Despite Dowden's heroic "800 losses" spinning there's no way these results can be interpreted as other than "bad". Yes, it's mid-term, and yes, other PMs have faced worse and gone on to win - but what matters is what Tory MPs believe. The real question is "has Johnson turned into an outright liability (Thatcher Poll Tax, EU)?" or does he still have electoral appeal? What also complicates the picture is London Labour's "gaining Mayfair, losing Hull" trajectory, and how they appeal to voters in both. Is Starmer the man for the job (and "what is a man"?)?
As the old Arab curse goes "may your children live in interesting times".
It's worth a note that the number of Councillors is falling - I think. So 500 losses now is more significant than 500 losses 20 years ago.
The best estimate I can find is the total no of councillors down by 10% in 20 years.
Aaron bell soundbite r2 news. Nothing has changed, letter staying with Brady, time to get on with it
Tories gained seats in his constituency
Suggests he is doing something right?
With due respect to our favourite Tory MP, that’s a trend that has been going on a while in Staffs and didn’t just apply to NuL. There was a gain in Cannock Chase as well and Amanda Milling is not responsible for that.
Aaron bell soundbite r2 news. Nothing has changed, letter staying with Brady, time to get on with it
Tories gained seats in his constituency
Suggests he is doing something right?
I met him a couple of months back as he's the MP for where I work. He's was pretty clear he'd done what he needed to do and wasnt going to change his mind,
Authorities in Berlin have banned Ukrainian flags and other Ukrainian symbols at rallies during commemorative events on May 8 and 9, equating them with separatist and Russian symbols. Ukrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians.
In a comment to EuroPravda, Anna Praine-Kosach, vice president of the Ukrainian-German association Ukraine Future, said that two weeks ago, the Ukrainian community in Berlin agreed with local authorities to hold a rally and received permission.
It was expected that about 20,000 Ukrainians would gather in Berlin to pay their respects, and no demonstration was planned. But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites.
You know, nobody despises Boris Johnson more than I do.
But I’m thinking I’d rather have him as PM than these twats running Germany.
Indeed. I take the view that governments are generally poor at focusing on more than one thing at once. By far the most salient issue right now is defeating Russian imperialism. And intriguingly I too have stoped and found myself thinking more than once that it’s fortuitous we have Johnson in charge for this moment than some of the past and present alternatives.
He can kept on by a new PM as government Ukraine coordinator and liaison.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories.
The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.
Heaven help,us.
It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.
But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.
I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.
But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.
Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
Absolutely rightly.
As things stand, the LDs will gain 6 to 8 seats from the Conservatives in the South East.
If everything moves in the LDs favour, and they end up on 18-19% at the GE, then they *might* end up picking up 12-14 seats.
But that's - basically - a best possible scenario for the LDs, and a worst possible one for the Conservatives.
Now, I agree the Conservatives will likely lose another 2 or 3 in Scotland. And I'm sure Labour will pick up some.
But the Conservatives have a decent cushion. My 66% probability range is from a Con majority of 30 to Cons 20 short (but still largest party).
The most vulnerable seats for the Conservatives: Winchester, Cheltenham, C&W, Esher & Walton (maybe - might go back a bit next time as attentions will be split elsewhere), Lewes, Guildford, Wimbledon, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, and St Ives (maybe). Hazel Grove is a stretch target. So I expect 7-11 Lib Dem gains.
Beyond that it gets much harder for the Liberal Democrats and you're really looking at a Tory meltdown for them to do much better.
They don't have an easy path back to their pre GE2010 tally because the politics of the south-west of England have changed so much, so their hopes are really invested in posh/affluent spa-towns and liberal suburbia.
Sadly I agree with the posts in this thread. It is much harder for the LDs to win large numbers of Tory seats than it is for Lab, so LDs doing well is less of a threat (it isn't a by election), much as I wish that wasn't true. Although I disagreed with @Casino_Royale on his reasons why SWS won't fall I still think he is absolutely correct that it wont fall (unless the LDs go up in the polls by at least another 10%). The LDs will be focusing on a much smaller group of targets that won't include SWS on these poll levels.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
That depends upon how you define middle class.
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
Still now even most 39 year olds own their own home, at least with a mortgage. Age at which voters were first more likely to vote Conservative than Labour in December 2019? 39. Just many of them will be skilled working class voters in the North and Midlands voting Conservative having bought a property rather than graduates on average incomes in London and the South East still voting Labour or Liberal Democrat and still renting
Aaron bell soundbite r2 news. Nothing has changed, letter staying with Brady, time to get on with it
Tories gained seats in his constituency
Suggests he is doing something right?
With due respect to our Tory MP, that’s a trend that has been going on a while in Staffs and didn’t just apply to NuL. There was a gain in Cannock Chase as well and Amanda Milling is not responsible for that.
It’s more to do with demographic change.
The days when labour could take the Potteries for granted are gone.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
“Were there any more ‘parties’?” “No” “But, but two years ago you spent nine minutes being ambushed by your wife with a birthday cake. You’re a lying liar who should resign for lying”
It looks ridiculous watching from afar.
From afar, you didn’t live through our restrictions, sitting at home unable to visit friends or relatives - however desperate the need, theirs or yours - watching the PM on TV almost every night lecturing us about the need to follow the rules, for the sake of the NHS and everyone’s health.
There was literally an NHS advert with a photo of face of dying patient on a ventilator with the words 'Can you look them in the eye and still break the rules' or similar.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
At least Michael Gove wanted a liberal arts education for all (a left-wing position in America but right-wing here).
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories.
The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.
Heaven help,us.
It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.
But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.
I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.
But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.
Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
Absolutely rightly.
As things stand, the LDs will gain 6 to 8 seats from the Conservatives in the South East.
If everything moves in the LDs favour, and they end up on 18-19% at the GE, then they *might* end up picking up 12-14 seats.
But that's - basically - a best possible scenario for the LDs, and a worst possible one for the Conservatives.
Now, I agree the Conservatives will likely lose another 2 or 3 in Scotland. And I'm sure Labour will pick up some.
But the Conservatives have a decent cushion. My 66% probability range is from a Con majority of 30 to Cons 20 short (but still largest party).
The most vulnerable seats for the Conservatives: Winchester, Cheltenham, C&W, Esher & Walton (maybe - might go back a bit next time as attentions will be split elsewhere), Lewes, Guildford, Wimbledon, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, and St Ives (maybe). Hazel Grove is a stretch target. So I expect 7-11 Lib Dem gains.
Beyond that it gets much harder for the Liberal Democrats and you're really looking at a Tory meltdown for them to do much better.
They don't have an easy path back to their pre GE2010 tally because the politics of the south-west of England have changed so much, so their hopes are really invested in posh/affluent spa-towns and liberal suburbia.
Sadly I agree with the posts in this thread. It is much harder for the LDs to win large numbers of Tory seats than it is for Lab, so LDs doing well is less of a threat (it isn't a by election), much as I wish that wasn't true. Although I disagreed with @Casino_Royale on his reasons why SWS won't fall I still think he is absolutely correct that it wont fall unless the LDs go up in the polls by at least another 10%. The LDs will be focusing on a much smaller group of targets that won't include SWS on these poll levels.
