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Breaking: Starmer’s leadership? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Rishi Sunak got a FPN I don't see how SKS does not get one.
    This is the trouble for Starmer, the Met have set an extremely low bar for FPN. Seems like a massive gamble as he may end up having to walk now over a beer and curry with people who wouldn't choose to socialise with anyway.
    Yes it’s a low bar . I personally thought Johnson wouldn’t receive a FPN for that .

    The difference is likely to be that the birthday was purely a social event , in Durham it was work that could have transitioned into social .

    There’s now a lot of pressure on Durham police because they now know that their decision will have huge political ramifications. As opposed to the Met where Johnson never intimated he’d resign.
    By not issuing a FPN Durham Police will have to justify why drinking beer indoors with people not from your household late into the evening was within the rules at that time. The video really does not look like a work event.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022
    Pensfold said:

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    By resigning?
    Well, in one simple word, answering your question, yes.

    In that act of resigning What a huge stretch of clear water between the PM and LOTO this will create. It will look like difference between chalk and cheese if Starmer went ahead with a resignation, Party and principle ahead of ambition. Starmer’s resignation not only result in Boris removal, but Starmer’s principled stand would rub off on the standing of his party in politics right now.

    The way politics works, that would rub off positively on the Labour Party, for exactly the same way it would instantly pile immense pressure on Boris and the Tory’s.
  • Intimidation you say

    Like when the Mail and Tory MPs intimidated Durham to reopen this?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    Independent Councillor in Durham = Tory Councillor in an area where Maggie Thatcher is still the devil incarnate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Judging by friends and family (many of whom have been seriously harsh about Boris) Starmer is now badly damaged, whatever

    “They’re all the same”

    “Bunch of wankers”

    “Fuck them all”

    Etc etc.

    Starmer has lost his “honest but boring” USP. Which is pretty much all he had

    Don't you mix with anybody smart and informed?
    It's the view of most people who aren't blindly partisan. Like expenses. Dirty, cheating establishment crapping on us all.
    And for those that aren't just angry there's the fact BJ = arsehole has become accepted fact but disappointment and disillusionment that St Keir of the beer is too is a fresh wound.
    Tonight's poll might be interesting
    I'd more say it's probably the view of most people who don't follow politics or who think about things only quite superficially.

    Because comparing (i) a PM presiding over a culture of covid rule-breaking at Number 10, taking part in lots of it, at the height of lockdown, being fined once for it with more fines likely to come, and lying repeatedly to parliament about its very existence, inc pretending to be horrified when he found out about it, with (ii) a LOTO with a single what looks like genuine campaign working event during Tier 2 being investigated again, having been reviewed once already and deemed ok, not yet fined for it and probably won't be ... this is not for me a particularly subtle difference.

    But I agree your point about expectations. Starmer is perceived to have ethics, whereas Johnson isn't, therefore he's probably going to get held to a higher standard by the public.
    Yes, I see that but the election will end up decided by the 'all the same' crowd as the politically interested and alert are likely in their camps to stay
    There are plenty of people who follow politics but aren't partisan. Floating voters don't equate to apolitical voters. An overlap, I'll grant you, but nothing like the same thing.
  • But yes I do think this was originally started by the Corbyn fandom who gave it to the Mail - Jesus
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.

    I think I agree.

    By saying he will go if he gets a fixed penalty notice, SKS massively increases press interest in ALL possible lockdown violations by ALL politicians.

    The hounds have been let loose.
    This could turn into a bit like the expenses scandal, where the media just scatter gunned everybody for every little thing and they were all smeared equally. When actually there was a range of bending of the rules, self enrichment within the rules and then there was outright criminal behaviour and corruption.
    I expect this is going to get completely out of hand
    The fire will burn them all. Perhaps they'll think about imposing moronically twattish rules in future. Then again, they won't
    I agree. What if this is just the beginning of the madness - which potential leadership candidate hasn’t been ambushed by a cake, curry, dinner party, BBQ, fund raiser, charity event etc etc etc etc or something under the various lock downs with different times different rules?

    Obviously to be revealed by opposing party media the following week from just being installed in office by their party!
    No more than they deserve for imposing lockdown or supporting it though.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458

    As usual articles from this author make me laugh.Clearly TSE knows few lawyers if he thinks the profession as a whole has unusually high levels of integrity. To say that Starmer' is a very ethical person ignores entirely the way he has behaved over covid since becoming Labour leader. An ethical person would not have used a national emergency as an opportunity simlpy to gain party political advantage as Starmer did throughout the crisis.
    Having said that I think the chances of Starmer being prosecuted are minimal. If the Durham police were too inept to even try to prosecute Cummings they are unlikely to try with Starmer. We will see.
    Whatever happens I suspect most fairminded people will come away with the feeling that Starmer is a total hypocrite. They would, in my opinion be right.

    I see you are posting your usual highly unbiased posts and are also unable to appreciate that @TheScreamingEagles may possibly had his tongue in his cheek (I grant you it isn't as obvious as normal).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    dixiedean said:

    I fear this is leading inexorably towards a General Election.

    Generally, that is always the case in democracies.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    I said this on Saturday when the story broke. If he’s fined, he’ll have to resign, so there’s no downside to saying he will. Obviously, it won’t lead to Johnson resigning, but the contrast will be there. And, if Starmer does end up having to step down, Labour gets a more politically savvy leader after Starmer has done most of the internal cleaning up. It’s a no lose for Labour.

    Who is this much more politically savvy leader just sitting waiting around doing nothing for Labour? Starmer was the best of the bad bunch.

