Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Breaking: Starmer’s leadership? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
Breaking: Starmer’s leadership? – politicalbetting.com

EXCL: Keir Starmer is considering announcing that he would quit as Labour leader if found to have broken lockdown rulesw/@patrickkmaguire https://t.co/eMSDYaqXLb

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,144

    I don't wish to alarm PBers but OGH is currently on a short break, and I'm looking after PB for the next few days.

    Good to hear. Nothing ever happens when OGH is away.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,147
    Sandpit said:

    I don't wish to alarm PBers but OGH is currently on a short break, and I'm looking after PB for the next few days.

    Good to hear. Nothing ever happens when OGH is away.
    I'm meeting JohnO tomorrow, for our regular PB Tory lunch, nothing better happen during that lunch.

    We're going to that very nice working man's restaurant, The Ivy on West Street.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,409
    I'd prefer Starmer to stay.

    Got some on him at 12 to be next PM.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    edited May 9
    The integrity line is lamentable. Nobody cares if a lawbreaker taking the piss out of us has a puffed up sense of personal integrity (should that be the outcome)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    p.s. You can still get 100/1 on those women.

    Imho, it's ridiculously good value.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,423
    "Horrible tautology" is also a tautology.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,147
    Endillion said:

    "Horrible tautology" is also a tautology.

    I know. That’s why I used it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,388
    Boris Johnson is not going to resign because Keir Starmer does. He will not care one iota about the optics.

    An argument will be concocted that Keir's breach was worse, or that because it was more hypocritical it was worse or that Boris has to lead the country during wartime so couldn't possibly resign or some other nonsense...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    edited May 9
    Clever by Starmer to let the speculation build about him potentially saying he'll resign if given a fine. It gives the impression that he would without actually having to commit to it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,464
    If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    Dear me, the hapless Tories are in serious danger of being completely outfoxed here.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 872
    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    Labour don't have a great record on electing female leaders, unfortunately.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    I just don’t understand why anyone would think Boris Johnson cares. “pressure to quit”, “optics”, “intolerable”? Have you not been paying attention during the last 5 years? Johnson simply doesn’t care what other people think, and he has no conscience.

    Exactly.

    Which is why, although risky, the real value for next PM lies in the Labour pool not the Conservative one.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,388
    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    Emily Thornberry at 999/1 for next PM. Probably priced about right, but I would so love to win a 999/1 bet.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    Anger over hypocrisy, taking the piss and law breaking > oh look at his massive integrity
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 9

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    That's all good apart from the final line.

    If SKS goes, Boris will not (I think) resign. It's just not his way to be moral.

    A new Labour leader with pizzazz up against a tainter law-breaking PM? Almost certain to lose their majority.

    Ergo, the value is in the Labour pool. From which, take your pick. They are all all on long long odds. Rachel Reeves at 100/1 is the shortest.

    Which, for the logical reasons I have explained, is staggering value.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    edited May 9

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
    He’s standing down irrespective.

    MPs to have announced retirement at next GE:

    Nigel Adams, Con, Selby & Ainsty
    Crispin Blunt, Con, Reigate
    Charles Walker, Con, Broxbourne
    Margaret Beckett, Lab, Derby South
    Paul Blomfield, Lab, Sheffield Central
    Ben Bradshaw, Lab, Exeter
    Alex Cunningham, Lab, Stockton North
    Kate Green, Lab, Stretford and Urmston
    Harriet Harman, Lab, Camberwell & Peckham
    Margaret Hodge, Lab, Barking
    Barry Sheerman, Lab, Huddersfield
    Alan Whitehead, Lab, Southampton Test
    Rosie Winterton, Lab, Doncaster Central

    Douglas Ross, Con, Moray

    Wayne David, Lab, Caerphilly
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    rkrkrk said:

    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    Emily Thornberry at 999/1 for next PM. Probably priced about right, but I would so love to win a 999/1 bet.
    Compulsory po faced dinner parties in Islington for all citizens and deportation of white van drivers
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Starmer might be setting up a Labour PM with this move ... self-immolation for the greater good.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,796
    TSE said: "Yesterday I speculated that Starmer would quit if he received a fixed penalty notice, I based this on the unmatched high levels of personal integrity that lawyers have.... "

    I must have awoken in an alternate reality :D
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,282

    The integrity line is lamentable. Nobody cares if a lawbreaker taking the piss out of us has a puffed up sense of personal integrity (should that be the outcome)

    Why is it lamentable ? Just because Johnson has set the bar so low!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    One thing that is amusing is how quickly those on the left have stopped talking about Starmer as next PM and are now rapidly debating as to who is the next 'great white hope' to get them elected.