The Lib Dems have often done well at local level in Surrey and other parts of the commuter belt, without translating it into wins at Parliamentary level. I do think that dislike for the government at a cultural level gives them a better chance, but you're not going to see the whole of Surrey and M3 and M4 corridors turning yellow, any time soon.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
I hope the CIIP have something by Dr Feelgood playing at their rallies.
Off-topic and indulgent, but can I please wax lyrical for a minute about Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets? There is something wonderfully surreal (as I did last night) at watching a band led by a 78 year old drummer playing mid-60s psychedelia with such gusto.
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I think it's true that expanding higher education has led to disappointed expectations. Any society faces problems when graduates can't get the jobs they've been led to believe should follow from their getting a degree.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I'm in favour of lifetime learning / education / training with every individual being given an allowance / subsidy / tax credit to help them get it as and when it suits their needs and interests.
What I'm against is the financial abuse of encouraging teenagers to get themselves into tens of thousands of debt for something which gives them a sense of entitlement but which is often sod all use.
Have we seen anything more on the Russian Frigate (possibly) hit by a Ukrainian Missile? I've seen a few more reports in the media, but nobody seems sure what happened.
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
John Howard did in Australia in 2007
The relevance of that comment is…?
It allowed what looked like a rebuttal without actually providing one, to enable a last word.
Useful to know though, no matter what someone says just pick a counter examine from anywhere on planet earth. At least until the aliens of proxima centauri tell us the details of their constituency results.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories.
The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.
Heaven help,us.
It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.
But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.
I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.
But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.
Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
Absolutely rightly.
As things stand, the LDs will gain 6 to 8 seats from the Conservatives in the South East.
If everything moves in the LDs favour, and they end up on 18-19% at the GE, then they *might* end up picking up 12-14 seats.
But that's - basically - a best possible scenario for the LDs, and a worst possible one for the Conservatives.
Now, I agree the Conservatives will likely lose another 2 or 3 in Scotland. And I'm sure Labour will pick up some.
But the Conservatives have a decent cushion. My 66% probability range is from a Con majority of 30 to Cons 20 short (but still largest party).
The most vulnerable seats for the Conservatives: Winchester, Cheltenham, C&W, Esher & Walton (maybe - might go back a bit next time as attentions will be split elsewhere), Lewes, Guildford, Wimbledon, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, and St Ives (maybe). Hazel Grove is a stretch target. So I expect 7-11 Lib Dem gains.
Beyond that it gets much harder for the Liberal Democrats and you're really looking at a Tory meltdown for them to do much better.
They don't have an easy path back to their pre GE2010 tally because the politics of the south-west of England have changed so much, so their hopes are really invested in posh/affluent spa-towns and liberal suburbia.
Depends what the Lib Dems are for.
In 2019, they were about a fairly narrow niche of liberal affluent europhile suburbia. The wider base they had in 1992-2010 hadn't forgiven them for coalition.
North Shropshire was much more significant a by-election than Chesham and Amersham from that point of view. There are a lot of places where Labour, bless them, can't win, but the yellow team can.
OK, Libs are still going to depend on targeting, and pure sandal leather effort to win seats, but the map looks a lot more open than it did a while back.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
That depends upon how you define middle class.
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
Reading @another_richard and @HYUFD private dialogue is like dipping back into the 1950s and watching a smoke filled talking heads debate on a black and white TV
"Class depends on where one was educated, or what sort of a home one can afford". What a load of old nonsense.
Educate as many as one can to a high standard it drags up society, a nation of fewer hooligans and reprobates. Who cares if all the Baristas have a Sociology degree from the University of Worcester? Good on them.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
Broadly, I'd define the middle class (in the British, not the American sense) as about 25% of the population. A lot of very ill-paid jobs don't involve manual labour.
These election results are a really useful wedge to separate the liars from the deluded. The Conservatives who think this isn't a calamitous result are not liars and I will stop referring to them as such. They are simply adrift from reality.
So what's the NEV and how does it compare with 2012 ?
That's not to say things will get better for the Conservatives - they might do but they could also get worse.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I think it's true that expanding higher education has led to disappointed expectations. Any society faces problems when graduates can't get the jobs they've been led to believe should follow from their getting a degree.
As I said unless you studied law medicine, economics or a STEM subject at a Russell Group university you are unlikely to ever enter the top 10% of earners (unless you are a brilliant entrepreneur or become a celebrity).
However you are still part of a cultural educated elite as a university graduate even if you do not become rich and it is that has boosted the Labour and LD vote amongst graduates
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Overall, the results were considerably worse for the Conservatives than I had thought, yesterday afternoon. The party went from losing one sixth of its seats to one quarter. That said, it's not the kind of result the party was suffering in the 1990's.
Conservatives lost 44% of their seats in Wales which had an election that, unlike in England, covered all the country.
Surprising. Not effective use of second preferences from what looked like an anti tory majority.
Yes - over half the suporters of other candidates didn't bother to give a second preference. The fact that Labour opposed having a mayor at all was a handicap in standing for it, a bit like the LD difficulty in standing in PCC elections.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories.
The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.
Heaven help,us.
It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.
But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.
I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.
But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.
Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
Absolutely rightly.
As things stand, the LDs will gain 6 to 8 seats from the Conservatives in the South East.
If everything moves in the LDs favour, and they end up on 18-19% at the GE, then they *might* end up picking up 12-14 seats.
But that's - basically - a best possible scenario for the LDs, and a worst possible one for the Conservatives.
Now, I agree the Conservatives will likely lose another 2 or 3 in Scotland. And I'm sure Labour will pick up some.
But the Conservatives have a decent cushion. My 66% probability range is from a Con majority of 30 to Cons 20 short (but still largest party).
The most vulnerable seats for the Conservatives: Winchester, Cheltenham, C&W, Esher & Walton (maybe - might go back a bit next time as attentions will be split elsewhere), Lewes, Guildford, Wimbledon, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, and St Ives (maybe). Hazel Grove is a stretch target. So I expect 7-11 Lib Dem gains.
Beyond that it gets much harder for the Liberal Democrats and you're really looking at a Tory meltdown for them to do much better.
They don't have an easy path back to their pre GE2010 tally because the politics of the south-west of England have changed so much, so their hopes are really invested in posh/affluent spa-towns and liberal suburbia.
Sadly I agree with the posts in this thread. It is much harder for the LDs to win large numbers of Tory seats than it is for Lab, so LDs doing well is less of a threat (it isn't a by election), much as I wish that wasn't true. Although I disagreed with @Casino_Royale on his reasons why SWS won't fall I still think he is absolutely correct that it wont fall unless the LDs go up in the polls by at least another 10%. The LDs will be focusing on a much smaller group of targets that won't include SWS on these poll levels.
The Lib Dems have often done well at local level in Surrey and other parts of the commuter belt, without translating it into wins at Parliamentary level. I do think that dislike for the government at a cultural level gives them a better chance, but you're not going to see the whole of Surrey and M3 and M4 corridors turning yellow, any time soon.