    I think that over the last two days both Lisa Nandy and Wes Streeting have demonstrated they are politically far smarter than Starmer. They are fluent and comfortable under questioning in a way Starmer will never be. I think Bridget Phillipson is similarly skilled.

    Until Lisa gets asked about Trans.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,129

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    Is that the only attack line left, claim the police were bullied and beaten up by Keir flipping Starmer? hence they didn’t achieve justice and fairness? How would that sound from mail and Tory lips?
    You shouldn't call him 'flipping' on a thread mentioning the expenses scandal, otherwise you might remind people of Ed Flipping Balls and Yvette Flipping Cooper.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think Starmer doesn't think he's done anything wrong is because of what I've mentioned. These are people who he wouldn't normally socialise with. It's volunteer campaigners and local staffers in and around the constituency. So in his head it probably doesn't count as a social event, which is fair, but the cake fine set a low bar because the people around that table probably wouldn't choose to socialise with each other either and yet they still got a fine.

    Yes. In his head, Starmer doesn't think the laws he voted to pass were meant for this situation. But they were. It was an idiotic policy and has caused untold misery. BJ, SKS etc getting fined if that occurs is the minimum they deserve for their part in it.
    It is why Starmer played the politics all wrong. If he had gone with the rules were so confusing and illogical I am sure everybody inadvertently broke them at some point, am I a lawyer and don't really know if the stopping to say happy birthday to your boss was ok or not, depending on if the cake was still in the tupperware box.

    It would have covered his own arse, while he could then have laid into Boris for the culture of deliberately consistently ignoring own rules, terrible booze fest culture at a time of national importance, etc etc etc.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    It's such an easy way out as well for the Tories. "Starmer is using lawyerly intimidation tactics against the police". There's no easy comeback from that and if he gets away without a fine the stage is set that it's not because he wasn't guilty, but because he got special treatment as the LOTO.
    Hmmm - Journalists and politicians who have put Durham police under huge pressure to investigate Keir Starmer complaining about Durham police being put under huge pressure by Keir Starmer may not be taken that seriously in the court of public opinion.

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Durham will have to reopen Cummings now, any Tory want to comment?

    I’ve asked this five times now.

    Ah, so you are conscious of your near-spamming...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    edited May 2022
    Pensfold said:

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    By resigning?
    He’s not resigning . He’s just fxcked the Tories ! If Starmer gets a FPN he resigns with a shred of dignity and there will be less fall out on Labour whose leader made the right decision . The Tory MPs can continue to look for their spine and keep Johnson in office. All the while explaining to the public why the leader of the opposition resigned and Johnson didn’t !
  • Brave move

    Good move
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458

    If Rishi Sunak got a FPN I don't see how SKS does not get one.
    I grant you that on the face of it Rishi does seem hard done by, but may I point out that:

    a) Neither you nor I know what the police knew when issuing the fine

    b) Two wrongs don't make a right. By your logic if someone gets unfairly done for speeding then all of us who haven't been speeding should also get done. Now that is clearly bonkers.
  • Applicant said:

    Durham will have to reopen Cummings now, any Tory want to comment?

    I’ve asked this five times now.

    Ah, so you are conscious of your near-spamming...
    Hey there how are you?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    I have supported all your posts on this up to now, because you want Boris out as much as we do (and you probably want Tories to take a time out from being in government too)

    But what you just posted there has a “gulp, what have I done” feel about it.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    edited May 2022

    https://twitter.com/elliottengage/status/1523668662904832002

    I knew this had Mandelson’s paws all over it

    Different era Horse.

    If you look at the comments under Seb Payne's Twitter - plus the above comment from The Times' reporter to the Tweet above - a narrative is already taking hold that Starmer's pledge is a clear attempt to pressurise the Police into not fining him. Which is not going to help him when it comes to the charge of hypocrisy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    There is no backfire, if Starmer gets a fine he's gone anyway. There is nowhere else to go. It won't change the police view. There is either enough evidence to convict Starmer were it to go to court (which despite the notion of FPNs being issued, is surely the bar set) or there isn't. The police can't just randomly decide this guy does or does not get a fine because they want/ don't want to make political waves. A bit late for that now anyway.

    Personally I just want him gone now.

    Should Starmer fall on his sword and Johnson remain, Johnson looks even more tawdry, which is a look I like and he deserves.

    The local election results and Starmer's local difficulties make Johnson more likely to survive until the next GE, whenever that may be.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    Sean_F said:

    If I were Starmer, I don't think I'd offer such a hostage to fortune.

    And put Rayner in an impossible position
    Something from the Korma Sutra?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,784

    Intimidation you say

    Like when the Mail and Tory MPs intimidated Durham to reopen this?

    Politics ain't fair.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Judging by friends and family (many of whom have been seriously harsh about Boris) Starmer is now badly damaged, whatever

    “They’re all the same”

    “Bunch of wankers”

    “Fuck them all”

    Etc etc.

    Starmer has lost his “honest but boring” USP. Which is pretty much all he had

    Don't you mix with anybody smart and informed?
    It's the view of most people who aren't blindly partisan. Like expenses. Dirty, cheating establishment crapping on us all.
    And for those that aren't just angry there's the fact BJ = arsehole has become accepted fact but disappointment and disillusionment that St Keir of the beer is too is a fresh wound.
    Tonight's poll might be interesting
    I'd more say it's probably the view of most people who don't follow politics or who think about things only quite superficially.

