I said this on Saturday when the story broke. If he’s fined, he’ll have to resign, so there’s no downside to saying he will. Obviously, it won’t lead to Johnson resigning, but the contrast will be there. And, if Starmer does end up having to step down, Labour gets a more politically savvy leader after Starmer has done most of the internal cleaning up. It’s a no lose for Labour.
Who is this much more politically savvy leader just sitting waiting around doing nothing for Labour? Starmer was the best of the bad bunch.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.
There's exceptional value to be had.
Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.
Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.
To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.
It’s not happening.
Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
Moray is indeed being split up between three new seats. The biggest chunk is going into the new Highland East and Elgin seat. Baxter rates this as:
66% SNP win 34% Con win
But that is largely based on polling before the SCons dropped into the teens.
Yeah. Although Moray was the only area their vote share increased from 2017 (albeit fractionally) aside from Dumfries and Galloway. They also held up ok in Highland. So it's not where the votes are leaking at the moment (Edinburgh, the central belt especially)
Yes, both Edinburgh and Glasgow were absolute horror shows for the local Conservatives. Brexit really undermined them, but the self-inflicted blows from their supposed colleagues in London just never stop. They really ought to resurrect the old “Progressives” brand.
The problem for Highland and Moray Tories is that nobody else wants to work with them.
Yeah, they've got to make some choices. I think they'd be better off with Murdo in charge and becoming the party of the coasts and borders (and perthshire). They ought to remain competitive in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire and Argyll will become interesting if labour recover at the SNPs expense rather than trading votes with the Tories. D and G I fancy being their impregnable last stand bastion
Murdo just lacks everything you expect to find in a senior politician. I think it comes from low self-esteem. He behaves like a classic back-bencher, doomed to never control any actual levers of power. He’s almost like a George Galloway character, before he quit Labour: a figure of scorn and derision even among party colleagues.
And as for coasts, borders and Perthshire, that would require the Tories to become pro-farming, pro-fisheries and pro-business. All recent traffic has been entirely in the opposite direction.
Nope, the Scottish centre-right will recover post-independence, not pre-.
Remember the Queens XI tweet. Not a sign of a canny politician - instantly pisses off a fair chunk of the electorate in a stupid way. I can't imagine Mr Ross coming out with it (and not just cos he is the ref).
Another thought occurs to me over the ridiculous 'the curry was late' nonsense. We know it was a pre arranged dinner 'YS to order'. Are we really to believe YS didn't contact the Indian In advance and say 'here's some great publicity for you. Takeaway for a party of 30 for the leader of the opposition required for 8.30 pm' and that the Indian takeaway wouldn't have absolutely ensured dinner for LOTO was hot, tasty and on schedule?? Is the position that YS got to 7 and said 'oh shit, i haven't ordered Keirs dinner!'
Another thought occurs to me over the ridiculous 'the curry was late' nonsense. We know it was a pre arranged dinner 'YS to order'. Are we really to believe YS didn't contact the Indian In advance and say 'here's some great publicity for you. Takeaway for a party of 30 for the leader of the opposition required for 8.30 pm' and that the Indian takeaway wouldn't have absolutely ensured dinner for LOTO was hot, tasty and on schedule?? Is the position that YS got to 7 and said 'oh shit, i haven't ordered Keirs dinner!'
I hope you aren't anyone important if you think the world runs on that sort of Do you know who I am-ery. 30 meals is 30 meals regardless, and it anyway only takes one crypto Tory saboteur rice cook to delay the whole thing
I said this on Saturday when the story broke. If he’s fined, he’ll have to resign, so there’s no downside to saying he will. Obviously, it won’t lead to Johnson resigning, but the contrast will be there. And, if Starmer does end up having to step down, Labour gets a more politically savvy leader after Starmer has done most of the internal cleaning up. It’s a no lose for Labour.
🚨NEW: Starmer to make a statement on the Durham police investigation at 4pm. Understand he will offer his resignation if issued with a FPN. His team adamant he’ll be cleared & this an attempt to draw line between Starmer & Johnson that not all politicians are the same https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1523662844125843456
Another thought occurs to me over the ridiculous 'the curry was late' nonsense. We know it was a pre arranged dinner 'YS to order'. Are we really to believe YS didn't contact the Indian In advance and say 'here's some great publicity for you. Takeaway for a party of 30 for the leader of the opposition required for 8.30 pm' and that the Indian takeaway wouldn't have absolutely ensured dinner for LOTO was hot, tasty and on schedule?? Is the position that YS got to 7 and said 'oh shit, i haven't ordered Keirs dinner!'