5 of the top 25 Liberal Democrat target seats for the next general election held by the Tories are in Surrey
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
Oh, the rampaging hordes of graduates do have the skillsets; what they lack are the contacts. What Oxbridge offers are a network that can unlock doors, and an alma mater that will bubble your cv to the top even where you have no contacts. Just read the biographies of David Cameron, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson to see they did not win their early jobs via stiff competition, and nor did they have relevant vocational qualifications.
Famously, when Google took a proper look at where its best performers came from, it turned out not to be the famous schools (ie universities) they'd traditionally favoured. That enlightenment has yet to strike British HR departments who still favour Oxbridge then Russell Group and wherever the hiring managers got their degrees.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
That depends upon how you define middle class.
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
Reading @another_richard and @HYUFD private dialogue is like dipping back into the 1950s and watching a smoke filled talking heads debate on a black and white TV
"Class depends on where one was educated, or what sort of a home one can afford". What a load of old nonsense.
Educate as many as one can to a high standard it drags up society, a nation of fewer hooligans and reprobates. Who cares if all the Baristas have a Sociology degree from the University of Worcester? Good on them.
So if you don't go to university you're a hooligan or reprobate ?
And your barista with a sociology degree will also have tens of thousands in debt and missed out on three years earning opportunity compared to a barista who didn't go to university.
Miss Vance, that's quite bizarre, and in stark contrast to the widespread Ukraine flags I've seen here, and presumably are flying in many other countries too.
The ban also applies to Russian and USSR flags too.
It's an awkward choice. The day is supposed to be a sombre remembrance of the end of the worst nightmare in recent European history, and a reminder of a time when east and west were united. It would IMO be better if nobody tried to exploit the occasion by demonstrating about the current war, so not having any flags at all seems sensible if it could be done.
But inevitably they will, so maybe it would be better (and more consistent with freedom of expression) to let everyone turn up with whatever flags they want (except Nazi flags), and concentrate on preventing clashes between rival sympathisers. Ukrainian flags would undoubtedly dominate, even though the Russian expats recently put up a show too with a cavalcade of Z-cars, so the impression that Germany is largely sympathetic to Ukraine would prevail, without the need to wrestle with participants to take their flags away.
Let's hope they don't discover the music for their Russky videos.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
Oh, the rampaging hordes of graduates do have the skillsets; what they lack are the contacts. What Oxbridge offers are a network that can unlock doors, and an alma mater that will bubble your cv to the top even where you have no contacts. Just read the biographies of David Cameron, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson to see they did not win their early jobs via stiff competition, and nor did they have relevant vocational qualifications.
Famously, when Google took a proper look at where its best performers came from, it turned out not to be the famous schools (ie universities) they'd traditionally favoured. That enlightenment has yet to strike British HR departments who still favour Oxbridge then Russell Group and wherever the hiring managers got their degrees.
Oxbridge and the Russell Group take on the whole those in the top 10% of GCSE and A level results. No surprise therefore they produce the majority of the top 10% of earners.
Yes you might get a few tech whizkids who went elsewhere or did not even go to university but they are a minority
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
Working in a call centre can make you lower middle class while being a plumber or electrician makes you skilled working class. Even if earnings wise there is little difference and the latter even earns more than the former
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
I remember looking at a map a few years ago and being surprised by the way there was just one road leading to Canvey Island, where about 40,000 people live. If that road was blocked by an accident or a tree or something they wouldn't be able to get out.
That's true but equally they could put a couple of big guns on the south coast just beyond the camping shop and interdict maritime traffic down the Thames, so I don't think rUK would be foolish enough to try it.
Bit out of date. You mean lorry-mounted Neptunes.
Edit: it did have big guns before, though. 152mm in modern inches.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I think it's true that expanding higher education has led to disappointed expectations. Any society faces problems when graduates can't get the jobs they've been led to believe should follow from their getting a degree.
Though for those who want to 'smash society' a resentful graduate class might be deemed a good thing.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
Broadly, I'd define the middle class (in the British, not the American sense) as about 25% of the population. A lot of very ill-paid jobs don't involve manual labour.
This stirs a very dim memory of Are You Being Served? where the porter explains his higher wages than Mr Lucas as the penalty you pay for calling yourself middle-class.
A poor result for Labour in our council elections. All 48 seats up for grabs, and Labour lost seven seats, leaving a rump of only 29. All losses to Greens and Independents. Conservatives lost none, leaving them at a healthy two.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Overall, the results were considerably worse for the Conservatives than I had thought, yesterday afternoon. The party went from losing one sixth of its seats to one quarter. That said, it's not the kind of result the party was suffering in the 1990's.
Yes, the overall complexion has rather shifted. Losing that many councillors and a NEV down at 30% is actually quite bleak. And unlike most on here I don't think it's fixed for the next GE by dumping Johnson. He's a turn off for many but I think there are still lots of people voting Con because of him.
Therefore assuming "beergate" loses its "gate" when Durham police say no further action - which is what I expect - I'd say Starmer will be pretty happy with where things stand. People say there isn't the enthusiasm for Labour as there was with Blair in the mid 90s but so what. A landslide win is not the realistic goal.
I am in my Lake District home alone for three glorious weeks! Hooray!!!
Husband working in London. Eldest Son also working there. Youngest Son (just turned 24 - how the hell did that happen?!) has gone to London to spend time with friends then travel before starting his new job. Daughter is in Greece enjoying a well-earned holiday.
The weather is set fine and I can please myself with no pesky family to worry about.
NorthWest Electrics will be taking down an unnecessary electricity pole in the land I have acquired and the wooden poles will (a) provide the basis for some raised planting beds; and (b) allow me to move a Portakabin to its final location, to be turned - once suitably cladded with wood - into a summer house where I can rest after tending to my veg etc. It is of course stuffed full of rubbish which Husband insists "will come in useful one day" but he's not here is he? 🤫
Meanwhile I have created a sort of mini auricula theatre.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
Broadly, I'd define the middle class (in the British, not the American sense) as about 25% of the population. A lot of very ill-paid jobs don't involve manual labour.
This stirs a very dim memory of Are You Being Served? where the porter explains his higher wages than Mr Lucas as the penalty you pay for calling yourself middle-class.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
Broadly, I'd define the middle class (in the British, not the American sense) as about 25% of the population. A lot of very ill-paid jobs don't involve manual labour.
No, that is the upper middle class only.
The middle class including the lower middle class is about 50% of the population and including the skilled working class, many of whom own their own home, in the American sense it would be about 60 to 70% of the population.
A few "Home thoughts from abroad", now we have the final results.
Looking from the perspective of of the Lib Dems, it was a good, solid set of results, with a few outstanding wins, such as Somerset, Woking and Westmoreland. Clearly several formerly Lib Dem seats, e.g. Cheltenham, are set to return to the yellow column in the next House of Commons, and even 30 seats could prove crucial, especially if SNP losses were to bring the Lib Dems back to being the third party in Parliament, which would massively help their profile. Labour too can point to historic results in Wandsworth and Westminster, and clearly they have improved their position in Scotland, which opens up some interesting possibilities. Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares and they must be concerned that the nationalist wave is not advancing much beyond what they already hold and in some places is going backwards. The small gains for the Scottish Greens notwithstanding, the debacle of "Alba" demonstrates that there is only a very limited Nationalist coalition beyond the SNP itself. Nationalism is facing considerable electoral challenges, and the replacement of the Tories by Labour as the key challenger will make the task of the next SNP leader very hard indeed. That leader may not be that far off, if Holyrood gossip is to be believed.