    Because comparing (i) a PM presiding over a culture of covid rule-breaking at Number 10, taking part in lots of it, at the height of lockdown, being fined once for it with more fines likely to come, and lying repeatedly to parliament about its very existence, inc pretending to be horrified when he found out about it, with (ii) a LOTO with a single what looks like genuine campaign working event during Tier 2 being investigated again, having been reviewed once already and deemed ok, not yet fined for it and probably won't be ... this is not for me a particularly subtle difference.

    But I agree your point about expectations. Starmer is perceived to have ethics, whereas Johnson isn't, therefore he's probably going to get held to a higher standard by the public.
    Yes, I see that but the election will end up decided by the 'all the same' crowd as the politically interested and alert are likely in their camps to stay
    There are plenty of people who follow politics but aren't partisan. Floating voters don't equate to apolitical voters. An overlap, I'll grant you, but nothing like the same thing.
    Sure, fair enough, but it's going to be the all the same crowd that swing the next election nonetheless I believe, and tbf many of them follow politics too but see the lot of them as troughers etc, and vote for the snout that offers what they want most.
    My point is, most of the most intransigent views over which side is more at fault or whether hypocrisy is worse then partying every damn week aren't going to change their votes now, because they are already firmly in the camp they are in.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    It's such an easy way out as well for the Tories. "Starmer is using lawyerly intimidation tactics against the police". There's no easy comeback from that and if he gets away without a fine the stage is set that it's not because he wasn't guilty, but because he got special treatment as the LOTO.
    Hmmm - Journalists and politicians who have put Durham police under huge pressure to investigate Keir Starmer complaining about Durham police being put under huge pressure by Keir Starmer may not be taken that seriously in the court of public opinion.

    Imagine putting unfair pressure on the officers of Durham Constabulary. https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1523669231711420416
  • nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    Yes a totally dishonest post from the user in question
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Intimidation you say

    Like when the Mail and Tory MPs intimidated Durham to reopen this?

    That's the Mail though, it wasn't Boris or JRM calling up the chief of police in Durham. It's why @tlg86 is right, just put the word out that he's minded to resign if he gets a FPN in the Guardian or Mirror but don't come out and actually say it. That way there's still pressure on the police to not issue a fine but he's not actually putting it on them directly. This feels like something the investigating officers will react badly to and now may choose to fuck him, and not very gently either.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited May 2022

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    It's such an easy way out as well for the Tories. "Starmer is using lawyerly intimidation tactics against the police". There's no easy comeback from that and if he gets away without a fine the stage is set that it's not because he wasn't guilty, but because he got special treatment as the LOTO.
    Hmmm - Journalists and politicians who have put Durham police under huge pressure to investigate Keir Starmer complaining about Durham police being put under huge pressure by Keir Starmer may not be taken that seriously in the court of public opinion.

    Your logic is impeccable, but it is the public we are talking about here. Still liked your post though.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Rishi Sunak got a FPN I don't see how SKS does not get one.
    This is the trouble for Starmer, the Met have set an extremely low bar for FPN. Seems like a massive gamble as he may end up having to walk now over a beer and curry with people who wouldn't choose to socialise with anyway.
    Yes it’s a low bar . I personally thought Johnson wouldn’t receive a FPN for that .

    The difference is likely to be that the birthday was purely a social event , in Durham it was work that could have transitioned into social .

    There’s now a lot of pressure on Durham police because they now know that their decision will have huge political ramifications. As opposed to the Met where Johnson never intimated he’d resign.
    I don't see how that works. The birthday "party" was in an interlude between meetings and nearly everyone present was in the room primarily for meetings - whereas with the curry and beer it was after work finished, and they all just went back to their homes/hotels afterwards (and apparently half of them did the right thing and went back to their homes/hotels first).
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    edited May 2022

    Sean_F said:

    If I were Starmer, I don't think I'd offer such a hostage to fortune.

    And put Rayner in an impossible position
    What, like the back of a Volkswagen?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited May 2022
    kjh said:

    As usual articles from this author make me laugh.Clearly TSE knows few lawyers if he thinks the profession as a whole has unusually high levels of integrity. To say that Starmer' is a very ethical person ignores entirely the way he has behaved over covid since becoming Labour leader. An ethical person would not have used a national emergency as an opportunity simlpy to gain party political advantage as Starmer did throughout the crisis.
    Having said that I think the chances of Starmer being prosecuted are minimal. If the Durham police were too inept to even try to prosecute Cummings they are unlikely to try with Starmer. We will see.
    Whatever happens I suspect most fairminded people will come away with the feeling that Starmer is a total hypocrite. They would, in my opinion be right.

    I see you are posting your usual highly unbiased posts and are also unable to appreciate that @TheScreamingEagles may possibly had his tongue in his cheek (I grant you it isn't as obvious as normal).
    Oh and you do know that @TheScreamingEagles is a lawyer don't you so I suspect he know quite a few lawyers.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    nico679 said:

    Pensfold said:

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    By resigning?
    He’s not resigning . He’s just fxcked the Tories ! If Starmer gets a FPN he resigns with a shred of dignity and there will be less fall out on Labour whose leader made the right decision . The Tory MPs can continue to look for their spine and keep Johnson in office. All the while explaining to the public why the leader of the opposition resigned and Johnson didn’t !
    Yep. It really is that simple.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    "it was work that could have transitioned into social" = "I understood it was a work event"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    It's such an easy way out as well for the Tories. "Starmer is using lawyerly intimidation tactics against the police". There's no easy comeback from that and if he gets away without a fine the stage is set that it's not because he wasn't guilty, but because he got special treatment as the LOTO.
    Hmmm - Journalists and politicians who have put Durham police under huge pressure to investigate Keir Starmer complaining about Durham police being put under huge pressure by Keir Starmer may not be taken that seriously in the court of public opinion.

