as very intelligent if you have to dismiss people with those terms, but unintelligent and stupid are others you hurl around.

    Have you always been this much of an angry person?

    Peace
    x
    Swearing is not, and has never been, evidence of stupidity.
    Just inarticulacy.

    Definitely not. Swearing can be a high art at times. To swear creatively is one of the crown jewels of rhetoric; it's a skill to be admired when you see it done well. A good swear can disable an opponent, disarm and audience, or diffuse a tense moment. To do it well requires memory to know what has gone before, a poetic reflex to know what words complement which others, and the self-confidence to deliver it knowing that you are definitely touching taboos and often escalating an argument.
    These things don't come easily to all.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,727
    “He’s toast. Everyone is tired of the drama. The only question is whether he manages to get through the election and to be able to get a bit longer in No 10 before we get rid of him. We won’t stand this shit forever.” https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/05/boris-johnson-allies-vote-of-no-confidence-conservative-party?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,394

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
    With respect Boris has trashed his own brand all by himself, and for the good of the conservative party and the country he must go and the sooner the better

    The conservative party with a new leader has a chance to reset the narrative and actually hold off Starmer and labour at GE24

    You only need to see how many on here have vowed to rejoin/support the party once Boris has gone and that could start within the next week

    Time for you to get behind removing Boris, and then the new conservative leader and PM ( as you will do in the end anyway)
    Thatcher/Boris comparisons are way out.

    Mrs Thatcher was removed due to a combination of a very bad policy - the poll tax - and divisions over Europe.

    With Boris it's purely down to his personal failings and a now overwhelming sense that he is unfit to be PM.

    The only thing they have in common is the prospect of a terrible election outcome - probably much worse with Boris than Thatcher, because she at least was, personally, held in respect.

    Getting rid of Boris will not have the damaging repercussions that removing Mrs T had, because the motive isn't political. There is no band of Boris loyalists to hold the light for him and his policies. No-one is "betraying" him. He's betrayed himself.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
    Boris isn't Thatcher. Boris isn't Blair. Circumstances are different.
    Extrapolating from two data points is crayola-level stupid. Especially when in one of those cases the party that ousted their leader won a majority the next election.
    Quite so. Hyufd think would say: exploitative contempt for the peasantry worked a treat for your ancestors Louis I to XV inclusive, your Maj, why would anyone depart from the formula?
    None of those monarchs were elected and they were effectively absolute not constitutional monarchs.

    My own personal view is that PMs who win general election majorities should be allowed to serve a full term and be judged again by the voters at the next general election not stabbed in the back by their own MPs
    "Full term" as defined by those self-same PMs? Pull the other one, it's got jellyfish and barnacles on in the form of Tory MPs.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    maxh said:

    darkage said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    ...the idea that people who identify as victims of domestic violence must always be believed. No one feels that they can disagree with it.
    Agreed that this is a very imperfect solution, though it could still be claimed that it is the least bad solution, given how intractable the problem is. I don't have enough knowledge of the specifics to know whether this is a reasonable claim, but I think (in agreement with your last paragraph) that any possible solutions will be messy and problematic, but that they might still be worth pursuing. Thanks for the reply.

    The moment you make it victims must be believed...you open the door to people claiming to be victims to hit back at people because they fell out. It is absolutely the worst situation.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,812
    Scott_xP said:

    "I‘m getting people coming up to me and greeting me with that smile and the tilt of the head that’s usually reserved when your labrador puppy has just been run over."

    My piece as Tory MPs depart from the bunting and onto the bloodletting
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/05/tory-mps-spend-jubilee-weekend-placating-angry-voters-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Many Tories believe the threshold is reached or close to being reached. But there is believed to be some traffic in both directions. Some newer MPs are said to be nervous of acting too soon and are considering pushing to delay a confidence vote until after 23 June.