In Aberdeenshire the Liberal Democrats, who already had their largest Scottish council group there, have made a gain and after the disappointment of failing to gain a North East list seat in the last election to the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances for gains in both the North East and the Highlands next time at both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster elections.
For the Conservatives the results are obviously someting of a nadir, and there is no doubt that many voters deeply loathe the Prime Minister and all his works. The party looks tired and the desparate ramping of their media supporters- the Mail and Express especially- simply looks ludicrous. Whereas humility ("we will learn the lessons") might seem weak to the bumptious cretins in CCHQ, it is far better than "Labour still can´t win" and a litany of smear tactics which actually do not have the impact away from Westminster that they hope for.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Lol, a game of two halves evidently..
‘Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares’ = +22 ‘The small gains for the Scottish Greens’ = +16
‘the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances’= +20 ‘Labour as the key challenger’= +20
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
Oh, the rampaging hordes of graduates do have the skillsets; what they lack are the contacts. What Oxbridge offers are a network that can unlock doors, and an alma mater that will bubble your cv to the top even where you have no contacts. Just read the biographies of David Cameron, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson to see they did not win their early jobs via stiff competition, and nor did they have relevant vocational qualifications.
Famously, when Google took a proper look at where its best performers came from, it turned out not to be the famous schools (ie universities) they'd traditionally favoured. That enlightenment has yet to strike British HR departments who still favour Oxbridge then Russell Group and wherever the hiring managers got their degrees.
Oxbridge and the Russell Group take on the whole those in the top 10% of GCSE and A level results. No surprise therefore they produce the majority of the top 10% of earners.
Yes you might get a few tech whizkids who went elsewhere or did not even go to university but they are a minority
Your occasional reminder that women beat men in secondary and tertiary educational attaimnment. Now, I wonder what happens in the jobs market...
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
If I were the Tories I would be heading straight to Newcastle Under Lyme to understand what was different there. Was Aaron Bell's opposition to Boris well known in the area or were other factors in play? For me, the most interesting result of all.
What is it with Vanilla that it keeps duplicating comments so it saves them on draft when you’ve already posted them? It’s really annoying.
This is not happening to me, although I have seen it. I'd be inclined to blame your browser so check it is not trying to update itself and then clear its cache (not cookies). Then go back to blaming Vanilla!
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
That depends upon how you define middle class.
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
Reading @another_richard and @HYUFD private dialogue is like dipping back into the 1950s and watching a smoke filled talking heads debate on a black and white TV
"Class depends on where one was educated, or what sort of a home one can afford". What a load of old nonsense.
Educate as many as one can to a high standard it drags up society, a nation of fewer hooligans and reprobates. Who cares if all the Baristas have a Sociology degree from the University of Worcester? Good on them.
So if you don't go to university you're a hooligan or reprobate ?
And your barista with a sociology degree will also have tens of thousands in debt and missed out on three years earning opportunity compared to a barista who didn't go to university.
No that is not my point at all. Those who chose to make their way in life by other positive means are welcome so to do
My point is that if 50% of the population want a higher education, they should be entitled to one, particularly if they are happy to take on the indebtedness. There debt is none of your (or my) business, even if all it leads to is a career flipping burgers.
Back in my day higher education was all paid for by the taxpayer. As a taxpayer I am happy to supplement for the education of the nation. It seems money better spent than on Johnson's legendary, legacy "spaffing" projects like Rwanda and Brexit. There always seems to be money for that old nonsense.
A few "Home thoughts from abroad", now we have the final results.
Looking from the perspective of of the Lib Dems, it was a good, solid set of results, with a few outstanding wins, such as Somerset, Woking and Westmoreland. Clearly several formerly Lib Dem seats, e.g. Cheltenham, are set to return to the yellow column in the next House of Commons, and even 30 seats could prove crucial, especially if SNP losses were to bring the Lib Dems back to being the third party in Parliament, which would massively help their profile. Labour too can point to historic results in Wandsworth and Westminster, and clearly they have improved their position in Scotland, which opens up some interesting possibilities. Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares and they must be concerned that the nationalist wave is not advancing much beyond what they already hold and in some places is going backwards. The small gains for the Scottish Greens notwithstanding, the debacle of "Alba" demonstrates that there is only a very limited Nationalist coalition beyond the SNP itself. Nationalism is facing considerable electoral challenges, and the replacement of the Tories by Labour as the key challenger will make the task of the next SNP leader very hard indeed. That leader may not be that far off, if Holyrood gossip is to be believed.
In Aberdeenshire the Liberal Democrats, who already had their largest Scottish council group there, have made a gain and after the disappointment of failing to gain a North East list seat in the last election to the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances for gains in both the North East and the Highlands next time at both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster elections.
For the Conservatives the results are obviously someting of a nadir, and there is no doubt that many voters deeply loathe the Prime Minister and all his works. The party looks tired and the desparate ramping of their media supporters- the Mail and Express especially- simply looks ludicrous. Whereas humility ("we will learn the lessons") might seem weak to the bumptious cretins in CCHQ, it is far better than "Labour still can´t win" and a litany of smear tactics which actually do not have the impact away from Westminster that they hope for.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Lol, a game of two halves evidently..
‘Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares’ = +22 ‘The small gains for the Scottish Greens’ = +16
‘the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances’= +20 ‘Labour as the key challenger’= +20
Very, very weird airbrushing of the Scottish results there. Cicero is normally someone I take seriously on here, but that was a very strange post.
On top of the losses, the "Party of the Union", led by "the Minister for the Union" himself. Has. Come third in Scotland, fourth in Wales, and overseen the election of a Sinn Fein First Minister. One Nation indeed.
Have we seen anything more on the Russian Frigate (possibly) hit by a Ukrainian Missile? I've seen a few more reports in the media, but nobody seems sure what happened.
No one has seen the frigate
But everything is still circumstantial. There's a video of a frigate burning doing the rounds that could be from a wargame sim package.
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
John Howard did in Australia in 2007
The relevance of that comment is…?
There's always a first time.
For a PM to lose his seat or for HYUFD to say something relevant?
On top of the losses, the "Party of the Union", led by "the Minister for the Union" himself. Has. Come third in Scotland, fourth in Wales, and overseen the election of a Sinn Fein First Minister. One Nation indeed.
Yeah, Boris is a one-nation PM. The trouble is, that nation is Mercia.
If I were the Tories I would be heading straight to Newcastle Under Lyme to understand what was different there. Was Aaron Bell's opposition to Boris well known in the area or were other factors in play? For me, the most interesting result of all.
It was not too dissimilar to much of the Brexit voting Midlands where the Conservatives also made gains.
Labour failed to gain a single new council in the Midlands yesterday, only in London, the South and North, Wales and Scotland
Looking back, very satisfied with Labour's West Yorkshire results.
Of 127 seats up for grabs, Labour won 83, +5 on 2018's haul, so Labour won a touch over 10% of the opposition's defences, comparing well to 2.5% across England.
