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If Johnson`s ousted the by-elections could be CON holds – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2022 in General
imageIf Johnson`s ousted the by-elections could be CON holds – politicalbetting.com

I have just been rethinking my betting on the June 23rd by elections because there must be a possibility now that Johnson isn’t going to survive. Without him at the helm then the whole Tory proposition will be different and we cannot rule out a boost for the party in the polls.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086
    edited May 2022
    First?

    Currently annoyed because my keyboard has lost one of its little legs and I can't find it.

    It's like Long John Sunak.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Doesn't the whole process take a bit longer than a month ?

    With a new leader (Which looks unlikely to me) perhaps, but can't see the Tories picking up many votes in the middle of a leadership campaign with marches for Leadsom Liz Truss going on in and around parliament.

    FPT - Sunak shortening (arf). I backed him at 16.0 with Betfair, he's currently 14/15.5 so not much doing other than a smidgen there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Chances are Johnson would still be PM on 23rd June even if there was a VONC straight after recess. The tory membership have to vote on the two candidates put forward to them and that will take all summer. Johnson remains PM unless he agrees to resign immediately and then someone who is not running would be asked to be caretaker by her Majesty. In theory it would be Raab as Deputy, although this is a grey area and if he throws his hat into the ring then definitely not.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2022
    If a General Election takes place, then Tiverton is a CON HOLD (Wakefield is a close betting marginal), I'd expect Smarkets to void both BE markets though in this case.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Most of the by-election campaign will be over by the time the VONC takes place. May even be after postal ballots have gone out and been sent back in.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Chances are Johnson would still be PM on 23rd June even if there was a VONC straight after recess. The tory membership have to vote on the two candidates put forward to them and that will take all summer. Johnson remains PM unless he agrees to resign immediately and then someone who is not running would be asked to be caretaker by her Majesty. In theory it would be Raab as Deputy, although this is a grey area and if he throws his hat into the ring then definitely not.

    "All summer" is an exaggeration, although based on the 2019 timetable it would go past the by-elections.

    That said, the previous time was much quicker.

    From Wiki: The 2019 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when Theresa May announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as Leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom once a successor had been elected. Nominations opened on 10 June; 10 candidates were nominated. The first ballot of Members of Parliament (MPs) took place on 13 June, with exhaustive ballots of MPs also taking place on 18, 19 and 20 June, reducing the candidates to two. The general membership of the party elected the leader by postal ballot with the result announced on 23 July, with Boris Johnson being elected with almost twice as many votes as his opponent Jeremy Hunt.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770
    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    You are so cynical. Next you will be suggesting that Mike has a financial interest in Boris's departure 😲
  • TresTres Posts: 2,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    if they were gonna do anything they'd have done it months ago.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    Would Lib Dem pleading for Tory MPs to sack their leader will make Tories more or less likely to do so?

    Is there an element of reverse psychology playing out?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Pulpstar said:

    If a General Election takes place, then Tiverton is a CON HOLD (Wakefield is a close betting marginal), I'd expect Smarkets to void both BE markets though in this case.

    Really, that would be ridiculous. Surely the potential for a change of leadership and the consequences that follower are things that all punters have to factor in to their calculations.
  • Applicant said:

    Chances are Johnson would still be PM on 23rd June even if there was a VONC straight after recess. The tory membership have to vote on the two candidates put forward to them and that will take all summer. Johnson remains PM unless he agrees to resign immediately and then someone who is not running would be asked to be caretaker by her Majesty. In theory it would be Raab as Deputy, although this is a grey area and if he throws his hat into the ring then definitely not.

    "All summer" is an exaggeration, although based on the 2019 timetable it would go past the by-elections.

    That said, the previous time was much quicker.

    From Wiki: The 2019 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when Theresa May announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as Leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom once a successor had been elected. Nominations opened on 10 June; 10 candidates were nominated. The first ballot of Members of Parliament (MPs) took place on 13 June, with exhaustive ballots of MPs also taking place on 18, 19 and 20 June, reducing the candidates to two. The general membership of the party elected the leader by postal ballot with the result announced on 23 July, with Boris Johnson being elected with almost twice as many votes as his opponent Jeremy Hunt.
    With the Jubilee recess dragging out the earliest possible trigger into June now, you'd be looking at least August realistically now on the same timetable.

    So yeah, all of summer actually seems increasingly feasible, if we add on time for a VONC and recess etc
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Thanks @Big_G_NorthWales and others for flagging up the positive response to Sunak's 'not a windfall tax' and the betting implications. Bought yesterday, sold today for a nice profit whatever happens (I don't particularly see Sunak as next leader, although he has a chance if Johnson is forced out quickly).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    Pulpstar said:

    Doesn't the whole process take a bit longer than a month ?

    With a new leader (Which looks unlikely to me) perhaps, but can't see the Tories picking up many votes in the middle of a leadership campaign with marches for Leadsom Liz Truss going on in and around parliament.

    FPT - Sunak shortening (arf). I backed him at 16.0 with Betfair, he's currently 14/15.5 so not much doing other than a smidgen there.

    David Cameron announced his retirement on June 24th and Theresa May became Tory leader on the 11th of July, and Prime Minister on the 13th of July.

    Can take fewer than three weeks in the right circumstances.
  • tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If a General Election takes place, then Tiverton is a CON HOLD (Wakefield is a close betting marginal), I'd expect Smarkets to void both BE markets though in this case.

    Really, that would be ridiculous. Surely the potential for a change of leadership and the consequences that follower are things that all punters have to factor in to their calculations.
    A change of leadership is something punters have to factor in.

    A General Election voids the by-election, so by-election bets must be voided. If a GE is called, all pending by-elections (and therefore bets) are voided and a GE occurs instead of a by-election.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,493
    FPT, shamelessly plundering Dura's expertise.
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A bright sunny morning here in N Essex.

    Surely, if the Conservatives had lost enough seats to only be 'able' to form a Minority Government, it's quite likely that the current PM would have lost his own.

    The Portillo moment of all Portillo moments!

    And yes I know no sitting PM has ever lost their set in UK, but there's always a first time!

    My guess remains that Boris will retire before the next election, especially if (as now) he looks like losing. That said, I am less certain than I used to be, but if Boris does want to get rich enough to afford his own wallpaper, he cannot leave it too late.
    Why? He could get a million quid book advance today if that's what he wanted. According to my wife's friend who is something in publishing but drives an Evoque so there is a question mark over her mental capacity.
    Hey Dura, now I'm doing no mileage at all and it looks like that'll be the case for the foreseeable, I'm thinking about spending somewhere between £15k-£20k on a late model L322. Low mileage as I can get. Prepared to spend the money keeping it in good nick when something goes wrong, but intend to service it myself.