There's a rather obvious problem with that. PLumping publicly for one side in politics is often dangerous for a business. Especially a local one.
Well even if they didnt want the publicity, they aren't going to be late are they? It's almost certainly their biggest order of the night if not the month given nobody was supposed to be having boozy takeouts in big groups
'Nervy Tories now fear that they have overplayed their hand... That is why Jacob Rees-Mogg last night was so reluctant to press the issue when he appeared on Andrew Neil's Channel 4 show.'
@RochdalePioneers FPT Need to get a trolley jack or suchlike that can be pumped up, underneath it or in front of it at least. Get it onto trolley jack , be sure you do it so you can get it through doorways , but they are pretty maneouverable , imagine standing as it is now woudl be easiest way, just how you get jack underneath or if you can wiggle it onto it with some help. Be a tough job, easier to make it into a cabinet. Borrow from your local garage and have a few burly helpers if using trolley jack and wear sturdy boots.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
Another thought occurs to me over the ridiculous 'the curry was late' nonsense. We know it was a pre arranged dinner 'YS to order'. Are we really to believe YS didn't contact the Indian In advance and say 'here's some great publicity for you. Takeaway for a party of 30 for the leader of the opposition required for 8.30 pm' and that the Indian takeaway wouldn't have absolutely ensured dinner for LOTO was hot, tasty and on schedule?? Is the position that YS got to 7 and said 'oh shit, i haven't ordered Keirs dinner!'
What the fuck is this shit?
Yes, the natural question for everything that has been claimed about Keir's Durham shindig. They went back to work, it was a working dinner, the curry was late, no rules were broken
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
The hounds typically just want one victim.
And we'll all move on to the next circus soon anyway.
I said this on Saturday when the story broke. If he’s fined, he’ll have to resign, so there’s no downside to saying he will. Obviously, it won’t lead to Johnson resigning, but the contrast will be there. And, if Starmer does end up having to step down, Labour gets a more politically savvy leader after Starmer has done most of the internal cleaning up. It’s a no lose for Labour.
Who is this much more politically savvy leader just sitting waiting around doing nothing for Labour? Starmer was the best of the bad bunch.
I think that over the last two days both Lisa Nandy and Wes Streeting have demonstrated they are politically far smarter than Starmer. They are fluent and comfortable under questioning in a way Starmer will never be. I think Bridget Phillipson is similarly skilled.
🚨NEW: Starmer to make a statement on the Durham police investigation at 4pm. Understand he will offer his resignation if issued with a FPN. His team adamant he’ll be cleared & this an attempt to draw line between Starmer & Johnson that not all politicians are the same https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1523662844125843456
-Johnson only has himself for blame for 'Partgate': the government he leads didn't have to set the rules as they did, and otherwise they should have made sure they always followed them. -Starmer only has himself to blame for 'Beergate': he did not have to be quite so unbearably sactimonious when 'partgate' broke.
Given these rules were seemingly so easy to break for the nature of work that politicians do, a better long-term strategy for Starmer might have been to say something like: 'The Prime Minister has made a foolish error and very possibly a foolish law, if the line between acceptable and unnacceptable gatherings is so arbitrary and ambiguous that he can use a loophole to escape the penalty. This emphasises the urgent need for a public enquiry on the United Kingdom's response to the pandemic, and places the government's decisions squarely in the dock.'
As it is, he made his criticism as intensely personal, and moralising, as possible: 'Just as he has done throughout his life, he has damaged everyone and everything around him along the way.' It's very difficult to row back from this with any dignity.
P.S. If both Starmer *and* Cummings end up being fined I don't suppose Johnson would much mind. If Starmer resigns of course the pressure would be on Johnson to do the same.
That's correct IMV. And if you are going to go down the moralising, holier-than-thou line, ensure you cannot be accused of the same 'crime' you are moralising about.
It's a totally unforced error by Starmer and Labour.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
This is going to snowball into an intense period of journalists looking into all senior politicians behaviour throughout the covid period in the hope of seeking some spectacular resignations
As far as Boris is concerned I would not be surprised if he sought a VONC from his mps
🚨NEW: Starmer to make a statement on the Durham police investigation at 4pm. Understand he will offer his resignation if issued with a FPN. His team adamant he’ll be cleared & this an attempt to draw line between Starmer & Johnson that not all politicians are the same https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1523662844125843456
I hope Starmer does make this pledge. It's got a lot going for it imo.