But that small, +5, return of seats, when compared to last year, suggest that Labour could turn at least 5, perhaps more, seats red in.a GE than had one been held l2 months ago, at least 4 more than are currently Con held. I've not even checked the Bradford or Leeds Con held marginals in that.
So for every single council seat gained in this round the conversion rate could readily be >1 parliamentary constituency in a General Election!
I don't think this is universally true, but the ward gains -> possible GE gains conversion ratio in GM (where I didn't much see any Labour advance), in Cumberland, perhaps across other bits of the North, is a generous rate and yesterday's results probably presage a few dozen Labour GE gains in just a subset of England.
I'm also of the opinion that, although there will be swing back, we aren't yet at the end of mid-term nor at the peak Labour leads that swing back will take effect from.
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
John Howard did in Australia in 2007
The relevance of that comment is…?
There's always a first time.
For a PM to lose his seat or for HYUFD to say something relevant?
Our friend from Epping makes relevant comments on polling figures more often than not.
A few "Home thoughts from abroad", now we have the final results.
Looking from the perspective of of the Lib Dems, it was a good, solid set of results, with a few outstanding wins, such as Somerset, Woking and Westmoreland. Clearly several formerly Lib Dem seats, e.g. Cheltenham, are set to return to the yellow column in the next House of Commons, and even 30 seats could prove crucial, especially if SNP losses were to bring the Lib Dems back to being the third party in Parliament, which would massively help their profile. Labour too can point to historic results in Wandsworth and Westminster, and clearly they have improved their position in Scotland, which opens up some interesting possibilities. Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares and they must be concerned that the nationalist wave is not advancing much beyond what they already hold and in some places is going backwards. The small gains for the Scottish Greens notwithstanding, the debacle of "Alba" demonstrates that there is only a very limited Nationalist coalition beyond the SNP itself. Nationalism is facing considerable electoral challenges, and the replacement of the Tories by Labour as the key challenger will make the task of the next SNP leader very hard indeed. That leader may not be that far off, if Holyrood gossip is to be believed.
In Aberdeenshire the Liberal Democrats, who already had their largest Scottish council group there, have made a gain and after the disappointment of failing to gain a North East list seat in the last election to the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances for gains in both the North East and the Highlands next time at both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster elections.
For the Conservatives the results are obviously someting of a nadir, and there is no doubt that many voters deeply loathe the Prime Minister and all his works. The party looks tired and the desparate ramping of their media supporters- the Mail and Express especially- simply looks ludicrous. Whereas humility ("we will learn the lessons") might seem weak to the bumptious cretins in CCHQ, it is far better than "Labour still can´t win" and a litany of smear tactics which actually do not have the impact away from Westminster that they hope for.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Lol, a game of two halves evidently..
‘Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares’ = +22 ‘The small gains for the Scottish Greens’ = +16
‘the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances’= +20 ‘Labour as the key challenger’= +20
Very, very weird airbrushing of the Scottish results there. Cicero is normally someone I take seriously on here, but that was a very strange post.
SGs have ended up with 35 - so 'small' in absolute, not relative, terms. Big impact in Glasgow for instance.
Also depends what your comparator is for losses/gains. Graun (no friend to the SNP) has +62 for the SNP, but ignorantly conflates the SGs and the rUKGs. The National is evidently using a different comparator.
Have we seen anything more on the Russian Frigate (possibly) hit by a Ukrainian Missile? I've seen a few more reports in the media, but nobody seems sure what happened.
No one has seen the frigate
But everything is still circumstantial. There's a video of a frigate burning doing the rounds that could be from a wargame sim package.
Perhaps it was for this that a pocket ship was she For in Davy Jones’ pocket she rests most ingloriously As she rusts beneath the rolling, bowling As she rusts beneath the rolling sea.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
That depends upon how you define middle class.
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
Reading @another_richard and @HYUFD private dialogue is like dipping back into the 1950s and watching a smoke filled talking heads debate on a black and white TV
"Class depends on where one was educated, or what sort of a home one can afford". What a load of old nonsense.
Educate as many as one can to a high standard it drags up society, a nation of fewer hooligans and reprobates. Who cares if all the Baristas have a Sociology degree from the University of Worcester? Good on them.
The baristas might mind a bit if they are not earning much.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
Working in a call centre can make you lower middle class while being a plumber or electrician makes you skilled working class. Even if earnings wise there is little difference and the latter even earns more than the former
The joke, for those who like their humour… dark is that just as the mass move to university education happened, the idea that class was based on what you did changed.
The plumber who runs his own business - big house, Range Rover, 3 holidays a year - is now posher than the call centre shift manger.
He is still socially behind the barristers, but not the baristas.
The key is that working with your hands in “trade” is no longer the issue. It’s all about the money.
A friends son wasn’t academic, so he is not a high end welder in the boat yards - a titanium specialist apparently. Got a house, getting married. Quite a few contemporaries from school are still staying at Hotel Mum & Dad.
The key these days is often a mix of “material” skills plus being numerate and able to digest information easily - a plumber now needs lots of technical knowledge and maths skills to design a system that functions well for example.
Pure book work or pure manual skill won’t get you far.
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
John Howard did in Australia in 2007
The relevance of that comment is…?
There's always a first time.
For a PM to lose his seat or for HYUFD to say something relevant?
Howard was a PM who lost his seat just not a British one
One other seat that may pull a surprise is Hitchen & Harpenden. In 2019 the LibDems pulled back into a clear second place and reduced the Con maj to under 7K and the the Yellow Peril share from 10.5% to 35.5%.
The Con Harpenden results yesterday were also appalling. Local MP Bim Afolami will be looking over his shoulder.
What is it with Vanilla that it keeps duplicating comments so it saves them on draft when you’ve already posted them? It’s really annoying.
It does that for me too. Many of my posts start with three saved dots, something I save instead of some ridiculous deleted post that unexpectedly returns.
Sometimes I forget. It is very annoying, both for me and those having to read my nonsense.
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
John Howard did in Australia in 2007
The relevance of that comment is…?
There's always a first time.
For a PM to lose his seat or for HYUFD to say something relevant?
Our friend from Epping makes relevant comments on polling figures more often than not.
A few "Home thoughts from abroad", now we have the final results.
Looking from the perspective of of the Lib Dems, it was a good, solid set of results, with a few outstanding wins, such as Somerset, Woking and Westmoreland. Clearly several formerly Lib Dem seats, e.g. Cheltenham, are set to return to the yellow column in the next House of Commons, and even 30 seats could prove crucial, especially if SNP losses were to bring the Lib Dems back to being the third party in Parliament, which would massively help their profile. Labour too can point to historic results in Wandsworth and Westminster, and clearly they have improved their position in Scotland, which opens up some interesting possibilities. Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares and they must be concerned that the nationalist wave is not advancing much beyond what they already hold and in some places is going backwards. The small gains for the Scottish Greens notwithstanding, the debacle of "Alba" demonstrates that there is only a very limited Nationalist coalition beyond the SNP itself. Nationalism is facing considerable electoral challenges, and the replacement of the Tories by Labour as the key challenger will make the task of the next SNP leader very hard indeed. That leader may not be that far off, if Holyrood gossip is to be believed.