    I know it's not the most sane thing to do in the world, but I'm thinking sod it, why not?

    I'd be interested in your opinion...
    The L322 is the one with two complete wiring looms - E65 BMW 7 Series and JLR's own loosely connected together with West Midlands hopes and dreams. They are very complex and have a hideous reputation for unreliability. The diesels are slower than Mark Francois running in Crocs, the petrol ones are thirstier than Therese Coffey and they all rust.

    I personally wouldn't but don't let that stop you, if that's what you want. I've bought plenty of completely insane cars in my time. Just resign yourself to the fact that you'll be spending every night on eBay looking for bits and every weekend under it.
    Haha cheers, I thought you'd say something like that! If I get one it'll be the 4.4 diesel with the 8 speed box. Will look at remapping it but I'm not too concerned about speed. It'll be a glorified dog car really, with room to take all the crap to the tip my missus somehow accumulates every few months.

    There's a really good independent specialist a few miles away I suspect I would become very friendly with.

    If you block the EGR will it still pass an MOT?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    FPT
    JohnO said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cabinet discontent over Rishi Sunak tax & spending:

    * Kwasi Kwarteng remains opposed to windfall tax

    * Rees-Mogg thinks money should be raised elsewhere

    * Cab ministers fear Tories won’t get credit & there will be demands for more spending


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe3f2e8-dd38-11ec-8de3-573a6521e09e?shareToken=093ce00be2047e05639ccc29c7e883bd

    One Tory MP tells me that colleagues slagging off today's bailout package are "ideological nut jobs living in a fantasy world".

    Adds: "They should spend less time at the Adam Smith Institute and more time down at Lidl."

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1529880745166118912

    FFS, the Tory party is now the party of LIDL shoppers?

    We should be the party of Fortnum & Mason shoppers and at worst the party of Waitrose shoppers.
    Trembles....Please sir, I've just returned from Lidl.

    (But I did also pop into Waitrose and used my £8 off voucher if I spent £40.

    Can I at least be a nominal Tory?
    So long as you don't shop exclusively at LIDL then that's fine.
  • FPT

    JohnO said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cabinet discontent over Rishi Sunak tax & spending:

    * Kwasi Kwarteng remains opposed to windfall tax

    * Rees-Mogg thinks money should be raised elsewhere

    * Cab ministers fear Tories won’t get credit & there will be demands for more spending


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe3f2e8-dd38-11ec-8de3-573a6521e09e?shareToken=093ce00be2047e05639ccc29c7e883bd

    One Tory MP tells me that colleagues slagging off today's bailout package are "ideological nut jobs living in a fantasy world".

    Adds: "They should spend less time at the Adam Smith Institute and more time down at Lidl."

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1529880745166118912

    FFS, the Tory party is now the party of LIDL shoppers?

    We should be the party of Fortnum & Mason shoppers and at worst the party of Waitrose shoppers.
    Trembles....Please sir, I've just returned from Lidl.

    (But I did also pop into Waitrose and used my £8 off voucher if I spent £40.

    Can I at least be a nominal Tory?
    So long as you don't shop exclusively at LIDL then that's fine.
    So you need to at least mix some Aldi in?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If a General Election takes place, then Tiverton is a CON HOLD (Wakefield is a close betting marginal), I'd expect Smarkets to void both BE markets though in this case.

    Really, that would be ridiculous. Surely the potential for a change of leadership and the consequences that follower are things that all punters have to factor in to their calculations.
    I'm going from previous experience. Manchester Gorton was voided on Betfair when the 2017 election came about. I was greened on that one and lost out.

    One of the interesting facets of a voided market on an exchange is that if you're greened up then you win whether the bet wins or loses but not if the market voids. Happy days if you're redded though.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    You are so cynical. Next you will be suggesting that Mike has a financial interest in Boris's departure 😲
    I don't
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968

    FPT

    JohnO said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cabinet discontent over Rishi Sunak tax & spending:

    * Kwasi Kwarteng remains opposed to windfall tax

    * Rees-Mogg thinks money should be raised elsewhere

    * Cab ministers fear Tories won’t get credit & there will be demands for more spending


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe3f2e8-dd38-11ec-8de3-573a6521e09e?shareToken=093ce00be2047e05639ccc29c7e883bd

    One Tory MP tells me that colleagues slagging off today's bailout package are "ideological nut jobs living in a fantasy world".

    Adds: "They should spend less time at the Adam Smith Institute and more time down at Lidl."

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1529880745166118912

    FFS, the Tory party is now the party of LIDL shoppers?

    We should be the party of Fortnum & Mason shoppers and at worst the party of Waitrose shoppers.
    Trembles....Please sir, I've just returned from Lidl.

    (But I did also pop into Waitrose and used my £8 off voucher if I spent £40.

    Can I at least be a nominal Tory?
    So long as you don't shop exclusively at LIDL then that's fine.
    So you need to at least mix some Aldi in?
    God no, you need to reject these European supermarkets and go British.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089

    Pulpstar said:

    Doesn't the whole process take a bit longer than a month ?

    With a new leader (Which looks unlikely to me) perhaps, but can't see the Tories picking up many votes in the middle of a leadership campaign with marches for Leadsom Liz Truss going on in and around parliament.

    FPT - Sunak shortening (arf). I backed him at 16.0 with Betfair, he's currently 14/15.5 so not much doing other than a smidgen there.

    David Cameron announced his retirement on June 24th and Theresa May became Tory leader on the 11th of July, and Prime Minister on the 13th of July.

    Can take fewer than three weeks in the right circumstances.
    This is an interesting factor - will the MPs *want* to put a choice to the members, or will they want to choose themselves behind closed doors?
  • FPT

    JohnO said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cabinet discontent over Rishi Sunak tax & spending:

    * Kwasi Kwarteng remains opposed to windfall tax

    * Rees-Mogg thinks money should be raised elsewhere

    * Cab ministers fear Tories won’t get credit & there will be demands for more spending


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe3f2e8-dd38-11ec-8de3-573a6521e09e?shareToken=093ce00be2047e05639ccc29c7e883bd

    One Tory MP tells me that colleagues slagging off today's bailout package are "ideological nut jobs living in a fantasy world".

    Adds: "They should spend less time at the Adam Smith Institute and more time down at Lidl."