    But that's various toadies and surrogates, not the PM. The issue here is Starmer doing it directly, it looks like (and is) intimidation tactics to avoid the FPN.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    MaxPB said:

    Intimidation you say

    Like when the Mail and Tory MPs intimidated Durham to reopen this?

    That's the Mail though, it wasn't Boris or JRM calling up the chief of police in Durham. It's why @tlg86 is right, just put the word out that he's minded to resign if he gets a FPN in the Guardian or Mirror but don't come out and actually say it. That way there's still pressure on the police to not issue a fine but he's not actually putting it on them directly. This feels like something the investigating officers will react badly to and now may choose to fuck him, and not very gently either.
    Minded to resign means what . The press will go after him for that .
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Intimidation you say

    Like when the Mail and Tory MPs intimidated Durham to reopen this?

    Or like when much of the media and Labour MPs intimidated the Met to re-open the Downing Street investigation.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,784
    And for all those saying this will backfire on the Tories - how?

    Johnson's rating were already in the toilet, all they needed to do was drag Starmer down with him. No one cares about the various principles bring set in resignation or whatever, millions of people got the BBC "Starmer under police investigation" notification.

    Job done.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    edited May 2022
    I suspect people are over-thinking all this.

    Starmer will resign if he's found guilty - that's been clear from the start, and is fairly inevitable. The only decision he had to make was whether to announce this in advance, or await the verdict. All he's done today is decided that the press hounds won't let go and wait for the Durham police, so he's announcing what he's always intended, in an effort to defuse interminable discussion (e.g. on PB the last few days) about precisely what he drank and whether he ate korma or masala.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 775
    I think references to meeting 'the cake bar' are a bit over egged. I don't think the Met's decision set a precedent as to how Durham police have to behave. Durham police might very well believe that Starmer's event was worse, while not meeting the threshold of a breach of the law.

    Essentially, whether Starmer's event was 'better', 'worse' or 'the same' as cakegate is irrelevant and Durham police need not make reference to the pudding in Downing Street.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    Pensfold said:

    If Starmer does not get a fixed penalty notice then the Met will have to reconsider their fixed penalty notices of the PM and others for the cake/work incident. Many office workers have a birhday cake interlude. It is part of working life

    Not with beer though
    And not with the cake delivered by the spouse and interior designer of the person celebrating their birthday.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    And Labour say the police were intimidated into investigating and it leaves them no choice but to NOT fine him.

    Good game good game.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    TLDR of the comments of the last hour or so:

    People on the left think it's a masterstroke by SKS and the Tories are doomed
    People on the right think SKS has put out a major hostage to fortune
    Pretty much nobody has said anything that couldn't have been predicted...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited May 2022
    Unpopular said:

    I think references to meeting 'the cake bar' are a bit over egged. I don't think the Met's decision set a precedent as to how Durham police have to behave. Durham police might very well believe that Starmer's event was worse, while not meeting the threshold of a breach of the law.

    Essentially, whether Starmer's event was 'better', 'worse' or 'the same' as cakegate is irrelevant and Durham police need not make reference to the pudding in Downing Street.

    I'd imagine Durham police are fairly pissed off at being in the middle of this
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,784

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    Yes a totally dishonest post from the user in question
    Not sure whether @Big_G_NorthWales is right on it being an organic complaint, or whether it's a right wing press stitch up.

    Point is he recognised there was danger for Starmer and the rest of us (me included) stuck out fingers in our ears.

    Should've known the left would want their revenge, even of it meant an unholy alliance with the Mail. Here it is.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    I have supported all your posts on this up to now, because you want Boris out as much as we do (and you probably want Tories to take a time out from being in government too)

    But what you just posted there has a “gulp, what have I done” feel about it.
    The trouble for Starmer is coming from attendees who are not conservatives
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    And Labour say the police were intimidated into investigating and it leaves them no choice but to NOT fine him.

    Good game good game.
    No, the police have already said the investigation was reopened due to new and significant evidence being handed to them, not because of media/political pressure. If that irate Corbyn supporter hadn't come along with the video and eyewitness account it's still a dead end.

    Look on the bright side, Starmer resigning may finally precipitate the downfall of Boris!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Those saying it is good for one side or another, I think it is massively unpredictable. Starmer might not get fined, but he is now tarred somewhat. Starmer might go, but likely Boris gets more fines / the report is terrible and that finally prompts the Tories to kick him out and they also get to reset with say somebody like Hunt. The Tories might not act. Who knows.

    If it’s police investigated as wanted, and Starmer doesn’t get a FPN, what’s the attack line from the Tory’s and Daily Mail?

    If they don’t have one (which would have to be attack on the police, they couldn’t blame the people who made all these different rules) its complete exoneration isn’t it Starmer would get a big bounce from it for sure, which his opponents would have gifted to him.
    Spot on. Your rabbit-senses have definitely sharpened back to their best in recent days.
    Must be the fresh lettuce.

    But it’s true though, Starmer is the sort to resign, and that would give his successor a huge bounce from the public, the position of the two parties on honesty and principle would be like chalk and cheese.

    The only alternative to that, he is exonerated, and in an even more powerful position to attack the Tory’s over this.

    Posters here “Starmer is still damaged” “Starmer will still be a hypocrite” can’t they see that this is not now where this is going?

    Well they soon will. As there will be polling on this that will show the huge clear water between the parties on this issue of principle and leadership.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Not many leaders of political parties have quit before testing themselves as leader at a general election. If Starmer does end up resigning over this he joins a club that includes Iain Duncan Smith and John Smith (for very different reasons).