In Aberdeenshire the Liberal Democrats, who already had their largest Scottish council group there, have made a gain and after the disappointment of failing to gain a North East list seat in the last election to the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances for gains in both the North East and the Highlands next time at both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster elections.
For the Conservatives the results are obviously someting of a nadir, and there is no doubt that many voters deeply loathe the Prime Minister and all his works. The party looks tired and the desparate ramping of their media supporters- the Mail and Express especially- simply looks ludicrous. Whereas humility ("we will learn the lessons") might seem weak to the bumptious cretins in CCHQ, it is far better than "Labour still can´t win" and a litany of smear tactics which actually do not have the impact away from Westminster that they hope for.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Lol, a game of two halves evidently..
‘Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares’ = +22 ‘The small gains for the Scottish Greens’ = +16
‘the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances’= +20 ‘Labour as the key challenger’= +20
Very, very weird airbrushing of the Scottish results there. Cicero is normally someone I take seriously on here, but that was a very strange post.
Also depends what your comparator is for losses/gains. Graun (no friend to the SNP) has +62 for the SNP, but ignorantly conflates the SGs and the rUKGs.
The good thing about the Graun is that it explains itself. There's a small article on there this morning telling us why different outlets have different gain/loss numbers, which is very useful. Agree on the SG/GPEW. They are entirely separate and should be treated as such.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
Oh, the rampaging hordes of graduates do have the skillsets; what they lack are the contacts. What Oxbridge offers are a network that can unlock doors, and an alma mater that will bubble your cv to the top even where you have no contacts. Just read the biographies of David Cameron, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson to see they did not win their early jobs via stiff competition, and nor did they have relevant vocational qualifications.
Famously, when Google took a proper look at where its best performers came from, it turned out not to be the famous schools (ie universities) they'd traditionally favoured. That enlightenment has yet to strike British HR departments who still favour Oxbridge then Russell Group and wherever the hiring managers got their degrees.
Oxbridge and the Russell Group take on the whole those in the top 10% of GCSE and A level results. No surprise therefore they produce the majority of the top 10% of earners.
Yes you might get a few tech whizkids who went elsewhere or did not even go to university but they are a minority
Your occasional reminder that women beat men in secondary and tertiary educational attaimnment. Now, I wonder what happens in the jobs market...
Women earn more than men now on average until they have children and then they often tend to go part time rather than full time if they continue working
Looking back, very satisfied with Labour's West Yorkshire results.
Of 127 seats up for grabs, Labour won 83, +5 on 2018's haul, so Labour won a touch over 10% of the opposition's defences, comparing well to 2.5% across England.
But that small, +5, return of seats, when compared to last year, suggest that Labour could turn at least 5, perhaps more, seats red in.a GE than had one been held l2 months ago, at least 4 more than are currently Con held. I've not even checked the Bradford or Leeds Con held marginals in that.
So for every single council seat gained in this round the conversion rate could readily be >1 parliamentary constituency in a General Election!
I don't think this is universally true, but the ward gains -> possible GE gains conversion ratio in GM (where I didn't much see any Labour advance), in Cumberland, perhaps across other bits of the North, is a generous rate and yesterday's results probably presage a few dozen Labour GE gains in just a subset of England.
I'm also of the opinion that, although there will be swing back, we aren't yet at the end of mid-term nor at the peak Labour leads that swing back will take effect from.
It's almost as if "the North" isn't one homogeneous place.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
Working in a call centre can make you lower middle class while being a plumber or electrician makes you skilled working class. Even if earnings wise there is little difference and the latter even earns more than the former
In which case why do we separate them out like that? As I think you are right that is how many people would classify those two jobs, but it seems objectively silly to me.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
That depends upon how you define middle class.
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
Reading @another_richard and @HYUFD private dialogue is like dipping back into the 1950s and watching a smoke filled talking heads debate on a black and white TV
"Class depends on where one was educated, or what sort of a home one can afford". What a load of old nonsense.
Educate as many as one can to a high standard it drags up society, a nation of fewer hooligans and reprobates. Who cares if all the Baristas have a Sociology degree from the University of Worcester? Good on them.
So if you don't go to university you're a hooligan or reprobate ?
And your barista with a sociology degree will also have tens of thousands in debt and missed out on three years earning opportunity compared to a barista who didn't go to university.
No that is not my point at all. Those who chose to make their way in life by other positive means are welcome so to do
My point is that if 50% of the population want a higher education, they should be entitled to one, particularly if they are happy to take on the indebtedness. There debt is none of your (or my) business, even if all it leads to is a career flipping burgers.
Back in my day higher education was all paid for by the taxpayer. As a taxpayer I am happy to supplement for the education of the nation. It seems money better spent than on Johnson's legendary, legacy "spaffing" projects like Rwanda and Brexit. There always seems to be money for that old nonsense.
I hate to disillusion you but the taxpayer is still funding universities. The system is bust and will land back on all of us as the loans dont perform.
I’m still emptying crumbs out the toaster from the previous several hundred times this has been said.
I'm predicting his downfall somewhere between 5 minutes from now and the heat death of the universe, and I stand by that prediction.
Today is of course celebrated round the world as Ishmael Calls Peak Boris day. Which was pretty clearly there or thereabouts even if his calls of Trough Boris have been a bit flaky.
I am in my Lake District home alone for three glorious weeks! Hooray!!!
Husband working in London. Eldest Son also working there. Youngest Son (just turned 24 - how the hell did that happen?!) has gone to London to spend time with friends then travel before starting his new job. Daughter is in Greece enjoying a well-earned holiday.
The weather is set fine and I can please myself with no pesky family to worry about.
NorthWest Electrics will be taking down an unnecessary electricity pole in the land I have acquired and the wooden poles will (a) provide the basis for some raised planting beds; and (b) allow me to move a Portakabin to its final location, to be turned - once suitably cladded with wood - into a summer house where I can rest after tending to my veg etc. It is of course stuffed full of rubbish which Husband insists "will come in useful one day" but he's not here is he? 🤫
Meanwhile I have created a sort of mini auricula theatre.
And the wisteria is beginning to bloom.
Useful hint for getting rid of old tools and wood (with permission ...) - phone up the local "Men's Shed". The local one turned up with estate car and trailer and cleared my late dad's workshop and attic for me once I had picked what I wanted. There's a fair chance the stuff will go to good use.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
That’s bananas.
Class distinctions have always been bananas! In some cultures being a merchant put you bottom of the pile apparently.
I'm sure some would argue any job where you spend most of it sat down would count as middle class, even if it was low paid, if they focus on physicality of work.
If I were the Tories I would be heading straight to Newcastle Under Lyme to understand what was different there. Was Aaron Bell's opposition to Boris well known in the area or were other factors in play? For me, the most interesting result of all.
For about the fourth time
It happened in Cannock as well.
And in Tamworth the needle barely moved - one loss to an independent.
What is it with Vanilla that it keeps duplicating comments so it saves them on draft when you’ve already posted them? It’s really annoying.
It does that for me too. Many of my posts start with three saved dots, something I save instead of some ridiculous deleted post that unexpectedly returns.
Sometimes I forget. It is very annoying, both for me and those having to read my nonsense.