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1529880745166118912

    FFS, the Tory party is now the party of LIDL shoppers?

    We should be the party of Fortnum & Mason shoppers and at worst the party of Waitrose shoppers.
    Trembles....Please sir, I've just returned from Lidl.

    (But I did also pop into Waitrose and used my £8 off voucher if I spent £40.

    Can I at least be a nominal Tory?
    So long as you don't shop exclusively at LIDL then that's fine.
    So you need to at least mix some Aldi in?
    God no, you need to reject these European supermarkets and go British.
    Though at my local Aldi there's enough union flags, even when there's no Jubilee, to send half our Scottish Nationalists into fits of apoplexy.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    Would Lib Dem pleading for Tory MPs to sack their leader will make Tories more or less likely to do so?

    Is there an element of reverse psychology playing out?
    I think you might have generously shared your insights with the LibDem leadership in previous incarnations. You were very vocal between 2016 and 2017!

    FWIW - I think Johnson would just about hold on at the next election in 2024. None of the potential replacements have any appeal at all outside the activist base. And none have the brio to pull off a move to run against their party's record - or to bring the disgruntled europhiles back into the big tent.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 2022

    Applicant said:

    Chances are Johnson would still be PM on 23rd June even if there was a VONC straight after recess. The tory membership have to vote on the two candidates put forward to them and that will take all summer. Johnson remains PM unless he agrees to resign immediately and then someone who is not running would be asked to be caretaker by her Majesty. In theory it would be Raab as Deputy, although this is a grey area and if he throws his hat into the ring then definitely not.

    "All summer" is an exaggeration, although based on the 2019 timetable it would go past the by-elections.

    That said, the previous time was much quicker.

    From Wiki: The 2019 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when Theresa May announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as Leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom once a successor had been elected. Nominations opened on 10 June; 10 candidates were nominated. The first ballot of Members of Parliament (MPs) took place on 13 June, with exhaustive ballots of MPs also taking place on 18, 19 and 20 June, reducing the candidates to two. The general membership of the party elected the leader by postal ballot with the result announced on 23 July, with Boris Johnson being elected with almost twice as many votes as his opponent Jeremy Hunt.
    With the Jubilee recess dragging out the earliest possible trigger into June now, you'd be looking at least August realistically now on the same timetable.

    So yeah, all of summer actually seems increasingly feasible, if we add on time for a VONC and recess etc
    The House returns on the 6th June and if Brady has the letters by that date, the vote would be on 7th June so the earliest timetable exactly matches the timetable of last time.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    How much of a big deal do people think the Jubilee celebrations will be?

    It's possible that they will act to draw a line under the whole affair, a forgiveness of past sins, and a fresh start.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If a General Election takes place, then Tiverton is a CON HOLD (Wakefield is a close betting marginal), I'd expect Smarkets to void both BE markets though in this case.

    Really, that would be ridiculous. Surely the potential for a change of leadership and the consequences that follower are things that all punters have to factor in to their calculations.
    If there's a general election called then the by-elections don't get held. I can't see how anything but voiding could happen.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Pulpstar said:

    Doesn't the whole process take a bit longer than a month ?

    With a new leader (Which looks unlikely to me) perhaps, but can't see the Tories picking up many votes in the middle of a leadership campaign with marches for Leadsom Liz Truss going on in and around parliament.

    FPT - Sunak shortening (arf). I backed him at 16.0 with Betfair, he's currently 14/15.5 so not much doing other than a smidgen there.

    Bit more movement on Smarkets (not much help to you, unless you're happy to tie the money up by selling on smarkets what you bought on BF)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    edited May 2022
    I agree they would get a bounce.
    One of the problems is though, an argument may break out.
    What is the point of the Tory Party?
    You knew under Cameron. Austerity and social liberalism. May. Brexit means Brexit. Bo Jo Get Brexit Done.
    New leader? Could be almost anything really.
    Think this is an underappreciated factor in the inertia.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Chances are Johnson would still be PM on 23rd June even if there was a VONC straight after recess. The tory membership have to vote on the two candidates put forward to them and that will take all summer. Johnson remains PM unless he agrees to resign immediately and then someone who is not running would be asked to be caretaker by her Majesty. In theory it would be Raab as Deputy, although this is a grey area and if he throws his hat into the ring then definitely not.

    But if he is gone, it removes the need for the voters to express their opinion on him, and look at the candidates in front of them. And the Tories look to have a very well respected local candidate. And a woman - unlike the LibDems.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 2022
    Keystone said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    Would Lib Dem pleading for Tory MPs to sack their leader will make Tories more or less likely to do so?

    Is there an element of reverse psychology playing out?
    I think you might have generously shared your insights with the LibDem leadership in previous incarnations. You were very vocal between 2016 and 2017!

    FWIW - I think Johnson would just about hold on at the next election in 2024. None of the potential replacements have any appeal at all outside the activist base. And none have the brio to pull off a move to run against their party's record - or to bring the disgruntled europhiles back into the big tent.
    What makes the call so difficult for Tory MPs is that amongst potential Tory leaders, Boris has simultaneously the highest ceiling and the lowest floor at the next election.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    You are so cynical. Next you will be suggesting that Mike has a financial interest in Boris's departure 😲
    I don't
    We all have a financial interest in Johnson's departure. Investment in sensible infrastructure, long term sustainable growth, rebalancing the economy (even, dare I say it, 'levelling up') are things more likely to happen under A N Other :wink:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Just had a call on my mobile from France.

    An automated message from HMRC telling me...yawn, scam scam scam.

    Quite a thing though when the scammers are working on their holidays!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If a General Election takes place, then Tiverton is a CON HOLD (Wakefield is a close betting marginal), I'd expect Smarkets to void both BE markets though in this case.

    Really, that would be ridiculous. Surely the potential for a change of leadership and the consequences that follower are things that all punters have to factor in to their calculations.
    I'm going from previous experience. Manchester Gorton was voided on Betfair when the 2017 election came about. I was greened on that one and lost out.

    One of the interesting facets of a voided market on an exchange is that if you're greened up then you win whether the bet wins or loses but not if the market voids. Happy days if you're redded though.
    If the market is on a by-election then of course a general election in the same seat would not count and be voided. A by-election is specifically not part of a general election.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    If the government has nothing to offer skilled workers then they will vote Labour or Lib Dem. Inflation isn't just for the elderly and the poor.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    How much of a big deal do people think the Jubilee celebrations will be?