    Not sure which other major party leaders won't have contested general elections. Any ideas?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Unpopular said:

    I think references to meeting 'the cake bar' are a bit over egged. I don't think the Met's decision set a precedent as to how Durham police have to behave. Durham police might very well believe that Starmer's event was worse, while not meeting the threshold of a breach of the law.

    Essentially, whether Starmer's event was 'better', 'worse' or 'the same' as cakegate is irrelevant and Durham police need not make reference to the pudding in Downing Street.

    I'd imagine Durham police are fairly pissed off at being in the middle of this
    You don't need to imagine - they are royally pissed off....
  • Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    Yes a totally dishonest post from the user in question
    Not sure whether @Big_G_NorthWales is right on it being an organic complaint, or whether it's a right wing press stitch up.

    Point is he recognised there was danger for Starmer and the rest of us (me included) stuck out fingers in our ears.

    Should've known the left would want their revenge, even of it meant an unholy alliance with the Mail. Here it is.
    Nonsense they posted it day after day because they want an excuse to vote for Johnson again. This is just the latest flip flop from them and it’s clear as day.

    He earns well from his Tory paymasters
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    As usual articles from this author make me laugh.Clearly TSE knows few lawyers if he thinks the profession as a whole has unusually high levels of integrity. To say that Starmer' is a very ethical person ignores entirely the way he has behaved over covid since becoming Labour leader. An ethical person would not have used a national emergency as an opportunity simlpy to gain party political advantage as Starmer did throughout the crisis.
    Having said that I think the chances of Starmer being prosecuted are minimal. If the Durham police were too inept to even try to prosecute Cummings they are unlikely to try with Starmer. We will see.
    Whatever happens I suspect most fairminded people will come away with the feeling that Starmer is a total hypocrite. They would, in my opinion be right.

    I think TSE's article was tongue in cheek.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Not sure the "intimidation" line will cut through beyond the usual.
    It's not easily obvious to the bloke in the street.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    It's such an easy way out as well for the Tories. "Starmer is using lawyerly intimidation tactics against the police". There's no easy comeback from that and if he gets away without a fine the stage is set that it's not because he wasn't guilty, but because he got special treatment as the LOTO.
    Hmmm - Journalists and politicians who have put Durham police under huge pressure to investigate Keir Starmer complaining about Durham police being put under huge pressure by Keir Starmer may not be taken that seriously in the court of public opinion.

    But that's various toadies and surrogates, not the PM. The issue here is Starmer doing it directly, it looks like (and is) intimidation tactics to avoid the FPN.
    Cabinet ministers and Tory MPs were demanding an investigation. The Mail ran a front page lead on it last week. Look at various Tory tweets. They were all working together.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    edited May 2022
    to

    Unpopular said:

    I think references to meeting 'the cake bar' are a bit over egged. I don't think the Met's decision set a precedent as to how Durham police have to behave. Durham police might very well believe that Starmer's event was worse, while not meeting the threshold of a breach of the law.

    Essentially, whether Starmer's event was 'better', 'worse' or 'the same' as cakegate is irrelevant and Durham police need not make reference to the pudding in Downing Street.

    I'd imagine Durham police are fairly pissed off at being in the middle of this
    Then they shouldn’t have bowed to pressure from the DM and Tory MPs .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    That did not initiate the process the complaint did and the attendees are the trouble makers

    And that is entirely self evident

    It will not be the absurd Dorries who returns the attendees questionnaires
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited May 2022
    Applicant said:

    TLDR of the comments of the last hour or so:

    People on the left think it's a masterstroke by SKS and the Tories are doomed
    People on the right think SKS has put out a major hostage to fortune
    Pretty much nobody has said anything that couldn't have been predicted...

    Well being a Liberal and sitting on the fence at this point in time I think either could be true and we won't know until we know. That's all nice and neat now.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Wonder if SKS will take questions?

    Some easy ones surely

    1. You tweeted Boris needed to go just because it was going to be investigated by the Met. irrespective of their findings Why are you waiting?

    2 Why did you lie about Rayner

    3. Why did you eat indoors with others rather than back at the hotel

    4, What work fid you do after drinking beer. Someone present says no work was done or even planned after the Curry and Beer are they liars or you

    5. You stated nowhere was available to eat that was incorrect there were multiple places including your hotel Why did you lie about that

    6. Do you think you retain the trust of the Public a poll today showed twice as many thought you should quit compared to those who thought you should stay Is your position untenable

    Loads of other ones like were there any other instances where you broke local rules?

    I suspect he will have one robotic answer and will not be able to think on his feet so will repeat over and over again.

    I think he should say there is a Poster on PB who says I am a Labour Legend the same as John Smith so I am not going to resign
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Unpopular said:

    I think references to meeting 'the cake bar' are a bit over egged. I don't think the Met's decision set a precedent as to how Durham police have to behave. Durham police might very well believe that Starmer's event was worse, while not meeting the threshold of a breach of the law.

    Essentially, whether Starmer's event was 'better', 'worse' or 'the same' as cakegate is irrelevant and Durham police need not make reference to the pudding in Downing Street.