    Ffs just get on with it you ridiculous spineless pussies. Its the easiest quandary you'll ever face. He is done. There is no way back for him. None. Nada. Zilch. Zip.
    Grow a set and be rid of him. You'll feel instant relief.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341
    stodge said:

    Heathener said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    You have inside knowledge of Tiverton & Honiton to assert that? I ask because you attempted to flame me for making a forecast, although you have gone a lot further with predictions and timescales.

    You may be right but I am a little wary.

    @MarqueeMark has claimed the Conservative vote is holding up in Tiverton and he may be right though I've often found canvassing claims especially by those who are reporting favourable canvassing for their own party are about as reliable and useful as the Stodge Saturday Patent.

    It's far more interesting when those canvassing for a party report it's not going well (as those who remember @david_herdson's prescient contribution on the eve of the 2017 election will attest).
    Tories to win T and H is possible but not probable. Two reasons: they might anyway, because of the huge swing required and demography. Secondly because by the time of the election there is a X% chance that we will know that Boris is ousted. That chance is maybe about 25%.

    if this happens it greatly increases the chance of holding T and H.

    Wm Hills 9/2 on Tories to win T and H with Lab to win Wakefield has a bit of value. I don't think that price truly reflects the chance of Boris being ousted soon. (Wakefield goes Labour come what may IMHO, so its a free bit on the bet).

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    Bus pass round here is VERY useful. We don't all live where you do.
    Well if you are a pensioner and have all the time in the world maybe....trying to get to work on time and a bus is a complete and utter non starter for most outside london
    The Lothian Buses are generally very useful. Seriously so.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    I think the idea we're currently living under an American imperium is a nonsense.

    Sure, they are the dominant Western power, and act in their national interest accordingly, which sometimes is reflected in lopsided trade deals and alliances that reflect that, but it's not remotely comparable to what China is doing or wants to do.
    In Empire, you only need to plant the flag when threatened by other powers. If everything you want can be achieved without the expenditure of annexing and garrisoning a territory, it's by far the better way of doing it. There are (apparently) 24,000 US military personnel in the UK. They know everything we know, and they appear to have a veto over our foreign policy, and there's more than a suggestion that they also meddle extensively in our domestic politics. All that without planting an American flag.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    No doubt pb.com can answer this.

    What is the etymology of HYUFD ?

    It looks like a collection of scrabble tiles you are left with near the end of the game.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    Part of me thinks, what a great outcome for all that would be. Then reality bites and I believe we just need to get rid of this dangerous and incompetent clown as soon as possible.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415


    No doubt pb.com can answer this.

    What is the etymology of HYUFD ?

    It looks like a collection of scrabble tiles you are left with near the end of the game.

    so does your name!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    No doubt pb.com can answer this.

    What is the etymology of HYUFD ?

    It looks like a collection of scrabble tiles you are left with near the end of the game.

    so does your name!
    Hyufd almost looks as though it could be a real Welsh word ... but it is not a word in any language, I think.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    Bus pass round here is VERY useful. We don't all live where you do.
    Well if you are a pensioner and have all the time in the world maybe....trying to get to work on time and a bus is a complete and utter non starter for most outside london
    The Lothian Buses are generally very useful. Seriously so.
    Yes to you because you are retired.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    I think the idea we're currently living under an American imperium is a nonsense.

    Sure, they are the dominant Western power, and act in their national interest accordingly, which sometimes is reflected in lopsided trade deals and alliances that reflect that, but it's not remotely comparable to what China is doing or wants to do.
    In Empire, you only need to plant the flag when threatened by other powers. If everything you want can be achieved without the expenditure of annexing and garrisoning a territory, it's by far the better way of doing it. There are (apparently) 24,000 US military personnel in the UK. They know everything we know, and they appear to have a veto over our foreign policy, and there's more than a suggestion that they also meddle extensively in our domestic politics. All that without planting an American flag.
    Also worth inquiring into the supposed indepdence of the UK nocular deterrent. I've been to see HMS Conqueror in Plymouth Dockyard (a nuclear submarine, for those who don't know; now out of service and preserv ed there). We were not allowed into the entire stern half (more or less) as that was US tech and still top secret about 50 years on. Trident is no better.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    On the other hand, trying to find a parking spot in some places is the kind of torture that makes you want to rip off your own eyelids.

