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Breaking: Starmer’s leadership? – politicalbetting.com
Breaking: Starmer’s leadership? – politicalbetting.com
EXCL: Keir Starmer is considering announcing that he would quit as Labour leader if found to have broken lockdown rulesw/@patrickkmaguire https://t.co/eMSDYaqXLb
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Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.
There's exceptional value to be had.
Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.
We're going to that very nice working man's restaurant, The Ivy on West Street.
If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.
I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.
Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.
Got some on him at 12 to be next PM.
Imho, it's ridiculously good value.
An argument will be concocted that Keir's breach was worse, or that because it was more hypocritical it was worse or that Boris has to lead the country during wartime so couldn't possibly resign or some other nonsense...
To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.
It’s not happening.
Which is why, although risky, the real value for next PM lies in the Labour pool not the Conservative one.
If SKS goes, Boris will not (I think) resign. It's just not his way to be moral.
A new Labour leader with pizzazz up against a tainter law-breaking PM? Almost certain to lose their majority.
Ergo, the value is in the Labour pool. From which, take your pick. They are all all on long long odds. Rachel Reeves at 100/1 is the shortest.
Which, for the logical reasons I have explained, is staggering value.
MPs to have announced retirement at next GE:
Nigel Adams, Con, Selby & Ainsty
Crispin Blunt, Con, Reigate
Charles Walker, Con, Broxbourne
Margaret Beckett, Lab, Derby South
Paul Blomfield, Lab, Sheffield Central
Ben Bradshaw, Lab, Exeter
Alex Cunningham, Lab, Stockton North
Kate Green, Lab, Stretford and Urmston
Harriet Harman, Lab, Camberwell & Peckham
Margaret Hodge, Lab, Barking
Barry Sheerman, Lab, Huddersfield
Alan Whitehead, Lab, Southampton Test
Rosie Winterton, Lab, Doncaster Central
Douglas Ross, Con, Moray
Wayne David, Lab, Caerphilly
I must have awoken in an alternate reality
Streeting seemingly has never been more popular.
Be interested to see in that story line from whom the chorus of 'That's just Boris, it's priced in with voters, let's concentrate on Ukraine and looming recession' comes. Wouldn't be surprised if Daily Mail zoomer world comes out with some guff about BJ showing persistence and stickability while SKS displays the lack of resolve and grit (aka not being a shameless shit) that proves he's unsuited to be pm.
Rules do apply to Starmer and if it were up to me he would already have gone.
While Labour are hamstrung over Currygate Johnson needs to call a snap election. Purdah would apply, so no more FPNs for Johnson, no Gray Report and the sword of Damocles still hanging over Starmer. A nailed on 20 to 40 seat majority. Surely the Aussies have worked this out. Then with a new mandate for Johnson all the bad news counts for nothing and Johnson is going nowhere. He can then ride economic turmoil for five years until the good times return.
At that point expect to see Starmer's inner George Carmen come out with a vengiance.
(Raab came very close to saying Starmer should resign before getting his brain into gear!).
*At the time of Beergate the rules were stage 2 which was more lax than stage 1which covered Partygate
There will be an arb in there somewhere.
My guess thought is that the next PM is a Conservative, PM exit date is summer ‘23, and election date is May ‘24.
On next Lab leader market, Andy Burnham is the new David Miliband.
Don't underestimate Jarvis.
66% SNP win
34% Con win
But that is largely based on polling before the SCons dropped into the teens.
Johnson being an arsehole is baked in, it's Keirs turn.
If SKS says this, an army of disaffected Corbynites, Daily Mail journalists, bounty hunters, Tories, trouble-makers and random nutters will be scrutinising everything he did for the last 2 years.
Looking for the incident that can be reported to the police for a FPN.
But you can all have a good 'larf if the next PM is Jeremy Hunt or whoever.
Deliberate, or unintended?
We have to consider this happening folks, both main party’s choosing new leaders at same time. Truss is heir apparent and will be up against one of the talented (northern speaking) ladies from the Labour front bench at the next election - which certainly favours Labour a lot more in that scenario than Boris v Starmer at next election. Anyone disagree?