    Streeting seemingly has never been more popular.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,027

    I just don’t understand why anyone would think Boris Johnson cares. “pressure to quit”, “optics”, “intolerable”? Have you not been paying attention during the last 5 years? Johnson simply doesn’t care what other people think, and he has no conscience.

    Aye, indeed.
    Be interested to see in that story line from whom the chorus of 'That's just Boris, it's priced in with voters, let's concentrate on Ukraine and looming recession' comes. Wouldn't be surprised if Daily Mail zoomer world comes out with some guff about BJ showing persistence and stickability while SKS displays the lack of resolve and grit (aka not being a shameless shit) that proves he's unsuited to be pm.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,579
    I don't see that Johnson has to go. He has already nailed his colours to the mast. Rules don't apply to him and the voters don't mind.

    Rules do apply to Starmer and if it were up to me he would already have gone.

    While Labour are hamstrung over Currygate Johnson needs to call a snap election. Purdah would apply, so no more FPNs for Johnson, no Gray Report and the sword of Damocles still hanging over Starmer. A nailed on 20 to 40 seat majority. Surely the Aussies have worked this out. Then with a new mandate for Johnson all the bad news counts for nothing and Johnson is going nowhere. He can then ride economic turmoil for five years until the good times return.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,286
    The danger will be to Johnson when/If Beergate is found not to have broken the rules*.

    At that point expect to see Starmer's inner George Carmen come out with a vengiance.

    (Raab came very close to saying Starmer should resign before getting his brain into gear!).

    *At the time of Beergate the rules were stage 2 which was more lax than stage 1which covered Partygate
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
    He’s standing down irrespective.

    MPs to have announced retirement at next GE:

    Nigel Adams, Con, Selby & Ainsty
    Crispin Blunt, Con, Reigate
    Charles Walker, Con, Broxbourne
    Margaret Beckett, Lab, Derby South
    Paul Blomfield, Lab, Sheffield Central
    Ben Bradshaw, Lab, Exeter
    Alex Cunningham, Lab, Stockton North
    Kate Green, Lab, Stretford and Urmston
    Harriet Harman, Lab, Camberwell & Peckham
    Margaret Hodge, Lab, Barking
    Barry Sheerman, Lab, Huddersfield
    Alan Whitehead, Lab, Southampton Test
    Rosie Winterton, Lab, Doncaster Central

    Douglas Ross, Con, Moray

    Wayne David, Lab, Caerphilly
    Ah id missed that, although I guessed he would be as there would be massive Scot Tory pushback on Moray disappearing if not
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,144
    edited May 9
    The things to be looking at now, are the next Lab leader, PM exit date, next election date, and next PM markets as a whole.

    There will be an arb in there somewhere.

    My guess thought is that the next PM is a Conservative, PM exit date is summer ‘23, and election date is May ‘24.

    On next Lab leader market, Andy Burnham is the new David Miliband.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    I think a first LGBT leader would counteract this to some extent, as would a first BAME leader. We saw that with Buttigieg in the US when the Dems were talking about needing a female candidate.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    I don't see that Johnson has to go. He has already nailed his colours to the mast. Rules don't apply to him and the voters don't mind.

    Rules do apply to Starmer and if it were up to me he would already have gone.

    While Labour are hamstrung over Currygate Johnson needs to call a snap election. Purdah would apply, so no more FPNs for Johnson, no Gray Report and the sword of Damocles still hanging over Starmer. A nailed on 20 to 40 seat majority. Surely the Aussies have worked this out. Then with a new mandate for Johnson all the bad news counts for nothing and Johnson is going nowhere. He can then ride economic turmoil for five years until the good times return.

    As you thought the Savile slur was 'very funny' I will, with respect, take your soundings with a large pinch of salt.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 716
    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    They don't. They need to pick a person optimal to the times.

    Don't underestimate Jarvis.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
    Moray is indeed being split up between three new seats. The biggest chunk is going into the new Highland East and Elgin seat. Baxter rates this as:

    66% SNP win
    34% Con win

    But that is largely based on polling before the SCons dropped into the teens.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    rkrkrk said:

    Boris Johnson is not going to resign because Keir Starmer does. He will not care one iota about the optics.

    An argument will be concocted that Keir's breach was worse, or that because it was more hypocritical it was worse or that Boris has to lead the country during wartime so couldn't possibly resign or some other nonsense...

    It does though mean that they can avoid the inevitable interview questions and can also keep focusing on partygate. As they did when they made a virtue of kicking out bad guys from the party when the Tories were hanging on to the likes of Owen Paterson.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    nico679 said:

    The integrity line is lamentable. Nobody cares if a lawbreaker taking the piss out of us has a puffed up sense of personal integrity (should that be the outcome)

    Why is it lamentable ? Just because Johnson has set the bar so low!
    It's lamentable because he'd be quitting because he'd broken lockdown laws he voted to unecessarily impose on us and wanted to be even tougher. Who gives a shit if he thinks he's got integrity?!
    Johnson being an arsehole is baked in, it's Keirs turn.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584

    If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well

    But the rules were so crazy ambiguous that there are probably more borderline incidents that SKS was involved in.