    Different lockdown laws, too, of course. During cakegate you had no grounds, IIRC, for being in the same room, if not for work purposes. For beergate being in the same room for campaign purposes was fine. Food was probably fine (not explicit on that, I think) if working/working on campaign. Beer with food probably doesn't change that. The potential problem is if the work/reason for being together had finished. Then it's a grey area, possibly illegal. Everyone together for campaign work, then back to hotel/home, then meet up again for curry and beer would pretty obviously be illegal (although smaller groups spontaneously deciding to meet up socially would be fine?). Everyone together working and coincidentally eating at the same time, looks legal. Staying on for food and drink, much harder to call.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    Starmer said that Boris should resign just for being investigated. Now Starmer is being investigated he should resign.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    Applicant said:

    TLDR of the comments of the last hour or so:

    People on the left think it's a masterstroke by SKS and the Tories are doomed
    People on the right think SKS has put out a major hostage to fortune
    Pretty much nobody has said anything that couldn't have been predicted...

    It is the right thing to do, whether it is sensible or not. Even if you are in the "masterstroke" camp, SKS could still botch it by looking sweaty, evasive and uncomfortable in his statement.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    dixiedean said:

    Not sure the "intimidation" line will cut through beyond the usual.
    It's not easily obvious to the bloke in the street.

    It's a classic seed line. Plant that idea of corruption and let it germinate in the minds of a few.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169

    Not many leaders of political parties have quit before testing themselves as leader at a general election. If Starmer does end up resigning over this he joins a club that includes Iain Duncan Smith and John Smith (for very different reasons).

    Not sure which other major party leaders won't have contested general elections. Any ideas?

    Ming Campbell is the only other recent example I can think of.
  • Pensfold said:

    Starmer said that Boris should resign just for being investigated. Now Starmer is being investigated he should resign.

    No he did not. Cite the claim
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    It's such an easy way out as well for the Tories. "Starmer is using lawyerly intimidation tactics against the police". There's no easy comeback from that and if he gets away without a fine the stage is set that it's not because he wasn't guilty, but because he got special treatment as the LOTO.
    Hmmm - Journalists and politicians who have put Durham police under huge pressure to investigate Keir Starmer complaining about Durham police being put under huge pressure by Keir Starmer may not be taken that seriously in the court of public opinion.

    But that's various toadies and surrogates, not the PM. The issue here is Starmer doing it directly, it looks like (and is) intimidation tactics to avoid the FPN.
    Cabinet ministers and Tory MPs were demanding an investigation. The Mail ran a front page lead on it last week. Look at various Tory tweets. They were all working together.

    And yet it was all coming to nothing with the Mail giving up until an irate Corbyn supporter handed over a video and an eyewitness account to the police. That's what has triggered the investigation.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    I have supported all your posts on this up to now, because you want Boris out as much as we do (and you probably want Tories to take a time out from being in government too)

    But what you just posted there has a “gulp, what have I done” feel about it.
    The trouble for Starmer is coming from attendees who are not conservatives
    Yep, it’s pretty clear that disaffected Corbynites are colluding with the Tory media, but Tory MPs and ministers have very publicly and very loudly demanding an investigation. There’s no getting round that.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Applicant said:

    TLDR of the comments of the last hour or so:

    People on the left think it's a masterstroke by SKS and the Tories are doomed
    People on the right think SKS has put out a major hostage to fortune
    Pretty much nobody has said anything that couldn't have been predicted...

    Including that well-known left-winger @MoonRabbit ?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,129
    edited May 2022
    When did Beergate start up again?

    I don't know what it was on April 19th in Catalonia (other than beer?) that made me ask this:

    BlancheLivermore said:
    What is it that distinguishes SKS’s takeaway and beers with party staff in Durham from BJ’s “birthday party”?

    Lucky that the Tories followed Rochdale's advice in response:

    RochdalePioneers
    Nothing! In fact that's brilliant! Someone should go out and make that argument quick! Guaranteed to turn the heads of all the people across the country who are sick of the government and make every man Jack of them run out and vote Tory. Huzzah.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022
    One thing that everybody should remember is the public don't follow the minutiae of these types of things, like we do on here.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Unpopular said:

    I think references to meeting 'the cake bar' are a bit over egged. I don't think the Met's decision set a precedent as to how Durham police have to behave. Durham police might very well believe that Starmer's event was worse, while not meeting the threshold of a breach of the law.

    Essentially, whether Starmer's event was 'better', 'worse' or 'the same' as cakegate is irrelevant and Durham police need not make reference to the pudding in Downing Street.

    So you're predicting Starmer to get his just deserts?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Applicant said:

    Intimidation you say

    Like when the Mail and Tory MPs intimidated Durham to reopen this?

    Or like when much of the media and Labour MPs intimidated the Met to re-open the Downing Street investigation.
    When was it "re-opened"? My understanding was that it was simply opened, and then has been ongoing due to the huge amount of evidence of wrong doing in No10.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Applicant said:

    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Rishi Sunak got a FPN I don't see how SKS does not get one.
    This is the trouble for Starmer, the Met have set an extremely low bar for FPN. Seems like a massive gamble as he may end up having to walk now over a beer and curry with people who wouldn't choose to socialise with anyway.
    Yes it’s a low bar . I personally thought Johnson wouldn’t receive a FPN for that .

    The difference is likely to be that the birthday was purely a social event , in Durham it was work that could have transitioned into social .

    There’s now a lot of pressure on Durham police because they now know that their decision will have huge political ramifications. As opposed to the Met where Johnson never intimated he’d resign.
    I don't see how that works. The birthday "party" was in an interlude between meetings and nearly everyone present was in the room primarily for meetings - whereas with the curry and beer it was after work finished, and they all just went back to their homes/hotels afterwards (and apparently half of them did the right thing and went back to their homes/hotels first).
    The big difference with the birthday cake is that you had a couple of people who were only there because of the birthday, not the work.