I'm not sure. I know the consensus on here is that he would show him to be a man of principle, his confidence that he will not get fined / done anything wrong etc but there is another angle - alluded to by TSE - that it is seen as putting pressure on the Police not to fine him, having seen the ramifications of the Met giving BJ and Rishi a FPN.
I'm also not sure it gets rid of the hypocrisy charge. If he doesn't get a FPN because of a technicality let's say, he still looks shifty, it's just that he won't have resigned because he wasn't actually issued with a FPN.
Optics also count. I know many on here praise the efficiency of the Durham Constabulary (although that praise wasn't so evident when Don's trip to Barnard Castle was being discussed) but, with a Labour PCC in charge, it will be easy to spin the line - if he is cleared - that the Police were pressured to drop things.
He would be far better off just saying "I don't think I have done anything wrong but the Police are investigating and I will leave it at that."
Another thought occurs to me over the ridiculous 'the curry was late' nonsense. We know it was a pre arranged dinner 'YS to order'. Are we really to believe YS didn't contact the Indian In advance and say 'here's some great publicity for you. Takeaway for a party of 30 for the leader of the opposition required for 8.30 pm' and that the Indian takeaway wouldn't have absolutely ensured dinner for LOTO was hot, tasty and on schedule?? Is the position that YS got to 7 and said 'oh shit, i haven't ordered Keirs dinner!'
I hope you aren't anyone important if you think the world runs on that sort of Do you know who I am-ery. 30 meals is 30 meals regardless, and it anyway only takes one crypto Tory saboteur rice cook to delay the whole thing
I've never been accused of being anybody, no. I'm a benefit claimant in a little flat in Norwich. 30 meals is your profit for the week, it takes precedence over a Tikka Masala, pilau and bottle of coke for one in your kitchen planning for the night. And, frankly, the entire restaurant and hospitality industry bends over for the rich, powerful and famous and always have. They like to make money.
Sign of the state of UK politics. The last 2 leaders of each of the two main Parties have had their opponents desperate to keep them in their leadership positions.
Looking at the figures for the recent local elections the Lib Dems claim the following Conservative MPs would lose their seats ( assuming the same percentage results); Mary Robinson (Cheadle), William Wragg (Hazel Grove), Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton), Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon), John Redwood (Wokingham), Alex Chalk (Cheltenham), Steve Brine (Winchester), Elliott Colburn ( Carshalton and Wallingham), Andrew Jones (Harrogate and Knaresborough), and Bim Afolami (Hitchen and Harpended).
No Somerset?
Interesting. Perhaps the votes were in the wrong place. I will check.
🚨NEW: Starmer to make a statement on the Durham police investigation at 4pm. Understand he will offer his resignation if issued with a FPN. His team adamant he’ll be cleared & this an attempt to draw line between Starmer & Johnson that not all politicians are the same https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1523662844125843456
Twats.
Why?
He’s upset because this is bad news for the Tories.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
This could turn into a bit like the expenses scandal, where the media just scatter gunned everybody for every little thing and they were all smeared equally. When actually there was a range of bending of the rules, self enrichment within the rules and then there was outright criminal behaviour and corruption.
Durham will have to reopen Cummings now, any Tory want to comment?
I’ve asked this five times now.
As an ex-Tory who ignored it the first four times, no they won't.
Its only you talking about this. Cummings isn't a politician, he isn't in the news, he isn't even working for the government or the opposition. There will be no pressure to reopen that, and no news interest anymore if they did.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
This is going to snowball into an intense period of journalists looking into all senior politicians behaviour throughout the covid period in the hope of seeking some spectacular resignations
As far as Boris is concerned I would not be surprised if he sought a VONC from his mps
My thinking is that while there may be 54 MPs willing to vote against him, there’s not the 180 required to actually kick him out. So he engineers a vote shortly and buys himself another year, then resigns (or is forced out) next summer.
If I were Starmer, I don't think I'd offer such a hostage to fortune.
It’s a no lose gamble . Starmer would have to resign if he gets a FPN and this way if he does it will leave Labour in a less worse position . The Tories can keep their liar in chief and explain why he’s still there .
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
This could turn into a bit like the expenses scandal, where the media just scatter gunned everybody for every little thing and they were all smeared equally. When actually there was a range of bending of the rules, self enrichment within the rules and then there was outright criminal behaviour and corruption.
I expect this is going to get completely out of hand
If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well
Has it been made explicit that she being investigated by the police or is it just Starmer?