    If SKS says this, an army of disaffected Corbynites, Daily Mail journalists, bounty hunters, Tories, trouble-makers and random nutters will be scrutinising everything he did for the last 2 years.

    Looking for the incident that can be reported to the police for a FPN.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    If I do win on this, I won't crow about it but please don't say you weren't given plenty of notice to bet. The odds are the best I've seen in years. Markets aren't engaging brains and thinking straight.

    But you can all have a good 'larf if the next PM is Jeremy Hunt or whoever.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    Sandpit said:

    The things to be looking at now, are the next Lab leader, PM exit date, next election date, and next PM markets as a whole.

    There will be an arb in there somewhere.

    My guess thought is that the next PM is a Conservative, PM exit date is summer ‘23, and election date is May ‘24.

    On next Lab leader market, Andy Burnham is the new David Miliband.

    Which of the many kings over water is on the next boat?!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,576
    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    I agree with you TSE, if Starmer resigns, Boris will follow, though Boris will likely wait a fortnight to confirm his own and the Tory ratings are going through the floor faster than Cummings can post a 🛒

    We have to consider this happening folks, both main party’s choosing new leaders at same time. Truss is heir apparent and will be up against one of the talented (northern speaking) ladies from the Labour front bench at the next election - which certainly favours Labour a lot more in that scenario than Boris v Starmer at next election. Anyone disagree?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955

    If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well

    But the rules were so crazy ambiguous that there are probably more borderline incidents that SKS was involved in.

    If SKS says this, an army of disaffected Corbynites, Daily Mail journalists, bounty hunters, Tories, trouble-makers and random nutters will be scrutinising everything he did for the last 2 years.

    Looking for the incident that can be reported to the police for a FPN.
    Especially if it's an activist Tory PCC and chief constable with an axe to grind
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,579
    Heathener said:

    I don't see that Johnson has to go. He has already nailed his colours to the mast. Rules don't apply to him and the voters don't mind.

    Rules do apply to Starmer and if it were up to me he would already have gone.

    While Labour are hamstrung over Currygate Johnson needs to call a snap election. Purdah would apply, so no more FPNs for Johnson, no Gray Report and the sword of Damocles still hanging over Starmer. A nailed on 20 to 40 seat majority. Surely the Aussies have worked this out. Then with a new mandate for Johnson all the bad news counts for nothing and Johnson is going nowhere. He can then ride economic turmoil for five years until the good times return.

    As you thought the Savile slur was 'very funny' I will, with respect, take your soundings with a large pinch of salt.
    Do you dispute this wouldn't form part of Johnson's thinking?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.


    Don't underestimate Jarvis.
    I really don't think Dan would a) want it and b) be up to it. He's had too many problems to deal with.

    When a Conservative friend gets in touch after the budget to say to me, 'wow Rachel Reeves was very impressive' I sat up and took notice.

    She has all the credentials. Standout performer.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 820

    If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well

    But the rules were so crazy ambiguous that there are probably more borderline incidents that SKS was involved in.

    If SKS says this, an army of disaffected Corbynites, Daily Mail journalists, bounty hunters, Tories, trouble-makers and random nutters will be scrutinising everything he did for the last 2 years.

    Looking for the incident that can be reported to the police for a FPN.
    Especially if it's an activist Tory PCC and chief constable with an axe to grind
    PCCs have no operational role.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    I agree with you TSE, if Starmer resigns, Boris will follow,

    I don't think there is a snowball's chance of Boris resigning. He will be laughing his head off behind those £20,000 curtains.

    He'll side step it by going to Kyiv etc. etc. and talking about what really matters and getting on with governing Britain, and rolling back the Brexit rules etc. etc.

    The only way there will be a new Conservative leader in this parliament is if tory MPs force Johnson out.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,743
    This is a far from ideal situation for Labour. A pledge to resign is probably the best they can go with at the moment - at least it creates a contrast with Johnson. Unfortunately whichever way you cut it this lame ducks the opposition until the issue has been resolved.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,943
    Strange that anyone can simultaneously say that both parties will imminently lose their leaders but that they also know the outcome of the next election two years away, despite not knowing who either new leader will be.

    Starmer resigning or not will have no impact on Boris staying or going. Either Sue Gray is sufficiently embarrassing the letters go in, or it’s not. Put another way, Starmer resigning would be as meaningful as Rory Stewart et al throwing away the whip (and their careers). Starmer is a smart chap, he won’t be resigning.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,579

    If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well

    But the rules were so crazy ambiguous that there are probably more borderline incidents that SKS was involved in.