    Considering the restrictions everyone else was under at the time, though, definite air of piss-taking all round.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022
    Solid 100% prediction for tomorrows front of daily mail - queues chaos at airports, UK heatwave on way, gate left open cows all over village. Anything but politics! 🤣
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    I said this on Saturday when the story broke. If he’s fined, he’ll have to resign, so there’s no downside to saying he will. Obviously, it won’t lead to Johnson resigning, but the contrast will be there. And, if Starmer does end up having to step down, Labour gets a more politically savvy leader after Starmer has done most of the internal cleaning up. It’s a no lose for Labour.

    What are the odds on the bit in bold?
    People were saying that about forensic Keir when Corbyn stood down.
  • Harry Cole and Dan Hodges seem really angry
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,784
    edited May 2022

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    Yes a totally dishonest post from the user in question
    Not sure whether @Big_G_NorthWales is right on it being an organic complaint, or whether it's a right wing press stitch up.

    Point is he recognised there was danger for Starmer and the rest of us (me included) stuck out fingers in our ears.

    Should've known the left would want their revenge, even of it meant an unholy alliance with the Mail. Here it is.
    Nonsense they posted it day after day because they want an excuse to vote for Johnson again. This is just the latest flip flop from them and it’s clear as day.

    He earns well from his Tory paymasters
    He was right in the end though. The excuse arrived.

    The concern is that we'll get a Trump v Clinton scenario, where both candidates are (falsely) equivalised.

    There is a sort of diminishing marginal return to awfulness in politics, no shades of grey.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Why not just resign when the fine is issued? Why announce in advance?

    Is this an attempt to face down Durham police?

    On the latter, yes. He's trying to be clever/lawyerly about it but the Durham police may decide to fuck him over now rather than cave. It has very high potential to backfire on him because the Met have set a precedent of handing out a FPN for the cake and the police in Durham can fall back on that if they choose to hand out a fine.
    Just need one Tory to say "blatant attempt to intimidate the police" and it leaves them with no choice but to fine him.
    It's such an easy way out as well for the Tories. "Starmer is using lawyerly intimidation tactics against the police". There's no easy comeback from that and if he gets away without a fine the stage is set that it's not because he wasn't guilty, but because he got special treatment as the LOTO.
    Hmmm - Journalists and politicians who have put Durham police under huge pressure to investigate Keir Starmer complaining about Durham police being put under huge pressure by Keir Starmer may not be taken that seriously in the court of public opinion.

    But that's various toadies and surrogates, not the PM. The issue here is Starmer doing it directly, it looks like (and is) intimidation tactics to avoid the FPN.
    Cabinet ministers and Tory MPs were demanding an investigation. The Mail ran a front page lead on it last week. Look at various Tory tweets. They were all working together.

    And yet it was all coming to nothing with the Mail giving up until an irate Corbyn supporter handed over a video and an eyewitness account to the police. That's what has triggered the investigation.
    Yep - fresh evidence has a habit of re-opening a case that was previously closed because without anything new it's already been fully investigated.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Starmer wants to get FPN'd

    Resigns, gets a cabinet job in the resulting Labour government as the Cons/Boris completely fucks up their response.
  • Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    Yes a totally dishonest post from the user in question
    Not sure whether @Big_G_NorthWales is right on it being an organic complaint, or whether it's a right wing press stitch up.

    Point is he recognised there was danger for Starmer and the rest of us (me included) stuck out fingers in our ears.

    Should've known the left would want their revenge, even of it meant an unholy alliance with the Mail. Here it is.
    Nonsense they posted it day after day because they want an excuse to vote for Johnson again. This is just the latest flip flop from them and it’s clear as day.

    He earns well from his Tory paymasters
    He was right in the end though. The excuse arrived.

    The concern is that we'll get a Trump v Clinton scenario, where both candidates are (falsely) equivalised.

    There is a sort of diminishing marginal return on awfulness in politics, no shades of grey.
    They were right by accident. If Starmer isn’t fined they will say it’s prejudiced and should be reopened again
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    Yes a totally dishonest post from the user in question
    Not sure whether @Big_G_NorthWales is right on it being an organic complaint, or whether it's a right wing press stitch up.

    Point is he recognised there was danger for Starmer and the rest of us (me included) stuck out fingers in our ears.

    Should've known the left would want their revenge, even of it meant an unholy alliance with the Mail. Here it is.
    Nonsense they posted it day after day because they want an excuse to vote for Johnson again. This is just the latest flip flop from them and it’s clear as day.

    He earns well from his Tory paymasters
    Again immature and juvenile response
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Harry Cole and Dan Hodges seem really angry

    Isn't that their default mode?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,266
    I’m finishing my Cuban ceeee-garrrr
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Pensfold said:

    Starmer said that Boris should resign just for being investigated. Now Starmer is being investigated he should resign.

    No he did not. Cite the claim
    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1488176626642923521?lang=en

    “Honesty and decency matter. After months of denials the Prime Minister is now under criminal investigations for breaking his own lockdown laws. He needs to do the decent thing and resign.”
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    Applicant said:

    TLDR of the comments of the last hour or so:

    People on the left think it's a masterstroke by SKS and the Tories are doomed
    People on the right think SKS has put out a major hostage to fortune
    Pretty much nobody has said anything that couldn't have been predicted...

    Chunk of that is explained by different worldviews.

    My impression (remember that it's not my tribe) is that "taking one for the team/cause" makes a lot more sense to those on the left than on the right. Think that way, and the endpoints are vindication or self-sacrifice. Either of them is good. After all, they both put the Conservatives in a fairly shitty position.