    It's possible that they will act to draw a line under the whole affair, a forgiveness of past sins, and a fresh start.

    My 4 year old son had his playgroup jubilee party ("for the Queen") yesterday. He was pretty dispapointed that the Queen didn't bother to turn up; I think he might now be a republican :wink:

    More seriously, I think the CoL situation might limit what people want to do. But then, I was sceptical of there being much fuss for the last jubilee and that turned out to be a fairly big deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2022
    This has to be the most ludicrous thread header OGH has ever posted.

    He is recommending the Conservatives follow the example of Labour in 2007 when they forced out 3 times general election winner Blair in favour of Brown who then lost the 2010 general election having had to abandon his plans for an early 2007 election with Labour then losing all 3 general elections since then too?

    The Tories removing 2019 general election winner Johnson in the same way Labour removed 1997, 2001 and 2005 general election winner Blair is not good advice at all I suggest
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    dixiedean said:

    I agree they would get a bounce.
    One of the problems is though, an argument may break out.
    What is the point of the Tory Party?
    You knew under Cameron. Austerity and social liberalism. May. Brexit means Brexit. Bo Jo Get Brexit Done.
    New leader? Could be almost anything really.
    Think this is an underappreciated factor in the inertia.

    Patel and the need for the death penalty to be restored. The Express would love it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    HYUFD said:

    This has to be the most ludicrous thread header OGH has ever posted.

    He is recommending the Conservatives follow the example of Labour in 2007 when they forced out 3 times general election winner Blair in favour of Brown who then lost the 2010 general election with Labour losing all 3 general elections since then too?

    Works for me :smile:
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    If you block the EGR will it still pass an MOT?

    If you are sufficiently adept at bribing the inspector, yes.

    It will definitely need a remap if you delete EGR. The performance gains from it can be overstated as the EGR system is generally (don't know specifically about the L322) only open at low rpm. It's supposed to be good for engine longevity though.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    How much of a big deal do people think the Jubilee celebrations will be?

    It's possible that they will act to draw a line under the whole affair, a forgiveness of past sins, and a fresh start.

    Predictions: senior Tories will embarrass themselves with crude attempts to Churchillise the whole thing

    Prince Andrew will make a disgusting auto rehab attempt

    Everyone will get drunk in the sunshine

    That is all
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Pulpstar said:

    Doesn't the whole process take a bit longer than a month ?

    With a new leader (Which looks unlikely to me) perhaps, but can't see the Tories picking up many votes in the middle of a leadership campaign with marches for Leadsom Liz Truss going on in and around parliament.

    FPT - Sunak shortening (arf). I backed him at 16.0 with Betfair, he's currently 14/15.5 so not much doing other than a smidgen there.

    David Cameron announced his retirement on June 24th and Theresa May became Tory leader on the 11th of July, and Prime Minister on the 13th of July.

    Can take fewer than three weeks in the right circumstances.
    A pedant writes: *less* than three weeks.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    HYUFD said:

    This has to be the most ludicrous thread header OGH has ever posted.

    He is recommending the Conservatives follow the example of Labour in 2007 when they forced out 3 times general election winner Blair in favour of Brown who then lost the 2010 general election having had to abandon his plans for an early 2007 election with Labour then losing all 3 general elections since then too?

    The Tories removing 2019 general election winner Johnson in the same way Labour removed 1997, 2001 and 2005 general election winner Blair is not good advice at all I suggest

    He is saying they should do what they did when they elected... checks notes.... Alex B de P Johnson.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    I can't help thinking that the Johnson is in trouble again narrative is rather overdone off the back of the Gray Report which is nothing like as excoriating as everyone expected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    WarMonitor🇺🇦
    @WarMonitor3
    ·
    29m
    Lyman has reportedly fallen to the Russians.

    https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1530106166277185537
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Applicant said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If a General Election takes place, then Tiverton is a CON HOLD (Wakefield is a close betting marginal), I'd expect Smarkets to void both BE markets though in this case.

    Really, that would be ridiculous. Surely the potential for a change of leadership and the consequences that follower are things that all punters have to factor in to their calculations.
    If there's a general election called then the by-elections don't get held. I can't see how anything but voiding could happen.
    Oops, I misread pulpstar's post. Yes, we had that with 2017 and the Gorton by-election.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Stocky said:

    I can't help thinking that the Johnson is in trouble again narrative is rather overdone off the back of the Gray Report which is nothing like as excoriating as everyone expected.

    I think the report is pretty much what people expected, but yes, the only time he has been in danger was the one week a couple of months ago when Bell, amongst a handful of others, tried to hold him to account. They did not have the numbers and he has been safe ever since.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 2022
    I knew she'd been charged but missed that the verdict had come in. URL says it all...

    https://news.sky.com/story/how-to-murder-your-husband-writer-nancy-crampton-brophy-found-guilty-of-murdering-her-husband-12621688
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Stocky said:

    I can't help thinking that the Johnson is in trouble again narrative is rather overdone off the back of the Gray Report which is nothing like as excoriating as everyone expected.

    Really? - I find it difficult to imagine it could have been much worse. I am in my mid 50s, have had an interest in politics most of my life, and cannot imagine any PM in that time or before allowing what this buffoon has allowed to happen under his watch. If any CEO of a company had allowed such indiscipline they would be required by their shareholders to step down. It staggers me that anyone could not think it absolutely essential that Johnson does so asap.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    This has to be the most ludicrous thread header OGH has ever posted.

    He is recommending the Conservatives follow the example of Labour in 2007 when they forced out 3 times general election winner Blair in favour of Brown who then lost the 2010 general election having had to abandon his plans for an early 2007 election with Labour then losing all 3 general elections since then too?

    The Tories removing 2019 general election winner Johnson in the same way Labour removed 1997, 2001 and 2005 general election winner Blair is not good advice at all I suggest

    He is saying they should do what they did when they elected... checks notes.... Alex B de P Johnson.
    I prefer the abbreviation BAD MF* Johnson

    (Boris (Alexander) de Mother Feffling)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    dixiedean said:

    I agree they would get a bounce.
    One of the problems is though, an argument may break out.
    What is the point of the Tory Party?
    You knew under Cameron. Austerity and social liberalism. May. Brexit means Brexit. Bo Jo Get Brexit Done.
    New leader? Could be almost anything really.
    Think this is an underappreciated factor in the inertia.

    Objectively the Tories need to have that debate and elect a new leader who can give them a new purpose.