    If SKS says this, an army of disaffected Corbynites, Daily Mail journalists, bounty hunters, Tories, trouble-makers and random nutters will be scrutinising everything he did for the last 2 years.

    Looking for the incident that can be reported to the police for a FPN.
    We are in Trumpland if the police allow themselves down this route. Once is one thing...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,576

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
    They certainly didn't look a gift horse in the mouth.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    Roger said:

    The danger will be to Johnson when/If Beergate is found not to have broken the rules*.

    At that point expect to see Starmer's inner George Carmen come out with a vengiance.

    (Raab came very close to saying Starmer should resign before getting his brain into gear!).

    *At the time of Beergate the rules were stage 2 which was more lax than stage 1which covered Partygate

    Any speech that promises to resign if found to break the rules also needs to take on the fact pattern aggressively - he needs to start by laying out all the differences (the real legal ones, but also the optics) between the curry on the campaign trail and the multiple actual parties complete with DJs, karaoke and suitcases at Downing Street. He needs to lay this on thick so that the narrative sticks.

    Then, after a pause, he can announce "however, I recognise that in questions like this, notwithstanding the huge difference in the events in question, it would simply not be acceptable for a senior politician to stay in place if they are found to have broken rules by the police. Therefore etc etc"
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    edited May 9
    Heathener said:

    If I do win on this, I won't crow about it but please don't say you weren't given plenty of notice to bet. The odds are the best I've seen in years. Markets aren't engaging brains and thinking straight.

    But you can all have a good 'larf if the next PM is Jeremy Hunt or whoever.

    The very best of luck to you. But you do realise the whole industry is rigged, don’t you? If and when you win big your account is simply closed, or you are restricted to penny stakes. Don’t say you weren’t warned 😉
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
    Moray is indeed being split up between three new seats. The biggest chunk is going into the new Highland East and Elgin seat. Baxter rates this as:

    66% SNP win
    34% Con win

    But that is largely based on polling before the SCons dropped into the teens.
    Yeah. Although Moray was the only area their vote share increased from 2017 (albeit fractionally) aside from Dumfries and Galloway. They also held up ok in Highland. So it's not where the votes are leaking at the moment (Edinburgh, the central belt especially)
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424
    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    Labour don't have a great record on electing female leaders, unfortunately.
    It's worse than never having elected a female leader - no woman has ever beaten any man in any Labour leadership election.

    Which makes me suspect that they'll only get a female leader if they cook up an all-female shortlist. Will Streeting accept that?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,507
    edited May 9

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Nicola Wilson. Given the severity I'm going with unintended. Is the second such accident recently in eventing (Caroline March is heading to Stoke Mandeville right now).

    Horses are stupid animals that do stupid things. And we are even more stupid for jumping on top of them.

    https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/nicola-wilson-falls-badminton-horse-7055295

    https://www.horseandhound.co.uk/news/caroline-march-burnham-market-fall-update-784448
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955

    If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well

    But the rules were so crazy ambiguous that there are probably more borderline incidents that SKS was involved in.

    If SKS says this, an army of disaffected Corbynites, Daily Mail journalists, bounty hunters, Tories, trouble-makers and random nutters will be scrutinising everything he did for the last 2 years.

    Looking for the incident that can be reported to the police for a FPN.
    Especially if it's an activist Tory PCC and chief constable with an axe to grind
    PCCs have no operational role.

    But they do have influence. Even though they shouldn't. Conversations behind closed doors,
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,286
    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    I'd say Lisa Nandy though I'd put the chances of Starmer being found to have broken the rules at close to zero.

    (If he has though I'm certain he'll resign)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
    I suspect foal play.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,796
    Foxy said:

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
    I suspect foal play.
    Whatever will they trot out next?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    edited May 9

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
    Moray is indeed being split up between three new seats. The biggest chunk is going into the new Highland East and Elgin seat. Baxter rates this as:

    66% SNP win
    34% Con win

    But that is largely based on polling before the SCons dropped into the teens.
    Yeah. Although Moray was the only area their vote share increased from 2017 (albeit fractionally) aside from Dumfries and Galloway. They also held up ok in Highland. So it's not where the votes are leaking at the moment (Edinburgh, the central belt especially)
    Yes, both Edinburgh and Glasgow were absolute horror shows for the local Conservatives. Brexit really undermined them, but the self-inflicted blows from their supposed colleagues in London just never stop. They really ought to resurrect the old “Progressives” brand.

    The problem for Highland and Moray Tories is that nobody else wants to work with them.