Questionnaires are being sent by Durham Police detectives to all attendees so yes, if it breached covid regulations, they will all receive FPN's and including Mary Foy, the local mop
Another thought occurs to me over the ridiculous 'the curry was late' nonsense. We know it was a pre arranged dinner 'YS to order'. Are we really to believe YS didn't contact the Indian In advance and say 'here's some great publicity for you. Takeaway for a party of 30 for the leader of the opposition required for 8.30 pm' and that the Indian takeaway wouldn't have absolutely ensured dinner for LOTO was hot, tasty and on schedule?? Is the position that YS got to 7 and said 'oh shit, i haven't ordered Keirs dinner!'
There's a rather obvious problem with that. PLumping publicly for one side in politics is often dangerous for a business. Especially a local one.
Well even if they didnt want the publicity, they aren't going to be late are they? It's almost certainly their biggest order of the night if not the month given nobody was supposed to be having boozy takeouts in big groups
So they were likely short staffed. Hence delays.
Well, that's the point. Not likely this was a last minute order so staffing not really an issue. But on reflection it's not my most insightful thought ever. Just strikes me as more crap that the curry was so late they'd done gone and finished all their work.
Durham will have to reopen Cummings now, any Tory want to comment?
I’ve asked this five times now.
As an ex-Tory who ignored it the first four times, no they won't.
Its only you talking about this. Cummings isn't a politician, he isn't in the news, he isn't even working for the government or the opposition. There will be no pressure to reopen that, and no news interest anymore if they did.
Also it's incredibly hard to work out what crime Dom actually committed - given when he went North.
Now you could probably doing him for reckless driving given his reason for going to Barnard Castle but that is now historic.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
This could turn into a bit like the expenses scandal, where the media just scatter gunned everybody for every little thing and they were all smeared equally. When actually there was a range of bending of the rules, self enrichment within the rules and then there was outright criminal behaviour and corruption.
The main thing that went right with the expenses scandal was that the attempts to make it into a party political thing backfired hilariously.
I'm thinking of a certain politician who thought that his B&O television was a trifle compared to duck ponds. Despite costing more.....
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
If it’s police investigated as wanted, and Starmer doesn’t get a FPN, what’s the attack line from the Tory’s and Daily Mail?
If they don’t have one (which would have to be attack on the police, they couldn’t blame the people who made all these different rules) its complete exoneration isn’t it Starmer would get a big bounce from it for sure, which his opponents would have gifted to him.
If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well
Has it been made explicit that she being investigated by the police or is it just Starmer?
Questionnaires are being sent by Durham Police detectives to all attendees so yes, if it breached covid regulations, they will all receive FPN's and including Mary Foy, the local mop
Judging by friends and family (many of whom have been seriously harsh about Boris) Starmer is now badly damaged, whatever
“They’re all the same”
“Bunch of wankers”
“Fuck them all”
Etc etc.
Starmer has lost his “honest but boring” USP. Which is pretty much all he had
Don't you mix with anybody smart and informed?
It's the view of most people who aren't blindly partisan. Like expenses. Dirty, cheating establishment crapping on us all. And for those that aren't just angry there's the fact BJ = arsehole has become accepted fact but disappointment and disillusionment that St Keir of the beer is too is a fresh wound. Tonight's poll might be interesting
I'd more say it's probably the view of most people who don't follow politics or who think about things only quite superficially.
Because comparing (i) a PM presiding over a culture of covid rule-breaking at Number 10, taking part in lots of it, at the height of lockdown, being fined once for it with more fines likely to come, and lying repeatedly to parliament about its very existence, inc pretending to be horrified when he found out about it, with (ii) a LOTO with a single what looks like genuine campaign working event during Tier 2 being investigated again, having been reviewed once already and deemed ok, not yet fined for it and probably won't be ... this is not for me a particularly subtle difference.
But I agree your point about expectations. Starmer is perceived to have ethics, whereas Johnson isn't, therefore he's probably going to get held to a higher standard by the public.
Looking at the figures for the recent local elections the Lib Dems claim the following Conservative MPs would lose their seats ( assuming the same percentage results); Mary Robinson (Cheadle), William Wragg (Hazel Grove), Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton), Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon), John Redwood (Wokingham), Alex Chalk (Cheltenham), Steve Brine (Winchester), Elliott Colburn ( Carshalton and Wallingham), Andrew Jones (Harrogate and Knaresborough), and Bim Afolami (Hitchen and Harpended).