    Ever since HS2E was canned there's been a sense of a void of purpose at the heart of the government. They're all mouth and no trousers over levelling-up. Brexit has been done, and it seems increasingly clear there was no purpose to it. There's no plan of how to reshape the British economy now that we're "free" of the EU.

    The question is whether any of the potential leadership contenders has any idea of what a renewed purpose for the government would be.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    You are so cynical. Next you will be suggesting that Mike has a financial interest in Boris's departure 😲
    I don't
    We all have a financial interest in Johnson's departure. Investment in sensible infrastructure, long term sustainable growth, rebalancing the economy (even, dare I say it, 'levelling up') are things more likely to happen under A N Other :wink:
    Not if Boris is replaced by an austerity hawk or ideological nutjob. Always keep tight hold of nurse...
  • Applicant said:

    Keystone said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    Would Lib Dem pleading for Tory MPs to sack their leader will make Tories more or less likely to do so?

    Is there an element of reverse psychology playing out?
    I think you might have generously shared your insights with the LibDem leadership in previous incarnations. You were very vocal between 2016 and 2017!

    FWIW - I think Johnson would just about hold on at the next election in 2024. None of the potential replacements have any appeal at all outside the activist base. And none have the brio to pull off a move to run against their party's record - or to bring the disgruntled europhiles back into the big tent.
    What makes the call so difficult for Tory MPs is that amongst potential Tory leaders, Boris has simultaneously the highest ceiling and the lowest floor at the next election.
    It's probably better for the LDs that Johnson stays in place and even a perfect scenario for the LDs is only about 35 seats at the next GE.

    Johnson is still relatively popular in the Midlands albeit obviously unpopular elsewhere.

    I think Mordaunt and Wallace are probably the only suitable replacements for Johnson who would not split the party.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    HYUFD said:

    This has to be the most ludicrous thread header OGH has ever posted.

    He is recommending the Conservatives follow the example of Labour in 2007 when they forced out 3 times general election winner Blair in favour of Brown who then lost the 2010 general election having had to abandon his plans for an early 2007 election with Labour then losing all 3 general elections since then too?

    The Tories removing 2019 general election winner Johnson in the same way Labour removed 1997, 2001 and 2005 general election winner Blair is not good advice at all I suggest

    The fact that you think an incompetent buffoon who is a law breaker should remain in office shows you are an even bigger idiot than the average poor deluded Russian who thinks Putin is de-Nazifying Ukraine FFS.
  • Applicant said:
    Crampton Brophy's essay on murdering a husband went into detail about several ways for committing an untraceable killing and avoid getting caught.

    Not quite as untraceable as she thought.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    You are so cynical. Next you will be suggesting that Mike has a financial interest in Boris's departure 😲
    I don't
    We all have a financial interest in Johnson's departure. Investment in sensible infrastructure, long term sustainable growth, rebalancing the economy (even, dare I say it, 'levelling up') are things more likely to happen under A N Other :wink:
    Not if Boris is replaced by an austerity hawk or ideological nutjob. Always keep tight hold of nurse...
    No. Johnson is the pits.

    But then we thought that of May. less so of Cameron, until Greensill.

    Perhaps tory PMs is the problem.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087
    Even if BoJo's long-term replacement hasn't been chosen, the fact that he will have committed to going would probably be sufficiently cathartic for the Conservatives to get a bounce. (Though presumably, if he goes in disgrace, for disgrace it will be, he won't hang around and we'll have a temp for a bit.)

    I' ve mentioned before a council by-election I was involved in on 22 November 1990. (Yes, that day.) Had Maggie announced her departure the night before, a narrow defeat might have become a narrow win.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    If Johnson has lost the support of the parliamentary party then surely he has to go to the Palace immediately and his deputy takes over while a leadership election is held. In 2019 TMay had not been defeated in a confidence ballot so her position was completely different.
  • AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Stocky said:

    I can't help thinking that the Johnson is in trouble again narrative is rather overdone off the back of the Gray Report which is nothing like as excoriating as everyone expected.

    Really? - I find it difficult to imagine it could have been much worse. I am in my mid 50s, have had an interest in politics most of my life, and cannot imagine any PM in that time or before allowing what this buffoon has allowed to happen under his watch. If any CEO of a company had allowed such indiscipline they would be required by their shareholders to step down. It staggers me that anyone could not think it absolutely essential that Johnson does so asap.
    Yes - I want him to go as well - but those sentiments were baked in before the report was published. He is in a stronger position post-report (and post-Met investigation) than he was before.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Stocky said:

    I can't help thinking that the Johnson is in trouble again narrative is rather overdone off the back of the Gray Report which is nothing like as excoriating as everyone expected.

    Hmm, but you're inferring the impact of the report from Tory behaviour so far. If they react this weekend, then your judgement is automatically upgraded to excorciating, isn't it?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    If Johnson has lost the support of the parliamentary party then surely he has to go to the Palace immediately and his deputy takes over while a leadership election is held. In 2019 TMay had not been defeated in a confidence ballot so her position was completely different.

    How can you conclude that he has lost the support of the parliamentary party when not even 15% of his MPs have put pen to paper?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited May 2022

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    You are so cynical. Next you will be suggesting that Mike has a financial interest in Boris's departure 😲
    I don't
    We all have a financial interest in Johnson's departure. Investment in sensible infrastructure, long term sustainable growth, rebalancing the economy (even, dare I say it, 'levelling up') are things more likely to happen under A N Other :wink:
    Not if Boris is replaced by an austerity hawk or ideological nutjob. Always keep tight hold of nurse...
    This is one of the benefits of waiting to see how the local elections by-elections go. If he does well then he's clearly an asset and you should keep him, if he gets crushed then hopefully it'll focus the members' minds on picking an electable replacement.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    This has to be the most ludicrous thread header OGH has ever posted.

    He is recommending the Conservatives follow the example of Labour in 2007 when they forced out 3 times general election winner Blair in favour of Brown who then lost the 2010 general election having had to abandon his plans for an early 2007 election with Labour then losing all 3 general elections since then too?

    The Tories removing 2019 general election winner Johnson in the same way Labour removed 1997, 2001 and 2005 general election winner Blair is not good advice at all I suggest

    First Officer: the ship is taking water rapidly, sir, I suggest we broadcast a distress call and launch the lifeboats

    Capt. HYUFD: Good God, man, are you suggesting we take the very steps the Titanic took shortly before sinking with the loss of 1500 lives? What madness is this?
    That's genuinely hilarious. Seems like the sort of thing that Mitchell and Webb would have done.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Off topic...