    Please note that “vote share” means little in STV elections. What matters is preferences. The SCons getting slightly more first prefs is useless if simultaneously all their 2nd, 3rd, 4th prefs just disappear.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    Foxy said:

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
    I suspect foal play.
    The whole thing is a 'mare
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    The danger will be to Johnson when/If Beergate is found not to have broken the rules*.

    At that point expect to see Starmer's inner George Carmen come out with a vengiance.

    (Raab came very close to saying Starmer should resign before getting his brain into gear!).

    *At the time of Beergate the rules were stage 2 which was more lax than stage 1which covered Partygate

    Any speech that promises to resign if found to break the rules also needs to take on the fact pattern aggressively - he needs to start by laying out all the differences (the real legal ones, but also the optics) between the curry on the campaign trail and the multiple actual parties complete with DJs, karaoke and suitcases at Downing Street. He needs to lay this on thick so that the narrative sticks.

    Then, after a pause, he can announce "however, I recognise that in questions like this, notwithstanding the huge difference in the events in question, it would simply not be acceptable for a senior politician to stay in place if they are found to have broken rules by the police. Therefore etc etc"
    Isn't the principle though that politicians don't talk about the specifics of Police investigations?

    If he does go deep into the specifics as you said laying out his own spin, then wouldn't that be said to be him attempting to prejudice the investigation which politicians aren't meant to do?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,466

    I don't wish to alarm PBers but OGH is currently on a short break, and I'm looking after PB for the next few days.

    Feck, its been nice knowing you all.

    Will it be nuclear destruction? New covid with 100% mortality? Aliens?

    We don't know. But it WILL be bad...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,743
    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    The danger will be to Johnson when/If Beergate is found not to have broken the rules*.

    At that point expect to see Starmer's inner George Carmen come out with a vengiance.

    (Raab came very close to saying Starmer should resign before getting his brain into gear!).

    *At the time of Beergate the rules were stage 2 which was more lax than stage 1which covered Partygate

    Any speech that promises to resign if found to break the rules also needs to take on the fact pattern aggressively - he needs to start by laying out all the differences (the real legal ones, but also the optics) between the curry on the campaign trail and the multiple actual parties complete with DJs, karaoke and suitcases at Downing Street. He needs to lay this on thick so that the narrative sticks.

    Then, after a pause, he can announce "however, I recognise that in questions like this, notwithstanding the huge difference in the events in question, it would simply not be acceptable for a senior politician to stay in place if they are found to have broken rules by the police. Therefore etc etc"
    I disagree. There’s nothing to be gained from arguing about the equivalency or not between No 10 and the Durham Event. It looks mealy mouthed. Labour have been trying this line for the past day or so and I’m afraid it sounds rather panicked and defensive. IMHO just keep it to co-operating, the resignation pledge (if they go for that) and saying you don’t believe you did anything wrong. Then wait to see what comes out in the wash.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    Applicant said:

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    Labour don't have a great record on electing female leaders, unfortunately.
    It's worse than never having elected a female leader - no woman has ever beaten any man in any Labour leadership election.

    Which makes me suspect that they'll only get a female leader if they cook up an all-female shortlist. Will Streeting accept that?
    Starmer didn't, meaning he ran effectively alone against multiple women who split the "next leader must be a woman" vote.

    Ironically that pressure might make a lone man running against multiple women the favourite again next time, as happened with Starmer.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584

    If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well

    But the rules were so crazy ambiguous that there are probably more borderline incidents that SKS was involved in.

    If SKS says this, an army of disaffected Corbynites, Daily Mail journalists, bounty hunters, Tories, trouble-makers and random nutters will be scrutinising everything he did for the last 2 years.

    Looking for the incident that can be reported to the police for a FPN.
    We are in Trumpland if the police allow themselves down this route. Once is one thing...
    The whole crazy situation is like something out Armando Iannucci.

    Basically, enormous amounts of police time is being wasted on absolute trivia on both sides.

    And it all encourages still more allegations of the flouting of lockdown regulations to be reported.

    I have not much sympathy for either Boris or SKS -- they should both go.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313

    Foxy said:

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
    I suspect foal play.
    The whole thing is a 'mare
    I’d not like being the editor saddled with that story.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    The danger will be to Johnson when/If Beergate is found not to have broken the rules*.

    At that point expect to see Starmer's inner George Carmen come out with a vengiance.

    (Raab came very close to saying Starmer should resign before getting his brain into gear!).

    *At the time of Beergate the rules were stage 2 which was more lax than stage 1which covered Partygate

    Any speech that promises to resign if found to break the rules also needs to take on the fact pattern aggressively - he needs to start by laying out all the differences (the real legal ones, but also the optics) between the curry on the campaign trail and the multiple actual parties complete with DJs, karaoke and suitcases at Downing Street. He needs to lay this on thick so that the narrative sticks.