    Driving is great as long as every other cnt isn't going to the same place.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fuck Wales, they are Putin's little helpers.

    Ukraine at the world cup would have made sure Putin's atrocities are not forgotten later on this year as the whole world watched.

    Zelensky clearly not taking it personally, he has just tweeted congratulations to the Queen on her Platinum Jubilee

    https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085?s=20&t=tew3jQia9C4gIwSCG1E4Lw
    Boy, talk about holding a grudge in the replies

    Been oppressing Ireland for 800 years thanks for the support…

    Good thing the government of Ireland is more nuanced.
    an insecure and obsessive wanker
    You dish out these terms, and similar, rather too readily imho
    OK, wanker
    Ok boomer

    It doesn't really show you as very intelligent if you have to dismiss people with those terms, but unintelligent and stupid are others you hurl around.

    Have you always been this much of an angry person?

    Peace
    x
    Swearing is not, and has never been, evidence of stupidity.
    Just inarticulacy.

    Definitely not. Swearing can be a high art at times. To swear creatively is one of the crown jewels of rhetoric; it's a skill to be admired when you see it done well. A good swear can disable an opponent, disarm and audience, or diffuse a tense moment. To do it well requires memory to know what has gone before, a poetic reflex to know what words complement which others, and the self-confidence to deliver it knowing that you are definitely touching taboos and often escalating an argument.
    These things don't come easily to all.
    It might be acceptable as a substitute for prolixity. But it's just one inadequacy covering another.

  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,394
    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Heathener said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    You have inside knowledge of Tiverton & Honiton to assert that? I ask because you attempted to flame me for making a forecast, although you have gone a lot further with predictions and timescales.

    You may be right but I am a little wary.

    @MarqueeMark has claimed the Conservative vote is holding up in Tiverton and he may be right though I've often found canvassing claims especially by those who are reporting favourable canvassing for their own party are about as reliable and useful as the Stodge Saturday Patent.

    It's far more interesting when those canvassing for a party report it's not going well (as those who remember @david_herdson's prescient contribution on the eve of the 2017 election will attest).
    Tories to win T and H is possible but not probable. Two reasons: they might anyway, because of the huge swing required and demography. Secondly because by the time of the election there is a X% chance that we will know that Boris is ousted. That chance is maybe about 25%.

    if this happens it greatly increases the chance of holding T and H.

    Wm Hills 9/2 on Tories to win T and H with Lab to win Wakefield has a bit of value. I don't think that price truly reflects the chance of Boris being ousted soon. (Wakefield goes Labour come what may IMHO, so its a free bit on the bet).

    There is no chance whatsoever that the Tories will even be close in Tiverton & Honiton. The two by-elections will be car-crashes.

    It needs to be stated - the public does not necessarily resile, per se, from the Conservative Govt. It has a defensible record and the alternative is uninspiring. But it has had it with Boris. And the ship will go down with the captain if he's not removed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    Bus pass round here is VERY useful. We don't all live where you do.
    Well if you are a pensioner and have all the time in the world maybe....trying to get to work on time and a bus is a complete and utter non starter for most outside london
    The Lothian Buses are generally very useful. Seriously so.
    Yes to you because you are retired.
    No; I used them very heavily when I was working, and my colleagues who still do also use them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    ...

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    The notion that American imperialism is more benign than the British version is an 'interesting' one.
    Show me a path to today's 21st Century world with its international rules-based order, and ascendancy of liberal democracy, that doesn't go through the British Empire please.
    I think you misunderstood my point.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,434


    No doubt pb.com can answer this.

    What is the etymology of HYUFD ?

    It looks like a collection of scrabble tiles you are left with near the end of the game.

    Cat on a keyboard is my guess.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    Bus pass round here is VERY useful. We don't all live where you do.
    Well if you are a pensioner and have all the time in the world maybe....trying to get to work on time and a bus is a complete and utter non starter for most outside london
    The Lothian Buses are generally very useful. Seriously so.
    Yes to you because you are retired.
    No; I used them very heavily when I was working, and my colleagues who still do also use them.
    Well then your experience isn't that of most of the country is all I can say. For most of us bus is the option to take when hitchhiking has been ruled out
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ...