That is a separate issue. Vanilla is over-aggressive in automatically saving drafts, presumably a relic of the days when computers and internet connections would crash frequently. I believe this can be tuned so you might have a word with @rcs1000 when he next drops in.
Caching messages even after they have been posted is different.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
So Keir will be leading by example then ?
He didn't lie to parliament about what he did in no. 10.
He set the bar, let's see what happens when he is asked in Parlt. as he inevitably will be,.
He'll do the same as Bojjo and Sturgeon did when breaking their own rules and say it was somehow different and it's time to move on.
Multiple breaches while a minister of the Crown, at a time when the rules were severe?
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
Working in a call centre can make you lower middle class while being a plumber or electrician makes you skilled working class. Even if earnings wise there is little difference and the latter even earns more than the former
In which case why do we separate them out like that? As I think you are right that is how many people would classify those two jobs, but it seems objectively silly to me.
It's a vestige of a gone time than needs to be swept away. We don't need HYUFD's caste system, we need housing and jobs with dignified pay. Having some prat running around slotting us into imaginary social classes helps nobody.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
That’s bananas.
Class distinctions have always been bananas! In some cultures being a merchant put you bottom of the pile apparently.
I'm sure some would argue any job where you spend most of it sat down would count as middle class, even if it was low paid, if they focus on physicality of work.
Really? That’s nuts.
(What about me? Teaching you spend most of your time standing up…)
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
That’s bananas.
Class distinctions have always been bananas! In some cultures being a merchant put you bottom of the pile apparently.
I'm sure some would argue any job where you spend most of it sat down would count as middle class, even if it was low paid, if they focus on physicality of work.
Have we seen anything more on the Russian Frigate (possibly) hit by a Ukrainian Missile? I've seen a few more reports in the media, but nobody seems sure what happened.
Well, it's the middle of the day in the Black Sea now so probably file it along with the Ghost of Kyiv, those F-16s from last week and 50 Russian helicopters destroyed on the ground.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
That’s bananas.
Class distinctions have always been bananas! In some cultures being a merchant put you bottom of the pile apparently.
I'm sure some would argue any job where you spend most of it sat down would count as middle class, even if it was low paid, if they focus on physicality of work.
Middle class: shower before work.
Working class: bath after.
So you’re saying the key determinant of being middle class is you like a douche?
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
Working in a call centre can make you lower middle class while being a plumber or electrician makes you skilled working class. Even if earnings wise there is little difference and the latter even earns more than the former
In which case why do we separate them out like that? As I think you are right that is how many people would classify those two jobs, but it seems objectively silly to me.
The plumber will be making more.
You would be horrified, I think, to see how little some “graduate” jobs are paid.
Outside the world of first tier, white collar work (Russel Group or equivalent, 2.1 or 1st, only, please) there is a series of layers to the employment cake.
And it’s definitely not Herman Miller chairs all the way down.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
Working in a call centre can make you lower middle class while being a plumber or electrician makes you skilled working class. Even if earnings wise there is little difference and the latter even earns more than the former
The joke, for those who like their humour… dark is that just as the mass move to university education happened, the idea that class was based on what you did changed.
The plumber who runs his own business - big house, Range Rover, 3 holidays a year - is now posher than the call centre shift manger.
He is still socially behind the barristers, but not the baristas.
The key is that working with your hands in “trade” is no longer the issue. It’s all about the money.
A friends son wasn’t academic, so he is not a high end welder in the boat yards - a titanium specialist apparently. Got a house, getting married. Quite a few contemporaries from school are still staying at Hotel Mum & Dad.
The key these days is often a mix of “material” skills plus being numerate and able to digest information easily - a plumber now needs lots of technical knowledge and maths skills to design a system that functions well for example.
Pure book work or pure manual skill won’t get you far.
No he isn't posher, as being posh is based still on education level and what class of family you were born into.
If the call centre shift manager is a university graduate born into a middle class family he is still posher than the plumber who owns his own successful business and big house even if the plumber is richer than them if the plumber was born into a working class family and is a non graduate.
The Queen and Prince Charles and the Duke of Norfolk too are still obviously posher than a billionaire born into a working class family, even if that billionaire is much richer than them.
Posh in British terms is not just the same thing as how rich you are and never has been
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
So Keir will be leading by example then ?
He didn't lie to parliament about what he did in no. 10.
He set the bar, let's see what happens when he is asked in Parlt. as he inevitably will be,.
He'll do the same as Bojjo and Sturgeon did when breaking their own rules and say it was somehow different and it's time to move on.
Multiple breaches while a minister of the Crown, at a time when the rules were severe?
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
I also disagree the middle class is only the highest 10% of earners.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
So you think that working in a call centre makes someone middle class? Or scanning groceries at a supermarket checkout?
Working in a call centre can make you lower middle class while being a plumber or electrician makes you skilled working class. Even if earnings wise there is little difference and the latter even earns more than the former
The joke, for those who like their humour… dark is that just as the mass move to university education happened, the idea that class was based on what you did changed.
The plumber who runs his own business - big house, Range Rover, 3 holidays a year - is now posher than the call centre shift manger.
He is still socially behind the barristers, but not the baristas.
The key is that working with your hands in “trade” is no longer the issue. It’s all about the money.
A friends son wasn’t academic, so he is not a high end welder in the boat yards - a titanium specialist apparently. Got a house, getting married. Quite a few contemporaries from school are still staying at Hotel Mum & Dad.
The key these days is often a mix of “material” skills plus being numerate and able to digest information easily - a plumber now needs lots of technical knowledge and maths skills to design a system that functions well for example.
Pure book work or pure manual skill won’t get you far.
I was surprised more plumbers/ electricians round my way don't have some sort of pooled admin support agreement with like minded colleagues - it seems a right hassle that some of them have to try to handle enquiries and paperwork themselves, whilst also trying to be out and about on jobs. I suppose for one man band's it might be prohibitive to pay into such a thing, or be worried about others in the group sniping work, but through no fault of their own some can struggle with timely responses to things which may affect what work they get.
Comments
The best estimate I can find is the total no of councillors down by 10% in 20 years.
Does anyone have an accurate number?
It’s more to do with demographic change.
The anger is real.
Welcome to the real world, rather than one designed by ad execs.
The middle class is defined now as about 50% of the population ie upper middle class ABs and lower middle class C1s. You can be AB even if not in the top 10% of earners if a professional still and C1 basically as long as you have a job which is not manual labour
What I'm against is the financial abuse of encouraging teenagers to get themselves into tens of thousands of debt for something which gives them a sense of entitlement but which is often sod all use.
Useful to know though, no matter what someone says just pick a counter examine from anywhere on planet earth. At least until the aliens of proxima centauri tell us the details of their constituency results.
In 2019, they were about a fairly narrow niche of liberal affluent europhile suburbia. The wider base they had in 1992-2010 hadn't forgiven them for coalition.
North Shropshire was much more significant a by-election than Chesham and Amersham from that point of view. There are a lot of places where Labour, bless them, can't win, but the yellow team can.
OK, Libs are still going to depend on targeting, and pure sandal leather effort to win seats, but the map looks a lot more open than it did a while back.