No Somerset?
Interesting. Perhaps the votes were in the wrong place. I will check.
It appears that the list was the top 10 Conservatives not the whole lot. I think we can add Somerton and Frome, Taunton, Yeovil, Wells, and South Cambridgeshire. It is noticeable that they are mostly ex-Lib Dem seats.
I said this on Saturday when the story broke. If he’s fined, he’ll have to resign, so there’s no downside to saying he will. Obviously, it won’t lead to Johnson resigning, but the contrast will be there. And, if Starmer does end up having to step down, Labour gets a more politically savvy leader after Starmer has done most of the internal cleaning up. It’s a no lose for Labour.
Who is this much more politically savvy leader just sitting waiting around doing nothing for Labour? Starmer was the best of the bad bunch.
If Rishi Sunak got a FPN I don't see how SKS does not get one.
This is the trouble for Starmer, the Met have set an extremely low bar for FPN. Seems like a massive gamble as he may end up having to walk now over a beer and curry with people who wouldn't choose to socialise with anyway.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
This could turn into a bit like the expenses scandal, where the media just scatter gunned everybody for every little thing and they were all smeared equally. When actually there was a range of bending of the rules, self enrichment within the rules and then there was outright criminal behaviour and corruption.
I expect this is going to get completely out of hand
The fire will burn them all. Perhaps they'll think about imposing moronically twattish rules in future. Then again, they won't
As usual articles from this author make me laugh.Clearly TSE knows few lawyers if he thinks the profession as a whole has unusually high levels of integrity. To say that Starmer' is a very ethical person ignores entirely the way he has behaved over covid since becoming Labour leader. An ethical person would not have used a national emergency as an opportunity simlpy to gain party political advantage as Starmer did throughout the crisis. Having said that I think the chances of Starmer being prosecuted are minimal. If the Durham police were too inept to even try to prosecute Cummings they are unlikely to try with Starmer. We will see. Whatever happens I suspect most fairminded people will come away with the feeling that Starmer is a total hypocrite. They would, in my opinion be right.
I said this on Saturday when the story broke. If he’s fined, he’ll have to resign, so there’s no downside to saying he will. Obviously, it won’t lead to Johnson resigning, but the contrast will be there. And, if Starmer does end up having to step down, Labour gets a more politically savvy leader after Starmer has done most of the internal cleaning up. It’s a no lose for Labour.
Who is this much more politically savvy leader just sitting waiting around doing nothing for Labour? Starmer was the best of the bad bunch.
Ed Balls?
Ed Balls ain't coming back, just like David Miliband isn't either.
Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
I said this on Saturday when the story broke. If he’s fined, he’ll have to resign, so there’s no downside to saying he will. Obviously, it won’t lead to Johnson resigning, but the contrast will be there. And, if Starmer does end up having to step down, Labour gets a more politically savvy leader after Starmer has done most of the internal cleaning up. It’s a no lose for Labour.
Who is this much more politically savvy leader just sitting waiting around doing nothing for Labour? Starmer was the best of the bad bunch.
Ed Balls?
Ed Balls ain't coming back, just like David Miliband isn't either.
If Ed was to come back, it would probably have to be without the Balls, to meet the clamour for a female* leader
Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
Also, we don't know if other people still have further information.
I guess I'll say this for the last time but the markets are way behind on what is happening.
If Starmer resigns we get a shiny new Labour leader with all of the honeymoon potential up against a tainted, tawdry, PM. But I cannot see Boris Johnson resigning over this. He will only go if tory MPs boot him out and I don't see evidence for this right now.
Does this mean the next PM market WILL BE one of the current Labour pool? Of course not. But the current odds of 100/1+ on all the other Labour figures apart from SKS are ridiculously good value.
It's good thinking. I've done Streeting, Coop and Nando, small stakes big prices.
Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .
The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
Judging by friends and family (many of whom have been seriously harsh about Boris) Starmer is now badly damaged, whatever
“They’re all the same”
“Bunch of wankers”
“Fuck them all”
Etc etc.
Starmer has lost his “honest but boring” USP. Which is pretty much all he had
Don't you mix with anybody smart and informed?
It's the view of most people who aren't blindly partisan. Like expenses. Dirty, cheating establishment crapping on us all. And for those that aren't just angry there's the fact BJ = arsehole has become accepted fact but disappointment and disillusionment that St Keir of the beer is too is a fresh wound. Tonight's poll might be interesting
I'd more say it's probably the view of most people who don't follow politics or who think about things only quite superficially.