When a Conservative friend gets in touch after the budget to say to me, 'wow Rachel Reeves was very impressive' I sat up and took notice.
She has all the credentials. Standout performer.
He'll side step it by going to Kyiv etc. etc. and talking about what really matters and getting on with governing Britain, and rolling back the Brexit rules etc. etc.
The only way there will be a new Conservative leader in this parliament is if tory MPs force Johnson out.
Starmer resigning or not will have no impact on Boris staying or going. Either Sue Gray is sufficiently embarrassing the letters go in, or it’s not. Put another way, Starmer resigning would be as meaningful as Rory Stewart et al throwing away the whip (and their careers). Starmer is a smart chap, he won’t be resigning.
This has moved on from being a lockdown story to a hypocrisy story. The only words Tories will use would be about hypocrisy.
It will be said to be a case of everyone broke the rules at some point, but Boris will be portrayed as the one who apologised and got on with the job, while Starmer was the hypocrite who had to resign due to his own hypocrisy.
The public will finally have their pound of flesh, a politician will have been forced out over this, just shamelessly not the PM.
Anyone expecting anything other than shamelessness from Johnson is living in the longest river into the Mediterranean.
Then, after a pause, he can announce "however, I recognise that in questions like this, notwithstanding the huge difference in the events in question, it would simply not be acceptable for a senior politician to stay in place if they are found to have broken rules by the police. Therefore etc etc"
Which makes me suspect that they'll only get a female leader if they cook up an all-female shortlist. Will Streeting accept that?
Horses are stupid animals that do stupid things. And we are even more stupid for jumping on top of them.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/nicola-wilson-falls-badminton-horse-7055295
https://www.horseandhound.co.uk/news/caroline-march-burnham-market-fall-update-784448
(If he has though I'm certain he'll resign)
The problem for Highland and Moray Tories is that nobody else wants to work with them.
Please note that “vote share” means little in STV elections. What matters is preferences. The SCons getting slightly more first prefs is useless if simultaneously all their 2nd, 3rd, 4th prefs just disappear.
If he does go deep into the specifics as you said laying out his own spin, then wouldn't that be said to be him attempting to prejudice the investigation which politicians aren't meant to do?
Will it be nuclear destruction? New covid with 100% mortality? Aliens?
We don't know. But it WILL be bad...
Ironically that pressure might make a lone man running against multiple women the favourite again next time, as happened with Starmer.
Basically, enormous amounts of police time is being wasted on absolute trivia on both sides.
And it all encourages still more allegations of the flouting of lockdown regulations to be reported.
I have not much sympathy for either Boris or SKS -- they should both go.
They ought to remain competitive in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire and Argyll will become interesting if labour recover at the SNPs expense rather than trading votes with the Tories. D and G I fancy being their impregnable last stand bastion
The Tottenham Hotspur Supporters’ Trust has told fans who chanted “sign on” at Anfield that using joblessness and poverty to wind-up opposing supporters is not acceptable.
The chant, sung to the tune of You’ll Never Walk Alone, has been directed at Liverpool and Everton fans since the 1980s, when Merseyside suffered a severe economic recession with Margaret Thatcher as prime minister. It could be heard again during Saturday’s 1-1 draw between Tottenham and Liverpool.
To be honest, I only bother going to Anfield to sing that.
The second consideration is it will be a woman. Reeves, Philpson, Nandy or Cooper. A toss up between them I think.
Something from one of the political biographies I read, can’t remember which one, whatever you think of them today, they become different when they become leader, the phrase in the book was “as soon as the crown went on his head he suddenly looked and sounded very different.”
But with Boris going, Labour getting a leader from up North makes it strong in my book Labour will make hay in the red wall come the election.
It’s hysterical. The Daily Mail have not only destroyed Boris Johnson’s premiership, but Labour can be left in a far stronger place to do well in the next general election from the crowning of their new queen 😂
Hat. Coat (door slams)
Can you imagine the moral authority that would give Starmer to hammer Boris with?
And as for coasts, borders and Perthshire, that would require the Tories to become pro-farming, pro-fisheries and pro-business. All recent traffic has been entirely in the opposite direction.
Nope, the Scottish centre-right will recover post-independence, not pre-.