    Today marks 30 years that me and Wor Lass have been together.

    Amazing that she has put up with me for so long. I consider myself to be very fortunate.

    And hopefully, she too!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    You are so cynical. Next you will be suggesting that Mike has a financial interest in Boris's departure 😲
    I don't
    We all have a financial interest in Johnson's departure. Investment in sensible infrastructure, long term sustainable growth, rebalancing the economy (even, dare I say it, 'levelling up') are things more likely to happen under A N Other :wink:
    Not if Boris is replaced by an austerity hawk or ideological nutjob. Always keep tight hold of nurse...
    True that. A pre-election departure, at least, comes with significant risks of someone worse.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited May 2022
    EPG said:

    Stocky said:

    I can't help thinking that the Johnson is in trouble again narrative is rather overdone off the back of the Gray Report which is nothing like as excoriating as everyone expected.

    Hmm, but you're inferring the impact of the report from Tory behaviour so far. If they react this weekend, then your judgement is automatically upgraded to excorciating, isn't it?
    No - objectively the report wasn't as bad for Johnson as was expected. Witness the Johnson-haters and opposition commentators who were clearly disappointed with it and critical of it. Just look back at the PB thread immediately after its publication.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    dixiedean said:

    I agree they would get a bounce.
    One of the problems is though, an argument may break out.
    What is the point of the Tory Party?
    You knew under Cameron. Austerity and social liberalism. May. Brexit means Brexit. Bo Jo Get Brexit Done.
    New leader? Could be almost anything really.
    Think this is an underappreciated factor in the inertia.

    Objectively the Tories need to have that debate and elect a new leader who can give them a new purpose.

    Ever since HS2E was canned there's been a sense of a void of purpose at the heart of the government. They're all mouth and no trousers over levelling-up. Brexit has been done, and it seems increasingly clear there was no purpose to it. There's no plan of how to reshape the British economy now that we're "free" of the EU.

    The question is whether any of the potential leadership contenders has any idea of what a renewed purpose for the government would be.
    For me. The problem would be that the "purposes" outlined could be diametrically opposed to each other. There's a possibility it could be radical small state v full on Red Tory. Be kinder v no holds barred Culture War.
    The losers have a lot to lose if they even open the box marked "ideological incoherence".
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited May 2022

    If Johnson has lost the support of the parliamentary party then surely he has to go to the Palace immediately and his deputy takes over while a leadership election is held. In 2019 TMay had not been defeated in a confidence ballot so her position was completely different.

    Though the precedence with Ian Duncan Smith was that he lost the VONC but remained leader of the Conservatives and Leader of the Opposition until his successor was elected.

    I would expect if a VONC is lost then surely that precedence should be followed, whereby Johnson would go as soon as he can advise the Queen on his replacement, just as Cameron and May (and Blair and Thatcher) did before him. If Tory MPs who voted against him are happy with that, then he could still command a majority in the house until his replacement is chosen.

    Johnson might in that situation choose to flounce off rather than remain PM having lost the VONC, but I don't see why he'd be under any obligation to do so.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,163
    HYUFD said:

    This has to be the most ludicrous thread header OGH has ever posted.

    He is recommending the Conservatives follow the example of Labour in 2007 when they forced out 3 times general election winner Blair in favour of Brown who then lost the 2010 general election having had to abandon his plans for an early 2007 election with Labour then losing all 3 general elections since then too?

    The Tories removing 2019 general election winner Johnson in the same way Labour removed 1997, 2001 and 2005 general election winner Blair is not good advice at all I suggest

    Think Thatcher not Brown.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    If Johnson has lost the support of the parliamentary party then surely he has to go to the Palace immediately and his deputy takes over while a leadership election is held. In 2019 TMay had not been defeated in a confidence ballot so her position was completely different.

    The words "Johnson" and "surely has to" in the same sentence do not compute.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Off topic, can anyone explain why the windows of Downing Street, our centre of government, look like a Kindergarten? Is it meant to provide a metaphor?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    Applicant said:
    Crampton Brophy's essay on murdering a husband went into detail about several ways for committing an untraceable killing and avoid getting caught.

    Not quite as untraceable as she thought.
    A study in not believing your own propaganda?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    How much of a big deal do people think the Jubilee celebrations will be?

    It's possible that they will act to draw a line under the whole affair, a forgiveness of past sins, and a fresh start.

    Predictions: senior Tories will embarrass themselves with crude attempts to Churchillise the whole thing

    Prince Andrew will make a disgusting auto rehab attempt

    Everyone will get drunk in the sunshine

    That is all

    Everyone sensible is gonna flee the country. I will be enjoying the jubilee from a very safe distance.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    Yourself, or whichever other like-minded local you can persuade to stand under the Independent Conservative banner.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I can't help thinking that the Johnson is in trouble again narrative is rather overdone off the back of the Gray Report which is nothing like as excoriating as everyone expected.

    Really? - I find it difficult to imagine it could have been much worse. I am in my mid 50s, have had an interest in politics most of my life, and cannot imagine any PM in that time or before allowing what this buffoon has allowed to happen under his watch. If any CEO of a company had allowed such indiscipline they would be required by their shareholders to step down. It staggers me that anyone could not think it absolutely essential that Johnson does so asap.
    Yes - I want him to go as well - but those sentiments were baked in before the report was published. He is in a stronger position post-report (and post-Met investigation) than he was before.
    I am not sure that is the case. I at least hope it is not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    IshmaelZ said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    You are so cynical. Next you will be suggesting that Mike has a financial interest in Boris's departure 😲
    I don't
    We all have a financial interest in Johnson's departure. Investment in sensible infrastructure, long term sustainable growth, rebalancing the economy (even, dare I say it, 'levelling up') are things more likely to happen under A N Other :wink:
    Not if Boris is replaced by an austerity hawk or ideological nutjob. Always keep tight hold of nurse...
    No. Johnson is the pits.

    But then we thought that of May. less so of Cameron, until Greensill.

    Perhaps tory PMs is the problem.
    David Cameron was our worst Prime Minister since Lord North. Boris is sui generis — impossible to rate on any normal dimension. I'm not even sure the man is a liar, even though so much of what he says is false. Boris is our most unsuitable Prime Minister.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    Liberal Party?* If you can find a candidate.

    (Just looked them up, wondering how fiscally dry they were - they're a bit vague, but look probably economically right of LDs, as you might expect from the history).

