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If Johnson`s ousted the by-elections could be CON holds – politicalbetting.com
If Johnson`s ousted the by-elections could be CON holds – politicalbetting.com
I have just been rethinking my betting on the June 23rd by elections because there must be a possibility now that Johnson isn’t going to survive. Without him at the helm then the whole Tory proposition will be different and we cannot rule out a boost for the party in the polls.
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Currently annoyed because my keyboard has lost one of its little legs and I can't find it.
It's like Long John Sunak.
With a new leader (Which looks unlikely to me) perhaps, but can't see the Tories picking up many votes in the middle of a leadership campaign with marches for Leadsom Liz Truss going on in and around parliament.
FPT - Sunak shortening (arf). I backed him at 16.0 with Betfair, he's currently 14/15.5 so not much doing other than a smidgen there.
Go on lads, you know you want to
That said, the previous time was much quicker.
From Wiki: The 2019 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when Theresa May announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as Leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom once a successor had been elected. Nominations opened on 10 June; 10 candidates were nominated. The first ballot of Members of Parliament (MPs) took place on 13 June, with exhaustive ballots of MPs also taking place on 18, 19 and 20 June, reducing the candidates to two. The general membership of the party elected the leader by postal ballot with the result announced on 23 July, with Boris Johnson being elected with almost twice as many votes as his opponent Jeremy Hunt.
Is there an element of reverse psychology playing out?
So yeah, all of summer actually seems increasingly feasible, if we add on time for a VONC and recess etc
Can take fewer than three weeks in the right circumstances.
A General Election voids the by-election, so by-election bets must be voided. If a GE is called, all pending by-elections (and therefore bets) are voided and a GE occurs instead of a by-election.
There's a really good independent specialist a few miles away I suspect I would become very friendly with.
If you block the EGR will it still pass an MOT?
One of the interesting facets of a voided market on an exchange is that if you're greened up then you win whether the bet wins or loses but not if the market voids. Happy days if you're redded though.
FWIW - I think Johnson would just about hold on at the next election in 2024. None of the potential replacements have any appeal at all outside the activist base. And none have the brio to pull off a move to run against their party's record - or to bring the disgruntled europhiles back into the big tent.
It's possible that they will act to draw a line under the whole affair, a forgiveness of past sins, and a fresh start.
One of the problems is though, an argument may break out.
What is the point of the Tory Party?
You knew under Cameron. Austerity and social liberalism. May. Brexit means Brexit. Bo Jo Get Brexit Done.
New leader? Could be almost anything really.
Think this is an underappreciated factor in the inertia.
An automated message from HMRC telling me...yawn, scam scam scam.
Quite a thing though when the scammers are working on their holidays!
More seriously, I think the CoL situation might limit what people want to do. But then, I was sceptical of there being much fuss for the last jubilee and that turned out to be a fairly big deal.
He is recommending the Conservatives follow the example of Labour in 2007 when they forced out 3 times general election winner Blair in favour of Brown who then lost the 2010 general election having had to abandon his plans for an early 2007 election with Labour then losing all 3 general elections since then too?
The Tories removing 2019 general election winner Johnson in the same way Labour removed 1997, 2001 and 2005 general election winner Blair is not good advice at all I suggest
It will definitely need a remap if you delete EGR. The performance gains from it can be overstated as the EGR system is generally (don't know specifically about the L322) only open at low rpm. It's supposed to be good for engine longevity though.
Prince Andrew will make a disgusting auto rehab attempt
Everyone will get drunk in the sunshine
That is all
@WarMonitor3
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29m
Lyman has reportedly fallen to the Russians.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1530106166277185537
https://news.sky.com/story/how-to-murder-your-husband-writer-nancy-crampton-brophy-found-guilty-of-murdering-her-husband-12621688
Capt. HYUFD: Good God, man, are you suggesting we take the very steps the Titanic took shortly before sinking with the loss of 1500 lives? What madness is this?
(Boris (Alexander) de Mother Feffling)
Today marks 30 years that me and Wor Lass have been together.
Amazing that she has put up with me for so long. I consider myself to be very fortunate.
Ever since HS2E was canned there's been a sense of a void of purpose at the heart of the government. They're all mouth and no trousers over levelling-up. Brexit has been done, and it seems increasingly clear there was no purpose to it. There's no plan of how to reshape the British economy now that we're "free" of the EU.
The question is whether any of the potential leadership contenders has any idea of what a renewed purpose for the government would be.
I'm a traditional Tory voter who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I could just about stomach all the rubbish that has gone on lately because I saw the alternative as being worse. But is it really worse now? The Tories have turned into Labour splashing the cash indiscriminately. They are going to give me (and millions of others) a cash handout and then up my taxes to pay for it. That is not the Conservative way. That is classic Labour policy.