    Then, after a pause, he can announce "however, I recognise that in questions like this, notwithstanding the huge difference in the events in question, it would simply not be acceptable for a senior politician to stay in place if they are found to have broken rules by the police. Therefore etc etc"
    Isn't the principle though that politicians don't talk about the specifics of Police investigations?

    If he does go deep into the specifics as you said laying out his own spin, then wouldn't that be said to be him attempting to prejudice the investigation which politicians aren't meant to do?
    In this case he needn't discuss anything that's not already in the public domain, and he need not go into detail as to why he doesn't think the curry broke the rules - he's already said something along the lines of being confident no rules were broken (I really hate that use of the passive, it looks shifty and evokes Boris) but the police need to do their job. He can spend 90% of the time on the known facts of the Downing St parties.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
    Moray is indeed being split up between three new seats. The biggest chunk is going into the new Highland East and Elgin seat. Baxter rates this as:

    66% SNP win
    34% Con win

    But that is largely based on polling before the SCons dropped into the teens.
    Yeah. Although Moray was the only area their vote share increased from 2017 (albeit fractionally) aside from Dumfries and Galloway. They also held up ok in Highland. So it's not where the votes are leaking at the moment (Edinburgh, the central belt especially)
    Yes, both Edinburgh and Glasgow were absolute horror shows for the local Conservatives. Brexit really undermined them, but the self-inflicted blows from their supposed colleagues in London just never stop. They really ought to resurrect the old “Progressives” brand.

    The problem for Highland and Moray Tories is that nobody else wants to work with them.
    Yeah, they've got to make some choices. I think they'd be better off with Murdo in charge and becoming the party of the coasts and borders (and perthshire).
    They ought to remain competitive in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire and Argyll will become interesting if labour recover at the SNPs expense rather than trading votes with the Tories. D and G I fancy being their impregnable last stand bastion
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/09/tottenham-fans-trust-disappointed-with-sign-on-chants-at-anfield-liverpool

    The Tottenham Hotspur Supporters’ Trust has told fans who chanted “sign on” at Anfield that using joblessness and poverty to wind-up opposing supporters is not acceptable.

    The chant, sung to the tune of You’ll Never Walk Alone, has been directed at Liverpool and Everton fans since the 1980s, when Merseyside suffered a severe economic recession with Margaret Thatcher as prime minister. It could be heard again during Saturday’s 1-1 draw between Tottenham and Liverpool.


    To be honest, I only bother going to Anfield to sing that. :tongue:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    Labour losing a lawyerly leader unexpectedly mid-term…
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    The danger will be to Johnson when/If Beergate is found not to have broken the rules*.

    At that point expect to see Starmer's inner George Carmen come out with a vengiance.

    (Raab came very close to saying Starmer should resign before getting his brain into gear!).

    *At the time of Beergate the rules were stage 2 which was more lax than stage 1which covered Partygate

    Any speech that promises to resign if found to break the rules also needs to take on the fact pattern aggressively - he needs to start by laying out all the differences (the real legal ones, but also the optics) between the curry on the campaign trail and the multiple actual parties complete with DJs, karaoke and suitcases at Downing Street. He needs to lay this on thick so that the narrative sticks.

    Then, after a pause, he can announce "however, I recognise that in questions like this, notwithstanding the huge difference in the events in question, it would simply not be acceptable for a senior politician to stay in place if they are found to have broken rules by the police. Therefore etc etc"
    I disagree. There’s nothing to be gained from arguing about the equivalency or not between No 10 and the Durham Event. It looks mealy mouthed. Labour have been trying this line for the past day or so and I’m afraid it sounds rather panicked and defensive. IMHO just keep it to co-operating, the resignation pledge (if they go for that) and saying you don’t believe you did anything wrong. Then wait to see what comes out in the wash.
    That's just yielding the floor to the Tories. Something Labour do too often. Look how the Tories jumped straight to the "hijacked by a cake" narrative. Yes it annoyed lots of people, yes it looked tone deaf, but it stuck. Just like much of the other spin they come out with. Because journalists run on narrative and nature abhors a vacuum. Stay quiet and the government media will fill the silence with a narrative that says beergate was as bad as the Downing St parties. In fact "worse, because it's hypocritical".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209
    Jonathan said:

    Labour losing a lawyerly leader unexpectedly mid-term…

    Cryptic crossword clue? Hmm.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661

    Foxy said:

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
    I suspect foal play.
    The whole thing is a 'mare
    I'm person who wrote that is laughing themselves hoarse.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    Foxy said:

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
    I suspect foal play.
    The whole thing is a 'mare
    I’d not like being the editor saddled with that story.
    Bit dog in the manger.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,053
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/09/tottenham-fans-trust-disappointed-with-sign-on-chants-at-anfield-liverpool

    The Tottenham Hotspur Supporters’ Trust has told fans who chanted “sign on” at Anfield that using joblessness and poverty to wind-up opposing supporters is not acceptable.