    *I don't want any whining about them not having a chance of getting elected, you FPTP supporter, you :wink:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I agree they would get a bounce.
    One of the problems is though, an argument may break out.
    What is the point of the Tory Party?
    You knew under Cameron. Austerity and social liberalism. May. Brexit means Brexit. Bo Jo Get Brexit Done.
    New leader? Could be almost anything really.
    Think this is an underappreciated factor in the inertia.

    Objectively the Tories need to have that debate and elect a new leader who can give them a new purpose.

    Ever since HS2E was canned there's been a sense of a void of purpose at the heart of the government. They're all mouth and no trousers over levelling-up. Brexit has been done, and it seems increasingly clear there was no purpose to it. There's no plan of how to reshape the British economy now that we're "free" of the EU.

    The question is whether any of the potential leadership contenders has any idea of what a renewed purpose for the government would be.
    For me. The problem would be that the "purposes" outlined could be diametrically opposed to each other. There's a possibility it could be radical small state v full on Red Tory. Be kinder v no holds barred Culture War.
    The losers have a lot to lose if they even open the box marked "ideological incoherence".
    Time for a change then.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087
    Applicant said:

    Keystone said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    Would Lib Dem pleading for Tory MPs to sack their leader will make Tories more or less likely to do so?

    Is there an element of reverse psychology playing out?
    I think you might have generously shared your insights with the LibDem leadership in previous incarnations. You were very vocal between 2016 and 2017!

    FWIW - I think Johnson would just about hold on at the next election in 2024. None of the potential replacements have any appeal at all outside the activist base. And none have the brio to pull off a move to run against their party's record - or to bring the disgruntled europhiles back into the big tent.
    What makes the call so difficult for Tory MPs is that amongst potential Tory leaders, Boris has simultaneously the highest ceiling and the lowest floor at the next election.
    That's what makes the calculation so exquisitely cruel.

    Putting someone like Hunt, Sunak or anyone sensible in is probably conceding defeat in 2024. Close and dignified, but defeat. Basically, it's 1964 all over again.

    Keeping Boris in place probably leads to disaster. He will keep leaving unpleasant messes on the carpet, because he's never been house trained. But you never know... he might just pull it off.

    I know which one I would go for, which one makes more rational sense, which one the numbers point to. But I'm not a professional politician, because as a career it doesn't make rational sense. I can see how the 1% gamble might be attractive- making a heap of all your winnings and risking it on one turn and all that.

    But my only message to Conservative MPs, activists and Odyessian thinkers is- what did you think was going to happen when you elevated Johnson?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Stocky said:

    EPG said:

    Stocky said:

    I can't help thinking that the Johnson is in trouble again narrative is rather overdone off the back of the Gray Report which is nothing like as excoriating as everyone expected.

    Hmm, but you're inferring the impact of the report from Tory behaviour so far. If they react this weekend, then your judgement is automatically upgraded to excorciating, isn't it?
    No - objectively the report wasn't as bad for Johnson as was expected. Witness the Johnson-haters and opposition commentators who were clearly disappointed with it and critical of it. Just look back at the PB thread immediately after its publication.
    It is always the same. Sure, if you read the text closely, the subject is condemned but at the last moment the authors pull their punches and the report is bland; the big picture, the headlines are favourable and our hero lives to fight another day. Franks, Butler, Gray.
  • Selebian said:

    AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    Liberal Party?* If you can find a candidate.

    (Just looked them up, wondering how fiscally dry they were - they're a bit vague, but look probably economically right of LDs, as you might expect from the history).

    *I don't want any whining about them not having a chance of getting elected, you FPTP supporter, you :wink:
    If they had a candidate I might actually, protest votes work under FPTP even if they don't get elected.

    I think I'd probably spoil my ballot anyway, possibly write a message on it like "Cut taxes, build houses" and tick that and leave all candidates blank, so if I'm going to spoil my ballot I might as well vote for a no hope party.

    I'll vote either way, I consider it a civic duty, but if I can't vote for anyone then my vote will be deliberately spoilt. That's still voting, but its not endorsing anyone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Ah, two of my favourite things combined: tracking humans and carbon footprints:
    https://twitter.com/AndrewLawton/status/1529045188764921856
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    I'm not going to convince you, but.
    There are only 2 possible governments.
    If you're going to get Labour economic policies from both you may as well choose the social liberal one.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Applicant said:

    Keystone said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    Would Lib Dem pleading for Tory MPs to sack their leader will make Tories more or less likely to do so?

    Is there an element of reverse psychology playing out?
    I think you might have generously shared your insights with the LibDem leadership in previous incarnations. You were very vocal between 2016 and 2017!

    FWIW - I think Johnson would just about hold on at the next election in 2024. None of the potential replacements have any appeal at all outside the activist base. And none have the brio to pull off a move to run against their party's record - or to bring the disgruntled europhiles back into the big tent.
    What makes the call so difficult for Tory MPs is that amongst potential Tory leaders, Boris has simultaneously the highest ceiling and the lowest floor at the next election.
    That's what makes the calculation so exquisitely cruel.

    Putting someone like Hunt, Sunak or anyone sensible in is probably conceding defeat in 2024. Close and dignified, but defeat. Basically, it's 1964 all over again.

    Keeping Boris in place probably leads to disaster. He will keep leaving unpleasant messes on the carpet, because he's never been house trained. But you never know... he might just pull it off.

    I know which one I would go for, which one makes more rational sense, which one the numbers point to. But I'm not a professional politician, because as a career it doesn't make rational sense. I can see how the 1% gamble might be attractive- making a heap of all your winnings and risking it on one turn and all that.

    But my only message to Conservative MPs, activists and Odyessian thinkers is- what did you think was going to happen when you elevated Johnson?
    I still think a sensible boring Conservative leader can beat Labour. There are a lot of traditional Conservatives who will not vote Conservative with The Clown in charge. A lot of us are still very nervous of a bossy Labour government, but not nervous enough of it to vote Tory while Johnson is still there. Remove him and it is return to the fold time.
  • dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    I'm not going to convince you, but.
    There are only 2 possible governments.
    If you're going to get Labour economic policies from both you may as well choose the social liberal one.
    And which one is that? You're not suggesting the party that wanted to introduce ID cards and detention without trial are you?

    You'd make an excellent point if the Labour party are socially liberal then I might just hold my nose about their economics, but I see no evidence that they actually are.
  • AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    You call yourself a 'social liberal' but you voted for the Brexit Party in 2019 and support sending people to Rwanda. You are an extreme reactionary who makes HYUFD look very moderate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Foremain, if it's Johnson versus Starmer I'm voting for neither.