"Class depends on where one was educated, or what sort of a home one can afford". What a load of old nonsense.
Educate as many as one can to a high standard it drags up society, a nation of fewer hooligans and reprobates. Who cares if all the Baristas have a Sociology degree from the University of Worcester? Good on them.
That's not to say things will get better for the Conservatives - they might do but they could also get worse.
However you are still part of a cultural educated elite as a university graduate even if you do not become rich and it is that has boosted the Labour and LD vote amongst graduates
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
Famously, when Google took a proper look at where its best performers came from, it turned out not to be the famous schools (ie universities) they'd traditionally favoured. That enlightenment has yet to strike British HR departments who still favour Oxbridge then Russell Group and wherever the hiring managers got their degrees.
And your barista with a sociology degree will also have tens of thousands in debt and missed out on three years earning opportunity compared to a barista who didn't go to university.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1m_ysiV4uVY
(or, more straightforwardly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wL1HnDGTAK8&t=7)
I'd add the 1977 version, but it is music murder:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Syv_6BFgOLE
Can someone with a time machine go back and assassinate the inventor of the Wah-wah?
https://web.archive.org/web/20170517142900/https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/britains-hated-man-isnt-hateful/#
Yes you might get a few tech whizkids who went elsewhere or did not even go to university but they are a minority
Therefore assuming "beergate" loses its "gate" when Durham police say no further action - which is what I expect - I'd say Starmer will be pretty happy with where things stand. People say there isn't the enthusiasm for Labour as there was with Blair in the mid 90s but so what. A landslide win is not the realistic goal.
Croydon, Harrow and Enfield.
Husband working in London. Eldest Son also working there. Youngest Son (just turned 24 - how the hell did that happen?!) has gone to London to spend time with friends then travel before starting his new job. Daughter is in Greece enjoying a well-earned holiday.
The weather is set fine and I can please myself with no pesky family to worry about.
NorthWest Electrics will be taking down an unnecessary electricity pole in the land I have acquired and the wooden poles will (a) provide the basis for some raised planting beds; and (b) allow me to move a Portakabin to its final location, to be turned - once suitably cladded with wood - into a summer house where I can rest after tending to my veg etc. It is of course stuffed full of rubbish which Husband insists "will come in useful one day" but he's not here is he? 🤫
Meanwhile I have created a sort of mini auricula theatre.
And the wisteria is beginning to bloom.
The middle class including the lower middle class is about 50% of the population and including the skilled working class, many of whom own their own home, in the American sense it would be about 60 to 70% of the population.
‘Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares’ = +22
‘The small gains for the Scottish Greens’ = +16
‘the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances’= +20
‘Labour as the key challenger’= +20
Now, I wonder what happens in the jobs market...
My point is that if 50% of the population want a higher education, they should be entitled to one, particularly if they are happy to take on the indebtedness. There debt is none of your (or my) business, even if all it leads to is a career flipping burgers.
Back in my day higher education was all paid for by the taxpayer. As a taxpayer I am happy to supplement for the education of the nation. It seems money better spent than on Johnson's legendary, legacy "spaffing" projects like Rwanda and Brexit. There always seems to be money for that old nonsense.
Has. Come third in Scotland, fourth in Wales, and overseen the election of a Sinn Fein First Minister.
One Nation indeed.
But everything is still circumstantial. There's a video of a frigate burning doing the rounds that could be from a wargame sim package.
Labour failed to gain a single new council in the Midlands yesterday, only in London, the South and North, Wales and Scotland
Of 127 seats up for grabs, Labour won 83, +5 on 2018's haul, so Labour won a touch over 10% of the opposition's defences, comparing well to 2.5% across England.
But that small, +5, return of seats, when compared to last year, suggest that Labour could turn at least 5, perhaps more, seats red in.a GE than had one been held l2 months ago, at least 4 more than are currently Con held. I've not even checked the Bradford or Leeds Con held marginals in that.
So for every single council seat gained in this round the conversion rate could readily be >1 parliamentary constituency in a General Election!
I don't think this is universally true, but the ward gains -> possible GE gains conversion ratio in GM (where I didn't much see any Labour advance), in Cumberland, perhaps across other bits of the North, is a generous rate and yesterday's results probably presage a few dozen Labour GE gains in just a subset of England.
I'm also of the opinion that, although there will be swing back, we aren't yet at the end of mid-term nor at the peak Labour leads that swing back will take effect from.
Also depends what your comparator is for losses/gains. Graun (no friend to the SNP) has +62 for the SNP, but ignorantly conflates the SGs and the rUKGs. The National is evidently using a different comparator.
SNP - 453 seats (up 22)
Labour - 282 seats (up 20)
Tories - 214 seats (down 62)
Independents - 152 seats (down 16)
LibDems - 87 seats (up 20)
Greens - 35 seats (up 16)
For in Davy Jones’ pocket she rests most ingloriously
As she rusts beneath the rolling, bowling
As she rusts beneath the rolling sea.
The plumber who runs his own business - big house, Range Rover, 3 holidays a year - is now posher than the call centre shift manger.
He is still socially behind the barristers, but not the baristas.
The key is that working with your hands in “trade” is no longer the issue. It’s all about the money.
A friends son wasn’t academic, so he is not a high end welder in the boat yards - a titanium specialist apparently. Got a house, getting married. Quite a few contemporaries from school are still staying at Hotel Mum & Dad.
The key these days is often a mix of “material” skills plus being numerate and able to digest information easily - a plumber now needs lots of technical knowledge and maths skills to design a system that functions well for example.
Pure book work or pure manual skill won’t get you far.
The Con Harpenden results yesterday were also appalling. Local MP Bim Afolami will be looking over his shoulder.
Sometimes I forget. It is very annoying, both for me and those having to read my nonsense.
Agree on the SG/GPEW. They are entirely separate and should be treated as such.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/aug/29/women-in-20s-earn-more-men-same-age-study-finds
No - but it isn’t usually a problem. Just was this time.
Can’t be my browser as it happens on iPhone, iPad and Windows. Must be a system glitch.
Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
CCHQ delighted with Beergate. They see it as most successful political attack in living memory
I'm sure some would argue any job where you spend most of it sat down would count as middle class, even if it was low paid, if they focus on physicality of work.
It happened in Cannock as well.
And in Tamworth the needle barely moved - one loss to an independent.
It’s about the changing face of Staffordshire.
Caching messages even after they have been posted is different.
(What about me? Teaching you spend most of your time standing up…)
Working class: bath after.
Explains Boris Johnson’s appeal…
You would be horrified, I think, to see how little some “graduate” jobs are paid.
Outside the world of first tier, white collar work (Russel Group or equivalent, 2.1 or 1st, only, please) there is a series of layers to the employment cake.
And it’s definitely not Herman Miller chairs all the way down.
If the call centre shift manager is a university graduate born into a middle class family he is still posher than the plumber who owns his own successful business and big house even if the plumber is richer than them if the plumber was born into a working class family and is a non graduate.
The Queen and Prince Charles and the Duke of Norfolk too are still obviously posher than a billionaire born into a working class family, even if that billionaire is much richer than them.
Posh in British terms is not just the same thing as how rich you are and never has been
and you still havent answered the question