    The chant, sung to the tune of You’ll Never Walk Alone, has been directed at Liverpool and Everton fans since the 1980s, when Merseyside suffered a severe economic recession with Margaret Thatcher as prime minister. It could be heard again during Saturday’s 1-1 draw between Tottenham and Liverpool.


    To be honest, I only bother going to Anfield to sing that. :tongue:

    I thought it was What's it like to have no jobs to the tune of Guide me O Thou great redeemer
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Keir seems like the kind of guy that reminds the teacher to give homework out
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,286
    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    The danger will be to Johnson when/If Beergate is found not to have broken the rules*.

    At that point expect to see Starmer's inner George Carmen come out with a vengiance.

    (Raab came very close to saying Starmer should resign before getting his brain into gear!).

    *At the time of Beergate the rules were stage 2 which was more lax than stage 1which covered Partygate

    Any speech that promises to resign if found to break the rules also needs to take on the fact pattern aggressively - he needs to start by laying out all the differences (the real legal ones, but also the optics) between the curry on the campaign trail and the multiple actual parties complete with DJs, karaoke and suitcases at Downing Street. He needs to lay this on thick so that the narrative sticks.

    Then, after a pause, he can announce "however, I recognise that in questions like this, notwithstanding the huge difference in the events in question, it would simply not be acceptable for a senior politician to stay in place if they are found to have broken rules by the police. Therefore etc etc"
    Spot on
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,136

    Anyone expecting anything other than shamelessness from Johnson is living in the longest river into the Mediterranean.

    You won't be on your Rhône with that view.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,361
    Foxy said:

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Making hay with that pun aren't they
    I suspect foal play.
    Is it the mane story?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,191
    TOPPING said:

    Look North just reported that a horsewoman who had an accident is in hospital "in a stable condition".

    Deliberate, or unintended?

    Nicola Wilson. Given the severity I'm going with unintended. Is the second such accident recently in eventing (Caroline March is heading to Stoke Mandeville right now).

    Horses are stupid animals that do stupid things. And we are even more stupid for jumping on top of them.

    https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/nicola-wilson-falls-badminton-horse-7055295

    https://www.horseandhound.co.uk/news/caroline-march-burnham-market-fall-update-784448
    I think they were referring to the pun

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    I'd say Lisa Nandy though I'd put the chances of Starmer being found to have broken the rules at close to zero.

    (If he has though I'm certain he'll resign)
    If we are talking betting, the first consideration is who was at the curry so also getting a FPN with Starmer. Anyone at curry, can’t be leader, at least not this time round. (So it won’t be Rayner if Starmer leaves in this way)

    The second consideration is it will be a woman. Reeves, Philpson, Nandy or Cooper. A toss up between them I think.

    Something from one of the political biographies I read, can’t remember which one, whatever you think of them today, they become different when they become leader, the phrase in the book was “as soon as the crown went on his head he suddenly looked and sounded very different.”

    But with Boris going, Labour getting a leader from up North makes it strong in my book Labour will make hay in the red wall come the election.

    It’s hysterical. The Daily Mail have not only destroyed Boris Johnson’s premiership, but Labour can be left in a far stronger place to do well in the next general election from the crowning of their new queen 😂
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,576

    Applicant said:

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    Labour don't have a great record on electing female leaders, unfortunately.
    It's worse than never having elected a female leader - no woman has ever beaten any man in any Labour leadership election.

    Which makes me suspect that they'll only get a female leader if they cook up an all-female shortlist. Will Streeting accept that?
    Starmer didn't, meaning he ran effectively alone against multiple women who split the "next leader must be a woman" vote.

    Ironically that pressure might make a lone man running against multiple women the favourite again next time, as happened with Starmer.
    It's AV. You don't split the opposition vote.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,796
    Jonathan said:

    Labour losing a lawyerly leader unexpectedly mid-term…

    Not something you would want to say if you had a speech impediment or even a mild Starmer...

    Hat. Coat (door slams)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,191

    Applicant said:

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    I just want to reiterate that Labour were under immense pressure last time to answer the unanswerable charge of never having a female leader. They are EXTREMELY vulnerable on this. SKS was chosen because he had the credentials to boot out the Corbynistas and anti-Semitism. Now that the reset has, mostly, occurred, Labour have a new pool from which to choose.

    If he resigns I fully expect SKS to say the same thing: that they need to choose a female leader.

    I'm on Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper at huge odds: 100/1 +. I think that covers me although you never know. Angela Rayner is part of Beergate. Jess Phillips is just not up to it, nice though she seems.