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    The notion that American imperialism is more benign than the British version is an 'interesting' one.
    Show me a path to today's 21st Century world with its international rules-based order, and ascendancy of liberal democracy, that doesn't go through the British Empire please.
    The slave trade doesn't count, do you hear, because it happened to BLACK PEOPLE. Phew. Because if it had been whiteys we'd have to face the fact that it was up there with the holocaust as an atrocity, on many measures (% of humanity at the time who were victims, multi generation knock on effects) very arguably worse.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
    You have that the wrong way round. The elections were not lost because the leaders were deposed, but rather the leaders were deposed because the elections were thought lost otherwise. Correctly by the Tories, and fairly near correct by Labour, with the GFC getting in the way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    WTF is happening in Peschiera del Garda?

    Weird
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.

    Really painful.

    Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?

    A sixth of that increase is directly going to HMRC as VAT as windfall government income, so those who say the government can do nothing are wrong. That money should be recycled back to the poorest third or so, not just the poorest ten per cent. It should not be done by age, or extra given to those who own loads of houses.
    The German Federal government are seemingly massively reducing fuel duty and making local public transport effectively free for the summer...

    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/0601/1302509-germany/?fbclid=IwAR2kbvH83d5vWlu5CdsC6yRjhmcKD64q_4vXWcOapvdUqWD-99o8ql7VSkM
    That's the sort of creative thinking Labour should be doing. Really cheap or free public transport (buses especially - trains may not cope with the demand) - provide incentives to get people out of their cars, saving them money and moving towards green targets. Such policies were hugely popular in, for example, Sheffield and London in my youth.
    You can make buses free people still wont use them because they take too long and dont go door to door and rarely even where people want to go. Waste of fucking time and money
    Bus pass round here is VERY useful. We don't all live where you do.
    Well if you are a pensioner and have all the time in the world maybe....trying to get to work on time and a bus is a complete and utter non starter for most outside london
    The Lothian Buses are generally very useful. Seriously so.
    Yes to you because you are retired.
    No; I used them very heavily when I was working, and my colleagues who still do also use them.
    Well then your experience isn't that of most of the country is all I can say. For most of us bus is the option to take when hitchhiking has been ruled out
    Well, all I can say is that much of England really ****ed up when it went for bus privatisation. The Lothian councils still own Lothian Buses and give a - not perfect, but pretty useful service.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the end of this coming week Labour may find that Johnson has survived a VONC, but only just, limping on as a lame duck PM and about to face the voters of two by-elections.

    Good times for the Opposition.

    At the end of this coming week Labour will find that Johnson has lost a VONC, departing as PM and Labour and the LibDems about to face the voters of two by-elections with their fox shot.....
    Or we lose our greatest election winner since Thatcher and spend a generation in opposition, perhaps deservedly so.

    After all we lost 3 out of 4 of the general elections following the ousting of PM Thatcher by her own MPs, an act of treachery she certainly never forgave.

    Labour too lost all 4 general elections after effectively forcing Blair out earlier than he wanted in favour of Brown
    Boris isn't Thatcher. Boris isn't Blair. Circumstances are different.
    Extrapolating from two data points is crayola-level stupid. Especially when in one of those cases the party that ousted their leader won a majority the next election.
    Quite so. Hyufd think would say: exploitative contempt for the peasantry worked a treat for your ancestors Louis I to XV inclusive, your Maj, why would anyone depart from the formula?
    None of those monarchs were elected and they were effectively absolute not constitutional monarchs.