    Start on the right, it's a bit different. If Starmer gets FPNed, he doesn't get to be Prime Minister, and he has lost, and that's a risk not to be taken.

    Johnson is the extreme case of this- can you imagine him ever taking one for (as opposed to from) the team? But it's an occupational hazard of being right-wing. Maggie was always disappointed that the people her government made rich didn't all become great philanthropists. When she implied that society was made of people, and wealth came with duty she meant it.

    And that's one of the reason the Conservatives ballsed up their gaming of this. They forgot who they were playing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    One doubts Big G needs much encouragement to check Nadine Dorries’s Twitter as he appears to take his talking points wholesale from there.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Harriet Harman waving a Keir is innocent flag!!

    He is an honest man.


  • RobD said:

    Pensfold said:

    Starmer said that Boris should resign just for being investigated. Now Starmer is being investigated he should resign.

    No he did not. Cite the claim
    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1488176626642923521?lang=en

    “Honesty and decency matter. After months of denials the Prime Minister is now under criminal investigations for breaking his own lockdown laws. He needs to do the decent thing and resign.”
    Yea that’s resign for lying, which he did in the HoC
  • nico679 said:

    Great news . Finally Starmer takes back control and screws the Tories .

    The Tories have made an absolute horlicks of this, haven't they? The amazing thing is how obvious the bear trap was... yet they have wandered right into it. Is anyone engaging brain at Central Office?
    The demand for the investigation came from an independent Durham Councillor who had lost his mother due to covid and it is attendees at the event who have contradicted Starmer's story

    It may be convenient for some to blame the conservative party but this is happening because of disaffected labourites
    You may have missed various Tory MPs and cabinet ministers demanding an investigation, MrG. Check out Nadine Dorries’ Twitter account. That should help you.

    One doubts Big G needs much encouragement to check Nadine Dorries’s Twitter as he appears to take his talking points wholesale from there.
    Copy and paste job really

    I know I know “immature and juvenile response”
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Pensfold said:

    Starmer said that Boris should resign just for being investigated. Now Starmer is being investigated he should resign.

    No he did not. Cite the claim
    It has been quoted back to labour representatives ad infinitum by the media and near every day
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 775
    Endillion said:

    Unpopular said:

    I think references to meeting 'the cake bar' are a bit over egged. I don't think the Met's decision set a precedent as to how Durham police have to behave. Durham police might very well believe that Starmer's event was worse, while not meeting the threshold of a breach of the law.

    Essentially, whether Starmer's event was 'better', 'worse' or 'the same' as cakegate is irrelevant and Durham police need not make reference to the pudding in Downing Street.

    So you're predicting Starmer to get his just deserts?
    I'm not sure whether or not it was just deserts is the issue.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Massive risk for Starmer. Genuinely brave and the right call. But it’s lose-lose for Johnson now. Either way he is massively damaged, far worse than anything so far. He *might* cling on as PM but he’d make Corbyn (or me) look like a huge electoral asset by comparison.
    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1523677673943277568
  • Polling from @SavantaComRes: 49% think Starmer broke Covid rules, including 34% of 2019 Labour voters. But 65% of people think 'partygate' (allegations relating to Johnson and Downing Street breaches) is worse than Starmer's 'beergate' – including 53% of 2019 Tory voters

    Tories wrong again
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Pensfold said:

    Starmer said that Boris should resign just for being investigated. Now Starmer is being investigated he should resign.

    No he did not. Cite the claim
    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1488176626642923521?lang=en

    “Honesty and decency matter. After months of denials the Prime Minister is now under criminal investigations for breaking his own lockdown laws. He needs to do the decent thing and resign.”
    Yea that’s resign for lying, which he did in the HoC
    He made a similar statement before the Gray report even came out.
  • Pensfold said:

    Starmer said that Boris should resign just for being investigated. Now Starmer is being investigated he should resign.

    No he did not. Cite the claim
    It has been quoted back to labour representatives ad infinitum by the media and near every day
    Then link to it and stop lying
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pensfold said:

    Starmer said that Boris should resign just for being investigated. Now Starmer is being investigated he should resign.

    No he did not. Cite the claim
    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1488176626642923521?lang=en

    “Honesty and decency matter. After months of denials the Prime Minister is now under criminal investigations for breaking his own lockdown laws. He needs to do the decent thing and resign.”
    Yea that’s resign for lying, which he did in the HoC
    He made a similar statement before the Gray report even came out.
    Link
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Starmer is a top lawyer. Presumably he knows the law well - particularly when he voted for a law in parliament a few months earlier, and would have had discussions within his party on whether to support the legislation.

    His USP is that he is not a clown.

    Yet even he, big-brained as he is, cannot say he did not break the law. This is a sign that the law was really, really poorly defined.

    The whole thing is ridiculous. But (shock, horror!) if the No. 10 thing was worthy of FPN's, then the Durham event is as well.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    TimS said:

    Not many leaders of political parties have quit before testing themselves as leader at a general election. If Starmer does end up resigning over this he joins a club that includes Iain Duncan Smith and John Smith (for very different reasons).

    Not sure which other major party leaders won't have contested general elections. Any ideas?

    Ming Campbell is the only other recent example I can think of.
    The only other Tory is Austen Chamberlain
    Labour's last was George Lansbury I think
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Leon said:

    I’m finishing my Cuban ceeee-garrrr

    should we all now spare a thought and a prayer for all the friendly people and honest hard working business you met in Sri Lanka Leon? Was there any sense of this coming when you were there? 🙁
This discussion has been closed.