    Rachel Reeves in my opinion is the standout. I got 100/1 on her yesterday.

    Labour don't have a great record on electing female leaders, unfortunately.
    It's worse than never having elected a female leader - no woman has ever beaten any man in any Labour leadership election.

    Which makes me suspect that they'll only get a female leader if they cook up an all-female shortlist. Will Streeting accept that?
    Starmer didn't, meaning he ran effectively alone against multiple women who split the "next leader must be a woman" vote.

    Ironically that pressure might make a lone man running against multiple women the favourite again next time, as happened with Starmer.
    It's AV. You don't split the opposition vote.
    Stv I think
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,464

    If Starmer says he will resign if issued with a FPN then he is making it certain Rayner will have to concur and resign as well

    But the rules were so crazy ambiguous that there are probably more borderline incidents that SKS was involved in.

    If SKS says this, an army of disaffected Corbynites, Daily Mail journalists, bounty hunters, Tories, trouble-makers and random nutters will be scrutinising everything he did for the last 2 years.

    Looking for the incident that can be reported to the police for a FPN.
    I suspect that is happening already
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/09/tottenham-fans-trust-disappointed-with-sign-on-chants-at-anfield-liverpool

    The Tottenham Hotspur Supporters’ Trust has told fans who chanted “sign on” at Anfield that using joblessness and poverty to wind-up opposing supporters is not acceptable.

    The chant, sung to the tune of You’ll Never Walk Alone, has been directed at Liverpool and Everton fans since the 1980s, when Merseyside suffered a severe economic recession with Margaret Thatcher as prime minister. It could be heard again during Saturday’s 1-1 draw between Tottenham and Liverpool.


    To be honest, I only bother going to Anfield to sing that. :tongue:

    Telling football fans to not sing hurty words is optimistic
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    Keir seems like the kind of guy that reminds the teacher to give homework out

    Indeed, and no one liked that kid.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,464
    Heathener said:

    If I do win on this, I won't crow about it but please don't say you weren't given plenty of notice to bet. The odds are the best I've seen in years. Markets aren't engaging brains and thinking straight.

    But you can all have a good 'larf if the next PM is Jeremy Hunt or whoever.

    I have no interest in betting but I do think you make a valid case
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,796
    @Roger raised an interesting point downthread. Suppose the police find Starmer has no case to answer, but AFTER Starmer has indicated he would go if "convicted".

    Can you imagine the moral authority that would give Starmer to hammer Boris with?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,028

    Keir seems like the kind of guy that reminds the teacher to give homework out

    And what is wrong with that?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,796

    Keir seems like the kind of guy that reminds the teacher to give homework out

    And what is wrong with that?
    Depends if you are the teacher or one of the classmates who just got saddled with unwanted homework
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    Keir seems like the kind of guy that reminds the teacher to give homework out

    And what is wrong with that?
    Hey! Are you keeping well?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    Reeves and Nandy are the shortest Lab women to be Next PM. Both 100/1.

    To put that into perspective, dead-man-walking Douglas Ross is 50/1.

    It’s not happening.
    Douglas wont have a seat if the boundary changes go through
    Moray is indeed being split up between three new seats. The biggest chunk is going into the new Highland East and Elgin seat. Baxter rates this as:

    66% SNP win
    34% Con win

    But that is largely based on polling before the SCons dropped into the teens.
    Yeah. Although Moray was the only area their vote share increased from 2017 (albeit fractionally) aside from Dumfries and Galloway. They also held up ok in Highland. So it's not where the votes are leaking at the moment (Edinburgh, the central belt especially)
    Yes, both Edinburgh and Glasgow were absolute horror shows for the local Conservatives. Brexit really undermined them, but the self-inflicted blows from their supposed colleagues in London just never stop. They really ought to resurrect the old “Progressives” brand.

    The problem for Highland and Moray Tories is that nobody else wants to work with them.
    Yeah, they've got to make some choices. I think they'd be better off with Murdo in charge and becoming the party of the coasts and borders (and perthshire).
    They ought to remain competitive in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire and Argyll will become interesting if labour recover at the SNPs expense rather than trading votes with the Tories. D and G I fancy being their impregnable last stand bastion
    Murdo just lacks everything you expect to find in a senior politician. I think it comes from low self-esteem. He behaves like a classic back-bencher, doomed to never control any actual levers of power. He’s almost like a George Galloway character, before he quit Labour: a figure of scorn and derision even among party colleagues.

    And as for coasts, borders and Perthshire, that would require the Tories to become pro-farming, pro-fisheries and pro-business. All recent traffic has been entirely in the opposite direction.

    Nope, the Scottish centre-right will recover post-independence, not pre-.
This discussion has been closed.