Because comparing (i) a PM presiding over a culture of covid rule-breaking at Number 10, taking part in lots of it, at the height of lockdown, being fined once for it with more fines likely to come, and lying repeatedly to parliament about its very existence, inc pretending to be horrified when he found out about it, with (ii) a LOTO with a single what looks like genuine campaign working event during Tier 2 being investigated again, having been reviewed once already and deemed ok, not yet fined for it and probably won't be ... this is not for me a particularly subtle difference.
But I agree your point about expectations. Starmer is perceived to have ethics, whereas Johnson isn't, therefore he's probably going to get held to a higher standard by the public.
Yes, I see that but the election will end up decided by the 'all the same' crowd as the politically interested and alert are likely in their camps to stay
Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
Is that the only attack line left, claim the police were bullied and beaten up by Keir flipping Starmer? hence they didn’t achieve justice and fairness? How would that sound from mail and Tory lips?
Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
The thinking seems to be that he can then use it against Johnson.
This would be a lot simpler if they'd simply followed the rules they'd put into law - or, better, not put them into law and just had it be strongly advised guidance.
Politics has become so unpredictable with so many extraordinary, unexpected and unlikely events happening that how anyone can predict the next GE is beyond me
One of the reasons I think Starmer doesn't think he's done anything wrong is because of what I've mentioned. These are people who he wouldn't normally socialise with. It's volunteer campaigners and local staffers in and around the constituency. So in his head it probably doesn't count as a social event, which is fair, but the cake fine set a low bar because the people around that table probably wouldn't choose to socialise with each other either and yet they still got a fine.
If Rishi Sunak got a FPN I don't see how SKS does not get one.
That is the nub of the problem. On the facts known Sunak was very unlucky and if he was Joe Public could challenge the decision but obviously couldn't whilst Big Dog was in position. If Starmer is treated more favourably than Sunak that will rebound to some degree as it will be brought to the public's attention. If he is treated similarly he will get an FPN and he is probably done for. How can he appeal if Sunak didn't? Best SKS can hope for is no FPN and some damage.
Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
If it’s police investigated as wanted, and Starmer doesn’t get a FPN, what’s the attack line from the Tory’s and Daily Mail?
If they don’t have one (which would have to be attack on the police, they couldn’t blame the people who made all these different rules) its complete exoneration isn’t it Starmer would get a big bounce from it for sure, which his opponents would have gifted to him.
Spot on. Your rabbit-senses have definitely sharpened back to their best in recent days.
If Starmer does not get a fixed penalty notice then the Met will have to reconsider their fixed penalty notices of the PM and others for the cake/work incident. Many office workers have a birhday cake interlude. It is part of working life
Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
It's such an easy way out as well for the Tories. "Starmer is using lawyerly intimidation tactics against the police". There's no easy comeback from that and if he gets away without a fine the stage is set that it's not because he wasn't guilty, but because he got special treatment as the LOTO.
If Starmer does not get a fixed penalty notice then the Met will have to reconsider their fixed penalty notices of the PM and others for the cake/work incident. Many office workers have a birhday cake interlude. It is part of working life
If Rishi Sunak got a FPN I don't see how SKS does not get one.
This is the trouble for Starmer, the Met have set an extremely low bar for FPN. Seems like a massive gamble as he may end up having to walk now over a beer and curry with people who wouldn't choose to socialise with anyway.
Yes it’s a low bar . I personally thought Johnson wouldn’t receive a FPN for that .
The difference is likely to be that the birthday was purely a social event , in Durham it was work that could have transitioned into social .
There’s now a lot of pressure on Durham police because they now know that their decision will have huge political ramifications. As opposed to the Met where Johnson never intimated he’d resign.
Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
The most important thing he is that Durham Police want this issue to disappear. I think it's a very brave thing SKS is rumoured to be announcing at 4pm
I hope Starmer does make this pledge. It's got a lot going for it imo.
I'm not sure. I know the consensus on here is that he would show him to be a man of principle, his confidence that he will not get fined / done anything wrong etc but there is another angle - alluded to by TSE - that it is seen as putting pressure on the Police not to fine him, having seen the ramifications of the Met giving BJ and Rishi a FPN.
I'm also not sure it gets rid of the hypocrisy charge. If he doesn't get a FPN because of a technicality let's say, he still looks shifty, it's just that he won't have resigned because he wasn't actually issued with a FPN.