I have now turned. The Tories will not get my vote with Boris in charge as they are basically Labour in disguise. I'm obviously not going to vote Labour but the lack of my vote makes it far more likely others will get in. We have a council by-election coming up soon. I may just give a vote to the Greens for their local sustainable approach.
Now, if how I feel is how Tory MPs feel then maybe they might just send in their letters (e.g. John Redwood). It might not be partygate but instead the transformation of the Tory Party into the Labour Party.
Johnson is still relatively popular in the Midlands albeit obviously unpopular elsewhere.
I think Mordaunt and Wallace are probably the only suitable replacements for Johnson who would not split the party.
Not quite as untraceable as she thought.
But then we thought that of May. less so of Cameron, until Greensill.
Perhaps tory PMs is the problem.
I' ve mentioned before a council by-election I was involved in on 22 November 1990. (Yes, that day.) Had Maggie announced her departure the night before, a narrow defeat might have become a narrow win.
The only ones I could just about stomach are the Lib Dems, but their NIMBYism puts me off. Other than that, who is a socially liberal, dry as dust conservative supposed to vote for?
The losers have a lot to lose if they even open the box marked "ideological incoherence".
I would expect if a VONC is lost then surely that precedence should be followed, whereby Johnson would go as soon as he can advise the Queen on his replacement, just as Cameron and May (and Blair and Thatcher) did before him. If Tory MPs who voted against him are happy with that, then he could still command a majority in the house until his replacement is chosen.
Johnson might in that situation choose to flounce off rather than remain PM having lost the VONC, but I don't see why he'd be under any obligation to do so.
Everyone sensible is gonna flee the country. I will be enjoying the jubilee from a very safe distance.
(Just looked them up, wondering how fiscally dry they were - they're a bit vague, but look probably economically right of LDs, as you might expect from the history).
*I don't want any whining about them not having a chance of getting elected, you FPTP supporter, you
Putting someone like Hunt, Sunak or anyone sensible in is probably conceding defeat in 2024. Close and dignified, but defeat. Basically, it's 1964 all over again.
Keeping Boris in place probably leads to disaster. He will keep leaving unpleasant messes on the carpet, because he's never been house trained. But you never know... he might just pull it off.
I know which one I would go for, which one makes more rational sense, which one the numbers point to. But I'm not a professional politician, because as a career it doesn't make rational sense. I can see how the 1% gamble might be attractive- making a heap of all your winnings and risking it on one turn and all that.
But my only message to Conservative MPs, activists and Odyessian thinkers is- what did you think was going to happen when you elevated Johnson?
I went from "always voting Tory" to "spoiling my ballot paper with a complaint about the Tories" for a long while. Then I started to look at individual local councillors and their policies and behaviours, and started to vote locally for effective people with a good cross-party reputation. Then I started engaging with my (Labour) MP more, and have been generally impressed with his parliamentary interventions, so I voted for him in the last GE.
I now think the parties are busted flushes, and I'm as likely to get a terrible government voting Blue or Red or anything in between. So I'm doing my best to put people into office who are not total idiots, as individuals.
I think I'd probably spoil my ballot anyway, possibly write a message on it like "Cut taxes, build houses" and tick that and leave all candidates blank, so if I'm going to spoil my ballot I might as well vote for a no hope party.
I'll vote either way, I consider it a civic duty, but if I can't vote for anyone then my vote will be deliberately spoilt. That's still voting, but its not endorsing anyone.
Ah, two of my favourite things combined: tracking humans and carbon footprints:
https://twitter.com/AndrewLawton/status/1529045188764921856
There are only 2 possible governments.
If you're going to get Labour economic policies from both you may as well choose the social liberal one.
You'd make an excellent point if the Labour party are socially liberal then I might just hold my nose about their economics, but I see no evidence that they actually are.
I'd be likely to vote for Hunt or Sunak.
I am not a reactionary, I am very pro-immigration and am happy to have a liberalised immigration system that is fair to all regardless of where in the planet they were born, or what the colour of their skin is, rather than prioritising primarily white Europeans over the rest of the planet.
I hate that there is no better solution than the Rwanda one, but the Channel is not safe to cross via people smugglers and it causes misery and drownings and every other policy has failed to fix that, offshore relocation works. It halted such movements with Australia, which has more people proportionately immigrating than the UK does.
I'd be quite happy to have an Australian-style system where that means twice as many people arrive proportionately as do now, but those people are fairly able to get visas from around the world, and people don't drown in the English Channel getting here.
That's not what the reactionaries want, or what they mean by Australian-style.
One things I have observed about the Greens, BTW, is that something has changed (around our way at any rate); 10-15 years ago the Green candidate would always be a fruitloop with cheese in his beard. Now they seem to be more Fabian types with a strong sense of "localism", and an emphasis on "sustainability" policies rather than "environmentalism" in the old "Rainbow Warrior" sense.
I thought Davos was in the skiing season usually.