    I'd be likely to vote for Hunt or Sunak.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Applicant said:

    Keystone said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Another header which looks awfully like a nudge for the Tory MP readership of this blog.

    Go on lads, you know you want to

    Would Lib Dem pleading for Tory MPs to sack their leader will make Tories more or less likely to do so?

    Is there an element of reverse psychology playing out?
    I think you might have generously shared your insights with the LibDem leadership in previous incarnations. You were very vocal between 2016 and 2017!

    FWIW - I think Johnson would just about hold on at the next election in 2024. None of the potential replacements have any appeal at all outside the activist base. And none have the brio to pull off a move to run against their party's record - or to bring the disgruntled europhiles back into the big tent.
    What makes the call so difficult for Tory MPs is that amongst potential Tory leaders, Boris has simultaneously the highest ceiling and the lowest floor at the next election.
    That's what makes the calculation so exquisitely cruel.

    Putting someone like Hunt, Sunak or anyone sensible in is probably conceding defeat in 2024. Close and dignified, but defeat. Basically, it's 1964 all over again.

    Keeping Boris in place probably leads to disaster. He will keep leaving unpleasant messes on the carpet, because he's never been house trained. But you never know... he might just pull it off.

    I know which one I would go for, which one makes more rational sense, which one the numbers point to. But I'm not a professional politician, because as a career it doesn't make rational sense. I can see how the 1% gamble might be attractive- making a heap of all your winnings and risking it on one turn and all that.

    But my only message to Conservative MPs, activists and Odyessian thinkers is- what did you think was going to happen when you elevated Johnson?
    You are missing a factor. Each MP will be asking not only what is best for the chances of another Conservative government but also, what is best for me in my own seat? There will be many for whom a moderate defeat is better than a landslide. And it might even help their chances of promotion.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    mwadams said:

    AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    I broadly agree with you, but...

    I went from "always voting Tory" to "spoiling my ballot paper with a complaint about the Tories" for a long while. Then I started to look at individual local councillors and their policies and behaviours, and started to vote locally for effective people with a good cross-party reputation. Then I started engaging with my (Labour) MP more, and have been generally impressed with his parliamentary interventions, so I voted for him in the last GE.

    I now think the parties are busted flushes, and I'm as likely to get a terrible government voting Blue or Red or anything in between. So I'm doing my best to put people into office who are not total idiots, as individuals.
    The main problem at national level though, attractive as the concept is, is that almost all MPs are spineless sheep who follow whatever nonsense they are whipped to follow. If you have one with a spine, its the exception not the rule.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Mr. Foremain, if it's Johnson versus Starmer I'm voting for neither.

    I'd be likely to vote for Hunt or Sunak.

    I think Hunt with someone Brexity like Baker as a deputy would be a winning formula. Competence, discipline, unity could be the banner. Everything The Clown is not.
  • AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    You call yourself a 'social liberal' but you voted for the Brexit Party in 2019 and support sending people to Rwanda. You are an extreme reactionary who makes HYUFD look very moderate.
    I cast a protest vote in 2019 in part to get rid of an authoritarian anti-immigration PM that I despised. The Brexit Party were no more than a tool for that as far as I was concerned, it also ousted Nigel Farage from the European Parliament so another win there.

    I am not a reactionary, I am very pro-immigration and am happy to have a liberalised immigration system that is fair to all regardless of where in the planet they were born, or what the colour of their skin is, rather than prioritising primarily white Europeans over the rest of the planet.

    I hate that there is no better solution than the Rwanda one, but the Channel is not safe to cross via people smugglers and it causes misery and drownings and every other policy has failed to fix that, offshore relocation works. It halted such movements with Australia, which has more people proportionately immigrating than the UK does.

    I'd be quite happy to have an Australian-style system where that means twice as many people arrive proportionately as do now, but those people are fairly able to get visas from around the world, and people don't drown in the English Channel getting here.

    That's not what the reactionaries want, or what they mean by Australian-style.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    Mr. Foremain, if it's Johnson versus Starmer I'm voting for neither.

    I'd be likely to vote for Hunt or Sunak.

    Id hate voting for Boz but I'll mainly be voting to tell Clive Lewis to do one
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    edited May 2022

    Selebian said:

    AlistairM said:

    Just a thought about whether letters could go in to get rid of Boris.

    I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.

    I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.

    Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.

    I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't vote for the Greens as they are Watermelons that are almost as bad as Corbyn's Labour.

    The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
    Liberal Party?* If you can find a candidate.

    (Just looked them up, wondering how fiscally dry they were - they're a bit vague, but look probably economically right of LDs, as you might expect from the history).

    *I don't want any whining about them not having a chance of getting elected, you FPTP supporter, you :wink:
    If they had a candidate I might actually, protest votes work under FPTP even if they don't get elected.

    I think I'd probably spoil my ballot anyway, possibly write a message on it like "Cut taxes, build houses" and tick that and leave all candidates blank, so if I'm going to spoil my ballot I might as well vote for a no hope party.

    I'll vote either way, I consider it a civic duty, but if I can't vote for anyone then my vote will be deliberately spoilt. That's still voting, but its not endorsing anyone.
    I agree about feeling the need to vote, even if you choose the self-created 'none of the above' option".

    One things I have observed about the Greens, BTW, is that something has changed (around our way at any rate); 10-15 years ago the Green candidate would always be a fruitloop with cheese in his beard. Now they seem to be more Fabian types with a strong sense of "localism", and an emphasis on "sustainability" policies rather than "environmentalism" in the old "Rainbow Warrior" sense.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,248

    Pulpstar said:

    Doesn't the whole process take a bit longer than a month ?

    With a new leader (Which looks unlikely to me) perhaps, but can't see the Tories picking up many votes in the middle of a leadership campaign with marches for Leadsom Liz Truss going on in and around parliament.

    FPT - Sunak shortening (arf). I backed him at 16.0 with Betfair, he's currently 14/15.5 so not much doing other than a smidgen there.

    David Cameron announced his retirement on June 24th and Theresa May became Tory leader on the 11th of July, and Prime Minister on the 13th of July.

    Can take fewer than three weeks in the right circumstances.
    And what a fecking disaster that was
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ah, two of my favourite things combined: tracking humans and carbon footprints:
    https://twitter.com/AndrewLawton/status/1529045188764921856

    I for one welcome the acquisition of these data by our insect overlords.

    I thought Davos was in the skiing season usually.
This discussion has been closed.