Optics also count. I know many on here praise the efficiency of the Durham Constabulary (although that praise wasn't so evident when Don's trip to Barnard Castle was being discussed) but, with a Labour PCC in charge, it will be easy to spin the line - if he is cleared - that the Police were pressured to drop things.
He would be far better off just saying "I don't think I have done anything wrong but the Police are investigating and I will leave it at that."
To me it says he knows he's in the clear and has faith in the law. It's good strong front-foot politics.
Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.
I think I agree.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
This could turn into a bit like the expenses scandal, where the media just scatter gunned everybody for every little thing and they were all smeared equally. When actually there was a range of bending of the rules, self enrichment within the rules and then there was outright criminal behaviour and corruption.
I expect this is going to get completely out of hand
The fire will burn them all. Perhaps they'll think about imposing moronically twattish rules in future. Then again, they won't
I agree. What if this is just the beginning of the madness - which potential leadership candidate hasn’t been ambushed by a cake, curry, dinner party, BBQ, fund raiser, charity event etc etc etc etc or something under the various lock downs with different times different rules?
Obviously to be revealed by opposing party media the following week from just being installed in office by their party!
Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .
The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story
It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
One of the reasons I think Starmer doesn't think he's done anything wrong is because of what I've mentioned. These are people who he wouldn't normally socialise with. It's volunteer campaigners and local staffers in and around the constituency. So in his head it probably doesn't count as a social event, which is fair, but the cake fine set a low bar because the people around that table probably wouldn't choose to socialise with each other either and yet they still got a fine.
Yes. In his head, Starmer doesn't think the laws he voted to pass were meant for this situation. But they were. It was an idiotic policy and has caused untold misery. BJ, SKS etc getting fined if that occurs is the minimum they deserve for their part in it.
If Rishi Sunak got a FPN I don't see how SKS does not get one.
This is the trouble for Starmer, the Met have set an extremely low bar for FPN. Seems like a massive gamble as he may end up having to walk now over a beer and curry with people who wouldn't choose to socialise with anyway.
Yes it’s a low bar . I personally thought Johnson wouldn’t receive a FPN for that .
The difference is likely to be that the birthday was purely a social event , in Durham it was work that could have transitioned into social .
There’s now a lot of pressure on Durham police because they now know that their decision will have huge political ramifications. As opposed to the Met where Johnson never intimated he’d resign.
It's the beer and late finish which is why it meets the low cake bar set by the Met. If it was just a shit curry with people he didn't know and then buggered off back to London on the train at 8pm then there's no controversy. This is curry at 8-late, beers and now socialising with Angela Rayner (who publicly he has to count as a friend). All the Tory party need to say is "intimidation" and it taints the whole investigation and any decision not to issue a FPN.
One of the reasons I think Starmer doesn't think he's done anything wrong is because of what I've mentioned. These are people who he wouldn't normally socialise with. It's volunteer campaigners and local staffers in and around the constituency. So in his head it probably doesn't count as a social event, which is fair, but the cake fine set a low bar because the people around that table probably wouldn't choose to socialise with each other either and yet they still got a fine.
The thing is with all these incidents, in terms of actually preventing COVID spread, its all quite nonsensical. Stopping for 10 mins to sing happy birthday, when you all had COVID and worked week in week out in the same stuffy office environment for the previous year of the pandemic isn't going to add any significant risk to catching COVID.
What has been lost in all this nonsense about was the cake out of the tupperware, people left their protection screens for the zoom quiz etc, is actually the culture within #10 was really poor, people drinking to excess, total disregard for everything being said to the public, etc etc etc at a time of upmost importance that everybody was doing everything possible to come up with solutions to fast moving situations. And obviously the man who set that culture was Boris.
Comments
So 44 people with an average of £100k to burn, decided that giving it to Jolyon was a good idea. Nope, me neither.
Not any more.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1523662844125843456
✍️ Steerpike
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/starmer-i-ll-quit-if-i-m-guilty
FPT
Need to get a trolley jack or suchlike that can be pumped up, underneath it or in front of it at least. Get it onto trolley jack , be sure you do it so you can get it through doorways , but they are pretty maneouverable , imagine standing as it is now woudl be easiest way, just how you get jack underneath or if you can wiggle it onto it with some help. Be a tough job, easier to make it into a cabinet. Borrow from your local garage and have a few burly helpers if using trolley jack and wear sturdy boots.
https://twitter.com/snb19692/status/1523251546037035010?s=20&t=RJWoqLmDKlb4QBzsKdvMqQ
And stalking politicians around Westminister.....
https://twitter.com/snb19692/status/1523254186095390720?s=20&t=RJWoqLmDKlb4QBzsKdvMqQ
It really isn't on. Its harassment.