    My own personal view is that PMs who win general election majorities should be allowed to serve a full term and be judged again by the voters at the next general election not stabbed in the back by their own MPs
    That is a licence for a PM to do anything they want no matter how damaging to his mps and the country

    A PM elected with a majority is not free to behave in a callous, thoughtless, dishonest manner and expect there will not be any consequences and Boris is no exception
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 815

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    maxh said:

    OT: (I value reading the comments on PB because most of you are of a different political hue than me. I'm interested in debating what I write below, particularly if you disagree with it. If you're not interested and frustrated that it's off-topic and non-betting-related, apologies.)

    I've just finished Natasha Brown's excellent short novel Assembly - thoroughly recommended.

    My reading of Brown's novel is that it is about the near impossibility of forming (assembling) a coherent identity as a young black woman. To my mind it is very persuasive - the book is very short but laced with examples where the protagonist has to self-censor her thoughts and views in order to assimilate into a culture that has been largely created by white men and that resists discussing a significant historical aspect of its creation (imperialism).

    I recognise that the process of assimilation into a shared culture requires everyone to self-censor somewhat, but I am persuaded by the argument that, at the intersection of specific groups (women and black people, for example) the need for self-censorship is particularly acute, and therefore damaging to one's social- and self-identity.

    I'm really interested in the responses of those of you who would describe this thinking as woke and so dismiss it. Putting aside the disingenuous elements of the usage of woke (i.e. encouraging a culture war), for those of you who write on here about wokeness as an ideology, what is it that you disagree with in the above? And what reaction do you think individuals, society and government in UK (and elsewhere) should have to such strong feelings of alienation and self-censorship amongst a a significant proportion of that society's members?

    Don't especially disagree with any of this, which is partly true of any individual in a dissonant or liminal situation. Reflect on what a proportion of interesting and challenging literature (and other achievements) of the last 100 years is done by people who are exiles, refugees, dislocated, minority etc.

    Self-censorship is normal to a civilized community, and universal. However taken beyond a certain point it is damaging rather than essential. But in our world is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored.

    But one neglected issue is this. A friend of mine's late wife was a member of a particular marginal identity in India who regarded the Indian state as it now is as the occupying imperial power. This is one personal example of a global fact. Imperial history is the norm not the exception, at virtually all times and places. Reflect upon the Greeks, Macedonians, Persians, Romans, the history of Ukraine, China etc, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Russians etc.

    The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone. A think we need an agenda of more genuine diversity and inclusion, but hesitate to think we shall get one.

    Thanks for the considered reply @algarkirk.

    "...is it not standing up in favour of imperialism that is more marginalised and self-censored." Yes, imo. However, as a generalisation I doubt that the person who is self-censoring in this way is needing to do so as broadly or as often as many young black women. What I took from the book is how a constant need to assimilate wears one down. (I do think there are parallels with those who saw their communities changing around them in the last 40 years and saw no choice but to assimilate into the new orthodoxy of globalisation, and were similarly worn down).

    "The odd time is ours when the imperial past is questioned and critically appraised and assumed to be both bad and gone." Completely agree, and with your previous paragraph. To me the interesting question at the heart of it (and imo one of the genuine dividing lines between progressives and conservatives), is whether we are capable of genuine social progress globally, such that imperialism can be beaten back permanently, or whether we are just in a brief period of more benign (American-led) imperialism that we should hang on to for as long as we can before we get the Chinese version, that is likely less benign.
    I think the idea we're currently living under an American imperium is a nonsense.

    Sure, they are the dominant Western power, and act in their national interest accordingly, which sometimes is reflected in lopsided trade deals and alliances that reflect that, but it's not remotely comparable to what China is doing or wants to do.

    The notion that American imperialism is more benign than the British version is an 'interesting' one.

    I'm enjoying the contrasting views. @Casino_Royale I agree and was using a lazy trope which you're right to call out, notwithstanding @Farooq's interesting article (thanks). Whatever America has done over the past couple of hundred years, it is not empire as we would know the term, nor is it, I think, as overt as what China is likely to do in the coming hundred years. I would argue it has probably had as much influence on the world as it is today as Britain's empire, though.

    @Luckyguy1983 I wasn't actually directly comparing the two (I was comparing America's not-quite-imperialism with a future Chinese version).
This discussion has been closed.