By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.
The hounds have been let loose.
They went back to work, it was a working dinner, the curry was late, no rules were broken
And we'll all move on to the next circus soon anyway.
“Bunch of wankers”
“Fuck them all”
Indeed. I feel the same about all your tedious characters.
https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1523664114832519168
It's a totally unforced error by Starmer and Labour.
As far as Boris is concerned I would not be surprised if he sought a VONC from his mps
I'm also not sure it gets rid of the hypocrisy charge. If he doesn't get a FPN because of a technicality let's say, he still looks shifty, it's just that he won't have resigned because he wasn't actually issued with a FPN.
Optics also count. I know many on here praise the efficiency of the Durham Constabulary (although that praise wasn't so evident when Don's trip to Barnard Castle was being discussed) but, with a Labour PCC in charge, it will be easy to spin the line - if he is cleared - that the Police were pressured to drop things.
He would be far better off just saying "I don't think I have done anything wrong but the Police are investigating and I will leave it at that."
30 meals is your profit for the week, it takes precedence over a Tikka Masala, pilau and bottle of coke for one in your kitchen planning for the night.
And, frankly, the entire restaurant and hospitality industry bends over for the rich, powerful and famous and always have. They like to make money.
I’ve asked this five times now.
Its only you talking about this. Cummings isn't a politician, he isn't in the news, he isn't even working for the government or the opposition. There will be no pressure to reopen that, and no news interest anymore if they did.
Why do you think that's a great political zinger, given that Cummings is probably disliked more by the Conservatives than he is by Labour?
Now you could probably doing him for reckless driving given his reason for going to Barnard Castle but that is now historic.
If SKS has to go, then taking Ange out too will offer a crumb of comfort.
I'm thinking of a certain politician who thought that his B&O television was a trifle compared to duck ponds. Despite costing more.....
If they don’t have one (which would have to be attack on the police, they couldn’t blame the people who made all these different rules) its complete exoneration isn’t it Starmer would get a big bounce from it for sure, which his opponents would have gifted to him.
Because comparing (i) a PM presiding over a culture of covid rule-breaking at Number 10, taking part in lots of it, at the height of lockdown, being fined once for it with more fines likely to come, and lying repeatedly to parliament about its very existence, inc pretending to be horrified when he found out about it, with (ii) a LOTO with a single what looks like genuine campaign working event during Tier 2 being investigated again, having been reviewed once already and deemed ok, not yet fined for it and probably won't be ... this is not for me a particularly subtle difference.
But I agree your point about expectations. Starmer is perceived to have ethics, whereas Johnson isn't, therefore he's probably going to get held to a higher standard by the public.
Bravo.
Let's make it a sparkly new PB cliche and retire the features, bugs, colour mes, not experts, not lawyers, heavy liftings, views and ad homs pronto.
Prthaps you are on ignore
Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?
Having said that I think the chances of Starmer being prosecuted are minimal. If the Durham police were too inept to even try to prosecute Cummings they are unlikely to try with Starmer. We will see.
Whatever happens I suspect most fairminded people will come away with the feeling that Starmer is a total hypocrite. They would, in my opinion be right.
Fame at last
*yes, I know, other definitions are available
Yep, excellent tip.
This would be a lot simpler if they'd simply followed the rules they'd put into law - or, better, not put them into law and just had it be strongly advised guidance.
The difference is likely to be that the birthday was purely a social event , in Durham it was work that could have transitioned into social .
There’s now a lot of pressure on Durham police because they now know that their decision will have huge political ramifications. As opposed to the Met where Johnson never intimated he’d resign.
And frankly it's very stupid
Obviously to be revealed by opposing party media the following week from just being installed in office by their party!
I knew this had Mandelson’s paws all over it
He has all the charisma of a Mop.
Her Mop is ready for the bin.
Mop in sex scandal with maid.
It's the gift that keeps on giving.
Next Stormont election on for sometime in December by the looks of it.
It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
What has been lost in all this nonsense about was the cake out of the tupperware, people left their protection screens for the zoom quiz etc, is actually the culture within #10 was really poor, people drinking to excess, total disregard for everything being said to the public, etc etc etc at a time of upmost importance that everybody was doing everything possible to come up with solutions to fast moving situations. And obviously the man who set that culture was Boris.